Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets as me Joey P joe P Zapia and
Speaker 1: the NFL Draft is just days away. Now. We've been
Speaker 1: so excited. We've done so many mock draft shows over
Speaker 1: on Fantasy Pros and of course don't forget on Fantasy
Speaker 1: Pros Night one, Night two of the NFL Draft, we
Speaker 1: will be live join US seven Eastern for the NFL
Speaker 1: Draft coverage with myself and my guest today, the man,
Speaker 1: the myth, the legend, the Minnesota mad Man himself, Thor Nystrom,
Speaker 1: the great draft connoisseur that you are, and he's gonna
Speaker 1: help us today with some wagers for the NFL Draft.
Speaker 1: To make sure when you're making your wagers you're using
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros app downloaded. If you haven't sink your
Speaker 1: sports book, and I'm telling you right now, it's gonna
Speaker 1: help you become a better sports better and Thor there's
Speaker 1: nobody better when it comes to betting in college sports,
Speaker 1: whether it be we're talking about the college football combine,
Speaker 1: we're talking about college in season stuff. But this is
Speaker 1: the NFL Draft. This is all you live for. This
Speaker 1: is all you eat, sleep, and drink for the last oh,
Speaker 1: I don't know, three months. It feels like so thor
Speaker 1: we're ready to break down, And I got to tell
Speaker 1: you right now, we're gonna start here with the breakdown
Speaker 1: of JJ McCarthy because we've talked a lot about JJ McCarthy,
Speaker 1: and we've talked a lot about your Minnesota vikings potentially
Speaker 1: taking him. So let's start with your favorite bets and
Speaker 1: let's start with the Michigan QB.
Speaker 2: Yeah. So yeah, we'll dive right in.
Speaker 3: It's too bad that they didn't drop slot props back
Speaker 3: in February when he was seen as a round two pick.
Speaker 3: But I still think that JJ McCarthy is bettable right now.
Speaker 3: With where the betting odds are, You go to the
Speaker 3: betting pros app, look around at the best odds that
Speaker 3: you can find in the marketplace, shop around which which
Speaker 3: you can find those on the betting pros app. That
Speaker 3: the best odds that you can find out there right
Speaker 3: now live JJ McCarthy to be the number three overall pick.
Speaker 3: You can get that at four to one, so that
Speaker 3: I think there is some meat on the bone there.
Speaker 3: You want to go a little bit longer shot, but
Speaker 3: a more conventional bet there JJ McCarthy. His slot prop
Speaker 3: at under five and a half. You have to pay
Speaker 3: min but I certainly think that there is value there.
Speaker 3: There's been smoke around the Patriots slot at number three
Speaker 3: that they could consider him. There's been rumors of the
Speaker 3: commander's slot at number two that they could be interested
Speaker 3: in JJ. And of course the trade possibilities at four
Speaker 3: and five as well, those would be in play for
Speaker 3: JJ McCarthy as well. The vikings are out there, they
Speaker 3: are out there publicly with their interest in trading up
Speaker 3: to acquire a quarterback. JJ McCarthy is a fit in
Speaker 3: Kevin O'Connell's offense obviously as well, so Jada McCarthy. I'm
Speaker 3: going under that five and a half and I also,
Speaker 3: to take the long shot, would go the four to
Speaker 3: one at the number three slot.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the next set of bets
Speaker 1: here for first cornerback taken and first defender taken. You
Speaker 1: have a strong opinion on this. Let's talk about Quinean Mitchell.
Speaker 3: This is another combo one for me. Quinnyon Mitchell, the
Speaker 3: first cornerback off the board, that that's the more conventional one.
Speaker 3: At conventional odds Quinia Mitchell. I'm going to take that
Speaker 3: one at minus one twenty five juice, but the longer
Speaker 3: shot one and this is even longer. The longer shot bet,
Speaker 3: but I like this one at fifteen to one odds.
Speaker 3: The first defender off the board quin Yon Mitchell. The
Speaker 3: guy that I am fading for first defender off the
Speaker 3: board is Dallas Turner, who is the favorite at minus
Speaker 3: money against the entire board. We'll see if I'm proven
Speaker 3: wrong on this. I disagree with that Dallas Turner is
Speaker 3: my third edge defender on my board.
Speaker 2: I think that there are some holes.
Speaker 3: In his game that maybe the draft media is maybe
Speaker 3: not acknowledging quite as much in deference for his athletic profile.
Speaker 3: And furthermore, the you know, the Falcons are the obviously
Speaker 3: at the very top of the board, it's going to
Speaker 3: go offense, offense, offense. Here's what we've been talking about
Speaker 3: this entire time. The Falcons is that first stop where
Speaker 3: we start to talk about defense. And it's like sort
Speaker 3: of in the freeze when people consider that it assuming
Speaker 3: that the first three receivers are already off the board
Speaker 3: at that time, where it's been the edge defender invariably Turner,
Speaker 3: which the betting odds, they generally just go with what
Speaker 3: the mock drafts out there. They're being informed by that
Speaker 3: because that's where the betting action goes, and that's how
Speaker 3: you know it typically goes with these sorts of things.
