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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into another episode of the Daily

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Speaker 2: Juice podcast with me Matt Perelt at Sports Talk. Matt

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Speaker 2: to follow me across all socials. Can you, guys see

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Speaker 2: the hat? See the hat? That hat Mountain View Farm,

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Speaker 2: see that my brother's hat, my brother's.

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Speaker 1: Farm, supporting the family biz.

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Speaker 2: As we are back here in Las Vegas where we

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Speaker 2: should be, where we are supposed to be, back in

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Speaker 2: front of the right camera and the right backdrop with

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Speaker 2: the right microphone, and we are back. We also had

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Speaker 2: a winning day yesterday two and one. We put it

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Speaker 2: in the discord channel. If I have any idea to

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Speaker 2: bet and under involving the Pacers, please you have every

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Speaker 2: right to verbally physically slim me across socially whatever the face.

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Speaker 2: Two and one, I bet the under with the Bucks

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Speaker 2: and the Pacers pace of play better defense. No sorry

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Speaker 2: way over would have been all three games to go over,

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Speaker 2: Indiana State over, the Wizards over, and the Bucks under.

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Speaker 2: Well two and one up point nine units back to Vegas,

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Speaker 2: one to zero winning days. Let's see how many winning

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Speaker 2: days we can stack together now that we're back here

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Speaker 2: in Las Vegas for a Thursday morning edition of the

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Speaker 2: Daily Juice Podcast being brought to you by Omaha Steaks

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Speaker 2: Minimum purchase may be required. Okay, big college basketball game

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Speaker 2: or slate today? Not a lot going on. Okay, it's

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Speaker 2: a Thursday. We have no Thursday football first. One of

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Speaker 2: these kind of stinks. We don't have college football to

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Speaker 2: kind of trip over and deal with. So that's good.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk college basketball. I'm going to focus here on

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Speaker 2: college basketball. I really like betting college basketball. It's time

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Speaker 2: to focus in on college basketball. We get Indiana State

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Speaker 2: last night, and let's stay with the small guys. We

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Speaker 2: bet a game involving Merrimack earlier this year. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: go back. Merrimack is taking on Fairley Dickinson. Fairly Dickinson,

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Speaker 2: a team that has the same record as Merrimack. Both

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Speaker 2: these teams are out side of the top two twenty

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Speaker 2: five on Kempom. But Kempom has this as a nine

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Speaker 2: point victory. Now the number seven Merrimck minus seven, gut

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Speaker 2: tells me by the time this game closes, it'll be

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Speaker 2: Mary Mack minus nine. But this is an extra game,

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Speaker 2: so your book may not have this. DraftKings has this

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Speaker 2: by the time your book opens up. Hopefully I wouldn't

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Speaker 2: play this higher than eight. Seven and a half is fine.

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Speaker 2: But Merrimack defensively, I think is going to be able

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Speaker 2: to slow down FD here. Merrimack has a one hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifteenth efficient defense in college basketball. They're ninety first

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Speaker 2: and effective field goal percentage. Defensively, they are seventeenth in turnovers.

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Speaker 2: This team is good on defense, not good on three

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Speaker 2: point shooting. They're three hundred, two hundred and fifty ninth

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Speaker 2: and three point defense, but Fairley Dickinson is two thirty one.

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Speaker 1: They don't shoot the three very well. They don't shoot

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Speaker 1: the two very well.

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Speaker 2: Merrimack's offense isn't good, but FDU's defense is Horris three

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty seventh in adjusted efficiency. They are three

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Speaker 2: hundred and thirty second in effective field goal percentage. And

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Speaker 2: you look at the way Merrimack has played at home.

