1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cockley and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,760 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 2: I'm Tyler Kendall alongside Joe Matthew, and as Joe laid 7 00:00:28,440 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 2: out earlier, we have our full attention today on Israel, 8 00:00:31,440 --> 00:00:34,200 Speaker 2: as Vice President Jade Vance begins a three day tour 9 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:38,280 Speaker 2: of the country. He spoke earlier today to reporters. He 10 00:00:38,440 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 2: was at this US led military civilian Command center, which 11 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 2: is hoping to help implement this ceasefire for the long term. 12 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:49,840 Speaker 2: She told reporters zough that there's a lot of hard 13 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 2: work ahead. 14 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 3: There's this inclination to say, oh, this is the end 15 00:00:54,000 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 3: of the ceasefire, this is the end of the peace plan. 16 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:57,319 Speaker 4: It's not the end. 17 00:00:57,720 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 3: It is, in fact, exactly how this is going to 18 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 3: have to when you have people who hate each other, 19 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 3: who've been fighting against each other for a very long time. 20 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:07,759 Speaker 3: We are doing very well. We are in a very 21 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 3: good place. We're going to have to keep working on it. 22 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:12,039 Speaker 3: But I think we have the team to do exactly that. 23 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 5: Vice President in Tel Aviv earlier, standing alongside if you're 24 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 5: with us on Bloomberg TV, Jared Kushner, Steve Whitkoff, they're 25 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:22,520 Speaker 5: on the trip together here. As Tyler mentioned, he'll have 26 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 5: a couple of days ahead, but he went on to 27 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:28,200 Speaker 5: chide the media for celebrating, as he mentioned the idea 28 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 5: of failure and it was a tough weekend. We have 29 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 5: to be honest about what's been happening on the ground. 30 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:35,760 Speaker 5: Heavy fighting in Gaza over the weekend, with both the 31 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 5: deadly Hamas ambush and Israeli airstrikes are causing many to 32 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 5: ask the very obvious question if this ceasefire can hold. 33 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:47,199 Speaker 5: Before we're joined by Natasha Hall at CSIS, we spend 34 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 5: some time with Nick Watdams, who runs our national security 35 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 5: coverage here from Washington. 36 00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 6: He's with us in our DC bureau. 37 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 5: Nick, I don't know if it's possible to answer this 38 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 5: question right now. What are you watching to try to 39 00:01:57,160 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 5: find out? 40 00:01:58,160 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 7: Uh? 41 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 8: Well, I think the big question is going to be 42 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:03,960 Speaker 8: what happens next and whether Hamas is able to is 43 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:07,280 Speaker 8: willing to disarm. I mean, so you had the initial 44 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 8: element of the ceasefire, which was the release of hostages 45 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:13,680 Speaker 8: and the release of Palestinian prisoners. And now we move 46 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 8: to the much more difficult phases what happens to Hamas 47 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,640 Speaker 8: because Israel has made very clear along that it will 48 00:02:19,639 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 8: not accept a solution in Gaza where Hamas remains in 49 00:02:23,720 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 8: power or with any sort of controller leverage. They basically 50 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:30,519 Speaker 8: want it wiped off the map. And then obviously Hamas 51 00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 8: counters and says, we don't really have any interest in that, 52 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:36,120 Speaker 8: though they did say recently, you know, we are willing 53 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 8: to undergo this power transition. But I mean, when I 54 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 8: look at that, what I really see is, you know, 55 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 8: the Trump administration has built this ceasefire as a signature 56 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:50,440 Speaker 8: achievement by the president. Obviously they want it to stick. 57 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 8: If it doesn't stick, it will also be seen as 58 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:54,920 Speaker 8: a major failure, not only for the region, but it 59 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:57,400 Speaker 8: will say a lot about his deal making prowess. I mean, 60 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 8: they have hailed this as something that essentially should get 61 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 8: him the Nobel Peace Prize, and if you know, ten 62 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 8: days into it, it's already showing signs of failure. I mean, 63 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:08,760 Speaker 8: you should be pointed out that, yes, Vice President is 64 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 8: right these things do not proceed smoothly a lot of 65 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:14,760 Speaker 8: the time, and the challenges really holding the thing together. 66 00:03:15,000 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about some of the ways that the 67 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,959 Speaker 2: administration is trying to make this stick. Can you walk 68 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 2: us through what this Coordination Center entails. We know that 69 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 2: about two hundred American troops are staffed there, but what 70 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,000 Speaker 2: does this effort actually look like in practice? What is 71 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 2: happening on the ground. As we know that the Vice 72 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 2: President is visiting with this center today. 73 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 8: I mean he's there really sort of as a symbolic 74 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:42,800 Speaker 8: show of support and trying to, I think send a 75 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:47,120 Speaker 8: message to both sides. Listen, Vice President is here, President 76 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 8: Donald Trump, and the administration has a great deal invested 77 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 8: in this deal, and so that's in a way putting 78 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 8: pressure on Israel not to go too far against Hamas 79 00:03:55,840 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 8: and also trying to exert pressure on Hamas, so keeping 80 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,920 Speaker 8: this thing from are spinning out of control, you know. 81 00:04:03,000 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 8: And the Joint Coordination Center really is a similar move 82 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 8: by the US. 83 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 4: They're monitoring the ceasefire. 84 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 8: He's been very explicit they're not going to be US 85 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 8: troops on the ground in Gaza, but it's really a 86 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:17,719 Speaker 8: way of sort of the US putting its assets where 87 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 8: its mouth is saying we have a stake in this 88 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 8: as well, to try to keep the two sides in 89 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:27,600 Speaker 8: this thing and committed to a ceasefire where efforts at ceasefires. 90 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 4: In the past have failed so many times. 91 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:31,360 Speaker 5: Those American troops will not cross in the Gaza, is 92 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 5: what we have heard. Correct, Are they directing IDF in Gaza? 93 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,560 Speaker 4: We have not gotten that level of detail. 94 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 8: I think what you're seeing really is the US offering intelligence, 95 00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:49,600 Speaker 8: satellite imagery, other assets to help identify where ceasefire violations 96 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:53,480 Speaker 8: are occurring, and then bringing us and vice and involvement. 97 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 8: I mean, you know, the US Central Command has been 98 00:04:55,640 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 8: involved a great deal. For example, when Israel exchanged fire 99 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:04,600 Speaker 8: with Iran Israelly armed forces, we're consulting with the US 100 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 8: military over what to do and how to respond. 101 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 4: So there is a deep partnership between the. 102 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 8: US military and the Israeli military and has been very 103 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:15,640 Speaker 8: explicitly in the last couple of years. 