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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apocarplay and then Froudoto with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Doubt it is effectively right around the forty thousand level

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Speaker 2: after it hit it yesterday, dropped briefly below where at

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Speaker 2: thirty nine something. Now the stock market could be there

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Speaker 2: and voter opinion about the economy could be so significantly.

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Speaker 3: Lower than that, and we hear, you know, we know

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Speaker 3: the deal here of the stock market is not the economy, right,

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Speaker 3: so they say, But there's also a wealth effect that

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Speaker 3: tends to move throughout the economy when stocks are doing well,

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Speaker 3: that can cause companies to hire up, increase wages, and

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Speaker 3: maybe help people downstream. It does sound like trickle down,

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Speaker 3: I guess when you refer to it that way. But

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Speaker 3: there's more at play here, and there's obviously a great

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Speaker 3: story to tell for well, Joe Biden maybe, But then

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Speaker 3: it brings us right back to this story from Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: Economics today. We're just talking about it earlier Stuart Paul

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Speaker 3: and his colleagues crafting a great piece of work here.

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Speaker 3: That's part history lesson. I was just talking to Kaylee.

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Speaker 3: I don't I don't know that I could have told

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Speaker 3: you unemployment hit fourteen point eight percent in April twenty

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Speaker 3: I just we lived through it. But it still looks

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Speaker 3: like a typo when I see it. And Stuart writes here,

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Speaker 3: the cumulative increase in consumer prices during Joe Biden's term

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Speaker 3: likely will end up being higher than any other president

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Speaker 3: in the past forty years. That's what we're talking about here, indeed,

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Speaker 3: and Stuart joins us from World Headquarters in New York.

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Speaker 3: It's great to see you, sir, a great work and

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Speaker 3: glad to have you. A lot of folks are asking

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Speaker 3: why the president cannot connect the dots, and it seems

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Speaker 3: that you just did.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: It's interesting in poll after poll, especially in the swing States,

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Speaker 5: if you ask, if you ask registered voters who they

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Speaker 5: trust to shepherd the economy along if former President Trump

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Speaker 5: whens in a landslide, it's about a ten to fifteen

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Speaker 5: percentage point difference between president's Biden and Trump when you

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Speaker 5: ask voters who they trust to shepherd the economy, and

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Speaker 5: for some who are just looking at some of the

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Speaker 5: headline economic figures, cumulative growth under President Biden is going

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Speaker 5: to be about eleven percent through this term, right, and

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Speaker 5: that smashes what Donald Trump had at just seven point

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Speaker 5: four percent. To your point, it really is the cumulative

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Speaker 5: inflation throughout President Biden's term, which is downstream of the

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Speaker 5: reopening of the economy. A lot of stimulus that had

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Speaker 5: been in the pipeline ends supply chain snaffoos, which are

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Speaker 5: pretty far outside of his control. But if we end

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Speaker 5: his term, if we end this term with the cell

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Speaker 5: side forecast coming to fruition, it'll be cumulative inflation of

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Speaker 5: about twenty one percent during President Biden's term. That compares

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Speaker 5: to Donald Trump's just eight percent into historic average between

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Speaker 5: Presidents Truman and Obama of about fifteen point one percent

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Speaker 5: per four year period. So that's what's really resting on voters.

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Speaker 5: That's what's on their minds right now. And in terms

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Speaker 5: of what it means for the change in the typical

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Speaker 5: voters lifestyle, we tend to focus on real disposable income growth,

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Speaker 5: even though there's been such robust GDP growth during the

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Speaker 5: Biden administration. During this term, cumulative real disposable income growth

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Speaker 5: per person is likely to have just increased two point

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Speaker 5: nine percent when voters go to the polls. That compares

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Speaker 5: to twelve point four percent under Trump. So it's really

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Speaker 5: no wonder that voters are looking to Trump as a

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Speaker 5: better steward of the economy.

