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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent coverage.

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Speaker 3: That is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the show everything. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday.

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Speaker 2: We have an amazing show for everybody today. What do

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Speaker 2: we have, Crystal, Indeed we do.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to show remotely because my kiddos had first

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Speaker 1: day of schools. I had to be mommy first this morning,

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Speaker 1: but we nevertheless have a wonderful show for you. We

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Speaker 1: have some really interesting stories I think about the state

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Speaker 1: of our culture and our nation, starting with numbers on

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Speaker 1: real estate and especially apartment buildings and a potential coming reckoning,

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Speaker 1: so we will get into all of that. Also some

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Speaker 1: fascinating new numbers from Gallop about the widening polarization and

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Speaker 1: divides between the two parties on a whole variety of issues.

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Speaker 4: Kind of interesting.

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Speaker 1: Which issues have become the most divided over the past

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Speaker 1: number of years. We have a potential new opponent of

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden in the Democratic primary that the media is

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Speaker 1: actually taking seriously. We'll tell you about that possibly huge

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Speaker 1: breakthrough in terms of what is being described as the

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Speaker 1: Holy Grail of energy. This is something we covered before.

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Speaker 1: They've been able to recreate that fusion energy generation, so

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Speaker 1: we'll break that down for you. And it seems that

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Speaker 1: more and more employers, including the federal government led by

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Speaker 1: Joe Biden, are pushing their workers back into the office

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Speaker 1: after quite a while where workers have been working more

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Speaker 1: remotely and hybrid So we will talk to you about

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Speaker 1: what all of that means before we get to any

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Speaker 1: of that, though, Thank you guys so much for what

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Speaker 1: you've been enabling in terms of our interviews. Really enjoyed

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Speaker 1: getting to sort of spar a little bit and press

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Speaker 1: one of the Biden representatives that we had on set yesterday,

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Speaker 1: which is something we honestly have never really been able

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Speaker 1: to do before.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right, we're going to continue to have him back.

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Speaker 2: I'm excited to spar. I think with him just a

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Speaker 2: little bit more. We've got to get some more into

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Speaker 2: the weeds. We've also got some very interesting guests that

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Speaker 2: I'm excited to debut here with you Crystal to the show.

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Speaker 2: We can't reveal yet some of our methods, but I

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Speaker 2: think people are going to enjoy it. Once again, it

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Speaker 2: is only a testament to some of the shocking people

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Speaker 2: who do agree to come on the show to what

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Speaker 2: has been built here by our audience. So Breakingpoints dot Com,

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Speaker 2: if you are able, we want to take a stake

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Speaker 2: a step and actually look at some of the big

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Speaker 2: macro problems that are facing the country. And one of

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Speaker 2: the ones that we hear from you guys all the

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Speaker 2: time is about housing. And so it's not just though

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Speaker 2: that housing market and how it's affected your own personal life.

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Speaker 2: It really also relies on the commercial property sector. And

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Speaker 2: something that Crystal particular and I have been really looking

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Speaker 2: into is about the debt bomb that could come as

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Speaker 2: a result of work from home and the economic changes

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Speaker 2: that have come since the pandemic. So let's go ahead

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Speaker 2: and put this up there on the screen. We're beginning

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Speaker 2: to see this now materialized in the marketplace as interest

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Speaker 2: rates begin to rise. What you guys can see in

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Speaker 2: front of you is a piece from the Wall Street

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Speaker 2: Journal with so two very important parts. One is called

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Speaker 2: quote the real estate haven turning perilous, with roughree one

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Speaker 2: trillion dollars coming due.

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Speaker 3: You can see there that.

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Speaker 2: The outstanding multi family mortgages from the Mortgage Bankers Association

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Speaker 2: has reached well above the normal level of twenty ten,

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Speaker 2: increased throughout the late twenty tens, but has now come

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Speaker 2: to almost two trillion dollars. What you can also see

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Speaker 2: in the costly loans chart there, which is on the

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Speaker 2: right for those who are watching, is that the apartment

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Speaker 2: mortgage rate is dramatically higher than the ten year treasury yield,

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Speaker 2: somewhere between the five and the six percentage that just

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Speaker 2: on average, and of course increased interest rates are continuing

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Speaker 2: to put pressure on that. And so what they call

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Speaker 2: this is that it's a trillion dollars coming doing loans.

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Speaker 2: Nobody knows if these are actually going to be able

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Speaker 2: to even make them. Many of these quote private real

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Speaker 2: estate firms are funded mostly by floating rate debt and

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Speaker 2: small investor cash now have even bigger competitors in the

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Speaker 2: multifamily market. Some paid high prices based on rosy expectations

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Speaker 2: of steep rent increases for years to come, and now

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Speaker 2: they are making They are having trouble making the math work.

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Speaker 2: They have already shown that there's a huge amount of

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Speaker 2: acquisition happening in the space, and in some cases crystal

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Speaker 2: these loans are not even be able to be acquired

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Speaker 2: by some banks and some purchases out there. So this

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Speaker 2: could have a massive impact on our economy and in

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Speaker 2: our banking sector in particular.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right.

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Speaker 1: So there are a few categories of commercial real estate

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Speaker 1: that are really in trouble right now. One that we've

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Speaker 1: talked about before and which has gotten a lot of

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Speaker 1: attention is office buildings. Understandable people are working remotely more now.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the vacancy rates are extremely high, and so

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Speaker 1: you have a lot of office buildings with you know,

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Speaker 1: high vacancy rates, much lower valuations, and with interest rates

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Speaker 1: rising because of the FED. You know, this not only

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Speaker 1: ups the mortgage rates for you know, residential homes where

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Speaker 1: people who are just buying homes, This also really hikes

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Speaker 1: interest rates for all sorts of commercial properties. So you

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Speaker 1: have that as a very obvious problem, and a lot

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Speaker 1: of that debt coming do what's been described as a

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Speaker 1: debt bomb sort of looming over all of that. But

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Speaker 1: the second most troubled class is actually apartment buildings, and

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Speaker 1: this has escaped some notice, but traditionally this class has

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Speaker 1: been seen.

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Speaker 4: As very sort of solid, very reliable.

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Speaker 1: Of course, people have to have a place to live,

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Speaker 1: they have to be able to make their rent and

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Speaker 1: so some of these property owners thought that they could

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Speaker 1: just raise rents into oblivion and that that would be

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Speaker 1: able to make the math work. But with interest rates

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Speaker 1: going up as rapidly as they have, a lot of

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Speaker 1: them are now in really tough positions. So from that

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Speaker 1: article that we had, you have one Peter Sodloff, whose

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Speaker 1: they describe as a veteran real estate finance executive. He

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Speaker 1: described this as a hydrogen bomb scenario. You also have

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Speaker 1: some indications that even more sort of solid, you know,

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Speaker 1: long standing groups in this space that are having trouble.

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Speaker 1: They say, some veteran real estate investors that weather passtorms

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Speaker 1: look vulnerable. Veritas Investments, one of San Francisco's largest landlords

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Speaker 1: and partners, defaulted on debt backing ninety five rental buildings

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Speaker 1: during the past year. It stands to lose more than

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Speaker 1: one third of its San Francisco portfolio as a result.

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Speaker 1: So obviously, you know if you've got landlords that are

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Speaker 1: struggling and that are trying to pass the buck onto

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Speaker 1: their tenants, trying to hike rates, hike rents.

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Speaker 4: That's going to be a huge issue.

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Speaker 1: If you have landlords going into default, if you have

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Speaker 1: cascading impacts on the banking sector, this all has potentially

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Speaker 1: massive ramifications.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and as I referenced earlier, let's put this up

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Speaker 2: there from Bloomberg. Another great chart that we can actually

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Speaker 2: go ahead and show people, which is that many of

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Speaker 2: the property loans that are outstanding right now are so

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Speaker 2: unappealing that the banks will quote want to dump them.

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Speaker 2: What they point out is that commercial property loans have

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Speaker 2: a massively dried up market with very few options for

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Speaker 2: an easy exit. All these lenders, including JP Morgan, Goldmen, Sachs,

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Speaker 2: they've been trying to sell debt which is backed by

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Speaker 2: office hotels and apartments in months, but are having trouble

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Speaker 2: actually finding anybody to buy this because nobody believes that

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Speaker 2: the underlying loans will actually be made whole. And as

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Speaker 2: you can see actually right in front of you, it

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Speaker 2: shows why apartments is really second to office buildings in

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Speaker 2: what's in trouble. Property values are down some thirty percent

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Speaker 2: in the office sector just over the last twelve months,

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Speaker 2: Apartment buildings on an average almost down fifteen percent. Hotels

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Speaker 2: industrial seem to be hanging on malls we did in

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Speaker 2: higher segment about that, and even self storage have taken

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Speaker 2: a hit to some degree. So you have two problems there.

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Speaker 2: Not only are you having the interest rates continue to

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Speaker 2: go up on mortgage and loans and some of these

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Speaker 2: adjustable rate things, but you're also seeing an overall decline

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Speaker 2: in the value. So these guys can't even sell it

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Speaker 2: without being made whole. So this is a real nightmare

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Speaker 2: scenario because the banks can't get anyone to buy the debt,

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Speaker 2: and then once these people do default, if they do

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Speaker 2: want to sell the underlying asset, they'll have to sell

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Speaker 2: far below maybe even what's outstanding on the actual loan.

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Speaker 2: So the big problem is that a lot of this

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Speaker 2: also is concentrated in previously prosperous areas.

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Speaker 3: As you reference San Francisco.

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Speaker 2: I was reading that the Tri State area in particular,

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Speaker 2: which has suffered population loss during the pandemic, has also

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Speaker 2: been suffering. And of course you know they have had

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Speaker 2: the biggest problem in terms of work from home and

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Speaker 2: how much of their economy, even here Washington, DC, many

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Speaker 2: Northeastern cities relied on office culture. I think it relates

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Speaker 2: to a remote work block that we're going to be

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Speaker 2: doing later in the show.

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Speaker 3: But you know, the economic changes.

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Speaker 2: Here could have a serious, serious effect as all these

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Speaker 2: loans come do. And we already know Crystal that the

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Speaker 2: bailout calls are going to be coming soon. There's just

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Speaker 2: no way that they're going to that they will they're

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Speaker 2: going to be able to take this laying down, And

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Speaker 2: I think that's why we're trying to prep everybody for it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and there's a couple other things to say about this.

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Speaker 1: So the trouble in the office space class and the

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Speaker 1: trouble in the apartment building class is a little bit different.

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Speaker 1: So for office space, you both have the fact and

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Speaker 1: this is why office space is the most troubled. You

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Speaker 1: have the fact that interest rates have spiked and you

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Speaker 1: have these super high vacancy rates, especially in cities like

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Speaker 1: San Francisco, cities like LA cities like New York, apartment

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Speaker 1: buildings are actually full, they have low vacancy rates. You know,

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Speaker 1: we've had an issue of not having enough apartment buildings

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Speaker 1: being built to low supply.

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Speaker 4: There's actually I just.

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Speaker 1: Saw some charts about how they're a huge, actually increase

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Speaker 1: in the amount of apartments that are coming into the market.

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Speaker 1: So that is good news for renters. So the issue

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Speaker 1: for apartment buildings isn't low vacancy rates.

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Speaker 4: The whole issue here is basically interest rates.

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Speaker 1: The fact that the FED hiked rates at such a

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Speaker 1: rapid pace by historical standards, that's what's caused all the

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Speaker 1: stress in terms of that asset class. And you had,

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Speaker 1: you know, some new players that got into this game

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Speaker 1: that came in with a set of assumptions that turned

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Speaker 1: out to not to be true, and so they just

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Speaker 1: can't make the math work now. But one other commonality

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Speaker 1: with the office space is how much of that debt

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Speaker 1: is now coming due. So banks, you know, they see

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Speaker 1: this writing on the wall, they see that these assets

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Speaker 1: that they have.

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Speaker 4: Are in trouble.

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Speaker 1: They're trying to offload them in some sort of an

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Speaker 1: orderly fashion, and they just can't find buyers. So even

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Speaker 1: though in some cases they're willing to take a haircut

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Speaker 1: just to have liquidity so that they have some sort

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Speaker 1: of you know, stable basis and they aren't overly exposed.

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Speaker 1: They aren't able to find anyone to take the deal.

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Speaker 1: So it's hard to even say at this point what

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Speaker 1: the appropriate valuations are because there are so few buyers

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Speaker 1: in the market to actually figure out what the market

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Speaker 1: valuation is. They flagged in that article one potential big

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Speaker 1: sale that's being managed they say by brokerage new Mark

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Speaker 1: Group Incorporated. The FDIC, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, is

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Speaker 1: actually seeking to offload sixty billion dollars of real estate

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Speaker 1: backed loans that they ended up with because of signature

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Speaker 1: bank failing. So FDIC ended up with this, you know,

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Speaker 1: sixty billion dollars in real estate back loans that they're

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Speaker 1: not really trying to offload. So that's going to be

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Speaker 1: one indication of exactly exactly where these valuations are since

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Speaker 1: they kind of have to get rid of the assets.

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Speaker 4: That they have.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is all you know, like I said,

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Speaker 2: it's going to be looming over the economy. It's going

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Speaker 2: to affect bank stocks. The banks themselves are very much

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Speaker 2: paying attention to this. Put this up there on the screen.

