1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:03,720 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:04,559 --> 00:00:05,880 Speaker 2: Let's go home. 3 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:20,800 Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast. This is your UFC 4 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 3: two seventy two betting preview. Brendan Glasheen with Action Network 5 00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 3: senior writer Sean Zarillo, former professional MMA fighter and MMA 6 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,760 Speaker 3: analyst Billy Ward. Back this week for UFC two seventy two. 7 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:38,559 Speaker 3: It's at T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. We had 8 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:40,800 Speaker 3: some news come in early in the week that was 9 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 3: going to affect this coming weekend, and now that we've 10 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:48,320 Speaker 3: sorted all that out, odds have of course available wherever 11 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 3: you may please, getting set for which should be another 12 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 3: a great weekend in the fighting world. Let's start with this, 13 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 3: of course, the main event. Colby Covington is the favorite 14 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:05,199 Speaker 3: again Jorge Masvidal. Sean your thoughts on the main event 15 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 3: this weekend. 16 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:08,560 Speaker 4: This fight is going to be one or lost up 17 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 4: against the cage. I think it plays out very similarly 18 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 4: if Covington wins to the first fight between Usman and Masvidal. 19 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:17,160 Speaker 4: Usman secured five takedowns in that fight. I believe he 20 00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 4: shot sixteen times, had sixteen minutes of control time. Largely 21 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:24,520 Speaker 4: that was up against the cage. Masvidal the strike You're 22 00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 4: here to Covington being the wrestler. Covington good volume, good pace, pressure, durability. 23 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 4: I mean, hope pour it on you for five rounds. 24 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 4: So even if these two just turn out to end 25 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 4: up in a kickboxing match because they want to punch 26 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 4: it out, I do think Korge has a chance on 27 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:42,360 Speaker 4: power optics, but Kolby should have more volume over the 28 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:45,240 Speaker 4: course of twenty five minutes. And he's obviously going to 29 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,240 Speaker 4: have the grappling upside here as well, which is what 30 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 4: makes him a minus three fifty favorite. Never would lay 31 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 4: that type of price on him because he's not a finisher, 32 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 4: So I'm gonna look to the prop market. His minus 33 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 4: won ten minus one of five up to minus one 34 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 4: twenty decision line is interesting. I would make that closer 35 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 4: to minus one thirty, but you can find a fight 36 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 4: to go to the distance prop at minus one twenty 37 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:07,720 Speaker 4: two at FanDuel and just looking at the math. I 38 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 4: don't want to get too crazy in terms of nerding 39 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 4: out over the math here, but this is the type 40 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 4: of stuff that if you're going to bet sports, you 41 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:15,520 Speaker 4: need to look for in terms of betting theory. What 42 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 4: is the book telling you forget my projections? What is 43 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:19,680 Speaker 4: the book telling you minus one twenty two to go 44 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 4: to a decision? Okay, Colby minus one oh five by decision, 45 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 4: that's about fifty two percent. Masu dol plus twelve hundred 46 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 4: by decision, it's about seven to seven and a half percent. 47 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 4: So they're telling you this fight should go to a 48 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 4: decision about sixty percent of the time, should be about 49 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 4: minus one fifty. That's not even accounting for the viig 50 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:38,079 Speaker 4: So this line should probably be closer to about minus 51 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 4: one seventy five. Jorge probably has more finishing upside inside 52 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 4: the distance, bigger puncher, but Colby, as I said, is 53 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 4: very durable. Maybe Colby gets them out of their late 54 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 4: just rinses and repeats, but the takedowns puts the pressure 55 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:52,080 Speaker 4: on them. Wud he pop the ribelad against them? That 56 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:54,799 Speaker 4: fight was probably going to a decision. I think both 57 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,640 Speaker 4: of their finishing upside may be a little bit overrated here, 58 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 4: So the fight go to decision minus twenty two at 59 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:02,960 Speaker 4: FanDuel looks like a terrific bet to me. I think 60 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 4: Korgey denies the early takedowns, keeps Colby off of him early, 61 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:09,200 Speaker 4: and then Colby eventually starts to get them in the 62 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:11,639 Speaker 4: later rounds and pours on the pressure. So I think 63 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 4: Billy and I have pretty similar views on how this 64 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:16,239 Speaker 4: fight plays out. But I'm curious to see how he's 65 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 4: playing it and how he'd used these guys for DFS. 66 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:23,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, Billy, I'm fascinated by the mas Vidol takedown defense 67 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:27,400 Speaker 3: angle and how you might want to approach this main event. 68 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:30,240 Speaker 3: How would you approach it, maybe a little differently than 69 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 3: Sean would. 70 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 5: I'm pretty locks up with Sean. I think it's pretty 71 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 5: likely to go to a decision, both that being five 72 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 5: rounds and the output on these guys. That means it's 73 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 5: pretty viable even for GPPs, that both these guys end 74 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 5: up in the optimal lineup or his only sixty eight hundred. 