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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week. What's the state of

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Speaker 1: corporate governance? A deficent is a real issue. The US

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Speaker 1: economy continues to send mixed signals, the financial stories that

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Speaker 1: cheap our world fed action to con concerns over dollar

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Speaker 1: liquidity and encouraging China data. The five hundred wealthiest people

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Speaker 1: in the world. Through the eyes of the most influential

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Speaker 1: voices Larry Summers, the former Treasury Secretary, Star CEO, Kevin

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Speaker 1: Johnson sec Chairman j Clayton. Bloomberg wool Street Week with

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Speaker 1: David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. The dark winter of COVID

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Speaker 1: nineteen and shutdowns is here, but the spring of vaccines

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Speaker 1: and fiscal simulants is finally on its way. This is

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. We begin with

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Speaker 1: the scientists and the doctors and the person who has

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Speaker 1: been our guide and our experts throughout this experience, Dr

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Speaker 1: Anthony Fauci of NIH, who it happens, had gotten his

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Speaker 1: inoculation just the day before we talked with him. So

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Speaker 1: we started with a question on all of our minds,

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Speaker 1: how does it feel? You know, I really feel really fine? Uh.

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Speaker 1: For at least five or six hours after the injection,

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Speaker 1: I didn't feel anything at all, I mean, less so

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Speaker 1: than a flu vaccine. Then a late afternoon early evening,

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Speaker 1: I started to get a little bit of an ache,

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Speaker 1: A really nothing to distract me or bother me, but

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Speaker 1: just something that when I press on it, you could

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Speaker 1: actually feel it. I didn't get, you know, a lot

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Speaker 1: of muscle aches or anything. I mean I felt something

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Speaker 1: a little different, like there was something going on, like

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Speaker 1: maybe a little warm, a little little flushed. I feel

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Speaker 1: perfectly fine. The only thing I have now is that

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Speaker 1: my where the injection side is still is a little sore.

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Speaker 1: But when I say sore, I mean really not very

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Speaker 1: distractingly saw just baseline borderline. If there are side effects,

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Speaker 1: how quickly would they kick in? They usually all occur

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Speaker 1: within the first twelve hours, and they last between twenty

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Speaker 1: four and at the most thirty six hours. It's extremely

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Speaker 1: unusual for someone to have something beyond dirty X to

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Speaker 1: forty eight hours. Now, you said in getting your inoculation

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Speaker 1: it was for two reasons. First of all, you are

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Speaker 1: a physician, you're actually treating patients. But secondly, you wanted

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Speaker 1: it to really represent to people that this truly is safe.

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Speaker 1: We don't need me worried about it. Do you have

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Speaker 1: a sense that there is much resistance at this point

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Speaker 1: in the vaccination program? You know, it's getting better, Thank goodness.

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Speaker 1: When we did surveys, you know, a month or so

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Speaker 1: two ago, you know, there was almost fifty percent of

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Speaker 1: the people had some reservations or skepticism about getting vaccinated.

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Speaker 1: The last survey, which was just last week, they said

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Speaker 1: that more than sixty percent of the people said that

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Speaker 1: they would be willing to get the vaccine. We really

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Speaker 1: want to get that up even much higher than that,

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Speaker 1: because the projection is that if you get anywhere between

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Speaker 1: seventy and eighty five of the population vaccinated, you would

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Speaker 1: create an umbrella of immunity over the community, which could

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Speaker 1: really get the level of virus so low that it

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Speaker 1: would not be a threat. And then you could answer

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Speaker 1: the question that everyone seems to be asking appropriately, is

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Speaker 1: that when can we start approaching some degree of normality,

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Speaker 1: When can we be doing things like safely having the

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Speaker 1: children in school, or going to a restaurant and sitting indoors,

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Speaker 1: or going to a movie theater. You know, I would

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Speaker 1: think if we start getting the general population vaccinated, let's

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Speaker 1: say mid April. Between now and then, we're going through

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Speaker 1: the various priorities. We started off healthcare providers and people

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Speaker 1: in nursing homes and long term facilities. The second level