Speaker 3: But Dallas Turner has been the popular one because he
Speaker 3: has been the top edge on a lot of these
Speaker 3: boards out there by a lot of my media brethren.
Speaker 3: I'm not so sure that that Atlanta ends up going edge,
Speaker 3: and even if they did, you know, who knows. If
Speaker 3: they end up going Turner, like I said, they might
Speaker 3: go cornerback. And if they do, like I said, I
Speaker 3: believe that they would go quinnyon Mitchell. At fifteen to one,
Speaker 3: I think those are pretty incredible odds. And also, you know,
Speaker 3: beyond that, I think a lot too is pretty decent
Speaker 3: odds there. He has come way way down the market
Speaker 3: was correct, I think in that he started out. I
Speaker 3: don't have the odds right in front of me, but
Speaker 3: he was way way juice. He has come down to
Speaker 3: like three and a half to one currently. That one
Speaker 3: is just a bet on. Did NFL teams get decent
Speaker 3: news on his medicals at the NFL combine, he is
Speaker 3: the best edge defender in this class if the team's
Speaker 3: medical personnels are reasonably confident in the news that they
Speaker 3: got back on that he was absolutely incredible the past
Speaker 3: couple of years, and the athletic profile as well, in
Speaker 3: conjunction with the pass rushing profile which is all over
Speaker 3: his film, is just absolutely stupid. He is a safer
Speaker 3: bet than Dallas Turner and certainly is qualitatively several levels
Speaker 3: above him. Right now, that would be the other one
Speaker 3: you could look at, and one other just sort of
Speaker 3: long shot in this vein I think right now that
Speaker 3: is gaining a bit of steam light to potentially sniff
Speaker 3: around at if that's your prerogative, would be Byron Murphy.
Speaker 1: All right, Byron Murphy in there too. So this being
Speaker 1: you know, you kind of dropped out that the Alatta
Speaker 1: Falcons would be that team there, would you be also
Speaker 1: wagering for the Letta Falcons to take a defensive player
Speaker 1: as well, since obviously that seems to be the way
Speaker 1: that you're focusing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, so this comes down to do you
Speaker 3: believe that the three wide receivers will be off the
Speaker 3: board first, because I think you know, there could be
Speaker 3: a consideration for a potentially you know, of course they
Speaker 3: did fortify the wide receiver room in the offseason and
Speaker 3: bringing in cousins. They certainly wanted to do that. I
Speaker 3: do think their prerogative what would be on the defensive
Speaker 3: side of the ball. But I think that cornerback is
Speaker 3: more in play than people are giving it credit for. Again,
Speaker 3: it's just been like, oh, the Falcons are going to
Speaker 3: take in the top edge guy right there.
Speaker 2: I don't think that that is a fixed outcome that
Speaker 2: people believe it is.
Speaker 1: All right, so maybe it's just safer if you're trying to,
Speaker 1: you know, just kind of get a better idea of
Speaker 1: bet wise, would it be just better to bet on
Speaker 1: the defensive player at a lower odds maybe and just
Speaker 1: kind of lock that in because it's going to be
Speaker 1: one of those guys or like let's say, let's say
Speaker 1: one of those receivers drops down to them somehow do
Speaker 1: you think that they would still jump into that pool
Speaker 1: with the knees that they have on defense?
Speaker 3: Well, the other possibility there is a trade down at
Speaker 3: that point, right Like if you know, for instance, like
Speaker 3: a guy, if a guy like a Dunes, you just think,
Speaker 3: suss out this this outcome with me a dunes falls
Speaker 3: down there, for instance, you are going to be getting
Speaker 3: a lot.
Speaker 2: Of phone calls while you are on the clock.
Speaker 3: And let's say, indeed that the Falcons have isolated the
Speaker 3: buckets of edge Rusher and cornerback as the top priorities
Speaker 3: of immediate help on their roster. If you could just
Speaker 3: drop down between three to seven spots and and hit that,
Speaker 3: you might consider that. And by the way, maybe if
Speaker 3: you could only drop down a couple spots even more still,
Speaker 3: you might still have the number one, uh your choice
Speaker 3: of those two buckets, I could tell you for sure.
Speaker 3: I know one team that super duper fetishizes Roman Dunes
Speaker 3: behind closed doors that I've heard is the.
Speaker 2: New York Jets.
Speaker 3: And so if they were in a position to swoop in,
Speaker 3: if real m duneesay somehow started to fall through the
Speaker 3: cracks and they had that opportunity to jump up, they
Speaker 3: would be working the phone lines pretty hard. So those
Speaker 3: are some things to consider with that. And like I said,
Speaker 3: with Atlanta, wherever that ends up being cornerback, I think
Speaker 3: heavier outcome than is being given credit for.
Speaker 2: Right now, all.