104 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 4: So I think what you're seeing is a continuation of 105 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:18,160 Speaker 4: them in. 106 00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:20,039 Speaker 2: The final minute we have. I want to turn to 107 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:22,160 Speaker 2: another foreign policy issue, which is that we had this 108 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 2: redhead on the terminal people familiar telling Bloomberg News that 109 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 2: European allies are working with Ukraine to prepare a twelve 110 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:32,920 Speaker 2: point peace proposal. Now, it was interesting to me because 111 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:34,800 Speaker 2: it mirrors a little of what we've heard in Gauza, 112 00:05:34,800 --> 00:05:38,400 Speaker 2: including that President Trump could potentially lead a peace commission 113 00:05:38,839 --> 00:05:41,599 Speaker 2: that would oversee the ceasefire. Just top lines here. What 114 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 2: do we know about what this plan would entail if 115 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:44,600 Speaker 2: it goes through. 116 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 8: Well, I think what you're really seeing is a European 117 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:51,839 Speaker 8: effort to essentially set the terms of a potential Ukraine 118 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:55,279 Speaker 8: deal along the lines of what President Trump had done 119 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 8: in Gaza, to try to mimic that it would offer 120 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 8: some form of security guarantees for Ukraine. But really what 121 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 8: this is is an effort by the Europeans to get 122 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 8: involved and say, essentially, okay, here's a potential proposal that 123 00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:13,599 Speaker 8: we could get both sides to agree to. Obviously, US 124 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:17,039 Speaker 8: involvement would need to be crucial to this as well. 125 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 8: There's some indication that the Trump administration has not quite 126 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,159 Speaker 8: given its impromontre to this. So this is really a 127 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 8: push by the Europeans to essentially halt the fighting where 128 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:30,599 Speaker 8: it is now and then push the two sides toward 129 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 8: a conversation. 130 00:06:31,720 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 4: They're not talking. 131 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:34,440 Speaker 8: They want to at least give them something to talk 132 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:38,239 Speaker 8: about as we head into the possibility of a Trump 133 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:40,160 Speaker 8: Putin summit at some point in the future. 134 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Nick Wanhams, he runs our national security 135 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:46,680 Speaker 2: coverage here in Washington. Thank you so much, and to 136 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 2: expand the conversation, we're joined now by Natasha Hall, non 137 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:55,039 Speaker 2: Resident Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Natasha, 138 00:06:55,080 --> 00:06:58,520 Speaker 2: thanks so much for joining Bloomberg today. And as we've 139 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:01,800 Speaker 2: been talking about Vice President Javance is there in Israel. 140 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:04,239 Speaker 2: He said that there is still work to be done 141 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:07,039 Speaker 2: in a long road ahead. Just from your view, what 142 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:09,679 Speaker 2: are some of those biggest hurdles that we could actually 143 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 2: see progress on in the coming days and weeks. 144 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:15,679 Speaker 4: Yeah, thanks for having me again. 145 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 9: I mean, I think that Jade Vance's visit is really 146 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 9: meant to throw more weight behind this peace proposal, because 147 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 9: one should note that this was a peace plan, not 148 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 9: just the ceasefire agreement. And we're already seeing the ceasefire 149 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 9: agreement fall apart within the first week, so there's a 150 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 9: lot of hurdles ahead. An answer to your question in 151 00:07:37,200 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 9: terms of aid trucks going in. Israel has already said 152 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 9: that it's slashing that in half due to the delayed 153 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:48,200 Speaker 9: return of deceased hostages from MS. We've seen one hundred 154 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:53,200 Speaker 9: killed in recent days due to Israeli airstrikes. We're seeing 155 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:56,360 Speaker 9: a lot of lawlessness in Gaza right now because there's 156 00:07:56,400 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 9: really no security mechanisms in place. There's a lot that 157 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 9: can potentially go wrong. So it's good to hear the 158 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 9: Vice President saying they understand that the signing of this 159 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:09,520 Speaker 9: first phase of the agreement is not the end of it, 160 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 9: and that there's a lot of hard work ahead. Because 161 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 9: I think myself and many other analysts watching this very closely, 162 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 9: I've said exactly that that the end of US pressure 163 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 9: to move this through is simply not over. 164 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 5: Hard work is a given, Natasha, But what's the threshold 165 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 5: for violence? Sunday I wondered if we would still have 166 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 5: a ceasefire by the time the work week opened here 167 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 5: when Israel launch strikes against TAMAS in Gaza suspended all 168 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 5: AID shipments. How many more headlines like that can a 169 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 5: cease fire survive? 170 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 4: Thank you so much for that question. 171 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 9: I think it's a really vital question for all of 172 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:52,000 Speaker 9: us to be asking, because the reality, I think is 173 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 9: that the US and the international community might accept a 174 00:08:55,520 --> 00:08:59,199 Speaker 9: very low boil essentially of violence in Gaza as long 175 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 9: as it wasn't making the headlines quite in the same 176 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:05,440 Speaker 9: way that the famine and the constant bombardment was just 177 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 9: you know. 178 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 4: Days earlier. 179 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:10,200 Speaker 9: But the reality is that Israel can really put the 180 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 9: pressure on Gaza simply through these aid obstructions as we've 181 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 9: seen in the past week, and the sort of more 182 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 9: irregular air strikes in addition to the fact that Israeli 183 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 9: forces still occupy more than half of Gazen territory. So 184 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 9: you know, there's the direct violence of the actual war 185 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:33,120 Speaker 9: and the conflict, but then there's also the indirect violence 186 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:37,520 Speaker 9: on a place that has been experiencing widespread famine, and 187 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 9: you know, really requires somewhat of a Marshall plan, not 188 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:45,920 Speaker 9: just sort of a seeping in of hundreds of trucks 189 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 9: per day. It really needs to be a pronounced, scaled 190 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:54,560 Speaker 9: up response to reverse I think some of that indirect violence. 191 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 9: But I think the issue here is whether or not 192 00:09:57,240 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 9: there's going to be put in place a monitoring mechanism 193 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,040 Speaker 9: that really looks at not just the number of trucks 194 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 9: going through, but actually the effects on the ground. Are 195 00:10:06,520 --> 00:10:09,960 Speaker 9: we seeing a reversal of a lot of the various 196 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:13,319 Speaker 9: issues that I just mentioned, starviation, the lack of medical 197 00:10:13,360 --> 00:10:16,480 Speaker 9: personnel and equipment. Are we seeing a reversal and a 198 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 9: rebuilding of the Gaza Strip because we haven't even gotten 199 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 9: to the phase two. What we're talking about an international 200 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:28,960 Speaker 9: stabilization force, the actual rebuilding of Gaza. Eighty percent of 201 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:32,640 Speaker 9: the structures have been destroyed in the Gaza Strip, so 202 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 9: there's a long road ahead. 