WEBVTT - 2024 NFL Draft Predictions & Bets Bets: Draft Pick Props, Player Over/Unders & Positional Bets (Ep. 460) 0:00:00.920 --> 0:00:03.040 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.120 --> 0:00:05.720 your bets as me Joey P joe P Zapia and 0:00:05.760 --> 0:00:08.920 the NFL Draft is just days away. Now. We've been 0:00:08.960 --> 0:00:11.000 so excited. We've done so many mock draft shows over 0:00:11.080 --> 0:00:14.040 on Fantasy Pros and of course don't forget on Fantasy 0:00:14.040 --> 0:00:16.279 Pros Night one, Night two of the NFL Draft, we 0:00:16.320 --> 0:00:19.280 will be live join US seven Eastern for the NFL 0:00:19.360 --> 0:00:22.680 Draft coverage with myself and my guest today, the man, 0:00:22.760 --> 0:00:26.640 the myth, the legend, the Minnesota mad Man himself, Thor Nystrom, 0:00:26.720 --> 0:00:31.000 the great draft connoisseur that you are, and he's gonna 0:00:31.000 --> 0:00:34.160 help us today with some wagers for the NFL Draft. 0:00:34.159 --> 0:00:36.240 To make sure when you're making your wagers you're using 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:38.839 the Betting Pros app downloaded. If you haven't sink your 0:00:38.840 --> 0:00:41.720 sports book, and I'm telling you right now, it's gonna 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:45.160 help you become a better sports better and Thor there's 0:00:45.159 --> 0:00:48.320 nobody better when it comes to betting in college sports, 0:00:48.360 --> 0:00:51.000 whether it be we're talking about the college football combine, 0:00:51.000 --> 0:00:53.080 we're talking about college in season stuff. But this is 0:00:53.120 --> 0:00:56.680 the NFL Draft. This is all you live for. This 0:00:56.720 --> 0:00:59.040 is all you eat, sleep, and drink for the last oh, 0:00:59.120 --> 0:01:01.880 I don't know, three months. It feels like so thor 0:01:02.080 --> 0:01:04.080 we're ready to break down, And I got to tell 0:01:04.080 --> 0:01:05.959 you right now, we're gonna start here with the breakdown 0:01:06.000 --> 0:01:10.039 of JJ McCarthy because we've talked a lot about JJ McCarthy, 0:01:10.200 --> 0:01:12.480 and we've talked a lot about your Minnesota vikings potentially 0:01:12.480 --> 0:01:15.039 taking him. So let's start with your favorite bets and 0:01:15.120 --> 0:01:16.720 let's start with the Michigan QB. 0:01:18.240 --> 0:01:20.080 Yeah. So yeah, we'll dive right in. 0:01:20.319 --> 0:01:23.160 It's too bad that they didn't drop slot props back 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:26.319 in February when he was seen as a round two pick. 0:01:26.360 --> 0:01:29.640 But I still think that JJ McCarthy is bettable right now. 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:31.720 With where the betting odds are, You go to the 0:01:31.720 --> 0:01:34.120 betting pros app, look around at the best odds that 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:36.839 you can find in the marketplace, shop around which which 0:01:36.840 --> 0:01:38.560 you can find those on the betting pros app. That 0:01:38.640 --> 0:01:41.000 the best odds that you can find out there right 0:01:41.040 --> 0:01:45.360 now live JJ McCarthy to be the number three overall pick. 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:48.240 You can get that at four to one, so that 0:01:48.520 --> 0:01:50.920 I think there is some meat on the bone there. 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:53.040 You want to go a little bit longer shot, but 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:56.880 a more conventional bet there JJ McCarthy. His slot prop 0:01:56.960 --> 0:01:59.600 at under five and a half. You have to pay 0:01:59.720 --> 0:02:04.000 min but I certainly think that there is value there. 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:07.960 There's been smoke around the Patriots slot at number three 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:10.600 that they could consider him. There's been rumors of the 0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:13.359 commander's slot at number two that they could be interested 0:02:13.440 --> 0:02:17.160 in JJ. And of course the trade possibilities at four 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:20.079 and five as well, those would be in play for 0:02:20.200 --> 0:02:23.880 JJ McCarthy as well. The vikings are out there, they 0:02:23.919 --> 0:02:27.440 are out there publicly with their interest