1
00:00:00,760 --> 00:00:03,720
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

2
00:00:03,880 --> 00:00:06,360
Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

3
00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:08,600
Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

4
00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:11,719
Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

5
00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:15,720
Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent.

6
00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:16,239
Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

7
00:00:16,280 --> 00:00:18,320
Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

8
00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:20,080
Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support.

9
00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:21,840
Speaker 3: But enough with that, let's get to the show.

10
00:00:29,600 --> 00:00:32,800
Speaker 4: Welcome to Counterpoints. I'm joined today, of course by Ryan Grimm,

11
00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:36,960
Speaker 4: who's looking love actually not. Ryan's out for one more week,

12
00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:39,240
Speaker 4: and Crystal is filling in. Thank you so much, Chrystal.

13
00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:40,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, you guys are stuck with me all week, so

14
00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:42,440
Speaker 1: apologies for that. But we have a lot of good

15
00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:44,519
Speaker 1: stuff to talk about today. We've got big developments with

16
00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:47,360
Speaker 1: the debt ceiling. Emily has some inside scoop about what

17
00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:48,760
Speaker 1: the Freedom Caucus is thinking.

18
00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:50,040
Speaker 5: Right, that's fair to say.

19
00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:52,160
Speaker 3: Right, I think so, a little insight, I guess.

20
00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:54,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, So we'll get into that big day for whether

21
00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:56,720
Speaker 1: that is going to pass or not. We also have

22
00:00:56,800 --> 00:01:00,840
Speaker 1: some escalations in terms of US Chinese tensions, including sort

23
00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:03,320
Speaker 1: of interaction between two fighter jets that we have some

24
00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:06,120
Speaker 1: video of we can show you. Also, this is perfect

25
00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:08,520
Speaker 1: for Emily deep dive into what is going on in

26
00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:12,800
Speaker 1: the state of Wisconsin, especially Republicans sort of despairing there

27
00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:14,399
Speaker 1: about whether they're going to be able to win back

28
00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:16,319
Speaker 1: the state, especially with the politics of abortion.

29
00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:17,280
Speaker 5: So we'll talk about that.

30
00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:20,800
Speaker 1: Some new numbers about how millennials are doing in terms

31
00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:24,240
Speaker 1: of their finances and the factors that you know, to

32
00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:26,920
Speaker 1: have student loan debt weighs into all of that. Ted

33
00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,039
Speaker 1: Cruz getting in some hot water, I guess with his

34
00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:32,200
Speaker 1: own base over some comments he made about that horrific

35
00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:36,160
Speaker 1: law that was just passed against LGBTQ people in Uganda, So.

36
00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:37,360
Speaker 5: We'll talk about that as well.

37
00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:39,240
Speaker 1: But we did want to start with the very latest

38
00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:40,840
Speaker 1: in terms of the debt sealing.

39
00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:41,240
Speaker 5: Emily.

40
00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:44,039
Speaker 4: That's right because it continues to change on a minute

41
00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:47,000
Speaker 4: by minute basis. As obviously, the House is expected to

42
00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:50,280
Speaker 4: vote today. Kevin McCarthy now reportedly wants to get to

43
00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:54,280
Speaker 4: one hundred and fifty Republican votes for this deal that

44
00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:57,760
Speaker 4: was brokeered by the Republican Speaker of the House out

45
00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:01,040
Speaker 4: of two hundred and twenty two Republicans, So.

46
00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:03,680
Speaker 3: That means he's expecting or hoping at.

47
00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:08,040
Speaker 4: Best, to lose some seventy members of his own conference.

48
00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:10,720
Speaker 4: We're going to get into in a little bit why

49
00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:14,160
Speaker 4: so many members of the Freedom Caucus and of Kevin McCarthy,

50
00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:17,000
Speaker 4: not even just Freedom Caucus members, but people like Nancy

51
00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:20,240
Speaker 4: Mace are upset with this deal. But for now, let's

52
00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:23,160
Speaker 4: start with Jake Sherman. You can put up a one here.

53
00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:27,080
Speaker 4: He's saying, this is Thomas Massey. He's a libertarian member

54
00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:30,360
Speaker 4: of the Freedom Caucus. He's saying, quote, he anticipates voting

55
00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,200
Speaker 4: for this rule. That is, as Jake Sherman says, big

56
00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:38,120
Speaker 4: for Republican leadership, because Kevin McCarthy needs Thomas Massey, needs

57
00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,440
Speaker 4: people like Thomas Massey to kind of fall in line

58
00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:44,000
Speaker 4: on this vote in order to potentially get to that

59
00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:47,320
Speaker 4: one hundred and fifty number. Obviously, if you've been following

60
00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:50,280
Speaker 4: this story, Republicans were feeling good about it. They passed

61
00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:53,120
Speaker 4: their budget earlier this year. They felt really good about

62
00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:55,239
Speaker 4: that budget. Obviously, it was a non starter with the

63
00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:57,520
Speaker 4: White House. The White House said we're not negotiating at all,

64
00:02:57,880 --> 00:02:58,880
Speaker 4: ended up negotiating.

65
00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:00,600
Speaker 3: Democrats are unhappy about that.

66
00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:04,640
Speaker 4: It's now on the floor of the House today and

67
00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:08,160
Speaker 4: the Biden administration actually isn't that upset about what is

68
00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:08,959
Speaker 4: going to be passed.

69
00:03:08,960 --> 00:03:13,040
Speaker 3: We can use a two here. This is from Lauren Fox.

70
00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:16,760
Speaker 4: Now in the Senate, John Thune here has said this

71
00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:19,160
Speaker 4: is this is also a really big quote. He's confident

72
00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:21,800
Speaker 4: there will be at least nine Republican Senators who support

73
00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:23,959
Speaker 4: the debt selling bill assuming it comes to the Senate.

74
00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:26,240
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, Doom told CNN when pressed on if there

75
00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:28,919
Speaker 4: would be enough GOP votes to clear a sixty vote

76
00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:33,200
Speaker 4: threshold in the chamber. All right, so not only does

77
00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:36,040
Speaker 4: the math then check out in the House, the math

78
00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:38,440
Speaker 4: checks out in the Senate, and President Biden is.

79
00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:39,280
Speaker 3: Cool with the deal.

80
00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:42,920
Speaker 4: Let's actually roll or we'll take one look. Actually here

81
00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:45,320
Speaker 4: at what Speaker McCarthy, this is a you can put up.

82
00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:46,480
Speaker 3: The next element A three.

83
00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:49,200
Speaker 4: We have a lot of like rapid fire reactions that

84
00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:50,840
Speaker 4: have been coming out over the course of the last

85
00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:51,880
Speaker 4: day as there's been.

86
00:03:51,760 --> 00:03:52,880
Speaker 3: A little bit of a revolt.

87
00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:55,960
Speaker 4: This is Kevin McCarthy kind of taking a w here,

88
00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,920
Speaker 4: saying President Biden claimed he'd never negotiate. Leader Schumer insisted

89
00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:03,120
Speaker 4: there'd be a quote clean debt increase, they were wrong.

90
00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:07,240
Speaker 4: Republicans fought to spend less, block Biden's new tax proposals,

91
00:04:07,320 --> 00:04:11,120
Speaker 4: clawback unspent COVID money, and fully offend our Veteran Fund,

92
00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:16,080
Speaker 4: our veterans and defense priorities. Okay, So there you have

93
00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:21,200
Speaker 4: Kevin McCarthy saying expectations were low and Republicans met them essentially,

94
00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:23,680
Speaker 4: is what he's saying. And one thing I've heard from

95
00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:27,800
Speaker 4: some folks is that it's one thing to say, listen,

96
00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:30,719
Speaker 4: we have little leverage. We don't want to play default chicken,

97
00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:32,919
Speaker 4: so this is the best we could do working with

98
00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:36,200
Speaker 4: the president. On the other hand, trying to sell this

99
00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:39,520
Speaker 4: deal as a big win is a totally different choice,

100
00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:43,080
Speaker 4: and that I think is definitely what's rankling some folks.

101
00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:44,200
Speaker 5: So a couple things.

102
00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:47,040
Speaker 1: First, on the mechanics, they passed the first hurdle through

103
00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:50,840
Speaker 1: that Rules committee. That was the Thomas Massey situation. He

104
00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:52,400
Speaker 1: was like the swing vote there and it passed out

105
00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:53,560
Speaker 1: of the Rules Committee seven to six.

106
00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:54,560
Speaker 5: That was the first hurdle.

107
00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:56,880
Speaker 1: Now they're looking to have an actual vote on the

108
00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:59,719
Speaker 1: House floor, and I don't think anyone doubts that there's

109
00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:04,080
Speaker 1: a of House members, both Republicans and Democrats. If you

110
00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:06,760
Speaker 1: put him together, who would vote for this debt sealing

111
00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:11,240
Speaker 1: deal in grease situation. The challenge for McCarthy is that

112
00:05:11,600 --> 00:05:14,080
Speaker 1: he has to have a majority of his caucus, and

113
00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:16,480
Speaker 1: as you're pointing out, Emily, he's actually setting the bar

114
00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:18,279
Speaker 1: a little bit higher than that. He doesn't want to

115
00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:21,120
Speaker 1: just barely have a majority of his caucus. He wants

116
00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:23,240
Speaker 1: to have the bulk of his caucus, something like two

117
00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:25,560
Speaker 1: thirds of the caucus behind this deal for him to

118
00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:28,480
Speaker 1: feel comfortable. Why because, as we're about to talk about,

119
00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:32,480
Speaker 1: if he doesn't, his speakership could be in jeopardy. You

120
00:05:32,560 --> 00:05:35,400
Speaker 1: already have rumblings and more than rumblings from some members

121
00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:37,680
Speaker 1: of the House Freedom Caucus about being very unhappy and

122
00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:38,680
Speaker 1: upset with this deal.

123
00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:41,360
Speaker 5: So that's the mechanics of it. Those are the big hurdles.

124
00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:43,880
Speaker 1: Still remains to be seen how many Republicans go along

125
00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:45,800
Speaker 1: with this, given the fact that you have not just

126
00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:48,040
Speaker 1: the House Freedom Caucus, other members as you point out,

127
00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:50,880
Speaker 1: like Nancy Mace, and also a lot of conservative media

128
00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:54,640
Speaker 1: and people like Ron de Santis, Mike Pence, a number

129
00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:58,120
Speaker 1: of mainstream Republican figures and a lot of conservative media

130
00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:00,320
Speaker 1: that have come out against this steal. So that's sort

131
00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:01,840
Speaker 1: of the lay of the land. Do I think it's

132
00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:03,520
Speaker 1: going to pass? Do I think he's going to get

133
00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:05,120
Speaker 1: the numbers fight to bad? I'd tell you yes, yeah,

134
00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:07,160
Speaker 1: but I don't think it's at all, like one hundred

135
00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:10,160
Speaker 1: percent certain. So that's kind of where things stand. What

136
00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:13,320
Speaker 1: I'm interested to get from you is, you know, I

137
00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:15,920
Speaker 1: think it was a mistake the way that Biden and

138
00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:18,159
Speaker 1: the Democrats played this from the beginning. I think it

139
00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:20,440
Speaker 1: was a mistake to say we won't negotiate and then

140
00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:22,120
Speaker 1: to cave. I think it was a mistake to take

141
00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:25,200
Speaker 1: off the table things like the fourteenth Amendment and other workarounds,

142
00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:28,719
Speaker 1: because that completely stripped the White House of their leverage. Like,

143
00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:31,920
Speaker 1: it became very clear Biden was determined to get a deal,

144
00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:36,120
Speaker 1: and that's why Democrats and people like me expected there

145
00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:39,320
Speaker 1: to be a lot more extracted out of his side

146
00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:42,040
Speaker 1: of the bargain than ultimately was. I still think this

147
00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:44,080
Speaker 1: deal is bad, have all kinds of issues with it,

148
00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:47,040
Speaker 1: but it's a lot less bad from my perspective than

149
00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:50,039
Speaker 1: what I expected. So what do you think happened here?

150
00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:53,760
Speaker 1: Like didn't maccon seriously? Like is McCarthy close to Wall

151
00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:56,440
Speaker 1: Street and they were freaked down about what going over

152
00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:57,600
Speaker 1: the cliff might mean.

153
00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:00,400
Speaker 5: Did he just you know, was he like charmed by Biden?

154
00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:02,360
Speaker 1: And Biden's really that great of a negotiat or some

155
00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:06,760
Speaker 1: like what is the explanation for why the deal ended

156
00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:10,360
Speaker 1: up being a lot less than what I expected and

157
00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:12,800
Speaker 1: what a lot of Republicans expected they might be able

158
00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:14,200
Speaker 1: to extract down of this situation.

159
00:07:14,440 --> 00:07:16,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's not wanting to play default chicken.

160
00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:19,200
Speaker 4: At the end of the day. Kevin McCarthy, I think

161
00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:22,679
Speaker 4: understands that the media is going to take Biden's side.

162
00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,160
Speaker 4: It's not going to take his side if an actual

163
00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:28,280
Speaker 4: default looms. And that's this is all happening in the

164
00:07:28,320 --> 00:07:31,120
Speaker 4: context of the X date, right, which Janet Yellen first

165
00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:36,200
Speaker 4: pegged to June one, which would be what is that Thursday.

166
00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:36,680
Speaker 3: So coming right up borrow so tomorrow.

167
00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:39,960
Speaker 4: That's why the vote is happening today because there's the city.

168
00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:42,200
Speaker 3: She then sort of said it might be more like

169
00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:42,920
Speaker 3: June fifth.

170
00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:47,559
Speaker 4: It's sort of a subjective figure, but that's not wanting

171
00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,360
Speaker 4: to play default chicken. Learning or looking back on the

172
00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:53,080
Speaker 4: Tea Party years and all of the times where that

173
00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:56,720
Speaker 4: did not go well for Republicans, either with voters or

174
00:07:56,760 --> 00:07:58,120
Speaker 4: with the media.

175
00:07:58,240 --> 00:07:59,600
Speaker 3: Probably because of the media and.

176
00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:03,080
Speaker 4: Some in some sense, I think is what made everything

177
00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:07,440
Speaker 4: become a rushed urgent and put the ball in Biden

178
00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:10,760
Speaker 4: and the Democrats court. And we see clearly that Biden

179
00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:13,160
Speaker 4: and the Democrats know the ball is in their court.

180
00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:14,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, some sound we're going to play in a bit.

181
00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:20,080
Speaker 4: But it's been very interesting to see Republicans spreading all

182
00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:23,240
Speaker 4: of these messages from kind of establishment Dems saying how

183
00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:24,280
Speaker 4: happy they are with the deal.

184
00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:25,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's interesting.

185
00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:30,440
Speaker 1: You see two very different stratu communication strategies. Biden even

186
00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:32,640
Speaker 1: came out and said, we played this with Saugury yesterday.

187
00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:35,200
Speaker 1: He even came out and said, do you really think

188
00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,080
Speaker 1: it would help get this deal through if I was

189
00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:39,520
Speaker 1: out there like singing its praises and how great it

190
00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:42,119
Speaker 1: was and like growing about what a great deal Democrats

191
00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:45,240
Speaker 1: were able to achieve. So the White House has made

192
00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:48,600
Speaker 1: a strategic decision to keep things kind of quiet and

193
00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:52,240
Speaker 1: not rub Republicans' noses in the fact that they didn't

194
00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:55,160
Speaker 1: get everything that they wanted. Again, I think the deal

195
00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:56,960
Speaker 1: is bad and have issues with it, but it's not

196
00:08:57,000 --> 00:08:58,240
Speaker 1: as bad as I thought it was going.

197
00:08:58,200 --> 00:08:59,360
Speaker 5: To be Republicans.

198
00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:02,480
Speaker 1: On the other hand, Kevin McCarthy, we showed his comments earlier.

199
00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,080
Speaker 1: He's really out there trying to sell like, oh, we

200
00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:07,680
Speaker 1: really showed the Democrats and they didn't get anything, and

201
00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:09,240
Speaker 1: here's all the great cuts that we.

202
00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:10,079
Speaker 5: Were able to achieve.

203
00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:13,880
Speaker 1: So even that is kind of a tell of which

204
00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:16,480
Speaker 1: side really feels like they got the better end of

205
00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:17,640
Speaker 1: these negotiations.

206
00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:18,480
Speaker 3: That's a good point.

207
00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:18,679
Speaker 2: End.

208
00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:21,360
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, let's put up a four because to Crystal's point,

209
00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:25,080
Speaker 4: Newt Gingrich is out there sort of trumpeting the what

210
00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:28,640
Speaker 4: does Nancy Pelosi call herself a master legislator, the master

211
00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:32,920
Speaker 4: legislation legislating of Kevin McCarthy. He said, the debt limit

212
00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:37,559
Speaker 4: deal is a dramatic victory for Speaker McCarthy and House Republicans.

213
00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:42,840
Speaker 4: Before they passed their history changing bill, no one would

214
00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:47,240
Speaker 4: have believed it possible to cut spending, re establish work requirements,

215
00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:50,520
Speaker 4: reform permitting for energy and infrastructure.

216
00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:50,640
Speaker 3: And more.

217
00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:53,640
Speaker 4: There's some truth to that, which I think some people

218
00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:57,480
Speaker 4: in this moment there's a little bit of negotiation theater,

219
00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:00,160
Speaker 4: which is inevitable in any type of deal like this.

220
00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:01,800
Speaker 3: That's happening on Capitol Hill.

221
00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:04,000
Speaker 4: Or even if you're trying to buy a used car,

222
00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:06,040
Speaker 4: or if you're playing poker, right, you have to have

223
00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:06,800
Speaker 4: your poker place.

224
00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:09,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, vote your poker face. There's some measure of theater

225
00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:10,319
Speaker 3: that's happening.

226
00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:13,000
Speaker 4: And so there is some part of the Freedom Caucus

227
00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:15,880
Speaker 4: guys that they're saying, like, listen, we're go back to

228
00:10:15,880 --> 00:10:18,200
Speaker 4: the negotiating table. The president of the Heritage Foundation, Kevin

229
00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:20,200
Speaker 4: Roberts said, go back to the negotiating table.

230
00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:21,199
Speaker 3: This is unacceptable.

231
00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:23,440
Speaker 4: To see if they can get Kevin McCarthy back to

232
00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:24,439
Speaker 4: the negotiating table.

233
00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:26,320
Speaker 3: But he does not have much leverage.

234
00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,000
Speaker 4: He has never had much leverage, and so the likelihood

235
00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:30,800
Speaker 4: of something like this being.

236
00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:33,000
Speaker 3: The deal was always pretty high.

237
00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:36,080
Speaker 4: Now, could it have been better? I think absolutely yes.

238
00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:38,360
Speaker 4: I don't think anybody is wrong to be upset about

239
00:10:38,360 --> 00:10:41,319
Speaker 4: this deal. There is no truth to the fact that

240
00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:43,400
Speaker 4: when you don't want to play default chicken.

241
00:10:43,520 --> 00:10:45,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, if you don't want to be blamed.

242
00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:46,680
Speaker 4: For that because you know the media is going to

243
00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:49,520
Speaker 4: say it was those dang Republicans, then.

244
00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:51,680
Speaker 3: Hey, you don't have it. Let like, you have no

245
00:10:51,800 --> 00:10:52,320
Speaker 3: leverage at all.

246
00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:55,480
Speaker 4: Basically, when you don't control two thirds of the government.

247
00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, so McCarthy, I guess in the end wasn't able

248
00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:01,720
Speaker 1: to posture as being as crazy as like the Freedom

249
00:11:01,760 --> 00:11:02,400
Speaker 1: Gaucus types.

250
00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:02,720
Speaker 5: Truly.

251
00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:06,400
Speaker 1: I mean, that is a one frequent tactic in negotiations

252
00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:07,720
Speaker 1: that's very effective.

253
00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:09,839
Speaker 5: I mean Trump uses sometimes.

254
00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:12,280
Speaker 1: Where you had to appear like you're crazy enough to

255
00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,280
Speaker 1: actually take the thing over the cliff. And you know,

256
00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:17,880
Speaker 1: I guess he decided that for political reasons, or for

257
00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:20,640
Speaker 1: Wall Street reasons, or whatever reasons, he wasn't really willing

258
00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:25,160
Speaker 1: to be as wild eyed and as crazy as you know,

259
00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:27,760
Speaker 1: maybe the Lauren Boberts and the Marjorie Taylor Greens and

260
00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:29,560
Speaker 1: the Matt Gates of the world would want him to be.

261
00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:33,080
Speaker 1: It is interesting, as I said before, the Biden White

262
00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:35,960
Speaker 1: House has tried to sort of be a little quiet,

263
00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:38,080
Speaker 1: just let this thing all roll out. And there are

264
00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:40,200
Speaker 1: a lot of Democrats too who have been expressing like

265
00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,439
Speaker 1: their dissatisfaction with the deal, especially the cuts to the I.

266
00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:45,520
Speaker 5: R US, some of the work requirements stuff.

267
00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:49,560
Speaker 1: Although it just came out that on the SNAP that's

268
00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:53,400
Speaker 1: the Food Stamp Program Work Requirements edition. Once you net

269
00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:55,679
Speaker 1: out all the changes that were made to SNAP, you're

270
00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:57,920
Speaker 1: actually going to have an increase of seventy eight thousand

271
00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:01,480
Speaker 1: additional recipients on SNAP. So I don't think Democrats can

272
00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:03,520
Speaker 1: be too mad about the changes that were made there.

273
00:12:03,559 --> 00:12:06,400
Speaker 1: And the reason is because while they're increasing work requirements

274
00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:11,160
Speaker 1: on single men between fifty and fifty four, they are

275
00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:15,720
Speaker 1: eliminating work requirements for veterans and homeless people. So that's

276
00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:18,480
Speaker 1: why you have this net increase. In any case, you

277
00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:23,040
Speaker 1: did have a Biden economic advisor who went on CNN

278
00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:24,560
Speaker 1: to sell this deal a little bit.

279
00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:26,679
Speaker 5: Let's listen to how he's speaking to it, and.

280
00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:29,000
Speaker 6: We're confident that it'll get to the President's desk. I

281
00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:32,200
Speaker 6: want to emphasize that it accomplishes three main things. Number One,

282
00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:34,480
Speaker 6: it takes the possibility of a default off the table,

283
00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:37,560
Speaker 6: which means we avoid on almost certain recession because of

284
00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:40,920
Speaker 6: a first ever debt default. Number Two, it protects all

285
00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:42,800
Speaker 6: of the key pieces of the legislation that the President's

286
00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:45,319
Speaker 6: signed into law in the last two years, new investments

287
00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:49,520
Speaker 6: in clean energy, new investments in semiconductor manufacturing, new infrastructure

288
00:12:49,520 --> 00:12:52,120
Speaker 6: investments that are being seen across the country. And third

289
00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:55,440
Speaker 6: of all, it protects social security, protects Medicare, it protects

290
00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:58,800
Speaker 6: medicate all these important programs that Americans rely on. What

291
00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:02,960
Speaker 6: we are trying to do is reserve those investments, preserve

292
00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:05,840
Speaker 6: the progress that we have made, and we've done that

293
00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:08,400
Speaker 6: by essentially locking in the wins that we've gotten over

294
00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:09,320
Speaker 6: the last two years.

295
00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:12,800
Speaker 1: So a big piece of the negotiations Republicans in their

296
00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:15,080
Speaker 1: bill that they passed originally from the House had really

297
00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:17,480
Speaker 1: taken an ax that the Inflation Reduction Act, which has

298
00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:20,440
Speaker 1: a lot of tax credits to move towards clean energy transition,

299
00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:23,079
Speaker 1: none of that was touched. And I do think that

300
00:13:23,080 --> 00:13:25,960
Speaker 1: that was an important win for the White House, given

301
00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:29,040
Speaker 1: the fact that, you know, I think their whole approach

302
00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:31,000
Speaker 1: to the White House from the beginning was really stupid

303
00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:32,240
Speaker 1: and ill and advice, etc.

304
00:13:32,679 --> 00:13:33,040
Speaker 3: Agree.

305
00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:35,559
Speaker 1: But given that they put themselves in a really bad position,

306
00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:37,880
Speaker 1: the fact they were able to protect all of the

307
00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:41,160
Speaker 1: Inflation Production Act, which is the signature achievement of President

308
00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:44,280
Speaker 1: Biden and of some of the more progressive folks in Congress,

309
00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:45,800
Speaker 1: I do think that was an important.

310
00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,080
Speaker 4: Part, absolutely, and that's one of the big things that

311
00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:50,880
Speaker 4: Freedom Caucus members are looking at and saying, we passed

312
00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:54,200
Speaker 4: this budget, this was important to us, and here we are,

313
00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:57,000
Speaker 4: we're at a place where none.

314
00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:58,679
Speaker 3: Of that was touched the IRS.

