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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: J us proud red hellough they're running a game so smooth,

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Speaker 2: so sweet, d sisting just glorious textrocurition.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

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Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time. How shut with that shop

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Speaker 3: of mind and buddy, and that's.

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Speaker 4: Why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 4: Dangerous mountain of the planet.

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Speaker 2: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut the woe its left to the wide eyed, drilled bibeus.

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Speaker 5: How old Earth.

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Speaker 1: Picked that happened?

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Speaker 4: Hello everyone, and welcome back to Wonderg, the soccer betting

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Speaker 4: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Leebuff

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Speaker 4: and joining me for this upcoming Premier League I think

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Speaker 4: what is it? Match Week seven preview is BJ Cunningham

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Speaker 4: and Sam Ingram of vetting expert and gentlemen. I think

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Speaker 4: this is a fun board to kind of dig into

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Speaker 4: a lot of good by low spots, I would say,

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Speaker 4: across the Premier League as we head into the inter

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Speaker 4: national break next weekend, and we'll start with one of them.

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Speaker 4: Crystal Palace is hosting Liverpool to start the weekend seven

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Speaker 4: thirty am kickoff here in the States lunchtime over there

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Speaker 4: by you, Sam, Palace is plus four to seventy five

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Speaker 4: at home on the three way line, Liverpool minus one ninety.

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Speaker 4: The draw here is plus three sixty. You can almost

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Speaker 4: hear Jurgen Klop rolling over and wherever he is right

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Speaker 4: now complaining about the starting time for this one. Liverpool,

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Speaker 4: of course playing Champions League in the midweek and then

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Speaker 4: needing to go for.

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Speaker 1: The early KICKO.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Tuesday, right, and now they got to take on

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Speaker 4: Palace at Selhurst Tark in the early kick off. The

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Speaker 4: schedule spot is part of it, BJ, but I lean

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Speaker 4: towards Pallas here at the price. I think that the

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Speaker 4: the numbers tell us this different story about Palace not

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Speaker 4: We all thought that this team would be a lot

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Speaker 4: better than they've been. They are one of a handful

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Speaker 4: of winless teams. I think we're down to five winless

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Speaker 4: teams in the Premier League now, and I do think

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Speaker 4: that's a little unfair there. But it's not like they've

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Speaker 4: been that impressive right there. Expect a goal differentials suggest

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Speaker 4: they should be around like seven points and they are

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Speaker 4: at three with three draws and three losses. The draws, though,

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Speaker 4: you can say, we're kind of impressive a few of

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Speaker 4: them at least, like they held Chelsea who have been

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Speaker 4: on the ride on the rise. Neil Miller gets United

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Speaker 4: is fine. I thought they were actually fine against Everden

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Speaker 4: at Goodison Park. That game could have gone in any direction.

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Speaker 4: Any result would have been fair there. So plus four

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Speaker 4: seventy five, I think on a money line or if

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Speaker 4: you want to the thread, which I'm sure you're gonna

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Speaker 4: pump out here, I feel like that's the way to

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Speaker 4: go here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of a lot of football for Liverpool

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Speaker 1: now because they had to not only they're gonna play

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Speaker 1: the Champions League here in the midweek, but they had

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Speaker 1: to play in the EFL Cup against West Ham and

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Speaker 1: if you look at the lineup they played in that match,

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Speaker 1: it wasn't a like completely fully rotated lineup. So it's

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Speaker 1: really not that great of a spot here for Liverpool.

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Speaker 1: And you know, I think it's pretty clear right now

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Speaker 1: that if you're going to, you know, frustrate Liverpool or

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Speaker 1: give them some problems, you have to do what not

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Speaker 1: Ingham Forest was able to do. And from what we've

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Speaker 1: seen from Crystal Palace this season, especially when they've played

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Speaker 1: better teams, is they're pretty good sitting in that compact

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Speaker 1: five to three too, like they can they can sit

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Speaker 1: in it and they can deny space to the middle

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Speaker 1: and they can make life difficult. You mentioned the expected goals, Michael, Well,

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Speaker 1: it's really just been their offense so far. I mean

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Speaker 1: they've con see they've they've only scored four goals, but

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Speaker 1: they've created seven and a half, so you know, the

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Speaker 1: offense is due for a little bit of positive aggression.

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Speaker 1: The one thing that worries me is so you know, yes,

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Speaker 1: Nottingham Force was able to to frustrate Liverpool, but man,

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Speaker 1: they are still very very difficult team to defend, like

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Speaker 1: because they're able to transition or rotate their top three

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Speaker 1: guys with it be Jota, Luis Diaz and Sala. All

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Speaker 1: those guys can drop into the half space, all of

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Speaker 1: them can drop to even build up, which creates space

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Speaker 1: and obviously can create more chances for Liverpool. But again,

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Speaker 1: horrible spot here for Liverpool. We're going on three weeks

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Speaker 1: now where they've been playing two to three matches a week,

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Speaker 1: so I think a spot's pretty good here for Palace.

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Speaker 1: I think Liverpool is a tad over valued. I have

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Speaker 1: Liverpool projected at minus one thirty five, So I am

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Speaker 1: showing a little bit of value on Palace and still

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Speaker 1: I still do believe in this Palace team, even though

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Speaker 1: the results haven't been there. I think the results are

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Speaker 1: coming and they may get a result here against Liverpool.

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Speaker 4: Sam you thinking, uh, looks a little skinny on Liverpool, right.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it does. Really don't like this for Liverpool at

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Speaker 5: minus two hundred for all the reasons mentioned Bologna on

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Speaker 5: Wednesday night and then traveling to the capital Saturday lunch time.

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Speaker 5: It feels a bit criminal really these I'll keep going

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Speaker 5: on about it, but these players, they are just treated

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Speaker 5: like they're just flogged, treated like cattle and the toe

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Speaker 5: to go again, and that is difficult. We don't really

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Speaker 5: think of players like that. We think of the more

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Speaker 5: as machines, like from a viewing standpoint, but they're really not.

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Speaker 5: But yes, I don't really like this spot for Liverpool

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Speaker 5: and Crystal Palace don't really like playing Liverpool. Liverpool are

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Speaker 5: unbeaten in the last nine at Salehost Park, winning eight

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Speaker 5: and Palace have actually conceded more Premier League goals against

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Speaker 5: Liverpool than they have against any other opponents. So a

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Speaker 5: bit of a bogie side if you can call Liverpool that,

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Speaker 5: because obviously they beat most teams, so I'm not sure

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Speaker 5: if they fall into that category. But Palace have just

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Speaker 5: traveled to Liverpool, of course, becoming the first side to

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Speaker 5: fall short against Everton in the season, which I absolutely

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Speaker 5: love for Michael all that rock their confidence a little.

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Speaker 5: Maybe this is a Palace team which you mentioned a

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Speaker 5: minute ago, that are yet to find their feet this

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Speaker 5: season after such an impressive ending to last campaign. I

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Speaker 5: saw a quote actually from Glasner after the Everton game

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Speaker 5: touching on their poor form and he said, there are

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Speaker 5: two different ways you can deal with the situation. Blame

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Speaker 5: the others, blame whoever, or start with your yourself changing

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Speaker 5: something and not bury your head in the sand. You

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Speaker 5: roll your sleeves up and keep going because mentality is great,

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Speaker 5: character is great. We have to find a way to

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Speaker 5: get the momentum back and we will try it next

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Speaker 5: week against Liverpool of course. And to be honest, that's

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Speaker 5: got me going a little bit let alone. What's right that?

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Speaker 4: So we sure he's actually and that sounded very very

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Speaker 4: trure chilly.

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Speaker 5: Yeah they really did. Yeah, So like that they're going

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Speaker 5: to be targeting this game. They're going to know Liverpool

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Speaker 5: have our plenty of games in the legs and at

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Speaker 5: one what was it, what are they minus minus two

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Speaker 5: hundred Liverpool wins just wouldn't be going anywhere near that.

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Speaker 5: But equally, like BJ said this, this Liverpool team are

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Speaker 5: really really handy outfit and they're showing that maybe they've

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Speaker 5: got Premier League winning capabilities in that team with the

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Speaker 5: with the depth of the squad and how hony slots

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Speaker 5: come in and and just slotted in. So I'm probably

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Speaker 5: going to pass on this one, as boring as it

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Speaker 5: is to open the show, because I can easily see

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Speaker 5: Liverpool turning up and getting a job done, business like.

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Speaker 5: They probably won't run out you know, comfortable winners buck

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Speaker 5: and see them getting it done. So pass for me.

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Speaker 4: I should note should have noted that Liverpool are top

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Speaker 4: of the table right now. They're down to plus four

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Speaker 4: fifty to win the Premier League in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Can I mention something about that really quick? If you

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Speaker 1: want to bet Liverpool, I would I would advise people

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Speaker 1: to wait because they have a very very difficult schedule

150
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Speaker 1: coming up after the international break from the Champions League

151
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Speaker 1: and in the Premier League as well, and obviously they

152
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Speaker 1: haven't really played the top tier teams yet outside of

153
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Speaker 1: obviously Manchester United, so I would I would caution people

154
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Speaker 1: to maybe wait because when Liverpool lost to Ningham Forest,

155
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Speaker 1: they dropped to eight to one to win the Premier League.

156
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Speaker 1: So if they go through a little bit of a

157
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Speaker 1: difficult run through this bad period, you could probably get

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Speaker 1: a better price on them. If Arsenal City obviously keep form.

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Speaker 4: We'll talk about those two teams in the next two matches.

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Speaker 4: City is now the second favorite to win the Premier

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Speaker 4: League at plus one eighty. Arsenal BJ are the favorites

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Speaker 4: there plus one forty. But does look like these three

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Speaker 4: teams are pretty clearly separating themselves from the from the pack.

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Speaker 4: City host Fulham over this weekend, coming up there minus

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Speaker 4: four to twenty five at home Fullham plus one plus

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Speaker 4: nine fifty the draws plus six hundred. The Cottagers have

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Speaker 4: been you know, you call Liverpool a handy outfit. Fulham

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Speaker 4: has definitely ticked that box as well. To start the year.

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Speaker 4: They're coming off an impressive one nil over another handy

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Speaker 4: outfit and nodding a Forest. They're up to sixth place

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Speaker 4: in the Premier League. Everything kind of checks out here too.

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Speaker 4: They've got egals scored five against the expectacles are not

173
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Speaker 4: far off from that five unbeaten on the bounce. The

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Speaker 4: schedule has been real like a pretty good representation. They've

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Speaker 4: had that win against Newcastle United and Forrest coming into

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Speaker 4: this match, so they should be confident. It's just you

177
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Speaker 4: kind of feel bad for Fulham going to a city

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Speaker 4: in the spot with the two back to back jaws

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Speaker 4: for City knowing that they've got to get a result

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Speaker 4: here to keep pace with the likes of Liverpool and Arsenal,

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Speaker 4: who are both going to be big favorites, to get

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Speaker 4: three points over the weekend and go into the international

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Speaker 4: break at the very worst, you know, within one point

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Speaker 4: of the top of the table. Sam, So it does

185
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Speaker 4: feel like City might come out and just just paste

186
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Speaker 4: them here. It's just a tricky spot for Fulham to

187
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Speaker 4: go and cause of rockus. But in other situuations I'd

188
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Speaker 4: be a little a little more confident and full them

189
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Speaker 4: perhaps outrunning these ads spot on.

190
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Speaker 5: I've been big in Fulham up for a little while now,

191
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Speaker 5: so it feels like the time to stand up and

192
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Speaker 5: put more money where my mouth is away at City,

193
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Speaker 5: big win on the road. Like you said against Forrest

194
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Speaker 5: last time out, They've been given a plus one point

195
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Speaker 5: seventy five Asian handicap, which would have easily won in

196
00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:27,240
Speaker 5: all of their games to date this season, but it's

197
00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:29,920
Speaker 5: a big handicap. They've lost just once in the opener

198
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Speaker 5: against United in Manchester, so they've tasted defeat already in

199
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Speaker 5: that area this season, and honestly, I just hate opposing

200
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Speaker 5: man City in any capacity, especially at home, especially with

201
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Speaker 5: two sides now potentially sniffing around this Premier League title.

202
00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:49,520
Speaker 5: A lot has been written and spoken about following that

203
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Speaker 5: Arsenal game. The Newcastle matchup always looked a bit awkward

204
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Speaker 5: following that. Pep will have gone over all of this,

205
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Speaker 5: since it'll be very much then versus the rest of

206
00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:02,360
Speaker 5: the world in that Jesson room, and I just hate

207
00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:04,760
Speaker 5: the thought of that. In terms of backing against them.

208
00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:08,880
Speaker 5: They played Champions League yesterday Bratislava four nil, ran away

209
00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:11,079
Speaker 5: with it wouldn't have taken too much out of the

210
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Speaker 5: tank seventy six percent possession, twenty eight shots to three

211
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Speaker 5: no shots on target conceded, so that screams like a

212
00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:23,640
Speaker 5: glorified friendly slash. Training match. Really for me, it always

213
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Speaker 5: boils down to whether I'd feel more comfortable on City

214
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Speaker 5: minus one point seventy five or Fulham plus one point

215
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Speaker 5: seventy five. That's something I always like build into my

216
00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:36,400
Speaker 5: thought process when taking an Asia handicap line. And I

217
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Speaker 5: have to say I think it would be the latter.