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Speaker 1: is people over seventy five and individuals in what's called

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Speaker 1: necessary or or or important places in society to keep

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Speaker 1: society running. And that could be anything from a police

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Speaker 1: officer to a fireman to someone who runs a grocery store,

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Speaker 1: so people can get food. When you get through those

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Speaker 1: priorities and you get to what I call open season,

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Speaker 1: like anybody can get the vaccination even though you're not

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Speaker 1: in a priority group. I imagine that's probably gonna be

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Speaker 1: sometime in April, and then if we can really get

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Speaker 1: vaccines going in April, May, June, July, and August, by

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Speaker 1: the time we get to the end of the summer,

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Speaker 1: I think we can get to that goal that I'm

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Speaker 1: talking about about getting the overwhelming majority of the population vaccinated.

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Speaker 1: So if we keep going on the course we are

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Speaker 1: right now, and obviously there can be turns one way

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Speaker 1: or the other on this course. If we keep going

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Speaker 1: the way we're headed right now, you're saying Labor Day

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Speaker 1: is a likely scenario, sort of in the Bell curve

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Speaker 1: that's sort of the middle of Belker. Yeah, I would

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Speaker 1: think so. I think again, there's a lot of contingencies

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Speaker 1: and ifs here. One of the big if is that

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Speaker 1: the supply of the vaccines that we think is on

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Speaker 1: target continue we don't get any glitches in production, because

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Speaker 1: if we have a glitchen production, than the expected number

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Speaker 1: of doses don't arrive. Even though people want to get vaccinated,

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Speaker 1: you're not going to vaccinate them. So the two things

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Speaker 1: that are important. A production goes along the way we

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Speaker 1: hope it will and I think it will. And number two,

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Speaker 1: a substantial proportion of the people continue to want to

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Speaker 1: get vaccinated. As far as you're concerned right now, is

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Speaker 1: there anything that we could do as a government, as

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Speaker 1: a society to expedite that, to have even more production

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Speaker 1: or more distribution. Yes, that's a good question. In fact,

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Speaker 1: what we're doing is that when negotiating and contractual negotiations

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Speaker 1: with the companies that are already providing a substantial number

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Speaker 1: of doses, to see if we can get yet again

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Speaker 1: another added amount from that company, where negotiating with FISA,

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Speaker 1: when negotiating with Moderna as well as other companies to

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Speaker 1: try and get the numbers higher than what the original

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Speaker 1: projection was. Now you do science, you do medicine, you

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Speaker 1: don't do politics. At the same time, in this stimulus package,

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Speaker 1: there is money put aside for vaccines, as I understand,

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Speaker 1: around eight or nine billion dollars vaccine distribution, maybe another

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Speaker 1: as much as twenty billion dollars I've heard for testing

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Speaker 1: and tracing. Give us a sense as a public health official,

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Speaker 1: how important that money is right now? How badly is

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Speaker 1: it needed? Well, thank you for asking that question. It

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Speaker 1: is definitely needed because vaccine distribution is a critical issue

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Speaker 1: because a you could produce. First of all, they are

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Speaker 1: multiple steps. Is the vaccine safe and effective? Well, thank goodness,

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Speaker 1: it is not only safe and effective, it is highly efficacious.

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Speaker 1: So we're starting off luckily with a really good product.

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Speaker 1: The next thing is producing it. That was Dr Anthony

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Speaker 1: Fauci of the National Institutes of Health. Coming up. As

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Speaker 1: the Trump administration enters its final days, Secretary of Commerce

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Speaker 1: Wilbur Ross gives us his read on what it accomplished

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Speaker 1: in its confrontation with China. That's next on Wall Street

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Speaker 1: Week on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with

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Speaker 1: David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. One of the top priorities

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Speaker 1: for the Trump administration was bringing China to hell on

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Speaker 1: an array of trade and security issues through use of

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Speaker 1: things like tariffs and not write bands on dealings with

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Speaker 1: Chinese companies. We asked one of the principal architects of

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Speaker 1: that trade policy, wilber Raw, Secretary of Commerce, what in

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Speaker 1: his view the Trump administration accomplished. Well. First of all,

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Speaker 1: you have the Phase one deal which was announced a

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Speaker 1: while ago, that largely deals with commercial side of things,

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Speaker 1: deals with agriculture, deals with manufactured products, deals with energy.

