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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough? They're running a gay.

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Speaker 1: So smooth, so sweet, splendid sisting just glorious ex.

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Speaker 2: Procution, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort

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Speaker 2: four thousand percent of the time. How shot with that?

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Speaker 1: Shop with mind, buddy, and that's why you see your

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Speaker 1: beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 3: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The one it's left to of the wide eyed.

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Speaker 2: Drill bibus, How old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to Wondergolf, the soccerbetic podcast from the

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Speaker 1: Action Network. My name is Michael Lebuff and joining me

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Speaker 1: in just a moment will be my Action Kyle Leagues,

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Speaker 1: BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo. The three of us will

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Speaker 1: go on a soccer handicapping adventure as we break down

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Speaker 1: all ten Premier League matches coming away this weekend, touch

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Speaker 1: on the Bundesliga, Siria A, La Liga, throw out some

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Speaker 1: underdogs and give out our best bets in the EPO

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Speaker 1: this weekend, We're going to try to do this real

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Speaker 1: quick as best weekend there's a lot of COVID issues

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Speaker 1: going on, since there's some scheduling wackiness. We're also recording

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Speaker 1: this on Wednesday night, so there's two games on Thursday

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Speaker 1: that need to be played in Bja, who lives in Iowa,

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Speaker 1: and there is a storm descending on his neighborhood, so

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Speaker 1: we want to get him in and out, and we

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Speaker 1: do wish you the best of luck to Ubj and

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Speaker 1: too everybody else who will be affected by the weather.

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Speaker 1: And on that note, we will turn our attention to

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Speaker 1: the footy and we're going to start at Tottenham hot

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Speaker 1: Spur Stadium where this Tottenham Hotspur Antoniocante Spurs are plus

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Speaker 1: four twenty five hunderdogs hosting Liverpool who reminus one seventy

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Speaker 1: on the money line the draw us plus three thirty.

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Speaker 1: This is in eleven thirty am Sunday kickoff. Neither one

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Speaker 1: of these tea teams has played by the time we're

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Speaker 1: recording this, but I mean it's pretty We can do

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Speaker 1: our best to assume what Liverpool is going to do

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Speaker 1: to Newcastle. Spurs is a little different with Lester, but

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Speaker 1: you know, we like to think that one game shouldn't

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Speaker 1: really change a handicap here. We shouldn't overreact, so let's

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Speaker 1: just get right to it. Spurs, their schedule has been

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Speaker 1: all over the place since Conte's taken over. I think

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Speaker 1: they've only played three Premier League matches and one or

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Speaker 1: two Conference League matches since November twenty eighth. Meanwhile, Liverpool,

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Speaker 1: they've continued to roll. Their metrics are sound everywhere you look.

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Speaker 1: Because does their defense maybe give up a couple one

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Speaker 1: too many big chances if you're going to contend for title. Sure,

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Speaker 1: but their offense has been able to make up for

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Speaker 1: those issues, those minor blemishes on defense. I do think

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Speaker 1: that their only way I would play this match is

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Speaker 1: a Tottenham Hotspur money line, you know, for fun. Bet,

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Speaker 1: I don't think there's much value on it. Bja, you

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Speaker 1: disagree though, You're going to go against Spurs here, aren't you. Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I like Liverpool minus one to talking fifteen stop. I mean,

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Speaker 3: it's hard for me not to square out here with

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Speaker 3: all the COVID issues and injury issues that Tottenham has

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Speaker 3: right now going into we obviously don't know who's going

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Speaker 3: to you know, you playing on Thursday, but as of

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Speaker 3: right now, Brian Gil Emerson, hung Son, Oliver Skip Lucas Mora,

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Speaker 3: Sergio Reggaon and Christian Romero are all going to be

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Speaker 3: out for this weekend's match, which throws a huge loop

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Speaker 3: and I really don't know how Tottenham are going to

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Speaker 3: compete without all those guys on the field. Now, they

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Speaker 3: have been really good Antonio Conte's four matches in the

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Speaker 3: Premier League six point nine expected goals for only three

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Speaker 3: point five against, but they didn't exactly face a murderer's row,

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Speaker 3: got an injury riddled Everdon squad leads Brentford and Norwich,

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Speaker 3: so pretty easy schedule. This will be their first big test.

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Speaker 3: It's just hard for me not to envision a scenario

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Speaker 3: where Tottenham just gets doesn't get pinned into their in

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Speaker 3: final third for the entire match, with Liverpool's press just

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Speaker 3: being overwhelming. So I have Liverpool projected at minus one

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Speaker 3: sixty five, so I'm gonna go with their spread minus

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Speaker 3: one and plus one fifteen.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is going to be Liverpool on

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Speaker 1: the front foot end. The question will be ken Tottenham

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Speaker 1: find a way to pass through the press, and I

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Speaker 1: don't know if they can. But Anthe, you're a Spurs fan,

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Speaker 1: I know you're not betting aside but before you do,

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Speaker 1: can you make any case to back you know, maybe

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Speaker 1: a little sprinkle for those Spurs fans out there.

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Speaker 2: You know, if you skinny Spurs fan, they'll tell you this.

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Speaker 2: There's one team that has owned Spurs for the better

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Speaker 2: part of five years, six years. You know, I can

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Speaker 2: believe in more. Uh, dating back to even win Spurs

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Speaker 2: were one of the best teams in the league under Pochatino.

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Speaker 2: It always was kind of Liverpool that found the way

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Speaker 2: to get the late goal against Tottenham or or that

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Speaker 2: you know always had our number. And so I really

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Speaker 2: generally don't like the matchup here, but I do think

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Speaker 2: Tottenham has some attacking regression coming. I understand that Harry

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Speaker 2: Kane's numbers are way down in terms of chances created

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Speaker 2: this year, but he's also in the worst finishing slump

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Speaker 2: of his career. Kane has finished above his actually every

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Speaker 2: year that he's been a main striker in this league.

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Speaker 2: This year three point eight expected goals, only one goal.

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Speaker 2: Let me take you through some of the numbers on that.

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Speaker 2: So his goals per shot typically range between point two

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Speaker 2: to two to point one four, So one out of

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Speaker 2: every five to seven shots Harry Kane will typically score

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Speaker 2: point two two point one, six point two one point

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Speaker 2: one four, pretty much steady year of his career, finishing

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Speaker 2: rate above average, well above average, but not you know,

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Speaker 2: anything crazy that unsustainable this year point zero three, one

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Speaker 2: of the very thirty three shots that Kane has taken

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Speaker 2: has gone in. And I don't expect Kane to remain

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Speaker 2: that low for long. I expect him to snap out

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Speaker 2: of that little funk. He's got regression coming. So on

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Speaker 2: return to training today, it does not appear that he's going.

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Speaker 2: That's Wednesday. He does not appear he's going to play Thursday.

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Speaker 2: He may come off the bench because fitness is a concern.

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Speaker 2: From what I'm hearing, sounds like he's coming off the

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Speaker 2: bench Thursday against Leicester. We'll see how he looks, but

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Speaker 2: I'm expecting him to start on Sunday. So I think

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Speaker 2: Tottenham's attack will be fine. I think they'll get a

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Speaker 2: goal here, but I still have some questions about the

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Speaker 2: defense as well. They have not played a good attack

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Speaker 2: under Conte yet. That is a big red flag given

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Speaker 2: the personnel and the questions I have about them. So

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Speaker 2: I think Liverpool will score here. I like both teams

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Speaker 2: to score and over two and a half. You can

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Speaker 2: find that at minus one oh five. That's what I

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Speaker 2: played for this. I think it's going to be a

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Speaker 2: pretty open game, but like I said, Tottam's attacking regression

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Speaker 2: in Liverpool being a little more open at the back

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Speaker 2: than maybe the title campaign a couple of years ago.

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Speaker 2: I think there will be some goals.

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Speaker 1: Should note that that is the eleven thirty am start

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Speaker 1: on Sunday morning. So now let's look at the rest

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Speaker 1: of the board, starting with the seven thirty am kickoff

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Speaker 1: on Saturday morning, and that's Manchester United odds on minus

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Speaker 1: one ninety favorites against Brighton Graham Potter Seagulls, who are

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Speaker 1: five to one on the money line the draws plus

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Speaker 1: three fifty. Man United did not play over the midwek

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Speaker 1: because of a COVID outbreak. Brighton did and they lost

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Speaker 1: a tight one to Wolves one nil. I think it's

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Speaker 1: pretty clear who the three of us would like to

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Speaker 1: bet in this one. It's definitely Brighton. We've been going

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Speaker 1: against Manchester United. I think that the market sentiment is

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Speaker 1: a little too high on them just because they switch managers.

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Speaker 1: Have you seen an improvement? Sure we'd have, but I

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Speaker 1: don't think it warrants this big a number against a

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Speaker 1: team like Brighton that can hang with the big boys,

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Speaker 1: like they might get beat by a team down the table,

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Speaker 1: but they also can beat the teams who are way

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Speaker 1: above them in the standings. They hung with Liverpool already

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Speaker 1: the season. They've given pretty good account to themselves against

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Speaker 1: teams like Manchester United undergrad Potter in his tenure. So

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Speaker 1: I'm going to take a shot here. Five to one

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Speaker 1: is a high number. Most people are probably looking at

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Speaker 1: a play on the spread here instead, but I do

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Speaker 1: tend to go towards the money lines rather than spreads here,

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Speaker 1: and the roller coaster is sometimes not that fun, but

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Speaker 1: sometimes it can be, and I'm hoping.

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Speaker 3: It is here.

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Speaker 1: I think that Brighton's ability to pass through any press

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Speaker 1: that Ralph Rangnick throws at them does set them up

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Speaker 1: pretty well here. So I'm backing the Seagulls team that

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Speaker 1: was near and dear to our heart for a lot

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Speaker 1: of last season, not as much this season. Bjay, Do

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Speaker 1: you have your Seagulls jersey on Saturday morning?

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Speaker 3: Absolutely? Yeah, I totally agree with you. Brighton plus one

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Speaker 3: at minus one o five. You know, obviously Manchester United

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Speaker 3: got their match against Brentford postponed on Tuesday. So you know,

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Speaker 3: going back to their last two matches against Norwich and

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Speaker 3: Crystal Palace, they weren't really that great. Their pressing numbers

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Speaker 3: were up, they were pressing a lot better. But this

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Speaker 3: is a Brighton team that's the third best team in

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Speaker 3: the Premier League against pressure, third and offensive pass for defense,

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Speaker 3: faction and pressure success right allowed, and we saw it

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Speaker 3: on Wednesday with Waypoo and Basuma on the field together.