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Speaker 2: Well in Stuart, Also, when we're considering the much more

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Speaker 2: elevated levels of inflation we have seen during the Biden years,

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Speaker 2: often what we hear from critics of this administration is

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Speaker 2: because of that fiscal policy, all of that spending, all

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Speaker 2: of that money getting dumped into the economy, that's what

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Speaker 2: fueled inflation. Forget about anything on the supply side. But

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Speaker 2: you guys point out in this piece how it wasn't

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Speaker 2: just Biden that was sending out stimulus checks. Those happened

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Speaker 2: during the Trump administration as well as massive tax cut

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Speaker 2: and that those things, together with moves under the administration,

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Speaker 2: are likely what contributed to this inflation. How many years

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Speaker 2: back do we need to look to understand the dynamics

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Speaker 2: of what was driving prices higher, say in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 5: That's a great point, Kaylee. You know, folks tend to

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Speaker 5: give the current administration far too much credit and far

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Speaker 5: too much blame for what happens under their watch. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: to any extent that the Trump era tax cuts allowed

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Speaker 5: people to allowed people and companies to fortify their balance

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Speaker 5: sheets and pile up cash that would then be that

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Speaker 5: would then be sent out in a sort of rebuilding

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Speaker 5: phase as the economy reopened. Undoubtedly that contributed. Similarly, the

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Speaker 5: Trump administration distributed two stimulus checks. Biden it distributed one

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Speaker 5: check early on in his term. And when those checks

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Speaker 5: from President Trump were distributed, the economy was largely shut

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Speaker 5: down to try to try to prevent the spread of

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Speaker 5: COVID nineteen. So when there was that reopening, households were

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Speaker 5: flush with cash. Similarly, households had the ability to refinance

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Speaker 5: and at rock bottom rates. And so that's not anything

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Speaker 5: really to do with the presidential administration, but it's the

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Speaker 5: sort of thing that has a long lag in how

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Speaker 5: in how it creates a buffer that wraps around the

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Speaker 5: economy that can extend pretty far into the future, and

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Speaker 5: we're seeing the effects of that with persistent inflation right now.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, we are stort pall of Bloomberg Economics. Thank you

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Speaker 2: so much for joining us. It's a great piece. You

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Speaker 2: can check it out on the Bloomberg terminal as well

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Speaker 2: as online. It literally, point by point show goes through

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Speaker 2: different data points in the economy what they looked like

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Speaker 2: under the prior administration and the current one and one

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Speaker 2: thing we didn't talk about was mortgage rates as well

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Speaker 2: under Biden. How much how much higher they are And boy,

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Speaker 2: dona want to be homeowners like me?

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Speaker 6: Know it?

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Speaker 3: Well, that's a huge part of this. I mean, the

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Speaker 3: home ownership is further out of grasp for young people

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Speaker 3: than it was under Trump, and that is a big

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Speaker 3: sticking point in this story.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and of course we're continually hearing that because of

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Speaker 2: the high rates that might be something that is actually

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Speaker 2: fueling inflation now because it's keeping mortgage rates higher, people

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Speaker 2: can't afford to buy, so they're renting.

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Speaker 6: Rental prices go up and there you have that shelter input.

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Speaker 3: So imagine a world in which we need to cut

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Speaker 3: rates to fight inflation.

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Speaker 2: That's what kind of where we are is arguing today.

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Speaker 2: David Weston spoke with him, and it's definitely an interesting argument.

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Speaker 2: But of course, all of this factors into the fact

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Speaker 2: that we are in an election year in the economy

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Speaker 2: is going to be front and center on the minds

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Speaker 2: of many voters as they are deciding whether they prefer

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden or Donald Trump. And according to New York Times,

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Speaker 2: pulling with Sienna, in the key swing states that ultimately

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Speaker 2: will likely decide this election, and almost all of them,

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump right now is winning. We go now to

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Speaker 2: Don Levy of Sienna. He's joining us now here on

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Speaker 2: balance of power. He's the Sienna College Research Institute Director.

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Speaker 2: Don is great to have you back on the show.

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Speaker 2: So obviously we've had a few days now to sit

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Speaker 2: with the survey data. We know that Trump is leading

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Speaker 2: Biden and almost all of the swing states. We know

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Speaker 2: that Biden is losing support in key demographics, including black

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Speaker 2: and Hispanic voters, young voters as well. How much of

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Speaker 2: those dynamics are driven by the economy.

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Speaker 7: Well, voters tell us it's the number one issue by

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Speaker 7: more than a two to one margin over immigration. Ortion

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Speaker 7: finishes third, far and away. The economy is the most

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Speaker 7: important issue to voters right now. And as you pointed out,

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Speaker 7: right now, about three quarters of voters you're telling us

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Speaker 7: across the swing states that they think the economy is

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Speaker 7: no better than fear or poor by at least twenty

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Speaker 7: points in some states as much as twenty seven points.