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Speaker 1: So that was a very good thing to level the

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Speaker 1: playing field a bit. There's still remains Phase two, which

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Speaker 1: Lawley has to do with better market access, more respect

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Speaker 1: for intellectual property, that kind of thing that is harder

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Speaker 1: to quantify, but at least as important in the overall picture. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: we have been struggling to combat the rising military threat

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Speaker 1: of China, both industrial espionage, taking militarily and sensitive products

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Speaker 1: technology into China, And most recently we put a hundred

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Speaker 1: and three more companies on our list. That's a very

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Speaker 1: big number, it's very precise, and that these are the

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Speaker 1: actual subsidiaries of big Chinese conglomerates that are part of

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Speaker 1: the military establishment. We call them military end users. Prior

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Speaker 1: to that, we have dealt with the issue of Wawei

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Speaker 1: and Zte for their violations and for the five G

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Speaker 1: competition springing up between China and ourselves, and then in

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Speaker 1: between we did a lot of things about semiconductors, most

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Speaker 1: recently Smick Semiconductor Manufacturing Industry Corp. The largest of the

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Speaker 1: Chinese semiconductor manufacturers. And then on the other side of

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Speaker 1: the equation, we're trying to encourage a more robust semiconductor

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Speaker 1: ecosystem here in the United States, and that was authorized

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Speaker 1: in the National Defense Authorization Act that just went through.

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Speaker 1: So those have been a few of the very dramatic

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Speaker 1: things relating to China in space that we have been

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Speaker 1: extremely active as well. One of the ideas of drama

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Speaker 1: have been in position of tariffs. Looking back over it now,

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Speaker 1: has the imposition of has had the affected result that

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Speaker 1: you wanted as a practical matter, whether it's trading goods

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Speaker 1: like your Phase one or more broadly, do you think

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Speaker 1: it's really made a difference in our trading with China

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Speaker 1: or is this setting the stage for something that yet

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Speaker 1: to come. Well, it's both, it has had accomplishment. The

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Speaker 1: Chinese commitment, for example, to purchase agriculture is huge, and

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Speaker 1: I believe it will turn out that this past year

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Speaker 1: that's just ending, will be the largest agricultural purchase year

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Speaker 1: that China has ever had from the US. That's a

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Speaker 1: very good thing because our farmers have been hurting. Remember, though,

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Speaker 1: we have remained with tariffs on quite a lot of

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Speaker 1: goods coming from China, and the major reason for that

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Speaker 1: is to still have some trading room so that if

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Speaker 1: we do get the kinds of concessions that are needed

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Speaker 1: for the bigger issues, that we have something to give

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Speaker 1: them potentially in exchange. So I think it was a

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Speaker 1: very well balanced use of tariffs, pulling off tariffs on

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Speaker 1: some in a reciprocal way as they lowered their tariff

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Speaker 1: and non tariff trade barriers to us, but leaving some

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Speaker 1: in reserve so that we can get the rest of

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Speaker 1: the way. Because we must solve the technology problem, that

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Speaker 1: we must solve the industrial espionage, we must solve the

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Speaker 1: stealing of secrets in various ways, and we must solve

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Speaker 1: their efforts to become the dominant military power at our expense,

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Speaker 1: and President Trump and you, I must say I made

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Speaker 1: that a priority, dealing with the industrial espionage, so of

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Speaker 1: the theft of intellectual property, things like that. Can you

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Speaker 1: measure that and see where we've actually made a difference

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Speaker 1: or is it not kicked in yet? I mean, is

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Speaker 1: there less of it today than there was four years ago? Well,

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Speaker 1: they have passed some legislation that moves a little bit

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Speaker 1: in the right direction, but big issues like market access

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Speaker 1: still remain. So there is work to be done. And

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Speaker 1: we knew that. Remember this was not announced as a

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Speaker 1: complete trade deal. This was announced as a phase one,

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Speaker 1: so we in the Chinese both are well aware that

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Speaker 1: there's much more to do and hopefully that will happen

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Speaker 1: in the coming periods. Its second, one of your priorities.