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Speaker 2: This is a quote from the Goldman Sachs CEO, just

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Speaker 2: from a couple of days ago. He says, quote, there

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Speaker 2: is no question the real estate market, in particular commercial

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Speaker 2: real estate has come under pressure. That came directly as

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Speaker 2: his own bank is trying to unload hundreds of millions

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Speaker 2: of dollars worth of loans from his actual portfolio and

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Speaker 2: trying to sell it off.

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Speaker 3: So there you go.

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Speaker 2: Everybody keep an eye on that because the certain that

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Speaker 2: if they do fail, they'll have their hat in hand

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Speaker 2: coming here to Washington asking for money. But speaking of

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Speaker 2: money and of real estate, it's weird because while the

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Speaker 2: commercial sector is not doing well and there's all these

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Speaker 2: issues on that side, at the same time, housing affordability

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Speaker 2: has never actually been worse here in the United States,

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Speaker 2: especially given what's going on with interest rates. Let's go

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Speaker 2: ahead and put this up there on the screen. The

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Speaker 2: mortgage rate actually just this week hit a twenty three

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Speaker 2: year high, as a Mortgage News daily rites, quote, is

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Speaker 2: there any hope? And as they actually point to, we

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Speaker 2: now have mortgage rates so high that we haven't seen

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Speaker 2: them since two thousand and one near the dot com era.

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Speaker 2: I'll let you guess how exactly the price looked back

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Speaker 2: twenty three years ago and ask you whether it was

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Speaker 2: maybe a tiny little bit affordable even if the interest

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Speaker 2: rate was high. We have not actually seen any aggregate

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Speaker 2: decrease in price in real estate markets. In fact, the

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Speaker 2: news just came out today Crystal that in two thirds

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Speaker 2: of all real estate markets, prices have never been higher

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Speaker 2: for homes. So it's not that prices dropped for homes

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Speaker 2: as mortgage rates continue to go sky high. It's just

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Speaker 2: that they stopped growing as much as they did over

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Speaker 2: the last decade or so, and in particular the last

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Speaker 2: two years, the underlying value because of our lack of

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Speaker 2: supply of housing, has actually knocked down, not gone down.

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Speaker 2: So the interest rate remains so high now that the

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Speaker 2: math on some of these transactions really starts to buy

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Speaker 2: goal of the mind. One tweet in particular put it

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Speaker 2: in perspective. Let's go and put this up there shows you.

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Speaker 2: Let's say you have a new mortgage math you have

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Speaker 2: a one million dollar This guy's.

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Speaker 3: From San Francisco, so that's why he's using these numbers,

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Speaker 3: but it applies to everybody.

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Speaker 2: Say you buy a million dollar house with two hundred

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Speaker 2: k down at a seven percent rate mortgage, that's eight

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Speaker 2: hundred thousand dollars loan. Over the first three years you

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Speaker 2: will pay one hundred and ninety three thousand dollars on

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Speaker 2: this loan five three hundred and twenty two dollars a month.

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Speaker 3: That's a lot of money.

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Speaker 2: After that one hundred and ninety three thousand dollars of

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Speaker 2: payments for your eight hundred thousand dollars loan, the loan

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Speaker 2: now stands at seven hundred and seventy four thousand dollars

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Speaker 2: and five hundred You have paid one hundred and sixty

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Speaker 2: six thousand dollars in interest and just twenty five thousand

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Speaker 2: dollars in principle. So, as you can see from that crystal,

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Speaker 2: the math here is just absolutely brutal.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, like.

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Speaker 2: I said, the guy lives in San Francisco, so the

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Speaker 2: numbers are very large. But that same math applies to anybody.

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Speaker 2: You know, even if you're not taking out a jumbo mortgage,

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Speaker 2: even if you're saying you're buying a three or four

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Speaker 2: hundred thousand dollars house, the proportion is not going to change.

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Speaker 2: You're going to be paying vast majorities of your sums

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Speaker 2: in the initial years straight to the bank and interest

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Speaker 2: payments because the price of the asset remains so high.

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Speaker 2: I mean, really, we have never seen housing less affordable

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Speaker 2: than it is right now. And then worse, you know,

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Speaker 2: not only is it not affordable, okay, five years you

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Speaker 2: know most people they don't They're not even barely able

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Speaker 2: to put up twenty percent. So let's take in they're

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Speaker 2: putting five, maybe ten percent down something like that. And

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Speaker 2: then five years from now, you know, they have a

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Speaker 2: couple of kids, like, Hey, I want to move, and

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Speaker 2: you try to sell. You've got no equity in your house.

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Speaker 2: You have almost nothing. You're effectively renting it from the bank.

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Speaker 2: Whenever you add on top of that like property, property

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Speaker 2: taxes and everything, you're renting it from the bank in

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Speaker 2: the city.

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Speaker 3: You've got almost nothing in this house by yourself.

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Speaker 2: So that strikes at the core and the bedrock of

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Speaker 2: what the American dream was supposed to be.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's the worst of all worlds.

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Speaker 1: I just saw a report yesterday evening that home prices

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Speaker 1: are ticking up again, hitting record highs in nearly two

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Speaker 1: thirds of major markets. So I'll never forget soccer. When

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Speaker 1: we covered a poll of the number of people who

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Speaker 1: were cheering for a housing market decline because they were

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Speaker 1: hoping that maybe maybe prices will come down and I'll

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Speaker 1: have some shot at some point in my life at

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Speaker 1: being able to become a homeowner. Which you know, the

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Speaker 1: way that we have our economy structured is like vway

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Speaker 1: to build sort of stable middle class prosperity, and it's

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Speaker 1: been the exact opposite. I say, it's the worst of

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Speaker 1: all worlds because on the one hand, you have you

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Speaker 1: have very low supply because a lot of people who

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Speaker 1: have houses don't want to sell because they don't want

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Speaker 1: to have to get.

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Speaker 4: A mortgage rate at the new very high rates.

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Speaker 1: You have those high rates making it so unaffordable for

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Speaker 1: anyone new to get into the game. As well, then

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Speaker 1: you have prices that you know, on the have remained

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Speaker 1: high and now are actually ticking up. So this is

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Speaker 1: a sport from Black Knight that I'm looking at. They

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Speaker 1: say prices grew zero point eight percent in June after

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Speaker 1: slowing for more than a year, pushing prices to record

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Speaker 1: levels in around sixty percent of the nation's major housing markets.

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Speaker 1: So when you consider very high mortgage rates and record

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Speaker 1: high prices, it's just a disaster for anyone who ever

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Speaker 1: aspires to be able to get into this market. And

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Speaker 1: then you pair it with the last story about all

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Speaker 1: of these landlords that are under financial pressure also because

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Speaker 1: of the rates, and they're trying to hike rents, so

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Speaker 1: renters are getting screwed as well because of that scenario.

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Speaker 1: You just I mean, housing is this underlying issue that

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Speaker 1: I think gets far too little attention in Washington, but

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Speaker 1: it's one of the most important factors in people's quality

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Speaker 1: of life.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're absolutely right. We have to continue

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Speaker 2: to stay on top of it. This is one of

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Speaker 2: those where you know, we hear from everybody, and it's

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Speaker 2: downstreaming of a lot of things. When you got no property,

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Speaker 2: that means you have no real equity, you know, in

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Speaker 2: terms of society, a lot of it drives political participation.

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Speaker 2: Permanent rentier class is one of the things that we've

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Speaker 2: always striven to make sure that we avoid here in

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Speaker 2: the United States. It has all kinds of social downstream

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Speaker 2: terrible effects really, and then it really is the number

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Speaker 2: one way to accumulate any sort of intergenerational wealth over

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Speaker 2: the years. It's one of the most important economic markers.

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Speaker 2: I'm not saying things should work this way, but that

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Speaker 2: is just the way it is. If you're going to

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Speaker 2: deny that to the entire new generation. Don't be surprised

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Speaker 2: what comes down the pipeline. So we'll continue to keep

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Speaker 2: an eye.

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Speaker 1: We've got some really fascinating new numbers from Gallup about

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Speaker 1: just how the two major political parties, how the base

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Speaker 1: of those parties feels about a whole variety of issues,

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Speaker 1: and the fact that over the past number of years

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Speaker 1: there's been a growing divide on basically all of those issues,

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Speaker 1: but some a lot more than others, and the ones

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Speaker 1: that are a lot more than others are kind of

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Speaker 1: revealing and of themselves.

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Speaker 4: So let's go and put this up on the screen.

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Speaker 1: From Gallop, they say, here, you've got changes in partisan

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Speaker 1: gaps on selected issues. And let me just explain what

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Speaker 1: you're looking at here for a minute, because I found

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Speaker 1: this presentation a little bit confusing. But you have on

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Speaker 1: the left side it explains what the issue is. So

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Speaker 1: federal government has too much power, human activity is main

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Speaker 1: cause of global warming, completely or somewhat satisfied with K

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Speaker 1: to twelve education in US, abortion should be legal under

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Speaker 1: any circumstance. They test a whole lot more of these,

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Speaker 1: but the ones that we show here are the issues

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Speaker 1: where the polar where the divide is the largest, so federal.

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Speaker 4: Government has too much power.

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Speaker 1: That was the category where the divide was the absolute largest.

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Speaker 1: Then global warming, then how you feel about K to twelve? Education,

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Speaker 1: Then whether abortion should be legal under any circumstance. They

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Speaker 1: say in this article that political polarization since two thousand

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Speaker 1: and three has increased most significantly on issues related to

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Speaker 1: federal government power, global warming, environment, education, abortion, foreign trade, immigration,

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Speaker 1: gun laws, the government's role in providing healthcare, and income

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Speaker 1: tax fairness. They go on to say that polarization has

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Speaker 1: remained more or less the same on certain moral issues

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Speaker 1: and satisfaction with the.

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Speaker 4: State of race relations.

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Speaker 1: Let's go and put the next graph that we have

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Speaker 1: up on the screen so you can visualize a number

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Speaker 1: of these as well.

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Speaker 4: So you can see here.

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Speaker 1: The graph between how Democrats feel about these issues and

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Speaker 1: how Republicans feel about these issues. So you've got, you know,

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Speaker 1: pretty wide divide there between those who believe that government

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Speaker 1: should ensure everyone has healthcare. The next one is about

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Speaker 1: protecting the environment has priority over energy development.

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Speaker 4: Very wide divide there too. Why divide on gun laws? One?

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Speaker 1: Why divide on global warming? Another one on global warming?

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Speaker 4: Abortion? Federal government has too much power?

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Speaker 1: That one is really interesting because you can see the

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Speaker 1: way that basically, you know, around twenty ten, with Obama

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Speaker 1: and the rise of the Tea Party, Republicans sentiment that

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Speaker 1: the federal government has too much power really spikes, and

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Speaker 1: Democrats have been going in the opposite direction. They've been,

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Speaker 1: you know, feeling less concerned about the federal government having

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Speaker 1: too much power, and then you have, as a you know,

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Speaker 1: a widening divide also on the government should do more

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Speaker 1: to solve the nation's problems.

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Speaker 4: I'll tell you Cyber.

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Speaker 1: The one of these that I actually found in some

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Speaker 1: ways the most interesting was about foreign trade, because I

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Speaker 1: don't know if you caught this, but foreign trade is

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Speaker 1: opportunity for economic growth. Back in two thousand and three,

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Speaker 1: Republicans and Democrats basically felt the same way about this.

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Speaker 1: It was like fifty to fifty, So fifty percent of

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Speaker 1: Republicans were like, yes, foreign trade, fifty percent of Democrats

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Speaker 1: were like yes, foreign trade. Roughly since that time, the

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Speaker 1: Democratic number has actually skyrocketed. Democrats now seventy four percent

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Speaker 1: of them say that foreign trade is an opportunity for

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Speaker 1: economic growth. Republicans have more or less remained flat. It

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Speaker 1: has ticked down a little bit, but they're now forty

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Speaker 1: nine percent that say that foreign trade is an opportunity

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Speaker 1: for economic growth. And to be honest with you, it

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Speaker 1: was sort of surprising to me this was an issue.

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Speaker 1: I would have guessed that both parties became more skeptical

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Speaker 1: of foreign trade. The Republicans became a little bit more

442
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:18,360
Speaker 1: skeptical of foreign trade. But the really, you know, notable

443
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 1: numbers here are how the Democratic numbers have just absolutely skyrocketed,

444
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 1: and I can only attribute it and a lot of

445
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 1: these polarization numbers are just a tribute to the way

446
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:32,280
Speaker 1: that Trump shapes so much of our politics. Yep, the

447
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:37,480
Speaker 1: way that partisan affiliation, you know, Trump's any sort of

448
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 1: like independent thinking and a lot of regards like wherever

449
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:42,159
Speaker 1: the team is, that's where I'm going to go. And

450
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,360
Speaker 1: Democrats increasingly defined their team as just being the opposite

451
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:47,679
Speaker 1: of wherever Trump is. And so if you look at

452
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 1: a lot of these numbers, that's kind of the dynamic

453
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 1: that you see unfolding.