218
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Speaker 5: I think it would be on Fulham. But still I'm

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Speaker 5: gonna swearve it because I am a coward. But if

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Speaker 5: you want Fulham on side somehow, then raw him and

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Speaker 5: Haz to take two or more shots. Shots in the

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Speaker 5: game is plus one three seven. That could be a

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Speaker 5: way into this one. He's hit two or more shots

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Speaker 5: in both of his last games and we mentioned last

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Speaker 5: week on the show maybe he's looking like he's getting

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Speaker 5: back to the Him andezvo the Wolves Jim Andez. But yeah,

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Speaker 5: I suppose we'll see on that front. I just hate

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Speaker 5: backing against City and like you said, two draws Arsenal

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Speaker 5: and Newcastle, are they really going to drop points again

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Speaker 5: or is it? You know they are? They really not

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Speaker 5: going to run away with this the juries out, I'd

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Speaker 5: expect them to win comfortably.

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Speaker 1: Great litmus test here for Fulham because you know, like

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Speaker 1: you said Sam. You know, for Fulham has been incredibly

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Speaker 1: impressive and I think what's been most impressive. I saw

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Speaker 1: a stat essentially they have turned the ball over the

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Speaker 1: fewest of anybody in their own final third overall for

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Speaker 1: the entire season, which is a very impressive stat. And

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Speaker 1: you know that that obviously means they're maybe playing a

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Speaker 1: little bit more direct, but also when they do decide

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Speaker 1: to build out of the back, that they're actually somewhat successful.

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Speaker 1: And we know that City's press has been a lot

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Speaker 1: better this season. But you know, yes they beat Newcastle

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Speaker 1: at home, but other than that they've played United, Leicester, Ipswich,

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Speaker 1: west Ham and Forest right, so this is this is

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Speaker 1: time to take on one of the big boys. I

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Speaker 1: will say last year at the Ethie had they held

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Speaker 1: City to seven shots, which was kind of interesting. They

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Speaker 1: were very good sitting in their compact defensive block and

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Speaker 1: I think that obviously there's no Paulinia there anymore, but

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Speaker 1: you could make a case maybe for the under here,

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Speaker 1: but of course that's always a scary thought with that

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Speaker 1: big number nine guy in the center for.

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Speaker 4: City that it is. Yes, I love for Fulham, but

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Speaker 4: it's just not the situation to get riled up here.

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Speaker 4: They're fourteen to want to finish top six right now,

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Speaker 4: so still like an outsider. There is just like this,

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Speaker 4: this cohort of teams Fulham, Bornmuth and Forrest, who I

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Speaker 4: think all three of them are are still side you

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Speaker 4: want to be having your pocket for for situations when

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Speaker 4: they're not playing Man City and what is essentially a

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Speaker 4: must win game for them. One team that does not

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Speaker 4: fit that bill is Southampton. They are traveling to Arsenal

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Speaker 4: take on BJ's Gunners. The Gunners are the biggest favorite

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Speaker 4: on the board this weekend minus seven to fifty on

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Speaker 4: the three way line, Southampton traveling at seventeen to one

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Speaker 4: the draws plus eight fifty. We bring this twy up

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Speaker 4: a lot that these these prices, like a seventeen to

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Speaker 4: one looks long, but considering some of the prices that

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Speaker 4: used to be dealt out on the three way market

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Speaker 4: a couple of years ago, you'd get a team like

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Speaker 4: Southampton closer like twenty eight to one in this situation,

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Speaker 4: So it's really not that interesting of a game for me.

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Speaker 4: Here BJ Sam used the term business like for to

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Speaker 4: describe what he could see Liverpool doing in Palace. I

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Speaker 4: look at this the same for Arsenal. It's like the

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Speaker 4: international breaks on the other side of this weekend. This

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Speaker 4: looks like a spot where you can do what you

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Speaker 4: need to do and then get out of dodge and

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Speaker 4: just hold, hold, serve against a team that shouldn't give

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Speaker 4: you much trouble. But then again, we said we would

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Speaker 4: say that I bet Leicster last weekend and some nervy

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Speaker 4: moments for Arsenal in that.

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Speaker 1: One there was. But Arsenal's offense is back, Michael, It's back. No,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to step on what Sam's going to

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Speaker 1: say because I love his bet that he's about to give.

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Speaker 1: But really, just the only handicap you need for this

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Speaker 1: match is set pieces. Like Arsenal's the best, Southampton's the worst.

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Speaker 1: So set piece f C is probably going to score

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Speaker 1: a couple of goals off of them and everybody's gonna

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Speaker 1: get mad and say, oh, well they can't create anything

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Speaker 1: open play, they can only do set piece as well.

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Speaker 1: You're the most elite set piece team ever and nobody

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Speaker 1: can stop you. What does it matter? Right? So yeah,

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Speaker 1: this should be I mean, Sam, I don't know if

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Speaker 1: you have markets available to bet this in the UK.

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Speaker 1: We don't have it available in the United States. But

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Speaker 1: if Arsenal, if they offered to bet Arsenal to score

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Speaker 1: a goal like method of goal off of a set piece,

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Speaker 1: what do you think we that line would be like

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Speaker 1: minus one fifty minus one seventy. Where where we set

302
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Speaker 1: that line? You think? So?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: So for me, I mean, I think you know all

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Speaker 1: the main markets is it's about right. I have no

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Speaker 1: interest in taking an Arsenal under here. I know that

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Speaker 1: you know Lester did nothing and PSG did nothing against them,

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Speaker 1: But with how bad Sali Empton is a defending set pieces,

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Speaker 1: Arsenal literally could score five off.

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Speaker 5: I will try and find a price for that, Whilster

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Speaker 5: on the podcast, because I'm pretty sure there is a

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Speaker 5: market I think so there definitely is in play on

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Speaker 5: bet for five, but I'm not sure about pregame. I

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Speaker 5: can't remember, but I'll have a look. Just carrying on

315
00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:40,480
Speaker 5: that theme, really, my bet is going to be Gabrielle

316
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Speaker 5: anytime scorer plus five point fifty And just quickly looking

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Speaker 5: back at the Monday night football Saints really brightly for

318
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Speaker 5: ten minutes against Bournemouth on the weekend, but that was

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Speaker 5: all we got from them. They didn't trouble Bournemouth after that,

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Speaker 5: and they looked really vulnerable whenever there were multiple bodies

321
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Speaker 5: in the defensive thad in transition, there was an evident

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Speaker 5: golf and quality for me between the two sides, that

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00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:09,440
Speaker 5: was clear. Nine of Southampton starting eleven were new signings,

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Speaker 5: so they're going to need to gel. They're going to

325
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Speaker 5: need time to bed in time they've not really got

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Speaker 5: because now we're straight into Arsenal the Emirates, and regardless

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Speaker 5: of bedding in adapting, I'm not sure this current crop

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Speaker 5: is of the level to compete and profit in the

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Speaker 5: Premier League. Like, I just don't see it. Bj said

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Speaker 5: last week that he has Ipswich down as the worst

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Speaker 5: team in the division this season. Well, like Southampton may

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Speaker 5: not be far off, they cannot be far off. Like

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00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:41,919
Speaker 5: I wonder how many players Kian McKenna would pinch in

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Speaker 5: Southampton starting eleven and slot straight into their So I

335
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Speaker 5: think you can make a case for Aaron Ramsdell and

336
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Speaker 5: go I can see that, and Tyler dibblin young lad.

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Speaker 5: He looks like a really good prospect, but he's at

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Speaker 5: the stage of his career where he's not a guaranteed starter.

339
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Speaker 5: I think maybe just Ramsdale and that is yeah, I

340
00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:05,320
Speaker 5: think that says a lot. Anyway, I cannot see anything

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Speaker 5: other than an Arsenal victory here. They're minus eight eight

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Speaker 5: three to win the game. So I'm not really, you know,

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Speaker 5: breaking the mold when I say that, not keen on

344
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Speaker 5: the Asian handicap. When you start digging into the underlying

345
00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:20,399
Speaker 5: numbers and you hone in on Southampton's set peace data

346
00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:23,040
Speaker 5: in the Premier League this season, you'll see that they

347
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Speaker 5: unwantedly lead the way in set piece XGA with three

348
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Speaker 5: point eight two expect it goes against from saint pieces

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Speaker 5: in just six games. So this is an Arsenal side

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Speaker 5: that we know are very good at set pieces, very

351
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Speaker 5: good at corners, getting the ball into the box from

352
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Speaker 5: wide three kicks. They've scored three goals from set pieces

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Speaker 5: in six games so far and it could have been more.

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Speaker 5: They also led the way and go scored from set

355
00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 5: pieces last season as well. So looking at Gabrielle to

356
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Speaker 5: score any time at plus five point fifty, that looks

357
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Speaker 5: really appealing. Like you just have to go back to

358
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Speaker 5: the Man City game, which is kind of fresh in

359
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Speaker 5: my mind and probably should have had a brace there

360
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Speaker 5: from exactly the same corner routine they tried. They tried

361
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Speaker 5: man'sman marking with Docu at first I think it was,

362
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Speaker 5: which is ridiculous. And then they put Carl Walker on

363
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Speaker 5: Harland on them on Gabrielle sorry, and neither worked and

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Speaker 5: Gabrielle kind of just skipped through and Yeah, was very

365
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,639
Speaker 5: close to scoring on two occasions, scored on one. So

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Speaker 5: yeah plus five fifty looks like it'll be my main

367
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Speaker 5: play here and Gabrielle first and last goo score at

368
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:33,040
Speaker 5: eighteen to one, I'll probably have a few pennies on

369
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Speaker 5: both of them. Two perfect.

370
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Speaker 4: That brings us to west Ham and Ipswich, so the

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Speaker 4: two worst teams yeah in the Premier League per you

372
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Speaker 4: guys dooking it out one one taken on west Ham

373
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Speaker 4: though and west Ham's widers watch twenty five BJ they're

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Speaker 4: hosting Ipswich plus three twenty the drawers plus three hundred.

375
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Speaker 4: I think it comes down to just if you trust

376
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Speaker 4: this west Ham defense enough to be competent, and I

377
00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,119
Speaker 4: guess they wear that against Brentford over the weekend, So

378
00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,439
Speaker 4: you do think that this could be a BILO spot

379
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:13,920
Speaker 4: on the Hammers potentially.

380
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:20,000
Speaker 1: I mean here's the thing. I think these are two

381
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Speaker 1: of the teams that are just really horrible at pressing. Right.

382
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,000
Speaker 1: So west Ham's troubles this season have been when they've

383
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Speaker 1: tried to build out of the back and they've just

384
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 1: consistently turned the ball over and gave teams those easy opportunities.

385
00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:35,719
Speaker 1: There was ever a team, you know, I said this

386
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Speaker 1: when Southampton played a Switch. I was like, if there

387
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:40,920
Speaker 1: was ever a team that if Southampton's build up would

388
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:44,840
Speaker 1: look good against, it would be Ipswich And and behold,

389
00:20:44,880 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 1: they created two point four expected goals and were really

390
00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:51,080
Speaker 1: unlucky not to win the match. You know, west Ham

391
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,720
Speaker 1: actually has been a little bit better than you would

392
00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 1: think in terms of playing through pressure. You know, there's

393
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,840
Speaker 1: seventh in dangerous possession lost in their own final third.

394
00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 1: That's seventh best. Excuse me, well, Ipswich is allowing the

395
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 1: highest build up completion percentage of anybody in the Premier League.

396
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Speaker 1: So the thing for me is is if west Ham

397
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 1: is actually able to build up and their high block

398
00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 1: is actually able to limit the Zip Switch team that

399
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 1: has been horrible offensively and they're at home, minus one

400
00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:28,720
Speaker 1: twenty five might be a cheap price on them.

401
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:29,439
Speaker 4: Here.

402
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:31,639
Speaker 1: I think I have west Ham projected north of minus

403
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:35,199
Speaker 1: one sixty. I'm just trying to find the courage to

404
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 1: be able to bet it. I haven't found the courage currently,

405
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 1: but maybe I'll get there by the time we reach Friday,

406
00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 1: or maybe even Saturday. But yeah, I think this is

407
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:46,560
Speaker 1: a decent by low spot on west Ham. I know

408
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,880
Speaker 1: they haven't been that good this season, but listen, they've

409
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 1: played a pretty difficult schedule. A lot of their other

410
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,359
Speaker 1: matches against mid table teams have been on the road.

411
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,639
Speaker 1: This is the first one at home where they're you know,

412
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:03,200
Speaker 1: big favorites, So good bye those spot in west Ham.

413
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:04,879
Speaker 1: But as you can hear from that side, I'm not

414
00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 1: too thrilled.

415
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:09,680
Speaker 4: I mean, Sam, Had kind of can take what you

416
00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:11,960
Speaker 4: said and find a way in here, because I think

417
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:15,159
Speaker 4: it kind of plays to both the kind of you

418
00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:16,959
Speaker 4: speaking out of both sides of your mouth a little bit.

419
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 4: It's like this defense is a bit of a mess,

420
00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,960
Speaker 4: but they should win, So Sam, your bet makes some

421
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:23,440
Speaker 4: sense here.

422
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, more of a lean than anything. Like Beja said,

423
00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 5: I'm not really in a position to trust either team

424
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 5: at present, especially west Ham, and I've been banging the

425
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,439
Speaker 5: drum a little bit about goals in Ipswich games, so

426
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 5: pretty happy to see two two on the weekend. And

427
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 5: at west Ham will they get on the school sheet again? Maybe?