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Speaker 3: It is really really hard to play the ball out

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Speaker 3: of the back and get it moving forward against those

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Speaker 3: two guys because they're two of the best pressing midfielders

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Speaker 3: in the Premier League. The biggest thing I'm looking out

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Speaker 3: for in this one is Brighton's got to be quicker

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Speaker 3: on their build up play and going forward. They can't

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Speaker 3: do this slow, pragmatic build up play against Manchester United,

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Speaker 3: because that's how you beat Manchester United, as we've seen

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Speaker 3: with teams like Liverpool and Manchester City, is you have

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Speaker 3: to be direct and you have to be quick to

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Speaker 3: attack their back line when Fred and Scott mctomany get

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Speaker 3: pushed too far up the field. So Brighton's a very

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Speaker 3: very good pressing team top four and pass per defensive

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Speaker 3: action and pressure success rates, so they will be able

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Speaker 3: to win the ball against Manchester United. The question is

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Speaker 3: can they get it moving forward fast enough. Anthony mentioned

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Speaker 3: it last episode. They're starting two center backs are out

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Speaker 3: for this one. Joel Veltman played pretty good alongside I

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Speaker 3: can't remember the other guy who's alongside, but having Basuma

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Speaker 3: and Waipoo there together it helps protect that back line.

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Speaker 3: I think Manchester United is pretty overvalued here, especially without

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Speaker 3: Pogba or Victor Lindelof potentially no O veran A and

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Speaker 3: Cavani still and obviously we still at the time taking

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Speaker 3: this I still or maybe you guys know who's actually

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Speaker 3: from Manchester United who tested positive due to COVID So

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Speaker 3: I only have United projected at plus one oh seven,

200
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Speaker 3: so I love Brighton plus one at one five.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely want to keep an eye on for

202
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Speaker 1: the lineups because this line could fly in a one

203
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Speaker 1: hundred different directions depending on who's in and who's out

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Speaker 1: for United and who knows what's going to happen with

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Speaker 1: Brighton over the next few days with the way that

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Speaker 1: the league's been going, anth you got anything on this

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Speaker 1: one or should we move on to Western.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, the jury list is really long for

209
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Speaker 2: Brighton now, and I'm a little bit concerned about our Seagulls.

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Speaker 2: Stephen Alzate looks like he's still going to be out

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Speaker 2: for this one. Lewis Dunk is going to be out

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Speaker 2: until January. Both of those guys missed today, so not

213
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Speaker 2: the biggest loss. They will get Shane Duffy back from

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Speaker 2: yellow card suspension, but now they're losing Basuma, so it's

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Speaker 2: really Neil Mapei has COVID, Pascal Gross has COVID. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I feel like half of our handicapping now is just

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Speaker 2: pulling up the injury report and then reading off who's

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Speaker 2: injured and who's not. I mean, it's crazy the number

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Speaker 2: of players that aren't available, And for that reason, I'm

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Speaker 2: staying away. We don't know who's available for United.

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Speaker 1: We don't know if.

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Speaker 2: Brighton has eleven good players they can run out there

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Speaker 2: on Saturday. So it's a really tricky spot and I'm

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Speaker 2: staying away entirely at this point. If we get to

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Speaker 2: game day and you know, some of these guys that

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Speaker 2: have COVID, like Malpey, are backed, might look at some

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Speaker 2: Brighton but otherwise staying away.

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Speaker 1: Ten am kickoff at the London Stadium. West Ham minus

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Speaker 1: three hundred odds on favorites against Norich City plus eight

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Speaker 1: fifty the draw plus four twenty five Norch City zero

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Speaker 1: goals on two point five to six expectacles in their

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Speaker 1: last three matches. Meanwhile, West Ham they're all over the

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Speaker 1: place since they beat Liverpool really a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 1: about a month ago. Now, I think it's Nordch City

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Speaker 1: or nothing here. But like with the other teams, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna stay away. I think Norch gets on the board.

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Speaker 1: I think that's the important thing here is they are

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Speaker 1: generating enough chances where they should be scoring a goal

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Speaker 1: a game or a goal every other game, which, yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's not great, But when you're looking at a team

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Speaker 1: plus eight fifty, you're asking yourself can this team score?

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Speaker 1: And I think they can. Against the west Ham back

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Speaker 1: line we've touched on a lot, is depleted and has

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Speaker 1: been struggling just a little bit, allowing teams like Arsenal

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Speaker 1: Ran Rampant a little bit over them today. So it's

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Speaker 1: Norch or nothing for me right now. Probably pass, but

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Speaker 1: if it's not continues to tick up I'm gonna, unfortunately

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Speaker 1: be with Dean Smith and the boys. Anthony, what do

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Speaker 1: you have for this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Dean Smith and the boys here on

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Speaker 2: the road. Look, west Ham is clearly not quite the

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Speaker 2: level of the rest of the top six teams in

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Speaker 2: terms of overall squad depth and talent. And credit to

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Speaker 2: David Moyes for doing an excellent job, but it's starting

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Speaker 2: to look like they're not quite on the level and

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Speaker 2: that's been very evident the last four or five matches

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Speaker 2: I think. And they had a good result against Chelsea

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Speaker 2: and what I thought was a solid performance, but only

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Speaker 2: seven pats into the penalty area against Burnley, only three

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Speaker 2: against Chelsea, only seven against Brighton. That the team that

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Speaker 2: prior to that was averaging well over ten a game.

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Speaker 2: So you're not seeing quite as much ball possession, quite

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Speaker 2: as much dominance of those lower sides that you'd expect

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Speaker 2: to see from west Ham. So I'm going with Norwich

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Speaker 2: plus one and a half. Here. You mentioned the attacking

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Speaker 2: numbers on Norwich. I mean they never score a lot

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Speaker 2: of that's Josh Sargent. He's out with COVID and so

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Speaker 2: that might actually be a you know, not that it's

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Speaker 2: a positive that he has COVID, but it is a

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Speaker 2: positive for the Norwich attack in the sense that they'll

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Speaker 2: be able to give some guys who weren't getting as

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Speaker 2: many minutes some chances. I was on Cobbach I thought

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Speaker 2: played pretty well for Norwich. He's been starting more or

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Speaker 2: at least got a start, and will be starting more

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Speaker 2: going forward. And so my projections make this about one

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Speaker 2: point one, and so I'm okay taking one point five

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Speaker 2: at minus one twenty five taking Norwich. I don't think

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Speaker 2: west Ham's going to be able to get margin here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we have seen Dean Smith do a pretty decent

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Speaker 1: job with the defense, although they looked a little bit

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Speaker 1: of a mess when aston Villa was going forward. This

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Speaker 1: past week, moving on Southampton plus one oh five hosting

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Speaker 1: Brentford The Bees Buzz Brentford's plus two fifty five the

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Speaker 1: Trows plus two sixty ten am kickoff. Brentford is one

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Speaker 1: of the teams with one of six teams right now

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Speaker 1: with a positive expected gold differential per ninety on the season.

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Speaker 1: It's just been a really impressive first season for them.

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Speaker 1: Thomas Frank has done a great job. They're on the

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Speaker 1: same page. They know exactly what they're doing. They all

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Speaker 1: play within their roles. That stuff I think really does

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Speaker 1: matter and helps. But I think the key to this

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Speaker 1: handicap is Brentford's defense. They are a really solid Like

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Speaker 1: Anthony has said throughout the show, maybe their numbers were

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Speaker 1: unsustainable for an entire season, and yeah, that's probably true,

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Speaker 1: but that doesn't mean that they're going to just creater

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Speaker 1: and they haven't really And when you're playing Southampton, you

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Speaker 1: want to be able as a team to prevent scoring

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Speaker 1: chances because Southampton creates scoring chances, but they also give

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Speaker 1: up a lot. So I think the matchup here is

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Speaker 1: good Brentford's strong defense against a good chance creating offense

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Speaker 1: of Southampton. Brentford can handle a press too. We saw

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Speaker 1: it against teams like you know, Liverpool and et cetera.

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Speaker 1: So like, I think this is a good matchup for

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Speaker 1: the Bees. I know neither one of you guys are

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Speaker 1: too hot on it right now, but BJ is there

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Speaker 1: anything you can pull out from this one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I lean towards Brentford, but I'm gonna need a way

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Speaker 3: better number for it. Ivan TONI will be back, which

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Speaker 3: is good news for the Bees. You know, provide more

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Speaker 3: attacking talent upfront. The biggest thing though, is that you know,

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Speaker 3: I know they've played well through the press versus some teams,

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Speaker 3: but overall for the season seventeenth in pressure success, right

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Speaker 3: allowed in fourteenth and offensive pass per defensive action. So

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Speaker 3: they looked a lot better obvious their last match that

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Speaker 3: we've seen against Watford playing through their press. But Watford's

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Speaker 3: one of the worst pressing teams in the Premier League.

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Speaker 3: So going with Southampton's press, it does concern me a

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Speaker 3: little bit that they might not be able to get

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Speaker 3: out of their own half. I really just honestly need

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Speaker 3: a better number on this one for Brentford. If I

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Speaker 3: can get them, I don't know if we'll ever get there,

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Speaker 3: but if I get them, you know, plus half a

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Speaker 3: goal at a decent number, I'm probably gonna play it.

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Speaker 2: The interesting thing about this for me is that Brentford's

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Speaker 2: away numbers just aren't quite there. They've been very good

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Speaker 2: at the Brentford Community Stadium taking off some pretty big teams,

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Speaker 2: not quite that same level of production away from home,

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Speaker 2: and that's that's why I'm staying away here. If anything,

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Speaker 2: lean towards the under because I do think Brentford can

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Speaker 2: defend Southampton, but I don't really see them, you know,

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Speaker 2: scoring a bunch here, and that keeps me off the moneyline.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Southampton's offense, like you said, it's about it.

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Speaker 1: Can you defend against Southampton? And I think they can.

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Speaker 1: They allowed one and a half expected goals in a

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Speaker 1: two two drug against Palace that they probably were a

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Speaker 1: little lucky to eke out two great goals from Southampton.