75 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 5: So depending on how the rest of the card plays out, 76 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 5: he can score enough points to justify sixty eight hundred. 77 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 5: And you know, Kolbe's output is just insane, his striking, 78 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 5: his takedowns. So basically, anytime he's not fighting Kamorrow this 79 00:03:56,080 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 5: menu want him in your lineups. It's pretty much that 80 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:02,160 Speaker 5: simple with him. I'm seeing some takedown defense from Jorge, 81 00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 5: which is about right. I think Colby is able to 82 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 5: get him down eventually. I don't know if it's so 83 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 5: easy right off the bat so the only betting angle 84 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 5: I have on that, if Jorge defends a couple in 85 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 5: the early rounds and looks good and that line moves 86 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:17,039 Speaker 5: a little bit, I'd consider betting Covington live if it 87 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:18,719 Speaker 5: gets closer to even money on him. 88 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,479 Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree with that Covington live angle, especially after 89 00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 4: the first round. Mosidal took a scorecard against Suceman in 90 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 4: both of those fights, so that line is probably going 91 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:29,400 Speaker 4: to tighten after the first round if Covington can't get 92 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 4: him down right away. Minus two fifty on Covington minus 93 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:34,560 Speaker 4: two hundred. Those would be good prices to target after 94 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:37,080 Speaker 4: the first round, maybe after the second round, though, I 95 00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 4: would I would expect you probably get the first best 96 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 4: price after round one. 97 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:43,719 Speaker 2: Sean, is this follow up question, Well, go ahead, Billy. 98 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 5: I was just gonna say with you know, Covington's cardio 99 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:48,920 Speaker 5: is a lot easier to trust than Mosfiedal. We've seen 100 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 5: Covington win rounds that fights that go five rounds. Jorges 101 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 5: only wins in five round fights ended in the second 102 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 5: and third round. We've never seen him in the fourth 103 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 5: and fifth so ideally we've got Jorge leading after two 104 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:00,919 Speaker 5: or three and we can get even closer to even. 105 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:03,320 Speaker 5: But Sewan's probably right and that the safest would be 106 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:05,120 Speaker 5: to go Colby after round one. 107 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:09,360 Speaker 3: Sean is a follow up question to live betting MMA. 108 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 3: We didn't get into this much last week, and we're 109 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 3: here every Friday, by the way, for the UFC Betting 110 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:17,679 Speaker 3: Previews on the Action Network podcast. What is the biggest 111 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:21,280 Speaker 3: piece of advice when you want to live bet a fight, 112 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 3: because I don't think we discussed that much last week. 113 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, cardio is the biggest weapon in MMA. 114 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 4: The more fights you watch, the more you realize that 115 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 4: having a skilled advantage doesn't matter if you're gasping for 116 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:36,719 Speaker 4: air and backing up. So generally speaking, fighters who have 117 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 4: higher finishing upside tend to go a little bit crazy 118 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 4: earlier in fights. They tend to gas out later in fights, 119 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 4: and when they're matching up against the fighter who has 120 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,039 Speaker 4: proven cardio and can sustain for fifteen minutes in this case, 121 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 4: twenty five minutes, you look to bet against them after 122 00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 4: round one, once their wing condition has largely passed and 123 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 4: that fighter is out of the most danger. So it's 124 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:00,320 Speaker 4: really just about betting on Cardio, finding cardio advantages and 125 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 4: looking to weaponize that, maybe even just waiting for a 126 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 4: better price. Once a fighter is out of the round 127 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:09,040 Speaker 4: where their opponent is going to be the most dangerous. 128 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:11,679 Speaker 1: Let's move on to our favorite underdog bets. 129 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:13,400 Speaker 3: Of course, you want to find some angles, as we 130 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 3: discussed in the main event, you want to find some 131 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 3: angles to best capitalize on what the book is offering. Sean, 132 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 3: what stands out to you as a favorite underdog bet? 133 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:25,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, one underdog I'm betting not going to be my favorite, 134 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 4: just because he's only a slight underdog and it's about 135 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 4: to pick him. His Nego Nega Marianu like his inside 136 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 4: the distance odds at plus. 137 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:32,599 Speaker 2: Three hundred as well. 138 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:36,039 Speaker 4: But my favorite underdog and that plus one seventy plus 139 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 4: three hundred range, that would be Tim Elliott. And I 140 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:40,840 Speaker 4: really like this guy's a money line play. 141 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 2: I like his. 142 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 4: Decision prop at plus four fifty to Girila and Bekov 143 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 4: just hasn't really impressed me so far in the UFC. 144 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:48,840 Speaker 4: He doesn't really do much. He can take you down, 145 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:50,840 Speaker 4: but he lays on top. He almost lost a fight 146 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 4: with Top Control last time out, just because the guy 147 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 4: on bottom was being so active from guard and kept 148 00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 4: hitting him over and over. Luen Beckov just largely laid 149 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:04,080 Speaker 4: on top. Tim Elliott probably the better striker. Really awkward movement, 150 00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:06,720 Speaker 4: creates awkward angles, good volume. 