Speaker 1: Right, next bet we're going to talk about has to
Speaker 1: do the quarterbacks. You mentioned it's very day one heavy
Speaker 1: quarterback class to start the draft. We expect it to
Speaker 1: go some combination of Caleb Williams and then Jaydeen Daniels
Speaker 1: and Drake May. We don't know the order of two
Speaker 1: and three yet. We'll find out the night of the draft.
Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy, you expect to be in there, but there's
Speaker 1: a number of the four and a half for the
Speaker 1: number of quarterbacks to be taken in the first round.
Speaker 1: We've done some mocks where bo Nix's knuck in there.
Speaker 1: I want to get your take on there the number
Speaker 1: four and a half. You going over or under this?
Speaker 3: We haven't done the mocks or bon Nix is snuck
Speaker 3: in there where I have made the selection.
Speaker 2: I will have. I will have to believe it to
Speaker 2: see it.
Speaker 3: I am fading the four and a half number, especially
Speaker 3: at those juice sides that the market is giving me
Speaker 3: right now live you can get plus one fifty four
Speaker 3: on going under the four and a half number. I'm
Speaker 3: taking that all day. Maybe Penix goes at the end
Speaker 3: of the first round, or maybe Sean Payton panic drafts
Speaker 3: Bonicks and Frankly, as a Vikings fan who lived through
Speaker 3: bounty Gate. The one shot that I had the Vikings
Speaker 3: fans had in their lifetime to win the Super Bowl
Speaker 3: would be hilarious and would give me personal joy. But again,
Speaker 3: I would have to believe it to see it. Those
Speaker 3: guys are, in particular Bonis, are not first round caliber
Speaker 3: players every process, and I know that they have obviously
Speaker 3: been discussed at nauseum, and you do see them in
Speaker 3: mock drafts particulicularly elsewhere in the industry, and there's other
Speaker 3: people that say that they're first rounders and YadA YadA.
Speaker 3: But we see this every single process, particularly around this
Speaker 3: time where it gets very close to the draft, and
Speaker 3: you'll see respected reporters say, oh, they're they're good. You
Speaker 3: know they're not gonna fall beneath here. You know this
Speaker 3: is where this team is super interested. And if they
Speaker 3: get to this point, you know this team could be
Speaker 3: interested in trading to the very end of the first
Speaker 3: round and YadA, YadA. The guy last year who is
Speaker 3: pennex or Nicks in this scenario was Hendon Hooker. There
Speaker 3: is that that guy you know every single year. Could
Speaker 3: there be a team that makes what, in my opinion,
Speaker 3: would be an egregious mistake sure. Uh, sometimes that happens.
Speaker 3: My my Vikings over a decade ago did it with
Speaker 3: a guy named Christian Ponder. But that's it would be
Speaker 3: a fireable offense if it, if it happens, and and
Speaker 3: I would have to believe it to see it. I
Speaker 3: don't think a front office ends up doing that.
Speaker 2: Uh. And so I'm going to fade that number.
Speaker 3: Particularly if you're gonna give me a little bit better
Speaker 3: than one and a half to one.
Speaker 1: I gotta say I agree with you one hundred percent
Speaker 1: of your evaluation there. Let's talk about the wide receivers.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of them in here. The number is
Speaker 1: six and a half for the first round. Would you
Speaker 1: go over or under that number?
Speaker 3: I'm going under that six and a half. I feel
Speaker 3: pretty good about this one. The number is juiced up
Speaker 3: there at six and a half because the betting market
Speaker 3: has been told all process by people like myself that
Speaker 3: this wide receiver class is awesome, and they have not
Speaker 3: been misled. That is the truth. This wide receiver class
Speaker 3: is absolutely nasty. But the thing is that that is
Speaker 3: it's at the very top. Of course, with the three
Speaker 3: megamegastides right there at the top, and then that is
Speaker 3: also speaking to the depth of it, which is going
Speaker 3: to have the effect of negating the possibility that there
Speaker 3: will be seven or more receivers taken in the first round,
Speaker 3: which is going to push this thing under because you
Speaker 3: have that three dimensional chess of the decision making of
Speaker 3: the people on the clock of why are you going
Speaker 3: to take a you know, uh, Troy Franklin or a
Speaker 3: key On Coleman or a Xavier or Lagette or a
Speaker 3: guy that we're going to talk about in a second
Speaker 3: that I'm I'm not the biggest fan of, but we'll
Speaker 3: get into that in a second. At the end of
Speaker 3: the first round, Uh, you know a couple other guys
Speaker 3: that you could toss out there, when instead in round
Speaker 3: two or even in round three, you can take a
Speaker 3: dude at that position that can you can project, can
Speaker 3: immediately come in and start from day one, whereas it
Speaker 3: and in the slot you're you're picking at at the
Speaker 3: end of the first round in the in the latter
Speaker 3: half of day one, you can instead you can go
Speaker 3: to another position where it drops off quicker and you
Speaker 3: can take a dude that that will start immediately in.
