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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that Action boss.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go. We're throwing out, so we're

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Speaker 1: sitting at the cash to stop.

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Speaker 2: We'll see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to wind.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to make money,

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Speaker 1: all right. That is the ultimate kabay you want to pull.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Wes Reynolds,

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Speaker 2: and we have a very special episode. We're ready for

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Speaker 2: the NFL season, which is ten days away, and I'm

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Speaker 2: sure most of our listeners out there are going to

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Speaker 2: be participating in NFL pools, whether they are pick'am pools

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Speaker 2: or Survivor pools, whatever the case may be. The NFL

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Speaker 2: pools are in credit, incredibly popular and they're an easy

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Speaker 2: way to stay invested during the season. I get in

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Speaker 2: entries in the Circus Survivor, which I'm sure all of

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Speaker 2: our listeners know about here in Las Vegas. There's also

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Speaker 2: pools that you might play with your buddies. There's various

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Speaker 2: contests out there. I know where it just pick the winner.

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Speaker 2: Because that's easy enough right in the NFL to just

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Speaker 2: pick the winner. Let alone getting spreads involved with the

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Speaker 2: Circa Million or the Super Contest at Westgate, what have you.

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Speaker 2: So I'm actually really excited for this program because I

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Speaker 2: want to talk to this man who's an expert in

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Speaker 2: the field of NFL pool strategy. And that man is

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Speaker 2: Jason Lisk, who joins us from Pool Genius, which is

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Speaker 2: a company that's become the top rated source for algorithmic

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Speaker 2: NFL pool picks strategy. And this season, by the way,

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Speaker 2: Action Network is joining forces with pool Genius for Survivor

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Speaker 2: and Pick Them pool content because they offer the most

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Speaker 2: in depth, customizable NFL pool advice for anything found anywhere. Really,

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Speaker 2: So Jason, want to welcome you into the show and

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Speaker 2: tell us a little bit about what you guys at

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Speaker 2: Pool Genius are doing that kind of stands apart in

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Speaker 2: terms of our listeners that can compete in NFL pools.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we've been providing customized pool pick advice and tools

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Speaker 3: for over a decade on things ranging from NFL Contest,

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Speaker 3: March Madness Contest, We've got golf contests, but we're gonna

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Speaker 3: talk NFL today. We have Survivor pool products that will

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Speaker 3: both give you customized advice for up to thirty entries

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Speaker 3: of picks. You can set up as many pools to

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Speaker 3: get to that thirty entries, thirty live entries and generate picks.

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Speaker 3: You input all your rules, how big your pools are,

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Speaker 3: are they strike pools, Is there multi picks, does that

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Speaker 3: have special rules? All that stuff, and we give different

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Speaker 3: advice based on the rules of your pool, the size

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Speaker 3: of your pool, what's remaining. We have tools that will

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Speaker 3: map you through the season. We'll give you an ev calculator,

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Speaker 3: all sorts of stuff there. On the pick them side,

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Speaker 3: we have pick them that will cover spread, game winner confidence,

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Speaker 3: weekly contests which are very different from full season contest

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Speaker 3: and how you want to play it. And so we

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Speaker 3: have tools and on the pick them front or football

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Speaker 3: pool front in general, those are unlimited. You can set

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Speaker 3: up as many pools. If you're a subscriber, you can

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Speaker 3: set them up, set the rules, get advice there.

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Speaker 2: So Jason lead in maybe with a little bit of

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Speaker 2: background on pool Genius, where you got started, how you

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Speaker 2: got started, and if you have any data since you've

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Speaker 2: been in operation, how the subscribers perform in their pools

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Speaker 2: versus the non subscribers, shall we say, the.

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Speaker 3: Website Teamerankings dot com that's our parents' site. Team Rankings

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Speaker 3: has the stats. We've got the subscription stuff with pool

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Speaker 3: Advice at pool Genius and like I said, been doing

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Speaker 3: it for over a decade. On the Survivor front, customers

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Speaker 3: reported winning three acts four x what we expect based

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Speaker 3: on them telling is their pool size. And so we've

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Speaker 3: shown that across the variety of pool sizes. As you

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Speaker 3: might expect, our edge goes up the larger the pool,

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Speaker 3: but the odds of winning are still small in those pools.

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Speaker 3: But we can increase our edge the more people we

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Speaker 3: play against, just because those pools are astronomical.

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Speaker 2: So we have a lot of listeners here at the

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Speaker 2: Action Network podcasts and they're thinking, Okay, how can I

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Speaker 2: get advantage over over the others in the Survivor and

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Speaker 2: the pick and pools, which we're gonna separate and discuss

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Speaker 2: individually by the way in that podcast. But for those

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Speaker 2: listeners that are looking for that advantage this season, you

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Speaker 2: can access a free trial of Pool Genius and Jason

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Speaker 2: and his team's fine work over there for NFL Week one,

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Speaker 2: And by doing that, you go to poolgenius dot com

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Speaker 2: slash Action, where you can receive up to fifty percent

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Speaker 2: off of that subscription. And again that's poolgenius dot com

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Speaker 2: slash Action or just follow the link in the description

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Speaker 2: when this episode drops. So we're gonna get to the

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Speaker 2: good stuff here, but we're gonna split them up a

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Speaker 2: little bit because there's different strategies for different pools based

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Speaker 2: on the size of the pool, how you know, how

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Speaker 2: many you're in it, how the money involved, and just

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Speaker 2: the different strategies. So there's two popular types of NFL pools.

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Speaker 2: There's survivor pools and there's pick and pools. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: start with Survivor. Of course, that's what everybody talks about,

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Speaker 2: especially the Circa contest here in Las Vegas.

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Speaker 1: Everybody's getting their proxies.

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Speaker 2: I know you were in town here, Jason, and you

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Speaker 2: saw all of them all throughout the week, and everybody's

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Speaker 2: getting their proxies, getting their entries, getting there, getting their

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Speaker 2: thousand dollars hat that they get every year for Circus Survivor. So,

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Speaker 2: from a data perspective, what are the most importance to

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Speaker 2: components to consider before you're selecting your Survivor pool pick

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Speaker 2: and how do you sign value to those picks?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, There's three main things you got to consider each

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Speaker 3: week as you look not only is that week but

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Speaker 3: the entire season. Right, there's the odds of winning, or

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Speaker 3: you could reverse it, the odds of losing. Right, So

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Speaker 3: what is your risk? What is your chance to advance

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Speaker 3: that week by picking a certain team versus a different team,

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Speaker 3: So you want to look at the relative odds there.

