WEBVTT - Kamala Edition: Taxes, Tariffs, and the DNC 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:27.484 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:27.524 --> 0:00:30.284 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 0:00:30.044 --> 0:00:31.244 And I'm Nate Silver. 0:00:31.844 --> 0:00:33.964 So today on the show, we're going to be talking 0:00:34.004 --> 0:00:38.804 about the DNC and what's happening with Kamala Harrison, talk 0:00:38.804 --> 0:00:41.604 a little bit about economics and some of the economic 0:00:41.684 --> 0:00:44.684 questions of the campaign. But Nate, we are taping this. 0:00:44.844 --> 0:00:49.004 You are currently this is Monday, August nineteenth. You're in Chicago. 0:00:49.364 --> 0:00:52.564 I'm in Chicago kind of not for the DNC. 0:00:52.804 --> 0:00:55.684 I'm here for a book tour event, which is yes, indirectly, 0:00:55.764 --> 0:00:57.404 but yeah, I'm getting out of here in twenty four 0:00:57.404 --> 0:00:58.324 hours basically. 0:00:58.844 --> 0:01:02.924 But when you were arriving to Chicago, Welcome to the 0:01:02.924 --> 0:01:07.084 world of podcasting. You were stopped by the TSA and 0:01:07.124 --> 0:01:09.884 they asked you about all of the audio equipment that 0:01:09.924 --> 0:01:12.364 you were carrying with you and what you were planning 0:01:12.404 --> 0:01:15.004 to do with it. And Nate is so embarrassing. What 0:01:15.084 --> 0:01:16.164 did you have to tell them? 0:01:16.204 --> 0:01:17.804 I had this is in LaGuardia, by the way, on 0:01:17.844 --> 0:01:21.444 the on the way out, I had to admit to 0:01:21.484 --> 0:01:22.244 being a podcaster. 0:01:22.324 --> 0:01:23.404 And it's a busy time of day. 0:01:23.444 --> 0:01:25.964 There are all these people around and now I'm openly 0:01:26.004 --> 0:01:27.204 admitting to being a podcaster. 0:01:27.284 --> 0:01:28.284 The scarlet pee. 0:01:28.444 --> 0:01:30.244 What happened? Did they detain you immediately? 0:01:30.284 --> 0:01:33.164 And they were like, oh, no podcaster and a podcaster here, 0:01:33.244 --> 0:01:36.444 all right, okay, mister being shot right on through, mister 0:01:36.524 --> 0:01:38.204 podcast that's not quit. 0:01:38.284 --> 0:01:38.684 What happened. 0:01:38.684 --> 0:01:39.004 It was. 0:01:40.844 --> 0:01:43.884 A very friendly yeah woman, not like a guy. 0:01:43.924 --> 0:01:46.884 But yeah, if you're a podcaster, always budget an extra 0:01:46.924 --> 0:01:48.244 fifteen minutes to get through security. 0:01:48.244 --> 0:01:50.564 I'm just telling you then, see, this is very good 0:01:50.644 --> 0:01:53.404 risk communication strategy. We've already talked about when you have 0:01:53.484 --> 0:01:56.164 to arrive at the airport, but if you're a podcaster, 0:01:56.484 --> 0:02:00.724 please add fifteen minutes. This is our public service announcement 0:02:00.724 --> 0:02:05.964 for today. So let's move on to slightly more serious things, 0:02:05.964 --> 0:02:09.084 even though podcasting is serious business and traveling while podcasting 0:02:09.084 --> 0:02:12.244 as here, Yes, let's talk about Kamala Harris. Do you 0:02:12.284 --> 0:02:15.484 want to give us just a quick update on what 0:02:15.524 --> 0:02:18.684 your models have been saying, because they, you know, in 0:02:18.724 --> 0:02:21.684 the past few times that we've spoken the past few weeks, 0:02:22.244 --> 0:02:25.884 every single time there has been positive momentum, and the 0:02:25.964 --> 0:02:30.404 last few model updates have been actually going slightly in 0:02:30.444 --> 0:02:33.164 the other direction, if I recall correctly, do you want 0:02:33.164 --> 0:02:34.484 to talk us through this a little bit. 0:02:34.884 --> 0:02:37.964 Yeah, so this is Monday. There are some polls from 0:02:38.524 --> 0:02:41.444 late Sunday night we haven't entered yet, but Harris was 0:02:41.484 --> 0:02:47.124 a fifty four forty six favorite. Look, it's a poker show, 0:02:47.164 --> 0:02:50.764 so I think our listeners can handle fifty four to 0:02:50.764 --> 0:02:53.204 forty six. You'd rather have the fifty four than the 0:02:53.284 --> 0:02:55.324 forty six. But it's basically a toss up Emrie, as 0:02:55.324 --> 0:02:58.644 you mentioned, she's lost a little bit of the momentum 0:02:58.684 --> 0:03:03.764 that she had kind of a week ago, in particular Pennsylvania, 0:03:04.244 --> 0:03:05.964 a state where you know, I would have urged her 0:03:06.004 --> 0:03:06.924 to pick Joshapiro. 