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Speaker 7: They believe that former President Trump is a better steward

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Speaker 7: of the economy than his current President Biden. But one

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Speaker 7: little interesting nugget that you hadn't mentioned in your earlier piece.

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Speaker 7: The first question is survey that we asked across the

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Speaker 7: ground days were how satisfied are you with your life today?

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Speaker 7: We didn't specifically say the economy, we said your life.

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Speaker 7: There the finding is a little bit upside down. We

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Speaker 7: find that seventy four percent of voters across the six

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Speaker 7: battleground states actually, despite the economy, say that they are

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Speaker 7: satisfied with their life today. So there is a bit

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Speaker 7: of a disconnect amongst voters that perhaps gives a little

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Speaker 7: bit of hope to the Biden campaign.

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Speaker 3: Speaking of hope for the campaign, Don welcome back.

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Speaker 1: It's great to see you.

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Speaker 3: Everyone should know Don Levy was rated the best polster

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Speaker 3: in America by ABC News. And I bring that up, Don,

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Speaker 3: because I keep hearing in Washington that the polls are wrong,

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Speaker 3: that the samples broken, and that Democrats don't actually believe

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Speaker 3: the numbers that we're seeing. Despite the incredible consistency through

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Speaker 3: survey is not only your own, but others, other branded

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Speaker 3: surveys that are in some cases finding the same results.

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Speaker 3: How do you respond to those people?

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Speaker 7: Well, we respond by doing our work, you know. Coincidentally,

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Speaker 7: I'm at the American Association for Public Opinion Research conference

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Speaker 7: right now. Every single pollster in America here, I've been

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Speaker 7: talking to every single one of them this week, you know,

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Speaker 7: and by and large, we're getting very similar findings across

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Speaker 7: multiple different methodologies, multiple different ways to reach the public.

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Speaker 7: I'm pretty confident in our numbers right now. That isn't

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Speaker 7: to say that these are going to be the exact

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Speaker 7: number on election day. But I think you know one

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Speaker 7: thing I'll point out. For example, when you compare Biden

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Speaker 7: versus Trump to the United States Senate races, we find

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Speaker 7: that in for the states that we just pulled the

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Speaker 7: Senate race, the Democratic candidate for the Senate is outperforming

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Speaker 7: Joe Biden by at least a couple of points, as

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Speaker 7: many as thirteen points in Nevada. So voters are not

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Speaker 7: necessarily dissatisfied at present with Democrats, they're dissatisfied with Joe Biden.

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Speaker 7: So I think our numbers are pretty good at this point.

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Speaker 7: You know, the previous attack on US as an industry

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Speaker 7: is that we underrepresenting Trump voters. So for now, the

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Speaker 7: Democrats that turn around and say it's flipped upside down

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Speaker 7: is certainly their prerogative. But I think right now we

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Speaker 7: feel pretty good about the accuracy of our pulls.

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Speaker 2: Well, Don, it's an interesting point you're making about how

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Speaker 2: you are seeing stronger support for other Democratic presidents, just

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Speaker 2: not the Democratic president or Democratic candidates, rather just not

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Speaker 2: the Democratic presidential nominee. I guess it begs the question

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Speaker 2: whether that's going to translate into a lot of split

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Speaker 2: ticket voting, or if that's going to translate into a

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Speaker 2: reverse coattails kind of effect and could actually be something

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Speaker 2: that leads Joe Biden to outperform current expectations.

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Speaker 7: Fabulous question. You know, we're going to have to continue

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Speaker 7: to track at the sea. You take a state like

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Speaker 7: Nevada that you know most likely voters. Right now, we

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Speaker 7: have Joe Biden trailing about as many as thirteen points

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Speaker 7: Jackie rose and the Democratic incompent in the United States

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Speaker 7: Senate amongst likely voters is a break even ken Jackie

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Speaker 7: Rosen pulled Joe Biden along or will the voters with

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Speaker 7: their tickets right now in a poll, they're splitting their ticket.

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Speaker 7: They continue to tell us that they hold Joe Biden

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Speaker 7: responsible for the economy. They're looking for some sort of

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Speaker 7: relief there. Whether he can generate that between now and

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Speaker 7: the election day, whether there's another event, whether it's a trial,

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Speaker 7: whether it's a debate. You know, we're going to continue

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Speaker 7: to track that. But right now I would bet more

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Speaker 7: on split ticket than I would on the reverse cotail theory.