in trading up 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:30.799 to acquire a quarterback. JJ McCarthy is a fit in 0:02:30.840 --> 0:02:35.200 Kevin O'Connell's offense obviously as well, so Jada McCarthy. I'm 0:02:35.240 --> 0:02:37.800 going under that five and a half and I also, 0:02:38.200 --> 0:02:40.080 to take the long shot, would go the four to 0:02:40.120 --> 0:02:41.520 one at the number three slot. 0:02:41.720 --> 0:02:44.040 All right, let's get to the next set of bets 0:02:44.080 --> 0:02:47.920 here for first cornerback taken and first defender taken. You 0:02:47.919 --> 0:02:51.200 have a strong opinion on this. Let's talk about Quinean Mitchell. 0:02:51.960 --> 0:02:55.320 This is another combo one for me. Quinnyon Mitchell, the 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:58.720 first cornerback off the board, that that's the more conventional one. 0:02:58.760 --> 0:03:01.400 At conventional odds Quinia Mitchell. I'm going to take that 0:03:01.480 --> 0:03:05.800 one at minus one twenty five juice, but the longer 0:03:05.800 --> 0:03:09.320 shot one and this is even longer. The longer shot bet, 0:03:09.360 --> 0:03:12.560 but I like this one at fifteen to one odds. 0:03:12.639 --> 0:03:16.360 The first defender off the board quin Yon Mitchell. The 0:03:16.440 --> 0:03:19.280 guy that I am fading for first defender off the 0:03:19.280 --> 0:03:23.880 board is Dallas Turner, who is the favorite at minus 0:03:23.919 --> 0:03:27.520 money against the entire board. We'll see if I'm proven 0:03:27.600 --> 0:03:31.040 wrong on this. I disagree with that Dallas Turner is 0:03:31.200 --> 0:03:33.640 my third edge defender on my board. 0:03:34.480 --> 0:03:36.480 I think that there are some holes. 0:03:36.160 --> 0:03:40.119 In his game that maybe the draft media is maybe 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:43.720 not acknowledging quite as much in deference for his athletic profile. 0:03:44.360 --> 0:03:48.000 And furthermore, the you know, the Falcons are the obviously 0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:49.360 at the very top of the board, it's going to 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:52.320 go offense, offense, offense. Here's what we've been talking about 0:03:52.320 --> 0:03:55.600 this entire time. The Falcons is that first stop where 0:03:55.720 --> 0:03:59.240 we start to talk about defense. And it's like sort 0:03:59.240 --> 0:04:02.240 of in the freeze when people consider that it assuming 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:04.480 that the first three receivers are already off the board 0:04:04.560 --> 0:04:08.320 at that time, where it's been the edge defender invariably Turner, 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:12.040 which the betting odds, they generally just go with what 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:15.120 the mock drafts out there. They're being informed by that 0:04:15.160 --> 0:04:17.760 because that's where the betting action goes, and that's how 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:20.919 you know it typically goes with these sorts of things. 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:23.680 But Dallas Turner has been the popular one because he 0:04:23.720 --> 0:04:25.400 has been the top edge on a lot of these 0:04:26.160 --> 0:04:28.600 boards out there by a lot of my media brethren. 0:04:29.160 --> 0:04:32.760 I'm not so sure that that Atlanta ends up going edge, 0:04:32.880 --> 0:04:35.000 and even if they did, you know, who knows. If 0:04:35.040 --> 0:04:37.440 they end up going Turner, like I said, they might 0:04:37.520 --> 0:04:40.400 go cornerback. And if they do, like I said, I 0:04:40.440 --> 0:04:43.560 believe that they would go quinnyon Mitchell. At fifteen to one, 0:04:44.279 --> 0:04:47.599 I think those are pretty incredible odds. And also, you know, 0:04:47.640 --> 0:04:50.320 beyond that, I think a lot too is pretty decent 0:04:50.400 --> 0:04:53.839 odds there. He has come way way down the market 0:04:53.960 --> 0:04:56.640 was correct, I think in that he started out. I 0:04:56.680 --> 0:04:58.080 don't have the odds right in front of me, but 0:04:58.120 --> 0:04:59.800 he was way way juice. He has come down to 0:04:59.839 --> 0:05:02.599 like three and a half to one currently. That one 0:05:02.680 --> 0:05:05.320 is just a bet on. Did NFL teams get decent 0:05:05.680 --> 0:05:08.800 news on his medicals at