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Speaker 1: So I just think that the I think the number

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Speaker 1: is good enough Brentford in this matchup because I think

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Speaker 1: they're going to get on the board against the leaky

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Speaker 1: defense and then I trust their defense to protect that lead,

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Speaker 1: whether it's one nil, two one, whatever it is. Moving

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Speaker 1: on to Stephen Girard's assen Villa minus one thirty five

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Speaker 1: hosting Burnley plus three seventy on the money line, the

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Speaker 1: draws plus two eighty five another ten am kickoff on

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Speaker 1: Saturday morning. I think it's a funny thing that's happening

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Speaker 1: with Stephen Girard the way soccer Twitter is, especially Premier

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Speaker 1: League Twitter, when someone like Gerard, who you know, we've

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Speaker 1: seen it with like Frank Lampard or you know, Andrea Pierrelo,

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Speaker 1: whoever it is. When a former big star takes over

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Speaker 1: a team, everybody really really wants to just sink their

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Speaker 1: teeth in and tear them down. And for Girard, he's

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Speaker 1: been impressive and now everyone's just throwing laurels at him

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Speaker 1: left and right. So I do think that this number

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Speaker 1: they'd be good too, by the way, like they've allowed

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Speaker 1: under one expected goal in three out of his five

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Speaker 1: matches in the Premier League, and the two that they

358
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Speaker 1: didn't were against City in Liverpool. However, I just think

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Speaker 1: this number is a little too rich on Villa. I

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Speaker 1: was burnly likely to win this one. No, that's why

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Speaker 1: the big underdog. But they're a tough team. They're like,

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Speaker 1: they're a tough team to prepare for. They're a bit

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Speaker 1: of an outlier in a league in the Premier League

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00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:08,640
Speaker 1: at Sean Ditsch, I think is actually underrated at this

365
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Speaker 1: point as a manager, despite where Burnley is on the table.

366
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Speaker 1: So I think it's a good sell high spot and

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Speaker 1: ask the Villa a team who's still like their offensive

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00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,040
Speaker 1: numbers are still not great under Gerard, but their defensive

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Speaker 1: numbers are strong. But I think Burnley could get on

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Speaker 1: the board whether it's on a set piece or however,

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Speaker 1: they managed to and hopefully hold on for dear life.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna take a shot Burnley on the money

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Speaker 1: line here, Anthony, are you coming with me?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean clearly the price is inflated on Villa

375
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Speaker 2: and I lean towards Burnley as well. Plus a half.

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00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:36,440
Speaker 2: Maxwell Korney looks like he's going to be back for

377
00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:39,600
Speaker 2: this match, which he's critically important for the Burnley attack.

378
00:16:40,160 --> 00:16:43,560
Speaker 2: Villa's gonna be without Marvelous into Coamba one great name,

379
00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,720
Speaker 2: two great defensive midfielder who does a lot of ball

380
00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:49,480
Speaker 2: winning for Villa, and he was injured in the middle

381
00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:53,040
Speaker 2: of the game last time around in the win against Norwich,

382
00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:56,960
Speaker 2: so losing him hurts. But Villa seems to be really

383
00:16:57,040 --> 00:16:59,480
Speaker 2: in a comfortable spot the way they've been playing, in

384
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Speaker 2: the sense that they have a pretty defined eleven and

385
00:17:02,800 --> 00:17:05,200
Speaker 2: then they've kept most of that eleven relatively healthy, and

386
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Speaker 2: that's why you're seeing the improved performances defensively and they're

387
00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:10,840
Speaker 2: getting more out of Holy Watkins. Now, this is the

388
00:17:10,880 --> 00:17:13,159
Speaker 2: definition of the new manager bounds. But there's always a

389
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Speaker 2: time when a team becomes a little overinflated and That's

390
00:17:15,320 --> 00:17:17,960
Speaker 2: what we've got here with Villa, and I'm probably gonna

391
00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:19,359
Speaker 2: up staying away. But if we get to you know,

392
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Speaker 2: minus one forty five minus one fifty on Villa, then

393
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Speaker 2: I'll be taking some Burnley might even get a plus

394
00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:25,680
Speaker 2: one with a little juice. I really like that because

395
00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:27,359
Speaker 2: I don't think Villa's gonna be able to get margin here,

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Speaker 2: but lean towards Burnley for now, I'm staying away Burnley.

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Speaker 1: They had their match postpone this week, right, Yeah, so

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00:17:33,720 --> 00:17:35,960
Speaker 1: it's another you know, another team, maybe a rest good

399
00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,119
Speaker 1: rest spot for them as well. BJ What do you

400
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:38,720
Speaker 1: see in this one?

401
00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna I've already played Burnley minus or plus

402
00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:43,640
Speaker 3: taffa goal at plus one fifteen. I think the price

403
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:45,959
Speaker 3: is good enough right now, especially with Max Hill Corny back.

404
00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:47,720
Speaker 3: Like anything mentioned it, I mean, this is just a

405
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:50,920
Speaker 3: classic Aston. Villa's overvalued. You know, they've been good under

406
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:53,480
Speaker 3: Jerrard minus point five expected gold of frenchvill and his

407
00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:55,399
Speaker 3: six matches in charge. But you know, granted two of

408
00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:57,280
Speaker 3: them were against Manchester City and Liverpool, so you kind

409
00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:58,399
Speaker 3: of got to give them a little bit of a

410
00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:01,560
Speaker 3: boost there. But Villa overall for the season, I understand

411
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Speaker 3: they've been more organized and better defensively. They're really bad

412
00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:07,560
Speaker 3: against corners four point three expected goals allowed off corners

413
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:09,639
Speaker 3: this season, which is one of the highest marks in

414
00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,320
Speaker 3: the Premier League, and that's how Burnley obviously creates most

415
00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:14,000
Speaker 3: of their chances. They're also middle of the road and

416
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Speaker 3: defending crosses and Burnley has the most process of the season.

417
00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:19,040
Speaker 3: So Burnley will have some advantages offensively and I do

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Speaker 3: think they'll be able to create a few high quality chances.

419
00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,399
Speaker 3: The rest I think will be very beneficial to the

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00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:27,040
Speaker 3: Clarit's in this one and I only have aston Ville

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Speaker 3: projected at even money, so I love Burnley plus half

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00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:31,320
Speaker 3: a goal if you can get plus one fifteen or better.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, if you go back and look at

424
00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:35,200
Speaker 2: Burnley's results, they had to snow out against Spurs so

425
00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:37,840
Speaker 2: they didn't play the twenty eighth. Then they had the

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Speaker 2: midweek match against Wolves which was a nil noil thriller.

427
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Speaker 2: Then they had the one nil loss to Newcastle, another

428
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Speaker 2: thriller at the weekend, and then another weekend match last weekend,

429
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Speaker 2: the nil nil jarw with west Ham, which I thought

430
00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:51,160
Speaker 2: they were the better team in, and then they get

431
00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:54,160
Speaker 2: another midweek match canceled and then they'll have another weekend match.

432
00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:57,840
Speaker 2: So Burnley have now not either not played or scored

433
00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,000
Speaker 2: in their last five matches. So it's pretty It's been

434
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,199
Speaker 2: a while since Burnley fans have had something to celebrate here,

435
00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:05,680
Speaker 2: but I do think, you know, maybe they'll get on

436
00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:07,760
Speaker 2: the board here if Corney is back. He really improves

437
00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:10,440
Speaker 2: that attack, and like Bja mentioned with the crosses and

438
00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:13,320
Speaker 2: the set pieces, Villa has been a little better on

439
00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:16,879
Speaker 2: set pieces, but you know, at a certain point Burnley's

440
00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:19,359
Speaker 2: that's how they score goals and that's what they do,

441
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:23,080
Speaker 2: and so it's very difficult to keep them off of

442
00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:26,760
Speaker 2: the set pieces, especially in a spot where, like we mentioned,

443
00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:28,080
Speaker 2: Villa's a bit overpriced.

444
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:32,439
Speaker 1: Moving on to Watford plus two twenty at home hosting

445
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,000
Speaker 1: Crystal Palace plus one twenty five the Dress plus two

446
00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:38,760
Speaker 1: fifty another ten am kickoff on Saturday morning. Watford's going

447
00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:41,560
Speaker 1: through some COVID stuff. Crystal Palace is coming off Southampton

448
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 1: in which they probably should have won. That's been a

449
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,119
Speaker 1: common theme for Palace for much of at least this

450
00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:48,159
Speaker 1: stretch of the season. This one is tough for me.

451
00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:49,840
Speaker 1: I don't think there's much value I would say that

452
00:19:49,880 --> 00:19:51,800
Speaker 1: there's a little, maybe a shred of value on Palace

453
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,120
Speaker 1: just because we don't know what's going on with Watford

454
00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:56,760
Speaker 1: at the moment. However, I'm going to stay away. Does

455
00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:59,640
Speaker 1: beg repeating we said it on the last one from Watford.

456
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,240
Speaker 1: Five games, twelve goals allowed and twenty one total goals

457
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 1: in those games, they've been a little roller coaster ride matches.

458
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:09,160
Speaker 1: But Anthony, you're seeing this one play out a little differently. Yeah.

459
00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 2: Look, anytime you're playing an under with the worst defense

460
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:12,840
Speaker 2: in the Premier League, you kind of have to hold

461
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:14,919
Speaker 2: your nose a little bit. But it's really about Palace

462
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 2: not being quite as good on the road and not

463
00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,439
Speaker 2: being able to take this game to Watford like they

464
00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:21,440
Speaker 2: would potentially if this game we're played at Selhurst Park.

465
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:25,040
Speaker 2: Palace have only created in eight road matches seven point

466
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 2: six expected goals. That's considerably worse than they've created at home.

467
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:32,320
Speaker 2: And they've had a pretty even schedule of home and

468
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,280
Speaker 2: away matches. They didn't even include to win they had

469
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:37,959
Speaker 2: at Manchester City when they created a little over one

470
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,639
Speaker 2: expected goal against them. They just haven't quite had the

471
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,640
Speaker 2: same kind of juice away from home, and I think

472
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:47,320
Speaker 2: it's going to be very difficult for them to dominate

473
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 2: the midfield in this match. Also on the other side,

474
00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:53,480
Speaker 2: Watford's attack has been pretty solid, but they will not

475
00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:57,159
Speaker 2: have Ishmie Lassar who is out. I know Emmanuel Dennis

476
00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 2: has played well, but they've also only created zero point

477
00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:02,480
Speaker 2: six and zero point seven expected goals their last two

478
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:04,679
Speaker 2: matches and only won the match before that, so they

479
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:08,040
Speaker 2: had some encouraging performances. But I think, you know they

480
00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:10,199
Speaker 2: brought in ron Yary, the attack got way better. They

481
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 2: were averaging almost a full expected goal more per match

482
00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 2: for about and now we're starting to see okay, you know,

483
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,520
Speaker 2: Water's finding its level again and this attack is not

484
00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 2: going to be one of the best in the league

485
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 2: like it was for about a month. So I think

486
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:23,760
Speaker 2: this is a good time here. You're getting a Watford

487
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,240
Speaker 2: attack trending downward in a Palace attack that isn't nearly

488
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,200
Speaker 2: as good on the road, So hold your nose place

489
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 2: nine or two and a half and hope the Palace

490
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,160
Speaker 2: doesn't give up two wonder goals again and that game

491
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:33,800
Speaker 2: flies over.