454
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,399
Speaker 2: In my opinion, yeah, it's actually very unfortunate because you

455
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 2: can actually see the split on foreign trade happen almost

456
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 2: exactly around twenty thirteen. But there's also a big education

457
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 2: polarization element to this.

458
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 3: I could tell you.

459
00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 2: I mean you and I you know, we both came

460
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 2: through ECON programs in college. Any basic ECON program in college.

461
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,040
Speaker 2: They're gonna hammer something into your brain. They're like, trade

462
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 2: is good, foreign trade is great. It's about net economic benefit.

463
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 2: It's about this. And it's only until you start reading

464
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:18,919
Speaker 2: about the cost of so called net benefit when the

465
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 2: net benefit goes to China or Mexico or Canada or

466
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 2: the EU or Japan, and then you're like, oh, well,

467
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:29,120
Speaker 2: actually the cost on the side of the equation was us,

468
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 2: and then the benefit was to the people over there,

469
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:33,960
Speaker 2: and then a bunch of bankers here in the US.

470
00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 2: Now we're not talking in economic terms. We're talking a

471
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,520
Speaker 2: little bit more in human and political economic terms. That's

472
00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:41,439
Speaker 2: part of the issue, I think is a big one.

473
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:45,159
Speaker 2: Education polarization really has its fingers all over this, and

474
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 2: you know, you can actually really make sense. But same

475
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,040
Speaker 2: with culture, and in some ways you can understand if

476
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 2: you're a democrat and O three, we just did invade

477
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 2: it Iraq.

478
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 3: Of course the government has too much power. But then

479
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 3: Obama takes over.

480
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 2: You know, you start then, you know, a slight dip

481
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 2: ish you know, I guess the Trump years, you mostly

482
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 2: agree with a lot of stuff that Biden is doing.

483
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,919
Speaker 2: You weren't all that concerned about lockdowns or any of

484
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:09,000
Speaker 2: this stuff. These are things that you're mostly you know,

485
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 2: aligned with Ish. So it's a lot of it comes

486
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,400
Speaker 2: down to, like the topics of the day. I wasn't

487
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 2: surprised by that number. The trade number actually was, you know,

488
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,639
Speaker 2: probably the most troubling one to me in terms of

489
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 2: where the biggest difference in Republicans have. You can also

490
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 2: see really what happened with Trump, the fact that the

491
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 2: immigration number dramatically declined almost thirty percent, and also the

492
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 2: quote great deal or quite a lot of confidence in police.

493
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 2: That's not actually all that surprising. I was actually a

494
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 2: little bit more heartened around where some of the things

495
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 2: where people it seems people have become much more personally libertarian,

496
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:48,720
Speaker 2: and I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing. So

497
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 2: for example, like if you look at things like not

498
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,400
Speaker 2: only the gay marriage number, but if you really look

499
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 2: at things like divorce being morally acceptable, or you know,

500
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:02,520
Speaker 2: people having children out of wedlock, all of that. No

501
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 2: one's saying like these are necessarily good things like that,

502
00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:11,200
Speaker 2: But the moral equation, the moral police, like the original

503
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 2: kind of Christian cancel culture that was so prevalent in

504
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 2: our politics from the nineteen seventies really up until the

505
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 2: twenty tens. That is a basically dead consensus, which for

506
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 2: somebody like me who grew up in the evangelical heart

507
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 2: of Texas, can't help but say it's a good thing.

508
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 2: But you know, of course that's going to dramatically change

509
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 2: things in the way that all of our culture looks

510
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,399
Speaker 2: like and how people personally feel about certain things.

511
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 3: I think that's very interesting.

512
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:40,719
Speaker 1: It was fascinating to me the places where things diverged.

513
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:44,120
Speaker 1: Those places tended to be issues that have been put

514
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:48,359
Speaker 1: at the center of our debate in recent years. You know, immigration,

515
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 1: huge divergence, how you feel about the police, huge diversions,

516
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 1: climate action huge divergence, the nature and role of the

517
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 1: federal government right, which is really very very sort of

518
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 1: meta conversation, huge divergence. But yeah, it was also fascinating

519
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 1: to me the places where the trend moved in the

520
00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 1: same direction. So even on something like favor death penalty

521
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:17,919
Speaker 1: in cases of murder for both parties, the trend was

522
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 1: actually downward. There were fewer people who favored the death

523
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 1: penalty in both parties. Now there's still a wide split.

524
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 1: Seventy three percent of Republicans still do favor the death penalty.

525
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 1: It's thirty seven percent of Democrats. But it moved in

526
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 1: the same direction. Marijuana should be legal, that was a

527
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 1: big one. Trend moved definitely in the same direction. Democrats

528
00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:38,679
Speaker 1: are at eighty three percent. Republicans are now at a

529
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,680
Speaker 1: majority fifty five percent think that marijuana should be legal,

530
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 1: which makes it you realize how insane it is that

531
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 1: it's not legal yet, even with the Democrat in the

532
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 1: White House.

533
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 4: But I digress. But the trend moved in the same direction.

534
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 1: Same sex marriages should be legally valid, same direction, having

535
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:58,240
Speaker 1: a baby onside of marriage morally acceptable, divorce morally acceptable,

536
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 1: sex between unmarried couples morally acceptable. Satisfied with state of

537
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:08,879
Speaker 1: race relations. The satisfaction with the state of race relations

538
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:13,919
Speaker 1: in both parties actually declined. So in two thousand and three,

539
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 1: Democrats were looks like at about, you know, forty five

540
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,959
Speaker 1: percent somewhere around there. Republicans were actually maybe like fifty

541
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 1: five percent, And then today Republicans have declined down forty percent.

542
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 1: Democrats have declined all the way down to twenty three

543
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,880
Speaker 1: percent in terms of their state of race relation satisfaction.

544
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,680
Speaker 1: But again both parties moving the same direction. And here's

545
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 1: another one that's interesting. Favorable opinion of Cuba Democrats all

546
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: the way up now at forty nine percent. Republicans also

547
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:45,080
Speaker 1: trending in the same direction at thirty five percent. So

548
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:49,160
Speaker 1: it is fascinating that while on the core issues that

549
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 1: have been the subject of a lot of cable news

550
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:54,640
Speaker 1: debate and a lot of you know, political struggle over

551
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 1: these past number of years, you see these increasing divides.

552
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:00,199
Speaker 4: But let me give you one more where a is

553
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:01,360
Speaker 4: in the same direction.

554
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 1: Government should ensure that everyone has healthcare. Democrats now all

555
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 1: the way up at eighty five percent that say, yes,

556
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:12,920
Speaker 1: the government should guarantee everyone has healthcare. Republicans have also

557
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 1: jumped up since twenty thirteen. They're now at thirty percent.

558
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:17,720
Speaker 1: So over the past decade, that has also moved in

559
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 1: the same direction. So it's fascinating to dig into these numbers.

560
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,359
Speaker 1: The one like I said that the immigration that there

561
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 1: is a huge divide didn't surprise me, police, gun laws, whatever,

562
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,640
Speaker 1: that didn't surprise me. The one that I was surprised

563
00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 1: by the numbers on foreign trade, because I thought even

564
00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:36,399
Speaker 1: on the Democratic side post Obama, given the energy behind

565
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 1: Bernie in twenty sixteen and again in twenty twenty, and

566
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 1: his skepticism of these bad free trade deals, including NAFTA

567
00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 1: and including TPP, I would have thought the Democratic numbers

568
00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 1: would be more mixed.

569
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 4: But nope, not at all.

570
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I think that's unfortunate.

571
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 2: I mean, I think it also does come back to

572
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 2: partisan breaks in terms of like base of the parties.

573
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 2: It becomes more college educated. That's going to reflect, but

574
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 2: that doesn't necessarily mean and also the people who like

575
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,440
Speaker 2: do still vote Democrat who are working class, so there's

576
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,959
Speaker 2: still going to be some separation I think within that.

577
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, it certainly doesn't form a lot

578
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 2: of what's going on today.

579
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 3: So I thought we broke it down.

580
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely.

581
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to this next piece, which

582
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 1: I think is very interesting. So there's this Congressman Dean Phillips.

583
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 1: He's considered sort of a centricty Democrat in Minnesota, and

584
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 1: he has for a while now been saying, you know,

585
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 1: Biden is too old, basically, and I think Democrats should

586
00:29:33,280 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 1: look at there are options in terms of the next

587
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 1: presidential nominating contest.

588
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 4: He's now making those calls.

589
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 1: A little more assertively and not ruling out the possibility

590
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 1: of he himself jumping into the race. So let's take

591
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:49,600
Speaker 1: a listen to a bit of what Congressman Dean Phillips,

592
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 1: Democrat of Minnesota, had to say.

593
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 5: Democrats are telling me that they want not a coronation,

594
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:58,440
Speaker 5: but they want a competition. The New York Times poll

595
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:02,080
Speaker 5: from this week shows fifty five percent of Democratic voters

596
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,760
Speaker 5: want some alternatives to the current people in the primary,

597
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 5: eighty three percent of those under thirty Democrats under thirty

598
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 5: want alternatives, and about seventy six percent of independence. So

599
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 5: I just want to make my case.

600
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 3: When are you going to decide?

601
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 5: I think, well, let me get to my point. Okay,

602
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 5: So if we don't heed, I's giving.

603
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 3: You some room, Yes you have.

604
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 5: If we don't heed that call, shame on us, and

605
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 5: the consequences I believe are going to be disastrous. So

606
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 5: my call is to those who are well positioned, well prepared,

607
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 5: of good character and competency, they know who they are,

608
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 5: to jump in because Democrats and the country need competition.

609
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 5: It makes everything better. That's my call to them. Right now.

610
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 3: So if they don't, you will.

611
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 5: I'm not saying I will. I think I'm well positioned

612
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 5: to be president of the United States.

613
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:47,239
Speaker 3: You do.

614
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 5: I do not believe I'm well positioned to run for

615
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 5: it right now. People who are should jump in because

616
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 5: we need to meet the moment. The moment is now.

617
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 5: That is what the country is asking.

618
00:30:57,160 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 1: Would she, in your mind, be the heir apparent if

619
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 1: for some reason the President of the United States were

620
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 1: not to seek denomination in twenty twenty four.

621
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 5: I'm glad you asked the question, and my answer is

622
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 5: really simple, competition. As many people as humanly possible, with

623
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:12,960
Speaker 5: the talent, the time, the energy, the ethics to enter

624
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 5: a primary should do it. We have twelve Republicans as

625
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 5: options for Republican primary voters right now, we only have

626
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 5: three on the Democratic side. I believe in competition. We're

627
00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 5: the Democratic Party. Democracy means the freedom to make choices,

628
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 5: and we don't have many of them.

629
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a real classic centrist pitch because there's

630
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 1: no content to it.

631
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 4: It's just like choices. I like choices, which listen.

632
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 1: I agree we should have democracy in the Democratic Party.

633
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 1: Democratic voters should have the ability to evaluate the choices

634
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 1: they already have by virtue of a debate that the

635
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:49,440
Speaker 1: President has said he's absolutely not going to do, and

636
00:31:49,480 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 1: the DNC has failed to even make any moves towards

637
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: setting up.

638
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 4: But there's no critique.

639
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 1: Outside of just like, hey, we should have choices and

640
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 1: maybe this guy is too old. I also think it's funny, Sagert,

641
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 1: that no one knows who Dean Phillips is. No one

642
00:32:05,640 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 1: has ever heard of Dean Phillips before in their life.

643
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:11,479
Speaker 1: He's like the most forgettable, unimpressive character you could possibly

644
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 1: and this is no offense to him, but this is

645
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 1: like the most plain, vanilla, random congressman you can possibly imagine.

646
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:19,320
Speaker 4: And yet this guy.

647
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 1: Gets taken seriously by the media and the two candidates

648
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 1: that are actually in the race already don't explain that

649
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 1: to me.

650
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 3: Oh, it's outrageous.

651
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 2: You know, you got some freaking backbenching congressman hunt Face

652
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 2: the Nation. This is one of the most opposed important

653
00:32:33,760 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 2: political shows in the country. Mariann Williamson and RFK Junior

654
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:41,320
Speaker 2: are polling well above the threshold for a debate. To

655
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 2: my knowledge, RFK has not been on Face Nation, nor

656
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 2: has Maryanne Williamson. I mean, and you've got Major Garrett there,

657
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 2: like treating this guy like he's serious, what just because

658
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 2: he was elected to you know, Congress. It's just one

659
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 2: of those where it's ridiculous the disparate amount of treatment

660
00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 2: which is happening here, but also so deep indicative of

661
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 2: so many problems in our primary process. We have it too,

662
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 2: you know, in many cases on the Republican side, you

663
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 2: could see, you know, Ron DeSantis, look how much more

664
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 2: seriously he's taken than Vivike Ramaswami by many you know accounts.

665
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 2: They're pulling very in very similar position. Vivic's media coverage

666
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 2: is beginning to tick up with the polling. Maybe I

667
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 2: guess they're a little bit more likely, but you know,

668
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 2: they's still treat Mike Pence and Nikki Haley, people who

669
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 2: are pull like one to two percent barely, you know,

670
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 2: as serious candidates. And then when you really put it

671
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 2: up against people like Kennedy and Williamson, you're just like,

672
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:41,960
Speaker 2: this is insane because Ramaswami is pulling around the same

673
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 2: levels as RFK or Mary Anne. Same with many of

674
00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 2: the elected Republicans you know, in terms of who are

675
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:51,640
Speaker 2: in many cases pulling even below them. And yet they're

676
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 2: getting media treatment and not them, So it's just totally crazy.