the NFL combine, he is 0:05:08.839 --> 0:05:12.080 the best edge defender in this class if the team's 0:05:12.120 --> 0:05:16.760 medical personnels are reasonably confident in the news that they 0:05:17.240 --> 0:05:20.960 got back on that he was absolutely incredible the past 0:05:21.040 --> 0:05:24.880 couple of years, and the athletic profile as well, in 0:05:25.000 --> 0:05:28.840 conjunction with the pass rushing profile which is all over 0:05:28.880 --> 0:05:33.320 his film, is just absolutely stupid. He is a safer 0:05:33.360 --> 0:05:37.440 bet than Dallas Turner and certainly is qualitatively several levels 0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:39.760 above him. Right now, that would be the other one 0:05:39.839 --> 0:05:42.039 you could look at, and one other just sort of 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:44.560 long shot in this vein I think right now that 0:05:44.680 --> 0:05:48.040 is gaining a bit of steam light to potentially sniff 0:05:48.040 --> 0:05:50.839 around at if that's your prerogative, would be Byron Murphy. 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:54.040 All right, Byron Murphy in there too. So this being 0:05:54.680 --> 0:05:56.599 you know, you kind of dropped out that the Alatta 0:05:56.640 --> 0:05:58.919 Falcons would be that team there, would you be also 0:05:59.000 --> 0:06:01.640 wagering for the Letta Falcons to take a defensive player 0:06:01.800 --> 0:06:03.760 as well, since obviously that seems to be the way 0:06:03.760 --> 0:06:04.400 that you're focusing. 0:06:05.520 --> 0:06:08.560 Yeah, I mean, so this comes down to do you 0:06:08.640 --> 0:06:10.760 believe that the three wide receivers will be off the 0:06:10.800 --> 0:06:13.200 board first, because I think you know, there could be 0:06:13.240 --> 0:06:16.720 a consideration for a potentially you know, of course they 0:06:16.720 --> 0:06:20.240 did fortify the wide receiver room in the offseason and 0:06:20.320 --> 0:06:23.360 bringing in cousins. They certainly wanted to do that. I 0:06:23.720 --> 0:06:26.600 do think their prerogative what would be on the defensive 0:06:26.600 --> 0:06:29.479 side of the ball. But I think that cornerback is 0:06:30.839 --> 0:06:35.080 more in play than people are giving it credit for. Again, 0:06:35.400 --> 0:06:36.960 it's just been like, oh, the Falcons are going to 0:06:37.040 --> 0:06:38.919 take in the top edge guy right there. 0:06:39.240 --> 0:06:41.480 I don't think that that is a fixed outcome that 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:43.159 people believe it is. 0:06:43.360 --> 0:06:45.920 All right, so maybe it's just safer if you're trying to, 0:06:46.000 --> 0:06:48.200 you know, just kind of get a better idea of 0:06:48.480 --> 0:06:50.919 bet wise, would it be just better to bet on 0:06:50.960 --> 0:06:53.320 the defensive player at a lower odds maybe and just 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:54.760 kind of lock that in because it's going to be 0:06:54.760 --> 0:06:56.920 one of those guys or like let's say, let's say 0:06:56.960 --> 0:07:00.720 one of those receivers drops down to them somehow do 0:07:00.760 --> 0:07:02.559 you think that they would still jump into that pool 0:07:02.640 --> 0:07:04.239 with the knees that they have on defense? 0:07:04.839 --> 0:07:08.280 Well, the other possibility there is a trade down at 0:07:08.279 --> 0:07:10.400 that point, right Like if you know, for instance, like 0:07:10.680 --> 0:07:13.480 a guy, if a guy like a Dunes, you just think, 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:17.680 suss out this this outcome with me a dunes falls 0:07:17.720 --> 0:07:20.640 down there, for instance, you are going to be getting 0:07:20.640 --> 0:07:21.160 a lot. 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:23.640 Of phone calls while you are on the clock. 