1
00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:06,200
Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. It's on target. It

2
00:00:06,320 --> 00:00:07,560
Speaker 1: is good yo.

3
00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:11,640
Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

4
00:00:13,119 --> 00:00:18,079
Speaker 1: Throwing in Joe Spect. We're saying it's a catch touch down,

5
00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:21,600
Speaker 1: and we'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble,

6
00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:26,840
Speaker 1: they go to win. God, that's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

7
00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:27,800
Speaker 1: I like to make money.

8
00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:28,280
Speaker 2: All right.

9
00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:30,720
Speaker 1: This is the ultimate Kaba.

10
00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:35,800
Speaker 2: And we are underway.

11
00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:40,880
Speaker 3: What's up everybody, and welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

12
00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:43,800
Speaker 1: This is your AFC post Draft edition.

13
00:00:44,000 --> 00:00:48,080
Speaker 3: I am your host, Chris Raybaon and I'm joined by

14
00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:49,960
Speaker 3: my dude, Stucky Stuck.

15
00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:51,720
Speaker 1: What's going on? Haven't talked to you in a couple

16
00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:52,040
Speaker 1: of weeks.

17
00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:55,480
Speaker 2: Oh as well, you're a little rusty, you know. We'll

18
00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:58,400
Speaker 2: be back in the flow here before we know it.

19
00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:02,320
Speaker 2: Starting to dive into some football, just kind of scratching

20
00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:06,759
Speaker 2: the surface. But have been furiously updating NFL stuff since

21
00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:08,680
Speaker 2: schedules came out, which is while we're doing this pod.

22
00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:11,680
Speaker 2: The draft has happened. There's some trades that we'll talk about.

23
00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:14,400
Speaker 2: I'm still waiting on some quarterback news, so we'll see

24
00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:17,760
Speaker 2: what happens on that front. We'll talk about that. But

25
00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:22,640
Speaker 2: all as well, another year in the books, like my

26
00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:25,520
Speaker 2: season is just like you know, after college basketball, then

27
00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:29,320
Speaker 2: we started a new one. So I'm looking forward to

28
00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:34,440
Speaker 2: this year, another year of getting older. I was out

29
00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:37,039
Speaker 2: at a friends with my wife's friends that I've come

30
00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,760
Speaker 2: from with her twenty first birthday last night at the bar,

31
00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:44,720
Speaker 2: and that didn't you haven't felt quite that old in

32
00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:49,040
Speaker 2: some time. But yeah, all as well, how about with you?

33
00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:52,960
Speaker 3: I'm good, I'm I'm actually I'm on like the heater

34
00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:55,720
Speaker 3: of my life and it's not in the NFL, so

35
00:01:55,920 --> 00:02:00,320
Speaker 3: go figure. I think it's something like fifty and over

36
00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:02,280
Speaker 3: the last two months or something like that, so trying

37
00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:04,520
Speaker 3: to keep it going. Have a have a prop on

38
00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:07,400
Speaker 3: the uh Warriors Mavericks game, UH, that we're going to

39
00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:10,440
Speaker 3: be recording as it's going on, so that we love

40
00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:12,440
Speaker 3: you guys out there so much that we're not even

41
00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:15,840
Speaker 3: watching this conference finals, although maybe, uh, maybe that's for

42
00:02:15,919 --> 00:02:17,440
Speaker 3: the best and it's none of them been close, but

43
00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:20,800
Speaker 3: feeling good man, feel excited to kind of get back

44
00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:23,280
Speaker 3: into everything. Now that we have rosters pretty much set,

45
00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:26,320
Speaker 3: we have you know, actual schedules, not just the opponents,

46
00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:29,640
Speaker 3: so we're gonna go through every team on this podcast.

47
00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:32,720
Speaker 3: We'll also have an NFC episode that should be dropping

48
00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:35,520
Speaker 3: as you guys are listening to this one, it should

49
00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:36,079
Speaker 3: be out as well.

50
00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:38,000
Speaker 1: And yeah, we're gonna go team by team.

51
00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:40,880
Speaker 3: We're gonna talk about, uh, draft picks, what do we think,

52
00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:44,959
Speaker 3: We're gonna talk about free agency, addition subtractions, you know,

53
00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:46,360
Speaker 3: just how the roster's coming together.

54
00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:49,640
Speaker 1: Uh, you know how we're kind of power rating these teams.

55
00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:53,640
Speaker 3: We'll talk about the schedule and uh, and we'll talk about,

56
00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:56,480
Speaker 3: you know, obviously any betting implications now that we have

57
00:02:57,400 --> 00:02:59,079
Speaker 3: full rosters and schedules and all those things.

58
00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:01,280
Speaker 2: So before we're gonna to the team's just a general

59
00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:03,200
Speaker 2: question which will kind of applies to every team that

60
00:03:03,200 --> 00:03:04,720
Speaker 2: we'll talk about it for both the AFC and NC,

61
00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:07,120
Speaker 2: because I think that you can apply some fantasy stuff

62
00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:11,000
Speaker 2: to this too. Some a team's draft is never really

63
00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:14,520
Speaker 2: without excluding trades, right, but a team's draft is never

64
00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:17,720
Speaker 2: really going to move the needle For me, for where

65
00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,079
Speaker 2: I had them before the draft and then where I

66
00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,880
Speaker 2: had them after. I'll slightly adjust them, but it's I

67
00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:26,040
Speaker 2: don't think there's anything that a team can do. You know,

68
00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:28,560
Speaker 2: maybe at one you get a quarterback, but I mean

69
00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:32,040
Speaker 2: we've seen rookie quarterbacks struggle before and sometimes it takes

70
00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:34,079
Speaker 2: time to look at Trevor Lawrence. So how do you

71
00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:36,960
Speaker 2: look at rookies? You could talk from a fantasy perspective

72
00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:40,680
Speaker 2: and or just their impact and power into a team.

73
00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:42,920
Speaker 2: Is it like what a team? There's a couple of

74
00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:44,480
Speaker 2: teams that we'll talk about that I think nailed almost

75
00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:47,240
Speaker 2: every pick, but I'm not moving them up a full

76
00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:50,200
Speaker 2: win because of a rookie draft class. So how do

77
00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:52,160
Speaker 2: you look at it from both a fantasy and betting perspective?

78
00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:55,040
Speaker 3: Well, from fantasy, and I should mention Kerner and I

79
00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,760
Speaker 3: have a fantasy episode out right now with our you know,

80
00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:01,520
Speaker 3: draft implications. We're doing one for every division, so we

81
00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:03,480
Speaker 3: have the a he started with the AFC West. That

82
00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:06,680
Speaker 3: episode should be out right now, and then we're gonna

83
00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,400
Speaker 3: record the NFC West this week and we'll keep going

84
00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,760
Speaker 3: for the next seven weeks. But I think for fantasy,

85
00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:17,240
Speaker 3: it's big for wide receivers and running backs, guys drafted

86
00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:20,359
Speaker 3: on Day one especially and also Day two to some extent,

87
00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:23,880
Speaker 3: we see a big drop off in usage rates in

88
00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:26,680
Speaker 3: running backs and wide receivers after the.

89
00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:27,799
Speaker 1: First two days of a draft.

90
00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,240
Speaker 3: But you know, if you're drafted in the first round,

91
00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:32,760
Speaker 3: second round, even the third round, there's a good chance

92
00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:36,520
Speaker 3: you're gonna get you know, starter level production or starter

93
00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,200
Speaker 3: level targets out of them or you know, carries, whatever.

94
00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:41,560
Speaker 1: You call it in depending on the position.

95
00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:44,920
Speaker 3: At those positions, quarterback is you know different obviously, you know,

96
00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:49,440
Speaker 3: just depends if you're starting or not. But tight ends

97
00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:51,440
Speaker 3: really never make an impact, so you're not really looking

98
00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:54,040
Speaker 3: at them outside of a guy like Kyle Pitts who

99
00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:55,480
Speaker 3: went last year in round one and there was no

100
00:04:55,600 --> 00:04:58,280
Speaker 3: tight end like that. This year, maybe the Cardinals used McBride,

101
00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:00,880
Speaker 3: but he's still behind zach Ertz on that depth chart.

102
00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:02,800
Speaker 3: But they might go more too tight and we'll talk

103
00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:05,800
Speaker 3: about that in the next episode. And then from betting, Yeah,

104
00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:09,360
Speaker 3: it's it's not about really moving teams up a whole lot.

105
00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:10,560
Speaker 2: I do like to see.

106
00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:14,040
Speaker 3: I think certain things are a little under the radar

107
00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:15,800
Speaker 3: that might move them up a couple of you know,

108
00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:17,680
Speaker 3: decibel points, like I like.

109
00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:20,080
Speaker 1: When you know team like a team like the Ravens

110
00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:20,640
Speaker 1: for example.

111
00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:23,040
Speaker 3: And I'm sure you'll have a lot to say about them,

112
00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:27,000
Speaker 3: but I like that they drafted like starter starter caliber

113
00:05:27,080 --> 00:05:30,360
Speaker 3: players at like maybe not the most key positions, but

114
00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:32,400
Speaker 3: like they got to start in caliber center, they got

115
00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:35,080
Speaker 3: to start in caliber safety. So like that can make

116
00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:39,440
Speaker 3: a difference, you know, in terms of just plugging up

117
00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:41,640
Speaker 3: weaknesses because you are kind of raiding these teams based

118
00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:43,960
Speaker 3: on you know, the guys you think they're gonna play.

119
00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:45,320
Speaker 1: Most of the snaps for most of the year.

120
00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:47,560
Speaker 3: And so when you can plug in a guy like

121
00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:49,200
Speaker 3: linder Bomb at center, you can plug in a guy

122
00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:51,599
Speaker 3: like Hamilton, you know, maybe at your you know, second

123
00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:53,640
Speaker 3: or third safety or your nickel whatever you down, whatever

124
00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:55,640
Speaker 3: you want to call it, that does kind of move

125
00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:56,400
Speaker 3: the needle a little bit.

126
00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:59,000
Speaker 1: And I think those moves tend to go under the radar.

127
00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:01,200
Speaker 1: But then as far as like some.

128
00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:03,320
Speaker 2: Of the other way you mentioned Linderbaum and we'll talk

129
00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:05,479
Speaker 2: about him, But if you look historically on the history

130
00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:09,400
Speaker 2: of the draft, the most slam dunk position to draft

131
00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:11,440
Speaker 2: in the first round has been center. YEP, it basically

132
00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:15,120
Speaker 2: has almost never failed. It's you'll, i think one hundred

133
00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:16,719
Speaker 2: percent of the time in the last twenty years they've

134
00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:18,520
Speaker 2: re signed with the same team, which shows you that

135
00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:21,200
Speaker 2: you know, it was a good draft, bick. So if

136
00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:23,320
Speaker 2: you could find a good center in the first round

137
00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:24,920
Speaker 2: our grandt they're not you're not going to win overall,

138
00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:29,080
Speaker 2: but centers generally are a pretty sure thing in the

139
00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:29,680
Speaker 2: first round.

140
00:06:30,120 --> 00:06:32,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, and then besides that, it's tough because a lot

141
00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:35,960
Speaker 3: of the teams that you know are drafting guys at

142
00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,839
Speaker 3: key positions are already either like so bad or they're

143
00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,320
Speaker 3: drafting at the back of the first round their second round,

144
00:06:42,400 --> 00:06:43,960
Speaker 3: and they're good enough that it's not going to move

145
00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:44,680
Speaker 3: the needle either way.

146
00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:47,120
Speaker 1: So like a team like Atlanta, it's like they got

147
00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:49,520
Speaker 1: Drake London. A lot of people don't even think he's.

148
00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:51,240
Speaker 3: Can separate and this and that, but like that's not

149
00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:54,359
Speaker 3: really even I mean, the receiver deep chart was terrible

150
00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:56,760
Speaker 3: going into the draft that it's still pretty terrible coming

151
00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:58,880
Speaker 3: out of the draft. And you know, their quarterbacks still

152
00:06:58,880 --> 00:07:04,239
Speaker 3: Marcus mariodaquarterbacks class. I think this year, especially the quarterback

153
00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:06,520
Speaker 3: class is not making a big impact on how we

154
00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:10,160
Speaker 3: rate these teams because teams didn't really feel highly about

155
00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:10,480
Speaker 3: the class.

156
00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:12,360
Speaker 1: So who knows even how many starts these guys are

157
00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:12,840
Speaker 1: gonna get?

158
00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:15,960
Speaker 2: How many mean, Desbin Ritter said he's gonna stay in

159
00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:17,680
Speaker 2: Atlanta until he brings some the super Bowl. He might

160
00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:19,080
Speaker 2: be there for the next fifty years. I don't know

161
00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:20,320
Speaker 2: how many contracts it's gonna take.

162
00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:23,360
Speaker 1: His funeral is going to be on the you know,

163
00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:26,760
Speaker 1: in the Falcons home field. A sentition. He's essentially gonna

164
00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:28,280
Speaker 1: die as Falcon at this point.

165
00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:30,720
Speaker 2: Hey, that's one way I give him credit. That's one

166
00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,280
Speaker 2: way to try to just get maybe a lifetime contract

167
00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:35,160
Speaker 2: before you play a game. I promise I will bring

168
00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:37,560
Speaker 2: a super Bowl here before I leave here. I'm not

169
00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:39,440
Speaker 2: putting any time timing on it, but I will bring

170
00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:41,720
Speaker 2: a super Bowl to Atlanta. Sign me forever.

171
00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:44,320
Speaker 1: Upy season, man, I hate I hate this time of year.

172
00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:46,880
Speaker 1: People are all optimistic and shit, I'm like, that's not

173
00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:48,960
Speaker 1: like talking to you. You're like usually like, all right,

174
00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:50,640
Speaker 1: I'm a point out what's wrong with these teams.

175
00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:52,840
Speaker 3: Because it's like everyone talking about what's right with these

176
00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:55,080
Speaker 3: teams all off season and this and that everyone has

177
00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:56,320
Speaker 3: zero losses.

178
00:07:56,960 --> 00:07:59,880
Speaker 2: It's like if not everyone look, it's not a net

179
00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:03,560
Speaker 2: not everyone could have gotten better, and and not everyone

180
00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:05,760
Speaker 2: is going to improve. Not all the draft picks are

181
00:08:05,800 --> 00:08:08,600
Speaker 2: going to work out. It's not but the coverage of

182
00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:11,880
Speaker 2: teams when you look at it, everyone generally looks at

183
00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:15,320
Speaker 2: it from uh, you know, with like rose colored glasses

184
00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:17,640
Speaker 2: and oh, well they drafted this position of need and

185
00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,040
Speaker 2: this guy in the first round, like, well, obviously they

186
00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:23,040
Speaker 2: needed a receiver. They're gonna draft a receiver. Doesn't necessarily

187
00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:25,920
Speaker 2: solve all your issues from last year. That's what some

188
00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:28,000
Speaker 2: of the numbers help was with. And we'll dive in.

189
00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:30,840
Speaker 2: Let's go, uh where we're gonna start in the AFCA.

190
00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:34,280
Speaker 3: Our Bills, which you know is the team that is

191
00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:37,319
Speaker 3: kind of pegged by many as the best team in

192
00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:40,240
Speaker 3: the AFC. They started out. I'll just set up some

193
00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:43,600
Speaker 3: things and then we can dive in. First round Kyri

194
00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:47,160
Speaker 3: Illum the cornerback. They got James Cook, a running back

195
00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:48,840
Speaker 3: I really like. At the end of the second round,

196
00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:51,439
Speaker 3: added Von millerin free agency. He was a top five

197
00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:52,920
Speaker 3: ed drusher in PFF grades.

198
00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:53,760
Speaker 1: You know how good he is.

199
00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:56,400
Speaker 3: But even at this age, he's still you know, the

200
00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:59,320
Speaker 3: tape is still kind of backing that up. Tredavious White

201
00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:01,960
Speaker 3: towards a C. Also, he may not return until mid season,

202
00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:07,480
Speaker 3: kind of the you know, a median return date would

203
00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:10,839
Speaker 3: be in October, just based on how those recoveries go.

204
00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:15,079
Speaker 3: Every AFC team, by the way, has nine road games,

205
00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:18,719
Speaker 3: I believe, and then the Bills, and in terms of

206
00:09:18,760 --> 00:09:24,120
Speaker 3: the winning win totals, their strength of schedules middle of

207
00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:28,719
Speaker 3: the pack, eighteenth, easiest, and their win totals eleven and

208
00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:31,240
Speaker 3: a half juice to the over at minus one forty.

