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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, thanks for listening to Breaking Points with Crystal

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Speaker 1: and Sager. We're going to be totally upfront with you.

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Speaker 1: We took a big risk going independent to make this work.

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Speaker 1: We need your support to beat the corporate media CNN, Fox, MSNBC.

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Speaker 1: They are ripping this country apart. They are making millions

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Speaker 1: of dollars doing it to help support our mission of

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Speaker 1: making all of us hate each other, less hate the

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Speaker 1: corrupt ruling class more support the show. Become a Breaking

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Speaker 1: listen to the entire show ad free and uncut, an

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Speaker 1: hour early before everyone else. You get to hear our

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Speaker 1: reactions to each other's monologues. You get to participate and

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Speaker 1: weekly ask me any things, and you don't need to

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Speaker 1: hear our annoying voices pitching you like I am right now?

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Speaker 1: So what are you waiting for? Go to Breakingpoints dot

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Speaker 1: com become a Premium member today, which is available in

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Speaker 1: the show notes. Enjoy the show, guys, Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: What do we have, perscel? Indeed, we do lots to

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Speaker 1: get to this morning. First and foremost, gas prices have

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Speaker 1: hit a record all time high, and actually we just

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Speaker 1: checked this morning and it's up another ten cents from

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Speaker 1: when it already hit the record yesterday. We're going to

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Speaker 1: talk to you about that the overall economic picture. We

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Speaker 1: also have an expert on energy market, specifically to break

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Speaker 1: down what exactly was going on what we can expect

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Speaker 1: for the future. There have been some indications that Biden

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Speaker 1: might have gotten a little bit of a bump post

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Speaker 1: date of the Union and also potentially with his response

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Speaker 1: to Ukraine. We're going to look at all of the

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Speaker 1: relevant polls and see how real that is. We also

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Speaker 1: have the latest in the media is handling of the

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Speaker 1: Ukraine situation, and Sager's got a little scoop for you,

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Speaker 1: some super inside baseball, but it actually really matters in

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Speaker 1: terms of who gets to ask people in power question.

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Speaker 1: You guys will enjoy it. I have some inside the

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Speaker 1: room audio exclusive here to the show of some corruption

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Speaker 1: inside the White House Press briefing room as to how

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Speaker 1: exactly the legacy press is rigging the game. Something near

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Speaker 1: and dear to my heart because I once was inside

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Speaker 1: that room and I wanted to show you all of you.

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Speaker 1: So we're gonna break all of that down I think

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Speaker 1: you'll enjoy it. Yeah, it's actually a fascinating look, sort

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Speaker 1: of peak behind the curtain. So we wanted to start

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Speaker 1: with the very latest on the ground in Ukraine. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's right. I mean, we've been doing these and you

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Speaker 1: guys have found them very, very helpful, So let's continue.

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Speaker 1: We have the map here from Simtak. Let's go ahead

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Speaker 1: and put this up there on the screen. The battle

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Speaker 1: situation on the ground remains a bit static, so the

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Speaker 1: Russian offensive and Kiev is continuing with some pretty intensive

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Speaker 1: fighting up there near the city along the Earpin River.

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Speaker 1: Over on the east you have near Kharkiv. Ukrainian forces

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Speaker 1: actually pushed the Russian forces back along one of the

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Speaker 1: major strategic highways, but bombardments on military and civilian targets

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Speaker 1: are continuing across that. The siege of Mariopol continues in

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Speaker 1: down in the southern eastern region. That's actually the most

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Speaker 1: important one from a humanitarian perspective, because that's where a

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Speaker 1: lot of the corridors that are trying to be set

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Speaker 1: up are happening, and unfortunately, many of those corridors have

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Speaker 1: not stood the test of time, and we are seeing

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Speaker 1: a lot of civilians getting killed or injured or unable

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Speaker 1: to flee whenever that's happening. So that's where a lot

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Speaker 1: of the eyes of the world and the same thing

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Speaker 1: in the strategic city of Odessa. There continues to be

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Speaker 1: heavy fighting, but there was no major change in the

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Speaker 1: overall battle picture. The most important thing came with the

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Speaker 1: breaking news that we brought you at the top of

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Speaker 1: our show yesterday about some Russian demands in which they

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Speaker 1: said that they could find a ceasefire. And the demands

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Speaker 1: that they laid out are murky because on the one

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Speaker 1: hand they sound a bit reasonable. Here's what they are.

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Speaker 1: Number one, Ukraine must recognize the Russian annexation of Crimea.

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Speaker 1: Number two, they must recognize the independence of those eastern

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Speaker 1: separatist regions that Dunantzk People's Republic and the Hants People's Republic.

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Speaker 1: But number three is where things got murky. So they

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Speaker 1: said that they wanted a constitutional amendment by Ukraine to

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Speaker 1: guarantee neutrality and now entrance into any block that would

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Speaker 1: include the European Union and into NATO. Now, if it

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Speaker 1: was just those three, I could see a reasonable deal

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Speaker 1: to be struck there. But there were also reports that

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Speaker 1: inside the room that there was a suggestion made that

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Speaker 1: the Ukrainians will continued to have to abide by quote demilitarization,

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Speaker 1: which is not going to happen after you've just invaded

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Speaker 1: their entire country. And two was about the political leadership

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Speaker 1: of the country itself, the suggestion that Zelenski might be

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Speaker 1: able to stay as some sort of puppet prime minister

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Speaker 1: or president, but then that Russia could install the man

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Speaker 1: who actually runs a country. Obviously, that's just a frank,

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Speaker 1: total non starter. And the Ukrainian President Zelenski was asked

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Speaker 1: about this on ABC News yesterday. Let's take a listen

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Speaker 1: to his full response when the Kremlin says these three

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Speaker 1: conditions to end the war, that you must give up

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Speaker 1: on joining NATO, recognize Crimea as part of Russia, and

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Speaker 1: recognize the independence of those two separatist regions in the east.

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Speaker 1: To Vladimir pu who will get this message from you,

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Speaker 1: you say it's a non starter. Not willing to those

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Speaker 1: three conditions right now. The question is more difficult than

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Speaker 1: simply acknowledging them. This is another ultimatum, and we are

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Speaker 1: not prepared for ultimatums. But we have the possible solution,

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Speaker 1: resolution for these three items key items. What needs to

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Speaker 1: be done is for President put In to start talking,

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Speaker 1: start the dialogue instead of living in the informational bubble

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Speaker 1: without oxygen. I think that's why he is. He is

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Speaker 1: in this bubble, is getting this information, and you don't

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Speaker 1: know how realistic that information is that he's getting. So

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Speaker 1: that was the response from President Zelenski saying that Putin

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Speaker 1: is delusional. I think he could be referring to some

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Speaker 1: of those more secretive parts of what's being talked about

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Speaker 1: in those rooms. There's also been some crazy developments there.

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Speaker 1: But overall, there's a statement from Dmitri Pescov that came yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Let's put that up there on the screen. He said

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Speaker 1: that Russia will stop quote in a moment, if they

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Speaker 1: meet those terms. But as we said, what those terms

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Speaker 1: are and what they mean is very very nebulous. It

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Speaker 1: may sound reasonable and might, they might say, but then

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Speaker 1: in terms of what the full demand and what it

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Speaker 1: would look like in practice, means that a stop in

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Speaker 1: the fighting crystal is not going to come anytime soon.

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Speaker 1: And obviously, just every single day this continues, a tension

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Speaker 1: between our two countries, the United States and Russia, continues

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Speaker 1: but people are dying. I mean that really is of course,

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Speaker 1: you know, the chief people we should be concerned. And

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Speaker 1: the civilian situation on the ground in Ukraine is just

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Speaker 1: continuing to worsen, not only because of Russian shelling in

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Speaker 1: certain parts of the country, but because you also have

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Speaker 1: the number I saw was a thousand villages and cities

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Speaker 1: that now are without any sort of power, electric, water,

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Speaker 1: you're talking food shortages. So even on those sorts of metrics,

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Speaker 1: especially in the city of Maria Paul, you have people

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Speaker 1: who are really struggling and suffering right now, and that

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Speaker 1: is one of the ways that Russia is putting pressure

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Speaker 1: on Ukraine to try to force their capitulation. You know,

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Speaker 1: on the deal quote unquote that was offered here by Russia.

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Speaker 1: Murky as it is. I think you're right from our

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Speaker 1: perspective that if it really was, okay, you can have CRIMEA, Okay,

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Speaker 1: you can have the Eastern separatist republics, and okay, fine,

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Speaker 1: we'll put a constitutional amendment in to agree not to

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Speaker 1: join any block. From my perspective, that's the best deal

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Speaker 1: you could get. Because listen, I understand kept autonomy though

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Speaker 1: over the rest of exactly so, but I also understand

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Speaker 1: from the Ukrainian perspective how they don't see that to

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Speaker 1: be a reasonable deal at all. I mean, I don't

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Speaker 1: think we would if we're talking about the US feel

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Speaker 1: too great about just agreeing like, okay, you can have Florida,

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Speaker 1: and you know you can have a couple other states

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Speaker 1: as well, California. Sorry, see ya. So I'm not sure

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Speaker 1: even if it was just just quote unquote those pieces,

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Speaker 1: that the Ukrainians would agree even to that. But then

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Speaker 1: you layer on top of that demilitarization forget it. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you were just invaded. There's no way that you're going

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Speaker 1: to agree to lay down all of your weapons and

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Speaker 1: completely disarm the Russians. The way they spin this as

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Speaker 1: they say, we really are right now finishing the demilitarization

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Speaker 1: of Ukraine. We will finish it. So they're saying, listen,

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Speaker 1: we've got that part taken care of. We've almost demilitarized

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Speaker 1: the whole thing. That belies what you know the reporting

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Speaker 1: on the ground is, which is that Ukrainian resistance has

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Speaker 1: been greatly bolstered, of course by US and other NATO allies.

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Speaker 1: They also have been much logistically and tactically smarter and

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Speaker 1: sounder than the Russians. I was actually just reading this

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Speaker 1: morning that the things that you know, you never know

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Speaker 1: you're going to learn until it comes to a crisis

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Speaker 1: like this. The Russian military is very dependent on rail,

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Speaker 1: and especially because I guess the situation with roads and

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Speaker 1: Russia is not always the best. So when it comes

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Speaker 1: to rail and when it comes to their own country,

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Speaker 1: they're very very strong. But once you get outside a

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Speaker 1: large network of rail yards, that's when you start to

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Speaker 1: have problems. And then, of course, as we've been tracking

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Speaker 1: since this didn't go as quickly as they thought, they

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Speaker 1: really weren't provisioned for the long term, and so that's

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Speaker 1: why you've seen, you know, trouble with fuel, trouble with food,

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Speaker 1: trouble with morale. I was also reading most Western countries

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Speaker 1: have a sort of system where from the ground you're

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Speaker 1: sending back reports of Okay, we need these supplies, we

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Speaker 1: need these provisions. Russia tends to operate more on a

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Speaker 1: sort of push system, where there's like a regular basis

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Speaker 1: that they're trying to resupply troops and ration troops, and

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Speaker 1: that because this has gone on longer than they ultimately expected,

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Speaker 1: they didn't achieve their objectives in the timeframe that they thought.

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Speaker 1: That has also been a problem in terms of reprovisioning.

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Speaker 1: And so all that being said, the fact of the

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Speaker 1: matter is, even though the Ukrainians have put up a

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Speaker 1: fierce resistance that was more than most analysts expected, the

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Speaker 1: bulk of the military might still lies on the right side.

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Speaker 1: Most analysts still think it's a matter of time before

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Speaker 1: they take Kiev, before they you know, take Odessa and

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Speaker 1: actually achieve the objectives in terms of the cities that

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Speaker 1: they want to claim here. So that's why when we're

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Speaker 1: looking from the outside and we're like giving up Crimea

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Speaker 1: and the Eastern separatist republics, that might not be great,

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Speaker 1: but that's probably the best that you could possibly get

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Speaker 1: if you put aside the other pieces, the giving up

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Speaker 1: having the puppet government, the demilitarization. So listen, that's why

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Speaker 1: this is at a standstill, and we're likely to face

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Speaker 1: a long sort of grinding civil war, insurgency kind of dynamical. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that's the key point. And I want to

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Speaker 1: say this too the Ukrainians eye. Look, I would fight

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Speaker 1: like hell if I were you. I get it. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm you know, just an outside observer. We're interested in

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Speaker 1: peace and we have our own grand strategic achievement, so

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Speaker 1: you know, you do you and ultimately it's your country.

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Speaker 1: That's the problem, which I think is that they are

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Speaker 1: going to find it just so incredibly difficult to not

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Speaker 1: succumb to any deal without being guaranteed their actual sovereignty.

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Speaker 1: And at this point, I mean, you've been invaded, like

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Speaker 1: you don't have any reason. And this is why I

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Speaker 1: just don't see any situation. There's no face save whenever

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Speaker 1: it comes to Putin and saying when it comes to Zelenski,

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Speaker 1: he's a proud man and the people around him too.

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Speaker 1: As long as he's alive and he's the president of Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: As long as Putin is alive and he's the president,

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Speaker 1: this thing is going to go on for years, and

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Speaker 1: we're gonna see some sort of gorilla insurgency. You know,

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Speaker 1: war is about attrition, but you know, the Russians are

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Speaker 1: finding out some of the things that people have found

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Speaker 1: out the hard way when they invaded them. That term

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Speaker 1: you're talking about, for the reason why they're so reliant

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Speaker 1: on mechanized rail is because of something called Rasputitsa, which

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Speaker 1: is the term of the muddy season. Now this matters.

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Speaker 1: I just read Andrew Roberts's history of the Second World

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Speaker 1: War and this was something that bit the Germans in

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Speaker 1: the ass during this Battle of Stalingrad, and they were like, hey,

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Speaker 1: none of our mechanized mechanized tanks work. We're literally stuck

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Speaker 1: in the mud. Oh, and that's how two million people

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Speaker 1: froze in a field in Stalingrad. So it's something that

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Speaker 1: they're now repeating the mistake of people who've invaded them

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Speaker 1: from the east. And Napoleon as well, apparently it happened

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Speaker 1: to him. And the term is so famous that it's

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Speaker 1: a military terminology and has its own page and everything.

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Speaker 1: I think it matters though, because the hubris that the

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Speaker 1: Russian military displayed in this episode is they have forgotten

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Speaker 1: the lessons of their own experience in Afghanistan. They have

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Speaker 1: forgotten their lessons of their own experience in Chechhniya, and

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Speaker 1: they have forgotten the experience of the United States in Vietnam,

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Speaker 1: of the United States in Afghanistan, and the United States

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Speaker 1: in Iraq. We keep going back to Iraq. Look, it's

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Speaker 1: only been what fourteen days something like that since the invasion.

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Speaker 1: It took three weeks for the US to cruise to

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Speaker 1: bag Dead and we bombed the hell out of that

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Speaker 1: country with Shakanah. And then it took ten what twelve

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Speaker 1: months before the insurgency really began really to form, and

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Speaker 1: within two years he had a full blown civil war.

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Speaker 1: By my last count, they had two hundred thousand troops

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Speaker 1: in the country at the highest. We had one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty thousand in Iraq, and Iraq was roughly similar

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Speaker 1: there to the size of Ukraine. So good luck, I mean,

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Speaker 1: you broke it, you bought it. You're going to be

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Speaker 1: dealing with this for many years to come. What happened

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Speaker 1: in Syria is much more likely to happen here in Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: Big population, lots of weapons flowing in from all you know,

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Speaker 1: different various foreign interests, a collapse into foreign fighters. It's

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Speaker 1: happening too, you know, Like you said, there are many

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Speaker 1: Eastern Europeans who are going apparently there's some Americans going

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Speaker 1: over there. Chechens on both sets. Chechens are flooding in

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Speaker 1: or kind of the shock troops of a lot of

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Speaker 1: the Russian military. So look, this is turning into a

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Speaker 1: massive mess. The accident accidental guerrilla syndrome which is that

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Speaker 1: you know, you create a bunch of gorillas by invading

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Speaker 1: the country and then pushing them to the most extreme elements.

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Speaker 1: All seems incredibly likely with all of this, and the

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Speaker 1: more brutal you are towards civilians, the more gorilla is

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Speaker 1: you're going to ultimately create. I mean, this was another

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Speaker 1: lesson that the Soviets should have learned in Afghanistan, because

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Speaker 1: those were the dynamics there. And I think there's one

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Speaker 1: other factor that is going to you know, one more

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Speaker 1: obstacle in the way of any kind of a negotiated

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Speaker 1: settlement here, which is that the Ukrainian people really believe

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Speaker 1: that they can outright win. Ye I saw a pole.

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Speaker 1: I mean, any polling during this time is highly unreliable,

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Speaker 1: but I did see a pole that said eighty percent

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Speaker 1: of Ukrainians think they can outright win. And so if

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Speaker 1: you think, like, oh, we're winning this thing and we're

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Speaker 1: going to be able to repel the invaders, then you're

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Speaker 1: not in a mood to compromise on anything. So I

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Speaker 1: think that is another thing that you know, I understand,

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Speaker 1: like obviously they've been heartened by the response by their

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Speaker 1: ability to keep Russia out of Kiev, keep Russia out

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Speaker 1: of Odessa, repel them in key places. But the fact

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Speaker 1: that they are convinced that they can, over the long term,

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Speaker 1: completely prevail here in the next few weeks, that's going

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Speaker 1: to prevent any sort of significant concessions. And let's be clear, though,

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Speaker 1: would have to be really significant concessions in order to

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Speaker 1: have any kind of negotiated settlement. I completely agree. I

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Speaker 1: know this may sound trite, but I always think about

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Speaker 1: the scene from Gladiator whenever they're like people should know

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Speaker 1: when they're conquered, and he's like would you, He's like

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Speaker 1: would I? Yeah, And look it's a good point. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: And look the civilians are the ones who are paying

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Speaker 1: the price. Let's put this up there on the screen.

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Speaker 1: As of yesterday, well this was about the third round

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Speaker 1: of talks, going to put the next one up there.

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Speaker 1: In terms of the refugees from the UN Human Rights Council,

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Speaker 1: they said one point seven million people have fled from Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: Actually that number just got updated right now, and in

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Speaker 1: twelve days, only twelve days as this conflict has happened,

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Speaker 1: we've had two million people flee the country, a country

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Speaker 1: a forty four million, So you could see there there.

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Speaker 1: I think it's like five something percent or whatever. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's just going to continue to increase over the next

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Speaker 1: couple of years. And that's the same thing. You know

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Speaker 1: Syria two point zero. A lot of people fled in

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Speaker 1: the beginning. The worst thing's got more and more people

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Speaker 1: to fled, cause massive geopolitical instability all across the Middle

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Speaker 1: East and in Europe. Now you know, same thing whenever

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Speaker 1: it comes to Europe, it's this is going to be

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Speaker 1: a long and a grinding war days. It's just not

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Speaker 1: that long amount of time. I mean, almost every conflict

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Speaker 1: lasts for minimum of like one year. Very short war

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Speaker 1: is extraordinarily rare. The shortest ones can be several months.

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Speaker 1: And that's when you have an outright strategic objective being taken,

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Speaker 1: which does not look likely for the Russians. So it's

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Speaker 1: a bad situation. On those refugees. Yesterday, when the numbers

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Speaker 1: were one point seven million refugees, I looked up where

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Speaker 1: they were predominantly going to, and it's overwhelmingly to Poland.