203 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:40,360 Speaker 2: Well, speaking about these big questions, including what the reconstruction 204 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 2: of Gaza is going to look like. Another big question 205 00:10:43,280 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 2: is surrounding the future of whether or not HAMAS is 206 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:49,520 Speaker 2: going to disarm, And we heard from President Trump earlier 207 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:53,320 Speaker 2: today on a truth social posting that if Hamas does 208 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 2: not disarm, quote, an end to Hamas will be fast, furious, 209 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:02,319 Speaker 2: and brutal unquote. Can you just give us a little 210 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 2: bit of context here, What do the discussions look like 211 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 2: for Hamas to disarm and what are we looking at 212 00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 2: if the group ultimately doesn't. 213 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:15,320 Speaker 9: Right, So let's just zoom out a little bit and 214 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 9: acknowledge the fact that hems regardless of what anyone thinks 215 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:22,680 Speaker 9: of them, has been the government in Gaza for over 216 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 9: two decades and has also been essentially the police force there, 217 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 9: and right now you have essentially vacuums throughout the Gaza strip. 218 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:35,920 Speaker 9: There is no International Stabilization Force, there is no other entity, 219 00:11:36,400 --> 00:11:42,679 Speaker 9: and so you've seen rising inter clan intergaining violence in Hems, 220 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 9: which in Gaza, which Hemas has you know, essentially tried 221 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 9: to eradicate through these very public executions that we've seen 222 00:11:54,440 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 9: in recent days. But I think the real question is 223 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,880 Speaker 9: if you disarm Hems, which is clearly the goal of 224 00:12:00,960 --> 00:12:04,439 Speaker 9: many regional partners in Israel and the United States and others, 225 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:07,960 Speaker 9: what will take its place, Because there needs to be 226 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 9: some kind of governance structure in Gaza, and there needs 227 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 9: to be some kind of police force as well, because 228 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 9: what we've seen is Israel has also been supporting some 229 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:22,120 Speaker 9: of these other gangs and militias within Gaza that have 230 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 9: been looting aid in recent months, So there needs to 231 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 9: be something there. So I think the big question is, 232 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:34,840 Speaker 9: you know, if the International Stabilization Force, by some accounts, 233 00:12:34,920 --> 00:12:38,319 Speaker 9: might take months to actually put in place, what's going 234 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 9: to be there in the meantime to restore order to 235 00:12:43,040 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 9: allow you know, humanitarian workers to go through in safety, etc. 236 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:50,600 Speaker 9: And that's a really big question. And so I think 237 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:53,439 Speaker 9: for that reason, you've seen President Trump essentially go back 238 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 9: and forth on this. At one point he said he's 239 00:12:56,120 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 9: not so unhappy about seeing these public executions of gang 240 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 9: members by Hems and at the same time saying that 241 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 9: they need to eradicate Hems if it feels to disarm. 242 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 9: So I mean, I think that this is a larger question. 243 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 9: Who is going to provide security in Gaza in the 244 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 9: weeks and months. 245 00:13:14,880 --> 00:13:16,720 Speaker 6: Ahead, Natasha. 246 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:19,560 Speaker 5: The President said a lot in that post at nine 247 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:23,680 Speaker 5: o'clock this morning, including numerous of our now great allies 248 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 5: as he called them, in the Middle East and areas 249 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:29,160 Speaker 5: surrounding the Middle East, have explicitly and strongly with great 250 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 5: enthusiasm and for me, they would welcome the opportunity, at 251 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:34,559 Speaker 5: my request, to go into Gaza with a heavy force 252 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 5: and straighten out Hamas if Hamas continues to act badly 253 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 5: in violation. 254 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 6: Of their agreement with us. I'm just wondering your. 255 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 5: Thoughts on the neighbors, as the President likes to call them, 256 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 5: in light of the headline today that the Saudi Crown 257 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:49,720 Speaker 5: Prince will be visiting. 258 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 6: The White House next month. What will that meeting bring. 259 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 9: Yeah, well, I think the Saudi Crown Prince MBS will 260 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,360 Speaker 9: be focused very much on a defense power with the 261 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 9: United States rather than simply offering a peace force, as 262 00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 9: he put it, to the Gaza Strip. Listen, I don't 263 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:11,560 Speaker 9: think that this is attractive to any Arab or Muslim country. 264 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:15,319 Speaker 9: We're still seeing air strikes, we're still seeing in fighting. 265 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 9: This is not an area that I think any Arab 266 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 9: or Muslim country would want to inject their own forces 267 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:25,240 Speaker 9: into because it's not really peace keeping, it's peace enforcing, 268 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:29,920 Speaker 9: which one could also say is fighting. And so I 269 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 9: think that's that's the big issue today. It's it's probably 270 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,240 Speaker 9: not going to be a majority force from oil orig nations, 271 00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 9: but it's probably going to be from Egypt and other 272 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 9: countries that actually stand up a pretty major military elements 273 00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 9: or have a you know, a larger military. 274 00:14:47,960 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 4: To offer to the Gaza Strip. 275 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:53,760 Speaker 9: But I think that that remains to be seen again 276 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:57,560 Speaker 9: with those forces will will entail. We haven't even really 277 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 9: talked very much about how much much money these oil 278 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:05,120 Speaker 9: rich countries are willing to inject into Gaza, which is 279 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:08,640 Speaker 9: going to take about fifty billion or more to reconstruct. 280 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 9: So you know again, I think we're a long ways 281 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 9: off from seeing Saudi cources. 282 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 6: Natasha, thank you. 283 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 5: It's always a pleasure to spend some time Natasha Hall 284 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:23,880 Speaker 5: at csis the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 285 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 6: We've got a rise on the Rose Garden Club. 286 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 5: We're going to assemble our panel next right here on 287 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 5: the fastest show in politics, This is Bloomberg. Stay with 288 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 5: us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming 289 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:35,120 Speaker 5: up after this. 290 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:44,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 291 00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 292 00:15:47,600 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen 293 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:54,120 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 294 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 295 00:15:56,640 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 2: We am one Ie on Pennsylvania Avenue, where today President 296 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,480 Speaker 2: Trump welcomed Senate Republicans. 297 00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 4: They spoke about a. 298 00:16:03,560 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 2: Range of issues earlier, including what's been an expedited process 299 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 2: for confirmation of some of President Trump's nominees, but of course, 300 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:14,080 Speaker 2: top of mind has been the government shut down, which 301 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 2: is now officially in day twenty one, with a little 302 00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 2: sign that there is any progress towards a deal to 303 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 2: reopen now. President Trump addressed this earlier, saying that it 304 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 2: is all about portisan politics. 305 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 7: Unfortunately in a craven and pointless active partisan spite. Chuck Schumer, 306 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 7: who I have known for a long time, and the 307 00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 7: radical left Democrats are holding the entire federal government hostage 308 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:42,720 Speaker 7: to appease the extremists in their party. 