209
00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:34,000
Speaker 1: They underachieved their Pythagora win total.

210
00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:36,480
Speaker 3: It was thirteen point one last year, which is essentially

211
00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:39,200
Speaker 3: looking at margin and victory to extrapolate to wins. They

212
00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:42,120
Speaker 3: only won eleven and six. So a lot to like

213
00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,760
Speaker 3: about the Bills. What are you thinking about Buffalo on

214
00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:45,480
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two?

215
00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:48,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think yeah. Technically all the answer teams have

216
00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:50,599
Speaker 2: nine road games, but not all of them are on

217
00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:54,160
Speaker 2: the road. There's a couple exceptions, one ding Denver, who

218
00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:58,079
Speaker 2: like one of their road games is in London against Jacksonville.

219
00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:02,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, I love that the Bills I have the

220
00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:05,040
Speaker 2: highest rated team and they see what shouldn't come as

221
00:10:05,080 --> 00:10:07,160
Speaker 2: a shock to anyone. I really liked their draft. I

222
00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:10,679
Speaker 2: also really like the signing of Crowder. I think that's

223
00:10:10,760 --> 00:10:13,199
Speaker 2: just like I'm siding that people aren't talking about enough

224
00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:15,600
Speaker 2: on the cheap On the other side, on the flip side,

225
00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:17,360
Speaker 2: I didn't really love the signing and what they've paid

226
00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:21,680
Speaker 2: and for Von Miller, But overall, I think that last

227
00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:24,560
Speaker 2: year this offensive line was dealing with a lot of injuries.

228
00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:27,440
Speaker 2: They bring in Staffold by the way as well. When

229
00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:30,160
Speaker 2: the offensive line was together, the offense was electric. You

230
00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:32,240
Speaker 2: bringing a guy named bring a guy a crowded. I

231
00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:36,240
Speaker 2: also like the draft of Cook running back. I think

232
00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:38,760
Speaker 2: out of the backfield he can help them as well.

233
00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:41,120
Speaker 2: So the Bills are gonna be right there. Trey White

234
00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:43,600
Speaker 2: is the name of the watch. Once he comes back,

235
00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:45,720
Speaker 2: he's a lockdown corner number one. He's gotta be healthy.

236
00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:49,199
Speaker 2: But if Elam, you know, they're gonna they're counting a

237
00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:52,480
Speaker 2: lot on elim if White isn't healthy. And I personally

238
00:10:52,520 --> 00:10:55,360
Speaker 2: will talk about this a lot. I don't put too

239
00:10:55,480 --> 00:11:01,920
Speaker 2: much stock into rookie cornerbacks. It is a very difficult transition,

240
00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:05,240
Speaker 2: Like for example, we're going to get to the Jets

241
00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:08,600
Speaker 2: in the same division. I am probably the biggest fan

242
00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:10,719
Speaker 2: of Sauce Gardner out there. I think he's going to

243
00:11:10,760 --> 00:11:13,600
Speaker 2: be a superstar, but I can't. I don't expect him

244
00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:15,920
Speaker 2: to come in and be a lockdown, shut down corner

245
00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:21,040
Speaker 2: in his rookie year. It is extremely rare. There's gonna

246
00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:24,599
Speaker 2: be struggles that it's an adjustment at this level. So

247
00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:26,760
Speaker 2: you can't expect that Elam's going to come in and

248
00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:29,760
Speaker 2: be Okay, we don't even need White, but I think

249
00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:32,480
Speaker 2: he there's some upside there. I think more so for

250
00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:34,599
Speaker 2: the future. So White's the name the watch on that

251
00:11:34,720 --> 00:11:38,120
Speaker 2: defense because just having that shutdown corner takes that defense

252
00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:41,000
Speaker 2: to the next level. The Bills are right there. Unfortunately,

253
00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:45,040
Speaker 2: by the way, Matt Arza, I have to shout out

254
00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:47,960
Speaker 2: the punter. I think that he's a punt god. Now

255
00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:52,120
Speaker 2: there was questions about his handtime, which my dream was

256
00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:54,760
Speaker 2: the Ravens to get arise at and have horizon. Tucker

257
00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:57,920
Speaker 2: ran the Ravens dreath at a punter before Aria, which wasn't.

258
00:11:58,559 --> 00:11:58,959
Speaker 1: I love that.

259
00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:01,120
Speaker 2: I love the Ravens except for that one move. But

260
00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:02,040
Speaker 2: we'll see how it works out.

261
00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:03,720
Speaker 1: Hey, I mean, you don't don't hate on a raven

262
00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:05,360
Speaker 1: Maybe they know something we don't like.

263
00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:07,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, there was a lot of hangtime, Like

264
00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:10,360
Speaker 2: the hangtime was was apparently like not that's all that

265
00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:12,760
Speaker 2: really matters in the NFL. It's like you're not gonna

266
00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:15,720
Speaker 2: be punting from your own five A lot in altitude

267
00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:17,720
Speaker 2: punting at ninety yards and a lot of time. You might,

268
00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:20,839
Speaker 2: I'll kick your coverage in uh the NFL, But I

269
00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:24,160
Speaker 2: really did like the I think this kid Shakir from

270
00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:28,199
Speaker 2: Boise had some promise, Like yeah, so I like I

271
00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:31,520
Speaker 2: like the Bills draft a lot. I think that they

272
00:12:31,720 --> 00:12:34,200
Speaker 2: improve their team. They're gonna be right there. Their win

273
00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:38,880
Speaker 2: total is you know, a juiced over under twelve or

274
00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:41,160
Speaker 2: over eleven and a half. It's right in between those

275
00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:44,240
Speaker 2: two numbers. I project them at eleven point seven. So

276
00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:46,840
Speaker 2: I show no value here, but I have empower rated.

277
00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:48,920
Speaker 2: It's not just the best team in the AFC, but

278
00:12:49,160 --> 00:12:52,120
Speaker 2: in the entire NFL. The main questions are when is

279
00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,640
Speaker 2: Trey White come back? And how healthy is he?

280
00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:55,199
Speaker 1: Is he?

281
00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:57,960
Speaker 2: What does the loss of Brian Dable mean? And then

282
00:12:57,960 --> 00:13:00,800
Speaker 2: where does Josh Allen go? Like, you know, we see

283
00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:03,800
Speaker 2: sometimes he's he made that leap, and then we've seen okay,

284
00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:06,280
Speaker 2: now there is some little bit of accuracy issues. Then

285
00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:08,760
Speaker 2: we just see him explode again. Is he gonna be

286
00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:11,120
Speaker 2: consistent and is he gonna get even better this year

287
00:13:11,160 --> 00:13:12,760
Speaker 2: or does he take a step back. That's the only

288
00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:14,600
Speaker 2: thing I would worry about from a Bills fans perspective,

289
00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:16,720
Speaker 2: this team will be there, They'll be in the dance.

290
00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:20,719
Speaker 2: Hopefully they learn how to squip kick. Unfortunately, there's no

291
00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:25,000
Speaker 2: value in the futures market from my perspective. We didn't

292
00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:26,439
Speaker 2: get there last year, but we gave it a run.

293
00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:28,839
Speaker 2: But yeah, those are gonna be right there, like what

294
00:13:28,920 --> 00:13:32,040
Speaker 2: they did in the draft, and they're a legit contender.

295
00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:35,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, and their schedules also interesting.

296
00:13:36,480 --> 00:13:38,520
Speaker 3: Our producer Matt Mitchell wanted to me to point out

297
00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:43,439
Speaker 3: that they have five primetime games this year. They in

298
00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:46,480
Speaker 3: eighteen seasons before Josh Allen arrived, they never had more

299
00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:49,599
Speaker 3: than two. And like way back in the day, you know,

300
00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:52,679
Speaker 3: people are older fans may remember like two to six

301
00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:53,640
Speaker 3: they didn't even have any.

302
00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:54,800
Speaker 1: So like this team has.

303
00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,160
Speaker 3: You know, this franchise over the last couple of decades

304
00:13:57,200 --> 00:13:59,640
Speaker 3: has really turned it around, you know, maybe trying to

305
00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:03,559
Speaker 3: get back that heyday in the nineties. But I think

306
00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:08,840
Speaker 3: I wanted to ask you about, you know, how worried

307
00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:10,720
Speaker 3: would you be because I know you have the bills

308
00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:12,840
Speaker 3: at eleven point seven wins. I agree, I don't think

309
00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:15,480
Speaker 3: there's any value in the in the win total in

310
00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:17,480
Speaker 3: the futures market in general, just because they're kind of

311
00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:20,640
Speaker 3: so their priced very highly, but like, how worried are

312
00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:22,320
Speaker 3: you if they get off to a slow start, Because

313
00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:26,600
Speaker 3: I'm looking at their early season schedule and at the

314
00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:30,760
Speaker 3: Rams home versus the Titans at Miami at Baltimore in

315
00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:35,320
Speaker 3: the first four games, and then their sixth game is

316
00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:38,360
Speaker 3: Kansa is at Kansas City. Then they get a buy

317
00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:40,960
Speaker 3: and early by in week seven, and then they come

318
00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:43,160
Speaker 3: off that buy and they have to face Green Bay.

319
00:14:43,640 --> 00:14:44,640
Speaker 1: They're at home for that game.

320
00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:47,360
Speaker 3: But I mean, that is not an easy early season

321
00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:49,960
Speaker 3: schedule for a team that so many people have high

322
00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:50,280
Speaker 3: hopes for.

323
00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:56,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, actually taken a slightly different viewpoint because I agree.

324
00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:58,040
Speaker 2: When I first looked at the sedule, that was my

325
00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:00,560
Speaker 2: first thought, but I kind of went, now, look, there's

326
00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:02,520
Speaker 2: people will talk about a super Bowl hangover that hasn't

327
00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:04,360
Speaker 2: really been the case, and we'll have pieces on that,

328
00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:06,200
Speaker 2: like the super Bowl winner. It's not like an auto

329
00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:08,120
Speaker 2: fade in the first game the next year. But I

330
00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:11,560
Speaker 2: actually liked them, spread will be right around a pick.

331
00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:13,760
Speaker 2: I assume I actually liked them in that Week one

332
00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:16,280
Speaker 2: game against the Rems home and then they're at the Rems.

333
00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:20,080
Speaker 2: Then they get you know what, ten days, ten eleven days,

334
00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,040
Speaker 2: because that game against Tennessee is on a Monday, so

335
00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:26,160
Speaker 2: you get and I'm down on Tennessee there, But look

336
00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:27,800
Speaker 2: when I look at their schedule, then I start digging

337
00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:31,400
Speaker 2: in some more. The Chiefs game, I haven't favored in

338
00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:34,040
Speaker 2: sixteen out of seventeen games. The only game I don't

339
00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,480
Speaker 2: have the Bills favored, and it's gonna be close is

340
00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:40,800
Speaker 2: at Kansas City Enormous Revenge. I mean that is the

341
00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:43,600
Speaker 2: circle game, just like last year in the regular season.

342
00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:45,720
Speaker 2: You remember when the Bills went to Kansas City with

343
00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:48,600
Speaker 2: enormous Revenge. And I like the fact that after that

344
00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:52,240
Speaker 2: game they have a bye. Okay, even if it was

345
00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:53,960
Speaker 2: a huge win, especially if it was a huge win,

346
00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:57,400
Speaker 2: we have a bye, no emotional left down. We have

347
00:15:57,440 --> 00:15:59,080
Speaker 2: two weeks to get ready for Green Bay, who has

348
00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:03,680
Speaker 2: to come to buff Low. So I actually like it.

349
00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:06,360
Speaker 2: I like some aspects of such, even though it does

350
00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:08,960
Speaker 2: look tough in the beginning. But yeah, like I said,

351
00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:10,960
Speaker 2: I haven't favored in sixteen and seventy. Wouldn't be shocked

352
00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:13,160
Speaker 2: if they close. A favor to Kansas City. Takes some

353
00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:15,560
Speaker 2: sharp money there and depends on how they're playing early

354
00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:20,000
Speaker 2: on in the season gone to my head, I'd probably

355
00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:23,760
Speaker 2: go over eleven and a half. I wouldn't go over twelve,

356
00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,800
Speaker 2: but I'm at eleven seven. So but I think that

357
00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:29,080
Speaker 2: Chiefs game is gonna swing a lot of things, and

358
00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:30,960
Speaker 2: I think they get them, and then obviously the Rams too,

359
00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:32,440
Speaker 2: but I think they beat the Rams and I think

360
00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:36,040
Speaker 2: they beat the Chiefs. Those are two coin flip games

361
00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,360
Speaker 2: and I think they're gonna get and that'll probably swing

362
00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:42,080
Speaker 2: the wind total either way. But yeah, it's not an

363
00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:45,360
Speaker 2: easy not an easy front half of the schedule. You

364
00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:48,120
Speaker 2: get an early buy and then it's gonna be a

365
00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:50,440
Speaker 2: lot of games, but it eases up towards the end.

366
00:16:52,200 --> 00:16:53,280
Speaker 2: I think the Bills will be okay.

367
00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:57,040
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to Miami. This team, on paper,

368
00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,440
Speaker 3: has the potential to be a lot better than they

369
00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:03,040
Speaker 3: were last year. I still think it comes down to

370
00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:05,960
Speaker 3: the quarterback and two at the end of the day,

371
00:17:06,040 --> 00:17:08,159
Speaker 3: but there's a lots to like about some of the

372
00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:09,560
Speaker 3: pieces they added around him.

373
00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:11,679
Speaker 1: They didn't really do much in the draft. They only

374
00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:13,520
Speaker 1: have four picks total, none in Days one or two.

375
00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:17,560
Speaker 3: But Mike McDaniel, new head coach, comes over from the

376
00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:20,760
Speaker 3: oc ROW in San Francisco. They had Tyreek Hill at

377
00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:24,680
Speaker 3: wide receiver, Cedric Wilson as well, which is an underrated

378
00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:28,520
Speaker 3: signing but gives them some versatility and some depth. Trent Sherfield,

379
00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:30,280
Speaker 3: I think should really helped their special teams, which was

380
00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:32,960
Speaker 3: twenty ninth in DVOA UH. And then they got you know,

381
00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:35,800
Speaker 3: Teddy Bridgewater, which is a solid backup quarterback who can

382
00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:40,160
Speaker 3: step in if two is not performing to expectation, Chase

383
00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:42,960
Speaker 3: Edmonds at running back. Also got Mos Dirt who's a

384
00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:48,480
Speaker 3: good special teamer as well, and Toront Armstead. Yeah, Connor Williams,

385
00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,400
Speaker 3: a you know, pretty solid interior lineman who ranked number

386
00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:55,600
Speaker 3: eleven in PFF grades among eighty two guards last year.

387
00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,720
Speaker 3: Melvin Ingram, they get on the edge on defense. So

388
00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:04,359
Speaker 3: this is a quality roster. But at the end of

389
00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:06,639
Speaker 3: the day, we've seen this before with you know, teams

390
00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:08,720
Speaker 3: can have a quality roster, but we kind of saw

391
00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:10,240
Speaker 3: it with Denver last year, like they didn't have many

392
00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:13,840
Speaker 3: holes on the roster, but quarterback was one of the holes.

393
00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,760
Speaker 3: And quarterback could still be a hole for Miami. So

394
00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:19,200
Speaker 3: what do you think about this team? Because there's a

395
00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:21,800
Speaker 3: lot of high expectations. The win total is is kind

396
00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:24,800
Speaker 3: of it's middle of the pack at nine, the over

397
00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,080
Speaker 3: is used to plus. I mean the over is plus

398
00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:30,399
Speaker 3: money at one oh five, So you know it's not

399
00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:32,760
Speaker 3: it's crazy overreaction.

400
00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:34,919
Speaker 1: But I'm curious to read that Miami ends up.

401
00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:37,720
Speaker 2: Yeah. I didn't do much obviously adjust to them for

402
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:39,679
Speaker 2: Tyreek Hill, arm said, I like some of the things

403
00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:43,399
Speaker 2: that did in free agency. It's kind of like some

404
00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:45,200
Speaker 2: of the moves they made are like, we're going for

405
00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:49,640
Speaker 2: it now. The question is, is too already? I haven't

406
00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:53,800
Speaker 2: seen it yet, but I think that, you know, the

407
00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,160
Speaker 2: tools are there. We have to see how he reads defense.