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Speaker 3: You want to think about popularity in the contest. This

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Speaker 3: is particularly true in contests they can go deep in

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Speaker 3: the season, but there can be a solo winner. You

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Speaker 3: definitely want to think about how can I leverage so

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Speaker 3: when I get my outcomes right, I win more money

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Speaker 3: by getting a much higher pot share because there's fewer

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Speaker 3: people splitting with me or getting to the end with me.

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Speaker 3: And then the third factor's future value because in Survivor pool,

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Speaker 3: as you know, you can pick each team only once,

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Speaker 3: and so there's only a select number of really top

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Speaker 3: NFL teams that are going to be favored by a

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Speaker 3: lot more than three or four times through the year.

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Speaker 3: There's a handful that will be favored in many weeks,

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Speaker 3: and then most teams you're trying to find the right

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Speaker 3: matchup the right week, So planning out your future, or

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Speaker 3: at least having an eye toward the future is that

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Speaker 3: third tenant. And so with picks, you want to balance

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Speaker 3: all three of those what gives you the best, because

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Speaker 3: some picks may give you really good and two and

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Speaker 3: then you're sacrificing the third. But those are the choices

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Speaker 3: you have to make.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely right. And then different pools obviously have different rules.

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Speaker 2: And Circus Survivor, of course you get a separate week

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Speaker 2: for the Thanksgiving Day Black Friday games, and then you

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Speaker 2: also get the Christmas Holiday games, so you've got to

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Speaker 2: be a little bit different than if it's like, okay,

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Speaker 2: week one, Week two, Week three, Week four, all the

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Speaker 2: week way through week eighteen. So that's another wrinkle that's

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Speaker 2: thrown into this thing. And then look, I think with Survivor,

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Speaker 2: everybody kind of looks at the name of the contest.

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Speaker 2: Literally it's like, oh, I just want to survive in

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Speaker 2: advance the proverbial Jim Valvano saying when NC State ran

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Speaker 2: it all the way to the nineteen eighty three national championship,

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Speaker 2: that's what they typically want to do. However, you know,

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Speaker 2: you want to win, you want to put yourself you know,

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Speaker 2: you just don't want to Oh, I made it to

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Speaker 2: week ten. You know how much money the equity did

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Speaker 2: you really get out of that? You want to get

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Speaker 2: in position to be in position, shall we say? And

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Speaker 2: I think that that's a very key in terms of survivor.

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Speaker 2: So talk a little bit about the rules in terms

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Speaker 2: of a survivor pool that I mentioned just briefly. How

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Speaker 2: does that impact the value of a pick and what

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Speaker 2: are some important other rules to be aware of, Like,

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Speaker 2: you know, how is a tie broken if you're in

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Speaker 2: maybe maybe a smaller pool, you know, with your buddies

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Speaker 2: or friends at the office, what have you let alone

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Speaker 2: a big contest like Circus Survivor.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll talk through a variety of rules of what

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Speaker 3: we see because our subscribers play all types and we

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Speaker 3: hear about it and we and we cover them first

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Speaker 3: on the circa front. Right with the two holiday weeks,

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Speaker 3: I do want to throw out there that new for

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty five, if you're watching this, we're going to

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Speaker 3: have tools that account for for the first time this year.

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Speaker 3: I've written articles in the past on the contest with

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Speaker 3: my thoughts of the holidays and how to play things,

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Speaker 3: but this year we're gonna have some tools related to

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Speaker 3: that as well. So if you're a subscriber, that's gonna

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Speaker 3: be something and you've been with us in the past,

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Speaker 3: that's gonna be a new feature. You're gonna see more

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Speaker 3: about Circa in twenty twenty five. Now turning to Circa

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Speaker 3: and other rules, the Circa rule is the two pick

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Speaker 3: weeks on the holidays, right, and that creates a different

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Speaker 3: dynamic there than a lot of other contests. It's somewhat

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Speaker 3: similar to a multi pickpool with two weeks. It's not

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Speaker 3: exactly the same because you got to pick from a

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Speaker 3: specific subset, whereas like in a lot of multi pickpools,

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Speaker 3: you're like pick two teams out of this slate. But

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Speaker 3: those those do both put more pressure on you to

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Speaker 3: save teams, right, And so that's one rule we're going

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Speaker 3: to account for. We see all types in that I

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Speaker 3: play in a lot that'll be week picked two after

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Speaker 3: week thirteen, and that'll really thin out large contests. And

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Speaker 3: I want a solo one that had several thousand entries

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Speaker 3: last year in week eighteen in a multipick format like that,

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Speaker 3: And so we handle that. You can input which weeks

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Speaker 3: you have multipicks. We'll provide you advice on that. Another

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Speaker 3: big one we see two variations strikes and rebuys. Strikes

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Speaker 3: are where you get automatically get to revive your entries,

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Speaker 3: so it's like if you take a loss, you're still

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Speaker 3: alive after the first loss or however many strikes your

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Speaker 3: pool allows. Other pools are rebuy pools or mulligan pools

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Speaker 3: where you can buy back in or they call it

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Speaker 3: buybacks as well, and so you might hear that term there.

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Speaker 3: You have to pay for the honor of coming back in,

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Speaker 3: but you can still revive your entry, so there is

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Speaker 3: a cost to it above and beyond, but both require

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Speaker 3: a little different strategy. Like in those you might think

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Speaker 3: about being a little riskier because you know the pool

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Speaker 3: is probably going to go deeper. You know there are

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Speaker 3: going to be more entries that extend because they do

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Speaker 3: get to use those strikes, and so you have to

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Speaker 3: think about maybe taking some chances, being willing to risk

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Speaker 3: a strike to get deep into the season with the

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Speaker 3: best teams. So that's that's another varias. And then we

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Speaker 3: see all sorts of types like pools that extend into

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Speaker 3: the playoffs, bye week pools where you can choose when

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Speaker 3: to drop a by and you don't want to make

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Speaker 3: a pick. Those pools exist, they're much smaller, but we

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Speaker 3: do have subscribers to play in those.

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Speaker 1: Polls, and there's a little bit of a crossover.

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Speaker 2: Like we talk about that survive and advanced principle in Survivor,

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Speaker 2: there's a little bit of a crossover too in pick

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Speaker 2: them pools, even though we were sticking with Survivor for

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Speaker 2: the basis of this discussion for now, but there's a

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Speaker 2: little bit of crossover I think with like pick them

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Speaker 2: pools or even spread pools. It's like, Okay, you know,

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Speaker 2: how do I handle this to start the season? You

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Speaker 2: know I want to do I want to go against

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Speaker 2: the grain? Do I want to be contrarian right away?

