WEBVTT - What Munich Means for the Shifting Global Order 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:08.440 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, and. 0:00:08.360 --> 0:00:20.120 I think Barco did a great job at Munich. I'm 0:00:20.160 --> 0:00:22.919 Sephanie Flanders, head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg. And 0:00:23.040 --> 0:00:25.279 this is Trump Economics, the podcast that looks at the 0:00:25.320 --> 0:00:28.760 economic world of Donald Trump, how he's already shaped the 0:00:28.760 --> 0:00:31.200 global economy and what on earth is going to happen 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:33.440 next and this week? As we heard at the top 0:00:33.440 --> 0:00:36.280 of the show, President Donald Trump thinks Secretary of State 0:00:36.360 --> 0:00:40.040 Marco Rubio did a great job at the Munich Security Conference. 0:00:40.440 --> 0:00:43.559 But how did European leaders and the world more broadly 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:47.800 interpret his message? And where did the Munich Summit leave 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:53.199 us in relation to Europe and its future relations with China. Well, 0:00:53.200 --> 0:00:54.720 I know it happened a few days ago, but I 0:00:54.720 --> 0:00:57.680 thought for once we could linger a little on that conference, 0:00:58.240 --> 0:01:00.520 because it is a good opportunity to take of where 0:01:00.560 --> 0:01:02.760 we are and also to show off the fact that 0:01:02.800 --> 0:01:05.520 our editor in chief had the only sit down interview 0:01:05.800 --> 0:01:10.360 with Marco Rubio, and we also had our head of geoeconomics, 0:01:10.440 --> 0:01:14.759 Jenny Welsh, in attendance, launching lots of exciting research. So 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:17.520 I am joined by John Mickleswaite, editor in chief of 0:01:17.520 --> 0:01:23.200 Bloomberg News and Jenny Welsh, chief geoeconomics analyst for Bloomberg Economics. 0:01:24.280 --> 0:01:26.440 John as I mentioned, you had the only sit down 0:01:26.440 --> 0:01:29.200 interview with him. What were your kind of personal impressions. 0:01:29.360 --> 0:01:31.440 Had you met him before, what did you think of him? 0:01:31.760 --> 0:01:33.520 I had met him a long time ago when he 0:01:33.680 --> 0:01:36.080 was more in the kind of I suppose neo conservative 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:40.800 mold than the I love JD Vance mold. I thought 0:01:40.840 --> 0:01:43.200 it was interesting. I think you said style and substance. 0:01:43.400 --> 0:01:45.000 I think if you look at the substance of what 0:01:45.040 --> 0:01:48.280 he said, he was quite careful not to digress too 0:01:48.360 --> 0:01:51.880 much from the kind of Trump agenda, but in terms 0:01:51.960 --> 0:01:56.520 of style, it was said way more nicely and also 0:01:56.600 --> 0:01:59.600 with a lot of kind of common cultural heritage. You know, 0:02:00.520 --> 0:02:04.040 he really believed these things about the rolling Stones and 0:02:04.760 --> 0:02:08.480 beer and Christopher Columbus. That's very much part of the 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:10.760 kind of Rubio worldview is that we, you know, there's 0:02:10.800 --> 0:02:15.080 this great common civilization and we're much stronger together in 0:02:15.120 --> 0:02:19.200 that way. And that's that's I think the main thing 0:02:19.200 --> 0:02:21.240 that came across, and I think the other bit is 0:02:21.280 --> 0:02:24.320 a degree of self confidence. I mean, remember when he 0:02:24.360 --> 0:02:26.720 went into the Trumpet administration, there was a lot of 0:02:26.720 --> 0:02:31.119 talk about, you know, little Marco's gone to join. Actually, 0:02:31.440 --> 0:02:33.880 as the years have gone by, it he has become 0:02:34.160 --> 0:02:37.840 a much stronger, more significant figure, and you see his 0:02:38.040 --> 0:02:42.040 fingerprints all over things to do with Venezuela most obviously 0:02:42.080 --> 0:02:46.359 and the Americas, but just quite cleverly, you know, deciding 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:50.200 which bits he's going to have an input into and 0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:51.760 which one. You know, some of the Middle East stuff 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:54.840 he's he's handed over to wit Coough and things. But 0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:58.000 he's more popular with the State Department people than you 0:02:58.080 --> 0:03:00.960 might have expected a few years ago. He's he's on 0:03:01.040 --> 0:03:05.000 and up, and but people are relentlessly thinking about in 0:03:05.040 --> 0:03:07.680 the presidential side, where you could and out of the 0:03:07.680 --> 0:03:11.320 Trump cabinet. Him and jd. Vance are the two obvious 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:14.000 people who could head in a presidential direction. 