309 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 5: President Trump, reading for paired remarks in the Rose Garden, 310 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 5: or the Rose Garden Club, as he likes to put it, 311 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 5: a short time ago, where Republican senators have gathered in 312 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:55,880 Speaker 5: the sun today to celebrate unity, the President inviting them 313 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 5: to talk about holding the line on the government shut 314 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 5: down in helping to pass his nominations in the Senate, 315 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 5: which have been moving on a bit more. And we've 316 00:17:03,360 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 5: got a new wrinkle on that that we'll mention to you. 317 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:11,640 Speaker 5: The President's nominee to run the Special Council's Office could 318 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:14,119 Speaker 5: be in trouble. His hearing is set for Thursday, and 319 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:17,240 Speaker 5: we've got another potential text scandal, it looks like. But 320 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:19,399 Speaker 5: on day twenty one, we are still talking about a 321 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 5: shutdown with no end in sight, and in fact even 322 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:26,159 Speaker 5: floating the idea. You know that things could be a 323 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:28,879 Speaker 5: little bit troubled when we're floating the idea of a 324 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 5: year long continuing resolution. Just kick the can for a 325 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 5: year so we don't have to fight anymore. That's the 326 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:37,680 Speaker 5: narrative today in the Capitol as we assemble our political panel. 327 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:41,639 Speaker 5: Bloomberg Politics contributor Democratic analyst Jeanie Shanzano is with US 328 00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 5: Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. 329 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 6: Mora Gillespie is with US as well. 330 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:52,240 Speaker 5: Republican strategist and founder of Bluestack Strategies, Mara, you worked 331 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:54,520 Speaker 5: for a former Speaker of the House in John Bayner, 332 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:57,479 Speaker 5: and the idea of a year long CR is something 333 00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:59,399 Speaker 5: that a lot of Republicans have analergy to. 334 00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 6: Is that in fact how this all ends. 335 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:06,119 Speaker 10: I mean, seeing out of my years in secret Byner's office, 336 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:08,119 Speaker 10: it's hard for me to maybe stomach that. But I 337 00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 10: do think that things are just so divisive right now 338 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:15,640 Speaker 10: that I worry that without something more long term, we'll 339 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:18,440 Speaker 10: be having this fight on repeat and unfortunately have another 340 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:20,520 Speaker 10: shutdown in the future, and I'd rather not see that happen. 341 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:24,679 Speaker 10: And so I do think that maybe looking at getting 342 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:27,480 Speaker 10: past this stage, which at this point and I know 343 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,119 Speaker 10: we'll get into it, but it does feel as though 344 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:32,159 Speaker 10: Democrats need to come to the come and just end 345 00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:35,440 Speaker 10: a shutdown, because I do think Fune is being fair 346 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 10: in sentence that he's willing to have conversations, he's willing 347 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:42,920 Speaker 10: to bring legilation to the floor to extend subsidies in 348 00:18:42,960 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 10: a way that also doesn't, you know, isolate every Republican 349 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 10: vote in both chambers. But this shutdown isn't serving the 350 00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 10: greater good. And I think that no American benefits when 351 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:57,439 Speaker 10: we have a government shutdown, and unfortunately Congress has for 352 00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 10: a long time struggled to get this, you know, the 353 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,800 Speaker 10: funding appropriations done in a timely fashion. 354 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:08,120 Speaker 2: Well, Jeanie, what is the risk reward calculus here for Democrats? Because, 355 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 2: as Mora points out, we've heard from Senate Majority Leader 356 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:14,199 Speaker 2: John Thune who says that Democrats can have a up 357 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 2: and down vote on a one year extension of those 358 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 2: premium Affordable Care Act tax subsidies. How are Democrats looking 359 00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:23,399 Speaker 2: at their options on the table right now or is 360 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 2: this just going to keep going on until they actually 361 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:27,640 Speaker 2: get some tangible policy changes. 362 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:30,640 Speaker 6: Yeah, you know, my view. 363 00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:35,680 Speaker 11: Tyler is that shutdowns never result in policy changes or wins, 364 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:40,240 Speaker 11: I should say. And so it's usually and always about 365 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 11: the politics of this thing. And at this point, both 366 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,960 Speaker 11: sides feel like they're winning on the politics, and that's 367 00:19:46,040 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 11: the problem. Until one or both start to feel pain, 368 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:53,200 Speaker 11: we're not going to see this change. And so Democrats, 369 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 11: I suspect will hold out at least until that November 370 00:19:57,240 --> 00:20:01,360 Speaker 11: one date, because of course, what we're going to see then, 371 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 11: and Bloomberg has been reporting this is the skyrocketing of 372 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:09,159 Speaker 11: healthcare subsidies I think, Joe you said at the beginning 373 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:12,040 Speaker 11: of the top of the show quadrupling, and Georgia about 374 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:15,199 Speaker 11: a quarter in Maine, almost twenty percent in Michigan. The 375 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 11: list goes on and on, and oddly, this is going 376 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:23,679 Speaker 11: to be impacting Trump's states Red states more viciously than 377 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:26,680 Speaker 11: it's going to impact blue states. So it's his own voters, 378 00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:29,439 Speaker 11: and the president knows that because he's spoken about it 379 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:31,719 Speaker 11: in the past. So I think we will see the 380 00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 11: Democrats hold out for that and the reality of this. 381 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:38,639 Speaker 11: And I don't know anybody in Washington who doesn't think 382 00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:41,639 Speaker 11: that this thing also is not going to end until 383 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:44,639 Speaker 11: one person comes to the table and forces it. And 384 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 11: that one person, I'm sorry to say as a Democrat 385 00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:50,080 Speaker 11: is not Chuck Schumer, it is Donald Trump. Until Donald 386 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,240 Speaker 11: Trump pulls the plug on this thing, it is. 387 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:53,159 Speaker 6: Not going to move forward. 388 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,960 Speaker 5: Donald Trump just a short time ago invited John Thune 389 00:20:57,960 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 5: to the podium in the Rose Garden to talk to 390 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:03,239 Speaker 5: his members who were lunching in the sun, knowing that 391 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:06,120 Speaker 5: he said, we may have no choice but to pursue 392 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,440 Speaker 5: a one year cr And by the way, Donald Trump 393 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:09,919 Speaker 5: may not have a problem with that. It was the 394 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:12,080 Speaker 5: White House that suggested that a couple of months ago, 395 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 5: when everyone's had exploded on Capitol Hill at the idea 396 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 5: that could in fact become a reality. But I want 397 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,280 Speaker 5: to ask you about the nominations that are also being 398 00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:23,359 Speaker 5: celebrated in the Rose Garden Club today. It's not just 399 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 5: holding the line on the shutdown mora. As you well know, 400 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:30,600 Speaker 5: the President wanted to thank Republican senators for moving unblock 401 00:21:30,680 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 5: in some cases a huge number of nominees. Of course, 402 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:36,919 Speaker 5: that's the job of the Senate, and it's one that 403 00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 5: doesn't get a lot of coverage. But there's one that 404 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:42,840 Speaker 5: may just not make it. According to John Thune himself, quote, 405 00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:46,720 Speaker 5: he's not going to pass the line from the Majority leader. 