Speaker 3: Because you know, again the three dimensional chesting that's the
Speaker 3: scenario where you can get two immediate starters as opposed
Speaker 3: to one that you look around at these other position groups,
Speaker 3: they drop off a shelf way quicker. Wide receiver is
Speaker 3: the one where you can get immediate starters way deeper
Speaker 3: in this draft, so you're not going to reach up
Speaker 3: for them. It would be another sort of egregious decision.
Speaker 3: Even if you can argue that you know, I have
Speaker 3: seven first round grades on receivers, I wouldn't argue until
Speaker 3: I was blue in the face against that idea. In theory,
Speaker 3: it's just when you start stacking the value of the
Speaker 3: different positions, it's like, okay, some of these other position
Speaker 3: groups they fall off a shelf so quickly. And if
Speaker 3: you're a GM and you're looking over your different position
Speaker 3: groups and we have you know, three other four other
Speaker 3: position groups where we have acute needs, you need to
Speaker 3: address those because if you don't, you will be in
Speaker 3: a very hairy position later on in the draft.
Speaker 1: It seems like I think the number of people want
Speaker 1: to bet the over on this store. It feels like
Speaker 1: they're looking at the board and they're seeing the top
Speaker 1: three guys. Then they're seeing a lot of teams with
Speaker 1: need like the Buffalo Bills like the Kansiley Chiefs. You
Speaker 1: add in two more teams, all of a sudden you're
Speaker 1: over this number. So I think that's why people are
Speaker 1: looking so much on the over. But to your point,
Speaker 1: it's the depth that might allow you to be a
Speaker 1: little bit more patient. Now, one guy that plays like
Speaker 1: a wide receiver but he's actually a tight end is
Speaker 1: brock Bowers. A lot of discussion where he might go,
Speaker 1: how early he might go. The number for him is
Speaker 1: at twelve and a half in terms of draft spot.
Speaker 1: You want to go over or under that.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna I'm gonna go under the twelve and a half.
Speaker 3: I just mentioned that Jets. If the Jets are not
Speaker 3: able to engineer that scenario to get up for Roma Dunze,
Speaker 3: I do absolutely buy the smoke of brock Bowers. I
Speaker 3: do not believe that that is like, I think that
Speaker 3: that is legitimate. And it makes all the sense in
Speaker 3: the world to me that you know, people, you know,
Speaker 3: you hear this stuff of like, oh it's a it's
Speaker 3: a tight end, and and you know, YadA YadA, and
Speaker 3: the positional value. You can't really think of brock Bauers
Speaker 3: as a tight end. And you also cannot conflate him
Speaker 3: with Kyle Pitts. You know, Kyle Pitts like the downtown,
Speaker 3: you know, seems stretcher, dude. You know whatever brock Bauers is.
Speaker 3: You move them all around the formation and you just
Speaker 3: you manufacture the ball to him shorter on, and you
Speaker 3: can do all kinds of different things with him. Brock Bawers.
Speaker 3: So he was only on the Jordia campus for three years.
Speaker 3: All three years he led the team in receiving. The
Speaker 3: team only lost two games those three seasons. They won
Speaker 3: the national title twice. Both rosters were replete with NFL
Speaker 3: receivers when he stepped onto campus. That team had George Pickens,
Speaker 3: they had Ady Mitchell, they had Lad McConkey. That they
Speaker 3: were stacked. Brock Bawers was the number one receiver on
Speaker 3: that team that won a national title. As a true freshman,
Speaker 3: he brock Bowers was a First team All American three times.
Speaker 3: He was a John McKie Award winner two times. And
Speaker 3: it's not only that, folks. Kirby Smart, who is as
Speaker 3: straight laced as they come, not known for hyperbole, said
Speaker 3: that if Jorda had shifted brock Bowers to running back.
Speaker 1: He would have been that he would have been their
Speaker 1: best one, right, he would.
Speaker 3: Have been their their best running back. And you you
Speaker 3: think like, oh, well, that's that's clearly absurd. You know,
Speaker 3: brock Bauers is six three two forty five. There's no
Speaker 3: way that that could have been the case. But when
Speaker 3: he carried the ball, you know, because there was times
Speaker 3: where they sort of used him as like the Deebo
Speaker 3: Samuel of tight ends, and in some high leverage spots,
Speaker 3: you know, they would do like end rounds r at
Speaker 3: the goal line.
Speaker 1: They would do some fun stuff mh.
Speaker 3: Average like over ten yards of carry. So you can
Speaker 3: do crazy unconventional things with him. You can't think of
Speaker 3: him as a tight end. He's just the guy that he's.
Speaker 3: He's a yardage getter and and and it's like, well,
Speaker 3: sure is he undersize for a tight end, but he's
Speaker 3: not a tight end. He is elephantine for his athletic
Speaker 3: profile for a yardage getter, and.
Speaker 2: That's what he is.
Speaker 3: You just move around the formation, and when you do it,
Speaker 3: the defense has to tip their intentions to you.
Speaker 2: That's what he is.