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Speaker 2: Or is it just okay, pick a bunch of winners,

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Speaker 2: you know, as early as you can and just keep

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Speaker 2: yourself in position. So when do you think is the

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Speaker 2: right time to kind of make maybe some of the

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Speaker 2: riskier decisions, because we know mostly Survivor players more often

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Speaker 2: than not, they're gonna be on the teams with the

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Speaker 2: biggest spread on the board on on any given week

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Speaker 2: NFL cards, so they're gonna play the biggest favorite, or

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Speaker 2: maybe some are a little bit lukewarm about playing divisional

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Speaker 2: games because the divisional games, even though there are less

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Speaker 2: of them, they matter more because they decide to type

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Speaker 2: breakers on who wins the division. So when do you

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Speaker 2: think is is there really one specific right time to

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Speaker 2: make those riskier decisions in these survivor pools?

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Speaker 1: You know there's.

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Speaker 3: You gotta there is a general time where here's what

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Speaker 3: I would say, right, especially in large pools where you're

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Speaker 3: gonna go deep into the season, and that's generally most pools,

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Speaker 3: right unless you're playing with like thirty buddies where you

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Speaker 3: could end in week six seven. Most most pools, even

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Speaker 3: if they get wiped out, they're gonna still have people

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Speaker 3: that are There's still gonna be some that are going

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Speaker 3: into Thanksgiving and beyond. If your pool goes deep into

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Speaker 3: the season, let's say you got you're gonna have to

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Speaker 3: make sixteen picks, eighteen picks. Well, go look at the

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Speaker 3: NFL list. Teams go down sixteen or eighteen. Those are

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Speaker 3: the kinds of teams are gonna have to be picking.

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Speaker 3: So the question is when do you want to pick them?

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Speaker 1: Right?

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Speaker 3: Do I want to pick them when others aren't picking them?

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Speaker 3: That type of team, or do I want to pick

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Speaker 3: them when people feel like they have to pick them

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Speaker 3: because that's all they have left. So generally speaking, you

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Speaker 3: want to get your money in when people aren't picking

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Speaker 3: that team. That maybe early, but you got to keep

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Speaker 3: an eye on how people are behaving.

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Speaker 1: Last year.

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Speaker 3: If you look at the circuit winners, the teams they

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Speaker 3: picked that ended up that ended up with poor records,

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Speaker 3: most of those were early in the season and those

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Speaker 3: entries that one had the good teams from week six on.

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Speaker 3: They got it through early. With the Jets who ended

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Speaker 3: up having not a great season, they used San Francisco early.

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Speaker 3: San Francisco kind of tanked late so they were able

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Speaker 3: to like hit the right teams that weren't necessarily needed

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Speaker 3: late in the year and then they had the good

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Speaker 3: teams save. So I would generally think about being contrarian

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Speaker 3: more when other people aren't. And so if that tends

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Speaker 3: to be people are using the biggest favorites early because

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Speaker 3: they have them. The best time to have those favorites

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Speaker 3: is when they're a ten point favorite and only five

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Speaker 3: percent of the pools on and twenty percent on the

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Speaker 3: four point favorite, because they have to.

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Speaker 2: Be Now you actually had experience with this, I believe

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Speaker 2: last year. I think I think in Week five you

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Speaker 2: went with the Jacksonville Jaguars. You were a brave man

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Speaker 2: as the Jags were zero to four in week number five.

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Speaker 2: So how did that eventually turn out for you in

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Speaker 2: terms of your slate for the twenty twenty four season.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I had to make that pick in a pool

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Speaker 3: that was my multi entry win. So I knew I had.

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Speaker 3: You know, I'm not playing for week five. I'm not

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Speaker 3: playing to survive week five. I'm not playing like you

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Speaker 3: talked about. We call it survivor.

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Speaker 2: But you want to thrive, You've got to be willing

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Speaker 2: to bust out in week number one.

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Speaker 1: You just have to.

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Speaker 2: And a lot of people maybe don't have that attitude,

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Speaker 2: and we'll get to pool player behavior momentarily, but continue,

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Speaker 2: you have.

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Speaker 3: To be willing to thrive. You have to be willing

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Speaker 3: to take that chance to set yourself up to have

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Speaker 3: the hammer late. And so I know in that pool,

294
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Speaker 3: if I'm gonna win it, I'm gonna need the used

295
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Speaker 3: teams like Jacksonville at some point, right and because they're

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Speaker 3: zero and four and because they're only I think at

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Speaker 3: three and a half, that was the week I think

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Speaker 3: Flaco started for the Colts and it ended up being

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Speaker 3: a shootout. It was a sweat, but you're gonna have

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Speaker 3: sweats and survivor, you know. But the two favorites that

301
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Speaker 3: week were San Francisco Seattle, and both those teams ended

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Speaker 3: up busting out, so it worked out great. And then

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Speaker 3: that entry had used Jacksonville. Well, now an entry that's

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Speaker 3: used Jacksonville, how many times do you want to use them?

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Speaker 1: Last year?

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Speaker 3: Not very often. So that entry still had Baltimore, Philadelphia,

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00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:35,520
Speaker 3: Kansas City, Buffalo teams like that. As it got into

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Speaker 3: the latter half of the season, when other entries were

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Speaker 3: kind of struggling and on the same teams, and so

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Speaker 3: when certain things happened, I benefited. And then of course

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Speaker 3: I was able to benefit when the Colts took a

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Speaker 3: Week seventeen loss and I was one of the few,

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Speaker 3: one of two that did not pick them in that contest.

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Speaker 2: And another thing and another aspect of this, as you

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Speaker 2: get later in the season and saving some of the

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00:14:57,040 --> 00:15:00,320
Speaker 2: premium teams, some of those premium teams are going to

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Speaker 2: be playing for playoff or divisional positioning there at the end,

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Speaker 2: and then some are going to have it locked up too,

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Speaker 2: so you may have you know, a couple of those

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Speaker 2: premium teams late that it's like, oh, they've already wrapped

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Speaker 2: up home field, so they're going to sit guys week eighteen.

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Speaker 2: So that's just what's going to happen. But I think

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Speaker 2: it's better to have more than less, at least that

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Speaker 2: gives you more options. So, Jason, let me ask you,

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Speaker 2: and I just touched upon it a minute ago, about

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Speaker 2: the behavior of the Survivor pool players, especially with the

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Speaker 2: more popular that the circuit Survivor has certainly gotten. How

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00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:36,400
Speaker 2: have you seen the players behave a little bit differently

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Speaker 2: over time than maybe you might have saw a few

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Speaker 2: years ago.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I think we're still trying to figure out what the

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00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,240
Speaker 3: impact of things like this massive Survivor, Like I think

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00:15:45,280 --> 00:15:48,680
Speaker 3: it's going to get more and more popular and more famous,

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Speaker 3: slash notorious, and what impact that has.