0:03:07.044 --> 0:03:09.484 You've seen Poles showing a tie there. 0:03:09.524 --> 0:03:12.844 On the other hand, these other new pathways, like she's 0:03:12.884 --> 0:03:18.964 actually you know, a slight favorite in our forecast in Arizona, 0:03:19.324 --> 0:03:22.004 for example, which not a huge shock. I mean, Democrats 0:03:22.004 --> 0:03:25.724 won Arizona in twenty twenty, but that's a state where 0:03:25.924 --> 0:03:29.204 Biden had been way behind. And you know, Nevadas a 0:03:29.244 --> 0:03:32.644 toss up Georgia, and perhaps. 0:03:32.324 --> 0:03:35.924 More surprisably pronounce that state might Nevada. We no, I 0:03:36.564 --> 0:03:39.004 use good job Nevada. It's like I get psyched out, 0:03:39.044 --> 0:03:39.924 you know, like I used to. 0:03:39.844 --> 0:03:43.404 Have an employee work with named Meghan, right, but like 0:03:43.444 --> 0:03:46.004 I always know is Megan or Megan and then and 0:03:46.164 --> 0:03:49.844 by the way, I think like people's pronunciation, like Sarah 0:03:50.124 --> 0:03:53.804 sr a h and Sarah sa ra are different names. 0:03:53.524 --> 0:03:56.964 By the way, I think people shouldn't Anyway, She's. 0:03:56.804 --> 0:04:00.604 Also actually quite close in Georgia and perhaps more surprisingly, 0:04:01.244 --> 0:04:03.244 North Carolina. I mean, some of this is the fact 0:04:03.284 --> 0:04:08.404 that she's doing better with voters of color, with younger 0:04:08.484 --> 0:04:11.004 voters groups that mister Biden. Why am I saying, mister Biden, 0:04:11.044 --> 0:04:13.764 I'm saying, mister Bidens just filed a New York Times story. 0:04:13.804 --> 0:04:14.444 This is the first. 0:04:16.324 --> 0:04:21.204 Yeah, yeah, she's doing better than Biden among like young 0:04:21.444 --> 0:04:24.004 voters of color, and those are plentiful in North Carolina 0:04:24.404 --> 0:04:26.804 and Georgia, young black voters, young Asian voters at TETRA. 0:04:27.884 --> 0:04:30.804 So she, you know, maybe is less dependent on Pennsylvania 0:04:30.844 --> 0:04:35.524 than Biden was. But yeah, look, I think people can 0:04:35.524 --> 0:04:38.164 make the mistake of when the chart is going up, 0:04:38.844 --> 0:04:40.844 they assume it's going to keep going up, when in 0:04:40.884 --> 0:04:43.644 fact it's something I would call a random walk more 0:04:43.724 --> 0:04:47.604 or less. Right, you know, clearly it seems like there 0:04:47.684 --> 0:04:51.804 was some something that wasn't priced into Harris as pulling 0:04:51.884 --> 0:04:53.644 at first, people getting used to the idea of her 0:04:53.684 --> 0:04:56.324 being the nominee, and she kind of reverted from being 0:04:56.404 --> 0:04:59.764 three points behind to three points ahead two and a 0:04:59.764 --> 0:05:01.164 half points ahead, which in some ways is a typical 0:05:01.244 --> 0:05:03.564 number for Democrats. I mean, Hillary Clinton won the popular 0:05:03.644 --> 0:05:06.884 vote by by two points, lost the Electoral College. 0:05:06.924 --> 0:05:09.604 Of course, Joe Biden won it by four and a 0:05:09.604 --> 0:05:10.044 half points. 0:05:10.084 --> 0:05:11.884 So if she's in the two and a half to 0:05:11.964 --> 0:05:15.964 three point range, and that's pretty normal for a Democrat. However, 0:05:17.324 --> 0:05:20.804 our model is expecting that she will continue to rise 0:05:20.844 --> 0:05:23.684 in the polls after the DNC. That's what we call 0:05:23.724 --> 0:05:29.844 a convention bumper convention bounce. Typically this lasts for you know, 0:05:30.204 --> 0:05:32.404 the day after the convention, you've had four days of 0:05:32.444 --> 0:05:36.764 free television advertising on every network. You tend to see 0:05:36.764 --> 0:05:39.044 your polls rise. It's like buying a lot of free airtime. 