WEBVTT - The British Investing Risk Factor 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:03.160 Well, we've been putting a lot of money into the UK, 0:00:03.600 --> 0:00:06.920 so they have a lot of pockets of strength that 0:00:07.000 --> 0:00:11.239 they've been through a complex time politically, but if you 0:00:11.320 --> 0:00:15.280 look longer term, I think there are some interesting things 0:00:15.320 --> 0:00:16.200 going on here. 0:00:16.760 --> 0:00:18.520 There was a boss of Blackstone, one of the world's 0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:24.120 biggest private equity investors, headlining the government's flagship investment conference 0:00:24.200 --> 0:00:27.600 just a couple of weeks ago, trying to attract investment 0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:29.440 and get more money in the country. 0:00:29.720 --> 0:00:31.479 Hampton Court. No, last you were that, weren't you. 0:00:31.560 --> 0:00:33.200 He was very christmasy and cold. 0:00:33.560 --> 0:00:34.280 Everyone showed up. 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:36.760 You had sovereign wealth funds, you had the guitarian investment 0:00:36.800 --> 0:00:39.400 authority of a well run show, and they actually got 0:00:39.440 --> 0:00:40.280 real money behind it. 0:00:40.720 --> 0:00:43.239 I remember having to do something for it at the 0:00:43.280 --> 0:00:46.800 one two years previously at the Science Museum, the first one, 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:50.560 the inaugural. Yeah, it was quite awkward because I was 0:00:50.600 --> 0:00:54.160 asked to share something between the then Prime Minister Portions 0:00:54.200 --> 0:00:58.560 and Bill Gates and Boris announced the amount that Bill 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:00.800 gwent Gates was investing in the country and he got 0:01:00.800 --> 0:01:05.360 it wrong. And I remember not knowing how to adjudicate 0:01:05.480 --> 0:01:09.600 between Boris getting Bill Gates's quantum wrong Bill Gates was 0:01:09.640 --> 0:01:12.720 furious that he had been kind of under sold and 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:15.000 this was the beginning of the investment summits. So but 0:01:15.440 --> 0:01:17.280 that was you know, that was very slick and very 0:01:17.319 --> 0:01:19.640 good as well. Though there has been some commentary recently 0:01:19.680 --> 0:01:22.240 about it takes so long to get some of these 0:01:22.280 --> 0:01:25.240 amounts that agreed at the time, but still it takes 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:28.399 a while to get them actually into the country. 0:01:29.120 --> 0:01:31.840 And I guess the UK still has structural problems right. 0:01:31.880 --> 0:01:34.000 It's not doing as well as it could in terms 0:01:34.040 --> 0:01:37.480 of productivity, in terms of worthy economies headed so you 0:01:37.520 --> 0:01:39.479 always have to make the case of why you'd invest 0:01:39.480 --> 0:01:41.000 in the UK instead of elsewhere. 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:43.760 Yes, and the gentleman we're going to hear from in 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:46.760 a second, Lord Harrington. What's interesting about his review is 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:49.800 the amount of cross party support it does seem to have, 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:53.680 and lots of the commentary from Bloomberg and others has 0:01:53.720 --> 0:01:56.520 been around. You know, this is a decent package, but 0:01:56.600 --> 0:01:57.680 why has it taken so long? 0:02:00.120 --> 0:02:02.480 Come to In the City Bloomberg's podcast, connecting you to 0:02:02.520 --> 0:02:05.240 the conversations and the stories shaping the world of finance 0:02:05.480 --> 0:02:08.800 and fronting like One our London studio with Alecrastratton and 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:11.480 this week we speak with Tory peer Lord Harrington, who 0:02:11.520 --> 0:02:14.840 recently headed the government review into the UK's approach to 0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:16.720 attracting foreign direct investment. 