428
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:47,920
Speaker 5: But only Lester have had fewer shots than Ipswich Town

429
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:52,040
Speaker 5: in the Premier League this season, and Ipswich has accumulated

430
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 5: the lowest XG and open plate of any team with

431
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:57,679
Speaker 5: two point nine XG from six games. So that's not

432
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 5: ideal when looking at my selection, which is west Ham

433
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 5: to win and both teams to score at plus two

434
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,880
Speaker 5: four four. So I'm pretty confident west Ham at home

435
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 5: they have the tools to bypass that in switch midfield

436
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 5: and then cause some real problems. I'm just hesitant to

437
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 5: really back west Ham right now because just so myth

438
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:20,439
Speaker 5: around like they're defending and their approach to games, it

439
00:23:20,520 --> 00:23:22,720
Speaker 5: just really does need to be better at this level.

440
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 5: Don't love west Ham at minus one twenty, but west Ham.

441
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 5: I'm both teams to score plus two for four. It's

442
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 5: a little bit more palatable, bigger price, probably with a

443
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:35,360
Speaker 5: smaller stake if I had to. Yeah, I just don't

444
00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:39,440
Speaker 5: feel like I can trust west Ham right now. What

445
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 5: I would expect a couple of goals in this so yeah,

446
00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:45,400
Speaker 5: west Ham to win, both teams to score marveling.

447
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 4: Okay, let's stay in the in London and look at

448
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 4: Brentford in Wolves next. Brentford plus one or five at home,

449
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 4: Wolves traveling plus two to fifty five, the drivers plus

450
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 4: two sixty five here Brentford a little disappointing over the

451
00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 4: weekend against west Ham. We think we all we're expecting

452
00:24:06,280 --> 00:24:11,959
Speaker 4: better from them. Wolves been disappointing all season, though I

453
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 4: think last week was perhaps their most encouraging sign of

454
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:19,920
Speaker 4: the season in the two one loss to Liverpool. Still

455
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:23,119
Speaker 4: without a win, minus ten goal difference. What their expectacle

456
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 4: suggests that should be around minus four, So some positive

457
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 4: regression coming for this team, you think. BJ That's kind

458
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 4: of scares me off. I don't want to bet against

459
00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:36,479
Speaker 4: either one of these sides, and in this particular matchup.

460
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:39,879
Speaker 1: Here's the thing. I am showing a little value on

461
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:42,440
Speaker 1: Renford and I kind of dug into those type of numbers,

462
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 1: and a lot of it is just prior year data,

463
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 1: right like utilizing what these teams have done in prior years,

464
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 1: you know, and obviously early on the season I tend

465
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:53,639
Speaker 1: to lean pretty heavily on what teams did in the

466
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 1: prior year versus what they've done and only you know,

467
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 1: six matches to begin here. So I am showing a

468
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:01,320
Speaker 1: little bit of value on Brentford, have them closer to

469
00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 1: minus one twenty. But I think there are some really

470
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 1: concerning signs for them, especially defensively right now they're dead

471
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 1: last and expected goals allowed, and I get it, they've

472
00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:14,920
Speaker 1: conceded over two expected goals to Liverpool, to City, to Tottenham.

473
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 1: They conceded you know about one expected goal to west

474
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 1: Ham over the weekend. But I mean, if you want

475
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,560
Speaker 1: to be at Brentford, just bet them to score first,

476
00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:26,360
Speaker 1: I guess is the way to play them, right, three

477
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 1: goals inside the first minute and three straight matches, that's

478
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:34,440
Speaker 1: the Premier League record. But yeah, the other concerning sign

479
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 1: is I kind of said this coming into the season,

480
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,880
Speaker 1: is that you know, without Aaron Hickey and without Rico Henry,

481
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 1: they were limited in terms of what they could do

482
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:45,920
Speaker 1: with their fullbacks. Right so you've seen them start Quemos

483
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 1: Potter at at left back is at left wing back

484
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 1: essentially like he's naturally a left winger. So they're playing

485
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 1: a lot of guys out of position. And the concerning

486
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 1: sign here for me as well is obviously Brentford is

487
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 1: always so good on set pieces well. Wolves consistently under

488
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 1: Garry O'Neil has been one of the best set piece defenses.

489
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 1: And Matthias Jansen is out for Brentford who is the

490
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 1: set piece taker for them. So and if you watch

491
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 1: Fabuo Carba Hall this weekend, there were some pretty poor

492
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 1: set pieces that he delivered in there for Brentford against

493
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 1: west Ham. So I'm passing. I'm sure the Bees will

494
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 1: win this match after I decided that maybe I'm done

495
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,359
Speaker 1: with them. But we have our spot for the Bees

496
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 1: coming up after the international break, Michael, and it's it's

497
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 1: at Old Trafford, so that'll.

498
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 4: Be the spot about the Bees waiting with bated Brett there. Sam,

499
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 4: you're looking kind of looks like you feel the same

500
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 4: way here.

501
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it's hard to look past the Brentford

502
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 5: win at minus one oh five. Given Wolves a start,

503
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 5: I think most people will head towards that straight away.

504
00:26:46,280 --> 00:26:49,200
Speaker 5: Wolves have picked up one point in six games against

505
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:51,399
Speaker 5: Forrest to the Sea Ground, but if you look at

506
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 5: their schedule you cannot really blame them. Their schedule has

507
00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 5: been horrendous, so tough, and I just hope there's level

508
00:26:57,520 --> 00:27:00,159
Speaker 5: heads at Molanu and Gary o'knew's job is saying for

509
00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 5: the foreseeable because that start to the season is ridiculous.

510
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 5: I'm really intrigued to see how they do here. Actually

511
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 5: against Brentford on the weekend. It's not an easy place

512
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 5: to go, but it's an easier task than what they

513
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 5: face so far, So this is an intriguing one for me.

514
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:19,120
Speaker 5: After the international break, they host man City and then

515
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 5: travel to Brighton, which is ridiculous easier, yeah, but after

516
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 5: that I think that's where we're really going to find

517
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 5: out where Wolves is level. Is Palace, Southampton, Fulham, Bournemouth, Evan,

518
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:33,439
Speaker 5: west Ham, Ipswich and Leicester. That leads them right up

519
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 5: to Christmas Day. So that's a stretch which is kind

520
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 5: but that's no wonder because they've played all of the

521
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 5: top teams already in the opening six games. From a

522
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,719
Speaker 5: better perspective, I think it's it's probably worth waiting for

523
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 5: Wolves to play Brentford City and Brighton and then just

524
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:52,920
Speaker 5: have a look to see what the price they are

525
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 5: to avoid relegation, knowing full well that they're scheduling does

526
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,399
Speaker 5: a one to eighty and flips on its head. Wolves

527
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 5: at one point three six. I don't know what that

528
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:07,159
Speaker 5: is in in your fractions to avoid the drop at present.

529
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 5: That may well change after another three losses, so keep

530
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 5: an eye on that. But here on the weekends, although

531
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 5: probably an easier task than they face so far, that

532
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 5: the poor form and tough run they've been on might

533
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 5: affect Wolf somewhat, especially when Brentford get a goal, which

534
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 5: I expect them to at home. So Brentford minus one

535
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,640
Speaker 5: of five is what I'll put forward, but it's it's

536
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 5: quite tentative and it's more of a lean. There are

537
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 5: definitely more enticing bets in their Premier League this weekend.

538
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 4: And one of them I think is Born With on

539
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 4: the road against Leicester. They're plus one fifteen. The Cherries

540
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 4: are Leicester plus two twenty five, the Drys plus two sixty.

541
00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 4: I think Lester probably has played the most mental games

542
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 4: of any team so far the Premier League. I feel

543
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 4: like every weekend I go into thinking, ah, this should

544
00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 4: be ho hum, you know favorite the Tottenham will beat Lester,

545
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 4: or Arsenal just crush Lester or whatever, even like the

546
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 4: Palace match, like yeah, Palace probably just take care of

547
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 4: business and and it just ends up getting flipped on

548
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,160
Speaker 4: its head. Even that the bill of match was was interesting.

549
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 4: Still haven't got a win, but they do have three draws.

550
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 4: Win against Furs, won against Pallace and won against Evertten.

551
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 4: The one of Palace on the road shipped six expected

552
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 4: goals to Arsenal over the weekend and lost four to two.

553
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 4: It was two to two going into the the late

554
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 4: stages of that one.

555
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,959
Speaker 1: Arsenal can't. Arsenal's not good offensively though, remember that, yeah exactly.

556
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:32,960
Speaker 1: People tell you that they.

557
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 4: Will I will do that, yeah, born with Meanwhile, I

558
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 4: feel like there what they've done this season has just

559
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 4: made sense, right, Like took care of Southampton and Everton

560
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 4: and wins. I mean the Everden win of course was crazy,

561
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 4: but no, you get the point, right, They're they're beating

562
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 4: the teams they're supposed to beat. They've got a couple

563
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 4: of draws against teams that make sense now that we

564
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 4: know a little bit about them, and Forced and Newcastle

565
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 4: U and then the losses tight on to Chelsea and

566
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 4: then they just were overwhelmed a little bit against Liverpool

567
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 4: at Anfield. So everything about the string the team I

568
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 4: think just makes sense they're going in the direction we

569
00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 4: thought they were. They're kind of on the straight and narrow,

570
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 4: and I think that's enough to be confident to bet

571
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 4: them at plus twenty. Sam on the road at Leicester,

572
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 4: I think you're right.

573
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, I just want to make an announcement. Really, I've

574
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 5: actually retired from Winter nil Betton. I was on Arsenal

575
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 5: Winter nil and the state of Leicester's goals.

576
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 1: They should have wanted, Sam, I mean Narsenals honestly, yeah,

577
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 1: I mean.

578
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 5: I mentioned it on the Bann Expert pot this morning.

579
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 5: I'm actually out of retired from Winter No. No more

580
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 5: for me. I'm done with it the bet and gods

581
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 5: do not look down favorably on me in that market

582
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 5: for some reason.

583
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 1: You can join me on both teams to score No,

584
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 1: it's my favorite bet in this this entire game, lal only.

585
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 5: So Bournemouth grew into the game against Southampton Monday night

586
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 5: after ten or so minutes of pressure. If Nilsen got

587
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 5: his first goal for the club, really really good finish

588
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 5: balls come over his shoulder and he's follied at home.

589
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 5: It's big money signing for Bournemouth, so it's important he's

590
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 5: off the mark and quickly, and I think he'll be

591
00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 5: he'll prove to be a really good addition at the

592
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 5: top end of the pitch. But Antoine Semeno, I thought

593
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 5: he was brilliant and really really good use both feet,

594
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 5: got a really good strike on him. Powerful, strong, unpredictable.

595
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 5: These kind of players are going to really trouble Leicester,

596
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 5: I'm pretty sure, especially when they're in position and they're

597
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 5: hounding them to make a mistake. So yeah, Leicester Arsenal

598
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,680
Speaker 5: scupper in my Arsenal winter Nilbet's fair play to them.

599
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,720
Speaker 5: They show character, got to take the game to Arsenal

600
00:31:47,760 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 5: after halftime and that's no mean feat of the Emirates.

601
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 5: But there was a big, big golf there and all

602
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 5: that XG later Arsenal took all three points and that

603
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 5: actually now makes Leicester the poor side defensively in the league.

604
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 5: I think you mentioned Brentford might be above them from

605
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 5: the XG. I'm going off they're at twelve point seventy

606
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 5: five XGA in six games, which is really really not

607
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 5: good and against the Cherry's Yeah, another tough game. I

608
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 5: like Bournemouth in this spot. They showed against Southampton that

609
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 5: there was also a golfing class there there and I've

610
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 5: got Southampton Lester and Hips which rated quite evenly. So

611
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,960
Speaker 5: if Bournemouth can do that to Southampton, although it was

612
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 5: probably a perfect fit stylistically in that matchup against their

613
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 5: possession focused Russell Martins side, I'm having them to cause

614
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 5: Leicester some real problems here. Burnemouth first suffocating, you have

615
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 5: to be right at it against them. Concentration levels need

616
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 5: to be sky high because their game plan is to

617
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 5: pounce on any little mistake to force opponents down alleys

618
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 5: and into space where they can pick pockets. And I

619
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 5: feel like they'll profit again from another newly promoted side.

620
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 5: There is life in this Leicester side. You've seen that

621
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 5: at the Emirates that they're not going to roll over.

622
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 5: I think they've they've got to go and then they've

623
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 5: got a bit of fighting. Then any Steve Cooper side

624
00:33:03,400 --> 00:33:06,840
Speaker 5: will do. So if you want to get Bomuf on

625
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 5: the side and you would like the security of the

626
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 5: draw as well, then the minus zero point two five

627
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 5: Burma face and handicap up minus one one five. I

628
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 5: think that's probably the standout bet for me of the weekend.

629
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. So the thing with Lester is right

630
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 1: now I mean their offenses, Like you mentioned, Sam, they're terrible.

631
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 1: They're taking this is this is not a good stat

632
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 1: or a position to be in. They are taking the

633
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 1: fewest shots of anybody in the Premier League and they

634
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 1: are conceding the most shots. You generally can't win doing that.