406 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:51,880 Speaker 5: We're talking about Paul Engracia, the President's nominee to run 407 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 5: the Office of the Special Council. This is another text 408 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:59,679 Speaker 5: scandal that has been made public by Politico allegedly of course, 409 00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:03,199 Speaker 5: that has now prompted at least three other Republicans to 410 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 5: oppose his nomination. In this text chain, which was repeatedly 411 00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:13,600 Speaker 5: bumping into themes of Nazism, he said that Martin Luther 412 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:17,400 Speaker 5: King Junior's holiday should be tossed into the seventh circle 413 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,720 Speaker 5: of Hell, and that when asked about his viewpoints, he 414 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,919 Speaker 5: said he has a bit of a Nazi streak. Is 415 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:28,480 Speaker 5: mister Ingrassia's nomination as good as dead Mara? 416 00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 10: It certainly shouldn't be. I mean, that's a disgusting way 417 00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 10: to speak, just even if it's in private text messages. 418 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:38,159 Speaker 10: The fact that he has that on his heart and 419 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:41,520 Speaker 10: he believes that enough to say it, whether he's in 420 00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:44,600 Speaker 10: his mind joking or not, there's something that spurred him 421 00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:48,120 Speaker 10: to say it, and that's just qualifying in it up itself, 422 00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 10: and so soon is right to say that there's not 423 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:52,640 Speaker 10: going to pass on Thursday. I'm sure that's a conversation 424 00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 10: is being had in at lunch right now as they're celebrating. 425 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:57,639 Speaker 10: You know, I think there are probably some Republicans editors 426 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,440 Speaker 10: who have a bit of a queasiness about some of 427 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 10: the ones that they've gotten through in that first few 428 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 10: months there that you know, I think of PAMBONDI I 429 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:08,440 Speaker 10: think of RFK Junior. I think there are a couple 430 00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 10: of senators who are wondering if they made the right choices. 431 00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,000 Speaker 10: But with this, they seem the fact that so many 432 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,320 Speaker 10: again you said three, at least maybe four or five 433 00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:18,280 Speaker 10: I've seen they're going to say that this isn't a 434 00:23:18,320 --> 00:23:20,360 Speaker 10: yes vote for them. That's encouraging to me. 435 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 2: Right, and the Republican senators expressing opposition. The list keeps building. 436 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,400 Speaker 2: We also heard from Senator James Lankford, a Republican from Oklahoma, 437 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,680 Speaker 2: earlier today saying that he thinks in Gracia should withdraw. 438 00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,520 Speaker 2: Janie is just is this just mounting pressure on the 439 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 2: White House? When can we expect to hear from them, 440 00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 2: if at all, on this nomination? 441 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:41,640 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean it. 442 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:45,120 Speaker 11: Is telling, and I agree wholeheartedly with what Mora just said. 443 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,360 Speaker 11: It is telling to me that the White House has 444 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,360 Speaker 11: not yet come out and said we are going to 445 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 11: withdraw his name considering how disgusting these texts are. This is, 446 00:23:56,359 --> 00:24:00,520 Speaker 11: though not surprising from the White House. Right have had 447 00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,959 Speaker 11: a president who has flirted with neo Nazis in the past. 448 00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 6: He is being accused by the way at. 449 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:12,679 Speaker 11: The Quantico speech of dog whistling to neo Nazis. The 450 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,600 Speaker 11: list of things goes on and on, and of course 451 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,320 Speaker 11: this comes at a time when people in this country 452 00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,920 Speaker 11: who have long thought for civil rights are feeling under 453 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:28,200 Speaker 11: threat from a variety of specters, including the attack on DEI, 454 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,120 Speaker 11: but also the voting rights that case that the Supreme 455 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,560 Speaker 11: Court is arguing and may strike down Section two any 456 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,639 Speaker 11: day now or at least in the spring. So it 457 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:42,840 Speaker 11: is shocking and his name should be withdrawn immediately from 458 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:46,040 Speaker 11: this White House. But they haven't, at least as far 459 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:49,199 Speaker 11: as I know, had any statement on this, which is 460 00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:53,200 Speaker 11: not surprising, but it is upsetting. 461 00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,960 Speaker 5: It's an oddity here because I don't think anyone really 462 00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,200 Speaker 5: even knows who leads the office of the Special Council. 463 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,920 Speaker 5: It's not like we're talking about Attorney General here more 464 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 5: or Secretary of State. This could have been handled pretty quietly, 465 00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:10,200 Speaker 5: right if you're a nominee. It's not unusual to have 466 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:12,800 Speaker 5: a withdrawal letter handing in case something happens. 467 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 6: Does Engracia just handle this on his own? 468 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:17,679 Speaker 9: I mean, I don't know. 469 00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:19,439 Speaker 10: I think when you look at some of the Trump 470 00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:23,960 Speaker 10: White House, either whether they're candidates or acting positions, they 471 00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:27,560 Speaker 10: have all mostly decided to go with the Trump method 472 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:31,639 Speaker 10: of doubling down, tripling down, and holding firm and more 473 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:33,720 Speaker 10: or less hoping that the President will back them, and 474 00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:37,840 Speaker 10: then the public scrutiny and our distaste for it will 475 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:41,040 Speaker 10: subside because something else will come and distract us from 476 00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,680 Speaker 10: their issue. And unfortunately, I do think that's probably what 477 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:46,040 Speaker 10: he is holding out for. He's waiting for direction from 478 00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:47,560 Speaker 10: the White House. He's not going to back down on 479 00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,280 Speaker 10: his Zone accord, which speaks more about him and his 480 00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:54,399 Speaker 10: own personal moral compass than anything else. But I do 481 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:55,840 Speaker 10: think there are some people in the White House who 482 00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,399 Speaker 10: should have acted and have not done so yet. And 483 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 10: maybe today's meetings with Republican senators giving the President a 484 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,080 Speaker 10: real picture of what's going to happen on Thursday, may 485 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,880 Speaker 10: help spur that action to take place today. 486 00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:11,159 Speaker 2: Genie final thirty seconds here, I do you want to 487 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 2: ask you about some policy we could see hit the 488 00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:16,000 Speaker 2: Senate floor this week, this bill to pay federal workers 489 00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:19,359 Speaker 2: in our troops. Are we expecting this to actually pass 490 00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,199 Speaker 2: amid the shutdown because it looks like Democrats are the 491 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 2: ones opposing this. 492 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,119 Speaker 11: Yeah, you know, my view is that it should pass, 493 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,800 Speaker 11: but I can see the democrats point, which is that 494 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:34,119 Speaker 11: it still doesn't address the underlying issue, which is the 495 00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,679 Speaker 11: Obamacare subsidies. So I think it's still an open question 496 00:26:37,760 --> 00:26:41,000 Speaker 11: whether it passed. And of course you've got some Democrats 497 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,520 Speaker 11: like Fetterman out there calling for real changes to Senate 498 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:47,840 Speaker 11: rules to avoid these kinds of things in the future. 499 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,880 Speaker 11: In this filibuster and the necessity of the philipbuster proof 500 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:55,200 Speaker 11: majority that's going to obviously rankle people on both sides 501 00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:55,760 Speaker 11: of the aisle. 502 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:02,199 Speaker 2: All Right, our political panel today, Shanzano and MARAGILEPSI, we 503 00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,040 Speaker 2: thank you both so much for joining as always, And Joe, 504 00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:08,040 Speaker 2: we did get a redhead on the Bloomberg terminal moments ago. 505 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,960 Speaker 2: President Trump's administration is involved in talks for a US 506 00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,960 Speaker 2: company to access one of the world's largest untapped deposits 507 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,480 Speaker 2: of tungsten in Kazakhstan. 