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Speaker 2: And I just want to interject really quickly, I think

337
00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:56,920
Speaker 2: the appeal of Survivor because at first I'm like, man,

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00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:59,320
Speaker 2: all these people are getting Survivor and they're ignoring the

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00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:02,760
Speaker 2: million They're already ignoring the super contest. Because one of

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00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:04,840
Speaker 2: the things that I have observed in talking to some

341
00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:07,720
Speaker 2: of these Survivor players that have been successful, whether it's

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00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:09,960
Speaker 2: a group or whether it's an individual, over the years,

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00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:13,720
Speaker 2: they feel like every man can win it. Like the

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00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:16,960
Speaker 2: everyman does not feel I don't think like he or

345
00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:18,280
Speaker 2: she can win the million.

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00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:20,320
Speaker 1: It's like, oh, there are too many.

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00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:23,320
Speaker 2: Pros, you know, in these contests or in the super

348
00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:24,840
Speaker 2: Contest or what have you.

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Speaker 1: It seems to me.

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Speaker 2: And I don't know if you agree with this or

351
00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:30,440
Speaker 2: if you've talked to folks that feel the same way.

352
00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:33,680
Speaker 2: The every man feels like he can win the Survivor

353
00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:36,680
Speaker 2: because it seems like a simple process. Pick one team,

354
00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:39,720
Speaker 2: no point spread to advance where it's like, oh, I

355
00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:41,800
Speaker 2: can't beat that. I can't beat like, you know, a

356
00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,400
Speaker 2: guy it's been a pro better for thirty or forty years.

357
00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:45,760
Speaker 2: Those guys are too sharp for me.

358
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I definitely think there's something to that. I think

359
00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:53,200
Speaker 3: there's an appeal that it's it's a long shot contest, right,

360
00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:57,240
Speaker 3: Like it's a long shot contest where you pick favorites,

361
00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:00,200
Speaker 3: which which sounds sort of counterteitive, right, But because because

362
00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:03,200
Speaker 3: of the cumulative effect that upsets happened, it's really hard

363
00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:06,120
Speaker 3: to get through very far. But it's a long shot contest,

364
00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:08,640
Speaker 3: so that I think plays. People love parlays, They love

365
00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:12,720
Speaker 3: plus ten thousand bets, they love to take long shots

366
00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:15,719
Speaker 3: and seventeen parlays, and so this is this is basically

367
00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:17,879
Speaker 3: a twenty team parlay. You're playing, right, You got to

368
00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:20,520
Speaker 3: hit twenty winners to win circuit and a lot of

369
00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:23,359
Speaker 3: these big survivor pools. So it has that appeal, It

370
00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,520
Speaker 3: has the simplicity you mentioned, and I do think it

371
00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:28,880
Speaker 3: has in some ways, it's a lot like poker. Right

372
00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:30,760
Speaker 3: when we saw the rise of World Series of Poker,

373
00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:35,960
Speaker 3: it's anybody can get to that final table. I mean

374
00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:39,040
Speaker 3: there are sixteen in a chair, right, Yeah, there are

375
00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,840
Speaker 3: sixteen winners on every NFL schedule. I mean half the

376
00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:45,840
Speaker 3: teams are gonna win, except for ties, which we mentioned

377
00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:48,080
Speaker 3: that that those eliminate both of you. But for the

378
00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:52,280
Speaker 3: most part, there's half winners out there available to you. Now,

379
00:17:52,840 --> 00:17:55,040
Speaker 3: does that mean that everybody has the same chance.

380
00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:55,199
Speaker 2: No.

381
00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:58,760
Speaker 3: I think having a smart process a strategy, just like poker,

382
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,400
Speaker 3: you may catch the wrong cards in a certain year,

383
00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:04,600
Speaker 3: but if you're a better process player, you have an

384
00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:07,280
Speaker 3: advantage over the average player. Your odds are still small,

385
00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:11,280
Speaker 3: but they're better than most. So yeah, everybody's live. Everybody's live,

386
00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:14,160
Speaker 3: and having a process still gives you an edge.

387
00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:16,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely right.

388
00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:19,320
Speaker 2: And you know, in terms of the behavior, do you

389
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:23,240
Speaker 2: find that a lot of the players maybe are becoming

390
00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:25,840
Speaker 2: a little bit more or becoming a little bit more sharper.

391
00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:28,240
Speaker 2: And I know that's hard because there's so many entries

392
00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:30,440
Speaker 2: in the field, and these folks are from all over

393
00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:34,000
Speaker 2: the country. So in terms of if they are regular betters,

394
00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:36,600
Speaker 2: like if they're just betting the board on any given

395
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,919
Speaker 2: NFL week, you will find every different dynamic. You will find,

396
00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:42,400
Speaker 2: you know, your sharper betters. You will find your more

397
00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:46,119
Speaker 2: square or public, whatever adjective you want to use to describe.

398
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,640
Speaker 2: You'll find betters that like to play a lot of dogs.

399
00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:51,320
Speaker 2: You find betters that like to play a lot of favorites.

400
00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:55,000
Speaker 2: But have you found that in this Survivor Pool contest

401
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:58,359
Speaker 2: that the players have become sharper with the popularity of

402
00:18:58,359 --> 00:18:59,040
Speaker 2: these contests?

403
00:18:59,320 --> 00:18:59,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think.

404
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,360
Speaker 3: I think, I think the higher percentage of sharper than

405
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:07,119
Speaker 3: maybe a decade ago. I think there's still squares in

406
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,560
Speaker 3: every contest. There's still dead money, there's still people that'll

407
00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:13,119
Speaker 3: either mispicks or make make poor strategic choices. But I

408
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,280
Speaker 3: do think more people have ac I mean, you know,

409
00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:17,639
Speaker 3: you can just like books are sharper, I think in

410
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,720
Speaker 3: some ways in the sense that they're aware of what

411
00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:21,639
Speaker 3: other books are posting, and so they aren't going to

412
00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:23,840
Speaker 3: get caught on a bad line as quickly as they

413
00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:27,000
Speaker 3: were a decade ago. And so I think cole players

414
00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,719
Speaker 3: are more aware of what the lines are, and so

415
00:19:29,760 --> 00:19:32,840
Speaker 3: they're not going to generally be taking like two point

416
00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:37,080
Speaker 3: dogs and survival bulls, and so I think you're mostly

417
00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:38,840
Speaker 3: going to get the favorite. I think you still get

418
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:44,040
Speaker 3: people concentrated on certain popular choices, but I do think

419
00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:47,359
Speaker 3: in general that like the egregious strategic mistakes are minimized

420
00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:49,359
Speaker 3: compared to what I saw five years ago.