635
00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 1: But the biggest thing for me here is Lester under

636
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 1: Steve Cooper have been trying to build out of the

637
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 1: back a little bit more. They were trying to maintain

638
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 1: what they did in the Championship under Maresca, and boy

639
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 1: it has gone very very badly. They are second to

640
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 1: last the Premier League in possession, lost in their own final,

641
00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 1: third in dangerous areas well bornemous number one. They're the

642
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,800
Speaker 1: best pressing team in the Premier League. So at it

643
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 1: kind of echoing what I said about Southampton against Bournemouth,

644
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 1: where I was just like, this is about as good

645
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 1: of a matchup as you can ask for. Same thing

646
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 1: applies here if Lester's going to continue to do that.

647
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:18,400
Speaker 1: The other aspect with Lester defensively and they've conceded the

648
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 1: second most expected goals, And when I evaluate teams that

649
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 1: tend to play a little bit more passive and play

650
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:27,840
Speaker 1: deeper and play more compact structures. I want to know

651
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 1: how good are they keeping teams out of the penalty area. Well,

652
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:32,359
Speaker 1: Lester's not doing a good job of that because they're

653
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 1: seventeenth and final third of box entry conversion rate allowed.

654
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 1: So I know this looks like a by high spot

655
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 1: on Bournemouth right after a big win against Southampton and

656
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 1: then after Lester concedes seven hundred expected goals to Arsenal.

657
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 1: But I think that Bournemouth is still a little bit

658
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:50,919
Speaker 1: undervalued here. I have them projected at minus one twenty,

659
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 1: and it's kind of one of those things that you know,

660
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 1: all three of us came into the season, was like

661
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 1: this Mormon team is undervalue, not only the futures market,

662
00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 1: but pretty much on a weekend and week out basis

663
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 1: given you know, secific components. So I think this is

664
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,359
Speaker 1: a situation where, you know, you saw the market kind

665
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:06,880
Speaker 1: of move a little bit towards Bournemouth. We're at you know,

666
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 1: plus one twenty going into the match on Monday, and

667
00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 1: now we're down to plus one ten. That's not that's

668
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 1: not a very big movement, and I don't think it's

669
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 1: moved far enough. So I'm with you, guys. I like

670
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 1: I like Bournemuth plus one ten here.

671
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 4: Uh, all three of us on Bournemuth don't think we're

672
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 4: going to get that kind of unanimous momentum behind Everyden

673
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:31,359
Speaker 4: who are on a once match winning streak, and our

674
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 4: home to Newcastle.

675
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:34,720
Speaker 1: They at the restation zone, out.

676
00:35:34,600 --> 00:35:37,400
Speaker 4: Of the relegation zone. They've got the top of the

677
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 4: table in their sights and they are plus two twenty

678
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,920
Speaker 4: five against Newcastle. The Magpie is at plus one ten

679
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 4: to draw is plus two sixty five here. I mean,

680
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 4: it sounds crazy to say, but I mean the win

681
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:54,000
Speaker 4: was coming for Everdon and it we shouldn't be too surprised,

682
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:58,240
Speaker 4: but it was surprising nonetheless that they held on showed

683
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:03,320
Speaker 4: some dial coming back as well. Now a trickier opponent

684
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 4: in Newcastle, but one that has been in a little

685
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 4: bit of disarray to start the season and starting to

686
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 4: get a little frustrated because I do think that this

687
00:36:10,760 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 4: Newcastle team still has it in them to just go

688
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 4: on a run and surge up the table, but they

689
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,800
Speaker 4: just haven't. Really the results aren't showing it. The underlying

690
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 4: metrics are pretty concerning here. So it does feel like

691
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:31,919
Speaker 4: famous last words everten or nothing. That's again as it is. Yep,

692
00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:35,280
Speaker 4: I was looking to see what the number on Anthony

693
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 4: Gordon to score yeah was It's way too short. I

694
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 4: mean he's only thirteen to one to score two. So well, he's.

695
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 1: Probably gonna start up top for them in this match,

696
00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:48,799
Speaker 1: which is I'll be honest a little concerning if I'm

697
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:53,200
Speaker 1: Newcastle will given the physicality that Everton has. So yeah,

698
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:55,879
Speaker 1: that's the big story here right e Shack is as

699
00:36:56,080 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 1: currently doubtful and even if he does play, I don't

700
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:00,399
Speaker 1: think he's going to be at one hundred percent And

701
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:04,240
Speaker 1: the way to beat Everton right now is simply just crosses.

702
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 1: You know, Crystal Palace scored off across against them in

703
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:10,320
Speaker 1: the previous match. You know, Bournemouth created all their chances

704
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:12,840
Speaker 1: off a crosses. Everton's lowing the most crosses of anybody

705
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:14,560
Speaker 1: in the Premier League of their penalty area. Now, with

706
00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:17,520
Speaker 1: Branthwaye back, I think that's obviously going to improve, they'll

707
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 1: get better at winning those aerial duels. But again with

708
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 1: Callum Wilson injured and if Eachack's not going to play,

709
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:24,200
Speaker 1: I mean who what type of aerial threat does does

710
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:28,640
Speaker 1: Newcastle have to actually threaten Everton's defense, and the one

711
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 1: encouraging sign from Everton is their their high block in

712
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:36,360
Speaker 1: terms of how they're you know, generating uh turnovers and

713
00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 1: forcing them is actually still very very good. Their top

714
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:41,759
Speaker 1: five in forcing opponents to turn the ball over in

715
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 1: dangerous areas. Obviously they ex We've been through the expected

716
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 1: goals numbers time and time again. But you know with

717
00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 1: with Newcastle, something interesting is kind of happening with Eddie Howe,

718
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:55,320
Speaker 1: Like they're not they're not playing just playing like super

719
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 1: direct all the time. They actually are trying to build

720
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:00,360
Speaker 1: out of the back more. They're trying, you know, similar

721
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 1: in the same vein as like Brentford is trying to.

722
00:38:03,280 --> 00:38:06,240
Speaker 1: They're trying to be a team that can control matches more.

723
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 1: Because you know, in a match like this where you

724
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 1: don't have a shack available and you're just gonna play

725
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 1: transition back and forth with Everton, I'm not sure that's

726
00:38:13,280 --> 00:38:16,279
Speaker 1: really going to favor you, right. The one thing that

727
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 1: positive signed for Newcastle is they're very good at defending

728
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 1: set pieces, so you know Everton won't really have a

729
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 1: big advantage there. But without e Shak available, I don't

730
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 1: think Newcastle should be laying this price at all. If

731
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 1: you remember last year Michael Everton hammered Newcastle at at

732
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 1: Goodison Park. So I think this is a good spot

733
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:38,359
Speaker 1: for Everton. Obviously they play way better at home than

734
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 1: they do on the road last season. Plus six expected

735
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 1: goal to French goodis in Parks, So great spot here

736
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:46,399
Speaker 1: for Everton. I'll be on them plus half a goal

737
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,720
Speaker 1: at minus one forty five, I'd be really surprised Michael

738
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:51,319
Speaker 1: if that price if we don't get closer to a

739
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 1: pick them by match time here at e Shack is

740
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:54,880
Speaker 1: not available, so if I were listening to this, I

741
00:38:54,880 --> 00:38:59,480
Speaker 1: would probably grab Everton now famous last words, but yeah,

742
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:00,160
Speaker 1: I just do.

743
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 4: You always want to rush to the window to bet

744
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:02,000
Speaker 4: this team.

745
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 1: I don't see a scenario how Newcastle's going to get

746
00:39:05,560 --> 00:39:06,920
Speaker 1: any higher than plus one fifteen.

747
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, so this, well, the Everton result is actually like

748
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:15,359
Speaker 5: the first result I look for in the Premier League

749
00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 5: right now because of this podcast, which is just the

750
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 5: weirdest thing ever. But yeah, through that, they've they've got

751
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 5: their first win over the line. Was it deserved over

752
00:39:26,480 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 5: the course of ninety minutes. I'm not sure. Maybe not.

753
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:32,320
Speaker 5: The numbers suggests Palace we're probably unlucky on the whole,

754
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 5: but Everton edge in front kept the lead. That's something

755
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 5: they've not been able to do with later and they

756
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 5: maybe not had the rubber of green this season, but

757
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 5: they've managed to get on the score sheet multiple times

758
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 5: and haven't been able to see games out a few times,

759
00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:49,440
Speaker 5: and obviously that's the most important part. Ever have been

760
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 5: playing well, but just simply not getting results over the line.

761
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 5: So I'm hopeful they can continue their form because they

762
00:39:56,000 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 5: have been pretty good. Newcastle on Saturday you can get

763
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 5: plus zero point five Asian handicaper minus one three nine.

764
00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 5: I don't hate that it's a bit short. It's more

765
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 5: of a lean for me. I'm not as bullish as

766
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:11,760
Speaker 5: these lads are, but the draw is a big runner

767
00:40:11,760 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 5: for me. So to get that on side with a

768
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 5: full payout is a nice angle to approach. Jared branf

769
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:20,839
Speaker 5: Waite's back and next to Tarkowski, that gives Everton a

770
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 5: really solid foundation to build from. That's something they've been craving.

771
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:27,399
Speaker 5: Newcastle on the weekend against City up their game at

772
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 5: home against one of the big boys. That's usually what

773
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 5: they do at Saint James's Parks. I'm not surprised about that.

774
00:40:33,280 --> 00:40:37,920
Speaker 5: But away from home against Everton, potentially without Eazac, probably

775
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 5: without Eazac and Wilson. It's not ideal. Gordon fielding well

776
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:46,400
Speaker 5: last weekend, but it's not. I don't know. I'm not

777
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 5: thrilled with that. I wouldn't be if I was a

778
00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 5: Newcastle fan compared to what Eazac brings to the squad,

779
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:54,759
Speaker 5: to this Newcastle side, and so that and the doubt

780
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,919
Speaker 5: surrounding their start to the season form wise, I think

781
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:01,480
Speaker 5: it makes Everton alive underdog here and I've got to

782
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:05,319
Speaker 5: start with you, which I'll leave with you. Everton of

783
00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 5: won six of the last eight Premier League matches at

784
00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:11,760
Speaker 5: Goodison Park, losing the other two. Since the first game

785
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:14,319
Speaker 5: in this run on April the sixth, the Toffees have

786
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 5: won more home points than any other Premier League side,

787
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,840
Speaker 5: with eighteen points. So that doesn't make you want a

788
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 5: rush to the counter. Then I don't know what will.

789
00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:30,919
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, join us, feel the pain, baby, feel the pain. Okay, yeah,

790
00:41:31,320 --> 00:41:34,399
Speaker 4: I we do joke. But it does look like they're

791
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 4: the right side. And when you consider the praises, I

792
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:40,800
Speaker 4: think the right side of the next match is not

793
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 4: eingn Forth. They're five to one on the three way

794
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 4: line against Chelsea. Going against Chelsea again, it's not been

795
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:48,920
Speaker 4: going well doing that. Cole Palmer has had a lot

796
00:41:48,960 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 4: to say about betting against Chelsea. The Blues are now

797
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:55,600
Speaker 4: minus two twenty the drafts plus three eighty. But I

798
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:57,319
Speaker 4: just want to keep betting this forest side when they

799
00:41:57,320 --> 00:42:02,320
Speaker 4: get to praises like this until it goes pair shaped

800
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:06,400
Speaker 4: or they get adjusted down. I think their style play

801
00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 4: will always provide them a pretty high floor under Nuno

802
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 4: defensively adept and if I'm not mistaken, even under Steve Cooper,

803
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 4: like this was a team that was pretty difficult to

804
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 4: break down, more so at home then on the road.

805
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 4: So it's just it seems like it's in their DNA

806
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 4: since they've come up to the Premier League. So keeping

807
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 4: Chelsea underaps has proven difficult. But I think Forrest is

808
00:42:30,719 --> 00:42:32,840
Speaker 4: worth a shot here Sam to do it even on

809
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 4: the road.

810
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 5: Completely agree Chelsea. At the weekend, you look at the

811
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 5: school on, you look at that first half and you think, oh,

812
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:44,879
Speaker 5: this is you know, this Chelsea team scintillating like they

813
00:42:44,960 --> 00:42:48,799
Speaker 5: are looking really really good. Previous week played west Ham

814
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 5: whose defense were non existent, card through them like they

815
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 5: weren't even there. And then play Brighton at Stamford Bridge

816
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:00,759
Speaker 5: on the weekend just gone and this bright side there,

817
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 5: their their high line was just it was suicidal. Really,

818
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:11,839
Speaker 5: Chelsea played it perfectly. You can tell that's what they

819
00:43:11,840 --> 00:43:15,239
Speaker 5: were working on all week. Whenever a Chelsea midfielder had

820
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:17,400
Speaker 5: a yard of space and the ability to turn and

821
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 5: face the Brighton goal, that was the that was the

822
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:23,239
Speaker 5: trigger for the Chelsea front line to just get on

823
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 5: their get on their skates and just await a fruit

824
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:29,880
Speaker 5: ball over the top, whether it be kind of a

825
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:32,799
Speaker 5: free ball through the center backs or a dink over

826
00:43:32,840 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 5: the top, and they could have They could have been

827
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 5: out of sight by seven or eight goals in the

828
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:41,879
Speaker 5: first half. They really could. I think you had did

829
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:45,840
Speaker 5: Palmer hit the post? You had Medawiki dragged one wide,

830
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:51,040
Speaker 5: and yeah, it was like I said, it was suicidal.