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:23.360 Not Harrington, you've been around Westminster and UK politics for 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:28.480 quite a while. You've proposed these investment changes. Why, reflecting 0:02:28.639 --> 0:02:30.880 on the last few years, or indeed thirteen years, has 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:33.240 it taken so long do you think for the government 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:35.200 to give you the mandate it did well. 0:02:35.240 --> 0:02:39.720 I think government moves slowly. And the reality is capitalism 0:02:39.760 --> 0:02:42.440 has changed as far as investments concerned. From what I 0:02:42.480 --> 0:02:47.040 can see, it's moved from a belief in this country 0:02:47.120 --> 0:02:51.639 amongst certain sections of the Conservative Party that actually businesses 0:02:51.720 --> 0:02:53.799 not much to do with government. You move out the way, 0:02:53.919 --> 0:02:57.360 you reduce the taxes, and you provide an environment that 0:02:57.400 --> 0:03:00.000 the market will take care of itself. Well, the world 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:05.359 has changed now. Every other capitalistic country Western democracy, will 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:11.400 include the Eastern Western democracies are actively going out to 0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:16.639 bribe in the companies to come there. Actually bribe sounds dishonest, 0:03:16.639 --> 0:03:19.680 but you know, incent them to do it with a 0:03:19.760 --> 0:03:25.080 package of money, energy, a site you know will rent 0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:28.840 free site or packages are skills, visas and everything else. 0:03:29.160 --> 0:03:31.200 And we've been very slow to react to that. 0:03:32.000 --> 0:03:35.040 Hasn't it always been like that? I remember Emmanuel Macron 0:03:35.560 --> 0:03:38.000 rolling the red carpets for the banks in Paris. 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:42.760 Well, Macron is the exemplar of the active head of state. 0:03:43.120 --> 0:03:45.600 In fact, if I had fifty pounds for every person 0:03:45.640 --> 0:03:48.120 who told me that they've got Macron's mobile number and 0:03:48.200 --> 0:03:51.240 speak to him regularly about investment, I'd be a rich man. 0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:54.080 But I do exaggerate to make a point. You know, 0:03:54.440 --> 0:03:58.200 they've definitely been much more investment friendly, and I do 0:03:58.240 --> 0:04:01.520 think Rishi and is credit for this. I think he's 0:04:01.560 --> 0:04:04.280 done his best to try and counter that. For example, 0:04:04.480 --> 0:04:06.960 we had a very good global investment summit a couple 0:04:07.000 --> 0:04:10.240 of weeks ago at Hampton Court. It was impressive. But 0:04:11.080 --> 0:04:15.400 the reality is of companies that want to invest in 0:04:15.400 --> 0:04:18.479 the UK. And I say companies I include sovering, well funds, 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:22.760 pension funds, financial institutions as well as multinational companies. They 0:04:22.839 --> 0:04:27.400 find us very disjointed in our approach. It takes too long. 0:04:27.600 --> 0:04:30.600 They get written offers from other countries in thirty days. 0:04:30.920 --> 0:04:34.520 I mean one company told me who wanted eighty million 0:04:34.920 --> 0:04:38.440 on a one point four billion investment. So actually on 0:04:38.480 --> 0:04:41.680 the scale of it not a lot that fourteen months 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:44.080 later they hadn't heard whether you've got it or not. 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:47.320 And this is the whole purpose for my report on 0:04:47.360 --> 0:04:50.160 foreign directing investment is to come up with a system 0:04:50.200 --> 0:04:53.640 of organization of government to make sure that doesn't happen. 0:04:53.920 --> 0:04:56.120 It's not just saying we'll throw a lot of money around, 0:04:56.120 --> 0:04:57.599 because we don't have a lot of money. 0:04:57.680 --> 0:05:00.080 So how confident are you that these changes will be 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:01.359 becoming to affect asap? 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:05.160 Well? All I can say is that Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, 0:05:06.160 --> 0:05:09.640 has assured me that they will. One of my main 0:05:10.560 --> 0:05:14.240 recommendations was an investment committee at cabinet level that that 0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:18.600 will convene in January. But it's all about reorganizing government 0:05:18.640 --> 0:05:22.400 in an investment friendly way. So the nearest comparison I 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:26.120 could say to answer your question is that the first 0:05:26.200 --> 0:05:30.080 component is having a senior level investment committee kind of 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:33.719 cabinet level, who is like the board of a bank, 0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:37.640 laying out an investment strategy. If that sits, which it 0:05:37.680 --> 0:05:40.560 is in January, I hope everything will flow from that 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:44.640 because there's not that much politics in it, the opposition 0:05:44.720 --> 0:05:47.760 of being I've spoken to Jonathan Reynolds, who's the Shadow 0:05:47.800 --> 0:05:52.360 Business Secretary about it and Rachel Reeves, and they've said publicly. 