WEBVTT - NBA Opening Night Preview & Picks | Tue Oct 20 0:00:00.740 --> 0:00:04.300 What these young bloods have to understand, that this game 0:00:05.130 --> 0:00:10.110 has always been and will always be about buckets. Just 0:00:10.190 --> 0:00:12.010 attack the basket. Stop it! 0:00:12.710 --> 0:00:18.550 Stop it! You cannot do it like that! Oh! 0:00:18.610 --> 0:00:24.420 With no regard for human life! Bang! Bang! 0:00:24.480 --> 0:00:27.480 I cannot believe you've done it again! 0:00:27.620 --> 0:00:28.510 Are you kidding me? 0:00:28.580 --> 0:00:36.570 Oh! Welcome to Buckets by DraftKings Sportsbook. We're back, baby. 0:00:36.830 --> 0:00:37.290 We're back. 0:00:37.690 --> 0:00:39.970 The NBA season is here and we have best bets 0:00:40.010 --> 0:00:43.430 for you for the opening slate of the NBA season 26-27. 0:00:43.750 --> 0:00:46.770 Thanks for joining us. I'm your host, Matt Moore. Joined 0:00:46.790 --> 0:00:49.490 for this episode by Brian Fonseca. Brian Fonseca, NY from 0:00:49.510 --> 0:00:52.630 the New York Post sports page, as well as his 0:00:52.729 --> 0:00:56.660 own page. You can catch him at youtube.com slash Brian 0:00:56.800 --> 0:00:59.800 Fonseca at Brian Fonseca. Um, you can catch him Brian, 0:00:59.820 --> 0:01:03.040 but it's like an NY on Twitter. Also join me, 0:01:03.780 --> 0:01:07.020 Michael fiddle at Phil's picks, the maestro of the market. 0:01:07.640 --> 0:01:09.390 He joined me on an episode with Raheem Palmer for 0:01:09.410 --> 0:01:11.920 the ringer gambling show where he, um, talked in the, I, 0:01:12.130 --> 0:01:15.090 I allowed, I haven't, I have held fiddle in for 0:01:15.150 --> 0:01:18.310 long enough and allowed him to completely nerd out about 0:01:18.430 --> 0:01:21.090 all of, uh, the market tendencies and ways to attack 0:01:21.130 --> 0:01:23.710 the market and how to approach process betting. So if 0:01:23.750 --> 0:01:25.550 you really want to get in the weeds, go check 0:01:25.569 --> 0:01:27.310 that one out, uh, in your feeds. 0:01:27.490 --> 0:01:27.670 Right. 0:01:28.370 --> 0:01:31.300 Now, on today's show, like I said, we will talk 0:01:31.340 --> 0:01:34.000 about the three NBA games that are on the slate, 0:01:34.420 --> 0:01:37.800 including a game that I am still just like really 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:39.920 struggling with the fact that it starts at 3 p.m. 0:01:40.060 --> 0:01:40.540 Eastern. 0:01:41.319 --> 0:01:45.550 People have jobs, NBA. Not me, but like real people, 0:01:45.850 --> 0:01:49.370 other people have real jobs. But we'll get to all 0:01:49.390 --> 0:01:51.590 those today. Before we get started, don't forget to download 0:01:51.610 --> 0:01:54.380 the free award-winning Action Network app. And if you want 0:01:54.400 --> 0:01:55.660 to get a step further, you can sign up for 0:01:55.860 --> 0:01:58.830 Action Pro. Our listeners get $ 20 off their first year 0:01:59.190 --> 0:02:03.070 of Action Pro by using promo code POD20 at actionnetwork.com 0:02:03.850 --> 0:02:08.310 slash pro. As we record this on Monday afternoon, I 0:02:08.990 --> 0:02:12.820 have less than 24 hours to cash my minus 250 0:02:12.820 --> 0:02:16.139 bet on Brandon Anderson to log at least 20 NBA 0:02:16.200 --> 0:02:18.900 futures before the season starts, despite him saying he's not 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:21.880 going to do any prep work on it. Clock's ticking, 0:02:22.380 --> 0:02:24.079 but I feel confident we're going to get home. I 0:02:24.090 --> 0:02:26.030 don't know how, but we're going to get home on this. 0:02:26.060 --> 0:02:28.010 You can catch all of Brandon's futures as well as 0:02:28.050 --> 0:02:29.790 all of our bets. If you sign up for Action 0:02:29.830 --> 0:02:33.429 Pro with going to actionnetwork.com slash pro and using code 0:02:33.470 --> 0:02:37.130 pod 20 plus. BetSync is back in the Action Network 0:02:37.250 --> 0:02:40.510 app now. You can automatically track your activity access across 0:02:40.510 --> 0:02:44.410 15 plus sports books and prediction markets all in one place. 