831
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:54,360
Speaker 5: Chelsea are decent. They are better than most people perceived

832
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 5: they would be during the summer. But the bookies half

833
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:02,879
Speaker 5: them down as the next best thing. They've got them

834
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:06,280
Speaker 5: at what price are they? Well, they've got them really

835
00:44:06,320 --> 00:44:10,919
Speaker 5: short this weekend minus two twenty to beat Forrest at home.

836
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:15,520
Speaker 5: And I'm just not I'm just not having that, the

837
00:44:15,560 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 5: bookies are fully having Chelsea and I just don't know

838
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 5: if I'm there yet from a bend perspective. So it's

839
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 5: a good thing really because it opens up a bit

840
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 5: of value for me on the weekend. Forrest Asian handicap

841
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:30,439
Speaker 5: plus one point twenty five, you can get that at

842
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:33,959
Speaker 5: minus one p fifteen and I think that looks pretty good.

843
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 5: Chelsea are not going to get the type of defensive

844
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:40,960
Speaker 5: structure that west Ham offered. Chelsea are not going to

845
00:44:41,040 --> 00:44:45,560
Speaker 5: come up against the high line that Brighton offered. They're

846
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:47,479
Speaker 5: just not going to get out against this Forest team.

847
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 5: This handicap, like Fulham's in Man City the weekend coming

848
00:44:51,880 --> 00:44:56,320
Speaker 5: hasn't lost once, It's won six and six. Morgan gives

849
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 5: White's back from suspension this weekend as well. He missed

850
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 5: the Fulham loss, so that's massive for them. Gibbs White

851
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:07,480
Speaker 5: has missed eight games for Forrest since promotion and Forrest

852
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:10,799
Speaker 5: have lost six of those eight fixtures, so him being

853
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:14,799
Speaker 5: in this squad is very important. And just looking at

854
00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 5: the prices on the whole, I just think Forrest is

855
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:21,319
Speaker 5: massively undervalued here and that's the result of Chelsea being overvalued.

856
00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:25,960
Speaker 5: And I think that is born from their opponents in

857
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 5: their last two games. So yeah, Forrest on the handicap for.

858
00:45:29,000 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 1: Me, yeah, I agree, Sam anthonyl on the head. The

859
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 1: last two matches they played two of the you know,

860
00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 1: best possible matchups for Chelsea specifically, and now they're going

861
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:45,839
Speaker 1: to face the Nningham Forest team that just doesn't allow

862
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 1: you to do really anything. There's no real concern to

863
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:50,640
Speaker 1: take away from what Nningham Forrest did over the weekend

864
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:52,880
Speaker 1: against Fulham as it applies to this match, you know,

865
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 1: going for as it applies to maybe other matches when

866
00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 1: they're you know, sitting at plus one ten or even

867
00:45:57,040 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 1: money is his favorite at home, maybe it's a little

868
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 1: more concerning. But outside of the penalty, Fulham did not

869
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:05,360
Speaker 1: even attempt a shot with the next cuating over point one,

870
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:09,399
Speaker 1: like they allowed them to do absolutely nothing. So we're

871
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:12,520
Speaker 1: now in a situation where Fulham excuse me that Nottingam

872
00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 1: Forrest is top five and Expectacle is allowed their second

873
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 1: and final third of box entry conversion really allowed, which

874
00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:20,279
Speaker 1: tells me that they're closing off the middle of the

875
00:46:20,280 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 1: pitch and just not allowing you to play through there.

876
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 1: So that means that you're going to be in a

877
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 1: situation where if you remember last season when Chelsea was

878
00:46:28,680 --> 00:46:32,440
Speaker 1: was kind of struggling, it was because teams were just

879
00:46:32,880 --> 00:46:34,760
Speaker 1: letting them try to cross the ball into the box

880
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:37,279
Speaker 1: and they just didn't have very many aerial threats to

881
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:38,919
Speaker 1: be able to get on the end of those, and

882
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:42,880
Speaker 1: that's why they struggled offensively. The same can apply here.

883
00:46:43,040 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 1: I mean, I mean nodding in Forest has allowed the

884
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:47,879
Speaker 1: second fewest crosses into their penalty area, so I think

885
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:49,320
Speaker 1: this is a great spot for Nodding Forest. If you

886
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:52,240
Speaker 1: remember last year, noting in Forest beat Chelsea at Stanford Bridge,

887
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:54,719
Speaker 1: I mean they really you know, if you look at

888
00:46:54,719 --> 00:46:57,839
Speaker 1: the final numbers, they did a very good job defending them,

889
00:46:57,920 --> 00:47:00,800
Speaker 1: and they hit them in transition a couple times. Chelsea's

890
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:03,880
Speaker 1: press really hasn't been as effective as we would imagine

891
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 1: with how aggressive they're playing under MORESCA tenth and passed

892
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:09,680
Speaker 1: per defensive action fourteenth and forcing opponents to turn the

893
00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:13,239
Speaker 1: ball over in dangerous areas. So great spot here for

894
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:16,280
Speaker 1: Nottingham Forest. Love them. I'm with Sam, I'm with Michael.

895
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 1: I love them plus one plus one ten.

896
00:47:21,040 --> 00:47:24,000
Speaker 4: Acid Villa Manchester United next. I think that's some merrit.

897
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:27,000
Speaker 4: When you look at the the two teams playing, this

898
00:47:27,120 --> 00:47:29,320
Speaker 4: probably is the headliner for the weekend, but there really

899
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:33,719
Speaker 4: is no no clear one. Villas plus one twenty five

900
00:47:33,719 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 4: at Villa Park, United traveling plus one ninety to draw

901
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:39,600
Speaker 4: is plus two seventy. Eric ten Hag came out this

902
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:42,560
Speaker 4: weekend and I think Equasi guaranteed that United would win

903
00:47:42,600 --> 00:47:45,760
Speaker 4: another trophy because that's I think the quote, I'll.

904
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:47,120
Speaker 1: Keep his job though they could they could finish in

905
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:50,280
Speaker 1: eleventh place, but if he wins the Europa League Man

906
00:47:50,440 --> 00:47:51,160
Speaker 1: or the League Cup.

907
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:59,839
Speaker 4: They are a weird team, this United side. They went

908
00:47:59,840 --> 00:48:03,319
Speaker 4: to that Tottenham game with an even goal differential five

909
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:06,360
Speaker 4: goals scored five against. Obviously they lost three nils, so

910
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 4: it's now sitting at minus three. But the offensive numbers

911
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:13,439
Speaker 4: need to improve, right like they the underlying metrics show

912
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:15,640
Speaker 4: it like this team should be scoring more goals than

913
00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:22,960
Speaker 4: they have. But then again, like the funkiness of this

914
00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:26,759
Speaker 4: United side, and not just this season, but over the

915
00:48:26,800 --> 00:48:29,839
Speaker 4: course of the last handful of years, kind of makes

916
00:48:29,880 --> 00:48:32,759
Speaker 4: me think, oh, maybe they just won't because this is

917
00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 4: just a weird team and they're heavily flawed, and I

918
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:39,919
Speaker 4: think that this Villa attack could pick them apart here

919
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:42,400
Speaker 4: and we could look at another score line that's not

920
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:47,400
Speaker 4: too dissimilar to what we saw from this weekend, especially

921
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:50,319
Speaker 4: with Villain knowing like they've got to shape themselves up

922
00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:52,360
Speaker 4: in the back, like they've got to be better, and

923
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 4: you'd assume that they'd improve a little bit after shipping

924
00:48:56,680 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 4: two goals to Ipswich and blowing that opportunity to get

925
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:03,399
Speaker 4: three points. I think the price at home on Villa

926
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:05,840
Speaker 4: is fine and plus one twenty five beach. I just

927
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:07,359
Speaker 4: don't think I'd go much further than that.

928
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:11,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, So it's interesting right because we are recording this

929
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 1: before aston Villa plays Bayern Munich, which I think is

930
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:15,840
Speaker 1: going to be a very important litanus test for aston

931
00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 1: Villa because they haven't really played anybody difficult to begin

932
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 1: the season. Arsenal's been their most difficult match. They were

933
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:22,840
Speaker 1: pretty good in that match, but that was also the

934
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:26,040
Speaker 1: second match of the season. I think that aston Villa

935
00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 1: the price maybe could get a little bit better here

936
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:31,120
Speaker 1: at home. They've obviously been really good at home. Like

937
00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:33,440
Speaker 1: their struggles last season came away from They had a

938
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:36,120
Speaker 1: minus nine expected old differential away from home plus twelve

939
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:38,720
Speaker 1: at home. And if you remember when they played United,

940
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:40,239
Speaker 1: I think it was the first or second match, I

941
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:42,640
Speaker 1: can't remember, but they went up to nothing and I

942
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:45,719
Speaker 1: just kept playing their high line, Like they could have

943
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:48,360
Speaker 1: just sat back and what you know, and play played

944
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:51,799
Speaker 1: a low defensive line. United would have not even sniffed them.

945
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 1: But United just kept playing off of their back line

946
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:56,400
Speaker 1: and they end up scoring three goals. So that kind

947
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:57,840
Speaker 1: of goes along lines with two of the bests that

948
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 1: I'm making here, like over three A plus one oh five.

949
00:50:00,000 --> 00:50:03,680
Speaker 1: I think United's defensive structure right now is still horrible.

950
00:50:04,520 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 1: If you don't believe me, just go watch the first

951
00:50:06,520 --> 00:50:08,799
Speaker 1: goal that Tottenham scored against them before the red card

952
00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 1: even happened. I mean, even before the red card happened,

953
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:14,600
Speaker 1: Todham had already taken twelve shots against United. Like this

954
00:50:14,640 --> 00:50:18,319
Speaker 1: is still a very very bad team. Ugarte is the

955
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:21,440
Speaker 1: guy who didn't track Van Deven on that big run

956
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:23,640
Speaker 1: which allowed him to go and just cross the ball

957
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:25,799
Speaker 1: for an easy goal, So he's not going to save

958
00:50:25,840 --> 00:50:30,040
Speaker 1: their midfield. Their press still isn't that effective, so how

959
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:32,759
Speaker 1: are they going to effectively press aston Villa's build up

960
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 1: and really cause them any sorts of problems, you know.

961
00:50:36,440 --> 00:50:38,200
Speaker 1: The worrying thing here for me and I like the

962
00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:40,799
Speaker 1: price on aston Villa, but really I protected myself with

963
00:50:40,840 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 1: over three goals as well. Is if you know, the

964
00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:45,759
Speaker 1: match that keeps coming back to my head is when

965
00:50:45,920 --> 00:50:49,480
Speaker 1: United played Brighton and Brighton played that very high defensive

966
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:51,879
Speaker 1: line and United was able to actually get in behind

967
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:54,239
Speaker 1: it and create a lot of chances. So that is

968
00:50:54,280 --> 00:50:56,319
Speaker 1: the only thing that concerns me here for aston Villa,

969
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 1: but they are at home. It's a cheap price. They

970
00:50:59,120 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 1: do have an extra day red United has to travel

971
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:04,279
Speaker 1: to Portugal to play Porto on Thursday. I did see

972
00:51:04,320 --> 00:51:06,440
Speaker 1: a quote from Eric tent Hawk basically just saying, hey,

973
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:08,800
Speaker 1: trust the process, Like we have to trust the process.

974
00:51:08,920 --> 00:51:10,800
Speaker 1: The process is stunk for a year and a half,

975
00:51:11,000 --> 00:51:13,080
Speaker 1: so maybe we don't trust the process and maybe we

976
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:15,480
Speaker 1: change things up. And I'm also gonna call one more thing.

977
00:51:15,520 --> 00:51:17,799
Speaker 1: I think you know, they say that they're not going

978
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:22,200
Speaker 1: to fire him if this bad run continues and they

979
00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:25,640
Speaker 1: eventually do sack him. The reason they hired rud Van

980
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:28,319
Speaker 1: Misselroy to be their assistant was to eventually take over

981
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:30,319
Speaker 1: for ten HOWK, That's what I'm gonna call it's gonna happen,

982
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:33,759
Speaker 1: so they can float, Gareth Salagate, they can float. They

983
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:35,600
Speaker 1: saw they float a agry out there, which I think

984
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:38,319
Speaker 1: would actually be a terrific signing for them because they

985
00:51:38,360 --> 00:51:41,439
Speaker 1: need some type of defensive structure. So yeah, good price

986
00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:43,279
Speaker 1: here in aston Villa. I have then projected minus one

987
00:51:43,360 --> 00:51:45,319
Speaker 1: ten and I also like over three goals at plus

988
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:45,839
Speaker 1: one oh five.

989
00:51:48,120 --> 00:51:50,640
Speaker 5: If you know it loves to Porto and then to

990
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:52,000
Speaker 5: Villa Jerecono get sucked.

991
00:51:53,719 --> 00:51:56,319
Speaker 1: They said this week that there is no there's no conversations,

992
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 1: so stacking him so I would no, I don't know

993
00:51:58,520 --> 00:51:59,440
Speaker 1: what's going on.

994
00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:04,200
Speaker 4: I would say yes, but this is this is that

995
00:52:04,239 --> 00:52:07,280
Speaker 4: following like the normal path. I know that he should

996
00:52:07,320 --> 00:52:08,080
Speaker 4: have situations.

997
00:52:08,360 --> 00:52:10,759
Speaker 1: He should have already been gone a long time ago.

998
00:52:11,160 --> 00:52:16,080
Speaker 5: Should age agout.

999
00:52:14,480 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 4: Here, Big Sam still out there. David Moyes can come back.