0:05:40.524 --> 0:05:42.564 Then that fades over about three weeks. So we would 0:05:42.604 --> 0:05:45.524 expect her to get to maybe four or five point 0:05:45.604 --> 0:05:49.124 lead in national polls and be ahead in the large 0:05:49.124 --> 0:05:51.044 majority of swing state poles, and then it resets by 0:05:51.044 --> 0:05:53.044 the time we get to the second debate on September 0:05:53.524 --> 0:05:56.404 tenth or her first debate second debate of the campaign 0:05:56.684 --> 0:05:58.684 on September tenth in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. 0:05:58.764 --> 0:06:00.604 So that's kind of the basic lay of the land, 0:06:00.644 --> 0:06:01.044 I think. 0:06:01.484 --> 0:06:03.964 Yeah, so there are a few things in there. One, 0:06:04.044 --> 0:06:07.404 I do think that there is this psychological phenomenon that 0:06:07.404 --> 0:06:11.324 has been documented everywhere. When you know, charts are going 0:06:11.404 --> 0:06:14.484 up or down, people just expect that to continue. So 0:06:14.604 --> 0:06:17.084 this is true like in the stock market, this is 0:06:17.084 --> 0:06:20.164 true like pretty universally right when when things are going up, 0:06:20.204 --> 0:06:22.964 like you just think that it's going to constantly go up. 0:06:23.164 --> 0:06:26.004 And that's why it's so ridiculously difficult to like, you know, 0:06:26.084 --> 0:06:29.284 sell the sell the top right. People usually miss that 0:06:29.964 --> 0:06:33.164 because they just think, you know, or the housing bubble 0:06:33.244 --> 0:06:35.524 right like, it's going to just keep keep getting better, 0:06:35.564 --> 0:06:38.724 It's going to keep going up. This is psychologically just 0:06:39.684 --> 0:06:46.324 very very very prevalent, and human psychology doesn't want to 0:06:46.364 --> 0:06:48.604 think that the body like, oh shit, you know, it 0:06:48.684 --> 0:06:51.484 might start going in the other direction. And so the 0:06:51.524 --> 0:06:53.524 funny thing is, like all of the research that I've 0:06:53.564 --> 0:06:56.324 seen and that I've done has been in just given 0:06:56.364 --> 0:07:00.284 the fact that you know, I did my dissertation on 0:07:00.404 --> 0:07:03.764 risky decision making but looked at stock markets. So that's 0:07:03.844 --> 0:07:07.164 kind of the the box that I've always seen it in. 0:07:07.324 --> 0:07:09.604 But it makes so much sense that with pulling it 0:07:09.644 --> 0:07:12.044 would be it would be something similar where like you 0:07:12.084 --> 0:07:15.484 expect those trajectories to continue, and if they don't, you're like, 0:07:15.524 --> 0:07:18.444 oh my god, you know, oops, what happened? And it's 0:07:18.444 --> 0:07:21.404 obviously much more important to get it right in these 0:07:21.444 --> 0:07:22.964 particular arenas. 0:07:23.244 --> 0:07:24.844 No, And in poker, one thing I always say is 0:07:24.844 --> 0:07:27.444 the chips have no memory of the previous hands, right 0:07:27.684 --> 0:07:29.324 the other place a table might. But if you go 0:07:29.364 --> 0:07:31.724 from twenty five K to fifty k, it's the same 0:07:31.764 --> 0:07:33.604 as going from one hundred k taking bad be going 0:07:33.604 --> 0:07:35.804 to fifty k, and you have to, if anything, you 0:07:35.844 --> 0:07:37.524 might want to resist the urge. I mean, I think 0:07:38.644 --> 0:07:40.644 there's winners tilt when you've been on a winning streak 0:07:40.644 --> 0:07:44.524 and you start making rash decisions, and there's losers tilt 0:07:44.524 --> 0:07:45.804 when you lose a big stack and then blow the 0:07:45.804 --> 0:07:47.964 bush of it off. We talked before about the analogies 0:07:48.004 --> 0:07:53.804 of Trump potentially being on tilt, but yeah, I mean, look, 0:07:53.804 --> 0:07:56.924 it's still a tough campaign. If you want