408
00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:58,119
Speaker 2: Is gonna throw the ball down the field? How's it

409
00:18:58,119 --> 00:18:59,560
Speaker 2: all going to work? I think arm set helps. The

410
00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:01,760
Speaker 2: all offensive line has also been a huge issue for too.

411
00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:03,960
Speaker 2: You can't throw this all onto it. The offensive line

412
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,200
Speaker 2: has been one of the worst in the NFL since

413
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:11,600
Speaker 2: he's arrived. The defense is what would concern me a

414
00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:14,920
Speaker 2: little bit for Miami. And you know, you obviously had

415
00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:18,919
Speaker 2: a really good signal caller calling the defenses. And one

416
00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,280
Speaker 2: of the strengths of that defense is you had two

417
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:24,359
Speaker 2: really reliable corners still on the roster. But by the

418
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 2: time September comes around, and this always scares me. What

419
00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:31,639
Speaker 2: Byron Jones will be thirty and Howard will be twenty

420
00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 2: nine or thirty. Right when corner, you know, man corners

421
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:40,320
Speaker 2: especially start, you start to see a big drop off

422
00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:42,879
Speaker 2: in production. So if that happens, I'd be really worried

423
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:47,400
Speaker 2: about the defense. There's obviously some upside here. Bringing in Hill,

424
00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,480
Speaker 2: the young offensive lineman get better to it takes that

425
00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:52,680
Speaker 2: next step as a result, because you have target, you

426
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:54,560
Speaker 2: have a better offensive line, and then you know you're

427
00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:58,120
Speaker 2: just improving over time. So there is a high upside here.

428
00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:01,359
Speaker 2: And I also think that Teddy bridge Water kind of

429
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 2: increases the floor. Right, So if things are going wrong

430
00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:08,400
Speaker 2: with two, you know what you're gonna get from Teddy

431
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:12,159
Speaker 2: Bridgewater just steady, consistent, veteran backup. So I think that

432
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,560
Speaker 2: he kind of raises the floor for this team. I'm

433
00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:17,840
Speaker 2: right around where the market is at around eight seven

434
00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:20,720
Speaker 2: eight eight. We talked about this, I think before. I

435
00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,080
Speaker 2: think it's a team that you wouldn't want to bet

436
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,040
Speaker 2: on a win total, but if you like the upside,

437
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,200
Speaker 2: go all right, Maybe win division. It's gonna be tough

438
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:33,000
Speaker 2: with the Bills, but maybe win the AFC. Because I

439
00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:36,680
Speaker 2: do think that there's upside with a limited floor, So

440
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 2: I guess I would go over if anything, but I'm

441
00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:41,239
Speaker 2: priced right around there. Maybe it's a team you take

442
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 2: a shot on even though the AFC is loaded, because

443
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:44,639
Speaker 2: I do think that there's some upside.

444
00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:47,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the AFC East at plus four fifty

445
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:50,240
Speaker 3: is interesting for Miami because, like I said, if the

446
00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 3: Bills get off to a slow start, and he might not,

447
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:54,720
Speaker 3: like you made a good case for them not to,

448
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 3: but it's still a tough schedule, and then you know,

449
00:20:57,040 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 3: if they get up to a slow start second.

450
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,199
Speaker 1: Half of the season. That's what I think.

451
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 3: There's a little more parody sometimes because you know there's

452
00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:05,000
Speaker 3: injuries and and whatnot.

453
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:06,199
Speaker 1: You know, you can't really predict.

454
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:10,680
Speaker 3: So I think Miami is kind of live here, but

455
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,400
Speaker 3: it's gonna come down to Tua. Their strength of schedules

456
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:13,920
Speaker 3: the middle.

457
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 1: Of the pack. But in Miami is another team you

458
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:17,840
Speaker 1: know that could also start slow.

459
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,359
Speaker 3: I mean they start off New England at Baltimore and

460
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 3: they played Buffalo and then they go to Cincinnati, so

461
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 3: it's not gonna be it's not gonna be easy, and

462
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:28,360
Speaker 3: they did kind of overachieved last year seven point six

463
00:21:28,520 --> 00:21:29,440
Speaker 3: Pythagora and wins.

464
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,360
Speaker 1: They went nine and eight. But I do like this team.

465
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 3: I don't see a ton of weaknesses on a roster.

466
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 3: You know, maybe the corners slowed down a little, but

467
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:43,920
Speaker 3: I really like their safety. What's Holland's and uh, yeah, yeah,

468
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:48,280
Speaker 3: Holland and uh you know, I think overall it's it's

469
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 3: gonna be a solid defense. Maybe you know you're hurting

470
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:53,840
Speaker 3: from the loss of Brian Flores that that's certainly an issue.

471
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 3: I think he was very obviously good coach.

472
00:21:55,680 --> 00:21:59,440
Speaker 1: But I'm intrigued. I'm intrigued by by this Dolphins team.

473
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,400
Speaker 3: And here interesting thing about Tua and kind of throwing

474
00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 3: a boil down the field, is tu a tongue of

475
00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 3: Iloa actually led the NFL in yards per attempt on

476
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 3: twenty on past his twenty yards downfield and more at

477
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:15,359
Speaker 3: eighteen point one. That's that's a crazy stat but he

478
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:20,440
Speaker 3: was exactly He's second fewest in a teen percentage, so

479
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,040
Speaker 3: second out of thirty seven qualifiers the quartering and PFF

480
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,440
Speaker 3: seven point five of his attempts travel twenty yards and

481
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:28,400
Speaker 3: more down the field till he was fourteen to twenty nine,

482
00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:31,760
Speaker 3: five hundred and twenty six yards. That's eighteen point one

483
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 3: yards per attempt, one touchdown, two picks, So sample size

484
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 3: is small, but he seemed like a guy that he

485
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 3: would only do it when it was open, and you know,

486
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 3: when it was of and Tyreek Hill.

487
00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 1: Is going to certainly increase those chances.

488
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 3: So if he could go be anywhere near you know,

489
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,200
Speaker 3: top of the league in efficiency, even if he's not

490
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 3: throwing it deep, you know, at a top ten, top

491
00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 3: you know, top fifteen rate. If he's just middle of

492
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,680
Speaker 3: the pack and he's that efficient, you know, for a

493
00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 3: team that went nine and eight last year, I think

494
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:03,479
Speaker 3: there is some intrigue here with Miami.

495
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 2: So I think one thing I'll point out with Miami's

496
00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 2: schedule is that the back half of it, you get

497
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 2: a buy then you get the Texans, right, so you

498
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 2: assume that's a win. But then you get into December.

499
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 2: You're going to sant fran to the Chargers, two games

500
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 2: in the West Coast. We'll see what they do back

501
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 2: to back. Then you're going to cross the country, warm

502
00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:26,640
Speaker 2: weather team to Buffalo on the road, third straight road game.

503
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,440
Speaker 2: Then you're home in Miami. Maybe this work is in

504
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 2: your favorite playing a cold weather team. We saw Green Bay,

505
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:33,800
Speaker 2: go down to Tampa and not deal with the humunity

506
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,440
Speaker 2: well last year, but you're playing you know it's gonna

507
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:38,240
Speaker 2: be January. But so you're coming to all the now

508
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 2: You're going to Miami to play Green Bay, then you're

509
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 2: going back up to play New England, and then you're

510
00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 2: coming home to play the Jet. I mean, that is

511
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:48,960
Speaker 2: not a kind late season travel schedule. Two games on

512
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,440
Speaker 2: the West Coast, three straight road games, and you're just

513
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:57,400
Speaker 2: going all over the country. So it gets it's there's

514
00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 2: a in the middle there before that happens. There's a

515
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,159
Speaker 2: nice easy stretch to kind of build towards the end

516
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 2: of the season. But if you're for the wind total,

517
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 2: if you're not like sitting pretty going into that stretch,

518
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 2: it could fall apart. So yeah, that's the Dolphins.

519
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 3: Let's go to Patriots and New England's win total was

520
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 3: eight and a half. They drafted guard Cole Strange in

521
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 3: the first round. They drafted wide receiver Taekwon Thornton.

522
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 1: In the second round. Both of those picks were.

523
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 3: Rated significantly lower in pretty much every big board and

524
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 3: kind of draft ranking.

525
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:37,640
Speaker 1: Then the Patriots took them.

526
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 3: So and we also know their struggles with wide receiver,

527
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 3: So I don't know how much of an impact Thornton

528
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:44,479
Speaker 3: makes period strange.

529
00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,679
Speaker 1: I think, you know, could step in and.

530
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 3: Start right right away at guard, so maybe you know

531
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 3: that works in their favor. But they lost cornerback j C. Jackson.

532
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,439
Speaker 3: They added Terence Mitchell, who was outside the top one

533
00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 3: hundred in PFF grades at one hundred and sixteen corners

534
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 3: last year, Malcolm, but were you know, they added Devonte

535
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 3: Parker at wide receiver, so that should help that you know,

536
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:10,160
Speaker 3: that room. But you know, I can't see this team

537
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 3: being I don't know if I could see this team

538
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 3: being as good as last year. But the one thing

539
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:20,400
Speaker 3: about last year's team is they had twelve point four

540
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 3: Pythagora and wins and only went ten and seven. So, uh,

541
00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:26,360
Speaker 3: you know, they are kind of due for some regression

542
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 3: if you if you look into things like that, but

543
00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 3: there weren't you know, I just think then Wilson Jackson

544
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 3: is big, like Bill Belichick is great, a great defensive mind,

545
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 3: but he's not magic like you know. J C.

546
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:38,920
Speaker 1: Jackson was a big part of this team.

547
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 3: And every year it seems like with Belichick's defense, they

548
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 3: had this like really good cornerback and I just don't

549
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 3: know if they're gonna have that this year. So I'm

550
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 3: a little bit concerned about women, especially. You know, Miami

551
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 3: got better. I think even the Jets got better. Buffalo's

552
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 3: one of the best teams in the league, if not

553
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 3: the best, So I don't know. I don't feel great

554
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 3: about New England, but now I have Their win total

555
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 3: is eight point, you know, choose a little bit to

556
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 3: the over eight and a half. I'm between eight and

557
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:14,159
Speaker 3: a half and nine, so I'm right there. Didn't love

558
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:16,359
Speaker 3: what they did in the draft. I thought that was

559
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:17,880
Speaker 3: an extremely strange pick.

560
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 1: Pun intended, yes.

561
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 2: Pun intended so that I didn't think that their roster

562
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 2: got better. You know, maybe Mac Jones takes a leap

563
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 2: and that's what you're hoping, uh translates onto the field

564
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,320
Speaker 2: and it's the most important position. But I also like

565
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 2: the schedule. We talked about the division. I think everyone

566
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 2: around them got better and they didn't necessarily do to themselves.

567
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 2: Now there's more weird flex rules, more so this year,

568
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 2: so this can change. But they have four primetime scheduled,

569
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 2: four primetime games in a row, Thursday at Minnesota, then

570
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 2: Thursday home against Buffalo. This is all end of November December,

571
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:59,360
Speaker 2: then Monday night at Arizona and then at the Raiders

572
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 2: on a night on a short week, like out on

573
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:03,479
Speaker 2: the West Coast for two in a row. Then you're

574
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,840
Speaker 2: home for a Saturday on a short week against Cincy.

575
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:10,400
Speaker 2: You know you're closing the season at Buffalo. I don't

576
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,000
Speaker 2: really love this schedule. I mean from a numbers perspective,

577
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 2: I have New England with the eleventh toughest schedule, so

578
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:21,680
Speaker 2: it's not like they have, you know, the the hardest schedule,

579
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 2: but just looking at it and kind of analyzing, and

580
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:25,680
Speaker 2: I don't love it. But I don't see any guy

581
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 2: in the winter total. It's not a team I'm extremely

582
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 2: high on. But we'll see what Mac Jones does in

583
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 2: his second year or Bailey za Zapi.

584
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 1: I had to get a shot out from my guy there,

585
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 1: Bailey Zappi.

586
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 2: But yeah, pretty underwhelming offseason for the Patriots.

587
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 3: This is a mediocre team, you know, with these quarterbacks,

588
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 3: because you know everyone's going to kind of point to

589
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 3: back Jones and he was, you know, out of all

590
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 3: the rookie quarterbacks, he was great last year. But a

591
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 3: lot of times and I've talked about this before It's

592
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 3: like rookie quarterbacks are usually good right away, and it's

593
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:57,159
Speaker 3: like like second year jumps. It happens more so at

594
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:03,399
Speaker 3: wide receiver, you know, cornerback, some other positions. Quarterbacks, we

595
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:05,399
Speaker 3: kind of tend to see what they are a little earlier,

596
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:08,840
Speaker 3: unless there's like some extrenuating circumstances, like I could see

597
00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 3: a Trevor Lawrence getting better, you know, year two without

598
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 3: urban Meyer and Mac Jones.

599
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 2: Highly recruited kid played at Alabama with Burley talent to

600
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 2: receive his OFFICI line kind of know who he is.

601
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:19,879
Speaker 2: So yeah, I don't think that we're gonna see like

602
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 2: some massive jumps. He was pretty good last year.

603
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, let's jumps to the Jets.

604
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 3: They kind of interesting start to the draft because they

605
00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 3: had three picks in the first round, another in the second.

606
00:28:31,880 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 3: So they got Sauce Gardner at fourth overall the corner

607
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 3: I think he's he's gonna be pretty good, Garrett Wilson,

608
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 3: wide receiver at tenth pick, Jermaine Johnson in edge rusher

609
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,400
Speaker 3: who slipped down the board, so I think they got

610
00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 3: good value in the first round. Breese Hall, the running back.

611
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 3: Don't love taking running backs early in the draft, but

612
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 3: didn't love Breese Hall in terms of I thought he

613
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 3: was the best back in the draft. I think he

614
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:56,640
Speaker 3: has a lot of talent.

615
00:28:56,640 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 1: I think he's going to.

616
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:00,160
Speaker 3: Form a nice you know, one aid to Michael hard

617
00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 3: as one B going forward. They added Awaken Tomlinson, Connor

618
00:29:04,360 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 3: McGovern on the interior line, so that should be better.

619
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 1: CJ.

620
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 3: Soma and Tyra concor at tight end, so maybe it's

621
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 3: not a black hole anymore. DJ Reed Junior, who had

622
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,600
Speaker 3: a really good season at cornerback and is familiar with

623
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:19,240
Speaker 3: with Salah. He was top ten in PFF grades at

624
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 3: one hundred and sixteen corners. They had Jordan white Head

625
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 3: at safety who was pretty good. They lost Marcus May

626
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 3: of course, so I mean the rosters better. I actually

627
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 3: thought that the Jets their win total might jump up

628
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 3: after the draft because and they had a good draft.

629
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 3: But it seems like the sharp money, you know, it

630
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:38,640
Speaker 3: kind of still understood what was going on here because

631
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 3: their win total actually dropped to five and a half.

632
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 3: Now it's way juiced up to minus one sixty five.

633
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 3: But and they have, you know, they have one of

634
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 3: the hardest strength of schedules in terms of opposing win totals.

635
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 3: It's it's one of the six toughest schedules, so not

636
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 3: an easy schedule. They have the nine road games. You know,

637
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 3: what do you think about the Jets is like the

638
00:29:57,200 --> 00:30:00,720
Speaker 3: roster's improved, but it doesn't just come down to Zach Wilson.

639
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, in a load of AFC. I'm not a Zach

640
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 2: Wilson guy. The Jets need Zach Wilson to be that guy,

641
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 2: and if he is, I kind of like where this

642
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 2: franchise is headed. Because I had them with the highest

643
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 2: rated draft of any team. I loved their draft, I mean, greted.

644
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 2: I loved Sauce Gardner, but getting Jermaine Johnson where they did.

645
00:30:20,680 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 2: I loved Wilson, like every single one of their picks.