315
00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:02,120
Speaker 4: What this bill does with the I mean ever sends

316
00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:05,679
Speaker 4: one point for a billion and IRS funding, But that's

317
00:14:05,760 --> 00:14:08,679
Speaker 4: really like, that's not what people wanted, because that was

318
00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:11,240
Speaker 4: also a huge cornersett of Biden's agenda. When you're adding

319
00:14:11,280 --> 00:14:14,200
Speaker 4: eighty seven thousand new employees at the IRS, some of

320
00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:16,160
Speaker 4: whom will be agents, not all eighty seven thousand will

321
00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:19,600
Speaker 4: be agents. But that was a huge, huge Republican talking point,

322
00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:22,280
Speaker 4: and most of it didn't happen, and most of it

323
00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,520
Speaker 4: I don't think they're seeing Kevin McCarthy fight for and

324
00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:28,680
Speaker 4: I think that's probably what's upsetting them, because not only

325
00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:31,320
Speaker 4: are they they're not seeing him fight for it, they're

326
00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:34,600
Speaker 4: also not seeing him say listen, this is the best

327
00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:37,040
Speaker 4: we can do and sort of be kind of blatant

328
00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:40,960
Speaker 4: and obvious about the problems. He's really trying to act

329
00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:43,680
Speaker 4: like this is a great deal to you know, Nut Gingrich,

330
00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:46,560
Speaker 4: who's is an ally of Kevin McCarthy, to the point

331
00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:47,640
Speaker 4: that he tweeted that out.

332
00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:50,440
Speaker 3: I think that tells you kind of what the problem is.

333
00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:52,840
Speaker 4: Acting like this is a huge win as opposed to

334
00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:54,320
Speaker 4: saying this is the best we can do.

335
00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:56,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, let's transition to talking about the House Freedom

336
00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:59,920
Speaker 1: Caucus and some of their reaction, because you know, they're

337
00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:01,880
Speaker 1: two questions. First of all, were they going to vote

338
00:15:01,880 --> 00:15:03,160
Speaker 1: for the deal? Most of them are not going to

339
00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,800
Speaker 1: vote for the deal. But McCarthy doesn't need them either.

340
00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:08,760
Speaker 1: If most of the rust of the Republican Caucus hangs

341
00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:10,680
Speaker 1: in there, then he'll be good in terms of getting

342
00:15:10,680 --> 00:15:13,800
Speaker 1: it passed. But one of the provisions that was in

343
00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:18,240
Speaker 1: that original deal to make Kevin McCarthy speaker was to

344
00:15:18,280 --> 00:15:19,600
Speaker 1: make it easier.

345
00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:21,400
Speaker 5: To kick his butt out if they didn't like what

346
00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:21,800
Speaker 5: he did.

347
00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:24,520
Speaker 1: And so you're starting to hear a few of them

348
00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:27,640
Speaker 1: float this idea of, hey, maybe McCarthy's not the guy,

349
00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:29,480
Speaker 1: maybe we need to get him out in there. Go

350
00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:31,360
Speaker 1: ahead and speak to a little bit of that, Emily,

351
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:32,480
Speaker 1: And what the dynamics are.

352
00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:34,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is really interesting. It's some of the same

353
00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,360
Speaker 4: dynamics from the speakership battle. Folks will remember from January

354
00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:40,640
Speaker 4: when it took what nineteen rounds to finally elect Kevin

355
00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:43,200
Speaker 4: McCarthy a speaker, in which he had to ring concession

356
00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:46,360
Speaker 4: after concession or they run concession after concession out of

357
00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:48,480
Speaker 4: Kevin McCarthy, including the motion of a Kate, which is

358
00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:52,040
Speaker 4: something that Nancy Pelosi torpedoed after she saw what happened

359
00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:55,000
Speaker 4: to John Bayner back in the Tea Party years and now.

360
00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:57,480
Speaker 4: That is a very real threat for Kevin McCarthy, because

361
00:15:57,520 --> 00:15:59,840
Speaker 4: when you have most of the Freedom Caucus really upset

362
00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:02,320
Speaker 4: up about this, that's more than enough people to call

363
00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:05,000
Speaker 4: for a motion to vacate the chair, which would oust

364
00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:08,800
Speaker 4: Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker and put Republicans back in

365
00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:12,120
Speaker 4: another pickle where they don't really have a consensus candidate.

366
00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:14,720
Speaker 4: They don't really have anybody that could unite enough votes

367
00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:17,760
Speaker 4: to become the next speaker. So this threatens the entire

368
00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:22,080
Speaker 4: House Republican Conference, not just the bill itself. To a Crystal's point,

369
00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:24,520
Speaker 4: I think the math is pretty safe for Kevin McCarthy.

370
00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:27,200
Speaker 4: He wants to put up more, you know, he wants

371
00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:28,760
Speaker 4: to get at least one hundred and fifty of the

372
00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:32,440
Speaker 4: two hundred and twenty two House Republicans. That means he's

373
00:16:32,520 --> 00:16:36,080
Speaker 4: expecting possibly to lose more than seventy members of his

374
00:16:36,120 --> 00:16:38,440
Speaker 4: own conference. So we'll see what the math actually works

375
00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:41,920
Speaker 4: out to. But I think that's important context for this

376
00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:44,240
Speaker 4: next clip, we can go ahead and play a six

377
00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:48,440
Speaker 4: because you see how serious this is getting for Kevin McCarthy.

378
00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:50,200
Speaker 7: Here, how much I mean, how much confidence do you

379
00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:51,320
Speaker 7: have in a speaker right now?

380
00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:52,120
Speaker 3: None?

381
00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:52,680
Speaker 2: Zero?

382
00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:55,280
Speaker 5: What basis is there for confidence?

383
00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:59,080
Speaker 6: You cannot forfeit the tool of Republican unity. It was

384
00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:01,720
Speaker 6: not necessary to do just speak of lying about the

385
00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:02,960
Speaker 6: way he's characterizing this bill.

386
00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,520
Speaker 7: Yes, he's a lot, but the bill is chock full

387
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:09,399
Speaker 7: of things that are cosmetic and artificial.

388
00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:09,840
Speaker 3: All right.

389
00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:11,760
Speaker 4: So that's a motion of a kape threat. And we've

390
00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:14,479
Speaker 4: seen that come from several members of the Freedom Caucus

391
00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:16,399
Speaker 4: of the last like twenty four hours. Again, it seems

392
00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:17,840
Speaker 4: like it's one of those things that every hour you're

393
00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:20,359
Speaker 4: seeing a new Freedom Caucus remember, threaten the motion to vacate.

394
00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:23,600
Speaker 4: Let's go ahead and play this SoundBite from Chip Roy,

395
00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:26,840
Speaker 4: who has emerged. He certainly emerged during the speakership battle.

396
00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:31,159
Speaker 4: He's actually a former Hill staffer himself. He yeah, he

397
00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:34,520
Speaker 4: worked for Ted Cruz actually, and he really emerged as

398
00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:36,280
Speaker 4: a leader of the Freedom Caucus folks and in the

399
00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:39,320
Speaker 4: Republican Party during the speakership battle and has taken up

400
00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:41,879
Speaker 4: the same sort of role in these negotiations. Here's what

401
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:43,520
Speaker 4: he said yesterday outside the Capitol.

402
00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:48,679
Speaker 7: Hi, colleagues, be very clear, not one Republican should vote

403
00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:52,960
Speaker 7: for this deal. It is a bad deal. No one

404
00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:57,160
Speaker 7: sent us here to borrow an additional four trillion dollars,

405
00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:04,280
Speaker 7: so you get abs absolutely nothing in return. But at best,

406
00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:09,000
Speaker 7: if I'm being really generous, a spending freeze for a

407
00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:13,360
Speaker 7: couple of years. That's it. That's about what you get.

408
00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:17,080
Speaker 7: And frankly, you're going to make things worse. And my

409
00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:22,000
Speaker 7: Democratic colleagues know it. That's why they're supporting it. That's

410
00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:23,360
Speaker 7: why they're going around gleeful.

411
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:25,000
Speaker 4: All right, I have a quote that I want to

412
00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:29,400
Speaker 4: read from a senior Senate staff for this is exclusive

413
00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:30,080
Speaker 4: to breaking points.

414
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:31,040
Speaker 3: It's a great quote.

415
00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:35,120
Speaker 4: McCarthy had historic unity, a massive leverage to demand a deal.

416
00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:39,239
Speaker 3: He fucked it up bigly. The bill is horrible. My

417
00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:40,120
Speaker 3: fear was that we.

418
00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:43,800
Speaker 4: Would get a bad deal. This is an objectably horrible one.

419
00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:47,399
Speaker 4: And so not only if you take that expectation right

420
00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:50,239
Speaker 4: like there's not a lot of average it's probably going

421
00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:52,240
Speaker 4: to be a bad deal, but then you take what

422
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:55,680
Speaker 4: chip Roy just said, which is it's basically just all

423
00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:58,320
Speaker 4: you're getting here is a spending freeze, and you try

424
00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:00,320
Speaker 4: it for like a year, and then you have a

425
00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:03,639
Speaker 4: one percent increase the next fiscal year. About when you

426
00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:07,600
Speaker 4: take that and try to sell it as a huge win, man,

427
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 4: are you losing with the people that you really can't

428
00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:12,439
Speaker 4: afford to lose? And this could turn out to be

429
00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:14,600
Speaker 4: sort of the best of both worlds for the Freedom

430
00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:17,199
Speaker 4: Caucus because they get to vote against the bill. They

431
00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:19,960
Speaker 4: get covered for that because there's enough Democrats to vote

432
00:19:19,960 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 4: this and pass it and avoid it a fault. So

433
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:24,480
Speaker 4: they get to vote against it. They get to go

434
00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:27,640
Speaker 4: out and hammer McCarthy. Now where it becomes a potential

435
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:32,040
Speaker 4: l is when if they oust Kevin McCarthy, it's possible

436
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,280
Speaker 4: you have someone much much worse than Kevin McCarthy for

437
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:37,320
Speaker 4: the Freedom Caucus folks in that position because McCarthy listens

438
00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:40,920
Speaker 4: to them and takes them seriously. If ousting McCarthy ends

439
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 4: up with another establishment person taking that seat, you're in

440
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:44,200
Speaker 4: big trouble too.

441
00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,399
Speaker 5: Yeah, there's a few things there.

442
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,040
Speaker 1: So first of all, you know, if I'm putting myself

443
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,280
Speaker 1: in the shoes attempting to put myself in the shoes

444
00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:53,480
Speaker 1: of a Chip Roy or a Dan bishop or.

445
00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:56,000
Speaker 5: Your Senate staffer who thinks they fked up.

446
00:19:56,040 --> 00:20:00,359
Speaker 1: Vaguely, part of this deal is not just we're going

447
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:02,879
Speaker 1: to lift the debt dealing until you know, after if

448
00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:05,720
Speaker 1: Joe Biden gets re elected, so pushes us out past

449
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty four elections.

450
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:07,680
Speaker 5: That's one part.

451
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,240
Speaker 1: There's also provisions in here about how the budget process

452
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:13,840
Speaker 1: will unfold that basically says, if we can't come to

453
00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:17,760
Speaker 1: a deal on the budget appropriations, then we have, you know,

454
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:21,440
Speaker 1: an automatic freeze. And this was the Thomas Massey thing,

455
00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 1: a one penny cut that's actually not that bad of

456
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:27,359
Speaker 1: a deal for Democrats, and it denies Republicans leverage on

457
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 1: the next budget fight going forward. So if I was

458
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,080
Speaker 1: you know, these individuals and had the worldview that they have,

459
00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:37,000
Speaker 1: that probably would be the piece I'd be most upset about,

460
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:38,960
Speaker 1: because it's like, Okay, not only did you kind of

461
00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:42,680
Speaker 1: cave here and not extract everything that Biden left himself

462
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 1: open to being extracted foolishly in my opinion, but he

463
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:47,960
Speaker 1: left himself open to having a lot more extracted. You

464
00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:50,920
Speaker 1: also have made it so that in the normal budgeting

465
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 1: process we have no leverage.

466
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 5: They're not going to.

467
00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:55,040
Speaker 1: Negotiate, We're not going to be able to get any

468
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:57,399
Speaker 1: of our priorities here. And that's the other part of

469
00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 1: this that is just so perplexing is effectively everything they

470
00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:05,360
Speaker 1: got they could have gotten through the normal budgeting process

471
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 1: and it didn't require this whole like theatrical threatening the

472
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:13,119
Speaker 1: entire global financial system to achieve it. So, you know,

473
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,960
Speaker 1: I think that, from my view, is probably part of

474
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,479
Speaker 1: why they are so upset. But my other question, Emily

475
00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,240
Speaker 1: is like, how much of this is theater, because, as

476
00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:24,720
Speaker 1: you said, McCarthy is probably going to be able to

477
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,400
Speaker 1: get together enough of the Caucus combined with the Democrats

478
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:31,199
Speaker 1: to get this thing through. Yes, they're saying they're very upset,

479
00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:33,359
Speaker 1: and they're sending out tweets calling it like a turd

480
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:37,920
Speaker 1: sandwich and whatever, and having press conferences, etc. But even

481
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 1: if they were to call motion fakate, they probably don't

482
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 1: have the numbers to Alice McCarthy. There's no other alternative really,

483
00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 1: and this is a group of people who have made

484
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 1: it their political brand to be, you know, in there

485
00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:53,479
Speaker 1: railing against leadership and at least having the esthetics of

486
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:56,400
Speaker 1: fighting and bucking the Republican establishment.

487
00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:58,200
Speaker 5: So they get to do.

488
00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:00,680
Speaker 1: That they get to like posture, they that their base

489
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 1: wants to see them position themselves, But do they actually

490
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:05,360
Speaker 1: have any teeth here?

491
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:05,680
Speaker 5: Really?

492
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 4: I think, well, the messaging in and of itself is

493
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 4: really important because we've seen this happening happen with John Bayner,

494
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 4: with Paul Ryan, none of whom were necessarily like tea

495
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:14,960
Speaker 4: party darlings.

496
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:16,280
Speaker 3: Of course they never really were.

497
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 4: But when the Freedom Coccus folks and sort of grassroots

498
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:26,200
Speaker 4: activist type Republicans turned against them, it became a movement.

499
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,560
Speaker 4: It became like an anti Bayner, anti Paul Ryan, and

500
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 4: Republicans have been Freedom Coccus folks have been very good

501
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:38,200
Speaker 4: at mobilizing the grassroots and conservative media in particular to

502
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:43,159
Speaker 4: take down somebody who's like a symbol, an avatar of

503
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:46,399
Speaker 4: the swamp the political establishment, which is really interesting to

504
00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,639
Speaker 4: see being used against Kevin McCarthy, who has had a

505
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:53,560
Speaker 4: very close relationship with people like Jim Jordan because he

506
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 4: takes the time. I mean, when I interviewed him back

507
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 4: in September, he was emphatic and very detailed about all

508
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,639
Speaker 4: the time that he's taken to woo Jim Jordan and

509
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:07,120
Speaker 4: to develop really sincere relationships with those guys and how

510
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 4: he sees that not just as the right thing to do,

511
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 4: but as a strategic win.

512
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 3: And that's been true.

513
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:15,399
Speaker 4: So if this is a real break with those folks,

514
00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 4: his ability, I mean, he's made maybe it's sincere, but

515
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:20,520
Speaker 4: he's made a lot of concessions in the way that

516
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 4: he talks about the FBI, the way that he talks

517
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:26,240
Speaker 4: about a lot of different issues now, and for all

518
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 4: of that to go out the window over this debt

519
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 4: ceiling fight, if he's not able to kind of get

520
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 4: them back on his team, give them something, you know,

521
00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 4: maybe there's something that he can do after the debt

522
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 4: ceiling fight to placate them, to appeal, appease them, to

523
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 4: appeal to them to avoid a motion of vkate. But

524
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 4: I think once that sort of genie's out of the

525
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:50,439
Speaker 4: bottle and you have signaled to the Republican base that

526
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 4: Kevin McCarthy is a swamp creature.

527
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know how you put that back in

528
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:55,399
Speaker 3: the bottle.

529
00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:58,679
Speaker 1: I think that's well said, because if he becomes a

530
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 1: villain to the base, then whether the sentiment against him

531
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 1: is genuine or not genuine among this handful of Republican

532
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 1: House members, it becomes to their individual political benefit to

533
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 1: try to oust him, to try to fight with him,

534
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 1: to try to buck him at every turn, and make

535
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 1: his life miserable, whether they're able to oust him a

536
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:23,000
Speaker 1: speaker or not. As another question, So when you have

537
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 1: that political incentive in place, and you have a lot

538
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:29,640
Speaker 1: of ambitious people who are elective members of Congress, someone

539
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:33,160
Speaker 1: is going to seize the opportunity to be his primary

540
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,959
Speaker 1: antagonist if he comes to be seen as this just

541
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 1: like thoroughly swamp like villain to the Republican base.

542
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 4: Right, your average Republican voter doesn't give a damn about

543
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:47,320
Speaker 4: this procedural specifics and the detailed breakdown of negotiations on

544
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,920
Speaker 4: Capitol Hill. Yeah, because first of all, that stuff is

545
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 4: extremely hard to understand, even if you cover it and

546
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 4: you follow it. And secondly, it's your team or my team, right,

547
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 4: and it gets broken down in that really easy way.

548
00:24:57,960 --> 00:24:59,439
Speaker 4: And the last thing I want to say before we

549
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:01,880
Speaker 4: move on is just a comment that I heard from

550
00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 4: somebody on the left, baffled by the hills Republicans chose

551
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 4: to die on in this fight, saying why not go

552
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 4: after the Pentagon? Why not go after X Y and

553
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,159
Speaker 4: z and Chris Are you're talking about the Pentagon, Like

554
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 4: some of that stuff is ripe.

555
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:18,320
Speaker 3: It would have been such a.

556
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 4: Target rich environment to make Biden defend his surveillance programs

557
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 4: at the Pentagon, defend some of the obviously ridiculous items

558
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 4: in his budget or federal spending that anyone can go

559
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 4: to the federal budget left or right and look at

560
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 4: some of the spending agenda and be like, what the

561
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 4: hell is this?

562
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:37,640
Speaker 3: Like this is insane.

563
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 4: Make Biden defend that stuff, like the excessive like what

564
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 4: people would call like the excesses of woke ideology that's

565
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 4: become baked into the federal budget.

566
00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 3: Why are they not fighting over that stuff? Why are

567
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 3: they not fighting over.

568
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 4: These new things that Ken Clippenstein reports on every week

569
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:57,960
Speaker 4: that are popping up at the Pentagon that are surveilling

570
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 4: average Americans and said they're increased the defense budget. So

571
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:05,159
Speaker 4: it's just been a very strange, not strange for how

572
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 4: the Republican Party operates, but post Trump, to see the

573
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:11,800
Speaker 4: Republican Party dying on the hill of work requirements that's

574
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 4: and freezes to the federal budget without talking about very

575
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 4: specific things increasing defense spending is just strange.

576
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, and last question for you, Emily is Trump has

577
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 1: been notably quiet about this deal and cyberth theorized, and

578
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:28,680
Speaker 1: I think this is correct.

579
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 5: Kevin McCarthy probably called him and begged him to.

580
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,639
Speaker 1: Keep stuff because a Trump's not an idiot. He can

581
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 1: see where the winds are blowing. He can see that

582
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 1: if you wanted to be on the right side of

583
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 1: the Republican base, like DeSantis and Pence and the other

584
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 1: in vivek Ramswami and the others who have come out

585
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 1: against it who are running for president, they're on the

586
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:46,600
Speaker 1: correct side of this issue in terms of like the

587
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 1: vibes and the sentiment of the base. So notable that

588
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 1: he has stayed quiet, and clearly he and Kevin McCarthy

589
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 1: are allies. Mike Kevin, you know, and he helped Kevin

590
00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 1: McCarthy get across the line in terms of his speakracy.

591
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 5: How much does it matter.

592
00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:05,479
Speaker 1: That McCarthy has the sort of tacit backing of Trump.

593
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 4: That's a great question, because Trump can make life hard

594
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 4: for basically anyone, although I think in a primary his

595
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,239
Speaker 4: power to do that is going to wane because if

596
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 4: you're splitting off, you know, the kind of maga folks

597
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:21,040
Speaker 4: into DeSantis and Trump. I think Trump doesn't lose his

598
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 4: thirty percent grip on the Republican your average Republican primary base.

599
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 3: He's got thirty percent grip.

600
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 4: If he can make that, if he can make life

601
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:31,400
Speaker 4: difficult for Kevin McCarthy with that thirty percent.

602
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 3: That's definitely meaningful.

603
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 4: On top of Zager's theory, something you said that he

604
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 4: sort of senses where the wind is blowing.

605
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 3: Trump wants to be on the side of the winner.

606
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 4: So he's not necessarily ideologically going to say this is

607
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 4: right or wrong.

608
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 5: Oh, he doesn't care about the details.

609
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 4: No, He's waiting in the wings and he's going to

610
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 4: see where the winds blow.

611
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:53,040
Speaker 3: And I think it's up in the air.

612
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 4: It's been up in the air for the last week

613
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 4: or so as Republicans like the Freedom CROC has felt

614
00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 4: really good about their relationship with Kevin McCarthy until.

615
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:01,880
Speaker 3: Like a week ago. Oh really yeah, it was like.

616
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 4: They felt like they were things were moving along well.

617
00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 4: And then he settled on this deal with Biden over

618
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 4: the weekend, and really, like that is really really bad

619
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 4: and really quick.

620
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 3: And so I think Trump was waiting in the wings

621
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:14,520
Speaker 3: seeing what was going.

622
00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 4: To be the winning side of this argument, and I

623
00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 4: think when that becomes clear to him, he'll jump in

624
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 4: and say something.

625
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 1: So it's your assessment that the anger and the upset

626
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 1: that is being portrayed coming from the Freedom Caucus is genuine,

627
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 1: that they feel they actually feel betrayed here.

628
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:30,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's a little both.

629
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 4: I think it's there's a broad, genuine upset over being

630
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 4: left behind by Kevin McCarthy, But then there's a layer

631
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 4: of you know, that that becomes an opportunity. So feeling

632
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:45,640
Speaker 4: genuinely sold out by McCarthy can then become an opportunity

633
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 4: for some a negotiating theater and be you know, broader

634
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 4: like political theater.

635
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 1: So they could play up their genuine emotions for a receptive.

636
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 5: And willing audience.

637
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:57,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, Well, today's going to be a big

638
00:28:57,760 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 1: day for the debt ceiling, so we'll keep an eye

639
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 1: on it. Because this supposed to pass through the House.

640
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 1: We will see what happens. It will be very interesting

641
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 1: not only whether or not it passes, but what the

642
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 1: numbers are in terms of the future for McCarthy.

643
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 5: So we'll keep an eye on that.

644
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 1: In the meantime, we had some significant updates with regards

645
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 1: to our relationship with China.

646
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,040
Speaker 5: Number of different pieces here, so the very latest, let's

647
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 5: put this up on the screen.

648
00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 1: You had a Chinese J sixteen jet fighter which flew

649
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 1: directly in front of an American surveillance plane that was

650
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 1: flying an international airspace over the South China Sea last Friday.

651
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 1: That forced the US Air Force plane to fly through

652
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 1: the fighters wake turbulence and caused the US aircraft to shake.

653
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 1: The Pentagons felt so strongly about the aggressive nature of

654
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 1: this incident that they actually released the video, which we have.

655
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:46,760
Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and take a look at this. I'll

656
00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:49,840
Speaker 1: just do my best to narrate. You see the jet,

657
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,959
Speaker 1: you see it very close to the American jet. It

658
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 1: comes through. You can see since the cameras in the

659
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:57,520
Speaker 1: cockpit of the American jet, you can see the way

660
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 1: that it is shaking as it goes through the fighter's

661
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 1: wake turbulence.

662
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 5: So that is the incident. That is a question.

663
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 1: This comes at a particularly fraught time in US Chinese relations.

664
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,480
Speaker 1: Things have been going sideways ever since that whole like

665
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:17,239
Speaker 1: spy balloon situation. So here's the latest on that. Got

666
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:18,680
Speaker 1: and put this up on the screen from the wall

667
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 1: Street Journal. They report that China rebuffed the Pentagon chief

668
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:26,240
Speaker 1: blunting push for reproachment. US had proposed a meeting. China

669
00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 1: accused the US of insincerity. Here are the details here.

670
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 1: They say they rebuff that US request for a meeting

671
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:34,959
Speaker 1: between their two defense chiefs on the sidelines of an

672
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 1: annual security form in Singapore this coming weekend, showing the

673
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 1: limits of that tentative reproachment. The decision by China formally

674
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,360
Speaker 1: to inform the Pentagon shuts the door for now on

675
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 1: a meeting between those two defense secretaries, which the US

676
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 1: had proposed. They also said China's dismissal of the proposal

677
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 1: was termed in unusually blunt, in an unusually blunt way.

678
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 1: These like diplomats have you know, this like the way

679
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 1: we communicate these things, and this is the fashion we

680
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 1: communicate and they felt that this broke typical decorum apparently

681
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 1: and was unusually blunt. And this was an interesting comment

682
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 1: here from a think tank official about their assumption of

683
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:15,920
Speaker 1: how the Chinese were viewing things.

684
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 5: They said, the Chinese believe they.

685
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 1: Have the most leverage when dealing with officials who handle

686
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 1: economic issues, so they are prioritizing those engagements over ones

687
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 1: involving national security. I also pulled for US the South

688
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 1: China Morning Post to give the sort of Chinese version

689
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 1: of these events and why they rebuffed this meeting.

690
00:31:34,120 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 5: They said, put this up on the screen.