508 00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,439 Speaker 5: That's right, news coming from Kazakhstan potentially by way of 509 00:27:21,440 --> 00:27:21,920 Speaker 5: the White House. 510 00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:23,119 Speaker 6: We'll keep tabs on this for you. 511 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:25,639 Speaker 5: As Tyler mentioned, it just went red on the terminal, 512 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,000 Speaker 5: so we'll have much more straight ahead. Also, our conversation 513 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 5: with Congressman Brian Style. We've been talking shutdown. Let's hear 514 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:34,200 Speaker 5: from a stakeholder in the House. The Republican from Wisconsin 515 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,120 Speaker 5: is in the nation's capital, and we'll join us live 516 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:40,000 Speaker 5: straight ahead here as we talk politics in Washington on 517 00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:42,679 Speaker 5: Balance of Power. This is Bloomberg. Stay with us on 518 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:45,320 Speaker 5: Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this. 519 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:53,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketsas 520 00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:56,600 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple 521 00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:59,639 Speaker 1: Cockway and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 522 00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:03,160 Speaker 1: can still listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 523 00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:07,160 Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty 524 00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:08,960 Speaker 1: with our. 525 00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,119 Speaker 5: Eyes on Capitol Hill and a government shutdown that is 526 00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 5: now twenty one days old. Maybe you've stopped keeping count 527 00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 5: at this point because nobody seems to see light at 528 00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:22,240 Speaker 5: the end of the tunnel. We do see some important dates, though, 529 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:26,879 Speaker 5: including the next paycheck fulfillment for our military or active 530 00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 5: duty military, remembering that eight billion dollars at the President 531 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:33,119 Speaker 5: managed to find to pay the troops only covers a 532 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,879 Speaker 5: single pay period. You've also got federal law enforcement, and 533 00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:39,920 Speaker 5: there's a piece of legislation that's going up in the 534 00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:42,120 Speaker 5: United States Senate that would address. 535 00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:45,040 Speaker 6: Some of this. It's just not expected necessarily to pass. 536 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,640 Speaker 5: As we told you yesterday, Democrats are not on board, 537 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:50,120 Speaker 5: just like they are not on board with a Continuing Resolution. 538 00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,320 Speaker 5: And I'll tell you what, Tyler, as we consider the 539 00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:57,240 Speaker 5: idea here of a CR expiring on the twenty first 540 00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,560 Speaker 5: of November, that's the plan on the table month away 541 00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:04,000 Speaker 5: from today. You've also got November first open enrollment beginning 542 00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:07,000 Speaker 5: and the expiration of SNAP benefits. So maybe it's no 543 00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:11,240 Speaker 5: wonder John Thune suggests a full year CR might be coming, not. 544 00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,200 Speaker 2: Just suggesting a full year CR might be in the pipeline, 545 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 2: but also that maybe it's time for the House to 546 00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 2: come back into session so that they can repass a 547 00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,600 Speaker 2: clean CR that has that end date in place, because, 548 00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:24,760 Speaker 2: as you mentioned, November twenty first is what they're currently 549 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:28,000 Speaker 2: voting on. But we are just taking closer and closer 550 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:30,800 Speaker 2: to that now. We're lucky to be joined now by 551 00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:34,200 Speaker 2: one of those members of Congress who is currently out 552 00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,920 Speaker 2: of session but joins us now from Capitol Hill. That's 553 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:42,680 Speaker 2: Congressman Brian's Style, Republican representing Wisconsin's first district. Congressman, it's 554 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,080 Speaker 2: good to see you, and thanks so much for joining. 555 00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:48,480 Speaker 2: I've loved your opinion on this. The Senate majority leader 556 00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 2: suggesting it's time for the House to come back into session, 557 00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:52,400 Speaker 2: do you think that's. 558 00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:52,840 Speaker 6: A good idea. 559 00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,160 Speaker 12: Well, it's time for the Senate to pass the clean 560 00:29:56,280 --> 00:30:00,320 Speaker 12: cr We're in this situation because the Senate Demo credit 561 00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:04,080 Speaker 12: leadership under Chuck Schumer refuses to vote for a clean CR. 562 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,239 Speaker 12: This used to be a non controversial vote here on 563 00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,480 Speaker 12: Capitol Hill. In fact, Democrats have voted time and again 564 00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:14,000 Speaker 12: in favor of clean crs, most recently in the spring. 565 00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:17,640 Speaker 12: What changed is the politics for Democrats in the United 566 00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,320 Speaker 12: States Senate. So the House has done our job, We're 567 00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:23,360 Speaker 12: all waiting for the Senate to do their job. Chuck 568 00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:25,880 Speaker 12: Schumer is beholden to his radical base. A lot of 569 00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:28,239 Speaker 12: us are frustrated. It's time for us to move on 570 00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:32,040 Speaker 12: because there's really important negotiations in front of us, including 571 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 12: fiscally your twenty six appropriations, as well as other prior 572 00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:38,640 Speaker 12: policy priorities that you mentioned Congress. 573 00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:39,360 Speaker 6: But it's good to see it. 574 00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:42,520 Speaker 5: Kevin Hassett had suggested yesterday, maybe there's capitulation this week 575 00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:44,720 Speaker 5: and this whole thing comes to an end. But every 576 00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,600 Speaker 5: time the Senate votes on this, it's the same two 577 00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:50,880 Speaker 5: Democrats an independent who break ranks here. So I mean 578 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,240 Speaker 5: at some point we could be bumping up against November 579 00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:54,920 Speaker 5: twenty first, what do we do? 580 00:30:54,960 --> 00:30:55,080 Speaker 10: Then? 581 00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:57,520 Speaker 5: Do you wait forever for Senate Democrats? We just stay 582 00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,160 Speaker 5: shut down until Chucks Numer changes his tune. 583 00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:06,000 Speaker 12: Well, the consequences of the Schumer shutdown continue to build. 584 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:10,160 Speaker 12: President Trump has done a great job taking some extraordinary 585 00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:13,720 Speaker 12: actions to make sure that the consequences aren't felt by 586 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:16,560 Speaker 12: our troops, for example, But many of these are one 587 00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:19,720 Speaker 12: time actions, and so the consequences will continue to build. 588 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,360 Speaker 12: The pressure will build, and I do believe at some 589 00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:25,280 Speaker 12: point the Senate will come to the table and recognize 590 00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:28,240 Speaker 12: that their action to close the federal government and put 591 00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 12: at risk, for example, payment to our troops, the men 592 00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,520 Speaker 12: and women wearing the United States military uniform, was the 593 00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:37,520 Speaker 12: wrong bet. The sooner we come out of the shutdown, 594 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:41,880 Speaker 12: and begin the substantive negotiations on fiscal year twenty six approaches, 595 00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,040 Speaker 12: as well as other policy priorities. 596 00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:44,920 Speaker 4: The better off we are. 597 00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:48,640 Speaker 2: Well, the White House has come to the table on 598 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:51,520 Speaker 2: some of these really critical issues, like military pay, pay 599 00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:55,200 Speaker 2: for the Coastguard, also finding that supplementary funding for that 600 00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:59,280 Speaker 2: key federal nutrition assistance program that helps women and children. 