646
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 2: I loved start to finish. I think, you know Gardner, obviously,

647
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 2: you can't really expect much from a rookie corner, so

648
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 2: but I think Gardner's gonna be a star. So you have, like,

649
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 2: I think that you have a foundational, top end all

650
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 2: pro future corner, which is enormous in today's NFL. But

651
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 2: I still think that this is Look, look, I'm not

652
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 2: a Zach Wilson guy. The AFC is still tough. You're

653
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 2: still a division with an improved Miami team, the Bills,

654
00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 2: who have is the best, the highest rated team in

655
00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:52,760
Speaker 2: the NFL, and then the Patriots we are, you know,

656
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 2: eight nine win team, and the Patriots own the Jets

657
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 2: don't have. You don't forget that. So look, I want

658
00:30:59,920 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 2: to under six. I think I'll be able to find

659
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 2: that maybe a little juice because I still project them

660
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 2: at you know, right around five wins. I think I'm

661
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 2: at four nine to five, so I still think that

662
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 2: they're a year away. If Wilson shows some promise this year,

663
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 2: but I do. I'd love their draft, but I don't

664
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 2: think it's going to really make a huge difference This

665
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 2: year could in the future of Wilson's that guy, but

666
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 2: this is one under. I will be on Jets under

667
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 2: for the third straight year. Next year, Jets fans might

668
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 2: be an over if Wilson shows some promise here or

669
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 2: my guy Mike White gets another shot. I don't really

670
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 2: know who the is. He still the second back up

671
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 2: might still be Flac though I don't even know the

672
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 2: backup is right now. But under under Jets for me,

673
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 2: it'll be my first official player on the spot.

674
00:31:44,640 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 1: Oh no, we suck again. It's tough.

675
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 3: I mean, why do you think their win total actually

676
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 3: went down post draft? Do you think it was just

677
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 3: kind of sharp, you know, not you know, kind of

678
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 3: hitting it on the under kind of like you're planning

679
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 3: to do.

680
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know. I mean I thought I thought

681
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 2: it was around I think it was. It was.

682
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 1: It was definitely there was a sixth clad.

683
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 3: I remember talking to you and saying like, hey, like,

684
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 3: I think this thing might go up after the draft,

685
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 3: so I'm waiting to kind of take the under and

686
00:32:10,120 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 3: then it didn't.

687
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 1: It's still I mean, it's heavily juice. That's five and

688
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 1: a half up to the over. But still it's interesting

689
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 1: to me that like it, like, you know, that kind

690
00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 1: of hype of the draft didn't didn't really do anything.

691
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:22,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's just money Bes came in. But yeah, if

692
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 2: you can get a six under six juice.

693
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 1: Like that, all right.

694
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 3: Was jumped to the AFC North Baltimore Kyle Hamilton mentioned

695
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 3: him the safety. They took him fourteenth overall, center Tyler

696
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 3: Linderbaum at twenty fifth, David Ojabo edge player in the

697
00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 3: second round. Mike McDonald comes in at defensive coordinator. They

698
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 3: traded Marquis Brown. But the secondary should be a lot

699
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 3: better this year. Remember they were ravaged by injuries last year,

700
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:58,760
Speaker 3: and I just had guys playing that had they shouldn't

701
00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 3: have been playing for many they did. But they have

702
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 3: Marcus Williams now he's been a top seven safety in

703
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 3: PFF grades all but one year of his career, with

704
00:33:07,440 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 3: seventh last year.

705
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 1: Kyle Fuller had some depth.

706
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 3: But of course, you know, Marcus Peters should be back,

707
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 3: Marlon Humphrey should be back, Ronnie Stanley, a tackle, should

708
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 3: be back on the old line.

709
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 1: So I think this is a much improved team.

710
00:33:23,160 --> 00:33:27,120
Speaker 3: They have the you know, eleventh easiest strength to schedule

711
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 3: by opposing win totals. They have games at the Jets,

712
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 3: at the Giants, home against Carolina, home against Atlanta, and

713
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 3: at Jacksonville, so they have a lot of gimmeis probably

714
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 3: maybe more gimmes than any other team that I've seen

715
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 3: in terms of their schedule. Their win totals nine and

716
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 3: a half juice to the over at minus one forty.

717
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 2: What do you think? Yeah? I think that. Look I

718
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 2: project there in ten point six wins, So I like

719
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 2: the over Here from Matt's standpoint, I love their draft.

720
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 2: I have him with the second highest rated draft behind

721
00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 2: the Jets. I love almost every single one of their picks,

722
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 2: and just from a I also loved the hiring Mike McDonald.

723
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 2: I think they needed to get away from the scheme

724
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:08,439
Speaker 2: that they previously had Underwink and there's gonna be health

725
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,440
Speaker 2: luck here. You gotta remember we talked about this in

726
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:14,240
Speaker 2: the last podcast going into last year. It was Chiefs

727
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 2: Bill's Ravens, Who's gonna come out of the AFC? Well,

728
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 2: what happened with the Ravens. I mean, they have some

729
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:22,959
Speaker 2: of the worst injury luck I've ever seen in my life.

730
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 2: I mean you talk about their entire backfield going down,

731
00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 2: then their offensive line, then your entire secondary. They were

732
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 2: playing games with third fourth string corners and safeties for

733
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 2: a number of games, entire backup secondary. It's enormous. So

734
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:40,400
Speaker 2: I love just the health luck. This schedule could have

735
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:44,920
Speaker 2: been amazing because they played Denver and Tampa, because they

736
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:46,800
Speaker 2: finished in last place by losing the last game. But

737
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 2: Brady came back and then Russ went to Denver, so

738
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 2: it could have been even like you know, without Brady

739
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,399
Speaker 2: and Ross, it would have been just a hammer over

740
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 2: in my opinion, but obviously that's account for the numbers.

741
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 2: So I kind of liked you over, but we're going

742
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 2: to talk about the other teams here. I like what

743
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 2: since He did in the offseason. I like what Cleveland did,

744
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 2: and I'm really low in Pittsburgh. But there's so much

745
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:14,919
Speaker 2: and I don't really want to take a win total

746
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 2: on the Ravens. Like I already talked about this on

747
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:21,640
Speaker 2: our you know, super Bowl pod when we were talking

748
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 2: about futures. I hope some of you followed thirty forty

749
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 2: to one on the Ravens, which I thought was outraged.

750
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:27,239
Speaker 2: Still like them here. I think the twenty two to

751
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 2: twenty five to one you could find. I think it's

752
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 2: think they're gonna be there. The thing that gives me

753
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 2: hesitation about the win total or the division because we

754
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 2: don't know what is gonna happen with the Sean Watson.

755
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 2: That's a massive that you know every team is playing

756
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:41,920
Speaker 2: them twice. The Browns are going to be significantly better

757
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 2: if with a Watson that plays every game, does he

758
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 2: play five? That's a huge unknown. Ro Getell came out

759
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 2: today and said we're wrapping up our UH investigation, but

760
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:53,840
Speaker 2: then we won't have a ruling on the penalty for

761
00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 2: a little bit. So that's what makes the win totals

762
00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 2: and the division bets hard here because one of the four,

763
00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 2: one of the three teams, I think that is a

764
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 2: realistic shot. We don't know, but I do think that

765
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:06,440
Speaker 2: the Browns would be good. They improve their team. The

766
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 2: one win total that I do like in this division

767
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 2: despite the uncertainty with Watson is I don't love it,

768
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:18,360
Speaker 2: but Pittsburgh under I show value and very long on

769
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 2: the Steelers. It's yeah, look at the quarterback situation, look

770
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 2: no further, but I think it's gonna be a rough

771
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:25,560
Speaker 2: year for Pittsburgh in this division and in this conference.

772
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:28,480
Speaker 2: AFC is loaded. I think a flyer on the Ravens.

773
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 2: Hard to bet on the division and the win totals

774
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 2: with the Browns, Bengals and Ravens because I think the

775
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 2: status of Watson is so critical and we just don't know.

776
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 3: Let me ask you this about the Ravens and then

777
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,680
Speaker 3: we'll move on. What do you think of the wide

778
00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:46,759
Speaker 3: receiver situation? Obviously it would be a lot more dire

779
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 3: if they didn't have Mark Andrews, one of the best

780
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:52,400
Speaker 3: pass catching tight ends, maybe the best now in the league.

781
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 3: But I mean, you trade Mark's Brown and now you

782
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 3: know you're counting on Baitman to be that number one guy.

783
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:02,120
Speaker 3: I thought, you know, that's a scheme wise defense has

784
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 3: really started figuring out how to scheme effectively against Lamar

785
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:11,479
Speaker 3: Jackson last year, and so I'm just I don't feel

786
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 3: great about the fact that, like it's Rashaan Bateman, Devin

787
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:16,279
Speaker 3: Duvernet and James Proche at the top of that at

788
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:18,919
Speaker 3: the top of that depth chart is just is gonna

789
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:21,479
Speaker 3: make this team kind of like one of those under

790
00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:23,399
Speaker 3: teams that just has a great defense and like does

791
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:25,840
Speaker 3: enough running the ball or what do you think of

792
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:28,200
Speaker 3: the offense, you know, without without Brown?

793
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it'll be interesting to see how they

794
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 2: use either Likely or Kohler, who I loved in college.

795
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:36,919
Speaker 2: I don't know what they're gonna plan on the draft

796
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 2: of two tight ends. You already have Nick Foyle's important

797
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 2: in the blocking for running, and then you already have

798
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 2: one of the best of Mark Andrews. What are they

799
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:45,920
Speaker 2: planning with all these tight ends using some draft resources

800
00:37:45,960 --> 00:37:50,799
Speaker 2: on them? But I do think that will probably hold

801
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 2: them back unless what do they do in twenty twelve

802
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 2: what kind of put them over the hump? And who

803
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 2: was she huge? And so many key possession like third

804
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:07,760
Speaker 2: down I need to catch. You're really gonna trust Bateman

805
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 2: And they went out and got Bolden and he was Ankuon.

806
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 2: Bolden was absolutely massive that year. I think they need

807
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 2: to sign a veteran receiver they need to get and

808
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 2: I think that if they do, I think that they

809
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 2: know that. I think if they do, it will make

810
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 2: a world of a difference. There's no team that can.

811
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:28,520
Speaker 2: You don't need to go get a superstar receiver. You

812
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:31,800
Speaker 2: need to get someone that's a reliable, veteran possession receiver

813
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 2: because as of right now, that is a massive hole.

814
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 2: And I think it's going to hold them back. But

815
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,720
Speaker 2: I think they know that and we'll address it somehow,

816
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:44,279
Speaker 2: is what I'm counting on, maybe during the season or

817
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 2: before the season. But you're right, that's the biggest question

818
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:49,400
Speaker 2: because right now in a passing league, and I know

819
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,760
Speaker 2: that the Ravens are a running team, but ultimately, especially

820
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:54,800
Speaker 2: once you get into the playoffs, right and the scout

821
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 2: is even stronger and you have a full season of

822
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,399
Speaker 2: tape because you know they're gonna have some nuances, they're

823
00:38:59,440 --> 00:39:02,720
Speaker 2: gonna add some wrinkles right with how they're using Jackson.

824
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:04,759
Speaker 2: But by the time the playoffs come, it's like, okay,

825
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 2: we have eight you've eight seventeen games of tape and

826
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 2: this is what you're doing, and the scout are so

827
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 2: much stronger and you're playing really good. You're gonna have

828
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 2: to throw the ball and right now you're receiving corps

829
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:17,360
Speaker 2: Is Bateman, Duberne and Prochet I think are the projected starters.

830
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 2: That's scary. So yeah, they need to address it. I agree,

831
00:39:19,320 --> 00:39:20,879
Speaker 2: that's what we'll hold them back if they don't.

832
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:24,399
Speaker 3: The Ravens could be better at wide receiver if they can,

833
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:26,279
Speaker 3: you know, and they're not too many veterans on the

834
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:28,319
Speaker 3: market that could change it. But you know, maybe they

835
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:30,640
Speaker 3: chang they trade for somebody. They've been aggressive in trades

836
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 3: in the past. But Marquise Brown only average eleven yards

837
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:36,279
Speaker 3: per catch last year. Not a crazy, you know, third

838
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 3: down threat either. So even though you think of him,

839
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 3: you know all the Spiels talent deep threat, he wasn't

840
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 3: really a deep threat and he's not a great third

841
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:48,879
Speaker 3: down guy. So conceivably you could get better at wide

842
00:39:48,880 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 3: receiver if you trade or signed the right, guy, Bateman

843
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:54,960
Speaker 3: would be a year two. So I do like the Ravens,

844
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:57,399
Speaker 3: you know, twenty to to one for the super Bowl,

845
00:39:57,480 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 3: twelve to one for the conference. I think the division

846
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:02,080
Speaker 3: intriguing even at plus two ten where it is now,

847
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:04,880
Speaker 3: just because you're still getting plus money on a very

848
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 3: high quality team that I believe you said you're over

849
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 3: a win higher on their win total right then where

850
00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 3: it's at, So you know, I think the Ravens futures

851
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 3: are intriguing even right now with the uncertainty with Deshaun.

852
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 1: I agree with you, but let's let's move on. We'll

853
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:21,160
Speaker 1: go a little quicker through the rest.

854
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I will say just Bengals Bengals Stents want to hear.

855
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:25,799
Speaker 2: There's a lot of hate out. I mean they're out. Hey,

856
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:27,359
Speaker 2: let's sell the Bengals. They were kind of lucky lest

857
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:28,800
Speaker 2: year they were in their division. But I like what

858
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 2: they did in the draft, and I like what they

859
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:33,239
Speaker 2: did on the offensive line in the off season. So

860
00:40:33,520 --> 00:40:35,319
Speaker 2: I project, you know, the win tub is like under

861
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 2: ten Jos, I'm at ten point one, so would lean

862
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 2: over there. But again, Watson uncertainty. I like the brown

863
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 2: I like what the Browns did bringing in Cooper, some

864
00:40:42,800 --> 00:40:45,200
Speaker 2: of their drafts, their deep. They were unlucky last year

865
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 2: in a number of ways. If Watson plays, they're scary too.

866
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,040
Speaker 2: Top of this division, just like the top of the

867
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 2: entire seat is loaded. But I do like what the

868
00:40:53,160 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 2: Bengals did.

869
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:57,239
Speaker 1: So yeah, let's move on, all right, Let's go to

870
00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:02,840
Speaker 1: the UH the AFC. So we got the Colts and

871
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:06,320
Speaker 1: I'm usually fading the coach this time of year, but

872
00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:09,759
Speaker 1: you know, a lot kind of has happened even since

873
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,120
Speaker 1: last time we talked, just in terms of looking at

874
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 1: this schedule, they have the thirty easiest strength of schedule

875
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:16,759
Speaker 1: in terms of opposing win totals. You know, I liked

876
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:17,799
Speaker 1: the moves they made.

877
00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:21,319
Speaker 3: I think losing Carson Weentz is auditioned by subtraction. Matt Ryan,

878
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:24,160
Speaker 3: I think should be better than Wentz was kind of

879
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:26,520
Speaker 3: hearkens back to that Philip Rivers season they had a

880
00:41:26,520 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 3: couple of years ago. I liked the addition to to

881
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:33,720
Speaker 3: find Gilmore at corner, Roddy McLoud at safety, and Ghakway

882
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 3: probably not gonna move to Needle at this point.

883
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 1: I don't know.

884
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:38,800
Speaker 3: He just wasn't very good last year, but the schedule

885
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 3: was so easy and they you know, they did kind

886
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:44,439
Speaker 3: of underachieve their pythagoraon win total last year by over

887
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:46,959
Speaker 3: a win and a half. So they had ten point

888
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 3: six for the Pythagonon wins and went nine and eight.

889
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:51,920
Speaker 3: Obviously collapsed down the stretch. This team could have easily

890
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 3: been and ten and seven or eleven and six last year.

891
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 3: And I think the roster got a little bit better.

892
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 3: I like the kid out at Pierce that they drafted.

893
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:03,280
Speaker 3: I think you could come in and start.

894
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 1: Now, you know, they'd still I think still need help.

895
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 3: A pass catcher. Pittman would be better suited as like

896
00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 3: a high end number two guy. But overall, I can't

897
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:15,680
Speaker 3: say they're worse than last year. They did lose eber Flus,

898
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:18,080
Speaker 3: But I don't know, what do you think? Because I

899
00:42:18,239 --> 00:42:19,840
Speaker 3: feel a little better about the Coast than I have

900
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 3: in probably the past two years.

901
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 2: Hey, you're on the Colts. What is going on?

902
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 1: Yeah?

903
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 2: I mean there are win totals, what under ten?

904
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 1: Nine and a half? It's nine a half that at

905
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:31,879
Speaker 1: draftings at minus.

