Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg DAYBAQ podcast, available every morning on Apple,
Speaker 2: Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Friday, the twenty first
Speaker 2: of February in London. I'm Caroline Hepka.
Speaker 1: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. The United States
Speaker 1: signals sanctions on Russia are a bargaining chip in talks
Speaker 1: over ending the Ukraine War.
Speaker 2: The US Treasury secretary tells Bloomberg any move to boost
Speaker 2: longer term debt isn't imminent as investors start to consider
Speaker 2: Trump's ideas for the treasury market.
Speaker 1: Plus, it's been thirty years since Nick Leeson caused the
Speaker 1: collapse of Barings Bank. The former rogue trader tells us
Speaker 1: why he's worried about the UK's post to deregulate.
Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.
Speaker 1: The United States says sanctions on Russia are on the
Speaker 1: negotiating table and the talks to end the war in Ukraine.
Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary Scott bess End told Bloomberg the White House
Speaker 1: is prepared to either ram boop or ease penalties on
Speaker 1: Moscow as negotiations progress. He also continued the administration's criticism
Speaker 1: of Ukraine's President Vlasimir Zelenski.
Speaker 3: I think President Zolensky unfortunately escalated and has put some
Speaker 3: daylight between them. Escalated that a lot of his remarks
Speaker 3: in Munich. I thought we're inappropriate. President Zelenski, when I
Speaker 3: met with him, assured me that he'd be the signing
Speaker 3: the minerals deal in Munich.
Speaker 4: He has not.
Speaker 1: Scott Bessant there speaking to Boomberg's Anrie Hordern, America's change
Speaker 1: in tone on Ukraine has affected talks among the Group
Speaker 1: of Seven nations. Countries are struggling to agree on a
Speaker 1: draft communicate to mark three years since Russia's invasion after
Speaker 1: the US objected to references to Russia's war of aggression.
Speaker 2: The US Treasury Secretary also told Bloomberg that plans to
Speaker 2: boost the amount of long term debt the US issues
Speaker 2: are a long way off. Bessant has repeatedly criticize his predecessor,
Speaker 2: Janet Yellen for favoring short term debt to fund the
Speaker 2: US economy, but the Treasury Secretary says that rebalancing will
Speaker 2: take time.
Speaker 4: That's a long way off, and we're going to see
Speaker 4: what the market wants. The FED said that they may
Speaker 4: stop their balance sheet runoff, so you know, easier for
Speaker 4: me to exten duration when I'm not competing with another
Speaker 4: big seller. It's going to be past dependent.
Speaker 2: Best, and also dismiss recent market speculation that the government
Speaker 2: might revalue its holdings of gold to reduce US borrowing needs.
Speaker 2: The Treasury Secretary also added that cost savings from Elon
Speaker 2: Musk's Doze efficiency drive should help bring down spending.
Speaker 1: Wall Street is starting to look seriously at plans to
Speaker 1: overhaul the treasuries market drawn up by President Trump's advisors.
Speaker 1: One concept, dubbed the Mari Lago Accord, would involve forcing
Speaker 1: foreign creditors to swap their treasuries into one hundred year
Speaker 1: non trade will zero coupon bonds, and this would ease
Speaker 1: the US as debt burden. Market veter and Jim Bianco
Speaker 1: made it the focus of his client call this week.
Speaker 1: The founder of Bianco Research said, if Trump is bold
Speaker 1: enough to put NATO in jeopardy, he's bold enough to
Speaker 1: do the same with the foundations of the financial system.
Speaker 1: Bond investors are so far showing little sign of concern
Speaker 1: with trading in the treasury market. Particularly cam in recent days.
Speaker 2: Federal Reserve policymaker Alberto Mussulam sees a growing risk of
Speaker 2: inflation stalling above the fed's two percent target or moving higher.
Speaker 2: Speaking at the Economic Club of New York, the Saint
Speaker 2: Lewis FED president argued policy should remain moderately restrictive until
Speaker 2: it's clear the Central Bank's goals are in sight. His
Speaker 2: comments come as a florry of officials shared their outlooks
Speaker 2: amidst uncertainty. They included the Chicago FED president or singles.
Speaker 5: B fiscal policy, in geopolitics, all of those things. If
Speaker 5: it affects prices or it effects employment, then the law
Speaker 5: says we have to think about it. Well, I don't
Speaker 5: tell you what to order at the restaurant. I just say, look,
Speaker 5: what are the prices and what is the menu? And
Speaker 5: if tariffs drive up prices, then we have to think
Speaker 5: about them.