to make 0:07:57.004 --> 0:08:02.164 the slightly contrarian bullish argument for Trump. Right then you'd say, Okay, well, 0:08:02.244 --> 0:08:05.284 number one, maybe she already got her convention bounce. You 0:08:05.324 --> 0:08:07.804 had very positive press coverage and the very exciting story 0:08:08.084 --> 0:08:09.964 which you won the nomination. So maybe that was her 0:08:10.044 --> 0:08:12.764 high water market came a week ago, and then and 0:08:12.764 --> 0:08:15.844 then she'll stall out and it'll be close. But remember 0:08:15.884 --> 0:08:18.644 Republicans have an advantage to the electoral college still on 0:08:18.684 --> 0:08:21.204 our map, although it's narrower. Actually this is important. We 0:08:21.284 --> 0:08:23.284 have an edge is being narrower than in twenty sixteen 0:08:23.284 --> 0:08:25.924 and twenty twenty. If she wins by one and a 0:08:25.964 --> 0:08:28.204 half points in the popular vote, we would have the 0:08:28.204 --> 0:08:30.124 election then as a toss up. So it's less than 0:08:30.164 --> 0:08:33.884 Hillary Clinton won by. We could talk about the reasons 0:08:33.884 --> 0:08:36.404 for that maybe or not. But yeah, and you'd say, look, 0:08:36.444 --> 0:08:39.044 and Trump has been very unfocused, but he's eventually, i mean, 0:08:39.084 --> 0:08:41.964 a presidential election is something that's you want to win, right, 0:08:41.964 --> 0:08:45.724 He'll eventually figure out better messaging about the economy and 0:08:45.724 --> 0:08:48.004 the border. We're going to talk about Harrison the economy 0:08:48.004 --> 0:08:52.444 in a minute. But yeah, there's still a pretty decent 0:08:52.484 --> 0:08:56.524 case for Trump that her momentum has stalled out now 0:08:57.004 --> 0:08:58.884 and that this should be a very strong period for her, 0:08:58.924 --> 0:09:02.324 and she's in the lead, but not by much. And 0:09:02.324 --> 0:09:04.004 they have a lot of ammunition that they still have 0:09:04.084 --> 0:09:05.084 opportunities to fire. 0:09:05.884 --> 0:09:08.204 Yeah, and so one other thing that you said, which 0:09:08.204 --> 0:09:10.164 I think is interesting that we should should talk about 0:09:10.244 --> 0:09:14.324 for a little bit. You had said that that initial momentum, 0:09:14.444 --> 0:09:17.644 it seemed like maybe things weren't priced in right correctly 0:09:17.684 --> 0:09:21.324 at the beginning where people were Kamala Harris was basically 0:09:21.484 --> 0:09:25.644 outperforming expectations because expectations were set too low. And I 0:09:25.684 --> 0:09:29.284 think that there are if you look at the psychology 0:09:29.364 --> 0:09:33.604 literature of women who reach positions of power, right of 0:09:33.644 --> 0:09:36.004 females in leadership, I think there are a lot of 0:09:36.044 --> 0:09:39.444 good reasons why this would be the case, because oftentimes 0:09:39.844 --> 0:09:43.724 the expectations are kind of people don't even realize it, 0:09:43.844 --> 0:09:47.164 but the way that they kind of see someone. And 0:09:47.284 --> 0:09:48.804 all of these studies, by the way, are not on 0:09:48.884 --> 0:09:52.604 presidential candidates because there's you know, there's an end of 0:09:52.764 --> 0:09:58.004 two now, but they're in you know, CEOs, CFOs kind 0:09:58.004 --> 0:10:00.484 of women in those types of leadership roles, and you 0:10:00.724 --> 0:10:05.644 find that over and over there are these expectations that 0:10:05.684 --> 0:10:07.924 they're not quite gonna they're not quite going to hack it, 0:10:08.004 --> 0:10:11.204 and their expectations are lower going in, and they're kind 0:10:11.204 --> 0:10:14.964 of seen differently, and a lot of the same personality 0:10:15.044 --> 0:10:18.364 traits and characteristics that help them get there then start 0:10:18.364 --> 0:10:21.044 being seen in a negative light, and people start predicting 0:10:21.244 --> 0:10:23.764 that they're not going to do as well because they 0:10:23.764 --> 0:10:26.164 don't think that they're Oh