WEBVTT - Top 10 Busts: Do Not Draft These Overvalued Players

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<v Speaker 1>Hello friends, and welcome in. I'm Chris Welsh, and today

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<v Speaker 1>here in Fantasy Pros, we're going to be talking about

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<v Speaker 1>the top ten biggest bus in Fantasy I don't want

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<v Speaker 1>to be a hater, and even these players I'm gonna

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<v Speaker 1>give you obviously have got some reason to still draft them,

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<v Speaker 1>but there's concerns underlying stats, injury worries galore, and the ADP. Overall,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a little bit dicey. So don't hate me, but

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<v Speaker 1>I got ten bus that you're gonna need to pay

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<v Speaker 1>attention to in your drafts if you want to get

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<v Speaker 1>it right. If you also want to get it right,

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<v Speaker 1>make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel below, make

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<v Speaker 1>a comment, and if you listen in this video, we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to tell you why and how you're gonna be

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<v Speaker 1>able to get a little win just by making a comment. So,

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<v Speaker 1>my friends, let's get to it. It's the top ten

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<v Speaker 1>biggest bus in fantasy baseball this year. Coming in at

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<v Speaker 1>number ten is Dansby Swanson, shortstop for the Chicago Cubs.

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<v Speaker 1>Cubs fans, don't hate me, but I'm gonna pick on

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<v Speaker 1>your newest acquisition. Swanson's coming off a great year in

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<v Speaker 1>Atlanta and a lot of fantasy value, though was propped

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<v Speaker 1>up by those stolen bases with a significant uptick and

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<v Speaker 1>runs in RBI, But now he's off to Chicago with

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<v Speaker 1>what you would probably easily say is a worse offense.

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<v Speaker 1>The bat Projection system has him losing eighteen runs and

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<v Speaker 1>five stolen bases. Swanson that he's serviceable two to seventy

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<v Speaker 1>seven batting average, but an expected batting average of two

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<v Speaker 1>point fifty seven. This while also running a high babbub

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<v Speaker 1>of three forty eight, which was the third highest of

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<v Speaker 1>his career. Fun fact, anytime his babeb was under three

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<v Speaker 1>p forty eight, his average would sink. This doesn't mean

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<v Speaker 1>he's not going to be valuable, but where he's going

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<v Speaker 1>in drafts is pretty high. Fantasy prose ADP shows dance

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<v Speaker 1>By Swanson going at seventy five overall and even as

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<v Speaker 1>high as seventy two overall on CBS. Maybe he is

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<v Speaker 1>the end of a tier of good shortstops, but there

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<v Speaker 1>are quite a few other players that could be drafted

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<v Speaker 1>behind him, Wander Franco, Tommy Edmund, Andres Jimenez. Dance By

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<v Speaker 1>Swanson can still be a good fantasy contributor, but at

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<v Speaker 1>the cost and the downturn in his potential, I'm confident

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<v Speaker 1>in calling him a bust. Coming in at number nine

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<v Speaker 1>is Tyler O'Neil, outfielder for the Saint Louis Cardinals. There's

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<v Speaker 1>pretty much only two outcomes that are going to happen

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<v Speaker 1>with this. I'm going to be one hundred percent right

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<v Speaker 1>or egg on my face. He only had fourteen homers,

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<v Speaker 1>fourteen stolen bases, and he was in the fifties on

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<v Speaker 1>runs in RBI. Now most projection systems see him having

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<v Speaker 1>quite a rebound, but he's in a little bit of

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<v Speaker 1>a fight for his job in spring training. As a

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<v Speaker 1>matter of fact, they moved him in a fight with

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<v Speaker 1>Dylan Carlson for center field. O'Neil last year was in

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<v Speaker 1>the bottom sixteenth percentile in the league and strikeout rate

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<v Speaker 1>WIF rate was in the bottom twelve percentile in the league.

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<v Speaker 1>And by the way, his hard hit percentage tanked went

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<v Speaker 1>from fifty two percent in twenty twenty one down to

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<v Speaker 1>forty three percent this past year. Exit velocities max average lower.