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:27.720 And let's say, indeed that the Falcons have isolated the 0:07:27.720 --> 0:07:31.840 buckets of edge Rusher and cornerback as the top priorities 0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:35.080 of immediate help on their roster. If you could just 0:07:35.240 --> 0:07:40.600 drop down between three to seven spots and and hit that, 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:44.280 you might consider that. And by the way, maybe if 0:07:44.320 --> 0:07:48.560 you could only drop down a couple spots even more still, 0:07:48.600 --> 0:07:51.840 you might still have the number one, uh your choice 0:07:51.880 --> 0:07:54.280 of those two buckets, I could tell you for sure. 0:07:54.640 --> 0:07:58.640 I know one team that super duper fetishizes Roman Dunes 0:07:59.120 --> 0:08:01.560 behind closed doors that I've heard is the. 0:08:01.440 --> 0:08:02.400 New York Jets. 0:08:02.440 --> 0:08:05.880 And so if they were in a position to swoop in, 0:08:06.720 --> 0:08:09.240 if real m duneesay somehow started to fall through the 0:08:09.320 --> 0:08:13.520 cracks and they had that opportunity to jump up, they 0:08:13.520 --> 0:08:16.760 would be working the phone lines pretty hard. So those 0:08:16.760 --> 0:08:20.880 are some things to consider with that. And like I said, 0:08:20.960 --> 0:08:24.960 with Atlanta, wherever that ends up being cornerback, I think 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:27.360 heavier outcome than is being given credit for. 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:28.080 Right now, all. 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:30.000 Right, next bet we're going to talk about has to 0:08:30.000 --> 0:08:32.880 do the quarterbacks. You mentioned it's very day one heavy 0:08:32.960 --> 0:08:36.440 quarterback class to start the draft. We expect it to 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:39.800 go some combination of Caleb Williams and then Jaydeen Daniels 0:08:39.840 --> 0:08:41.600 and Drake May. We don't know the order of two 0:08:41.679 --> 0:08:43.920 and three yet. We'll find out the night of the draft. 0:08:44.000 --> 0:08:45.880 JJ McCarthy, you expect to be in there, but there's 0:08:45.880 --> 0:08:47.920 a number of the four and a half for the 0:08:48.040 --> 0:08:50.360 number of quarterbacks to be taken in the first round. 0:08:50.360 --> 0:08:52.720 We've done some mocks where bo Nix's knuck in there. 0:08:52.920 --> 0:08:54.320 I want to get your take on there the number 0:08:54.360 --> 0:08:56.079 four and a half. You going over or under this? 0:08:57.160 --> 0:08:59.320 We haven't done the mocks or bon Nix is snuck 0:08:59.320 --> 0:09:01.520 in there where I have made the selection. 0:09:03.960 --> 0:09:06.400 I will have. I will have to believe it to 0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:06.920 see it. 0:09:07.920 --> 0:09:12.000 I am fading the four and a half number, especially 0:09:12.120 --> 0:09:14.840 at those juice sides that the market is giving me 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:18.240 right now live you can get plus one fifty four 0:09:18.559 --> 0:09:22.560 on going under the four and a half number. I'm 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:27.120 taking that all day. Maybe Penix goes at the end 0:09:27.160 --> 0:09:30.960 of the first round, or maybe Sean Payton panic drafts 0:09:31.360 --> 0:09:34.320 Bonicks and Frankly, as a Vikings fan who lived through 0:09:34.400 --> 0:09:37.240 bounty Gate. The one shot that I had the Vikings 0:09:37.240 --> 0:09:39.319 fans had in their lifetime to win the Super Bowl 0:09:39.640 --> 0:09:44.880 would be hilarious and would give me personal joy. But again, 0:09:44.960 --> 0:09:47.040 I would have to believe it to see it. Those 0:09:47.080 --> 0:09:51.440 guys are, in particular Bonis, are not first round caliber 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:55.240 players every process, and I know that they have obviously 0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:58.400 been discussed at nauseum, and you do see them in 0:09:58.920 --> 0:10:02.360 mock drafts particulicularly elsewhere in the industry, and there's other 0:10:02.360 --> 0:10:05.320 people that say that they're first rounders and YadA YadA. 0:10:05.520 --> 0:10:09.240 But we see this every single process, particularly around this 0:10:09.360 --> 0:10:11.920 time where it gets very close to the draft, and 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:14.880 you'll see respected reporters say, oh, they're they're good. You 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:17.719 know they're not gonna fall beneath here. You know this 0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:20.480 is where this team is super interested. And if they 0:10:20.480 --> 0:10:22.480 get to this point, you know this team could be 0:10:22.520 --> 0:10:24.559 interested in trading to the very end of the first 0:10:24.640 --> 0:10:27.719 round and YadA, YadA. The guy last year who is 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:31.360 pennex or Nicks in this scenario was Hendon Hooker. There 0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:34.600 is that that guy you know every single year. Could 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:37.240 there be a team that makes what, in my opinion, 0:10:37.240 --> 0:10:42.240 would be an egregious mistake sure. Uh, sometimes that happens. 