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Speaker 1: Huh.

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Speaker 4: Fascinating.

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Speaker 3: There was a great story of Politico this week that's

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Speaker 3: keeping a lot of people up at night done about

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Speaker 3: what happens in the world of a tie two sixty

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Speaker 3: nine to two sixty nine, nobody gets two seventy, Joe

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Speaker 3: Biden and Donald Trump neither winning the electoral College, and

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Speaker 3: this thing goes to the House of Representatives. This is

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Speaker 3: the kind of stuff that gets journalists talking. We can

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Speaker 3: stop down on a contested convention if you want. I'll

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Speaker 3: do whatever you want here, don But I wonder if

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Speaker 3: that is something that you see as a plausible scenario

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Speaker 3: that we're going to be talking talking about in November.

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Speaker 7: Well, we see it as a possible scenario Right now,

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Speaker 7: the three more southern battleground states Georgia, Arizona, Nevada are

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Speaker 7: all with sizeable leads for Donald Trump. The three northern

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Speaker 7: states remaining about a toss up.

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Speaker 1: We have.

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Speaker 7: Biden up in one of those three states, Michigan. But

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Speaker 7: assuming that Biden manages to pull off a victory in

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Speaker 7: the three northern states, Trump the three southern states, then

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Speaker 7: at this point the tiebreaker would be Nebraska two. So

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Speaker 7: I think it's a plausible scenario that we can have

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Speaker 7: a tie. But at this point we're going to concentrate

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Speaker 7: on measuring public opinion and we'll add up to score later.

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Speaker 2: I just have to say the prospect of a tie

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Speaker 2: as a journalist who will have to day how we

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Speaker 2: figure out who won that.

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Speaker 3: Cancel the plans for November. It's our job to keep

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Speaker 3: pulling you to that line, Don, even if you don't

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Speaker 3: want to talk about it, we'll at least try to

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Speaker 3: do our best.

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Speaker 7: Well, I'm sure that we're going to ask voters about it.

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Speaker 6: Boy, I'm sure that you will.

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Speaker 2: Don Levy of Siana College, always great to have you

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Speaker 2: here on balance of power. Thank you so much. And

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Speaker 2: of course it's not just about the headline figures in

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Speaker 2: the polls. Okay, Trump is leading Biden. It's about who

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Speaker 2: Trump is leading Biden with, or rather where Biden might

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Speaker 2: be losing support, which is to advantage Trump. Trump's gain

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Speaker 2: including Hispanic voters.

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Speaker 3: Sure exactly, Black voters.

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Speaker 2: Young voters, the coalition that Biden is going to need

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Speaker 2: if he wants another term in the.

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Speaker 3: White House, voters who brought him to the dance in

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty. As we discussed earlier, the speech at Morehouse

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Speaker 3: is going to be looked at very closely. The President

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Speaker 3: just wrapping I believe rem Mars at the African American Museum,

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Speaker 3: one of the great pieces of architecture and sites of

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Speaker 3: history here in the nation's capital.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can

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Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: ron Oto with the Bloomberg Business ap. You can also

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York

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Speaker 1: State j Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: The Friday edition on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm Joe

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Speaker 3: Matthew Indeed alongside Kaylee Lines here in Washington, d C.

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Speaker 3: And Kaylee we are coming off of a wild episode

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Speaker 3: in the US House that some are describing as a

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Speaker 3: new low. Speaker Mike Johnson already had his hands full.

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Speaker 3: This is an oversight hearing, and when we think oversight committee,

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Speaker 3: you and I have talked a lot about the membership

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Speaker 3: on that committee, Marjorie Taylor Green, Alexandri Costio Cortez. I

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Speaker 3: don't think I need to say anymore. If you watch

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Speaker 3: the video here, this was pretty ugly stuff. An argument

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Speaker 3: broke out, got super personal. Speaker Johnson says the hearing

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Speaker 3: was not a good look for Congress. We've got to

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Speaker 3: take the emotion out of these things and deal with

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Speaker 3: the issues on their substance. I think we may, however,

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Speaker 3: be far beyond removing emotion from politics right now in Washington.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's fair to say, this was, of course a

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Speaker 2: late night hearing. It started with a comment from Jorie

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Speaker 2: Taylor Green on another member of the committee's appearance. It

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Speaker 2: kind of all devolved into chaos from there. The chairman,

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Speaker 2: Jim Comer, had difficulty getting things back on track. But

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Speaker 2: in some sense it just underscores the difficulty with decorum

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Speaker 2: we have seen in the House of Representatives.

