Speaker 1: Hello friends, and welcome in. I'm Chris Welsh, and today
Speaker 1: here in Fantasy Pros, we're going to be talking about
Speaker 1: the top ten biggest bus in Fantasy I don't want
Speaker 1: to be a hater, and even these players I'm gonna
Speaker 1: give you obviously have got some reason to still draft them,
Speaker 1: but there's concerns underlying stats, injury worries galore, and the ADP. Overall,
Speaker 1: it's a little bit dicey. So don't hate me, but
Speaker 1: I got ten bus that you're gonna need to pay
Speaker 1: attention to in your drafts if you want to get
Speaker 1: it right. If you also want to get it right,
Speaker 1: make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel below, make
Speaker 1: a comment, and if you listen in this video, we're
Speaker 1: going to tell you why and how you're gonna be
Speaker 1: able to get a little win just by making a comment. So,
Speaker 1: my friends, let's get to it. It's the top ten
Speaker 1: biggest bus in fantasy baseball this year. Coming in at
Speaker 1: number ten is Dansby Swanson, shortstop for the Chicago Cubs.
Speaker 1: Cubs fans, don't hate me, but I'm gonna pick on
Speaker 1: your newest acquisition. Swanson's coming off a great year in
Speaker 1: Atlanta and a lot of fantasy value, though was propped
Speaker 1: up by those stolen bases with a significant uptick and
Speaker 1: runs in RBI, But now he's off to Chicago with
Speaker 1: what you would probably easily say is a worse offense.
Speaker 1: The bat Projection system has him losing eighteen runs and
Speaker 1: five stolen bases. Swanson that he's serviceable two to seventy
Speaker 1: seven batting average, but an expected batting average of two
Speaker 1: point fifty seven. This while also running a high babbub
Speaker 1: of three forty eight, which was the third highest of
Speaker 1: his career. Fun fact, anytime his babeb was under three
Speaker 1: p forty eight, his average would sink. This doesn't mean
Speaker 1: he's not going to be valuable, but where he's going
Speaker 1: in drafts is pretty high. Fantasy prose ADP shows dance
Speaker 1: By Swanson going at seventy five overall and even as
Speaker 1: high as seventy two overall on CBS. Maybe he is
Speaker 1: the end of a tier of good shortstops, but there
Speaker 1: are quite a few other players that could be drafted
Speaker 1: behind him, Wander Franco, Tommy Edmund, Andres Jimenez. Dance By
Speaker 1: Swanson can still be a good fantasy contributor, but at
Speaker 1: the cost and the downturn in his potential, I'm confident
Speaker 1: in calling him a bust. Coming in at number nine
Speaker 1: is Tyler O'Neil, outfielder for the Saint Louis Cardinals. There's
Speaker 1: pretty much only two outcomes that are going to happen
Speaker 1: with this. I'm going to be one hundred percent right
Speaker 1: or egg on my face. He only had fourteen homers,
Speaker 1: fourteen stolen bases, and he was in the fifties on
Speaker 1: runs in RBI. Now most projection systems see him having
Speaker 1: quite a rebound, but he's in a little bit of
Speaker 1: a fight for his job in spring training. As a
Speaker 1: matter of fact, they moved him in a fight with
Speaker 1: Dylan Carlson for center field. O'Neil last year was in
Speaker 1: the bottom sixteenth percentile in the league and strikeout rate
Speaker 1: WIF rate was in the bottom twelve percentile in the league.
Speaker 1: And by the way, his hard hit percentage tanked went
Speaker 1: from fifty two percent in twenty twenty one down to
Speaker 1: forty three percent this past year. Exit velocities max average lower.
Speaker 1: He just made a lot worse contact, and he did
Speaker 1: a lot of his damage off of fastballs. He could
Speaker 1: not hit breaking balls or off speed pitches. He's a
Speaker 1: physical freak, and that's why I say, if he's right,
Speaker 1: gotta be wrong because he's going to steal bases, gonna
Speaker 1: hit big homers. But the problem is that consistent contact
Speaker 1: is a major question. A lot of people are giving
Speaker 1: him passes over all of this, especially projection systems. But
Speaker 1: I'm not going to when we go look at adp
Speaker 1: at one oh one, he's going out head of Suzuki,
Speaker 1: Christian Yelich, Jake McCarthy, even Taylor Ward. I'm gonna pass.