they're not as charismatic, or 0:10:26.484 --> 0:10:29.044 you know, you know, she's too cold, or she's to this, 0:10:29.244 --> 0:10:31.484 or she's to that. So people aren't going to like her, 0:10:31.644 --> 0:10:34.484 and they project that onto them, and so the kind 0:10:34.484 --> 0:10:36.524 of the projections end up being incorrect. And I think 0:10:36.564 --> 0:10:39.604 we're probably seeing that some of that had happened with 0:10:39.684 --> 0:10:43.724 Kamala and that people didn't realize, oh wait, you know, 0:10:44.844 --> 0:10:47.164 this might be some bias at play and not actually 0:10:47.244 --> 0:10:48.524 how she's going to be performing. 0:10:49.324 --> 0:10:52.484 There's an old Gerald Ford cliff where some student asks 0:10:52.564 --> 0:10:54.084 him do you think a woman could ever be president? 0:10:55.444 --> 0:10:56.844 And the answers in a way that I'm sure he 0:10:56.884 --> 0:11:00.044 thought at the time was quite progressive. Right, He's like, well, 0:11:00.604 --> 0:11:03.724 you know, I could imagine a woman being vice president 0:11:03.924 --> 0:11:06.604 and then something happens to the president and she takes 0:11:06.604 --> 0:11:10.444 over and she's quite competent, right, So it wasn't quite 0:11:10.484 --> 0:11:12.244 willing to, and then he said, and then maybe that 0:11:12.284 --> 0:11:14.724 would open the door for it, right, But just kind 0:11:14.724 --> 0:11:17.804 of in stages here. I do think that, like, you know, 0:11:18.324 --> 0:11:22.564 maybe partly for gender and race related reasons and the 0:11:22.604 --> 0:11:25.044 fact that you know, Biden had been losing to Trump, 0:11:25.204 --> 0:11:27.324 and that like anything seemed you know, a thirty five 0:11:27.324 --> 0:11:29.844 percent chance, which is what I thought she'd have before 0:11:29.884 --> 0:11:32.804 we before we saw this polling surge is comparably better 0:11:32.844 --> 0:11:38.884 than Biden's odds. So she benefited from low expectations, from 0:11:39.524 --> 0:11:42.844 softer media coverage. And look, she's doing fine. But I 0:11:42.844 --> 0:11:46.924 agree Maria that, like you know, if she's perceived as 0:11:46.964 --> 0:11:50.244 the front runner, it's now her race to lose again. 0:11:51.084 --> 0:11:51.844 That can be tougher. 0:11:52.804 --> 0:11:56.524 Absolutely, it's in some ways the underdog story, especially when 0:11:56.524 --> 0:11:59.924 we're talking about the United States, has so much power. 0:12:00.524 --> 0:12:04.404 People love the underdog, whether it's in sports teams or 0:12:04.884 --> 0:12:07.644 or in political stories or or anything else. And you know, 0:12:07.764 --> 0:12:10.044 you love the You love to hear it, right, you 0:12:10.124 --> 0:12:12.764 love to see it. And if she flips and is 0:12:12.844 --> 0:12:17.604 no longer the underdog for enough time, people's memory is 0:12:17.644 --> 0:12:20.324 also short. Right at this point, we're like, oh yeah, 0:12:20.324 --> 0:12:22.564 they're like Oh yeah, Kamala Harris is a candidate, right, 0:12:22.604 --> 0:12:24.884 you forget that just you know, a month ago we 0:12:24.884 --> 0:12:28.324 were talking about Biden has to step down. People's memories 0:12:28.324 --> 0:12:28.764 are short. 0:12:29.324 --> 0:12:33.404 I mean, look, partly I think the media has not 0:12:33.524 --> 0:12:35.724 covered the Joe Biden age beat. Well, they covered it 0:12:35.764 --> 0:12:38.004 as a beat when it affected the horse race, whether 0:12:38.604 --> 0:12:40.404 Biden or Harris someone else be the candy. 