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Speaker 3: And what can be a dysfunctional body when it comes

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Speaker 3: to lawmaking. If you can't even get people to treat

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Speaker 3: each other with respect, how are you going to compromise

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Speaker 3: on lawmaking?

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Speaker 6: Fair enough, although some lawmaking is still happening.

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Speaker 2: In fact, just yesterday, a bill that had passed in

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Speaker 2: the House passed in the Senate related to how the

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Speaker 2: SEC makes rules for accounting for cryptocurrency on bank's balance sheets. Essentially,

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Speaker 2: it was a rule that makes it a lot harder

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Speaker 2: and more expensive to be a custodian of crypto. It

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Speaker 2: passed the Senate with a bipartisan vote, more than sixty votes.

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Speaker 2: It has been, though promised a veto from the White House.

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Speaker 2: But it raises this wider question of the fate of

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Speaker 2: legislation that the House is going to be voting on

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Speaker 2: next week. Crypto market structure is going to be up

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Speaker 2: for a vote, and I'm pleased to say joining us

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Speaker 2: now is Congressman Wiley n a Democrat from North Carolina

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Speaker 2: who serves on the House Financial Services Committee. Congressman, great

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Speaker 2: to have you here on balance of power. Welcome to

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Television and Radio. I know that you have focused

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Speaker 2: a great deal on crypto throughout your tenure in the

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Speaker 2: House thus far. How confident are you that this bill

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Speaker 2: is going to pass a full floor vote after it

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Speaker 2: made it out of committee.

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Speaker 8: Well, first of all, I just want to say how

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Speaker 8: glad I am that you're not asking me about Marjorie

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Speaker 8: Taylor Green.

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Speaker 4: In the oversight.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for that.

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Speaker 8: I am excited to talk about policy and the bipartisan

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Speaker 8: work we're doing in Congress to get things done. And

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Speaker 8: you know, if you're looking for good examples of a

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Speaker 8: bipartisan cooperation, our work in the House Financial Services Committee

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Speaker 8: on Digital assets is just that. This bill the fit

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Speaker 8: for the twenty first Century Act, the first ever you know,

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Speaker 8: a regulatory structure for digital assets, is coming to the

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Speaker 8: floor of Flora vote next week. I was part of

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Speaker 8: a group of six Democrats who worked with my Republican

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Speaker 8: colleagues and committee to move this bill. Similar group of

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Speaker 8: Democrats in the Ag Committee as well, so we're gonna

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Speaker 8: get a vote next week. I'm very excited because we

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Speaker 8: are operating on a hundred year old security law, securities

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Speaker 8: law for this industry, and we need to get regulations

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Speaker 8: in place. We need to protect consumers and that's what

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Speaker 8: this bill does.

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Speaker 3: Commerce but it's good to have you back. We haven't

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Speaker 3: asked you about Marjorie Taylor Green yet, But as far

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Speaker 3: as Crypto is concerned, what does the White House not

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Speaker 3: understand on this legislation?

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Speaker 8: You know, I think the White House had a great

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Speaker 8: executive order on Web three. I think, you know, Gary

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Speaker 8: Gensler and the SEC are really at odds with a

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Speaker 8: lot of others in the administration.

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Speaker 4: So I've been.

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Speaker 8: Very frustrated with Gary Gensler and the SEC's regulation by

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Speaker 8: enforcement and frankly just open hostility towards Crypto.

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Speaker 4: So we're seeing that play out.

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Speaker 8: I was part of a group of twenty one Democrats

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Speaker 8: who voted for the SAB one twenty one cra on

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Speaker 8: the House floor last week. But just yesterday we saw

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Speaker 8: twelve Senate Democrats agreeing with us that the SEC is

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Speaker 8: way out of line and out of step, including Senator

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Speaker 8: Schumer as part of that group of twelve Democrats.

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Speaker 4: So I think that's a great message.

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Speaker 8: And my hope is that Gary Gensler will see the

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Speaker 8: writing on the wall and rescind SAB one twenty one.