Speaker 3: You line them up outside, line him up in the slot,
Speaker 3: line him up, you know in line line him up.
Speaker 3: You can line him up in the backfield as a
Speaker 3: single back if you want. A couple of snaps a game,
Speaker 3: just to confuse the heck out of the defense, Like
Speaker 3: he's the dude for the offensive coordinator where he just
Speaker 3: screws around with the defensive coordinator on the other side.
Speaker 3: It's like a game where he is just frustrating the
Speaker 3: other dude the entire time, and then Bowers is just
Speaker 3: doing damage the entire time, as he did from day
Speaker 3: one for the most dominant collegiate program we had over
Speaker 3: the last three years.
Speaker 1: All Right, you teas this earlier, so I'm gonna let
Speaker 1: you kind of take it from here. There was a
Speaker 1: wide receiver that you are lower on than consensus. Let's
Speaker 1: talk about him and how we can make money off
Speaker 1: of it in the NFL draft and wager.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so we we'll have to apologize that the viewing
Speaker 3: audience first, that the show wasn't four days ago or
Speaker 3: you know, immediately when the slot props came out, because
Speaker 3: let's just say that the sports books made a mistake
Speaker 3: this guy that the betting market and my sharks out
Speaker 3: there immediately made them pay for with the biggest of hammers.
Speaker 3: Just a wave of money came in Ady Mitchell his slot.
Speaker 3: You don't see movement like this in in slot props.
Speaker 3: This quickly opened at sixteen and a half. Within a
Speaker 3: couple of days, he had been met up to twenty
Speaker 3: seven and a half, which is where he sits now
Speaker 3: talking about the Texas receiver at twenty seven and a
Speaker 3: half now, so has moved over ten slots up from
Speaker 3: the open again and only a matter of a couple
Speaker 3: of days. Even at twenty seven and a half. That
Speaker 3: is where we currently sit as we talk to you
Speaker 3: guys now at minus one twenty odds. That is the
Speaker 3: advice I'm going to give you guys again present odds.
Speaker 3: I'm still going over that number Ady Mitchell on my
Speaker 3: draft board is wide receiver thirteen. I see him as
Speaker 3: around three perspect.
Speaker 1: How three even wow?
Speaker 2: He and of.
Speaker 3: Course Ady Mitchell is going to go higher than that
Speaker 3: in the NFL, higher than round three in the in
Speaker 3: the NFL draft.
Speaker 2: Not a fan of his game.
Speaker 3: Obviously, he is a loafer on concepts that go the
Speaker 3: other way. He does not change directions very well. His
Speaker 3: one special sauce of that downtown speed obviously, that is
Speaker 3: why people were a fan of him during the pre
Speaker 3: draft process six two two oh five with the four
Speaker 3: to three wheels, and then he had the great rasby
Speaker 3: because of that different stuff.
Speaker 2: But it's build up speed.
Speaker 3: His tenure split was equivalent to several guys in this
Speaker 3: class that ran in the low to mid four fives.
Speaker 3: So he needs a runway in front of him to
Speaker 3: get to. Once he has that that runway in front
Speaker 3: of him, that's when down the field he starts running
Speaker 3: faster than anybody, but he needs that runway. His collegiate
Speaker 3: receiving production, it was entirely built off of games where
Speaker 3: he would have two to three explosive plays the rest
Speaker 3: of that. That's why you saw it last year on
Speaker 3: this Texas team that had a really good passing offense,
Speaker 3: it was like eight nine games he had less than
Speaker 3: thirty receiving yards because he's the Dave Kingman of receiving
Speaker 3: prospects where you either get a home run or you
Speaker 3: get a strikeout.
Speaker 2: That baseball illusion was you.
Speaker 1: Hey, not the baseball reference. I appreciate you all, how
Speaker 1: many of the audience did, But Dave Kingman, go look
Speaker 1: it up, big slugger. All or nothing would be the
Speaker 1: way to describe.
Speaker 3: It, all or nothing, that is what you get from him.
Speaker 3: And then the other utility that for an NFL team
Speaker 3: is that the opposing defense you're going to have to
Speaker 3: keep too high safeties because you do have to respect
Speaker 3: his ability to pop the top. But I see him
Speaker 3: as more of like a DJ Shark type where the
Speaker 3: prototypical wide receiver two. I absolutely do not see the
Speaker 3: upside that some other analysts out there have depicted. You
Speaker 3: certainly did not see it the past couple of years
Speaker 3: in college during his collegiate career when he had the opportunity.
Speaker 3: I brought them up before he was there on campus
Speaker 3: with Brock Bauers. That was a team that was certainly
Speaker 3: trying to win and was winning. They they were in
Speaker 3: they won the national championship. We're winning the national championship twice.
Speaker 3: They they were going to other dudes, and then Adie
Speaker 3: Mitchell obviously went to Texas and they were going to
Speaker 3: other dudes. He did hit some dingers, and he only
Speaker 3: hit some diners in the NFL, but you will be
Speaker 3: going elsewhere for your efficiency. I still think that Adie
Speaker 3: Mitchell is going to fall into the top of the
Speaker 3: second round. That that's where I think he ends up going.