421
00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:53,720
Speaker 2: So, Jason, let's transition over to the Pickham Pools here,

422
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:58,400
Speaker 2: because even though the survivor, especially in the Circa contest,

423
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:02,359
Speaker 2: has gotten more entries than the million for a variety

424
00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:05,880
Speaker 2: of reasons, there are still those that have that amprehension.

425
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:07,800
Speaker 2: It's like, well, I don't want to lose a thousand

426
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:10,359
Speaker 2: bucks after week number one. I want a chance if

427
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:13,479
Speaker 2: I start out bad that I can play through the season.

428
00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,400
Speaker 2: And that's why the pick'm pools are are are popular.

429
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:19,800
Speaker 2: Westgate Super Contest. Of course, Jay Cornegay and the guys

430
00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:22,480
Speaker 2: started at All many years ago, and now the circum million.

431
00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 2: You pay that entry fee thousand dollars, fifteen hundred, whatever

432
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,440
Speaker 2: it is, and there's even smaller contests out there at

433
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:30,880
Speaker 2: different books across the country. And then you picked five

434
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:34,040
Speaker 2: games against the number each week for the entire season.

435
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:37,080
Speaker 2: And we've seen versions of this copied and adjusted, like

436
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,720
Speaker 2: I said, with other books. But all you have to

437
00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:43,200
Speaker 2: do you got to pick five a week, run really good,

438
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 2: you know, get the back doors in your favor, avoid

439
00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:51,199
Speaker 2: you know, the bad turnover in your own territory, avoid

440
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:54,120
Speaker 2: that late pick six when you're taking it, when you're

441
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 2: taking a dog and you're just you're inside the number,

442
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 2: and then all of a sudden you're not. Just have

443
00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:00,159
Speaker 2: a great betting season, start to finish. That's all you

444
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 2: got to do, right, and you win a million dollars. So,

445
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 2: in terms of what you guys do at Pool, Genius

446
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 2: explain kind of the maybe the basics for those that

447
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,359
Speaker 2: might be first timers, because there's always first timer. I

448
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,840
Speaker 2: just met one this morning. Yeah, my first time signing

449
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 2: up flew into town, and what do you think the

450
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 2: big difference are between like those first timers, those novice

451
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 2: and then the pros that that obviously played this every

452
00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:26,119
Speaker 2: year for fifteen twenty twenty five years. What do you

453
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 2: think is the biggest pitfall in terms of how you

454
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 2: approach one of these pools.

455
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:36,359
Speaker 3: If you're talking to spread pools like the Pick fives A,

456
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:39,160
Speaker 3: I would assume pros are going to be more cognizant

457
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 3: of things like line movement and grabbing value from where

458
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 3: the contest line opens and things like that.

459
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:49,199
Speaker 1: They're going to now you.

460
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:51,679
Speaker 3: On the other hand, I think if you're a novice,

461
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,280
Speaker 3: you could have the advantage that if pros all think alike.

462
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:56,399
Speaker 3: I mean, you mentioned you got to post a number,

463
00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 3: but it's also a contest against people, and just like

464
00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:02,440
Speaker 3: you play to win people, and what do you win

465
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 3: when your outcome hits well, you do still want to

466
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:08,000
Speaker 3: be somewhat contrarian. I think you don't want to always

467
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,199
Speaker 3: be on the most popular pick that week in the

468
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:14,800
Speaker 3: super contest or the millions, because you just have to

469
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 3: be that much better, Like if everybody's doing well, you

470
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:19,320
Speaker 3: got to be even better, Like you want to be

471
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,119
Speaker 3: you want to win in the years where maybe the

472
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:25,359
Speaker 3: contrarian picks or the popular picture taking a hit a

473
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 3: little bit and maybe hundred fifty percent so that you

474
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 3: shoot up the standings because a lot of people are

475
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 3: on them. And so I do think if you're a novice,

476
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 3: maybe you have an advantage if you're not in that

477
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:38,280
Speaker 3: crowd where everybody might think more alike and be on

478
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 3: the same side.

479
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, because you can get to overthinking and look raise

480
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 2: his hand here, I am very guilty of overthinking sometimes

481
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 2: because you know, you do want to kind of be

482
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 2: Apo Taco of what you think a lot of the

483
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:53,760
Speaker 2: players are going to play. It's like, Okay, I know

484
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,159
Speaker 2: this game is going to be used because it is

485
00:22:56,200 --> 00:23:00,399
Speaker 2: a primetime Sunday night football standalone national g So I

486
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,640
Speaker 2: know this is going to be popular. And if you've

487
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:06,360
Speaker 2: played these long enough, you can kind of tell what

488
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 2: are going to be the most used picks. A wise

489
00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:11,680
Speaker 2: man once told me my old friend Brady Cannon, who

490
00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:13,919
Speaker 2: was part of a San Sushi team who won the

491
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,880
Speaker 2: Westgate Super Contest many years ago. One of the things

492
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 2: he told a you know, one of the first times

493
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:22,000
Speaker 2: I entered say hey, at least beat the consensus. Beat

494
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 2: the consensus every week, and you're gonna have a chance

495
00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:25,840
Speaker 2: to at least win some.

496
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,440
Speaker 1: Money or get in the money, let alone win the thing.

497
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,480
Speaker 2: So so I think that that's kind of a way

498
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:33,439
Speaker 2: to look at it, but maybe you don't want to

499
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,440
Speaker 2: do it, at least from my experience right away, where

500
00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 2: it's like, Okay, I'm going contrarian. You know, nobody likes

501
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,040
Speaker 2: these because sometimes the favorites are going to roll in

502
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 2: week one. We saw the favorites role pretty much week

503
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,719
Speaker 2: one through eighteen last season. So if you were a

504
00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 2: contrarian player, there's gonna be variants year to year, like

505
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,360
Speaker 2: last year, you know, the chalk players, the chalk did

506
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 2: very well and some years the dogs do very well.

507
00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 2: So I never think I I The way I'm approaching

508
00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 2: it is like, hey, just try to pick as many

509
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,400
Speaker 2: winners as you can the first several weeks, and then

510
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 2: I can get into kind of like okay, I'm gonna

511
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 2: zig when they're zagging here.

512
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we're talking this pick five. That's a different

513
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 3: dynamic than some other pools. Right there may be pools

514
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 3: spread pools people are in or game winners. You gotta

515
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:21,000
Speaker 3: pick every game and so we're talking like, be aware

516
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 3: of what the consensus is. That doesn't mean you necessarily

517
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 3: have to go directly against it. You may just also

518
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 3: stay off of it, right or take a less pick

519
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 3: game because you're like, I kind of like the side

520
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:32,880
Speaker 3: that I think more than half will beyond, but I'm

521
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 3: just gonna kind of stay off of it just in

522
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 3: case because I think there's another one that's similar for

523
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 3: me that isn't gonna be as popular.