Speaker 1: Let somebody else be right or wrong on Tyler O'Neill.
Speaker 1: It's not gonna be me. Let me ask you something,
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Speaker 1: Coming in at number eight is Kansas City Royals relief
Speaker 1: pitchers Scott Barlow. This one actually isn't about the quality
Speaker 1: of the player. It's more about the situation and the
Speaker 1: price that you're paying for relief pitchers. The Kansas City
Speaker 1: Royals brought in a role as Chapman. No. Chapman has
Speaker 1: some of his own concerns about getting gigs, but it's
Speaker 1: hard to believe that, based on the options that he
Speaker 1: had in free agency, that he would be coming to
Speaker 1: the Royals to not close. Why would you pick the Royals.
Speaker 1: It's because you've got a closing gig at least, so
Speaker 1: I assume he's going to be given the opportunity to close.
Speaker 1: Where Scott Barlow is a very very good reliever, but
Speaker 1: he might be used in some of those higher leverage
Speaker 1: situations in the eighth inning, maybe even getting some saves.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying he won't get saves, but even projections
Speaker 1: at this point are saying that the best option right
Speaker 1: now is twenty saves. That's according to the BAT drafting
Speaker 1: closers without assurances are a little bit of a problem,
Speaker 1: and you may want to take closers that have guarantees
Speaker 1: early on. I think this is a recipe for a bust,
Speaker 1: especially when you're talking about Scott Barlow going inside the
Speaker 1: top one fifty. I'm going to pass and say no thanks,
Speaker 1: and the people that draft him in the top one fifty,
Speaker 1: they're gonna feel it. That's a bust. Number seven Milwaukee
Speaker 1: Brewers starting pitcher Freddie Peralta. He's always enticing. We know
Speaker 1: the strikeout numbers, but fel To under ten k per nine,
Speaker 1: walks over three per nine, hit a three five ERA
Speaker 1: with an x FIP that was around the three to
Speaker 1: six range. If you're digging deeper. His sierra was also
Speaker 1: in the relative same range. All of these things aside.
Speaker 1: Freddy Pearlta obviously has some electric stuff with big strike
Speaker 1: up potential we've seen in the past, but he is
Speaker 1: injury prone. Plagued, doesn't really matter. Paralta just never pitches.
Speaker 1: He hasn't pitched more than one hundred and forty four
Speaker 1: innings in a season, and he has five of them
Speaker 1: under his belt. As a matter of fact, he's only
Speaker 1: pitched one hundred in one season. Look at the pitchers
Speaker 1: that are going below him. Jesus Lozardo Joe Ryan, Dustin May,
Speaker 1: Lucas Giolito on the bounce back, Chris Sale. All of
Speaker 1: those are smashing yeses for me over Paralta right now,
Speaker 1: because unfortunately he's frail and at the end of the
Speaker 1: day he might be one injury away from hitting the bullpen.
Speaker 1: Though he might not be the most expensive player, we
Speaker 1: are going to label him a bust. Number six is
Speaker 1: Luis Robert, outfielder for the Chicago White Sox who has
Speaker 1: never played one hundred games in a season. That's right, obviously,
Speaker 1: Luise Robert is wildly talented player who's lowered to strike
Speaker 1: up percentage all three seasons of his career. He has
Speaker 1: a three hundred season under his belt, which is nice.
Speaker 1: He's hit over two eighty twice, He's stole in some bases,
Speaker 1: he's hitting homers, but he does not stay healthy. Even
Speaker 1: when healthy, the numbers still don't add up. If you
Speaker 1: want to look at the projections for a minute, Let's
Speaker 1: move over to ATC, which has an aggregate system of
Speaker 1: all the different projections. In one hundred and twenty six games,
Speaker 1: the projection is twenty homers, fifteen stolen bases with a
Speaker 1: solid batting average. That's his best case scenario with Luis Robert.