151 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 2: He'll kick your leg over and over. 152 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 4: So I expect Elliott to probably win minutes on the feet, 153 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 4: and I'm not necessarily sure that Ulan Bekov is the 154 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 4: better grappler. If this fight hits the mat, I think 155 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:17,040 Speaker 4: Elliott might be able to reverse him. I think Elliott 156 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 4: might even be able to take him down by one. 157 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:21,160 Speaker 4: Concern with Elliott is going to be his cardio in 158 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 4: the third round of this fight. He is getting up 159 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 4: there in age. He's a bit old for a flyway, 160 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:26,800 Speaker 4: but this guy has fought the best of the best 161 00:07:26,840 --> 00:07:31,120 Speaker 4: in the world. At one twenty five excellent strength of schedule. 162 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 4: I think he's probably a pretty solid underdog bet at 163 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:37,360 Speaker 4: anything over plus one seventy five, But you can get 164 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 4: plus two hundred in the marketplace. So Tim Elliott Elliott 165 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 4: by decision or my favorite underdog plays for this weekend. 166 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 2: He's two o five. 167 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 3: As you mentioned on FanDuel, Tim Elliott. You can also 168 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:51,280 Speaker 3: find in a plus two hundred on DraftKings and bet 169 00:07:51,480 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 3: MGM Billy, how about yourself your favorite underdog bet for 170 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 3: the weekend. 171 00:07:55,920 --> 00:08:00,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm going with mikel Ola against Dustin Jacobe. I 172 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:01,640 Speaker 5: think he's one seventy now. He was one to eighty 173 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 5: when I first looked at this one, which means we're 174 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 5: on the right side of it. But Jacoby is the 175 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 5: more decorated striker. He's got kickboxing and boxing experience. But 176 00:08:09,600 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 5: Ola Syshock just has a lot more power. So when 177 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 5: we got two guys who are mostly going to stand 178 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:15,920 Speaker 5: in trade, the guy with the power, he only has 179 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:17,840 Speaker 5: to win for about two seconds to fight. He lands 180 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 5: that shot, he wins, it's over. Jacoby has to win 181 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 5: the whole fight. He has to continue to win because 182 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 5: if he gets his lights put out, it doesn't matter 183 00:08:24,880 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 5: how good he looked before that. And then additionally, both 184 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 5: of Ola Sesshok's UFC losses are by submission, and Jacoby 185 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 5: doesn't really have a lot of interest in making it 186 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 5: a grappling match, so I'm not so. 187 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:33,959 Speaker 6: Worried about that. 188 00:08:34,400 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 5: I think, you know, if there is any grappling, Ola 189 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 5: say Shock probably has a slight advantage. I don't know 190 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 5: that we see that for those of us betting on him, 191 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:43,800 Speaker 5: I'm hoping we get some grappling there, and then obviously 192 00:08:43,800 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 5: that also makes Ola Schesshok a great DFS play. I 193 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 5: think he's seventy six hundred, so if he can get 194 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 5: a knockout for that, we're gonna want to have exposure 195 00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:51,240 Speaker 5: to him there too. 196 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, I bet he's inside the distance odds at plus 197 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:55,320 Speaker 4: three hundred. I think that's a solid prop too. It 198 00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 4: just probably ties up most of his win condition. He's 199 00:08:58,160 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 4: four now, I believe our decisions for his career. But 200 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:02,240 Speaker 4: if he is landing, I think he's a good chance 201 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 4: of putting Jacoby Downder. He's very good at finding the 202 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:05,120 Speaker 4: chant in the pocket. 203 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm really hoping we get a little bit of 204 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:09,600 Speaker 5: grappling out of him, just to make him still around 205 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 5: or two there. You know, he could get he could 206 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 5: get touched a lot more. But then if he gets 207 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 5: a takedown at the end, A lot of times the 208 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 5: judges look favorably on that. 209 00:09:15,600 --> 00:09:17,200 Speaker 6: So I'm hoping it's not just stand up, but I'm 210 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 6: with you if it is. 211 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 3: Oll and shake off, by the way, is like you said, 212 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:25,760 Speaker 3: he's seventy six hundred on DraftKings and he's averaging just 213 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 3: over seventy DK Fantasy points per fight this year. Let's 214 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:32,080 Speaker 3: move on to our fight of the nights. We have 215 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 3: Bryce Mitchell at minus one sixty five. Those are the 216 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:40,720 Speaker 3: lines brought to you by bet MGM taking on Edson Barbosa. 217 00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 3: He is at plus one thirty five. First off, Sean, 218 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 3: why is this a fight? And Billy please you as well? 219 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 3: Why is this a fight that stands out to each 220 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 3: of you that you'd like to highlight this week. It's, 221 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:52,080 Speaker 3: of course not the main event, but it's a fight 222 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:54,959 Speaker 3: that each of you are particularly passionate about. 