906
00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:33,800
Speaker 2: One thirty to the over so yeah, so it's in

907
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:35,160
Speaker 2: between nine and a half and ten, which is where

908
00:42:35,160 --> 00:42:37,239
Speaker 2: I have them. I projected nine point seven wins. A

909
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:39,120
Speaker 2: lot of that is to do with their division. I

910
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 2: have them with like the sixth or and maybe the

911
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:45,200
Speaker 2: seventh or eighth easiest strike the schedule, because look at

912
00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:48,600
Speaker 2: your division. I think the biggest thing, you know, obviously

913
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,759
Speaker 2: going from Wentz to Ryan is an upgrade. How much

914
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:53,560
Speaker 2: we'll see what does Ryan have left in the tank.

915
00:42:53,560 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 2: I think going to a better offensive line situation will

916
00:42:56,280 --> 00:43:01,399
Speaker 2: help him. The Titans got worse, you know, I think

917
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:04,360
Speaker 2: you know, you could argue with Okay, we wanted the

918
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:06,520
Speaker 2: trade a G. Brown. We went and got Traylon Burks

919
00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:09,920
Speaker 2: in the draft. But they're worse this year than they

920
00:43:09,960 --> 00:43:13,560
Speaker 2: were last year in my opinion, and it's not a

921
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:15,840
Speaker 2: great division. So that's working in the Colts table. They're clearly,

922
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 2: I think the best team in this division. I don't

923
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 2: think the world's better than Tennessee, but I think that

924
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:23,880
Speaker 2: they're I can say with the confidence that I think

925
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 2: they're the best team in this division. I am worried

926
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:27,799
Speaker 2: about the defense though, guests to the who they brought

927
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:31,279
Speaker 2: in a defensive coordinator that is not the I think

928
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 2: the path that you want to go in this league

929
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:37,000
Speaker 2: right now with Gus Bradley, So that that scares me now,

930
00:43:37,040 --> 00:43:39,000
Speaker 2: I know, playing zone with Gilmore, I think is Gilmore

931
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:40,840
Speaker 2: is getting older, he can't really be like that lockdown

932
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:42,879
Speaker 2: man corner. I think that'll be kind of a fit.

933
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 2: But we'll see what happens with Bradley and I do.

934
00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 2: I really did like Iberflues from a scheme perspective. But yeah,

935
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:55,319
Speaker 2: this team should win the division, but it's a it's

936
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:58,759
Speaker 2: a I didn't like their draft first of all. So

937
00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 2: you like Pierce, I can see it. He's got the

938
00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:04,799
Speaker 2: tools and the frame and which I think is gonna

939
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:06,920
Speaker 2: help them here. But overall I didn't love the draft.

940
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:09,480
Speaker 2: What do you I think the biggest wild card in

941
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:11,799
Speaker 2: this division? Because the Texans I think we would both

942
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 2: agree and almost everyone would agree they're gonna suck this year.

943
00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:18,239
Speaker 2: There's not you can't really, you can't really make any case.

944
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:19,959
Speaker 2: You know, we were talking about everyone is rosy about

945
00:44:19,960 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 2: every team, No, no one is. That's the one. That's

946
00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:27,080
Speaker 2: the one exception. Jacksonville. You know we talked about Urban's

947
00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:30,160
Speaker 2: gone that whole fiasco. What can we expect the big

948
00:44:30,239 --> 00:44:34,000
Speaker 2: jump from Trevor Lwrence if so? You know Jacksonville, what

949
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:38,200
Speaker 2: their their win total is like over six juiced. Sadly,

950
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:41,399
Speaker 2: I haven't projected like five eight, five to nine would

951
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:42,920
Speaker 2: lean under, but not enough value to bet it. But

952
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:44,880
Speaker 2: they're an intriguing We did that. I did this last year.

953
00:44:44,880 --> 00:44:47,080
Speaker 2: It didn't work out, but they're intriguing that for this

954
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:49,880
Speaker 2: division because I think Tennessee is significantly weaker and if

955
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:52,359
Speaker 2: a couple of things go wrong with the Colts, I mean,

956
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:55,200
Speaker 2: Jacksonville could win this division with eight nine wins potentially,

957
00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 2: so I think that may be the look there. But yeah,

958
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 2: it's just that this is the the soft spot of

959
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:02,160
Speaker 2: the A sc for sure.

960
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:04,879
Speaker 1: Having one of the easiest schedules for this team helps

961
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 1: a lot because and you also have, you know, Matt

962
00:45:06,760 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 1: Ryan playing indoors. That's that's you know, continuing.

963
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:11,160
Speaker 3: It's not like Matt Ryan's going to some random, you know,

964
00:45:11,640 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 3: cold weather team or you know, we have to play

965
00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:14,439
Speaker 3: outdoors all the time.

966
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:18,040
Speaker 1: So I think, you know, for what they're doing, I

967
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:18,880
Speaker 1: think they'll be okay.

968
00:45:19,520 --> 00:45:22,879
Speaker 3: I don't think Matt Ryan is a choker with Carson

969
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:24,800
Speaker 3: wentz Is in the same way, although he was behind

970
00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:26,279
Speaker 3: that twenty eight to three games, so who knows.

971
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 1: But yeah, I just think this.

972
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 3: Coach team, they were better last year than they got

973
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:32,960
Speaker 3: than they showed in their record. The best team in

974
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:35,319
Speaker 3: his division, the Titans. I mean you lost a J Brown,

975
00:45:35,480 --> 00:45:37,800
Speaker 3: Julio Jones, even wats Ferkster. So you have like a

976
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:41,360
Speaker 3: whole new receiving corps essentially, and you don't get a

977
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:43,480
Speaker 3: lot of reps because it's it's Ryan Tannehill and this.

978
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 3: You know, run every offense with Henry. But he's finally

979
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:49,280
Speaker 3: showed you know that he's not like completely in human

980
00:45:49,360 --> 00:45:51,600
Speaker 3: because he got injured last year and you know as

981
00:45:51,680 --> 00:45:52,799
Speaker 3: he kind of eight.

982
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:54,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I was up to carry.

983
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:57,360
Speaker 3: This is the age when running backs start declining a

984
00:45:57,400 --> 00:46:02,279
Speaker 3: little more sunningly. You know, you use the day to

985
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:04,400
Speaker 3: pick on a quarterback that you're probably not going to

986
00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 3: play in year one, So that not like a wasted

987
00:46:06,640 --> 00:46:10,759
Speaker 3: pick necessarily, but you know another guy that could have

988
00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 3: helped that now you don't have. Treylan Burks is just

989
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 3: a downgrade from AJ Brown.

990
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 1: What did he do?

991
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:19,399
Speaker 3: Couldn't even pass the conditioning test in his first try

992
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 3: or something like that. You know, another guy like you're

993
00:46:22,560 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 3: not hearing great things about early on in camp, which

994
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:30,359
Speaker 3: is not a good sign. So yeah, that's really why

995
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 3: I'm a lot higher on the Coats than I was,

996
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 3: you know last time we talked a month or so ago.

997
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:35,879
Speaker 1: Is because I think the Titans got a lot worse.

998
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 3: Usually you could count on the Titans to be to

999
00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 3: kind of surprise people and out you know, overachieved.

1000
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:43,680
Speaker 1: But they overachieved last year twelve and five of the

1001
00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:45,600
Speaker 1: pottaga in win total of ten point two.

1002
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 3: Now it's at nine, and if if they get to nine,

1003
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:52,279
Speaker 3: it's going to be you know, probably off the strength

1004
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:55,240
Speaker 3: of the Texans and Jaguars alone. This year, they still

1005
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:57,560
Speaker 3: have one of the harder schedules in the league. So

1006
00:46:57,640 --> 00:46:59,759
Speaker 3: the coach have the third easiest according up Post and

1007
00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 3: Winter Tennessee's got at twenty first, so like they're not

1008
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 3: benefiting in the same way. And the part of that

1009
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:07,000
Speaker 3: is because they went twelve and five and one at

1010
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 3: the division last year. So yeah, I'm I'm a lot

1011
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:12,120
Speaker 3: lower on the Titans than I was, you know, heading into.

1012
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:13,400
Speaker 1: The draft Jacksonville.

1013
00:47:13,440 --> 00:47:15,680
Speaker 3: I think people every year it's just people project too

1014
00:47:15,719 --> 00:47:17,919
Speaker 3: much of a step forward for them, like they're gonna

1015
00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:21,919
Speaker 3: be better. They added Kirk, They added Brandon Sheriff at guard,

1016
00:47:22,080 --> 00:47:24,800
Speaker 3: Darius Williams the corner, though he wasn't that great. The coach,

1017
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:29,160
Speaker 3: you know, should help in Peterson Trayvon Walker not necessarily

1018
00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:31,800
Speaker 3: my favorite number one overall pick, but should still.

1019
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:34,000
Speaker 1: Help, you know, so they'll be better.

1020
00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:37,480
Speaker 3: But you know, now they're win totals six to you know,

1021
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:40,760
Speaker 3: if you're betting the over, they got it to seven wins.

1022
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:42,839
Speaker 3: I don't see this as a seven win team yet.

1023
00:47:44,320 --> 00:47:47,040
Speaker 3: And then Houston, you know you mentioned it. They're four

1024
00:47:47,080 --> 00:47:49,000
Speaker 3: and a half is the win total, and I'd still

1025
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 3: go under. They had four point one Pythagora wins. Last

1026
00:47:51,640 --> 00:47:53,719
Speaker 3: year they went four and thirteen. They'll probably be lucky

1027
00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:54,279
Speaker 3: to do that again.

1028
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:55,840
Speaker 1: They didn't. Really it's Davis Mills.

1029
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:58,520
Speaker 3: I mean, he wasn't the worst thing, but he's not

1030
00:47:58,719 --> 00:48:02,120
Speaker 3: anywhere near the top even twenty quarterback in this league.

1031
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:06,160
Speaker 3: So yeah, Faden, the Texans fading, fading, fading pretty much,

1032
00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:07,719
Speaker 3: just get.

1033
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:11,360
Speaker 2: Five to or even a reduced five on Houston. It

1034
00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:14,920
Speaker 2: seems not winning six games. And yeah, if you want

1035
00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:17,759
Speaker 2: to take a flyer on Jacksonville, go for. But yeah,

1036
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:23,279
Speaker 2: I show value on let's say the under, not enough

1037
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:25,640
Speaker 2: to bet any of them, but I show value on

1038
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:28,880
Speaker 2: the under, so maybe I'll end up doing it on

1039
00:48:28,960 --> 00:48:30,399
Speaker 2: one or two of these teams on every single team

1040
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 2: in this division.

1041
00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:34,320
Speaker 3: I just want to let you guys know that Sleeper

1042
00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:38,320
Speaker 3: is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions of players.

1043
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 1: You probably already have a fantasy league on there. I

1044
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:42,319
Speaker 1: use it for mine.

1045
00:48:42,400 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 3: It's a game changing product unlike anything else in the industry.

1046
00:48:46,520 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 3: And now you could win on Sleeper by playing their

1047
00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:51,040
Speaker 3: new over under game.

1048
00:48:51,160 --> 00:48:54,360
Speaker 1: It's super simple. First, in any sport, choose two.

1049
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:57,120
Speaker 3: Or more players that you like and pick they're over

1050
00:48:57,680 --> 00:49:02,200
Speaker 3: or under for example number of points in basketball or

1051
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:05,480
Speaker 3: amount of hits in baseball. Then you choose the amount

1052
00:49:05,520 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 3: of money you want to enter into the contest. If

1053
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 3: you pick correctly, you can win anywhere from two to

1054
00:49:10,719 --> 00:49:14,719
Speaker 3: over twenty times the money that you put in. And

1055
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 3: the main reason I'm excited about over under on Sleeper

1056
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:19,480
Speaker 3: is that it's the only app where I can join

1057
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:22,720
Speaker 3: my buddies contest and play together. It's got a built

1058
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 3: in group chat where I can see and copy my

1059
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:27,160
Speaker 3: friends picks with the tap.

1060
00:49:27,040 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 1: Of a button. It's insanely fun to ride it out together.

1061
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 3: So stop what you're doing and download Sleeper now to

1062
00:49:34,760 --> 00:49:37,760
Speaker 3: play their new over undergame. Have fun with your friends

1063
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:41,680
Speaker 3: and make some money on your mobile phone. Join our

1064
00:49:41,719 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 3: listener group on Sleeper at sleeper dot com slash action,

1065
00:49:46,680 --> 00:49:49,680
Speaker 3: and Sleeper will automatically match your first deposit up to

1066
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:55,000
Speaker 3: one hundred dollars. Again, go to sleeper dot com slash

1067
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 3: action and you'll get a one hundred dollars match on

1068
00:49:58,239 --> 00:50:01,680
Speaker 3: your first deposit. Terms that can conditions apply. See Sleeper's

1069
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:05,919
Speaker 3: terms of use for details. Let's let's jump to AFC

1070
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:08,719
Speaker 3: West because this is this is the division that I

1071
00:50:08,800 --> 00:50:11,160
Speaker 3: want to talk about the most. I think everyone wants

1072
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:13,040
Speaker 3: to talk about the most. So let's let's go team

1073
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 3: by team here. We won't even we'll go in depth

1074
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:18,680
Speaker 3: with each team. Kansas City, let's start there. The win

1075
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 3: total is ten and a half. They had eleven point

1076
00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:23,279
Speaker 3: two Pythagonaal wins last year, but they went at twelve

1077
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:25,640
Speaker 3: and five. Andy Reid first time. He didn't go over

1078
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:27,360
Speaker 3: as winning total with the Chiefs last year. If you

1079
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:29,600
Speaker 3: got it at twelve and a half, if you got

1080
00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:33,280
Speaker 3: it at twelve obviously pushed. But Trent McDuffie at corner

1081
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:37,600
Speaker 3: in the first round, and then George carloftis edge player.

1082
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:39,840
Speaker 1: Then you got Sky Moore in the second round at

1083
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 1: wide receiver. Good value there.

1084
00:50:42,080 --> 00:50:44,560
Speaker 3: I think it was like what like the fourteenth or

1085
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:47,880
Speaker 3: fifteenth receiver taken when a lot of big boards, including

1086
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:50,200
Speaker 3: had him a lot higher than that at wide receiver

1087
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:53,239
Speaker 3: at least, So I think that was good value. Brian

1088
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:54,960
Speaker 3: Cook a safety. They get the end of the second round,

1089
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:57,640
Speaker 3: so they have four picks in the first two rounds. Now,

1090
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:01,440
Speaker 3: that's the good news. The bad news is they lose

1091
00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:05,400
Speaker 3: Tyreek Hill, They lose Tyron Matthew. They do add Smith Schuster,

1092
00:51:05,560 --> 00:51:09,880
Speaker 3: they do add Valdez Scanting at receiver. They have the

1093
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:14,280
Speaker 3: hardest strength of schedule in the league according to opposing

1094
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:17,960
Speaker 3: win totals. So I mean, given all of this, like,

1095
00:51:18,239 --> 00:51:20,400
Speaker 3: how do you kind of judge where the Chiefs are

1096
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 3: gonna end up in this loaded AFC West?

1097
00:51:27,360 --> 00:51:31,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, fascinating division. I mean every team you could argue

1098
00:51:31,640 --> 00:51:35,120
Speaker 2: that Chiefs got worse. You know, you lose war, you

1099
00:51:35,360 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 2: you're gonna get the're pragaging at the count McDuffie coming

1100
00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:39,080
Speaker 2: in and starting. I would assume I actually liked their

1101
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 2: draft overall. How important was Tyreek kill is the question?