0:02:44.490 --> 0:02:46.790 Connect your accounts once and your bets and trades will 0:02:46.910 --> 0:02:49.590 automatically appear as soon as you place them. No manual 0:02:49.610 --> 0:02:52.960 tracking required. Just open the Action app. Head to my accounts, 0:02:53.020 --> 0:02:55.740 connect your sports book or prediction market, and you're ready 0:02:56.419 --> 0:02:58.860 to go. All right, we have three games on the 0:02:58.900 --> 0:03:02.560 slate for opening night in the NBA. The Detroit Pistons 0:03:02.660 --> 0:03:05.290 were minus one and a half. That line has moved 0:03:05.430 --> 0:03:07.810 while I was recording podcast today. The Boston Celtics are 0:03:07.850 --> 0:03:11.010 now minus one and a half at DraftKings. Minus 105 0:03:11.010 --> 0:03:13.769 is your juice on that. Total 222 and a half 0:03:13.810 --> 0:03:18.880 in the market. Juiced to the under at minus 115. 0:03:18.880 --> 0:03:21.720 Moneyline is Celtics minus 112. That will be relevant later. 0:03:22.340 --> 0:03:25.760 Philadelphia 76ers take on the Knicks in Banner Night for 0:03:25.810 --> 0:03:28.550 New York. Knicks are four and a half point favorites. 0:03:28.870 --> 0:03:33.330 Juice towards the Knicks. Totals 231 and a half in 0:03:33.350 --> 0:03:37.570 the market. Juice towards the over. Sixers on the Moneyline 0:03:37.590 --> 0:03:42.810 are plus 154. Knicks are minus 185. Thunder taking on 0:03:42.850 --> 0:03:45.380 the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals rematch. The Spurs 0:03:45.410 --> 0:03:47.300 are minus two and a half. It's a juice to 0:03:47.320 --> 0:03:49.380 plus two and a half towards the Oklahoma city thunder 0:03:49.420 --> 0:03:52.680 on the road. Totals two 31 and a half juiced 0:03:52.800 --> 0:03:56.690 again towards the over slightly a thunder plus one 14 0:03:56.690 --> 0:03:57.770 on the money line. 0:03:58.130 --> 0:03:58.430 All right. 0:03:58.830 --> 0:04:00.170 We're going to get into best bets as a reminder 0:04:00.190 --> 0:04:01.690 of how this works. I got to remember how we 0:04:01.730 --> 0:04:04.350 do this. We have three bets from each of us. 0:04:04.450 --> 0:04:08.050 Three star, two star, one star, three star bets are absolute. 0:04:08.190 --> 0:04:10.850 We're in it full unit. We feel great about those 0:04:10.900 --> 0:04:11.340 two stars. 0:04:11.630 --> 0:04:11.970 Like them. 0:04:12.520 --> 0:04:12.960 We like them. 0:04:13.180 --> 0:04:18.539 They're playable. One stars are typically leans, leans, Or I'm 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:22.730 dabbling in on this from a longer perspective. Especially Brian 0:04:22.750 --> 0:04:26.549 Fonseca because he's a fucking coward. We will start, however, 0:04:26.870 --> 0:04:29.409 with Michael Fiddle. I want to get your first play 0:04:29.589 --> 0:04:31.969 on the slate. Michael Fiddle, kick us off. What's your 0:04:31.990 --> 0:04:34.480 three-star bet for NBA opening night? 0:04:35.220 --> 0:04:37.280 First three-star bet of the season is going to be 0:04:37.400 --> 0:04:38.400 a player prop. 0:04:38.180 --> 0:04:39.280 On Chet Holmgren. 0:04:39.300 --> 0:04:46.630 Under 13.5 points. For Chet, he is injured and has 0:04:46.690 --> 0:04:51.190 not played throughout preseason. And the market is fully pricing 0:04:51.250 --> 0:04:54.440 him into the game. Now, I wouldn't be surprised if 0:04:54.480 --> 0:04:57.760 he's out for this game. He has been seen at 0:04:57.860 --> 0:05:00.820 the most recent Thunder practice getting some shots up. Dagnall 0:05:00.860 --> 0:05:03.700 said he wasn't going to speak to his availability, but 0:05:03.740 --> 0:05:06.849 said everyone did a little at practice today. I really 0:05:06.890 --> 0:05:09.670 just don't expect coach Mark Dagnall of the Thunder to 0:05:09.710 --> 0:05:13.380 play Chet Holmgren 28 minutes after playing zero preseason games. 