0:03:14.320 --> 0:03:16.359 Jenny. We've had Chris Kennedy on the show a few 0:03:16.360 --> 0:03:18.959 times in the past, and recently he was talking about Venezuela. 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:22.320 He works for you now as a geoeconomics analyst, but before, 0:03:22.720 --> 0:03:25.240 up until last summer, he was working for Rubio in 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:29.160 the State Department's policy planning unit. Very much to John's point. 0:03:29.320 --> 0:03:32.920 He wrote an essay for Bloomberg highlighting that he was 0:03:32.960 --> 0:03:36.000 one of the few figures in the administration who'd found 0:03:36.000 --> 0:03:40.240 a line somehow between the America Firsts and the more 0:03:40.320 --> 0:03:44.760 neo conservative wings of the president's coalition. Do you think 0:03:44.800 --> 0:03:47.320 that's going to come under more strain? Did you see 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:50.240 any of the strains in evidence in Munich? 0:03:51.160 --> 0:03:53.640 Yeah, I would agree with Chris's take there. And by 0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:55.440 the way, he also has a really great profile of 0:03:55.520 --> 0:03:58.720 Rubio available on the terminal for terminal clients as well, 0:03:59.480 --> 0:04:02.800 and this is something he siloated too. Rubio has played 0:04:02.800 --> 0:04:06.280 his cards exceptionally well over the last year or so. 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:09.880 He's been given far more responsibilities. He's not just Secretary 0:04:09.880 --> 0:04:12.640 of State, he's also a national security advisor. He's leveraged 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:15.600 that to his advantage and is especially played a really 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:19.359 strong hand in US policy towards Venezuela, which Trump regards 0:04:19.400 --> 0:04:24.000 as incredibly successful, especially after the Operation alis Maduro. That 0:04:24.120 --> 0:04:27.320 being said, and this is often a law in Washington, 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:29.840 the more successful you are, the more powerful you are, 0:04:30.400 --> 0:04:34.600 the more risky your position can be, and especially as 0:04:34.680 --> 0:04:38.039 you start to gain prominence. Right, one of Rubio's I 0:04:38.080 --> 0:04:40.640 think tactics over the last year has been to make 0:04:40.640 --> 0:04:43.080 sure that he doesn't steal the spotlight that he has 0:04:43.160 --> 0:04:48.280 been very careful to follow and implement policy and pay 0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:51.760 respect to the President as kind of the strategists in chief. 0:04:52.360 --> 0:04:54.600 And one of the risks that I think he faces 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:57.560 is the more his star has risen, the more attention 0:04:57.640 --> 0:05:00.080 there will be to him personally, and that can be 0:05:00.120 --> 0:05:03.840 a very tricky thing to navigate in Washington, but especially 0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:05.000 in the Trump administration. 0:05:05.480 --> 0:05:08.640 So, Jenny, did you find a sort of focused on 0:05:08.720 --> 0:05:11.680 the tone of a speech and much less on a 0:05:11.760 --> 0:05:17.719 pretty uncompromising and still quite conditional approach to the transatlantic 0:05:17.760 --> 0:05:20.479 relationship that was actually in the small print of what 0:05:20.560 --> 0:05:21.039 he said. 0:05:21.480 --> 0:05:24.880 What was interesting to me is that there was widespread recognition. 0:05:25.080 --> 0:05:27.599 You heard this from every European speaker who took the 0:05:27.600 --> 0:05:29.800 main stage. You heard it in the sidimens, You heard 0:05:29.839 --> 0:05:32.920 it in the lounges and in the hallways too, of 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:35.800 the idea that the world is changing, Europe needs to 0:05:35.839 --> 0:05:39.320 step up, not just because of American pressure to do so, 0:05:39.360 --> 0:05:41.919 but also because of the friction with the United States 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:45.520 and concerns about reliability there. What still seemed to be 0:05:45.640 --> 0:05:48.720 very much a nascent conversation is how does that actually happen? 