1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,559 Speaker 1: Hello, it's even from daybreak Europe. I wanted to share 2 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:05,080 Speaker 1: the latest episode of the other podcast that I host. 3 00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: Here's Why. We look at a single story every week 4 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 1: and give you the context and analysis from our global 5 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:13,720 Speaker 1: network of reporters and analysts. This week, we've been examining 6 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:16,600 Speaker 1: the supply of weapons in the Iran war and how 7 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:19,680 Speaker 1: that might affect what happens next. If you like the episode, 8 00:00:19,720 --> 00:00:22,080 Speaker 1: you can subscribe to us wherever you get your podcasts. 9 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:23,599 Speaker 1: Here is Here's Why. 10 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 11 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:42,560 Speaker 1: Since the start of the war, the US and Israel 12 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 1: have been attacking sites across Iran. In response to Ihran 13 00:00:46,000 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 1: has fired hundreds of missiles and drones at targets around 14 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:51,600 Speaker 1: the Middle East, from its neighbors in the Gulf, but 15 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 1: also reaching as far as Cyprus and Turkey. As the 16 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: shock of the opening days of the conflict gives way 17 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:01,280 Speaker 1: to a more sustained campaign, some key questions are emerging, 18 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:04,760 Speaker 1: like who could run out of weapons first, and when. 19 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 3: There's really a race on to figure out who expends 20 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 3: their ammunitions first and fastest. I don't believe that the 21 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:13,200 Speaker 3: US entered this fight going okay, we only have enough 22 00:01:13,240 --> 00:01:15,679 Speaker 3: missiles for one week, two weeks, three weeks, or even 23 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:16,200 Speaker 3: four weeks. 24 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 1: I think it's really about the tempo of taking out 25 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 1: the Iranian capacities for dromes and ballistic missiles. 26 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 3: But if you look at the basic math before the war, 27 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 3: I certainly favored Iran and just share numbers. The question 28 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 3: becomes how effective is it being at degrading those capabilities. 29 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 1: Here's why the around war could hinge on missile math. 30 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:43,039 Speaker 1: Becha Wasser leads our defense research at Bloomberg Economics and 31 00:01:43,080 --> 00:01:46,039 Speaker 1: she joins US now for more. Becca, First of all, 32 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 1: what do we know about Iran's stockpile of missiles and 33 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 1: how many they may have left? 34 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 3: So nobody knows exactly how many they have left right now. 35 00:01:54,240 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 3: But I think the most important thing is it's not 36 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 3: just about the missile numbers. It's about whether they can 37 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 3: add actually use those missiles. And the United States has 38 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:08,480 Speaker 3: really focused on degrading Iran's missile program, going after the 39 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 3: missile launchers and making it so those missiles that Iran 40 00:02:12,560 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 3: does still have they can't fire them. But that being said, 41 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 3: prior to the Twelve Day War, Iran had approximately two 42 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:24,880 Speaker 3: thousand to three thousand ballistic missiles and it fired at 43 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 3: least five hundred of those. It spent some time reconstituting 44 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:33,080 Speaker 3: prior to this current conflict, so they probably have a 45 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 3: sizeable amount. And it's worth noting that they've got missiles 46 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 3: of different ranges, short range missiles that they've used to 47 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 3: strike the Gulf States, medium range missiles that they've used 48 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:47,400 Speaker 3: in places like Jordan and Israel, as well as some 49 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 3: long range missiles that we haven't really seen play such 50 00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 3: a large role in this fight. They also have a 51 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:56,679 Speaker 3: number of drones and cruise missiles, and those also come 52 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 3: into play. 53 00:02:57,800 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 1: Well, let's talk a little bit more about the drone 54 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 1: which are of course cheaper and faster to produce. What 55 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 1: do we know about the capacity that Iran has in 56 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: that area. 57 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:10,840 Speaker 3: So Iran as by my account, fired over three thousand 58 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 3: drones at the Gulf States alone at this juncture in 59 00:03:14,200 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 3: time in the conflict. As you said, they're cheap, they're 60 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 3: roughly you know, twenty to fifty thousand dollars. They've used 61 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 3: them to great effect to create a number of economic 62 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 3: costs as well as psychological costs on the Golf States 63 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:32,399 Speaker 3: and the global economy. They've managed to fire these at 64 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 3: a pretty consistent rate, and part of that is because 65 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 3: they can't rely on their missiles as much, so they've 66 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 3: tried to make up for that with their use of drones. 67 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 3: We imagine that right now there is still some drone capacity, 68 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 3: drone production capacity that Iran still has, but a lot 69 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 3: of the US and Israeli strikes have also tried to 70 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 3: go after some of the drone storage locations and production facilities, 71 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 3: really going after the heart of their drone and missile 72 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:05,000 Speaker 3: programs and making it so that they can't replenish and 73 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 3: they can't reconstitute either during the conflict or into the future. 74 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 1: So that speaks to I suppose the possibility of them 75 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: being able to replenish those stocks too. What about the 76 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 1: pace of attacks that we've seen, though there's been some 77 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:21,239 Speaker 1: change in cadence as we've moved into the second week 78 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:24,479 Speaker 1: of this war, what does that tell us about the 79 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 1: strategy that Iran appears to be adopting. 80 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 3: So, by my calculations, Iran's missile and drone attacks are 81 00:04:32,040 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 3: down approximately eighty three percent from the start of the conflict, 82 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:39,480 Speaker 3: and there's a few different reasons for this. The first 83 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 3: is those initial salvos were quite large. They were intended 84 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:47,240 Speaker 3: to overwhelm. They were intended to overwhelm air defenses, to 85 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:49,760 Speaker 3: extract costs, and to try and make it so that 86 00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:53,840 Speaker 3: the Gulf States in particular didn't become partied to the fight. 