691
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 1: China says the US must correct its mistaken actions before

692
00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 1: top defense chiefs can meet. This is part of their

693
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 1: Foreign Ministry spokeswoman. They say Washington should earnestly respect the sovereignty, security,

694
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 1: and interests of China and immediately correct its mistaken actions

695
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,960
Speaker 1: to show its sincerity to talk. And they pointed emily

696
00:31:56,040 --> 00:32:00,160
Speaker 1: in particular to the fact that their defense chief is

697
00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 1: actually under US sanctions, which the US doesn't have any

698
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 1: intention of lifting.

699
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:05,880
Speaker 5: But I also think that's kind.

700
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 1: Of an excuse for them to, you know, have some

701
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 1: justification for why they didn't want this meeting to go forward.

702
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:12,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know the I think it's the journal

703
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 4: that notes that they still haven't rescheduled that Beijing trip

704
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 4: that Blincoln was supposed to take during that initial spy

705
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 4: balloon upheaval that was supposed to coincide with a trip

706
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 4: by our Secretary of State to Beijing, right, And they said,

707
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 4: you know, we're going to table this and reschedule it,

708
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 4: and that was our move. The United States made that

709
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 4: decision because the Biden administration was taking so much flak

710
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 4: for not shooting down this by balloon. And they still

711
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 4: haven't rescheduled it and it's months later. And it's interesting

712
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 4: also the spy balloon started drifting over the United States

713
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:50,360
Speaker 4: in another situation where there was a planned meeting. That's

714
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 4: also obviously echoed by what just happened this week. And yeah,

715
00:32:55,120 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 4: I think worth noting too.

716
00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's a real shame that that meeting

717
00:32:58,040 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 1: didn't go through. I think it's a real shame that

718
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 1: they pulled the plug on this meeting as well. And

719
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 1: within the Biden administration, the reporting is that you do

720
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 1: have sort of dueling views of how to approach the

721
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 1: relationship with China. Obviously, some of Biden's signature initiatives have

722
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 1: been designed to try to claw back some productive capacity here,

723
00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 1: especially with regard to semiconductor chips, and so they've taken

724
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 1: that approach from an economic perspective, and you have certain

725
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 1: folks within the administration, those who are more focused on

726
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 1: the economy or more focused on climate, who say, listen,

727
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 1: we're going to tackle these challenges especially around the climate crisis.

728
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 1: We're going to have to work with China, and so

729
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 1: we need to have these open lines of communication. You

730
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 1: also have you know, Pentagon and military press who just

731
00:33:41,040 --> 00:33:43,560
Speaker 1: feel like, all right, in order to avoid any real,

732
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 1: you know, dire mishaps or under misunderstandings, we need to

733
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 1: make sure that we're in communication. But you also have

734
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:51,880
Speaker 1: thinking within the Biden White House that you know, wants

735
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 1: to take a more sort of hawkish and aggressive and

736
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 1: adversarial relationship with China. And so you see them kind

737
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 1: of oscillating between these two approaches. I think back and forth,

738
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 1: and you know, China now at this point, I guess

739
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 1: over this by balloon situation and just wanting to assert

740
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:10,640
Speaker 1: themselves here sort of thumbing their noses at the US.

741
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 4: That's so interesting about the internal dynamics of the Biden

742
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:17,400
Speaker 4: administration because you know, you see it in just a

743
00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 4: very i.

744
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:20,400
Speaker 3: Think confused policy towards China.

745
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:24,800
Speaker 4: And to your point, if that's reflective of internal debate

746
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,960
Speaker 4: about what the right course of action is, I mean,

747
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:31,319
Speaker 4: maybe this puts the Biden administration, maybe this forces their hand,

748
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:33,240
Speaker 4: Maybe it puts them in a position where the people

749
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:36,280
Speaker 4: internally who are fighting to take a more hawkish stance

750
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 4: on China inevitably are winning out.

751
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:40,959
Speaker 3: Because it definitely break it's their hand.

752
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, when you hit that brick wall and diplomatic relations

753
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 4: are strained to the point where you can't have these

754
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 4: meetings anymore, then that's when you start to get to

755
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 4: a I mean, I would say a dangerous place. And

756
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 4: I think there's obviously good reasons to have the hawkish

757
00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 4: instincts towards China, especially when you look at you know

758
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:02,359
Speaker 4: exactly what the video c that you just showed. Yeah,

759
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 4: it's understandable, but at the same time, that puts US

760
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 4: closer and closer to a.

761
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,800
Speaker 1: Hot war, Yeah, which you know would be a disaster

762
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 1: for us, for them, for a lot of people around

763
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 1: the world. And China has long taken this approach. That's

764
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 1: why I found that comment so interesting about how they're

765
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 1: most interested in dealing with officials who handle economic issues.

766
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:24,759
Speaker 1: I mean, they really sort of understand our society and

767
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:27,399
Speaker 1: how much it is driven by like capitalism and by

768
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 1: capital and so this was noteworthy. Elon musk Is actually

769
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:34,279
Speaker 1: just visited China. Go ahead and put this up on

770
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 1: the screen, and we have some notes here from the

771
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 1: Financial times about that meaning, China calls for stable ties

772
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 1: with the US.

773
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:41,160
Speaker 5: And meeting with Elon Musk.

774
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 1: Billionaire's audience with the Foreign Minster highlights complex relationship with Beijing.

775
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 1: So the fact that this meaning is coming at this time,

776
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 1: I think it's also noteworthy and fits with this idea

777
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 1: of you know, they feel like the way they can

778
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 1: pull our strings is through economics, and it's not just

779
00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:00,160
Speaker 1: us too. I mean, this is why they're with their

780
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:03,080
Speaker 1: initiatives in Africa, you know, lending a lot of money

781
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 1: into build out ports and roads and bridges and fund

782
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,279
Speaker 1: their infrastructure. Also, by the way, loading them up with

783
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 1: debt as their own sort of version of imperialism. So

784
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 1: they're very skilled and adept at using their own economic

785
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 1: power and might as a sort of power play, both

786
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 1: with US and with some of our leading entrepreneurs, but

787
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 1: also with countries around the world. Here are some of

788
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:27,719
Speaker 1: the details from that meeting. In addition to calling for

789
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:31,440
Speaker 1: that stable and constructive ties, in a statement, the Chinese

790
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:34,840
Speaker 1: Foreign Ministry quoted Musk as comparing US trying to interest

791
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 1: to conjoin twins, saying Tesla opposed decoupling of the world's

792
00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 1: two biggest economies. They faced some internal concern about Musk's

793
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 1: relationship and Tesla's penetration within their market because they saw,

794
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 1: in particular the way that SpaceX satellites using Starlink were

795
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:57,439
Speaker 1: utilized in the Ukraine War. And so in the same way,

796
00:36:57,480 --> 00:36:59,840
Speaker 1: like we're having this whole conversation here about TikTok and

797
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 1: a is China would like Chinese are doing with our.

798
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 5: Data and all this stuff.

799
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:07,440
Speaker 1: They're worried that his satellites could be used to spy

800
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 1: on Chinese citizens, and so there are defense hawks within

801
00:37:10,760 --> 00:37:14,320
Speaker 1: China who are not comfortable with, you know, the level

802
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,319
Speaker 1: of interaction and the level of market penetration that Musk

803
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 1: has through through Tesla. But this was a reaffirmation that

804
00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:24,800
Speaker 1: at the highest levels the government embraces you know, Musk

805
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 1: and Tesla and uh has it has also been really

806
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 1: useful for them in terms of shifting their economy towards

807
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:34,240
Speaker 1: electric vehicles, which has been phenomenally successful.

808
00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 5: By all accounts.

809
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:36,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I'm sure the audience will be shocked to

810
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:40,600
Speaker 4: guess who else is in China this week, None other

811
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:44,839
Speaker 4: than of course, our real Treasury Secretary Jamie Diamond. We've

812
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:46,640
Speaker 4: seen over the course of the last six or so

813
00:37:46,760 --> 00:37:50,400
Speaker 4: months all of the real president, I would say, the President,

814
00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 4: Jamie Diamond and our real Secretary of State Elon Musk

815
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:55,239
Speaker 4: together and China at the same time. No, I think

816
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 4: we've seen, you know, business leaders. We've definitely seen business

817
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 4: leaders flocking back to China post pandam This is both

818
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:03,759
Speaker 4: I believe it's Elon Musk and Diamond's first trip to

819
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 4: China post pandemic. China, by the way, facing another wave

820
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 4: of an outbreak and not locking down, which is another

821
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:15,880
Speaker 4: kind of interesting piece of context, and the broader geopolitical conversation.

822
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:19,760
Speaker 4: So it goes to show exactly what you said, Crystal,

823
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 4: that there's.

824
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:24,280
Speaker 3: Something very telling, accurate.

825
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 4: And maybe a little bit sad about China's recognition that

826
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 4: dealing with economic people and people in positions of economic

827
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 4: power in the United States and economic diplomacy with the

828
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,680
Speaker 4: United States is probably their best bet to make inroads.

829
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:38,919
Speaker 1: And they're like, you know, who really holds the keys

830
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 1: to the kingdom in your country?

831
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 5: Well, they're not wrong.

832
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 3: I learned that from WTO and everything after that.

833
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 4: And it's still you know, there's still people who refuse

834
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:48,560
Speaker 4: to learn the lessons. Well, they know the lessons, They've

835
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:51,480
Speaker 4: just benefited from everyone else's misery.

836
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, at the same time, you know, so Musk is

837
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 1: tying in the muskpiece. He had commented previously about the

838
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 1: Chinese space program, saying that it was far more advanced

839
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:02,279
Speaker 1: than a lot of people realized. Put this last piece

840
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:04,920
Speaker 1: up on the screen, and we just got an announcement

841
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 1: China launching a.

842
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:07,720
Speaker 5: New crew for Space station.

843
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 1: They are planning to land people on the Moon by

844
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:14,400
Speaker 1: the end of this decade. You know, this is classic

845
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:20,399
Speaker 1: like sort of national projection of power and prestige. So

846
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:23,839
Speaker 1: China officially, you know, really going into the space game,

847
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:26,520
Speaker 1: and there's a lot of competition. You know, we're used

848
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:29,800
Speaker 1: to talking about like the economic competition between the US

849
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 1: and China and potential military competition between US and China.

850
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:37,520
Speaker 1: Part of that military projection of power is increasingly in space.

851
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 1: So this is also kind of a bold statement to

852
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 1: the world and to us in particular about their ambitions.

853
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:43,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a great point.

854
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 4: And what we're seeing happen in space is it's really

855
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 4: reminiscent of the race during the Cold War. You know,

856
00:39:51,120 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 4: it's obviously China has more than echoes. Yeah, Yeah, it's

857
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 4: actually kind of eerie of how much the not just space,

858
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:01,839
Speaker 4: I mean space in particular is a very on the

859
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 4: nose echo. But there are obviously so many other things

860
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,240
Speaker 4: that happened between the United States and China, the West

861
00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 4: and China in general that feel just ripped from the

862
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 4: fifties sixties. And we'll see if anyone has taken to

863
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 4: heart the lessons of those very painful and deadly years.

864
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:21,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, indeed, all right.

865
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:24,239
Speaker 1: At the same time, back here at home, a lot

866
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 1: going on. Wisconsin Republicans really in a.

867
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:29,360
Speaker 5: State of angst. Emily, they sure are, They're really in

868
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 5: their feelings right now.

869
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 4: Yes, they're so flag this long Politico magazine reported piece

870
00:40:34,680 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 4: from Wisconsin. We can go ahead and see one up

871
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:40,640
Speaker 4: on the screen. The headline from Politico is quote numbers,

872
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:44,399
Speaker 4: nobody has ever seen how the JP lost Wisconsin. Now,

873
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 4: it's a very interesting glance into the dynamics in a

874
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 4: state where a lot of people were surprised to see

875
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 4: the liberal Supreme Court justice win that election. Not too

876
00:40:55,239 --> 00:41:00,799
Speaker 4: long ago, when Wisconsin Republicans and the meat really took

877
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:05,959
Speaker 4: this narrative from Wisconsin, Republicans were riding high for more

878
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 4: than a decade after Act ten in twenty eleven, the

879
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:13,360
Speaker 4: election of Scott Walker in twenty ten, twenty eleven, you

880
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 4: have Act ten, the recall that was one, and then

881
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 4: this really this presage the Trump era in general. You

882
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 4: had people like Sean Duffy winning Wisconsin seventh district, which

883
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 4: had been David Obie's district.

884
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 3: For forty years.

885
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 4: You had a Democrat in that district for forty years,

886
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 4: super rural, you had you know, paper mills that were

887
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 4: shut down because of all bad trade deals and all

888
00:41:36,080 --> 00:41:39,760
Speaker 4: of that stuff, problems with opioids, drugs, addiction.

889
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 3: All of that.

890
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 4: And in twenty ten that district flip Republican, so six

891
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 4: years before Donald Trump. So Wisconsin Republicans had been making

892
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 4: those kinds of gains for years, and then it culminated

893
00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:54,120
Speaker 4: in Trump's narrow victory in the state of Wisconsin and

894
00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:57,719
Speaker 4: Hillary Clinton sort of famously not going to Wisconsin, and

895
00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 4: now you have a really difficul situation for Wisconsin Republicans.

896
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:05,719
Speaker 4: Ron Johnson barely eked out a win ye over someone a.

897
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:08,280
Speaker 4: Republicans saw it as eminently beatable.

898
00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:11,479
Speaker 1: Well, and Democrats kind of gave up on that race.

899
00:42:11,800 --> 00:42:14,279
Speaker 1: And if they hadn't, it might have actually gone in

900
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:16,880
Speaker 1: the other direction because they stopped focusing on it.

901
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:18,440
Speaker 5: They thought it was a lost cause.

902
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 1: And then Ron Johnson barely squeaked through a victory.

903
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 4: Right, And so Politico is looking at how you have Potasswitz,

904
00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:28,520
Speaker 4: the liberal Supreme Court justice, how does she win? And

905
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:31,000
Speaker 4: Politico is coming down the side and saying, you know,

906
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 4: actually quoting state democrats. This is from the Democratic Party

907
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 4: chairman in Wisconsin.

908
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 3: He said.

909
00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:38,600
Speaker 4: He referred to an internal Democratic pool conducted after the

910
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 4: election shared with me later by a Democratic operative in

911
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:44,239
Speaker 4: the state, that showed abortion, while slightly more resident and

912
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:47,720
Speaker 4: issue for voters in the Democratic leaning media markets around Madison, Milwaukee,

913
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 4: and Claire Lacrosse, was the main vote driver for Potassa

914
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 4: Wits in every market in the state. It was an

915
00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:57,840
Speaker 4: issue that wasn't just working for Democrats in big cities,

916
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:01,720
Speaker 4: but in rural areas too. That is really important because

917
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:05,399
Speaker 4: for Wisconsin Democrats, you need to have huge turnout in

918
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 4: Milwaukee Madison basically because that's where the population Wisconsin is.

919
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:10,919
Speaker 4: The rest of the state is pretty scattered in rural

920
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:14,320
Speaker 4: But if you can also bring rural voters into that coalition,

921
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 4: you're taking away the Republican voters who were brought to

922
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:18,840
Speaker 4: the party.

923
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:21,799
Speaker 3: In some cases, this is lifetime union Democrats. People have

924
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 3: voted for David Obie for forty years.

925
00:43:23,760 --> 00:43:26,960
Speaker 4: If you can't get them, maybe they actually vote them,

926
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:29,680
Speaker 4: but maybe they just don't vote. If you can't get them,

927
00:43:29,760 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 4: you're in big trouble.

928
00:43:30,520 --> 00:43:31,759
Speaker 1: Well, and all you have to do is en into

929
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:34,400
Speaker 1: the margins. You know, you don't have to win rural

930
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 1: counties if you're Democrats and you're you know, driving up

931
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:39,399
Speaker 1: the numbers in the suburbs and you're pulling in huge

932
00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:41,840
Speaker 1: numbers in the cities. If you just eat into the

933
00:43:41,840 --> 00:43:44,839
Speaker 1: Republican margin a little bit in rural America, then you're

934
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:47,000
Speaker 1: really in business here. And I did think that was

935
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:48,960
Speaker 1: the most interesting piece. There were two parts of this

936
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 1: article that I found most interesting. First of all, Democrats

937
00:43:52,160 --> 00:43:55,600
Speaker 1: have really bet on this like new growing demographic. That's

938
00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:57,759
Speaker 1: why they've focused, you know, they've sort of given up

939
00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 1: on Iowa. Instead, they're like, we're going to win Georgia

940
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:01,799
Speaker 1: and we're going to win Arizona. We're going to go

941
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:04,319
Speaker 1: places that are really diverse and that have a large

942
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:07,880
Speaker 1: college educated population because that's where we're having our easiest

943
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:09,880
Speaker 1: time sort of growing our base.

944
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:11,719
Speaker 5: Wisconsin is a different model.

945
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:14,359
Speaker 1: Though, and this was one of the places that you know,

946
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:16,759
Speaker 1: some of the sort of lazy assumptions of oh, well,

947
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:18,319
Speaker 1: if things are headed in this direction, they're going to

948
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:22,080
Speaker 1: keep heading in this direction. Was first it's Wisconsin and Michigan,

949
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 1: and then it's going to be Minnesota, and you're going

950
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:27,880
Speaker 1: to all these blue wall like traditional Midwestern industrial states,

951
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 1: they're all going to become solidly Republican.

952
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:32,640
Speaker 5: That was kind of the assumption because.

953
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:36,120
Speaker 1: You have a population that has a lower percentage, that's

954
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 1: college educated, more white, and so it looked like it

955
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 1: was a place that would be right for the picking

956
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:45,239
Speaker 1: for Republicans, not just in twenty sixteen, but it would

957
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:48,279
Speaker 1: kind of continue to trend in that direction. And it

958
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:51,600
Speaker 1: looks like, you know, first of all, that didn't turn

959
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 1: out to be true. You know, Biden ends up winning

960
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:56,960
Speaker 1: Wisconsin in twenty twenty, even before Roe versus Weight is overturned.

961
00:44:57,400 --> 00:45:00,840
Speaker 1: But with abortion, you've actually significantly push things back in

962
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:03,560
Speaker 1: the other direction. And so what was shocking about the

963
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:06,440
Speaker 1: win of that liberal Supreme Court justice was not just

964
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 1: that she won in Wisconsin's closely divided states so that's

965
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:13,839
Speaker 1: not crazy, is that she won by eleven points and

966
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 1: the issue of abortion. It's not like they can just

967
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:19,640
Speaker 1: sort of ride it out and hope this thing goes away.

968
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:23,880
Speaker 1: It's continued to show real salience as more horror stories

969
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:26,640
Speaker 1: comes down, as more laws are passed across the country,

970
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 1: as it's a hot topic of debate within Republican presidential

971
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:32,359
Speaker 1: politics about are we going to do a national abortion ban?

972
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:34,080
Speaker 5: And I thought it was really.

973
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 1: Interesting because there was actually a polling memo that put

974
00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:40,320
Speaker 1: this up on the screen that somebody accidentally left behind

975
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:43,800
Speaker 1: from a Republican group. They say left behind polling memos

976
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 1: shows abortion hurting outlook for the GOP.

977
00:45:45,960 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 4: At the Greenbrier. Someone put this in the trash at

978
00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 4: the Greenbrier.

979
00:45:49,680 --> 00:45:52,919
Speaker 1: Which is this West Virginia resort that Republicans. It's owned

980
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 1: by Jim Justice, by the way, who is currently governor

981
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 1: and gonna run for Senate against Joe Mansion.

982
00:45:59,239 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 3: By the way.

983
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:01,439
Speaker 1: I saw that has them out by like twenty points

984
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:03,239
Speaker 1: on mansions, So we can talk about that another time.

985
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:04,680
Speaker 3: It's swanky, it's very.

986
00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:07,400
Speaker 1: Swing, it's very dice, it's beautiful there. So anyway, they

987
00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:09,759
Speaker 1: left it in the trash there, and the numbers here are

988
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:12,320
Speaker 1: quite dire. They say there's been a six point swing

989
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 1: in just the last year on the generic Senate ballot

990
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 1: from R plus three to D plus three. This movement

991
00:46:18,560 --> 00:46:24,000
Speaker 1: is led overwhelmingly by independent and new voters that identify abortion.

992
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:25,480
Speaker 5: As one of their top issues.

993
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:28,439
Speaker 1: So according to a national issue study by Coefficient, which

994
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:32,000
Speaker 1: was in the news recently, so they found similar findings

995
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:36,239
Speaker 1: on the House side ten point swing in just the

996
00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 1: last year on the generic House ballot, where previously Republicans

997
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:43,919
Speaker 1: were winning on the generic ballot by six points, now

998
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 1: Democrats winning by four points.

999
00:46:46,840 --> 00:46:48,919
Speaker 5: And they say reproductive freedom is the.

1000
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:52,319
Speaker 1: Number one issue among those that did not vote in

1001
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:56,320
Speaker 1: twenty twenty. So this has been an incredibly activating issue

1002
00:46:56,640 --> 00:47:00,200
Speaker 1: on Wisconsin. On election day with that liberal Supreme Court

1003
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 1: justice winning, there were all these sorts of anecdotal reports

1004
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 1: about how strong the voting had been in college like

1005
00:47:05,800 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 1: university towns there, and after the fact we've gotten the

1006
00:47:08,719 --> 00:47:10,920
Speaker 1: numbers that that has in fact been the case. You know,

1007
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 1: young people very like classically unreliable in terms of their

1008
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:16,719
Speaker 1: voting behavior. But that's what they're finding is not just

1009
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 1: in the college towns, but across the state and in

1010
00:47:19,239 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 1: all the states where this issue is super relevant.

1011
00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:22,799
Speaker 5: New voters are turning out.

1012
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:26,279
Speaker 1: It's really motivating independent voters, and it is a significant

1013
00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:27,400
Speaker 1: problem for Republicans.

1014
00:47:27,440 --> 00:47:28,840
Speaker 3: It's a huge problem for Republicans.

1015
00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:32,760
Speaker 4: And I've actually been skeptical of the theory that abortion

1016
00:47:33,680 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 4: was what killed certain candidacies in the last election, but

1017
00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 4: this is the more this evidence emerges, I mean, you

1018
00:47:41,640 --> 00:47:43,160
Speaker 4: have to keep an open mind with this stuff. And

1019
00:47:43,200 --> 00:47:48,280
Speaker 4: I think this evidence, this polling evidence, has really really

1020
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:50,440
Speaker 4: shifted the weight of the argument to the fact that

1021
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:54,560
Speaker 4: abortion is genuinely dragging down Republicans. If even Republican polsters

1022
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:58,520
Speaker 4: are finding this these like six point.

1023
00:47:58,280 --> 00:47:59,880
Speaker 3: Swings, I mean, that's significance.

1024
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:02,839
Speaker 4: And I think that's not to say that I think

1025
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,520
Speaker 4: it's necessarily a losing issue for Republicans.

1026
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:07,840
Speaker 3: I think there's the old Ronald Reagan mantra.

1027
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:11,239
Speaker 4: He talks about painting with bold colors, not pale pastels,

1028
00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:14,120
Speaker 4: which is really like, that's how he ends up winning

1029
00:48:14,160 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 4: the youth vote in huge numbers. And there are a

1030
00:48:16,719 --> 00:48:19,680
Speaker 4: lot of people who didn't agree with everything that Ronald

1031
00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 4: Reagan said. He was seen as this like movement conservative

1032
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 4: activist type Republican in idiologue for sure, and yet people.

1033
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 3: Voted for him.

1034
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 4: So I think there's a way for Republicans to talk

1035
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:32,960
Speaker 4: about abortion more honestly. That may drag them downe in

1036
00:48:33,000 --> 00:48:35,319
Speaker 4: certain areas, but in other areas maybe helpful. If you

1037
00:48:35,360 --> 00:48:37,520
Speaker 4: have a like, a certain kind of candidate. You know,

1038
00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:40,759
Speaker 4: Ron de Santis puts up big numbers in Florida, you know,

1039
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 4: with people who haven't always voted Republican, And I think

1040
00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:45,959
Speaker 4: partially that's because he doesn't shy away from the issue,

1041
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 4: he doesn't try to hide the issue and like be

1042
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:49,239
Speaker 4: apologetic about his.

1043
00:48:49,200 --> 00:48:50,040
Speaker 3: Beliefs on abortion.

1044
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:53,320
Speaker 4: So if I were a like consultant for Republicans, I

1045
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:54,359
Speaker 4: would say, you just need to.

1046
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:55,560
Speaker 3: Be honest about what you think.

1047
00:48:56,040 --> 00:49:01,760
Speaker 4: That said, it is absolutely true that if you can't match,

1048
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:05,759
Speaker 4: if you can't put up higher numbers with the as

1049
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:08,400
Speaker 4: opposed to the ones the new voters coming in, if

1050
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:10,759
Speaker 4: you can't motivate, for instance, in Wisconsin, we were all

1051
00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:13,600
Speaker 4: sitting here on election night not too long ago, looking

1052
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:16,720
Speaker 4: at the numbers in Wisconsin, and we were seeing, for instance,

1053
00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:19,920
Speaker 4: in what's called the Wow Counties, Waukesha azaki in Washington

1054
00:49:20,520 --> 00:49:24,200
Speaker 4: always like a bastion of like hard Republican.