1000
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:21,359
Speaker 1: I would love to see a legry though, if they

1001
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:24,240
Speaker 1: if they bringing a leg I think that would be amazing.

1002
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:27,719
Speaker 5: I think you're right there with with vanished Troy. It

1003
00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:31,960
Speaker 5: feels like he would step in into him charge and

1004
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:34,839
Speaker 5: then he would just completely switch things up. They start

1005
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:37,279
Speaker 5: playing attacking football. The fans with boy In and then

1006
00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:39,759
Speaker 5: it's just already made replacement. So I do get that

1007
00:52:39,840 --> 00:52:43,560
Speaker 5: as well. Looking at this game on the weekend, I've

1008
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:48,280
Speaker 5: actually gone against bj which I've learned over the past

1009
00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:52,439
Speaker 5: is probably not it's I was going to say, isn't

1010
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:55,560
Speaker 5: isn't two wise, But I've actually I've got under the

1011
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:58,799
Speaker 5: under three point zero go line down And I know

1012
00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:01,840
Speaker 5: it's a little bit scary becau because of well because

1013
00:53:01,880 --> 00:53:04,759
Speaker 5: I watched United versus Tottenham at the weekend which was

1014
00:53:04,880 --> 00:53:10,000
Speaker 5: just outrageous. But my thinking here is that both teams

1015
00:53:10,120 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 5: are in Europe. Villa got seismic Champions League tie. This like,

1016
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:20,400
Speaker 5: these nights are what they've been craving for years and

1017
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:24,040
Speaker 5: years against one of the you know, the European superpowers

1018
00:53:24,080 --> 00:53:26,680
Speaker 5: in Bayern Munich. This is the match for them. This

1019
00:53:26,719 --> 00:53:29,560
Speaker 5: is what they've you know, been waiting for and craving.

1020
00:53:29,680 --> 00:53:34,480
Speaker 5: So in terms of their energy stores and concentration levels,

1021
00:53:34,560 --> 00:53:37,279
Speaker 5: I just wonder how much this match tonight is going

1022
00:53:37,320 --> 00:53:40,799
Speaker 5: to zap from them. United away in Porto, they're not

1023
00:53:40,960 --> 00:53:44,520
Speaker 5: the Porto of yesteryear, but you know exactly what the

1024
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:47,160
Speaker 5: what that match is going to be like, It's going

1025
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:49,319
Speaker 5: to be very scrappy. It's going to be a few

1026
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 5: yellow cards, i'd probably guess. So that's going to take

1027
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:57,600
Speaker 5: a bit from United too. And I've deliberated about this

1028
00:53:57,680 --> 00:54:01,239
Speaker 5: a lot, and I think, most importantly after the weekend,

1029
00:54:01,440 --> 00:54:05,120
Speaker 5: with his job very much on the line again ten,

1030
00:54:05,239 --> 00:54:08,400
Speaker 5: how we want to avoid defeat here first and foremost.

1031
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:12,680
Speaker 5: I think he's going to set up to contain Villa

1032
00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:16,840
Speaker 5: for large spells if they can, especially in the opening stages.

1033
00:54:19,600 --> 00:54:22,640
Speaker 5: But the more I think about it, like the more

1034
00:54:22,960 --> 00:54:25,880
Speaker 5: the Tottenham game last week just rings around my mind,

1035
00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 5: and then I start veering over to the Villa to

1036
00:54:29,560 --> 00:54:33,560
Speaker 5: win price, but I'm just not so sure with those

1037
00:54:33,600 --> 00:54:36,440
Speaker 5: European commitments. If both teams had a straight run to

1038
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:39,800
Speaker 5: the weekend and the prices where what they are now,

1039
00:54:40,239 --> 00:54:42,600
Speaker 5: I'd just be jumping on Villa straight win. But I'm

1040
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:44,480
Speaker 5: just not so sure. I'm kind of on the fence.

1041
00:54:44,560 --> 00:54:48,080
Speaker 5: So under three goes and the free agent goes at

1042
00:54:48,160 --> 00:54:49,880
Speaker 5: minus one to five is where I ended up. Are

1043
00:54:49,880 --> 00:54:54,040
Speaker 5: we going to see four gos after you know midweek? Maybe,

1044
00:54:54,280 --> 00:54:55,960
Speaker 5: but that's why I've ended up.

1045
00:54:58,080 --> 00:54:59,520
Speaker 4: Now. You do see goals in the next one though,

1046
00:54:59,560 --> 00:55:02,920
Speaker 4: Sam Brain and Spurs that makes sense. I think Brighton

1047
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:05,359
Speaker 4: plus one eighty five here at Homes Spurs plus one twenty.

1048
00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:07,719
Speaker 4: The draws plus two ninety five numbers are a little

1049
00:55:07,719 --> 00:55:11,080
Speaker 4: bit skewed because of the wallopping they put on United,

1050
00:55:11,719 --> 00:55:14,839
Speaker 4: but Tottenham's underlying metrics now just look really good right

1051
00:55:14,840 --> 00:55:17,880
Speaker 4: Their second in terms of expected goal difference per ninety

1052
00:55:17,880 --> 00:55:21,839
Speaker 4: in the Premier League. Their plus seven goal difference is

1053
00:55:21,960 --> 00:55:25,640
Speaker 4: not too far off of their expected goal difference. We

1054
00:55:25,719 --> 00:55:28,839
Speaker 4: talked about it before They're United game like, these are

1055
00:55:28,840 --> 00:55:31,520
Speaker 4: the two kind of trickiest teams to handicap, and they

1056
00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:33,879
Speaker 4: were playing one another, we all stayed away. I think

1057
00:55:33,920 --> 00:55:36,720
Speaker 4: if you had made us pick a side to bet

1058
00:55:36,760 --> 00:55:38,560
Speaker 4: to win that match, we would have all went with

1059
00:55:38,600 --> 00:55:41,200
Speaker 4: Tottenham at least That's what I was thinking, and left

1060
00:55:41,200 --> 00:55:44,319
Speaker 4: myself kicking myself for not doing it. But they've now

1061
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:46,200
Speaker 4: got two wins on the spin after two losses on

1062
00:55:46,239 --> 00:55:51,040
Speaker 4: the spin. Six goals scored across those two across those

1063
00:55:51,080 --> 00:55:53,839
Speaker 4: two wins, Sam, and you're expecting Tottenham to be able

1064
00:55:53,840 --> 00:55:56,880
Speaker 4: to do their share of the heavy lifting here against

1065
00:55:56,920 --> 00:55:57,800
Speaker 4: Brighton's defense.

1066
00:55:58,680 --> 00:56:01,640
Speaker 5: At risk of repeating my but that Brighton highline was

1067
00:56:01,680 --> 00:56:04,320
Speaker 5: just so easy to play against last weekend. They made

1068
00:56:04,400 --> 00:56:08,560
Speaker 5: Chelsea look like prime Brazil could have been eightyer a halftime,

1069
00:56:08,680 --> 00:56:11,680
Speaker 5: genuinely eight to zero. So what do we think Tottenham

1070
00:56:11,719 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 5: is going to do on the weekend? Exactly the same

1071
00:56:14,760 --> 00:56:18,680
Speaker 5: if Brighton arrive and put in a similar performance and

1072
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:22,080
Speaker 5: approach the game similarly. The bookmakers agree there is two

1073
00:56:22,239 --> 00:56:24,239
Speaker 5: over three point five goal lines this weekend in the

1074
00:56:24,239 --> 00:56:27,680
Speaker 5: Premier League. One is Arsenal Best Southampton bookies expecting a

1075
00:56:27,719 --> 00:56:30,640
Speaker 5: batter in there, and the other that comes in Brighton

1076
00:56:30,719 --> 00:56:34,640
Speaker 5: versus Tottenham, and I cannot see anything other than goes here.

1077
00:56:35,280 --> 00:56:38,920
Speaker 5: I can't see how this thing doesn't rumble into a

1078
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:42,800
Speaker 5: back and forth type of encounter. Brighton versus Chelsea ended

1079
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:46,040
Speaker 5: is four point one six xg to Chelsea versus one

1080
00:56:46,080 --> 00:56:49,120
Speaker 5: point one one xg to Brighton. So if Spurs can

1081
00:56:49,160 --> 00:56:53,040
Speaker 5: get anywhere near that kind of output and Brighton can

1082
00:56:53,160 --> 00:56:55,760
Speaker 5: improve in the final third now they're back at the Amex,

1083
00:56:56,280 --> 00:56:58,680
Speaker 5: I think four goals is likely for me. I don't

1084
00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:01,319
Speaker 5: usually take this high of a goal line, but if

1085
00:57:01,360 --> 00:57:03,479
Speaker 5: I was to pick two teams in the Premier League

1086
00:57:03,560 --> 00:57:06,640
Speaker 5: right now for an over three point five goals pick,

1087
00:57:07,400 --> 00:57:11,600
Speaker 5: I think it would be this too. I think so, yeah,

1088
00:57:11,600 --> 00:57:14,600
Speaker 5: you mentioned it underlying numbers. Tottenham leads the way in

1089
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:16,800
Speaker 5: the Premier League. Thirteen point six to nine x G

1090
00:57:17,160 --> 00:57:19,160
Speaker 5: from six matches is what I've got in front of me.

1091
00:57:19,640 --> 00:57:21,680
Speaker 5: Bright in a good for a goal at home, of course,

1092
00:57:21,760 --> 00:57:24,480
Speaker 5: so I'm going to take the goal line although it

1093
00:57:24,560 --> 00:57:28,000
Speaker 5: is big over three point five goals at minus one

1094
00:57:28,000 --> 00:57:28,360
Speaker 5: oh one.

1095
00:57:31,440 --> 00:57:37,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's uh, it's Brighton's numbers are fascinating because if

1096
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:40,000
Speaker 1: you look at, you know, all of these underlying metrics

1097
00:57:40,040 --> 00:57:43,560
Speaker 1: because they've faced you know, teams like Ipswich and have

1098
00:57:43,680 --> 00:57:47,400
Speaker 1: dominated them and they obviously dominated everyone in the first match.

1099
00:57:47,440 --> 00:57:53,680
Speaker 1: They're actually allowing you can you can, you know, criticize

1100
00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:56,320
Speaker 1: the hrsler for high line all you want, but they've

1101
00:57:56,360 --> 00:58:00,760
Speaker 1: allowed the fewest final third entries, the fifth fewest entries

1102
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:03,720
Speaker 1: and in fact they're allowing the lowest to build up

1103
00:58:03,720 --> 00:58:06,840
Speaker 1: completion percentage of anybody. The problem is their nineteenth and

1104
00:58:06,840 --> 00:58:08,880
Speaker 1: final they're to box entry conversion rate, which tells me

1105
00:58:08,920 --> 00:58:11,200
Speaker 1: when you beat the high line, you're you're basically just

1106
00:58:11,240 --> 00:58:14,400
Speaker 1: walking into their penalty area, right, So that is the concern.

1107
00:58:14,440 --> 00:58:17,919
Speaker 1: You obviously look at brighton schedule. They you know, had

1108
00:58:18,480 --> 00:58:21,800
Speaker 1: they up a man against Arsenal for forty five minutes there. Again,

1109
00:58:21,800 --> 00:58:25,760
Speaker 1: they've been playing some of the bottom tier teams and

1110
00:58:25,800 --> 00:58:28,720
Speaker 1: then you watch you know what Chelsea did. It's hard,

1111
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:31,080
Speaker 1: like Sam said, it's hard to not think that Tottenham

1112
00:58:31,120 --> 00:58:34,760
Speaker 1: can do the exact same thing. So you know, Solonkey

1113
00:58:34,880 --> 00:58:37,000
Speaker 1: is obviously somebody that when he was at Bournemouth is

1114
00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:40,959
Speaker 1: very very skilled and making those runs off the back line.

1115
00:58:41,160 --> 00:58:43,120
Speaker 1: And I saw I saw tweet that I thought was

1116
00:58:43,160 --> 00:58:45,840
Speaker 1: kind of funny. It was just like the average positions

1117
00:58:46,000 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 1: of both of these teams are just going to be

1118
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:50,600
Speaker 1: right around the center circle when the game is done.

1119
00:58:50,760 --> 00:58:55,080
Speaker 1: So's it's gonna be a fun match. It will definitely

1120
00:58:55,120 --> 00:58:57,760
Speaker 1: be a lot of fun. I'm passing on it, like

1121
00:58:57,760 --> 00:59:00,240
Speaker 1: I have three and a half for goal projected for

1122
00:59:00,280 --> 00:59:03,320
Speaker 1: this one. But again that's also taking into a lot

1123
00:59:03,360 --> 00:59:06,920
Speaker 1: of how you know, low event matches were under deservey

1124
00:59:06,920 --> 00:59:08,720
Speaker 1: towards the end of last season, so you could may,

1125
00:59:08,840 --> 00:59:10,680
Speaker 1: I definitely make a case for the over here, and

1126
00:59:10,760 --> 00:59:12,240
Speaker 1: you know, if you want to have some fun, take

1127
00:59:12,240 --> 00:59:15,040
Speaker 1: the over. This is gonna be the most fun match.

1128
00:59:15,880 --> 00:59:20,919
Speaker 4: Yeah, definitely, and a good way to get us back

1129
00:59:20,960 --> 00:59:23,760
Speaker 4: to you BJ to take a little adventure across Europe.