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Speaker 2: They're nine to and one overall ats. They're two to

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Speaker 2: zero at home. They've played many road games, not a

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Speaker 2: lot of home games. But against Bucknell last time out,

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Speaker 2: when we bet Merrimack, they were laying five and a half,

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Speaker 2: they won by sixteen. They're laying seven here. Kem Palm

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Speaker 2: has it as a nine point win. They beat you

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Speaker 2: mass Lowell when they were five and a half point

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Speaker 2: dogs at home. They won the game by six. Every

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Speaker 2: other game at home has been Worcester State or against

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Speaker 2: Felician University teams that are D two. They are in

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Speaker 2: D one teams at me Merrimack. They got to go

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Speaker 2: on the road to get teams to play them. When

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Speaker 2: they go to North Andover to play Merrimack, not been great.

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Speaker 2: I told you before I grew up going to this gym.

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Speaker 2: I grew up going to summer camp in this gym.

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Speaker 2: I know what this thing is like. It's a it's

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Speaker 2: a glorified high school basketball stadium.

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Speaker 1: But Merrimack is good at home. They're good ats.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna lay the seven Merrimack minus seven up against

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Speaker 2: Fairley Dickinson.

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Speaker 1: FDU to go there and lose.

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Speaker 2: By double digits, probably to Merrimack here, because I don't

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Speaker 2: think FDU is going to score enough. They have not

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Speaker 2: covered in their last three games, losing to Illinois by

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Speaker 2: thirty three, Fairfield by twenty three, in Colombia by four.

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Speaker 2: Two of those games were at home. The road game

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Speaker 2: to Illinois the last time they played before Crow right

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Speaker 2: after Christmas on the twenty ninth of December, they lost

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Speaker 2: by thirty three points. Merrimack minus seven for one point

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Speaker 2: one units. Second bet Colorado and Arizona. This game is

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Speaker 2: in Tucson. The total for this game one sixty two

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Speaker 2: and a half or one sixty three. Shop okay, shop around,

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Speaker 2: see what you can get from a number perspective. The

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Speaker 2: first move when this game opened was a little bit

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Speaker 2: surprising to me, because I was pretty confident that everybody

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Speaker 2: would be on the over, but maybe not. Okay, DraftKings

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Speaker 2: is at one sixty two and a half. Other offshores

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Speaker 2: are at one sixty two and a half Open at

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Speaker 2: one sixty two. Here in Vegas is at one sixty three.

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Speaker 2: Arizona and Colorado over one sixty two and a half.

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Speaker 2: Why we're talking about a top thirty efficient offense in

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Speaker 2: a top ten effective field goal percentage for Colorado, Arizona

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Speaker 2: number six and number thirty three in those categories. Defensively,

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Speaker 2: Arizona is number seven in efficiency one hundred and forty fourth,

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Speaker 2: though an effective field goal percentage, Arizona is fourth in

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Speaker 2: the country. In tempo they want to run, run, run

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Speaker 2: eighty seventh for Colorado. Not awesome, but top one hundred. Okay,

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Speaker 2: top one hundred. You've got a three point shooting Colorado

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Speaker 2: team that's really good, seventh in the country forty point

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Speaker 2: eight percent from behind the arc. And Arizona's defense is

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Speaker 2: that problem. They are two hundred and twenty second in

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Speaker 2: three point defense. This number is eleven and a half.

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Speaker 2: It's eleven and a half. Now, Arizona's coming off that

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Speaker 2: really bad loss to Stanford. We talked about that last night,

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Speaker 2: while we bet Arizona to win the national championship, I

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Speaker 2: lean towards the dog here at plus eleven and a half,

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Speaker 2: I think this is too many points. But rather than

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Speaker 2: get involved with that, I think Arizona goes and scores

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Speaker 2: a ton, but the Buffs might be able to score

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Speaker 2: with them. I mean, Arizon's offense is tremendous. We know

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Speaker 2: how good they are, we know how easily they score

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Speaker 2: the basket, how fast they score. They're ten and three

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Speaker 2: this year to the over. They're six and zero to

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Speaker 2: the over at home. Colorado's one in three on the

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Speaker 2: on the road to the over, but it's mostly because

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Speaker 2: like they played at Colorado State they lost by five.