0:05:49.240 --> 0:05:52.520 There didn't seem to be very many clear pass forward. 0:05:52.600 --> 0:05:55.600 There was still a lot of discussion about internal divisions, 0:05:56.000 --> 0:06:00.680 and then, obviously, especially for you members, there's addition bureaucratic 0:06:00.760 --> 0:06:03.560 hurdles to overcome that get in the way of everything 0:06:03.640 --> 0:06:07.000 from figuring out how do we develop a more independent, 0:06:07.040 --> 0:06:10.880 self reliant defense industrial base to how do we address 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:15.159 critical mineral reliance on China issues when we have to 0:06:15.160 --> 0:06:18.039 work more together as a union in the United States 0:06:18.080 --> 0:06:20.720 is kind of a unitary actor that can move much faster, 0:06:21.240 --> 0:06:24.520 So that to me was kind of this interesting contradiction 0:06:24.760 --> 0:06:27.680 of a real strong shared awareness of the issue but 0:06:28.000 --> 0:06:30.800 still not a clear sense of the way to address it. 0:06:31.839 --> 0:06:33.479 That does tend to be the rule with yourop. They're 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:36.040 really really good at understanding the problem, but analyzing the 0:06:36.120 --> 0:06:38.280 problem slightly less good at solving it. 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:38.560 Job. 0:06:38.600 --> 0:06:40.320 We're going to play a bit of your interview, but 0:06:40.560 --> 0:06:43.159 I guess we should ask you all the headlines you wanted. 0:06:43.760 --> 0:06:45.560 I think, actually the honest truth is, I went in 0:06:45.600 --> 0:06:48.560 there thinking he'd made quite an impressive speech, did I think, 0:06:48.640 --> 0:06:52.960 pull on lots of issues that matter a lot to 0:06:53.160 --> 0:06:55.920 Rebio and which have always mattered to him, And yet 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:57.400 he managed to do it in a way that wouldn't 0:06:57.400 --> 0:07:00.640 annoy Donaldrump but also please thee Europeans. I tried to 0:07:00.640 --> 0:07:02.680 push him more into you know what does this mean 0:07:02.720 --> 0:07:05.120 in practice? You know, what do you actually expect the 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:06.040 Europeans to do? 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:07.159 Let's hear a bit of it. 0:07:13.440 --> 0:07:16.320 Mary Ruper, Sexuary of State, thank you for talking to Bloomberg. 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:19.040 You've just made this rather remarkable speech where you talked 0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:23.280 about the destiny of Europe and America always being intertwined. 0:07:23.840 --> 0:07:26.240 You talked about an alliance which has stretched all the 0:07:26.240 --> 0:07:29.560 way culturally from Michelangelo to the Rolling Stones, the first 0:07:29.560 --> 0:07:32.280 I suspect for a sexual estate, but a culture that 0:07:32.320 --> 0:07:36.800 has bled and died together. But the very common theme 0:07:36.880 --> 0:07:40.320 of your speech was the need to share the burden, 0:07:40.920 --> 0:07:43.760 the need for Europe and America to do to do 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:46.400 things together, which was slightly different from the Vice President 0:07:46.480 --> 0:07:49.160 last year. Were you kind of offering a carrot where 0:07:49.200 --> 0:07:50.800 perhaps he was offering a state. 0:07:50.840 --> 0:07:51.880 I think it's the same message. 0:07:51.880 --> 0:07:53.840 I think what the Vice President said last year very 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:56.160 clearly was that Europe and made a series of decisions 0:07:56.200 --> 0:07:59.800 internally that were threatening to the alliance and ultimately to 0:07:59.800 --> 0:08:01.840 them themselves. Not because we hate Europe or we don't 0:08:01.880 --> 0:08:04.480 like Europeans, But because what is it that we fight for? 0:08:04.520 --> 0:08:05.960 What is it that binds us together? 