Speaker 3: That Typically, that's where you see the pop the top
Speaker 3: dudes go.
Speaker 2: That's where I.
Speaker 3: Think Adie Mitchell is, and that's that's where I think
Speaker 3: he ends up going in the NFL draft.
Speaker 1: All right, we got a few picks left here for
Speaker 1: the NFL draft. Best bets here, let's talk about Turner
Speaker 1: over and a half nine excuse me, over nine and
Speaker 1: a half. That is where you are next? Why is that?
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know we brought up Dallas Turner before, and
Speaker 3: my supposition that Atlanta is not settled that away. And obviously,
Speaker 3: you know, people know from the mock drafts and everything
Speaker 3: like that during the entire process all the offensive guys
Speaker 3: that are going to go at the top.
Speaker 2: Of the board.
Speaker 3: So this is right around here is where the first
Speaker 3: defender is going to go. That is why the sports
Speaker 3: books have set Dallas Turner's over under sloat prop at
Speaker 3: nine and a half. I'm fading Dallas Turner, as I
Speaker 3: mentioned before, So I'm going over that that nine and
Speaker 3: a half. I'm perfectly comfortable laying the minus one twenty
Speaker 3: juice on that.
Speaker 1: All right, we talked about Boon Nicks earlier, so you
Speaker 1: and I agree he should not go in the first round.
Speaker 1: Doesn't mean he won't go in the first round, but
Speaker 1: we're talking about where he might land. The number right
Speaker 1: now that it's set for him is thirty five and
Speaker 1: a half. That's the pick number. Do you want to
Speaker 1: go over or under that one for bon Nicks?
Speaker 3: Yeah, certainly going over the Bonnicks one. You know mentioned
Speaker 3: was going under the four and a half quarterbacks in
Speaker 3: the first round. With with bon Nicks, I wish we
Speaker 3: could do the what's it called when you ch and
Speaker 3: the modified line that you can do at college foot
Speaker 3: by you change it so then you get the juice shots.
Speaker 3: I wish I could do that with the draft slot
Speaker 3: props and then push it back and then get an
Speaker 3: enormous juice on it the other way.
Speaker 1: Alternate line, so to speak, line for thank you. Well yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't know why there isn't more of
Speaker 1: that that might you know what, as we get closer
Speaker 1: to draft day, you might see some specials pop up
Speaker 1: or some abilities to do that on certain spots. So
Speaker 1: keep an eye.
Speaker 2: I hope we get more more prospects as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a ton of like, there's a ton up
Speaker 1: here here for like the last you know, forty eight
Speaker 1: hours or so, things pop up and then a lot
Speaker 1: of specials pop up to so you know, stay keen
Speaker 1: to that, you know, keep your eyes and ears open
Speaker 1: for all of that. Use the Betting Pros app. But also,
Speaker 1: you know, make sure your follows on social media too,
Speaker 1: because we'll be you know, trying to get all that
Speaker 1: information out to people as much as we can. But again,
Speaker 1: bo Nicks, you know, numbers at thirty five and a half.
Speaker 1: That's reasonable, but you got to look at the teams
Speaker 1: that are looking for quarterback around that range too.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, and there's been in the connection between
Speaker 3: you know, for instance, Bonix and Sean Payton and desperation
Speaker 3: as a stinky colone. And certainly the Broncos are desperate
Speaker 3: with their their quarterback situation. I certainly get that, but
Speaker 3: the Broncos also are capped out and they have very
Speaker 3: little draft equity. And as I mentioned before, it would
Speaker 3: be egregious just looking at Bonickx's the film for sure,
Speaker 3: but even looking just at the traditional profile of a
Speaker 3: prospect like this, the elevated age, the struggles he had
Speaker 3: earlier in his career, and the way in which he
Speaker 3: accrued those counting stats. If you look into that, if
Speaker 3: you look at where the yardage was coming from, and
Speaker 3: you look at where the accuracy got juiced up cough cough,
Speaker 3: look at the percentage of passes that came behind the
Speaker 3: line of scrimmage and within ten yards of the line
Speaker 3: of scrimmage, you'll see And look at the percentage of
Speaker 3: the yards that came from yak yardage from the guys
Speaker 3: that he was throwing to you, you'll start to see,
Speaker 3: and then again from a prospect quarterback prospect at the
Speaker 3: elevated age, and then when you start you look at
Speaker 3: the film, you start to see some other things. It
Speaker 3: appears that the Oregon offensive system was working around some
Speaker 3: of the more unsavory aspects of Bonix's game that we
Speaker 3: saw at Auburn that I think will crop up in
Speaker 3: the NFL if system is not tailored around that in
Speaker 3: the same way, which will also have the effect of
Speaker 3: taking away any explosive element whatsoever from the offense that
Speaker 3: he would be playing in at the next level, which
Speaker 3: would also have the effect of making of neutering that offense.
