Speaker 1: Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve Camray.
Speaker 1: It's ready. Are you get in touch with technology? With
Speaker 1: text style from how stuff works dot com. Hello again, everyone,
Speaker 1: welcome to text stuff. My name is Chris Polette and
Speaker 1: I'm an editor here at how stuff works dot com.
Speaker 1: Sitting in crush from a senior writer, Jonathan Strickland, Mr Marks,
Speaker 1: by mandate of the District of Columbia pre Crime Division,
Speaker 1: I'm placing you under arrest for the future murder of
Speaker 1: Sarah Marks and Donald Dubin that was to take place
Speaker 1: today April two hours and four minutes. I think you'd
Speaker 1: probably understand where that one came from. Oh, I know
Speaker 1: exactly where that one. Okay, we've actually seen that one. Hey,
Speaker 1: what do you know? What do you know? Who would
Speaker 1: have Guessedabes and Toiland? So we're going to talk about it,
Speaker 1: not from that, although that would have been awesome. Deleted
Speaker 1: scene from Babes and Toiland. I don't remember a pre
Speaker 1: Crime Division um to day. We're going to do this
Speaker 1: is this is both a blessing and a curse for
Speaker 1: technology journalists everywhere. We're going to do our predictions episode
Speaker 1: for the Technology Stories of twenty eleven. I remember when
Speaker 1: we did that episode with Tom Merriden Veronica Belmont. Yeah,
Speaker 1: where we talked about talked about what they like about
Speaker 1: UM tech journalism and Tom's face when you actually y'all
Speaker 1: couldn't see that, but his the look on his face
Speaker 1: when we mentioned when Jonathan mentioned predictions and yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: it's one of those things that that we're expected to do.
Speaker 1: The worst thing is that we brought it on ourselves. Yeah.
Speaker 1: No one told us that we had to do a
Speaker 1: predictions episode, and then we did. And now we're kind
Speaker 1: of stuck because it's a tradition already. Well, it's fun,
Speaker 1: but it kind of stinks because it's so in tech.
Speaker 1: It's so easy to be wrong. Yes, as we have
Speaker 1: proven time and time again. So with that being said,
Speaker 1: Mr Pallette, will you please grace us with your first
Speaker 1: prediction for the Tech of twenty That was just lovely
Speaker 1: My favorite, my favorites of the ones that look like
Speaker 1: they're going to happen and then swerve and then may
Speaker 1: that may actually happen with this one. UM, you know
Speaker 1: how uh live Nets and Newton were both sort of
Speaker 1: working on calculus at the same time, UM, and of
Speaker 1: course everyone thinks of Newton when they think of calculus,
Speaker 1: or they think of stabbing their calculus teacher. Anyway, I
Speaker 1: came up with this one several weeks ago, and now
Speaker 1: everywhere on all the sites that have tech predictions, they've
Speaker 1: all predicted it too. But I thought of it on
Speaker 1: my own before I saw that the iPads getting a
Speaker 1: camera next year. Actually, and in the last few days, yeah,
Speaker 1: and in the last few days. Um so we don't
Speaker 1: We don't have to give me credit for that one,
Speaker 1: because other people have said it too, if you don't
Speaker 1: want to. But um, I've seen reports in the last
Speaker 1: few days, on the day we've recorded this in early
Speaker 1: ish December, that they're actually manufacturing the next version of
Speaker 1: the iPad, will have them ready to go as soon
Speaker 1: as February, so that may happen really quickly if they
Speaker 1: announced it before the end of twenty ten. Do I
Speaker 1: get credit for it anyway? Um so, yeah, I think.
Speaker 1: But I think it will have one camera forward facing,
Speaker 1: uh so that you can use face time with it.
Speaker 1: Um And I don't know what else is going to
Speaker 1: be in there, probably a faster processor. But I've been
Speaker 1: predicting for for a while now that the iPad will
Speaker 1: get a camera in it's next generation, and that's next year.
Speaker 1: So there I said it. The real question is will
Speaker 1: will there be a dedicated mute button that only mutes
Speaker 1: the system sounds and nothing else. I would really like
Speaker 1: that because I liked the the having the screen lock,
Speaker 1: and now that I don't have it anymore, I really
Speaker 1: miss it. Yeah, yeah, that was that's that's been a
Speaker 1: Molly Wood have seen it. She's been been screaming about thee.
Speaker 1: She does not like that at all the fact that
Speaker 1: that's that feature is gone. All right, So here's my
Speaker 1: and I'll still an Apple. Uh. Here's here's my big one.