1130
00:59:23,800 --> 00:59:26,000
Speaker 4: We are recording this on Wednesday afternoon, so there are

1131
00:59:26,000 --> 00:59:28,280
Speaker 4: some Champions League matches that still have to play out,

1132
00:59:28,320 --> 00:59:31,360
Speaker 4: but nonetheless take us through.

1133
00:59:31,920 --> 00:59:35,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's go Germany. Freiburg drawn no bett minus won

1134
00:59:35,480 --> 00:59:40,400
Speaker 1: ten against Verde Bremen over the weekend. Freiburg has been

1135
00:59:41,360 --> 00:59:44,920
Speaker 1: very unlucky defensively so far, to concede seven goals off

1136
00:59:44,920 --> 00:59:47,400
Speaker 1: a four and a half expected. Werder Bremen's offense has

1137
00:59:47,440 --> 00:59:50,280
Speaker 1: been completely non existent to begin the season, so I

1138
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:52,880
Speaker 1: think this is a pretty decent spot. If you're, you know,

1139
00:59:52,960 --> 00:59:55,600
Speaker 1: going as a straight pick them, it's you know, I

1140
00:59:55,640 --> 00:59:57,920
Speaker 1: have a little bit of value projected on Freiburg, have

1141
00:59:57,960 --> 01:00:01,760
Speaker 1: them closer to plus one thirty five, so I like them.

1142
01:00:02,720 --> 01:00:08,000
Speaker 1: Next up Vanetsia plus a half against Verona on Friday.

1143
01:00:08,880 --> 01:00:12,400
Speaker 1: For whatever reason, I don't I've been asked about Verona

1144
01:00:12,400 --> 01:00:14,360
Speaker 1: I think three times a season if I ever wanted

1145
01:00:14,360 --> 01:00:16,160
Speaker 1: to fit because I faded them a ton last season

1146
01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:18,640
Speaker 1: and they just continue to own me week after week,

1147
01:00:18,880 --> 01:00:20,800
Speaker 1: and I keep getting asked from people like, are you gonna,

1148
01:00:20,840 --> 01:00:23,480
Speaker 1: you know, go against Verona? I keep saying no, But

1149
01:00:23,560 --> 01:00:25,000
Speaker 1: I think this is the kind of this is the

1150
01:00:25,040 --> 01:00:28,120
Speaker 1: time to do it. Vanetsia had a really really good

1151
01:00:28,160 --> 01:00:31,400
Speaker 1: result against Jenowa two weeks ago. They've been playing a

1152
01:00:31,520 --> 01:00:34,920
Speaker 1: very very difficult schedule to begin Syria and Verona. It's

1153
01:00:34,960 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 1: kind of just the same story as it was last year.

1154
01:00:36,600 --> 01:00:39,280
Speaker 1: They can't create really anything offensively. They're averaging under one

1155
01:00:39,320 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 1: non penalty expectable for ninety minutes, so I really don't

1156
01:00:41,520 --> 01:00:45,880
Speaker 1: think they should be this big of a home favorite

1157
01:00:45,880 --> 01:00:49,160
Speaker 1: here against a Vanetsia team that has shown capabilities and

1158
01:00:49,240 --> 01:00:52,200
Speaker 1: had the best underlying metrics in the second division last season.

1159
01:00:52,560 --> 01:00:56,640
Speaker 1: And finally La Liga Alavas Barcelona, both teams of score

1160
01:00:56,680 --> 01:00:59,680
Speaker 1: at minus one forty. We've been over with Barcelona in

1161
01:00:59,680 --> 01:01:03,000
Speaker 1: the Champians League podcast, but essentially under Hanse Flick, they

1162
01:01:03,040 --> 01:01:06,840
Speaker 1: are an incredible offensive team and they are almost impossible

1163
01:01:07,160 --> 01:01:10,440
Speaker 1: to stop offensively. But because they're so aggressive, because they

1164
01:01:10,480 --> 01:01:14,200
Speaker 1: push so many guys forward, they leave themselves very very vulnerable.

1165
01:01:14,240 --> 01:01:17,440
Speaker 1: In transition. Alabas is a very very good mid table

1166
01:01:17,600 --> 01:01:19,840
Speaker 1: side in La Liga. You saw them come back against

1167
01:01:19,880 --> 01:01:22,080
Speaker 1: Real Madrid. They scored two goals against them, and I

1168
01:01:22,160 --> 01:01:23,880
Speaker 1: landed on both team to score as opposed to an

1169
01:01:23,840 --> 01:01:28,320
Speaker 1: Alabas plus one because the Barcelona offense just scares the

1170
01:01:28,360 --> 01:01:29,919
Speaker 1: living crap out of me, and it's going to scare

1171
01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:32,040
Speaker 1: the living crap out of me week after week after week.

1172
01:01:32,120 --> 01:01:34,000
Speaker 1: So fading them even though they are on the road

1173
01:01:34,040 --> 01:01:36,120
Speaker 1: in a bad spot coming off the champions legue after

1174
01:01:36,160 --> 01:01:39,280
Speaker 1: beating Young Boys five nil, I think both team to

1175
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 1: score at minus one to forty is a little short. Obviously,

1176
01:01:42,520 --> 01:01:44,960
Speaker 1: Terstaggan is out for the season as well for Barcelona,

1177
01:01:45,040 --> 01:01:48,360
Speaker 1: so you have what's maybe Chesney right now or you know,

1178
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:51,000
Speaker 1: a backup in there. So I think there's a little

1179
01:01:51,000 --> 01:01:53,680
Speaker 1: bit of value on bolteam to score in allabase in Barcelona.

1180
01:01:54,000 --> 01:01:57,760
Speaker 4: And that brings us to the Championship Sam, where once

1181
01:01:57,800 --> 01:02:01,960
Speaker 4: again we're focusing on the our guy as they traveled.

1182
01:02:01,600 --> 01:02:05,520
Speaker 1: Hug which are a huge win against Luton, huge.

1183
01:02:05,360 --> 01:02:08,720
Speaker 4: Winning Sluton, decent showing against Burnley in the midweek, and

1184
01:02:08,760 --> 01:02:12,160
Speaker 4: now we head up to Blackburn. What do you got?

1185
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:16,280
Speaker 5: Very good win against Luton, a really dodgy looking penalty

1186
01:02:16,320 --> 01:02:19,439
Speaker 5: against Burnley, not really sure on that Burnie one one Neil,

1187
01:02:19,480 --> 01:02:22,120
Speaker 5: and then we come into Blimmer first Blackburn on the weekend.

1188
01:02:22,200 --> 01:02:24,640
Speaker 5: I'm going for over two point seventy five Asian goals

1189
01:02:24,640 --> 01:02:28,600
Speaker 5: at minus one eighteen Argala starting to work themselves into

1190
01:02:28,640 --> 01:02:31,680
Speaker 5: some form at Home Park, which obviously I'm thrilled with

1191
01:02:31,720 --> 01:02:34,000
Speaker 5: and it's a venue where they've been so impressive out

1192
01:02:34,000 --> 01:02:37,040
Speaker 5: for a number of seasons. Now we've seen against Luton

1193
01:02:37,080 --> 01:02:40,040
Speaker 5: and Sunderland, two of the better teams in the division,

1194
01:02:40,040 --> 01:02:43,320
Speaker 5: that they can create and school goes. Rami al Hajj

1195
01:02:43,480 --> 01:02:45,919
Speaker 5: started his first game against Luton in the ten row,

1196
01:02:46,040 --> 01:02:49,200
Speaker 5: looking really tidy, more than happy in receiving the ball

1197
01:02:49,280 --> 01:02:52,240
Speaker 5: linking play, meaning there wasn't an over alliance on the

1198
01:02:52,280 --> 01:02:54,440
Speaker 5: wingers which I mentioned a few weeks ago, and in

1199
01:02:54,480 --> 01:02:57,160
Speaker 5: turn that really gave Luton a few headaches. He looked

1200
01:02:57,240 --> 01:03:00,400
Speaker 5: really bright and we desperately needed that kind of figure

1201
01:03:00,440 --> 01:03:04,080
Speaker 5: in there. So with that attacking mindset at home, it

1202
01:03:04,160 --> 01:03:07,200
Speaker 5: also leaves Wayne Rooney's Green susceptible. At the other end,

1203
01:03:07,440 --> 01:03:10,200
Speaker 5: both teams will definitely have chances. There is no doubt

1204
01:03:10,200 --> 01:03:12,360
Speaker 5: about that. We're going to see plenty of a tent

1205
01:03:12,440 --> 01:03:14,520
Speaker 5: from either side and we just need both to find

1206
01:03:14,520 --> 01:03:17,200
Speaker 5: the net. I'll quickly run through the shot totals of

1207
01:03:17,600 --> 01:03:21,840
Speaker 5: our goals games this season Lowton nineteen to sixteen, Sunderland

1208
01:03:21,840 --> 01:03:25,600
Speaker 5: thirteen to seventeen, Stoke fifteen to fifteen, the whole sixteen

1209
01:03:25,640 --> 01:03:28,360
Speaker 5: to fourteen. I could go on. All the numbers suggest

1210
01:03:28,440 --> 01:03:31,480
Speaker 5: there will be ghost in this game, so obviously it

1211
01:03:31,480 --> 01:03:34,480
Speaker 5: will probably be Neil Neil because I've gone pretty heavy

1212
01:03:34,480 --> 01:03:37,280
Speaker 5: on this. So blim of us Blackburn over two point

1213
01:03:37,320 --> 01:03:40,200
Speaker 5: sventy five goals minus one eighteen love it.

1214
01:03:40,280 --> 01:03:42,960
Speaker 4: You were talking about how you rushed to see the

1215
01:03:42,960 --> 01:03:46,200
Speaker 4: everdence score line every weekend, and me and BJ now

1216
01:03:46,960 --> 01:03:50,600
Speaker 4: every year every time the Championship players got to see.

1217
01:03:50,600 --> 01:03:54,720
Speaker 4: How that was a screamer to begin the match.

1218
01:03:54,800 --> 01:03:55,480
Speaker 1: Man, that's amazing.

1219
01:03:55,680 --> 01:03:59,080
Speaker 4: Good game, beautiful team too, with the kit and the

1220
01:03:59,120 --> 01:03:59,560
Speaker 4: bedge and.

1221
01:04:01,160 --> 01:04:01,600
Speaker 5: Just class.

1222
01:04:01,720 --> 01:04:03,400
Speaker 1: Correct me, current me if I'm wrong, Sam, I believe

1223
01:04:03,440 --> 01:04:06,720
Speaker 1: Plymouth is the largest city to never have a team

1224
01:04:06,760 --> 01:04:08,320
Speaker 1: in the Premier League or at least get to the

1225
01:04:08,320 --> 01:04:10,040
Speaker 1: top flight since like nineteen ninety.

1226
01:04:10,080 --> 01:04:16,440
Speaker 5: Is that correct sounds I was already correct on depressing, Yeah, because.

1227
01:04:16,240 --> 01:04:19,200
Speaker 1: What there's about two million people in Plymouth somewhere around there.

1228
01:04:20,080 --> 01:04:23,320
Speaker 5: No, it's it's not that big. There's maybe like three

1229
01:04:23,360 --> 01:04:26,240
Speaker 5: inchde thousand, But I suspect most of the other big

1230
01:04:26,240 --> 01:04:27,880
Speaker 5: teams have been in the top flight.

1231
01:04:28,000 --> 01:04:30,920
Speaker 4: So okay, sorry, I've read that.

1232
01:04:30,880 --> 01:04:34,000
Speaker 5: One, Yeah, and in the podcast on a hid.

1233
01:04:36,640 --> 01:04:40,240
Speaker 4: But that will change maybe maybe brings them essentially.

1234
01:04:40,640 --> 01:04:43,480
Speaker 6: If you've ever thought about becoming an Action Pro subscriber,

1235
01:04:43,680 --> 01:04:46,680
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1236
01:04:46,720 --> 01:04:49,760
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1237
01:04:50,000 --> 01:04:54,800
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1238
01:04:54,840 --> 01:04:59,000
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1239
01:04:59,160 --> 01:05:03,080
Speaker 6: Analytics team Shaan Zarillo. He has projections for baseball, Colin

1240
01:05:03,120 --> 01:05:06,680
Speaker 6: Wilson and Stuckey for college football, and now Sean Kerner's

1241
01:05:06,760 --> 01:05:10,560
Speaker 6: NFL anytime touchdown and first touchdown projections are part of

1242
01:05:10,600 --> 01:05:13,320
Speaker 6: Action Pro, so you can find the biggest edges across

1243
01:05:13,320 --> 01:05:18,320
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1244
01:05:18,640 --> 01:05:22,320
Speaker 6: Pod twenty to get an extra twenty dollars off. That's

1245
01:05:22,480 --> 01:05:27,520
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1246
01:05:27,720 --> 01:05:32,040
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1247
01:05:32,120 --> 01:05:34,800
Speaker 6: follow the link in this episode's description.

1248
01:05:35,440 --> 01:05:39,320
Speaker 4: Okay, Underdog Parlay time three picks. These ones are going

1249
01:05:39,360 --> 01:05:43,880
Speaker 4: to come out to a hefty price two hundred and

1250
01:05:43,920 --> 01:05:47,280
Speaker 4: fifty three ish to one on this one, Sam, you

1251
01:05:47,280 --> 01:05:48,000
Speaker 4: can get it started.

1252
01:05:49,000 --> 01:05:51,440
Speaker 5: Yeah, buzzing to get this in the underdog higri at

1253
01:05:51,480 --> 01:05:54,360
Speaker 5: plus five to fifty, I'm going for Gabrielle anytime score.