677
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 2: And this guy he hasn't even announced Kennedy and Williamson

678
00:33:57,600 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 2: are actually running, Like what are they doing?

679
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 4: Yeah?

680
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 1: Well, and I love too how his call for choice

681
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 1: doesn't include any sort of reflection on the cannisated are

682
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 1: in the race or acknowledgment that they really even exist.

683
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 1: So there's that as well. But I mean this has

684
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 1: sparked some speculation. You see these pieces still pop up

685
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 1: in the press of like, oh, donors are still evaluating

686
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:24,080
Speaker 1: their options, and maybe Biden is still going to pull

687
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:26,800
Speaker 1: out of the race, which I think is really fan fiction.

688
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 1: And I mean, do you think there's any chance this

689
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 1: guy actually runs. I find it very, very unlikely that

690
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 1: he would actually jump into the race. I feel like

691
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 1: he just wants to sort of make a little bit

692
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 1: of name for himself and a little bit of waves

693
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 1: in the press.

694
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 4: Right now.

695
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's possible. I don't think most people are going

696
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 2: to care, you know, really either way. But I mean

697
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 2: here's I guess here's the only pro case for doing this,

698
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:51,800
Speaker 2: by getting people like him to say it in mainstream

699
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:54,040
Speaker 2: media and saying, ween, you should have a debate. We

700
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 2: should have some competition. Maybe they'll wake up to the

701
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:58,840
Speaker 2: fact that they're already is competition and it could actually

702
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 2: lead to something. But I'm not going to hold my breath.

703
00:35:01,200 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 2: It's such a stupid you know, it's such a stupid

704
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 2: view into how these people actually view democracy.

705
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 4: I think that's a good point. Though.

706
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 1: I think that's a good point. It puts it on

707
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:13,520
Speaker 1: the table. I mean, it's silly that it has to

708
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 1: come from a backbench Congress member that nobody's heard of,

709
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 1: but that is the way Washington works. When they say

710
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:21,840
Speaker 1: there's no serious candidate in the race, it's partly because

711
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:24,959
Speaker 1: you have, you know, people who have not been held

712
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 1: elected office in Washington, d C.

713
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:29,399
Speaker 4: Who are the ones in the race. So they find

714
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:30,399
Speaker 4: it more difficult to.

715
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 1: Dismiss someone who is a member of Congress, who, you know,

716
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 1: even though he doesn't have any like ideological content to

717
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 1: his critique, is at least standing up for the idea

718
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:42,919
Speaker 1: that there should be some democracy and that there should

719
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:47,959
Speaker 1: be some choice, a notion that overwhelmingly is held within

720
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 1: the Democratic base. And we're about to go over some

721
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 1: of the numbers with young people and Joe Biden.

722
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 4: The way they feel about this.

723
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 1: I mean, they just buy huge numbers, want a different candidate,

724
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 1: are backing other candidates, active, want.

725
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:01,719
Speaker 4: To see debates.

726
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 1: But this is really the reality within a lot of

727
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:08,080
Speaker 1: the Democratic base. So you know, potentially, if you have

728
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 1: more people who make some waves like this, maybe a

729
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:12,560
Speaker 1: dam will break and maybe it'll be more pressure put

730
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 1: on Democrats, or at least a light shined on their

731
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:18,279
Speaker 1: hypocrisy of running around talking about how much they care

732
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:20,759
Speaker 1: about democracy and at the same time doing everything they

733
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 1: can to block the actual democratic will of the people.

734
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, why don't we go ahead and get into

735
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:27,280
Speaker 3: the younger voters.

736
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:29,840
Speaker 4: Yeah. So this actually jumped out at me.

737
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:32,840
Speaker 1: In the last New York Times Ciena poll of the

738
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,120
Speaker 1: Democratic side of the race, I was taking into the

739
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:38,840
Speaker 1: cross tabs and the numbers for Jokepiden among young people

740
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:42,880
Speaker 1: eighteen to twenty nine is the demographic category are just

741
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 1: really rough. Let's go and put some of these numbers

742
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:50,800
Speaker 1: up on the screen. Here's his approval rating by age group.

743
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:53,759
Speaker 1: So both in this one, both eighteen to twenty nine

744
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:57,400
Speaker 1: and thirty to forty four in the thirties, So eighteen

745
00:36:57,440 --> 00:36:59,879
Speaker 1: to twenty nine is at thirty six percent approval thirty

746
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:03,280
Speaker 1: forty fours at thirty four percent, and then the numbers

747
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 1: get better as they get older, although none of them

748
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 1: crack fifty percent.

749
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:08,880
Speaker 4: Let's go put the next one up on the screen

750
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:09,480
Speaker 4: as well.

751
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 1: This could give you some clue as to why eighteen

752
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 1: to twenty nine year olds are not falling in love

753
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 1: with Joe Biden. Here, sixty four percent say that the

754
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 1: economy is poor. They rate economic conditions today as poor,

755
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:27,399
Speaker 1: twenty seven percent say only fair. And then you have,

756
00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 1: you know, a very small single digit numbers saying it

757
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:32,439
Speaker 1: is good or excellent. Let's go and put the next

758
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:34,279
Speaker 1: piece up on the screen so we can lay all

759
00:37:34,280 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 1: of this out.

760
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 4: Now. This was what initially caught my eye.

761
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:42,400
Speaker 1: They asked, okay, if the election for Democratic nominee were today,

762
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:45,000
Speaker 1: and this was among Democrats who are eighteen to twenty

763
00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 1: nine years old.

764
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:46,400
Speaker 4: Who would you vote for?

765
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 1: Joe Biden gets about a third of the vote of

766
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 1: young people. RFK gets thirteen percent, Maryanne gets twenty seven percent,

767
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:57,319
Speaker 1: and don't know as twenty six percent. So if you

768
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 1: put RFK and Mary in together, they are poll way

769
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 1: higher than Joe Biden among eighteen to twenty nine year olds.

770
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,840
Speaker 1: And then you still have a quarter of the electorate

771
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 1: that says I don't know. So for Joe Biden the president,

772
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 1: to be getting one third of young people behind him,

773
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:16,200
Speaker 1: now you can see why he's making some moves on

774
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 1: student debt relief. Let's put the next one up on

775
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 1: the screen. Regardless of who you prefer the Democratic primary,

776
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:25,120
Speaker 1: do you think the Democratic Party should renominate Joe Biden?

777
00:38:25,160 --> 00:38:27,760
Speaker 4: Again, this is among eighteen to twenty nine year olds.

778
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:33,919
Speaker 1: Seventeen percent say nominate Joe Biden and eighty percent say

779
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:36,160
Speaker 1: nominate a different candidate.

780
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:37,360
Speaker 4: So listen.

781
00:38:37,400 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 1: I know people say, oh, young people that don't show

782
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:41,560
Speaker 1: up to vote, et cetera, et cetera, it's actually not true.

783
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:43,359
Speaker 4: In recent elections.

784
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 1: That demographic eighteen to twenty nine has been showing up

785
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:49,799
Speaker 1: in much higher numbers than they historically have. They were

786
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 1: really key in the midterm elections in forestalling a red wave.

787
00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 1: They've been energized in general in the Trump era. They

788
00:38:57,160 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 1: were absolutely essential part of the Joe Biden victory back

789
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:07,840
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, and they have a scathing, scathing review

790
00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 1: thus far of the Biden administration and are actively evaluating

791
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:14,719
Speaker 1: other options to include, you know, other candidates in the

792
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 1: Democratic primary race and also potentially Cornell West in the

793
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:18,360
Speaker 1: general election.

794
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:21,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, when you add in Cornell West to this, you

795
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:22,720
Speaker 2: really see the young voter.

796
00:39:22,600 --> 00:39:24,759
Speaker 3: Problem that they have and why they freak out about it.

797
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:27,240
Speaker 2: And also, I would remind you know, because the election

798
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,279
Speaker 2: was so close, if you just give Margins just a

799
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:32,879
Speaker 2: little bit both on young people, old people, black people

800
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 2: a spent wherever. By taking others for granted, you're putting

801
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 2: yourself in a very vulnerable position. And also Biden doesn't

802
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 2: even make an effort to speak to people. The President

803
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 2: today is in Arizona, and I saw that he was

804
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:47,759
Speaker 2: going to sit for an interview. I said, oh, that's great,

805
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:50,160
Speaker 2: maybe we'll get a question about hunter By. It's with

806
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:54,799
Speaker 2: the freaking Weather channel that is the too he's decided

807
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:57,640
Speaker 2: to sit with, and there's a listen. I'm not you know,

808
00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:00,879
Speaker 2: I don't want to denigrate my colleagues channel. I'm sure

809
00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 2: they have some great questions to ask him about the

810
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 2: heat wave, and that's awesome, but you know the fact

811
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:08,799
Speaker 2: that that's the only one that he's going to be

812
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 2: doing or has done now actually in weeks as an

813
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:12,400
Speaker 2: actual interview.

814
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 3: We all know what's going on here.

815
00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 2: It makes no effort to either reach out to people,

816
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:19,360
Speaker 2: to reassure people. That's why only seventy percent of the

817
00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:21,400
Speaker 2: young people even want him to come. You know, in

818
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:23,440
Speaker 2: terms of the people who are speaking to their interests,

819
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:25,759
Speaker 2: you've got Kennedy, you've got Williamson, you've got West, people

820
00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:28,040
Speaker 2: who are actually making an effort. I mean, I see

821
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 2: it all the time in terms of people who are

822
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 2: younger and not as engaged in the political process, and

823
00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:35,720
Speaker 2: they have no faith. I don't think it's a surprise

824
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 2: that his approval rating is really only high ish amongst

825
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:42,320
Speaker 2: people who are over sixty and very much more traditional

826
00:40:42,600 --> 00:40:45,680
Speaker 2: in their political beliefs. So it's a problem really of

827
00:40:45,719 --> 00:40:48,520
Speaker 2: his own making, and they can continue to ignore it

828
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 2: for as long as they want. But eventually that bill's

829
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:53,319
Speaker 2: gonna come due. I don't know when. I keep saying

830
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:56,200
Speaker 2: it could take ten probably to get two decades or

831
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:58,880
Speaker 2: something like that for it to truly materialize. But you know,

832
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:00,919
Speaker 2: don't let anybody say no. But he wasn't talking about

833
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 2: it from the beginning.

834
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, think about how much they denigrate Marianne.

835
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:08,840
Speaker 1: Remember what Kaarine Jean Pierre said about her from the poty.

836
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 1: It just so snide and sneering, dismissive, filled with contempt

837
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:16,800
Speaker 1: as she tried to like artfully deliver her pre planned

838
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:20,480
Speaker 1: joke and still stumbled over it. And Marian is almost

839
00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 1: tied with Joe Biden among this demographic.

840
00:41:22,880 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 4: Like, just think about that.

841
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:26,440
Speaker 1: Think about the way that she's been shut out and

842
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:29,080
Speaker 1: the level of dissatisfaction that there has to be that

843
00:41:29,120 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 1: they are searching for an alternative that the media will

844
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:36,239
Speaker 1: not present to them whatsoever. I think that's remarkable. And

845
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:39,560
Speaker 1: you know, I dug into some of the like Okay, well,

846
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:41,840
Speaker 1: what's the issue set for young voters and does it

847
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:44,719
Speaker 1: look a lot different than the issue set for older voters?

848
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 1: And it really doesn't. I mean, it's the economy. It

849
00:41:48,080 --> 00:41:50,240
Speaker 1: really ties in with what we were talking about earlier

850
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 1: with like the housing numbers. Now this is this is

851
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:55,680
Speaker 1: a generation of people really now too, generations of people

852
00:41:55,719 --> 00:41:57,919
Speaker 1: who are looking at the landscape. They're like, I'm never

853
00:41:57,960 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 1: going to be able to own a house. I have

854
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:01,920
Speaker 1: no idea how I'm going to afford to have a family.

855
00:42:02,239 --> 00:42:05,600
Speaker 1: I'm crushed under this student debt load, I am worried

856
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 1: about the climate, and I don't see you taking the

857
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:10,759
Speaker 1: action that I think that you should. And so they

858
00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:16,239
Speaker 1: are justifiably very dissatisfied with what the Biden administration has

859
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:18,840
Speaker 1: been able to do for them in terms of just

860
00:42:19,160 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 1: their material reality, being able to imagine themselves in a stable,

861
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 1: you know, prosperous, like solid middle class life. It feels

862
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 1: those chances feel vanishingly small.

863
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 4: And it wasn't always this way.

864
00:42:33,160 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 1: I always think it's important to point out at the

865
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:39,280
Speaker 1: beginning of the Biden administration, young people were his strongest constituency.

866
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:41,759
Speaker 1: At the beginning, they were very hopeful, they voted for

867
00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 1: him in huge numbers, very supportive of what was done

868
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:47,920
Speaker 1: in terms of pandemic relief, and you know, some of

869
00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:50,839
Speaker 1: the student debt forbearance and some of those early programs.