1055
00:49:23,719 --> 00:49:26,360
Speaker 5: Voting suburban areas, right, suburban Milwaukee.

1056
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:31,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely, and the numbers were obviously Republicans were winning

1057
00:49:31,120 --> 00:49:33,439
Speaker 4: those areas, but the numbers were down, the margins were down,

1058
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:37,320
Speaker 4: and that's because millennials are now moving to the suburbs

1059
00:49:37,400 --> 00:49:39,800
Speaker 4: and they're sure as hell not voting Republican in the

1060
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:41,920
Speaker 4: same numbers as other people were.

1061
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:44,120
Speaker 3: So it's a it's a real, real problem.

1062
00:49:44,120 --> 00:49:47,040
Speaker 1: But you know, even with the DeSantis example, so before

1063
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:49,200
Speaker 1: he gets re elected, he's signed what it was either

1064
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:52,000
Speaker 1: a twelve or fifteen week abortion ban into law, and

1065
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:54,560
Speaker 1: he felt pretty comfy with that. The six week abortion

1066
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:56,920
Speaker 1: ban that they just passed through, he clearly felt like

1067
00:49:56,920 --> 00:49:59,480
Speaker 1: politically you had to do it. Passed it like on

1068
00:49:59,520 --> 00:50:03,040
Speaker 1: a Friday, did the press conference like literally at midnight.

1069
00:50:03,080 --> 00:50:04,960
Speaker 1: It was like, let's not talk about this, let's just

1070
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:05,800
Speaker 1: try to move forward.

1071
00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:07,879
Speaker 5: And I think that's that illustrates the.

1072
00:50:07,880 --> 00:50:11,439
Speaker 1: Problem that Republicans have right now is they have won

1073
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:14,799
Speaker 1: on this issue in the past when they've successfully First

1074
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:16,920
Speaker 1: of all, their base was super motivated to get Supreme

1075
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:19,640
Speaker 1: Court justice on an overturn Row versus wad Okay.

1076
00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:22,080
Speaker 5: Well, that energizing factor is now gone for them.

1077
00:50:22,760 --> 00:50:26,560
Speaker 1: And the other thing that they did which was successful

1078
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:28,840
Speaker 1: for them is they would paint the Democrats as the extremists,

1079
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:32,160
Speaker 1: you know, partial birth abortion and you know the latest

1080
00:50:32,160 --> 00:50:34,840
Speaker 1: what's the one the aft that they claim that like

1081
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:36,960
Speaker 1: after the babies delivered that Democrats wanted.

1082
00:50:37,160 --> 00:50:38,800
Speaker 5: They just claim Democrats are like really.

1083
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 1: Extreme on the issue, and they put the focus there

1084
00:50:41,040 --> 00:50:44,720
Speaker 1: on the most sort of fringe examples that Democrats will support.

1085
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 5: Very effective politically.

1086
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:49,799
Speaker 1: Well now given the way that the landscape has changed,

1087
00:50:50,440 --> 00:50:52,920
Speaker 1: necessarily because Roe versus WAD was already kind of the

1088
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:56,120
Speaker 1: compromise position, So the compromise position has gone, so now

1089
00:50:56,200 --> 00:51:00,000
Speaker 1: necessarily all the fronts that they're fighting on are extreme

1090
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:03,040
Speaker 1: and are fringe. So you know, a six week abortion

1091
00:51:03,200 --> 00:51:05,840
Speaker 1: ban or the heartwheat beat or the personhood stuff like

1092
00:51:06,280 --> 00:51:10,279
Speaker 1: these are very these are very have very limited popularity.

1093
00:51:10,719 --> 00:51:13,480
Speaker 1: It's a very small part even of the Republican base

1094
00:51:13,600 --> 00:51:18,040
Speaker 1: that supports some of the most stringent restrictions here. Certainly,

1095
00:51:18,080 --> 00:51:22,439
Speaker 1: a nationwide ban is like wildly unpopular. It's like less

1096
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:25,080
Speaker 1: popular than defund the police, which is famously, you know

1097
00:51:25,120 --> 00:51:28,680
Speaker 1: as a slogan, very unpopular. But that's the only ground

1098
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:32,320
Speaker 1: that's left to fight on, and the pro life base

1099
00:51:32,600 --> 00:51:35,239
Speaker 1: is very organized. They are not content with Roe versus

1100
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:38,640
Speaker 1: way being overturned. So it's sort of like necessarily the

1101
00:51:38,719 --> 00:51:41,880
Speaker 1: turf that's being fought on is very extreme in terms

1102
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 1: of Republicans, it makes it a lot easier. I know

1103
00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:45,319
Speaker 1: they've been trying to pivot to like let's talk about

1104
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:48,920
Speaker 1: partial birds abortion again, but it's hard when the current

1105
00:51:49,040 --> 00:51:51,520
Speaker 1: stories that are coming out of you know, women who

1106
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:53,760
Speaker 1: are like being told go bleed out in the parking

1107
00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:57,040
Speaker 1: lot and when you're on desk door that maybe we'll

1108
00:51:57,080 --> 00:51:57,520
Speaker 1: treat you.

1109
00:51:57,960 --> 00:51:58,879
Speaker 5: Those are the sorts of.

1110
00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 1: Things that are now happening of every day because of

1111
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:03,440
Speaker 1: the restrictions that are being passed into law in these states.

1112
00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:04,960
Speaker 1: So I don't know how you get out of that

1113
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:07,680
Speaker 1: without you know, just like shifting your stance on the issue.

1114
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:10,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you're right, I mean that is absolutely the

1115
00:52:10,560 --> 00:52:13,320
Speaker 4: strategy because and by the way, people like Ralph Northam

1116
00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:17,279
Speaker 4: and Andrew Cuomo make it really easy for Republicans to

1117
00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 4: point to examples of like listen, this is this is

1118
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:22,920
Speaker 4: a so called like moderate centrist Democrat who has some

1119
00:52:22,920 --> 00:52:28,200
Speaker 4: some pretty unpopular positions on third term abortion, and that

1120
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:30,080
Speaker 4: though we've seen.

1121
00:52:30,239 --> 00:52:33,040
Speaker 3: First of all, you have to talk about that proactively.

1122
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:35,400
Speaker 4: You can't wait for the media to start like jumping

1123
00:52:35,400 --> 00:52:37,880
Speaker 4: on you, you have to like actually be be going after that,

1124
00:52:37,960 --> 00:52:39,920
Speaker 4: want to talk about abortion and want to say X,

1125
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:42,279
Speaker 4: Y and Z, which most Republicans don't like. Ryan and

1126
00:52:42,320 --> 00:52:43,920
Speaker 4: I were on air together when Roe v. Wade the

1127
00:52:43,920 --> 00:52:46,359
Speaker 4: decision or the Dobbs decision was handed down. Yeah, first

1128
00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:49,160
Speaker 4: thing I said was the Republican people over at the

1129
00:52:49,239 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 4: RNC right now are.

1130
00:52:50,600 --> 00:52:51,640
Speaker 3: Scared out of their minds.

1131
00:52:51,680 --> 00:52:53,839
Speaker 4: They hate this, Like they're not happy about this at all,

1132
00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:56,279
Speaker 4: because to your point, that was always the thing that

1133
00:52:56,320 --> 00:52:58,680
Speaker 4: they could say, I support you know this, this is

1134
00:52:58,719 --> 00:53:01,880
Speaker 4: like right, and when you lose that, you have to

1135
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:02,720
Speaker 4: go on offense.

1136
00:53:02,840 --> 00:53:04,960
Speaker 3: Otherwise you're going to look terrible.

1137
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:06,880
Speaker 4: You're going to look like you're hiding from the issue,

1138
00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:08,959
Speaker 4: like you're a secret extremist, and.

1139
00:53:09,000 --> 00:53:10,360
Speaker 3: That's what we've seen Republicans do.

1140
00:53:10,520 --> 00:53:12,600
Speaker 4: So the pro life movement right now is really trying

1141
00:53:12,719 --> 00:53:16,040
Speaker 4: to get Republicans to rally around that Lindsay Grahamville the

1142
00:53:16,080 --> 00:53:19,360
Speaker 4: twelve week thing, and there's a lot of hesitancy on

1143
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:21,399
Speaker 4: that because some people want to go further, some people

1144
00:53:21,480 --> 00:53:24,600
Speaker 4: think it goes too far, and it's a huge albatross

1145
00:53:24,640 --> 00:53:27,359
Speaker 4: I think right now because nobody knows how to talk

1146
00:53:27,440 --> 00:53:30,400
Speaker 4: about it, and nobody knows what they actually believe because

1147
00:53:30,719 --> 00:53:33,360
Speaker 4: for a long time, and I think this is still true,

1148
00:53:33,600 --> 00:53:35,520
Speaker 4: those people at the RNC, they don't know what they

1149
00:53:35,520 --> 00:53:37,200
Speaker 4: believe on abortion, and if they do.

1150
00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:40,440
Speaker 3: Know, they probably wish Roe we're still in place.

1151
00:53:40,520 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 1: Oh absolutely, I mean Trump picked up on this right away. Yes, reportedly,

1152
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:46,040
Speaker 1: he said right away, this is going to be a

1153
00:53:46,120 --> 00:53:48,279
Speaker 1: major problem for us, and you can see, you know,

1154
00:53:48,320 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 1: he's pissed off a lot of the pro life groups

1155
00:53:50,120 --> 00:53:52,080
Speaker 1: by being like, listen, I'm going to sell what I

1156
00:53:52,120 --> 00:53:54,240
Speaker 1: did when I was in office by putting these justices

1157
00:53:54,280 --> 00:53:54,640
Speaker 1: on there.

1158
00:53:54,680 --> 00:53:56,439
Speaker 5: But am I going to commit to anything else?

1159
00:53:56,640 --> 00:54:00,680
Speaker 1: No, because politically this is incredibly toxic, and it's part

1160
00:54:00,719 --> 00:54:03,200
Speaker 1: of why, you know, in the twenty twenty four race,

1161
00:54:03,239 --> 00:54:05,399
Speaker 1: there's this assumption like, oh Ron De Santis would be

1162
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:08,879
Speaker 1: more electable than Trump, and maybe, but I'm not even

1163
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:11,440
Speaker 1: one hundred percent sure about that, because this issue has

1164
00:54:11,480 --> 00:54:14,439
Speaker 1: become so potent and so toxic, and he now has

1165
00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:17,759
Speaker 1: this six week ban hung around his neck and has

1166
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:23,000
Speaker 1: taken a more like aggressively overtly right wing stance in

1167
00:54:23,080 --> 00:54:25,879
Speaker 1: terms of abortion. I do think that'll make it more

1168
00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:28,400
Speaker 1: difficult for him if he makes it to a general

1169
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:30,719
Speaker 1: election and cuts into his electability case. And actually, I

1170
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:32,160
Speaker 1: don't know if it's related to this or not, but

1171
00:54:32,200 --> 00:54:34,560
Speaker 1: I actually just saw some numbers that the Republican base

1172
00:54:34,600 --> 00:54:36,560
Speaker 1: thinks Trump is a stronger candidate to win in a

1173
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:41,040
Speaker 1: general election. So this central pitch from DeSantis. Maybe he

1174
00:54:41,120 --> 00:54:42,959
Speaker 1: still is able to make it land with the base.

1175
00:54:43,040 --> 00:54:45,160
Speaker 1: Maybe that becomes the thing that they're most concerned about

1176
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:46,799
Speaker 1: and they're persuaded by his argument, but as.

1177
00:54:46,719 --> 00:54:48,960
Speaker 5: Of today, he hasn't been able to win that debate.

1178
00:54:49,080 --> 00:54:52,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, then there's you know, there's some evidence on that

1179
00:54:52,600 --> 00:54:54,520
Speaker 4: side which that Donald Trump was always able to pick

1180
00:54:54,560 --> 00:54:57,400
Speaker 4: up voters that Republicans never were and those are people

1181
00:54:57,400 --> 00:54:58,839
Speaker 4: that are probably not going to vote for just your

1182
00:54:58,920 --> 00:55:01,000
Speaker 4: average Republican career politician.

1183
00:55:01,200 --> 00:55:03,760
Speaker 3: And you know, the the last thing I'd say.

1184
00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:07,239
Speaker 4: Is actually Trump's one of Trump's best political moments is

1185
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:10,440
Speaker 4: when he went on offense in a debate against Hillary Clinton.

1186
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:13,560
Speaker 3: And whether or not you agree.

1187
00:55:13,800 --> 00:55:18,279
Speaker 4: If anyone agrees with what he said about abortion, he

1188
00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:22,359
Speaker 4: was he painted a very vivid picture and just went

1189
00:55:22,600 --> 00:55:23,960
Speaker 4: in on Hillary Clinton.

1190
00:55:24,120 --> 00:55:26,280
Speaker 3: And that is I think an.

1191
00:55:26,160 --> 00:55:30,480
Speaker 4: Example of where going on offense from a strategic messaging perspective,

1192
00:55:30,520 --> 00:55:33,440
Speaker 4: for Republicans can be really strong.

1193
00:55:33,200 --> 00:55:34,120
Speaker 3: And really valuable.

1194
00:55:34,160 --> 00:55:36,880
Speaker 4: But then if you have six week bans, for instance,

1195
00:55:37,160 --> 00:55:38,680
Speaker 4: it makes it much harder.

1196
00:55:38,880 --> 00:55:41,440
Speaker 3: Like that takes some of the power away from doing that.

1197
00:55:41,560 --> 00:55:43,480
Speaker 5: So there's no question makes it much harder to ship

1198
00:55:43,520 --> 00:55:43,960
Speaker 5: the focus.

1199
00:55:43,960 --> 00:55:47,280
Speaker 1: I mean, I've always said Americans, I think on this issue,

1200
00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:49,920
Speaker 1: you obviously have you know, you have your id logus

1201
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:52,200
Speaker 1: who this is their number one issue when they're clustered

1202
00:55:52,200 --> 00:55:54,200
Speaker 1: at the extremes and they drive most of the debate.

1203
00:55:54,800 --> 00:55:57,440
Speaker 1: Most Americans overwhelmingly, you know, they see it as a

1204
00:55:57,480 --> 00:56:01,120
Speaker 1: moral issue, they see it as a difficult and tricky issue,

1205
00:56:01,160 --> 00:56:03,880
Speaker 1: and they have these sort of like mixed and moderate

1206
00:56:03,960 --> 00:56:07,560
Speaker 1: stances on it which I really relate to and I

1207
00:56:07,960 --> 00:56:12,920
Speaker 1: think agree with actually. And so whichever party seems to

1208
00:56:12,960 --> 00:56:16,640
Speaker 1: be embracing the most like fringe part of this argument,

1209
00:56:16,640 --> 00:56:19,799
Speaker 1: they're going to be losing on this issue. And Democrats

1210
00:56:19,800 --> 00:56:22,440
Speaker 1: have been in that position where they've been effectively painted

1211
00:56:22,480 --> 00:56:25,399
Speaker 1: as the extremists on the issue, and now Republicans, given

1212
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:27,239
Speaker 1: the new landscape, I think it's just very hard for

1213
00:56:27,280 --> 00:56:31,320
Speaker 1: them to escape that box. And clearly it is very motivating,

1214
00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:32,680
Speaker 1: so interesting data.

1215
00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:34,840
Speaker 5: They're out of your home state of Wisconsin.

1216
00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:37,760
Speaker 3: That's right. And Chris CHRISTI, by the way, he's in.

1217
00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:39,720
Speaker 5: It's happening New News.

1218
00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:43,000
Speaker 4: So while we're talking about politics and elections, Chris Christie's

1219
00:56:43,040 --> 00:56:45,400
Speaker 4: super pac has been formed. He has actually set to

1220
00:56:45,600 --> 00:56:49,680
Speaker 4: announce his candidacy in New Hampshire next week. I mean,

1221
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:52,400
Speaker 4: the details from Axios about how he wants to be

1222
00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:54,080
Speaker 4: his pitch to voters.

1223
00:56:54,400 --> 00:56:55,480
Speaker 3: I think it's laughable.

1224
00:56:56,360 --> 00:56:58,440
Speaker 5: What are the details? What is his pitch to voters

1225
00:56:58,480 --> 00:56:59,359
Speaker 5: that he wants to be.

1226
00:56:59,440 --> 00:57:01,080
Speaker 3: I think the word they used was jolly.

1227
00:57:02,040 --> 00:57:04,960
Speaker 5: Okay, that all right? I like jolly yeah.

1228
00:57:05,080 --> 00:57:08,000
Speaker 3: I mean, but Christie, I just think it's hard yet

1229
00:57:08,040 --> 00:57:08,560
Speaker 3: hear it is.

1230
00:57:10,040 --> 00:57:15,440
Speaker 4: That Christy thinks I can't take this seriously. Being joyfully,

1231
00:57:15,440 --> 00:57:19,640
Speaker 4: being joyful and a hopeful note aimed at America's quote

1232
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:23,840
Speaker 4: exhausted majority, being authentic, a happy warrior who speaks his mind,

1233
00:57:23,880 --> 00:57:26,440
Speaker 4: and running a national race a quote non traditional campaign

1234
00:57:26,480 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 4: that is highly focused on earned media, mixing up the

1235
00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:31,040
Speaker 4: news cycle, and engaging Trump. That is code for we

1236
00:57:31,080 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 4: don't have any freaking money because nobody's gonna put money

1237
00:57:33,800 --> 00:57:37,360
Speaker 4: buying Chris Christy because he flamed out obviously in twenty sixteen,

1238
00:57:37,440 --> 00:57:41,480
Speaker 4: and it has even more, way more issues with a

1239
00:57:41,520 --> 00:57:44,640
Speaker 4: Republican voter base right now in twenty twenty three.

1240
00:57:45,040 --> 00:57:48,120
Speaker 3: This is also bad news for any.

1241
00:57:47,920 --> 00:57:52,520
Speaker 4: Republican who helps to have a binary Trump versus Destantus race.

1242
00:57:52,840 --> 00:57:54,919
Speaker 5: That ship is sailed a who long time ago.

1243
00:57:55,960 --> 00:57:59,600
Speaker 4: People will still say, for instance, you know, we want

1244
00:57:59,880 --> 00:58:02,520
Speaker 4: we expect that folks will learn from twenty sixteen and

1245
00:58:02,560 --> 00:58:05,320
Speaker 4: dip out of the race earlier when they realized that

1246
00:58:05,360 --> 00:58:07,720
Speaker 4: their candidacy doesn't have any wings, and they'll stop, you know,

1247
00:58:07,720 --> 00:58:10,000
Speaker 4: stop the bleeding so that they can you know, if

1248
00:58:10,000 --> 00:58:12,600
Speaker 4: it's Trump versus pen so Trump versus DeSantis, which is

1249
00:58:12,720 --> 00:58:16,160
Speaker 4: probably more likely outcome, it can just be Trump versus DeSantis,

1250
00:58:16,200 --> 00:58:18,560
Speaker 4: and it's more of like a Hillary Bernie race where

1251
00:58:18,560 --> 00:58:20,760
Speaker 4: those votes aren't split up in so many different ways.

1252
00:58:20,920 --> 00:58:22,880
Speaker 4: But the more people you have entering, the less chance

1253
00:58:22,920 --> 00:58:23,520
Speaker 4: of that happening.

1254
00:58:23,600 --> 00:58:25,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's a sign of DeSantis's weakness that so

1255
00:58:26,040 --> 00:58:28,680
Speaker 1: many people decided to jump in the race to be

1256
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:31,960
Speaker 1: the Trump alternative, because if he had really appeared like

1257
00:58:32,000 --> 00:58:34,000
Speaker 1: a juggernaut, like all this guy, there's no way he

1258
00:58:34,040 --> 00:58:37,400
Speaker 1: could be knocked off. Then you would have discouraged some

1259
00:58:37,480 --> 00:58:40,200
Speaker 1: of these folks from getting in the race. And also

1260
00:58:40,880 --> 00:58:43,120
Speaker 1: the fact that you know, the donors didn't like some

1261
00:58:43,160 --> 00:58:45,520
Speaker 1: of his answers on Ukraine, they didn't like the six

1262
00:58:45,560 --> 00:58:48,360
Speaker 1: week abortion band to our comments previously. And so I

1263
00:58:48,360 --> 00:58:50,720
Speaker 1: actually do think Christy will have at least some funding

1264
00:58:50,760 --> 00:58:52,920
Speaker 1: behind him. He's set up some of his aides have

1265
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:56,720
Speaker 1: set up a super pack to back him and his pitch. Previously,

1266
00:58:56,800 --> 00:58:58,320
Speaker 1: now he's leaning into like, oh, I'm going to be

1267
00:58:58,360 --> 00:59:02,720
Speaker 1: the joyful, happy warrior national campaign and etc. Previously, I

1268
00:59:02,720 --> 00:59:04,920
Speaker 1: think he had a more honest assessment of what his

1269
00:59:04,960 --> 00:59:06,680
Speaker 1: goal was, which is like, I'm going to do to

1270
00:59:06,680 --> 00:59:09,400
Speaker 1: Trump what I did to Marco last time around. I'm

1271
00:59:09,480 --> 00:59:11,920
Speaker 1: good at being the pugilist. I'm good at fighting. I'm

1272
00:59:11,960 --> 00:59:14,160
Speaker 1: not afraid of the bully, Like I'll go in there

1273
00:59:14,280 --> 00:59:16,800
Speaker 1: and I'll mess him up, and that'll give an opportunity

1274
00:59:16,800 --> 00:59:19,200
Speaker 1: for other people to be able to succeed, whether it's

1275
00:59:19,280 --> 00:59:21,040
Speaker 1: Christi or DeSantis or someone else.

1276
00:59:21,400 --> 00:59:22,480
Speaker 5: Do I think that's gonna work.

1277
00:59:22,520 --> 00:59:24,520
Speaker 1: Do I think Christy has like that kind of traction

1278
00:59:24,640 --> 00:59:25,640
Speaker 1: with the Republican base.

1279
00:59:25,760 --> 00:59:28,080
Speaker 5: No, not necessarily, but I do.

1280
00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:31,320
Speaker 1: Think that that is an appealing and sensible enough pitch

1281
00:59:31,920 --> 00:59:34,880
Speaker 1: that he's going to get some funders. And definitely, if

1282
00:59:34,880 --> 00:59:37,920
Speaker 1: he's launching, he already has some funders behind him. You

1283
00:59:37,960 --> 00:59:41,080
Speaker 1: only need one billionaire to like float your super pack

1284
00:59:41,360 --> 00:59:43,000
Speaker 1: in order for you to be able to get in

1285
00:59:43,040 --> 00:59:45,840
Speaker 1: there and do your thing. Now, part of the problem

1286
00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:49,360
Speaker 1: for him is that, you know, unlike what he was

1287
00:59:49,400 --> 00:59:52,600
Speaker 1: able to do with Marco Number one, Trump is much

1288
00:59:52,600 --> 00:59:56,000
Speaker 1: more skilled political player on a debate stage than Marco

1289
00:59:56,080 --> 00:59:56,640
Speaker 1: Rubio is.

1290
00:59:57,040 --> 00:59:59,600
Speaker 5: But also, I don't think Trump's going to debate, so

1291
01:00:00,200 --> 01:00:01,280
Speaker 5: not likely to have that.

1292
01:00:01,200 --> 01:00:04,720
Speaker 1: Moment where you can make him look foolish in real time.

1293
01:00:04,840 --> 01:00:06,560
Speaker 1: And that is what Chris Christie I mean, you guys,

1294
01:00:06,640 --> 01:00:08,240
Speaker 1: I don't know if you remember, but when he was

1295
01:00:08,240 --> 01:00:11,200
Speaker 1: coming to prominence and when Republicans were absolutely loving this

1296
01:00:11,280 --> 01:00:13,840
Speaker 1: guy is he would do these town halls and were

1297
01:00:13,880 --> 01:00:17,479
Speaker 1: like yell at teachers and you know, very like he

1298
01:00:17,920 --> 01:00:20,280
Speaker 1: embodied some of that like we just want someone who's

1299
01:00:20,280 --> 01:00:24,400
Speaker 1: going to fight energy before Trump came along. And part

1300
01:00:24,440 --> 01:00:26,400
Speaker 1: of what went wrong for him in the twenty sixteen

1301
01:00:26,520 --> 01:00:29,840
Speaker 1: race is that Trump sort of stole his spotlight in

1302
01:00:29,960 --> 01:00:33,920
Speaker 1: terms of the abrasive lane that he was planning to occupy,

1303
01:00:34,400 --> 01:00:37,720
Speaker 1: so he is I've always thought Chris Christy is genuinely

1304
01:00:37,760 --> 01:00:40,960
Speaker 1: politically talented. I just don't think he has credibility with

1305
01:00:41,000 --> 01:00:43,520
Speaker 1: the Republican base at this point. But you know, one

1306
01:00:43,560 --> 01:00:46,360
Speaker 1: of his allies who started this super pack, he says,

1307
01:00:46,360 --> 01:00:48,880
Speaker 1: mister CHRISTI is willing to confront the hard truths that

1308
01:00:48,920 --> 01:00:51,760
Speaker 1: currently threaten the future of the Republican Party now more

1309
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:53,800
Speaker 1: than Averurwen need leaders that have the courage to say

1310
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:56,080
Speaker 1: not what we want to hear, but what we need

1311
01:00:56,120 --> 01:00:59,400
Speaker 1: to hear. So he's almost on like a kamikaze mission,

1312
01:00:59,440 --> 01:01:02,360
Speaker 1: I think, to try to bloody Trump and make it

1313
01:01:02,400 --> 01:01:04,919
Speaker 1: possible that someone else could succeed. He's also been though

1314
01:01:05,000 --> 01:01:07,640
Speaker 1: article of Rod DeSantis, so it's not like he's in

1315
01:01:07,680 --> 01:01:09,960
Speaker 1: there just to do the dirty work of Rod DeSantis either.