1254
01:05:54,600 --> 01:05:57,200
Speaker 5: Southampton's set piece numbers in the Premier League this season

1255
01:05:57,320 --> 01:05:59,840
Speaker 5: or the worst of all twenty top flight sides from

1256
01:05:59,840 --> 01:06:03,600
Speaker 5: an underlying numbers perspective, Southampton have allowed three point eight

1257
01:06:03,640 --> 01:06:07,320
Speaker 5: two xga from set pieces alone in just six games.

1258
01:06:07,640 --> 01:06:09,439
Speaker 5: And if I know that, then you can be one

1259
01:06:09,520 --> 01:06:13,120
Speaker 5: thousand percent. And that Arsenal's set piece coaches do too,

1260
01:06:13,480 --> 01:06:15,960
Speaker 5: so they'll be looking for a way to exploit this

1261
01:06:16,240 --> 01:06:20,320
Speaker 5: suspect defense arriving at the Emirates and who's set to

1262
01:06:20,360 --> 01:06:23,560
Speaker 5: profit from an Arsenal set piece. It is their lofty

1263
01:06:23,680 --> 01:06:27,520
Speaker 5: central defender Gabrielle at plus five point fifty to score anytime.

1264
01:06:27,560 --> 01:06:29,720
Speaker 5: I think it's a pretty big price we saw against

1265
01:06:29,760 --> 01:06:33,120
Speaker 5: Manchester City, but Kylesaker will put a delivery on a

1266
01:06:33,160 --> 01:06:36,280
Speaker 5: sixpence and it almost feels like there's some kind of

1267
01:06:36,760 --> 01:06:40,520
Speaker 5: magnetic pool towards Gabrielle. He's always in the vicinity. He's

1268
01:06:40,560 --> 01:06:43,840
Speaker 5: always a threat no matter what the opposition employs to

1269
01:06:43,880 --> 01:06:46,120
Speaker 5: try and stop him. So i'd also have a few

1270
01:06:46,120 --> 01:06:48,880
Speaker 5: pennies on first and last Ghostcore at eighteen to one two.

1271
01:06:51,040 --> 01:06:51,480
Speaker 1: I love it.

1272
01:06:53,040 --> 01:06:54,840
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go Crystal Palace. I was the being in

1273
01:06:54,880 --> 01:06:56,880
Speaker 4: between Everton and Palace on the spot, but we're all

1274
01:06:56,880 --> 01:06:58,480
Speaker 4: going big, so I'm not going to miss out on

1275
01:06:58,520 --> 01:07:02,320
Speaker 4: the Palace plus five hundred at home to Liverpool. The

1276
01:07:02,360 --> 01:07:06,880
Speaker 4: spot for Liverpool is really tricky kind of football in

1277
01:07:06,920 --> 01:07:09,640
Speaker 4: these legs. Now. They traveled to Selhurst Park on a

1278
01:07:09,680 --> 01:07:12,800
Speaker 4: really quick turnaround seven thirty am Eastern time kickcop. They're

1279
01:07:12,840 --> 01:07:15,640
Speaker 4: playing Wednesday afternoon in the Champions League against the Bologna

1280
01:07:15,680 --> 01:07:17,760
Speaker 4: team I think could cause them some issues or at

1281
01:07:17,800 --> 01:07:20,880
Speaker 4: least make it difficult. So this Palace team has more

1282
01:07:20,920 --> 01:07:24,120
Speaker 4: to it than I think meets the eye. So give

1283
01:07:24,120 --> 01:07:26,400
Speaker 4: me the five to one in Palace to get us

1284
01:07:26,400 --> 01:07:26,560
Speaker 4: to you.

1285
01:07:26,680 --> 01:07:31,040
Speaker 1: BJ yep plus five point fifty on Nottingham Forest against Chelsea.

1286
01:07:31,720 --> 01:07:34,320
Speaker 1: Chelsea's been really good their last two matches, but they've

1287
01:07:34,360 --> 01:07:37,120
Speaker 1: played two of the worst defensive teams. You know. They

1288
01:07:37,200 --> 01:07:39,120
Speaker 1: played west Ham, who is non existent right now, and

1289
01:07:39,120 --> 01:07:41,760
Speaker 1: Brighton played an incredibly high line which just fed right

1290
01:07:41,800 --> 01:07:44,200
Speaker 1: into what Chelsea does best. You know, Chelsea at their

1291
01:07:44,240 --> 01:07:46,320
Speaker 1: core is a better transition team than they are building

1292
01:07:46,320 --> 01:07:48,840
Speaker 1: out of the back and Nottingham Forest when they went

1293
01:07:48,880 --> 01:07:51,040
Speaker 1: to Chelsea last season, they won the match because they

1294
01:07:51,040 --> 01:07:53,560
Speaker 1: were able to sit in a very compact defensive structure

1295
01:07:53,800 --> 01:07:55,640
Speaker 1: and force Chelsea to try to beat them with crosses,

1296
01:07:55,640 --> 01:07:58,320
Speaker 1: and Chelsea just doesn't have aerial threats that can get

1297
01:07:58,320 --> 01:08:00,440
Speaker 1: on the end of those type of crosses. For US

1298
01:08:00,520 --> 01:08:03,760
Speaker 1: is allowing the lowest x G per shot of anybody

1299
01:08:03,800 --> 01:08:06,240
Speaker 1: in the Premier League right now. Morgan gives widest back

1300
01:08:06,240 --> 01:08:09,520
Speaker 1: after suspension. They have some good transition pieces. Chris Wood

1301
01:08:09,520 --> 01:08:11,480
Speaker 1: has been in really good form this season over a

1302
01:08:11,520 --> 01:08:14,480
Speaker 1: point seven XG per ninety minute scoring rate. So I

1303
01:08:14,560 --> 01:08:16,559
Speaker 1: think the pieces are there and I think Chelsea is

1304
01:08:16,680 --> 01:08:18,400
Speaker 1: a little bit over valid here. So like not even

1305
01:08:18,400 --> 01:08:19,240
Speaker 1: forced plus five.

1306
01:08:19,120 --> 01:08:22,840
Speaker 4: Thirty like I said, two hundred and fifty three to

1307
01:08:22,840 --> 01:08:26,439
Speaker 4: one on that one feels good too, feels like good,

1308
01:08:26,680 --> 01:08:29,120
Speaker 4: feels like a banker, as they would say over in

1309
01:08:29,160 --> 01:08:32,920
Speaker 4: your neck of the woods. Sam all Right bets bets

1310
01:08:32,960 --> 01:08:35,400
Speaker 4: for match Week seven of the Premier League, taking us

1311
01:08:35,479 --> 01:08:39,200
Speaker 4: into another international BREAKBJ you can go first, let's.

1312
01:08:39,000 --> 01:08:42,160
Speaker 1: Go Bournemouth plus one ten on the road against Leicester.

1313
01:08:42,320 --> 01:08:45,000
Speaker 1: You know everything that applied to what Bournemouth was going

1314
01:08:45,040 --> 01:08:47,800
Speaker 1: to do against Southampton, kind of applies here against Leicester,

1315
01:08:47,880 --> 01:08:50,120
Speaker 1: and you know, lester is still trying to maintain what

1316
01:08:50,160 --> 01:08:52,120
Speaker 1: they were in the Championship last season, which is a

1317
01:08:52,120 --> 01:08:54,080
Speaker 1: team that is able to build out of the back,

1318
01:08:54,120 --> 01:08:56,559
Speaker 1: that is able to control matches. That's a death sentence

1319
01:08:56,600 --> 01:08:59,600
Speaker 1: here against Bournemouth, who is forcing opponents into turning the

1320
01:08:59,600 --> 01:09:02,360
Speaker 1: ball over in dangerous areas at the highest rate of

1321
01:09:02,400 --> 01:09:04,439
Speaker 1: anybody in the Premier League right now. Those will create

1322
01:09:04,479 --> 01:09:08,080
Speaker 1: easy transition opportunities and the lesser defenses actually have some

1323
01:09:08,200 --> 01:09:11,000
Speaker 1: pretty concerning results here. They just conceded well over four

1324
01:09:11,040 --> 01:09:14,400
Speaker 1: expected goals to Arsenal, and overall for the season they

1325
01:09:14,400 --> 01:09:18,000
Speaker 1: are seventeenth in final third to box century conversion rate allowed.

1326
01:09:18,320 --> 01:09:21,080
Speaker 1: That's really concerning because if you are going to defend

1327
01:09:21,120 --> 01:09:22,800
Speaker 1: in a low defensive block, you have to be able

1328
01:09:22,800 --> 01:09:24,720
Speaker 1: to keep teams out of your penalty area. They're also

1329
01:09:24,720 --> 01:09:27,439
Speaker 1: aloing a very high number of crosses formos completed, the

1330
01:09:27,439 --> 01:09:29,519
Speaker 1: third most process of anybody in the Premier League. So

1331
01:09:29,920 --> 01:09:31,880
Speaker 1: really good spot here for Bournemouth. It looks like a

1332
01:09:31,880 --> 01:09:33,880
Speaker 1: by high type of situation, but I think there's still

1333
01:09:33,880 --> 01:09:35,439
Speaker 1: some value here on the cherry, So like them at

1334
01:09:35,439 --> 01:09:36,080
Speaker 1: plus one ten.

1335
01:09:36,400 --> 01:09:41,040
Speaker 4: I'm going to go with Aston Villa against Manchester United

1336
01:09:41,080 --> 01:09:42,680
Speaker 4: right now plus one twenty five. We'll see where this

1337
01:09:42,720 --> 01:09:46,560
Speaker 4: number goes if Terry Villa plays fired. But I stylistically,

1338
01:09:46,680 --> 01:09:49,160
Speaker 4: I have no concerns about this matchup for Villa. They've

1339
01:09:49,160 --> 01:09:51,560
Speaker 4: been a little leaky and suspect in defense, but I

1340
01:09:51,600 --> 01:09:54,080
Speaker 4: think that their attack should be able to overwhelm any

1341
01:09:54,360 --> 01:09:57,840
Speaker 4: and even more suspect defense in Manchester United, which just

1342
01:09:57,840 --> 01:10:00,800
Speaker 4: hasn't got itself sorted once again to see isn't. So

1343
01:10:00,840 --> 01:10:03,439
Speaker 4: I'll look to play Villa at home plus one twenty

1344
01:10:03,520 --> 01:10:04,960
Speaker 4: five for better Sam, what do you get?

1345
01:10:05,120 --> 01:10:07,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, full disclosure in my best bet was actually going

1346
01:10:07,400 --> 01:10:09,479
Speaker 5: to be Bournemouth, but it was stolen from me. So

1347
01:10:09,520 --> 01:10:12,040
Speaker 5: I'm going for over three point five goals in Brighton

1348
01:10:12,120 --> 01:10:15,200
Speaker 5: versus Tottenham as my next best. It's a big line,

1349
01:10:15,280 --> 01:10:18,559
Speaker 5: but I just can't see how theirs not goes galor

1350
01:10:18,680 --> 01:10:21,400
Speaker 5: in this game. If Brighton continue with that high line,

1351
01:10:21,400 --> 01:10:24,280
Speaker 5: which they probably will, we have two sides here that

1352
01:10:24,439 --> 01:10:27,840
Speaker 5: will have a right good go after Spurs has last

1353
01:10:27,840 --> 01:10:30,160
Speaker 5: away they in Manchester where they rapped up four point

1354
01:10:30,160 --> 01:10:34,280
Speaker 5: five nine xg in the backyard of fellow Top four hopefuls.

1355
01:10:34,640 --> 01:10:37,920
Speaker 5: They'll bound into this one pretty confident of leaving their mark,

1356
01:10:38,000 --> 01:10:40,160
Speaker 5: and Tottenham now leads the way and expected goes in

1357
01:10:40,200 --> 01:10:43,360
Speaker 5: the Premier League more than City, more than Liverpool if

1358
01:10:43,360 --> 01:10:45,519
Speaker 5: they can keep their end of the bargain here. I

1359
01:10:45,600 --> 01:10:48,720
Speaker 5: am confident Brighton will be efficient enough in front of goal,

1360
01:10:49,120 --> 01:10:51,799
Speaker 5: in front of that amates crowd down on the South Coast.

1361
01:10:52,000 --> 01:10:55,920
Speaker 5: So Brighton v Spurs over three point five minus one

1362
01:10:55,920 --> 01:10:56,280
Speaker 5: oh one.

1363
01:10:56,400 --> 01:10:58,680
Speaker 4: All right, that does it for this episode of Wonder Goal.

1364
01:10:59,000 --> 01:11:01,880
Speaker 4: Thank you for listening. We will be back in a

1365
01:11:02,000 --> 01:11:04,920
Speaker 4: fortnight after the international break, but until then, best of

1366
01:11:04,960 --> 01:11:07,080
Speaker 4: luck with all your bets and tip of the caps

1367
01:11:07,120 --> 01:11:10,040
Speaker 4: to our producer Noah and David on the back end.

1368
01:11:10,240 --> 01:11:10,920
Speaker 4: We'll see you soon.

1369
01:11:21,520 --> 01:11:25,000
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1370
01:11:25,400 --> 01:11:28,240
Speaker 6: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1371
01:11:28,520 --> 01:11:31,160
Speaker 6: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1372
01:11:31,200 --> 01:11:32,000
Speaker 6: hundred Gambler