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<v Speaker 1>He just made a lot worse contact, and he did

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of his damage off of fastballs. He could

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<v Speaker 1>not hit breaking balls or off speed pitches. He's a

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<v Speaker 1>physical freak, and that's why I say, if he's right,

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<v Speaker 1>gotta be wrong because he's going to steal bases, gonna

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<v Speaker 1>hit big homers. But the problem is that consistent contact

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<v Speaker 1>is a major question. A lot of people are giving

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<v Speaker 1>him passes over all of this, especially projection systems. But

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not going to when we go look at adp

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<v Speaker 1>at one oh one, he's going out head of Suzuki,

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<v Speaker 1>Christian Yelich, Jake McCarthy, even Taylor Ward. I'm gonna pass.

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<v Speaker 1>Let somebody else be right or wrong on Tyler O'Neill.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not gonna be me. Let me ask you something,

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<v Speaker 1>How would you like to unlock your full fantasy draft

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<v Speaker 1>potential with our cheat sheet creator at fantasypros dot com

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<v Speaker 1>At fantasypros dot com slash Draft Wizard Okay more bus.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming in at number eight is Kansas City Royals relief

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<v Speaker 1>pitchers Scott Barlow. This one actually isn't about the quality

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<v Speaker 1>of the player. It's more about the situation and the

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<v Speaker 1>price that you're paying for relief pitchers. The Kansas City

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<v Speaker 1>Royals brought in a role as Chapman. No. Chapman has

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<v Speaker 1>some of his own concerns about getting gigs, but it's

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<v Speaker 1>hard to believe that, based on the options that he

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<v Speaker 1>had in free agency, that he would be coming to

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<v Speaker 1>the Royals to not close. Why would you pick the Royals.

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<v Speaker 1>It's because you've got a closing gig at least, so

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<v Speaker 1>I assume he's going to be given the opportunity to close.

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<v Speaker 1>Where Scott Barlow is a very very good reliever, but

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<v Speaker 1>he might be used in some of those higher leverage

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<v Speaker 1>situations in the eighth inning, maybe even getting some saves.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not saying he won't get saves, but even projections

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<v Speaker 1>at this point are saying that the best option right

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<v Speaker 1>now is twenty saves. That's according to the BAT drafting

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<v Speaker 1>closers without assurances are a little bit of a problem,

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<v Speaker 1>and you may want to take closers that have guarantees

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<v Speaker 1>early on. I think this is a recipe for a bust,

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<v Speaker 1>especially when you're talking about Scott Barlow going inside the

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<v Speaker 1>top one fifty. I'm going to pass and say no thanks,

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<v Speaker 1>and the people that draft him in the top one fifty,

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<v Speaker 1>they're gonna feel it. That's a bust. Number seven Milwaukee

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<v Speaker 1>Brewers starting pitcher Freddie Peralta. He's always enticing. We know

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<v Speaker 1>the strikeout numbers, but fel To under ten k per nine,

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<v Speaker 1>walks over three per nine, hit a three five ERA

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<v Speaker 1>with an x FIP that was around the three to

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<v Speaker 1>six range. If you're digging deeper. His sierra was also

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<v Speaker 1>in the relative same range. All of these things aside.

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<v Speaker 1>Freddy Pearlta obviously has some electric stuff with big strike

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<v Speaker 1>up potential we've seen in the past, but he is

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<v Speaker 1>injury prone. Plagued, doesn't really matter. Paralta just never pitches.

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<v Speaker 1>He hasn't pitched more than one hundred and forty four

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<v Speaker 1>innings in a season, and he has five of them

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<v Speaker 1>under his belt. As a matter of fact, he's only

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<v Speaker 1>pitched one hundred in one season. Look at the pitchers

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<v Speaker 1>that are going below him. Jesus Lozardo Joe Ryan, Dustin May,

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<v Speaker 1>Lucas Giolito on the bounce back, Chris Sale. All of

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<v Speaker 1>those are smashing yeses for me over Paralta right now,

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<v Speaker 1>because unfortunately he's frail and at the end of the

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<v Speaker 1>day he might be one injury away from hitting the bullpen.