1316
01:01:10,160 --> 01:01:13,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, he criticized Rond de Santis from his left on

1317
01:01:13,240 --> 01:01:16,240
Speaker 4: Disney or from his like libertarian side on Disney, which

1318
01:01:16,240 --> 01:01:18,960
Speaker 4: is just I don't know why Republicans think, from from

1319
01:01:19,000 --> 01:01:22,240
Speaker 4: Nicky Haley to Chris Christie to what like Asa Hudgens,

1320
01:01:22,240 --> 01:01:24,439
Speaker 4: I don't know why anybody thinks, yeah, Trump, that's right,

1321
01:01:24,480 --> 01:01:26,040
Speaker 4: that's the elephant.

1322
01:01:25,680 --> 01:01:26,000
Speaker 3: In the room.

1323
01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:28,880
Speaker 4: I don't know why anybody thinks that's a winning campaign strategy.

1324
01:01:28,920 --> 01:01:32,320
Speaker 4: But I think with Chris Christie, New Hampshire is actually

1325
01:01:32,320 --> 01:01:34,440
Speaker 4: where he had that moment against Marco Rubio.

1326
01:01:34,600 --> 01:01:35,480
Speaker 3: Oh it's eat stage.

1327
01:01:35,520 --> 01:01:36,000
Speaker 5: Remember that.

1328
01:01:36,240 --> 01:01:39,120
Speaker 4: You can see how Yeah, the pugilism and the more

1329
01:01:39,160 --> 01:01:42,360
Speaker 4: centrism of somebody like Chris Christie new Hampshire really should

1330
01:01:42,400 --> 01:01:46,439
Speaker 4: be his bread and butter. But that point about courage, yeah,

1331
01:01:46,440 --> 01:01:48,120
Speaker 4: I agree, this is a common Coze mission. I don't

1332
01:01:48,120 --> 01:01:49,760
Speaker 4: think he thinks he's going to be president. I think

1333
01:01:49,760 --> 01:01:51,760
Speaker 4: he probably thinks maybe there's a chance, so it might

1334
01:01:51,760 --> 01:01:53,800
Speaker 4: as well run take down Trump in the process and

1335
01:01:53,840 --> 01:01:56,760
Speaker 4: have fun on TV, which is the earned media aspect.

1336
01:01:56,520 --> 01:01:58,240
Speaker 5: Of his campaign strategy he enjoys.

1337
01:01:58,440 --> 01:02:01,240
Speaker 3: He's got a former Romney staffer.

1338
01:02:01,520 --> 01:02:04,240
Speaker 4: I mean, it just it's not a recipe for success

1339
01:02:04,280 --> 01:02:08,600
Speaker 4: with today's Republican Party and his courage message, he is

1340
01:02:08,680 --> 01:02:10,560
Speaker 4: going to have a hell of a time making that

1341
01:02:10,640 --> 01:02:14,800
Speaker 4: pitch when I think he has really covered himself in

1342
01:02:15,560 --> 01:02:18,360
Speaker 4: not so much glory. It's more embarrassing the way he

1343
01:02:18,920 --> 01:02:20,760
Speaker 4: what does that media report about how he went to

1344
01:02:20,800 --> 01:02:22,720
Speaker 4: like get Trump's McDonald's orders for.

1345
01:02:22,720 --> 01:02:25,280
Speaker 5: Him, Well, he's kind of pleased nobody exactly.

1346
01:02:25,280 --> 01:02:27,200
Speaker 1: I mean, you've got, you know, the Liz Cheney's of

1347
01:02:27,240 --> 01:02:30,080
Speaker 1: the world, like there's a constituency for them, you know,

1348
01:02:30,320 --> 01:02:33,520
Speaker 1: become the resistance hero and be consistent and strident in

1349
01:02:33,560 --> 01:02:34,800
Speaker 1: your opposition to Trump.

1350
01:02:35,040 --> 01:02:37,800
Speaker 5: Christy's been all over the map, you know Afrey.

1351
01:02:38,120 --> 01:02:41,520
Speaker 1: After he nuked Rubio, which was much to Trump's benefit,

1352
01:02:41,960 --> 01:02:44,720
Speaker 1: he then drops out and endorses Trump.

1353
01:02:45,040 --> 01:02:48,200
Speaker 5: He gets the McDonald's, does that dance for a while?

1354
01:02:48,240 --> 01:02:48,760
Speaker 3: Sucks up.

1355
01:02:49,040 --> 01:02:52,320
Speaker 1: I actually think the breaking point was breaking fack to

1356
01:02:52,360 --> 01:02:56,680
Speaker 1: do that anyway, was when Trump was using Christy for

1357
01:02:56,960 --> 01:02:59,520
Speaker 1: debate prep and they were in like a hotel room

1358
01:02:59,520 --> 01:03:02,880
Speaker 1: together and whatever. And it turns out Trump, which he

1359
01:03:02,960 --> 01:03:06,200
Speaker 1: probably knew at the time, had COVID, and Chris Christy

1360
01:03:06,520 --> 01:03:09,720
Speaker 1: got COVID from Trump from helping him with his debate prep.

1361
01:03:09,960 --> 01:03:13,320
Speaker 1: At that time, Chris Christie almost died from COVID. I mean,

1362
01:03:13,400 --> 01:03:15,480
Speaker 1: you know, he's overweight, he was in the hospital. He

1363
01:03:15,560 --> 01:03:20,000
Speaker 1: really it was very serious and very grave. And reportedly,

1364
01:03:20,720 --> 01:03:23,120
Speaker 1: Trump when he called him, it wasn't like, oh my god,

1365
01:03:23,160 --> 01:03:25,240
Speaker 1: are you okay, I'm so sorry. It was like, you're

1366
01:03:25,280 --> 01:03:27,280
Speaker 1: not gonna tell anyone that I gave it to you, right,

1367
01:03:28,280 --> 01:03:31,120
Speaker 1: it seems like that was the real, like personal breaking

1368
01:03:31,160 --> 01:03:34,720
Speaker 1: point for Chris Christy. But even if you're gonna but

1369
01:03:34,800 --> 01:03:38,120
Speaker 1: he's not the resistance hero that Liz Cheney is, because

1370
01:03:38,200 --> 01:03:40,480
Speaker 1: he was backing Trump all the way up until that

1371
01:03:40,600 --> 01:03:42,920
Speaker 1: moment and carrying water for him and apparently getting his

1372
01:03:43,000 --> 01:03:48,240
Speaker 1: McDonald's and whatever else was required. And now he's completely

1373
01:03:48,280 --> 01:03:50,680
Speaker 1: lost the Republican base because he's been willing to criticize

1374
01:03:50,720 --> 01:03:53,200
Speaker 1: Trump and made, you know, a hard break from him.

1375
01:03:53,600 --> 01:03:56,880
Speaker 1: So it's hard to see what his constituency really is,

1376
01:03:57,080 --> 01:03:59,320
Speaker 1: even though again I do think that the man, you know,

1377
01:03:59,480 --> 01:04:02,600
Speaker 1: just on like raw political talent level, I've always thought

1378
01:04:02,640 --> 01:04:04,840
Speaker 1: he's very talented. I think if he had been the

1379
01:04:04,880 --> 01:04:07,000
Speaker 1: Republican nominee in twenty twelve, I think they would have

1380
01:04:07,000 --> 01:04:10,280
Speaker 1: had a much better shot against Barack Obama. But it's

1381
01:04:10,280 --> 01:04:13,560
Speaker 1: hard to see what his lane is here.

1382
01:04:14,000 --> 01:04:14,360
Speaker 5: Emily.

1383
01:04:14,520 --> 01:04:16,800
Speaker 1: One question I have for you is, like, do you

1384
01:04:16,840 --> 01:04:20,280
Speaker 1: see a vulnerability for Trump, Like if you were advising

1385
01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:24,080
Speaker 1: DeSantis or any of these other cast of characters, is

1386
01:04:24,160 --> 01:04:27,000
Speaker 1: there an area where the Republican basis Like I'm not

1387
01:04:27,040 --> 01:04:29,720
Speaker 1: sure that you could press on that you could potentially,

1388
01:04:29,800 --> 01:04:31,600
Speaker 1: you know, move them off of him, or is he

1389
01:04:31,760 --> 01:04:35,080
Speaker 1: just still the sort of beating heart of the Republican

1390
01:04:35,120 --> 01:04:39,520
Speaker 1: Party and very hard to supplant barring some sort of

1391
01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:42,120
Speaker 1: like external factor that you have no control over.

1392
01:04:42,400 --> 01:04:42,600
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1393
01:04:42,600 --> 01:04:45,000
Speaker 4: I was talking to someone about this yesterday, because every

1394
01:04:45,120 --> 01:04:48,760
Speaker 4: little attack I think other Republicans the DeSantis camp included

1395
01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:52,520
Speaker 4: things that they end up having on Donald Trump. It's like, well, listen,

1396
01:04:52,680 --> 01:04:55,720
Speaker 4: the guy isn't running on policy. He does run on

1397
01:04:55,720 --> 01:05:00,160
Speaker 4: some of these really broad policy issues. You know, on

1398
01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:03,480
Speaker 4: Ukraine for instance, that's you know that sort of like

1399
01:05:03,480 --> 01:05:06,560
Speaker 4: fits with his broad narratives. On foreign policy, he runs

1400
01:05:06,560 --> 01:05:09,240
Speaker 4: in one position on immigration, he runs in one position

1401
01:05:09,280 --> 01:05:12,280
Speaker 4: on the media. And you know those are like kind

1402
01:05:12,320 --> 01:05:15,240
Speaker 4: of policy flanks, but they're not specific. And so yeah, Trump,

1403
01:05:15,320 --> 01:05:18,040
Speaker 4: you know, getting attacked on specific policies or things. He

1404
01:05:18,080 --> 01:05:20,560
Speaker 4: may have said like you never have him. I'm sorry,

1405
01:05:20,560 --> 01:05:23,000
Speaker 4: but like you just you never have him. It's never

1406
01:05:23,040 --> 01:05:25,280
Speaker 4: going to happen. But I think he does come in

1407
01:05:25,320 --> 01:05:28,440
Speaker 4: with one serious disadvantage, which is having been president of

1408
01:05:28,480 --> 01:05:32,280
Speaker 4: the United States and losing. That takes the win out

1409
01:05:32,320 --> 01:05:34,439
Speaker 4: of his sales of the kind of winner argument, which

1410
01:05:34,480 --> 01:05:37,560
Speaker 4: is why he clings to the election fraud argument. The

1411
01:05:37,640 --> 01:05:41,720
Speaker 4: lie about stolen, a stolen election. I think that's why,

1412
01:05:42,480 --> 01:05:45,240
Speaker 4: which is not stolen. I think that's why, you know,

1413
01:05:45,400 --> 01:05:49,240
Speaker 4: he I think that's why he really clings to that

1414
01:05:49,360 --> 01:05:52,760
Speaker 4: narrative in particulars because being a loser is toxic for

1415
01:05:52,840 --> 01:05:56,120
Speaker 4: Donald Trump, and then also coming into office.

1416
01:05:55,840 --> 01:05:59,360
Speaker 3: Not building the wall, you know, not he has a

1417
01:05:59,360 --> 01:06:00,640
Speaker 3: lot of things that he said he was going to do.

1418
01:06:00,960 --> 01:06:03,360
Speaker 4: He'll say it was because you know, he was taken

1419
01:06:03,360 --> 01:06:06,120
Speaker 4: out of office by his stolen election. But I still

1420
01:06:06,160 --> 01:06:08,840
Speaker 4: think that's you know, even if you think the election

1421
01:06:09,000 --> 01:06:11,560
Speaker 4: was rigged, not stolen, I think that's a really tough

1422
01:06:11,680 --> 01:06:15,160
Speaker 4: argument to make for Trump. So that's definitely a disadvantage.

1423
01:06:15,200 --> 01:06:17,920
Speaker 4: And that's one thing he's never had as a presidential

1424
01:06:17,920 --> 01:06:22,040
Speaker 4: candidate before, is that he lost and this is the

1425
01:06:22,040 --> 01:06:22,880
Speaker 4: time to test it out.

1426
01:06:23,200 --> 01:06:23,640
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1427
01:06:23,800 --> 01:06:27,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, I mean he's made it very difficult because unfortunately,

1428
01:06:28,000 --> 01:06:30,520
Speaker 1: overwhelming majority of the Republican base believes the stop the

1429
01:06:30,560 --> 01:06:33,000
Speaker 1: steal stuff, so they don't see him as a loser.

1430
01:06:33,440 --> 01:06:34,480
Speaker 5: They think he was robbed.

1431
01:06:34,680 --> 01:06:36,920
Speaker 1: But I do see DeSantis trying to sort of like

1432
01:06:37,160 --> 01:06:39,160
Speaker 1: gesture at that when he's talking about, hey, we should

1433
01:06:39,160 --> 01:06:40,720
Speaker 1: have done maybe we should have done mail in voting.

1434
01:06:40,760 --> 01:06:43,200
Speaker 1: Maybe that would have worked out for you better what

1435
01:06:43,320 --> 01:06:45,720
Speaker 1: actually happened, which is just like indisputably true.

1436
01:06:45,960 --> 01:06:48,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, and that's where Republicans are on this. Most publics,

1437
01:06:49,360 --> 01:06:52,280
Speaker 4: most like activist Republicans or people in DC, agree with that.

1438
01:06:52,320 --> 01:06:57,680
Speaker 4: At this point, Crystal, let's move on to millennials.

1439
01:06:58,520 --> 01:06:59,720
Speaker 3: We're both millennials, aren'tly?

1440
01:06:59,800 --> 01:07:02,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm barely barely. I'm like an old millennial.

1441
01:07:02,280 --> 01:07:03,240
Speaker 3: You're an elder millennia.

1442
01:07:03,320 --> 01:07:04,840
Speaker 5: Yes, I am a senior millennial.

1443
01:07:05,160 --> 01:07:08,840
Speaker 4: Well, this article caught our eye because it crunches some

1444
01:07:08,880 --> 01:07:12,000
Speaker 4: new numbers on how millennials are faring. And I know

1445
01:07:12,040 --> 01:07:14,320
Speaker 4: a lot of our audience is definitely in the millennial camp.

1446
01:07:14,480 --> 01:07:16,919
Speaker 3: Take a look at this tear shady. It's d one.

1447
01:07:17,080 --> 01:07:21,000
Speaker 4: This headline in particular, people were circulating it on Twitter because.

1448
01:07:20,720 --> 01:07:22,120
Speaker 3: It seems shocking.

1449
01:07:22,600 --> 01:07:24,760
Speaker 4: The headline from Business Insider here is meet the average

1450
01:07:24,760 --> 01:07:27,400
Speaker 4: American millennial who's a parent and homeowner with a net

1451
01:07:27,400 --> 01:07:30,240
Speaker 4: worth of one hundred and twenty eight thousand dollars and

1452
01:07:30,440 --> 01:07:34,919
Speaker 4: hoping for student debt relief, the article says, and here's

1453
01:07:34,920 --> 01:07:37,680
Speaker 4: where some of the numbers get interesting. As of twenty nineteen,

1454
01:07:37,720 --> 01:07:40,880
Speaker 4: the median millennial household income when adjusted for inflation, was

1455
01:07:40,960 --> 01:07:44,440
Speaker 4: roughly ten thousand higher than the ten thousand dollars higher

1456
01:07:44,440 --> 01:07:47,200
Speaker 4: than those of medium Gen X and Boomer households at

1457
01:07:47,240 --> 01:07:50,240
Speaker 4: the same age. So this is comparing millennials, a snapshot

1458
01:07:50,240 --> 01:07:53,200
Speaker 4: of millennials right now to the same snapshots of Gen

1459
01:07:53,400 --> 01:07:56,160
Speaker 4: X and Boomer households at the same nay, at the

1460
01:07:56,200 --> 01:07:58,880
Speaker 4: same time. They say it's taken millennials some time to

1461
01:07:58,880 --> 01:08:01,040
Speaker 4: catch up to prior generation. And when it comes to wealth,

1462
01:08:01,640 --> 01:08:03,960
Speaker 4: the FED in Saint Louis, they did an analysis of

1463
01:08:03,960 --> 01:08:07,240
Speaker 4: twenty sixteen data found that families of older millennials had

1464
01:08:07,280 --> 01:08:09,920
Speaker 4: a median wealth of about thirty percent lower than people

1465
01:08:09,920 --> 01:08:12,120
Speaker 4: of prior generations at the same age, but by the

1466
01:08:12,160 --> 01:08:15,800
Speaker 4: time twenty nineteen data was available, that gap had shrunk

1467
01:08:15,840 --> 01:08:19,840
Speaker 4: to eleven percent. And then an analysis of twenty twenty

1468
01:08:19,880 --> 01:08:22,759
Speaker 4: two data found that quote young Americans, so that's people

1469
01:08:23,240 --> 01:08:26,320
Speaker 4: from about thirty three to thirty four millennials had roughly

1470
01:08:26,320 --> 01:08:29,439
Speaker 4: the same average wealth adjusted for inflation as jen X

1471
01:08:29,439 --> 01:08:33,200
Speaker 4: did at the same age. Now that's a very specific

1472
01:08:33,240 --> 01:08:36,400
Speaker 4: cohort thirty three to thirty four, that's not millennials more broadly,

1473
01:08:36,439 --> 01:08:38,320
Speaker 4: and I think that's some of the problems with this number.

1474
01:08:38,520 --> 01:08:41,559
Speaker 4: With these numbers is that you can find numbers that

1475
01:08:42,200 --> 01:08:44,320
Speaker 4: are very specific to like thirty three to thirty four

1476
01:08:44,360 --> 01:08:46,600
Speaker 4: as opposed to millennials that are like twenty seven to

1477
01:08:46,720 --> 01:08:49,519
Speaker 4: forty at this point, and jump in in a specific

1478
01:08:49,600 --> 01:08:51,519
Speaker 4: period of time, pull that number out and say, listen,

1479
01:08:51,600 --> 01:08:57,439
Speaker 4: millennials are fine, but homeownership millennials hit the majority homeownership rate.

1480
01:08:57,560 --> 01:08:59,680
Speaker 3: Actually, according to rent.

1481
01:08:59,439 --> 01:09:05,760
Speaker 4: Cafe, that was what was that last year and apparently

1482
01:09:05,840 --> 01:09:07,840
Speaker 4: so the average millennial was thirty four years old. When

1483
01:09:07,840 --> 01:09:11,080
Speaker 4: the generation reached that milestone, Gen X and Boomers were

1484
01:09:11,120 --> 01:09:13,800
Speaker 4: thirty two and thirty three. So again you have a

1485
01:09:13,960 --> 01:09:16,320
Speaker 4: business insiders saying they weren't.

1486
01:09:16,000 --> 01:09:17,000
Speaker 3: That far behind.

1487
01:09:17,400 --> 01:09:21,000
Speaker 4: But again that's actually not accurate either, because we don't

1488
01:09:21,040 --> 01:09:25,839
Speaker 4: know until millennials are like we actually don't know until

1489
01:09:26,040 --> 01:09:29,760
Speaker 4: we have a clear information on like the twenty seven

1490
01:09:29,840 --> 01:09:32,759
Speaker 4: year olds, right like by the time they've reached the age,

1491
01:09:32,800 --> 01:09:35,640
Speaker 4: they're not thirty four yet, they're not necessarily at the

1492
01:09:35,680 --> 01:09:36,439
Speaker 4: average yet.

1493
01:09:36,600 --> 01:09:39,440
Speaker 3: So I don't know. I think this is all really premature.

1494
01:09:39,040 --> 01:09:42,400
Speaker 4: And I had to include this National Review article.

1495
01:09:42,439 --> 01:09:44,560
Speaker 3: We can put the next element up on the screen.

1496
01:09:44,280 --> 01:09:48,520
Speaker 4: Because this to me playing semantics with the word crisis,

1497
01:09:48,560 --> 01:09:53,000
Speaker 4: saying the student debt crisis doesn't actually exist, saying it's bad,

1498
01:09:53,360 --> 01:09:56,240
Speaker 4: but it's not a crisis because Americans have all kinds

1499
01:09:56,280 --> 01:09:58,360
Speaker 4: of other debt that we don't call it crisis.

1500
01:09:58,400 --> 01:10:00,799
Speaker 5: It's just an maybe we should call that debt a crisis.

1501
01:10:01,000 --> 01:10:03,160
Speaker 5: Certainly a medical debt is a crasis exactly.

1502
01:10:03,200 --> 01:10:06,479
Speaker 4: And here's the line that really I thought was such

1503
01:10:06,520 --> 01:10:10,720
Speaker 4: a tell and just incredible quote. The vast majority of

1504
01:10:10,720 --> 01:10:14,599
Speaker 4: student loan borrowers have manageable debt burdens of five thousand

1505
01:10:14,640 --> 01:10:16,280
Speaker 4: of forty thousand dollars.

1506
01:10:16,360 --> 01:10:20,400
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, mayl manageable forty thousand dollars in debt, super manageable.

1507
01:10:20,520 --> 01:10:21,519
Speaker 3: I don't care if you're.

1508
01:10:21,400 --> 01:10:24,800
Speaker 4: Going to be a doctor coming into your which is

1509
01:10:24,840 --> 01:10:26,479
Speaker 4: not the case with most of those people.

1510
01:10:26,520 --> 01:10:28,320
Speaker 3: And by the way, there are a lot.

1511
01:10:28,160 --> 01:10:31,759
Speaker 4: Of outliers and millennial among millennials who have like crazy

1512
01:10:31,800 --> 01:10:35,000
Speaker 4: amounts of debt, like pushing six figures. Oh yeah, and

1513
01:10:35,120 --> 01:10:37,840
Speaker 4: those are for degrees that are not going to make

1514
01:10:37,880 --> 01:10:39,640
Speaker 4: it easy to pay it off. But even if you're

1515
01:10:39,640 --> 01:10:42,880
Speaker 4: talking about an average from five to forty thousand, the average,

1516
01:10:42,920 --> 01:10:44,720
Speaker 4: I think graduates with closer.

1517
01:10:44,479 --> 01:10:45,320
Speaker 3: To forty thousand.

1518
01:10:45,400 --> 01:10:47,200
Speaker 4: So whether or not it's five or forty thousand right

1519
01:10:47,200 --> 01:10:49,639
Speaker 4: now is a different question. We've seen poll after pollstal

1520
01:10:49,680 --> 01:10:52,240
Speaker 4: millennials saying that has made them put off marriage, it

1521
01:10:52,240 --> 01:10:54,360
Speaker 4: has made them put off home ownership, It's made them

1522
01:10:54,400 --> 01:10:56,720
Speaker 4: put off all kinds of different normal milestones, and so

1523
01:10:57,080 --> 01:10:59,680
Speaker 4: yet having to scrape by for years and years and

1524
01:10:59,760 --> 01:11:02,200
Speaker 4: years where you are for instance, Lime and Stone at

1525
01:11:02,240 --> 01:11:05,000
Speaker 4: the has crunch numbers over and over again showing women

1526
01:11:05,040 --> 01:11:07,439
Speaker 4: have fewer children than they say they want. Yes, that's

1527
01:11:07,640 --> 01:11:10,800
Speaker 4: really freaking sad, and that is a consequence in some

1528
01:11:10,840 --> 01:11:14,000
Speaker 4: ways of putting off marriage, of putting off home ownership,

1529
01:11:14,080 --> 01:11:16,759
Speaker 4: and all of these different milestones because you were bogged

1530
01:11:16,760 --> 01:11:19,920
Speaker 4: down in debt student loan debt in particular. The polling

1531
01:11:19,920 --> 01:11:21,880
Speaker 4: has found that it is an influence on this, and

1532
01:11:21,880 --> 01:11:25,120
Speaker 4: the same thing goes for like you're saying, medical debt

1533
01:11:25,120 --> 01:11:26,880
Speaker 4: and all those other things. It is a crisis, whether

1534
01:11:27,000 --> 01:11:30,240
Speaker 4: student loans or medical debt or anything else. It's absolutely

1535
01:11:30,320 --> 01:11:33,360
Speaker 4: a crisis, and it does prevent people from having lives

1536
01:11:33,640 --> 01:11:35,400
Speaker 4: that they wanted to see themselves have.

1537
01:11:35,600 --> 01:11:37,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this is part of First of all,

1538
01:11:37,840 --> 01:11:40,000
Speaker 1: let's think about the framing of this article, that's like

1539
01:11:40,880 --> 01:11:43,080
Speaker 1: older millennials, it's not even all millennials.

1540
01:11:43,160 --> 01:11:47,240
Speaker 5: Older millennials have maybe started to catch up to boomers.