524
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:40,159
Speaker 1: That's another way to play it.

525
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,120
Speaker 3: You don't have to go full country in and that's

526
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 3: something that comes up in these pick fives. So, yeah,

527
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:47,160
Speaker 3: you want to think about how am I picking relative

528
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:50,359
Speaker 3: to the crowd. Where can I kind of be opposite

529
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 3: but also not just opposite any of these pick fives,

530
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 3: but just avoid that game and be on a less

531
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:57,200
Speaker 3: popular side.

532
00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 2: So you brought up the fact that there are pools

533
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,200
Speaker 2: out there where you got to go ats every single

534
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:03,159
Speaker 2: game down the board.

535
00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:05,560
Speaker 1: You can't be selective and say I.

536
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 2: Want to throw that one out, you know, because there's

537
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 2: an there's an injury or a weather dynamic whatever where

538
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:12,399
Speaker 2: you got to pick every game.

539
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:16,160
Speaker 1: So what is the strategy adjustments.

540
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 2: That you would recommend the listeners make if they're in

541
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 2: the bigger rather than the pick fives.

542
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 1: That we see out here in Vegas.

543
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, and it also depends on how sharp

544
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 3: that pull is, right, because you can be with your buddies,

545
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 3: you could be the size matters in those I would

546
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 3: you know what you're talking about. I'm probably taking line

547
00:25:33,600 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 3: value in most early on until I see how the

548
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 3: standings start to shape up. I mean, I'm just auto

549
00:25:39,119 --> 00:25:41,440
Speaker 3: picking because even if like more than half the people

550
00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 3: are also taking that line value, some aren't. And so

551
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 3: I'm going to assume that I'm getting some edge over

552
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,359
Speaker 3: portions of the crowd in that contest. And there's just

553
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 3: gonna be huge swings. And if you got to pick

554
00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 3: six all sixteen games, I mean ten games that you

555
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:58,399
Speaker 3: didn't even care about, may swing your way or not.

556
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 3: Three and seven, two and eight, So you just got

557
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:02,160
Speaker 3: to be ready for that. I mean, we get people

558
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 3: up and down. You're gonna have ups and downs. Don't

559
00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:07,360
Speaker 3: give up. Keep putting picks in. That's the other thing.

560
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,400
Speaker 3: I mean, you got two hundred and seventy two games ago.

561
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 3: Do not give up after a slow start. We've seen

562
00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 3: some big comebacks and what people report to us people

563
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,840
Speaker 3: come in as part of our product, we ask you

564
00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:22,119
Speaker 3: to tell us your lines you're using, where you are

565
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:24,159
Speaker 3: in the standing, so we record that stuff so we

566
00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,879
Speaker 3: can tell we've seen some big comebacks after four weeks

567
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 3: in pools. Usually you gotta be you got to be

568
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:34,160
Speaker 3: near the top by say the three quarter pole week

569
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 3: thirteen fourteen, you need to be close, but you can

570
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:40,400
Speaker 3: be well back in week four and you can make

571
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 3: a rip and comeback because if, like you said, if

572
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 3: the public picks start faltering, you can shoot up quickly.

573
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 2: And I think they've been very smart in these big

574
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 2: pick five contests where it's like, okay, how do we

575
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 2: keep people engaged because it's like, well, I had a

576
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 2: bad first three or four a week, so I you know,

577
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:58,919
Speaker 2: and then it's like zero and zero every week and

578
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,840
Speaker 2: you give up. And now you've got these quarter prizes,

579
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 2: you know, whether it's four week or five week contests,

580
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 2: where you can have a lousy season, but you can

581
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 2: have a good four or five weeks. So I think

582
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,119
Speaker 2: it's a good way at least to uh to go

583
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 2: ahead and keep those folks engaged over time. But what

584
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 2: you were saying too about the difference with pick five

585
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:20,960
Speaker 2: and like the full slate, shall we say in pick

586
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 2: and pools, is it is much harder because there's more

587
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,360
Speaker 2: entries now where you can just pick off the stale numbers,

588
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 2: especially in a pick five, Like I think, I think

589
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 2: that's much harder now, uh, because Okay, the line comes

590
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 2: out on Wednesday and it's two and a half of

591
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 2: three and a half.

592
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 1: So now of.

593
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:39,159
Speaker 2: Course I'm gonna I'm getting massive line value on a

594
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:40,800
Speaker 2: key number. I'm gonna lay the two and a half.

595
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 2: But like everybody kind of knows that now. So that's

596
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 2: what I wonder because you know, when the when these

597
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,040
Speaker 2: contests were smaller in terms of the entries, It's just

598
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 2: like what you brought up with the World Series of

599
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,800
Speaker 2: Poker when there's you know, only a several hundred players

600
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 2: in the main event back in the day. Yeah, you know,

601
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:00,400
Speaker 2: more pros we're gonna win. Now you get people from

602
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 2: all over the world that play in on a satellite,

603
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:05,120
Speaker 2: online or something, so you got more entry.

604
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:06,919
Speaker 1: So I think that's so hard.

605
00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 2: You know, that doesn't mean you never play like the

606
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 2: like the stale number, but it's so.

607
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 1: Hard to win with just stale numbers like it was

608
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:14,160
Speaker 1: back in the day.

609
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, and so yeah, all those we also

610
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 3: cover confidence pools. I don't know if you're aware of those,

611
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 3: but that's that's and we see that in Spread and

612
00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:26,159
Speaker 3: Gamer you got to rank them well that there's a

613
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:28,879
Speaker 3: different strategy there, and again that comes down to your

614
00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 3: goals contests type.

615
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:32,880
Speaker 1: But in the confidence pool.

616
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 3: Where you've got a rank picks you you want to

617
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:37,879
Speaker 3: figure out where your leverage is. Like if it is

618
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 3: a season long, you probably want to take the biggest

619
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:42,960
Speaker 3: favorites for your sixteen point play, but in a weekly contest,

620
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 3: you may want to take the dog or the unpopular

621
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 3: pick that if that hits you just max your points

622
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 3: and everybody else lost their points. You win opposite everybody.

623
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 3: So anyway, there's a lot of stratege to that. We

624
00:28:56,720 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 3: take that into account with our products. But all that

625
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 3: stuff comes into play in pick and pools, and how

626
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 3: you think about it is, who are you trying to

627
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 3: be How long do you got how many games you

628
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 3: gotta pick right? Pick five ninety And that's the difference

629
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 3: between that and a full season two seventy two. You

630
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 3: don't have as much time to come back, Like you said,

631
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:18,479
Speaker 3: you can be out of it after the quarter in

632
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 3: two seventy two, you're not out of it in a ninety.