223 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 6: Yeah. 224 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:58,840 Speaker 4: I think the styling, mare stylistic nature of it is 225 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 4: so polarizing. Mitchell a very strong grappler, tons of top pressure. 226 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:07,080 Speaker 4: We haven't really seen Barbosa face a non kickboxer in 227 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 4: a while. Barbosa by far the better kickboxer, one of 228 00:10:09,640 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 4: the best in the sport, very dangerous and I think 229 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,719 Speaker 4: he can even catch Mitchell coming in. Mitchell goes to 230 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 4: shoot for a single leg, Barbosa lifts theknee, could catch 231 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 4: him under the chin. Barbosa has multiple ways of winning 232 00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:22,680 Speaker 4: this fight, Mitchell, I believe, unless he gets a quick submission, 233 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 4: it's probably going to be a pretty ugly, sloppy decision 234 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 4: win unless he's just hanging onto Barbosa for three rounds. 235 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 4: So I'm curious to see if Barbosa can get up early. 236 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 4: If he can get up early, can he keep getting 237 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 4: up if Mitchell comes back and takes him down? Because 238 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 4: that guy just clings on you. He seems very annoying 239 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:41,719 Speaker 4: to fight against. Has the undefeated record, do you think 240 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:43,839 Speaker 4: that's over inflating him a little bit. Hasn't fought in 241 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 4: a while, but doesn't necessarily train with the top camp, 242 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 4: so I don't really know what kinds of improvements that 243 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:51,839 Speaker 4: he's making. But it's a tough stylistic matchup for Barbosa 244 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 4: always going to be interested in plus money. I think 245 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 4: there's value on him at plus money, but again I 246 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 4: prefer inside the distance size at plus three hundred. Believe 247 00:10:59,920 --> 00:11:02,840 Speaker 4: that line is available at DraftKings. If he's winning enough 248 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:05,040 Speaker 4: minutes on the feet to win this fight in space, 249 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:07,280 Speaker 4: I expect that he's eventually going to find a way 250 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 4: to knock Mitchell out. So plus three hundred on both 251 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 4: both state inside the distance money line probably fair value two. 252 00:11:13,800 --> 00:11:15,840 Speaker 4: But I believe that maybe a live bed after round 253 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:18,160 Speaker 4: one if Mitchell can't take him down, if it's obvious 254 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:19,760 Speaker 4: that Barbosa is going to be able to get up 255 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 4: over and over and Mitchell's top pressure isn't really working. 256 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:25,440 Speaker 4: But listen, if Mitchell goes into there and submits him 257 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 4: right away, I don't think I'm necessarily going to be 258 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 4: shocked either. This kid's grappling is pretty special. We just 259 00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:32,880 Speaker 4: haven't really seen him get put in trouble on the feet, 260 00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:34,160 Speaker 4: and I think this is the fight where it's going 261 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:34,559 Speaker 4: to happen. 262 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 1: Bill, you have similar thoughts on Barbosa. 263 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:41,199 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm riding with him, as is usually the case 264 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:42,960 Speaker 5: with Sean, and I am taking the safer route and 265 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 5: just betting his money line. I could see him, you know, 266 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 5: outpointing him and Mitchell being tough enough to survive. The 267 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 5: big thing I'm looking to see, though, is whether Barboso 268 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 5: can get back to the feet once it does hit 269 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:54,560 Speaker 5: the ground. His takedown defense is solid at seventy eight 270 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,720 Speaker 5: percent through his UFC career, but he's probably going to 271 00:11:57,720 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 5: get taken down at least once or twice in this fight. 272 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 5: If he can get back up, That's what I'm looking 273 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:03,679 Speaker 5: for in terms of the live betting and stuff like that. 274 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 5: But yeah, you know, it's a huge step up in 275 00:12:05,920 --> 00:12:08,440 Speaker 5: competition for Mitchell. He's never really fought someone that seasoned 276 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:11,080 Speaker 5: as Barbosa, and I like the veteran, I like the 277 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 5: guy who we've seen do it at a high level before. 278 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 6: So I'm going with Barbosa. 279 00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 4: He should also be bigger. He's going to have a 280 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 4: foreign to reach advantage. I mean, he used to fight 281 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 4: at lightweight, so he is the bigger guy. It's just 282 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:24,199 Speaker 4: a matter of whether Mitchell's pressure is going to be 283 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:25,640 Speaker 4: too much for him. I mean, the guy just sort 284 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:27,679 Speaker 4: of he's like a leech. He just grips on you 285 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:29,960 Speaker 4: and he doesn't let go until you're on the ground. 286 00:12:29,960 --> 00:12:31,959 Speaker 4: But if Barbosa can shuck him off, especially in the 287 00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:35,959 Speaker 4: bigger cage, the bigger cage certainly plays the Edson's advantage here. 288 00:12:36,760 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, Barbosa, as the guy's mentioned plus money two and 289 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 3: two and four efforts as a featherweight this year. But yeah, 290 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 3: I mean, I think his hands, based on what I've 291 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 3: read up on and caught up on from watching his hands, 292 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 3: are are really doing well for him as of late. 293 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:58,239 Speaker 3: As he heads into this fight at twenty two and ten. Overall, 294 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:02,880 Speaker 3: you cannot have this episode or this podcast without discussing 295 00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:05,040 Speaker 3: prop bets, because that is a fun way to get 296 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:07,520 Speaker 3: involved that you don't feel strongly about one side or 297 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 3: the other in these particular fights on the main card, 298 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:13,560 Speaker 3: it's always a nice idea to go to a prop bet, Billy, 299 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:15,199 Speaker 3: we'll go to you first here on the prop bets. 300 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:17,280 Speaker 2: Who do you like in the prop market? 