0:05:13.420 --> 0:05:14.200 So I think this is a. 0:05:14.880 --> 0:05:18.060 Clear spot where if Chet plays, he's going to be 0:05:18.160 --> 0:05:20.480 on a minutes limit. So this is, for me, a 0:05:20.779 --> 0:05:23.920 clear underplay. And I think the funny part to this, 0:05:23.980 --> 0:05:27.539 for me at least, is we just had Shams tweet 0:05:27.580 --> 0:05:32.320 those changes to NBA betting that the league was working 0:05:32.380 --> 0:05:34.820 in compliance with some of the prominent sportsbooks that you 0:05:34.839 --> 0:05:38.750 can't parlay unders for certain players. You can't bet on 0:05:38.790 --> 0:05:42.300 players who are projected to play 12 minutes or less 0:05:42.360 --> 0:05:45.419 you can't it was specially their unders you can't um 0:05:46.160 --> 0:05:47.550 what was the other one i'm missing one of them 0:05:47.560 --> 0:05:50.550 but anyways all these changes come out and my my 0:05:50.589 --> 0:05:53.490 reaction to that was like this is generally a vast 0:05:53.589 --> 0:05:56.930 overreaction the last one was like uh the highly riggable 0:05:56.970 --> 0:06:00.690 markets like the first basket first assist type markets are 0:06:00.740 --> 0:06:04.240 gone so it's like the markets where there's potentially some 0:06:04.320 --> 0:06:07.080 shenanigans are just not going to be available to limit 0:06:07.580 --> 0:06:10.290 you know any kind of negative PR. Like there was 0:06:10.330 --> 0:06:13.130 a baseball pitcher who was like intentionally throwing first. I 0:06:13.150 --> 0:06:16.190 think that's where it's coming from. But anyways, my whole 0:06:16.240 --> 0:06:18.900 reaction was like, this is an overreaction. Like it's not 0:06:18.940 --> 0:06:20.860 that big of a deal. And I said, there is 0:06:21.000 --> 0:06:24.680 a slight loss of edge in that you can't parlay 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:28.500 certain players unders like Chet Holmgren's obviously not rigging markets. 0:06:28.540 --> 0:06:30.820 He's worth hundreds of millions of dollars. He's not the 0:06:30.920 --> 0:06:33.289 one we're worried about. And so there are people who 0:06:33.330 --> 0:06:36.490 want to shoot angles of like, well, He might play 0:06:36.510 --> 0:06:38.409 way less minutes, so this is the night to parlay 0:06:38.450 --> 0:06:38.970 all his unders. 0:06:39.670 --> 0:06:40.790 Matt and Brian, it took. 0:06:40.710 --> 0:06:43.650 Zero games for me to find a spot that I 0:06:43.690 --> 0:06:48.349 would love to parlay all the unders for. And I'm 0:06:48.390 --> 0:06:51.070 just going to play his under 13.5 points. I think 0:06:51.089 --> 0:06:53.610 he can pretty much play any Chet under as a 0:06:53.650 --> 0:06:56.590 straight prop for this game and play it that way 0:06:56.630 --> 0:06:58.190 as well. But I don't think he's going to get 0:06:58.230 --> 0:07:01.850 the minutes that would be requisite for this type of average. 0:07:01.870 --> 0:07:02.570 He averaged 28.9 last season. 0:07:04.480 --> 0:07:07.100 I think he's closer in the 18 to 22 range 0:07:07.160 --> 0:07:08.840 for this game if he does play at all. 0:07:08.980 --> 0:07:10.170 And so give me the chat under. 0:07:11.350 --> 0:07:14.030 I like I go to fiddle first. 0:07:14.090 --> 0:07:14.530 Hey, fiddle. 0:07:14.550 --> 0:07:17.490 What's your first bet for the all season? Everybody's so excited. 0:07:17.550 --> 0:07:20.390 What's fiddle? What's your first bet? Oh, I bet that 50% 0:07:20.390 --> 0:07:23.830 might get voided because he won't play. That's that's my first. 0:07:24.110 --> 0:07:25.110 That's my first three star play. 0:07:25.390 --> 0:07:25.890 Won't be now. 0:07:27.890 --> 0:07:29.030 On brand Michael fiddle. 0:07:29.130 --> 0:07:29.830 All right, Brian. 0:07:29.850 --> 0:07:31.470 But second, where are you going? You're going to the 0:07:31.550 --> 0:07:33.680 late slate here. And you want to get in on 0:07:33.860 --> 0:07:39.140 everybody's favorite San Antonio guard, Dylan Harper. 