870
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:53,760
Speaker 1: But now as all of that has been stripped away

871
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 1: and you're left with you know, inflation, you're left with

872
00:42:56,680 --> 00:43:00,799
Speaker 1: this housing market which is crushing to people. Well, it's

873
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 1: no surprise that it's not that they're voting Republican. They're

874
00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 1: just disgusted with this Democrat. They want a different Democrat,

875
00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:09,440
Speaker 1: or they're open to a third party.

876
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:10,200
Speaker 3: Yep.

877
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:14,480
Speaker 2: And look, we'll see how it works out for Joe Biden.

878
00:43:14,560 --> 00:43:15,879
Speaker 3: Come twenty twenty four.

879
00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:18,279
Speaker 2: Personally, just don't think it's going to work out all

880
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 2: that Well, Okay, let's go to the next part here

881
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 2: about fusion. We've talked about the LK ninety nine superconductor,

882
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:29,560
Speaker 2: and we've got some more news on fusion, which is

883
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:33,279
Speaker 2: kind of the holy grail of nuke of power of

884
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 2: recreating the core of the Sun, which I think is

885
00:43:36,480 --> 00:43:38,239
Speaker 2: pretty cool whenever you say it out loud.

886
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:40,720
Speaker 3: Let's put put this up there on the screen.

887
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:46,040
Speaker 2: US scientists have now actually repeated and replicated the fusion

888
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 2: power breakthrough which excited the world just last year.

889
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 3: As a catch up.

890
00:43:50,719 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 2: It is achieved quote net energy gain in a fusion

891
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 2: reaction for the second time, fueling optimism that progress is

892
00:43:57,160 --> 00:44:00,560
Speaker 2: being made towards the dream of limitless zero carb in power.

893
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 2: Physicists have sought since the nineteen fifties to harness the

894
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 2: fusion reaction that powers the Sun. Until just December of

895
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:09,680
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, no group had ever been able to

896
00:44:09,680 --> 00:44:11,960
Speaker 2: do it in terms of energy from the reaction that

897
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 2: it consumes, which is known as ignition. So researchers at

898
00:44:16,280 --> 00:44:20,360
Speaker 2: the Federal Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California who actually

899
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 2: achieved this ignition last year, repeated it on July thirtieth,

900
00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:28,280
Speaker 2: producing higher energy output than actual input. Now there's still

901
00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 2: quite a long way to go, and just if anybody's

902
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 2: interested in the mechanics quote achieved by heating two hydrogen

903
00:44:34,960 --> 00:44:40,120
Speaker 2: isotopes usually deterium and tritium, to such extreme temperatures that

904
00:44:40,160 --> 00:44:43,719
Speaker 2: the atomic nuclei fuse, releasing helium and vast amounts of

905
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:46,680
Speaker 2: energy in the form of neutrons. Really fun to have

906
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 2: this actually happen right after the movie Oppenheimer.

907
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:54,000
Speaker 3: And what they talk about is that it is quote.

908
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:57,279
Speaker 2: One of the most impressive scientific feats already of the

909
00:44:57,320 --> 00:45:00,480
Speaker 2: twenty first century. And if they can not only continue

910
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:04,239
Speaker 2: to replicate the experiment on a consistent basis, but then

911
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:08,120
Speaker 2: try to make it cost effective, scalable and of course

912
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:12,840
Speaker 2: safe everywhere, it could unlock of course literally quite like

913
00:45:13,040 --> 00:45:16,400
Speaker 2: limitless energy and lay a lot of the concerns that

914
00:45:16,440 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 2: we have and change superconductors if that technology all works out.

915
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 2: So it's a really exciting time, I think, and it's

916
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 2: always important. Look, everyone hears about crazy breakthroughs. I even

917
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 2: said this on a superconductor. You got to wait for

918
00:45:30,000 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 2: replication we're still waiting on that, by the way, But

919
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:36,479
Speaker 2: when you do have at least one verified instance of

920
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 2: this happening again, you could say, hey, maybe in a

921
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:42,160
Speaker 2: decade it'll get to prototype stage. And I know that

922
00:45:42,160 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 2: that's very frustrating for people to kind of take in

923
00:45:45,160 --> 00:45:47,800
Speaker 2: that timeline, but you know, it's like energy wasn't built.

924
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:50,400
Speaker 2: Rome wasn't built in a day, like oil took what

925
00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:53,480
Speaker 2: decades really to catch on really from its discovery. So

926
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:56,399
Speaker 2: these things move at a slower timeline than we might want.

927
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 2: But that doesn't mean that thirty forty years from now

928
00:45:58,480 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 2: we won't be living in a.

929
00:45:59,200 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 3: Very different reality.

930
00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:01,000
Speaker 4: Yeah.

931
00:46:01,040 --> 00:46:04,200
Speaker 1: So to put this really simply in terms of the science,

932
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:07,600
Speaker 1: so you know, if you saw Oppenheimer that was all

933
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 1: about splitting the atom apart, that's fission. This is fusion,

934
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:15,400
Speaker 1: which is taking two atoms, two lighter atoms, and making

935
00:46:15,440 --> 00:46:18,160
Speaker 1: them into one. So it's sort of like the opposite

936
00:46:18,440 --> 00:46:21,279
Speaker 1: of the nuclear reactions that we have been able to

937
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:22,359
Speaker 1: achieve for.

938
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:23,479
Speaker 4: Both good and ill.

939
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:28,000
Speaker 1: So in terms of what this would mean based on

940
00:46:28,880 --> 00:46:32,680
Speaker 1: we covered the original ability, the original test case where

941
00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 1: they were able to achieve this sort of increase in energy,

942
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:38,879
Speaker 1: which is like the gold standard for proving this out

943
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 1: as a concept of something that could potentially work for

944
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:45,080
Speaker 1: energy generation in the future. They say, these reactions emit

945
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:48,800
Speaker 1: no carbon, produce no long lived radioactive waste that's obviously

946
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:52,640
Speaker 1: an issue with nuclear power, and a small cup of

947
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:57,280
Speaker 1: the hydrogen fuel could theoretically power a house for hundreds

948
00:46:57,320 --> 00:46:58,120
Speaker 1: of years.

949
00:46:58,840 --> 00:47:00,120
Speaker 4: Also, in a hopeful.

950
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 1: Sign and this replication of the initial experiment, they were

951
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,520
Speaker 1: actually able to generate somewhat more energy than they were

952
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:10,000
Speaker 1: the first time around, which moves it one step closer

953
00:47:10,040 --> 00:47:13,399
Speaker 1: to being out of the lab and into some sort

954
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 1: of a practical application because that energy loss in terms

955
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:20,400
Speaker 1: of you know, if you're able to actually produce this

956
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 1: and a commercial capacity, it's still a very, very very

957
00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:26,680
Speaker 1: difficult challenge to solve. But the fact they were able

958
00:47:26,719 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 1: to increase the amount of energy that they obtained here

959
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 1: is an encouraging sign. So when a temper expectations like

960
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 1: you were saying, soccer is still a long time before

961
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:38,239
Speaker 1: they'd be able to figure out how to make this

962
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:40,360
Speaker 1: use for you know, commercial.

963
00:47:39,960 --> 00:47:42,280
Speaker 4: Applications or household applications, et cetera.

964
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:44,520
Speaker 1: We are a long way from that. But the fact

965
00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:47,040
Speaker 1: that this wasn't a what off that they were able

966
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:50,000
Speaker 1: to recreate. It is really exciting.

967
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:50,440
Speaker 4: And very encouraging.

968
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:54,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, the jump from the theoretical to the engineering side

969
00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:55,960
Speaker 2: is kind of interesting. So right now, one of the

970
00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 2: ways that they achieve it is through lasers, and one

971
00:47:58,040 --> 00:47:59,640
Speaker 2: of the only reasons they can do it once a

972
00:47:59,680 --> 00:48:02,000
Speaker 2: day is because the laser needs to cool down. The

973
00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:06,240
Speaker 2: problem is that to actually make this scalable and commercially viable,

974
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:09,360
Speaker 2: you can't just use the laser once a day. You

975
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:12,640
Speaker 2: have to use it quote several times a second. And

976
00:48:12,719 --> 00:48:14,960
Speaker 2: so getting from a point where you can use it

977
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 2: once a day to several times a second sounds like

978
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:19,160
Speaker 2: a little bit of an engineering challenge in order to

979
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:21,520
Speaker 2: try and make this commercially viable. Who knows if we'll

980
00:48:21,760 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 2: ever even be able to get there, but it certainly

981
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 2: does sound cool. And what the researchers are pointing to

982
00:48:28,239 --> 00:48:30,400
Speaker 2: is like, once you've got viability and you think you

983
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 2: start to move things into the realms of like material science,

984
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:35,760
Speaker 2: engineering and all that, it's not that it still can't fail.

985
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:38,920
Speaker 2: It's just that things it's like another step forward in

986
00:48:38,960 --> 00:48:42,080
Speaker 2: trying to make this technology actually move forward. That's why

987
00:48:42,160 --> 00:48:45,040
Speaker 2: I think it's particularly exciting. We see a lot of

988
00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:47,440
Speaker 2: the same issues in nuclear power. One of the bigger

989
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:50,439
Speaker 2: problems is around cost, and it's largely because we don't

990
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:55,239
Speaker 2: have the capacity to scale real largely because of commercial

991
00:48:55,840 --> 00:48:59,080
Speaker 2: factors in terms of design and things don't have economies

992
00:48:59,120 --> 00:49:01,759
Speaker 2: of scale develop There wasn't enough investment and a lot

993
00:49:01,760 --> 00:49:03,400
Speaker 2: of it was allowed to like rot on the line

994
00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:06,200
Speaker 2: over the last fifty years. So scale and the ability

995
00:49:06,480 --> 00:49:09,200
Speaker 2: to implement on a cheap or relatively cheap and consistent

996
00:49:09,239 --> 00:49:10,879
Speaker 2: basis is the most important thing.

997
00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:12,719
Speaker 3: Maybe we'll see it. I don't know. I don't know

998
00:49:12,760 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 3: if we'll see it in our lifetime, but I hope.

999
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:16,600
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, Well, just to get people a sense

1000
00:49:16,640 --> 00:49:19,560
Speaker 1: of the time frame that we could be talking about.

1001
00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:24,960
Speaker 1: This fusion reaction has been positive as theoretically possible since

1002
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 1: literally the fifties. They've been working on this, and it

1003
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:32,400
Speaker 1: wasn't until December of last year that they were finally

1004
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 1: even able to demonstrate in a lab under ideal conditions

1005
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:41,799
Speaker 1: the reaction that they have theorized for you know.

1006
00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 4: Seventy years, So you know, will it.

1007
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:47,960
Speaker 1: Take another seventy years to get out of the laboratory

1008
00:49:48,040 --> 00:49:50,560
Speaker 1: and out into the wider world impossible to say, but

1009
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:51,760
Speaker 1: just to give you a sense.

1010
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:53,640
Speaker 4: Of the timeframe that it took even.

1011
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:56,400
Speaker 1: To get to this initial step and then their ability

1012
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 1: to recreate it.

1013
00:49:57,760 --> 00:49:57,880
Speaker 4: All.

1014
00:49:57,960 --> 00:50:01,000
Speaker 1: Right, guys, one more cultural domanon that we wanted to

1015
00:50:01,000 --> 00:50:03,520
Speaker 1: take a look at, because this is coming down from

1016
00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:07,520
Speaker 1: the White House. There seems to be a major push

1017
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 1: really happening right now to get workers out of their

1018
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:13,960
Speaker 1: homes and back into the office. Of course, this is

1019
00:50:14,080 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 1: largely applies to white collar workers. Blue collar and service

1020
00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:20,359
Speaker 1: workers never had this luxury. But nevertheless, let's put this

1021
00:50:20,400 --> 00:50:24,200
Speaker 1: first part up on the screen. President Biden is pushing

1022
00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:28,600
Speaker 1: to unremote work era for federal government employees. It's calling

1023
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:32,760
Speaker 1: for his cabinet, according to Axios, to aggressively execute plans

1024
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:35,160
Speaker 1: for federal employees to work more in their offices this

1025
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:39,439
Speaker 1: fall after years of working remotely. This is the Biden

1026
00:50:39,480 --> 00:50:43,040
Speaker 1: administration's most overt push yet to get them back to

1027
00:50:43,080 --> 00:50:46,359
Speaker 1: their offices, a dynamic that many businesses have struggled with

1028
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:50,720
Speaker 1: as Americans are rather enjoying their remote or hybrid work situations.

1029
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:54,239
Speaker 1: But there's been political pressure on the White House to

1030
00:50:55,120 --> 00:50:58,880
Speaker 1: curb remote work that's come primarily from Republicans in Congress

1031
00:50:58,880 --> 00:51:02,960
Speaker 1: who blame remote work for delays and backlogs. On the

1032
00:51:03,000 --> 00:51:06,040
Speaker 1: other hand, Democrats and advocacy groups and unions largely blame

1033
00:51:06,120 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 1: lack of funding for the backlogs and site telework as

1034
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 1: a key tool in recruiting staff. I think there is

1035
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:15,040
Speaker 1: something to that, because we've seen workers willing to take

1036
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:18,680
Speaker 1: lower salaries if they get that flexibility in pay. You

1037
00:51:18,800 --> 00:51:21,880
Speaker 1: also had the DC Mayor, Muriel Bowser, who's very concerned

1038
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:23,760
Speaker 1: about her city, which we can attest to the fact

1039
00:51:23,840 --> 00:51:26,080
Speaker 1: is a lot emptier than it was pre pandemic.