1541
01:11:47,360 --> 01:11:50,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, is that our standard for a country that like,

1542
01:11:50,280 --> 01:11:54,280
Speaker 1: younger generations may possibly at some point in their lives

1543
01:11:54,400 --> 01:11:56,920
Speaker 1: be able to achieve the same level of success as

1544
01:11:57,240 --> 01:12:00,760
Speaker 1: older generations. It is always in the opposite, always been

1545
01:12:00,800 --> 01:12:02,720
Speaker 1: the aspiration. Of course, you want your kids to do

1546
01:12:02,920 --> 01:12:06,000
Speaker 1: better than you do. So the very fact that we've

1547
01:12:06,040 --> 01:12:10,160
Speaker 1: lowered our goals to be like maybe one day, by

1548
01:12:10,160 --> 01:12:12,799
Speaker 1: the age of like forty five, you'll have a shot

1549
01:12:12,840 --> 01:12:15,280
Speaker 1: of achieving what your boomer.

1550
01:12:15,160 --> 01:12:17,200
Speaker 5: Parents and grandparents were able to achieve.

1551
01:12:17,360 --> 01:12:20,120
Speaker 1: Like, that's a sad statement in and of itself, but

1552
01:12:20,680 --> 01:12:23,799
Speaker 1: I also think, you know, part of what is missed

1553
01:12:23,880 --> 01:12:27,879
Speaker 1: in this analysis is how much the landscape has changed

1554
01:12:28,000 --> 01:12:30,719
Speaker 1: in terms of as you're pointing to Emily, like housing

1555
01:12:30,760 --> 01:12:34,360
Speaker 1: is wildly unaffordable. So those milestones in terms of home

1556
01:12:34,360 --> 01:12:37,599
Speaker 1: ownership get pushed back, which means that you have many

1557
01:12:37,600 --> 01:12:41,240
Speaker 1: fewer years of like building wealth as a homeowner, So

1558
01:12:41,280 --> 01:12:44,679
Speaker 1: that gets pushed back. Since you don't have that ability

1559
01:12:44,720 --> 01:12:47,360
Speaker 1: to own a home and be financially stable and secure,

1560
01:12:47,640 --> 01:12:50,759
Speaker 1: you wait to get married, you wait to have kids.

1561
01:12:51,280 --> 01:12:56,800
Speaker 1: Healthcare has become wildly more unaffordable, education wildly more unaffordable.

1562
01:12:56,840 --> 01:12:59,160
Speaker 1: So all of those sort of bedrock pieces of a

1563
01:12:59,160 --> 01:13:03,560
Speaker 1: middle class life life have become so much more expensive

1564
01:13:03,880 --> 01:13:06,920
Speaker 1: way before we started talking about inflation, and some of

1565
01:13:06,960 --> 01:13:10,559
Speaker 1: those pieces are not really reflected in this analysis that

1566
01:13:10,640 --> 01:13:12,759
Speaker 1: make up like how do you just have a stable

1567
01:13:12,800 --> 01:13:15,760
Speaker 1: middle class life? So I also think, you know, the

1568
01:13:15,800 --> 01:13:19,000
Speaker 1: picture is very different for younger millennials versus older millennials,

1569
01:13:19,040 --> 01:13:20,719
Speaker 1: and so the data is also a little.

1570
01:13:20,479 --> 01:13:21,960
Speaker 5: Bit cherry picked.

1571
01:13:22,000 --> 01:13:27,000
Speaker 1: They say the typical millennial earns between fifty two thousand

1572
01:13:27,000 --> 01:13:29,840
Speaker 1: and sixty two thousand a year, but again that really

1573
01:13:29,880 --> 01:13:32,640
Speaker 1: depends on whether you are at the upper end of

1574
01:13:32,680 --> 01:13:36,080
Speaker 1: that age spectrum or the lower end. And overall, I

1575
01:13:36,080 --> 01:13:38,519
Speaker 1: think you have a generation that has just been made

1576
01:13:38,680 --> 01:13:41,960
Speaker 1: so much more precarious by the fact that some of

1577
01:13:42,000 --> 01:13:45,360
Speaker 1: these core pieces of a stable and thriving life have

1578
01:13:45,479 --> 01:13:48,439
Speaker 1: become so unattainable. And we see the way that the

1579
01:13:48,800 --> 01:13:51,200
Speaker 1: life milestones get pushed back and back and back, and

1580
01:13:51,479 --> 01:13:53,519
Speaker 1: sometimes that get sold to us as like, oh, that's

1581
01:13:53,560 --> 01:13:55,320
Speaker 1: just the way the kids want to live these days.

1582
01:13:55,640 --> 01:13:57,559
Speaker 1: But then you go and ask women like, okay, but

1583
01:13:57,600 --> 01:13:59,360
Speaker 1: how many kids did you actually want to have? And

1584
01:13:59,400 --> 01:14:01,760
Speaker 1: it's more than they were able to have. And you

1585
01:14:01,760 --> 01:14:04,960
Speaker 1: can see this isn't because of some life choice, it's

1586
01:14:05,000 --> 01:14:07,599
Speaker 1: because of the economic circumstances that were forced on them.

1587
01:14:07,880 --> 01:14:11,400
Speaker 1: I will say, though, they point to data from twenty

1588
01:14:11,439 --> 01:14:16,400
Speaker 1: sixteen that showed millennials way further behind where boomers and

1589
01:14:16,439 --> 01:14:19,000
Speaker 1: Gen X were at their age, and there seems to

1590
01:14:19,040 --> 01:14:20,880
Speaker 1: have been some catch up over the years. And I

1591
01:14:20,880 --> 01:14:24,200
Speaker 1: do think part of what happened with the pandemic recovery

1592
01:14:24,240 --> 01:14:28,000
Speaker 1: programs is it did really help. It helped a lot

1593
01:14:28,000 --> 01:14:30,160
Speaker 1: of millennials. It helped a lot of people who were

1594
01:14:30,200 --> 01:14:32,080
Speaker 1: at the lower end of the income spectrum. They were

1595
01:14:32,080 --> 01:14:34,160
Speaker 1: able to save a little bit of money, they were

1596
01:14:34,200 --> 01:14:36,120
Speaker 1: able to.

1597
01:14:35,439 --> 01:14:37,080
Speaker 5: Change jobs, move locations.

1598
01:14:37,320 --> 01:14:39,320
Speaker 1: Remote work has made it possible to live in more

1599
01:14:39,360 --> 01:14:42,200
Speaker 1: affordable locales so that they can also save more money

1600
01:14:42,280 --> 01:14:44,760
Speaker 1: or have just better quality and balance of life. So

1601
01:14:44,840 --> 01:14:47,599
Speaker 1: I do think that some of those programs have continued

1602
01:14:47,600 --> 01:14:51,519
Speaker 1: to contribute positively to the life trajectory, particularly of young people.

1603
01:14:51,600 --> 01:14:53,880
Speaker 4: And I think that speaks to where some of this

1604
01:14:54,200 --> 01:14:55,640
Speaker 4: is very polarized.

1605
01:14:55,680 --> 01:14:57,600
Speaker 3: Like the pandemic economy.

1606
01:14:57,160 --> 01:15:00,439
Speaker 4: Was great for some people overall millennials included, and really

1607
01:15:00,479 --> 01:15:02,920
Speaker 4: bad for some people overall millennials included.

1608
01:15:02,960 --> 01:15:03,919
Speaker 3: And that's similar.

1609
01:15:04,000 --> 01:15:07,000
Speaker 4: I mean, the article talks about obviously millennials, many of

1610
01:15:07,000 --> 01:15:11,080
Speaker 4: whom graduated as the Great Recession was either about to

1611
01:15:11,120 --> 01:15:14,800
Speaker 4: happen or had just happened, and that's I mean, that

1612
01:15:15,160 --> 01:15:17,080
Speaker 4: put a lot of people off on a very bad foot,

1613
01:15:17,120 --> 01:15:19,719
Speaker 4: and they've been trying to And that's also Americans in general.

1614
01:15:19,800 --> 01:15:22,400
Speaker 4: Net worth has not recovered from the Great Recession. Still,

1615
01:15:23,120 --> 01:15:25,000
Speaker 4: it is still not where it was before, which is

1616
01:15:25,040 --> 01:15:27,880
Speaker 4: I think a huge factor underestimated and why people are like, listen,

1617
01:15:27,920 --> 01:15:31,519
Speaker 4: the economy is fine, right, Well, maybe it's fine for

1618
01:15:31,680 --> 01:15:34,559
Speaker 4: Jamie Diamond and his friends, but it's not as.

1619
01:15:34,360 --> 01:15:36,240
Speaker 3: Good as it was. People are not in as good

1620
01:15:36,240 --> 01:15:37,360
Speaker 3: of a position as it was.

1621
01:15:37,600 --> 01:15:40,599
Speaker 4: To your point about like why we're celebrating millennials catching

1622
01:15:40,680 --> 01:15:44,479
Speaker 4: up as opposed to exceeding where everyone else was. And

1623
01:15:44,520 --> 01:15:48,479
Speaker 4: I think it's really interesting to see libertarians downplay the

1624
01:15:48,560 --> 01:15:51,120
Speaker 4: level of student debt people graduate with, because so much

1625
01:15:51,120 --> 01:15:53,439
Speaker 4: of that has to do with government subsidies putting the

1626
01:15:53,479 --> 01:15:56,840
Speaker 4: price of our college educations wildly out of whack. So

1627
01:15:56,920 --> 01:15:59,360
Speaker 4: it's not even just that people are in debt for

1628
01:15:59,600 --> 01:16:02,840
Speaker 4: a one wonderful, fantastic, great education. It's that because the

1629
01:16:02,880 --> 01:16:06,599
Speaker 4: government subsidies have flooded, you were going forty thousand dollars

1630
01:16:06,600 --> 01:16:09,840
Speaker 4: in debt on average for a terrible education that is

1631
01:16:09,880 --> 01:16:13,200
Speaker 4: like led by all of these bureaucrats that now outnumbered

1632
01:16:13,240 --> 01:16:14,600
Speaker 4: teachers on college campuses.

1633
01:16:14,640 --> 01:16:16,599
Speaker 3: So it's just rich to see that.

1634
01:16:16,640 --> 01:16:22,040
Speaker 4: Downplaying happen because that's never ever been how we approach generational.

1635
01:16:21,479 --> 01:16:22,679
Speaker 3: Growth in the United States.

1636
01:16:22,720 --> 01:16:26,200
Speaker 4: And it's just sad to see us cheerleading and picking

1637
01:16:26,280 --> 01:16:28,719
Speaker 4: numbers where you say, oh, the average millennial is married

1638
01:16:28,920 --> 01:16:31,320
Speaker 4: and they have kids, and it's like they probably got

1639
01:16:31,320 --> 01:16:34,320
Speaker 4: married way later than they wanted to, and they may

1640
01:16:34,360 --> 01:16:36,519
Speaker 4: have had a whole lot of emotional scarring on the way.

1641
01:16:36,800 --> 01:16:39,320
Speaker 4: They probably wanted to have more kids on average. We

1642
01:16:39,360 --> 01:16:41,600
Speaker 4: know that's true of women than they ended up having,

1643
01:16:41,800 --> 01:16:43,920
Speaker 4: and even if they own a house, they might not

1644
01:16:44,000 --> 01:16:46,240
Speaker 4: be really happy with the house that they owned.

1645
01:16:46,360 --> 01:16:47,000
Speaker 3: That did happen.

1646
01:16:47,040 --> 01:16:50,200
Speaker 4: With the pandemic, you had housing prices go down. A

1647
01:16:50,240 --> 01:16:52,519
Speaker 4: lot of millennials take advantage of it. But now those

1648
01:16:52,520 --> 01:16:54,599
Speaker 4: millennials who didn't take advantage of it because they were

1649
01:16:54,600 --> 01:16:57,080
Speaker 4: you know, twenty three or whatever. I guess maybe twenty five.

1650
01:16:58,080 --> 01:16:59,320
Speaker 3: Good luck, good luck to them.

1651
01:16:59,400 --> 01:17:00,599
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's true.

1652
01:17:00,640 --> 01:17:04,200
Speaker 1: And just to wrap this up from the libertarian perspective,

1653
01:17:04,200 --> 01:17:05,600
Speaker 1: I mean, if you're in that kind of debt, like

1654
01:17:05,640 --> 01:17:08,879
Speaker 1: you're not free, like talk about like freedom and ability

1655
01:17:08,920 --> 01:17:11,639
Speaker 1: to chart your own course and make your own path.

1656
01:17:11,920 --> 01:17:15,439
Speaker 1: And that's reflected in the numbers of young people who

1657
01:17:15,479 --> 01:17:19,759
Speaker 1: say that that debt burden, specifically from student debt, keeps

1658
01:17:19,760 --> 01:17:22,920
Speaker 1: them from launching the businesses and becoming the entrepreneurs that

1659
01:17:22,920 --> 01:17:24,519
Speaker 1: they want to be because they got to have that

1660
01:17:24,520 --> 01:17:26,880
Speaker 1: steady check to be able to make sure they're still

1661
01:17:26,920 --> 01:17:29,680
Speaker 1: servicing that debt. So in a very real way, it

1662
01:17:29,720 --> 01:17:32,320
Speaker 1: really limits people's choices and what they're able to do

1663
01:17:32,680 --> 01:17:37,280
Speaker 1: with their lives. So to listen, I certainly support debt cancelation.

1664
01:17:37,320 --> 01:17:39,080
Speaker 1: You don't have to support that, but you can't pretend

1665
01:17:39,080 --> 01:17:41,120
Speaker 1: that this isn't a crisis and you know, just wish

1666
01:17:41,200 --> 01:17:42,920
Speaker 1: your way out of it and not have some sort

1667
01:17:42,920 --> 01:17:46,800
Speaker 1: of a solution for what is hobbling now gen z

1668
01:17:47,040 --> 01:17:48,719
Speaker 1: and millennials.

1669
01:17:48,280 --> 01:17:50,639
Speaker 3: And what a waste of energy to play semantics with the.

1670
01:17:50,560 --> 01:17:53,879
Speaker 1: Word absolutely yeah, absolutely can't deny reality.

1671
01:17:54,760 --> 01:17:55,519
Speaker 5: So this is an.

1672
01:17:55,360 --> 01:17:57,360
Speaker 1: Interesting one I wanted to get Emily's take on, so

1673
01:17:57,479 --> 01:18:02,479
Speaker 1: Ted Cruz got himself in some water for what what

1674
01:18:02,560 --> 01:18:04,880
Speaker 1: I considered to be a rare w here.

1675
01:18:04,920 --> 01:18:05,960
Speaker 5: Put this up on the screen.

1676
01:18:06,760 --> 01:18:11,000
Speaker 1: He tweeted out about this anti gay Uganda law that

1677
01:18:11,160 --> 01:18:15,880
Speaker 1: is incredibly just brutally punitive. He says, this Uganda law

1678
01:18:15,960 --> 01:18:20,320
Speaker 1: is horrific and wrong. Any law criminalizing homosexuality or imposing

1679
01:18:20,360 --> 01:18:24,040
Speaker 1: the death penalty for aggravated homosexuality is grotesque.

1680
01:18:23,600 --> 01:18:24,520
Speaker 5: And an abomination.

1681
01:18:25,160 --> 01:18:28,559
Speaker 1: All civilized nations should join together in condemning this human

1682
01:18:28,640 --> 01:18:31,840
Speaker 1: rights abuse hashtag LGBTQ.

1683
01:18:32,640 --> 01:18:33,360
Speaker 5: He took a.

1684
01:18:33,360 --> 01:18:37,760
Speaker 1: Lot of heat over this from you know, fellow conservatives

1685
01:18:37,920 --> 01:18:41,120
Speaker 1: and from some of his base, but he stuck to

1686
01:18:41,160 --> 01:18:42,920
Speaker 1: his guns. Put this up on the screen. This is

1687
01:18:42,920 --> 01:18:45,960
Speaker 1: from media to say Ted Cruz doubles down on condemnation

1688
01:18:46,080 --> 01:18:50,400
Speaker 1: of barbaric ugand in law criminalizing homosexuality after being compared

1689
01:18:50,439 --> 01:18:54,000
Speaker 1: to bud Light on Memorial Day. They say that he

1690
01:18:54,280 --> 01:18:56,680
Speaker 1: tweeted that New York Times article with the tweet that

1691
01:18:56,720 --> 01:19:00,000
Speaker 1: I read to you before. One of Cruz's harsh critics

1692
01:19:00,200 --> 01:19:03,599
Speaker 1: was Jenna Ellis, who they described, I think accurately, as

1693
01:19:03,640 --> 01:19:06,880
Speaker 1: the disgraced attorney who assisted Trump in his attempt to

1694
01:19:06,920 --> 01:19:08,559
Speaker 1: overturn the results of the twenty.

1695
01:19:08,360 --> 01:19:09,559
Speaker 5: Twenty presidential election.

1696
01:19:10,080 --> 01:19:12,640
Speaker 1: She says, you can condemn a law that imposes the

1697
01:19:12,640 --> 01:19:16,480
Speaker 1: death penalty for homosexuality without being pro or LGBTQ.

1698
01:19:17,160 --> 01:19:17,840
Speaker 5: Like bud Light.

1699
01:19:18,200 --> 01:19:21,439
Speaker 1: You should have just said nothing, not this, she continued,

1700
01:19:21,439 --> 01:19:23,920
Speaker 1: for the commenters, I stand with Uganda on this because

1701
01:19:23,960 --> 01:19:27,120
Speaker 1: the definition of aggravated homosexuality subject to the death penalty

1702
01:19:27,400 --> 01:19:30,320
Speaker 1: is raping children. Why would Cruz be against this anyway?

1703
01:19:31,000 --> 01:19:34,880
Speaker 1: He replies, Jenna, Not sure why you're defending this barbaric law.

1704
01:19:35,240 --> 01:19:39,360
Speaker 1: It imposes life imprisonment for consenting adults who engage in

1705
01:19:39,439 --> 01:19:43,599
Speaker 1: gay sex. That is insane, That's ridiculous. I may not

1706
01:19:43,760 --> 01:19:46,800
Speaker 1: agree with their choices, but consenting adults should not go

1707
01:19:46,880 --> 01:19:50,120
Speaker 1: to jail for what they do in their own bedrooms.

1708
01:19:51,000 --> 01:19:54,080
Speaker 1: One thing that this brought to mind for me, Ted

1709
01:19:54,120 --> 01:19:56,880
Speaker 1: Cruz is no hero of like the gay community. He

1710
01:19:57,040 --> 01:20:01,400
Speaker 1: still opposes the a bergafele To vision which made gay

1711
01:20:01,400 --> 01:20:04,639
Speaker 1: marriage legal. He's still opposed to gay marriage. He thinks

1712
01:20:04,680 --> 01:20:07,120
Speaker 1: that decision was wrongly decided. So this is not some

1713
01:20:07,320 --> 01:20:10,560
Speaker 1: like you know, Pride Month, gay ally or champion. He

1714
01:20:10,680 --> 01:20:14,920
Speaker 1: is a gay icon now he is, apparently, but it

1715
01:20:15,320 --> 01:20:17,680
Speaker 1: demonstrated to me, Emily, and I wanted to get your

1716
01:20:17,720 --> 01:20:21,320
Speaker 1: thoughts on this, on how much the landscape had shifted

1717
01:20:21,400 --> 01:20:25,080
Speaker 1: within the Republican Party, because you'll recall back in twenty sixteen,

1718
01:20:25,880 --> 01:20:29,439
Speaker 1: Trump ran and he was okay with gay marriage, and

1719
01:20:29,640 --> 01:20:32,360
Speaker 1: they actually didn't just like, you know, kind of like

1720
01:20:33,000 --> 01:20:36,760
Speaker 1: push that under the rug. They actually sort of celebrated.

1721
01:20:36,880 --> 01:20:39,920
Speaker 1: I remember doing segments with some of his targets who'd

1722
01:20:39,920 --> 01:20:42,240
Speaker 1: be like, this is the most pre pro gay president

1723
01:20:42,280 --> 01:20:44,719
Speaker 1: ever elected. He's the first and this is technically true,

1724
01:20:45,160 --> 01:20:47,920
Speaker 1: the first president to run for the first time supporting

1725
01:20:47,960 --> 01:20:51,519
Speaker 1: gay marriage, because when Obama ran, he was against gay marriage.

1726
01:20:51,560 --> 01:20:53,360
Speaker 5: So they sort of celebrated that.

1727
01:20:53,400 --> 01:20:55,360
Speaker 1: I even saw someone passing around I'm not one hundred

1728
01:20:55,360 --> 01:20:57,240
Speaker 1: percent sure whether this was real or not, but Make

1729
01:20:57,280 --> 01:21:01,000
Speaker 1: America Great Again hats that were like rainbow colors to celebrate,

1730
01:21:01,160 --> 01:21:04,000
Speaker 1: you know, pride. And now if you even come out

1731
01:21:04,040 --> 01:21:09,160
Speaker 1: against a law that is just like insanely horrifically barbaric,

1732
01:21:09,560 --> 01:21:12,759
Speaker 1: you get a huge pile on from the Republican base.

1733
01:21:13,200 --> 01:21:16,879
Speaker 1: So to me, demonstrated the way that the Republican Party

1734
01:21:16,920 --> 01:21:19,640
Speaker 1: has sort of regressed on these issues. And it's no

1735
01:21:19,720 --> 01:21:22,360
Speaker 1: longer okay to even just be fine with like the

1736
01:21:22,400 --> 01:21:23,479
Speaker 1: gay marriage status quo.

1737
01:21:23,640 --> 01:21:25,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's actually so, this is sort of a stupid

1738
01:21:25,840 --> 01:21:28,080
Speaker 4: conflict because I think it was mostly like media. I

1739
01:21:28,120 --> 01:21:30,120
Speaker 4: picked up on it because Jenna Ellis, who I don't

1740
01:21:30,120 --> 01:21:32,800
Speaker 4: think is super popular among the Republican base, started going

1741
01:21:32,840 --> 01:21:34,880
Speaker 4: in on Ted Cruz. I don't think she even knew

1742
01:21:35,160 --> 01:21:39,240
Speaker 4: that the law was broader than this aggregate aggravated homosexuality question,

1743
01:21:39,280 --> 01:21:42,240
Speaker 4: which is why Cruz comes back and says it calls

1744
01:21:42,240 --> 01:21:44,320
Speaker 4: for life imprisonment. This is per the New York Times,

1745
01:21:44,520 --> 01:21:47,400
Speaker 4: for anyone who engages in gay sex. Anyone who tries

1746
01:21:47,439 --> 01:21:50,160
Speaker 4: to have same sex relations could be liable for up

1747
01:21:50,200 --> 01:21:54,479
Speaker 4: to a decade in prison. The aggravated homosexuality thing is

1748
01:21:54,520 --> 01:21:57,280
Speaker 4: in the bill. It decrees the death penalty for anyone

1749
01:21:57,280 --> 01:21:59,680
Speaker 4: convicted of it, and that is defined as acts of

1750
01:21:59,680 --> 01:22:02,479
Speaker 4: same sex relations with children or disabled people, those carried

1751
01:22:02,479 --> 01:22:05,320
Speaker 4: out under threat or while someone is unconscious, and the

1752
01:22:05,360 --> 01:22:08,800
Speaker 4: offensive attempt at aggravated homosexuality. That is a hell of

1753
01:22:08,840 --> 01:22:12,040
Speaker 4: a law carries a sentence of up to fourteen years.

1754
01:22:12,920 --> 01:22:15,400
Speaker 4: They added they went back and added language to make

1755
01:22:15,400 --> 01:22:18,000
Speaker 4: it clear that anyone suspected of being a homosexual would

1756
01:22:18,000 --> 01:22:20,960
Speaker 4: not be punished unless they engaged in same sex relations.

1757
01:22:21,040 --> 01:22:24,559
Speaker 4: The New York Times continued, and again, here's what's really

1758
01:22:24,560 --> 01:22:28,640
Speaker 4: interesting about that is Jenna Ellis says, you can support

1759
01:22:29,280 --> 01:22:30,600
Speaker 4: or you can oppose.

1760
01:22:30,240 --> 01:22:33,000
Speaker 3: The Uganda law without coming out and talking about it.

1761
01:22:33,240 --> 01:22:33,519
Speaker 5: Right.

1762
01:22:33,600 --> 01:22:38,479
Speaker 4: It's so interesting because I think post Trump conservatives and

1763
01:22:38,520 --> 01:22:42,920
Speaker 4: even non conservatives, this like the kind of backlash people

1764
01:22:43,120 --> 01:22:46,240
Speaker 4: who find themselves in this like anti woke base, they

1765
01:22:46,280 --> 01:22:49,360
Speaker 4: feel as though it's like a it's a signal. Like

1766
01:22:49,360 --> 01:22:52,559
Speaker 4: people are really sensitive to these signals now, because if

1767
01:22:52,600 --> 01:22:55,759
Speaker 4: you signal opposition to it's like, why are you bothering

1768
01:22:55,800 --> 01:22:58,920
Speaker 4: spending your time on this when you know you could

1769
01:22:58,960 --> 01:23:01,280
Speaker 4: have sent a tweet You used the time you spent

1770
01:23:01,360 --> 01:23:03,360
Speaker 4: on this sending a tweet about bud Light or sending

1771
01:23:03,360 --> 01:23:08,519
Speaker 4: a tweet about the radical parts of the transgender agenda

1772
01:23:08,680 --> 01:23:11,960
Speaker 4: in the United States. Why would you weigh in on this?