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:45.400 My my Vikings over a decade ago did it with 0:10:45.440 --> 0:10:48.720 a guy named Christian Ponder. But that's it would be 0:10:48.720 --> 0:10:51.520 a fireable offense if it, if it happens, and and 0:10:51.600 --> 0:10:53.000 I would have to believe it to see it. I 0:10:53.040 --> 0:10:55.360 don't think a front office ends up doing that. 0:10:55.559 --> 0:10:57.679 Uh. And so I'm going to fade that number. 0:10:57.960 --> 0:10:59.800 Particularly if you're gonna give me a little bit better 0:10:59.840 --> 0:11:00.840 than one and a half to one. 0:11:01.400 --> 0:11:03.440 I gotta say I agree with you one hundred percent 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:05.800 of your evaluation there. Let's talk about the wide receivers. 0:11:05.840 --> 0:11:07.960 There's a lot of them in here. The number is 0:11:08.040 --> 0:11:11.280 six and a half for the first round. Would you 0:11:11.360 --> 0:11:12.840 go over or under that number? 0:11:13.760 --> 0:11:16.280 I'm going under that six and a half. I feel 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:19.480 pretty good about this one. The number is juiced up 0:11:19.520 --> 0:11:22.160 there at six and a half because the betting market 0:11:22.280 --> 0:11:25.720 has been told all process by people like myself that 0:11:25.800 --> 0:11:29.800 this wide receiver class is awesome, and they have not 0:11:29.840 --> 0:11:32.920 been misled. That is the truth. This wide receiver class 0:11:33.040 --> 0:11:36.640 is absolutely nasty. But the thing is that that is 0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:39.600 it's at the very top. Of course, with the three 0:11:39.800 --> 0:11:42.640 megamegastides right there at the top, and then that is 0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:46.079 also speaking to the depth of it, which is going 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:50.440 to have the effect of negating the possibility that there 0:11:50.440 --> 0:11:53.360 will be seven or more receivers taken in the first round, 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:57.160 which is going to push this thing under because you 0:11:57.280 --> 0:12:00.240 have that three dimensional chess of the decision making of 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:03.240 the people on the clock of why are you going 0:12:03.360 --> 0:12:07.640 to take a you know, uh, Troy Franklin or a 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:11.440 key On Coleman or a Xavier or Lagette or a 0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:13.360 guy that we're going to talk about in a second 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:15.520 that I'm I'm not the biggest fan of, but we'll 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:18.160 get into that in a second. At the end of 0:12:18.200 --> 0:12:20.960 the first round, Uh, you know a couple other guys 0:12:20.960 --> 0:12:25.079 that you could toss out there, when instead in round 0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:27.520 two or even in round three, you can take a 0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:30.600 dude at that position that can you can project, can 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:34.560 immediately come in and start from day one, whereas it 0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:36.400 and in the slot you're you're picking at at the 0:12:36.480 --> 0:12:38.480 end of the first round in the in the latter 0:12:38.520 --> 0:12:42.760 half of day one, you can instead you can go 0:12:42.880 --> 0:12:46.640 to another position where it drops off quicker and you 0:12:46.679 --> 0:12:49.720 can take a dude that that will start immediately in. 0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:53.320 Because you know, again the three dimensional chesting that's the 0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:56.560 scenario where you can get two immediate starters as opposed 0:12:56.640 --> 0:12:59.840 to one that you look around at these other position groups, 0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:03.560 they drop off a shelf way quicker. Wide receiver is 0:13:03.600 --> 0:13:06.760 the one where you can get immediate starters way deeper 0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:10.560 in this draft, so you're not going to reach up 0:13:10.559 --> 0:13:13.640 for them. It would be another sort of egregious decision. 