1040
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:29,000
Speaker 4: She's really been pushing also to.

1041
00:51:28,920 --> 00:51:31,000
Speaker 1: Try to get the White House to force workers back

1042
00:51:31,000 --> 00:51:34,800
Speaker 1: in to try to revive the DC economy. She said recently,

1043
00:51:34,880 --> 00:51:37,239
Speaker 1: we need decisive action by the White House to either

1044
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 1: get most federal workers back to the office most of

1045
00:51:40,040 --> 00:51:42,680
Speaker 1: the time, or to realign their vast property holdings for

1046
00:51:42,800 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 1: use by the local government, nonprofits, businesses, and any user

1047
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:48,799
Speaker 1: willing to revitalize it. Because soccer, I mean, just like

1048
00:51:48,960 --> 00:51:51,399
Speaker 1: the office space all around the country that we were

1049
00:51:51,440 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 1: talking about, which has huge vacancy rates. The federal government

1050
00:51:56,120 --> 00:51:59,200
Speaker 1: now was so much of their workforce being remoter, at

1051
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:03,360
Speaker 1: least hybrid. Much of their office space is also completely vacant.

1052
00:52:03,360 --> 00:52:05,120
Speaker 1: So the city of DC is like, listen, hey, if

1053
00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:07,239
Speaker 1: you're not going to use it, at least let us

1054
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:10,319
Speaker 1: try to get a business in here or something going on,

1055
00:52:10,480 --> 00:52:12,719
Speaker 1: because you know this is killing us downtown.

1056
00:52:13,080 --> 00:52:14,480
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, here's the thing.

1057
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:17,400
Speaker 2: I have sympathy with people who want to work remote,

1058
00:52:17,560 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 2: but I was telling you yesterday, I saw that the

1059
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:22,799
Speaker 2: FAA is apparent many parts of the FAA, not just

1060
00:52:22,880 --> 00:52:25,160
Speaker 2: not the air traffic controllers per se, don't want to

1061
00:52:25,200 --> 00:52:28,080
Speaker 2: go back in the office. And I'm just like, look, guys,

1062
00:52:28,560 --> 00:52:31,960
Speaker 2: my flight was actually literally canceled because of FAA and competence.

1063
00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:35,440
Speaker 2: So unless that starts working properly, like, that's just not

1064
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:39,040
Speaker 2: going to fly. And so I think that whenever it

1065
00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:41,239
Speaker 2: comes to federal workers and all that, I don't really

1066
00:52:41,239 --> 00:52:43,719
Speaker 2: care about the state of Washington, DC. I do think

1067
00:52:43,719 --> 00:52:46,360
Speaker 2: it is pathetic how badly things are going down the

1068
00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:48,520
Speaker 2: tubes here. I don't think that's the federal government's fault.

1069
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:50,840
Speaker 2: And a lot of that has to do with Miro Bowser,

1070
00:52:50,840 --> 00:52:52,600
Speaker 2: and of course the people who live here who decide

1071
00:52:52,600 --> 00:52:54,440
Speaker 2: that this is the hell hole that they want to

1072
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:54,719
Speaker 2: live in.

1073
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:55,920
Speaker 3: Put that aside.

1074
00:52:56,560 --> 00:53:00,279
Speaker 2: I also think though, that this does show and signal

1075
00:53:00,520 --> 00:53:05,560
Speaker 2: how coercion on workers is almost certainly going We're almost

1076
00:53:05,560 --> 00:53:09,279
Speaker 2: certainly entering that era when you combine it with other

1077
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:11,719
Speaker 2: companies that are also doing this as a result of

1078
00:53:11,760 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 2: both city pressure, rising interest rates, and then frankly, just

1079
00:53:15,160 --> 00:53:18,719
Speaker 2: like a totally changing business environment, things are not only

1080
00:53:18,760 --> 00:53:21,359
Speaker 2: return They're not returning back to normal per se. They're

1081
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:23,920
Speaker 2: entering a new era where a lot of the zero

1082
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:26,400
Speaker 2: interest rate phenomenon and all that, and I'm talking specifically

1083
00:53:26,440 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 2: of the business world, and you know, the your ability

1084
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:30,879
Speaker 2: in order to float a lot of stuff on debt, a.

1085
00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:32,040
Speaker 3: Lot of that is going away.

1086
00:53:32,320 --> 00:53:33,759
Speaker 2: And I think we kind of see that with the

1087
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:37,480
Speaker 2: Zoom announcement that probably that one more than anything and

1088
00:53:37,600 --> 00:53:40,239
Speaker 2: any other company that we've seen call people back into

1089
00:53:40,280 --> 00:53:40,960
Speaker 2: the office.

1090
00:53:41,560 --> 00:53:43,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, let's put this up on the screen.

1091
00:53:43,480 --> 00:53:47,359
Speaker 1: So Zoom, the product that I am actually using right

1092
00:53:47,360 --> 00:53:49,759
Speaker 1: now to come to live from my house and which

1093
00:53:50,600 --> 00:53:53,360
Speaker 1: millions of office workers have been using for their meetings

1094
00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:58,360
Speaker 1: during the pandemic era, Zoom is now calling their employees

1095
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:01,759
Speaker 1: back to the office. Now, Well, this headline over sells it,

1096
00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:05,120
Speaker 1: in my opinion a little bit, because they are requiring

1097
00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:07,200
Speaker 1: their workers to be on site two days a week,

1098
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:10,520
Speaker 1: a hybrid approach, they say is most effective for Zoom.

1099
00:54:11,000 --> 00:54:13,360
Speaker 1: This is per a Zoom spokesperson, because it will be

1100
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:15,880
Speaker 1: in a better position to use our own technologies, continue

1101
00:54:15,880 --> 00:54:16,480
Speaker 1: to innovate and.

1102
00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:17,719
Speaker 4: Support our global customers.

1103
00:54:18,080 --> 00:54:22,359
Speaker 1: However, when you have the bedrock of the work from

1104
00:54:22,360 --> 00:54:26,120
Speaker 1: home infrastructure, when you have that company saying like we

1105
00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 1: want our employees back in the office, I do think

1106
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:31,120
Speaker 1: it is a sort of sign of the times. Now,

1107
00:54:31,200 --> 00:54:33,600
Speaker 1: let me give you the other side of the equation,

1108
00:54:33,840 --> 00:54:37,640
Speaker 1: which is remembers are we covered how actually the workers

1109
00:54:37,800 --> 00:54:41,839
Speaker 1: who liked remote and hybrid work the most were like

1110
00:54:42,400 --> 00:54:46,160
Speaker 1: the managers. It was the boss class. They've been enjoying

1111
00:54:46,200 --> 00:54:50,359
Speaker 1: it the most. And so that may actually make it

1112
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:54,160
Speaker 1: so that the trend back into the office is slower

1113
00:54:54,200 --> 00:54:56,600
Speaker 1: because the people who have the most power within the

1114
00:54:56,719 --> 00:55:00,640
Speaker 1: organization are the ones who are, you know, most reluctant

1115
00:55:00,960 --> 00:55:03,759
Speaker 1: to give it up. I also pulled there's some new

1116
00:55:03,840 --> 00:55:09,520
Speaker 1: research about the impact on productivity of workers working remotely.

1117
00:55:10,280 --> 00:55:13,480
Speaker 1: This is from Economists mag They compiled a number of

1118
00:55:13,840 --> 00:55:15,600
Speaker 1: studies from recent research.

1119
00:55:15,680 --> 00:55:17,040
Speaker 4: Let's put this up on the screen.

1120
00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:19,600
Speaker 1: I think we've got this for our last element, but

1121
00:55:19,680 --> 00:55:23,680
Speaker 1: they found that some of the original research seemed to

1122
00:55:23,760 --> 00:55:29,400
Speaker 1: indicate that work from home actually made workers more productive,

1123
00:55:29,480 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 1: that they got more done. There's now some updated research

1124
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:36,160
Speaker 1: that shows the opposite impact that some of these employers

1125
00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:38,280
Speaker 1: are leaning into of like, ah, now we've got studies

1126
00:55:38,280 --> 00:55:40,440
Speaker 1: that say it's actually makes you less productive, so we

1127
00:55:40,480 --> 00:55:43,600
Speaker 1: want your butts back at the office. But there's also

1128
00:55:43,719 --> 00:55:45,640
Speaker 1: a lot of research and to me, this is what's

1129
00:55:45,840 --> 00:55:49,239
Speaker 1: most important, that work from home and hybrid and just

1130
00:55:49,320 --> 00:55:54,400
Speaker 1: having choice in your work situation creates much happier employees.

1131
00:55:54,840 --> 00:55:58,560
Speaker 4: Like employee productivity is not the end all be all.

1132
00:55:58,640 --> 00:56:00,879
Speaker 1: Now, if there's critical functions that need to get done

1133
00:56:00,920 --> 00:56:03,040
Speaker 1: with federal government, et cetera, like, obviously you have to

1134
00:56:03,040 --> 00:56:06,160
Speaker 1: take that into account. But I think it's also important

1135
00:56:06,239 --> 00:56:09,120
Speaker 1: that we take into account how people's lives are and

1136
00:56:09,239 --> 00:56:12,360
Speaker 1: their work life balance and how much they're like enjoying

1137
00:56:12,360 --> 00:56:13,080
Speaker 1: their situation.

1138
00:56:13,880 --> 00:56:17,640
Speaker 4: And because you have very clear numbers.

1139
00:56:17,440 --> 00:56:21,399
Speaker 1: That people like remote work, they like having the choice

1140
00:56:21,440 --> 00:56:24,719
Speaker 1: of flexibility, they are willing to take pay cuts in

1141
00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:29,359
Speaker 1: order to maintain a hybrid work environment. I do think

1142
00:56:29,400 --> 00:56:32,360
Speaker 1: this trend is here to stay because you're going to

1143
00:56:32,440 --> 00:56:35,919
Speaker 1: have companies that are competing for workers based on how

1144
00:56:35,960 --> 00:56:38,480
Speaker 1: flexible their you know, work from home or hybrid work

1145
00:56:38,480 --> 00:56:39,120
Speaker 1: schedules are.

1146
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:42,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, and look, as I said, I think it's complicated,

1147
00:56:42,719 --> 00:56:44,880
Speaker 2: and the managers of course like it for a reason.

1148
00:56:44,960 --> 00:56:46,919
Speaker 2: I think there's a lot of cultural reasons also why

1149
00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:49,760
Speaker 2: work from home may actually not be beneficial to people

1150
00:56:50,440 --> 00:56:53,160
Speaker 2: we're younger and who are entering a workforce. So there's

1151
00:56:53,200 --> 00:56:54,880
Speaker 2: actually quite a lot to be said in terms of

1152
00:56:54,920 --> 00:56:57,680
Speaker 2: productivity and all that, don't you know, I don't doubt

1153
00:56:57,680 --> 00:57:00,680
Speaker 2: that really for a second. I've always believed like less

1154
00:57:00,800 --> 00:57:04,200
Speaker 2: or more flexibility, less rigidity around some of these things,

1155
00:57:04,239 --> 00:57:06,960
Speaker 2: in many cases is the best key to actually unlocking

1156
00:57:07,040 --> 00:57:09,759
Speaker 2: the specifically in a white collar environment. And obviously all

1157
00:57:09,760 --> 00:57:11,480
Speaker 2: of that is going to be different when you're talking

1158
00:57:11,520 --> 00:57:13,200
Speaker 2: about people who work blue collar, who are like, what

1159
00:57:13,239 --> 00:57:14,759
Speaker 2: the hell are you guys even talking about this is

1160
00:57:14,800 --> 00:57:18,080
Speaker 2: a completely luxury conversation. I always try to remember them too,

1161
00:57:18,120 --> 00:57:20,240
Speaker 2: because so many of them didn't have the luxury of

1162
00:57:20,240 --> 00:57:23,200
Speaker 2: working from home. They were going to work throughout the pandemic.

1163
00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:25,600
Speaker 2: They never stopped, you know, they still had to deal

1164
00:57:25,640 --> 00:57:29,520
Speaker 2: with all the inconveniences of the COVID restrictions and problems,

1165
00:57:29,560 --> 00:57:31,720
Speaker 2: and if anything, they're the ones who've been hit worse,

1166
00:57:31,880 --> 00:57:34,400
Speaker 2: you know, by this entire thing. Their wages have not

1167
00:57:34,840 --> 00:57:37,640
Speaker 2: kept up with inflation, they still have to commute, they

1168
00:57:37,640 --> 00:57:39,280
Speaker 2: don't have the luxury of being able to move to

1169
00:57:39,680 --> 00:57:42,240
Speaker 2: a town with nicer weather and all of that.

1170
00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:43,680
Speaker 3: So you always got to keep them in mind when

1171
00:57:43,720 --> 00:57:44,440
Speaker 3: we're talking about this.