633
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 3: You may be after thirty picks, And so you got

634
00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 3: to think about all those things. How much risk do

635
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 3: I need to take and when do I need to

636
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 3: take that risk based on how much time I have left,

637
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 3: how many picks I have left, and how I can differentiate.

638
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 2: And we've seen these pick and pools, by the way,

639
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 2: explode in popularity really over the last ten years. As

640
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 2: more media is there's more of a crossover between media

641
00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 2: and sports betting, where now you know that line of demarcation,

642
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 2: you know, and being cutesy with it, you know, closer

643
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 2: in the experts think as coach Corso would like to say,

644
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 2: but now I think it's like, okay, now you're seeing

645
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 2: more media involved and I know our action where colleague

646
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 2: Chad Millman was kind of the pied piper with this

647
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 2: writing about it at his time with the ESPN and

648
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 2: writing about these contest pools in the popularity has certainly grown.

649
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:12,920
Speaker 1: But other than the popularity, what have you.

650
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:16,600
Speaker 2: Noticed personally in terms of changes and how these participants

651
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 2: now make selections in these super contest style or circum

652
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 2: million type pick fives.

653
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 3: I mean there's a massive First of all, say there's

654
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 3: a massive difference what we see across the contest our users.

655
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 1: So if you're listening to home.

656
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 3: And you're playing with buddies, or you're playing in a

657
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 3: non circum million so let's say, or a super contest,

658
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 3: people are putting a lot of time into those picks,

659
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,920
Speaker 3: you're going to see more tendency for favorites to be picked.

660
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:49,480
Speaker 3: The small the less public your pool is, sure, well,

661
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 3: people tend to play favorites at a much higher rate.

662
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 3: I think that's still the case in millions super contests,

663
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 3: but I think it's gone down in some of these

664
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 3: spread pools. I think I think more than handy caper

665
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 3: contest people are gonna play dogs, the handicappers are gonna

666
00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:05,680
Speaker 3: play dogs. If you're with your buddies, or you're with

667
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,760
Speaker 3: a random pool, on a on a even a sportsbook

668
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 3: website that's running a contest, you're gonna find that most

669
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 3: of the behavior is geared toward the favorites.

670
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 1: And when they're on.

671
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 3: A dog, it's because the dog has a gaudy record,

672
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 3: but somebody's made them a dog because of an injury

673
00:31:25,040 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 3: news and they're not on that and so the dog's popular.

674
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 3: So those are things that I see not in the millions.

675
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:34,440
Speaker 3: Is favorites are heavy, and when dogs are popular, that's

676
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 3: probably a sign you'd want to be off that dog

677
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 3: because something happened to move that team and versus why

678
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 3: the public thinks they're they should be favorite.

679
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:47,560
Speaker 2: And based on your data, how much has it changed too?

680
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 1: If now you have games every night of the week.

681
00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 2: It used to just be Sunday and Monday night football,

682
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 2: but now there's gonna be times. You have Friday games,

683
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 2: Saturday games, Thursday night football of course every single week.

684
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 2: We know the Thursday night game is less frequently used

685
00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 2: because you have to get your You can't piecemeal your picks. Really,

686
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 2: you can't just put Okay, I want to play the

687
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 2: Thursday night game, but I'm gonna save my other four,

688
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 2: you know for later in the weekend. You've got to

689
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 2: put them in all at once. So what have you

690
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 2: seen in the data? Have a lot of your subscribers,

691
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 2: I'm curious, those that play with you as a pool genius,

692
00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:25,640
Speaker 2: how many use those like weeknight games as opposed to

693
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 2: the weekend games. Do you find it's more or less

694
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 2: than I guess the average that we see week to week.

695
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 3: I think it depends on your rules, right, Like you

696
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 3: said in the millions, in those contests, they require you

697
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 3: to lock in all five, which gives you a distinct disadvantage. Right,

698
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 3: absolutely on. You miss out on any news that happens

699
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 3: from you.

700
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 1: You have no idea what the you know the final

701
00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 1: injury reports.

702
00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:52,400
Speaker 3: You have the practice right a practice reports yet, right right,

703
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 3: But there are pools.

704
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:56,440
Speaker 1: That do allow.

705
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 3: You to update each of the five and toil kickoff

706
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 3: or like like I play in one, I can put

707
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 3: the Thursday in, but all picks have to be final

708
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 3: by noon on Sunday or one pm Eastern on Sunday,

709
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 3: when the first kickoffs happen. So in those you know,

710
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 3: I think you still see people underplay the Thursday game.

711
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 3: I think that's a spot, and I think you see

712
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 3: people underplay the Monday game for those reasons. But I

713
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 3: do think it's more common with those rules. Like most

714
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 3: pools I think that are played online only will allow

715
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:34,600
Speaker 3: more of those deadline switches than the big contests that

716
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:35,800
Speaker 3: require one cutoff.

717
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 1: Yeah.

718
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 2: Look, it's always tricky because you don't want to miss it.

719
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 2: Because those Friday practice reports are like the bible for

720
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 2: NFL batters.

721
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 1: I mean, it really is where.

722
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 2: You got to see who's limited, who's full practice, or

723
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 2: who didn't go. So that's that's a lot of what

724
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 2: you have to look at, and it makes such a difference.

725
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 2: And it's not just your stars, it's not just your

726
00:33:57,680 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 2: skill position guys.

727
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 1: It's okay, do they have a cluster.

728
00:34:00,800 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 2: Of injuries on the offensive line or or or in

729
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 2: the secondary, because those are the injuries that you don't

730
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:08,319
Speaker 2: always see, I think in the points spread, if you're

731
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 2: looking at any type of odds or line screen, you.

732
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 1: Don't always see that.

733
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,000
Speaker 2: Now everybody they're gonna know what the move is if

734
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:17,359
Speaker 2: you know Mahomes is out for Kansas City, and what's

735
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:20,239
Speaker 2: the downgrade to the to the number two guy? But

736
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:24,560
Speaker 2: the ratings not everybody rates every like position player. So

737
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:27,239
Speaker 2: so those are so many things that I certainly is

738
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 2: a better put in more importance on because it's going

739
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 2: to be kind of accounted for in the number when

740
00:34:33,040 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 2: it's a big skill position guy.

741
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, is there is there?