492
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:38,159
Speaker 1: The twelve thirty pm kickoff on Saturday features Leeds United,

493
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 1: who were off a squeaker seven nothing lost to Manchester City.

494
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 1: Just lost that one there plus two thirty five Arsenal

495
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,639
Speaker 1: plus one point fifteen traveling to ellen Road the draws

496
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,399
Speaker 1: plus two seventy. Oh, this Arsenal team is just the

497
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 1: worst to try to figure out. I'm staying away from

498
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:56,480
Speaker 1: this one. Don't want to try to figure out Arsenal

499
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 1: whether they're on the up tick or the down tick,

500
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:00,960
Speaker 1: because it's just driving me nuts right now. But it

501
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 1: is a funny situation on this podcast because Bija, you're

502
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,560
Speaker 1: an Arsenal fan, the Arsenal tragic. Anthony is a Spurs

503
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 1: fan here. But you guys are kind of swapping rules

504
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,679
Speaker 1: in terms of your where your wallets are going. So Anthony,

505
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,200
Speaker 1: let's start with you making the case for the Gunners,

506
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:16,119
Speaker 1: your beloved Gunners.

507
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, I really wish Arsenal hadn't won to

508
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 2: nil on Wednesday and Leads hadn't lost by seven on Tuesday,

509
00:22:22,119 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 2: because had we had some more normal results, maybe like

510
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 2: a home draw for Arsenal and you know too, nail

511
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 2: defeat for Leads, this would be a really good spot

512
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:35,959
Speaker 2: for Arsenal because I do think the stylistically with if

513
00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 2: they put odegard Smith brow in this team, they have

514
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:41,159
Speaker 2: a ton of passing. He can kind of passed through

515
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 2: the Leads press and that's a lot what we saw

516
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:44,440
Speaker 2: last year when these two teams played in the spring.

517
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,479
Speaker 2: In the fall, when they played this was before kind

518
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 2: of the youth movement of Arsenal, Leeds kind of pressed them,

519
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 2: caused a lot of issues, dominated The match ended nil nil,

520
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 2: but really Leads should have won it. When they played

521
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:58,960
Speaker 2: in the spring, Arteta had some more time, got his little,

522
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 2: you know, passing system set up and it really caused

523
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 2: a lot of issues for Leads and they scored five goals,

524
00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:08,119
Speaker 2: and so I think that can work. The problem is

525
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,639
Speaker 2: you're I mean, you're getting the worst possible situation here.

526
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 2: You're getting Arsenal off a huge home win where they

527
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 2: dominated west Ham and you're getting you're trying to fade

528
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:18,320
Speaker 2: Leads off of a game where yes, they were really terrible,

529
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:22,080
Speaker 2: conceided about three expected goals, but seven is a scary

530
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:23,920
Speaker 2: number to look at, and clearly there's going to be

531
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 2: an overreaction in the market and in the public perception

532
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:29,200
Speaker 2: of Leads based off of that. So it's very hard

533
00:23:29,680 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 2: to bet Arsenal here. I also think the addition of

534
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:34,879
Speaker 2: Martinelli into the lineup is making them way better. I mean,

535
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 2: he's just like another guy who can get good shot numbers.

536
00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 2: They don't really have that with Lacazette and all but

537
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:42,879
Speaker 2: kind of struggling all us out of the favor right now.

538
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,159
Speaker 2: Lacazette's numbers are in decline. They need a second guy

539
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:48,119
Speaker 2: to get shots. It's not really Sokka Smith Rose not

540
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:51,080
Speaker 2: really that guy either, but Martinelli looks like that guy,

541
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 2: and he scored today and I think he's been really impressive.

542
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,480
Speaker 2: He might be their best attacker right now, and so

543
00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 2: I think that's raised his arsenal ceiling. And in a

544
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 2: matchup like this leads a lot of questions surrounding Bielsa.

545
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 2: Now I lean towards the gunners, believe it or not,

546
00:24:06,920 --> 00:24:10,160
Speaker 2: but I'm going to probably begrudgingly end up staying away.

547
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 2: But I definitely lean that way. It's just a really

548
00:24:12,640 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 2: bad like I feel like I'm selling low and buying

549
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 2: high on the gunners and leads here.

550
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 1: BJ you do have the intestinal fortitude to back a

551
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 1: team coming off a seven nil drubbig, don't you?

552
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, well I didn't do with Growther last week. But no,

553
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:29,879
Speaker 3: this is really difficult like Anthony mentioned, you know, just

554
00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:32,399
Speaker 3: staring at seven nil and obviously watching that game of

555
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 3: Manchester City could have picked whatever score they wanted. Arsenal

556
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 3: obviously looked great against Southampton playing through their press, look

557
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 3: pretty good, agains obviously good against west Ham today. The

558
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,400
Speaker 3: biggest thing that in this match that I have question

559
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 3: marks with Arsenal, especially defensively if leads is able to

560
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 3: win the ball and have it. Arsenal's press has not

561
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 3: been great at all this season. We talked about it

562
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 3: at length. Their nineteenth and passed per defensive action and

563
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 3: seventeenth in pressure success rate. Leeds has typically really really

564
00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:00,920
Speaker 3: struggled against teams that will press them high and press

565
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 3: them at a high rate. So if we go back

566
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 3: and we look at their matches against Liverpool, Brighton, Southampton

567
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 3: and Manchester City essentially basically the best pressing teams in

568
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 3: the Premier League, they allowed over two expected goals in

569
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 3: every single one of those matches. So facing an Arsenal

570
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 3: team that's not really going to press them that much

571
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:16,400
Speaker 3: when they're you know, when Arsenal is sitting back defensively,

572
00:25:16,400 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 3: they usually earn a type of four to four to

573
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 3: two type shape, so they don't really get out and

574
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,920
Speaker 3: press that much, which means leads should should be able

575
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 3: to create some high quality chances. But then again it's

576
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,040
Speaker 3: very hard to just stare at seven nothing, especially after

577
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 3: how you know good Arsenal looked against west Ham, especially

578
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 3: in that first half to back leads, but all back

579
00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 3: leads plus half a goal. But I'm going to wait

580
00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,919
Speaker 3: on this number and hopefully the market overreacts to Arsenal's

581
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 3: win against west Ham and I get leads, you know,

582
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:45,199
Speaker 3: plus half a goal at you know, maybe minus one

583
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:47,399
Speaker 3: ten or even money. That's kind of where I'm looking at.

584
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 3: But so if I can get down on a play it,

585
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:50,120
Speaker 3: but other than that, I'm going to stay away.

586
00:25:50,280 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, Phillips isn't in the midfield. I have a hard

587
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,680
Speaker 2: time trusting leads. And the one thing that I will

588
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 2: note kind of goes against my pick Arsenal nineteenth and

589
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 2: expected difference away from home fifth at home, So they've

590
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 2: been much better at home at the Emirates and they've

591
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 2: been on the road. Definitely has to be considered because

592
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:10,639
Speaker 2: we just saw Arsenal's last road match when they went

593
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:14,120
Speaker 2: up to Everton, a pretty short handed Everton and looked

594
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:17,440
Speaker 2: absolutely flat. So it's not a good matchup for leads,

595
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 2: but it is a good spot for them, and I

596
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 2: think that makes it really interesting.

597
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, Arsenals allowed sixteen point two expected goals on the

598
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 3: road in eight road matches. Only a team that has

599
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:30,679
Speaker 3: more their opponent leads. So we'll see what happens and.

600
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 1: We will flip the page. Two. Sunday morning seven am

601
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 1: kickoff short handed Everton, as Anthony was just noting their

602
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 1: plus one ninety five home underdogs hosting Leicester City. We're

603
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,920
Speaker 1: also going to probably be shorthanded depending on how this

604
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 1: COVID situation settles with them there plus one fifty the

605
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 1: Druss sitting plus two thirty. This Everton team is just

606
00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,119
Speaker 1: not fun to watch to bet on to do anything

607
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 1: with right now, and hasn't been since September. They are

608
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: thin everywhere now. Seamus Coleman for Charleston probably out. Luca

609
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:03,400
Speaker 1: Dean is falling out of favor with manager Raphael Benita's

610
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:05,400
Speaker 1: for some reason, even though he's one of their best

611
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 1: three players on the roster, so that's always good. So

612
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 1: it's a really tough to back this Everdon team right now,

613
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:14,400
Speaker 1: and it's also tough to back what we know about

614
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:16,879
Speaker 1: them right now, which is not that much considering they

615
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 1: have a COVID outbreak. They tried to get their game

616
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 1: with Tottenham postponed, didn't work. I think the over is

617
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:26,879
Speaker 1: where I would look right now, because we know Everton

618
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 1: could create chances. They can score one goal. They can

619
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,719
Speaker 1: usually claw one out through you know, whether it's Tamari

620
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 1: Gray dribbling, someone's just throwing the ball at Solomon ron

621
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 1: Do and shins some way. They can obviously take it.

622
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:40,920
Speaker 1: For Charleston out of the equation is not ideal for

623
00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:43,440
Speaker 1: the over, and same with Andros Townsend. But I still

624
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 1: trust Everton to probably get on the board. I do

625
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 1: not trust them to keep Lesser off the board depending

626
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 1: on who is in the lineup. So depending how these

627
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 1: things shake out, I think the over two and a

628
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 1: half at minus one oh five is at least interesting,

629
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 1: But really I would just like Everdon's season to be

630
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 1: canceled more than anything, Anthony, how about you.

631
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 2: I mean, Leicester's playing to Tottenham on Thursday, so we

632
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 2: don't know the result of that. I can't wait to

633
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 2: watch it because I fired in the app over two

634
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:08,920
Speaker 2: and a half. I know this is the weekend preview

635
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,280
Speaker 2: but this will come out Thursday morning. Lester does not

636
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:13,439
Speaker 2: have any available healthy center backs for this match as

637
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 2: of now. Fafana has been out, Evans appears he's going

638
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,880
Speaker 2: to miss. He may be back for the weekend against Everton.