1172
00:57:45,160 --> 00:57:47,880
Speaker 1: Sure, but that doesn't mean that, you know, what we

1173
00:57:47,920 --> 00:57:51,160
Speaker 1: should be aspiring to is bettering their situation, not making

1174
00:57:51,200 --> 00:57:53,640
Speaker 1: things should bear for the white collar workers, which is

1175
00:57:53,640 --> 00:57:57,160
Speaker 1: why you know, the uaw I covered yesterday their potential

1176
00:57:57,200 --> 00:57:59,800
Speaker 1: strike and their contract negotiations that are going on right now.

1177
00:58:00,160 --> 00:58:03,240
Speaker 1: One of the key demands there is better work life balance,

1178
00:58:03,920 --> 00:58:06,800
Speaker 1: more paid time off. Obviously that was a key demand

1179
00:58:06,920 --> 00:58:10,000
Speaker 1: of the railway workers. So I mean this should obviously

1180
00:58:10,040 --> 00:58:11,840
Speaker 1: should be done at the federal level, but we should

1181
00:58:11,840 --> 00:58:16,560
Speaker 1: also be encouraging and supporting those efforts at workplace by

1182
00:58:16,600 --> 00:58:19,720
Speaker 1: workplace and union by union to achieve those same benefits,

1183
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:21,920
Speaker 1: because yeah, I mean, there's some jobs that you can't

1184
00:58:22,000 --> 00:58:22,640
Speaker 1: do from home.

1185
00:58:22,760 --> 00:58:24,560
Speaker 4: You have to be there.

1186
00:58:25,280 --> 00:58:28,080
Speaker 1: But we should also be doing our best to consider

1187
00:58:28,280 --> 00:58:31,800
Speaker 1: the happiness and work life balance of people in all

1188
00:58:31,840 --> 00:58:33,880
Speaker 1: sectors of our society in my humble.

1189
00:58:33,600 --> 00:58:36,000
Speaker 3: Opinion, no question no questionnaire.

1190
00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:41,480
Speaker 2: All right, Zachary be looking at Yesterday I did a

1191
00:58:41,520 --> 00:58:44,200
Speaker 2: monologue about how Western sanctions have failed to deter the

1192
00:58:44,320 --> 00:58:47,200
Speaker 2: Russian war effort in Ukraine, how their failure has revealed

1193
00:58:47,240 --> 00:58:50,160
Speaker 2: that the United States, and specifically the Biden administration have

1194
00:58:50,280 --> 00:58:53,200
Speaker 2: really revealed the declining say of America in the affairs

1195
00:58:53,200 --> 00:58:55,280
Speaker 2: of the world. That's more of a metapoint to which

1196
00:58:55,320 --> 00:58:58,040
Speaker 2: many people say, so, what, how does that really affect me?

1197
00:58:58,400 --> 00:59:02,000
Speaker 2: Unfortunately for all of us out our hardest way, whenever

1198
00:59:02,040 --> 00:59:04,360
Speaker 2: it comes to the price of gas, I'm sure enough

1199
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:06,400
Speaker 2: to tell you this because you already know the price

1200
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:09,120
Speaker 2: of gas is beginning to go up. The current average

1201
00:59:09,120 --> 00:59:12,200
Speaker 2: price across the United States is three dollars and eighty

1202
00:59:12,240 --> 00:59:15,479
Speaker 2: two cents, rising, already up thirty cents from just last month.

1203
00:59:15,800 --> 00:59:19,080
Speaker 2: Gas remains stubbornly over five dollars a gallon in California,

1204
00:59:19,120 --> 00:59:22,800
Speaker 2: and high prices are dominating the Western United States, Northeast

1205
00:59:22,840 --> 00:59:23,720
Speaker 2: and also Florida.

1206
00:59:23,920 --> 00:59:24,560
Speaker 3: What's going on?

1207
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:28,200
Speaker 2: It's actually directly related to a Biden failing foreign policy

1208
00:59:28,320 --> 00:59:31,160
Speaker 2: and also relates right back to Russia and to Ukraine.

1209
00:59:31,360 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 2: In the last month, Saudi Arabia has teamed up with

1210
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:37,840
Speaker 2: Russia to deepen cuts to global oil production, despite warnings

1211
00:59:37,840 --> 00:59:41,200
Speaker 2: from the International Energy Agency that crude markets are likely

1212
00:59:41,240 --> 00:59:44,720
Speaker 2: to set and tighten significantly in the next few months.

1213
00:59:44,920 --> 00:59:47,760
Speaker 2: The preliminary cut by Saudi Arabia and by Russia was

1214
00:59:47,800 --> 00:59:50,240
Speaker 2: then followed up with a new statement by just days

1215
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:53,520
Speaker 2: ago by RIOD that not only were the existing cuts staying,

1216
00:59:53,760 --> 00:59:56,640
Speaker 2: but that they would likely continue all through the summer

1217
00:59:56,880 --> 00:59:59,960
Speaker 2: to support higher oil prices and thus higher gas price

1218
01:00:00,400 --> 01:00:03,280
Speaker 2: here in the US. Oil remains the number one driver

1219
01:00:03,400 --> 01:00:06,200
Speaker 2: of inflation here in the US for a number of reasons. First,

1220
01:00:06,400 --> 01:00:09,240
Speaker 2: is a product you need regardless of price. More importantly,

1221
01:00:09,320 --> 01:00:11,800
Speaker 2: it is a higher price, and it is reflected across

1222
01:00:11,840 --> 01:00:15,600
Speaker 2: the entire supply chain. Anything from materials to food that

1223
01:00:15,680 --> 01:00:18,200
Speaker 2: needs to be transported is going to be impacted by

1224
01:00:18,200 --> 01:00:21,360
Speaker 2: the price of oil and specifically diesel. In just the

1225
01:00:21,440 --> 01:00:25,080
Speaker 2: last three months, wholesale diesel costs have jumped forty six percent,

1226
01:00:25,360 --> 01:00:28,680
Speaker 2: jet fuels up forty gas has rose nineteen This is

1227
01:00:28,720 --> 01:00:32,200
Speaker 2: going to massively impact FED policy. If high gas prices

1228
01:00:32,240 --> 01:00:34,560
Speaker 2: remain throughout the next year or so, it will continue

1229
01:00:34,600 --> 01:00:37,600
Speaker 2: to encourage the Federal Reserve, pushing interest rates even higher

1230
01:00:37,800 --> 01:00:41,560
Speaker 2: aimed at getting Americans to consume less. The sledgehammer to

1231
01:00:41,600 --> 01:00:44,600
Speaker 2: the economy could easily put us back even more of

1232
01:00:44,600 --> 01:00:47,480
Speaker 2: a recession when we're already in. It could even trigger

1233
01:00:47,520 --> 01:00:50,160
Speaker 2: a large collapse. The worst part is that we have

1234
01:00:50,320 --> 01:00:53,480
Speaker 2: literally no barrier to save the US economy should we

1235
01:00:53,520 --> 01:00:55,600
Speaker 2: even get to that point. At the very same time

1236
01:00:55,600 --> 01:00:58,560
Speaker 2: that Russia and Saudi Arabia are voluntarily cutting oil, we

1237
01:00:58,640 --> 01:01:01,960
Speaker 2: are sitting bone dry with very little reserve. The US

1238
01:01:02,000 --> 01:01:05,320
Speaker 2: Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently is at its lowest level since

1239
01:01:05,360 --> 01:01:09,520
Speaker 2: November of nineteen eighty five. Why well, for several reasons.

1240
01:01:09,680 --> 01:01:12,520
Speaker 2: One is that Biden actually began tapping the Strategic Petroleum

1241
01:01:12,560 --> 01:01:15,680
Speaker 2: Reserve all throughout twenty twenty two. I actually largely supported

1242
01:01:15,680 --> 01:01:17,480
Speaker 2: that action, even though I think it came far too

1243
01:01:17,560 --> 01:01:20,120
Speaker 2: late to actually have a meaningful effect on price. But

1244
01:01:20,240 --> 01:01:23,000
Speaker 2: the issue is that Biden expended so much of the

1245
01:01:23,080 --> 01:01:26,240
Speaker 2: SPR and had no plan to replenish it. Since then,

1246
01:01:26,400 --> 01:01:29,480
Speaker 2: the Energy Department has consistently said they have to delay

1247
01:01:29,520 --> 01:01:32,080
Speaker 2: the replenishment of the SPR because a market price of

1248
01:01:32,120 --> 01:01:34,439
Speaker 2: oil is too high. This, of course is a bad

1249
01:01:34,480 --> 01:01:36,720
Speaker 2: signal to the market and others keep the price high

1250
01:01:36,760 --> 01:01:39,440
Speaker 2: as long as possible force Washington to put it hey

1251
01:01:39,600 --> 01:01:42,480
Speaker 2: whatever they want. It is also a major point of

1252
01:01:42,560 --> 01:01:45,920
Speaker 2: foreign leverage that international oil producers have over the US.

1253
01:01:46,240 --> 01:01:49,480
Speaker 2: Just last week, the administration announced it is again delaying

1254
01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:53,800
Speaker 2: the SPR replenishment, leaving reserves extraordinarily low as we head

1255
01:01:53,800 --> 01:01:57,200
Speaker 2: into a season of likely even higher prices. This is

1256
01:01:57,280 --> 01:01:59,320
Speaker 2: bad because if we head back up to five or

1257
01:01:59,360 --> 01:02:01,760
Speaker 2: six dollars again on there's not very much left in

1258
01:02:01,800 --> 01:02:06,120
Speaker 2: the tank literally to release and lower the overall price. Overall,

1259
01:02:06,160 --> 01:02:09,120
Speaker 2: it shows that our foreign policy is leaving us incredibly

1260
01:02:09,200 --> 01:02:12,840
Speaker 2: vulnerable here, both economically and politically, at the hands of

1261
01:02:12,920 --> 01:02:16,360
Speaker 2: the Saudis and of the Russians. Already, international analysts are

1262
01:02:16,360 --> 01:02:19,160
Speaker 2: predicting the NBS and Putin are going to use the

1263
01:02:19,160 --> 01:02:21,520
Speaker 2: price of oil to try and hurt Biden's political chances

1264
01:02:21,560 --> 01:02:25,120
Speaker 2: before the election. That is almost certainly true, and honestly,

1265
01:02:25,200 --> 01:02:27,400
Speaker 2: it is his own fault. There was a moment two

1266
01:02:27,440 --> 01:02:29,520
Speaker 2: years ago when the price of gas was trending up

1267
01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:32,760
Speaker 2: when some truly innovative policy action could have triggered more

1268
01:02:32,800 --> 01:02:35,880
Speaker 2: refining of oil, more domestic production. If you combine that

1269
01:02:35,920 --> 01:02:38,520
Speaker 2: with better foreign policy and coercion of Saudi Arabia, we

1270
01:02:38,560 --> 01:02:41,400
Speaker 2: would not be in this mess right now. Instead, Putin

1271
01:02:41,480 --> 01:02:44,040
Speaker 2: and MBS have now read their man. They know that

1272
01:02:44,040 --> 01:02:45,960
Speaker 2: Biden is not actually going to do anything to cut

1273
01:02:45,960 --> 01:02:48,800
Speaker 2: off Saudi Arabia or punish them, just as here we

1274
01:02:48,880 --> 01:02:52,400
Speaker 2: continue to ship them billions of dollars of weapons. They

1275
01:02:52,440 --> 01:02:55,240
Speaker 2: know that they can be openly disrespected, and all that

1276
01:02:55,280 --> 01:02:59,480
Speaker 2: will really happen is a strongly worded statement from Biden. Putin, meanwhile,

1277
01:02:59,560 --> 01:03:02,720
Speaker 2: is open suddenly showing that the so called Western boycott

1278
01:03:02,720 --> 01:03:05,720
Speaker 2: of Russian oil that he is confident enough that buyers

1279
01:03:05,880 --> 01:03:09,120
Speaker 2: he can even cut production and increase the price on

1280
01:03:09,160 --> 01:03:12,840
Speaker 2: his Asian buyers with no repercussions at all. All of

1281
01:03:12,880 --> 01:03:15,000
Speaker 2: this could lead to a terrible scenario, really not that

1282
01:03:15,080 --> 01:03:19,640
Speaker 2: far away sky high oil price, declining economic prospects, no

1283
01:03:19,720 --> 01:03:23,480
Speaker 2: way out. The entire reason the Strategic Petroleum Reserve exists

1284
01:03:23,880 --> 01:03:25,920
Speaker 2: is because the US went through the horror of the

1285
01:03:25,960 --> 01:03:27,040
Speaker 2: oil embargo.

1286
01:03:26,760 --> 01:03:27,920
Speaker 3: In the nineteen seventies.

1287
01:03:28,120 --> 01:03:31,960
Speaker 2: The irony is we somehow are still dependent on in

1288
01:03:32,000 --> 01:03:35,080
Speaker 2: many cases, the same nations for gas, with almost no

1289
01:03:35,200 --> 01:03:38,320
Speaker 2: innovation in our oil infrastructure since then. The failure of

1290
01:03:38,400 --> 01:03:40,840
Speaker 2: imagination and the short term thinking here of the Biden

1291
01:03:40,840 --> 01:03:45,320
Speaker 2: administration has left us incredibly vulnerable. Crystal, I'm curious what

1292
01:03:45,360 --> 01:03:47,320
Speaker 2: you make of all of this, specifically, you know, the

1293
01:03:47,440 --> 01:03:49,040
Speaker 2: spr getting drawn downs.