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Speaker 2: CSU takes the air out of the ball. We watched

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Speaker 2: them play Creighton. We know how they played. They just

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Speaker 2: play really really slow. Neutral against Richmond, you know, neutral

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Speaker 2: against Florida State. I mean, sorry that ten and three

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Speaker 2: Marcus Arizona to against the spread. Sorry that that's their

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Speaker 2: spread number. They're seven and six to the over. Sorry

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Speaker 2: this year three and three at home, one in three,

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Speaker 2: So that one in three.

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Speaker 1: Mark was right for Colorado.

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Speaker 2: They've played neutral under against Miami, they played neutral or

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Speaker 2: on the road. Sorry, neutral against Florida State, Neutral against Richmond.

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Speaker 1: Those games been under and.

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Speaker 2: Then they played where's the other under game that they played?

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Speaker 1: Well, it's one in three. It says on the road,

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Speaker 1: but I've got one two.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there you go, yeah three. The Unders came on

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Speaker 2: neutral courts. The one game that they played, the one

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Speaker 2: true road game against CSU, went over by twenty one

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Speaker 2: and a half points. Give you an idea. I just

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Speaker 2: don't think this game is going to be slow. I

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Speaker 2: think this game is going to be fast. I know

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Speaker 2: one six two is a high number. I get that,

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Speaker 2: but I just think we're looking at a lot of points.

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Speaker 2: KEMPOM has this, and it's interesting when you look at

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Speaker 2: this from a Kempom perspective, because Kempom thinks this is

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Speaker 2: going to be a chance to jump on the buffs

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Speaker 2: two eighty six to seventy seven. I didn't actually add

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Speaker 2: that up. Eighty six seventy seven for that if you

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Speaker 2: let me do that on that one sixty three. So

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Speaker 2: we're playing right half a point one sixty two and

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Speaker 2: a half. But this has a nine point win for Arizona.

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Speaker 2: The number is eleven and a half. So people think

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Speaker 2: bounce back spot, you know, for for Arizona here to

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Speaker 2: come in after what happened last week last time out

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Speaker 2: against Stanford, they're gonna kill Colorado.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if I agree with that.

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Speaker 2: To be completely honest, I'm not sure I think this

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Speaker 2: is going to be an absolute blowout. Yes, it's in Tucson. Yes,

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Speaker 2: Arizona's gonna be rocking it. Yes, the teams are. You know,

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Speaker 2: Arizona's pissed off. They've lost three of five and someone's

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Speaker 2: got to pay for it. But give me the over

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Speaker 2: over one sixty two and a half. Arizona and Colorado

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Speaker 2: and play number two Michigan hosting minute soda. Did you

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Speaker 2: know Minnesota's twelve and one ats the best ATS team

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Speaker 2: in the country.

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Speaker 1: Here's the problem. They've played nobody, I mean, I mean

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Speaker 1: like nobody, nobody.

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Speaker 2: They lost to Missouri, they lost to San Francisco, they

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Speaker 2: lost to Ohio State. Their best wins Nebraska. That's their

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Speaker 2: best win from Minnesota. They beat Nebraska seventy six to

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Speaker 2: sixty five. They beat Maine, Ball State, Florida, Gulf Coast,

188
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Speaker 2: New Orleans, Arkansas, Pine Bluff, Pathune, Cookman. Like, yeah, they're

189
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Speaker 2: winning these games, Okay, yes, they're covering when they play games. Yes,

190
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Speaker 2: three losses. I mean Michigan here. According to Ken Palm,

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Speaker 2: it's a five point win. I can't get involved here

192
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Speaker 2: and I can't lay it with Michigan. I want to

193
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Speaker 2: lay it with Michigan, I do. I think there's a

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Speaker 2: decent shot. Number six and a half opened at five

195
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Speaker 2: and a half. Number is six and a half. I

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Speaker 2: think you could trail, you could follow this steam if

197
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Speaker 2: you want and take Michigan, or you can say that