601 00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:02,400 Speaker 2: Butres we hear from Democrats that they want President Trump 602 00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:04,640 Speaker 2: to come to the negotiating table when it comes to 603 00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:08,400 Speaker 2: the policy stances at stake here, particularly related to healthcare. 604 00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:11,640 Speaker 2: We know he had this luncheon today with Senate Republicans, 605 00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:13,880 Speaker 2: but do you think President Trump should be getting more 606 00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,040 Speaker 2: involved as this shutdown drags on? 607 00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:19,800 Speaker 12: Well, I think again, the challenge here is we put 608 00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:22,680 Speaker 12: forward a clean CR now. As you noted weeks ago 609 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:26,080 Speaker 12: passed in the House, we're three weeks into a shutdown. 610 00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:29,840 Speaker 12: We should be three weeks into the CR utilizing the 611 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:33,880 Speaker 12: time that we're burning right now to negotiate those policy priorities. 612 00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:38,240 Speaker 12: Many of these have year end deadlines, appropriate conversations for 613 00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,160 Speaker 12: us to be having, but we should be doing that 614 00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:43,480 Speaker 12: in the context of an open and operational government. Again, 615 00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:46,720 Speaker 12: the House did our job the Senate is running into 616 00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,600 Speaker 12: filibuster challenges. Center Fetterman is even calling now and saying, 617 00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,600 Speaker 12: maybe we have to overcome that because a minority of 618 00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 12: United States Senators are standing in the way, under the 619 00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:58,880 Speaker 12: leadership of Chuck Schumer, from reopening the federal government. 620 00:33:00,560 --> 00:33:04,000 Speaker 5: You've seen what's going on with the premiums here, Congressmen, 621 00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:07,120 Speaker 5: and I know that you're careful not to conflate this 622 00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:10,040 Speaker 5: debate with that of government funding. 623 00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:12,760 Speaker 6: But we saw a couple of states this morning. 624 00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:15,760 Speaker 5: In Georgia, where I know Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Green has 625 00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:19,240 Speaker 5: been making some noise here, Obamacare premiums could rise as 626 00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:23,400 Speaker 5: much as four times. They could quadruple in Maine plans 627 00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:25,560 Speaker 5: we'll see premiums up and average of twenty four percent 628 00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:29,680 Speaker 5: in Michigan could surpass eighteen percent, and that's before factoring 629 00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:34,440 Speaker 5: in the expiration. What would it mean for people looking 630 00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:36,400 Speaker 5: at their subsidies rise in Wisconsin. 631 00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,320 Speaker 12: Well, I think what we see as the data continues 632 00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:43,120 Speaker 12: to come in that the Affordable Care Act was anything 633 00:33:43,200 --> 00:33:47,040 Speaker 12: but affordable for the American people. The program the Democrats 634 00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:51,200 Speaker 12: put in place. Again, the Democrats set the sunset date themselves. 635 00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:53,960 Speaker 12: This was a Democrat decision to sunset it at the 636 00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:57,200 Speaker 12: end of the year. But what we continue to see 637 00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,280 Speaker 12: is challenges inside the structure of the program. There is 638 00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:03,240 Speaker 12: plenty of evidence of the waste, fraud, and abuse inside 639 00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,400 Speaker 12: this Democrat created program. There's a Treasury report that came 640 00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:11,600 Speaker 12: out under President Biden that identifies as significant flaws inside 641 00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:15,239 Speaker 12: these premium credits that go back to insurance companies as 642 00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:18,400 Speaker 12: to why it's structurally unsound. So at an absolute minimum, 643 00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:21,040 Speaker 12: we would need to make meaningful and substantive reform in 644 00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,680 Speaker 12: the program. But again, these are the conversations in the 645 00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:27,120 Speaker 12: debates that we should be having right now on Capitol Hill. Instead, 646 00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:30,440 Speaker 12: we're shut down all because Chuck Schumer and Democrats in 647 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,920 Speaker 12: the Senate refused to open the government with a clean 648 00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:36,000 Speaker 12: cr to allow these negotiations and debates to take place. 649 00:34:37,440 --> 00:34:40,160 Speaker 2: Well, Congressman Joe just outlined one of the potential impacts 650 00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:44,000 Speaker 2: for constituents. Another has to do with economic assistance for farmers. 651 00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:47,960 Speaker 2: A senior Administration official tells me that's currently been delayed 652 00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:50,640 Speaker 2: because of this ongoing shut down. 653 00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:51,560 Speaker 4: I looked up the stats. 654 00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:55,520 Speaker 2: The USDA estimates Wisconsin farmers produced one point three billion 655 00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:58,399 Speaker 2: dollars worth of soybeans each year. This is, of course 656 00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:01,400 Speaker 2: at the center of this issue. US China hasn't imported 657 00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:04,280 Speaker 2: any US soybean so far this harvest season. I'm wondering 658 00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:07,400 Speaker 2: if you're in any discussions with the Administration on what 659 00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,319 Speaker 2: this aid package might look like. Are they talking with 660 00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:12,839 Speaker 2: Congress on this and any update on when it could 661 00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:13,399 Speaker 2: be ruled out. 662 00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:17,120 Speaker 12: I had a long conversation with two soybean farmers from 663 00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:20,960 Speaker 12: Wisconsin yesterday talking about this exact challenge. The short term 664 00:35:21,000 --> 00:35:23,360 Speaker 12: fix may be that type of a subsidy, but the 665 00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:26,160 Speaker 12: long term fix is getting trade agreements in place and 666 00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:30,680 Speaker 12: having China once again purchasing US soy The US soy 667 00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:33,920 Speaker 12: exports are heavily dependent on the Chinese markets. The broader 668 00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:37,360 Speaker 12: trade negotiations that we're having is causing concern. I'm of 669 00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:39,480 Speaker 12: the view that we have a huge opportunity here to 670 00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:43,000 Speaker 12: work with our allies, hold China accountable, and then strike 671 00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,480 Speaker 12: the trade deal. I think President Trump's in a position 672 00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:48,640 Speaker 12: to do that. The short term fix may be providing 673 00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:51,640 Speaker 12: some level of assistance. The long term fix is striking 674 00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:55,080 Speaker 12: these trade agreements to the benefit of American workers and farmers. 675 00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:59,600 Speaker 5: Congressman we appreciate the insights as always, that's Brian's style, 676 00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:03,960 Speaker 5: republic and Congressman from Wisconsin who chairs the House Admin Committee, 677 00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:05,600 Speaker 5: and always a pleasure to have the chairman with us 678 00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:08,040 Speaker 5: as part of our conversation here on Bloomberg. 679 00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:10,600 Speaker 6: Tyler, there's more breaking news. You mentioned it very quickly. 680 00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:11,680 Speaker 6: We're learning more. 681 00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:16,719 Speaker 5: About tungsten than some of us have ever known. When 682 00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:21,239 Speaker 5: we start talking about rare earths and rare minerals that 683 00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:24,720 Speaker 5: are used, in this case in the manufacturing of defense 684 00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:28,160 Speaker 5: equipment and other critical technologies. This is a big one. 685 00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,800 Speaker 5: A chemical element. If I bring you back to chemistry class, 686 00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:33,799 Speaker 5: it has the symbol W. It's atomic number is seventy four, 687 00:36:34,000 --> 00:36:38,440 Speaker 5: and it has the highest melting point of all known elements, 688 00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:40,839 Speaker 5: which is why, Tyler, this is one of the most 689 00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:44,600 Speaker 5: sought after ingredients for weapons manufacturing, especially when it comes 690 00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:45,800 Speaker 5: to building rockets. 