87 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:58,919 Speaker 3: Since then, we've seen continued use of those drone attacks, 88 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 3: and part of them is because of the attrition that 89 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:06,480 Speaker 3: Iran has taken to some of its missile launchers and 90 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 3: trying to continue to use what it can. But even 91 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:13,159 Speaker 3: though drones don't require dedicated launchers, you still have to 92 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 3: move them out into the open. You need to position 93 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 3: them and be able to get them off the ground, 94 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:21,920 Speaker 3: and that means that they are viable targets for both 95 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:26,159 Speaker 3: US and Israel to strike. So that has also degraded 96 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 3: some of the tempo that we've seen in those attacks. Really, 97 00:05:30,400 --> 00:05:32,400 Speaker 3: what I think we're seeing right now is a shift 98 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,719 Speaker 3: to what I would term an attritional approach from Iran, 99 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,680 Speaker 3: where they're in it for the long haul and they're 100 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:43,280 Speaker 3: trying to impose costs slowly over time, and all they 101 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:45,200 Speaker 3: need to do is just keep up the pace of 102 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 3: attacks and make it so that there are attacks every 103 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:53,920 Speaker 3: single day rather than have intense attacks every single day. 104 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 3: We've also seen them have a shift in targeting, where 105 00:05:56,560 --> 00:06:00,480 Speaker 3: they're targeting has seemingly gotten better Rather than these large 106 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 3: salvos of both drones and missiles, we see drones being 107 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 3: able to cause some damage to critical infrastructure, including oil infrastructure, 108 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:14,279 Speaker 3: AI data centers, population centers, as well as really critical 109 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 3: military hardware like radars needed for air defense. So we're 110 00:06:18,640 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 3: seeing the start of a cost and position strategy. That 111 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 3: means that Iran's probably also trying to preserve some capabilities 112 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:27,320 Speaker 3: in case of a long war. 113 00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 1: What about the weapons that the US and it's partners 114 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:33,279 Speaker 1: are using to defend against Iran's attacks, and of course 115 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 1: the continuing strikes on the US and Israeli sides as well, 116 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: stretched to those stockpiles and how quickly could they be replaced? 117 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:45,719 Speaker 3: So I think it's worth making a difference between air 118 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:49,479 Speaker 3: defense interceptors and some of the offensive missiles that the 119 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 3: US and Israel are using. The offensive missiles, while yes, 120 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:56,400 Speaker 3: there are limited stockpiles for some of those higher end 121 00:06:56,680 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 3: long range capabilities, they do exist in greater members and 122 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 3: I think that it's very likely that the United States 123 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:08,480 Speaker 3: and Israel could sustain the conflict over time without having 124 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 3: to dip too far into their stockpiles. Although there may 125 00:07:13,280 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 3: be some pulling of missiles and munitions from one theater, 126 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:20,600 Speaker 3: say Europe or the Indo Pacific, to the Middle East. 127 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:23,960 Speaker 3: Air defense interceptors are a little bit harder because they're 128 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,560 Speaker 3: so in demand. There's never enough air defense to go around, 129 00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 3: and there's air defense for the US, and then there's 130 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:33,800 Speaker 3: also the air defense interceptors that it sells to the 131 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:38,120 Speaker 3: Gulf States and other regional allies. So when you have that, 132 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:41,160 Speaker 3: there is this stress and strain on the US defense 133 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 3: industrial base to produce more, and they're trying to quickly 134 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:48,320 Speaker 3: ramp up production. There's a new push to quadruple production 135 00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 3: of really critical interceptors, but that's not going to happen 136 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 3: until twenty thirty and you're moving from producing say ninety 137 00:07:56,480 --> 00:08:00,280 Speaker 3: six bad interceptors per year to close to four hundhre 138 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 3: in the twenty thirties, so replenishment is not going to 139 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:04,559 Speaker 3: be quick. 140 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 1: All of that being said, if the fighting then continues 141 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: at this intensity, what is likely to become the most 142 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 1: limiting factor? 143 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 3: First, I think the most limiting factor is not the 144 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 3: one that you can count. It's not missiles and munitions 145 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 3: it's not going to be things like force readiness. It's 146 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 3: going to actually be political will. The ability to wage war, 147 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 3: and frankly, the ability to terminate war is so based 148 00:08:32,320 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 3: on political will, and it's going to require leaders who 149 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 3: are able to do that, and that is something that 150 00:08:38,559 --> 00:08:41,360 Speaker 3: we can't quite quantify, and I think we're already starting 151 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:44,720 Speaker 3: to see shifts in that direction. We're starting to see 152 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:47,560 Speaker 3: President Donald Trump say that the war is going to 153 00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:50,040 Speaker 3: end soon and he can end it whenever he wants. 154 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 3: At the same time that he's saying the US can 155 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:55,679 Speaker 3: sustain this conflict for as long as it takes. So, 156 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:58,000 Speaker 3: when it comes down to it, what we should be 157 00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 3: looking at, it's not just the math, it's also the 158 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 3: political part. 159 00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:05,439 Speaker 1: Okay, Becca Wasser, leading our defense research at Bloomberg Economics. 160 00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 1: Thank you For more explanations like this from our team 161 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:11,680 Speaker 1: of three thousand journalists and analysts around the world, go 162 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:16,480 Speaker 1: to Bloomberg dot com slash explainers. I'm Stephen Carroll. This 163 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 1: is here's why. I'll be back next week with more. 164 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.