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Speaker 8: He has the ability to do that, and really what

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Speaker 8: he's doing is making, you know, putting the President in

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Speaker 8: a very difficult position forcing him to choose size. He

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Speaker 8: is not serving President Biden's best interests. So what he

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Speaker 8: can do is he can withdraw it and work on

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Speaker 8: the custodial banking peach, which is really the big policy

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Speaker 8: point here that we want to get right so that

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Speaker 8: you know, we have you know, bitcoin ETFs.

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Speaker 4: We want our US.

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Speaker 8: Highly regulated banks to be able to custody those assets,

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Speaker 8: and he's prohibiting them.

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Speaker 4: From doing that.

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Speaker 2: Well, Congressman, you were there speaking of the twelve Democrats

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Speaker 2: in the Senate who decided to vote in favor of

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Speaker 2: this legislation yesterday, and I wonder what your message is,

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Speaker 2: as a Democrat who is not running for reelection to

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Speaker 2: those that are, and how they should be considering crypto

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Speaker 2: in their policy considering, say, the chair of the Senate

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Speaker 2: Banking Committee, Shared Brown, is.

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Speaker 6: Very vulnerable in Ohio.

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Speaker 2: He's running against a pro crypto advocate in Bernie Marino.

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Speaker 2: There is tens of millions of dollars in crypto super

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Speaker 2: pac money that could be mobilized against candidates like him.

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Speaker 2: Is it a mistake for incumbent Democrats not to be

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Speaker 2: pro crypto?

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Speaker 6: Right now?

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Speaker 8: I think it's a mistake for this to become a

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Speaker 8: partisan issue. Twenty percent of registered voter's own crypto. Know

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Speaker 8: this industry is not going away. And the message I

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Speaker 8: have is, whether you love crypto or you hate crypto,

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Speaker 8: you should want to have regulations. That's our message is Democrats.

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Speaker 8: That's what the work I'm doing in a bipartisan way.

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Speaker 8: Does we provide regulations for this industry?

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Speaker 4: And we don't. What I don't want to see is

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Speaker 4: this become.

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Speaker 8: A partisan political issue because Web three should not be

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Speaker 8: at all.

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Speaker 3: Congressman, I'm not going to ask you about Marjorie Taylor

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Speaker 3: Green specifically, but when we look at the whole story

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Speaker 3: here and what's been happening in the House of Representatives,

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Speaker 3: the breakdown in decorum, the dysfunction that so many people

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Speaker 3: talk about. People should know that you're a freshman congressman

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Speaker 3: who's in fact in his senior term. You're leaving the House,

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Speaker 3: and we can get into the reasons why. But I

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Speaker 3: wonder if A you're happy to be leaving because of

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Speaker 3: the environment that you're surrounded in the workplace culture, if

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Speaker 3: we can call it that in the US House, and

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Speaker 3: B if you're on your way out of this body,

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Speaker 3: right now you can do anything you want. Are you

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Speaker 3: doing the risky business dance and the rotunda?

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Speaker 8: Like?

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Speaker 3: What do you do when you have free reign on

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Speaker 3: your way out the door?

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Speaker 8: Well, you know, I am not retiring voluntarily. My district

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Speaker 8: got jerry mannered away from me.

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Speaker 4: I love this job.

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Speaker 8: I have a lot more work I want to get done,

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Speaker 8: so we're working twice as hard to get things done

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Speaker 8: while I'm still in Congress.

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Speaker 4: There's future elections for me.

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Speaker 8: But the point that I think is really important for

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Speaker 8: anybody watching the chaos and confusion that we see playing

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Speaker 8: out in Congress, there is one thing to blame, and

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Speaker 8: you can put your finger right on it, and as

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Speaker 8: clear as day, it's extreme partisan jerrymandering. I got elected

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Speaker 8: to Congress and a Republican seat. It was a slightly

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Speaker 8: Republican seat, could have gone either way. I won by

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Speaker 8: three points because pro democracy Republicans made their voices heard

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Speaker 8: and voters had a real choice, And jerry mannering is

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Speaker 8: wrecking Congress. Less than ten percent of the seats are competitive.

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Speaker 8: The other ninety percent are only going to go to

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Speaker 8: whoever wins the Democratic primary or the Republican primary. That's

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Speaker 8: how members of Congress are designed right now is they

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Speaker 8: are just mainly here to win their Democratic primary, win

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Speaker 8: their Republican primary. That's why you see all these food

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Speaker 8: fights and the crazy stuff you see in oversight, because

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Speaker 8: that's their focus.

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Speaker 4: Less than ten percent are truly competitive. We won one

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Speaker 4: of those.