Speaker 1: The iPhone will move to Verizon, but not till really. Yes,
Speaker 1: but the announcement that the iPhone will come to Verizon
Speaker 1: will happen sometime in but it won't actually make the
Speaker 1: move till That's funny. I was going to predict that
Speaker 1: it was going to head Verizon, uh, to coincide with
Speaker 1: its release of the four G network. I think that
Speaker 1: it will wait a little longer. First of all, I
Speaker 1: think it will wait because Apple does not adopt new
Speaker 1: technology in their devices right off the bat. If you
Speaker 1: remember it took they waited a generation before they added
Speaker 1: three G to the iPhone, despite the fact that there
Speaker 1: were three G networks. And part of that I think
Speaker 1: was because Jobs has this this belief that he wants
Speaker 1: his products to be absolutely the best they can be,
Speaker 1: and he doesn't want to just jump onto a new
Speaker 1: technology as soon as it's available. He'd rather wait and
Speaker 1: make sure that it's a proven one before adopting it.
Speaker 1: But another reason is because we've heard heard through various
Speaker 1: sources over the years that A T and T and
Speaker 1: Apple signed an exclusivity agreement that would last around five years.
Speaker 1: And that was back in two thousand seven and two
Speaker 1: thousand seven plus five dozen in equal eleven. Yes, but
Speaker 1: but it hasn't been said for sure, but it's been
Speaker 1: people that it's been hinted at by various sources. So
Speaker 1: I'm taking that at face value and suggesting that the again,
Speaker 1: it will come to Verizon, but we'll hear about it
Speaker 1: next year. Okay. Um. My next one actually relates to Google,
Speaker 1: and in the days actually right as we were recording this,
Speaker 1: Google's Chromos launched officially. Yes, uh, and I think and
Speaker 1: I think that it will underwhelm and it's acceptance in
Speaker 1: in in that a Google product will underwhelm is also
Speaker 1: a pretty safe that's true, I don't. I think. I
Speaker 1: think it's the form factor. I think if the Chromos
Speaker 1: was on a tablet, then it might. But that's a
Speaker 1: that's a later prediction. I'm coming back to that. But
Speaker 1: I think the netbook market right now is kind of
Speaker 1: sort of stagnant. I think Google is really taking the
Speaker 1: same sort of general approach that Apple is taking in
Speaker 1: a way, right because Apple has two main operating systems,
Speaker 1: mac os and iOS. The iOS is for their mobile devices,
Speaker 1: which is everything from their smartphones and iPod h line
Speaker 1: to the tap iPad the tablets, so but it doesn't
Speaker 1: include notebooks. Their notebooks are considered computers, not mobile. So uh.
Speaker 1: Even though people might say, well, a netbook is really
Speaker 1: a mobile device, Apple would disagree. First of all, they
Speaker 1: don't do netbooks. But even the Mac Air, which is
Speaker 1: probably you know, the lightest of their devices, although it's
Speaker 1: not not priced like a netbook, is um it runs
Speaker 1: the mac os, does run iOS well. Mark Zuckerberg agrees,
Speaker 1: of course, he doesn't think that the iPad is um
Speaker 1: uh well no Apple Apples. Apple essentially says the iPads
Speaker 1: mobile because it's running the iOS. Yes, but disagrees. I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: I misunderstood what you're saying. No, no, I'm saying. I'm
Speaker 1: saying Google. Google seems to be agreeing with that strategy
Speaker 1: because they're using Android for the smartphones and for the tablets.
Speaker 1: They're using Chromos for netbooks and and higher up on
Speaker 1: the computer chain. So Google seems to be following suit
Speaker 1: with Apple. They're they're saying, there is this delineation between
Speaker 1: the tablet world and everything below it, and netbooks and
Speaker 1: everything above it. So, um, but I do think that
Speaker 1: the Chromos I said that it's I don't think it's
Speaker 1: going to take off, but I do think what it's
Speaker 1: going to do is it's going to push cloud computing
Speaker 1: to that next level where we're going to see even
Speaker 1: more web based services and applications than we already do,
Speaker 1: and it's going to become even more of a commonplace,
Speaker 1: uh practice to use these web based applications, both in
Speaker 1: the home and in business. Yeah. I actually was going
Speaker 1: to make that a one of my my predictions. But
Speaker 1: I think the cloud, the cloud becoming the norm is
Speaker 1: already happening. Microsoft is trying to own that. That's your
Speaker 1: current ad campaign that's out right now in December. But pushing,
Speaker 1: pushing something and having people adopted or two different things. Well,
Speaker 1: because we've seen some technologies get pushed that people just said, uh,
Speaker 1: not doing it. Nope, sorry, no, you I know you
Speaker 1: want me to try this, but I'm not gonna Did
Speaker 1: you just hear waves crashing? Yeah? I'm sorry? Stick with Google? Yes?
Speaker 1: Do you have another one? Do you want me to
Speaker 1: go again? Well? You know I just did the what cloud?