301 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:20,480 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm betting Sergey Spivic to win by submission. I 302 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:23,600 Speaker 5: think it's right around plus three hundred. He's fighting Greg Cardy, 303 00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:25,240 Speaker 5: and you know, we'd all love to see Greg Hardy 304 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:27,360 Speaker 5: get knocked out again, but I don't think that's really 305 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 5: how Spivik's going to play this one. The fight is 306 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 5: minus two twenty five to end before a decision, so 307 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 5: most of that is obviously going to be on the 308 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 5: Spivik side because. 309 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 6: He's a pretty big favorite. But he has zero standing 310 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:40,439 Speaker 6: knockdowns in his UFC career. 311 00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:44,200 Speaker 5: His only KO win was on the ground against Jared Vandera. 312 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 5: I don't think Hardy has the capabilities to put him 313 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 5: away standing. He hasn't looked good striking, has been knocked 314 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:51,480 Speaker 5: out a couple times lately, so I think Eventually, Spivik's 315 00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 5: just experience and his skill advantage will allow him to 316 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:55,880 Speaker 5: get it to the ground and he'll find a submission. 317 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:57,760 Speaker 6: Hardy doesn't seem to have very good cardio. 318 00:13:57,800 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 5: I'd expect it to come late if you want to 319 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 5: get real crazy at round two, round three. But I'm 320 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,200 Speaker 5: happy with the plus three hundred. I'm getting just a 321 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 5: win by submission at any point. 322 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:07,199 Speaker 6: How about you? 323 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:09,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of like that. 324 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,320 Speaker 4: My only concern is just that spive gets on top 325 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:15,640 Speaker 4: of them and starts ground and pounding them until Hardy just, 326 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:16,960 Speaker 4: you know, sort of turtles up. 327 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 2: It doesn't fight back, and it gets stopped. 328 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 4: So so I generally lean to the inside the distance props, 329 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 4: that submission line, that knockout line, or the same price 330 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:27,480 Speaker 4: like you said, probably higher upside because his win condition 331 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 4: is going to come on the ground for the submission prop. 332 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 4: I bet that fight to inside the distance or under 333 00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 4: two and a half rounds minus one seventy five at DraftKings. 334 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 4: I think those are the approaches I would take. Just 335 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 4: because Spitback's a bad striker, I could see Hardy putting 336 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 4: him down early. My favorite prop is going to be 337 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 4: Kevin Holland by submission at plus eight fifty. This line 338 00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 4: should be closer to plus five hundred. In my opinion, 339 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:49,120 Speaker 4: I have about a quarter of a unit point two 340 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:52,680 Speaker 4: units on that bet. Nothing crazy, But what you do 341 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 4: with bets like this, and how I tend to play 342 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 4: props like this every weekend, You mix them up in 343 00:14:57,320 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 4: little round robins. So I mentioned old State Chuck inside 344 00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 4: the distance, Barbosa inside the distance, tim Elliott by decision, 345 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:05,680 Speaker 4: you throw Holland by submission. 346 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 2: In there. 347 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:08,400 Speaker 4: You've got a two plus three hundred's a plus four 348 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 4: to fifteen, A plus eight to fifty makes him up 349 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:12,160 Speaker 4: on a little round robin. You could get a very 350 00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:14,920 Speaker 4: nice payout from those for pretty small stakes. So it's 351 00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:16,680 Speaker 4: a fun way to play it. But to me, Alex 352 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 4: Olivera has about seven minutes of gas in him, and 353 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:21,800 Speaker 4: when that starts to run out, he looks to give 354 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 4: up his neck and find a way out of there. 355 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 4: It doesn't typically get knocked out, but he seems to 356 00:15:25,760 --> 00:15:27,760 Speaker 4: give up his neck and find a way to get submitted. 357 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 4: So I think Hollin snatches up a guillotine at some 358 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 4: point here and puts him away in the second round 359 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 4: plus eight fifty by submission I think is a pretty 360 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 4: solid bet considering Holland's VJ today, but more considering how 361 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 4: al Oliver looks for a way out once he starts 362 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:41,680 Speaker 4: at tire. 363 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, and he struggled olivera late least two and six 364 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:50,760 Speaker 3: over his last eight fights and the two victories, we're 365 00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,640 Speaker 3: not all that encouraging as far as how he looks 366 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:57,960 Speaker 3: coming into the weekend. So definitely Holland is someone who 367 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 3: is trending up. But definitely, again, folks a way to 368 00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 3: get involved with the fights. You might see the heavy 369 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 3: favorite and thinks stay away, but prop bets available to 370 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:12,120 Speaker 3: find unique ways to get in on the on the 371 00:16:12,120 --> 00:16:14,600 Speaker 3: particular fighter you might be passionate about, let's just. 372 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 4: Fight it welterweight For holl And, I should mention too, 373 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 4: moving down from one eighty five. He never really pushed 374 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 4: the middleweight limit. It seemed like he never cut weight, 375 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 4: So definitely an interesting angle to watch. He could be 376 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 4: absolutely massive at the welterweight division. 