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Speaker 1: We've talked about it before, is that, if I can

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Speaker 1: put it this way, a commercialization of space, really the

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Speaker 1: business of space. Give us a sense of where we

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Speaker 1: are on that right now, what progress we've made, and

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Speaker 1: what is the next step that needs to take place. Well,

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Speaker 1: there's been tremendous progress. Aid Remember back in two thousand

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Speaker 1: and ten eleven we launched zero rockets from the United States.

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Speaker 1: President Obama had made arrangements for the Russians to launch

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Speaker 1: the rockets, including the rockets that carry our astronauts to

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Speaker 1: our space station, most recently charging US eighty five million

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Speaker 1: dollars per ride. But in the two thousand and ten

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Speaker 1: eleven period, some very wealthy people decided they were going

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Speaker 1: to try to commercialize space, and the President has now

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Speaker 1: ratified that with the new UH Space Command on the

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Speaker 1: military side and the other activities on the commercial side.

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Speaker 1: He the Committee has delegated two Commerce a lot of

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Speaker 1: the role for commercialization of space through our Office of

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Speaker 1: Space Commerce. And I'm happy to say that the National

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Speaker 1: Defense Authorization Act has authorized a very big increase in

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Speaker 1: the budget for the Office of Space Commerce. They've really

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Speaker 1: little bit more than doubled it. And they also approved

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Speaker 1: on an authorization basis, the merger into that office of

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Speaker 1: the current regulatory apparatus for remote sensing. The remote sensing

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Speaker 1: is the looking down from satellites UH for GPS purposes,

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Speaker 1: for weather purposes, for all kinds of purposes. That was

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Speaker 1: Secretary Commerce Wilbur Ross coming up. Another historic economic recovery

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Speaker 1: package finally makes it through the Congress, only to be

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Speaker 1: met by President Trump's demand that it go back and

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Speaker 1: increased payments to individuals. Senator Dick durban of Illinois was

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Speaker 1: one of those who helped Congress come together on the bill,

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Speaker 1: sitting on the President's desk. That's next on Wall Street

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Speaker 1: Week on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with

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Speaker 1: David Weston from Bloomberg Radio. It took seven long months

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Speaker 1: and it wasn't always pretty, but this week Democrats and

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Speaker 1: Republicans laid down their arms and came to an agreement

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Speaker 1: on a nine billion dollar stimulus package that would be

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Speaker 1: the second largest in US history. But that was only

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Speaker 1: met by President Trump objecting the fact they hadn't given

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Speaker 1: enough in direct payments to individuals. Well, however that plays out.

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Speaker 1: Dick Durbin was one of the key senators who brought

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Speaker 1: about this compromise, and he said that there is no

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Speaker 1: question that it is necessary and that actually more maybe needed. Well,

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Speaker 1: I can tell you there'll be a relief for millions

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Speaker 1: of Americans by extending unemployment benefits, also making almost three

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Speaker 1: hundred billion dollars available in loans to businesses, which I

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Speaker 1: think is going to main survival for some of these businesses. Literally,

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Speaker 1: more money for the logistics of the vaccination campaign, help

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Speaker 1: for the schools. Uh. It is a long list and

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Speaker 1: a very good most when it comes obviously center a

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Speaker 1: time when the country is hurting. I mean, we have

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Speaker 1: more and more cases, more and more hospitalization, even sorry,

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Speaker 1: sorry to say deaths. What will this do for the people,

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Speaker 1: for example, back in your home state of Illinois, Well,

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Speaker 1: we have thousands who are going to lose health and

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Speaker 1: army unemployment instrudents. And now they're assured that the check

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Speaker 1: is coming. It may take a little delay to receive it,

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Speaker 1: but they will be receiving the money. And for some

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Speaker 1: of these businesses, they have no place seales to turn

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Speaker 1: but an additional forgivable loan UH, and I hope we

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Speaker 1: can help them out to stay in business. UH. This

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Speaker 1: is the second largest such stimulus bill in history, as

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Speaker 1: I understand, it's the second one of the cares that

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Speaker 1: bigger than what happened back in two two at nine.