639
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:21,440
Speaker 2: Sun Chew same thing. He's going to miss tomorrow on

640
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 2: Thursday against Spurs, but he may be back for Everton Sunday.

641
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:28,640
Speaker 2: It's still unclear. Daniel Amarti is questionable, looks like he's

642
00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 2: going to start at center back. Vestiguard is out with

643
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 2: an illness. Aosi Perez also out, Ianacho is out. There's

644
00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 2: so many players in this Lester defense that are out

645
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 2: and they have been awful, awful defending set pieces all year,

646
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 2: worse than the league, conceding tons of goals off of

647
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 2: him until they lost to Villa recently, until they lost

648
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 2: to Brighton. So this is a team who isn't defending

649
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 2: set pieces. The goalkeeper play has been pretty poor from Schmichael,

650
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 2: huge red flags defensively, so you know the over is

651
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 2: the only look here for me as well. Like you mentioned,

652
00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 2: Everton's defense very inconsistent depending on the COVID outbreak for Leicester,

653
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 2: who's going to be out in attack? We don't know necessarily,

654
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 2: but I think this one's gonna end up being a

655
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 2: pass until at least we see what the defender situation

656
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 2: is for Leicester, because until we know, you know, okay,

657
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 2: this guy's gonna play, and this guy's gonna play, and

658
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 2: they have a decent enough pairing, they're gonna be starting

659
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 2: academy guys or you know, putting fullbacks in center back.

660
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 2: It could get our line.

661
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 1: At nine am kickoff on Sunday features Wolves hosting Chelsea.

662
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 1: Wolverhampton's plus six hundred on the money line, Chelsea traveling

663
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 1: through the Black Country at minus two hundred at the

664
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 1: draw is plus three twenty. We've been talking about this

665
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 1: Chelsea team a lot about how your third best team

666
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 1: in the Premier League. I think by pretty far stretched.

667
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 1: The gap between them and the West Hams Arsenals and

668
00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 1: Tottenhams of the world Manchester United is pretty wide. However,

669
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 1: I do think that they are beatable and we will

670
00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:00,360
Speaker 1: start seeing teams poll results on them. Whether it's a whatever,

671
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,480
Speaker 1: I think this one could set up that way because

672
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 1: we've seen Wolves hang with some good teams, whether a

673
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:07,959
Speaker 1: lot of times it is just set through some heroic

674
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 1: defending in front of their own net. But this is

675
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 1: a team that has a talent to score when they try.

676
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 1: We saw it against Brighton today they did win one nil.

677
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 1: So I do think that the number, especially at home

678
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 1: is good enough at six to one for a Wolves.

679
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 1: Like a little nibble on Wolves here. I like going

680
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 1: against this Chelsea team when they're big price, so I'm

681
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 1: gonna keep doing it. BJ anything for you here.

682
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm kind of leaning towards Wolves plus one, but

683
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 3: I need a better number. You know, Chelsea's obviously getting healthier,

684
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 3: and goal of Conte came back to training, Chiloba came

685
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 3: back to training. The really only the guys are gonna

686
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:38,360
Speaker 3: be without on Thursday, I believe is just going to

687
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 3: be Ben Chilwell and Kobaciic. So with Chelsea finally getting healthy,

688
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 3: you know, their defensive regression as obviously came in Waves,

689
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 3: I think they'll start to get a little bit better

690
00:30:47,160 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 3: now that everybody is healthy. The big thing in this

691
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 3: one though, is kind of just from a price standpoint,

692
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 3: So Wolves close. It's seven to one at home against Liverpool.

693
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 3: You know, a few weeks ago, Chelsea is not on

694
00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 3: the same level as Liverpool right now and they're getting

695
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 3: dang usually close to that same price. So if I

696
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 3: can get Wolves plus one at even money, that's just purely,

697
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 3: you know, I from a numbers play. That's just there's

698
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 3: gonna be some value on that, given how good Wolves

699
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 3: has been defensively this season. Obviously they gave over you know,

700
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 3: five and a half combined expected goals to man City

701
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,760
Speaker 3: and Liverpool and Chelsea. You know, probably could create that

702
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 3: as well. But you know, the Wolves attacking attack showed

703
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 3: a little bit more life today one point one expected goals,

704
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:26,479
Speaker 3: which is a lot better than what they have been doing.

705
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 3: Rale Hamenez will be back for suspension, so there are

706
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 3: some things that Wolves can do, especially getting forward with

707
00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 3: Triore to get behind the defense maybe you know, get

708
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 3: a goal on the board. But other than that, if

709
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 3: I can't get Wolves plus one and even money or better,

710
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:38,440
Speaker 3: it's passed for me.

711
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 1: Anthony, Are you looking the same way here or do

712
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 1: you see anything in this one that interests you?

713
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 2: Yeah? You know that Everton fade Chelsea spot is looking

714
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 2: worse and worse by the day. That game is also

715
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 2: one Thursday, but Everton's injury crisis is really making that

716
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 2: a difficult spot. But I think someday against Chelsea at

717
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 2: home is a pretty decent spot for Wolves who have

718
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 2: performed well against the bigger They give up a ton

719
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,320
Speaker 2: of expect goals to Manchester City, but a lot of

720
00:32:03,360 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 2: that came after the red card to him and as

721
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 2: right before halftime, and that was a road trip to City,

722
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 2: which is a much tougher fixture at the moment than

723
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 2: the way Chelsea's been playing. I understand it, and Golocante

724
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 2: is likely going to be back on Sunday. At being said,

725
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 2: I wonder heading into the festive fixtures, how much is

726
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 2: Tukl going to be managing his minutes. He may not

727
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 2: go to the full ninety and Chelsea just hasn't been

728
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 2: dominant enough to warrant them being full goal favorites against

729
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 2: one of the better defenses in the league. And so

730
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 2: I took some Wolves plus one may look to play

731
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 2: some Wolves team total as well, still have a ton

732
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 2: of regression coming. They hit the post and the crossbarder

733
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 2: day really could have been a couple of goals. They

734
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 2: had another few counter attacks three on ones that they

735
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 2: just completely fluffed. And Domitor is still looking for that

736
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 2: first goal or assisted the season, but he's been around

737
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 2: so many good chances that eventually he's going to start

738
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 2: producing more, and it looks like he may start as

739
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 2: well because of the injury to Hawangi Chen. He went

740
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 2: off injured today, So it looks like Wolves are decent

741
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 2: team who might get on the board here. But I

742
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 2: really just think that this is going to be a

743
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 2: tight game. I'm number. I have Chelsea plus point eight

744
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 2: and my number point eight one, and so I think

745
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 2: almost even money. It's minus one oh five right now.

746
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 2: I already took some Wolves plus one.

747
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 1: And how about this one? Newcastle United hosting Manchester City.

748
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 1: Newcastle is twelve to one on the money line, City

749
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 1: coming back at minus four seventy five, the draws plus

750
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:25,520
Speaker 1: six fifty. But nine fifteen am kickoff on Sunday morning,

751
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 1: And like I said, we were recording this before the

752
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 1: Newcastle Liverpool match, but I'm going to sum that one

753
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 1: up for you anyways. Wow, Newcastle, they just got played

754
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 1: off the park six and the goals for Liverpool. That

755
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:37,479
Speaker 1: was great And I think we could see a similar

756
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 1: situation here for a city who just put up a

757
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 1: touchdown and kicked the extra point against Leeds. God, I mean,

758
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:46,840
Speaker 1: how high I guess it's the right question here is

759
00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:49,280
Speaker 1: how high does this number have to get for either

760
00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 1: one of you to be interested in Newcastle United BJ.

761
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 1: We can start with you three and a half.

762
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 3: This is probably number. I'd say just go re listen

763
00:33:57,360 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 3: to our Newcastle Liverpool analysis last pot you know you'll

764
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 3: be good. I just man, the biggest thing that I

765
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 3: kind of noticed obviously on Tuesday, with City putting up

766
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 3: so many goals like they're obviously with this close of

767
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:12,840
Speaker 3: a title race, would expect with you know, gold differential

768
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 3: actually mattering. They're still two behind Liverpool and gold differentials.

769
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 3: So if City has a chance to you know, to

770
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 3: run up the score, they absolutely will. So if you

771
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:25,680
Speaker 3: want to chase like a City like minus five or

772
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,800
Speaker 3: five and a half or something to get a decent price,

773
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:30,839
Speaker 3: or maybe just chase like a team total like over

774
00:34:30,920 --> 00:34:32,839
Speaker 3: four and a half or something like that, that might

775
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 3: be the play. I don't really think there's a number

776
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:38,400
Speaker 3: high enough for me to actually play Newcastle U in

777
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 3: this match. And you know, obviously we don't know what's

778
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 3: going to happen against Liverpool, but I mean it's probably

779
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 3: gonna be really bad, so probably just to stay away

780
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:47,879
Speaker 3: from me, unless I want to chase some of those

781
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:49,720
Speaker 3: City you know, high spreads or totals.

782
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,400
Speaker 1: I can't remember what Champions League game it was this

783
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 1: season that I bet City over for Brush. Yeah, and

784
00:34:58,640 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 1: that was fun. I mean, I mean that's what it is,

785
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 1: right Like, in a match like this, if you do

786
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:04,719
Speaker 1: want to watch it and have like skin in the game,

787
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 1: I think that's the best way to do it is

788
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 1: just bet something like I mean, what's more fun than

789
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,720
Speaker 1: betting on Manchester City to try to score five goals

790
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 1: against New Kestle United relegated? Yeah, Anthony, you might actually

791
00:35:17,520 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 1: do it.

792
00:35:18,160 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 2: I guess you saw my little note. There go Liverpool tomorrow.

793
00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 2: Hopefully they run off the score we can get a

794
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 2: two and a half. If we do, I will be

795
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 2: firing on the Magpies at home where I think there's

796
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,280
Speaker 2: a good feeling about it about the Eddie Howse situation,

797
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 2: and they seem to have a lot of crowd support.

798
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 2: They've given good efforts when they've played at home. And look,

799
00:35:35,239 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 2: I mean I don't like the matchup, but I'd have

800
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 2: to play the number at two and a half. So

801
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 2: that's my bypoint two and a half minus one fifteenish

802
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 2: and I'm in on the Magpies, but right now at two,

803
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:47,439
Speaker 2: very very happy to sit it out. They're not gonna

804
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 2: win my seven every game. I mean, City's dominant and

805
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:52,760
Speaker 2: they created three expected goals. They also took every chance

806
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:57,319
Speaker 2: and scored everything it seemed, and I don't think they'll

807
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 2: do that every match, so you kind of have to

808
00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 2: just bite the ball and then swallow the two and

809
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 2: a half you get to it.