Speaker 1: I can do one here, I can cloud base, but
Speaker 1: I'll do another one. Hang on, let's see blah blah
Speaker 1: blah blah blah. Okay, Yeah, we're going to see a
Speaker 1: dramatic increase in cyber war inn This is a this
Speaker 1: is a kind of a gimme, but we're going to
Speaker 1: see more D D O S attack. We're gonna be
Speaker 1: seeing a lot more attacks through information technology than ever before,
Speaker 1: and those attacks are not necessarily going to come from
Speaker 1: quote unquote official sources, like state sponsored sources. We're gonna
Speaker 1: see a lot of vigilante cyber warfare where we're gonna
Speaker 1: see some person who happens to have enough savvy to
Speaker 1: either design and tool or just use a tool, because
Speaker 1: there's some out there that you can just pick up
Speaker 1: and use and and and attack a target on behalf
Speaker 1: of some cause or another. So so you're thinking specifically
Speaker 1: of the example, the recent example of wiki leaks in
Speaker 1: which people who are outraged on one side or the
Speaker 1: other of the argument attacked people other sites that are
Speaker 1: involved with that is the Yeah, it's like it's like
Speaker 1: seeing these private armies being set against targets. They're not fighting.
Speaker 1: The private armies aren't fighting each other, not seeing like
Speaker 1: one botan net square off. Here's another crazy thing. So
Speaker 1: a lot of these d d o S attacks they
Speaker 1: involve boton nets, you know, zombie computers. Right, Well, there's
Speaker 1: nothing stopping the fact. In fact, there's it's quite possible
Speaker 1: that you could have a single victim computer that is
Speaker 1: part of two botton nets and attacking both sides of
Speaker 1: the same issue. So you could have one computer that's
Speaker 1: sending out attacks on both sets of targets. So it's
Speaker 1: like it's like having an army full of mercenaries and
Speaker 1: they're and they're just told, okay, just shoot everywhere. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So that's my next one. That's that's not not a
Speaker 1: happy prediction. I hope it's. I hope it's not one
Speaker 1: that necessarily comes to light, but I it's hard for
Speaker 1: me to imagine it otherwise. UM, let's see UM. To
Speaker 1: go with our earlier discussion, I'm going to say that
Speaker 1: is the year of the tablet. Some people might say
Speaker 1: that it was, but I think I don't think it's
Speaker 1: the iPad. I mean, the iPad sort of got the
Speaker 1: ball ruling, but I think when the the Android os
Speaker 1: that really support tablet computing is launched, I think that's
Speaker 1: when it's really gonna hit because then people who don't
Speaker 1: like the iPad for whatever reason, uh, We'll pick up
Speaker 1: an Android tablet and find out that they like it
Speaker 1: for different things. And I think it's possible that the
Speaker 1: iPad may come with new functionality in the next iteration
Speaker 1: to to let you do more things with it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think I think it's a fair assessment. Was not
Speaker 1: the year of the tablet. It was the year the iPad. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, the iPad was. It was the iPad and
Speaker 1: then a bunch of also rans. I mean, even the
Speaker 1: Samsung Galaxy Tab, which I think was probably at least
Speaker 1: the best publicized UM opponent to the iPad. UM I
Speaker 1: don't think that you could really call it a true
Speaker 1: contender yet, I think we're going to see that mature
Speaker 1: in So I agree with that that prediction, and I
Speaker 1: think it's simply that well. I mean Google has even said,
Speaker 1: you know, the the current version of Android is not
Speaker 1: meant to be run on a tablet. It's meant to
Speaker 1: you run on a smartphone. So I think once that
Speaker 1: happens and it's got a dedicated tablet os, I think
Speaker 1: it's really gonna to change things. And I think lots
Speaker 1: more people will come out with tablets. Um And and
Speaker 1: as a my next prediction is related to that that
Speaker 1: laptop sales are going to start declining as a result
Speaker 1: of of that. And I mean it's already happened, but
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna when when that happens, when the
Speaker 1: which one is a gingerbread, Yeah, yeah, that's supposed to
Speaker 1: be the Honeycomb. Honeycomb that are really tablet friendly. Um,
Speaker 1: I think that's that's you're going to see an actual
Speaker 1: hit in laptop sales. Yeah. I had a I had
Speaker 1: a similar prediction. Mine was that the laptop sales would
Speaker 1: dip slightly, but they wouldn't really be cannibalized totally because
Speaker 1: I think I think people are just going to realize
Speaker 1: the same thing that that you realized, which is that
Speaker 1: the tablets don't really replace stuff that you have. It
Speaker 1: is supplemental. So I think there's still going to be
Speaker 1: a need for things like laptops and computers that have
Speaker 1: more capacity and more capability than your and and just
Speaker 1: an easier form factor for certain tasks than tablets are
Speaker 1: able to give you. No, that doesn't mean that tablets
Speaker 1: are are bad. It just means that for certain tasks,
Speaker 1: netbooks are computers are better. Yeah, And I think that
Speaker 1: could be said for for the desktop. Two. It can
Speaker 1: really be said for any form factor, right, Like, there
Speaker 1: are certain tasks that just work better on certain platforms.