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Speaker 1: Is it big enough? No. I hope that we are

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Speaker 1: open to the notion that we are not in recovery

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Speaker 1: to an extent that we can ignore this. In the future,

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Speaker 1: we may have to extend unemployment again, and we may

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Speaker 1: have to help businesses again. But the bottom line is

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve is giving us a kind of a

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Speaker 1: direction here and basically saying, keep your foot on the accelerator.

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Speaker 1: We don't want this economy to slump into a deep procession. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And I believe them. They are doing everything thing they

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Speaker 1: can from a monetary policy. We should do what we

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Speaker 1: couldn't can from the fiscal So do you have a

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Speaker 1: sensible whether you'll succeed in that? I mean, there's no

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Speaker 1: way of knowing, obviously, but we have various experts, economist

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Speaker 1: investors are saying they think basically this act will prevent

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Speaker 1: the so called w that is to say, dipping back

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Speaker 1: down into a second recession. Do you have some confidence

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Speaker 1: of that? Well, I'm hopeful. I hope it is. And

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Speaker 1: maybe with the vaccines online, more and more Americans being protected,

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Speaker 1: finally see a downturn in the infections and how spitializations

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Speaker 1: and the death that I think is what we're praying for,

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Speaker 1: and that will mean a new day, will see a

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Speaker 1: more positive future. And I think that optimism can bring

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Speaker 1: me a coming back. The unemployment benefits that you describe,

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Speaker 1: I think go into March something like that. So this

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Speaker 1: is like a big bridge for maybe let's call it

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Speaker 1: three months right now. We can't be confident that we're

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Speaker 1: gonna be past this pan by. In fact, if anything,

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Speaker 1: it looks like it's gonna be more mid year, if

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Speaker 1: we in fact do need another round, and you can

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Speaker 1: call it recovery, you can call it stimulus, whatever you

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Speaker 1: want to call it. How covered are you that, in

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Speaker 1: fact you can get your Republican brothers and sisters to

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Speaker 1: go along with you. Where we went into our little group,

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Speaker 1: bipartisan group of senators and started in the negotiation, the

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Speaker 1: first thing we heard was that a large number of

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Speaker 1: the Senate Republican caucus does not believe we need a stimulus.

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Speaker 1: Even now. I can't understand where they're coming from, but

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Speaker 1: that's their argument. We don't need it. And so basically,

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Speaker 1: unemployment benefits are a real stimulus. Every dollar given to

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Speaker 1: a person unemployed is likely to be spent, not saved

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Speaker 1: for another day. So I think we need the stimulus now.

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Speaker 1: I hope we can avoid it in the future, but

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Speaker 1: if we can't, unemployment as a key as so there's

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Speaker 1: some more help that's needed as we get into the spring.

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Speaker 1: Is there anything you can do right now to position

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Speaker 1: the question to maximize the chance that you'll be able

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Speaker 1: to get that help. But we gotta we have to

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Speaker 1: watch carefully to see what the impact of this, And

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Speaker 1: there's a lag time, I'm sure between congressional action and

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Speaker 1: impact on the economy. But there also it's going to

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Speaker 1: be a shot in the arm in terms of confidence

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Speaker 1: and optimism people see this coming. Witness said in the

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Speaker 1: stock market, for example, in some aspects of it, Uh,

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Speaker 1: there is a feeling that perhaps we're really serious of

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Speaker 1: getting out of this whole brand. And if that optimism

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Speaker 1: is demonstrated in the next couple of months, I think

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Speaker 1: we can make our case that the right stimulus and

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Speaker 1: the right amount at the right time can help us

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Speaker 1: to a smooth glad path. You said, you're not a

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Speaker 1: exactly sure how some of the Replican colleagues could believe

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Speaker 1: we don't need it even now, even this nine billion.