810
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:04,439
Speaker 1: It would have been fun knowing that it was City

811
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: and Liverpool back to back. If a book out there

812
00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 1: posted like a Newcastle versus Liverpool and City spread and

813
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:13,439
Speaker 1: you can they keep it to six and a half

814
00:36:13,560 --> 00:36:15,320
Speaker 1: or something, that would.

815
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 2: I would take to sing? I think I would. I

816
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:18,240
Speaker 2: think I would be hesitant to take the six.

817
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 1: And a half.

818
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, because I think one of them they

819
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 2: will get. They will get one of the score on them,

820
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 2: and I think they're more likely to get rolled at

821
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:28,439
Speaker 2: at Anfield than they are at home against man City

822
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:31,960
Speaker 2: and obviously that's priced in, but Anfield, especially after City

823
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:33,760
Speaker 2: put up seven, I think there's more of an incentive

824
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 2: for Liverpool to run off the score and hopefully Liverpool

825
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:37,400
Speaker 2: runs up the score so much that we get a

826
00:36:37,440 --> 00:36:40,880
Speaker 2: better Price on Tottenham on Sunday, which I did not

827
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:43,400
Speaker 2: mention originally in the handicap when we spoke spoke about it,

828
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 2: but also something to watch. If Liverpool gets like two

829
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 2: to one or minus two hundred, excuse me, then I'll

830
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:51,760
Speaker 2: be probably firing on my my Spurs on Sunday.

831
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:55,879
Speaker 1: That note, we moved to Germany and the Bundesliga, home

832
00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 1: of the favorite team of this podcast. It's growth group

833
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 1: groyth Firth first right their first. I've been slowly getting

834
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 1: learning from a German listener how to pronounce it, and

835
00:37:05,960 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 1: I've already forgotten, so I apologize for that, but I'll

836
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 1: start here with my favorite bet in Germany this week

837
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 1: is Dortmunt laying one goal plus one oh five against

838
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 1: hurt the Berlin. When laying the juice or laying the

839
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:19,720
Speaker 1: goal with Dortmund, I like to do it against teams

840
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:24,800
Speaker 1: that's offense won't be able to punish Dortmund's pedestrian defense.

841
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 1: Hurt the Berlin is one of them, so I have

842
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:30,560
Speaker 1: no qualms laying the minus one with the black and

843
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 1: yellow here, BJ what do you have?

844
00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:35,840
Speaker 3: I like minds plus half a goal at minus one

845
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,279
Speaker 3: forty Frankfurt is really overvalued in the spot at home.

846
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 3: They may have just beaten Glodbach on Wednesday on the road,

847
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 3: but the expectables that was pretty much even and one

848
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 3: of their starting defenders, tutah I, got a red card.

849
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 3: Overall for the season, Frankfurt has really been struggling to

850
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:54,239
Speaker 3: create high quality chances, even if they were able able

851
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:57,280
Speaker 3: to beat Glodtalk's defense, which has just been Swiss cheese

852
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 3: so far in the last month or so so they're

853
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 3: only averaging one point two to seven non penalty expected

854
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:05,239
Speaker 3: goals per match, which is tenth in the Bundesliga, and

855
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 3: they're going against one of the best defensive teams in Germany.

856
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:11,479
Speaker 3: Mines a second in non penalty expect goals allowed, third

857
00:38:11,520 --> 00:38:14,360
Speaker 3: and shots blowed per ninety and first in big scoring

858
00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 3: chances allowed, conceding only nine in sixteen matches. The Frankfurt

859
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 3: defense is really susceptible to giving up big scoring chances.

860
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 3: They've they're fifteenth in the Bundesliga and that metric they're

861
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,799
Speaker 3: allowing one point sixty five non penalty expected goals per match.

862
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 3: Mines has created the fifth most big scoring chances. So

863
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:33,640
Speaker 3: I think that this price is way way too high

864
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:37,439
Speaker 3: on Frankfurt and it's a really good cell high spot

865
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 3: for them. I have Mines projected as a slight favorite,

866
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:42,239
Speaker 3: so I love the value at plus half a goal

867
00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 3: at minus one forty.

868
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:44,920
Speaker 1: Anthony, what about you? Hey?

869
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 2: You know BJ just taunting me about Gladbach Now, just unbelievable,

870
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 2: how bad and it's amazing how much underperforming at both

871
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 2: ends of the pitch at this point, they're bad. I

872
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:56,839
Speaker 2: can't wait till they fire. I can't wait till they

873
00:38:56,880 --> 00:38:59,479
Speaker 2: fire Hooter and then we can get the new manager Bounce,

874
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:01,640
Speaker 2: and then I bet them every week because they're the

875
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 2: fifth or sixth best team by expected goals, they're sitting

876
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 2: in thirteenth. Just unbelievable. That being said, my favorite pick

877
00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 2: in the Bundesliga. You don't have to wait till the

878
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 2: weekend because it's Friday afternoon. Byron is hosting Wolfsburg. Both

879
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:18,680
Speaker 2: teams to score, yes, minus one twenty five. To find

880
00:39:18,719 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 2: that at DraftKings just way too low. My number is

881
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 2: minus one fifty one, and so I have a ton

882
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:26,720
Speaker 2: of value on both teams to score here. I understand

883
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:29,600
Speaker 2: that Byron's defense has improved this year, but Wolfsburg has

884
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:33,239
Speaker 2: some attacking regression coming one two. No, Joshua Kimmick has

885
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 2: made this midfield and Byron way more open. Starting some

886
00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:39,240
Speaker 2: backups in the midfield, we've seen a bunch of Taliso

887
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 2: Goretzka has been in and out of the lineup. Mucila

888
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 2: was starting at central midfielder and I love Musiala, but

889
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:48,360
Speaker 2: he's not a central midfielder. They also started Hernandez and

890
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:50,839
Speaker 2: Sula because mccono did not play. In the last match

891
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 2: against Stuttgart. They dominated Stutgart, but they were a little

892
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 2: lucky not to concede. Stutgart got in behind a few times.

893
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 2: So I think Wolfsburg be able to get on the

894
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:01,800
Speaker 2: board here Byron will Or as they always do, and

895
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:03,680
Speaker 2: I think at minus one twenty five, that's just way

896
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 2: too cheap. So I grabbed that right away and that's

897
00:40:06,760 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 2: where I'm going. So they on't even have to wait

898
00:40:08,000 --> 00:40:10,360
Speaker 2: for the weekend. We're heading into the break for my

899
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 2: favorite league, Bundesliga, and so we will not have any

900
00:40:12,960 --> 00:40:16,320
Speaker 2: Bundesliga until January. So a nice little send off with

901
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:18,240
Speaker 2: some both teams to score Syria.

902
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:20,799
Speaker 1: I now, bj let's start with you in Italy. What's

903
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 1: your favorite bed there? Yeah?

904
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:24,720
Speaker 3: I love Tourno plus one twenty five against Verona. Torino

905
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:27,399
Speaker 3: is one of the biggest underperforming teams in Europe. They're

906
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 3: starting to get some of that positive aggression back. They

907
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 3: got a deserving two to one win against Bolognia this

908
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 3: past weekend. They're one of the best defensive teams in Syria,

909
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:37,040
Speaker 3: allowing only point eight two non penaltygue spectacles for match,

910
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 3: which is the third best mark in the league. They're

911
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 3: also third in shots allowed per ninety minutes and first

912
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 3: in preventing cross into their own penalty area. But the

913
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:47,319
Speaker 3: biggest thing for this matchup is Torino is the best

914
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 3: pressing team in Italy, their first and pass for defensive

915
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 3: action and ball recoveries, while Verona they're seventeenth in pressure

916
00:40:54,239 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 3: success rate allowed and dead last in ball recoveries allowed.

917
00:40:57,760 --> 00:40:59,239
Speaker 3: So Torino should be able to win the ball in

918
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:01,399
Speaker 3: the middle of the pitch and create some chances going

919
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:06,800
Speaker 3: forward on the counter. Verona is overperforming drastically offensively, mainly

920
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:11,840
Speaker 3: due to Giovanni Simione Diego Simione's son, but they've scored

921
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 3: thirty three goals off of twenty three point three expected goals,

922
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:17,880
Speaker 3: so going against one of the best defensive teams in Syria.

923
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:20,480
Speaker 3: Some of that negative aggression is likely going to come

924
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 3: this weekend. Torino offensively has been pretty good seventh and

925
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:26,560
Speaker 3: non penalty expected goals, and they have created the third

926
00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 3: most big scoring chances, while Verona as fourteenth and big

927
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 3: scoring chances allowed. I have Torino projected at minus one fourteen,

928
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 3: so I love the value on them at plus one

929
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 3: twenty five. At home we get all three points.

930
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:38,400
Speaker 1: Anthony, What do you have for us in Syria this weekend?

931
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:41,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, the game of the weekend in Italy Milan against

932
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:45,279
Speaker 2: Napoli on Sunday. Milan and Napoli have two of the

933
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 2: four best attacks based on goals, but when you look

934
00:41:48,120 --> 00:41:51,320
Speaker 2: at their goals versus their expected goals, there's clear regression

935
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:55,000
Speaker 2: coming for both attacks. Victor Osaman is out. He's going

936
00:41:55,040 --> 00:41:56,960
Speaker 2: to be out for a while. The Napoli attack has

937
00:41:57,040 --> 00:41:59,279
Speaker 2: not been nearly as good at creating chances without him.

938
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 2: They've scored thirty four goals from twenty seven expected this year,

939
00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:04,960
Speaker 2: so running a good twenty percent over their numbers. Same

940
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:07,640
Speaker 2: thing with Milan thirty six goals from twenty eight expected.

941
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 2: Milan also will not have Raphae layout until January, so

942
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:13,719
Speaker 2: he's out He's an underrated part of this Milan attack.

943
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 2: It looks like Dru's gonna miss as well Milan. The

944
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:21,399
Speaker 2: last five matches Soswolo one expected goal, Ghenawa one expected goal,

945
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:25,439
Speaker 2: Salarnitana one of the worst teams in Italy two point

946
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:28,759
Speaker 2: nine expected goals. Good performance there and then against Liverpool's

947
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:32,320
Speaker 2: backups at home point nine and against Utanesi they stole

948
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 2: that result. In the last week one expected goal as well.