0:12:41.404 --> 0:12:45.244 But it's also a governance story. Yeah. I look. 0:12:45.284 --> 0:12:47.364 I these people on the left who think like the 0:12:47.404 --> 0:12:49.964 media is biased, the mainstream media is biased against the 0:12:50.124 --> 0:12:54.484 Democratic Party are fucking crazy. But leaving that aside for now, 0:12:54.524 --> 0:12:57.724 I do think that, like Harris has this weird thing 0:12:57.884 --> 0:13:02.044 where she's kind of running in some ways against the 0:13:02.084 --> 0:13:04.804 incumbent party a little bit, right, I mean, what's it's like, 0:13:04.804 --> 0:13:08.124 We're going forward, not back, even though she is technically 0:13:08.164 --> 0:13:11.404 the incumbent parties carrenate. In fact, I made a mistake 0:13:11.924 --> 0:13:14.604 the other day. We ran our model and I was tired, 0:13:15.084 --> 0:13:18.644 and I just double checked the numbers before we publish, right, 0:13:19.244 --> 0:13:23.004 and basically I conflated in my head the incumbent and 0:13:23.044 --> 0:13:24.964 the challenger because in our model, the candidates are not 0:13:25.044 --> 0:13:29.324 labeled Harris, Trump or even Democrat Republican and their incumbent challenger, 0:13:30.444 --> 0:13:34.484 and I'm like, why is the incumbent party's numbers going up? 0:13:34.484 --> 0:13:37.044 I thought it's just gonna be good for Harris and 0:13:37.164 --> 0:13:39.564 Trump's numbers are going up or whatever, right when in fact, 0:13:39.964 --> 0:13:42.804 so I somehow thought of Trump, who has the president before, 0:13:43.324 --> 0:13:46.884 as the incumbent, and Harris, who hasn't, as the challenger. 0:13:46.964 --> 0:13:50.364 But of course, you know, she is the vice presidential 0:13:50.404 --> 0:13:52.604 incumbent right now. So it's a little bit it's a 0:13:52.604 --> 0:13:54.084 little bit confusing, I'd say. 0:13:53.884 --> 0:13:55.084 Maria, it is. 0:13:55.364 --> 0:13:59.324 It is confusing, and I'm actually curious, Like from I 0:13:59.364 --> 0:14:01.604 think it's an interesting question when it comes to kind 0:14:01.644 --> 0:14:05.244 of the polling, the statistics, all of that, because it 0:14:05.324 --> 0:14:08.564 is something that people don't really think about when we 0:14:08.604 --> 0:14:12.084 talk about kind of the psychology of the underdog narrative 0:14:12.164 --> 0:14:17.844 incumbent challenger Trump was, you know, President Trump. And it's 0:14:18.444 --> 0:14:22.964 an unprecedented kind of situation where we've switched where you 0:14:23.084 --> 0:14:26.604 had one person running. It's literally unprecedented, right, this has 0:14:26.644 --> 0:14:29.164 never happened in the United States before, where all of 0:14:29.204 --> 0:14:29.804 a sudden. 0:14:29.724 --> 0:14:31.124 At this stage, I mean, so we only have the 0:14:31.164 --> 0:14:36.724 current primary system since nineteen sixty eight or seventy two roughly, 0:14:37.604 --> 0:14:41.204 you know, you did have LBJ get his clock cleaned 0:14:41.284 --> 0:14:43.804 in the New Hampshire primary or underperform expectations is the 0:14:43.844 --> 0:14:46.364 more proper framing of that. And then withdraw and in fact, 0:14:46.404 --> 0:14:50.884 throughout American history, I mean, Wilson Truman, these people, old 0:14:50.964 --> 0:14:54.044 men are stubborn and kind of had to be like 0:14:54.524 --> 0:14:57.404 pushed off stage. And before the party had complete power 0:14:57.444 --> 0:15:00.244 to do that, and now it has very limited powers, 0:15:00.244 --> 0:15:02.284 has to work through persuasion. And then if had things 0:15:02.284 --> 0:15:04.884 had gotten messy at the convention, then we would have seen. 0:15:06.204 --> 0:15:10.604 But yeah, I mean, I think I think she's been 0:15:10.684 --> 0:15:13.004 lucky that, like the Trump campaign hasn't been able to 0:15:13.284 --> 0:15:16.724 tie here to Biden more so far. Maybe they will 0:15:16.724 --> 0:15:19.804 be maybe you say, look, this whole mess is her mess, 0:15:19.804 --> 0:15:22.284 and she's responsible for it. In fact, she's to his 0:15:22.444 --> 0:15:24.684 left and things like that. But they, like I said, 0:15:24.684 --> 0:15:27.404 they seem to be not on their a game right now. 0:15:27.564 --> 0:15:27.884 Trump. 