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<v Speaker 1>Though he might not be the most expensive player, we

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<v Speaker 1>are going to label him a bust. Number six is

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<v Speaker 1>Luis Robert, outfielder for the Chicago White Sox who has

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<v Speaker 1>never played one hundred games in a season. That's right, obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>Luise Robert is wildly talented player who's lowered to strike

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<v Speaker 1>up percentage all three seasons of his career. He has

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<v Speaker 1>a three hundred season under his belt, which is nice.

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<v Speaker 1>He's hit over two eighty twice, He's stole in some bases,

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<v Speaker 1>he's hitting homers, but he does not stay healthy. Even

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<v Speaker 1>when healthy, the numbers still don't add up. If you

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<v Speaker 1>want to look at the projections for a minute, Let's

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<v Speaker 1>move over to ATC, which has an aggregate system of

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<v Speaker 1>all the different projections. In one hundred and twenty six games,

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<v Speaker 1>the projection is twenty homers, fifteen stolen bases with a

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<v Speaker 1>solid batting average. That's his best case scenario with Luis Robert.

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<v Speaker 1>We don't have anything for us that can say that

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<v Speaker 1>Luis Roberts best case scenario is one hundred and fifty games.

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<v Speaker 1>Because we don't get there. You're paying a top fifty costs.

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<v Speaker 1>If he played one hundred and fifty games. Okay, great,

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<v Speaker 1>but he's going like six spots below Randy or ros Arena,

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<v Speaker 1>who has two twenty twenty seasons under his belt. He's

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<v Speaker 1>going above Cedric Mullins, Jazz Chisholm, who moved to the outfield.

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<v Speaker 1>No thanks, no thanks, Luise Robert. He's fun, but the

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<v Speaker 1>numbers do not add up. Before we get to my

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<v Speaker 1>top five biggest bus for twenty twenty three. Want to

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<v Speaker 1>win a free one year premium upgrade to everything Fantasy

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<v Speaker 1>Pros has to offer, Well, all you've got to do

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<v Speaker 1>is subscribe to the Fantasy Pros MLB YouTube channel right

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<v Speaker 1>now and comment below on this video and that's it.

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<v Speaker 1>Whether you're looking for custom mock drafts, salary cap draft tools,

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<v Speaker 1>slash premium and start playing smarter, not harder. Now let's

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<v Speaker 1>get to the top five. Coming in at number five

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<v Speaker 1>is Stephen Kwan, outfielder for the Guardians. What you're doing

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty twenty three is you are chasing Stephen Kwan's

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<v Speaker 1>stolen bases from twenty twenty two, still nineteen. Fun fact,

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<v Speaker 1>he's still twenty over his entire minor league career leading

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<v Speaker 1>up to this. Now that's not to say that it

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<v Speaker 1>cannot continue. It just seems unlikely that it'll continue. And

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<v Speaker 1>let's say it does. Even he's still an empty homer

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<v Speaker 1>and asset he provides no homers, so at best that

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<v Speaker 1>also includes RBI. At best, he's a three category player.

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<v Speaker 1>Are those runs elite? No, they're not. So now we're

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<v Speaker 1>looking at maybe a two elite category player with the

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<v Speaker 1>idea that those stolen bases do continue. Does that equate

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<v Speaker 1>to the price. I don't think so. Bat X says

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<v Speaker 1>those stolen bases are going to be at thirteen. It's

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<v Speaker 1>hard to imagine six homers, thirteen stolen bases with a

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<v Speaker 1>solid average, low runs in RBI being worth close to

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<v Speaker 1>top one fifty, yet he's going right around one hundred.