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Speaker 2: you know, Minnesota is really good ats, so they've learned

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Speaker 2: how to play tight games. So I'm going to jump

200
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Speaker 2: in with the dog here. Michigan's eleven and two to

201
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Speaker 2: the over, eleven and two to the over. Minnesota's only

202
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Speaker 2: played two games away from home, and they're one in

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Speaker 2: one to the over. Their game against San Francisco was

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Speaker 2: on neutral court. They lost that game, but it went

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Speaker 2: under by one point, like it just went under. The

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Speaker 2: other game that was on the road for them was

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Speaker 2: against Ohio State went over by sixteen and a half points.

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Speaker 1: Flew over from Minnesota.

209
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Speaker 2: Michigan has gone over on neutral against Florida, it went

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Speaker 2: over by forty eight and a half points. At home

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Speaker 2: against McNee state last game out seventeen and a half points,

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Speaker 2: Eastern Michigan three and a half points, Iowa eleven points,

213
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Speaker 2: Indiana at home ten and a half points, Oregon on

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Speaker 2: the road nineteen and a half points. That is six

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Speaker 2: consecutive games against Stanford eleven points on a neutral. Seven

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Speaker 2: out of the last eight games, eight of the last

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Speaker 2: ten have gone over at home six and oh, Michigan

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Speaker 2: perfect to the over. They said one in one to

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Speaker 2: Minnesota numbers one fifty one and a half. We're going

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Speaker 2: over one fifty one and a half for Michigan and Minnesota.

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Speaker 2: Get some rock and annar or basketball going with some

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Speaker 2: up and down tempo. Tempo's a little bit of a concern.

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Speaker 2: Not gonna lie. Temple's not great. Michigan temple wise is

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Speaker 2: one hundred and seventy seventh. That's not great. Minnesota is

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Speaker 2: one hundred and eighty third. That's not great. But we

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Speaker 2: need good shooting. Minnesota effective field goal percentage eight sorry,

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Speaker 2: sixteenth best in the country, Michigan twenty third best in

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Speaker 2: the country. Defensively, Michigan one hundred and ninety eighth in

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Speaker 2: that category, not great. Minnesota defense has been pretty good

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Speaker 2: fifty eighth. But you know what I mean, like who

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Speaker 2: they've played, Like that defensive number for Minnesota's gonna be skewed.

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Speaker 2: You can't go a lot into it. But Michigan three

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Speaker 2: pointe twenty first best in the country. That's awesome from

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Speaker 2: Minnesota sixty fourth best in the country, but their twelfth

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Speaker 2: best and two point percentage. They got a big, They

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Speaker 2: got a big. There's going to be a big problem.

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Speaker 2: Dawson Garcia six'. Eleven kid's gonna be a problem For,

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Speaker 2: michigan big problem For.

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Speaker 1: Michigan he can, run he can.

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Speaker 2: Score in, Transition Dawson garcia is going to be probably

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Speaker 2: the best player on the. Court he's going to be

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Speaker 2: a real problem for anybody this, season But michigan in,

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Speaker 2: particular easy, baskets quick, tempo hopefully back and. Forth we're

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Speaker 2: going over one fifty one and a half From michigan And.

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Speaker 2: Minnesota all, right three bets for us, here all in college,

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Speaker 2: basketball going after. It we hit the college basketball bet

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Speaker 2: yesterday With Indiana state in the.

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Speaker 1: Over let's see what we can do here today.

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Speaker 2: Tonight merrimack minus seven AGAINST fdu one point one units

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Speaker 2: over one sixty two and a Half arizona And, colorado

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Speaker 2: over one fifty one and a half From michigan And.

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Speaker 2: Minnesota three point three units in play here for us

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Speaker 2: on A thursday's, map brought to you and following me

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Speaker 2: across all socials At Sports Talk. Matt good to be

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Speaker 2: back here In Vegas Daily Juice. PODCAST i was being

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Speaker 2: brought to you By olmastaks dot com