377 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:31,280 Speaker 3: Okay, there you go, another nugget that helps make the case. Billy, 378 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 3: your time to shine here, Pelle. We're moving on to 379 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 3: DFS strategy, and I'm curious. 380 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 1: As to how you look at the board look at the. 381 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 3: Salaries and how you start. How do you start a 382 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 3: line up this week in DFS. 383 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 5: Yeah, obviously the most important thing we have going this 384 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 5: week is there's two different five round fights. So we've 385 00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 5: got the late addition of not Almoicano against RDA. 386 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 6: So both those. 387 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:57,440 Speaker 5: Guys are exceedingly cheap. We've got seventy two hundred and 388 00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:00,120 Speaker 5: seventy three hundred, I believe is their salary, so we're 389 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 5: adding up to fourteen thy five hundred instead of the 390 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:04,800 Speaker 5: usual sixteen to two for cash games. You're just gonna 391 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:07,119 Speaker 5: plug both those guys in. You could also plug in 392 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:10,240 Speaker 5: both Colby and Jorge. I'm comfortable just going Colby on 393 00:17:10,280 --> 00:17:12,159 Speaker 5: that one because we don't really need to save the salary. 394 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:14,719 Speaker 5: But it gets interesting for GPPs because I looked at 395 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 5: the last four events that we had multiple five round fights. 396 00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 5: One of those both fighters in one of the fights 397 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:22,679 Speaker 5: and then the winner of the other both made the 398 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:25,199 Speaker 5: optimal lineup. So three of your four or three of 399 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 5: your six lineup numbers came from those two fights. I 400 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 5: think that's really in play with the comain event here. 401 00:17:31,960 --> 00:17:34,439 Speaker 5: You know, if it's pretty likely to go five rounds, 402 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:35,719 Speaker 5: that means we can get a lot of action out 403 00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:36,720 Speaker 5: of those guys, and they're. 404 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 6: Just so cheap that that makes it easy. 405 00:17:38,880 --> 00:17:41,080 Speaker 5: Sean, do you have an opinion on who you're more 406 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 5: interested in from a DFS standpoint in the comain. 407 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's gonna be dos An host for me. I'll 408 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:49,439 Speaker 4: get into it in a minute. But this guy has 409 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,400 Speaker 4: been competing in five round fights largely since twenty fifteen. 410 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 2: It's been to the fourth round eight times over that span. 411 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 4: First five round fight for Mokanos, So I think, just 412 00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 4: in terms of the stylistic nature of their experience has 413 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:04,040 Speaker 4: played out RDA's strength the schedule at that price point, 414 00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 4: it's it's all RDA for me certainly. 415 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:10,480 Speaker 1: And then yeah, they found out they were going head 416 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:11,280 Speaker 1: to head Tuesday. 417 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:12,960 Speaker 3: That was some of the news from earlier in the 418 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 3: week that they agreed Wicato and Adjos that they would 419 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 3: agree to a five round fight. 420 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:20,479 Speaker 5: Billy, Yeah, just to expand on that a little bit, 421 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 5: when DraftKings released their salary Monday or Sunday or Monday, 422 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:25,919 Speaker 5: usually that salary is locked in. So when we get 423 00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 5: an opponent shift like that, Desaanos went from a fairly 424 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 5: heavy underdog to now he's a favorite so we're basically paying, 425 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 5: you know, long shot odds to get a somewhat heavy 426 00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:36,880 Speaker 5: favorite in that, so he's going to be super popular. 427 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 5: I think the way to get contrarian or unick with 428 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,400 Speaker 5: that is to pair him with his opponent, not. 429 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:42,480 Speaker 6: To avoid them altogether. 430 00:18:43,720 --> 00:18:44,159 Speaker 2: I like that. 431 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:44,920 Speaker 6: I like that. 432 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,879 Speaker 3: That's huge because, like you said, I mean, that's that 433 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,879 Speaker 3: analysis folks, that it's just going to jump out to 434 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 3: people right like, how do you avoid how do you 435 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 3: avoid the chalk? 436 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:55,560 Speaker 1: I don't think many. 437 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:56,200 Speaker 2: People would think like. 438 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:59,399 Speaker 3: That to just go ahead and roster the guy he's facing. 