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<v Speaker 1>He's a great real life player, but not as good

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<v Speaker 1>of a fantasy player. He is a bust. Coming at

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<v Speaker 1>number four is brave starting pitcher Kyle Wright. What he

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<v Speaker 1>did last year for fantasy was phenomenal getting where he

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<v Speaker 1>got him probably was a league winner, especially when you

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<v Speaker 1>get twenty one wins. But last year you got him

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<v Speaker 1>for free. This year right outside the top one hundred.

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<v Speaker 1>Here's something I'm gonna promise you, Kyle Wright will not

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<v Speaker 1>win twenty one games this year, and so much of

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<v Speaker 1>his fantasy value was attached to those wins. He had

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<v Speaker 1>a solid RA three nineteen, but he had an expected

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<v Speaker 1>ERA that was closer to four. It was three eight nine.

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<v Speaker 1>You're paying for last year's price, and if you look

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<v Speaker 1>at the ADPs like we've done, you've got Clayton Kershaw,

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<v Speaker 1>Blake Snell, George Kirby all going after Kyle Wright on

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<v Speaker 1>overall ADP. Thanks, but no thanks. I'm going to pass

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<v Speaker 1>on trying to buy the wins again for Kyle Wright.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming in at number three is Carlos Korea, shortstop for

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<v Speaker 1>the Minnesota Twins. Hey third times a charm you know,

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<v Speaker 1>like finding a team, signing a contract, getting a physical

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<v Speaker 1>to actually go through, and he comes in at number three.

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<v Speaker 1>I always liked his game in general, but kind of

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<v Speaker 1>like we've talked about with a few other of these,

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<v Speaker 1>there are injury worries. Two teams could not pass him

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<v Speaker 1>on a physical after signing him to a massive contract.

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<v Speaker 1>That is a giant red flag. Plus the numbers don't

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<v Speaker 1>ever really quite twenty two Homers at shortstop is okay,

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<v Speaker 1>runs an RBI not that great. He's only had really

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<v Speaker 1>one good year with those running RBI and I was

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<v Speaker 1>in Houston in twenty twenty one. Shortstop also might be

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<v Speaker 1>the deepest position, though I do believe there are some

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<v Speaker 1>red flags over it actually is telling me to tell

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<v Speaker 1>you take the shortstops that are higher. One thing that

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<v Speaker 1>jumps out to me for this is taking shortstop higher

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<v Speaker 1>with less of the risk. There's a reason some of

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<v Speaker 1>these guys are back here and as tempting is Carlo's Korea.

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<v Speaker 1>Is one thing I am trying to avoid at all

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<v Speaker 1>costs is taking players at the front end of my

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<v Speaker 1>draft this year that already have injury concerns. Maybe he's

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<v Speaker 1>playing in spring training, but two team doctors had major

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<v Speaker 1>concerns about him. I'm going to have the same thing. Unfortunately,

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<v Speaker 1>Carlos Korea is bus number three. Coming in at number

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<v Speaker 1>two is another shortstop. Tim Anderson shortstop for the Chicago

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<v Speaker 1>White Sox. When he is out there, he's a fantasy

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<v Speaker 1>asset when he's out there. Twenty twenty one, he had

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<v Speaker 1>seventeen homers, eighteen stolen pass. The next full season before that,

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<v Speaker 1>which was twenty nineteen, eighteen homers, seventeen stolen bases. That's okay,

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<v Speaker 1>you know it's stunk. One hundred and twenty three games.

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<v Speaker 1>Eighteen was the last time he had a full season.

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<v Speaker 1>It's been four years since he's played over one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty three games. Yes he can steal, Yes he

0:11:07.400 --> 0:11:10.320
<v Speaker 1>can hit. The batting average is really solid. He's just

0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:13.160
<v Speaker 1>not out there and that is my main problem with

0:11:13.240 --> 0:11:16.720
<v Speaker 1>him overall. Plus, the Fantasy Pro's ADP shows a little

0:11:16.720 --> 0:11:18.520
<v Speaker 1>bit of a lower number. I believe in the eighties

0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:20.679
<v Speaker 1>to nineties, but if you take ESPN off of that,

0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:24.680
<v Speaker 1>you see him going in the seventies in multiple different markets.