1773
01:23:12,080 --> 01:23:15,519
Speaker 4: And it'say, well, this is like the United States actually

1774
01:23:15,560 --> 01:23:18,840
Speaker 4: does have leverage on these questions of human rights. Yeah,

1775
01:23:18,920 --> 01:23:22,520
Speaker 4: sitting Senator, it's a law that calls for life imprisonment

1776
01:23:22,600 --> 01:23:26,160
Speaker 4: for anyone who engages engage that exit. It's it's a

1777
01:23:26,240 --> 01:23:28,760
Speaker 4: serious thing. And so for Jenna Ellis, I think to

1778
01:23:28,960 --> 01:23:31,160
Speaker 4: kind of reflexively where she didn't even seem to know

1779
01:23:31,479 --> 01:23:34,360
Speaker 4: the contours of the law. Kick back, I think speaks

1780
01:23:34,400 --> 01:23:37,759
Speaker 4: to how bisceral this stuff has gotten for Republicans where

1781
01:23:38,040 --> 01:23:41,280
Speaker 4: you and for conservatives where you are, like, just to

1782
01:23:41,400 --> 01:23:46,080
Speaker 4: see somebody way in and use the hashtag LGBTQ feels

1783
01:23:46,120 --> 01:23:49,520
Speaker 4: like a betrayal because they're so sensitive now.

1784
01:23:49,280 --> 01:23:51,000
Speaker 3: To being betrayed.

1785
01:23:51,439 --> 01:23:54,519
Speaker 4: Doesn't make it right as an explanation whatsoever, but I

1786
01:23:54,520 --> 01:23:56,040
Speaker 4: think people should be aware this is going to be

1787
01:23:56,080 --> 01:23:58,639
Speaker 4: a driving influence in our politics. It's why I think

1788
01:23:58,680 --> 01:24:02,040
Speaker 4: the boycott's of Tar and bud Light have worked, because

1789
01:24:02,880 --> 01:24:06,120
Speaker 4: bud Light was about like one dumb influencer can and

1790
01:24:06,680 --> 01:24:10,360
Speaker 4: what the marketing executive had said on like zoom calls

1791
01:24:10,400 --> 01:24:13,240
Speaker 4: and all of that stuff. It feels like a betrayal

1792
01:24:13,280 --> 01:24:16,280
Speaker 4: of people who always thought bud Light was like, you know,

1793
01:24:16,320 --> 01:24:18,719
Speaker 4: something that you could drink in Middle America, be fine

1794
01:24:18,760 --> 01:24:21,160
Speaker 4: with and they didn't hate you. But as soon as

1795
01:24:21,240 --> 01:24:23,920
Speaker 4: you know you just have one little signal, it's just

1796
01:24:24,000 --> 01:24:24,759
Speaker 4: really visceral.

1797
01:24:24,800 --> 01:24:27,120
Speaker 1: Now, well, they're going after Chick fil A for having

1798
01:24:27,160 --> 01:24:29,160
Speaker 1: a diversity and inclusion.

1799
01:24:29,120 --> 01:24:31,040
Speaker 3: Years old, years old news about.

1800
01:24:30,840 --> 01:24:35,000
Speaker 1: Chick fil a right, and apparently Ford they dug up

1801
01:24:35,040 --> 01:24:38,560
Speaker 1: some like two year old pride related Ford commercial.

1802
01:24:39,000 --> 01:24:39,840
Speaker 5: And this is why I'm.

1803
01:24:39,680 --> 01:24:42,400
Speaker 1: Saying like it feels, I don't think it just feels.

1804
01:24:42,439 --> 01:24:46,960
Speaker 1: It is a regression because these ads, this corporate virtue

1805
01:24:46,960 --> 01:24:50,640
Speaker 1: signaling stuff went largely unnoticed and uncommented on and was

1806
01:24:50,720 --> 01:24:54,000
Speaker 1: no big deal, and people were generally like accepted that

1807
01:24:54,160 --> 01:24:56,000
Speaker 1: gay marriage was the law of land. And still I

1808
01:24:56,000 --> 01:24:59,920
Speaker 1: think if you if you pull Americans, overwhelmingly people are comfortable.

1809
01:24:59,479 --> 01:25:03,640
Speaker 5: With gay marriage. So for a really like banal.

1810
01:25:03,320 --> 01:25:07,559
Speaker 1: Tweet about it, just like objectively horrific law in Uganda,

1811
01:25:07,960 --> 01:25:11,880
Speaker 1: to spark this kind of conservative backlash, I think it's

1812
01:25:11,920 --> 01:25:12,360
Speaker 1: really telling.

1813
01:25:12,439 --> 01:25:13,439
Speaker 5: And we talked last.

1814
01:25:13,200 --> 01:25:16,879
Speaker 1: Time about you know, there was a sort of revelation

1815
01:25:17,000 --> 01:25:20,440
Speaker 1: that there's this The way conservatives have frame their concerns

1816
01:25:20,520 --> 01:25:23,759
Speaker 1: around trans issues has primarily been around like kids.

1817
01:25:23,920 --> 01:25:25,400
Speaker 5: You know. Even the target thing.

1818
01:25:25,400 --> 01:25:28,960
Speaker 1: Was like, oh, these bathing suits, so the tuck friendly

1819
01:25:29,040 --> 01:25:31,120
Speaker 1: bathing suits are close to kids stuff, So this is

1820
01:25:31,160 --> 01:25:32,679
Speaker 1: really all about protecting the kids.

1821
01:25:33,240 --> 01:25:35,040
Speaker 5: But when you see this kind of backlash to.

1822
01:25:35,000 --> 01:25:38,519
Speaker 1: Even just like people being gay and living their lives

1823
01:25:39,280 --> 01:25:41,880
Speaker 1: and being okay with that. You can see it has

1824
01:25:41,920 --> 01:25:45,559
Speaker 1: gone much further than wherever the original locus of concern

1825
01:25:45,760 --> 01:25:47,960
Speaker 1: ultimately was. And I think it ties in also with

1826
01:25:48,040 --> 01:25:53,360
Speaker 1: abortion conversation because there's also more sensitivity now to with

1827
01:25:54,000 --> 01:25:57,240
Speaker 1: row being overturned, to rights that have been sort of

1828
01:25:57,280 --> 01:26:02,120
Speaker 1: taken for granted being taken away, and Rowe explicitly in

1829
01:26:02,280 --> 01:26:04,960
Speaker 1: some of the language of the decision that Dobb's decision

1830
01:26:05,120 --> 01:26:07,479
Speaker 1: opened the door for, Hey, maybe we should take another

1831
01:26:07,479 --> 01:26:09,800
Speaker 1: look at Obergefel. Maybe some of these things that were

1832
01:26:09,840 --> 01:26:12,280
Speaker 1: decided should be rolled back. And Ted Cruz was on

1833
01:26:12,320 --> 01:26:14,880
Speaker 1: the side of, yes, they should be. But I think

1834
01:26:14,920 --> 01:26:17,519
Speaker 1: you're talking about you know, Conservatis feel more sensitive about

1835
01:26:17,520 --> 01:26:17,840
Speaker 1: these things.

1836
01:26:17,880 --> 01:26:18,919
Speaker 5: It feels like a betrayal.

1837
01:26:19,320 --> 01:26:21,919
Speaker 1: I think for a lot of not just like Democrats

1838
01:26:22,000 --> 01:26:26,240
Speaker 1: or liberals or just like normal Americans. The specter of

1839
01:26:26,600 --> 01:26:30,559
Speaker 1: things that we took for granted may regress, may roll back.

1840
01:26:30,680 --> 01:26:33,200
Speaker 1: I think that feels very visceral, and there's a real

1841
01:26:33,439 --> 01:26:35,080
Speaker 1: heightened sensitivity to that as well.

1842
01:26:35,120 --> 01:26:37,280
Speaker 4: I think it's pushing a button that's going to be critical,

1843
01:26:37,640 --> 01:26:39,960
Speaker 4: that's going to be like a fault line. Scager has

1844
01:26:39,960 --> 01:26:42,640
Speaker 4: been really smart in I think outlining the kind of

1845
01:26:42,680 --> 01:26:47,640
Speaker 4: barstool conservative faction of Republican voters. And when I was

1846
01:26:48,000 --> 01:26:50,320
Speaker 4: doing reporting out in loud In County talking to parents

1847
01:26:50,360 --> 01:26:54,920
Speaker 4: that were part of the like Youngkin Revolution Virginia.

1848
01:26:55,560 --> 01:26:57,200
Speaker 1: So it's very funny to think of that guy as

1849
01:26:57,200 --> 01:26:58,519
Speaker 1: a revolutionary like.

1850
01:26:59,000 --> 01:27:02,559
Speaker 4: Mister gunnvest in my ad Equity Carlisle group, just a

1851
01:27:02,600 --> 01:27:06,479
Speaker 4: real revolutionary but radical. A lot of those folks never

1852
01:27:06,560 --> 01:27:09,400
Speaker 4: vote a Republican, didn't usually vote, definitely would fall into like,

1853
01:27:09,880 --> 01:27:12,559
Speaker 4: I don't know, maybe the barstool conservative camp, like people

1854
01:27:12,600 --> 01:27:14,559
Speaker 4: who were brought over because of the excess of some

1855
01:27:14,600 --> 01:27:16,640
Speaker 4: of these cultural issues. That means they're going to be

1856
01:27:16,680 --> 01:27:23,240
Speaker 4: intention with the moral crusaders, the real conservative moral crusaders

1857
01:27:23,840 --> 01:27:27,439
Speaker 4: that they have made, you know, an alliance with at

1858
01:27:27,439 --> 01:27:29,920
Speaker 4: the moment to sort of get Glenn Younkin elected or

1859
01:27:29,920 --> 01:27:32,559
Speaker 4: maybe even to get Ron DeSantis elected. But when push

1860
01:27:32,600 --> 01:27:35,920
Speaker 4: comes to shoves, specifically that question of like same sex

1861
01:27:35,920 --> 01:27:38,360
Speaker 4: marriage was going to be a huge dividing point. Abortion,

1862
01:27:38,520 --> 01:27:40,759
Speaker 4: same sex marriage, those are going to be huge dividing

1863
01:27:40,760 --> 01:27:41,720
Speaker 4: points ultimately.

1864
01:27:41,720 --> 01:27:42,240
Speaker 3: I think if.

1865
01:27:42,160 --> 01:27:46,200
Speaker 4: Republicans keep winning elections like Younkin and DeSantis, because that

1866
01:27:46,360 --> 01:27:49,599
Speaker 4: is a very bitter dividing line between those two camps,

1867
01:27:49,680 --> 01:27:52,479
Speaker 4: and I think, I mean, I mostly just saw John

1868
01:27:52,560 --> 01:27:53,400
Speaker 4: Ellis weigh in on this.

1869
01:27:53,520 --> 01:27:53,800
Speaker 3: I didn't.

1870
01:27:53,840 --> 01:27:55,920
Speaker 4: I don't know that I saw other people pilot Ted Cruz,

1871
01:27:55,920 --> 01:27:57,040
Speaker 4: although I think people were, like.

1872
01:27:57,040 --> 01:27:59,240
Speaker 5: I saw a lot in the comments. I saw a

1873
01:27:59,240 --> 01:27:59,960
Speaker 5: lot in the comments.

1874
01:28:00,120 --> 01:28:02,759
Speaker 4: That's interesting because I think it speaks to being visceral

1875
01:28:02,840 --> 01:28:07,160
Speaker 4: like and that might not be productive politically for Republicans

1876
01:28:07,200 --> 01:28:11,320
Speaker 4: to like start boycotting Chick fil A and to poll

1877
01:28:11,400 --> 01:28:13,599
Speaker 4: on Ted Cruz and all of this stuff. I mean,

1878
01:28:13,760 --> 01:28:16,840
Speaker 4: people were even going after the show The Chosen, which

1879
01:28:16,880 --> 01:28:22,800
Speaker 4: is hugely popular Christian sort of brings to life and

1880
01:28:22,880 --> 01:28:25,439
Speaker 4: the sort of prestige TV model, the story of the

1881
01:28:25,479 --> 01:28:28,479
Speaker 4: Gospels and is by uh, the son of the guy

1882
01:28:28,479 --> 01:28:30,559
Speaker 4: who did left behind and all of that.

1883
01:28:31,360 --> 01:28:32,639
Speaker 3: It really like.

1884
01:28:32,600 --> 01:28:35,840
Speaker 4: People going after that because I think, like reportedly somebody

1885
01:28:35,880 --> 01:28:38,200
Speaker 4: had a Pride flag on set, and it just speaks

1886
01:28:38,240 --> 01:28:41,759
Speaker 4: to like people do not Republicans feel betrayed by bringing

1887
01:28:41,800 --> 01:28:44,400
Speaker 4: it full circle Kevin McCarthy. They feel betrayed by the

1888
01:28:44,400 --> 01:28:47,200
Speaker 4: corporate class, they who used to be their allies and

1889
01:28:47,280 --> 01:28:50,519
Speaker 4: tax cut fights, and so it's just going to become really,

1890
01:28:50,520 --> 01:28:54,320
Speaker 4: really reflexive and visceral, and that may not be productive ultimately.

1891
01:28:54,400 --> 01:28:57,559
Speaker 1: Well, I know a lot of Republicans, chiefly Ronda stand

1892
01:28:57,600 --> 01:29:00,400
Speaker 1: as they talk about the woke mind virus. Me, this

1893
01:29:00,479 --> 01:29:03,479
Speaker 1: is representative of the anti woke mind virus where even

1894
01:29:03,680 --> 01:29:07,200
Speaker 1: someone you know, something that should not be controversial of

1895
01:29:07,280 --> 01:29:10,200
Speaker 1: even just signaling any kind of support for yeah, it's

1896
01:29:10,200 --> 01:29:13,839
Speaker 1: okay for people to be gay, triggers this intense reaction.

1897
01:29:14,160 --> 01:29:17,439
Speaker 1: Or a pride display at a department store, or a

1898
01:29:17,479 --> 01:29:22,000
Speaker 1: two year old pride commercial, or a diversity officer at

1899
01:29:22,000 --> 01:29:25,880
Speaker 1: some major corporation, it becomes like, oh my god, and

1900
01:29:25,920 --> 01:29:28,679
Speaker 1: you start engaging in this like goofy, over the top

1901
01:29:28,840 --> 01:29:31,320
Speaker 1: like behavior with regard to it, which is the polar

1902
01:29:31,560 --> 01:29:33,559
Speaker 1: you know, it's like the mirror image of the people

1903
01:29:33,600 --> 01:29:36,120
Speaker 1: who go way too far in the woke direction are

1904
01:29:36,200 --> 01:29:39,160
Speaker 1: constantly policing. It's a similar form of sort of like

1905
01:29:39,520 --> 01:29:43,839
Speaker 1: desire to censor and desire to control everything, and tendency

1906
01:29:43,840 --> 01:29:46,920
Speaker 1: towards authoritarian behavior that leads to, you know, we got

1907
01:29:46,960 --> 01:29:48,360
Speaker 1: to get in there and ban the books. We got

1908
01:29:48,360 --> 01:29:50,960
Speaker 1: to pass laws against protest. We got to make sure

1909
01:29:51,080 --> 01:29:53,240
Speaker 1: that you know, we have it legislated what things are

1910
01:29:53,240 --> 01:29:55,200
Speaker 1: allowed to be said, and what things are not allowed

1911
01:29:55,240 --> 01:29:57,200
Speaker 1: to be said. So I think there's sort of like

1912
01:29:57,280 --> 01:30:01,559
Speaker 1: mirror images of the same general like instinct and impulse

1913
01:30:01,560 --> 01:30:02,160
Speaker 1: in politics.

1914
01:30:02,240 --> 01:30:03,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, and tribalism.

1915
01:30:03,240 --> 01:30:05,679
Speaker 4: I agree with that totally, and I think we'll see

1916
01:30:05,760 --> 01:30:06,960
Speaker 4: only more of it in the future.

1917
01:30:09,800 --> 01:30:11,120
Speaker 5: All right, Emily, what are you looking at?

1918
01:30:11,320 --> 01:30:15,800
Speaker 4: Renown novelist James Comy responded to some questions about the

1919
01:30:15,880 --> 01:30:21,000
Speaker 4: Durham Report on MSNBC Tuesday, and yes, I said renowned novelists.

1920
01:30:21,000 --> 01:30:24,320
Speaker 4: He was out promoting his new novel and in the

1921
01:30:24,360 --> 01:30:27,679
Speaker 4: course of this promotion he was interrupted by some tough

1922
01:30:27,760 --> 01:30:30,759
Speaker 4: questions that should have been probably much tougher by Jonathan

1923
01:30:30,840 --> 01:30:35,439
Speaker 4: Lamire and Willie geist Over on Morning Joe. It's pretty interesting,

1924
01:30:35,520 --> 01:30:38,519
Speaker 4: actually how he responded to these questions because Comy, remember,

1925
01:30:38,800 --> 01:30:41,960
Speaker 4: actually declined to cooperate with the Durham Report. He was

1926
01:30:42,000 --> 01:30:46,080
Speaker 4: not interviewed by John Durham. And he gets some questions

1927
01:30:46,120 --> 01:30:48,880
Speaker 4: from Geiston Lamire that push a little bit on this

1928
01:30:49,080 --> 01:30:52,759
Speaker 4: and says right off the bat here that Republican calls

1929
01:30:52,800 --> 01:30:57,120
Speaker 4: to defund the FBI or take a sledgehammer or blowtors

1930
01:30:57,200 --> 01:31:00,439
Speaker 4: whatever as they say to the FBI. Quote just a

1931
01:31:00,479 --> 01:31:04,120
Speaker 4: continuing series of attacks on the rule of law. They're

1932
01:31:04,160 --> 01:31:07,479
Speaker 4: taking a flamethrower to the FBI and DOJ because it's

1933
01:31:07,520 --> 01:31:10,240
Speaker 4: a threat. That's really rich coming from James Comy. And

1934
01:31:10,280 --> 01:31:12,400
Speaker 4: this is exactly why I wanted to talk about it today,

1935
01:31:12,439 --> 01:31:18,800
Speaker 4: because the more anti populists criticize populists for legitimate points

1936
01:31:18,840 --> 01:31:23,320
Speaker 4: of argumentation and legitimate gripes with the political establishment, the more.

1937
01:31:23,160 --> 01:31:24,760
Speaker 3: Populism they're going to get.

1938
01:31:24,800 --> 01:31:29,000
Speaker 4: It's remarkably counterproductive and self serving and also just plainly stupid,

1939
01:31:29,320 --> 01:31:30,200
Speaker 4: bad for the country.

1940
01:31:30,200 --> 01:31:31,360
Speaker 3: But to hear James.

1941
01:31:31,080 --> 01:31:35,240
Speaker 4: Comy say that the FBI and DOJ is a threat,

1942
01:31:35,520 --> 01:31:38,400
Speaker 4: It's like, yes, absolutely, that is a threat to a

1943
01:31:38,479 --> 01:31:39,920
Speaker 4: duly elected president.

1944
01:31:39,600 --> 01:31:41,840
Speaker 3: Of the United States. That would be Donald.

1945
01:31:41,560 --> 01:31:45,400
Speaker 4: Trump, who you targeted by breaking the rule of law,

1946
01:31:45,479 --> 01:31:48,960
Speaker 4: as the Durham Report clearly showed. And that's the value

1947
01:31:49,000 --> 01:31:50,720
Speaker 4: in talking about this. I said a couple of weeks

1948
01:31:50,720 --> 01:31:52,880
Speaker 4: ago that when people start going deep on the Durham

1949
01:31:52,920 --> 01:31:55,439
Speaker 4: Report and the FBI and the CIA and dan Chenko,

1950
01:31:55,560 --> 01:31:58,559
Speaker 4: when all of this, my eyes will sometimes glaze over

1951
01:31:58,720 --> 01:32:03,000
Speaker 4: because it's intentional, convoluted. It was intentionally involving all of

1952
01:32:03,040 --> 01:32:04,799
Speaker 4: these shell groups.

1953
01:32:04,840 --> 01:32:06,920
Speaker 3: And you have to know Faisa law, and you have to.

1954
01:32:06,880 --> 01:32:11,280
Speaker 4: Know everything about Carter Page and George Poppadopolis and all

1955
01:32:11,320 --> 01:32:15,120
Speaker 4: of these names. It's Watergate esque and even more complicated

1956
01:32:15,160 --> 01:32:18,479
Speaker 4: to fully understand the scheme that was perpetrated. But the

1957
01:32:18,520 --> 01:32:21,360
Speaker 4: more you dive into it, the more like disgusting it looks.

1958
01:32:21,439 --> 01:32:24,320
Speaker 4: And I think just this surface level comment by Comy,

1959
01:32:24,520 --> 01:32:27,680
Speaker 4: in contrast with what the Durham Report has from emails

1960
01:32:27,760 --> 01:32:30,200
Speaker 4: and all of that stuff on Comy himself, is a

1961
01:32:30,240 --> 01:32:33,360
Speaker 4: really perfect reason to focus in on the broad takeaway

1962
01:32:33,400 --> 01:32:36,200
Speaker 4: of the Durham Report, which is that no policy. You know,

1963
01:32:36,200 --> 01:32:38,719
Speaker 4: there may be some tweaks you can make to the FBI,

1964
01:32:39,160 --> 01:32:42,520
Speaker 4: But Durham concludes, and this is like a lifetime respected.

1965
01:32:42,560 --> 01:32:45,320
Speaker 4: I mean that even Chris Murphy from Connecticut, where Durham

1966
01:32:45,360 --> 01:32:48,400
Speaker 4: was working when he was appointed to do this investigation

1967
01:32:48,479 --> 01:32:52,360
Speaker 4: and then made special counsel, said was respected, someone that had,

1968
01:32:52,479 --> 01:32:57,600
Speaker 4: you know, pretty bipartisan appeal. Durham says, short of basically

1969
01:32:57,840 --> 01:33:04,000
Speaker 4: a overhaul of FBI personnel suddenly rediscovering their sense of integrity,

1970
01:33:04,320 --> 01:33:07,559
Speaker 4: you're going to continue having problems at this institution that

1971
01:33:07,720 --> 01:33:12,519
Speaker 4: has vast powers, extra constitutional powers over the average American,

1972
01:33:12,600 --> 01:33:14,479
Speaker 4: and you get back to the John Adams quote, which is,

1973
01:33:14,520 --> 01:33:17,759
Speaker 4: you know, our Constitution was made holly for a moral

1974
01:33:18,600 --> 01:33:20,640
Speaker 4: I think he said also in Religious People, there are

1975
01:33:20,640 --> 01:33:22,679
Speaker 4: all kinds of quotes from the founders talking about how

1976
01:33:22,800 --> 01:33:27,000
Speaker 4: the small are republicanism. Constitutional republic only works when you

1977
01:33:27,080 --> 01:33:30,000
Speaker 4: have like a moral consensus and a good moral consensus.

1978
01:33:30,400 --> 01:33:33,599
Speaker 4: And James Comy his idea of what rule constitute's rule

1979
01:33:33,600 --> 01:33:36,280
Speaker 4: of law is laughable. It fails on its face. And

1980
01:33:36,360 --> 01:33:39,000
Speaker 4: we can get into a little bit more of why.

1981
01:33:39,600 --> 01:33:42,639
Speaker 4: Comy continued to say in this interview, I think Trump

1982
01:33:42,680 --> 01:33:45,479
Speaker 4: poses a near existential threat to the rule of law.

1983
01:33:45,640 --> 01:33:47,479
Speaker 4: He will do everything he can in a new term

1984
01:33:47,520 --> 01:33:49,519
Speaker 4: to try to tear down the institutions that he sees

1985
01:33:49,520 --> 01:33:51,640
Speaker 4: hiss threats and to dismantle them and the people who

1986
01:33:51,720 --> 01:33:54,680
Speaker 4: occupy them, the a political people who occupy them a

1987
01:33:54,800 --> 01:33:57,360
Speaker 4: political Okay, So there's a lot on the ballot in

1988
01:33:57,360 --> 01:33:59,320
Speaker 4: twenty twenty four if he is a candidate, But the

1989
01:33:59,400 --> 01:34:00,800
Speaker 4: rule of law, in my view, is.

1990
01:34:00,800 --> 01:34:03,360
Speaker 3: At the top of the list. Okay.

1991
01:34:03,439 --> 01:34:06,880
Speaker 4: So you get Chuck Ross over at the Washington Free Beacon,

1992
01:34:06,920 --> 01:34:11,320
Speaker 4: who's covered this stuff really effectively, who says in response,

1993
01:34:11,439 --> 01:34:14,439
Speaker 4: in reality, the Durham Report revealed extensive evidence that Comy

1994
01:34:14,560 --> 01:34:17,000
Speaker 4: was far more involved in Crossfire Hurricane, that was, the

1995
01:34:17,040 --> 01:34:20,080
Speaker 4: investigation into Russian collusion and the push for the phony

1996
01:34:20,080 --> 01:34:22,599
Speaker 4: FISA than he has previously claimed. That's the FISA into

1997
01:34:22,640 --> 01:34:25,680
Speaker 4: carter Page. The report also revealed that Comy refused.