1102
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:45,160
Speaker 2: What happened with Mahomes at times last year and including

1103
00:51:45,440 --> 00:51:50,919
Speaker 2: most importantly the second half of that Bengals game. Yeah,

1104
00:51:51,000 --> 00:51:53,000
Speaker 2: But like you look at the the Broncos, they bring

1105
00:51:53,080 --> 00:51:55,880
Speaker 2: in Russ. You look at the Raiders, you know they

1106
00:51:56,000 --> 00:52:00,960
Speaker 2: bring in arguably the best receiver in the NFL. You

1107
00:52:01,000 --> 00:52:03,560
Speaker 2: look at the Chargers, I think one of the best

1108
00:52:03,600 --> 00:52:06,640
Speaker 2: teams in the AFC. The division is absolutely lo So

1109
00:52:06,680 --> 00:52:08,960
Speaker 2: if you look, I have the Chiefs with the toughest schedule,

1110
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:12,960
Speaker 2: the Raiders with the third toughest, the Chargers with the

1111
00:52:13,040 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 2: seventh toughest, and the Broncos with the twelfth. So the

1112
00:52:18,120 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 2: Broncos do have these schedule, but it's so natices because

1113
00:52:20,200 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 2: you're playing these other teams six times. So I you know,

1114
00:52:23,200 --> 00:52:25,839
Speaker 2: I have the Chiefs power ated as the best team

1115
00:52:26,280 --> 00:52:30,239
Speaker 2: in this division, Chargers second them not really be far

1116
00:52:30,320 --> 00:52:32,520
Speaker 2: behind at all, Broncos and then the Raiders. But all

1117
00:52:32,520 --> 00:52:36,120
Speaker 2: of these teams I have as above average. They're not

1118
00:52:36,320 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 2: that far apart. It wouldn't shock me if any one

1119
00:52:38,520 --> 00:52:41,440
Speaker 2: of these teams really won the division this year. I

1120
00:52:41,440 --> 00:52:42,879
Speaker 2: think they're gonna beat up on each other, They're gonna

1121
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:46,800
Speaker 2: cannibalize other probably gonna come down to injury luck, close

1122
00:52:46,880 --> 00:52:50,080
Speaker 2: game luck. So I don't want to take any shot,

1123
00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:51,319
Speaker 2: and if I was gonna take shot in this vision

1124
00:52:51,360 --> 00:52:54,719
Speaker 2: would take I would take the longas odds. But trying

1125
00:52:54,760 --> 00:52:56,600
Speaker 2: to figure out into these win totals that the Chiefs

1126
00:52:56,600 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 2: are ten and a half, I project ten point two.

1127
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:01,480
Speaker 2: So I think the Chiefs are going to be good.

1128
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:03,880
Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna be as good as last year.

1129
00:53:03,960 --> 00:53:05,880
Speaker 2: But with Mahomes, he always gives you a shot. But

1130
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:08,719
Speaker 2: it's the evolution of this offense. Where does it go? Now? Right?

1131
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:11,320
Speaker 2: They were last year they were trying, we know what

1132
00:53:11,560 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 2: Mahomes can do with Pete Mahomes, but they were trying

1133
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:18,040
Speaker 2: to figure out, Okay, the league's adjusted and you saw

1134
00:53:18,160 --> 00:53:22,080
Speaker 2: flashes at times and then you said wait and it

1135
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:24,399
Speaker 2: was head scratching. So I trying to figure out where

1136
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:26,040
Speaker 2: this Chiefs offense is gonna go. So we know the

1137
00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:28,040
Speaker 2: defense is gonna be great. They have so much money

1138
00:53:28,080 --> 00:53:30,320
Speaker 2: locked up in Mahomes and you lose Hill, so figuring

1139
00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:33,920
Speaker 2: that out, figuring out what Russ do you get? Is

1140
00:53:34,000 --> 00:53:36,279
Speaker 2: Russ had a decline or was he just you know,

1141
00:53:36,400 --> 00:53:40,160
Speaker 2: in an awful situation dealing with injuries last year? What

1142
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 2: are we gonna get with Russ? And how much does

1143
00:53:42,719 --> 00:53:47,560
Speaker 2: DeVante Adams improve the Raiders and you know, the Chargers,

1144
00:53:48,480 --> 00:53:50,520
Speaker 2: I think that they got better overall at the roster.

1145
00:53:50,600 --> 00:53:54,320
Speaker 2: We've seen what Herbert can do. Absolutely fascinating division. I

1146
00:53:54,400 --> 00:53:56,839
Speaker 2: think it's hard to call. It's also hard to call,

1147
00:53:56,920 --> 00:53:59,120
Speaker 2: like one of these teams is we're gonna get left

1148
00:53:59,120 --> 00:54:04,560
Speaker 2: out of the playoffs most likely, so maybe two. This

1149
00:54:04,680 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 2: is division I think is close to impossible to predict.

1150
00:54:08,440 --> 00:54:10,960
Speaker 2: I think everything is priced pretty fairly. If I had to,

1151
00:54:11,040 --> 00:54:12,560
Speaker 2: I'd fade the Chiefs. I'd take a shot like the

1152
00:54:12,680 --> 00:54:15,000
Speaker 2: Raiders to win the division. What do you see them here?

1153
00:54:16,160 --> 00:54:22,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I really worry about the the Chiefs because I

1154
00:54:22,800 --> 00:54:26,759
Speaker 3: think Mahomes is obviously excellent, but losing Tyreek ho it

1155
00:54:26,880 --> 00:54:30,799
Speaker 3: doesn't just change you know, obviously you're getting you're losing

1156
00:54:30,920 --> 00:54:33,000
Speaker 3: over a thousand yards and a bunch of touchdowns and

1157
00:54:33,160 --> 00:54:35,520
Speaker 3: just that, but you're also changing just how defenses play

1158
00:54:35,600 --> 00:54:38,720
Speaker 3: you now, and we already saw teams even with Tyreek

1159
00:54:38,760 --> 00:54:41,719
Speaker 3: and Kelsey healthy teams kind of figured out how to

1160
00:54:41,719 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 3: play the Chiefs Now. It's a supporting cast overall, a

1161
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:48,279
Speaker 3: little bit stronger, like probably because you have Juju, you

1162
00:54:48,400 --> 00:54:51,080
Speaker 3: have you know, mvs. I think it's still an upgrade

1163
00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:55,719
Speaker 3: on like DeMarcus Robinson. You know, you're gonna have Sky Moore,

1164
00:54:55,760 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 3: You're gonna have like I think, like when you're going

1165
00:54:58,560 --> 00:55:01,080
Speaker 3: down to like the fourth spot, the wide receiver depth chart,

1166
00:55:01,280 --> 00:55:04,440
Speaker 3: it's stronger than it was in years past. But at

1167
00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:06,920
Speaker 3: the end of the day, now you're focusing on Kelsey,

1168
00:55:07,000 --> 00:55:09,080
Speaker 3: he's you know, at the on the wrong side of thirty.

1169
00:55:10,160 --> 00:55:12,920
Speaker 3: So I think they're gonna be easier to defend, and

1170
00:55:13,360 --> 00:55:15,279
Speaker 3: they're gonna want to spread the ball around around a

1171
00:55:15,320 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 3: little more. But now you know, like Marcus Valdez Scantling,

1172
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:21,560
Speaker 3: I mean, Aaron Rodgers was having MVP seasons and Valdez

1173
00:55:21,560 --> 00:55:23,640
Speaker 3: Scantling was still kind of you know, he wasn't putting

1174
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:25,279
Speaker 3: up great numbers. He had a couple of good games

1175
00:55:25,320 --> 00:55:27,919
Speaker 3: here and there, but I just think it's gonna be tough.

1176
00:55:28,120 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 3: And then on defense you mentioned, I think, you know,

1177
00:55:30,280 --> 00:55:31,080
Speaker 3: they're not gonna be great.

1178
00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:31,960
Speaker 1: They never really are.

1179
00:55:32,080 --> 00:55:35,000
Speaker 3: They They kind of kind of find find themselves waiting

1180
00:55:35,040 --> 00:55:38,560
Speaker 3: the season sometimes. But you don't have Tyron Matthew. You're

1181
00:55:38,600 --> 00:55:41,960
Speaker 3: relying on McDuffie at the most tremvarious ward as well,

1182
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:44,040
Speaker 3: who was playing really well for them. So now you're

1183
00:55:44,080 --> 00:55:47,120
Speaker 3: relying probably on McDuffie at corner sooner than you want

1184
00:55:47,200 --> 00:55:50,120
Speaker 3: to play big snaps. You know, you're relying on a

1185
00:55:50,200 --> 00:55:52,000
Speaker 3: rookie edge rusher in Karl loftus to give them a

1186
00:55:52,040 --> 00:55:55,360
Speaker 3: boost as well, and you know you might be relying

1187
00:55:55,400 --> 00:55:57,080
Speaker 3: on a rookie receiver in sky Moore.

1188
00:55:57,160 --> 00:55:58,960
Speaker 2: And I think they need to hit.

1189
00:55:59,400 --> 00:56:00,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, they really need to make.

1190
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:07,080
Speaker 3: Nicole Hartman didn't really hit, So, like, you know, it

1191
00:56:07,200 --> 00:56:10,120
Speaker 3: looks like maybe it's it's a lower.

1192
00:56:09,960 --> 00:56:11,640
Speaker 1: Ceiling team than it has been a years past.

1193
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:13,719
Speaker 3: I mean, the floor is still incredibly high because you

1194
00:56:13,760 --> 00:56:16,400
Speaker 3: have Patrick Mahomes and you have Andy Reid, so the

1195
00:56:16,480 --> 00:56:20,640
Speaker 3: floor is high. But I can't really get behind the

1196
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:24,960
Speaker 3: Chiefs in any meaningful way. They overachieved last year, even

1197
00:56:25,000 --> 00:56:26,799
Speaker 3: going twelve and five, even though they did go under

1198
00:56:26,840 --> 00:56:28,920
Speaker 3: that wind total at twelve and a half, their Pythagora

1199
00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:31,160
Speaker 3: win total was only eleven point two. And that's why

1200
00:56:31,200 --> 00:56:32,560
Speaker 3: you're seeing it at ten and a half this year,

1201
00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:35,239
Speaker 3: and considering that the division also got you know, they

1202
00:56:35,280 --> 00:56:38,160
Speaker 3: got worse and the division got a lot better.

1203
00:56:38,400 --> 00:56:41,879
Speaker 1: So the Chiefs are not a team I'm trying to invest.

1204
00:56:41,640 --> 00:56:45,680
Speaker 3: In, unless you know, like the hype just gets overwhelming

1205
00:56:45,719 --> 00:56:47,440
Speaker 3: on the Chargers and Broncos, and we see, you know,

1206
00:56:47,440 --> 00:56:48,719
Speaker 3: a lot better value on a Chief.

1207
00:56:49,800 --> 00:56:50,759
Speaker 1: I can't get behind it.

1208
00:56:50,880 --> 00:56:54,000
Speaker 2: Let's go to Broncosch's finally way chief says you need

1209
00:56:54,080 --> 00:56:56,440
Speaker 2: to I think you could be right there again, and

1210
00:56:56,680 --> 00:57:00,240
Speaker 2: you could be regardless, but Chiefs will be elite again.

1211
00:57:01,040 --> 00:57:03,880
Speaker 2: It's they need all they need rookies at three important

1212
00:57:03,880 --> 00:57:06,399
Speaker 2: positions to hit up. Yeah, which is which is huge

1213
00:57:06,440 --> 00:57:09,799
Speaker 2: at d end, corner and receiver. Those are the three

1214
00:57:09,840 --> 00:57:12,720
Speaker 2: positions to watch and then obviously how this offensive olves.

1215
00:57:12,719 --> 00:57:15,200
Speaker 3: But again, yeah, and I should say they're not like

1216
00:57:15,280 --> 00:57:16,800
Speaker 3: that's not out of the question, Like they have a

1217
00:57:16,880 --> 00:57:19,040
Speaker 3: lot of great homegrown talent that they found in the

1218
00:57:19,120 --> 00:57:22,080
Speaker 3: draft over the years. So but like you know, it's

1219
00:57:22,120 --> 00:57:25,160
Speaker 3: still it's just such a little division that investing in

1220
00:57:25,280 --> 00:57:28,360
Speaker 3: it is tough to say to recommend at this point.

1221
00:57:29,040 --> 00:57:32,240
Speaker 3: All Right, Broncos Nick Bonito is the only Day one,

1222
00:57:32,360 --> 00:57:35,960
Speaker 3: Day two pick, uh, you know, outside linebacker. But the

1223
00:57:36,040 --> 00:57:38,880
Speaker 3: big news they add Russell Wilson, a quarterback. The schedules

1224
00:57:38,920 --> 00:57:41,080
Speaker 3: the middle of the pack, their win totals up to ten,

1225
00:57:41,840 --> 00:57:45,640
Speaker 3: somewhat juice to the over they they were always seven

1226
00:57:45,680 --> 00:57:47,400
Speaker 3: and ten last year, but they were an eight point

1227
00:57:47,480 --> 00:57:50,080
Speaker 3: nine win team according to their margin of victory, so

1228
00:57:50,120 --> 00:57:52,840
Speaker 3: they you know, essentially their win total jumped one win.

1229
00:57:53,080 --> 00:57:55,120
Speaker 3: It looks like it jumped three wins, but it really,

1230
00:57:55,720 --> 00:57:57,720
Speaker 3: you know, all things considered, jump more like one win

1231
00:57:58,520 --> 00:58:00,440
Speaker 3: considering they were like a nine win team last year.

1232
00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:05,520
Speaker 3: And I've always said it, the Broncos roster is pretty

1233
00:58:05,520 --> 00:58:09,080
Speaker 3: elite outside the quarterback position. And now they got the

1234
00:58:09,160 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 3: quarterback they gave up you know, Shelby Harris and Fan

1235
00:58:12,200 --> 00:58:14,040
Speaker 3: and some some things. I still think tight end will

1236
00:58:14,040 --> 00:58:16,800
Speaker 3: be fine with Okawe bu Nam and they drafted dul

1237
00:58:16,840 --> 00:58:18,760
Speaker 3: such as well. So I mean, I don't know, this

1238
00:58:18,840 --> 00:58:20,480
Speaker 3: is the hype team. The Broncos are like the team

1239
00:58:20,520 --> 00:58:22,600
Speaker 3: with all the hype. What are you seeing here?

1240
00:58:23,960 --> 00:58:29,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's arguably the most complete roster, like both sides

1241
00:58:29,600 --> 00:58:32,040
Speaker 2: of the ball in the NFL. It's close. Like just

1242
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:35,560
Speaker 2: if you look positioned by position, it's up there. Now

1243
00:58:35,640 --> 00:58:37,760
Speaker 2: you had Gregory, don't forget about that. I think that

1244
00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:42,920
Speaker 2: was a big signing. You know, certain really flashed. Like

1245
00:58:43,160 --> 00:58:46,280
Speaker 2: just we talked about how it's really tough for you know,

1246
00:58:46,440 --> 00:58:50,080
Speaker 2: young corners, rookie corners, to come in and perform. Certain

1247
00:58:50,240 --> 00:58:53,000
Speaker 2: was one of the exceptions to that rule. You know,

1248
00:58:53,120 --> 00:58:55,920
Speaker 2: so you still have two excellent safeties. There's there's not

1249
00:58:56,040 --> 00:58:58,480
Speaker 2: where's the you know, you had bad health, like you

1250
00:58:58,520 --> 00:59:00,000
Speaker 2: do have a quarterback las year, but you also think

1251
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:03,720
Speaker 2: they had bad injury luck last year, especially on the

1252
00:59:03,800 --> 00:59:09,800
Speaker 2: defensive side at receiver as well. If Russ is mister

1253
00:59:09,960 --> 00:59:13,920
Speaker 2: unlimited whatever he says, and back to like anywhere close

1254
00:59:14,040 --> 00:59:19,920
Speaker 2: eighty ninety of peak Russ, this team could win the

1255
00:59:19,960 --> 00:59:24,400
Speaker 2: Super Bowl. Now you have questionss new coach, how's that

1256
00:59:24,600 --> 00:59:26,440
Speaker 2: going to work? But I think it comes down and

1257
00:59:26,560 --> 00:59:28,240
Speaker 2: you're just in a tough division, so you you could

1258
00:59:28,240 --> 00:59:30,400
Speaker 2: get var inside of even the playoffs, like you know,

1259
00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:32,880
Speaker 2: because who knows, you could finish fourth in this division

1260
00:59:32,880 --> 00:59:36,360
Speaker 2: to be really good. But I think the Broncs are

1261
00:59:36,400 --> 00:59:37,960
Speaker 2: one of the best teams in the f C. It's

1262
00:59:38,080 --> 00:59:40,600
Speaker 2: all that there's no road holes on this roster. I

1263
00:59:40,640 --> 00:59:44,600
Speaker 2: don't see any position where you're like, eh, they need

1264
00:59:44,640 --> 00:59:48,400
Speaker 2: to address. It's it's a really complete roster. And what

1265
00:59:48,560 --> 00:59:51,560
Speaker 2: I think that they need is they just need Russ

1266
00:59:52,000 --> 00:59:54,919
Speaker 2: is Russ who we still know Russ as we saw him. Sure,

1267
00:59:54,920 --> 00:59:56,440
Speaker 2: but you know, you have a hand injury. You had

1268
00:59:56,480 --> 01:00:00,640
Speaker 2: an awful situation in Seattle, play calling, offensive line just

1269
01:00:00,760 --> 01:00:04,280
Speaker 2: a mess, but his Russ deteriorating, whereas like he just

1270
01:00:04,360 --> 01:00:06,720
Speaker 2: needed to get out and then he's right back to

1271
01:00:06,840 --> 01:00:09,600
Speaker 2: Russ and we still see the flashes. But I mean,

1272
01:00:09,680 --> 01:00:12,120
Speaker 2: like what percentage of where he was. He's going to

1273
01:00:12,160 --> 01:00:14,280
Speaker 2: start to decline eventually, because you have to remember that

1274
01:00:14,960 --> 01:00:18,800
Speaker 2: Wilson uses his legs as part of what makes him special.