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Speaker 1: So when it was one point seven million refugees, one

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Speaker 1: million plus of those were in Poland alone. The next

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Speaker 1: largest single country was Hungary at one hundred and eighty thousand,

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Speaker 1: then Slovakia at one hundred and twenty eight thousand, and

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Speaker 1: down the list of ways was Russia at fifty three thousand.

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Speaker 1: You know, that was another thing from the talks yesterday,

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Speaker 1: because they did the two sides did meet and you know,

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Speaker 1: attempt to negotiate and have some sort of a diplomatic interaction.

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Speaker 1: And they said there was very limited progress, but they

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Speaker 1: did potentially make some progress on the humanitarian corridors so

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Speaker 1: more civilians could escape. And what the Ukrainians are saying

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Speaker 1: is that the Russians, the escape routs, the corridors they

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Speaker 1: wanted to open up were for people to go to

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Speaker 1: Russian Yeah. Right. The Ukrainians are like, I don't think

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Speaker 1: that much of our population is really to some of them.

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Speaker 1: Some of them. I mean, you can see by this

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Speaker 1: number what the proportion is. You've got a million refugees

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Speaker 1: in Poland, you got fifty three thousand in Russia according

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Speaker 1: to those numbers. But yeah, so that was that was

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Speaker 1: kind of a non starter in terms of the actual roots.

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Speaker 1: But they say there was some minor progress made, so

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Speaker 1: we'll hope that civilians are able to evacuate if they

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Speaker 1: want to there you go. All right, well, let's get

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Speaker 1: to gas. All right, this is vague news. We got

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Speaker 1: some breaking news though, Crystal, I just want to inform you. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it just came across the wire that the US will

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Speaker 1: be banning imports of Russian oil. Wow, literally broke just

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Speaker 1: the second. Really relevant is that from Biden? This is

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Speaker 1: from the This is being leaked out to the White

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Speaker 1: House press corps, from Bloomberg, Jennifer Jacobs scoop us to

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Speaker 1: band Russian imports White House announcement as soon as today. Wow,

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Speaker 1: that's gonna have a massive impact on what we're about

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Speaker 1: to talk. Yes, so yesterday gas prices hit an all

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Speaker 1: time high at four dollars and six cents for national average.

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Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and put the numbers up on the screen.

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Speaker 1: This morning, it has already spiked again. What are we

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Speaker 1: up to now? So our four seventeen yeah, or seventeen

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Speaker 1: in terms of the gas price here this morning. So

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Speaker 1: we've never seen this before. And obviously looking at this map,

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Speaker 1: so the red states are the places where its highest.

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Speaker 1: West Coast Alaska, California, and Hawaii. Also the northeast has

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Speaker 1: high prices and Illinois apparently, and then you have this

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Speaker 1: swath down the middle where the prices are lower. But

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Speaker 1: when you're talking about lower, you're still talking about three

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Speaker 1: dollars and seventy five cents in places like Texas and Oklahoma.

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Speaker 1: So this is a I mean, this is just brutal.

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Speaker 1: There's no way to spin it. It's absolutely devastating to

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Speaker 1: working class people. Not only obviously are the ones who

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Speaker 1: have limited means, whose pocketbooks and wages have already been

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Speaker 1: depleted by inflation by the way, we're supposed to get

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Speaker 1: new inflation numbers out this week, but they're also the

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Speaker 1: people who tend to have to live a ways away

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Speaker 1: from where they work. So they're also most dependent on

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Speaker 1: their cars because you can't afford, oftentimes to live in

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Speaker 1: the city where your job actually is, and our public

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Speaker 1: transit is total shit, so people are reliant. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's the reality. So people are having to drive miles

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Speaker 1: and miles and miles from wherever their home is because

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Speaker 1: they're priced down of the neighborhood where the jobs actually are.

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Speaker 1: And so this hits the working class extremely, extremely hard.

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Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and put this next piece up on

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Speaker 1: the screen, because it gives you a little bit of

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Speaker 1: the overall economic picture, Wall Street is starting to really

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Speaker 1: downgrade their forecasts of where the S and P five

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Speaker 1: hundred and the stock market is going to end up

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Speaker 1: at the end of this year as oil prices surge,

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Speaker 1: and so, to give you the sort of big picture,

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Speaker 1: you had huge stock market declines. Yesterday, Dow Jones Industrial

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Speaker 1: Average lost about eight hundred points. You had the SMP

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Speaker 1: five hundred declined close to three percent in one day,

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Speaker 1: falling deeper into correction territory. You had the NASDAK losing

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Speaker 1: three point six percent. The NASDAK now sits in bear

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Speaker 1: market territory, more than twenty percent from its all time close.

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Speaker 1: You have Brent crude, which of course is like the

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Speaker 1: thing that everybody always looks at, spiking to one hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty nine dollars and thirteen cents per barrel. That's

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Speaker 1: its highest amount since July two thousand and eight. That's

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Speaker 1: before you know the Russian oil band. And you also

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Speaker 1: have on top of all of this, you have a

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Speaker 1: FED that is still because inflation is very high, expecting

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Speaker 1: to lift rates and that is coming very soon. So

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Speaker 1: you've got you know, good jobs numbers last week, but

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Speaker 1: wages decimated by inflation further decimated specifically by gas prices.

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Speaker 1: You have a stock market that is lapsing due to

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Speaker 1: oil prices increasing and geopolitical instability, and also the Fed

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Speaker 1: still planning to raise rates because of that inflation, and

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Speaker 1: it is a very very dire picture on the Russian

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Speaker 1: oil ban front. Yesterday, there were some there's a broad

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Speaker 1: bipartisan consensus around this, not only among politicians but also

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Speaker 1: among Americans who really want to stand with the Ukrainians,

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Speaker 1: really want to feel like we're doing something, and so

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Speaker 1: basically anything short of actually troops on the ground, Americans

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Speaker 1: are overwhelmingly in a bipartisan fashion in favor of and

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Speaker 1: that goes for banning Russian oil. Now will that support

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Speaker 1: continue when it hits their pocketbook and gas prices continue

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Speaker 1: to go up? And I do want to say, I mean,

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Speaker 1: even when you ask people, okay, if this means the

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Speaker 1: gas prices go up, are you still in favor of it?

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Speaker 1: They still are. But the abstract theoretical possibility is very

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Speaker 1: different than oh, I can't make rent, and I can't

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Speaker 1: fill up my gas tank and I can't put food

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Speaker 1: on the table. So the fact that we are going

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Speaker 1: forward with this Russian oil ban is a massive, massively,

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Speaker 1: huge consequential deal. You had Democrats in the House yesterday

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Speaker 1: kind of putting pressure on the Biden administration that has

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Speaker 1: been more resistant to doing the oil ban because they're

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Speaker 1: concerned about some of these follow on consequences, which is

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Speaker 1: why they're reaching out to Venezuela while they're reaching out

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Speaker 1: to you know, they're continuing to negotiate on the Iran deal,

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Speaker 1: and they're reaching out to reportedly Saudi, which of course

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Speaker 1: is way worse humanitarian abuser than Russia is at the moment,

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Speaker 1: but they know that gas prices are going to be

429
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:46,679
Speaker 1: a massive problem for them political, politically, and possible driver

430
00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:50,359
Speaker 1: of domestic instability. But Democrats in the House kind of

431
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 1: force their hand on this, and now we see that

432
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:55,240
Speaker 1: they are in fact caving in being in Russian oil.

433
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:59,359
Speaker 1: This is breaking, obviously, and so the how monumental this

434
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:01,680
Speaker 1: is is really hard to overstate. I mean, in terms

435
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:03,479
Speaker 1: of the amount of crude that we actually get from

436
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,360
Speaker 1: the Russians, it's not necessarily that high. Estimates range from

437
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 1: three to ten percent. I was reading though yesterday that

438
00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:11,399
Speaker 1: the island Hawaii is going to get decimated by this

439
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 1: about twenty five percent at worst of times of their

440
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 1: gas actually does come from Russia ices and they have

441
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 1: high prices anyway. I think the average price there you

442
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:20,679
Speaker 1: can check on the map is like four to seventy

443
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 1: already a gallon. Now you mentioned the Europeans for seventy two. Yep,

444
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 1: there you go. Wow, look at me. Let's go ahead

445
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:28,480
Speaker 1: and put this next one up there on the screen

446
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 1: in terms of the German chancellor. So this is also

447
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 1: very important around how the EU is going to handle

448
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,879
Speaker 1: this because, as I mentioned there yesterday, the European Union

449
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:41,399
Speaker 1: and China actually import the vast majority of Russia's crude oil,

450
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,840
Speaker 1: so that's where it would have the biggest impact in

451
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:47,480
Speaker 1: terms of a band. Germany, highly reliant on Russian energy,

452
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:51,159
Speaker 1: especially gas, natural gas and as well as oil, is

453
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,680
Speaker 1: pushing back on the idea of an import band. However,

454
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,959
Speaker 1: I would remind you that Germany was one of the

455
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:02,160
Speaker 1: initial people to push back on kicking Russia off of Swift,

456
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 1: But as the Western allies increasingly pressured them and more,

457
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 1: it came to a deal where the Germans actually acquiesced

458
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 1: and not only killed Northstream too, but kicked Russia out

459
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,520
Speaker 1: of that Swift, including the Central bank sanctions and more.

460
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,679
Speaker 1: This is another way too, where the bipartisan hawkishness in

461
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 1: Washington in Congress basically forced President Biden's hand. Those reporting

462
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 1: we're both reading last night that the President was well,

463
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,400
Speaker 1: he was on the edge on whether the Russian oil

464
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 1: ban actually made any sense, but Congress was about to

465
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,720
Speaker 1: pass its own law which would force his hand and

466
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 1: probably would have a veto proof majority. Now this may

467
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 1: be unpopular for me to say, but I think we

468
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:43,719
Speaker 1: should all step back and consider the consequences of this.

469
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 1: Number One, is everyone really prepared to pay five dollars

470
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:50,679
Speaker 1: five dollars a gallon for gas? I just checked. The

471
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:54,119
Speaker 1: average tank size in the United States is somewhere between

472
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 1: twelve and fifteen gallons, So right now it is costing,

473
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 1: on average to fully fill your tank between fifty to

474
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:04,400
Speaker 1: sixty dollars. That's a lot of money considering how much

475
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 1: you often you're driving. Depending on that, obviously, then let's

476
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 1: kick it up to five dollars. So you're really telling

477
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 1: me that you're willing to pay sixty to sixty five

478
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:17,880
Speaker 1: gallons on average in this country. This excludes California, where

479
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,399
Speaker 1: there are already many places where there are gas prices

480
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 1: already up to six dollars. We're talking about a massive tax.

481
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 1: I mentioned yesterday. California, twelve percent of the US population

482
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:30,879
Speaker 1: lives there. They have an average gas price right now

483
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 1: a five point forty a gallon. Yeah. I mean, if

484
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 1: you see six point fifty seven dollars out there and

485
00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:40,359
Speaker 1: a national price average of five point fifty, that's crazy town.

486
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 1: And look, go ahead and throw this next one up there.

487
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:46,879
Speaker 1: Look at what's happening over in Europe. They're currently trading

488
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 1: at five hundred a barrel in terms of the equivalent.

489
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:53,400
Speaker 1: This is natural gas. But this matters because it comes

490
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 1: down to heating. Now. Luckily, you know, it's getting a

491
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:58,520
Speaker 1: little bit warmer here and the heating prices aren't going

492
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 1: to be the same. But these things have a long

493
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 1: standing impact in the way that we not only heed

494
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,680
Speaker 1: our houses but produce energy for natural gas fired power plants.

495
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 1: A huge amount of energy for the United States comes

496
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:12,880
Speaker 1: from that. In terms of the data that I've looked at,

497
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:17,880
Speaker 1: there are long standing, massive economic consequences, and you laid

498
00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 1: out the picture perfectly, which is it's not just gas.

499
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:23,200
Speaker 1: And my home monologue is on this. We have record

500
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 1: high food prices the developing world is going to see

501
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 1: double digit food inflation. This is the stuff of riots

502
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 1: and destabilization. Red prices directly related to the likelihood of

503
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 1: riots and domestic instability. There you go. We all know this.

504
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 1: I mean, we are truly entering a period not just

505
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 1: of the nineteen seventies, which I'm drawing analogy too, of

506
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 1: the nineteen tens, of like the crazy recessions of the

507
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 1: Silver Times in nineteen twenty. I cannot overstate this. The

508
00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 1: other thing from a grand strategic point of view, Let's

509
00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 1: think about it this way. If Russia invade's a NATO ally,

510
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:55,400
Speaker 1: now what do we have left short of war? I mean, look,

511
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 1: we were going to go to war anyway whenever it

512
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,159
Speaker 1: came to NATO. But let's say whenever it came to

513
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:03,440
Speaker 1: some other country, which is around then I think it

514
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 1: might actually be or maybe I'm thinking of Montenegro. I

515
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:09,359
Speaker 1: forget anyway, one of those countries non NATO country. What

516
00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 1: do we have left in our arsenal? We have nothing.

517
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 1: I mean, oil band is about as big as it gets.

518
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:18,440
Speaker 1: We've sanctioned their central bank, We've effectively canceled them through

519
00:27:18,480 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 1: our sanctions, through the entire global financial system. Oil was

520
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:25,160
Speaker 1: the last tool in our arsenal. So we have now

521
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 1: thrown the full playbook at Russia and we are all

522
00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 1: going to suffer deep consequences. I saw somebody jokingly say

523
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 1: online yesterday, Joe Biden is making the great mistake that

524
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:38,640
Speaker 1: many presidents have made, letting foreign affairs affect the comfort

525
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 1: of Americans. And unfortunately I do think that that is true.

526
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 1: Which is that Look, even my own friends, the people

527
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,359
Speaker 1: who are not political, everybody's got a story of watching

528
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 1: the gas price in the neighborhood go up twenty since

529
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 1: a day. And this is getting deeply, deeply hurt on

530
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:56,879
Speaker 1: the pocket book level. And also discretionary spending. You know,

531
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 1: a lot of small businesses just went through the ringer

532
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 1: and they are depending on discretionary spending being high. But

533
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:05,040
Speaker 1: if food, rent, and gas are going to suck up

534
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:07,960
Speaker 1: what sixty five seventy percent of your paycheck, what are

535
00:28:08,000 --> 00:28:09,680
Speaker 1: you gonna do? You're gonna sit at home and do nothing?

536
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 1: You know, yes, absolutely, And I also have to layer

537
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 1: on top of this, Biden is like everybody needs to

538
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 1: go back to work in the office. It's like we

539
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 1: can point the people. I mean, that's more of a

540
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:23,440
Speaker 1: white collar problem. But still I gave that exactly, So yeah,

541
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:25,639
Speaker 1: and I mean there's also I want to talk a

542
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:28,119
Speaker 1: little bit more about Germany because I think this is

543
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 1: really important because they're not just saying like, ah, we're

544
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:33,359
Speaker 1: we're not team players here and we don't want to

545
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 1: go along with what you guys are all doing. Jeremy's

546
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 1: chancellor said Europe has deliberately exempted energy supplies from Russia

547
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 1: from sanctions. Supplying Europe with energy for heat generation, mobility,

548
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: electricity supply and industry cannot be secured in any other

549
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 1: way at the moment, he's saying, we literally can't do it.

550
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 1: It is therefore of essential importance for the provisional public

551
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 1: services and the daily lives of our citizens. So they're saying, guys,

552
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 1: we we cannot do this, Like maybe we made mistakes

553
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 1: in the past and being to dependent on Russia, but

554
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 1: we are where we are and we have no way

555
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 1: to make up this supply. I saw an estimate that

556
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 1: they would have to reduce their consumption. Europe would have

557
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 1: to cut demand by as much as fifteen percent to

558
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 1: make it through the next winter in the event of

559
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 1: a full cutoff of Russian supply. Okay, that's a huge

560
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 1: chunk fifteen percent. And listen, we may just become an

561
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 1: out of winner right now and feel like winter's a

562
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 1: long way off, but it will be here before you

563
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 1: know it. Their natural gas prices in Europe today right

564
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 1: now are fourteen times what ours are here. If any

565
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 1: of you use natural gas in your homes, you already

566
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: know how expensive it is, so fourteen times the price.

567
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 1: This is hugely consequential. And so it's gonna hurt European people,

568
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 1: working class people, it's going to hurt American working class people.

569
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 1: It's going to devas date Russia, including their ordinary citizens

570
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 1: who are already getting being hit hard by these sanctions.

571
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 1: And it's not clear at all that is a smart

572
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,880
Speaker 1: tactical play. In fact, part of what we've been talking

573
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 1: about is the way that these aggressive moves, which remember

574
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 1: Russia considers to be acts of war at least rhetorically,

575
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 1: and has said that, have said that, and I think

576
00:30:23,480 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 1: at this point we should all listen very closely to

577
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 1: what they are saying. That these things can further escalate

578
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 1: the situation because your opponent always gets to say in

579
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 1: what the next move is, in how they respond to

580
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 1: our actions here, so I know that we are not

581
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:45,200
Speaker 1: in the majority sentiment of the country, but I think

582
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:47,880
Speaker 1: this is a foolish move. I think it is a

583
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 1: disaster for US. I think it's disaster for the world.

584
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 1: I think it's a disaster for Russia. And I think

585
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 1: it only makes it more likely that this situation is

586
00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: going to escalate beyond Ukraine. Yeah, I think it's very

587
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 1: possible that in terms of the escalation, But in terms

588
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 1: of domestic impact, I don't think we can underestimate what

589
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 1: it means to have a country with five dollars fifty

590
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:09,320
Speaker 1: average gas price. That's just crazy. I mean, and let's

591
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 1: say it hit six I just checked last year the

592
00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 1: number was eight percent. I said, at any time, it's

593
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:16,360
Speaker 1: between three and ten percent. Do we have any guarantees

594
00:31:16,360 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 1: about who's gonna replace all that gas? I mean, as

595
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 1: we pointed out, we don't necessarily have the refining capacity

596
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 1: and we could drill right now. It takes any between

597
00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 1: six and eighteen months in order to get that stuff up.

598
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:29,239
Speaker 1: So what's gonna happen in the meantime? I mean, are

599
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 1: the Venezuelan's gonna pump? I wouldn't if I were them.

600
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,959
Speaker 1: They're gonna demand sanctions relief, which you know, look at

601
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 1: our Congress, you think they're gonna allow that to happen.