1998
01:34:25,320 --> 01:34:28,160
Speaker 3: To cooperate with Durham. Okay, don't let your eyes.

1999
01:34:28,000 --> 01:34:30,240
Speaker 4: Glaze over yet, because we can go even more to

2000
01:34:30,320 --> 01:34:33,719
Speaker 4: the thirty thousand foot level and just put this really simply,

2001
01:34:34,680 --> 01:34:37,800
Speaker 4: Durham found that Comy had a very different standard for

2002
01:34:37,840 --> 01:34:40,639
Speaker 4: how he treated the Clinton investigation and how he treated

2003
01:34:40,720 --> 01:34:43,679
Speaker 4: the Trump investigation. That is to say, the FBI, under

2004
01:34:43,720 --> 01:34:46,759
Speaker 4: Comy and including Comy, checked a lot of more boxes

2005
01:34:46,800 --> 01:34:49,840
Speaker 4: in investigating Hillary Clinton than they did in Donald Trump.

2006
01:34:49,920 --> 01:34:53,280
Speaker 4: Comy was repeatedly asking where's the PISA, Where's the FISA

2007
01:34:53,360 --> 01:34:56,320
Speaker 4: to Andrew McCabe when it came to carter Page. We know,

2008
01:34:56,400 --> 01:34:59,639
Speaker 4: I mean someone was actually convicted of fudging an email,

2009
01:35:00,360 --> 01:35:03,320
Speaker 4: that would be Kevin Klinsmith in order to illegally surveil

2010
01:35:03,400 --> 01:35:05,080
Speaker 4: an American citizen carter Page.

2011
01:35:05,080 --> 01:35:06,280
Speaker 3: But there you have the rule of.

2012
01:35:06,280 --> 01:35:10,920
Speaker 4: Law right in itself. Rule of law means equal enforcement

2013
01:35:11,000 --> 01:35:13,559
Speaker 4: of the law. That is part of our legal and

2014
01:35:13,600 --> 01:35:16,080
Speaker 4: cultural understanding of what the rule of law is. So

2015
01:35:16,120 --> 01:35:20,200
Speaker 4: when Durham shows pretty persuasively that James Comy and the

2016
01:35:20,320 --> 01:35:25,600
Speaker 4: entire FBI under his leadership had provided very different and

2017
01:35:25,760 --> 01:35:30,799
Speaker 4: unequal treatment to Hillary Clinton, one presidential candidate, Democratic presidential candidate,

2018
01:35:30,840 --> 01:35:34,000
Speaker 4: and Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, that in and

2019
01:35:34,040 --> 01:35:37,000
Speaker 4: of itself shows that he violated the rule of law.

2020
01:35:37,040 --> 01:35:40,439
Speaker 4: He basically just shattered it in pursuit of this. And

2021
01:35:40,479 --> 01:35:42,679
Speaker 4: then you can add how the FBI under his watch

2022
01:35:42,680 --> 01:35:48,640
Speaker 4: illegally surveiled an American citizen and violated the spirit of

2023
01:35:48,840 --> 01:35:52,280
Speaker 4: vice a law, if not the actual law itself. And

2024
01:35:52,320 --> 01:35:55,040
Speaker 4: there you have the rule of law out the window.

2025
01:35:55,400 --> 01:35:59,240
Speaker 4: So when Donald Trump comes in and says I'm going

2026
01:35:59,280 --> 01:36:01,960
Speaker 4: to take a flame thrower to the FBI and DJ

2027
01:36:02,200 --> 01:36:06,160
Speaker 4: that's called me lamented. It's because of you, it's because

2028
01:36:06,280 --> 01:36:10,320
Speaker 4: you broke, you violated the rule of law. That populists

2029
01:36:10,360 --> 01:36:13,839
Speaker 4: are now saying there needs to be a flamethrower taken

2030
01:36:13,920 --> 01:36:15,200
Speaker 4: to the FBI and DOJ.

2031
01:36:15,479 --> 01:36:17,840
Speaker 3: And guess what, they're not wrong.

2032
01:36:18,240 --> 01:36:21,840
Speaker 4: They're not wrong that the FBI and DOJ are fundamentally

2033
01:36:21,880 --> 01:36:26,040
Speaker 4: broken institutions. Even again, John Durham came to that conclusion

2034
01:36:26,040 --> 01:36:30,200
Speaker 4: after years of investigation, somebody who had pretty bipartisan incentsive

2035
01:36:30,640 --> 01:36:33,559
Speaker 4: respect has worked around the FBI for a long time.

2036
01:36:34,040 --> 01:36:37,760
Speaker 4: If you have even that, and if you have persuasive

2037
01:36:37,840 --> 01:36:40,760
Speaker 4: evidence that you Dreams Coy violated the rule of law,

2038
01:36:40,760 --> 01:36:41,560
Speaker 4: that your staff.

2039
01:36:41,320 --> 01:36:43,680
Speaker 3: Violated the rule of law, and you are the.

2040
01:36:43,640 --> 01:36:46,800
Speaker 4: Ones you're griping about Populace coming in and saying the

2041
01:36:46,800 --> 01:36:51,000
Speaker 4: institution that you led and that conclusively persuaded like it

2042
01:36:51,240 --> 01:36:55,080
Speaker 4: conclusively failed to uphold the rule of law. For you

2043
01:36:55,160 --> 01:36:59,160
Speaker 4: to come in and say that Donald Trump poses an

2044
01:36:59,200 --> 01:37:02,240
Speaker 4: existential threat to it when you have already been the

2045
01:37:02,280 --> 01:37:06,000
Speaker 4: biggest threat to the rule of law because you actually,

2046
01:37:06,120 --> 01:37:07,680
Speaker 4: in a position of power.

2047
01:37:07,840 --> 01:37:08,680
Speaker 3: Violated it.

2048
01:37:09,439 --> 01:37:11,640
Speaker 4: People are of course going to start to want to

2049
01:37:11,680 --> 01:37:13,679
Speaker 4: fight fire with fire. You know, they're going to start

2050
01:37:13,760 --> 01:37:16,080
Speaker 4: justifying violations of the rule of law in order to

2051
01:37:16,120 --> 01:37:17,960
Speaker 4: get back to a position where we can uphold the

2052
01:37:18,040 --> 01:37:20,640
Speaker 4: rule of law. And that's wrong. But it's because of you,

2053
01:37:21,320 --> 01:37:24,599
Speaker 4: James Comy. It's because you violated the rule of law first.

2054
01:37:24,680 --> 01:37:27,400
Speaker 3: So if you're worried about it, be better.

2055
01:37:27,680 --> 01:37:30,960
Speaker 4: And that's exactly what John Durham prescribed in the Durham Report,

2056
01:37:31,160 --> 01:37:32,800
Speaker 4: and that's the scariest part of all of it. He

2057
01:37:32,880 --> 01:37:35,360
Speaker 4: concluded that, you know, those tweaks can be made, but

2058
01:37:35,479 --> 01:37:38,280
Speaker 4: no policy alone is going to fix the FBI. It

2059
01:37:38,360 --> 01:37:41,800
Speaker 4: actually needs to be full of people who wield their

2060
01:37:41,840 --> 01:37:45,840
Speaker 4: power responsibly. So long as you have James Comy out

2061
01:37:45,880 --> 01:37:48,240
Speaker 4: there talking about he you know, he made a couple

2062
01:37:48,360 --> 01:37:50,760
Speaker 4: mistakes and you know some boxes weren't checked that they

2063
01:37:50,760 --> 01:37:53,559
Speaker 4: should have been. That's not the full picture because when

2064
01:37:53,600 --> 01:37:55,599
Speaker 4: you compare it as Durham did to what they did

2065
01:37:55,680 --> 01:37:58,080
Speaker 4: for Hillary Clinton versus what they did to Donald Trump,

2066
01:37:58,640 --> 01:38:00,680
Speaker 4: you see very clearly where they fit to uphold the

2067
01:38:00,760 --> 01:38:03,439
Speaker 4: rule of law. And I just think this is worth

2068
01:38:03,479 --> 01:38:06,320
Speaker 4: talking about because that one big takeaway from the Durham

2069
01:38:06,360 --> 01:38:09,120
Speaker 4: Report from John Durham himself. You know, somebody who's been

2070
01:38:09,160 --> 01:38:11,880
Speaker 4: a career in this type of position, a serious person says,

2071
01:38:12,400 --> 01:38:16,479
Speaker 4: short of having you know, an integrity revolution at the FBI,

2072
01:38:16,680 --> 01:38:19,280
Speaker 4: these problems are not going to go away. That matters

2073
01:38:19,280 --> 01:38:22,479
Speaker 4: for the average person because the FBI wields enormous power

2074
01:38:22,840 --> 01:38:26,560
Speaker 4: over your life, and they're out here saying basically that

2075
01:38:27,360 --> 01:38:29,280
Speaker 4: that Donald Trump is the only threat to the rule

2076
01:38:29,320 --> 01:38:31,960
Speaker 4: of law, not them even though it's pretty clear that

2077
01:38:31,960 --> 01:38:33,160
Speaker 4: they violate the rule of law.

2078
01:38:35,800 --> 01:38:37,400
Speaker 3: All right, Chris Soll, what have you got for us

2079
01:38:37,439 --> 01:38:37,880
Speaker 3: this week?

2080
01:38:37,960 --> 01:38:40,559
Speaker 1: While we were just talking about somehow the you know,

2081
01:38:40,680 --> 01:38:42,559
Speaker 1: cutting the FBI, but it didn't come up in the

2082
01:38:42,560 --> 01:38:43,280
Speaker 1: dead ceiling deal.

2083
01:38:43,400 --> 01:38:45,519
Speaker 5: Not a thing that didn't come up, And actually the

2084
01:38:45,520 --> 01:38:47,639
Speaker 5: opposite of came up was defense cuts.

2085
01:38:47,960 --> 01:38:50,960
Speaker 1: You may recall at the beginning of the House Republican

2086
01:38:51,360 --> 01:38:53,800
Speaker 1: Caucus when there was the speakership fight, put this up

2087
01:38:53,840 --> 01:38:56,439
Speaker 1: on the screen the first element. There were actually some

2088
01:38:56,600 --> 01:38:59,160
Speaker 1: members I think Jim Jordan among them, who were floating,

2089
01:38:59,240 --> 01:39:03,160
Speaker 1: you know, as part of this debt ceiling hostage taking,

2090
01:39:03,600 --> 01:39:05,639
Speaker 1: one of the things we want to extract is actually

2091
01:39:05,680 --> 01:39:09,559
Speaker 1: cutting the Pentagon budget. They say they're from responsible state

2092
01:39:09,560 --> 01:39:12,639
Speaker 1: crap McCarthy wang seventy five billion dollar defense budget cut

2093
01:39:12,640 --> 01:39:15,400
Speaker 1: in quest for speakership, And so this was like a

2094
01:39:15,439 --> 01:39:17,519
Speaker 1: genuine live issue that was being debated.

2095
01:39:17,520 --> 01:39:18,200
Speaker 5: There was a lot of.

2096
01:39:18,120 --> 01:39:19,960
Speaker 1: Freak out from some of the defense hawks, some of

2097
01:39:19,960 --> 01:39:23,120
Speaker 1: the typical characters, but there was actually this idea that

2098
01:39:23,200 --> 01:39:25,360
Speaker 1: was taken seriously by the media of like, oh, maybe

2099
01:39:25,360 --> 01:39:28,960
Speaker 1: they actually want to cut the Pentagon budget. Well and behold,

2100
01:39:29,120 --> 01:39:31,840
Speaker 1: when the deal actually comes down. Not only do they

2101
01:39:31,920 --> 01:39:35,919
Speaker 1: not cut the Pentagon budget, they actually increased the Pentagon

2102
01:39:35,960 --> 01:39:38,880
Speaker 1: budget by quite a significant amount. And this is not

2103
01:39:38,960 --> 01:39:41,280
Speaker 1: a story about the Republicans being bad and evil. This

2104
01:39:41,360 --> 01:39:44,320
Speaker 1: is a story about the uniparty in Washington, Democrats and

2105
01:39:44,360 --> 01:39:49,439
Speaker 1: Republicans always having no issue inflating the Pentagon budget to

2106
01:39:49,760 --> 01:39:51,880
Speaker 1: astronomical record breaking levels.

2107
01:39:52,240 --> 01:39:53,519
Speaker 5: Literally, no matter what.

2108
01:39:53,960 --> 01:39:56,639
Speaker 1: Jud leg m Over at Popular Information his substack had

2109
01:39:56,640 --> 01:39:58,759
Speaker 1: a good piece on this. Put this up on the screen, guys.

2110
01:39:59,240 --> 01:40:01,920
Speaker 1: He talks about the numbers here. The compromise reach Sunday

2111
01:40:01,960 --> 01:40:05,479
Speaker 1: includes a small decrease in domestic discretionary spending and a

2112
01:40:05,680 --> 01:40:09,839
Speaker 1: record eight hundred and eighty six billion dollars for defense,

2113
01:40:09,920 --> 01:40:12,679
Speaker 1: a three point three percent increase over the current year.

2114
01:40:13,080 --> 01:40:15,600
Speaker 1: The money allocated for the defense budget is exactly what

2115
01:40:15,680 --> 01:40:19,840
Speaker 1: Biden requested in the twenty twenty four budget. Notably, half

2116
01:40:19,960 --> 01:40:24,839
Speaker 1: of that money will go to defense contractors. In twenty fifteen,

2117
01:40:24,960 --> 01:40:28,759
Speaker 1: just for comparison, the US spent five hundred and eighty

2118
01:40:28,800 --> 01:40:30,400
Speaker 1: five billion on its military.

2119
01:40:30,640 --> 01:40:32,400
Speaker 5: The US has added more.

2120
01:40:32,240 --> 01:40:36,920
Speaker 1: Than three hundred billion dollars in military spending in less

2121
01:40:37,160 --> 01:40:40,640
Speaker 1: than a decade. Okay, really take that in, So all

2122
01:40:40,680 --> 01:40:42,760
Speaker 1: the people who are out there. We're so concerned about

2123
01:40:42,760 --> 01:40:45,280
Speaker 1: the debt, We're so concerned about the deficit, et cetera,

2124
01:40:45,320 --> 01:40:48,360
Speaker 1: et cetera. Guess what, they don't blink an eye when

2125
01:40:48,400 --> 01:40:52,000
Speaker 1: you increase the military budget by three hundred billion dollars

2126
01:40:52,040 --> 01:40:56,080
Speaker 1: in less than a decade. That apparently doesn't count somehow.

2127
01:40:56,400 --> 01:40:59,120
Speaker 1: And it's not like the Pentagon has been making incredible

2128
01:40:59,240 --> 01:41:01,960
Speaker 1: use of these these funds to keep us all safe.

2129
01:41:02,560 --> 01:41:05,360
Speaker 1: First of all, just the amount, sheer volume of the

2130
01:41:05,439 --> 01:41:07,800
Speaker 1: dollars compared to other countries. Put this up on the screen.

2131
01:41:07,840 --> 01:41:10,679
Speaker 1: This was also from jud Legens report. We literally spend

2132
01:41:10,680 --> 01:41:14,120
Speaker 1: more on defense than the next ten countries combined, so

2133
01:41:14,320 --> 01:41:17,760
Speaker 1: it's not even close between us and everybody else. But

2134
01:41:17,880 --> 01:41:21,759
Speaker 1: also we know from recent reporting that they are getting

2135
01:41:21,800 --> 01:41:25,240
Speaker 1: price gouge. By that, I mean we the taxpayer are

2136
01:41:25,240 --> 01:41:30,160
Speaker 1: getting price gouge by these military industrial complex defense contractors

2137
01:41:30,439 --> 01:41:34,000
Speaker 1: in an insane way. Like you can't even wrap your

2138
01:41:34,040 --> 01:41:37,320
Speaker 1: head around this. Put this report up from sixty minutes

2139
01:41:37,439 --> 01:41:38,800
Speaker 1: that has some of the details.

2140
01:41:38,800 --> 01:41:39,040
Speaker 3: Here.

2141
01:41:39,200 --> 01:41:41,080
Speaker 1: They did a long report. I really recommend you watch

2142
01:41:41,120 --> 01:41:42,439
Speaker 1: all of it. If we played some of it, they

2143
01:41:42,439 --> 01:41:43,599
Speaker 1: would hit us for copyright.

2144
01:41:43,680 --> 01:41:44,000
Speaker 5: So that's why.

2145
01:41:44,040 --> 01:41:45,400
Speaker 1: I'm just going to read a portion here, but they

2146
01:41:45,439 --> 01:41:47,680
Speaker 1: say how the Pentagon falls victims to price gouging by

2147
01:41:47,720 --> 01:41:52,080
Speaker 1: military contractors. Just one example here in nineteen ninety one,

2148
01:41:52,240 --> 01:41:55,680
Speaker 1: there used to be more competition for military contracts. There

2149
01:41:55,720 --> 01:41:58,760
Speaker 1: was a wider array of defense contractors. They had to

2150
01:41:58,840 --> 01:42:02,200
Speaker 1: genuinely compete against each other, and lo and behold, the

2151
01:42:02,280 --> 01:42:05,559
Speaker 1: cost of one shoulder fired Stinger missile was twenty five

2152
01:42:05,600 --> 01:42:09,920
Speaker 1: thousand dollars. Current cost for that very same idle item,

2153
01:42:10,160 --> 01:42:12,920
Speaker 1: which has become very relevant in the Ukraine fight four

2154
01:42:13,040 --> 01:42:17,800
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars, even when you account for inflation. They

2155
01:42:17,800 --> 01:42:22,880
Speaker 1: point out, that is a sevenfold increase. The amount of

2156
01:42:23,000 --> 01:42:27,080
Speaker 1: slush fund cash we are rooting to these defense contractors

2157
01:42:27,200 --> 01:42:30,880
Speaker 1: is truly disgusting. So this is not getting us more

2158
01:42:30,960 --> 01:42:35,000
Speaker 1: national security, it's not keeping us safer. It's just lining

2159
01:42:35,080 --> 01:42:38,680
Speaker 1: the pockets of a bunch of astronomically wealthy executives. You

2160
01:42:38,720 --> 01:42:40,880
Speaker 1: wonder why wash in VC is one of the richest

2161
01:42:40,880 --> 01:42:41,519
Speaker 1: places in.

2162
01:42:41,479 --> 01:42:42,439
Speaker 5: The entire world.

2163
01:42:42,800 --> 01:42:45,840
Speaker 1: And by the way, these companies, what are they doing

2164
01:42:45,880 --> 01:42:48,719
Speaker 1: with these astronomical profit margins that they're able to reap

2165
01:42:48,800 --> 01:42:51,200
Speaker 1: at this point on the back of the US taxpayer.

2166
01:42:51,560 --> 01:42:54,760
Speaker 1: Are they investing in research and development or are they

2167
01:42:54,840 --> 01:42:58,560
Speaker 1: hiring even more workers or paying the workers they have better? No,

2168
01:42:58,960 --> 01:43:02,639
Speaker 1: you know what, they're doing stock buybacks to increase their

2169
01:43:02,680 --> 01:43:03,479
Speaker 1: share prices.

2170
01:43:03,760 --> 01:43:05,760
Speaker 5: They actually have more.

2171
01:43:05,600 --> 01:43:08,000
Speaker 1: Of their money, more of their profit margin, going to

2172
01:43:08,000 --> 01:43:12,400
Speaker 1: stock buybacks than to research and development or capital expenditures.

2173
01:43:12,479 --> 01:43:14,920
Speaker 1: So it is a truly disgusting state of affairs. The

2174
01:43:15,000 --> 01:43:17,280
Speaker 1: last piece of evidence I'll offer for you here, which

2175
01:43:17,320 --> 01:43:18,720
Speaker 1: I think just says it all. Put this up on

2176
01:43:18,760 --> 01:43:22,200
Speaker 1: the screen from responsible state craft. We just recently got

2177
01:43:22,200 --> 01:43:24,000
Speaker 1: the news, which we covered here. This was a few

2178
01:43:24,000 --> 01:43:28,599
Speaker 1: months ago the Pentagon, for the fifth time in a row,

2179
01:43:29,120 --> 01:43:33,720
Speaker 1: failed their congressionally mandated audit. Congress passed a law that

2180
01:43:33,800 --> 01:43:37,000
Speaker 1: said every federal agency has to go through an audit.

2181
01:43:37,240 --> 01:43:41,519
Speaker 1: The Pentagon fails theirs every single year. And let me

2182
01:43:41,520 --> 01:43:44,400
Speaker 1: tell you something, it's not even close. It's not like

2183
01:43:44,439 --> 01:43:47,479
Speaker 1: they're a few dollars off. They only managed to account

2184
01:43:47,520 --> 01:43:50,759
Speaker 1: for thirty nine percent of their three and a half

2185
01:43:50,840 --> 01:43:54,439
Speaker 1: trillion dollars in assets. They can account for less than

2186
01:43:54,520 --> 01:43:58,680
Speaker 1: half of their four trillion dollars roughly in assets. And

2187
01:43:59,080 --> 01:44:03,360
Speaker 1: yet Congress, Democrats, Republicans, they all look at this situation.

2188
01:44:03,479 --> 01:44:06,439
Speaker 1: They're like, you deserve a raise, let's up your budget

2189
01:44:06,520 --> 01:44:09,839
Speaker 1: to even more historic record breaking levels.

2190
01:44:10,120 --> 01:44:13,280
Speaker 5: And Emily is just such a tale as little time.

2191
01:44:15,880 --> 01:44:16,280
Speaker 3: Crystal.

2192
01:44:16,320 --> 01:44:18,800
Speaker 4: It's been wonderful to have you here in counterpoints the

2193
01:44:18,880 --> 01:44:22,960
Speaker 4: last couple of weeks, especially as we part ways and

2194
01:44:23,040 --> 01:44:24,839
Speaker 4: say goodbye to the brick prison.

2195
01:44:27,000 --> 01:44:30,720
Speaker 1: Listen, don't besmirch our brick walls. Emily, all right, it's

2196
01:44:30,760 --> 01:44:34,280
Speaker 1: too soon, too soon, but I haven't enjoyed the vibe here.

2197
01:44:34,479 --> 01:44:36,639
Speaker 1: I've enjoyed my time with you, and I'm sure we'll

2198
01:44:36,640 --> 01:44:38,920
Speaker 1: be doing it again. Thanks to Ryan for asking me

2199
01:44:38,960 --> 01:44:40,880
Speaker 1: and give me the opportunity, and hope you enjoyed your

2200
01:44:40,960 --> 01:44:42,320
Speaker 1: day doing whatever.

2201
01:44:42,360 --> 01:44:44,000
Speaker 5: I don't actually even remember what he told me he

2202
01:44:44,080 --> 01:44:44,439
Speaker 5: had to.

2203
01:44:44,360 --> 01:44:46,120
Speaker 3: Do, but it's important to ask.

2204
01:44:46,280 --> 01:44:49,160
Speaker 1: So hopefully something nice with this family and all that stuff.

2205
01:44:49,240 --> 01:44:52,360
Speaker 1: So thank you guys for watching. Listen if you haven't

2206
01:44:52,400 --> 01:44:56,120
Speaker 1: already subscribe on YouTube. We're getting close to a million subs.

2207
01:44:55,840 --> 01:44:56,559
Speaker 3: So close.

2208
01:44:56,720 --> 01:44:59,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, Kyle's got his like million subplaque hanging up in

2209
01:44:59,560 --> 01:45:00,320
Speaker 1: our place.

2210
01:45:00,360 --> 01:45:00,519
Speaker 4: Now.

2211
01:45:00,560 --> 01:45:02,960
Speaker 5: I'm a little bit jealous, so make that happen.

2212
01:45:03,200 --> 01:45:06,439
Speaker 1: Number one and number two help support us in terms

2213
01:45:06,520 --> 01:45:08,880
Speaker 1: of being able to build out. This set is a

2214
01:45:08,960 --> 01:45:12,080
Speaker 1: huge investment at SAGA, and I've been discussing super grateful

2215
01:45:12,120 --> 01:45:14,360
Speaker 1: to everybody who's already signed up as a premium sub.

2216
01:45:15,000 --> 01:45:16,720
Speaker 1: As you, guys know, you get the show early, you

2217
01:45:16,720 --> 01:45:18,640
Speaker 1: get the whole thing ad free, but also you just

2218
01:45:18,640 --> 01:45:21,320
Speaker 1: support some of the investments that we are making or

2219
01:45:21,360 --> 01:45:24,759
Speaker 1: continued inbate for the election season. So thank you, guys,

2220
01:45:24,800 --> 01:45:27,200
Speaker 1: We love you. If you haven't signed up yet Breakingpoints

2221
01:45:27,200 --> 01:45:30,280
Speaker 1: dot com. I will be back here tomorrow with Sager

2222
01:45:30,439 --> 01:45:32,680
Speaker 1: for our Thursday show and Emily will see you guys

2223
01:45:32,720 --> 01:45:33,080
Speaker 1: next week.

2224
01:45:33,200 --> 01:45:34,400
Speaker 3: Sounds good to see you guys then,