439 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,320 Speaker 3: And just as a reminder as well, you'll find it 440 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:06,280 Speaker 3: in the DraftKings contest that Rafael Fhazive is out. He 441 00:19:07,080 --> 00:19:09,639 Speaker 3: we found out monday COVID nineteen positive tests. So of 442 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,199 Speaker 3: course do not roster him. That is not that is 443 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,879 Speaker 3: a no no at eighty nine hundred dollars. So yes, 444 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:18,880 Speaker 3: at to Billy's point, the salaries won't update. The fighters 445 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,520 Speaker 3: will also not leave the contest even if they. 446 00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:23,960 Speaker 1: Are ruled out. 447 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 3: Any other angles you'd like to share, Billy, in terms 448 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 3: of Daily Fantasy Cash Games or GPPs. 449 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:32,199 Speaker 5: Yeah, from a GPP standpoint, I'm looking real hard at 450 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:34,360 Speaker 5: the Jalen Turner versus Jamian Malarkey fight. 451 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 6: You know, the salaries are pretty. 452 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 5: Close in this one, so I can really see it 453 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:39,960 Speaker 5: going either way. But I've got this one at minus 454 00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,879 Speaker 5: two hundred to be finished inside the distance. So with 455 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:45,639 Speaker 5: those guys at eighty eighty two hundred, if either of 456 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:47,800 Speaker 5: them gets to stop it, you almost certainly have to 457 00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:51,479 Speaker 5: have them in your lineup to win anything big, you know, 458 00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:53,720 Speaker 5: I think Turner is the better striker where We've seen 459 00:19:53,800 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 5: Malarkey rack up a lot of takedowns in some of 460 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 5: his fights, but he's a good striker too. He's got 461 00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 5: a couple knockouts on his record, So I don't have 462 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 5: a strong take on who's going to win that fight, 463 00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:04,480 Speaker 5: but I'm pretty confident that the winner is going to 464 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:07,680 Speaker 5: be in the best lineups come close a contest Saturday night, 465 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 5: and yeah, that's. 466 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 4: An absolutely ridiculous fight, final prelim. I believe that should 467 00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 4: it should just be really fun. Turners very aggressive in 468 00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 4: round one. Malarkey's durability is probably going to be what 469 00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 4: swings the result. If he's able to weather that storm early, 470 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,160 Speaker 4: I think he takes over in rounds two and three, 471 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:27,760 Speaker 4: maybe a live betting opportunity, but I think he can 472 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:29,800 Speaker 4: actually rack up about ten minutes the volume and then 473 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:31,919 Speaker 4: get turnaround of there late or I think Turner is 474 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:34,320 Speaker 4: going to get around one finish, So I actually the 475 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:35,920 Speaker 4: over one and a half rounds in that fight, I 476 00:20:35,960 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 4: expect it to be pretty competitive. Malarkisers survived, maybe get 477 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 4: it to the later stages, but I could see a 478 00:20:41,040 --> 00:20:42,680 Speaker 4: late round two finish as well for. 479 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 2: Either of them. 480 00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:45,239 Speaker 4: But yeah, I think either or In pretty much all 481 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 4: by DFS lineups, I think finish is probably coming in 482 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 4: the second or third round. 483 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,920 Speaker 3: So Billy, it feels fair to say better to take 484 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:57,680 Speaker 3: a more balanced approach from a salary standpoint, like any 485 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,560 Speaker 3: interest in Nermago Medoff's. 486 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:01,080 Speaker 1: It minus eight hundred. 487 00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 3: Of course, in his fight head to head with kell 488 00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:07,480 Speaker 3: Hers plus five fifty, but uh uh Nerromco Medoff is 489 00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:08,800 Speaker 3: at ninety six hundred dollars. 490 00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 6: He's the most expensive, so. 491 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:12,280 Speaker 1: Maybe that's this is a week where you could fade. 492 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:15,400 Speaker 3: The most expensive guy and get some value with those 493 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:16,360 Speaker 3: in between salaries. 494 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,200 Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, for gpp Is in particular, I think 495 00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:22,040 Speaker 5: he's gonna be extremely popular just because we are getting 496 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,439 Speaker 5: so much savings in the main event. But uh I'm 497 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 5: probably gonna mix in one of either him or Holland 498 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 5: or Uhluin Beckoff and a lot of my lineups just 499 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:30,879 Speaker 5: because those guys have such long odds. You know, Sean's 500 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:32,919 Speaker 5: talking me off Ulin Beckoff a little bit with his 501 00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 5: Tim Elliott pick earlier. But you've got room to play, 502 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:38,159 Speaker 5: you know, two of those expensive guys, one guy in 503 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:39,680 Speaker 5: the middle and then with all the savings at the 504 00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:40,359 Speaker 5: Koman event. 505 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:41,400 Speaker 6: But Colan back. 506 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:44,360 Speaker 2: Off just doesn't do anything. He just lays there. He's 507 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,160 Speaker 2: just he's he's. 508 00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,000 Speaker 4: A lay and prey guy. Like it's not the type 509 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:49,719 Speaker 4: of guy you want to use in DFS lineup. He's 510 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:51,719 Speaker 4: not going to finish you, and he's really not going 511 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:53,800 Speaker 4: to rack up a ton of control time either He's 512 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 4: either going to lay on top or get pushed off. 513 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:57,800 Speaker 5: So I mean that can be okay as long as 514 00:21:57,800 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 5: Elliott gets back to his feet. So that's what you 515 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,320 Speaker 5: got to look at. If if a think keeps getting 516 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,120 Speaker 5: back to his feet and he lands seven to eight takedowns, 517 00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:05,000 Speaker 5: those points at up quick, I don't think that's the 518 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,119 Speaker 5: most likeliest case. I think you're right in that the 519 00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:09,359 Speaker 5: likely scenarios that he kind of gets stuck. There not 520 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:11,280 Speaker 5: a lot happens, and that's a lot of salary to 521 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:15,080 Speaker 5: pay off if you're not getting a ton of takedowns. 