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Speaker 8: So the answer is non parts and independent redistricting. That

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Speaker 8: would totally change the face of Congress. You would get

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Speaker 8: so many more people who are just focused on getting

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Speaker 8: things done and working to cross the aisle. Well, that's

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Speaker 8: what we need a lot more of, and we're going

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Speaker 8: to have fewer and fewer seeds that are like that.

443
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:05,520
Speaker 4: We're losing mind.

444
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:09,560
Speaker 8: That's one example, and it's the thing that we got

445
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 8: to change if we want to get sanity back in Congress.

446
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 3: Were you going to go on the road with Dead

447
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:18,359
Speaker 3: and Company now that you have the time on your hands.

448
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,159
Speaker 3: I remember distinctly the tribute you made to the grateful

449
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,480
Speaker 3: dead on the floor of the House about one year ago.

450
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 4: You can own it now, Congressman, No, A thousand percent.

451
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 8: You know, I saw you two at this sphere. I

452
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 8: know Dead and Company is going to be.

453
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 4: At the sphere. I hope get out there to see them,

454
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 4: you know, And you know, I know J.

455
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 8: Powell is definitely a fan and has not had his

456
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 8: last Dead and Company show as well.

457
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 3: All right, well, we'll look for you on the vacuum

458
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 3: cleaner during the space jam at the sphere. Congressman, it's

459
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,240
Speaker 3: great to have you back with us here. On balance

460
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:56,479
Speaker 3: of power Wiley Nickel, the Democrat North Carolina's thirteenth district,

461
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:58,880
Speaker 3: And that's the whole point there, actually really interesting point

462
00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:02,359
Speaker 3: he made, Kaylee, on how partisan jerry mandering leads to

463
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:07,679
Speaker 3: more dysfunction like we saw last evening in Congress. You know,

464
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 3: Jack Fitzpatrick has to bear through this every day up

465
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:10,719
Speaker 3: there in person.

466
00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 2: He does the dysfunction and whether or not it leads

467
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:17,120
Speaker 2: ultimately to real legislating, which has been harder to come

468
00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,320
Speaker 2: by in this Congress. It has been historically unproductive. But

469
00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 2: theoretically there is still more work that they could do

470
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 2: through the remainder of this year, specifically before September thirtieth,

471
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,199
Speaker 2: when we're going to have to have the whole spending

472
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 2: fight over again and.

473
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 3: Think we'll actually do a budget this time.

474
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 2: Well, let's be honest, probably not. But Tom Cole, the

475
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 2: chair of the Appropriations Committee, is at least setting out

476
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 2: some numbers overnight.

477
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:41,440
Speaker 3: Yeah. Oh, and Jack has this. Of course, that's Jack

478
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,960
Speaker 3: Fitzpatrick's beat appropriations at Bloomberg Government, and I believe he's

479
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 3: with us right now.

480
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 1: Jack.

481
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,640
Speaker 3: Are we really going to have a regular order budget

482
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 3: process going into the next fiscal year with an election underway?

483
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 3: Or am I just making you laugh?

484
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,200
Speaker 9: They are going to try to get started. How far

485
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,520
Speaker 9: they make it through the process is another question. I

486
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 9: would say that Tom called the new Appropriations Chair even

487
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,800
Speaker 9: as he put out a markup schedule and said here's

488
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 9: what we're going to spend on each of the twelve

489
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 9: bills acknowledged, he would be, in his words, shocked if

490
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 9: they got everything done by September thirtieth. Even if the

491
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,959
Speaker 9: House is productive, the Senate tends to move slowly. It's

492
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 9: an election year. They still haven't agreed in a broad

493
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 9: way on how much money they want to spend overall

494
00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 9: on defense and non defense. So this puts a lot

495
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:29,919
Speaker 9: of pressure on the lame duck. The expectation is you

496
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,919
Speaker 9: try to make as much progress as you can and

497
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:35,880
Speaker 9: then basically whoever has a better day on election day

498
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 9: can decide do we want to have a quick compromise

499
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 9: in the lame Duck, or do we want to drag

500
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,680
Speaker 9: this out into twenty twenty five and try to use

501
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 9: more votes that we're getting in the next Congress to

502
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 9: get a better deal. So there's going to be a

503
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 9: lot of pressure on the lame Duck and some soul

504
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 9: searching from whoever wins and whoever loses in terms of

505
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:57,239
Speaker 9: getting a final vote, and in the meantime they're going

506
00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 9: to try to make some progress, but it's it's an

507
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:01,360
Speaker 9: uphill battle this year.