Speaker 3: You would absolutely not have a contender that's not the
Speaker 3: guy that goes in the first round. It's also not
Speaker 3: a guy that goes in the top half of the
Speaker 3: second definitely would definitely be fading that and visa vive
Speaker 3: the Broncos that scenario, assuming it's not just this enormous panic.
Speaker 3: Whatever you trade down, try to the smart thing you
Speaker 3: would trade down, Try to accruise some draft equity which
Speaker 3: you currently do not have, to try to plug some
Speaker 3: more holes on that that roster that's decimated, that needs it,
Speaker 3: that you don't have cap room to otherwise fill those holes,
Speaker 3: and then add, you know, and get some cheap roster
Speaker 3: cogs because you know again like that, you know, fill
Speaker 3: out some of that draftic we you don't have and
Speaker 3: and you know you don't have the cap space augment that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, makes a lot of sense to me. Michael Pennix,
Speaker 1: so far in every mock draft we've done thor he
Speaker 1: has ended up with the Raiders at forty four. Now
Speaker 1: the over under him is at thirty two and a half.
Speaker 1: That seems like a lock for the over.
Speaker 2: Now I'm going over on that as well.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, what what what Obviously the thirty two
Speaker 3: and a half is just nodding to what they're saying
Speaker 3: is Michael Penix.
Speaker 1: That's what they're saying exactly, and he is.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and and Penix, you know, pendix for me is
Speaker 3: is slightly different than than Bonix. On my board, Michael
Speaker 3: or Bonix is a third rounder. I do think Knicks
Speaker 3: ends up maybe in the second round somewhere. Penix, I think,
Speaker 3: by the talent could go early second round. The first round.
Speaker 2: Thing would would.
Speaker 3: Still surprise me because there's in the profile. There's multiple
Speaker 3: different things that I think are going to scare teams
Speaker 3: when they are on the clock or in the past
Speaker 3: couple of months when they have been discussing this. The
Speaker 3: obvious one that people talk about is the four straight
Speaker 3: season ending injuries. When Michael Penix was at Indiana. He
Speaker 3: did Michael Penix then did not run at Washington like
Speaker 3: out of the pocket I'm talking about. But then when
Speaker 3: he went to the pre draft process, he tested as
Speaker 3: the great athlete and then which then people were like, oh,
Speaker 3: you know, he's a good athlete, and he of course
Speaker 3: has the really good arm. So then you saw his
Speaker 3: stock starting to go up a little bit.
Speaker 2: Again.
Speaker 3: The thing that people need to keep in mind though,
Speaker 3: is there is a reason that he never left the
Speaker 3: pocket at Washington. It's not because he had a dippy
Speaker 3: coaching staff. In fact, he had one of the best
Speaker 3: play callers that we have had in college football the
Speaker 3: last thirty years, and it was the guy who shepherded
Speaker 3: him initially at Indiana, Klein de Boor. When Michael Penix
Speaker 3: came out of high school as the will threat guy.
Speaker 3: When Indiana he was running around. You know that there
Speaker 3: was that play against penn State when they upset them
Speaker 3: during the COVID season. He reached over the goal line
Speaker 3: they you know, and scored and you know, all that
Speaker 3: sort of stuff. The reason why is because when Michael
Speaker 3: Pennix was doing all that running around stuff early on
Speaker 3: at Indiana, that's when he was getting injured. And my
Speaker 3: theory is that Kaylin de Boer told Michael Penix when
Speaker 3: he went to followed him to Washington, Michael, we need
Speaker 3: you in the pocket. You can't be leaving anymore because
Speaker 3: if you get injured, it's going to be very bad
Speaker 3: for our team.
Speaker 2: We need you staying healthy.
Speaker 3: And then the one other thing with Michael Pennix's game,
Speaker 3: you can see this in the statistics.
Speaker 2: You can also see it on the film that the.
Speaker 3: More his feet, the more he's pushed off his spot,
Speaker 3: the more his feet are moving, the more his accuracy
Speaker 3: begins to appreciate. It's something like ten percent drops off
Speaker 3: his accuracy percentage if his feet are even shuffling whatsoever,
Speaker 3: and it's more like fifteen to twenty when he is
Speaker 3: outright scrambling. So it's you have those two different things.
Speaker 3: So the whole point being that athleticism, I'm not sure
Speaker 3: that that is a thing that is usable in the.
Speaker 2: NFL if you want to keep him healthy.
Speaker 1: No, but footwork's certainly something teachable you can work on.
Speaker 1: That's for sure. You can't make a guy more athletic,
Speaker 1: but he could certainly teach him better footwork, especially in
Speaker 1: circumstances of the NFL where he's going to need that
Speaker 1: because the pass rush is going to be very ferocious.
Speaker 3: There is but Joe, I will say, his mechanics, so
Speaker 3: there is a lot of upper body motion in his
Speaker 3: throwing motion, and he Pennis's arm talent. Oh it's awesome,
Speaker 3: like the ball like it just shoots out of his
Speaker 3: hand like that part of it is unimpeachable about his saying.