1275
01:00:19,080 --> 01:00:21,360
Speaker 2: So eventually that's you know, it's not like he's Lamar

1276
01:00:21,440 --> 01:00:24,200
Speaker 2: Jackson and needs a run, you know. And but I

1277
01:00:24,320 --> 01:00:28,680
Speaker 2: worry a little bit about Russ over time. But this

1278
01:00:28,800 --> 01:00:32,440
Speaker 2: team's really good power. I have them projected for ten

1279
01:00:32,520 --> 01:00:35,320
Speaker 2: point four wins and their win totals over ten minus

1280
01:00:35,360 --> 01:00:38,760
Speaker 2: one twenty. So no value here. But if Russ is

1281
01:00:38,840 --> 01:00:41,280
Speaker 2: ross and he stays healthy, because if not, I think

1282
01:00:41,280 --> 01:00:44,400
Speaker 2: it's like ripping as your quarterback. Look out. The Broncos

1283
01:00:44,440 --> 01:00:48,160
Speaker 2: are very scary. The problem is they play in a

1284
01:00:48,240 --> 01:00:49,160
Speaker 2: ridiculous division.

1285
01:00:50,720 --> 01:00:52,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like the Broncos still.

1286
01:00:52,720 --> 01:00:54,280
Speaker 3: I mean, I understand if you don't want to take

1287
01:00:54,280 --> 01:00:55,680
Speaker 3: the win total, but I think you have to look

1288
01:00:55,680 --> 01:00:57,840
Speaker 3: at super Bowl first of all division, their plus two

1289
01:00:57,920 --> 01:00:59,840
Speaker 3: fifty you know, I like that.

1290
01:01:00,000 --> 01:01:02,240
Speaker 1: I mean, and a lot of people that listen to

1291
01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:04,000
Speaker 1: this pot are just looking for some good.

1292
01:01:03,920 --> 01:01:06,240
Speaker 3: Plus money bets, you know, some juicy plus money bets

1293
01:01:06,640 --> 01:01:07,960
Speaker 3: that they can take that could hit.

1294
01:01:08,000 --> 01:01:09,440
Speaker 1: And I think Broncos alive.

1295
01:01:09,200 --> 01:01:11,360
Speaker 3: To win the division. So getting them, you know, plus

1296
01:01:11,400 --> 01:01:14,560
Speaker 3: two fifties not bad. You know, they were, they were

1297
01:01:14,560 --> 01:01:16,520
Speaker 3: a nine win team last year. Just you know, even

1298
01:01:16,560 --> 01:01:18,800
Speaker 3: with lock in that quarterback situation and a health situation

1299
01:01:18,920 --> 01:01:21,360
Speaker 3: and you know, not really having a pass rush.

1300
01:01:22,600 --> 01:01:24,080
Speaker 1: I think they're well. I think they're gonna be well

1301
01:01:24,160 --> 01:01:25,720
Speaker 1: coached with with Hackett.

1302
01:01:25,760 --> 01:01:28,080
Speaker 3: I think, you know, even if he's not peak Russ,

1303
01:01:28,280 --> 01:01:30,480
Speaker 3: I think it's still going to be good enough. I think,

1304
01:01:30,600 --> 01:01:32,600
Speaker 3: like you said, the Rossa doesn't have holes. I think

1305
01:01:32,600 --> 01:01:34,960
Speaker 3: the Broncos have a blueprint in the past of kind

1306
01:01:35,000 --> 01:01:37,640
Speaker 3: of integrating a new quarter up, a new a week quarterback,

1307
01:01:37,640 --> 01:01:39,840
Speaker 3: because they've they've done it before and got into the

1308
01:01:40,040 --> 01:01:43,040
Speaker 3: to the Super Bowl. So and their schedule, you know,

1309
01:01:43,160 --> 01:01:46,720
Speaker 3: even with facing the Chargers, the Chiefs and the Raiders twice,

1310
01:01:47,040 --> 01:01:50,200
Speaker 3: the schedule is still middle of the pack, seventeenth easiest

1311
01:01:50,200 --> 01:01:54,400
Speaker 3: in terms of opposing win totals. So I think it's

1312
01:01:54,400 --> 01:01:57,520
Speaker 3: all there for Denver, and they're not going to have

1313
01:01:57,560 --> 01:01:59,040
Speaker 3: to rely because they didn't have a lot of early

1314
01:01:59,120 --> 01:02:00,600
Speaker 3: draft picks, so they're not gonna have to rely on

1315
01:02:00,720 --> 01:02:02,240
Speaker 3: like a lot of these draft picks to hit. Like

1316
01:02:02,560 --> 01:02:05,040
Speaker 3: even if Benito doesn't hit, you know, it's still I

1317
01:02:05,080 --> 01:02:06,040
Speaker 3: think they still be Okay.

1318
01:02:06,200 --> 01:02:08,680
Speaker 1: So I really like Denver still.

1319
01:02:09,400 --> 01:02:12,480
Speaker 3: I know it's a scary division, but that's why, you know,

1320
01:02:12,840 --> 01:02:16,880
Speaker 3: Conference super Bowl odds, I think make and division, you know,

1321
01:02:16,960 --> 01:02:18,800
Speaker 3: even the division odds. But I think, you know, looking

1322
01:02:18,840 --> 01:02:21,560
Speaker 3: at them for the for the AFC, I think makes

1323
01:02:21,560 --> 01:02:25,160
Speaker 3: a lot of sense. And you know they are, you know,

1324
01:02:25,320 --> 01:02:26,840
Speaker 3: eight and a half to one for that, and then

1325
01:02:26,920 --> 01:02:29,320
Speaker 3: the super Bowl they are Let's.

1326
01:02:29,120 --> 01:02:31,880
Speaker 1: See, what are they for the super Bowl? They're sixteen

1327
01:02:31,880 --> 01:02:34,000
Speaker 1: to one. Yeah, like those I like it.

1328
01:02:34,120 --> 01:02:35,840
Speaker 3: You know, it's not a lot of hoes you can

1329
01:02:35,880 --> 01:02:38,520
Speaker 3: poke in Denver outside of things that they can't really control,

1330
01:02:38,520 --> 01:02:40,800
Speaker 3: which is how the other teams in their division are

1331
01:02:41,000 --> 01:02:41,400
Speaker 3: a point.

1332
01:02:41,560 --> 01:02:45,960
Speaker 1: So like Denver a lot. Let's go to the Chargers.

1333
01:02:46,360 --> 01:02:50,640
Speaker 3: The Chargers another team I think, really strong roster and

1334
01:02:50,760 --> 01:02:53,760
Speaker 3: they added J. C. Jackson at corner, they added Khalil

1335
01:02:53,880 --> 01:02:56,840
Speaker 3: Mack and edge rusher. They drafted guard Zion Johnson in

1336
01:02:56,920 --> 01:02:59,520
Speaker 3: the first round. The schedule is on the tougher side.

1337
01:03:00,160 --> 01:03:02,320
Speaker 3: They're I think thirteen to fourteenth in terms of win

1338
01:03:02,400 --> 01:03:03,240
Speaker 3: opposing win total.

1339
01:03:03,840 --> 01:03:03,960
Speaker 2: Uh.

1340
01:03:04,240 --> 01:03:06,560
Speaker 3: And then you know their win total is ten just

1341
01:03:06,680 --> 01:03:09,200
Speaker 3: like the Broncos. It's due to minus one twenty five.

1342
01:03:10,400 --> 01:03:13,560
Speaker 3: But they they were you know, put this in perspective, right,

1343
01:03:14,160 --> 01:03:16,440
Speaker 3: The Broncos Pythagora in win total last year was eight

1344
01:03:16,480 --> 01:03:19,320
Speaker 3: point nine and the Chargers was eight point eight. And

1345
01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:21,800
Speaker 3: that's what the Chargers having a healthy justin Herbert and

1346
01:03:21,880 --> 01:03:26,440
Speaker 3: the Broncos having no quarterback. So I like the Broncos

1347
01:03:26,480 --> 01:03:30,360
Speaker 3: more than the Chargers. The market is higher on the

1348
01:03:30,480 --> 01:03:32,320
Speaker 3: Chargers than the Broncos, which is another reason I like

1349
01:03:32,400 --> 01:03:34,520
Speaker 3: them more. I think they provide a better value. But

1350
01:03:34,640 --> 01:03:36,880
Speaker 3: I still really like the Chargers Rosters. So it's like,

1351
01:03:37,200 --> 01:03:39,040
Speaker 3: I don't know exactly how I want to invest in

1352
01:03:39,120 --> 01:03:41,680
Speaker 3: the Chargers because I really liked them, I just don't

1353
01:03:41,720 --> 01:03:42,840
Speaker 3: like them as much as the Broncos.

1354
01:03:43,040 --> 01:03:43,520
Speaker 1: What do you think?

1355
01:03:44,120 --> 01:03:46,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually I said I had the Chargers ahead

1356
01:03:46,680 --> 01:03:49,360
Speaker 2: of the Broncos. I had them exactly the same, exactly

1357
01:03:49,440 --> 01:03:52,680
Speaker 2: the same. I projected Chargers ten wins. So I think

1358
01:03:52,680 --> 01:03:55,600
Speaker 2: their wind total is like over ten minus one, twenty

1359
01:03:56,080 --> 01:03:57,880
Speaker 2: minus well twenty five, So I did lean under, but

1360
01:03:58,000 --> 01:04:00,600
Speaker 2: not enough to bet it. Yeah, I mean you have

1361
01:04:00,720 --> 01:04:02,600
Speaker 2: to really like their secondary. Now, you have to really

1362
01:04:02,720 --> 01:04:05,760
Speaker 2: like their quarterback situation. Their offensive line I think got

1363
01:04:05,800 --> 01:04:08,320
Speaker 2: better with John's's right tackle. Still a little iffy, but

1364
01:04:08,360 --> 01:04:10,520
Speaker 2: where's this is a really complete roster as well, Just

1365
01:04:10,600 --> 01:04:14,160
Speaker 2: like Denver, hard to really poke holes in the Chargers.

1366
01:04:14,360 --> 01:04:17,160
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna come down to just a couple

1367
01:04:17,200 --> 01:04:19,840
Speaker 2: of games, turnover luck, injury luck. Injury luck in this

1368
01:04:19,880 --> 01:04:21,960
Speaker 2: division is gonna be everything. It's really hard to call.

1369
01:04:22,160 --> 01:04:24,480
Speaker 2: Chargers got a shot. They're gonna be right there. Not

1370
01:04:24,640 --> 01:04:26,320
Speaker 2: much to not like about them. I think that their

1371
01:04:26,360 --> 01:04:29,520
Speaker 2: price pretty fairly. If you are a really big believer

1372
01:04:29,640 --> 01:04:31,760
Speaker 2: and one of the teams in this division, go for it.

1373
01:04:31,880 --> 01:04:33,800
Speaker 2: It's just this division is not for me from a

1374
01:04:33,840 --> 01:04:38,080
Speaker 2: vetting perspective, because it's just tough. It's gonna be an

1375
01:04:38,080 --> 01:04:41,200
Speaker 2: absolute grind for all four of these teams throughout the

1376
01:04:41,280 --> 01:04:44,040
Speaker 2: season trying to win this division probably gonna be penalized

1377
01:04:44,040 --> 01:04:46,040
Speaker 2: also for like trying to get home. We know important

1378
01:04:46,080 --> 01:04:48,120
Speaker 2: home field is, right, so I think that like the

1379
01:04:48,560 --> 01:04:50,600
Speaker 2: winner of this division. It's gonna be really tough for

1380
01:04:50,680 --> 01:04:53,800
Speaker 2: them to have the best record in the AFC. And

1381
01:04:53,880 --> 01:04:56,880
Speaker 2: that's so big now with the one buy and like,

1382
01:04:57,520 --> 01:04:59,520
Speaker 2: these teams are gonna beating up on each other. So

1383
01:05:00,200 --> 01:05:02,360
Speaker 2: who's gonna get Who's gonna get that one seed? I mean,

1384
01:05:02,400 --> 01:05:04,440
Speaker 2: you have to The Builds are probably the favorite to

1385
01:05:04,520 --> 01:05:06,920
Speaker 2: do so because you can't really see like the Colts,

1386
01:05:07,680 --> 01:05:10,880
Speaker 2: you know, winning twelve thirteen games. But it's gonna be

1387
01:05:10,960 --> 01:05:14,040
Speaker 2: hard for one of these teams, I think, to you know,

1388
01:05:14,480 --> 01:05:17,560
Speaker 2: get that one seed, get home field. It's really hard

1389
01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:20,000
Speaker 2: to project because man, if you could put all four

1390
01:05:20,040 --> 01:05:22,400
Speaker 2: of these teams in other divisions, certain other divisions in

1391
01:05:22,400 --> 01:05:24,240
Speaker 2: the NFL, and they be favored to win those divisions,

1392
01:05:24,240 --> 01:05:25,280
Speaker 2: and they're all in the same division.

1393
01:05:25,960 --> 01:05:27,640
Speaker 3: So let me ask you this about the Chargers, because

1394
01:05:27,680 --> 01:05:30,840
Speaker 3: I think this could play a bigger factor than it

1395
01:05:30,920 --> 01:05:35,040
Speaker 3: may usually. What what is your view on stay as

1396
01:05:35,120 --> 01:05:37,080
Speaker 3: It's like is he because a lot of people, you know,

1397
01:05:37,240 --> 01:05:39,560
Speaker 3: we liked them, I think coming into last year like

1398
01:05:39,640 --> 01:05:41,840
Speaker 3: the scheme, they think it's kind of cutting edge.

1399
01:05:41,920 --> 01:05:43,600
Speaker 1: But I think there's two things.

1400
01:05:43,400 --> 01:05:44,040
Speaker 2: About him.

1401
01:05:45,480 --> 01:05:46,520
Speaker 1: That that drug criticism.

1402
01:05:46,640 --> 01:05:50,280
Speaker 3: Number one is he makes these like high variance decisions

1403
01:05:50,360 --> 01:05:54,440
Speaker 3: that you know, third down wise going for it and

1404
01:05:54,720 --> 01:05:57,320
Speaker 3: all that stuff forth down wise, I mean, and number

1405
01:05:57,360 --> 01:06:01,840
Speaker 3: two he kind of concedes the run in order to

1406
01:06:01,880 --> 01:06:05,080
Speaker 3: play that scheme. Now, the Chargers have one of the

1407
01:06:05,200 --> 01:06:08,440
Speaker 3: more complete rosses in the league. But like now he's

1408
01:06:08,520 --> 01:06:10,680
Speaker 3: kind of playing with fire because like this team, like

1409
01:06:10,840 --> 01:06:13,000
Speaker 3: like I said, they still had a worse Pythagora in

1410
01:06:13,040 --> 01:06:14,560
Speaker 3: winter than a Broncos last year.

1411
01:06:14,600 --> 01:06:17,280
Speaker 1: So it's like it's stillly going a factor into this.

1412
01:06:17,760 --> 01:06:19,600
Speaker 3: And is he a plus EV coach or is he

1413
01:06:19,880 --> 01:06:22,160
Speaker 3: kind of neutral or is he is he actually holding

1414
01:06:22,240 --> 01:06:23,680
Speaker 3: him back because I think that that could play a

1415
01:06:23,760 --> 01:06:26,080
Speaker 3: huge factor when you consider just how close these teams

1416
01:06:26,120 --> 01:06:26,440
Speaker 3: all are.