0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:29.160
<v Speaker 1>That's a major concern for a major injury liability that

0:11:29.160 --> 0:11:31.760
<v Speaker 1>people are jumping in on. I can find a home

0:11:31.800 --> 0:11:34.000
<v Speaker 1>for Tim Anderson, but what I can't do is find

0:11:34.040 --> 0:11:37.280
<v Speaker 1>it at shortstop. I would like Tim Anderson to be

0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:39.440
<v Speaker 1>more of a middle reliever because there's a lot of

0:11:39.559 --> 0:11:42.880
<v Speaker 1>inherent injury risk. And what a player like Carlos career

0:11:42.920 --> 0:11:45.480
<v Speaker 1>Tim Anderson actually do for you is they change from

0:11:45.520 --> 0:11:47.360
<v Speaker 1>your draft strategy where you can't take them if you

0:11:47.400 --> 0:11:49.080
<v Speaker 1>take an injury risk, or you just have to be

0:11:49.080 --> 0:11:51.800
<v Speaker 1>aware of it overall. So as funnest Tim Anderson can be,

0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:53.760
<v Speaker 1>I think he's more of a crutch for a lot

0:11:53.840 --> 0:11:55.480
<v Speaker 1>of people that don't take the corea as say, oh,

0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:58.120
<v Speaker 1>I'll get Tim Anderson, it'll be good for maybe one

0:11:58.160 --> 0:12:03.880
<v Speaker 1>hundred games in it. Number one is Lance McCuller, starting

0:12:03.920 --> 0:12:06.760
<v Speaker 1>pitcher for the Houston Astros. We haven't talked about a

0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:08.320
<v Speaker 1>lot of the obvious names here. I tried to go

0:12:08.360 --> 0:12:10.280
<v Speaker 1>a little bit deeper and bigger. If Joe we're here,

0:12:10.480 --> 0:12:13.160
<v Speaker 1>you'd have heard bust In and de Grom. But Lance

0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:16.280
<v Speaker 1>McCullers might be one of the scariest fantasy players overall,

0:12:16.320 --> 0:12:19.760
<v Speaker 1>because we always talk ourselves into it. We already have

0:12:19.880 --> 0:12:21.920
<v Speaker 1>information that he is not going to be able to

0:12:21.920 --> 0:12:24.760
<v Speaker 1>break camp with the team and play an opening day.

0:12:25.080 --> 0:12:27.960
<v Speaker 1>There can be exciting stuff, but the walks have gone up,

0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:32.080
<v Speaker 1>the strikeouts have gone down. Mcculler's had a career best

0:12:32.120 --> 0:12:35.160
<v Speaker 1>two twenty seven ERA this past year, but an x

0:12:35.200 --> 0:12:38.760
<v Speaker 1>FIP of three fifty eight. That's quite a big jump.

0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:42.319
<v Speaker 1>This one might not seem as obvious to a lot

0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:44.480
<v Speaker 1>of people, but this one was to me. I feel

0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:46.120
<v Speaker 1>like this is the one I least went out on

0:12:46.160 --> 0:12:49.360
<v Speaker 1>a limb on to tell you that Lance McCullers is

0:12:49.559 --> 0:12:53.600
<v Speaker 1>a bust because you're still paying a decently high capital

0:12:53.679 --> 0:12:56.040
<v Speaker 1>for him. When people are trying to get starting pitchers,

0:12:56.280 --> 0:12:58.440
<v Speaker 1>he's already hurt. A lot of people are staring at

0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:01.200
<v Speaker 1>Jacob deGrom is the biggest concern, but to me, Lance

0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:04.680
<v Speaker 1>mccullors is the biggest bust the twenty twenty three season.

0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:08.720
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Baseball podcast. Follow

0:13:08.800 --> 0:13:12.360
<v Speaker 1>us on Twitter at Fantasy Pros MLB, and subscribe to

0:13:12.400 --> 0:13:16.439
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