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Speaker 1: One of the concerns it's raised is the deficit, uh,

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Speaker 1: and it's something we all have to be concerned about

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Speaker 1: at some level. I mean, we have a lot of

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Speaker 1: debt we're piling up that a lot of people think

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Speaker 1: it's necessary. Do you put some credence to that argument?

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Speaker 1: And what should we be doing. At one point ten

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Speaker 1: years ago, you actually had some plans to try to

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Speaker 1: address that as we come out of this. Is there

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Speaker 1: a way that we can come back and actually address

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Speaker 1: some of those legitimate concerns with a healthy economy. Of course,

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Speaker 1: and we should, and this debt and deficit in the

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Speaker 1: United States need to be faced squarely. But let's let's

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Speaker 1: face it. We are in a very perilous moment. And

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Speaker 1: if this economy slumps even further, if more businesses go under,

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Speaker 1: if fewer people are working, then we're going to see

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Speaker 1: a death set that is aggravated, not improved. So let's

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Speaker 1: get this economy good and strong and people feeling good,

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Speaker 1: optimistic about the future. Put this pandemic behind us, and

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Speaker 1: I think we're gonna become roaring back. That was Senate

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Speaker 1: Minority Whip Dick Durbin of Illinois. Coming up. We wrap

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Speaker 1: up the week as we do every week, with our

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Speaker 1: special contributor Larry Summers of Harvard. This is Wall Street

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Speaker 1: Week on Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Wall Street Week with

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Speaker 1: David Weston from Bloomberg Radio, and we wrap up the

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Speaker 1: week as we do every week, with our special contributor

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Speaker 1: to Larry Summers of Harvard. So, Larry, A lot of

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Speaker 1: talk this week was about stimulus. We thought we had

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Speaker 1: that nine eight billion dollars stimuluts bill. Then President Trump

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Speaker 1: up and said, no, I don't like it. What do

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Speaker 1: you think about where we are in stimulus. Look, we're

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Speaker 1: better off with stimulus than we are without stimulus. I

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Speaker 1: don't think the two thousand dollar checks, uh make much sense.

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Speaker 1: The real issue is gonna be sustaining this expansion. If

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Speaker 1: you think about it, the night stimulus bill probably would

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Speaker 1: pay out two hundred, two hundred and fifty billion dollars

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Speaker 1: a month for the next three months. The level of

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Speaker 1: compensation is running about thirty billion dollars a month below

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Speaker 1: what we would have expected it would. GDP S running

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Speaker 1: about seventy billion dollars a month below what we would

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Speaker 1: have expected it would. So in a way that's quite unprecedented.

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Speaker 1: We have stimulus already much more than filling out the whole.

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Speaker 1: And given that lots of the whole is from the

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Speaker 1: fact not that people don't want to spend, but that

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Speaker 1: they can't spend because they can't take a flight or

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Speaker 1: they can't go to a restaurant. I don't necessarily think

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Speaker 1: that the priority should be on promoting consumer spending beyond

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Speaker 1: where we are now. So I'm not even sure that

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Speaker 1: I'm so enthusiastic about the six d dollar checks, and

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Speaker 1: I think taking them to two thousand dollars would actually

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Speaker 1: be a pretty serious mistake that would risk a temporary overheat.

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Speaker 1: I would like to see more assistance to state and

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Speaker 1: local governments. I would like to see more money put

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Speaker 1: into testing, more money put into accelerating of vaccines, But gosh, David,

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Speaker 1: I think it would be a real mistake to be

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Speaker 1: going to uh two thousand dollars. And I have to

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Speaker 1: say that when you see that two extremes agreed, you

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Speaker 1: could almost be certain that something crazy is in the air.