0:07:40.360 --> 0:07:43.340 Dylan Harper over points, rebounds, assists, 23 and a half, 0:07:44.080 --> 0:07:46.700 which I would imagine will be a popular one since 0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:49.160 it's been announced that he'll be in the starting lineup. 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:52.140 Is it confirmed that it's going to be the four 0:07:52.200 --> 0:07:56.200 guards plus Wemby? Or are we just confirming that it's 0:07:56.250 --> 0:08:02.430 Dylan Harper in the starting lineup? Okay, so we're doing Fox, Vassell, Castle, Harper, Wemby. 0:08:02.940 --> 0:08:07.560 I kind of think Champagne should take Vassell's spot, but 0:08:08.200 --> 0:08:11.800 maybe we'll get there in November or December. Or that 0:08:11.840 --> 0:08:14.400 Harper should just take Fox's spot, but that's another conversation 0:08:14.420 --> 0:08:16.860 for another day. I don't know how long they're going 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:18.440 to do this. I don't know how long this is 0:08:18.460 --> 0:08:22.780 going to work for because I think Champagne, who Matt, 0:08:22.800 --> 0:08:26.270 you'll talk about later, is like the perfect glue guy 0:08:26.310 --> 0:08:28.350 to have in a starting lineup where you have all 0:08:28.390 --> 0:08:30.190 these ball handlers and all these guys who can create 0:08:30.230 --> 0:08:34.170 different shots. But Dylan Harper is too good to continue 0:08:34.210 --> 0:08:36.270 to bring him off the bench. He made that clear 0:08:36.290 --> 0:08:39.109 during the finals. He made that clear during the playoffs, frankly, 0:08:39.150 --> 0:08:43.300 at times during the regular season. And again, reiterated this 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:46.340 one more time, which is why he's starting now. And 0:08:46.460 --> 0:08:49.959 when he plays, he gets usage. I think as long 0:08:49.980 --> 0:08:51.760 as he's a starter all season long, I kind of 0:08:51.820 --> 0:08:55.660 expect him to be second in usage for this team. 0:08:56.380 --> 0:08:57.990 I think this is a number and this is sort 0:08:58.010 --> 0:09:00.280 of what I'm looking at on opening night. and the 0:09:00.350 --> 0:09:02.890 opening week in general, what are these early season numbers 0:09:02.910 --> 0:09:06.070 that I think are too low? If Dylan Harper is 0:09:06.130 --> 0:09:08.790 going to start, don't we think he's going to average 0:09:08.870 --> 0:09:14.209 more than 23.5 PRA during the season? Probably. Probably a 0:09:14.670 --> 0:09:17.010 decent amount more than that, if he's as good as 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:19.579 we think this second year. If that's the case, we're 0:09:19.600 --> 0:09:23.000 starting off low here. This is a theme for me. 0:09:23.559 --> 0:09:25.380 I don't know how much longer this number is going 0:09:25.400 --> 0:09:27.690 to be available. To me, I'm going to jump on it, 0:09:27.740 --> 0:09:30.780 especially against Spurs, You know, this is a rivalry matchup. 0:09:30.820 --> 0:09:33.390 Dylan Harper's had some decent games against them, against the 0:09:33.410 --> 0:09:35.849 Oklahoma City Thunder. But yeah, I think this is just 0:09:35.929 --> 0:09:41.010 me projecting what I expect from Harper during the season. 0:09:41.429 --> 0:09:43.330 And we'll start off here at 23 and a half 0:09:43.370 --> 0:09:45.240 because I don't know how much longer he's going to 0:09:45.270 --> 0:09:47.820 live in the low 20s as it relates to PRA projections. 0:09:49.260 --> 0:09:51.520 Okay. Okay. I'm a little skeptical. 0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:54.080 I think the hype around Dylan Harper is a little 0:09:54.100 --> 0:09:56.579 bit much. I think he can be a top five 0:09:56.640 --> 0:09:59.620 player in the league within like 10 years. I also 0:09:59.679 --> 0:10:01.380 think we're a little we're getting a little bit ahead 0:10:01.400 --> 0:10:05.450 of ourselves he took advantage a lot of how the 0:10:05.470 --> 0:10:07.790 knicks defended him in the finals. 