Speaker 1: And that's not a that's not a knock to the
Speaker 1: other platforms. It's just that, you know, it's the way
Speaker 1: it's really the way humans work more than the way
Speaker 1: the technology works. So yeah, I agree with that. Um
Speaker 1: let's see, Oh, I have one here we go. eBay
Speaker 1: will sell Skype okay, because really I don't know that
Speaker 1: they know what to do with it, and I but
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, I think Skype is going to get
Speaker 1: a new buyer. Then I don't know that it will
Speaker 1: go in an eBay auction. That would be funny though,
Speaker 1: what about what about my Space? Oh that's a good question. Well,
Speaker 1: you know what this is. This is the make or
Speaker 1: break year for it. Yeah, so I think I think
Speaker 1: Fox sell the mind this is a on off the cuff,
Speaker 1: just thought of it prediction. I think Fox will sell it.
Speaker 1: I think I think that's a distinct possibility if my
Speaker 1: Space doesn't get a real influx of users by I'd
Speaker 1: say the by the end of the second quarter. I
Speaker 1: could easily see Fox saying, you know what, we're just
Speaker 1: gonna We're gonna offload this. Yeah, because I mean they
Speaker 1: they've they've made no secret of the fact that this
Speaker 1: is a make or break situation for my Space. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Well that was a good one. Do you have another prediction,
Speaker 1: an official one? Or you did too it once? Should
Speaker 1: I do another one? Sure? We kind of actually started
Speaker 1: doing that a minute ago, and then yeah, we did
Speaker 1: kind of jump around. Okay, so will be the the
Speaker 1: true battle the test of the four geo? Okay, that
Speaker 1: actually goes with one of mine. So we're we're really
Speaker 1: looking at and it's you can argue whether or not
Speaker 1: these things belong in four G or not. It's I'm
Speaker 1: I'm using at the way the general public uses it.
Speaker 1: But really what we're getting down to is y MAX
Speaker 1: versus l T E, and which which of the two
Speaker 1: standards or which of the two technologies is going to
Speaker 1: really become the next UH foundation for wireless data transmission
Speaker 1: UM I I happen to think that will be l
Speaker 1: T E. Yeah, and i happen to be a y
Speaker 1: max customer, So I'm not happy about this prediction. And
Speaker 1: I could be wrong. Could this could be one of
Speaker 1: those things that just like there is no clear winner, right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: because G S M and C D M A do
Speaker 1: we still have both of those? That's true. Actually we
Speaker 1: uh we've already got the nation's first UH for G
Speaker 1: official for G network, and that's Metro PCs is UM.
Speaker 1: Of course, T Mobile rolled out a next gen three
Speaker 1: G what they're calling it. They're calling it four G,
Speaker 1: but it's not four G technology four G speeds, yes, yes,
Speaker 1: they they're calling it for G, but it's it's an
Speaker 1: updated three G and and it actually is faster than
Speaker 1: four G technology at its current generation is confusing. And
Speaker 1: that's and and that's why I see there's so much
Speaker 1: murkiness in there that they can do that. But yeah,
Speaker 1: I think I think really this will come down to
Speaker 1: y Max versus LTE, the really big fight, and we'll
Speaker 1: see maybe maybe there won't be a clear winner, but
Speaker 1: I think there will be someone well in the lead.
Speaker 1: By the end of the year. Verizons on the cusp
Speaker 1: of launching its own for G network and I my
Speaker 1: my prediction, my next prediction, it's related, is that A
Speaker 1: T and T will go ahead and start rolling out
Speaker 1: at SWARD network by the end of next year. It
Speaker 1: may not be in in great capacity, and I've seen
Speaker 1: different numbers. I've seen twelve, I think both when we
Speaker 1: we research it. But um, that was some time ago now,
Speaker 1: and I think there now that everyone else is starting
Speaker 1: to really get on the on the ball, I think
Speaker 1: E T and T will to eighteen. Never mind, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm just ignoring that. Uh should I go again? Okay, UM,
Speaker 1: let's see, let me look at I'm looking through my list.
Speaker 1: I've got a bunch of these written down. I'm just
Speaker 1: trying to find feel free to uh to drop a
Speaker 1: couple in there. A new version of the we really
Speaker 1: will be announced at E three or sometime during the year. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I was thinking about gaming stuff and I couldn't really
Speaker 1: see anybody being ready to do that. Do you think
Speaker 1: it's going to be high deaf? Yeah, I think it's
Speaker 1: just gonna be the we high definition. I don't think
Speaker 1: it's gonna be significantly different. Otherwise, I think it's just
Speaker 1: going to be the high definition version of the week.