1417
01:06:27,400 --> 01:06:29,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually like Staley. I think that he's gonna

1418
01:06:29,680 --> 01:06:32,360
Speaker 2: be a it's so TV day, but I think that

1419
01:06:32,720 --> 01:06:34,880
Speaker 2: I have him as plus TV and I think he's

1420
01:06:34,920 --> 01:06:36,480
Speaker 2: gonna be one of the better coaches. I think he

1421
01:06:36,520 --> 01:06:38,560
Speaker 2: got carried away with himself a little bit in that

1422
01:06:38,880 --> 01:06:41,360
Speaker 2: early in the season. Everything he did was working. You

1423
01:06:41,600 --> 01:06:43,600
Speaker 2: just go off every fourth them and was working, and

1424
01:06:43,640 --> 01:06:45,440
Speaker 2: it just kind of carried over. I think he's in

1425
01:06:45,520 --> 01:06:47,240
Speaker 2: that positive You though I didn't agree with everything he

1426
01:06:47,280 --> 01:06:49,880
Speaker 2: did this year. I think going forward. He's a great

1427
01:06:49,880 --> 01:06:50,480
Speaker 2: head coach to have.

1428
01:06:51,120 --> 01:06:53,640
Speaker 3: I'm still a little worried about about the run defense,

1429
01:06:54,040 --> 01:06:56,520
Speaker 3: especially if like it comes down to like Chargers Broncos

1430
01:06:56,600 --> 01:06:59,040
Speaker 3: for a playoff spot or a home field or something,

1431
01:06:59,280 --> 01:07:01,520
Speaker 3: you know, whatever it is. They didn't really do much

1432
01:07:01,560 --> 01:07:04,520
Speaker 3: to improve their run defense. I still think there's you know,

1433
01:07:05,360 --> 01:07:08,600
Speaker 3: the defensive line, and you know, on the inside the

1434
01:07:08,680 --> 01:07:11,960
Speaker 3: interior line and the linebackers aren't the greatest. So I

1435
01:07:12,160 --> 01:07:13,880
Speaker 3: just worry about that, especially you know, your facing the

1436
01:07:13,920 --> 01:07:16,840
Speaker 3: Broncos are gonna have Travonte Williams and Melvin Gordon in

1437
01:07:16,920 --> 01:07:20,400
Speaker 3: there and pretty good old line. You know. That's the

1438
01:07:20,480 --> 01:07:22,360
Speaker 3: one thing I think could be their achilles hell. Still,

1439
01:07:22,480 --> 01:07:25,040
Speaker 3: there's another reason why I favored the Broncos over them

1440
01:07:25,280 --> 01:07:26,680
Speaker 3: a little bit more. I still think that run d

1441
01:07:26,760 --> 01:07:31,320
Speaker 3: could be pretty bad in LA after finishing was it

1442
01:07:31,600 --> 01:07:33,880
Speaker 3: thirty thirtieth in Dvoa.

1443
01:07:34,200 --> 01:07:37,040
Speaker 1: So that that's kind of their achilles hell. Where's the Broncos.

1444
01:07:37,040 --> 01:07:39,800
Speaker 1: I don't think have necessarily an achilles heal, at least

1445
01:07:39,920 --> 01:07:40,920
Speaker 1: not that's not evident.

1446
01:07:41,000 --> 01:07:44,360
Speaker 3: Now, all right, let's finish up with the Raiders. They

1447
01:07:44,560 --> 01:07:48,360
Speaker 3: don't really do much on in the draft because they

1448
01:07:48,400 --> 01:07:50,440
Speaker 3: had six total picks, but none on day's one or two.

1449
01:07:51,040 --> 01:07:54,840
Speaker 3: But they did add some big names Davante Adams, a

1450
01:07:54,840 --> 01:07:58,240
Speaker 3: wide receiver, Chandler Jones on the edge rock you seeing

1451
01:07:58,240 --> 01:08:01,000
Speaker 3: in that corner, who you know, top thirty in PFF

1452
01:08:01,040 --> 01:08:02,480
Speaker 3: grades out of over one hundred corners.

1453
01:08:03,000 --> 01:08:04,040
Speaker 1: They did lose Casey.

1454
01:08:03,880 --> 01:08:08,640
Speaker 3: Hayward and in Gotway, but you know, the third hardest

1455
01:08:08,640 --> 01:08:12,800
Speaker 3: strength to schedule as you mentioned, and something that really

1456
01:08:12,840 --> 01:08:16,240
Speaker 3: stands out and you know, I it's not you know,

1457
01:08:16,439 --> 01:08:19,280
Speaker 3: obviously every situation is different, but over time we've seen

1458
01:08:19,320 --> 01:08:22,200
Speaker 3: these things kind of trend toward. You know, the teams

1459
01:08:22,240 --> 01:08:24,679
Speaker 3: that overachieve on their Patagora win total tend to regrets

1460
01:08:24,680 --> 01:08:27,360
Speaker 3: to the meat, and the teams that underachieved tend to

1461
01:08:27,400 --> 01:08:30,680
Speaker 3: revert positively towards the mean. Now, Vegas went ten and

1462
01:08:30,760 --> 01:08:33,519
Speaker 3: seven last year, but their PATAGONA and win total was

1463
01:08:33,560 --> 01:08:34,439
Speaker 3: six point nine.

1464
01:08:34,880 --> 01:08:39,160
Speaker 1: So that is a massive, massive overachievement. So even though

1465
01:08:39,200 --> 01:08:42,240
Speaker 1: they did add a sexy name wide receiver and Ed

1466
01:08:42,360 --> 01:08:45,639
Speaker 1: Rusher and some sexy names, overall, this team is probably

1467
01:08:45,680 --> 01:08:49,120
Speaker 1: coming from a lower point than is kind of perceived,

1468
01:08:49,439 --> 01:08:51,559
Speaker 1: especially because they made the playoffs and they even almost

1469
01:08:51,600 --> 01:08:56,120
Speaker 1: beat the eventual Conference champion Bengals. If you know something,

1470
01:08:56,240 --> 01:08:58,200
Speaker 1: you know that the ball goes their way. It got

1471
01:08:58,280 --> 01:08:59,920
Speaker 1: hits off to the guy's helmet.

1472
01:09:00,680 --> 01:09:05,200
Speaker 3: So you know, I want to get excited about the Raiders,

1473
01:09:05,240 --> 01:09:06,760
Speaker 3: and I do think there's some value in kind of

1474
01:09:06,800 --> 01:09:08,960
Speaker 3: taking them as long shot to win a division.

1475
01:09:09,200 --> 01:09:12,120
Speaker 1: But then another part, he kind of says, this might

1476
01:09:12,200 --> 01:09:15,200
Speaker 1: just be an average team. Again, what do you think?

1477
01:09:15,920 --> 01:09:17,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think they're clearly the worst team

1478
01:09:18,280 --> 01:09:22,160
Speaker 2: in this division. But with Adams now, you know we've

1479
01:09:22,240 --> 01:09:26,200
Speaker 2: seen flashes from car and you know, throwing Adams. Now

1480
01:09:26,280 --> 01:09:29,240
Speaker 2: with Waller, you know, you gotta still worry about the

1481
01:09:29,280 --> 01:09:31,880
Speaker 2: offensive line a little bit. They were definitely fortunate last year.

1482
01:09:32,600 --> 01:09:34,080
Speaker 2: But I do think that the defense will be a

1483
01:09:34,120 --> 01:09:36,800
Speaker 2: lot better getting Jones on the other side, and then

1484
01:09:36,920 --> 01:09:40,960
Speaker 2: the defensive coordinator change. We both love Graham, and they

1485
01:09:41,040 --> 01:09:43,599
Speaker 2: obviously needed to do some things scheme wise. We saw

1486
01:09:43,680 --> 01:09:46,040
Speaker 2: what Mahomes did to them, what like ten touchdowns and

1487
01:09:46,080 --> 01:09:48,600
Speaker 2: no interceptions and two meetings. They needed to make some

1488
01:09:48,720 --> 01:09:51,800
Speaker 2: changes on that side. I think that they are overall better,

1489
01:09:51,960 --> 01:09:54,840
Speaker 2: more talented, and I think that the coordinator change will help.

1490
01:09:55,400 --> 01:09:57,560
Speaker 2: This is a team that could win. I don't know

1491
01:09:57,800 --> 01:10:00,880
Speaker 2: ten eleven, twelve games in the NFC. It's gonna be

1492
01:10:00,960 --> 01:10:03,920
Speaker 2: really difficult in this division. I do think if there's

1493
01:10:03,920 --> 01:10:06,400
Speaker 2: some upside, Adams is gonna just open up that offense.

1494
01:10:06,479 --> 01:10:09,280
Speaker 2: For sure, Park can play at like his peak level.

1495
01:10:09,360 --> 01:10:11,040
Speaker 2: This team's scary and they're gonna They're not gonna be

1496
01:10:11,360 --> 01:10:14,160
Speaker 2: fun to play at all at any point. But they

1497
01:10:14,200 --> 01:10:17,080
Speaker 2: definitely got fortunate. They're probably a regression candidate. But adding

1498
01:10:17,120 --> 01:10:21,320
Speaker 2: the defensive coordinator, adding Adams, you know, adding Jones makes

1499
01:10:21,400 --> 01:10:24,639
Speaker 2: me hesitant to go under here. You know, I project

1500
01:10:24,680 --> 01:10:26,960
Speaker 2: them their wind totals, but sitting under nine over eight

1501
01:10:27,000 --> 01:10:29,360
Speaker 2: and a half in between the two, that's about where

1502
01:10:29,400 --> 01:10:31,920
Speaker 2: I have them. I don't hate a flyer on the

1503
01:10:31,960 --> 01:10:34,280
Speaker 2: Raiders to win this division, but again, this division is

1504
01:10:34,320 --> 01:10:36,639
Speaker 2: such a gauntlet. I feel bad for the Raiders because

1505
01:10:36,680 --> 01:10:39,520
Speaker 2: they I think did some good things in the offseason,

1506
01:10:39,560 --> 01:10:41,680
Speaker 2: and then you know, you get Russ and then they

1507
01:10:41,760 --> 01:10:44,599
Speaker 2: have the Charters and the Chiefs. It's brutal. So it's

1508
01:10:44,640 --> 01:10:45,960
Speaker 2: a pass for me. I like what the Raiders did,

1509
01:10:46,000 --> 01:10:47,759
Speaker 2: but you're right, they're probably a regression candidy.

1510
01:10:48,479 --> 01:10:50,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I do love that edge though. You know,

1511
01:10:50,360 --> 01:10:52,479
Speaker 1: Max Crosby is one of the best.

1512
01:10:53,000 --> 01:10:55,040
Speaker 3: He's turned himself into one of the best ed rushers

1513
01:10:55,040 --> 01:10:56,880
Speaker 3: in the league, and any add Jones on the other.

1514
01:10:56,880 --> 01:10:58,800
Speaker 1: Side, Like that's that's big.

1515
01:10:58,920 --> 01:11:01,679
Speaker 3: But like and I like that they have three guys,

1516
01:11:01,760 --> 01:11:04,559
Speaker 3: three of the best separators in the league at their positions,

1517
01:11:04,640 --> 01:11:08,960
Speaker 3: Adams and Renfro, Adams on the outside, Renfro and the interior,

1518
01:11:09,000 --> 01:11:11,840
Speaker 3: and then Waller at tight end. Uh So, like they

1519
01:11:11,920 --> 01:11:15,200
Speaker 3: have all the tools, but somehow they still have the

1520
01:11:15,320 --> 01:11:17,960
Speaker 3: fourth best quarterback in the division even though Derek Carr

1521
01:11:18,040 --> 01:11:20,479
Speaker 3: is playing well and he's got a great supporting cast,

1522
01:11:20,760 --> 01:11:23,080
Speaker 3: Like their pass offense maybe still probably will still be

1523
01:11:23,160 --> 01:11:26,160
Speaker 3: the fourth best in the division. So yeah, it's it's

1524
01:11:26,160 --> 01:11:28,320
Speaker 3: all about the division and the strength with me, you know,

1525
01:11:28,640 --> 01:11:30,920
Speaker 3: with this team, it's the third hardest strength to schedule.

1526
01:11:31,040 --> 01:11:33,560
Speaker 3: Kind of illuminates that, you know, it's you know a

1527
01:11:33,600 --> 01:11:35,040
Speaker 3: lot of different ways you can kind of rank it,

1528
01:11:35,040 --> 01:11:36,679
Speaker 3: and then they come out as one of the toughest.

1529
01:11:36,760 --> 01:11:39,439
Speaker 3: So yeah, like I think the Broncos are kind of

1530
01:11:39,439 --> 01:11:41,720
Speaker 3: my team that I'm targeting here and one of my

1531
01:11:41,760 --> 01:11:44,200
Speaker 3: favorite in the afcuh but that's gonna do it for

1532
01:11:44,280 --> 01:11:44,719
Speaker 3: the AFC.

1533
01:11:45,760 --> 01:11:47,160
Speaker 2: Let me let me, Let's wrap up real quick. I

1534
01:11:47,200 --> 01:11:51,519
Speaker 2: think Ravens for me, the Raven's future. Uh like the

1535
01:11:51,600 --> 01:11:53,479
Speaker 2: Raven's future. I like the I think the Jets are

1536
01:11:53,479 --> 01:11:56,840
Speaker 2: still a year away. Under six probably my favorite win total.

1537
01:11:56,880 --> 01:12:00,000
Speaker 2: And also even though with the uncertainty of Watson under Steelers,

1538
01:12:00,560 --> 01:12:02,320
Speaker 2: you know, if you can get under seven plus money

1539
01:12:02,520 --> 01:12:05,640
Speaker 2: under seven and a half, I like those three. So

1540
01:12:05,720 --> 01:12:11,600
Speaker 2: Steelers under, Jets under, and Ravens future. How about you?

1541
01:12:11,640 --> 01:12:12,320
Speaker 2: What do you want to highlight?

1542
01:12:12,680 --> 01:12:12,880
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1543
01:12:12,920 --> 01:12:16,320
Speaker 3: I like I like the Ravens as well Division Conference

1544
01:12:16,360 --> 01:12:21,360
Speaker 3: super Bowl like the Broncos Division Conference super Bowl, and

1545
01:12:21,479 --> 01:12:25,479
Speaker 3: then fading win totals for the entire AFC South outside

1546
01:12:25,520 --> 01:12:28,760
Speaker 3: the Colts, and I actually like the Colts over. Now

1547
01:12:28,800 --> 01:12:31,360
Speaker 3: I've kind of done a complete one eighty, but it's

1548
01:12:31,360 --> 01:12:32,960
Speaker 3: a lot to do. Like it was just really between

1549
01:12:33,000 --> 01:12:34,840
Speaker 3: them and the Titans and going into the draft, the

1550
01:12:34,880 --> 01:12:37,000
Speaker 3: Titans still look like the better team now they don't,

1551
01:12:37,240 --> 01:12:39,519
Speaker 3: so like now, you know, give me.

1552
01:12:39,560 --> 01:12:42,240
Speaker 1: The Colts so that that's the win total over that

1553
01:12:42,360 --> 01:12:42,640
Speaker 1: I like.

1554
01:12:42,960 --> 01:12:45,680
Speaker 3: But this is gonna do it for the AFC Our

1555
01:12:45,720 --> 01:12:49,040
Speaker 3: AFC episode of the Action Network NFL pod. Be sure

1556
01:12:49,080 --> 01:12:51,280
Speaker 3: to also check out, as I mentioned, the Fantasy Flex

1557
01:12:51,560 --> 01:12:55,040
Speaker 3: podcast where Sean Kerner and I be breaking down the

1558
01:12:55,120 --> 01:12:57,799
Speaker 3: fantasy implications post draft of every.

1559
01:12:57,680 --> 01:12:59,639
Speaker 1: Single division and just kind of how these teams are.

1560
01:12:59,600 --> 01:13:03,000
Speaker 3: Set up, deep diving on every player, every fantasy relevant

1561
01:13:03,000 --> 01:13:04,880
Speaker 3: player on every team. I'd be sure to leave this

1562
01:13:04,960 --> 01:13:07,240
Speaker 3: pod of five star review on Apple or Spotify. You

1563
01:13:07,320 --> 01:13:11,720
Speaker 3: can find Stucky on Twitter at Stucky Too. You can

1564
01:13:11,760 --> 01:13:14,880
Speaker 3: find me at Chris Raybon r A y b o N.

1565
01:13:15,560 --> 01:13:17,680
Speaker 3: You can find us at those same handles in the

1566
01:13:17,800 --> 01:13:23,200
Speaker 3: free award winning Action Network at Until next time, Let's

1567
01:13:23,240 --> 01:13:23,879
Speaker 3: get this, schmikey