0:10:08.230 --> 0:10:10.810 He just needs like a 16 7 and 4 and 0:10:10.830 --> 0:10:15.069 we're good yeah yeah it's true um That's actually way over. 0:10:15.350 --> 0:10:18.010 I did look at his three pointer prop over because 0:10:18.080 --> 0:10:20.000 of the way that the Knicks defend and pick and rolls. 0:10:20.300 --> 0:10:22.219 I think there's an opportunity there for, for Harper to 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:24.179 be able to get up. But I also looked at 0:10:24.220 --> 0:10:27.380 the matchups last year and across the course of the season, 0:10:27.400 --> 0:10:29.240 there just weren't enough catch and shoot opportunities for Harper. 0:10:29.260 --> 0:10:30.860 I still think he's going to be trigger man instead 0:10:30.880 --> 0:10:32.540 of initiator. I just don't think that they're going to 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:35.459 be like, here you go, kid, take the keys. I 0:10:35.480 --> 0:10:36.830 think it's still going to be Fox and castle and 0:10:36.850 --> 0:10:38.330 he's going to be a finisher for the most part, 0:10:38.710 --> 0:10:41.209 which means I'm worried about the assists and I'm worried 0:10:41.250 --> 0:10:44.950 a little bit about the points. but I understand you 0:10:44.970 --> 0:10:48.589 getting in on this. Should put some respect on De'Aaron 0:10:48.610 --> 0:10:52.130 Fox's name. Fox was hurt, had a bad series. Fox 0:10:52.190 --> 0:10:54.069 is still really good. They value what he does. 0:10:54.510 --> 0:10:58.320 Do you think Champagny should start for one of these guys? 0:10:58.700 --> 0:10:59.600 Is Tobias out? 0:10:59.760 --> 0:11:00.420 Did I miss this? 0:11:01.460 --> 0:11:02.880 He has a calf injury. 0:11:03.140 --> 0:11:04.400 I was going to say. 0:11:04.380 --> 0:11:07.520 Tobias should probably start when he's healthy again. 0:11:07.540 --> 0:11:09.880 I think it's probably Tobias. I don't know if that's 0:11:09.900 --> 0:11:13.140 the best one. I get what you're saying, Brian, because 0:11:13.620 --> 0:11:17.280 Champagne is just a crack shooter. He's just a crack shooter. 0:11:17.320 --> 0:11:20.680 I get it. He never needs the ball offensively. 0:11:21.460 --> 0:11:24.980 But they like having five. What the league is moving towards, 0:11:25.260 --> 0:11:27.420 and Spurs are part of this, is having five guys 0:11:27.440 --> 0:11:30.620 who can all handle, shoot, and pass. They want five 0:11:30.679 --> 0:11:34.520 interchangeable guys that nobody's a specialist. And Champagne is definitely 0:11:34.540 --> 0:11:37.040 a specialist. So I think that's one of the reasons why. 0:11:37.520 --> 0:11:39.250 I mean, but he gives you great spacing. 0:11:39.420 --> 0:11:42.610 I know. I agree, because I'm just kind of like, look, man, 0:11:42.650 --> 0:11:45.170 just run Fox pick and roll with Weminyama, and then 0:11:45.230 --> 0:11:46.690 they have to react to it, and then you just 0:11:46.710 --> 0:11:48.750 kick to the corner. If you've just done that more 0:11:48.770 --> 0:11:51.350 in the finals, maybe you don't give up the lead 0:11:51.350 --> 0:11:55.170 700 times. All right, my three-star bet of the night 0:11:55.350 --> 0:11:58.150 is going to be Nick Sixers under 231.5. I'm going 0:11:58.210 --> 0:12:02.330 head-to-head with Fiddle on this one a little bit later 0:12:02.510 --> 0:12:03.570 on in his slate. 0:12:04.750 --> 0:12:06.550 The Tuesday. 0:12:07.260 --> 0:12:11.280 the Tuesday night openers tend to go under the rate 0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:14.930 across all time has been about 60%. That has dipped 0:12:15.210 --> 0:12:19.550 in more recent years, particularly since COVID that's dipped a 0:12:19.570 --> 0:12:22.429 little bit, but I did look this up even since 0:12:22.490 --> 0:12:24.960 COVID the average total on these games is two 26 0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:27.260 and a half. This was a two 31 and I've got, 0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:33.520 A Knicks team that's probably going to be a little 0:12:33.540 --> 0:12:36.250 bit emotional. Like, this is a more emotional, I think, 0:12:36.290 --> 0:12:38.290 championship night than some others that you're going to see. Like, 0:12:38.330 --> 0:12:40.870 I don't think that the Celtics was that emotional. I 0:12:40.950 --> 0:12:42.829 honestly don't think the Thunder was that emotional because the 0:12:42.850 --> 0:12:43.770 kids are just like, this is. 0:12:43.730 --> 0:12:44.370 What we're supposed to do. 0:12:44.410 --> 0:12:47.360 Everything is easy. It's not as emotional as the Knicks 0:12:47.390 --> 0:12:51.180 because Jokic is dead inside. This one is. 0:12:51.840 --> 0:12:52.180 Denver. 0:12:52.980 --> 0:12:53.579 Yeah, Denver. Sorry. 0:12:54.420 --> 0:12:55.760 This one with the Knicks is very emotional. 0:12:56.780 --> 0:12:57.540 Right? So. 0:12:58.580 --> 0:13:00.400 I think that'll cause it. I also think that the 0:13:00.460 --> 0:13:03.060 Sixers offense, this has been my prediction is that the 0:13:03.100 --> 0:13:05.450 Sixers offense is going to be clunky to start. You 0:13:05.470 --> 0:13:08.589 got Jalen Brown, Joel and B LeBron James all operate 0:13:08.610 --> 0:13:11.210 in the same area of the court, which is essentially 0:13:11.250 --> 0:13:13.750 the nail and extended elbow areas. That's where a vast 0:13:13.809 --> 0:13:16.170 majority of their shots come from. There's too much overlap. 0:13:16.190 --> 0:13:17.790 They got to figure out how to play around each 0:13:17.830 --> 0:13:19.430 other and how to get out of each other's way. 0:13:19.450 --> 0:13:21.690 It's going to be a little clunky. And I think 0:13:21.710 --> 0:13:23.830 that that's going to be, there's going to be some turnovers. 0:13:24.570 --> 0:13:27.020 Jalen Brown will be a part of that turnover machine. Um, 0:13:28.230 --> 0:13:29.410 And I think that there will be a little bit 0:13:29.460 --> 0:13:31.790 of clunkiness and lower shooting. I don't think Dean Wade 0:13:31.820 --> 0:13:35.040 will play enough to adequately space. The bench might space 0:13:35.059 --> 0:13:37.560 appropriately for Philly. So I'm a little bit worried about, 0:13:38.500 --> 0:13:42.060 especially like any lineup that is maxi and in bead 0:13:42.300 --> 0:13:44.780 with Simon spacing. I'm going to be like, oh no, 0:13:45.179 --> 0:13:48.600 that's going to boost this over. But I do think 0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:50.680 the starters are likely to play heavy minutes. I think 0:13:50.700 --> 0:13:51.900 it's going to be clunky. I think it's going to 0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:54.390 be awkward. I think the trend's, play towards an under 0:13:54.710 --> 0:13:56.410 i think this line is higher than what you're what 0:13:56.429 --> 0:13:58.210 you're average going to see for an opener in this 0:13:58.230 --> 0:13:59.870 kind of spot so i'm going to take the next 0:14:00.170 --> 0:14:04.109 next six years under 231 and a half um let's 0:14:04.150 --> 0:14:06.230 go ahead and hit to get this out of the 0:14:06.270 --> 0:14:09.230 way fiddles one star because fiddles going against me on 0:14:09.270 --> 0:14:12.550 this nick sixers he's taking the over 231 and a 0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:13.900 half it'll give me your cap. 0:14:14.140 --> 0:14:16.300 Yeah i like how you preference prefaced in the beginning 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:19.450 like one star is kind of like lean or or 0:14:19.570 --> 0:14:22.870 less of a of a big play because I took 0:14:22.870 --> 0:14:26.250 228 and a half towards the over um like weeks 0:14:26.310 --> 0:14:28.270 ago when these lines were first starting to come out 0:14:28.650 --> 0:14:31.800 so it's gone up a little bit it's it actually 0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:33.680 hit 233 and a half and it started to work 0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:36.240 its way back down I'm still like subjectively a little 0:14:36.260 --> 0:14:38.140 bit on the over