0:15:28.604 --> 0:15:31.764 Yeah, I think that's very true, and I think that 0:15:31.804 --> 0:15:35.444 she is trying to book that narrative a little bit. 0:15:35.724 --> 0:15:38.124 But like I said, in terms of prediction, it is 0:15:38.324 --> 0:15:42.964 very very difficult because she's incumbent but not incumbent, and 0:15:43.004 --> 0:15:45.764 I don't think she wants to be identified as incumbent 0:15:45.884 --> 0:15:49.164 so so far, so you know, in her choice of walls, 0:15:49.844 --> 0:15:52.564 and because if they're really trying to say, like you know, 0:15:52.724 --> 0:15:55.484 we're we're bringing something fresh and new and we're not 0:15:55.564 --> 0:15:58.284 responsible for a lot of the bad stuff and trying 0:15:58.284 --> 0:16:00.524 to shed that and trying to have this nice and 0:16:00.564 --> 0:16:04.844 shiny new image, which has been helpful so far. But 0:16:05.324 --> 0:16:08.204 I wonder if that is if they're going to be 0:16:08.244 --> 0:16:11.444 able to hold it, because is the Trump campaign was 0:16:11.524 --> 0:16:14.324 really unprepared for this. I think that's very clear. And 0:16:14.364 --> 0:16:16.724 we were talking about this before and so they didn't 0:16:16.724 --> 0:16:19.204 have their shit together, and so far as it. 0:16:19.124 --> 0:16:21.684 Comes to we've made this point before, she wanted to 0:16:21.724 --> 0:16:24.404 underscore one more time, like, how can you not prep 0:16:24.444 --> 0:16:27.404 for this if you have like a team, you're an 0:16:27.484 --> 0:16:32.124 NFL team, and the team's starting quarterback is questionable and 0:16:32.204 --> 0:16:35.004 the backups totally different style, he's like a scrambler or 0:16:35.044 --> 0:16:37.164 something like, how do you not fucking prepare a game 0:16:37.164 --> 0:16:41.604 plan for both eventualities? But maybe we should start to 0:16:41.644 --> 0:16:43.724 move on a little bit to policy, and we don't 0:16:43.724 --> 0:16:44.884 do a lot of policy stuff. I do want to 0:16:44.884 --> 0:16:46.404 ask you one more question than Maria. Yeah, on the 0:16:46.444 --> 0:16:49.604 incumbency thing. Just get your intuition or expertise or whatever. 0:16:50.084 --> 0:16:54.604 Suppose that tomorrow Joe Biden has some medical missap. I 0:16:54.604 --> 0:16:58.484 don't want to speculate, Okay, which it is doesn't kill him, 0:16:58.484 --> 0:17:02.084 but he can't be president anymore. And Harris inherits the presidency, 0:17:02.524 --> 0:17:03.924 do you have any sense for that would help her 0:17:04.044 --> 0:17:04.484 or hurt her? 0:17:06.084 --> 0:17:09.964 I think that given her story right now, and given 0:17:10.084 --> 0:17:13.604 what she's going for, if I had to guess, and 0:17:13.644 --> 0:17:16.124 this is pure speculation based on kind of what I 0:17:16.204 --> 0:17:19.004 know of kind of human psychology and what we've been 0:17:19.044 --> 0:17:23.364 talking about with momentum and that sort of thing, I 0:17:23.444 --> 0:17:26.444 think that it might actually hurt her if she had 0:17:26.484 --> 0:17:30.604 to assume the presidency for a few months, because what 0:17:30.884 --> 0:17:34.044 happens if there has to be a very unpopular policy decision, 0:17:34.364 --> 0:17:36.044 like what if something happens in the Middle East and 0:17:36.084 --> 0:17:38.564 she has to make a very unpopular policy choice, and 0:17:38.564 --> 0:17:41.964 it's one hundred percent on her because she's the acting president, 0:17:42.404 --> 0:17:44.284 you know, I think that there's a lot of potential 0:17:44.364 --> 0:17:48.004 downside there, and not a lot of potential upside because 0:17:48.084 --> 0:17:51.164 it's not like she's going to get presidential experience that 0:17:51.244 --> 0:17:54.484 she doesn't have now in two months, So I think 0:17:54.524 --> 0:17:57.764 that people can then have very very specific things to 0:17:57.804 --> 0:18:00.924 pin on her that she won't be able to talk 0:18:01.004 --> 0:18:03.644 around or kind of shrug off. And I think it 0:18:03.644 --> 0:18:06.684 will make it easier for the Trump campaign to get 0:18:06.724 --> 0:18:10.804 their shit together. But who knows. 