Speaker 1: I think that's as close as we are to a
Speaker 1: new console system. I don't I still don't see PS
Speaker 1: three or I don't see the PS four getting announced
Speaker 1: or the next X Plus getting announced. In I said this,
Speaker 1: I'm saying it again for I just don't see it
Speaker 1: because they've just launched these peripherals, which the same reason
Speaker 1: I gave last year with the Move and the connect.
Speaker 1: It just doesn't make sense to abandon that. Although if
Speaker 1: both companies pursued it the way play Station Sony did
Speaker 1: with the PlayStation three in PlayStation two, it could I
Speaker 1: could then see maybe a new device coming out if
Speaker 1: they if if the company said they would continue to
Speaker 1: support the current generation, because I mean Xbox Microsoft did
Speaker 1: not do that. Once they went Xbox three sixty, that
Speaker 1: was the end of the Xbox really more or less,
Speaker 1: whereas Sony was No, we'll keep making games for the
Speaker 1: PlayStation two. You know, it's a really popular platform. So okay,
Speaker 1: you want me to do another one, or you want
Speaker 1: or you I've got a pair together, hit me with
Speaker 1: your best shot. Okay. I think Spotify is actually going
Speaker 1: to show up on the United in the United States, Well,
Speaker 1: I don't think that at all, but all right, cool,
Speaker 1: that's one that we can There will definitely be a
Speaker 1: winner at the end of the year. Yes, I'm sorry.
Speaker 1: So you think Spotify is going to resolve the issues
Speaker 1: that are currently preventing it from coming over to the US. Yes,
Speaker 1: And by issues, I mean they're going to lots of
Speaker 1: legal ramifications, make all these agreements licensing agreements with the
Speaker 1: various music companies in order to be able to stream
Speaker 1: the music here in the US. Yes, but it may
Speaker 1: not necessarily matter. They've they've already got great competition in
Speaker 1: the United States from UH companies like rdio and some
Speaker 1: of the others. That's so much stuff already, all the
Speaker 1: streaming music products like last FM and Pandora and groove
Speaker 1: Shark and all that kind of stuff. But I have
Speaker 1: to say, I think there will be another new competitor,
Speaker 1: and again this is one that is probably clued in
Speaker 1: more than anything else. But I think the new streaming
Speaker 1: Apple Store will be online. Okay, so this prediction of yours,
Speaker 1: so you're gonna stick with it, I'm sticking with it. Well,
Speaker 1: there's we know that they're building a data center in
Speaker 1: North Carolina. Yes, um, I don't. I think that's just
Speaker 1: so that they can do a tar Heels app. That's okay,
Speaker 1: I you know, And I was thinking about this on
Speaker 1: the way of the office because I was doing this
Speaker 1: on the way in, and I thought, well, I think
Speaker 1: that's a safe bet. Now, I was wondering if I'll
Speaker 1: ask you this. I'm not predicting this, but I'll ask you,
Speaker 1: do you think there might be a streaming video component
Speaker 1: to this too? We think they'll they'll jump in the
Speaker 1: fray with Netflix and some of the others. It's I mean,
Speaker 1: the if they've got all that, they've they've pushed Apple
Speaker 1: TV pretty hard, but Google, but it's still hard to
Speaker 1: it's still hard to. Um, I don't know, it's still
Speaker 1: hard to find Apple TV a truly compelling product when
Speaker 1: there are other competing products on the market that have
Speaker 1: a little more versatility. It all depends on how dependent
Speaker 1: you are on iTunes. Right. If you're a heavy iTunes user,
Speaker 1: then the Apple TV is a great product. If you
Speaker 1: just casually use iTunes, but you rely heavily on others services,
Speaker 1: then you may want to look at some other solution
Speaker 1: to that. Um, all right, well, okay, so you say
Speaker 1: Spotify is definitely coming, I say Spotify not. You say
Speaker 1: that Apple will launch its streaming music service. Uh? Do
Speaker 1: I want to come down on that one one way
Speaker 1: or the other? Um? What the heck? I'll stick stick
Speaker 1: my neck out on this one too, and this way
Speaker 1: we'll we'll definitely have a winner and a loser. I
Speaker 1: will say that they will not come out with a
Speaker 1: streaming music service in although, although if September rolls around
Speaker 1: and they don't, uh, then we know, right, Like, if
Speaker 1: September comes and goes and there's no announcement about a
Speaker 1: streaming music service, then I think that's pretty much the
Speaker 1: nail in the coffin. Yeah, you know what I now
Speaker 1: that I think about it, I think this is why
Speaker 1: tech people do predictions. It is because this time of
Speaker 1: ye're so slow in tech, right, right, once you get
Speaker 1: once you get past Black Friday. Then it's it's slow
Speaker 1: until you hit c e S or or if you
Speaker 1: do have tech news, you're under embargo and you can't
Speaker 1: talk about until January. So, um, so that's good. What
Speaker 1: do you think? What are you going to see at
Speaker 1: c S? What are your predictions? Cheese? I figured you
Speaker 1: had something, Well, I assume you know it'll be a
Speaker 1: lot of It'll be a lot to three D technology. Again,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be huge. It's gonna be even beyond last year.