Speaker 2: Fed policymaker Usin coilsby speaking there. The Bank of Atlanta
Speaker 2: President Raphael Bostik also offered his opinion in an essay
Speaker 2: release on Thursday, for costing two rate cuts in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty five, but noting that uncertainty around that projection has
Speaker 2: now risen.
Speaker 1: Israel says Hamas has violated the Gaza ceasefire deal by
Speaker 1: handing over an anonymous body instead of one of the hostages.
Speaker 1: The IDF says the remains they were given were not
Speaker 1: those of Shari Bibas, who was captured alongside her two
Speaker 1: sons in the October seventh, twenty twenty three attacks. A
Speaker 1: spokesman for the US Secretary General, stef Andrew Jarek, called
Speaker 1: for both parties to abide by the terms of the ceasefire.
Speaker 6: The Secretary jeral reiterates his appeal to the party's by
Speaker 6: by their commitments to continue the full implementation of the
Speaker 6: ceasefire and hostage release deal. He urges the parties to
Speaker 6: the conflict to respect the remains of the dead and
Speaker 6: return them to their relatives.
Speaker 1: Stefan der Jarek speaking there, if the two sides can't agree,
Speaker 1: the war could soon start up again, risking more debts
Speaker 1: and Gaza and the lives of the remaining Israeli hostages.
Speaker 1: Bloomberg has learned. This fute comes as Saudi Arabia convenes
Speaker 1: a private summer to discuss a post war Gaza plan
Speaker 1: to counter the US proposal to relocate Palestinians.
Speaker 2: City Group is ending its workplace representation goals and removing
Speaker 2: requirements to interview candidates from diverse backgrounds. The lender cited
Speaker 2: pressure from the Trump administration as a reason for the
Speaker 2: changes set out in an internal memo from CEO Jane
Speaker 2: Fraser seen by Bloomberg. As well as abandoning aspirational representation goals,
Speaker 2: the Diversity, Equity and Inclusion and Talent Management team will
Speaker 2: be renamed to Talent Management and Engagement.
Speaker 1: There's another sign that UK consumers are feeling downbeat about
Speaker 1: the country's economic prospects. That's according to the latest research
Speaker 1: by market research company GfK. Bloomberg's Tea at a Bio
Speaker 1: has more.
Speaker 7: When it comes to the economy, pessimism is higher now
Speaker 7: than it was in the wake of recession a year ago.
Speaker 7: GfK's gauge of expectations over the next year came in
Speaker 7: at minus thirty one this month, seven percentage points weaker
Speaker 7: than February twenty twenty four. That's close to a two
Speaker 7: year low. The lack of confidence could be due to
Speaker 7: warnings of job cuts from firms bracing for increased payroll
Speaker 7: cuts in April, keeping households wary about spending real wage gains.
Speaker 7: It's a blow for the Chancellor of Rachel Reeves as
Speaker 7: she pursues the growth that has eluded labor in its
Speaker 7: first months in power. In London, Tea added Bayo Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: Those are your tops to or is this morning? In
Speaker 2: the markets right now? Chinese tech stock surging to the
Speaker 2: most in three years after the earnings from Ali Barba.
Speaker 2: You have MSCI China Index and now by three point
Speaker 2: two percent overall. A lot of speculation about the Bank
Speaker 2: of Japan that it would hike interest rates sooner rather
Speaker 2: than later after the consumer inflation accelerated in January in
Speaker 2: Japan that saw benchmark Japanese yields touching a fifteen year
Speaker 2: high earlier this morning dampened down though after comments from
Speaker 2: Bank of Japan Governor Caswa a wader and so you
Speaker 2: have the Japanese yen also week of this morning down
Speaker 2: half of one percent. So moving back to one hundred
Speaker 2: and fifty spot four one Bloue McDonald Spot index is
Speaker 2: stronger tenth of one percent. Treasuries edging high in Asia,
Speaker 2: oil heading for its biggest weekly gain since early January,
Speaker 2: and gold holding steady near a record high. Those are
Speaker 2: the markets and the moment.
Speaker 1: We'll bring you more on the US plans for talks
Speaker 1: over Ukraine. Plus, it's been thirty years since the collapse
Speaker 1: of Bearings Bank and Karlyn. You've been speaking to the
Speaker 1: former tregger, nick Leeson, who sparked its collapse.
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely fascinating. So nick Leeson caused the collapse of
Speaker 2: the bank as a young man who was twenty eight
Speaker 2: years old. He made so many headlines the two hundred
Speaker 2: and thirty three year old Bearings Bank. That was, you know,
Speaker 2: a banker to the Queen, for example. Nick Leson speaking
Speaker 2: to us looking back at that period in his life
Speaker 2: but also thinking a bit about deregulation and what the
Speaker 2: rollback of regulation here in the UK and elsewhere might mean.
Speaker 2: He had some very interesting comments for us.
Speaker 1: To more in that conversation in just a couple of minutes.
Speaker 1: But first let's turn to our top story this morning,
Speaker 1: Donald Trump upending US policies on Ukraine and on Gaza.
Speaker 1: On Ukraine, the US has signal the sanctions relief for
Speaker 1: Russia could be on the table and talks over ending
Speaker 1: the conflict. Meanwhile, negotiations for the second stage of the
Speaker 1: ceasefire between Hamas and ISRAELO do you to start today
Speaker 1: as well with the details. Here's Bloomberg's EMEA News director
Speaker 1: Raslind Mathison raz Good morning with this talk of sanctions
Speaker 1: relief is a sign that Washington and Moscow are actually
Speaker 1: going to negotiate an end to the invasion of Ukraine.
Speaker 8: Well, it certainly does seem that way. It's interesting to
Speaker 8: see to some extent the US lay out a bit
Speaker 8: of its cards even before proper negotiations begin, or there's
Speaker 8: a meeting directly between the leaders of US and Russia.
Speaker 8: But as you say, the Treasury Secretary has got best
Speaker 8: at indicating in an interview on Bloomberg Television that definitely
Speaker 8: sanctions would be on the table, And that's certainly something
Speaker 8: we've seen Russia indicate it wants to be part of
Speaker 8: the conversation. They keep alluding to it with talk of
Speaker 8: economic measures, the status of their economy with the US,
Speaker 8: so certainly seems to be something that they're very keen
Speaker 8: to happen. The question is, in the meantime, does the
Speaker 8: US perhaps slow down simply the enforcement of sanctions on
Speaker 8: Russia to try and ensure that Russia does indeed get
Speaker 8: to the table in negotiating a war end of the
Speaker 8: war in Ukraine. But obviously, in all of this, the
Speaker 8: thing that stands out is we're talking a lot about
Speaker 8: US and Russia, but there's very little that we know
Speaker 8: about where Ukraine sits in all of this. And again
Speaker 8: the question is do the US and Russia strike a
Speaker 8: whole lot of understandings about how to end this war
Speaker 8: and then only then bring in Ukraine to the conversation.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's quite a change, isn't it. Russia has been
Speaker 2: a parah. Vlad Laputa has been a perah for so
Speaker 2: many years, so a real kind of change. The US
Speaker 2: and voy kid Klog though, did meet Zelensky, the Ukrainian president,
Speaker 2: who said that his team is ready to work with
Speaker 2: the US. Is there a sign that the Ukraine will
Speaker 2: be listened to? There's been such animosity. Are these talks
Speaker 2: as they progress? Will Ukraine be spoken to? Will they
Speaker 2: be involved?
Speaker 8: Well, they did meet yesterday, as you say, but that
Speaker 8: some of the parameters around the meeting were interesting, or
Speaker 8: the US said that they didn't want to have any
Speaker 8: joint briefing afterward or statement to the media, and Zelensky
Speaker 8: said afterward post on social media that Ukraine is ready
Speaker 8: for what he called a strong, effective, investment and security agreement.
Speaker 8: So that shows again that Ukraine is of course willing
Speaker 8: to talk to the US and wants to be part
Speaker 8: of the conversation, but also wants to sign up to
Speaker 8: an agreement that it sees is strong and effective involving
Speaker 8: the US. And there are reports overnight that the US
Speaker 8: has come back to Ukraine with a further proposal which
Speaker 8: would see the US getting access to some of Ukraine's
Speaker 8: critical minerals, and that's the US has to compensate it
Speaker 8: for its military support for Ukraine and for further support
Speaker 8: in the future. So perhaps there has been some movement there.
Speaker 8: But underlying all of this, given the comments we've seen
Speaker 8: this week, both from the US President and in response
Speaker 8: from Voladimir's Zelenski, you know that relationship remains exceptionally brought.
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Francis Manuel Macroz's used me Donald Trump on Monday
Speaker 1: in Washington that we want peace in Ukraine, but not
Speaker 1: a capitulation. Can European leaders, and he's only one of
Speaker 1: them that's going to be going to Washington get a
Speaker 1: hearing in the White House on this issue.
Speaker 8: Well, it probably depends on what they're bringing to the table.
Speaker 8: As you said, there's other leaders going there next week,
Speaker 8: including the UK Prime Minister Kiir Starmer, and we know
Speaker 8: from our own reporting that he's being advised to increase
Speaker 8: defense spending in the UK to two point five percent
Speaker 8: of output. That's only it from two point three percent,
Speaker 8: but it's a bit and so you might see, you know,
Speaker 8: both Starma and the French President Emmanual Macron talking up
Speaker 8: their plans to increase their own defense spending for Europe
Speaker 8: to become much more self reliant when it comes to defense,
Speaker 8: so assuring Donald Trump, they're taking him seriously on that.
Speaker 8: But then there's a separate question and the more immediate one,
Speaker 8: which is how can they again get into the conversation
Speaker 8: around the future of Ukraine. And we know it's possible
Speaker 8: that both Macron and Starma will go to propose what
Speaker 8: they call a reassurance force, where will provide some troops
Speaker 8: largely surrounding Ukraine, not in Ukraine itself, but to help,
Speaker 8: for example, in the question of how do you create
Speaker 8: safety in the skies in the event of any kind
Speaker 8: of CEASPI.
Speaker 2: Okay, away from Ukraine. Let's think about the Middle East.
Speaker 2: We've had the news out of Israel that it says
Speaker 2: that one of the bodies handed over by her Mass
Speaker 2: was not the hostage that the group claimed that it was.
Speaker 2: What's that going to mean for the negotiations over prolonging
Speaker 2: the ceasefire.
Speaker 8: Well, it's coming at a delicate time, as you say,
Speaker 8: because we are going into potentially the next stage conversation
Speaker 8: around the ceasfire, which is to a extend it, but
Speaker 8: be also to come into the conversations around more fundamentally
Speaker 8: what does the future of Gaza look like? And those
Speaker 8: are going to be very very delicate conversation. So we've
Speaker 8: seen already several times throughout this ceasepire that it's been
Speaker 8: at risk almost of breaking down disputes over these exchanges
Speaker 8: that have gone on, and there's another one due to
Speaker 8: come tomorrow. So the question is whether this becomes an
Speaker 8: issue to the point that the Israeli government says we'll
Speaker 8: hang on the ceasfar is not working and we're going
Speaker 8: to walk away. We do think at this point that
Speaker 8: they're likely to try and hold these talks, but again,
Speaker 8: at that point you're coming at it from very very
Speaker 8: different perspectives. Israel insists that Hamas be both demilitarized and
Speaker 8: removed from power, whereas Hamas says, yes, it's okay to
Speaker 8: talk about seeding control of Gaza, but it doesn't want
Speaker 8: to have to lay down its weapons, and then you
Speaker 8: end up with the situation a bit like Hesbalah in Lebanon,
Speaker 8: for example. So there are fundamental sticking points to any
Speaker 8: next stage conversation, and these latest developments just to add
Speaker 8: a further element of tension into those.
Speaker 1: Okay, Rosla Masora, Ema news director, thank you very much.
Speaker 2: Now it's been thirty years since Beering's Bank, Britain's oldest
Speaker 2: merchant bank, collapsed after twenty eight year old star trader
Speaker 2: Nick Leeson racked up one point four billion dollars in
Speaker 2: trading losses in bearing Singapore office. Lisa became the face
Speaker 2: of financial misconduct. He served more than four years in prison,
Speaker 2: then he wrote a book that became a Hollywood movie.
Speaker 2: For the past few decades, Lison's been on the speaker
Speaker 2: circuit talking about what he calls the most embarrassing time
Speaker 2: in his life, and more recently he's been working to
Speaker 2: investigate financial misconduct. I spoke to Nick Leeson alongside our
Speaker 2: finance reporter Will Shaw, and I began by asking him
Speaker 2: for his perspective now thirty years on, as he continues
Speaker 2: to talk about what he did.
Speaker 9: The piece of vice is really easy and it's you know,
Speaker 9: I delivered the same piece of advice to my children
Speaker 9: as well. You know, if you find yourself in a
Speaker 9: difficult situation, always ask for help and advice. You know,
Speaker 9: I was surrounded by people that could have helped me,
Speaker 9: but I didn't do that really simple thing. And you
Speaker 9: know back in it's a very different way, well today
Speaker 9: than it was in nineteen nineties banking. You know, asking
Speaker 9: for help was seen as a sign of weakness and
Speaker 9: you probably would have been just you know, not dismissed
Speaker 9: from the firm, but dismissed with it quite quite easily.
Speaker 9: But you should have seen it, or at the time,
Speaker 9: I should have seen it as a sign of trying
Speaker 9: to do things correctly. And it's such a simple thing.
Speaker 9: And you you know, as I explained it to my children,
Speaker 9: if they find themselves in a difficult situation, just come
Speaker 9: to me and tell me what's going on. You know
Speaker 9: that there might be a difficult period, but I'll help
Speaker 9: you through it and that's what I needed at the time.
Speaker 9: And I think, you know, just more communication is such
Speaker 9: an important tool.
Speaker 3: Nick.
Speaker 2: Can I say, You've had such a colorful life, You've
Speaker 2: written a couple of books, You've been, as I said
Speaker 2: to Jail, you've been, you know, widely understood as a
Speaker 2: kind of road road trader, sort of posted person for that.
Speaker 2: If there is another Nick Lison out there now, would
Speaker 2: you say to him or her her.
Speaker 9: Stop, you know it's it's not worth it. I am.
Speaker 9: You know. I remember doing a treasury management conference in
Speaker 9: the Barbicane, you know, a good few years ago now,
Speaker 9: and one treasurer came over to me and he said, look,
Speaker 9: I've got I'd like to ask a piece of advice.
Speaker 9: And you know, I started off by saying that, you know,
Speaker 9: I'm not sure I'm the right person for that, but
Speaker 9: you know, I'll do my best to respond as honestly
Speaker 9: as I can. And he said, there's a bit of
Speaker 9: an issue and it was for one of the biggest
Speaker 9: UK banks at the time. He said, I've got a
Speaker 9: bit of an issue. I'm not happy with something that's
Speaker 9: going on within the organization. I've got an email in
Speaker 9: my outbox that I want to send, but I just
Speaker 9: don't have the courage to send it at this time.
Speaker 9: What do you think I should do? And I said, look,
Speaker 9: you know, I don't know the specific instance, but the
Speaker 9: one piece of advice I can give you is it's
Speaker 9: it's far easier to get another job, it's not so
Speaker 9: easy to get another reputation. And you know, you've got
Speaker 9: to make the right decision on that basis.
Speaker 7: You know.
Speaker 9: Unfortunately, you know, my reputation might be slightly different than
Speaker 9: it was back in nineteen ninety five when the story
Speaker 9: came to everybody's attention, but it's still a bad reputation.
Speaker 2: Okay, Yeah, that's interesting that you feel that you're still
Speaker 2: very much stuck with even though you did the present
Speaker 2: time and it's a long time ago, you still feel
Speaker 2: that you're really saddled with it.
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's I think you You know, people have asked
Speaker 9: me if I'm you know, comfortable or content with that
Speaker 9: particular period in my life. I never will be. I
Speaker 9: never will be because it's the complete opposite of what
Speaker 9: I wanted to achieve. Am I content with myself? Yes,
Speaker 9: you know what I represent, you know, my family values
Speaker 9: and everything else. But the focus is very different. It's
Speaker 9: not on being successful and succeeding within the world of finance,
Speaker 9: which is what I wanted to do. So, you know,
Speaker 9: you have to change your focus a little bit and
Speaker 9: that enables you to move forward. Whereas you know, speaking
Speaker 9: about it so openly, honestly and regularly means that it's
Speaker 9: not this, you know, it's not this big ogre that
Speaker 9: follows me around all the time. It's part of my life,
Speaker 9: it's part of who I am today, but it's not
Speaker 9: you know, it doesn't quite have the level of shame,
Speaker 9: guilt and embarrassment as it did years ago, but it
Speaker 9: still has a certain amount of embarrassment.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. You're morning brief on the
Speaker 1: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.
Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple,
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Speaker 2: I'm Caroline Hepka.
Speaker 1: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again tomorrow morning for
Speaker 1: all the news you need to start your day right
Speaker 1: here on Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 3: Europe m m
Speaker 7: Mm hmm