0:18:11.364 --> 0:18:13.404 All right, So instance, it's kind of the Kamala Show. 0:18:13.764 --> 0:18:17.124 We're gonna also the Kamala Kamala edition. I guess I 0:18:17.164 --> 0:18:18.084 received business Kamala. 0:18:18.124 --> 0:18:19.644 Addition, we're going to. 0:18:19.684 --> 0:18:23.764 Talk more about her economic policies, which walks, like me, 0:18:24.324 --> 0:18:28.524 neoliberal economics walks think are very dubious. Uh, but we'll 0:18:28.524 --> 0:18:30.884 talk about that more after this commercial break. 0:18:42.564 --> 0:18:44.964 One of the things that people have been I think 0:18:45.004 --> 0:18:49.844 the most upset about is rising prices everywhere, especially when 0:18:49.884 --> 0:18:52.324 you go to the store, right and you look at 0:18:52.364 --> 0:18:55.244 your and you look at the bottom line on your check, 0:18:55.244 --> 0:18:57.244 and you're like, holy shit, how did this happen? It 0:18:57.244 --> 0:18:59.884 happens to me too, right when I when I go 0:19:00.004 --> 0:19:02.124 to like Whole Foods, or to Union Market, which is 0:19:02.164 --> 0:19:06.244 my local grocery store here in New York, or Sprouts 0:19:06.244 --> 0:19:08.244 when I'm in Vegas and I look at the bottom 0:19:08.604 --> 0:19:11.484 and I'm like wait, wait, what did I buy? You know, 0:19:11.564 --> 0:19:14.484 and and how how did how did this happen? Like 0:19:15.164 --> 0:19:17.524 how much did things cost? Because I don't usually look 0:19:17.884 --> 0:19:20.044 and then and then I have sticker shock, and I 0:19:20.044 --> 0:19:23.004 think a lot of people are seeing that, and it's 0:19:23.044 --> 0:19:27.204 given rise to one of Kamala Harris's first proposals, you know, 0:19:27.284 --> 0:19:31.404 first actual policy proposals. Nate, do you want to talk 0:19:31.444 --> 0:19:35.724 a little bit about what the Harris campaign has proposed 0:19:35.884 --> 0:19:37.964 when it comes to what they've termed price gouging. 0:19:38.684 --> 0:19:42.284 Yeah, it's actually a little bit vague what they proposed, 0:19:42.284 --> 0:19:43.884 which maybe is a reason to take it a bit 0:19:43.964 --> 0:19:48.404 less seriously. Some states have bans on price gouging, the 0:19:48.404 --> 0:19:52.404 federal government doesn't. They're hard to enforce in any eventuality. 0:19:52.444 --> 0:19:54.284 If it's happening, it's kind of very local level. 0:19:55.484 --> 0:19:55.724 I mean. 0:19:55.724 --> 0:19:59.764 The classic economist response is to say that price gouging 0:20:00.084 --> 0:20:02.324 is they shouldn't be called price gouging. It's an economically 0:20:02.404 --> 0:20:07.084 rational response to limited supply, and that charging higher prices 0:20:07.244 --> 0:20:11.444 encourages suppliers to produce or goods. That if you don't 0:20:11.444 --> 0:20:13.644 have price couching, then all that actually happens is you 0:20:13.684 --> 0:20:18.204 have more queuing people. Wait, in line for longer to 0:20:18.244 --> 0:20:22.124 purchase these items that they want. So yeah, the economist 0:20:22.164 --> 0:20:27.204 braining part of me really thinks this is kind of icky. 0:20:28.324 --> 0:20:31.364 Just to say, the reason that I was talking about 0:20:31.404 --> 0:20:34.484 being in grocery stores is Kamala Harris is talking specifically 0:20:34.524 --> 0:20:37.244 about price gouging when it comes to groceries, so not 0:20:37.244 --> 0:20:38.804 not price grouching more broadly. 0:20:39.084 --> 0:20:40.364 Yeah, I mean, and you hear it, and I mean 0:20:40.404 --> 0:20:43.044 you don't hear about price gouging of like medical services 0:20:43.044 --> 0:20:44.964 as much. Right, it's the things where you literally see 0:20:45.524 --> 0:20:48.964 literal sticker shock right in the grocery store and gas 0:20:48.964 --> 0:20:51.364 prices of the two where it's most often becomes an issue. 0:20:52.164 --> 0:20:56.404 And at the World Series this is not technically price gouging. 0:20:56.444 --> 0:20:59.444 But I have to ask you, Nate, can you so 0:20:59.844 --> 0:21:02.604 I had to buy a banana during the World Series 0:21:02.644 --> 0:21:05.844