Speaker 1: And last year was big. I mean that's when we
Speaker 1: started seeing the second tier television companies producing three D TVs.
Speaker 1: Will also see that for displays, We'll see it for
Speaker 1: gaming devices. It's just gonna be one of those things
Speaker 1: where I think more companies are going to get on
Speaker 1: board with that technology to try and push it, which, uh,
Speaker 1: that would surprise me if I don't see that. Um.
Speaker 1: Apart from that, let's see, Uh, there's gonna be I
Speaker 1: think I think we'll price see again more technology that
Speaker 1: involves uh like why gig technology where we see devices
Speaker 1: streaming UM data to one another without wires. So we're
Speaker 1: talking about I made this prediction in twenty ten that
Speaker 1: we would see this in the market, and we never
Speaker 1: really did. But this would be things like your DVD
Speaker 1: player or Blu ray player being able to connect wirelessly
Speaker 1: to your TV so you don't have to have a cable.
Speaker 1: You can actually keep everything out of sight and uh,
Speaker 1: you know with a with a UM radio frequency remote control,
Speaker 1: you wouldn't even need a line of sight with your
Speaker 1: remote to change stuff. Kind of awesome. So I think
Speaker 1: that will be there. Um it's it's the green technology
Speaker 1: will still be big. Although one of my predictions actually,
Speaker 1: I think the green technology bubble bursts in Yeah. I
Speaker 1: think what's gonna happen is we're going to see investments
Speaker 1: in green technology companies, especially the ones that have the
Speaker 1: flashier green tech. I think we're gonna see that kind
Speaker 1: of drop out a little bit. Inn It's not gonna
Speaker 1: mean that green technology is going away. It's not gonna
Speaker 1: mean that people are no longer concerned about the environment.
Speaker 1: I think it means that we refocus our our perspective
Speaker 1: on green technology and we look at very specific applications
Speaker 1: like increasing energy efficiency. I think that will become the
Speaker 1: big thing in green tech in twenty eleven is increase
Speaker 1: efficiency with existing technology or improved versions of existing technology
Speaker 1: as opposed to look at this new device that will
Speaker 1: convert your foot you know, foot traffic into electricity. I
Speaker 1: don't think that's going to be as big as here's
Speaker 1: a battery that will last longer, or you know, here
Speaker 1: are solar panels that will have a greater efficiency in
Speaker 1: converting solar energy into electricity. That's where I think it's
Speaker 1: gonna be. Yeah, and this one, Um, I have a
Speaker 1: related prediction, but I'm not sure if we're going to
Speaker 1: be able to if it's going to be noticeable enough
Speaker 1: for us to make a call on it without doing
Speaker 1: some heavy research. Um, so you know we can count.
Speaker 1: This is not a prediction if you want, but I
Speaker 1: think there will be more investment R and d uh
Speaker 1: into alternatives to using rare earth metals. That makes sense
Speaker 1: because I've already seen that people are thinking about other
Speaker 1: kinds of metals that can use and a lot of
Speaker 1: that's used in green tech. There's a lot of rare
Speaker 1: stuff in uh wind power. Um, what was it nearly
Speaker 1: a ton in every turbine something like that like that,
Speaker 1: it would Yeah, if you guys listen to our Rare
Speaker 1: Earth Metals podcast, then you remember that the real problem
Speaker 1: here is that most almost all of the rare earth
Speaker 1: metals come out of China, and so if China has
Speaker 1: a project, for example, building lots and lots and lots
Speaker 1: of wind turbines, which they plan to do, that could
Speaker 1: mean that they are going to have to keep all
Speaker 1: those rare earth metals for their own project, which means
Speaker 1: our supply gets cut off. So the alternatives are you
Speaker 1: either find a different way of of achieving your goals
Speaker 1: and using stuff other than rare earth metals, or you
Speaker 1: start opening up rare earth metal minds in other locations.
Speaker 1: But as people have found out, that ain't cheap, at
Speaker 1: least not as cheap as it's done in China. Right,
Speaker 1: So that's a good one. How about here, here's one
Speaker 1: that's very specific. Light Peak debuts in Yeah, and and
Speaker 1: then we start to really see it's kind of similar
Speaker 1: to the battle but between lt E and y Max.