0:08:06.360 --> 0:08:08.520 And ultimately it's the fact that we are both heirs 0:08:08.560 --> 0:08:11.120 to the same civilization, and it's a great civilization and 0:08:11.160 --> 0:08:12.800 it's one we should be proud of. It's one that's 0:08:12.840 --> 0:08:15.920 contributed extraordinarily to the world, and it's one frankly upon 0:08:15.960 --> 0:08:18.800 which America is built. From our language, to our system 0:08:18.840 --> 0:08:22.200 of government, to our laws, to the food we eat, 0:08:22.240 --> 0:08:24.160 to the name of our cities and towns, all of 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:27.000 it deeply linked to this Western civilization and culture that 0:08:27.040 --> 0:08:29.880 we should be proud of, and it's worth defending. And 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:32.840 ultimately that's the point. It is because we understand that 0:08:32.960 --> 0:08:36.520 ultimately our own fate will be intertwined with what happens 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:38.920 with Europe. We want Europe to survive, We want Europe 0:08:38.920 --> 0:08:42.640 to prosper because we're interconnected in so many different ways, 0:08:42.679 --> 0:08:44.920 and because our alliance is so critical. But it has 0:08:44.960 --> 0:08:47.600 to be an alliance of allies that are capable and 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:50.440 willing to fight for who they are and what's important. 0:08:50.520 --> 0:08:52.560 You see a parallel. You seem to see a parallel 0:08:52.600 --> 0:08:54.960 between the Cold War, which I think I would argue 0:08:54.960 --> 0:08:58.160 that the America beat the Soviet Union because it had 0:08:58.200 --> 0:09:01.000 a common idea and it had allies on its side. 0:09:01.160 --> 0:09:04.360 You're now in a struggle with China. People say you've 0:09:04.400 --> 0:09:06.559 often been a hawk on that subject. You're want a 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:10.640 struggle with China. Do you think you absolutely need Europe 0:09:10.720 --> 0:09:11.959 to be able to Yeah. 0:09:12.000 --> 0:09:12.960 I would say two things. 0:09:12.960 --> 0:09:15.440 The first the mentions of the Cold War to remind 0:09:15.480 --> 0:09:17.400 people of everything we've achieved together in the. 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:18.839 Past and times when there was doubt. 0:09:18.920 --> 0:09:20.760 But it's also a reminder that at the end of 0:09:20.800 --> 0:09:23.680 that era, when we won the Cold War, there was 0:09:23.760 --> 0:09:26.600 this euphoria that led us to make some terrible decisions 0:09:26.600 --> 0:09:29.280 that have now left as vulnerable and de industrialized the West. 0:09:29.520 --> 0:09:33.720 It allowed it left us increasingly dependent on others, including China, 0:09:34.400 --> 0:09:36.800 for our critical supplies, and that needs to be reversed 0:09:36.800 --> 0:09:39.360 in order to safeguard us. And so I do think, yes, 0:09:39.440 --> 0:09:41.920 it would be ideal to have a Western supply chain 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:44.319 that is free from extortion from anyone. So I think 0:09:44.320 --> 0:09:46.680 we do have a vested interest in that regard. Today 0:09:46.760 --> 0:09:49.400 is different than yesterday, but it has parallels, not in 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:52.360 that China is the new Soviet Union, but that in 0:09:52.480 --> 0:09:55.320 our future collectively will be stronger if we work on 0:09:55.360 --> 0:09:56.120 these things together. 0:09:56.559 --> 0:09:58.920 There is sort of allies Mark Colony has just been 0:09:58.960 --> 0:10:02.080 to Beijing. Stahmars just beat to Beijing. Mertz is about 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:04.920 to go there. Do you worry that they're beginning to 0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:06.920 drift off too much in that direction? 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:09.640 No, I think nation states need to interact with one another. Remember, 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:12.960 I serve under a president that's willing to meet with anybody. 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:15.440 I mean, to be frank, I'm pretty confident in saying 0:10:15.440 --> 0:10:17.400 that if the Ayatola said tomorrow he wanted to meet 0:10:17.400 --> 0:10:19.360 with President Trump, the President would meet him, not because 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:21.679 he agrees with the Ayatola, but because he thinks that's 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:23.480 the way you solve problems in the world, and he 0:10:23.520 --> 0:10:26.760 doesn't view meeting someone as a concession. Likewise, the President 0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:28.920 intends to travel to Beijing and has already met once 0:10:28.960 --> 0:10:32.160 with President g and in this very forum yesterday I 0:10:32.200 --> 0:10:35.679 met with my counterpart, the