0:13:13.720 --> 0:13:16.000 Even if you can argue that you know, I have 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:19.600 seven first round grades on receivers, I wouldn't argue until 0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:22.160 I was blue in the face against that idea. In theory, 0:13:22.640 --> 0:13:25.040 it's just when you start stacking the value of the 0:13:25.520 --> 0:13:28.640 different positions, it's like, okay, some of these other position 0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:31.400 groups they fall off a shelf so quickly. And if 0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:34.920 you're a GM and you're looking over your different position 0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:37.720 groups and we have you know, three other four other 0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:41.440 position groups where we have acute needs, you need to 0:13:41.520 --> 0:13:43.920 address those because if you don't, you will be in 0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:46.320 a very hairy position later on in the draft. 0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:49.480 It seems like I think the number of people want 0:13:49.480 --> 0:13:51.480 to bet the over on this store. It feels like 0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:53.160 they're looking at the board and they're seeing the top 0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:55.280 three guys. Then they're seeing a lot of teams with 0:13:55.400 --> 0:13:59.320 need like the Buffalo Bills like the Kansiley Chiefs. You 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:01.200 add in two more teams, all of a sudden you're 0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:03.560 over this number. So I think that's why people are 0:14:03.600 --> 0:14:05.440 looking so much on the over. But to your point, 0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:07.319 it's the depth that might allow you to be a 0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:10.040 little bit more patient. Now, one guy that plays like 0:14:10.040 --> 0:14:12.080 a wide receiver but he's actually a tight end is 0:14:12.120 --> 0:14:14.439 brock Bowers. A lot of discussion where he might go, 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:17.800 how early he might go. The number for him is 0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:19.800 at twelve and a half in terms of draft spot. 0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:21.320 You want to go over or under that. 0:14:22.200 --> 0:14:24.840 I'm gonna I'm gonna go under the twelve and a half. 0:14:25.280 --> 0:14:29.600 I just mentioned that Jets. If the Jets are not 0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:33.960 able to engineer that scenario to get up for Roma Dunze, 0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:39.120 I do absolutely buy the smoke of brock Bowers. I 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:41.680 do not believe that that is like, I think that 0:14:41.680 --> 0:14:43.920 that is legitimate. And it makes all the sense in 0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:46.560 the world to me that you know, people, you know, 0:14:46.800 --> 0:14:48.560 you hear this stuff of like, oh it's a it's 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:50.880 a tight end, and and you know, YadA YadA, and 0:14:50.960 --> 0:14:54.480 the positional value. You can't really think of brock Bauers 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:57.160 as a tight end. And you also cannot conflate him 0:14:57.240 --> 0:15:01.760 with Kyle Pitts. You know, Kyle Pitts like the downtown, 0:15:02.080 --> 0:15:06.440 you know, seems stretcher, dude. You know whatever brock Bauers is. 