here but I don't think market 0:14:38.160 --> 0:14:40.760 wise there's like huge value either way I think the 0:14:40.780 --> 0:14:43.360 number is pretty sharp at this point But I do 0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:47.070 think that, you know, they the Sixers often started to 0:14:47.090 --> 0:14:49.030 play a lot better last year when they were willing 0:14:49.090 --> 0:14:52.070 to leave Joel Embiid in the dust and kind of 0:14:52.090 --> 0:14:54.270 just run transition and be like, if you don't cross 0:14:54.290 --> 0:14:55.810 half court by the time we get our shots up, 0:14:55.830 --> 0:14:57.510 that's OK. We're not going to wait for you to 0:14:57.550 --> 0:15:00.040 plot up. So I think they're still going to run 0:15:00.100 --> 0:15:03.340 between Edgecombe, Brown, Maxie and LeBron. I think they're still 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:05.400 going to run in transition a lot. And I think 0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:07.540 the Knicks are going to try and counteract and run 0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:09.800 a lot in their own transition as well. And then 0:15:09.820 --> 0:15:13.180 you spoke to it well, the Sixers bench unit. I 0:15:13.240 --> 0:15:15.560 actually have a lot of faith into score. And so 0:15:15.620 --> 0:15:18.580 I think that Dean Wade with Simon's combo is just 0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:20.500 going to be really well spaced out and going to 0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:21.420 be able to shoot really well. 0:15:22.420 --> 0:15:24.710 So for those reasons, I still do like the over. 0:15:24.730 --> 0:15:26.760 I think there's a little bit of an overreaction in 0:15:26.780 --> 0:15:30.710 market to the new rules about hand checking and illegal 0:15:30.790 --> 0:15:33.250 screens and those points of emphasis that the refs laid 0:15:33.310 --> 0:15:36.650 out there. So I still like the over subjectively, but 0:15:36.810 --> 0:15:38.729 it's one star because I don't think the number is 0:15:38.750 --> 0:15:41.180 going to move too much in either direction anymore. 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:42.940 Okay. 0:15:43.000 --> 0:15:45.180 Before we continue, let's get to a quick word from 0:15:45.420 --> 0:15:50.160 our sponsor at DraftKings. Buckets is sponsored by DraftKings, where 0:15:50.210 --> 0:15:53.970 new customers can turn $ 5 into $ 200 in total bonus 0:15:54.010 --> 0:15:57.489 rewards this basketball season. DraftKings Sports is now available in 0:15:57.650 --> 0:16:00.690 all 50 states, bringing the excitement straight to your fingertips, 0:16:00.790 --> 0:16:04.280 no matter where you're watching. From Florida to Texas to California, 0:16:04.580 --> 0:16:08.000 you'll never miss a beat. Follow every moment, every matchup, 0:16:08.100 --> 0:16:11.240 and every highlight in a seamless experience all in one app. 0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:13.480 So if you're new to DraftKings, be sure to sign 0:16:13.540 --> 0:16:17.160 up with code BUCKETS. Spend $ 5 and get $ 200 in 0:16:17.420 --> 0:16:22.520 total rewards. That's code BUCKETS. Download the DraftKings Sports app 0:16:22.540 --> 0:16:26.350 and keep basketball at your fingertips all season long. DraftKings, 0:16:26.870 --> 0:16:30.270 the crown is yours. All right, let's get to the 0:16:30.330 --> 0:16:33.130 two-star bets. I'm going to go back to Brian Fonseca. 0:16:33.630 --> 0:16:36.910 who's got to play on a Boston Celtics shooter, which 0:16:36.950 --> 0:16:38.130 I know he's got to be thrilled about. 