Speaker 1: We don't have anything for us that can say that
Speaker 1: Luis Roberts best case scenario is one hundred and fifty games.
Speaker 1: Because we don't get there. You're paying a top fifty costs.
Speaker 1: If he played one hundred and fifty games. Okay, great,
Speaker 1: but he's going like six spots below Randy or ros Arena,
Speaker 1: who has two twenty twenty seasons under his belt. He's
Speaker 1: going above Cedric Mullins, Jazz Chisholm, who moved to the outfield.
Speaker 1: No thanks, no thanks, Luise Robert. He's fun, but the
Speaker 1: numbers do not add up. Before we get to my
Speaker 1: top five biggest bus for twenty twenty three. Want to
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Speaker 1: slash premium and start playing smarter, not harder. Now let's
Speaker 1: get to the top five. Coming in at number five
Speaker 1: is Stephen Kwan, outfielder for the Guardians. What you're doing
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three is you are chasing Stephen Kwan's
Speaker 1: stolen bases from twenty twenty two, still nineteen. Fun fact,
Speaker 1: he's still twenty over his entire minor league career leading
Speaker 1: up to this. Now that's not to say that it
Speaker 1: cannot continue. It just seems unlikely that it'll continue. And
Speaker 1: let's say it does. Even he's still an empty homer
Speaker 1: and asset he provides no homers, so at best that
Speaker 1: also includes RBI. At best, he's a three category player.
Speaker 1: Are those runs elite? No, they're not. So now we're
Speaker 1: looking at maybe a two elite category player with the
Speaker 1: idea that those stolen bases do continue. Does that equate
Speaker 1: to the price. I don't think so. Bat X says
Speaker 1: those stolen bases are going to be at thirteen. It's
Speaker 1: hard to imagine six homers, thirteen stolen bases with a
Speaker 1: solid average, low runs in RBI being worth close to
Speaker 1: top one fifty, yet he's going right around one hundred.
Speaker 1: He's a great real life player, but not as good
Speaker 1: of a fantasy player. He is a bust. Coming at
Speaker 1: number four is brave starting pitcher Kyle Wright. What he
Speaker 1: did last year for fantasy was phenomenal getting where he
Speaker 1: got him probably was a league winner, especially when you
Speaker 1: get twenty one wins. But last year you got him
Speaker 1: for free. This year right outside the top one hundred.
Speaker 1: Here's something I'm gonna promise you, Kyle Wright will not
Speaker 1: win twenty one games this year, and so much of
Speaker 1: his fantasy value was attached to those wins. He had
Speaker 1: a solid RA three nineteen, but he had an expected
Speaker 1: ERA that was closer to four. It was three eight nine.
Speaker 1: You're paying for last year's price, and if you look
Speaker 1: at the ADPs like we've done, you've got Clayton Kershaw,
Speaker 1: Blake Snell, George Kirby all going after Kyle Wright on
Speaker 1: overall ADP. Thanks, but no thanks. I'm going to pass
Speaker 1: on trying to buy the wins again for Kyle Wright.
Speaker 1: Coming in at number three is Carlos Korea, shortstop for
Speaker 1: the Minnesota Twins. Hey third times a charm you know,
Speaker 1: like finding a team, signing a contract, getting a physical
Speaker 1: to actually go through, and he comes in at number three.
Speaker 1: I always liked his game in general, but kind of
Speaker 1: like we've talked about with a few other of these,
Speaker 1: there are injury worries. Two teams could not pass him
Speaker 1: on a physical after signing him to a massive contract.
Speaker 1: That is a giant red flag. Plus the numbers don't
Speaker 1: ever really quite twenty two Homers at shortstop is okay,
Speaker 1: runs an RBI not that great. He's only had really
Speaker 1: one good year with those running RBI and I was
Speaker 1: in Houston in twenty twenty one. Shortstop also might be
Speaker 1: the deepest position, though I do believe there are some
Speaker 1: red flags over it actually is telling me to tell
Speaker 1: you take the shortstops that are higher. One thing that
Speaker 1: jumps out to me for this is taking shortstop higher
Speaker 1: with less of the risk. There's a reason some of
Speaker 1: these guys are back here and as tempting is Carlo's Korea.
Speaker 1: Is one thing I am trying to avoid at all
Speaker 1: costs is taking players at the front end of my
Speaker 1: draft this year that already have injury concerns. Maybe he's
Speaker 1: playing in spring training, but two team doctors had major
Speaker 1: concerns about him. I'm going to have the same thing. Unfortunately,
Speaker 1: Carlos Korea is bus number three. Coming in at number
Speaker 1: two is another shortstop. Tim Anderson shortstop for the Chicago
Speaker 1: White Sox. When he is out there, he's a fantasy
Speaker 1: asset when he's out there. Twenty twenty one, he had
Speaker 1: seventeen homers, eighteen stolen pass. The next full season before that,
Speaker 1: which was twenty nineteen, eighteen homers, seventeen stolen bases. That's okay,
Speaker 1: you know it's stunk. One hundred and twenty three games.
Speaker 1: Eighteen was the last time he had a full season.
Speaker 1: It's been four years since he's played over one hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty three games. Yes he can steal, Yes he
Speaker 1: can hit. The batting average is really solid. He's just
Speaker 1: not out there and that is my main problem with
Speaker 1: him overall. Plus, the Fantasy Pro's ADP shows a little
Speaker 1: bit of a lower number. I believe in the eighties
Speaker 1: to nineties, but if you take ESPN off of that,
Speaker 1: you see him going in the seventies in multiple different markets.
Speaker 1: That's a major concern for a major injury liability that
Speaker 1: people are jumping in on. I can find a home
Speaker 1: for Tim Anderson, but what I can't do is find
Speaker 1: it at shortstop. I would like Tim Anderson to be
Speaker 1: more of a middle reliever because there's a lot of
Speaker 1: inherent injury risk. And what a player like Carlos career
Speaker 1: Tim Anderson actually do for you is they change from
Speaker 1: your draft strategy where you can't take them if you
Speaker 1: take an injury risk, or you just have to be
Speaker 1: aware of it overall. So as funnest Tim Anderson can be,
Speaker 1: I think he's more of a crutch for a lot
Speaker 1: of people that don't take the corea as say, oh,
Speaker 1: I'll get Tim Anderson, it'll be good for maybe one
Speaker 1: hundred games in it. Number one is Lance McCuller, starting
Speaker 1: pitcher for the Houston Astros. We haven't talked about a
Speaker 1: lot of the obvious names here. I tried to go
Speaker 1: a little bit deeper and bigger. If Joe we're here,
Speaker 1: you'd have heard bust In and de Grom. But Lance
Speaker 1: McCullers might be one of the scariest fantasy players overall,
Speaker 1: because we always talk ourselves into it. We already have
Speaker 1: information that he is not going to be able to
Speaker 1: break camp with the team and play an opening day.
Speaker 1: There can be exciting stuff, but the walks have gone up,
Speaker 1: the strikeouts have gone down. Mcculler's had a career best
Speaker 1: two twenty seven ERA this past year, but an x
Speaker 1: FIP of three fifty eight. That's quite a big jump.
Speaker 1: This one might not seem as obvious to a lot
Speaker 1: of people, but this one was to me. I feel
Speaker 1: like this is the one I least went out on
Speaker 1: a limb on to tell you that Lance McCullers is
Speaker 1: a bust because you're still paying a decently high capital
Speaker 1: for him. When people are trying to get starting pitchers,
Speaker 1: he's already hurt. A lot of people are staring at
Speaker 1: Jacob deGrom is the biggest concern, but to me, Lance
Speaker 1: mccullors is the biggest bust the twenty twenty three season.
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