602
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 1: Same whenever it comes to the Saudis. I mean, the

603
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 1: Saudis are giggling in riodd because they love the fact that,

604
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 1: you know, we punish them over the Koushogi killing and

605
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 1: diplomatically isolated them, and they've been holding back for a

606
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 1: long time intentionally in order to screw us. They want

607
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 1: nothing more than to see Biden suffer domestically. So there's

608
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:56,880
Speaker 1: no guarantee we're gonna be able to replace that. That's

609
00:31:56,960 --> 00:32:00,040
Speaker 1: you know, eight somebody around eight percent on average of

610
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 1: our national crude oil, especially when we're already in a

611
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 1: crisis like this one, I would just say, even if

612
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 1: you do support this and defunding the Russian war machine,

613
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 1: number one, I do think that we should have held

614
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 1: it back for something that could have come in the future,

615
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 1: something of the most maximalist action. And then number two,

616
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 1: I just do not think anybody is considering the major

617
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 1: domestic ramifications of this. You know, it seemed like a

618
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 1: good idea in two thousand and two to pass a

619
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 1: Patriot Act and do all kinds of stuff when there

620
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,280
Speaker 1: was a real mania in the air, and look how

621
00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 1: it all turned out for everybody. No it's not exactly

622
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 1: one to one, but it just goes to show you

623
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:39,760
Speaker 1: that in these times of you know, moving, of fast

624
00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:44,280
Speaker 1: moving and emotional consideration, there needs to be people who

625
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 1: pump the brakes. Our system of government is supposed to

626
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 1: be for that. And this is one of the reason

627
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 1: I's some one annoyed with Congress, which is foreign affairs

628
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 1: is supposed to be up to the president, and Congress

629
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 1: is forcing President Biden's hand on this. And you also,

630
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 1: and this is what I'm looking at in my monologue,

631
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 1: you have a media that primes the pump for people

632
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 1: to push for more, to push for the most escalatory behavior,

633
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:10,240
Speaker 1: the most hawkish behavior. There's never anyone. You won't hear

634
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 1: anyone on cable news saying here's how this is going

635
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 1: to play out, and here's why this is a bad idea,

636
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 1: and here's why we should be more reticent of going

637
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:22,880
Speaker 1: to all out economic warfare, which is what these moves

638
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:27,600
Speaker 1: really constitute. So it's this is a huge deal, guys,

639
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 1: and it's going to completely reshape our politics and global politics.

640
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 1: There's no question way to say it. That's it. I

641
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 1: think that's a good way to segue actually into the

642
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 1: very latest indications of how people are feeling about President Biden.

643
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 1: We've got some conflicting signals here, to say the least,

644
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 1: let's put the good news for the president up here. First.

645
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 1: NBR Marris poll had a significant bump for him following

646
00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 1: the State of the Union. If you can see there

647
00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:55,800
Speaker 1: down in the corner of the screen of the charts,

648
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,800
Speaker 1: you see with every group basically like a spike in

649
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 1: their approval ry. You know, it still at forty seven percent.

650
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 1: That's up eight points from the NPR poll last month,

651
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,480
Speaker 1: so still not over fifty percent, but in modern time,

652
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 1: forty seven percent is pretty decent. That would put him

653
00:34:13,280 --> 00:34:17,040
Speaker 1: back to where he was before the Afghan withdrawal, when

654
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:20,399
Speaker 1: he really started to sort of take on water. Since

655
00:34:20,480 --> 00:34:23,399
Speaker 1: nineteen seventy eight, there have only been six times when

656
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 1: a president saw an approval rating improved four points or

657
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:28,879
Speaker 1: more following State of the Union addresses. Three of those

658
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 1: bounces were apparently before Bill Clinton, whose famous orator somewhat

659
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 1: less renowned Joe Biden is somewhat less renowned for his

660
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:41,280
Speaker 1: He it was actually pretty much oratory skills Ukraine handling.

661
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:43,360
Speaker 1: And you know, when you dig down to the numbers,

662
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:47,399
Speaker 1: all of his numbers in this particular pole have jumped up.

663
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 1: So his handling of the situation in Ukraine was up

664
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 1: eighteen points to fifty two percent. His handling of coronavirus

665
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,800
Speaker 1: had jumped up to fifty five percent, that's up eight points.

666
00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:59,440
Speaker 1: His handling of the economy had jumped up eight points

667
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:02,640
Speaker 1: to forty five five percent. And you know, Americans kind

668
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 1: of split overall when you ask them whether his approach

669
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,319
Speaker 1: on Ukraine has been about right or too cautious. Only

670
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 1: six percent say what we're saying, which is too aggressive.

671
00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:13,480
Speaker 1: But overall this paints a very good picture of how

672
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 1: people responded to the speech and are responding to his

673
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 1: moves with regard to Ukraine. Let's take a look at

674
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:24,359
Speaker 1: the average from five point thirty eight, because we all

675
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 1: know that looking at one single pole is a very

676
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 1: foolish thing to do. Even looking at the average of

677
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 1: poles sometimes is a very foolish thing to do. With

678
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,439
Speaker 1: so only indications we have, you can see he's got

679
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: a little bump here. He was down at like forty

680
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 1: percent approve and with some of the new polling post

681
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 1: date of the Union, he's up to about forty two

682
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 1: percent approved, so we still significantly underwater. It does show

683
00:35:46,080 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 1: a little bit of a bump, but I do have

684
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 1: to say again to the cautionary note of looking at

685
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:54,640
Speaker 1: any one particular pole. There was a new Quinnipiac poll

686
00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 1: yesterday that had him at only thirty eight percent approve

687
00:35:57,000 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 1: and fifty one percent disapprove, which was almost completely unchanged

688
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 1: from their last poll. So there you go. And I

689
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:07,760
Speaker 1: think the other thing to consider here is the wave

690
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 1: that massively spiking gas prices, food prices, inflation, stock market crash.

691
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 1: All of those things are going to affect public sentiment.

692
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:19,319
Speaker 1: And you know, some of these things are Joe Biden's fault.

693
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:21,160
Speaker 1: Some of these things are not Joe Biden's fault. But

694
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter because he's in charge, and he's

695
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:26,399
Speaker 1: going to get the blame for people feeling like and

696
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 1: the reality that they cannot make ends meet and they

697
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,439
Speaker 1: are struggling and falling behind rather than getting ahead. Yeah.

698
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 1: I mean, everybody here knows I love a good historical parallel.

699
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 1: So I was thinking about it, which is that the

700
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety one presidential election, you know, days before. In

701
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:46,959
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety one, President Bush, at the height of the

702
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 1: First War with the rock the war against Addam Hussein

703
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:53,719
Speaker 1: over the invasion of Kuwaiti oil, feels has a at

704
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:57,160
Speaker 1: his height, let's see, eighty two percent approval rating and

705
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 1: goes on to lose historic failure and be owing only

706
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:05,840
Speaker 1: one president only about six hundred days later have a

707
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:09,840
Speaker 1: thirty two percent approval rating. So why does that happen? Everybody? Well,

708
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,800
Speaker 1: people were very impressed by the stand up a President

709
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 1: Bush of the successful operation of I'm blanking on the

710
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 1: Gulf War. Iget exactly what it was called desert storm.

711
00:37:20,680 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 1: There we go. Everybody was, you know, caught up in

712
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 1: schwartz cough and the desert storm and all that. And

713
00:37:25,760 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 1: then a recession hit. There was a variety of reasons asked,

714
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 1: actually why but the economic recession. HW Bush thought that

715
00:37:32,600 --> 00:37:35,840
Speaker 1: he could float on his prestige of his foreign policy chops.

716
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 1: I mean, look, under his presidency, the Berlin Wall came down,

717
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 1: the the you know, the the Cold War literally ended.

718
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,759
Speaker 1: It was the triumph of Reagan foreign policy. You know,

719
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:48,759
Speaker 1: the Gulf War, it was the unipolar moment. America was

720
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 1: strong on the world stage. And then boom Overnight, he

721
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 1: loses sixty percent of his approval rating. So how did

722
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 1: that happen? It happened because the ninety one and the

723
00:37:56,760 --> 00:38:00,800
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety recession was hurting people economically, and there was

724
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 1: a feeling that the president was out of touch with

725
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:06,320
Speaker 1: those daily realities. There's a famous scene right where he

726
00:38:06,360 --> 00:38:09,439
Speaker 1: didn't seem to know what the grocery scanner was. I mean,

727
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 1: these pocketbook issues are long standing. It's the economy stupid

728
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 1: was he's wasn't it the I didn't know the milk

729
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 1: price of milik? I think he was the price of milk. Yeah,

730
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 1: you're right, he didn't know which to be. I don't

731
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 1: even know. I think it was who didn't know the

732
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 1: grocery scanner? You might be right. I don't drink milk,

733
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:27,880
Speaker 1: so I can't tell you what the price of milk is.

734
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:30,680
Speaker 1: All of that is to say that there are presidents

735
00:38:30,680 --> 00:38:33,399
Speaker 1: in the past who, you know, having ridden the tide

736
00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 1: of public opinion, had very very high ones, and then

737
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 1: whenever it came down to election time when the economic

738
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:42,960
Speaker 1: consequences really started to hit people, and there was a feeling,

739
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:46,439
Speaker 1: as this president has had repeatedly now throughout his term

740
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:50,240
Speaker 1: that the president did not care about the actual things

741
00:38:50,239 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 1: that were hurting people at home. That Bill Clinton was

742
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 1: able to come in and destroy him. I think he

743
00:38:54,600 --> 00:38:57,279
Speaker 1: won over three hundred electoral votes, which is crazy, you know,

744
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 1: foreign incumbent president to go down in that regard. So

745
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:03,719
Speaker 1: on the twenty twenty two side, I think it's still

746
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:06,360
Speaker 1: probably obviously going to go against him in the same way,

747
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:08,279
Speaker 1: just because of how high the gas and the food

748
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:10,400
Speaker 1: price are going to be, and because the Dems you know,

749
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 1: didn't do anything in their first year in order to

750
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 1: do any of that, and really any of anything. And

751
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:19,879
Speaker 1: then you combine that with look, the number one thing

752
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:23,000
Speaker 1: before Ukraine started, what was the feeling the president does

753
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:24,879
Speaker 1: not care about the things that I care about. Yeah,

754
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:27,280
Speaker 1: the president does not care that things that I care about,

755
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:29,719
Speaker 1: over and over again, focus group after focus group after

756
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:35,240
Speaker 1: focus group. Now consider double digit food inflation gas inflation

757
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 1: on top of the Fed raising rates, and then you're

758
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:40,719
Speaker 1: about to lose the rich people because the stock market

759
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 1: is not crash. So everything is turning against you if

760
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:46,400
Speaker 1: you're Joe Biden, and I see a very you know,

761
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:49,800
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety type curve in his future. Let's also say

762
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:54,239
Speaker 1: that a great president can step into a crisis and

763
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 1: can enlist the American people in a national project and

764
00:39:59,640 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 1: a vision where they're able to then withstand the suffering

765
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:07,359
Speaker 1: of the present moment because they see the trajectory out

766
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 1: of it. I mean, this was the case with FDR right,

767
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 1: even things were still really difficult and really bad, but

768
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:17,439
Speaker 1: people saw the project and they were invested in this

769
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 1: national mission, and so they were hopeful and they were

770
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:25,319
Speaker 1: bought into it. This president, you know, we had an

771
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 1: opportunity with the State of the Union, and there are

772
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 1: some indications that that speech was well received. But I

773
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 1: don't know why you're not going all in on a

774
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:38,840
Speaker 1: national project of we are going to get off fossil fuel.

775
00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:41,840
Speaker 1: Here's where we're here's where we're creating the jobs. Here's

776
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:45,480
Speaker 1: where we're building the nuclear power plants. Here's the plan.

777
00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:47,759
Speaker 1: Here's how it's going to benefit you in the short term.

778
00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:49,800
Speaker 1: Here's how it's going to benefit you in the long term.

779
00:40:49,880 --> 00:40:52,759
Speaker 1: And I dare you, any of you Republicans or Joe

780
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 1: Manchin or any of you people to go against me

781
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 1: and tell us that we should remain dependent on the

782
00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:02,719
Speaker 1: oil of Russia and Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, you know,

783
00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 1: dare them and inspire people into that vision and that mission.

784
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 1: That's all on the table. So yes, you know, I

785
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:13,719
Speaker 1: always say not everything is the presence fault. Obviously it's

786
00:41:13,760 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 1: not a magician. And you know, some of these things

787
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:18,279
Speaker 1: are just bad bounces of the ball that really had

788
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:21,960
Speaker 1: nothing to do with him. But how you respond in

789
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:25,960
Speaker 1: the moment, that's one hundred percent on you. And I

790
00:41:26,120 --> 00:41:30,879
Speaker 1: just see no ability to marshal the American people, even

791
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 1: at a time when you do have a lot of

792
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:38,719
Speaker 1: bipartisan sentiment around where we stand visa the Ukraine. I

793
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 1: don't see any any of that ability to marshal the

794
00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 1: American people around some sort of cohesive pride giving national

795
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:49,160
Speaker 1: project whatsoever. Yeah, I mean we talked to so much

796
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:51,080
Speaker 1: of this and during our State of the Union live stream,

797
00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 1: and that was the theme, which is where is the theme?

798
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:59,280
Speaker 1: Where is the message? Where is the red ties all together?

799
00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:01,400
Speaker 1: I mean, okay, hey, look let's put it all on

800
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 1: the table right now. Let's build a ton of nuclear

801
00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:07,760
Speaker 1: power plants, technology neutral tax credits on all of this stuff.

802
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 1: You know, one part of the Build Back Better agenda

803
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 1: was those EV tax credits, those electric vehicle tax credits.

804
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 1: Now's a great time in order to pass that. I

805
00:42:17,000 --> 00:42:18,960
Speaker 1: mean make it, and frankly, I think it should be

806
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:21,080
Speaker 1: also company neutral. I should make it so it's like

807
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 1: a ten thousand dollars flat subsidy to anybody. Yeah, I

808
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:27,800
Speaker 1: think we may make should I do believe it should be.

809
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 1: And you know, all it is to say is strip

810
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 1: out those types of parts and just make it so

811
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 1: that people can buy an EV at least cheaper than

812
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 1: it currently is. Also, I don't know if anybody is

813
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 1: seen the spot price of nickel is up higher than

814
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:45,359
Speaker 1: it has been in a long time. From an international

815
00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:48,400
Speaker 1: security perspective, we need to go and secure some nickel

816
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 1: deposits and other things elsewhere because we need those to

817
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:54,840
Speaker 1: build EV batteries. Same thing whenever it comes to gas,

818
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:57,719
Speaker 1: and then obviously whenever it comes to nuclear energy. This

819
00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 1: could come. This could be a uniting for the country,

820
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:02,920
Speaker 1: which is look, everybody, and this good piss a lot

821
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 1: of people off left and right. We're like, we cannot

822
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:08,520
Speaker 1: continue to depend on fossil fuels forever. In the meantime,

823
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 1: we are going to ramp up production of as much

824
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:13,320
Speaker 1: as we possibly can to lower the price at the

825
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:16,080
Speaker 1: pump for every single American. You can know that that

826
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 1: is on me. In the long run, in two to

827
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:20,839
Speaker 1: five years, I will make it so this will never

828
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 1: happen to us again. We will have sustainable, clean nuclear

829
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:28,640
Speaker 1: energy all across this country, technology neutral tax credits, you know,

830
00:43:28,719 --> 00:43:31,279
Speaker 1: throw money to the universities, not in the way that

831
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:33,400
Speaker 1: we currently are, but in a way that actually works.

832
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 1: And then pass an EV tax credit for the entire country,

833
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:40,399
Speaker 1: ramping up production by four gm Tesla and otherwise. And hey,

834
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 1: look we have the Defense Production Act and many other places.

835
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 1: If Tesla and Ford and all these other people are

836
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:49,360
Speaker 1: have problems with the EV supply chain, let's get to work.

837
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 1: Let's all get to work. There are different ways that

838
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:54,320
Speaker 1: we can lower the cost of hybrids, plug in hybrids,

839
00:43:54,560 --> 00:43:57,319
Speaker 1: the installation costs that you can have it so that

840
00:43:57,360 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 1: these tax credits have which we already have for solar

841
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 1: power in people's houses. I mean, you know, look, I'm

842
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 1: just a guy on YouTube, but this isn't that hard.

843
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:08,239
Speaker 1: I mean, I agree with everything that except the drill Baby,

844
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:10,840
Speaker 1: drill park. I think it's a fake solution. I think politically,

845
00:44:10,840 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 1: would it be poppy, Yeah, I think it would probably

846
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,400
Speaker 1: be popular, but it's a fake solution. It doesn't actually

847
00:44:15,480 --> 00:44:18,280
Speaker 1: lower prices in the short term. It continues our dependence

848
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:21,040
Speaker 1: on fossil fuel. It kicks off into the future the

849
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 1: ability to actually get off of fossil fuel and dependence.

850
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:28,399
Speaker 1: But we'll continue to have that. That's fine. Continue to talk,

851
00:44:28,640 --> 00:44:30,759
Speaker 1: all right, let's talk about the media. All right, this

852
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:33,400
Speaker 1: is a fun one. Let's go ahead and put this

853
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 1: on the screen when MSNBC airs the myth once again

854
00:44:38,000 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 1: of the quote ghost of Kiev from a Ukrainian member

855
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:44,799
Speaker 1: of parliament. Let's take a listen. This deal with the

856
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 1: provision of fight to just to the Ukrainian pilots, we

857
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 1: will work out. I have confidence in our pilots. We

858
00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 1: have one pilot who is now called the Ghost of

859
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:55,800
Speaker 1: ki who has shut down more than two Russian planes.

860
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 1: They are skillful, they will be able to do this.

861
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 1: What we're asking for, Just please provide us with this

862
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:05,879
Speaker 1: so that we can save our children and then fight.

863
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:09,000
Speaker 1: The rest is better. This is a tricky one because

864
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:11,239
Speaker 1: it's one of those things where we are seeing the

865
00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 1: proliferation of myths on social media, like this so called

866
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 1: Ghost of Kiev, who by all accounts does not exist.

867
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:20,719
Speaker 1: Or the Snake Island story, which frankly I fell for.

868
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 1: I posted about it on my Instagram and I had

869
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:24,640
Speaker 1: to look like an idiot and deleted it because it

870
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:28,080
Speaker 1: turned out that many of these Ukrainian culcuers did ultimately

871
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 1: surrender and they were all alive, and this was ultimately

872
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:33,480
Speaker 1: confirmed by the Kiev Independent. And this is a difficult

873
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:35,440
Speaker 1: one because it's one of those where you don't want

874
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:37,960
Speaker 1: to appear like a contrarian being like, look at all

875
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 1: this fake news that people are falling for. But at

876
00:45:40,640 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 1: the same time, fake news in any form is pernicious,

877
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 1: especially if it is working and you being used in

878
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:50,439
Speaker 1: order to further a hawkishness in the public. So let's

879
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:52,960
Speaker 1: put this on the screen. Which you found a very

880
00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:57,080
Speaker 1: tortured explanation from the New York Times where they're basically

881
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:59,320
Speaker 1: like the fit and the fact that the myth making

882
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:02,799
Speaker 1: blend the Ukraine's information war, like the Ghost of Kiev

883
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 1: and the Snake Island. They are of questionable veracity, but

884
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 1: they are propaganda or moral boosters and perhaps both, And

885
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 1: so basically they were saying, look, fake information, Yeah, it exists,

886
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 1: but if it's Ukrainian, it's okay. And if it's Russian.

887
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:19,759
Speaker 1: It's bad, and I just don't think that that is

888
00:46:19,760 --> 00:46:22,200
Speaker 1: a mature way for us to be able to handle this.

889
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 1: And that's why I thought it was important that we

890
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,320
Speaker 1: cover it in this way, which is it's a motive.