Foreign Minister of China. So 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:38.920 we expect nation states to interact with one another. In 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:40.960 the end, we expect nation states to act in their 0:10:41.040 --> 0:10:45.079 national interest. I don't think that is excluded that you 0:10:45.160 --> 0:10:47.840 know that in no way runs counter to our desire 0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:50.559 to work together on things that we share in common 0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:53.439 or threats with face in common. But I don't think 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:57.120 visiting Beijing or meeting with the Chinese is on the country. 0:10:57.120 --> 0:10:59.360 I think it would be irresponsible for great powers not 0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:01.840 to have relations ships and talk tough things and to 0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:04.839 the extent possible and avoid unnecessary conflict. But there will 0:11:04.840 --> 0:11:06.520 be areas we'll never agree on, and those are the 0:11:06.559 --> 0:11:08.080 areas that I hope we can work together on. 0:11:08.160 --> 0:11:10.600 So you think the rupture that many people have spoken 0:11:10.600 --> 0:11:13.679 about is illusory that hasn't happened yet, Well, there's. 0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:15.160 No I mean, even as I speak to you now, 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:18.560 there are US troops deployed here on this continent, on 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:21.080 behalf of NATO. There are still all kinds of cooperation 0:11:21.160 --> 0:11:23.520 that go on at every level, from intelligence to commercial 0:11:23.520 --> 0:11:24.080 and economic. 0:11:24.120 --> 0:11:24.839 The links remain. 0:11:25.240 --> 0:11:28.800 I think there is a readjustment that's happening because I 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:31.040 think we have to understand that we want to reinvigorate 0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:33.160 this This alliance has to be about different things than 0:11:33.200 --> 0:11:35.200 it's been in the past, because the challenges of the 0:11:35.200 --> 0:11:37.800 twenty first century are different than the challenges of the 0:11:37.840 --> 0:11:38.840 twentieth thanks. 0:11:38.880 --> 0:11:41.800 But that's being most obviously tested at the moment as Ukraine, 0:11:42.600 --> 0:11:44.720 you see all these numbers from the front where the 0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:47.040 Ukrainians do seem to be doing better in terms of 0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:50.360 what's happening in the Russians. Do you think Ukraine or 0:11:50.520 --> 0:11:52.920 do you think Russia is still winning that war or 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:54.880 where do you place it militarily? 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:57.280 I think that's a difficult order to say anyone is winning. 0:11:57.559 --> 0:12:00.440 The Russians are losing seven to eight thousand soldiers. 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:03.280 A week, a week, not not wounded dead. 0:12:03.800 --> 0:12:07.560 Ukraine has suffered extraordinary damage, including you know, overnight and 0:12:07.600 --> 0:12:10.720 again to its energy infrastructure, and it will take billions 0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:14.040 of dollars in years and years to rebuild that country. 0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:16.440 So I don't think anyone can claim to be winning it. 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:19.720 I think that both sides are suffering tremendous damage, and 0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:21.360 we'd like to see the war come to an end. 0:12:21.440 --> 0:12:23.920 It's a senseless war, and our view, the president believes 0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:25.640 that very deeply. He believes the war would have never 0:12:25.640 --> 0:12:27.360 happened that he'd been president at the time. 0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:28.839 So we're doing two things. 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:32.240 So obviously we continued, Look, we don't provide arms to Russia, 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:33.440 we provide arms to Ukraine. 0:12:33.480 --> 0:12:36.000 We don't sanction Ukraine. We sanctioned Russia. 