Speaker 1: We see the battle between light Peak and USB three
Speaker 1: point oh and uh. And some would say that Intel
Speaker 1: has dragged its feet in incorporating USB technology into its
Speaker 1: chip sets, specifically in order to give light Peak a
Speaker 1: an advantage. I don't you know. Granted, that's an allegation.
Speaker 1: I don't have really an opinion on that one way
Speaker 1: or the other. But um, I will say that I'm
Speaker 1: looking into the light peak technology. Uh, this is again
Speaker 1: another data transmission technology where you're you're transferring data from
Speaker 1: one device to another. Um, it's it. It's amazingly fast.
Speaker 1: I mean it's it's so fast that it's hard for
Speaker 1: me to wrap my mind around it because you're thinking
Speaker 1: about like moving the equivalent of a full Blu ray
Speaker 1: disk to another device in just a few seconds. And uh,
Speaker 1: I mean that's amazing to me. But I think we're
Speaker 1: going to see that really take off. May not be
Speaker 1: in any consumer to prices, but I think we're gonna
Speaker 1: finally get out of It'll it'll get out of the
Speaker 1: lab all right. Then in fact that I would love
Speaker 1: to see that at CES. Yeah, if I saw if
Speaker 1: they had at the Intel booth, if they had a
Speaker 1: section devoted to light peak technology and showed to working
Speaker 1: light peak system, I'd be like, well, I'll just be
Speaker 1: here for the rest of the day, all right. You
Speaker 1: know that that that was where all my flashy or
Speaker 1: are the flashiest of my predictions. Um, And I'm not
Speaker 1: sure the last one is that flashy, because the the
Speaker 1: only one that I have left on my list that
Speaker 1: I made was the uh that HDTV prices are just
Speaker 1: gonna stagnate. I think they're getting to the point where
Speaker 1: they're about as low as you're gonna get. I think
Speaker 1: they'll be they'll trickle downwards a little bit still. But um,
Speaker 1: the drops that that we saw over the last couple
Speaker 1: of years where they went from hundred to eleven hundred
Speaker 1: to six hundred, I think those big jumps are gone.
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna be more expensive than your average TV.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think some of the Black Friday deals
Speaker 1: we saw where we saw forty two in h D
Speaker 1: t V is going for around four dollars, I think
Speaker 1: that's pretty much the the bottom bottom of the barrel
Speaker 1: as far as price drops go, and that that was
Speaker 1: a special circumstance, right because that's that's doing it for
Speaker 1: a specific sales date. Um, I don't see that. I agree. Well,
Speaker 1: here's here's one that's not terribly flashy either. I think
Speaker 1: in we will see a dramatic shift really both from
Speaker 1: consumer side and from UH enterprise side, a decrease in
Speaker 1: the reliance upon discs. We're gonna look at more digital
Speaker 1: delivery for things like applications. And I mean this is
Speaker 1: a gimme two. Because we've got the chromos and the
Speaker 1: Chrome Store. We also have the Mac Store that's opening
Speaker 1: up in tylen where you will be able to get
Speaker 1: applications for your Mac online. You won't it won't go
Speaker 1: involved going out and getting a skin, putting that in
Speaker 1: your computer and installing it. You'll get it all uh
Speaker 1: over the internet. Um. I think we're gonna see a
Speaker 1: lot of that, and we're gonna see similar services pop
Speaker 1: up that support this, So not just places where you
Speaker 1: can purchase games like through Steam for example, but where
Speaker 1: you can play them like on on live systems. So
Speaker 1: um yeah, I think we're getting to the point where
Speaker 1: all that clutter, all those those boxes that we used
Speaker 1: to have that housed all of our our disks or
Speaker 1: even just the discs themselves, that's gonna become a thing
Speaker 1: of the past. And then especially if you marry that
Speaker 1: with cloud computing, then you can have an account right
Speaker 1: with a particular vendor, and that way, let's say that
Speaker 1: you're you're hard drive crashes or you lose all your
Speaker 1: data because you have this this account with the vendor.
Speaker 1: As long as you can verify what happened, happen or whatever,
Speaker 1: you could get another copy of it without having to
Speaker 1: go out and buy another one. So you have to
Speaker 1: have those safety nets in place, I think for people
Speaker 1: to really adopt this model. M M. Trying to think
Speaker 1: of something else. Do you have any uh any others? Yeah?
Speaker 1: I got a couple of others. Here's some. I think
Speaker 1: we'll see the PlayStation phone, which has been room. I've
Speaker 1: seen videos of a device that's supposedly the PlayStation phone.