891
00:46:26,400 --> 00:46:28,440
Speaker 1: Look like, I literally just told you I fell for

892
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 1: the Snake Island story. If people want to believe the

893
00:46:31,480 --> 00:46:33,440
Speaker 1: Ghost of Kiev's story. But then you look at the

894
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 1: videos and you know, these videos are either we're old

895
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:38,880
Speaker 1: or you know. Many of the claims and things that

896
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:41,680
Speaker 1: they're making is that they're trying to perpetuate an image

897
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:44,040
Speaker 1: that they are fighting at a level which does not

898
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:46,239
Speaker 1: actually exist. And I just think we all need to

899
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 1: be realistic about this. While you can still acknowledge the

900
00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:53,080
Speaker 1: unbelievable bravery of President Zelenski, the unbelievable bravery of the

901
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:56,200
Speaker 1: civilians who are you know, joined up in the Ukrainian

902
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 1: Defense Force, I just think it comes down to the

903
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:01,960
Speaker 1: fact that or is not pretty. It's not black and white.

904
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 1: It is a deeply it's a deep tragedy whenever it occurs.

905
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:07,919
Speaker 1: I mean, it's incredibly complicated, which a lot of people

906
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:10,320
Speaker 1: just don't want to hear. Yeah, I mean, we shouldn't

907
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:13,680
Speaker 1: be Just because you believe the Ukrainian cause to be

908
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 1: more righteous than the Russian cause doesn't mean that you

909
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:20,040
Speaker 1: should be like Ergo. Their lives and their propaganda is okay.

910
00:47:21,080 --> 00:47:24,040
Speaker 1: And that's what you know. I mean MSNBC by sort

911
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:26,200
Speaker 1: of platforming that, even though this thing has been long

912
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 1: debunt and then the New York Times, this article is

913
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:33,279
Speaker 1: really quite something. First of all, they go through the

914
00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:36,040
Speaker 1: debunking of the Snake Island thing and the debunking of

915
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:38,360
Speaker 1: the ghost of Kiev story, which for those of you

916
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:42,680
Speaker 1: who haven't followed this closely, the first video that went viral,

917
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:45,920
Speaker 1: which was shared by the official Ukraine Twitter account, was

918
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 1: a computer rendering from a combat flight simulator, originally uploaded

919
00:47:50,520 --> 00:47:53,799
Speaker 1: by a YouTube user with just three thousand subscribers. Then

920
00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:57,759
Speaker 1: there was a photo that supposedly confirmed the fighter's existence.

921
00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:00,720
Speaker 1: It was shared by former Ukrainian press Isn't It Petro

922
00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:04,800
Speaker 1: Poroshenko And that was from a twenty nineteen Twitter post

923
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:08,839
Speaker 1: by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. And what was interesting is

924
00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:13,359
Speaker 1: when Snopes, the fact checking website, published an article that

925
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:16,320
Speaker 1: debunked the whole ghost of Keep things, citing this evidence.

926
00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:19,279
Speaker 1: There were a bunch of replies that were like, why

927
00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:22,000
Speaker 1: can't we just this One person literally said, why can't

928
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 1: we just let people believe some things? If the Russians

929
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:27,840
Speaker 1: believe it, it brings fear. If the Ukrainians believe it,

930
00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:30,920
Speaker 1: it gives them hope. Then they go on in this

931
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:36,360
Speaker 1: piece to quote experts who are justifying war propaganda and lies.

932
00:48:36,800 --> 00:48:39,160
Speaker 1: They talked to this guy, Peter Singer, a strategist and

933
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 1: senior fellow at New America, which is apparently a think

934
00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:44,680
Speaker 1: tank in Washington. Do you know what their deal is?

935
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:46,719
Speaker 1: They like Now America. They're more of a centrist. People

936
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:48,239
Speaker 1: actually like Peter Singer. I read one of his books

937
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:50,880
Speaker 1: called US Wars. So he says if Ukraine had no

938
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:53,360
Speaker 1: messages of the righteousness of its cause, the popularity of

939
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:55,360
Speaker 1: its cause, the valor of its heroes, the suffering of

940
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:58,439
Speaker 1: its populace, then it would lose not just the information war,

941
00:48:58,680 --> 00:49:01,359
Speaker 1: but it would lose the overall war. He also says

942
00:49:01,400 --> 00:49:03,399
Speaker 1: a key to information warfare in the age of social

943
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:05,840
Speaker 1: media is to recognize that the audience is both target

944
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:10,120
Speaker 1: of and participant in it. Hopefully sharing out those messages

945
00:49:10,200 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 1: makes them combatants of a sort as well. So a

946
00:49:13,600 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 1: full piece basically saying, if it's Ukrainian lies and propaganda,

947
00:49:18,840 --> 00:49:21,160
Speaker 1: it's kind of okay, Like we're going to tell you

948
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:23,520
Speaker 1: that they're not really accurate, but we're also going to

949
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:26,080
Speaker 1: tell you that it serves a noble purpose, so it's

950
00:49:26,080 --> 00:49:28,319
Speaker 1: all good. And these are the same people who how

951
00:49:28,360 --> 00:49:33,520
Speaker 1: many articles about misinformation and disinformation and calls for deplatforming

952
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:36,799
Speaker 1: and the unfettered conversations that are happening on parlor in

953
00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:40,280
Speaker 1: all these places. But then when it comes to lies

954
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:43,359
Speaker 1: and misinformation in support of something that they believe in

955
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 1: and that you know, is a cause that they back,

956
00:49:46,000 --> 00:49:49,160
Speaker 1: then suddenly a little bit of misinformation isn't going to

957
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:52,800
Speaker 1: hurt anyone. The reason again this matters is that when

958
00:49:52,840 --> 00:49:55,839
Speaker 1: you get something wrong, no matter who it helps or not,

959
00:49:56,239 --> 00:49:59,279
Speaker 1: you just have to admit it. It may suck and

960
00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 1: it may be No Listen, I don't enjoy doing it

961
00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:05,799
Speaker 1: as often as I have to. That being said, it's

962
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:08,920
Speaker 1: better in the long run for your credibility and be

963
00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:13,200
Speaker 1: so that people can live in reality. Reality is actually

964
00:50:13,320 --> 00:50:17,840
Speaker 1: very important, and it's a disservice to Americans, to my

965
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:20,400
Speaker 1: neighbors who have put Ukrainian flags up for them to

966
00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:24,040
Speaker 1: think that something is happening there which is simply not

967
00:50:24,440 --> 00:50:27,000
Speaker 1: that there is, which may then lead to them to

968
00:50:28,239 --> 00:50:33,120
Speaker 1: encourage and buy into the most hawkish rhetoric, and especially

969
00:50:33,360 --> 00:50:36,720
Speaker 1: whenever it comes to the media, the media has a responsibility,

970
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:39,319
Speaker 1: whether you like it or not, in order to tell

971
00:50:39,320 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 1: you something, whether it's true or it's not true, in

972
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:45,960
Speaker 1: order to fact check something, regardless of the circumstance. And

973
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:48,920
Speaker 1: the problem is that it leads then to what they

974
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:51,799
Speaker 1: call noble lies. Well, it was a noble lie to

975
00:50:51,880 --> 00:50:54,920
Speaker 1: buy into the most maximal things on Russia Gate because

976
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:58,160
Speaker 1: Trump was a bad guy. It's no defense of Trump

977
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:01,319
Speaker 1: up here, but it doesn't mean that it's true or

978
00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 1: it was a noble lie. What Fauchi said don't work.

979
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 1: We need to understand reality with all its words, because

980
00:51:09,600 --> 00:51:13,840
Speaker 1: then we can respond to reality. Especially when the stakes

981
00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:18,960
Speaker 1: are as high as war peace, World War three, nuclear annihilation.

982
00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:22,920
Speaker 1: We need to have as clear a picture as possible

983
00:51:23,400 --> 00:51:25,840
Speaker 1: of what is actually going on in the ground, what

984
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:29,880
Speaker 1: are actually the chances of the Ukrainian military repelling the

985
00:51:29,960 --> 00:51:32,839
Speaker 1: Russian military, like we need to be as clear eyed

986
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:36,399
Speaker 1: as at that as possible. And so when you have

987
00:51:37,120 --> 00:51:40,440
Speaker 1: storied outlets like the New York Times basically saying, like, oh,

988
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:43,960
Speaker 1: propaganda on the Ukrainian side, it's really okay because it's

989
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:47,560
Speaker 1: good for them. That is not a good state of affairs.

990
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:49,720
Speaker 1: And I think we've been upfront with you guys about

991
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:53,240
Speaker 1: how hard it is to really decipher what is actually

992
00:51:53,280 --> 00:51:56,520
Speaker 1: happening on the ground. And this is part of why,

993
00:51:57,000 --> 00:52:02,080
Speaker 1: because you can't trust a single US outlet to actually

994
00:52:02,160 --> 00:52:05,799
Speaker 1: be skeptical about the claims of the Ukrainians. I mean,

995
00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:09,319
Speaker 1: so everything that they're printing, we're having a discount, We're

996
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 1: having a look, all right, who's the source. It's Ukrainians,

997
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:15,920
Speaker 1: it's our defense officials, Like all of it has to

998
00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:20,239
Speaker 1: be discounted and caveated, and of course the Russian propaganda

999
00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:24,080
Speaker 1: has to be even more discounted and caveated. But it

1000
00:52:24,120 --> 00:52:27,759
Speaker 1: makes it so it's impossible to actually figure out specifically

1001
00:52:27,800 --> 00:52:30,600
Speaker 1: what is going on, and that means that it's impossible

1002
00:52:30,640 --> 00:52:33,440
Speaker 1: for the public to make informed choices about how we

1003
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:35,720
Speaker 1: should actually respond. That's why this stuff matters, and whenever

1004
00:52:35,760 --> 00:52:38,239
Speaker 1: it gets reflected in our popular media, this is kind

1005
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:40,120
Speaker 1: of how it shakes out, which is that we have

1006
00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:42,080
Speaker 1: here a clip we played a little bit of the

1007
00:52:42,120 --> 00:52:44,440
Speaker 1: answer yesterday, it was important you see the questioning. Look

1008
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:48,440
Speaker 1: at the way that Chuck Todd seemingly advocates and demands

1009
00:52:48,480 --> 00:52:51,880
Speaker 1: a no fly zone from Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln.

1010
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:54,640
Speaker 1: This type of browbeeding sets the tone and the framework

1011
00:52:54,880 --> 00:52:57,239
Speaker 1: of the conversation and then the way in which all

1012
00:52:57,280 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 1: of us are thinking and talking about it. Let's take

1013
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 1: a listen. Why rule out the no fly zone? Why

1014
00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:09,200
Speaker 1: not make putin think it's possible. First again, my admiration

1015
00:53:09,360 --> 00:53:12,520
Speaker 1: for President Zelensky has no bounds, and if I were

1016
00:53:12,520 --> 00:53:16,440
Speaker 1: in his shoes, I'd be asking and looking for everything

1017
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:20,279
Speaker 1: possible from everyone in every place around the world. And

1018
00:53:20,280 --> 00:53:24,600
Speaker 1: as I said, what we've already done is extraordinary. And

1019
00:53:24,880 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 1: just to remind people, over the past year alone from

1020
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:31,680
Speaker 1: the United States alone, more than a billion dollars in

1021
00:53:31,880 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 1: security assistance, lethal defensive weapons that are being put to

1022
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:40,200
Speaker 1: very effective service by Ukrainians now in defense of their country,

1023
00:53:40,760 --> 00:53:43,840
Speaker 1: and other measures that we're looking at going forward. Just

1024
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:47,719
Speaker 1: in the last week alone, Chuck, we have delivered more

1025
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:51,959
Speaker 1: than two hundred million dollars worth of security assistance into

1026
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:54,040
Speaker 1: the hands of Ukrainians. So all of that is ongoing,

1027
00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:56,640
Speaker 1: all of that's continuing. Present's been very clear about one

1028
00:53:56,680 --> 00:53:59,799
Speaker 1: thing all along as well, which is we're not going

1029
00:53:59,880 --> 00:54:04,840
Speaker 1: to the United States in direct conflict with Russia. Not

1030
00:54:05,000 --> 00:54:08,440
Speaker 1: have you know, American planes flying against Russian planes or

1031
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:12,560
Speaker 1: our soldiers on the ground in Ukraine. Because for everything

1032
00:54:12,560 --> 00:54:15,640
Speaker 1: we're doing for Ukraine, the President also has a responsibility

1033
00:54:16,080 --> 00:54:18,680
Speaker 1: to not get us into a direct conflict, a direct

1034
00:54:18,719 --> 00:54:21,520
Speaker 1: war with Russia, a nuclear power, and risk a war

1035
00:54:21,719 --> 00:54:26,080
Speaker 1: that expands even beyond Ukraine to Europe. That's clearly not

1036
00:54:26,440 --> 00:54:28,640
Speaker 1: our interest. What we're trying to do is end this

1037
00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:32,000
Speaker 1: war in Ukraine, not start a larger one. Let me

1038
00:54:32,040 --> 00:54:35,040
Speaker 1: ask you this, and by the way, keep in mind

1039
00:54:35,080 --> 00:54:36,920
Speaker 1: what again, keep in mind what a no flies on

1040
00:54:38,480 --> 00:54:41,400
Speaker 1: Just so people understand too what a no flies one means.

1041
00:54:41,440 --> 00:54:45,480
Speaker 1: It means that if you declare a space no fly

1042
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:47,480
Speaker 1: and a Russian plane flies through, it means we have

1043
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:50,960
Speaker 1: to shoot it down. There you go. See he's actually

1044
00:54:50,960 --> 00:54:53,319
Speaker 1: explaining it properly. But look at the pressure give the

1045
00:54:53,400 --> 00:54:57,320
Speaker 1: Ukrainian something. It's like that level of pressure on public officials.

1046
00:54:57,360 --> 00:55:00,960
Speaker 1: You cannot discount this. Luckily Biden stood it's all on Afghanistan,

1047
00:55:01,040 --> 00:55:02,920
Speaker 1: so it's not like he did cave to it in

1048
00:55:02,960 --> 00:55:05,520
Speaker 1: this one area, but for all of the people around him.

1049
00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:07,880
Speaker 1: You know, I think I said this somewhere, I forget

1050
00:55:07,920 --> 00:55:11,000
Speaker 1: exactly where. But we're only one heart beat away from

1051
00:55:11,080 --> 00:55:13,640
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris being the president. And if you do not

1052
00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:16,200
Speaker 1: think that she's not going to be influenced by stuff

1053
00:55:16,239 --> 00:55:17,479
Speaker 1: like this, we're going to be in a full blown

1054
00:55:17,520 --> 00:55:20,160
Speaker 1: hot war. I look, maybe I sound crazy. I don't

1055
00:55:20,200 --> 00:55:23,120
Speaker 1: think she has any mental fortitude whenever it comes to

1056
00:55:23,200 --> 00:55:25,719
Speaker 1: or any real worldview forign policy worldview the way that

1057
00:55:25,719 --> 00:55:28,719
Speaker 1: Biden does. She would be dramatically influenced by people like this.

1058
00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:31,640
Speaker 1: And Biden is a very very old man. And you

1059
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:33,319
Speaker 1: know that if you want to ask what really keeps

1060
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:35,960
Speaker 1: me up, it's that. Yeah. I mean, I have to say,

1061
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:38,600
Speaker 1: of all the presidents in my lifetime, Brenn, it's a

1062
00:55:38,640 --> 00:55:41,759
Speaker 1: low bar. But at least Biden has shown an ability

1063
00:55:41,920 --> 00:55:45,239
Speaker 1: to stand up to this kind of a pressure. And

1064
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:49,279
Speaker 1: you know, take what was a massive approval rating hit

1065
00:55:49,480 --> 00:55:52,880
Speaker 1: right that he has never recovered from since the media

1066
00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:55,520
Speaker 1: just completely piled on. You know, they cared for like

1067
00:55:55,560 --> 00:55:58,040
Speaker 1: three weeks what was happening in Afghanistan, and then they

1068
00:55:58,360 --> 00:56:02,279
Speaker 1: disappeared the most minute no longer serve their interests. But

1069
00:56:03,760 --> 00:56:10,680
Speaker 1: when you create these totally one dimensional hero narratives and

1070
00:56:10,840 --> 00:56:12,920
Speaker 1: you create this drumm, we have to do something, we

1071
00:56:13,000 --> 00:56:15,640
Speaker 1: have to do something, we have to do something, then

1072
00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:18,319
Speaker 1: it should be no surprise that you have, you know,

1073
00:56:18,400 --> 00:56:22,560
Speaker 1: three quarters to eighty percent of the American public like yes,

1074
00:56:22,680 --> 00:56:27,080
Speaker 1: no fly zone, especially when no one is really effectively

1075
00:56:27,200 --> 00:56:31,200
Speaker 1: educating them about what that means and the consequences that

1076
00:56:31,200 --> 00:56:34,560
Speaker 1: would ultimately result. Yeah, I think that's well said. Okay, Well,

1077
00:56:34,640 --> 00:56:37,400
Speaker 1: speaking of the media, I've got a fun exclusive story

1078
00:56:37,480 --> 00:56:39,520
Speaker 1: for all of you. So, as you guys know, I

1079
00:56:39,640 --> 00:56:42,040
Speaker 1: used to be in the White House Press Corps before

1080
00:56:42,040 --> 00:56:44,799
Speaker 1: I started the show with Crystal, And there's a lot

1081
00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:50,240
Speaker 1: of backbench internal politics that determines where you seat inside

1082
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:52,960
Speaker 1: the briefing room. Who gets the assigned seat. The front

1083
00:56:52,960 --> 00:56:56,279
Speaker 1: two rows are the establishment media outlets like the New

1084
00:56:56,360 --> 00:56:59,640
Speaker 1: York Times and the Washington Post, CNN, Fox, and MSNBC.

1085
00:57:00,040 --> 00:57:02,800
Speaker 1: They all have prime seating up there in the front. Naturally,

1086
00:57:02,840 --> 00:57:05,360
Speaker 1: they then get called on first. They get the first questions,

1087
00:57:05,400 --> 00:57:08,279
Speaker 1: the follow up questions, and the most important ones. Now,

1088
00:57:08,400 --> 00:57:11,680
Speaker 1: whenever I was in the White House, the Trump administration

1089
00:57:11,840 --> 00:57:15,200
Speaker 1: did not abide by the long standing quote unquote tradition

1090
00:57:15,520 --> 00:57:19,800
Speaker 1: that the Associated press gets the first question and he

1091
00:57:19,880 --> 00:57:22,960
Speaker 1: gets to decide or she whoever that person is to

1092
00:57:23,120 --> 00:57:26,560
Speaker 1: when the briefing ends, as in they can say thank you, Jen,

1093
00:57:26,840 --> 00:57:29,120
Speaker 1: that's enough. As if it's a deference to that reporter,

1094
00:57:29,480 --> 00:57:33,480
Speaker 1: he can determine how long this briefing goes on. Obviously,

1095
00:57:34,480 --> 00:57:37,800
Speaker 1: some people like me who were former uh you know,

1096
00:57:37,920 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 1: non legacy media outlets can understand why if it's up

1097
00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:44,920
Speaker 1: to them when the briefing ends, that that could screw

1098
00:57:45,000 --> 00:57:47,240
Speaker 1: you over. And let's just give you a taste here.

1099
00:57:47,240 --> 00:57:49,720
Speaker 1: This is generally how it looks whenever the White House

1100
00:57:49,760 --> 00:57:51,760
Speaker 1: briefing ends. Let's take a listen, just so you guys

1101
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:55,400
Speaker 1: can see. Okay, thank you, everybody will do this again tomorrow.

1102
00:57:58,360 --> 00:58:01,600
Speaker 1: Thank you. Venezuela telling there have been a range of reports.

1103
00:58:01,600 --> 00:58:04,160
Speaker 1: I'm sure we can get you more detailed. Thank you everybody.

1104
00:58:04,280 --> 00:58:09,040
Speaker 1: Thanks everyone, have a great day. Thank you. So do

1105
00:58:09,120 --> 00:58:11,200
Speaker 1: you notice all of those shouts in the back Now

1106
00:58:11,240 --> 00:58:13,360
Speaker 1: those shouts are from the people who weren't able to

1107
00:58:13,400 --> 00:58:15,680
Speaker 1: get a question. Now, once again, if it's up to

1108
00:58:15,680 --> 00:58:16,920
Speaker 1: the White House and if they won the end, the

1109
00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:19,040
Speaker 1: briefing and they don't call on you. Fine, that's on you.

1110
00:58:19,200 --> 00:58:22,520
Speaker 1: It happens to me all the time. But why is

1111
00:58:22,600 --> 00:58:26,560
Speaker 1: the Associated Press determining whenever this ends? And put this

1112
00:58:26,640 --> 00:58:28,960
Speaker 1: up there in terms of the seating chart, they just

1113
00:58:29,240 --> 00:58:31,560
Speaker 1: revealed it, which is that it continues to be the

1114
00:58:31,600 --> 00:58:34,720
Speaker 1: case that all of the major legacy media outlets in

1115
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:37,880
Speaker 1: the front two rows continue to keep their seats, which

1116
00:58:37,920 --> 00:58:41,280
Speaker 1: is up to the White House Correspondence Association. Now, this

1117
00:58:41,360 --> 00:58:44,200
Speaker 1: is the point of contention that led to the conflicts

1118
00:58:44,200 --> 00:58:46,400
Speaker 1: which we're about to show you from yesterday. This is

1119
00:58:46,440 --> 00:58:49,800
Speaker 1: audio I've exclusively obtained and also talked to people who

1120
00:58:49,800 --> 00:58:52,040
Speaker 1: were in the room at the time, which is at

1121
00:58:52,080 --> 00:58:54,280
Speaker 1: the end of the briefing, Stephen Nelson of the New

1122
00:58:54,360 --> 00:58:57,600
Speaker 1: York Post called out the Associated Press and say, hey,

1123
00:58:58,120 --> 00:59:01,120
Speaker 1: why did you end the briefing? I still had a

1124
00:59:01,200 --> 00:59:03,919
Speaker 1: question to ask, and so did a lot of other

1125
00:59:03,920 --> 00:59:06,360
Speaker 1: people there. And then you're going to hear a woman's voice.

1126
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:08,600
Speaker 1: Her name is Lynn Sweet. She is the White House

1127
00:59:08,640 --> 00:59:11,800
Speaker 1: correspondent for the Chicago Sun Times. Now, Lynn makes a

1128
00:59:11,880 --> 00:59:15,600
Speaker 1: very excellent point. Lynn castigates the front row and the

1129
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:18,800
Speaker 1: person she's speaking to is Steve Portnoy, he's the head

1130
00:59:19,040 --> 00:59:21,520
Speaker 1: of the White House Correspondence Association, also one of these

1131
00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:24,960
Speaker 1: front two row people, and she says, look, why don't

1132
00:59:24,960 --> 00:59:27,960
Speaker 1: we just end the tradition of the AP calling it

1133
00:59:28,560 --> 00:59:31,240
Speaker 1: If the White House wants to call it, then that's fine.

1134
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:34,480
Speaker 1: And just listen to how both Portnoy and the people

1135
00:59:34,520 --> 00:59:39,040
Speaker 1: in the front row protect their guild access and even

1136
00:59:39,080 --> 00:59:41,800
Speaker 1: admit that it was up to the White House to

1137
00:59:41,880 --> 00:59:44,600
Speaker 1: bring back this tradition, which opens up all sorts of

1138
00:59:44,640 --> 00:59:47,320
Speaker 1: allegations as to whether there is a collusion between the

1139
00:59:47,360 --> 00:59:49,600
Speaker 1: AP and the White House as to when the briefing

1140
00:59:49,680 --> 00:59:53,040
Speaker 1: ends on their time, denying the ability of legacy media

1141
00:59:53,040 --> 00:59:55,560
Speaker 1: outlets in order to ask questions. So with all of

1142
00:59:55,560 --> 00:59:58,360
Speaker 1: that pretext, let's now take a listen to the audio

1143
00:59:58,400 --> 01:00:01,600
Speaker 1: we've exclusively obtained, which shows you how bad this fight

1144
01:00:01,680 --> 01:00:04,720
Speaker 1: got inside the room yesterday. Let's take a listen. You know,

1145
01:00:04,800 --> 01:00:12,080
Speaker 1: you don't have to call the briefing over before appoint

1146
01:00:12,120 --> 01:00:14,160
Speaker 1: themselves in charge of calling it. We had, we had

1147
01:00:14,240 --> 01:00:22,920
Speaker 1: questions back here. You don't have to say thank you

1148
01:00:22,920 --> 01:00:26,080
Speaker 1: to call the briefing over. Let's just be let's just

1149
01:00:26,120 --> 01:00:29,040
Speaker 1: be collegial here, and mister pression that I think the

1150
01:00:29,160 --> 01:00:32,080
Speaker 1: solution isn't you don't be to have this time you

1151
01:00:32,520 --> 01:00:34,520
Speaker 1: it's not your job, you don't. No one of us

1152
01:00:34,520 --> 01:00:37,200
Speaker 1: work through the White House. And I understand all the

1153
01:00:37,400 --> 01:00:40,000
Speaker 1: traditions that we have here. Oh my god, I'm sure

1154
01:00:40,480 --> 01:00:44,120
Speaker 1: we can do a historian report on the tradition. Maybe

1155
01:00:44,240 --> 01:00:48,320
Speaker 1: it's time to end your tradition. And Jen and her

1156
01:00:48,400 --> 01:00:51,800
Speaker 1: colleagues are fully capable of saying, I've got to go

1157
01:00:51,880 --> 01:00:55,280
Speaker 1: now and let them let's just end it. No one

1158
01:00:55,320 --> 01:01:00,439
Speaker 1: deserves to have to feel that responsibility. I could think

1159
01:01:00,480 --> 01:01:03,640
Speaker 1: about just letting the thing end when the White House

1160
01:01:03,680 --> 01:01:07,720
Speaker 1: wants at end. I think that when Jen came in

1161
01:01:07,720 --> 01:01:10,320
Speaker 1: as Press Secretary, she made a conscious decision to try

1162
01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:14,200
Speaker 1: to honor the longstanding positions of the room. She obviously

1163
01:01:14,280 --> 01:01:16,720
Speaker 1: must have felt, and I sure does today that it

1164
01:01:16,800 --> 01:01:20,600
Speaker 1: was our either in our interests or something that we

1165
01:01:20,640 --> 01:01:24,640
Speaker 1: would have preferred. Obviously, the people before us have a

1166
01:01:24,680 --> 01:01:27,920
Speaker 1: different view. Could you speak to my suggestion, right? Okay,

1167
01:01:28,200 --> 01:01:32,560
Speaker 1: I have a narrow suggestion, very specific, so that everybody

1168
01:01:32,560 --> 01:01:35,320
Speaker 1: could at least feel that they had a shot. Okay,

1169
01:01:35,320 --> 01:01:37,919
Speaker 1: I'm not even complaining about the first two rows. God

1170
01:01:37,960 --> 01:01:41,200
Speaker 1: bless you, all, I understand the dynamics here. I'm just

1171
01:01:41,240 --> 01:01:45,680
Speaker 1: saying very basic stuff. Can we maybe think about ending

1172
01:01:45,760 --> 01:01:48,920
Speaker 1: your tradition of having one of our own end debriefing

1173
01:01:49,200 --> 01:01:51,200
Speaker 1: and let the White House end the briefing so that

1174
01:01:51,480 --> 01:01:53,640
Speaker 1: you adjusted it for the White House Press Secretary to

1175
01:01:53,640 --> 01:01:59,800
Speaker 1: make I'm not gonnay so wars if whateever, I'll never

1176
01:01:59,880 --> 01:02:02,400
Speaker 1: end and the briefing what would have happened? Well, I

1177
01:02:02,440 --> 01:02:04,640
Speaker 1: would hope that the briefing would continue, but I will

1178
01:02:04,640 --> 01:02:08,320
Speaker 1: say so you're kind of skirting my little narrow question.

1179
01:02:08,440 --> 01:02:13,400
Speaker 1: Can I connect say something? Problem is bathing gets postponed

1180
01:02:13,440 --> 01:02:15,800
Speaker 1: and delayed and delayed and delayed. Right, so we're all

1181
01:02:15,920 --> 01:02:18,560
Speaker 1: primed for something to happen, and then it doesn't happen,

1182
01:02:18,560 --> 01:02:20,960
Speaker 1: and then the time that is there between the next

1183
01:02:21,040 --> 01:02:23,000
Speaker 1: events or something we're going to three thirty now that

1184
01:02:23,120 --> 01:02:26,840
Speaker 1: is important to a lot of us two you know

1185
01:02:26,920 --> 01:02:30,520
Speaker 1: here at the Whitehouse. So the time is being pressured

1186
01:02:30,960 --> 01:02:34,280
Speaker 1: by these continual tolast But maybe we could also mention

1187
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:37,520
Speaker 1: that there are numbers. But could you address this little

1188
01:02:37,560 --> 01:02:40,640
Speaker 1: baby stuff I'm suggested. I will think it over, thank you.

1189
01:02:41,160 --> 01:02:44,400
Speaker 1: I want before we do, I would make a point.

1190
01:02:44,520 --> 01:02:47,240
Speaker 1: I think that jobs is right. We all have jobs

1191
01:02:47,240 --> 01:02:49,720
Speaker 1: to do. It's not right that one reporter should should

1192
01:02:49,760 --> 01:02:53,440
Speaker 1: command the floor and hold it right. I don't want

1193
01:02:53,600 --> 01:02:56,840
Speaker 1: I'm saying we all. I mean, in twenty five minutes,

1194
01:02:56,840 --> 01:02:58,520
Speaker 1: there are millions of people across the cemetery. You'll be

1195
01:02:58,520 --> 01:03:01,080
Speaker 1: listening to see you as radio stations on the air.

1196
01:03:04,560 --> 01:03:09,920
Speaker 1: But answered my narrow little questions, and now I finally

1197
01:03:09,920 --> 01:03:12,880
Speaker 1: have it, you're going to consider it. Let's get you know,

1198
01:03:12,960 --> 01:03:18,200
Speaker 1: let's not do the whole world of things, and specialty

1199
01:03:18,320 --> 01:03:23,360
Speaker 1: media needs an opportunity. So the little preview of how

1200
01:03:23,400 --> 01:03:26,040
Speaker 1: exactly things went in there, and props to Lynn Sweet

1201
01:03:26,160 --> 01:03:28,680
Speaker 1: she really pressed him in exactly the way. And this

1202
01:03:28,720 --> 01:03:31,880
Speaker 1: stuff drives me crazy because, like I said, I had

1203
01:03:31,920 --> 01:03:33,840
Speaker 1: to go through the whole ringer. You know, I was

1204
01:03:33,840 --> 01:03:35,400
Speaker 1: one of those people who had to stand in the aisle.

1205
01:03:35,440 --> 01:03:37,560
Speaker 1: I'll get their hours early just to try and get

1206
01:03:37,560 --> 01:03:39,720
Speaker 1: in the site line of the White House Press secretary.

1207
01:03:39,800 --> 01:03:41,840
Speaker 1: Some days you don't get called on. That's okay, it's

1208
01:03:41,880 --> 01:03:45,360
Speaker 1: up to the White House. But it is outrageous that

1209
01:03:45,400 --> 01:03:49,480
Speaker 1: the Associated Press gets to decide when the briefing is over,

1210
01:03:49,760 --> 01:03:53,240
Speaker 1: who elected you nobody? And the way that the briefing

1211
01:03:53,280 --> 01:03:55,320
Speaker 1: room is all set up. The way that all of

1212
01:03:55,360 --> 01:03:57,880
Speaker 1: the access to the corridors of power is one that

1213
01:03:57,960 --> 01:04:01,360
Speaker 1: rewards the legacy media people because they know they're dying.

1214
01:04:01,680 --> 01:04:04,080
Speaker 1: Cable news is irrelevant. I love how he says, I've

1215
01:04:04,080 --> 01:04:06,160
Speaker 1: got to listen to millions of people on the radio. Look,

1216
01:04:06,200 --> 01:04:07,960
Speaker 1: I actually know Stephen. He was very nice to me

1217
01:04:08,400 --> 01:04:10,680
Speaker 1: whenever I was at the White He said something like,

1218
01:04:10,760 --> 01:04:12,920
Speaker 1: millions of people aren't going to hear me on the radio.

1219
01:04:13,040 --> 01:04:16,400
Speaker 1: I'm sure they're going to cry themselves asleep. I don't

1220
01:04:16,400 --> 01:04:18,760
Speaker 1: want him speak to you. I don't know's a very

1221
01:04:18,840 --> 01:04:22,800
Speaker 1: nice guy. I just think that that mindset reflects you,

1222
01:04:23,480 --> 01:04:27,600
Speaker 1: reflects an old way of thinking which does not reflect

1223
01:04:27,640 --> 01:04:31,360
Speaker 1: a dynamically changing media environment. You know, people are premium

1224
01:04:31,360 --> 01:04:33,280
Speaker 1: subscribers have asked us in the past, why don't you

1225
01:04:33,320 --> 01:04:35,120
Speaker 1: send somebody to the White House press briefing. This is

1226
01:04:35,120 --> 01:04:37,680
Speaker 1: why I supposed to get them called up. I would

1227
01:04:37,680 --> 01:04:39,600
Speaker 1: love to send somebody to the White House, say too.

1228
01:04:39,840 --> 01:04:43,760
Speaker 1: In terms of why this matters, First of all, I

1229
01:04:43,840 --> 01:04:46,360
Speaker 1: like lind sweet. She has like spunky wine mom vibes.

1230
01:04:46,440 --> 01:04:50,560
Speaker 1: Should I enjoy that? That's number one? Number two, we've

1231
01:04:50,600 --> 01:04:53,920
Speaker 1: covered a couple different stories on this show. We're just

1232
01:04:54,200 --> 01:04:58,360
Speaker 1: asking the right question huge actually spark change. And as

1233
01:04:58,440 --> 01:05:00,280
Speaker 1: much as we feel like, oh it's impossible, we'll get

1234
01:05:00,280 --> 01:05:04,240
Speaker 1: anything as impossible to move these people whatever, Sometimes by

1235
01:05:04,280 --> 01:05:08,520
Speaker 1: their answers they reveal something to the American public that

1236
01:05:08,640 --> 01:05:11,360
Speaker 1: actually requires them to change. So I'll give you two

1237
01:05:11,400 --> 01:05:14,560
Speaker 1: good examples. One from the White House press briefing. Remember

1238
01:05:14,560 --> 01:05:17,480
Speaker 1: when Jens Hoki got asked about, hey, why don't we

1239
01:05:17,560 --> 01:05:21,640
Speaker 1: send tests to everybody? Such important and she was like, oh,

1240
01:05:21,680 --> 01:05:24,200
Speaker 1: what you just you just want me to send coronavirus

1241
01:05:24,200 --> 01:05:28,200
Speaker 1: tests out to everyone? And the entire country was like yes,

1242
01:05:28,600 --> 01:05:31,360
Speaker 1: and why do you act like that's some crazy idea?

1243
01:05:31,520 --> 01:05:35,560
Speaker 1: Other countries are already doing it. And then because her

1244
01:05:35,640 --> 01:05:39,920
Speaker 1: sort of sneering contempt at the very question revealed something

1245
01:05:39,920 --> 01:05:44,040
Speaker 1: about the White House's thinking they had to change. Another

1246
01:05:44,120 --> 01:05:48,959
Speaker 1: example Nancy Pelosi the stock trading band. She gets asked

1247
01:05:48,960 --> 01:05:52,600
Speaker 1: a question about, hey, you think it's okay for members

1248
01:05:52,600 --> 01:05:55,200
Speaker 1: of Congress to be trading stocks and profiting off of

1249
01:05:55,240 --> 01:05:58,320
Speaker 1: the decisions that they're making when they're legislating, and she

1250
01:05:58,480 --> 01:06:03,360
Speaker 1: gives this total unacceptable answer about how well it's the

1251
01:06:03,400 --> 01:06:05,920
Speaker 1: free market, and I just think we should all participate

1252
01:06:06,000 --> 01:06:10,240
Speaker 1: on it. Well, that sparks a massive bibartisan backlash among

1253
01:06:10,280 --> 01:06:13,400
Speaker 1: the public, because again she's revealed the way that she

1254
01:06:13,560 --> 01:06:16,400
Speaker 1: is thinking about this thing, and it forces her to

1255
01:06:16,440 --> 01:06:18,840
Speaker 1: move off her position. And now there's a chance there

1256
01:06:18,840 --> 01:06:21,160
Speaker 1: will actually be some kind of a stock trading ban,

1257
01:06:21,480 --> 01:06:24,160
Speaker 1: and there's a movement by partisan movement on both sides

1258
01:06:24,200 --> 01:06:27,000
Speaker 1: of the aisle. So that's all a long way of

1259
01:06:27,040 --> 01:06:31,560
Speaker 1: saying that these things can feel really inconsequential, or really

1260
01:06:31,600 --> 01:06:35,520
Speaker 1: inside baseball ball, or really just about some little palace intrigue.

1261
01:06:36,160 --> 01:06:39,360
Speaker 1: But who gets to ask the questions? How many questions

1262
01:06:39,400 --> 01:06:43,960
Speaker 1: get asked? Those things actually really end up mattering a lot,

1263
01:06:44,240 --> 01:06:49,040
Speaker 1: And we've seen just recently some very clear examples of

1264
01:06:49,120 --> 01:06:51,280
Speaker 1: why that ultimately is so true. You know, it's also

1265
01:06:51,360 --> 01:06:53,400
Speaker 1: for the posterity of history. When I was in the

1266
01:06:53,400 --> 01:06:56,360
Speaker 1: press corps, I realized very quickly that all these people

1267
01:06:56,360 --> 01:06:58,760
Speaker 1: were complete idiots and that they did not understand what

1268
01:06:58,800 --> 01:07:00,920
Speaker 1: was happening. And so right before or the second time

1269
01:07:00,960 --> 01:07:04,080
Speaker 1: that the Trump administration stuck struck the Asad regime, I

1270
01:07:04,120 --> 01:07:06,120
Speaker 1: asked Sarah Sander, because there wasn't a confirmation where a

1271
01:07:06,160 --> 01:07:08,040
Speaker 1: Saren Gas or any of that stuff have been used.

1272
01:07:08,080 --> 01:07:09,920
Speaker 1: And by the way, there still is a lot of

1273
01:07:10,000 --> 01:07:13,680
Speaker 1: questions about what happened exactly. I asked Sarah, I said, hey,

1274
01:07:13,960 --> 01:07:16,800
Speaker 1: are you setting the standard that you don't have a confirmation?

1275
01:07:17,200 --> 01:07:19,640
Speaker 1: And what if this was a use of chlorine gas?

1276
01:07:20,040 --> 01:07:23,440
Speaker 1: Would that not then change the calculus over striking the regime?

1277
01:07:23,600 --> 01:07:26,480
Speaker 1: She had a cookie cutter answer. But I asked that

1278
01:07:26,560 --> 01:07:30,600
Speaker 1: question because I knew that twenty fifty years from now

1279
01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:32,760
Speaker 1: people were still going to be looking back at the

1280
01:07:32,920 --> 01:07:35,480
Speaker 1: history or whatever the Serians Civil War and our use

1281
01:07:35,880 --> 01:07:39,480
Speaker 1: of you know, cruise missiles in order to enforce the

1282
01:07:39,520 --> 01:07:41,880
Speaker 1: Geneva Convention. It's kind of crazy when you think about it,

1283
01:07:42,160 --> 01:07:44,120
Speaker 1: that somebody can go back and they can read the

1284
01:07:44,160 --> 01:07:46,560
Speaker 1: transcript and say, hey, somebody did ask this question and

1285
01:07:46,640 --> 01:07:49,120
Speaker 1: this was the exact responsor the administration wrote that, and

1286
01:07:49,120 --> 01:07:51,440
Speaker 1: that can end up in some textbook. You know, obscure

1287
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:54,440
Speaker 1: that weirdo is like me. Read. The point is is

1288
01:07:54,440 --> 01:07:56,880
Speaker 1: that asking the question is important for the sake of

1289
01:07:56,920 --> 01:08:00,120
Speaker 1: history and also for the sake of changing policy. When

1290
01:08:00,120 --> 01:08:02,240
Speaker 1: you rig the way that people get to ask questions,

1291
01:08:02,400 --> 01:08:05,360
Speaker 1: then you're rigging the entire game, especially when you have

1292
01:08:05,600 --> 01:08:07,960
Speaker 1: in the modern era. I mean Trump was this way

1293
01:08:08,000 --> 01:08:10,200
Speaker 1: and Biden is this way as well, very limited in

1294
01:08:10,240 --> 01:08:13,240
Speaker 1: terms of his press access. Trump was not limited and

1295
01:08:13,320 --> 01:08:16,000
Speaker 1: is Trump in his press access. But he mostly sought

1296
01:08:16,040 --> 01:08:18,599
Speaker 1: out the Sean Hannity's of the world that he knew

1297
01:08:18,600 --> 01:08:21,880
Speaker 1: he was going to get friendly interviews from. So when

1298
01:08:21,920 --> 01:08:24,439
Speaker 1: you have this little tiny window where there might be

1299
01:08:24,560 --> 01:08:30,120
Speaker 1: something adversarial, it becomes even more precious. Very true, Cristl,

1300
01:08:30,160 --> 01:08:32,559
Speaker 1: what are you taking a look at? Well, Houston, we

1301
01:08:32,600 --> 01:08:36,280
Speaker 1: have a problem. The public is overwhelmingly in favor of

1302
01:08:36,360 --> 01:08:39,479
Speaker 1: a no fly zone, and a no fly zone almost

1303
01:08:39,479 --> 01:08:42,040
Speaker 1: certainly means world War three, and world War three very

1304
01:08:42,120 --> 01:08:44,360
Speaker 1: likely means nuclear war, and all of that has me

1305
01:08:44,760 --> 01:08:48,920
Speaker 1: completely terrified. As we mentioned yesterday, a new Reuter's EPSOS

1306
01:08:48,960 --> 01:08:52,480
Speaker 1: poll finds seventy four percent of Americans, including wide majorities

1307
01:08:52,479 --> 01:08:56,280
Speaker 1: of Democrats and Republicans, support instituting a no fly zone.

1308
01:08:56,320 --> 01:08:59,720
Speaker 1: In fact, yesterday, thousands of people in Chicago marched through

1309
01:08:59,720 --> 01:09:13,679
Speaker 1: the streets demanding we quote close the sky. This digging

1310
01:09:13,760 --> 01:09:16,559
Speaker 1: in even deeper. An economist Yuga poll found a twenty

1311
01:09:16,560 --> 01:09:19,599
Speaker 1: five point margin in favor of instituting a no fly zone.

1312
01:09:19,640 --> 01:09:22,719
Speaker 1: There was almost no difference between Democrats and Republicans. Actually,

1313
01:09:22,720 --> 01:09:25,559
Speaker 1: the big divide here was generational. There was a twenty

1314
01:09:25,600 --> 01:09:28,080
Speaker 1: three point gap between the no fly zone support of

1315
01:09:28,120 --> 01:09:32,160
Speaker 1: the oldest generation versus the youngest generation. Now it's important

1316
01:09:32,160 --> 01:09:34,800
Speaker 1: to know, however, that in every generation there were more

1317
01:09:34,880 --> 01:09:36,840
Speaker 1: who said it was a good idea than those who

1318
01:09:36,840 --> 01:09:39,599
Speaker 1: said it was a bad idea. Among our youngest Americans,

1319
01:09:39,640 --> 01:09:43,000
Speaker 1: the largest group was actually not sure. But that is better,

1320
01:09:43,040 --> 01:09:45,679
Speaker 1: I guess, than the majority pro World War III sentiment

1321
01:09:45,720 --> 01:09:48,759
Speaker 1: among the sixty five plus crowd. All of this, though,

1322
01:09:48,960 --> 01:09:52,040
Speaker 1: is a complete disaster. So how exactly did we get here?

1323
01:09:52,400 --> 01:09:54,720
Speaker 1: I don't think it's an accident that hawkishness on any

1324
01:09:54,800 --> 01:09:57,839
Speaker 1: number of measures is strongest among our seniors. This age cohort,

1325
01:09:57,920 --> 01:09:59,960
Speaker 1: for one thing, will not be sent overseas to fight.

1326
01:10:00,280 --> 01:10:03,240
Speaker 1: But they're also the ones who happened to watch cable news.

1327
01:10:03,720 --> 01:10:06,679
Speaker 1: Median age of Fox News viewers is sixty eight. Same

1328
01:10:06,720 --> 01:10:10,640
Speaker 1: at MSNBC. CNN is attracting a comparatively youthful set of

1329
01:10:10,680 --> 01:10:13,439
Speaker 1: sixty four year olds, And when it comes to war coverage,

1330
01:10:13,520 --> 01:10:16,040
Speaker 1: the three networks have more or less converged more than

1331
01:10:16,080 --> 01:10:19,400
Speaker 1: they've differed. As we've covered here politicians are almost exclusively

1332
01:10:19,439 --> 01:10:22,920
Speaker 1: pushed to the right on hawkishness. The drumbeat is consistently

1333
01:10:23,000 --> 01:10:26,040
Speaker 1: to do more so. The first damaging aspect of cable

1334
01:10:26,120 --> 01:10:29,000
Speaker 1: news coverage is just their baked in pro war bias.

1335
01:10:29,240 --> 01:10:32,360
Speaker 1: They melted down when Biden left Afghanistan. They cheered when

1336
01:10:32,400 --> 01:10:35,320
Speaker 1: Trump bombs Syria, to the point where Brian Williams practically

1337
01:10:35,360 --> 01:10:38,080
Speaker 1: had an on air orgasm over at MSNBC over our

1338
01:10:38,120 --> 01:10:43,360
Speaker 1: military might go into greater detail. We see these beautiful

1339
01:10:43,439 --> 01:10:47,240
Speaker 1: pictures at night from the decks of these two US

1340
01:10:47,360 --> 01:10:51,600
Speaker 1: Navy vessels in the Eastern Mediterranean. I am tempted to

1341
01:10:51,680 --> 01:10:55,120
Speaker 1: quote the great Leonard Cohen. I'm guided by the beauty

1342
01:10:55,160 --> 01:11:00,680
Speaker 1: of our weapons, and they are beautiful pictures of fearsome

1343
01:11:00,880 --> 01:11:05,160
Speaker 1: armaments making what is for them a brief flight over

1344
01:11:05,200 --> 01:11:09,879
Speaker 1: to this airfield. The second problem with cable news coverage

1345
01:11:09,920 --> 01:11:14,639
Speaker 1: is their prioritizing of sensational human interest stories over actual information. Now, listen,

1346
01:11:14,840 --> 01:11:17,240
Speaker 1: I have no problem with highlighting the human suffering and

1347
01:11:17,280 --> 01:11:19,439
Speaker 1: pain that is part of this war, as it is

1348
01:11:19,520 --> 01:11:22,040
Speaker 1: of every war. But what we really need to know,

1349
01:11:22,400 --> 01:11:26,519
Speaker 1: in clear friggin language, with absolute precision and certainty, is

1350
01:11:26,600 --> 01:11:30,040
Speaker 1: what exactly a no fly zone is and what it means.

1351
01:11:30,439 --> 01:11:33,080
Speaker 1: We should also know exactly what our sanctions are doing,

1352
01:11:33,120 --> 01:11:35,080
Speaker 1: and how Putin views them as an act of war,

1353
01:11:35,200 --> 01:11:38,240
Speaker 1: and how they are brutal on ordinary people. We should

1354
01:11:38,320 --> 01:11:41,640
Speaker 1: know precisely how banning Russian oil will be considered an

1355
01:11:41,680 --> 01:11:45,520
Speaker 1: even more aggressive and escalatory act. We need to understand

1356
01:11:45,680 --> 01:11:48,880
Speaker 1: precisely what the term co combatant means, how our definition

1357
01:11:49,000 --> 01:11:51,080
Speaker 1: might be different from that of Russia. We need to

1358
01:11:51,160 --> 01:11:53,519
Speaker 1: understand the history of our proxy war with the Soviet

1359
01:11:53,560 --> 01:11:56,479
Speaker 1: Union Afghanistan and how that all turned out before we

1360
01:11:56,520 --> 01:11:59,080
Speaker 1: commit to years of arming and training an insurgency with

1361
01:11:59,160 --> 01:12:03,760
Speaker 1: some decidedly unsavory elements. The public needs to be relentlessly

1362
01:12:03,840 --> 01:12:06,559
Speaker 1: brought up to speed on some really key facts here,

1363
01:12:06,840 --> 01:12:09,240
Speaker 1: because they're going to shape whether we head towards a

1364
01:12:09,360 --> 01:12:12,679
Speaker 1: giant war or away from one. And it is really

1365
01:12:12,720 --> 01:12:15,000
Speaker 1: apparent that the media is completely failing in this job.

1366
01:12:15,040 --> 01:12:17,439
Speaker 1: After all, you've got a clear majority of Americans who

1367
01:12:17,479 --> 01:12:20,680
Speaker 1: say absolutely no to boots on the ground, so it

1368
01:12:20,720 --> 01:12:23,479
Speaker 1: makes no logical sense to say hell no to boots

1369
01:12:23,520 --> 01:12:26,200
Speaker 1: on the ground and hell yes to a no fly zone,

1370
01:12:26,200 --> 01:12:28,519
Speaker 1: which will almost certainly lead to boots on the ground.

1371
01:12:29,200 --> 01:12:32,000
Speaker 1: That disconnect tells you everything you need to know about

1372
01:12:32,000 --> 01:12:34,719
Speaker 1: how the media is faring. I get the absolute essentials

1373
01:12:34,760 --> 01:12:37,240
Speaker 1: into the public debate. And to take it just one

1374
01:12:37,240 --> 01:12:40,120
Speaker 1: step further here, if all you're doing is human interests

1375
01:12:40,280 --> 01:12:43,040
Speaker 1: tugging at the heartstrings without making it crystal clear the

1376
01:12:43,120 --> 01:12:46,840
Speaker 1: risks of taking action to alleviate that suffering, you are

1377
01:12:46,880 --> 01:12:50,439
Speaker 1: actually directly contributing to a hawkish response from the public.

1378
01:12:51,000 --> 01:12:53,680
Speaker 1: So from the baseline pro war posture to the un

1379
01:12:53,760 --> 01:12:56,839
Speaker 1: seriousness of the coverage, we've already got a terrible information

1380
01:12:57,000 --> 01:13:00,320
Speaker 1: environment locked and loaded, just waiting for politicians to pull

1381
01:13:00,439 --> 01:13:02,720
Speaker 1: us into the next war. But there is one other

1382
01:13:02,760 --> 01:13:05,400
Speaker 1: piece we should talk about, and that is the media.

1383
01:13:05,479 --> 01:13:09,360
Speaker 1: Stoked President Zelensky thirst Churchill in a T shirt. That's

1384
01:13:09,400 --> 01:13:12,080
Speaker 1: how Ukrainian President Selensky is being described, and there's no

1385
01:13:12,160 --> 01:13:14,200
Speaker 1: doubt about it. It is hard not to be inspired

1386
01:13:14,200 --> 01:13:16,479
Speaker 1: by the example that this man has set. Zagar and

1387
01:13:16,520 --> 01:13:19,360
Speaker 1: I praised him for his earnest efforts to avoid conflict,

1388
01:13:19,360 --> 01:13:22,080
Speaker 1: his willingness to put difficult concessions like giving up on

1389
01:13:22,160 --> 01:13:25,839
Speaker 1: joining NATO on the table. Once Russia invaded, he decided

1390
01:13:25,880 --> 01:13:28,879
Speaker 1: to stay pullt risking his own death in a bunker

1391
01:13:28,960 --> 01:13:31,600
Speaker 1: in Kiev. By now you know the contours of his

1392
01:13:31,760 --> 01:13:35,000
Speaker 1: literally made for TV story before sending to the presidency

1393
01:13:35,000 --> 01:13:37,880
Speaker 1: as an outsider running against the corruption of the ruling elite.

1394
01:13:37,920 --> 01:13:40,040
Speaker 1: He was a comedian and he was an actor. In

1395
01:13:40,080 --> 01:13:42,519
Speaker 1: his most famous role, he played a history teacher whose

1396
01:13:42,520 --> 01:13:45,640
Speaker 1: anti corruption rant went viral, landing him in the presidency.

1397
01:13:46,000 --> 01:13:48,479
Speaker 1: The show was such a hit that Zelensky launched a

1398
01:13:48,520 --> 01:13:51,559
Speaker 1: political party named after the show, and the rest, as

1399
01:13:51,600 --> 01:13:56,240
Speaker 1: they say, is history. But the moment that Zelensky thirst

1400
01:13:56,360 --> 01:13:58,560
Speaker 1: fully emerged on the scene, it started to get a

1401
01:13:58,560 --> 01:14:02,400
Speaker 1: little nervous. First of all, hero narratives, they're just inherently flattening,

1402
01:14:02,439 --> 01:14:06,599
Speaker 1: turning flawed and complex individuals into one dimensional caricatures, casting

1403
01:14:06,640 --> 01:14:09,720
Speaker 1: aside anything that is inconvenient to the narrative. We all

1404
01:14:09,800 --> 01:14:11,920
Speaker 1: learn the perils of that during the era of the

1405
01:14:12,000 --> 01:14:15,479
Speaker 1: Cuomo sexuals. Well, the Zelensky sexuals are even more dangerous

1406
01:14:15,479 --> 01:14:18,439
Speaker 1: because we're talking about potential nuclear war here. How has

1407
01:14:18,479 --> 01:14:21,559
Speaker 1: the Zelensky hero narrative already shaped our media coverage? Well,

1408
01:14:21,600 --> 01:14:25,360
Speaker 1: for example, the hero narrative can't abide reporting accurately on

1409
01:14:25,439 --> 01:14:29,600
Speaker 1: alleged Ukrainian war crimes. So the Ukrainians have been circulating

1410
01:14:29,640 --> 01:14:32,760
Speaker 1: degrading images and videos of Russian POW's on social media

1411
01:14:32,760 --> 01:14:34,840
Speaker 1: and to the press. That is a clear violation of

1412
01:14:34,880 --> 01:14:37,599
Speaker 1: the Geneva Conventions. The Church will in a T shirt

1413
01:14:37,640 --> 01:14:40,960
Speaker 1: narrative also can abide talking about Zelenski's elaborate offshore holdings,

1414
01:14:41,000 --> 01:14:43,880
Speaker 1: as revealed recently in the Pandora papers, or the allegations

1415
01:14:43,920 --> 01:14:46,840
Speaker 1: that have some evidence that Zelensky and as partners have

1416
01:14:46,920 --> 01:14:49,639
Speaker 1: received millions in payouts from a bank owned by an

1417
01:14:49,640 --> 01:14:53,519
Speaker 1: oligarch with a trail of multi billion dollar fraud. Useful information,

1418
01:14:53,600 --> 01:14:56,160
Speaker 1: I'd say about someone we're throwing potentially decades worth of

1419
01:14:56,200 --> 01:14:59,439
Speaker 1: aid and billions of dollars behind. But the real danger

1420
01:14:59,760 --> 01:15:01,840
Speaker 1: is that but when we create political heroes who can

1421
01:15:01,840 --> 01:15:05,720
Speaker 1: do no wrong, it gives their words undue influence. It

1422
01:15:05,760 --> 01:15:09,360
Speaker 1: makes us more susceptible to believe their propaganda, to believe

1423
01:15:09,439 --> 01:15:13,519
Speaker 1: their narrative, and critically, to back whatever course of action

1424
01:15:13,920 --> 01:15:17,280
Speaker 1: they would recommend. Why, after all, would our white knights

1425
01:15:17,320 --> 01:15:20,160
Speaker 1: steer us off course? And what course of action is

1426
01:15:20,360 --> 01:15:25,000
Speaker 1: Zelensky pushing for consistently and relentlessly. What's escalation he wants?

1427
01:15:25,040 --> 01:15:27,320
Speaker 1: Fighter jets. He wants Russian oil band and he also

1428
01:15:27,439 --> 01:15:30,439
Speaker 1: wants that no fly zone. So you paint a picture

1429
01:15:30,439 --> 01:15:33,200
Speaker 1: of immense suffering, you fail to educate viewers on just

1430
01:15:33,240 --> 01:15:36,120
Speaker 1: what it mean to alleviate that suffering, how it could

1431
01:15:36,160 --> 01:15:40,040
Speaker 1: contribute to vastly more suffering, and then you elevate a

1432
01:15:40,080 --> 01:15:42,680
Speaker 1: hero to serve as an ideal messenger for the pro

1433
01:15:42,880 --> 01:15:46,479
Speaker 1: war cause. It's no surprise then that three quarters of

1434
01:15:46,479 --> 01:15:49,519
Speaker 1: the public are out there clamoring for a no fly zone.