1294
01:03:48,840 --> 01:03:51,680
Speaker 1: And if you want to hear my reaction to Sagre's monologue,

1295
01:03:51,720 --> 01:03:57,920
Speaker 1: become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com.

1296
01:03:58,040 --> 01:03:59,680
Speaker 3: Cristal, what are you taking a look at.

1297
01:04:00,080 --> 01:04:03,200
Speaker 1: Hugch election today in the state of Ohio that could

1298
01:04:03,240 --> 01:04:06,320
Speaker 1: be potentially bell weather for twenty twenty four. Let's go

1299
01:04:06,360 --> 01:04:08,280
Speaker 1: and put this up on the screen. The backstory here

1300
01:04:08,320 --> 01:04:11,160
Speaker 1: is also really interesting. This is from Bolts magazine. They

1301
01:04:11,160 --> 01:04:13,680
Speaker 1: say an attempt to full voters, Ohio GOP sets up

1302
01:04:13,760 --> 01:04:18,040
Speaker 1: vote to weaken direct democracy. Let me explain what's at stake.

1303
01:04:18,080 --> 01:04:21,080
Speaker 1: They say, voters will decide today whether to adopt a

1304
01:04:21,120 --> 01:04:25,240
Speaker 1: proposal that would increase the threshold to change Ohio's constitution

1305
01:04:25,360 --> 01:04:27,320
Speaker 1: from fifty to sixty percent.

1306
01:04:27,760 --> 01:04:28,960
Speaker 4: That would make it harder.

1307
01:04:28,680 --> 01:04:31,480
Speaker 1: For residents to get constitutional amendments on the ballot in

1308
01:04:31,520 --> 01:04:34,360
Speaker 1: the first place as well. So the idea here in

1309
01:04:34,440 --> 01:04:37,200
Speaker 1: terms of what's being voted on today is you can

1310
01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:40,120
Speaker 1: vote yes and instead of being able to change the

1311
01:04:40,120 --> 01:04:43,680
Speaker 1: Ohio Constitution by fifty plus one, that threshold would go

1312
01:04:43,760 --> 01:04:47,640
Speaker 1: up to sixty plus one. But the backstory here is

1313
01:04:47,680 --> 01:04:51,040
Speaker 1: part of what makes this sort of democracy ballot initiative

1314
01:04:51,360 --> 01:04:55,320
Speaker 1: so interesting, because in the fall, there is a ballot

1315
01:04:55,320 --> 01:04:58,240
Speaker 1: initiative that voters are going to have a choice to

1316
01:04:58,320 --> 01:05:04,320
Speaker 1: vote on that is, would add a reproductive rights constitutional

1317
01:05:04,400 --> 01:05:08,880
Speaker 1: amendment into the Ohio Constitution. Right now, the pro choice

1318
01:05:08,880 --> 01:05:12,200
Speaker 1: side is winning that fight dramatically in terms of what

1319
01:05:12,320 --> 01:05:17,400
Speaker 1: the polls say. So Republicans realizing they are unlikely to

1320
01:05:17,560 --> 01:05:20,600
Speaker 1: win at the ballot box in the fall on this

1321
01:05:20,720 --> 01:05:24,600
Speaker 1: abortion access constitutional amendment, they want to change the rules

1322
01:05:24,600 --> 01:05:26,960
Speaker 1: of the game so that they've got a better shot

1323
01:05:27,360 --> 01:05:31,360
Speaker 1: at being able to block that abortion rights constitutional amendment

1324
01:05:31,360 --> 01:05:33,920
Speaker 1: from coming. So they did a bunch of maneuvering to

1325
01:05:33,960 --> 01:05:36,440
Speaker 1: try to get this thing on the ballot super early

1326
01:05:36,560 --> 01:05:39,240
Speaker 1: here in August. It's an odd time, and they'd previously

1327
01:05:39,280 --> 01:05:42,400
Speaker 1: been against August elections, but let's put that aside, and

1328
01:05:42,480 --> 01:05:44,360
Speaker 1: so they are trying to make it so that it'll

1329
01:05:44,400 --> 01:05:48,800
Speaker 1: be a lot harder to get that abortion rights amendment through.

1330
01:05:49,280 --> 01:05:51,840
Speaker 1: Thus far, though it doesn't look like the plan is

1331
01:05:51,880 --> 01:05:53,280
Speaker 1: working out too well for them.

1332
01:05:53,400 --> 01:05:54,880
Speaker 4: Let's put this up on the screen, so.

1333
01:05:54,920 --> 01:05:58,240
Speaker 1: First you can see this is the support per a

1334
01:05:58,360 --> 01:06:03,200
Speaker 1: USA Today poll or the abortion rights amendment. Fifty eight

1335
01:06:03,240 --> 01:06:06,360
Speaker 1: percent of residents in Ohio, which at this point is

1336
01:06:06,440 --> 01:06:09,440
Speaker 1: quite a red state, are in favor of adding that

1337
01:06:09,520 --> 01:06:13,360
Speaker 1: amendment to guarantee access to reproductive services, whereas thirty two

1338
01:06:13,400 --> 01:06:17,040
Speaker 1: percent are opposed. But on this ballot measure that is

1339
01:06:17,360 --> 01:06:19,560
Speaker 1: being voted on today, let's put this up on the screen,

1340
01:06:19,720 --> 01:06:23,919
Speaker 1: you also have a very lopsided result. Only twenty six

1341
01:06:24,040 --> 01:06:29,800
Speaker 1: percent of Ohio voters support changing the threshold to sixty

1342
01:06:29,920 --> 01:06:34,320
Speaker 1: percent over fifty seven percent who say no, we want

1343
01:06:34,320 --> 01:06:37,600
Speaker 1: to keep the direct democracy that we have as it is.

1344
01:06:38,040 --> 01:06:40,560
Speaker 1: According to Boltz Magazine, this is part of a broader

1345
01:06:40,560 --> 01:06:46,040
Speaker 1: push among Republican parties across the country who realize at

1346
01:06:46,080 --> 01:06:50,200
Speaker 1: this point that when they have these pro choice versus

1347
01:06:50,240 --> 01:06:54,400
Speaker 1: pro life ballot amendments, that voters are overwhelmingly backing the

1348
01:06:54,640 --> 01:06:57,640
Speaker 1: more liberal pro choice position. And so there's been a

1349
01:06:57,720 --> 01:07:00,000
Speaker 1: number of states where they've tried to change the rules

1350
01:07:00,400 --> 01:07:03,320
Speaker 1: of direct democracy to give their side a better chance.

1351
01:07:03,640 --> 01:07:07,840
Speaker 1: Bolt Magazine name checks Arkansas Republicans. They recently passed a

1352
01:07:07,920 --> 01:07:10,360
Speaker 1: law that makes it harder to qualify for ballot measures.

1353
01:07:10,720 --> 01:07:13,800
Speaker 1: Utah did the same. Arizona Republicans tried to do the

1354
01:07:13,800 --> 01:07:18,120
Speaker 1: same last fall. Republican legislators in Florida, idahom Missouri, North Dakota,

1355
01:07:18,160 --> 01:07:21,880
Speaker 1: and Oklahoma have made similar attempts, and now Ohio is

1356
01:07:21,960 --> 01:07:25,120
Speaker 1: trying to play the same game. So that's what's actually

1357
01:07:25,160 --> 01:07:29,280
Speaker 1: on the ballot right now. Thus far, it looks like

1358
01:07:29,440 --> 01:07:34,360
Speaker 1: turnout for this kind of random August special election is

1359
01:07:34,600 --> 01:07:36,280
Speaker 1: absolutely through the roof.

1360
01:07:36,560 --> 01:07:37,800
Speaker 4: Put this up on the screen.

1361
01:07:38,560 --> 01:07:42,600
Speaker 1: Analysts looking at how many ballots have been cast early

1362
01:07:42,680 --> 01:07:47,160
Speaker 1: thus far say that they are at goubernatorial level of

1363
01:07:48,000 --> 01:07:52,200
Speaker 1: voting in this issue one referendum election.

1364
01:07:52,040 --> 01:07:53,200
Speaker 4: Which is pretty wild.

1365
01:07:53,720 --> 01:07:56,200
Speaker 1: As of last Wednesday, more than five hundred and thirty

1366
01:07:56,240 --> 01:07:58,920
Speaker 1: three thousand people had voted by mail or in person

1367
01:07:58,960 --> 01:08:03,320
Speaker 1: since early votings started. That's nearly double the final early

1368
01:08:03,440 --> 01:08:07,440
Speaker 1: voting figures for Ohio's two previous mid term primary elections,

1369
01:08:07,480 --> 01:08:10,320
Speaker 1: which included races for governor and for Congress.

1370
01:08:11,240 --> 01:08:15,680
Speaker 4: So again take that in. As of last Wednesday.

1371
01:08:15,600 --> 01:08:19,400
Speaker 1: They already had doubled the turnout for the two previous

1372
01:08:19,439 --> 01:08:23,760
Speaker 1: midterm primary elections. So there's obviously huge interest in this

1373
01:08:23,920 --> 01:08:26,519
Speaker 1: there's been a lot of money that has flooded into

1374
01:08:26,560 --> 01:08:30,479
Speaker 1: the state on both sides of this issue. And you know,

1375
01:08:30,520 --> 01:08:33,200
Speaker 1: a lot of billionaire money coming in on the side

1376
01:08:33,280 --> 01:08:36,400
Speaker 1: of vote yes, which would you know, undermine the direct

1377
01:08:36,439 --> 01:08:39,920
Speaker 1: democracy of Ohio citizens. And the last thing I'll say

1378
01:08:39,960 --> 01:08:42,920
Speaker 1: here in Theniwai and get Socker's reaction is five point

1379
01:08:42,920 --> 01:08:46,040
Speaker 1: thirty eight recently tracked how all of these special elections

1380
01:08:46,080 --> 01:08:49,280
Speaker 1: are going across the country and it's actually quite interesting

1381
01:08:49,320 --> 01:08:53,080
Speaker 1: put this up on the screen. There has in twenty

1382
01:08:53,160 --> 01:08:57,240
Speaker 1: twenty three been a very lopsided result in favor of

1383
01:08:57,280 --> 01:09:00,400
Speaker 1: Democrats in these special elections. So even in stricts that

1384
01:09:00,439 --> 01:09:05,800
Speaker 1: are overwhelmingly read, Democrats are narrow narrowing the gap. But

1385
01:09:05,920 --> 01:09:08,920
Speaker 1: in districts that are purple they are winning. In districts

1386
01:09:08,920 --> 01:09:12,560
Speaker 1: that they are that are blue, they're winning by blowout margins.

1387
01:09:13,080 --> 01:09:15,880
Speaker 1: This analysis by five thirty eight found that in thirty

1388
01:09:15,920 --> 01:09:18,559
Speaker 1: eight special elections held so far this year, Democrats have

1389
01:09:18,600 --> 01:09:22,599
Speaker 1: outperformed the partisan lean of the areas where the races

1390
01:09:22,600 --> 01:09:26,240
Speaker 1: were held by an average of ten percentage points. They say,

1391
01:09:26,320 --> 01:09:28,439
Speaker 1: romping in parts of the country that typically support the

1392
01:09:28,479 --> 01:09:31,240
Speaker 1: party while cutting down on GP margins in red cities

1393
01:09:31,280 --> 01:09:35,559
Speaker 1: and counties too. So Democrats so far in the thirty

1394
01:09:35,560 --> 01:09:39,120
Speaker 1: eight special elections that have been held this year, outperforming

1395
01:09:39,320 --> 01:09:44,040
Speaker 1: by double digits. And I think, Sager, it shows, you know,

1396
01:09:44,120 --> 01:09:48,040
Speaker 1: the impact of Dobbs and the overturning of Roe versus

1397
01:09:48,080 --> 01:09:51,600
Speaker 1: Wade has completely upended our politics and it was not

1398
01:09:51,680 --> 01:09:54,559
Speaker 1: a flash in the pan. This continues to be a

1399
01:09:54,600 --> 01:09:58,880
Speaker 1: really determinative issue in terms of how voters are casting

1400
01:09:58,920 --> 01:09:59,519
Speaker 1: their ballots.

1401
01:10:00,040 --> 01:10:02,479
Speaker 2: Absolutely, I mean looks and if you want to hear

1402
01:10:02,640 --> 01:10:06,080
Speaker 2: my reaction to Crystal's monologue, become a premium subscriber today

1403
01:10:06,120 --> 01:10:11,400
Speaker 2: at Breakingpoints dot com. All Right, guys, thank you so

1404
01:10:11,520 --> 01:10:13,479
Speaker 2: much for watching bearing with us, and we'll have a

1405
01:10:13,479 --> 01:10:14,839
Speaker 2: full show for everybody on Thursday.

1406
01:10:14,840 --> 01:10:16,160
Speaker 3: We're excited for it. We'll see you then,