522 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,639 Speaker 3: All right, before we wrap things up, we have to 523 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:21,880 Speaker 3: get to our best bets for UFC two seventy two. 524 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:27,159 Speaker 4: Sean you first, Yeah, we just mentioned the fight, but 525 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:30,840 Speaker 4: I'm gonna take Hafe eldest An Hoo's minus one seventy five. 526 00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 4: I have this line projected closer in minus two fifty. 527 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:35,960 Speaker 4: If this was a three round fight, I think I'd 528 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,000 Speaker 4: be considering Moyicano witht this price, but over the course 529 00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:42,480 Speaker 4: of five rounds, I want RDA all day. This guy's 530 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,560 Speaker 4: has maybe the best strength of schedule in UFC history. 531 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:46,960 Speaker 2: Looked at the names he's fought. 532 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,399 Speaker 4: He's fought anybody who matters at one fifty five former 533 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:54,119 Speaker 4: walterweight and Mikano a former fedweight, So I think thoseos 534 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:55,680 Speaker 4: could be the bigger man in the cage. That's said, 535 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:57,640 Speaker 4: let's put a pause on this. I think Moi Kano 536 00:22:57,720 --> 00:22:59,680 Speaker 4: actually has some early success here, and you might even 537 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:03,400 Speaker 4: be able a live bet RDA after round one round two. Waikano, 538 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:05,920 Speaker 4: the faster hands, actually has a bit of a link 539 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:09,320 Speaker 4: advantage and the grappling should sort of neutralize each other 540 00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 4: out when both of these guys are fully rested. But 541 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:14,159 Speaker 4: after about ten minutes, I think Mokano is going to 542 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:18,440 Speaker 4: start to dip. Guy basically flew twenty four hours consecutively. 543 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,840 Speaker 4: He got to Brazil, got to notice that he was 544 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:22,560 Speaker 4: going to fight, got right back on a plane, and 545 00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:25,119 Speaker 4: came back to the States. He's been flying NonStop, has 546 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 4: to cut weight for the second time in two weeks. 547 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,040 Speaker 4: Desano's better volume over the course of five rounds, and 548 00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:31,840 Speaker 4: I think he will start to be able to grapple 549 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,480 Speaker 4: Rda or he should be able to grapplem wa Icano 550 00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,119 Speaker 4: in the late stages as well. So Rda to me 551 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,400 Speaker 4: minus one seventy five, I think that's a pretty good 552 00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,520 Speaker 4: price for a five round fight against the guy who 553 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,480 Speaker 4: is more than proven over the course of twenty five minutes, 554 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:45,920 Speaker 4: and somebody doing it for the first time. 555 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:50,000 Speaker 3: It's hard to avoid those airplane cookies and snacks they 556 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,399 Speaker 3: hand out too, so hopefully for his sake, he did that. 557 00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 1: How about you, Billy your best bet? 558 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,200 Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm going with Ludovit Klein at plus one forty 559 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,920 Speaker 5: He was fighting at featherweight before this fight in the UFC. 560 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,359 Speaker 5: I think this line would probably be closer to a 561 00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:05,600 Speaker 5: pick them. But people are baking in that he's coming 562 00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:08,160 Speaker 5: up a weight class to fight Devonte Smith. But if 563 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:09,720 Speaker 5: you look at his record, his only win in the 564 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,080 Speaker 5: UFC was a one hundred and fifty pound catchwaight, he 565 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:14,920 Speaker 5: fought it lightweight primarily before he got to the UFC. 566 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:17,879 Speaker 5: I don't see that being much of an issue, so 567 00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 5: I'm okay with him on that side. 568 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,160 Speaker 6: But you know, he's lost both of his last two fights. 569 00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,359 Speaker 5: Smith has lost two of his last three, but his 570 00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:27,640 Speaker 5: only win was against Justin James, who lost like five 571 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:29,520 Speaker 5: fights in a row and was cut. So that wasn't, 572 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:32,080 Speaker 5: you know, a super impressive win. I think this should 573 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 5: be about a pick them, but we're getting plus one 574 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,080 Speaker 5: forty at Cline, so I'm going to take the value 575 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 5: on that one coast sign. 576 00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:41,440 Speaker 2: Love it, Love it all right. 577 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,119 Speaker 3: I think that's it fellas great stuff as always, and 578 00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:48,880 Speaker 3: looking forward to an excellent weekend in Las Vegas. Excellent 579 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:52,359 Speaker 3: Saturday should be good, all right. Well, be sure to 580 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:56,120 Speaker 3: join us folks every Friday. This was your UFC two 581 00:24:56,280 --> 00:25:00,680 Speaker 3: seventy two betting preview for Sean Zarillo and Billy Ward 582 00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 3: find their great workover on the Action Network Brending Glassen again, 583 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:08,000 Speaker 3: be sure to check us out every Friday for UFC 584 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 3: betting previews. Thanks for tuning in to the Action Network podcast. 585 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:13,400 Speaker 2: We will catch you next time.