1435
01:15:49,680 --> 01:15:53,760
Speaker 1: The only marvel is that more politicians aren't. How long

1436
01:15:53,840 --> 01:15:56,960
Speaker 1: will that situation hold? And I was looking this morning,

1437
01:15:57,000 --> 01:16:00,360
Speaker 1: Saga Zelenski sort of like upping his rhetoric and castigating

1438
01:16:00,400 --> 01:16:03,080
Speaker 1: Western governments for failing to act. And if you want

1439
01:16:03,080 --> 01:16:06,000
Speaker 1: to hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue, become a premium

1440
01:16:06,000 --> 01:16:11,800
Speaker 1: subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com. All right, soccer, what

1441
01:16:11,840 --> 01:16:14,040
Speaker 1: are you looking at? Well, everyone, it's not a fun

1442
01:16:14,120 --> 01:16:17,280
Speaker 1: monologue to deliver across the country. Financial armour geddon I

1443
01:16:17,360 --> 01:16:19,400
Speaker 1: see is coming, which is going to have a big

1444
01:16:19,439 --> 01:16:22,000
Speaker 1: impact on domestic politics in a way that people in

1445
01:16:22,000 --> 01:16:24,559
Speaker 1: the White House, Washington and the media simply do not

1446
01:16:24,680 --> 01:16:27,679
Speaker 1: yet comprehend. And they all stem from the most important

1447
01:16:27,680 --> 01:16:30,320
Speaker 1: thing in the world, the household balance sheet. If you

1448
01:16:30,400 --> 01:16:32,439
Speaker 1: had asked me before the Russia and Ukraine crisis what

1449
01:16:32,479 --> 01:16:34,920
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty two elections would have focused on, I

1450
01:16:34,920 --> 01:16:38,040
Speaker 1: would have said the economy and COVID. But now my

1451
01:16:38,120 --> 01:16:41,639
Speaker 1: answer has changed. It's gas and then the economy, both

1452
01:16:41,720 --> 01:16:44,960
Speaker 1: obviously intertwined. Gas prices right now in this country are

1453
01:16:45,040 --> 01:16:48,280
Speaker 1: catastrophically high. As of yesterday's morning, In just one week

1454
01:16:48,400 --> 01:16:51,360
Speaker 1: the crisis began, gas prices already up twelve percent, and

1455
01:16:51,400 --> 01:16:53,160
Speaker 1: if you compare it to one year ago, they're up

1456
01:16:53,200 --> 01:16:55,600
Speaker 1: forty six percent. Now, look, a huge part of that

1457
01:16:55,720 --> 01:16:58,360
Speaker 1: is a demand increase as COVID restrictions loosened, But in

1458
01:16:58,360 --> 01:17:00,639
Speaker 1: the near term it is driven right now now by

1459
01:17:00,680 --> 01:17:03,400
Speaker 1: an economic response to Russia. And I say this with

1460
01:17:03,479 --> 01:17:06,400
Speaker 1: no comment on whether we should or should not. I

1461
01:17:06,439 --> 01:17:09,599
Speaker 1: think it's complicated, but I do know that the decision

1462
01:17:09,640 --> 01:17:12,559
Speaker 1: seems more likely. A lot of people in this country

1463
01:17:12,600 --> 01:17:15,959
Speaker 1: are going to pay. Per the US and Energy Information Agency,

1464
01:17:16,120 --> 01:17:18,880
Speaker 1: fifty four percent of the price of gas is comprised

1465
01:17:18,920 --> 01:17:21,080
Speaker 1: of the price of crude oil, which is set by

1466
01:17:21,080 --> 01:17:23,800
Speaker 1: the global market of supply and demand. Now this is

1467
01:17:23,840 --> 01:17:26,040
Speaker 1: critical because it means that no matter how much we

1468
01:17:26,080 --> 01:17:28,479
Speaker 1: produce at home, a big portion of the price is

1469
01:17:28,520 --> 01:17:31,320
Speaker 1: set by the global market. And as I just showed you,

1470
01:17:31,479 --> 01:17:34,240
Speaker 1: the uncertainty in the market has pushed crude as high

1471
01:17:34,240 --> 01:17:36,920
Speaker 1: as one hundred and thirty dollars, with an average price

1472
01:17:36,960 --> 01:17:39,599
Speaker 1: of roughly one hundred and ten barrels of this writing.

1473
01:17:39,840 --> 01:17:42,559
Speaker 1: So obviously the question is, well, what do we do

1474
01:17:42,640 --> 01:17:45,960
Speaker 1: about it? All kinds authority questions arise? Should we drill

1475
01:17:46,040 --> 01:17:48,080
Speaker 1: more at home? What's the cause of this? Do we

1476
01:17:48,120 --> 01:17:51,000
Speaker 1: even have refining capacity? Can we convince the Saudi's in

1477
01:17:51,040 --> 01:17:53,400
Speaker 1: the Venezuelans to pump more oil and to give us

1478
01:17:53,439 --> 01:17:56,200
Speaker 1: some even though they hate our guts? Fundamentally, the answer

1479
01:17:56,240 --> 01:17:58,479
Speaker 1: is one where we need more supply, But it leads

1480
01:17:58,479 --> 01:18:00,679
Speaker 1: to the question of why is there no more supply?

1481
01:18:00,960 --> 01:18:03,080
Speaker 1: And while politics is a big part of the answer,

1482
01:18:03,360 --> 01:18:05,639
Speaker 1: financialization is just as much of a part of it too.

1483
01:18:05,720 --> 01:18:09,120
Speaker 1: I was shocked to discover basically before COVID shale gas

1484
01:18:09,120 --> 01:18:12,960
Speaker 1: industry lost like five hundred billion dollars by expanding too aggressively.

1485
01:18:13,200 --> 01:18:16,519
Speaker 1: Then they got destroyed during COVID times by low gas prices.

1486
01:18:16,800 --> 01:18:20,240
Speaker 1: After losing that much money, now all investors on Wall

1487
01:18:20,280 --> 01:18:23,400
Speaker 1: Street want is cash flow. So in effect, they are

1488
01:18:23,400 --> 01:18:26,960
Speaker 1: actually now reaping the financial rewards of high gas prices

1489
01:18:27,320 --> 01:18:30,080
Speaker 1: because they are making their money back finally on the

1490
01:18:30,080 --> 01:18:33,160
Speaker 1: stuff that they lost already after being burned and drilling

1491
01:18:33,200 --> 01:18:35,840
Speaker 1: in the past. So now they say, screw it. I

1492
01:18:35,840 --> 01:18:38,000
Speaker 1: don't want to invest my money in that anymore. The

1493
01:18:38,120 --> 01:18:40,479
Speaker 1: lesson of this to me is that we cannot let

1494
01:18:40,479 --> 01:18:45,280
Speaker 1: commodity markets and private investors screw with American energy security. Yes,

1495
01:18:45,600 --> 01:18:47,720
Speaker 1: the market has a role to play here in uncertainty,

1496
01:18:47,920 --> 01:18:50,760
Speaker 1: especially times like this with gas and massive tax right

1497
01:18:50,800 --> 01:18:53,160
Speaker 1: now on the balance sheet of working class Americans. And

1498
01:18:53,200 --> 01:18:55,719
Speaker 1: it's not like people can stop driving. Gas is about

1499
01:18:55,720 --> 01:18:58,040
Speaker 1: as inelastic as a product as it gets, and with

1500
01:18:58,160 --> 01:19:02,120
Speaker 1: prices like this high, people have no choice like they

1501
01:19:02,120 --> 01:19:03,920
Speaker 1: did in two thousand and eight, but to just cut

1502
01:19:03,960 --> 01:19:06,360
Speaker 1: costs in all other areas of life. Who knows how

1503
01:19:06,360 --> 01:19:09,240
Speaker 1: many people now are going to get summer vacations, better food,

1504
01:19:09,520 --> 01:19:11,519
Speaker 1: have to stop their kids from attending an extra core

1505
01:19:11,880 --> 01:19:14,880
Speaker 1: curricular activity in the summer, also that they can simply

1506
01:19:15,000 --> 01:19:17,280
Speaker 1: fill up the tank and get to work. It is

1507
01:19:17,360 --> 01:19:21,160
Speaker 1: a nightmare for millions of people. One analysis in twenty

1508
01:19:21,200 --> 01:19:23,920
Speaker 1: twenty one, it showed that the lowest income households they

1509
01:19:24,000 --> 01:19:26,479
Speaker 1: spend as much as one fifth of their entire income

1510
01:19:26,800 --> 01:19:29,320
Speaker 1: just on gas. And that was when gas prices were

1511
01:19:29,400 --> 01:19:32,679
Speaker 1: half of what they are right now. Consider the gas

1512
01:19:32,800 --> 01:19:35,560
Speaker 1: could skyrocket to as high as five point fifty or

1513
01:19:35,720 --> 01:19:38,720
Speaker 1: six dollars six fifty a gallon on a national average.

1514
01:19:38,800 --> 01:19:42,440
Speaker 1: You're looking at a financial bomb dropped on American's household finances.

1515
01:19:42,600 --> 01:19:44,479
Speaker 1: And what I laid out in our show yesterday too

1516
01:19:44,800 --> 01:19:47,800
Speaker 1: was key. Let's look at this. The only thing Americans

1517
01:19:47,840 --> 01:19:50,400
Speaker 1: also literally have to spend money on too is food.

1518
01:19:50,800 --> 01:19:55,120
Speaker 1: Guess what prices are increasing there as well. Wheat futures

1519
01:19:55,200 --> 01:19:58,599
Speaker 1: contracts are up sixty percent when the war began, corn

1520
01:19:58,760 --> 01:20:02,519
Speaker 1: up by fifteen. Russia and Ukraine together account for literally

1521
01:20:02,600 --> 01:20:06,320
Speaker 1: one third of all internationally traded wheat, and given that

1522
01:20:06,400 --> 01:20:09,200
Speaker 1: those commodities, too are set by the global market, what

1523
01:20:09,240 --> 01:20:11,559
Speaker 1: we produce here at home does not matter as much

1524
01:20:11,560 --> 01:20:14,840
Speaker 1: as we might think. Only the price for the consumer does.

1525
01:20:15,160 --> 01:20:18,120
Speaker 1: Food Inflation, which is already at record highs, is going

1526
01:20:18,160 --> 01:20:20,200
Speaker 1: to get a lot worse. The head of Tesco, which

1527
01:20:20,280 --> 01:20:23,439
Speaker 1: is Britain's largest grosser, says quote the worst is yet

1528
01:20:23,439 --> 01:20:26,920
Speaker 1: to come on food price. High food prices obviously are

1529
01:20:26,920 --> 01:20:30,120
Speaker 1: going to have a massively destabilizing impact not only here

1530
01:20:30,200 --> 01:20:33,920
Speaker 1: at home, but across the world. Many developing countries already

1531
01:20:34,000 --> 01:20:37,400
Speaker 1: are dealing with double digit inflation, which of course will

1532
01:20:37,439 --> 01:20:41,559
Speaker 1: further destabilize their own domestic political situations and perhaps lead

1533
01:20:41,600 --> 01:20:43,800
Speaker 1: to more conflict. I say none of this to scare you,

1534
01:20:43,960 --> 01:20:46,680
Speaker 1: simply to prepare you for the dark reality that we

1535
01:20:46,760 --> 01:20:49,680
Speaker 1: now face. Our political leaders, they don't have any good

1536
01:20:49,720 --> 01:20:53,240
Speaker 1: options right now. All of them are fraught with consequences

1537
01:20:53,320 --> 01:20:55,720
Speaker 1: for the long run. Worse is that the prices that

1538
01:20:55,760 --> 01:20:58,760
Speaker 1: many working people will feel in their everyday expenditures are

1539
01:20:58,800 --> 01:21:01,040
Speaker 1: going to go up by a lot more, and it

1540
01:21:01,080 --> 01:21:04,240
Speaker 1: is going to decimate them financially, which we know for

1541
01:21:04,360 --> 01:21:08,519
Speaker 1: certain has major domestic political consequences. The more I see

1542
01:21:08,560 --> 01:21:10,600
Speaker 1: the future this is the way more I think that

1543
01:21:10,880 --> 01:21:13,760
Speaker 1: we may one day yearn for the culture wars of

1544
01:21:13,800 --> 01:21:17,760
Speaker 1: COVID because the wars over oil, food price, what the

1545
01:21:17,760 --> 01:21:19,800
Speaker 1: hell we do about it? In the long run, they

1546
01:21:19,840 --> 01:21:22,080
Speaker 1: are going to be more potent than anything that we

1547
01:21:22,160 --> 01:21:24,919
Speaker 1: might have seen in quite some time. The nineteen seventies

1548
01:21:24,960 --> 01:21:27,160
Speaker 1: are truly back and while it turned out okay in

1549
01:21:27,200 --> 01:21:29,479
Speaker 1: the end, then it was not so fun to live through.

1550
01:21:29,600 --> 01:21:31,479
Speaker 1: And it looks like we're going to inherit the same

1551
01:21:31,520 --> 01:21:34,200
Speaker 1: curse of many of our parents. That's really all it

1552
01:21:34,200 --> 01:21:35,800
Speaker 1: can come down to. I told you a friend of

1553
01:21:35,800 --> 01:21:39,640
Speaker 1: mine was waiting in a gas line in New Jersey.

1554
01:21:39,720 --> 01:21:42,640
Speaker 1: And if you want to hear my reaction to Sager's monologue,

1555
01:21:42,680 --> 01:21:49,080
Speaker 1: become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com. Breaking

1556
01:21:49,120 --> 01:21:51,200
Speaker 1: news this morning that Joe Biden has decided to ban

1557
01:21:51,400 --> 01:21:53,800
Speaker 1: Russian oil imports to the US. Luckily we have a

1558
01:21:53,800 --> 01:21:56,760
Speaker 1: great energy export. His name is Rory Johnston. He is

1559
01:21:56,800 --> 01:22:00,000
Speaker 1: the author of the Commodity Contact Substack, of which will

1560
01:22:00,080 --> 01:22:02,320
Speaker 1: have a link down there in the description. Rory, thank

1561
01:22:02,320 --> 01:22:04,160
Speaker 1: you so much for joining the show. We really appreciate it.

1562
01:22:04,720 --> 01:22:07,080
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for having me. Guys, absolutely so Rory.

1563
01:22:07,160 --> 01:22:10,240
Speaker 1: Originally we wanted to talk just about the entire gas

1564
01:22:10,280 --> 01:22:13,200
Speaker 1: supply chain, crude oil, all of that, but just start

1565
01:22:13,200 --> 01:22:16,240
Speaker 1: off with your immediate reaction to the Russian oil band.

1566
01:22:16,240 --> 01:22:17,720
Speaker 1: I see that you're saying it may not have a

1567
01:22:17,720 --> 01:22:20,360
Speaker 1: major impact here at home, but talk about it if

1568
01:22:20,360 --> 01:22:22,720
Speaker 1: it goes global. What are the impact on this on

1569
01:22:22,760 --> 01:22:26,240
Speaker 1: the energy markets, and what can Americans expect at home. Yeah,

1570
01:22:26,280 --> 01:22:28,639
Speaker 1: so just to put in perspective, so, Russia is the

1571
01:22:28,680 --> 01:22:33,120
Speaker 1: third largest kind of producer of oil in the world.

1572
01:22:33,840 --> 01:22:37,120
Speaker 1: It is, It produces about ten to eleven million barrels

1573
01:22:37,160 --> 01:22:39,680
Speaker 1: a day. It exports about five million barrels a day

1574
01:22:39,680 --> 01:22:42,080
Speaker 1: of crude oil, and just shy of three million barrels

1575
01:22:42,120 --> 01:22:45,000
Speaker 1: a day of kind of refined petroleum products like diesel

1576
01:22:45,080 --> 01:22:48,120
Speaker 1: and gasoline. So what we saw this morning with the

1577
01:22:48,160 --> 01:22:51,400
Speaker 1: Biden announcement was kind of, you know, an outright ban

1578
01:22:51,520 --> 01:22:54,760
Speaker 1: of all petroleum, so that's crude and refined products. The

1579
01:22:54,840 --> 01:22:57,559
Speaker 1: latest data we have shows that, you know, there wasn't

1580
01:22:57,600 --> 01:23:00,640
Speaker 1: a ton of imports coming in already, something something on

1581
01:23:00,680 --> 01:23:02,800
Speaker 1: the order of but four hundred thousand barrels a day,

1582
01:23:03,240 --> 01:23:06,960
Speaker 1: relatively small in the scheme of total US petroleum imports.

1583
01:23:07,160 --> 01:23:10,479
Speaker 1: But it's one more step in the direction of a

1584
01:23:10,680 --> 01:23:13,960
Speaker 1: larger ban on Russian energy, which even a week ago,

1585
01:23:14,439 --> 01:23:16,800
Speaker 1: let alone two weeks ago, was considered you know, a

1586
01:23:16,840 --> 01:23:21,240
Speaker 1: red line, completely sacrisanct, given the fears that Western political

1587
01:23:21,320 --> 01:23:24,519
Speaker 1: leaders had about the you know, the price impacts that

1588
01:23:24,560 --> 01:23:28,840
Speaker 1: we're already seeing. So when they initially proposed those you know,

1589
01:23:28,880 --> 01:23:32,240
Speaker 1: the suite of sanctions to oppose and to kind of

1590
01:23:32,280 --> 01:23:36,160
Speaker 1: punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. There were very

1591
01:23:36,200 --> 01:23:39,960
Speaker 1: explicit carveouts for energy to avoid these price bikes. But

1592
01:23:40,040 --> 01:23:43,240
Speaker 1: what we've seen over the past week or so is

1593
01:23:43,280 --> 01:23:47,160
Speaker 1: that most energy companies have already essentially self sanctioned. They

1594
01:23:47,160 --> 01:23:48,640
Speaker 1: don't want to deal with the hassle, they don't want

1595
01:23:48,640 --> 01:23:52,719
Speaker 1: to deal with the reputational risks. The only actual purchase

1596
01:23:52,720 --> 01:23:55,479
Speaker 1: i've seen reported of a like a major purchase of

1597
01:23:55,520 --> 01:23:58,240
Speaker 1: Russian crude was done by Shell a couple of days ago,

1598
01:23:58,439 --> 01:24:00,360
Speaker 1: and they got raked over the coals for it. It was,

1599
01:24:00,400 --> 01:24:03,719
Speaker 1: you know, there was a polg kind of blowout actually exactly,

1600
01:24:03,720 --> 01:24:06,639
Speaker 1: and I think, you know what's interesting in their initial

1601
01:24:07,120 --> 01:24:10,000
Speaker 1: comment on it, they were like, you know, you know,

1602
01:24:10,120 --> 01:24:12,480
Speaker 1: don't get angry at us. The you know, the administration,

1603
01:24:12,640 --> 01:24:14,920
Speaker 1: the White House and all of the Western governments have

1604
01:24:15,000 --> 01:24:18,040
Speaker 1: very explicitly said we should keep doing this, but it

1605
01:24:18,080 --> 01:24:21,680
Speaker 1: didn't really matter, and the reputational impacts were so dramatic

1606
01:24:21,760 --> 01:24:24,280
Speaker 1: that they've now committed to never behinding Russian crewed again

1607
01:24:24,320 --> 01:24:27,040
Speaker 1: for the duration of this conflict. So, you know, I

1608
01:24:27,040 --> 01:24:29,760
Speaker 1: think there's an open question about how much oil is

1609
01:24:29,800 --> 01:24:33,160
Speaker 1: even currently going to the US, you know, let alone

1610
01:24:33,400 --> 01:24:35,599
Speaker 1: kind of you know, in Europe. So I think it's

1611
01:24:35,680 --> 01:24:38,400
Speaker 1: there's an open question of how much it's going to matter,

1612
01:24:38,479 --> 01:24:41,880
Speaker 1: but it's certainly a political kind of symbolic move to

1613
01:24:42,040 --> 01:24:45,559
Speaker 1: you know, one more kind of crack in that energy

1614
01:24:45,560 --> 01:24:48,759
Speaker 1: export facade. And they follow Canada where I'm based in Toronto,

1615
01:24:49,640 --> 01:24:53,080
Speaker 1: that Canada actually did a similar move earlier last week

1616
01:24:53,520 --> 01:24:55,760
Speaker 1: and similar position. They don't actually import much, but I

1617
01:24:55,760 --> 01:24:58,160
Speaker 1: think it was a symbolic move, and the big question

1618
01:24:58,280 --> 01:25:02,759
Speaker 1: is whether Europe ands of you know, US Asian allies

1619
01:25:02,800 --> 01:25:06,000
Speaker 1: will follow suit. So you're saying that, you know, in

1620
01:25:06,040 --> 01:25:08,800
Speaker 1: some ways the Russian oil band is already in action

1621
01:25:09,520 --> 01:25:12,160
Speaker 1: and is already in some ways priced in. What does

1622
01:25:12,160 --> 01:25:16,080
Speaker 1: it mean though for the Russian domestic economy? I mean,

1623
01:25:16,160 --> 01:25:19,200
Speaker 1: you know, these are you know, Russia's oil exports, Internet

1624
01:25:19,400 --> 01:25:22,839
Speaker 1: energy exports broadly are entirely the lifeline of the Russian economy,

1625
01:25:23,520 --> 01:25:25,640
Speaker 1: not to mention that everything else at this stage is

1626
01:25:25,920 --> 01:25:29,599
Speaker 1: already more or less explicitly sanctioned. So you know, this

1627
01:25:29,720 --> 01:25:32,639
Speaker 1: is something that initially where there was debate about which

1628
01:25:32,760 --> 01:25:35,479
Speaker 1: direction the energy weapon, if you will, would be used.