0:16:40.900 --> 0:16:44.620 Be careful. Um, Peyton Pritchard over 15 and a half 0:16:44.680 --> 0:16:50.900 points in the 3 PM game, which I don't know 0:16:50.940 --> 0:16:52.460 why we're doing that. I don't know what the point 0:16:52.500 --> 0:16:55.160 of that is, but okay. Uh, maybe it'll work. Maybe 0:16:55.180 --> 0:16:57.280 it'll draw a great number. I don't know. Um, it 0:16:57.300 --> 0:17:01.460 probably will be on in every bar in the country. Uh, 0:17:01.500 --> 0:17:05.800 so that'll help the ratings. Um, I think Peyton Pritchard's 0:17:06.060 --> 0:17:10.580 speaking back to or touching on again what I mentioned 0:17:10.640 --> 0:17:14.940 earlier in terms of guys outperforming their projections. I think 0:17:15.020 --> 0:17:16.879 we're going to get a lot of 20-point games from 0:17:16.920 --> 0:17:19.139 Peyton Pritchard this year. I'm going to stop short of 0:17:19.180 --> 0:17:21.280 saying he's going to average 20. I don't know if 0:17:21.380 --> 0:17:23.980 that's going to be the case, but I think he's 0:17:24.000 --> 0:17:26.980 going to have a bunch of games as he has 0:17:27.030 --> 0:17:29.430 in previous years, but more so this year because without 0:17:29.470 --> 0:17:31.970 Jalen Brown, I don't think this is going to be 0:17:31.990 --> 0:17:35.910 a one-person game swallows up all the usage that Jalen 0:17:35.930 --> 0:17:37.830 Brown sort of left on the table. Obviously you just 0:17:37.890 --> 0:17:41.360 reinsert Jason Tatum and he's going to do a lot 0:17:41.380 --> 0:17:45.580 of that, but with better playmaking. And I think Paul 0:17:45.619 --> 0:17:48.840 George fits in pretty seamlessly, but I think Peyton Pritchard 0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:52.370 is probably the guy who levels up the most relative 0:17:52.390 --> 0:17:55.409 to like all the other guys who are not stars 0:17:55.470 --> 0:17:57.949 on the Celtics team. Like this is a number that 0:17:57.990 --> 0:18:01.760 I think he's going to exceed like, pretty much like, 0:18:02.100 --> 0:18:04.520 like pretty often early on in the year to where 0:18:04.540 --> 0:18:06.340 we're starting to see 17 and a half, 18 and 0:18:06.380 --> 0:18:08.280 a half and things of that nature. I know this 0:18:08.340 --> 0:18:10.659 isn't like the, the best matchup for it, but I 0:18:10.700 --> 0:18:13.380 also don't know what to expect of Detroit defensively this 0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:15.460 year relative to before. I still think there'll be a 0:18:15.530 --> 0:18:18.629 really good defense, but you know, the personnel is slightly different. 0:18:18.650 --> 0:18:20.730 We have to see how that goes, but I think 0:18:20.770 --> 0:18:22.590 Peyton Pritchard will be able to get to his three 0:18:22.630 --> 0:18:24.790 point shot in this game. He'll be able to get 0:18:24.850 --> 0:18:28.560 some of these pull-up looks and, With the focus of, 0:18:28.859 --> 0:18:31.710 you know, Jason Tatum commanding a lot of the focus. 0:18:32.210 --> 0:18:34.629 And just overall, I don't care what his role is 0:18:34.690 --> 0:18:36.820 in terms of whether he actually ends up getting into 0:18:36.840 --> 0:18:38.679 the starting lineup at some point, whether he comes off 0:18:38.720 --> 0:18:41.820 the bench. Obviously, if he's a six-man, it's easier for 0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:44.679 him to sort of lead that second unit. But I 0:18:44.720 --> 0:18:47.160 just think he's going to get a lot of opportunities now. 0:18:47.240 --> 0:18:49.660 He's probably going to be the person who statistically benefits 0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:53.690 the most from Jalen Brown being gone. From a shock 0:18:53.750 --> 0:18:56.110 race standpoint, they need him. From a three-point standpoint, they're 0:18:56.130 --> 0:18:57.710 going to need him. He's just going to get a 0:18:57.730 --> 0:19:00.050 lot of opportunities, and I think this number's a little 0:19:00.070 --> 0:19:01.020 bit low to start out. 0:19:02.010 --> 0:19:05.129 Yeah, this is a pretty baffling line. I understand that 0:19:05.170 --> 0:19:07.330 they're basing it off of the preseason where he was 0:19:07.350 --> 0:19:10.250 still coming off the bench. I'm not convinced. Like, I 0:19:10.270 --> 0:19:12.560 wouldn't be surprised if he started game one. Would not 0:19:12.600 --> 0:19:14.100