949
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:37,759
Speaker 2: We're seeing that they're just not putting up the same

950
00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 2: number as they were early in the season. One they're

951
00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 2: dealing with some injuries, but two guys were playing above

952
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:45,440
Speaker 2: their talent levels and then starting to come back down

953
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:47,840
Speaker 2: to earth, and the finishing will follow along with that,

954
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 2: and so I think it's gonna be a tight game.

955
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:52,880
Speaker 2: I understand that Napoli has some defenders out, but they

956
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:55,400
Speaker 2: also still have the best defense in Italy by expected

957
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 2: goals allowed, and so I think it's a good spot

958
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:00,439
Speaker 2: here with Napoli, who is conceded a lot of goals

959
00:43:00,480 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 2: from not a ton of chances lately. To sure up

960
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 2: the defense a little bit and make this a low

961
00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 2: scoring game has one one kind of vibe to it,

962
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 2: and so I like under two and a half at

963
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:10,680
Speaker 2: even money.

964
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:14,799
Speaker 1: Now onto La Liga. I'll start here. Sevia's plus one

965
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 1: eighty against Atletico Madrid at home is a Saturday three

966
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 1: pm kickoff. I like Sevilla as much as I was

967
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:23,360
Speaker 1: tempted by the draw in this matchup. I think that

968
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 1: Sevia deserves to be a slight slightly bigger home favorite

969
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:30,440
Speaker 1: against at LETTI that the numbers are relatively close or

970
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:33,280
Speaker 1: they're very close throughout the season in terms of defense,

971
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:37,359
Speaker 1: underlying metrics, everything that I look for in a team

972
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:39,680
Speaker 1: at this kind of number, and the Seville team is

973
00:43:39,760 --> 00:43:41,960
Speaker 1: just they tug at my heart strings. I usually when

974
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:43,520
Speaker 1: I bet them, they lose, but I'm going to go

975
00:43:43,600 --> 00:43:45,480
Speaker 1: back to them and back them at home. Like I

976
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,520
Speaker 1: said against an Atletico team that their best way of

977
00:43:48,560 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 1: winning usually is by getting a little bit lucky, little

978
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:55,960
Speaker 1: shit housery, and that that formula does work, especially under Simoni.

979
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 1: We've seen it for a long time here. So give

980
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:01,800
Speaker 1: me Sevilla plus one eighty BJ. Do you have anything

981
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:02,799
Speaker 1: in La Lega for us?

982
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:04,920
Speaker 3: Yeah? I like, you know, kind of one of our

983
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 3: teams of the podcast now, Athletic Bill Boo plus one

984
00:44:07,800 --> 00:44:11,600
Speaker 3: oh five against Real Bettis perfect by low spot on

985
00:44:11,680 --> 00:44:14,879
Speaker 3: Athletic Billboo and sell high spot on Real Bettas Bill

986
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 3: Bao has been incredibly unlucky as of late, We've been

987
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:21,320
Speaker 3: betting them and they've been basically outclassing their opponents but

988
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:24,240
Speaker 3: not winning. They are winless in their last eight matches,

989
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:27,040
Speaker 3: but they have won the expected goals that combined eleven

990
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:29,560
Speaker 3: point two to seven point eight, so they are way

991
00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:31,880
Speaker 3: overdue for a win, especially at home. They play a

992
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 3: very similar style to that of Athletic Co Madrid, playing

993
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:36,000
Speaker 3: out a four to four to two, staying very organized,

994
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:38,799
Speaker 3: compact defensively in its work to this season because they're

995
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:40,640
Speaker 3: one of the best defensive teams in Spain, allowing only

996
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:43,759
Speaker 3: point seventy nine non penalty expected goals for match and

997
00:44:43,800 --> 00:44:45,520
Speaker 3: the biggest thing in this one with a four to

998
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:47,360
Speaker 3: four to two, Basically what they're trying to do is

999
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:49,200
Speaker 3: they're obviously trying to clog up the middle of the pitch,

1000
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:51,439
Speaker 3: force them opponents to you know, play the ballut wide

1001
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:54,680
Speaker 3: and beat them with crosses. Well, Real Bettis has only

1002
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 3: has the sorry they're seventeenth and crosses completed into the

1003
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:01,560
Speaker 3: eighteen yard box this season so far, so most of

1004
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:03,440
Speaker 3: what they're attacking is going right through the middle of

1005
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 3: the pitch, so I don't think they're able to create

1006
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:07,280
Speaker 3: the chances like they normally have against some other opponents.

1007
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:10,440
Speaker 3: Their defense, Real Betis' defense has been very fortunate. They're

1008
00:45:10,480 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 3: due for some negative aggression. They've allowed only sixteen goals

1009
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 3: off of twenty one expected goals, and they also have

1010
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 3: allowed twenty three big scoring chances, which is the third

1011
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 3: most in La Lego, while Athletic Bobo has created the

1012
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 3: fourth most big scoring chances. So really really good spot

1013
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:26,800
Speaker 3: for one of our favorite teams, Athletic Bill Boo to

1014
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:28,839
Speaker 3: get a result. Our d all three points here at home.

1015
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:30,840
Speaker 3: I have them projected at minus one oh seven, so

1016
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 3: you can find plus one oh five or better. I

1017
00:45:33,040 --> 00:45:33,880
Speaker 3: think there's some value on that.

1018
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:38,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, two goals from seven expected in their last six matches.

1019
00:45:38,200 --> 00:45:41,440
Speaker 2: It's so pretty remarkable they cannot score. They are killing me.

1020
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:43,840
Speaker 2: But I will probably be joining VJ on that. It

1021
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:46,400
Speaker 2: might even do an alt spread little minus one and

1022
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:48,759
Speaker 2: a half on that match too, because I agree I

1023
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:49,240
Speaker 2: like Bobao.

1024
00:45:49,719 --> 00:45:53,240
Speaker 1: It's funny you said that, Anthony. So when we prepared

1025
00:45:53,239 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 1: for this podcast, we have a Google doctor Share it

1026
00:45:55,520 --> 00:45:58,080
Speaker 1: BJ was first. I was looking to back Bill Boo.

1027
00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:00,239
Speaker 1: They were plus one ten at the time too, so

1028
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:03,120
Speaker 1: I like that number down to then to that point.

1029
00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:05,879
Speaker 1: So it looks like a grouper on the team from

1030
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:08,719
Speaker 1: the Basque country. So that's nice. Now let's move on

1031
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 1: to our favorite underdog. And this is a part of

1032
00:46:11,520 --> 00:46:13,839
Speaker 1: the program where I will always warn you to tread

1033
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:17,960
Speaker 1: lightley here as these teams are underdogs and for a reason,

1034
00:46:18,200 --> 00:46:20,400
Speaker 1: I'm gonna kick it off. There are some injury concerns,

1035
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 1: there's some COVID concerns on the other side of the matchup.

1036
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:25,280
Speaker 1: But I like Brighton at five to one over Manchester United.

1037
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:27,640
Speaker 1: They are good enough to hang with these type of

1038
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:29,799
Speaker 1: teams and their defense should be good enough to keep

1039
00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 1: them in the game. And as long as they can

1040
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:36,040
Speaker 1: drag United deep into the contest on Saturday morning, maybe

1041
00:46:36,080 --> 00:46:37,880
Speaker 1: they can nick a win a one nil, maybe two

1042
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:39,920
Speaker 1: to one win over the Red Devils, who I think

1043
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 1: are just a little bit inflated because of the new

1044
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 1: manager bounce under Ralph Ragnick. So give me the Seagulls

1045
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:48,040
Speaker 1: man five to one. And if that game, by the way,

1046
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 1: gets postponed for COVID, I would say Burnley was very

1047
00:46:50,840 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 1: I was having a really tough time de signing between

1048
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:54,880
Speaker 1: Brighton and Burnley, so that would just be, you know,

1049
00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:58,440
Speaker 1: a little sneaky backup. Pick Anthony, your favorite underdog.

1050
00:47:00,440 --> 00:47:03,719
Speaker 2: You knew I couldn't stay away for long. Greigter Firth

1051
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:08,600
Speaker 2: is two to one at home against Osburg Luckbox. Fraudsburg

1052
00:47:09,320 --> 00:47:13,480
Speaker 2: stole a result today against Leipzig, conceded over three expected goals,

1053
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:17,960
Speaker 2: stole the result on a penalty. This defense is horrible.

1054
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:21,040
Speaker 2: I actually think Firth is a even team with them

1055
00:47:21,040 --> 00:47:23,959
Speaker 2: when you look at the expected goals. My projections coming

1056
00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 2: into the season was higher on Furt than I was

1057
00:47:26,600 --> 00:47:29,759
Speaker 2: to Osburg. Expected goal difference minus point seven to seven

1058
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:33,759
Speaker 2: per ninety four Osburg minus point nine to three four.

1059
00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:37,879
Speaker 2: Furt actually played pretty well against Doorman today. They lost

1060
00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 2: three now, but the expected goals battle suggested it probably

1061
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:43,239
Speaker 2: should have been about two to maybe a half a

1062
00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:45,879
Speaker 2: goal for Furt. So, you know, playing on the road

1063
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 2: against the second best team in the league and only

1064
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:49,920
Speaker 2: losing by a goal in half actually a pretty encouraging

1065
00:47:50,000 --> 00:47:52,560
Speaker 2: result given they were plus two and then three quarters

1066
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:55,279
Speaker 2: on the spread. It was an unfortunate beat if you

1067
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:57,520
Speaker 2: had the plus two point seven to five. I cashed

1068
00:47:57,560 --> 00:47:59,360
Speaker 2: my first bet of the season on them on the

1069
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 2: under four, so I'm feeling really good and I think

1070
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:04,320
Speaker 2: at home at plus two hundred they should not be

1071
00:48:04,680 --> 00:48:07,759
Speaker 2: that big of an underdog against Ausburg, who really, quite

1072
00:48:07,760 --> 00:48:10,440
Speaker 2: frankly stinks, and I think fert is showing some fight.

1073
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 2: So at two to one, greight there for. I'm going

1074
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:14,960
Speaker 2: to put the ad the bet in the app after

1075
00:48:15,000 --> 00:48:17,640
Speaker 2: we finished recording this, and then I may shed a

1076
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 2: tear just for how far we've come on forth.