1629
01:25:36,120 --> 01:25:39,400
Speaker 1: There was initially concerned that you know, Russia could itself

1630
01:25:39,520 --> 01:25:42,960
Speaker 1: you know, hold back oil exports kind of like we

1631
01:25:43,000 --> 01:25:45,600
Speaker 1: saw during the you know, the the OPEC era, the

1632
01:25:45,640 --> 01:25:49,040
Speaker 1: Arab Opec member and bargo back in seventy three. But

1633
01:25:49,200 --> 01:25:51,679
Speaker 1: I think, you know, over the course of this conflict,

1634
01:25:51,680 --> 01:25:54,559
Speaker 1: we've seen that Russia really wants to maintain those export earnings.

1635
01:25:55,040 --> 01:25:58,040
Speaker 1: And what we've seen is the energy weapon used in

1636
01:25:58,040 --> 01:26:01,600
Speaker 1: the alternative direction kind of this demand security vector, and

1637
01:26:01,680 --> 01:26:03,599
Speaker 1: I think that is you know, this is this big

1638
01:26:03,680 --> 01:26:07,280
Speaker 1: question is whether or not Western governments and Western populations

1639
01:26:07,280 --> 01:26:11,800
Speaker 1: are going to have the wherewithal to stomach the you know,

1640
01:26:11,840 --> 01:26:14,200
Speaker 1: the pain of these kind of price you know, pump

1641
01:26:14,240 --> 01:26:17,320
Speaker 1: price jumps because I think you were saying, are they

1642
01:26:17,360 --> 01:26:19,519
Speaker 1: priced in? I think part of it's priced in, but

1643
01:26:19,520 --> 01:26:22,160
Speaker 1: I think the uncertainty is still so high that I

1644
01:26:22,160 --> 01:26:25,760
Speaker 1: think we could still very easily see prices jump from here.

1645
01:26:25,760 --> 01:26:28,040
Speaker 1: And you were talking a little bit earlier about the backdrop,

1646
01:26:28,120 --> 01:26:31,639
Speaker 1: and you know, just to put in perspective, we already

1647
01:26:31,720 --> 01:26:34,920
Speaker 1: saw where we've already been through a historic kind of

1648
01:26:35,000 --> 01:26:38,559
Speaker 1: record setting rally and oil markets back from negative prices

1649
01:26:38,560 --> 01:26:40,960
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty. All the way up to ninety dollars

1650
01:26:40,960 --> 01:26:43,960
Speaker 1: a barrel brent, even before Russia and Ukraine entered, the

1651
01:26:44,280 --> 01:26:47,559
Speaker 1: entered the headline mix, and that was entirely driven on

1652
01:26:48,160 --> 01:26:51,559
Speaker 1: very kind of organic, slower moving, but very very real

1653
01:26:51,600 --> 01:26:55,479
Speaker 1: fundamental deficits in the market. Twenty one kind of the

1654
01:26:55,479 --> 01:26:58,320
Speaker 1: market was over. It was undersupplied rather by about one

1655
01:26:58,360 --> 01:27:00,320
Speaker 1: and a half to two million barrels a day, two

1656
01:27:00,360 --> 01:27:03,920
Speaker 1: percent of global supply. Even if we lose forty percent

1657
01:27:03,960 --> 01:27:08,040
Speaker 1: of Russia's exports of kind of crude, let's say everything

1658
01:27:08,040 --> 01:27:11,040
Speaker 1: that goes to Europe, let's say that would double the

1659
01:27:11,080 --> 01:27:16,200
Speaker 1: effective deficit. And we're already in kind of wildly tight territory. Geez. See,

1660
01:27:16,280 --> 01:27:18,680
Speaker 1: everything you're saying there just shows that the uncertainty and

1661
01:27:18,760 --> 01:27:21,760
Speaker 1: more Americans can and should expect, probably to pay more

1662
01:27:22,080 --> 01:27:24,200
Speaker 1: at the pump. Now, Rory as an analyst, and you're

1663
01:27:24,280 --> 01:27:28,519
Speaker 1: very dispassionate from what I can tell. When everybody says

1664
01:27:28,760 --> 01:27:31,360
Speaker 1: what to do about it? What does that mean? I

1665
01:27:31,360 --> 01:27:35,240
Speaker 1: saw you castigating the word energy independence. People are talking

1666
01:27:35,240 --> 01:27:37,960
Speaker 1: about drilling more. I am in favor of something like

1667
01:27:38,000 --> 01:27:40,120
Speaker 1: that based on what I can see. Perhaps you can

1668
01:27:40,120 --> 01:27:43,719
Speaker 1: tell me that I'm wrong. Tell Us is there anything

1669
01:27:43,760 --> 01:27:46,200
Speaker 1: that can be done in the short term to lower

1670
01:27:46,240 --> 01:27:48,360
Speaker 1: the price at the pump for the average American. I'm

1671
01:27:48,360 --> 01:27:50,720
Speaker 1: talking in the next three to six months. I mean,

1672
01:27:50,760 --> 01:27:52,320
Speaker 1: so there's two things I think that can be done,

1673
01:27:52,400 --> 01:27:55,439
Speaker 1: and one seems a bit unlikely right now, and the

1674
01:27:55,439 --> 01:27:59,559
Speaker 1: other seems kind of downright terrible. The unlikely one is that,

1675
01:27:59,720 --> 01:28:02,560
Speaker 1: you know, US shale producers really do ramp up what

1676
01:28:02,680 --> 01:28:05,759
Speaker 1: we would have seen in pretty much any prior period,

1677
01:28:05,840 --> 01:28:08,559
Speaker 1: you know, before COVID, would be prices well below this

1678
01:28:08,680 --> 01:28:11,960
Speaker 1: level would have stimulated you know, absolute gangbusters growth in

1679
01:28:12,080 --> 01:28:15,120
Speaker 1: US production, drilling kind of out the wazoo, and we

1680
01:28:15,160 --> 01:28:18,559
Speaker 1: would have seen, you know, in twenty eighteen, for example,

1681
01:28:18,960 --> 01:28:21,640
Speaker 1: with prices well below where they were even before the

1682
01:28:21,720 --> 01:28:25,320
Speaker 1: Russia kind of Ukraine price spike, we saw US production

1683
01:28:25,439 --> 01:28:27,120
Speaker 1: growth of one and a half to two million barrels

1684
01:28:27,120 --> 01:28:29,400
Speaker 1: a day, which was more than global demand growth for

1685
01:28:29,479 --> 01:28:31,800
Speaker 1: that year. So this is this kind of fear that

1686
01:28:32,080 --> 01:28:34,519
Speaker 1: you know, shale would always overproduce and kind of crush

1687
01:28:34,600 --> 01:28:37,519
Speaker 1: the price we have. We haven't seen that this, you know,

1688
01:28:37,840 --> 01:28:39,720
Speaker 1: since COVID, and a lot of that is because of

1689
01:28:39,760 --> 01:28:43,280
Speaker 1: this worry about maintaining cash flow discipline and trying to

1690
01:28:43,320 --> 01:28:46,280
Speaker 1: repay investors, which more or less took a bath for

1691
01:28:46,320 --> 01:28:48,920
Speaker 1: the past decade because these producers were very, very bad

1692
01:28:49,320 --> 01:28:51,719
Speaker 1: at kind of not chasing the prices up and crushing

1693
01:28:51,760 --> 01:28:54,840
Speaker 1: prices you know, once they were there. The other side

1694
01:28:54,880 --> 01:28:56,599
Speaker 1: is on the demand side, and I think what people

1695
01:28:56,640 --> 01:28:58,920
Speaker 1: are increasingly talking right now in the kind of energy

1696
01:28:59,000 --> 01:29:02,240
Speaker 1: analytics space is that we're very quickly going towards a

1697
01:29:02,280 --> 01:29:05,880
Speaker 1: realm of demand destruction. Price is so high that that

1698
01:29:06,040 --> 01:29:08,800
Speaker 1: basically it's a signal for people to stop consuming. And

1699
01:29:08,880 --> 01:29:11,320
Speaker 1: that's how the that's how these balances are finally going

1700
01:29:11,360 --> 01:29:14,160
Speaker 1: to shake out, which you know, no one knows exactly

1701
01:29:14,200 --> 01:29:16,479
Speaker 1: what level that is, but you know, we could easily

1702
01:29:16,479 --> 01:29:18,880
Speaker 1: be talking about one hundred and fifty plus dollars a

1703
01:29:18,880 --> 01:29:23,360
Speaker 1: barrel well over in Canada, two dollars a leader for gasoline.

1704
01:29:23,920 --> 01:29:27,320
Speaker 1: I mean, how lay your marker down for US consumers?

1705
01:29:27,360 --> 01:29:28,920
Speaker 1: How high do you think the price of a gallon

1706
01:29:28,920 --> 01:29:31,679
Speaker 1: of gas is going to go? I mean, five six

1707
01:29:31,720 --> 01:29:34,240
Speaker 1: dollars a gallon is is well within the kind of

1708
01:29:34,280 --> 01:29:38,160
Speaker 1: realm of possibility if if you know it, if it

1709
01:29:38,280 --> 01:29:40,639
Speaker 1: takes even longer, and this is the question the challenges

1710
01:29:40,680 --> 01:29:43,280
Speaker 1: we don't have great information on demand destruction because it's

1711
01:29:43,360 --> 01:29:46,080
Speaker 1: very rare in all of the oil market history that

1712
01:29:46,160 --> 01:29:49,120
Speaker 1: prices have ever actually needed to prompt it. So, you know,

1713
01:29:49,200 --> 01:29:52,360
Speaker 1: on the one side, you know, we consume a lot

1714
01:29:52,479 --> 01:29:55,000
Speaker 1: less oil as a portion of our economy now than

1715
01:29:55,040 --> 01:29:56,960
Speaker 1: we did, you know, in the seventies or even back

1716
01:29:56,960 --> 01:29:59,840
Speaker 1: in the financial crisis. So on one level, you could say, well,

1717
01:30:00,000 --> 01:30:02,719
Speaker 1: consumers can even you know, can swallow even higher prices

1718
01:30:02,760 --> 01:30:06,920
Speaker 1: because of that that lower overall mix of spending. But

1719
01:30:07,400 --> 01:30:09,559
Speaker 1: on the other side, you know, there's a camp that says, well,

1720
01:30:09,560 --> 01:30:12,240
Speaker 1: it's actually the rate of change that matters. And obviously

1721
01:30:12,640 --> 01:30:15,920
Speaker 1: not only you know, prior to the Russia Ukraine's spike,

1722
01:30:16,200 --> 01:30:19,120
Speaker 1: the rate of change was absolutely phenomenal, and you know,

1723
01:30:19,200 --> 01:30:22,519
Speaker 1: this has just put it into entirely kind of unprecedented territory.

1724
01:30:22,600 --> 01:30:24,439
Speaker 1: So if it is the if it is the pace

1725
01:30:24,479 --> 01:30:26,559
Speaker 1: of kind of the shock that matters, then this is

1726
01:30:26,560 --> 01:30:29,040
Speaker 1: definitely gonna have serious damage on the man side. And

1727
01:30:29,080 --> 01:30:32,080
Speaker 1: then in terms of the timescale Rory, you know, what

1728
01:30:32,120 --> 01:30:34,519
Speaker 1: you have laid out here, it just seems to me

1729
01:30:34,680 --> 01:30:36,840
Speaker 1: that this is going to be around for a long time.

1730
01:30:36,880 --> 01:30:39,799
Speaker 1: There does not just seem to be a short way. Actually,

1731
01:30:39,840 --> 01:30:42,040
Speaker 1: something that we've talked about here is even the timeline.

1732
01:30:42,120 --> 01:30:45,719
Speaker 1: Let's say that the shale producers did decide to increase production,

1733
01:30:45,880 --> 01:30:48,080
Speaker 1: even if they did decide to do so right now,

1734
01:30:48,120 --> 01:30:51,320
Speaker 1: could they even alleviate price at the pump? Like how

1735
01:30:51,360 --> 01:30:53,880
Speaker 1: long would that take? Is what I'm saying. Yeah, So

1736
01:30:54,200 --> 01:30:57,040
Speaker 1: one interesting thing about US production is that, unlike most

1737
01:30:57,160 --> 01:30:59,519
Speaker 1: global oil production, which takes you know, up, you know,

1738
01:30:59,560 --> 01:31:02,040
Speaker 1: five to ten years to kind of sanction and kind

1739
01:31:02,040 --> 01:31:04,519
Speaker 1: of get into production, US shale is known as short cycle,

1740
01:31:04,520 --> 01:31:06,639
Speaker 1: which means it can kind of come up and get

1741
01:31:06,640 --> 01:31:08,960
Speaker 1: going really quickly, probably in the span of three to

1742
01:31:09,000 --> 01:31:11,120
Speaker 1: six months. You could you could see a very meaningful,

1743
01:31:11,680 --> 01:31:15,080
Speaker 1: uh supply response if the if people started actually deploying

1744
01:31:15,160 --> 01:31:17,200
Speaker 1: the drilling rigs in the field right now, and there

1745
01:31:17,240 --> 01:31:19,720
Speaker 1: weren't all of these other kind of supply chain bottlenecks

1746
01:31:19,720 --> 01:31:23,320
Speaker 1: that we're seeing. Labor, you know, there's there's an issue

1747
01:31:23,360 --> 01:31:26,639
Speaker 1: with sand availability, which is used in the fracking process.

1748
01:31:26,920 --> 01:31:30,440
Speaker 1: So again, these are these are all you know, complex

1749
01:31:30,640 --> 01:31:33,600
Speaker 1: kind of supply chain factors that we don't have fantastic

1750
01:31:33,720 --> 01:31:36,280
Speaker 1: visibility on in the best of times, and you know,

1751
01:31:36,360 --> 01:31:38,120
Speaker 1: the pace of things, you know, the pace of things

1752
01:31:38,160 --> 01:31:40,320
Speaker 1: are moving now. Well, a lot of our data is

1753
01:31:40,400 --> 01:31:43,000
Speaker 1: lagged by upwards of two months, which two months was

1754
01:31:43,160 --> 01:31:45,360
Speaker 1: literally a lifetime ago. So we're kind of, you know,

1755
01:31:45,400 --> 01:31:47,679
Speaker 1: anamals are kind of staring at this market to a degree,

1756
01:31:47,760 --> 01:31:50,839
Speaker 1: kind of blind, kind of you know. The only signal

1757
01:31:50,880 --> 01:31:52,640
Speaker 1: that is active that is moving as quickly as the

1758
01:31:52,640 --> 01:31:54,599
Speaker 1: market right now is the price itself, which is kind

1759
01:31:54,600 --> 01:31:57,120
Speaker 1: of your signal that you know, we're moving towards that

1760
01:31:57,160 --> 01:32:01,200
Speaker 1: demand destruction kind of you know threshold. Wow, well, Rory,

1761
01:32:01,240 --> 01:32:03,840
Speaker 1: this has been very, very helpful. We got your linked

1762
01:32:03,880 --> 01:32:06,360
Speaker 1: your substack down in the description. Thank you for just

1763
01:32:06,360 --> 01:32:08,560
Speaker 1: for breaking it down for us and laying out a

1764
01:32:08,600 --> 01:32:10,800
Speaker 1: sad picture, but at least an accurate one. Yeah, thank you.

1765
01:32:10,880 --> 01:32:13,000
Speaker 1: Great to meet you, Rory. Thank you, thanks much for

1766
01:32:13,080 --> 01:32:16,000
Speaker 1: having me you guys absolutely man, Thank you guys so

1767
01:32:16,040 --> 01:32:18,679
Speaker 1: much for watching. We really appreciate it. All of your work,

1768
01:32:18,760 --> 01:32:21,320
Speaker 1: you know, just make all of your support makes it

1769
01:32:21,400 --> 01:32:23,360
Speaker 1: so that we can continue to do what we do.

1770
01:32:23,400 --> 01:32:26,080
Speaker 1: We've got all a great number of partnerships, both Marshall

1771
01:32:26,120 --> 01:32:29,360
Speaker 1: and Kyle. We'll be premiering on the Channel tomorrow. We've

1772
01:32:29,400 --> 01:32:32,600
Speaker 1: got some fun stuff here in the Pipeline on Pipeline

1773
01:32:32,600 --> 01:32:36,599
Speaker 1: Wow fun with James Lee as well. We've got another

1774
01:32:37,080 --> 01:32:40,439
Speaker 1: very exciting partnership to announce soon. Matt Stoler's video continues

1775
01:32:40,479 --> 01:32:42,639
Speaker 1: to do well. You're supporting all that work and all

1776
01:32:42,640 --> 01:32:45,880
Speaker 1: the build up here to the mid term elections, in

1777
01:32:45,880 --> 01:32:49,240
Speaker 1: addition to the dynamic coverage that we require of Ukraine,

1778
01:32:49,280 --> 01:32:51,479
Speaker 1: which you know put extra hours and making sure that

1779
01:32:51,520 --> 01:32:54,040
Speaker 1: everything is going smoothly. So thank you all so much

1780
01:32:54,080 --> 01:32:55,800
Speaker 1: for your support. It means a lot, and there's a

1781
01:32:55,840 --> 01:32:57,320
Speaker 1: link down there in the description if you can help

1782
01:32:57,360 --> 01:32:59,479
Speaker 1: us out. Thank you very much, Love you guys so much.

1783
01:32:59,640 --> 01:33:01,720
Speaker 1: Enjoy the content tomorrow and we will see you back

1784
01:33:01,720 --> 01:33:18,440
Speaker 1: here on Thursday. See your Thursday