Speaker 3: But he is an extremely unorthodox thrower where it is
Speaker 3: mostly upper body, and what he does with the lower body,
Speaker 3: it's like I think of it like a sniper, where
Speaker 3: it's like he keeps it like set, but he doesn't
Speaker 3: use the lower body as much, you know, as far
Speaker 3: as rocking back and stepping in.
Speaker 2: He just likes to keep the feet totally set.
Speaker 3: And like I said, when it's moving, it off it
Speaker 3: has the effect of depreciating the accuracy with all that
Speaker 3: unrepeatable upper body wonky motion that he has. You see
Speaker 3: it like the placement can be off because that upper
Speaker 3: body motion is non repeatable and all the funk in it,
Speaker 3: And so that's what you see with that. I'm not
Speaker 3: sure how much of that is workable. If it was
Speaker 3: over his six years on campus, I think Calen Debor
Speaker 3: would have solved that puzzle by now.
Speaker 1: Perhaps we shall see. Hopefully wherever he lands they maybe
Speaker 1: can get the best out of him. Last as Lad Maconkie,
Speaker 1: a guy's been just going up draft boards constantly lately,
Speaker 1: so he's been flying up all over the place. That
Speaker 1: number for him is up to thirty four and a half.
Speaker 1: You want to go over or under this as again,
Speaker 1: the buzz continues to be strong with this one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I mentioned that I'm raiding the six
Speaker 3: and a half receiver number. Lad mcconkeye, though, is the
Speaker 3: one receiver, especially at this thirty four and a half.
Speaker 3: You get a little get a couple more bullets on
Speaker 3: the you get the first couple of slots of the
Speaker 3: second round on it. I'm gonna go under this one.
Speaker 3: I love Lad mcconkee. Lad mcconkee. I might be the
Speaker 3: highest dude in the industry on Lad McConkey. Lad mcconkeye
Speaker 3: is my wide receiver for Wow, huge fan of Ladd
Speaker 3: mcconkee's game, and I absolutely could see a team like
Speaker 3: I don't know if how much connection is out there
Speaker 3: on this. This is just a conviction of mine. I
Speaker 3: think you'd be a perfect fit for the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 3: You know, you don't typically think of Ladi mcconkee as
Speaker 3: a dude that would be an analogous one to one
Speaker 3: replacement fit for a step On Diggs.
Speaker 2: I think he would be perfect for that. Ladd mcconk.
Speaker 3: People do not give Lad mcconkee credit for this guy
Speaker 3: could absolutely be a long term outside starting receiver in
Speaker 3: the NFL. I believe he certainly was on those dominant
Speaker 3: Georgia teams. I was just talking about played almost eighty
Speaker 3: percent of his snaps in college on the two national
Speaker 3: title teams on the outside. That was a twelve personnel offense.
Speaker 3: And he gets separation at will almost better than anyone
Speaker 3: in this class. He is so natural at it. He
Speaker 3: was so good at it. In fact, when deebro and
Speaker 3: I and our buddy Mayor were down in Mobile at
Speaker 3: the Senior Ball the first day, Lad McConkie was destroying
Speaker 3: defensive backs so bad and one on one drills it
Speaker 3: evoked Tank Dell for the year before in the one
Speaker 3: on one drills where they were holding Tank Dell out
Speaker 3: of the route breaks. And then the next day people were,
Speaker 3: you know, were holding Tank Dell after he destroyed them.
Speaker 3: On the Tuesday with Lad McConkie, they just started playing
Speaker 3: off them. No one wanted to get close to him.
Speaker 3: They were just seating the early. We'll give you the
Speaker 3: freebe completion and then we'll just sort of mind tackle
Speaker 3: you after that because they were getting embarrassed by him.
Speaker 3: That's how easy LADDI McConkie separates from. I mean, if
Speaker 3: you hit him on the hands, he is going to
Speaker 3: get a little bit of yak garage free after that
Speaker 3: as well. He would be a guy for that Buffalo
Speaker 3: receiving core after the Digs trade and whatever that badly
Speaker 3: needs fortification right now, he would so greatly help that out.
Speaker 3: So just one example of a team that potentially could
Speaker 3: go there. But even at the top of the second caroline,
Speaker 3: obviously you know it had traded for Deontay Johnson, someone
Speaker 3: who very much in this vein.
Speaker 2: They are looking for guys that get.
Speaker 1: Patriots are looking for a guy too.
Speaker 2: Certainly, there's a.
Speaker 1: Few teams right at the very top of that second round.
Speaker 1: So I'm with you on this one.
Speaker 3: You're looking at teams that are sitting dead red on
Speaker 3: a guy exactly like Lad McConkie. And if people out
Speaker 3: there don't think that they're talking about exactly like a
Speaker 3: guy like this, a guy that gets open more than
Speaker 3: seven to eleven, your kidding yourself.
Speaker 1: Mary, You have it, everybody. Hopefully all of these bets hit.
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