1077
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:25,920
Speaker 1: BJ close out this three leg underdog parlay for us.

1078
00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:26,640
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1079
00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:30,120
Speaker 3: So unfortunately there's no league on this weekend, so I

1080
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:32,520
Speaker 3: can't face DoD Durreims. So I'll go next on my

1081
00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:36,080
Speaker 3: list and fade Fiorentina. They're taking on so A Swallows.

1082
00:48:36,120 --> 00:48:40,879
Speaker 3: It's a swallow plus three ten Fiorentina. I mean, I've

1083
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 3: said it so many times. They're very highly OVERHD offense.

1084
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:46,040
Speaker 3: They've scored thirty one goals off of twenty five point

1085
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:49,040
Speaker 3: seven expected goals. That's mainly due because they have Siria

1086
00:48:49,120 --> 00:48:52,280
Speaker 3: Oz's the leading goal scorer. Du Soun Lahovik, future Tottenham flop.

1087
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:56,239
Speaker 3: The Serbing has scored fifteen goals off of nine point

1088
00:48:56,280 --> 00:48:59,520
Speaker 3: two expected goals. He's a good young striker, but he's

1089
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 3: not that. Additionally, a lot of Fiorentina's success this season

1090
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:06,800
Speaker 3: has come just obliterating the bottom of the table. Against

1091
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:10,480
Speaker 3: the bottom seven teams in Syria A, they have thirteen

1092
00:49:10,560 --> 00:49:13,839
Speaker 3: point seven expected goals four and have only allowed four

1093
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:17,400
Speaker 3: point five expectacles. Against the top thirteen teams in Italy

1094
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:20,959
Speaker 3: only twelve point seven expectacles and have allowed sixteen point

1095
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:23,960
Speaker 3: two in ten matches. So they're taking on a SWI

1096
00:49:24,040 --> 00:49:27,520
Speaker 3: solo side that's really improving. They're unbeaten in their last five.

1097
00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:30,800
Speaker 3: They're currently sitting eleventh place, but they got a convincing

1098
00:49:30,840 --> 00:49:34,400
Speaker 3: two one win against Lazio this past weekend. The offense

1099
00:49:34,520 --> 00:49:38,640
Speaker 3: has created the sixth most big scoring chances in the league,

1100
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:41,239
Speaker 3: which is huge because that's how you beat this Fiorentina

1101
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:43,600
Speaker 3: back line that doesn't allow a lot of shots. They're

1102
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:46,040
Speaker 3: second in Syria I and shots allowed per ninety, but

1103
00:49:46,440 --> 00:49:49,279
Speaker 3: they are eleventh in big scoring chances allowed. And if

1104
00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:52,520
Speaker 3: we purely just look at non penalty expected gold official

1105
00:49:52,560 --> 00:49:56,200
Speaker 3: because Fiorentina has been incredibly lucky with penalties. They've had

1106
00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:59,279
Speaker 3: six so far this season. Fior Chance sitting at plus

1107
00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 3: three point five, so Swallow is sitting at one point eight.

1108
00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 3: So these two teams, even though they're six spots between

1109
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:06,399
Speaker 3: in the in the table, they're really not that far off.

1110
00:50:06,880 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 3: I only have Fioran tin and projected at plus one

1111
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:11,319
Speaker 3: forty one. If you look at five thirty eight, they

1112
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 3: only have Fiorentina at forty five percent. Info goal actually

1113
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:18,560
Speaker 3: has to Swallow as a slight favorite. So I'm gonna

1114
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:22,160
Speaker 3: fade Florentina again and fade Veehovic again. Give me some

1115
00:50:22,239 --> 00:50:24,120
Speaker 3: Swallow plus three ten.

1116
00:50:24,239 --> 00:50:26,279
Speaker 1: And if you wrap all three of these teams that's

1117
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:30,319
Speaker 1: brighton great their firt and Saswollow together you're looking at

1118
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:33,040
Speaker 1: a seventy three to one parlay on the money line.

1119
00:50:33,120 --> 00:50:35,920
Speaker 1: So some good holiday cash for you if all three

1120
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:38,759
Speaker 1: of those teams come through. Now we will wrap this

1121
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:41,239
Speaker 1: show up with our favorite bets in the English Premier

1122
00:50:41,360 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 1: League this coming weekend. I'll start with Bees, the Brentford

1123
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:50,319
Speaker 1: Bees plus two forty. They're taking on Southampton Saturday morning,

1124
00:50:50,400 --> 00:50:53,560
Speaker 1: ten am. Like I said, I like to fade Southampton

1125
00:50:53,640 --> 00:50:56,320
Speaker 1: against teams with good defenses, because look this, the strength

1126
00:50:56,360 --> 00:50:59,600
Speaker 1: of this Southampton team is its offense, a team that

1127
00:50:59,680 --> 00:51:02,000
Speaker 1: can cree a lot of chances going forward, but also

1128
00:51:02,080 --> 00:51:04,239
Speaker 1: is very leaky in their own ends. So I trust

1129
00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:07,840
Speaker 1: Brentford's defense to be able to withstand Southampton's offense, and

1130
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:12,520
Speaker 1: I don't trust Southampton's defense to keep Brentford off the board.

1131
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:14,640
Speaker 1: And that's what you're looking for at a number like this.

1132
00:51:14,719 --> 00:51:16,440
Speaker 1: It's plus two forty on the money line, and I

1133
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:18,840
Speaker 1: like that number a lot, So give me Brentford the

1134
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:23,560
Speaker 1: Bees buzz buzz against Southampton. Anthony, what is your favorite

1135
00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:24,920
Speaker 1: bet in the EPL this weekend?

1136
00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:27,919
Speaker 2: Yeah? Back in the bottom of the table Norwich plus

1137
00:51:28,040 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 2: one and a half against west Ham United. West Ham's

1138
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:33,479
Speaker 2: seen a significant regression in the way that they're playing.

1139
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 2: They're not quite dominating the teams that they were early

1140
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:38,160
Speaker 2: in the season. You can tell based on their possession numbers,

1141
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:40,560
Speaker 2: based on their passes in the penalty area, based on

1142
00:51:40,600 --> 00:51:42,360
Speaker 2: their carries into the penalty area. All of them have

1143
00:51:42,480 --> 00:51:45,160
Speaker 2: been down considerably the last five to six matches. Starting

1144
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:47,320
Speaker 2: to play more likely did last year, which was a

1145
00:51:47,440 --> 00:51:50,719
Speaker 2: solid upper mid table team but not one that was

1146
00:51:50,800 --> 00:51:53,960
Speaker 2: really challenging for fourth or fifth, and that line currently

1147
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:56,680
Speaker 2: with them being a little bit overvalued suggests that they're

1148
00:51:56,680 --> 00:51:58,839
Speaker 2: playing more like a top four team against Norwich here,

1149
00:51:58,880 --> 00:52:01,279
Speaker 2: and they're really not. And so given that they have

1150
00:52:01,360 --> 00:52:03,840
Speaker 2: some attacking regression coming in terms of their finishing ability,

1151
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 2: and given that they're not playing quite as well as

1152
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 2: they were call Antonio seems to be in a bit

1153
00:52:08,080 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 2: of a rut in terms of creating chances for him.

1154
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:12,719
Speaker 2: I do not trust them to get margin here, and

1155
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:15,000
Speaker 2: so I like the Canaries plus one and a half

1156
00:52:15,360 --> 00:52:18,360
Speaker 2: at minus one twenty five at BJ.

1157
00:52:18,239 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 1: Before we get out of here. Give the folks your

1158
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:21,439
Speaker 1: favorite EPO bet this week.

1159
00:52:22,200 --> 00:52:25,040
Speaker 3: Liverpool minus one at plus one p fifteen on the

1160
00:52:25,120 --> 00:52:28,520
Speaker 3: road at Tottenham on Sunday. Tottenham has been good under

1161
00:52:28,520 --> 00:52:31,439
Speaker 3: Antonio Conte and their four Premier League matches six point

1162
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:34,239
Speaker 3: nine expected goals four only three point five against, but

1163
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:36,919
Speaker 3: they actually haven't really played a murderer's row. They faced

1164
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:41,120
Speaker 3: an injury riddled Everton squad, Leeds United, Brentford and Norwich,

1165
00:52:41,200 --> 00:52:43,440
Speaker 3: so Liverpool is going to be a massive step up

1166
00:52:43,480 --> 00:52:47,280
Speaker 3: in competition. Spurs also dealing with some COVID slash injury

1167
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:52,960
Speaker 3: related stuff right now going into this match. Brian gil Emerson,

1168
00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:58,160
Speaker 3: Youngman's son Oliver skip, Lucas Mora, Sergio Reggaon and Christian

1169
00:52:58,239 --> 00:53:00,719
Speaker 3: Romero are all going to be out. That's a big problem,

1170
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:04,720
Speaker 3: especially defensively against Liverpool, who's averaging two point six expected

1171
00:53:04,760 --> 00:53:07,360
Speaker 3: goals per match in the Premier League this season. The

1172
00:53:07,400 --> 00:53:09,440
Speaker 3: biggest thing though, is if you're going to beat Liverpool,

1173
00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:11,399
Speaker 3: you have to be able to press them, and I'm

1174
00:53:11,400 --> 00:53:13,080
Speaker 3: not sure Tottenham is able to do that with how

1175
00:53:13,160 --> 00:53:16,240
Speaker 3: shorthanded they are, so it's hard for me to envision

1176
00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:18,520
Speaker 3: a scenario where Tottham doesn't get pinned into their own

1177
00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:21,799
Speaker 3: final third and get overwhelmed by Liverpool's press. I think

1178
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 3: Liverpool could put two, potentially three on the board on

1179
00:53:23,960 --> 00:53:27,000
Speaker 3: Totham's defense with all these guys being out, So I

1180
00:53:27,160 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 3: love the Reds minus one at plus one fifteen.

1181
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:33,239
Speaker 1: That will wrap up another episode of Wonder Goal. We

1182
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:35,759
Speaker 1: thank you very much for listening and we will see

1183
00:53:35,800 --> 00:53:38,359
Speaker 1: you again on Monday morning as we take a look

1184
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:41,359
Speaker 1: at the Champions League Round of sixteen, a nice early

1185
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:44,160
Speaker 1: look there and talk about the midweek matches to come

1186
00:53:44,560 --> 00:53:47,400
Speaker 1: next week. So for BJ Cunningham, for Anthony Dubunda, I'm

1187
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 1: Michael Leebuff. Good luck with all your bets this weekend