0:12:36.040 --> 0:12:37.920 But at the same time, we find ourselves in a 0:12:38.000 --> 0:12:42.120 unique position of serving as probably the only nation on 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:44.800 Earth that can bring the two sides to discuss the 0:12:44.840 --> 0:12:49.240 potential for ending this war on negotiated terms. 0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:51.280 And it's an obligation we haven't. 0:12:51.120 --> 0:12:53.200 We won't walk away from because we think it's a 0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:56.400 very unique one to have. It may not come to fruition, unfortunately. 0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:58.080 I hope it does, and I think there are days 0:12:58.080 --> 0:13:00.560 when I feel more optimistic about it than others. But 0:13:00.600 --> 0:13:03.040 we're going to keep trying because that is in the end, 0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:05.200 this war will not be solved militarily. It will be 0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:07.600 in the end, it will come to a negotiated settlement. 0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:09.680 We'd like to see that happen as soon as possible. 0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:13.040 Marco Rubio, thank you very much for talking to Bloomberg. 0:13:13.160 --> 0:13:21.720 Thank you, and. 0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:33.680 So John. We've obviously we talked quite a lot about 0:13:33.679 --> 0:13:35.360 Marco Ruby, but I wanted to also use this a 0:13:35.480 --> 0:13:39.600 chance to kind of take stock of how Europe was 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:43.040 responding to this new world that Trump has been helping 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:45.920 to shape. And one of the issues that was discussed 0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:50.160 a lot is defense and even talk of the sharing 0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:53.960 of the nuclear umbrella between Germany and France. That seemed 0:13:54.000 --> 0:13:55.840 like a new stage. It wasn't just they're going to 0:13:55.840 --> 0:13:58.600 spend more on defense, but they're going to actually be 0:13:58.840 --> 0:14:02.240 seriously thinking about alternatives to the US or some kind 0:14:02.240 --> 0:14:05.760 of diversification away from the US if they're thinking about 0:14:05.800 --> 0:14:07.160 defending themselves from Russia. 0:14:07.200 --> 0:14:09.400 There's one European leader who rather nicely told me, and 0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:11.320 I'm going to get it slightly wrong, that you know, 0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:13.880 the way in which Europe proceeded was you have lethar 0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:18.120 G the event, have crisis chaos, and then you end 0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:21.800 up with a suboptimal solution of sorts. And I think 0:14:21.880 --> 0:14:24.840 they're somewhere in the kind of chaos towards the suboptimal 0:14:25.040 --> 0:14:29.400 solution stage of it. At the moment, I think that Greenland, 0:14:30.200 --> 0:14:35.520 no matter how often the Trump administration out all people 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:38.080 around the Trump administration tried to say, oh, it really 0:14:38.080 --> 0:14:40.920 didn't matter that much, I think it really did matter. 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:43.680 I think it struck through right into some of the 0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:48.360 main leaders in Europe that they realized that they they 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:51.640 can't rely on America. Many of them might hope that 0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:56.680 a different administration would be more supportive, and many of 0:14:56.720 --> 0:14:58.480 them might even have looked at Ruby and thought, well, 0:14:58.480 --> 0:15:00.800 if he was running it, this would be we could 0:15:00.800 --> 0:15:04.800 deal with this. But the idea that they can necessarily 0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:09.000 one hundred percent rely on that, I think is now out. 