691 00:36:46,040 --> 00:36:49,560 Speaker 2: Right exactly, And this headline appears to be underscoring the 692 00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:54,120 Speaker 2: administration's push to try to bolster its own supply and 693 00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:57,400 Speaker 2: position in the critical and rare earth market to really 694 00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:01,319 Speaker 2: compete with China ahead of this really important needing next 695 00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:03,840 Speaker 2: week between President Trump and Chinese President Jijingpang. 696 00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:04,839 Speaker 6: Yeah, that's right. Joe. 697 00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,600 Speaker 5: Doe is writing about this right now on the Breaker, 698 00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:10,200 Speaker 5: and I hope that Joe doesn't mind us interrupting his 699 00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:15,000 Speaker 5: coverage here in the clutch Bloomberg News Economic state Craft reporter. 700 00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:16,239 Speaker 6: Joe, it's great to have you. 701 00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:18,800 Speaker 5: This is a big one, of course, as we remind 702 00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:20,680 Speaker 5: ourselves that all roads lead to China. 703 00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:23,279 Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, in a lot of ways. 704 00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:28,760 Speaker 13: It's just another thing that really kind of emphasizes this 705 00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:31,360 Speaker 13: this ongoing trade war between the United States and China, 706 00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:35,280 Speaker 13: which we have seen escalated now in recent weeks. Tungsten 707 00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:38,239 Speaker 13: is just another one of those critical minerals that the 708 00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:42,360 Speaker 13: Defense Department needs more of and that the US has said, listen, 709 00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:48,160 Speaker 13: we need to wean our needs off of China specific. 710 00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:52,839 Speaker 2: Joe, let's connect to the dots here and look at 711 00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:56,040 Speaker 2: the broader picture. Yesterday, the US and Australia inking this 712 00:37:56,200 --> 00:38:00,120 Speaker 2: eight point five billion dollar cooperation agreement when it comes 713 00:37:59,960 --> 00:38:03,160 Speaker 2: to critical minerals. Does this mark perhaps a new era 714 00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:05,960 Speaker 2: for the administration as it is looking at supply chains, 715 00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,280 Speaker 2: because up to this point we've really seen them focus 716 00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:12,040 Speaker 2: on domestic projects. Right, I'm thinking of MP materials, trilogy, 717 00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:16,000 Speaker 2: trilogy medals, things like that, but now it looks like 718 00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:17,360 Speaker 2: we're kind of pointing outward. 719 00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:19,160 Speaker 13: Yeah, I think you know, this is one of the 720 00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:21,680 Speaker 13: things we had been talking about recently, which is what 721 00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:24,160 Speaker 13: we had reported at the end of September that there 722 00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:27,719 Speaker 13: were a group of mining companies from Australia in the 723 00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:30,320 Speaker 13: US in d C in the middle of September and 724 00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:33,040 Speaker 13: they were talking to senior Trump administration officials who had 725 00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:35,759 Speaker 13: been saying, look, we're looking for warrants in companies, We're 726 00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:38,760 Speaker 13: looking for off take agreements and when you can bringing 727 00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:41,400 Speaker 13: your processing or production here to the United States. And 728 00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:43,000 Speaker 13: one of the things that we noted when we had 729 00:38:43,040 --> 00:38:46,200 Speaker 13: that scoop was this is a very serious indication that 730 00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:50,040 Speaker 13: the administration is looking at foreign companies. And the scoup 731 00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,919 Speaker 13: that we have out now with Tungsten says that Howard 732 00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:58,600 Speaker 13: Latnick himself has been facilitating talks with the US private 733 00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:04,359 Speaker 13: company and the Sovereign Wealth Fund of Kazakhstan. Again, so 734 00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:09,000 Speaker 13: that's another non US based deposit, and it's showing that 735 00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:11,760 Speaker 13: maybe the Trump administration, when that comes to these critical minerals, 736 00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:15,080 Speaker 13: supply chain, permanent magnets, everything else, are saying, you know, 737 00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:19,000 Speaker 13: what near shoring might be an important aspect of this 738 00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:21,120 Speaker 13: whole thing. We can't just do it all here. 739 00:39:23,480 --> 00:39:26,360 Speaker 5: We've been seeing a pretty interesting turn in some of 740 00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:30,680 Speaker 5: the companies that Tyler mentioned, whether it's MP or some 741 00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:32,960 Speaker 5: of the others that have been on an absolute tear 742 00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:36,799 Speaker 5: most recently. In fact, MP Materials was up over four 743 00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:40,640 Speaker 5: hundred percent year to date shares of other rare earth 744 00:39:40,640 --> 00:39:43,359 Speaker 5: companies USA, Rare Earth, Ramicos some of the Are these 745 00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:44,840 Speaker 5: the new meme stocks, Joe. 746 00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:50,560 Speaker 13: That's a concern, that's a real concern. There was a 747 00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:52,600 Speaker 13: note out earlier this week from I believe it was 748 00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:55,799 Speaker 13: one of the big banks saying, you know, there is 749 00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:57,759 Speaker 13: a concern that some of this becomes a bit of 750 00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:00,759 Speaker 13: a meme stock situation. You have you have the quote 751 00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:04,759 Speaker 13: unquote good companies, right, the ones with serious with substantial 752 00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:09,359 Speaker 13: balance sheets, that have serious operations or deposits that are 753 00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:12,560 Speaker 13: more than deposits, right like actual mining activity. And then 754 00:40:12,600 --> 00:40:15,720 Speaker 13: you've got a lot of others who are exploration companies 755 00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,040 Speaker 13: and junior miners. I mean that's a space that I 756 00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:20,520 Speaker 13: covered for ten years at Blomberg, and typically if you're 757 00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:23,200 Speaker 13: a exploration or junior miner, that's not like you were 758 00:40:23,200 --> 00:40:24,879 Speaker 13: sitting down writing a big story about them. 759 00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:25,120 Speaker 4: Right. 760 00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:27,319 Speaker 13: It was these guys would go to conferences and show 761 00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:30,759 Speaker 13: you something called core samples, which were just long cylindrical 762 00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:33,680 Speaker 13: things sitting on a table of literal earth that they 763 00:40:33,680 --> 00:40:36,040 Speaker 13: had shot down into the ground, grabbed up and showed, hey, 764 00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,000 Speaker 13: look at all the veins that are in here. I mean, 765 00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:39,640 Speaker 13: these are the kind of companies that we could be 766 00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:42,080 Speaker 13: talking about. And that is a concern in all of this. 767 00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:45,080 Speaker 13: Despite the fact that we need these minerals, despite the 768 00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:48,200 Speaker 13: fact that the administration is putting effort into bringing onshore 769 00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:50,879 Speaker 13: supply chain of it, you do have to wonder which 770 00:40:50,920 --> 00:40:52,800 Speaker 13: of these will actually materialize. 771 00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:56,000 Speaker 2: All right, And Joe, I'm going to pull one line 772 00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:58,920 Speaker 2: from your reporting that Trump administration is not currently seeking 773 00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:02,719 Speaker 2: an equity stake in this venture, according to US officials. Joe, 774 00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:05,840 Speaker 2: Doe Bloomberg News is Economic Statecraft reporter. Thank you so 775 00:41:05,960 --> 00:41:09,400 Speaker 2: much and quite the incredible scoop, Joe, especially on this 776 00:41:09,600 --> 00:41:12,160 Speaker 2: news that we are gearing up for this big, high 777 00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:15,520 Speaker 2: stakes meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Jiji Conray 778 00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:18,960 Speaker 2: Tungsten letter, w I've learned that you love learn a 779 00:41:19,000 --> 00:41:20,319 Speaker 2: lot today about chemistry report. 780 00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:23,080 Speaker 5: Yeah, well, I'm learning as I go here. Thanks for 781 00:41:23,120 --> 00:41:26,200 Speaker 5: listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to 782 00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:29,400 Speaker 5: subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever 783 00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:32,040 Speaker 5: you get your podcasts, and you can find us live 784 00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:35,880 Speaker 5: every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg 785 00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:36,600 Speaker 5: dot com.