0:05:52.560 --> 0:05:54.920 I think Jonathan Reynold spoke publicly a couple of weeks 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:57.680 ago at PwC saying that they support it. So our 0:05:57.760 --> 0:06:00.240 hope this is not politically contentious. 0:06:00.800 --> 0:06:02.920 What happened to the UK? I've been living here more 0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:06.600 than twenty five years fifteen twenty years ago, all of 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:09.560 European capital wanted to come to the UK. It's capital 0:06:09.600 --> 0:06:11.560 that wanted to be put to work because it had 0:06:11.560 --> 0:06:13.400 the rule of law, which it still has. I mean, 0:06:13.440 --> 0:06:16.479 it was just it made sense to put money here. 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:20.400 We definitely start for the point you've made English language 0:06:20.560 --> 0:06:23.400 rule of law. People like to live here, kids go 0:06:23.480 --> 0:06:27.400 to school and those cliche stuff. Yes we are fifteen 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:31.800 love up. But after that I'm afraid things really But why? 0:06:32.600 --> 0:06:37.000 Because the government's very old fashioned. It's not organized in 0:06:37.040 --> 0:06:41.599 a way. You know, each department has different policy objectives. 0:06:41.720 --> 0:06:44.360 The kind of elephant in the room or the department 0:06:44.400 --> 0:06:47.240 elephant in the room would be the Treasury, where I 0:06:47.400 --> 0:06:51.400 worked for a period. In my reflections are that they 0:06:51.440 --> 0:06:55.720 weren't hugely comfortable using UK public money when they thought 0:06:55.880 --> 0:06:58.559 that the private sector would do it. So I wonder 0:06:58.600 --> 0:07:01.160 whether you think that cultural change is possible. 0:07:01.400 --> 0:07:04.240 I think so. I mean treasury orthodoxy, of which Rishi 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:07.559 is a proponent of, is basically it's a begging bowl. 0:07:07.839 --> 0:07:09.880 If you allow all this stuff, it's just a begging 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:12.800 well for companies that would invest anyway. Yep, you know 0:07:12.880 --> 0:07:17.200 that's mantra number one. And it's not stupid. It's been 0:07:17.240 --> 0:07:22.200 born about from experience. But the reality is in a business, 0:07:22.200 --> 0:07:24.160 you have to do what your competitors do. You know, 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:27.080 we are not big enough to be market makers, were 0:07:27.160 --> 0:07:29.840 market takers. It's not an insult. It's just we've got 0:07:29.880 --> 0:07:33.119 sixty million people and you know have got hundreds of million. 0:07:33.400 --> 0:07:37.440 So you do what your competitors do. And the competitors 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:41.760 are incenting companies and foreign institutions to invest in them 0:07:41.760 --> 0:07:45.440 by offering them a package, some of which is money. Now, 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:49.040 we're actually quite good at money, we really are. For example, 0:07:49.040 --> 0:07:51.560 when I was at Bays in twenty sixteen, we were 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:54.520 spending about nine billion on research and development. We're now 0:07:54.520 --> 0:07:56.920 spending twenty nine billion. I mean, it's not that the 0:07:56.920 --> 0:07:59.040 money's not there, but it's all over the place. It's 0:07:59.040 --> 0:08:04.000 in pots. It's challenges it's in competitions, it's in grants, 0:08:04.040 --> 0:08:07.480 and you know, it's very confusing for a company, very confusing. 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:11.040 But again it does the book stop with the Prime minister. 0:08:11.200 --> 0:08:14.280 So is it the political instability in the last five 0:08:14.360 --> 0:08:17.160 six years that means that business and investment were not 0:08:17.240 --> 0:08:19.920 top of mind when making government policy. 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:23.520 I think that's a fair point, I think, and I 0:08:23.520 --> 0:08:27.239 can quote some examples where take for example net. 0:08:27.120 --> 0:08:30.080 Zero and just thinking about that mobile a. 