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:11.120 You've even got Germany looking at you know, what the 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:15.960 nuclear options are for it, You've got Britain talking to 0:15:16.080 --> 0:15:18.680 France about its nucleus. Suddenly a lot of things are 0:15:18.680 --> 0:15:21.680 on the table that weren't there before in terms of 0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:25.240 where they've got to on that sort of voyage. Yes, 0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:27.680 you've got you know, Germany is going to build Europe's 0:15:27.680 --> 0:15:30.840 biggest army. You've got more money going back into defense 0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:35.160 in several different areas. But it's the sort of next 0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:37.600 stage where you get the suboptimal solutions. 0:15:37.720 --> 0:15:37.880 You know. 0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:42.720 One really obvious point is Europe has countless defense manufacturers 0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:47.160 and different priorities in each part of different armies and 0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:51.760 different versions of tanks and different simplifying all that would 0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:55.040 not only save a fortune, it would also end up 0:15:55.040 --> 0:15:57.680 with a much kind of better fighting force at the end. 0:15:57.800 --> 0:15:59.320 And they don't seem to be getting there. 0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:01.440 And it was very striking to me some of that 0:16:01.520 --> 0:16:06.520 conversation about the nuclear deterrent and potential options involving the 0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:09.400 French and potentially the British or indeed a sort of 0:16:09.440 --> 0:16:13.400 pan European Jenny, I was wondering, how seriously do you 0:16:13.440 --> 0:16:13.840 take that? 0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:17.280 I think it's important to take it seriously. The other 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:19.440 thing that comes to mind that I think is really 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:21.920 striking here is the timing of this. This is coming 0:16:22.000 --> 0:16:26.480 after the expiration of the last major arms limitation treaty 0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:29.520 between the US and Russia. A new start expired earlier 0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:33.520 this month, and I think the world has yet to 0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:36.920 fully appreciate or reckon with the idea that we're going 0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:40.120 to see a new wave of nuclear proliferation. I think 0:16:40.160 --> 0:16:43.480 the europe context is obviously unique and driven in part 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:46.240 by these frictions with Washington, but it is taking place 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:50.880 against the backdrop of this broader nuclear movement where I 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:52.880 think we're going to see not just the US and 0:16:52.920 --> 0:16:56.000 Russia because the expiration of this treaty, China has already 0:16:56.000 --> 0:17:00.480 been embarking on a major nuclear weapons expansion, but also 0:17:00.560 --> 0:17:06.320 other countries. And the consequences of that for geopolitical stability 0:17:06.400 --> 0:17:11.240 and the consequences of conflict are immense. And you can't 0:17:11.359 --> 0:17:15.640 get more dangerous and more impactful than nuclear conflict, right, 0:17:16.119 --> 0:17:18.399 And that's the world in which we are going to 0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:19.400 increasingly live in. 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:23.040 Just just to follow what Jenny said, if you look 0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:25.719 at if you remember in the Ukraine War, fairly early on, 0:17:25.800 --> 0:17:28.400 there was this issue about whether Putin would use tactical 0:17:28.520 --> 0:17:32.960 nuclear weapons, and the Chinese immediately jumped or supposedly jumped 0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:35.400 on his back and said, absolutely, no way, that's sort 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:37.840 of a road we're going to pass over. I think 0:17:37.960 --> 0:17:41.560 by the same token, you know, the idea that Germany 0:17:42.280 --> 0:17:44.680 would ever think of sort of turning to people or 0:17:44.680 --> 0:17:47.800 other than America to protect it, the idea that Germany 0:17:47.920 --> 0:17:50.840 might in