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Speaker 1: And so when I see a coalition of Josh Holly,

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Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump getting behind an idea, I

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Speaker 1: think that's time to run for cover. And I know

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Speaker 1: that many of my fellow Keynesians who believe in fiscal

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Speaker 1: stimulus will likely um be in favor of this, but

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Speaker 1: sometimes there can be too much poorly designed of even

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Speaker 1: a basically good idea. And that's my reaction to two stimulus. Well,

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Speaker 1: it's not massive the way we moved just two thousand

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Speaker 1: dollars a person would be But when you talk about

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Speaker 1: maybe poorly designed, we've got a fifty page bill, give

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Speaker 1: or take here, a lot of stuff in there. Probably

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Speaker 1: nobody knows that's why what's in there. But you've got

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Speaker 1: a chance to look at someone now are there's some

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Speaker 1: things that really jump out at you and say, boy,

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Speaker 1: that doesn't make much sense to me. There are two

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Speaker 1: things that strike me as really big time done. Uh.

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Speaker 1: The first is the resurrection of the three martini lunch

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Speaker 1: that was repealed by like the rate of administration on

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Speaker 1: principle that why should on the company canteen not the

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Speaker 1: tax deductible when you when you eat there and fat

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Speaker 1: cat executive lunches um beat aductible for all concerns and

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Speaker 1: not treated as uh income. We put it back for

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Speaker 1: two years. That's beyond where people think this pandemic is

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Speaker 1: gonna be. The reason they put it back for two

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Speaker 1: years was because they knew that once that had been

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Speaker 1: there for two years, it was gonna be hard not

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Speaker 1: to keep extending. So I think that qualifies as the

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Speaker 1: worst tax provision of the decade, and it's a decade

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Speaker 1: that's seen some real doozies. The other one. The other one, David,

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Speaker 1: where it doesn't make much sense is if you get

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Speaker 1: a P P P loan and so you don't bear

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Speaker 1: any expense for a portion of your payroll, why should

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Speaker 1: you get to deduct a payment you didn't make, Or equivalently,

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Speaker 1: if the government's going to give you money, how come

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Speaker 1: that's not being called income? And so that sort of

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Speaker 1: overpayment seems to me to be another thing that's just

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Speaker 1: a straight out giveaway. And make no mistake, these things

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Speaker 1: are not there by accident. These things are there because

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Speaker 1: people put them there, and they're there then because other

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Speaker 1: people didn't have the courage to resist them, even though

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Speaker 1: they knew that they were wrong. And I don't believe

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Speaker 1: for a moment that there was any large benefit achieved

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Speaker 1: by accepting those atrocities into UH the tax code. There

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Speaker 1: may have been some little bit of temporary extension um

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Speaker 1: temporarily making more generous the childcare credit that they got

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Speaker 1: for the meals thing, but the meals thing will far

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Speaker 1: survive any benefit that Progressive UH derived. That was bad

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Speaker 1: thinking and then bad negotiating. I talked to Dr Anthony Fauci,

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Speaker 1: and he said he thinks that sort of base case

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Speaker 1: center the Bell curve is we'll be back to something

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Speaker 1: approaching what he called normal by the end of the summer,

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Speaker 1: toward Labor Day, and he defined that is seventy percent

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Speaker 1: of the populace inoculated. Does that make sense to you,

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Speaker 1: I'll be disappointed if it takes until September to get

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Speaker 1: to the population UH inoculated. I don't see why you

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Speaker 1: shouldn't be able to do it more quickly. I hope

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Speaker 1: that more vaccines will come online than the fiser and

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Speaker 1: the Maderta vaccines that are online now. I think there's

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Speaker 1: some legitimate issues about whether people should have to get

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Speaker 1: two doses or whether one dose would be appropriate UH

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Speaker 1: in many cases. I think there are other things we

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Speaker 1: can do to facilitate or return towards UH normality that

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Speaker 1: center on making testing much more inexpensive and UH pervasively available.

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Speaker 1: In general, while the worst by far of the errors

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Speaker 1: have been those of President Trump and those of some

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Speaker 1: of the people on the political side, I think the

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Speaker 1: scientific communities desire for perfection as again and again stopped

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Speaker 1: us from having very very valuable improvement. The FDA shouldn't

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Speaker 1: be blocking many of the tests they are currently blocking.