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:33.640 Very noble policy objective. We did a lot of work 0:08:33.640 --> 0:08:36.439 when we did the Industrial Strategy, which I helped write 0:08:37.920 --> 0:08:39.400 a lot of people out right, I'm not saying I 0:08:39.400 --> 0:08:41.120 wrote it. It's like a huge tone, but I was 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:44.920 part of it for various sectors. Take automotive, and we 0:08:45.000 --> 0:08:49.480 met with all of the automotive companies, scientists, economists, modelers, 0:08:49.520 --> 0:08:52.679 everyone you can imagine, and came up with a consensus 0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:56.559 that twenty to fifty was the year for the end 0:08:56.600 --> 0:08:59.840 of you know, buying internal combustion engine cars, et cetera. 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:03.240 Because the companies said they needed twenty odd years, et cetera. 0:09:04.600 --> 0:09:09.120 Lots of companies began to make programs around that for investment. 0:09:09.960 --> 0:09:13.520 Four years later, in twenty twenty, Boris and Grant Shafts 0:09:13.600 --> 0:09:17.160 at some conference announced that we were changing it to 0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:21.000 twenty thirty Again. It may be a noble policy objective, 0:09:21.000 --> 0:09:25.440 but from an investment point of view. 0:09:23.800 --> 0:09:26.200 Forward to twenty years in a sentence a. 0:09:26.200 --> 0:09:29.640 Few weeks ago, Rishi in a speech changed its twenty 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:33.079 thirty five. Now again, I'm not saying that there's arguments 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:36.480 for those policies, but from an investor's point of view, 0:09:36.559 --> 0:09:40.000 there's a complete lack of consistency. So I think that's 0:09:40.000 --> 0:09:42.080 a sort of waffly way of saying I agree with you, 0:09:42.160 --> 0:09:45.840 because I don't think it's been The investment consequences of 0:09:45.880 --> 0:09:49.200 policy decisions have been at the top of the agenda, 0:09:49.280 --> 0:09:50.200 and I think they should be. 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:53.560 Does the UK have to work harder because of breaksit? 0:09:55.080 --> 0:09:57.160 Well, when I was asked to do the job by 0:09:57.280 --> 0:10:00.240 Jeremy Hunt, I mean my first thought was, oh, it's 0:10:00.280 --> 0:10:03.000 because of Brexit, because it's gone down since twenty sixteen, 0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:09.400 significantly address product investment. And then other people on perhaps 0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:12.679 other side of the political spectrum said, oh, no, it's 0:10:12.679 --> 0:10:16.040 all corporation tax. If you knock down corporation tax, they'll come. 0:10:16.520 --> 0:10:20.040 But in fact I found the evidence we took from 0:10:20.080 --> 0:10:24.440 more than two hundred companies and foreign institute severing, well funds, 0:10:24.559 --> 0:10:28.400 pension fans, et cetera. Was Yes, in some cases it 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:31.800 was Brexit if it was pure market access, you know, 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:36.560 perhaps a heavy manufactured product that required frictionless movement of 0:10:37.000 --> 0:10:40.760 components and finished product. Yes, Brexit was a point, but 0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:44.480 actually I found it less significant than I thought. That's 0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:47.960 not it's easy for me, So it's Brexit, but I'm 0:10:47.960 --> 0:10:50.480 not saying it wasn't a fact that. Similarly with corporation tax, 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:54.840 take Big Farmer for example, you know AstraZeneca who took 0:10:54.880 --> 0:10:57.080 a decision to go to Ireland and not US. It 0:10:57.120 --> 0:10:59.840 wasn't really the difference in corporation tax because they don't 0:11:00.360 --> 0:11:02.640 because it is so much research and development that they 0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:05.240 get all the allounces, et cetera. So I'm not saying 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:08.040 they're not factors, but they're not as significant as a thought. 0:11:08.760 --> 0:11:12.400 Do you think that the recent announcements are the right 0:11:12.480 --> 0:11:15.040 ones to take on the American Ira? 0:11:15.880 --> 0:11:18.160 I don't think we can take on the American Ira. 0:11:18.960 --> 0:11:21.559 The American Ira is based on printing a lot more 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:24.440 money than we ever will be able to, and I 0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:27.280 don't think we should try and compete with it. So 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:31.320 what I'm talking about and what some of the announcements 0:11:31.320 --> 0:11:36.040 have been are targeting investments stuff. So the purpose of 0:11:36.080 --> 0:11:39.320 having a business investment strategy that I'm proposing would be 0:11:39.360 --> 0:11:43.360 saying we can't do everything, but let's take things where 0:11:43.400 --> 0:11:47.440 we have a competitive advantage. Good quote, say, for example, 0:11:47.520 --> 0:11:51.439 take aircraft wing manufacturing. We're good at it. Airbus employed 0:11:51.440 --> 0:11:53.960 load of people there. If you ask the complaints of 0:11:54.000 --> 0:11:57.800 air Bus or Tyota in Derby or whatever, it's why 0:11:57.840 --> 0:12:01.199 don't the suppliers come here? We're having to import all 0:12:01.240 --> 0:12:04.959 these components. Can't you give them incentives like other countries do. 0:12:05.200 --> 0:12:08.520 So there's a cluster around Derby or a cluster around 0:12:08.840 --> 0:12:12.160 brought in in North Wales, and governments need to help 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:15.400 with that because we need to seduce foreign manufacturing companies 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:18.360 in this case to come over here and say here's 0:12:18.400 --> 0:12:22.800 a package, a bit of money, make sure that there's 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:26.040 a suitable site at a certain level of price, energy 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:29.920 connection skills, you know, getting skills set up in the 0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:33.559 area visas that you want. It's a package. And this 0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:36.440 is what a proactive investment strategy would do. We can't 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:38.360 say we'll do it for every company everywhere because we 0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:38.880 just don't have. 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:41.440 You call it a concierge service or something like that. 0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:47.880 Yes, well, yes there's not a person standing at the 0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:49.360 front of government in a nice. 0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:53.160 Uniform, but maybe there should they Maybe they should be. 0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:58.760 Yes, that's right, Yes you get your Foi grab and delberty. Yes, 0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:01.839 it's a nice way saying the other cliche is one 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:04.800 stop shop, but it's really saying that prospects have an 0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:07.760 account manager like they would in a business who's there 0:13:07.800 --> 0:13:10.040 to find out what it takes to incent them to 0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:12.440 come here, what we need to offer them and that 0:13:12.840 --> 0:13:16.600 so they wouldn't have to troop around different departments because 0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:18.640 at the moment you know they have to. They go 0:13:18.760 --> 0:13:21.320 to transport, they go to healthy, whatever it is in 0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:24.600 their field, and the business department it's very confusing. So 0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:27.280 if you're a big multinational, it's easier because you've got 0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:29.320 a room full of people you hire ex civil servants 0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:31.480 and what have you that know these things. But for 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:33.800 people that don't already invest here, it just makes it 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:35.000 very difficult for them. 0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:37.120 So where is this money that could have gone to 0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:38.599 the UK going. 0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:43.480 In no particular order. We've lost business to Spain, We've 0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:47.520 lost business to Ireland. Singapore is the sort of course 0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:51.760 celebra of a very very proactive government which is really 0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:55.520 insenting big money to people. We're losing things now to 0:13:55.559 --> 0:13:58.480 Abu Dabi the Middle East because they can offer them 0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:02.320 free energy and visas. Of course not a problem, but 0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:05.800 it is. It's a general picture. The United States we 0:14:05.840 --> 0:14:08.320 are losing a lot to but that's a global policy. 0:14:08.320 --> 0:14:10.240 We can't because they're basically saying, if you want to 0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:12.920 supply the American market, then you've got to be located here. 0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:14.920 That's I'm sure, right, Yeah, that's. 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:17.960 A protectionist policy, which has its good points and bad points, 0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:20.000 but that's something you can't compete with. 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:23.960 How quickly do you think you're the benefits of what 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:28.440 you're proposing will come about? They sometimes and we've read 0:14:28.480 --> 0:14:30.640 your document. Is it is it ten years time? Is 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:32.400 it a couple of years time? It's certainly not sort 0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:33.640 of three or four months as I. 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:35.720 No, it's definitely not three or four months. I think 0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:40.160 because the reason this is a real politicians answer, because 0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:42.600 it's a bit of a waffly answer. I don't know, 0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:43.840 of course, who knows. 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:46.440 I don't think many politicians say I don't know. Actually, 0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:50.840 question of recovering. 0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:55.240 Yes, that's right, because the reason I don't know is 0:14:55.240 --> 0:14:58.800 because a lot of it is changing sentiments. The perception 0:15:00.120 --> 0:15:04.200 overseas investors of this country is actually not as good 0:15:04.200 --> 0:15:07.120 as it should be. But when they see a business 0:15:07.240 --> 0:15:10.920 investment strategy, when they see a senior investment minister, they 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:13.520 might think, well, they mean business now, and we're invited 0:15:13.560 --> 0:15:16.440 to good events here and things are beginning to change. 0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:21.360 And I'm afraid Boris did not help matters. Theresa did 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:24.440 not help matters because she had to be obsessed with Brexit. 0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:31.520 Boris had other priorities. But it's the cliche of turning 0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:34.480 the oil tanker. It's not turning it on. It's not right. 0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:37.000 Here's the bank, it's open, come and get it. Children. 0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:40.400 It's not like that. And I think you know these 0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:41.440 things take time. 0:15:42.160 --> 0:15:44.280 But I guess the problem is the timelines, because you 0:15:44.320 --> 0:15:47.120 don't know what the next regime is. Given how far 0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:49.680 behind the Conservatives are in the poll, that it makes 0:15:49.720 --> 0:15:51.960 it difficult over the next six months, eight months, nine 0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:53.440 months to attract more money. 0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:56.200 You're not suggesting the Conservatives might lose the next election. 0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:58.760 Surely, am I. 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:03.920 It's very choppy outside outside, But I do think that 0:16:04.040 --> 0:16:06.840 a lot of the stuff I recommend is really cross 0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:11.760 party and is not political and won't be pushed around. 0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:16.800 As an electoral labor. Yes, I have brief Jonathan Reynolds 0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:19.200 and Rachel Reeves on this. I felt I had to 0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:21.400 because the last thing I wanted was Jeremy Hunt saying 0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:24.760 that the autumn statement we were accepted and them saying no. 0:16:25.560 --> 0:16:29.240 And he's spoken publicly Johnny at PwC, I think a 0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:32.120 couple of weeks ago, which he was very encouraging about it. 0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:35.600 So I have. But the only caveat that I'd say 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:39.600 is that I've learnt in election years, I always say, 0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:43.080 nice people become horrible people because there is this mad 0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:47.000 frenzy of attack. And I just hope this doesn't get 0:16:47.040 --> 0:16:48.640 sucked into it. I don't think it. 0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:49.600 I don't think it will. 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:52.680 You know, you can imagine next year we'll have, Oh, 0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:55.600 I'm sure Conserves will come up with an anti Kire 0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:59.000 smear campaign. They'll come up with tons of stuff about 0:16:59.120 --> 0:17:02.400 Rishi and the midillionaire banker and this and that. I mean, 0:17:02.440 --> 0:17:05.320 it's pathetic, but that happens in election years, and I 0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:06.800 just hope this doesn't get swept. 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:09.480 I think I think that the omens are decent for 0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:13.600 you because both sides of the divide need to grow 0:17:13.760 --> 0:17:15.679 the pie we keep calling it, but they need They 0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:17.720 need to increase the amount of money that the UK 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:20.960 can make, fundamentally in the labour's case, so that they 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:22.920 can start to spend in a way that a labor 0:17:22.920 --> 0:17:25.760 government would like to and the you knows same with 0:17:25.880 --> 0:17:27.800 different values for the Tory side of things. So I 0:17:27.800 --> 0:17:29.639 think you are probably protected. 0:17:30.000 --> 0:17:33.840 I'm hopeful, but I guess the problem is what you're 0:17:34.840 --> 0:17:37.360 talking about is operationally, I have to get money from 0:17:37.359 --> 0:17:39.439 A to B and get quick answers. You also have 0:17:39.480 --> 0:17:42.080 a structural problem with the economy, which is low productivity. 0:17:42.480 --> 0:17:46.240 It's difficult to find jobs and those are huge barriers 0:17:46.560 --> 0:17:48.040 to actually big investors come now. 0:17:48.080 --> 0:17:52.000 But conversely, investment will help cure those problems. 0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:53.760 It's a catch twenty two, it. 0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:57.399 Is, and that's why the government has to upfront resources 0:17:57.440 --> 0:18:00.960 to do it, because you know the spin off is 0:18:01.080 --> 0:18:03.960 very significant and it isn't I call it foreign direct 0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:06.880 investment simply because that's what Jeremy Hunt asked me to do. 0:18:07.080 --> 0:18:10.040 It's all investment. If you if your GSK or something, 0:18:10.119 --> 0:18:12.240 your pound is as good in any country in the world, 0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:14.520 as it is here. The fact that you're located here 0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:17.560 just as coincidental. So it is. You know, we have 0:18:18.640 --> 0:18:23.240 we have rough figures. You know, we invest, including domestic 0:18:23.400 --> 0:18:26.240 and for in about ten percent of our GDP in 0:18:26.240 --> 0:18:30.040 investment other countries in the g whatever it is about 0:18:30.080 --> 0:18:34.200 twelve percent. The difference is fifty billion pounds a year. Well, 0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:37.120 if a third of that comes from extra foreign investment 0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:39.120 or half, it's very significant. 0:18:40.080 --> 0:18:42.720 When you speak to a lot of big investors, they 0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:45.200 just ask, well, what's going on with Randa? I mean, 0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:47.240 how do you answer? Again? You can, you can have 0:18:47.280 --> 0:18:51.240 all the best systems in place, but if investors don't 0:18:51.280 --> 0:18:54.720 really understand the longer term policy of a country, is 0:18:54.720 --> 0:18:58.160 that not impossible to then adjust and attract investment. 0:18:58.320 --> 0:19:01.359 Well, but why is Ruanda relat to? I know you 0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:03.280 asked the questions, I'm supposed to answer it, But why 0:19:03.600 --> 0:19:04.639 is Ruanda relevant to? 0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:07.440 They don't understand? Because they don't understand. 0:19:07.080 --> 0:19:09.760 And I think it adds to a sense that the 0:19:09.760 --> 0:19:11.360 government cannot do what it wants. 0:19:11.560 --> 0:19:14.320 It's very valid to say anything that leads to instability 0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:20.720 will lead to investment decisions. You know, big companies told 0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:25.119 me that because of Liz Trusts episode, they were factoring 0:19:25.160 --> 0:19:28.800 in a risk factor in their calculations, which they've never 0:19:28.840 --> 0:19:31.280 done for this country before. Plenty of countries they do, 0:19:31.520 --> 0:19:34.560 you know, they do their projections and they put in 0:19:34.600 --> 0:19:38.200 a percentage risk, a bit like an insurance company would, 0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:41.280 and they were the first time in the history they've 0:19:41.280 --> 0:19:43.600 done it for this country. I had hoped that the 0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:46.800 combination of Rishi Sunak and Jamie Hunt would have stopped 0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:49.960 that and it returned to normal. But if there are 0:19:49.960 --> 0:19:53.040 stuff like Ruanda, maybe the election itself, even though if 0:19:53.119 --> 0:19:55.439 Labour's saying the kind of things they are about business 0:19:55.520 --> 0:19:58.800 and investment, and I have every reason where they are publicly, 0:19:59.400 --> 0:20:02.399 maybe that will be okay. Whereas Corbyn, of course, there 0:20:02.520 --> 0:20:03.480 was a total fear. 0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:06.399 Do you think that the UK is held to higher 0:20:06.440 --> 0:20:10.920 standard than other countries in Europe to attract investment? 0:20:11.200 --> 0:20:13.760 No, I don't think so. But one of the things 0:20:13.760 --> 0:20:18.600 that I absolutely amazing is that other countries have political turmoil. 0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:22.200 We've had it here within well, we've had three changes 0:20:22.240 --> 0:20:25.200 to policy, a lot within one political party. But other 0:20:25.240 --> 0:20:27.760 countries who have it much worse than us, like Spain, 0:20:27.840 --> 0:20:32.199 for example, who people generally they don't have a government, 0:20:32.320 --> 0:20:35.520 or it's a minority government, or there's some political problems. 0:20:36.160 --> 0:20:39.960 Yet they managed to keep the business strategy the investment 0:20:40.040 --> 0:20:43.520 strategy separate. So no one that looks at Spain thinks 0:20:43.560 --> 0:20:47.159 there's a political risk. Look at Ireland, you've got what 0:20:47.240 --> 0:20:50.879 I read, every possibility of shin Fein, basically a revolutionary 0:20:50.920 --> 0:20:53.760 party taking over the country. But no one's saying in 0:20:53.800 --> 0:20:56.600 the Irish Investment Agency, oh, there'll be a change of it. 0:20:56.960 --> 0:20:59.160 The leader of chin Fein makes one speech saying, look, 0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:02.160 it's business as you. As far as that's concerned, everyone's 0:21:02.200 --> 0:21:05.320 fine with it. But with us there is because of 0:21:05.440 --> 0:21:09.760 what the political turmoil, the lack of consistency in policy, 0:21:10.720 --> 0:21:14.399 and fear of anarchy, which was in the case of 0:21:14.480 --> 0:21:17.440 Liszt trusts and quality. I'm afraid not that's what they intended, 0:21:17.480 --> 0:21:20.320 but that's what came. There is this fear of lack 0:21:20.359 --> 0:21:23.440 of consistency that does affect investment. 0:21:23.840 --> 0:21:25.760 Yeah, but the UK is meant to be best in class. 0:21:25.800 --> 0:21:29.479 I mean, the southern countries, Spain, Greece to the all 0:21:29.560 --> 0:21:34.600 had economic crisis. The UK should be better, I hope. 0:21:34.640 --> 0:21:40.280