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:09.840 You move them all around the formation and you just 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:13.720 you manufacture the ball to him shorter on, and you 0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:17.840 can do all kinds of different things with him. Brock Bawers. 0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:20.280 So he was only on the Jordia campus for three years. 0:15:20.600 --> 0:15:23.680 All three years he led the team in receiving. The 0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:27.080 team only lost two games those three seasons. They won 0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:32.000 the national title twice. Both rosters were replete with NFL 0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:36.840 receivers when he stepped onto campus. That team had George Pickens, 0:15:36.880 --> 0:15:40.680 they had Ady Mitchell, they had Lad McConkey. That they 0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:45.480 were stacked. Brock Bawers was the number one receiver on 0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:49.000 that team that won a national title. As a true freshman, 0:15:49.280 --> 0:15:53.400 he brock Bowers was a First team All American three times. 0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:56.680 He was a John McKie Award winner two times. And 0:15:56.720 --> 0:16:00.240 it's not only that, folks. Kirby Smart, who is as 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:04.000 straight laced as they come, not known for hyperbole, said 0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:06.760 that if Jorda had shifted brock Bowers to running back. 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:09.200 He would have been that he would have been their 0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:10.560 best one, right, he would. 0:16:10.320 --> 0:16:12.720 Have been their their best running back. And you you 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:15.320 think like, oh, well, that's that's clearly absurd. You know, 0:16:15.360 --> 0:16:17.560 brock Bauers is six three two forty five. There's no 0:16:17.560 --> 0:16:19.680 way that that could have been the case. But when 0:16:19.720 --> 0:16:22.480 he carried the ball, you know, because there was times 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:24.280 where they sort of used him as like the Deebo 0:16:24.360 --> 0:16:27.320 Samuel of tight ends, and in some high leverage spots, 0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:28.880 you know, they would do like end rounds r at 0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:29.360 the goal line. 0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:32.640 They would do some fun stuff mh. 0:16:31.760 --> 0:16:34.720 Average like over ten yards of carry. So you can 0:16:34.800 --> 0:16:39.200 do crazy unconventional things with him. You can't think of 0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:42.280 him as a tight end. He's just the guy that he's. 0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:45.240 He's a yardage getter and and and it's like, well, 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:48.680 sure is he undersize for a tight end, but he's 0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:52.880 not a tight end. He is elephantine for his athletic 0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:55.360 profile for a yardage getter, and. 0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:56.040 That's what he is. 0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:59.000 You just move around the formation, and when you do it, 0:16:59.040 --> 0:17:01.280 the defense has to tip their intentions to you. 0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:02.760 That's what he is. 0:17:02.760 --> 0:17:04.600 You line them up outside, line him up in the slot, 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:06.840 line him up, you know in line line him up. 0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:08.760 You can line him up in the backfield as a 0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:11.440 single back if you want. A couple of snaps a game, 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:13.479 just to confuse the heck out of the defense, Like 0:17:13.560 --> 0:17:17.320 he's the dude for the offensive coordinator where he just 0:17:17.359 --> 0:17:20.760 screws around with the defensive coordinator on the other side. 