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Speaker 1: These vaccines should have come on stream a bit sooner

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Speaker 1: uh than uh they did, and we need to be

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Speaker 1: thinking about things from a broad population ethic point of view,

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Speaker 1: which speaks to the importance of speed. We're want to

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Speaker 1: wrap up the week as always what summer says lightning

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Speaker 1: around here. Uh. First of all, as you look at

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Speaker 1: the Biden cabinet and the question of consentate confirmation for

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Speaker 1: the ones you need to be confirmed, if you were

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Speaker 1: going to guess what portion of that cabinet will be

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Speaker 1: confirmed by January thirty one, I would guess that will

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Speaker 1: be confirmed by January thirty one, and that ninety ninety

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Speaker 1: ton per cent will be ultimately confirmed. My guess is

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Speaker 1: there will be one or two cases that aren't confirmed,

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Speaker 1: and that the vast majority of those who are confirmed

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Speaker 1: will have been confirmed by the end of January. And

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Speaker 1: that's your respective of what happens that Georgia with the

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Speaker 1: runoff elections and whether the Democrats will be better from

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Speaker 1: the point of view of confirmation if the Democrats UH

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Speaker 1: win in Georgia, but I think even if they don't,

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Speaker 1: the president will get the vast majority of his people

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Speaker 1: through Okay, number two, What is the biggest political surprise

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Speaker 1: we're gonna have over the next six months. In your opinion,

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Speaker 1: I think Donald Trump is gonna fade from public view

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Speaker 1: faster than most people expect right now. Uh. It's always

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Speaker 1: true that bullies collapse in the face of a bit

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Speaker 1: of kryptodite, and his various legal problems are going to

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Speaker 1: be that kryptonite. If you go back in history to

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Speaker 1: two figures who had some resemblance um to uh Donald Trump. Uh,

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Speaker 1: Joe McCarthy and Douglas MacArthur. Both roade extremely high and

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00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 1: dominated the media until they didn't and once they had

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Speaker 1: passed their zenith, the collapse was faster than most people expected.

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Speaker 1: I think that's gonna happen with respect to Donald Trump,

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Speaker 1: and I'll bet right now that you will not be

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Speaker 1: a serious candidate for presidents in And let's wrap it

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Speaker 1: up with the markets related question, the dollar. There's a

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Speaker 1: lot of talk right now about the dollar, and specifically

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Speaker 1: maybe Janet Yelling as she becomes Treasury Secretary, which most

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Speaker 1: people expect really taking that mantle the Treasury secretaries have had,

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Speaker 1: as you know, since the mid nineties, are saying we

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Speaker 1: need a strong dollar. Put aside from him with Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump did about it. What do you think the dollar

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Speaker 1: is gonna be doing a year from now, stronger or

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Speaker 1: weaker than is right now, David Uh, As JP Morgan

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Speaker 1: used to say when he was asked a similar question,

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Speaker 1: my prediction, based on all my experience in the markets,

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Speaker 1: is that the dollar will I'm very confident about this

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Speaker 1: fluctuate in uh the year ahead. I'd be surprised if

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Speaker 1: there was a large move. Janet, as every Treasury secretary does,

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Speaker 1: will have to find her wine on the dollar. I

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Speaker 1: certainly hope she will make clear that it's the Biben

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Speaker 1: administration's intent to build prosperity on a strong foundation of fundamentals,

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Speaker 1: rather than indulge in any idea that it's possible to

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Speaker 1: devalue your way of prosperity, and how she expresses that thought.

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Speaker 1: I'm confident she will find a good way. But it's

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Speaker 1: uh that essence of a focus on fundamentals rather than

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Speaker 1: evaluation as a prosperity strategy is I think the point

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Speaker 1: on which financial authorities have to be clear always great

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Speaker 1: to talk to the Larry that is Larry Summers, our

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Speaker 1: special contributor of course of Harvard Law School, former Treasury,

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Speaker 1: second Germany. That does it. For this episode of Wall

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Speaker 1: Street Week, I'm David Weston. This is Bloomberg Sex rat