508
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 2: Well, as you talk Jack about the kind of differences

509
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 2: in opinion over defense versus non defense spending, it's worth

510
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 2: pointing out that in the top line figures that were

511
00:25:10,119 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 2: released by Chairman Cole yesterday, the bills would follow spending

512
00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 2: caps set in the twenty twenty three deat Limit law

513
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 2: that equate to one percent increase for dispense spending a

514
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 2: six percent cut for non defense funds.

515
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:24,160
Speaker 6: We're still talking about that debt.

516
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 2: Limit deal that then nobody wanted to follow and then

517
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 2: everybody ultimately basically ended up following. Anyway, when things were

518
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 2: all said and done, are we relitigating this over again?

519
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 1: Yeah?

520
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 9: Yes, they are continuously re litigating the twenty twenty three

521
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 9: debt limit deal, which is almost funny at this point

522
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 9: because the debt limit suspension lifts in January, so by

523
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 9: the time they're done arguing over the twenty twenty three deal,

524
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 9: they'll have to start negotiating another one to avoid a default.

525
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 9: There was the deal that was written into the law

526
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 9: that allows for a bigger increase for defense and cuts

527
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:58,639
Speaker 9: to non defense. But then you may remember there was

528
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:02,160
Speaker 9: a side deal between Democratic leadership and Kevin McCarthy, who's

529
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 9: no longer speaker, to allow more to basically keep it

530
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:09,120
Speaker 9: even the idea, the handshake deal was just a one

531
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 9: percent increase for both defense and non defense, so parody

532
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 9: between the two House. Republicans are saying, well, that wasn't

533
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 9: written into the law specifically, so we're not doing it,

534
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 9: and we're cutting more money from non defense. There's not

535
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:24,440
Speaker 9: a lot of middle ground here. There's not a lot

536
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 9: of meeting in the middle between Republicans and Democrats, and

537
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 9: that fight is going to have to play out for

538
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 9: probably a number of months before there's a reckoning again,

539
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:34,720
Speaker 9: probably in the lame duck.

540
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 3: Jack, I've got to ask you about this meltdown on

541
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 3: the Oversight Committee hearing that we saw last night. We

542
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,119
Speaker 3: were talking about it with the congressman before you joined.

543
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 3: I'm not going to quote what was said. Marjorie Taylor

544
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 3: Green instigated this. We had two members of Congress yelling

545
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 3: at each other, criticizing their personal appearances, and things got

546
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 3: pretty ugly here, to the point where the speaker had

547
00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 3: to issue a statement. If this happened or prior speakers

548
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 3: Nancy Pelosi, maybe John Bayner, wouldn't these people be brought

549
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 3: into the Speaker's office and reprimanded. What's going to happen here?

550
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 9: Maybe? Maybe not? You know, you look specifically at the

551
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 9: Marjorie Taylor Green story. When she was first elected, she

552
00:27:17,359 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 9: had made a number of comments that led to a

553
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 9: fight over whether she would serve on committees. She is

554
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 9: now on a committee. She kind of allied herself to

555
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 9: some extent with Kevin McCarthy, not necessarily tied closely to leadership.

556
00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,120
Speaker 9: But it's a bit of a sign of the times

557
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:38,400
Speaker 9: that even when there is a push to keep members

558
00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:42,520
Speaker 9: off of committees for one reason or another, those pushes

559
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 9: don't always succeed, and in a very very narrow majority

560
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 9: that Republicans have in the House, even if they feel

561
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 9: one of their members is doing something inappropriate, they may

562
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:56,440
Speaker 9: rely on their votes and may have to work with them,

563
00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 9: not indefinitely, as we saw with George Santos, but sometimes

564
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 9: for a long time. So there are a lot of

565
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 9: factors that play into that, and Marjorie Taylor Green seems

566
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 9: to almost be at the top of the list of

567
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:13,120
Speaker 9: members who have tested the limits of leadership's patients.

568
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 2: All right, Jack Fitzpatrick, Congressional reporter for Bloomberg Government, always

569
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 2: covering the.

570
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:20,920
Speaker 6: Chaos for us, Thank you so much.

571
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

572
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 3: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

573
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

574
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern

575
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot com.