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:24.080 It's like a game where he is just frustrating the 0:17:24.080 --> 0:17:26.560 other dude the entire time, and then Bowers is just 0:17:26.600 --> 0:17:29.560 doing damage the entire time, as he did from day 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:32.480 one for the most dominant collegiate program we had over 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:33.440 the last three years. 0:17:33.680 --> 0:17:35.760 All Right, you teas this earlier, so I'm gonna let 0:17:35.760 --> 0:17:37.520 you kind of take it from here. There was a 0:17:37.520 --> 0:17:40.960 wide receiver that you are lower on than consensus. Let's 0:17:40.960 --> 0:17:43.159 talk about him and how we can make money off 0:17:43.200 --> 0:17:44.600 of it in the NFL draft and wager. 0:17:45.320 --> 0:17:48.399 Yeah, so we we'll have to apologize that the viewing 0:17:48.440 --> 0:17:52.000 audience first, that the show wasn't four days ago or 0:17:52.119 --> 0:17:56.960 you know, immediately when the slot props came out, because 0:17:57.160 --> 0:17:59.719 let's just say that the sports books made a mistake 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:04.200 this guy that the betting market and my sharks out 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:08.879 there immediately made them pay for with the biggest of hammers. 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:13.720 Just a wave of money came in Ady Mitchell his slot. 0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:16.879 You don't see movement like this in in slot props. 0:18:16.920 --> 0:18:21.000 This quickly opened at sixteen and a half. Within a 0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:23.119 couple of days, he had been met up to twenty 0:18:23.160 --> 0:18:26.120 seven and a half, which is where he sits now 0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:29.399 talking about the Texas receiver at twenty seven and a 0:18:29.440 --> 0:18:33.399 half now, so has moved over ten slots up from 0:18:33.480 --> 0:18:36.160 the open again and only a matter of a couple 0:18:36.200 --> 0:18:39.399 of days. Even at twenty seven and a half. That 0:18:39.560 --> 0:18:41.919 is where we currently sit as we talk to you 0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:44.879 guys now at minus one twenty odds. That is the 0:18:44.920 --> 0:18:48.040 advice I'm going to give you guys again present odds. 0:18:48.520 --> 0:18:52.560 I'm still going over that number Ady Mitchell on my 0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:58.560 draft board is wide receiver thirteen. I see him as 0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:01.240 around three perspect. 0:19:00.680 --> 0:19:02.040 How three even wow? 0:19:02.880 --> 0:19:04.680 He and of. 0:19:04.560 --> 0:19:07.520 Course Ady Mitchell is going to go higher than that 0:19:07.680 --> 0:19:10.159 in the NFL, higher than round three in the in 0:19:10.200 --> 0:19:11.000 the NFL draft. 0:19:11.640 --> 0:19:12.760 Not a fan of his game. 0:19:12.640 --> 0:19:16.720 Obviously, he is a loafer on concepts that go the 0:19:16.800 --> 0:19:19.840 other way. He does not change directions very well. His 0:19:20.000 --> 0:19:23.760 one special sauce of that downtown speed obviously, that is 0:19:23.800 --> 0:19:25.800 why people were a fan of him during the pre 0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:28.400 draft process six two two oh five with the four 0:19:28.440 --> 0:19:30.880 to three wheels, and then he had the great rasby 0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:32.119 because of that different stuff. 0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:33.480 But it's build up speed. 0:19:34.119 --> 0:19:37.800 His tenure split was equivalent to several guys in this 0:19:37.880 --> 0:19:41.160 class that ran in the low to mid four fives. 0:19:41.520 --> 0:19:44.000 So he needs a runway in front of him to 0:19:44.119 --> 0:19:46.800 get to. Once he has that that runway in front 0:19:46.800 --> 0:19:50.280 of him, that's when down the field he starts running 0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:53.879 faster than anybody, but he needs that runway. His collegiate 0:19:54.400 --> 0:19:59.640 receiving production, it was entirely built off of games where 0:19:59.680 --> 0:20:03.840 he would have two to three explosive plays the rest 0:20:03.840 --> 0:20:05.840