Speaker 1: It has a swing out keyboard, very much like the
Speaker 1: htc uh G one and G two phones did um,
Speaker 1: but in this case, instead of it being a keyboard
Speaker 1: a quirty keyboard, it's um it's a control pad and
Speaker 1: and buttons. So we'll priacely see something along those lines
Speaker 1: debut in twenty eleven, so that that would be interesting.
Speaker 1: I think we're gonna see color e inc E readers
Speaker 1: start to take off in Yeah, yeah, no, they've they've
Speaker 1: already announced Color e ink. It does exist, right, so
Speaker 1: so you think it will actually become It would shock
Speaker 1: me if I don't see some of that. It's e
Speaker 1: S two that would that would also be something I
Speaker 1: would expect to see. I think it may finally become
Speaker 1: time inn you might finally start to catch up with
Speaker 1: Japan and incorporate near fields communication systems into devices like
Speaker 1: cell phones, smartphones, things like that, so that we can
Speaker 1: purchase items without the use of a credit or debit card. Interesting,
Speaker 1: But um, I don't think it's gonna necessarily be widespread.
Speaker 1: I mean, there are a few places in the United
Speaker 1: States where where companies have incorporated this, but there are
Speaker 1: very few and far between. I think we're gonna start
Speaker 1: to see that change in I don't think it's gonna
Speaker 1: be sudden. I don't think it's gonna be overnight. And
Speaker 1: by the end of twenty eleven, it may be just
Speaker 1: a tiny percentage of all companies incorporating this. But I
Speaker 1: think we're gonna start to finally see that shift. Okay,
Speaker 1: then all right, So do you think we're finally going
Speaker 1: to see Duke for real? Who? That's right? Twenty eleven,
Speaker 1: we're supposed to Newcomb forever. Okay. I can't decide how
Speaker 1: I feel about it. I'm gonna I'm gonna take them
Speaker 1: for their word. I'm gonna say that I'll be squashing
Speaker 1: alien heads underneath my big burly boot by the middle. Okay,
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I think they're they're really going
Speaker 1: to do it. All right, I've got a question for you.
Speaker 1: This is a follow up from last year's predictions. Do
Speaker 1: you think I'm still going to have the same computer
Speaker 1: by this time next year? I'm pretty sure it will
Speaker 1: be completely unusable from to I T S years. I
Speaker 1: think they're doing it, never mind, just I think they
Speaker 1: have a candid camera at your desk and or just
Speaker 1: watching you. They've already been interfered with our podcast before.
Speaker 1: There is a history where they went in and put
Speaker 1: in an effect, so I know that they at least listen.
Speaker 1: Is he please come on? I'm begging you please. How
Speaker 1: many keys do I need to lose before this thing
Speaker 1: becomes impossible to run? All right? Well, you know, I
Speaker 1: just don't. I think it's going to be a pretty
Speaker 1: laid back yere And I was trying to think in
Speaker 1: our podcast on the predictions from last year. I started
Speaker 1: trying to think of some you know, crazy outrageou stuff.
Speaker 1: That stuff is there so hard to predict. Yeah, you
Speaker 1: never mean like Steve Jobs stepping down, or that the
Speaker 1: driverless Google car. I mean that was so out of
Speaker 1: nowhere we wouldn't be able to, like, I mean, are
Speaker 1: you going to predict that Apple is going to come
Speaker 1: out with a driverless airplane? I mean, it's just that's
Speaker 1: like we could just spelled off crazy things, but you know,
Speaker 1: there's there's no basis for that. There's gonna be there
Speaker 1: are gonna be a lot of stories like that that
Speaker 1: that we obviously had no bearing on. At the end
Speaker 1: of I'm sure we'll do a show where we talk
Speaker 1: about the big stories that we did not predict at all,
Speaker 1: and they'll probably be major things, and we might even
Speaker 1: be able to say, hey, you know, if we had
Speaker 1: really looked really deep into the tech news that was
Speaker 1: around at the end of we could have predicted this,
Speaker 1: but we won't because we're done. We're over, this is finished.
Speaker 1: This is the end of this episode. That text us
Speaker 1: not done just this episode. So I predict will have
Speaker 1: an awesome mirror of Tech Stuff podcast and hopefully that
Speaker 1: will come true. If you guys have any cool predictions
Speaker 1: or you want to take issue with something that Chris
Speaker 1: or I said, you can do so on Facebook or Twitter.
Speaker 1: Are handle There is tech Stuff hs W at both
Speaker 1: Facebook and Twitter. Or you can email us that at
Speaker 1: us is tech stuff at how stuff works dot com.
Speaker 1: Chris and I will talk to you again really soon.
Speaker 1: For moral nous and thousands of other topics. Visit how
Speaker 1: stuff works dot com. To learn more about the podcast,
Speaker 1: click on the podcast icon in the upper right corner
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