the end even consider doing it itself. You know, 0:17:51.119 --> 0:17:54.280 this is a this is a very different world. And 0:17:54.320 --> 0:17:57.520 it's that thing where Donald Trump has thrown a stone 0:17:57.560 --> 0:18:01.080 in the pool and the ripples still heading out. And 0:18:01.400 --> 0:18:04.359 again a lot of these things may not happen, but 0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:07.960 the mere fact people are thinking about it is a really, 0:18:08.000 --> 0:18:08.720 really big deal. 0:18:08.880 --> 0:18:12.639 Jenny, you mentioned China. That's another thing that's changed out 0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:15.240 the Munich Security Conference. You were telling us earlier you 0:18:15.320 --> 0:18:18.159 used to be very much focused on transatlantic ties, but 0:18:18.240 --> 0:18:22.040 you now see much more. There's more people there from Asia, 0:18:22.080 --> 0:18:26.280 and you know, clearly there's now more focus in Europe 0:18:26.280 --> 0:18:28.439 from a kind of strategic standpoint as well as an 0:18:28.480 --> 0:18:33.440 economic standpoint on China. So, you know, do you feel 0:18:34.080 --> 0:18:37.280 that you've got a clearer sense of how Europeans were 0:18:37.320 --> 0:18:39.680 thinking about China, Because a few years ago it would 0:18:39.680 --> 0:18:44.320 have been all about de risking and reducing their vulnerability 0:18:44.440 --> 0:18:47.560 to China in terms of supply chains, as we discussed 0:18:47.600 --> 0:18:49.320 on the program a couple of weeks ago. Now almost 0:18:49.359 --> 0:18:52.639 it's the opposite. Now people are talking about building ties 0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:53.240 with China. 0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:58.200 Absolutely, and as you're noting there, it's very complex. Europe 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:02.160 is really facing difficult choices on both sides. On one hand, 0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:05.480 the frictions with Washington do lead them to naturally consider 0:19:05.520 --> 0:19:08.680 the other major power in the world. On the other hand, 0:19:08.840 --> 0:19:11.560 they're extremely frustrated with China for what they see as 0:19:11.720 --> 0:19:14.720 China's ongoing support for Russia during its war in Ukraine. 0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:16.680 And this was a question that got pitched to the 0:19:16.760 --> 0:19:21.120 Chinese Foreign Minister Wangi after his remarks, which by the way, 0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:25.560 they purposely put right after Rubio so couldn't underscore more 0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:28.320 clearly the idea that there's a contrast being painted here 0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:30.840 between the United States and China. Is the two major 0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:34.000 powers in the world, and his response I think left 0:19:34.000 --> 0:19:38.680 many Europeans deeply unsatisfied, which is essentially China remains very 0:19:38.720 --> 0:19:42.920 committed to the peace process, but no comments on questions 0:19:42.920 --> 0:19:47.159 about supporting Russia's war machine and ongoing strong economic and 0:19:47.200 --> 0:19:51.240 strategic ties. The other challenge that Europe faces with China 0:19:51.560 --> 0:19:54.600 is Preussia from Chinese exports and Chinese silver capacity, and 0:19:54.640 --> 0:19:57.760 that's something that continues to be a strain that we 0:19:57.880 --> 0:20:01.760 heard from European leaders and itamans from other Europeans as well, 0:20:02.440 --> 0:20:05.399 And again I think it's it's one of those examples 0:20:05.440 --> 0:20:08.600 of recognition of the problem, a frustration with the problem, 0:20:09.119 --> 0:20:11.640 but no clear sense of the way for in part 0:20:11.640 --> 0:20:15.080 because they're navigating these difficult trade offs with Washington, and 0:20:15.119 --> 0:20:16.840 that's something I think we're going to continue to see 0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:17.280 to play out. 0:20:17.320 --> 0:20:19.159 And John, there's been a lot of focus on the 0:20:19.400 --> 0:20:22.120 quality of speeches in recent weeks. People were very impressed 0:20:22.119 --> 0:20:24.320 by Mark Carney's speech in Devils. You were saying that 0:20:24.359 --> 0:20:26.639 you thought Rubio's speech was very good, A sort of 0:20:26.760 --> 0:20:29.600 blockbuster speech is not what you ever expect from a 0:20:29.680 --> 0:20:32.080