742
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:38,359
Speaker 3: How much of a lock would the Thursday pick after

743
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 3: be Would it have to be one hundred percent for

744
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 3: you to consider putting the other four in? If I

745
00:34:42,120 --> 00:34:45,800
Speaker 3: said Wes Thursday. That's a winner. You got one hundred

746
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:48,760
Speaker 3: percent winner. How much does that worth to you versus

747
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 3: making five picks?

748
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, because yeah, you Yeah, It's it's hard week to

749
00:34:55,160 --> 00:34:57,319
Speaker 4: week because look, there are some weeks where you do

750
00:34:57,400 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 4: have that advantage, you know, especially if you've got a

751
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:02,279
Speaker 4: team that I was in a highly physical game, not

752
00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:03,560
Speaker 4: that any NFL game.

753
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,680
Speaker 1: Is not, but you know what I'm saying.

754
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 2: And then they now got to go play Thursday, and

755
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 2: they got to go on the road, especially or it's

756
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 2: a division game.

757
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 1: So there are different weeks.

758
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 2: I think on an average season, I might play the

759
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:19,759
Speaker 2: Thursday night game maybe three or four times. Now there's

760
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,400
Speaker 2: some that never play it, but I personally play it

761
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 2: about three or four times because a lot of it

762
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,319
Speaker 2: has to do with injuries and because you just played

763
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:30,800
Speaker 2: on Sunday, so you don't have a lot of practice

764
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 2: time between Thursday. You know, they're probably not you know,

765
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 2: putting the put in the pads. They're probably shells, elmets

766
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 2: and cleats right and doing walkthroughs as they go through

767
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 2: the season. So I typically average about three or four

768
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 2: times on the Thursday night game because there's no better

769
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,799
Speaker 2: feeling too Now now, it works the opposite way as well,

770
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:49,800
Speaker 2: but there's no better feeling.

771
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,320
Speaker 1: And I want to know, man, you know I split

772
00:35:52,360 --> 00:35:52,840
Speaker 1: the Sunday.

773
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 2: I've at least got a three and two week, which

774
00:35:54,600 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 2: has never anything to sneeze at. But in these pick

775
00:35:57,200 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 2: five pools pools, you can three and two week every

776
00:36:00,280 --> 00:36:02,839
Speaker 2: and you'll take it in your pocket, but not necessarily

777
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 2: in your contests.

778
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 3: Absolutely, And I'm the same way with Survivors, by the way,

779
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 3: I think people avoid those. I know we've done talking

780
00:36:09,000 --> 00:36:11,440
Speaker 3: about Survivor already, but I do think there could be

781
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 3: some edge in Survivor pools by jumping on that Thursday

782
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 3: pick if you think you have a good play. I'm

783
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 3: not afraid to do that in Survivor. I know it's

784
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 3: different than locking in five picks in a pickup context.

785
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:23,799
Speaker 1: Do you think you're you personally?

786
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 2: Are you going to be doing that for I don't

787
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:29,279
Speaker 2: want you to give away your strategy here necessarily, but

788
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:31,960
Speaker 2: are you want to do that like in week number

789
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 2: one where it's like, okay, if I bust out, you know,

790
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:37,439
Speaker 2: in that week number one game, by the way, this week,

791
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:40,360
Speaker 2: just for reference, Cowboys Eagles, and then you have Chiefs

792
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 2: Chargers on Friday if I bust out early, are you

793
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:45,359
Speaker 2: willing to kind of do that and then buy back

794
00:36:45,400 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 2: in with these things?

795
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:48,680
Speaker 3: Well, I'm not going to be back in Vegas, so

796
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 3: I'm not buying back in, and I'm not picking and

797
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:53,840
Speaker 3: I'm not picking the Eagles because they're too valuable. I

798
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 3: think they're too valuable even if you told me they

799
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 3: were eighty percent to win awesome, Yeah, in week one

800
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 3: of this content of that specific contest. So I wouldn't

801
00:37:02,680 --> 00:37:05,560
Speaker 3: do it because I you win with them, and then

802
00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:09,480
Speaker 3: you've got your entry through and now you are at

803
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 3: a disadvantage to everybody else that has played and gotten

804
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 3: through Week one. Slight disadvantage for the rest of the year,

805
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 3: I think, so anyway there, but maybe later in the year. Yeah,

806
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 3: if the Thursday game is appealing, you know, because you

807
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 3: have to lock it in. But you know the thing

808
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 3: about circus, you also have to lock your picks in

809
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:30,240
Speaker 3: on Saturday, so you're not getting Sunday morning line movement anyway.

810
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:33,720
Speaker 3: You're you're committing on Saturday in that contest. So anyway,

811
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,440
Speaker 3: I think that's that's what I would consider.

812
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 2: Thank you all for listening, by the way, and for

813
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:40,680
Speaker 2: those of you that I've already been listening. Of course,

814
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 2: we do want to remind you any listeners looking for

815
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 2: an advantage this season, you want to access that free

816
00:37:46,280 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 2: trial of Pool Genius for NFL Week one, which I

817
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:50,799
Speaker 2: plan on doing after this podcast, and you can head

818
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 2: there poolgenius dot com slash Action. We can get up

819
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 2: to fifty percent off of a subscription and again that

820
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 2: is Poolgenius dot com slash Action, and or you can

821
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 2: just follow the link in the episode's description when this

822
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 2: drops on the site at actionnetwork dot com. So, Jason Man,

823
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 2: this has been a very informative discussion and you've given me,

824
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:13,320
Speaker 2: and I've been playing these contests for years, You've given

825
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 2: me a lot to think about, because that's the thing

826
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 2: I think, even if you're an old veteran at this

827
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 2: or whether you're a novice or a rookie, you never

828
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:21,320
Speaker 2: stop learning.

829
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:23,320
Speaker 1: Jason, thank you very much for joining me today.

830
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 3: Absolutely thanks for having me on Wes.

831
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 2: Coming up by the way, on the Action Network podcast.

832
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:30,840
Speaker 2: All the NFL Week one content. We are ten days

833
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:34,640
Speaker 2: away as we record for the NFL season to start

834
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 2: on that Thursday night, September fourth, So all the Week

835
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,399
Speaker 2: one content you're gonna have an episode as well, One

836
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 2: Future's Bet for every team that's all going to be

837
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:46,799
Speaker 2: up there on the upcoming Action Network podcast. So thank

838
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 2: y'all for joining us this afternoon, and thank you to

839
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 2: Jason Lisk and the folks at Pool Genius. Go ahead

840
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 2: and check them out at Poolgenius dot com slash Action.

841
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:56,320
Speaker 1: I'm Wes Reynolds.

842
00:38:56,520 --> 00:39:07,320
Speaker 2: We'll see you next time on the Action Network podcast.

843
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

844
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

845
00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler