1 00:00:15,564 --> 00:00:27,484 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:27,524 --> 00:00:30,284 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 3 00:00:30,044 --> 00:00:31,244 Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. 4 00:00:31,844 --> 00:00:33,964 Speaker 1: So today on the show, we're going to be talking 5 00:00:34,004 --> 00:00:38,804 Speaker 1: about the DNC and what's happening with Kamala Harrison, talk 6 00:00:38,804 --> 00:00:41,604 Speaker 1: a little bit about economics and some of the economic 7 00:00:41,684 --> 00:00:44,684 Speaker 1: questions of the campaign. But Nate, we are taping this. 8 00:00:44,844 --> 00:00:49,004 Speaker 1: You are currently this is Monday, August nineteenth. You're in Chicago. 9 00:00:49,364 --> 00:00:52,564 Speaker 2: I'm in Chicago kind of not for the DNC. 10 00:00:52,804 --> 00:00:55,684 Speaker 3: I'm here for a book tour event, which is yes, indirectly, 11 00:00:55,764 --> 00:00:57,404 Speaker 3: but yeah, I'm getting out of here in twenty four 12 00:00:57,404 --> 00:00:58,324 Speaker 3: hours basically. 13 00:00:58,844 --> 00:01:02,924 Speaker 1: But when you were arriving to Chicago, Welcome to the 14 00:01:02,924 --> 00:01:07,084 Speaker 1: world of podcasting. You were stopped by the TSA and 15 00:01:07,124 --> 00:01:09,884 Speaker 1: they asked you about all of the audio equipment that 16 00:01:09,924 --> 00:01:12,364 Speaker 1: you were carrying with you and what you were planning 17 00:01:12,404 --> 00:01:15,004 Speaker 1: to do with it. And Nate is so embarrassing. What 18 00:01:15,084 --> 00:01:16,164 Speaker 1: did you have to tell them? 19 00:01:16,204 --> 00:01:17,804 Speaker 3: I had this is in LaGuardia, by the way, on 20 00:01:17,844 --> 00:01:21,444 Speaker 3: the on the way out, I had to admit to 21 00:01:21,484 --> 00:01:22,244 Speaker 3: being a podcaster. 22 00:01:22,324 --> 00:01:23,404 Speaker 2: And it's a busy time of day. 23 00:01:23,444 --> 00:01:25,964 Speaker 3: There are all these people around and now I'm openly 24 00:01:26,004 --> 00:01:27,204 Speaker 3: admitting to being a podcaster. 25 00:01:27,284 --> 00:01:28,284 Speaker 2: The scarlet pee. 26 00:01:28,444 --> 00:01:30,244 Speaker 1: What happened? Did they detain you immediately? 27 00:01:30,284 --> 00:01:33,164 Speaker 3: And they were like, oh, no podcaster and a podcaster here, 28 00:01:33,244 --> 00:01:36,444 Speaker 3: all right, okay, mister being shot right on through, mister 29 00:01:36,524 --> 00:01:38,204 Speaker 3: podcast that's not quit. 30 00:01:38,284 --> 00:01:38,684 Speaker 2: What happened. 31 00:01:38,684 --> 00:01:39,004 Speaker 1: It was. 32 00:01:40,844 --> 00:01:43,884 Speaker 2: A very friendly yeah woman, not like a guy. 33 00:01:43,924 --> 00:01:46,884 Speaker 3: But yeah, if you're a podcaster, always budget an extra 34 00:01:46,924 --> 00:01:48,244 Speaker 3: fifteen minutes to get through security. 35 00:01:48,244 --> 00:01:50,564 Speaker 1: I'm just telling you then, see, this is very good 36 00:01:50,644 --> 00:01:53,404 Speaker 1: risk communication strategy. We've already talked about when you have 37 00:01:53,484 --> 00:01:56,164 Speaker 1: to arrive at the airport, but if you're a podcaster, 38 00:01:56,484 --> 00:02:00,724 Speaker 1: please add fifteen minutes. This is our public service announcement 39 00:02:00,724 --> 00:02:05,964 Speaker 1: for today. So let's move on to slightly more serious things, 40 00:02:05,964 --> 00:02:09,084 Speaker 1: even though podcasting is serious business and traveling while podcasting 41 00:02:09,084 --> 00:02:12,244 Speaker 1: as here, Yes, let's talk about Kamala Harris. Do you 42 00:02:12,284 --> 00:02:15,484 Speaker 1: want to give us just a quick update on what 43 00:02:15,524 --> 00:02:18,684 Speaker 1: your models have been saying, because they, you know, in 44 00:02:18,724 --> 00:02:21,684 Speaker 1: the past few times that we've spoken the past few weeks, 45 00:02:22,244 --> 00:02:25,884 Speaker 1: every single time there has been positive momentum, and the 46 00:02:25,964 --> 00:02:30,404 Speaker 1: last few model updates have been actually going slightly in 47 00:02:30,444 --> 00:02:33,164 Speaker 1: the other direction, if I recall correctly, do you want 48 00:02:33,164 --> 00:02:34,484 Speaker 1: to talk us through this a little bit. 49 00:02:34,884 --> 00:02:37,964 Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is Monday. There are some polls from 50 00:02:38,524 --> 00:02:41,444 Speaker 3: late Sunday night we haven't entered yet, but Harris was 51 00:02:41,484 --> 00:02:47,124 Speaker 3: a fifty four forty six favorite. Look, it's a poker show, 52 00:02:47,164 --> 00:02:50,764 Speaker 3: so I think our listeners can handle fifty four to 53 00:02:50,764 --> 00:02:53,204 Speaker 3: forty six. You'd rather have the fifty four than the 54 00:02:53,284 --> 00:02:55,324 Speaker 3: forty six. But it's basically a toss up Emrie, as 55 00:02:55,324 --> 00:02:58,644 Speaker 3: you mentioned, she's lost a little bit of the momentum 56 00:02:58,684 --> 00:03:03,764 Speaker 3: that she had kind of a week ago, in particular Pennsylvania, 57 00:03:04,244 --> 00:03:05,964 Speaker 3: a state where you know, I would have urged her 58 00:03:06,004 --> 00:03:06,924 Speaker 3: to pick Joshapiro. 59 00:03:07,044 --> 00:03:09,484 Speaker 2: You've seen Poles showing a tie there. 60 00:03:09,524 --> 00:03:12,844 Speaker 3: On the other hand, these other new pathways, like she's 61 00:03:12,884 --> 00:03:18,964 Speaker 3: actually you know, a slight favorite in our forecast in Arizona, 62 00:03:19,324 --> 00:03:22,004 Speaker 3: for example, which not a huge shock. I mean, Democrats 63 00:03:22,004 --> 00:03:25,724 Speaker 3: won Arizona in twenty twenty, but that's a state where 64 00:03:25,924 --> 00:03:29,204 Speaker 3: Biden had been way behind. And you know, Nevadas a 65 00:03:29,244 --> 00:03:32,644 Speaker 3: toss up Georgia, and perhaps. 66 00:03:32,324 --> 00:03:35,924 Speaker 2: More surprisably pronounce that state might Nevada. We no, I 67 00:03:36,564 --> 00:03:39,004 Speaker 2: use good job Nevada. It's like I get psyched out, 68 00:03:39,044 --> 00:03:39,924 Speaker 2: you know, like I used to. 69 00:03:39,844 --> 00:03:43,404 Speaker 3: Have an employee work with named Meghan, right, but like 70 00:03:43,444 --> 00:03:46,004 Speaker 3: I always know is Megan or Megan and then and 71 00:03:46,164 --> 00:03:49,844 Speaker 3: by the way, I think like people's pronunciation, like Sarah 72 00:03:50,124 --> 00:03:53,804 Speaker 3: sr a h and Sarah sa ra are different names. 73 00:03:53,524 --> 00:03:56,964 Speaker 2: By the way, I think people shouldn't Anyway, She's. 74 00:03:56,804 --> 00:04:00,604 Speaker 3: Also actually quite close in Georgia and perhaps more surprisingly, 75 00:04:01,244 --> 00:04:03,244 Speaker 3: North Carolina. I mean, some of this is the fact 76 00:04:03,284 --> 00:04:08,404 Speaker 3: that she's doing better with voters of color, with younger 77 00:04:08,484 --> 00:04:11,004 Speaker 3: voters groups that mister Biden. Why am I saying, mister Biden, 78 00:04:11,044 --> 00:04:13,764 Speaker 3: I'm saying, mister Bidens just filed a New York Times story. 79 00:04:13,804 --> 00:04:14,444 Speaker 2: This is the first. 80 00:04:16,324 --> 00:04:21,204 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, she's doing better than Biden among like young 81 00:04:21,444 --> 00:04:24,004 Speaker 4: voters of color, and those are plentiful in North Carolina 82 00:04:24,404 --> 00:04:26,804 Speaker 4: and Georgia, young black voters, young Asian voters at TETRA. 83 00:04:27,884 --> 00:04:30,804 Speaker 3: So she, you know, maybe is less dependent on Pennsylvania 84 00:04:30,844 --> 00:04:35,524 Speaker 3: than Biden was. But yeah, look, I think people can 85 00:04:35,524 --> 00:04:38,164 Speaker 3: make the mistake of when the chart is going up, 86 00:04:38,844 --> 00:04:40,844 Speaker 3: they assume it's going to keep going up, when in 87 00:04:40,884 --> 00:04:43,644 Speaker 3: fact it's something I would call a random walk more 88 00:04:43,724 --> 00:04:47,604 Speaker 3: or less. Right, you know, clearly it seems like there 89 00:04:47,684 --> 00:04:51,804 Speaker 3: was some something that wasn't priced into Harris as pulling 90 00:04:51,884 --> 00:04:53,644 Speaker 3: at first, people getting used to the idea of her 91 00:04:53,684 --> 00:04:56,324 Speaker 3: being the nominee, and she kind of reverted from being 92 00:04:56,404 --> 00:04:59,764 Speaker 3: three points behind to three points ahead two and a 93 00:04:59,764 --> 00:05:01,164 Speaker 3: half points ahead, which in some ways is a typical 94 00:05:01,244 --> 00:05:03,564 Speaker 3: number for Democrats. I mean, Hillary Clinton won the popular 95 00:05:03,644 --> 00:05:06,884 Speaker 3: vote by by two points, lost the Electoral College. 96 00:05:06,924 --> 00:05:09,604 Speaker 2: Of course, Joe Biden won it by four and a 97 00:05:09,604 --> 00:05:10,044 Speaker 2: half points. 98 00:05:10,084 --> 00:05:11,884 Speaker 3: So if she's in the two and a half to 99 00:05:11,964 --> 00:05:15,964 Speaker 3: three point range, and that's pretty normal for a Democrat. However, 100 00:05:17,324 --> 00:05:20,804 Speaker 3: our model is expecting that she will continue to rise 101 00:05:20,844 --> 00:05:23,684 Speaker 3: in the polls after the DNC. That's what we call 102 00:05:23,724 --> 00:05:29,844 Speaker 3: a convention bumper convention bounce. Typically this lasts for you know, 103 00:05:30,204 --> 00:05:32,404 Speaker 3: the day after the convention, you've had four days of 104 00:05:32,444 --> 00:05:36,764 Speaker 3: free television advertising on every network. You tend to see 105 00:05:36,764 --> 00:05:39,044 Speaker 3: your polls rise. It's like buying a lot of free airtime. 106 00:05:40,524 --> 00:05:42,564 Speaker 3: Then that fades over about three weeks. So we would 107 00:05:42,604 --> 00:05:45,524 Speaker 3: expect her to get to maybe four or five point 108 00:05:45,604 --> 00:05:49,124 Speaker 3: lead in national polls and be ahead in the large 109 00:05:49,124 --> 00:05:51,044 Speaker 3: majority of swing state poles, and then it resets by 110 00:05:51,044 --> 00:05:53,044 Speaker 3: the time we get to the second debate on September 111 00:05:53,524 --> 00:05:56,404 Speaker 3: tenth or her first debate second debate of the campaign 112 00:05:56,684 --> 00:05:58,684 Speaker 3: on September tenth in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. 113 00:05:58,764 --> 00:06:00,604 Speaker 2: So that's kind of the basic lay of the land, 114 00:06:00,644 --> 00:06:01,044 Speaker 2: I think. 115 00:06:01,484 --> 00:06:03,964 Speaker 1: Yeah, so there are a few things in there. One, 116 00:06:04,044 --> 00:06:07,404 Speaker 1: I do think that there is this psychological phenomenon that 117 00:06:07,404 --> 00:06:11,324 Speaker 1: has been documented everywhere. When you know, charts are going 118 00:06:11,404 --> 00:06:14,484 Speaker 1: up or down, people just expect that to continue. So 119 00:06:14,604 --> 00:06:17,084 Speaker 1: this is true like in the stock market, this is 120 00:06:17,084 --> 00:06:20,164 Speaker 1: true like pretty universally right when when things are going up, 121 00:06:20,204 --> 00:06:22,964 Speaker 1: like you just think that it's going to constantly go up. 122 00:06:23,164 --> 00:06:26,004 Speaker 1: And that's why it's so ridiculously difficult to like, you know, 123 00:06:26,084 --> 00:06:29,284 Speaker 1: sell the sell the top right. People usually miss that 124 00:06:29,964 --> 00:06:33,164 Speaker 1: because they just think, you know, or the housing bubble 125 00:06:33,244 --> 00:06:35,524 Speaker 1: right like, it's going to just keep keep getting better, 126 00:06:35,564 --> 00:06:38,724 Speaker 1: It's going to keep going up. This is psychologically just 127 00:06:39,684 --> 00:06:46,324 Speaker 1: very very very prevalent, and human psychology doesn't want to 128 00:06:46,364 --> 00:06:48,604 Speaker 1: think that the body like, oh shit, you know, it 129 00:06:48,684 --> 00:06:51,484 Speaker 1: might start going in the other direction. And so the 130 00:06:51,524 --> 00:06:53,524 Speaker 1: funny thing is, like all of the research that I've 131 00:06:53,564 --> 00:06:56,324 Speaker 1: seen and that I've done has been in just given 132 00:06:56,364 --> 00:07:00,284 Speaker 1: the fact that you know, I did my dissertation on 133 00:07:00,404 --> 00:07:03,764 Speaker 1: risky decision making but looked at stock markets. So that's 134 00:07:03,844 --> 00:07:07,164 Speaker 1: kind of the the box that I've always seen it in. 135 00:07:07,324 --> 00:07:09,604 Speaker 1: But it makes so much sense that with pulling it 136 00:07:09,644 --> 00:07:12,044 Speaker 1: would be it would be something similar where like you 137 00:07:12,084 --> 00:07:15,484 Speaker 1: expect those trajectories to continue, and if they don't, you're like, 138 00:07:15,524 --> 00:07:18,444 Speaker 1: oh my god, you know, oops, what happened? And it's 139 00:07:18,444 --> 00:07:21,404 Speaker 1: obviously much more important to get it right in these 140 00:07:21,444 --> 00:07:22,964 Speaker 1: particular arenas. 141 00:07:23,244 --> 00:07:24,844 Speaker 3: No, And in poker, one thing I always say is 142 00:07:24,844 --> 00:07:27,444 Speaker 3: the chips have no memory of the previous hands, right 143 00:07:27,684 --> 00:07:29,324 Speaker 3: the other place a table might. But if you go 144 00:07:29,364 --> 00:07:31,724 Speaker 3: from twenty five K to fifty k, it's the same 145 00:07:31,764 --> 00:07:33,604 Speaker 3: as going from one hundred k taking bad be going 146 00:07:33,604 --> 00:07:35,804 Speaker 3: to fifty k, and you have to, if anything, you 147 00:07:35,844 --> 00:07:37,524 Speaker 3: might want to resist the urge. I mean, I think 148 00:07:38,644 --> 00:07:40,644 Speaker 3: there's winners tilt when you've been on a winning streak 149 00:07:40,644 --> 00:07:44,524 Speaker 3: and you start making rash decisions, and there's losers tilt 150 00:07:44,524 --> 00:07:45,804 Speaker 3: when you lose a big stack and then blow the 151 00:07:45,804 --> 00:07:47,964 Speaker 3: bush of it off. We talked before about the analogies 152 00:07:48,004 --> 00:07:53,804 Speaker 3: of Trump potentially being on tilt, but yeah, I mean, look, 153 00:07:53,804 --> 00:07:56,924 Speaker 3: it's still a tough campaign. If you want to make 154 00:07:57,004 --> 00:08:02,164 Speaker 3: the slightly contrarian bullish argument for Trump. Right then you'd say, Okay, well, 155 00:08:02,244 --> 00:08:05,284 Speaker 3: number one, maybe she already got her convention bounce. You 156 00:08:05,324 --> 00:08:07,804 Speaker 3: had very positive press coverage and the very exciting story 157 00:08:08,084 --> 00:08:09,964 Speaker 3: which you won the nomination. So maybe that was her 158 00:08:10,044 --> 00:08:12,764 Speaker 3: high water market came a week ago, and then and 159 00:08:12,764 --> 00:08:15,844 Speaker 3: then she'll stall out and it'll be close. But remember 160 00:08:15,884 --> 00:08:18,644 Speaker 3: Republicans have an advantage to the electoral college still on 161 00:08:18,684 --> 00:08:21,204 Speaker 3: our map, although it's narrower. Actually this is important. We 162 00:08:21,284 --> 00:08:23,284 Speaker 3: have an edge is being narrower than in twenty sixteen 163 00:08:23,284 --> 00:08:25,924 Speaker 3: and twenty twenty. If she wins by one and a 164 00:08:25,964 --> 00:08:28,204 Speaker 3: half points in the popular vote, we would have the 165 00:08:28,204 --> 00:08:30,124 Speaker 3: election then as a toss up. So it's less than 166 00:08:30,164 --> 00:08:33,884 Speaker 3: Hillary Clinton won by. We could talk about the reasons 167 00:08:33,884 --> 00:08:36,404 Speaker 3: for that maybe or not. But yeah, and you'd say, look, 168 00:08:36,444 --> 00:08:39,044 Speaker 3: and Trump has been very unfocused, but he's eventually, i mean, 169 00:08:39,084 --> 00:08:41,964 Speaker 3: a presidential election is something that's you want to win, right, 170 00:08:41,964 --> 00:08:45,724 Speaker 3: He'll eventually figure out better messaging about the economy and 171 00:08:45,724 --> 00:08:48,004 Speaker 3: the border. We're going to talk about Harrison the economy 172 00:08:48,004 --> 00:08:52,444 Speaker 3: in a minute. But yeah, there's still a pretty decent 173 00:08:52,484 --> 00:08:56,524 Speaker 3: case for Trump that her momentum has stalled out now 174 00:08:57,004 --> 00:08:58,884 Speaker 3: and that this should be a very strong period for her, 175 00:08:58,924 --> 00:09:02,324 Speaker 3: and she's in the lead, but not by much. And 176 00:09:02,324 --> 00:09:04,004 Speaker 3: they have a lot of ammunition that they still have 177 00:09:04,084 --> 00:09:05,084 Speaker 3: opportunities to fire. 178 00:09:05,884 --> 00:09:08,204 Speaker 1: Yeah, and so one other thing that you said, which 179 00:09:08,204 --> 00:09:10,164 Speaker 1: I think is interesting that we should should talk about 180 00:09:10,244 --> 00:09:14,324 Speaker 1: for a little bit. You had said that that initial momentum, 181 00:09:14,444 --> 00:09:17,644 Speaker 1: it seemed like maybe things weren't priced in right correctly 182 00:09:17,684 --> 00:09:21,324 Speaker 1: at the beginning where people were Kamala Harris was basically 183 00:09:21,484 --> 00:09:25,644 Speaker 1: outperforming expectations because expectations were set too low. And I 184 00:09:25,684 --> 00:09:29,284 Speaker 1: think that there are if you look at the psychology 185 00:09:29,364 --> 00:09:33,604 Speaker 1: literature of women who reach positions of power, right of 186 00:09:33,644 --> 00:09:36,004 Speaker 1: females in leadership, I think there are a lot of 187 00:09:36,044 --> 00:09:39,444 Speaker 1: good reasons why this would be the case, because oftentimes 188 00:09:39,844 --> 00:09:43,724 Speaker 1: the expectations are kind of people don't even realize it, 189 00:09:43,844 --> 00:09:47,164 Speaker 1: but the way that they kind of see someone. And 190 00:09:47,284 --> 00:09:48,804 Speaker 1: all of these studies, by the way, are not on 191 00:09:48,884 --> 00:09:52,604 Speaker 1: presidential candidates because there's you know, there's an end of 192 00:09:52,764 --> 00:09:58,004 Speaker 1: two now, but they're in you know, CEOs, CFOs kind 193 00:09:58,004 --> 00:10:00,484 Speaker 1: of women in those types of leadership roles, and you 194 00:10:00,724 --> 00:10:05,644 Speaker 1: find that over and over there are these expectations that 195 00:10:05,684 --> 00:10:07,924 Speaker 1: they're not quite gonna they're not quite going to hack it, 196 00:10:08,004 --> 00:10:11,204 Speaker 1: and their expectations are lower going in, and they're kind 197 00:10:11,204 --> 00:10:14,964 Speaker 1: of seen differently, and a lot of the same personality 198 00:10:15,044 --> 00:10:18,364 Speaker 1: traits and characteristics that help them get there then start 199 00:10:18,364 --> 00:10:21,044 Speaker 1: being seen in a negative light, and people start predicting 200 00:10:21,244 --> 00:10:23,764 Speaker 1: that they're not going to do as well because they 201 00:10:23,764 --> 00:10:26,164 Speaker 1: don't think that they're Oh they're not as charismatic, or 202 00:10:26,484 --> 00:10:29,044 Speaker 1: you know, you know, she's too cold, or she's to this, 203 00:10:29,244 --> 00:10:31,484 Speaker 1: or she's to that. So people aren't going to like her, 204 00:10:31,644 --> 00:10:34,484 Speaker 1: and they project that onto them, and so the kind 205 00:10:34,484 --> 00:10:36,524 Speaker 1: of the projections end up being incorrect. And I think 206 00:10:36,564 --> 00:10:39,604 Speaker 1: we're probably seeing that some of that had happened with 207 00:10:39,684 --> 00:10:43,724 Speaker 1: Kamala and that people didn't realize, oh wait, you know, 208 00:10:44,844 --> 00:10:47,164 Speaker 1: this might be some bias at play and not actually 209 00:10:47,244 --> 00:10:48,524 Speaker 1: how she's going to be performing. 210 00:10:49,324 --> 00:10:52,484 Speaker 3: There's an old Gerald Ford cliff where some student asks 211 00:10:52,564 --> 00:10:54,084 Speaker 3: him do you think a woman could ever be president? 212 00:10:55,444 --> 00:10:56,844 Speaker 3: And the answers in a way that I'm sure he 213 00:10:56,884 --> 00:11:00,044 Speaker 3: thought at the time was quite progressive. Right, He's like, well, 214 00:11:00,604 --> 00:11:03,724 Speaker 3: you know, I could imagine a woman being vice president 215 00:11:03,924 --> 00:11:06,604 Speaker 3: and then something happens to the president and she takes 216 00:11:06,604 --> 00:11:10,444 Speaker 3: over and she's quite competent, right, So it wasn't quite 217 00:11:10,484 --> 00:11:12,244 Speaker 3: willing to, and then he said, and then maybe that 218 00:11:12,284 --> 00:11:14,724 Speaker 3: would open the door for it, right, But just kind 219 00:11:14,724 --> 00:11:17,804 Speaker 3: of in stages here. I do think that, like, you know, 220 00:11:18,324 --> 00:11:22,564 Speaker 3: maybe partly for gender and race related reasons and the 221 00:11:22,604 --> 00:11:25,044 Speaker 3: fact that you know, Biden had been losing to Trump, 222 00:11:25,204 --> 00:11:27,324 Speaker 3: and that like anything seemed you know, a thirty five 223 00:11:27,324 --> 00:11:29,844 Speaker 3: percent chance, which is what I thought she'd have before 224 00:11:29,884 --> 00:11:32,804 Speaker 3: we before we saw this polling surge is comparably better 225 00:11:32,844 --> 00:11:38,884 Speaker 3: than Biden's odds. So she benefited from low expectations, from 226 00:11:39,524 --> 00:11:42,844 Speaker 3: softer media coverage. And look, she's doing fine. But I 227 00:11:42,844 --> 00:11:46,924 Speaker 3: agree Maria that, like you know, if she's perceived as 228 00:11:46,964 --> 00:11:50,244 Speaker 3: the front runner, it's now her race to lose again. 229 00:11:51,084 --> 00:11:51,844 Speaker 2: That can be tougher. 230 00:11:52,804 --> 00:11:56,524 Speaker 1: Absolutely, it's in some ways the underdog story, especially when 231 00:11:56,524 --> 00:11:59,924 Speaker 1: we're talking about the United States, has so much power. 232 00:12:00,524 --> 00:12:04,404 Speaker 1: People love the underdog, whether it's in sports teams or 233 00:12:04,884 --> 00:12:07,644 Speaker 1: or in political stories or or anything else. And you know, 234 00:12:07,764 --> 00:12:10,044 Speaker 1: you love the You love to hear it, right, you 235 00:12:10,124 --> 00:12:12,764 Speaker 1: love to see it. And if she flips and is 236 00:12:12,844 --> 00:12:17,604 Speaker 1: no longer the underdog for enough time, people's memory is 237 00:12:17,644 --> 00:12:20,324 Speaker 1: also short. Right at this point, we're like, oh yeah, 238 00:12:20,324 --> 00:12:22,564 Speaker 1: they're like Oh yeah, Kamala Harris is a candidate, right, 239 00:12:22,604 --> 00:12:24,884 Speaker 1: you forget that just you know, a month ago we 240 00:12:24,884 --> 00:12:28,324 Speaker 1: were talking about Biden has to step down. People's memories 241 00:12:28,324 --> 00:12:28,764 Speaker 1: are short. 242 00:12:29,324 --> 00:12:33,404 Speaker 3: I mean, look, partly I think the media has not 243 00:12:33,524 --> 00:12:35,724 Speaker 3: covered the Joe Biden age beat. Well, they covered it 244 00:12:35,764 --> 00:12:38,004 Speaker 3: as a beat when it affected the horse race, whether 245 00:12:38,604 --> 00:12:40,404 Speaker 3: Biden or Harris someone else be the candy. 246 00:12:41,404 --> 00:12:45,244 Speaker 2: But it's also a governance story. Yeah. I look. 247 00:12:45,284 --> 00:12:47,364 Speaker 3: I these people on the left who think like the 248 00:12:47,404 --> 00:12:49,964 Speaker 3: media is biased, the mainstream media is biased against the 249 00:12:50,124 --> 00:12:54,484 Speaker 3: Democratic Party are fucking crazy. But leaving that aside for now, 250 00:12:54,524 --> 00:12:57,724 Speaker 3: I do think that, like Harris has this weird thing 251 00:12:57,884 --> 00:13:02,044 Speaker 3: where she's kind of running in some ways against the 252 00:13:02,084 --> 00:13:04,804 Speaker 3: incumbent party a little bit, right, I mean, what's it's like, 253 00:13:04,804 --> 00:13:08,124 Speaker 3: We're going forward, not back, even though she is technically 254 00:13:08,164 --> 00:13:11,404 Speaker 3: the incumbent parties carrenate. In fact, I made a mistake 255 00:13:11,924 --> 00:13:14,604 Speaker 3: the other day. We ran our model and I was tired, 256 00:13:15,084 --> 00:13:18,644 Speaker 3: and I just double checked the numbers before we publish, right, 257 00:13:19,244 --> 00:13:23,004 Speaker 3: and basically I conflated in my head the incumbent and 258 00:13:23,044 --> 00:13:24,964 Speaker 3: the challenger because in our model, the candidates are not 259 00:13:25,044 --> 00:13:29,324 Speaker 3: labeled Harris, Trump or even Democrat Republican and their incumbent challenger, 260 00:13:30,444 --> 00:13:34,484 Speaker 3: and I'm like, why is the incumbent party's numbers going up? 261 00:13:34,484 --> 00:13:37,044 Speaker 3: I thought it's just gonna be good for Harris and 262 00:13:37,164 --> 00:13:39,564 Speaker 3: Trump's numbers are going up or whatever, right when in fact, 263 00:13:39,964 --> 00:13:42,804 Speaker 3: so I somehow thought of Trump, who has the president before, 264 00:13:43,324 --> 00:13:46,884 Speaker 3: as the incumbent, and Harris, who hasn't, as the challenger. 265 00:13:46,964 --> 00:13:50,364 Speaker 3: But of course, you know, she is the vice presidential 266 00:13:50,404 --> 00:13:52,604 Speaker 3: incumbent right now. So it's a little bit it's a 267 00:13:52,604 --> 00:13:54,084 Speaker 3: little bit confusing, I'd say. 268 00:13:53,884 --> 00:13:55,084 Speaker 2: Maria, it is. 269 00:13:55,364 --> 00:13:59,324 Speaker 1: It is confusing, and I'm actually curious, Like from I 270 00:13:59,364 --> 00:14:01,604 Speaker 1: think it's an interesting question when it comes to kind 271 00:14:01,644 --> 00:14:05,244 Speaker 1: of the polling, the statistics, all of that, because it 272 00:14:05,324 --> 00:14:08,564 Speaker 1: is something that people don't really think about when we 273 00:14:08,604 --> 00:14:12,084 Speaker 1: talk about kind of the psychology of the underdog narrative 274 00:14:12,164 --> 00:14:17,844 Speaker 1: incumbent challenger Trump was, you know, President Trump. And it's 275 00:14:18,444 --> 00:14:22,964 Speaker 1: an unprecedented kind of situation where we've switched where you 276 00:14:23,084 --> 00:14:26,604 Speaker 1: had one person running. It's literally unprecedented, right, this has 277 00:14:26,644 --> 00:14:29,164 Speaker 1: never happened in the United States before, where all of 278 00:14:29,204 --> 00:14:29,804 Speaker 1: a sudden. 279 00:14:29,724 --> 00:14:31,124 Speaker 3: At this stage, I mean, so we only have the 280 00:14:31,164 --> 00:14:36,724 Speaker 3: current primary system since nineteen sixty eight or seventy two roughly, 281 00:14:37,604 --> 00:14:41,204 Speaker 3: you know, you did have LBJ get his clock cleaned 282 00:14:41,284 --> 00:14:43,804 Speaker 3: in the New Hampshire primary or underperform expectations is the 283 00:14:43,844 --> 00:14:46,364 Speaker 3: more proper framing of that. And then withdraw and in fact, 284 00:14:46,404 --> 00:14:50,884 Speaker 3: throughout American history, I mean, Wilson Truman, these people, old 285 00:14:50,964 --> 00:14:54,044 Speaker 3: men are stubborn and kind of had to be like 286 00:14:54,524 --> 00:14:57,404 Speaker 3: pushed off stage. And before the party had complete power 287 00:14:57,444 --> 00:15:00,244 Speaker 3: to do that, and now it has very limited powers, 288 00:15:00,244 --> 00:15:02,284 Speaker 3: has to work through persuasion. And then if had things 289 00:15:02,284 --> 00:15:04,884 Speaker 3: had gotten messy at the convention, then we would have seen. 290 00:15:06,204 --> 00:15:10,604 Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, I think I think she's been 291 00:15:10,684 --> 00:15:13,004 Speaker 3: lucky that, like the Trump campaign hasn't been able to 292 00:15:13,284 --> 00:15:16,724 Speaker 3: tie here to Biden more so far. Maybe they will 293 00:15:16,724 --> 00:15:19,804 Speaker 3: be maybe you say, look, this whole mess is her mess, 294 00:15:19,804 --> 00:15:22,284 Speaker 3: and she's responsible for it. In fact, she's to his 295 00:15:22,444 --> 00:15:24,684 Speaker 3: left and things like that. But they, like I said, 296 00:15:24,684 --> 00:15:27,404 Speaker 3: they seem to be not on their a game right now. 297 00:15:27,564 --> 00:15:27,884 Speaker 2: Trump. 298 00:15:28,604 --> 00:15:31,764 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's very true, and I think that 299 00:15:31,804 --> 00:15:35,444 Speaker 1: she is trying to book that narrative a little bit. 300 00:15:35,724 --> 00:15:38,124 Speaker 1: But like I said, in terms of prediction, it is 301 00:15:38,324 --> 00:15:42,964 Speaker 1: very very difficult because she's incumbent but not incumbent, and 302 00:15:43,004 --> 00:15:45,764 Speaker 1: I don't think she wants to be identified as incumbent 303 00:15:45,884 --> 00:15:49,164 Speaker 1: so so far, so you know, in her choice of walls, 304 00:15:49,844 --> 00:15:52,564 Speaker 1: and because if they're really trying to say, like you know, 305 00:15:52,724 --> 00:15:55,484 Speaker 1: we're we're bringing something fresh and new and we're not 306 00:15:55,564 --> 00:15:58,284 Speaker 1: responsible for a lot of the bad stuff and trying 307 00:15:58,284 --> 00:16:00,524 Speaker 1: to shed that and trying to have this nice and 308 00:16:00,564 --> 00:16:04,844 Speaker 1: shiny new image, which has been helpful so far. But 309 00:16:05,324 --> 00:16:08,204 Speaker 1: I wonder if that is if they're going to be 310 00:16:08,244 --> 00:16:11,444 Speaker 1: able to hold it, because is the Trump campaign was 311 00:16:11,524 --> 00:16:14,324 Speaker 1: really unprepared for this. I think that's very clear. And 312 00:16:14,364 --> 00:16:16,724 Speaker 1: we were talking about this before and so they didn't 313 00:16:16,724 --> 00:16:19,204 Speaker 1: have their shit together, and so far as it. 314 00:16:19,124 --> 00:16:21,684 Speaker 3: Comes to we've made this point before, she wanted to 315 00:16:21,724 --> 00:16:24,404 Speaker 3: underscore one more time, like, how can you not prep 316 00:16:24,444 --> 00:16:27,404 Speaker 3: for this if you have like a team, you're an 317 00:16:27,484 --> 00:16:32,124 Speaker 3: NFL team, and the team's starting quarterback is questionable and 318 00:16:32,204 --> 00:16:35,004 Speaker 3: the backups totally different style, he's like a scrambler or 319 00:16:35,044 --> 00:16:37,164 Speaker 3: something like, how do you not fucking prepare a game 320 00:16:37,164 --> 00:16:41,604 Speaker 3: plan for both eventualities? But maybe we should start to 321 00:16:41,644 --> 00:16:43,724 Speaker 3: move on a little bit to policy, and we don't 322 00:16:43,724 --> 00:16:44,884 Speaker 3: do a lot of policy stuff. I do want to 323 00:16:44,884 --> 00:16:46,404 Speaker 3: ask you one more question than Maria. Yeah, on the 324 00:16:46,444 --> 00:16:49,604 Speaker 3: incumbency thing. Just get your intuition or expertise or whatever. 325 00:16:50,084 --> 00:16:54,604 Speaker 3: Suppose that tomorrow Joe Biden has some medical missap. I 326 00:16:54,604 --> 00:16:58,484 Speaker 3: don't want to speculate, Okay, which it is doesn't kill him, 327 00:16:58,484 --> 00:17:02,084 Speaker 3: but he can't be president anymore. And Harris inherits the presidency, 328 00:17:02,524 --> 00:17:03,924 Speaker 3: do you have any sense for that would help her 329 00:17:04,044 --> 00:17:04,484 Speaker 3: or hurt her? 330 00:17:06,084 --> 00:17:09,964 Speaker 1: I think that given her story right now, and given 331 00:17:10,084 --> 00:17:13,604 Speaker 1: what she's going for, if I had to guess, and 332 00:17:13,644 --> 00:17:16,124 Speaker 1: this is pure speculation based on kind of what I 333 00:17:16,204 --> 00:17:19,004 Speaker 1: know of kind of human psychology and what we've been 334 00:17:19,044 --> 00:17:23,364 Speaker 1: talking about with momentum and that sort of thing, I 335 00:17:23,444 --> 00:17:26,444 Speaker 1: think that it might actually hurt her if she had 336 00:17:26,484 --> 00:17:30,604 Speaker 1: to assume the presidency for a few months, because what 337 00:17:30,884 --> 00:17:34,044 Speaker 1: happens if there has to be a very unpopular policy decision, 338 00:17:34,364 --> 00:17:36,044 Speaker 1: like what if something happens in the Middle East and 339 00:17:36,084 --> 00:17:38,564 Speaker 1: she has to make a very unpopular policy choice, and 340 00:17:38,564 --> 00:17:41,964 Speaker 1: it's one hundred percent on her because she's the acting president, 341 00:17:42,404 --> 00:17:44,284 Speaker 1: you know, I think that there's a lot of potential 342 00:17:44,364 --> 00:17:48,004 Speaker 1: downside there, and not a lot of potential upside because 343 00:17:48,084 --> 00:17:51,164 Speaker 1: it's not like she's going to get presidential experience that 344 00:17:51,244 --> 00:17:54,484 Speaker 1: she doesn't have now in two months, So I think 345 00:17:54,524 --> 00:17:57,764 Speaker 1: that people can then have very very specific things to 346 00:17:57,804 --> 00:18:00,924 Speaker 1: pin on her that she won't be able to talk 347 00:18:01,004 --> 00:18:03,644 Speaker 1: around or kind of shrug off. And I think it 348 00:18:03,644 --> 00:18:06,684 Speaker 1: will make it easier for the Trump campaign to get 349 00:18:06,724 --> 00:18:10,804 Speaker 1: their shit together. But who knows. 350 00:18:11,364 --> 00:18:13,404 Speaker 3: All right, So instance, it's kind of the Kamala Show. 351 00:18:13,764 --> 00:18:17,124 Speaker 3: We're gonna also the Kamala Kamala edition. I guess I 352 00:18:17,164 --> 00:18:18,084 Speaker 3: received business Kamala. 353 00:18:18,124 --> 00:18:19,644 Speaker 2: Addition, we're going to. 354 00:18:19,684 --> 00:18:23,764 Speaker 3: Talk more about her economic policies, which walks, like me, 355 00:18:24,324 --> 00:18:28,524 Speaker 3: neoliberal economics walks think are very dubious. Uh, but we'll 356 00:18:28,524 --> 00:18:30,884 Speaker 3: talk about that more after this commercial break. 357 00:18:42,564 --> 00:18:44,964 Speaker 1: One of the things that people have been I think 358 00:18:45,004 --> 00:18:49,844 Speaker 1: the most upset about is rising prices everywhere, especially when 359 00:18:49,884 --> 00:18:52,324 Speaker 1: you go to the store, right and you look at 360 00:18:52,364 --> 00:18:55,244 Speaker 1: your and you look at the bottom line on your check, 361 00:18:55,244 --> 00:18:57,244 Speaker 1: and you're like, holy shit, how did this happen? It 362 00:18:57,244 --> 00:18:59,884 Speaker 1: happens to me too, right when I when I go 363 00:19:00,004 --> 00:19:02,124 Speaker 1: to like Whole Foods, or to Union Market, which is 364 00:19:02,164 --> 00:19:06,244 Speaker 1: my local grocery store here in New York, or Sprouts 365 00:19:06,244 --> 00:19:08,244 Speaker 1: when I'm in Vegas and I look at the bottom 366 00:19:08,604 --> 00:19:11,484 Speaker 1: and I'm like wait, wait, what did I buy? You know, 367 00:19:11,564 --> 00:19:14,484 Speaker 1: and and how how did how did this happen? Like 368 00:19:15,164 --> 00:19:17,524 Speaker 1: how much did things cost? Because I don't usually look 369 00:19:17,884 --> 00:19:20,044 Speaker 1: and then and then I have sticker shock, and I 370 00:19:20,044 --> 00:19:23,004 Speaker 1: think a lot of people are seeing that, and it's 371 00:19:23,044 --> 00:19:27,204 Speaker 1: given rise to one of Kamala Harris's first proposals, you know, 372 00:19:27,284 --> 00:19:31,404 Speaker 1: first actual policy proposals. Nate, do you want to talk 373 00:19:31,444 --> 00:19:35,724 Speaker 1: a little bit about what the Harris campaign has proposed 374 00:19:35,884 --> 00:19:37,964 Speaker 1: when it comes to what they've termed price gouging. 375 00:19:38,684 --> 00:19:42,284 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's actually a little bit vague what they proposed, 376 00:19:42,284 --> 00:19:43,884 Speaker 3: which maybe is a reason to take it a bit 377 00:19:43,964 --> 00:19:48,404 Speaker 3: less seriously. Some states have bans on price gouging, the 378 00:19:48,404 --> 00:19:52,404 Speaker 3: federal government doesn't. They're hard to enforce in any eventuality. 379 00:19:52,444 --> 00:19:54,284 Speaker 3: If it's happening, it's kind of very local level. 380 00:19:55,484 --> 00:19:55,724 Speaker 2: I mean. 381 00:19:55,724 --> 00:19:59,764 Speaker 3: The classic economist response is to say that price gouging 382 00:20:00,084 --> 00:20:02,324 Speaker 3: is they shouldn't be called price gouging. It's an economically 383 00:20:02,404 --> 00:20:07,084 Speaker 3: rational response to limited supply, and that charging higher prices 384 00:20:07,244 --> 00:20:11,444 Speaker 3: encourages suppliers to produce or goods. That if you don't 385 00:20:11,444 --> 00:20:13,644 Speaker 3: have price couching, then all that actually happens is you 386 00:20:13,684 --> 00:20:18,204 Speaker 3: have more queuing people. Wait, in line for longer to 387 00:20:18,244 --> 00:20:22,124 Speaker 3: purchase these items that they want. So yeah, the economist 388 00:20:22,164 --> 00:20:27,204 Speaker 3: braining part of me really thinks this is kind of icky. 389 00:20:28,324 --> 00:20:31,364 Speaker 1: Just to say, the reason that I was talking about 390 00:20:31,404 --> 00:20:34,484 Speaker 1: being in grocery stores is Kamala Harris is talking specifically 391 00:20:34,524 --> 00:20:37,244 Speaker 1: about price gouging when it comes to groceries, so not 392 00:20:37,244 --> 00:20:38,804 Speaker 1: not price grouching more broadly. 393 00:20:39,084 --> 00:20:40,364 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, and you hear it, and I mean 394 00:20:40,404 --> 00:20:43,044 Speaker 3: you don't hear about price gouging of like medical services 395 00:20:43,044 --> 00:20:44,964 Speaker 3: as much. Right, it's the things where you literally see 396 00:20:45,524 --> 00:20:48,964 Speaker 3: literal sticker shock right in the grocery store and gas 397 00:20:48,964 --> 00:20:51,364 Speaker 3: prices of the two where it's most often becomes an issue. 398 00:20:52,164 --> 00:20:56,404 Speaker 1: And at the World Series this is not technically price gouging. 399 00:20:56,444 --> 00:20:59,444 Speaker 1: But I have to ask you, Nate, can you so 400 00:20:59,844 --> 00:21:02,604 Speaker 1: I had to buy a banana during the World Series 401 00:21:02,644 --> 00:21:05,844 Speaker 1: of Poker. You did not have to buy a banana 402 00:21:05,924 --> 00:21:07,844 Speaker 1: at the World Series of Poker as far as I know, 403 00:21:08,084 --> 00:21:08,404 Speaker 1: did you. 404 00:21:09,164 --> 00:21:10,804 Speaker 2: I'm not really into bananas. 405 00:21:11,044 --> 00:21:13,724 Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, So well, bananas are really good food for 406 00:21:13,764 --> 00:21:16,124 Speaker 1: eating at the poker table because you know, it's it's 407 00:21:16,284 --> 00:21:19,324 Speaker 1: really like, it's healthy, nice energy, so you don't have 408 00:21:19,364 --> 00:21:20,524 Speaker 1: to touch it. You don't have to touch it. 409 00:21:20,604 --> 00:21:23,004 Speaker 3: The banana lobby is not gotten to me, Maria, like 410 00:21:23,004 --> 00:21:26,484 Speaker 3: they have to you, I know the hyghe potassium, all. 411 00:21:26,444 --> 00:21:28,484 Speaker 1: Right, all right, So I had to buy a banana. 412 00:21:28,644 --> 00:21:31,004 Speaker 1: Do you want to guess how much my banana cost? 413 00:21:31,724 --> 00:21:32,324 Speaker 2: Nine bucks? 414 00:21:33,164 --> 00:21:36,964 Speaker 1: It's a really, really good guess. It cost eight dollars. 415 00:21:36,604 --> 00:21:38,284 Speaker 3: Because you set me up to think it's some absurdly 416 00:21:38,324 --> 00:21:40,324 Speaker 3: high number. But really, they charged eight dollars for banana. 417 00:21:40,324 --> 00:21:42,084 Speaker 3: I thought it was going to say they charged no. 418 00:21:42,084 --> 00:21:44,444 Speaker 1: No, they charged eight dollars for a banana, which is 419 00:21:44,484 --> 00:21:46,484 Speaker 1: heartbreaking and it makes me want to just throw the 420 00:21:46,484 --> 00:21:48,884 Speaker 1: banana in their face. But I had to pay because 421 00:21:48,924 --> 00:21:50,964 Speaker 1: I really wanted that damn banana and they knew it. 422 00:21:51,084 --> 00:21:53,764 Speaker 1: So once again, technically, I know this is not price gouging. 423 00:21:53,804 --> 00:21:56,284 Speaker 1: This is very different. They have a monopoly. They're the 424 00:21:56,324 --> 00:21:59,164 Speaker 1: only vendors who are allowed to to kind of sell 425 00:21:59,444 --> 00:22:01,964 Speaker 1: at the World Series of Poker. But to me, like, 426 00:22:02,044 --> 00:22:04,044 Speaker 1: that's that's what I think about, and I think that 427 00:22:04,124 --> 00:22:06,044 Speaker 1: a lot of people are going to make faulty leafs 428 00:22:06,084 --> 00:22:08,564 Speaker 1: like that, right, And to say, oh, like, yeah, I'm 429 00:22:08,604 --> 00:22:10,564 Speaker 1: anti price gouge, so yeah, I don't want to pay 430 00:22:10,564 --> 00:22:12,884 Speaker 1: eight dollars for a banana, And I think that that's 431 00:22:12,884 --> 00:22:19,244 Speaker 1: sort of miss miss comprehension, misco miss, Yeah, what's what's 432 00:22:19,284 --> 00:22:20,164 Speaker 1: the word I'm looking for? 433 00:22:20,484 --> 00:22:27,124 Speaker 3: Misunderstanding can conflate that monopoly situation right in the situation 434 00:22:27,164 --> 00:22:31,044 Speaker 3: where you have one seller who's also the only supplier 435 00:22:31,124 --> 00:22:33,244 Speaker 3: of goods, there's no illegal banana. 436 00:22:32,924 --> 00:22:36,204 Speaker 2: Market outside the horseshoe or whatever, then. 437 00:22:36,124 --> 00:22:37,684 Speaker 3: It purely is you have. You know, it's just a 438 00:22:37,684 --> 00:22:40,044 Speaker 3: matter of how much profit they're taking. Right You're gonna 439 00:22:40,044 --> 00:22:42,404 Speaker 3: sell one hundred bananas. You can either sell them at 440 00:22:42,484 --> 00:22:44,724 Speaker 3: nine bucks or at eight bucks or at three bucks 441 00:22:44,724 --> 00:22:46,404 Speaker 3: to make a profit either way, and it's just money 442 00:22:46,404 --> 00:22:49,164 Speaker 3: coming out of of you know, the world series Pokers 443 00:22:49,164 --> 00:22:53,164 Speaker 3: pockets versus poker players prockets pockets. But this is now 444 00:22:53,164 --> 00:22:56,444 Speaker 3: a monopoly situation, and you know, you know, there are 445 00:22:56,524 --> 00:22:59,204 Speaker 3: multiple suppliers of every good that you buy at Sprouts 446 00:22:59,284 --> 00:23:01,684 Speaker 3: or Whole Foods, whichever other, whichever other's store were giving 447 00:23:01,724 --> 00:23:02,804 Speaker 3: free advertising to you right now. 448 00:23:03,484 --> 00:23:06,964 Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, But but I do think it's it's interesting that, 449 00:23:07,364 --> 00:23:10,124 Speaker 1: you know, brains do conflate things like that all the time. 450 00:23:10,364 --> 00:23:14,004 Speaker 1: The policies themselves are vague. This area is vague. There's 451 00:23:14,084 --> 00:23:16,924 Speaker 1: a lot of kind of lack of understanding around this, 452 00:23:17,164 --> 00:23:20,564 Speaker 1: and I think that politicians tend to take advantage of 453 00:23:20,604 --> 00:23:23,564 Speaker 1: that by creating policies that seem to pander to kind 454 00:23:23,564 --> 00:23:26,804 Speaker 1: of this general feeling of malaise and oh my god, 455 00:23:26,884 --> 00:23:29,204 Speaker 1: you know, banana shouldn't cost that much, and look at 456 00:23:29,244 --> 00:23:33,124 Speaker 1: my grocery bill and blah blah blah, and create policies 457 00:23:33,124 --> 00:23:38,484 Speaker 1: that might not be optimal, but that satisfy people at 458 00:23:38,564 --> 00:23:40,764 Speaker 1: least in the moment. And by the way, when we're 459 00:23:41,124 --> 00:23:44,084 Speaker 1: looking at the election cycle and we're not actually enacting 460 00:23:44,124 --> 00:23:46,724 Speaker 1: these policies and these policies are very vague, it's not 461 00:23:46,764 --> 00:23:50,284 Speaker 1: a bad strategy, right, you want to tell people nice things. 462 00:23:51,444 --> 00:23:53,844 Speaker 1: I've talked about Donald Trump as a con artist. I 463 00:23:53,884 --> 00:23:56,524 Speaker 1: don't think that the Democratic Party is a con artist. 464 00:23:56,524 --> 00:23:58,444 Speaker 1: I don't think that Republican Party is a con artist. 465 00:23:58,524 --> 00:24:01,044 Speaker 1: I think he's one very specific con artist. But that's 466 00:24:01,124 --> 00:24:04,804 Speaker 1: a that's a con artist strategy, right, Promise people can 467 00:24:04,964 --> 00:24:06,964 Speaker 1: give them what they want and then you don't actually 468 00:24:06,964 --> 00:24:10,484 Speaker 1: have to deliver. That's where con artistry and politics crossover. 469 00:24:10,844 --> 00:24:15,924 Speaker 3: It's pandering, for sure. She's proposed another category is not 470 00:24:16,444 --> 00:24:17,724 Speaker 3: taxing tipped. 471 00:24:18,524 --> 00:24:21,004 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is this is this is something that both 472 00:24:21,044 --> 00:24:24,404 Speaker 1: the Trump campaign and the Harris campaign have proposed that 473 00:24:24,524 --> 00:24:26,844 Speaker 1: if you're a worker who receives a lot of your 474 00:24:26,844 --> 00:24:30,404 Speaker 1: compensation and tips, then your tips will not be taxed. 475 00:24:30,564 --> 00:24:34,284 Speaker 1: And this is obviously very popular. It got the culinary 476 00:24:34,404 --> 00:24:37,524 Speaker 1: union in Las Vegas, which is the biggest union, absolutely 477 00:24:37,604 --> 00:24:39,924 Speaker 1: huge to get their support, but they threw it behind 478 00:24:40,004 --> 00:24:43,524 Speaker 1: the Democrats, which is important because Nevada is a swing state. 479 00:24:43,844 --> 00:24:46,244 Speaker 1: But that was right off the back of her saying 480 00:24:46,244 --> 00:24:48,204 Speaker 1: that tipped workers will not be taxed. 481 00:24:48,924 --> 00:24:51,924 Speaker 3: So what if instead of having a subscription to my 482 00:24:52,084 --> 00:24:54,724 Speaker 3: sub stack, I offer people to let me leave, to 483 00:24:54,804 --> 00:24:57,604 Speaker 3: leave a tip for me, which is then not tax 484 00:24:57,764 --> 00:25:01,884 Speaker 3: the roughly fifty five percent marginal rates I pay in 485 00:25:01,924 --> 00:25:05,404 Speaker 3: New York City as a high income taxpayer. Right, Like, 486 00:25:05,444 --> 00:25:07,284 Speaker 3: what I mean is that that's the problem too, is 487 00:25:07,284 --> 00:25:11,244 Speaker 3: that like this can easily be exploited or manipulated if 488 00:25:11,244 --> 00:25:14,244 Speaker 3: the policy isn't designed very well. But it's you know, 489 00:25:14,444 --> 00:25:16,884 Speaker 3: it's considered pretty inefficient to have things that can be 490 00:25:17,364 --> 00:25:18,564 Speaker 3: exploited in that way. 491 00:25:19,524 --> 00:25:22,044 Speaker 1: Yes, And in other economic news, you know, we have 492 00:25:22,124 --> 00:25:25,764 Speaker 1: Donald Trump who's proposing ten to twenty percent tariffs on goods. 493 00:25:26,044 --> 00:25:28,124 Speaker 1: So let's talk about tariffs for a second. 494 00:25:28,604 --> 00:25:32,484 Speaker 3: Yeah, this is another one where people's intuitions go away 495 00:25:32,524 --> 00:25:35,004 Speaker 3: against I mean, you know, the teriffs basically become a 496 00:25:35,124 --> 00:25:39,644 Speaker 3: tax on consumers that you know, and by the way, 497 00:25:39,644 --> 00:25:41,764 Speaker 3: people like I like going to the little market and 498 00:25:41,804 --> 00:25:44,484 Speaker 3: being able to get whatever goods I can from whichever 499 00:25:44,524 --> 00:25:46,844 Speaker 3: country produces them. I mean, it's one of the most 500 00:25:46,884 --> 00:25:49,044 Speaker 3: amazing things about the global economy. And if I want 501 00:25:49,044 --> 00:25:52,284 Speaker 3: my little you know, German wafer cookies or something like that, 502 00:25:52,564 --> 00:25:56,924 Speaker 3: or avocados from Mexico, where avocados from Peru somewhere. 503 00:25:56,604 --> 00:25:58,524 Speaker 1: In there are some from Mexico. Yeah, there are some 504 00:25:58,604 --> 00:26:01,684 Speaker 1: from California and Florida. There are avocados from lots of places, 505 00:26:01,684 --> 00:26:03,884 Speaker 1: but yes, Mexico is our is our friend when it 506 00:26:03,924 --> 00:26:05,124 Speaker 1: comes to avocado. 507 00:26:04,684 --> 00:26:08,844 Speaker 3: Imports my Fiji water, right, Like, I don't fucking tell 508 00:26:08,844 --> 00:26:12,444 Speaker 3: me what I have to pay more so, Yeah, So 509 00:26:12,484 --> 00:26:15,324 Speaker 3: tariffs are considered to be a dead weight loss, right, 510 00:26:15,444 --> 00:26:17,324 Speaker 3: They just make everything more expensive. I guess it is 511 00:26:17,364 --> 00:26:20,004 Speaker 3: a way to raise revenues, but a way to raise 512 00:26:20,044 --> 00:26:24,444 Speaker 3: revenues that destimulates the economy and is harmful for consumers 513 00:26:24,484 --> 00:26:26,524 Speaker 3: and but like, you know, both parties have moved a 514 00:26:26,524 --> 00:26:30,244 Speaker 3: little bit more toward protectionism and like another category two. 515 00:26:30,284 --> 00:26:35,004 Speaker 3: I mean, you know, subsidizing housing. Purchasing of housing is 516 00:26:35,044 --> 00:26:37,804 Speaker 3: also considered maybe not the best. Like housing does not 517 00:26:37,924 --> 00:26:40,964 Speaker 3: appreciate to the same extent that investment in the stock 518 00:26:41,004 --> 00:26:44,844 Speaker 3: market does, and people have this fetish I think sometimes 519 00:26:44,884 --> 00:26:50,404 Speaker 3: for home ownership that the government encourages. And maybe it's understandable. 520 00:26:50,444 --> 00:26:51,964 Speaker 3: I mean, but like, so you have a whole sweetened by 521 00:26:51,964 --> 00:26:53,764 Speaker 3: the way one last one. That's why I'm on my 522 00:26:53,764 --> 00:26:56,764 Speaker 3: little It's not really rant. It's pretty pretty low key mood. 523 00:26:58,204 --> 00:27:02,804 Speaker 3: The student loan relief policy that the Biden administration passed 524 00:27:02,884 --> 00:27:04,364 Speaker 3: was struck down by the courts, and they've tried to 525 00:27:04,364 --> 00:27:07,004 Speaker 3: piecemeal some of it back. I mean, that's pretty dubious 526 00:27:07,284 --> 00:27:10,764 Speaker 3: policy too. That creates moral hazard where now you spend 527 00:27:10,844 --> 00:27:13,564 Speaker 3: more because you think your debt might be forgiven later on. Right, 528 00:27:13,884 --> 00:27:17,484 Speaker 3: you know, why should why should college students? By the way, 529 00:27:17,524 --> 00:27:20,044 Speaker 3: most people who have student debt are like actually it's 530 00:27:20,044 --> 00:27:22,084 Speaker 3: often in graduate school, so it's often not poor college 531 00:27:22,084 --> 00:27:24,844 Speaker 3: students with people who are going to expensive medical schools, 532 00:27:24,924 --> 00:27:28,444 Speaker 3: law schools and are pretty well off. So why they 533 00:27:28,444 --> 00:27:30,284 Speaker 3: do it. Well, the answer is that most colleges can 534 00:27:30,324 --> 00:27:33,204 Speaker 3: people are Democrats. They're giving a solid to their party. 535 00:27:33,244 --> 00:27:35,764 Speaker 3: But like, that's another in the suite of policies that 536 00:27:35,804 --> 00:27:41,404 Speaker 3: are not considered economically optimal but are politically convenient or smart. Right, So, 537 00:27:41,644 --> 00:27:43,924 Speaker 3: how do you feel about all this stuff? Because you 538 00:27:43,924 --> 00:27:46,084 Speaker 3: are the one, Maria, the two of us, you openly 539 00:27:46,164 --> 00:27:50,044 Speaker 3: root for Democrats. I am planning of voting for Kamala Harris, right, 540 00:27:50,084 --> 00:27:52,244 Speaker 3: but I'm I'm you know, I would say not call 541 00:27:52,284 --> 00:27:53,724 Speaker 3: myself a partisan. But what do you think? Are you 542 00:27:53,764 --> 00:27:56,484 Speaker 3: okay with this? As someone who's both like a policy 543 00:27:56,884 --> 00:27:57,404 Speaker 3: and now, I. 544 00:27:57,404 --> 00:27:59,484 Speaker 1: Mean, I think that a lot of these policies are 545 00:27:59,484 --> 00:28:02,604 Speaker 1: actually quite bad. So let's just give a little bit 546 00:28:02,684 --> 00:28:05,724 Speaker 1: of you know, personal background in the sense that my 547 00:28:05,844 --> 00:28:09,964 Speaker 1: family grew up in the Soviet Union so many many generations, 548 00:28:10,484 --> 00:28:13,964 Speaker 1: and you know, I have an allergic reaction to a 549 00:28:14,004 --> 00:28:18,524 Speaker 1: lot of things that involve central planning, price controls, trying 550 00:28:18,564 --> 00:28:22,164 Speaker 1: to kind of create something where you say, this is 551 00:28:22,244 --> 00:28:29,404 Speaker 1: how much these things need to you know, how much 552 00:28:29,484 --> 00:28:30,644 Speaker 1: these things need to cost? 553 00:28:30,764 --> 00:28:30,924 Speaker 4: Right? 554 00:28:31,164 --> 00:28:34,364 Speaker 1: Where there was the end result was there was nothing. 555 00:28:34,924 --> 00:28:37,564 Speaker 1: You had to wait in horrible lines to get that nothing. 556 00:28:37,804 --> 00:28:41,084 Speaker 1: There was a huge black market. People who had like 557 00:28:41,324 --> 00:28:43,844 Speaker 1: ends with the party or with someone could get goods 558 00:28:43,844 --> 00:28:46,404 Speaker 1: that other people couldn't get. There was a lot of 559 00:28:46,404 --> 00:28:49,164 Speaker 1: trying to kind of skirt around it, and a lot 560 00:28:49,204 --> 00:28:51,524 Speaker 1: of people were just hungry and died of hunger. Right, 561 00:28:51,604 --> 00:28:55,844 Speaker 1: So it doesn't central planning in no way works well. 562 00:28:56,124 --> 00:28:58,604 Speaker 1: And I know I've gone to like an extreme right. 563 00:28:58,844 --> 00:29:01,324 Speaker 1: That's not what we were talking about, but I just 564 00:29:01,364 --> 00:29:04,244 Speaker 1: wanted to set the stage with kind of why I'm 565 00:29:04,284 --> 00:29:07,324 Speaker 1: allergic to some policies that smell of that in any 566 00:29:07,484 --> 00:29:10,604 Speaker 1: in any way we're talking about price controls. 567 00:29:11,604 --> 00:29:13,604 Speaker 2: I do think the fading of the memory of the 568 00:29:13,644 --> 00:29:14,524 Speaker 2: Soviet Union, right. 569 00:29:14,564 --> 00:29:18,604 Speaker 3: I mean, I'm forty six, so I can still remember 570 00:29:18,604 --> 00:29:20,604 Speaker 3: the Cold War, right, although it's a long time ago. 571 00:29:20,644 --> 00:29:22,924 Speaker 3: And if you're like thirty six, maybe you don't or younger, 572 00:29:24,084 --> 00:29:26,764 Speaker 3: you know that fading may increase support for certain types 573 00:29:26,804 --> 00:29:29,644 Speaker 3: of left wing economic policies. Oh again here it's like 574 00:29:29,724 --> 00:29:33,644 Speaker 3: not so much left wing, it's just inefficiently designed policies. 575 00:29:33,884 --> 00:29:40,244 Speaker 3: I'm actually I'm actually more forgiving as the nonpartisan pundit right, 576 00:29:41,324 --> 00:29:46,084 Speaker 3: in part because like I don't actually think that Democrats would. 577 00:29:45,844 --> 00:29:48,124 Speaker 2: Do very much of this stuff. Right. 578 00:29:48,204 --> 00:29:50,964 Speaker 3: Sure, they might have pretty narrow majorities, if they have 579 00:29:51,004 --> 00:29:54,244 Speaker 3: majorities at all in Congress. And you know, as much 580 00:29:54,284 --> 00:29:56,644 Speaker 3: as I can be skeptical of the expert class, sometimes 581 00:29:56,644 --> 00:29:59,924 Speaker 3: I do think that there's generally a higher caliber of 582 00:30:00,004 --> 00:30:03,204 Speaker 3: like policy wonks in the Democratic Party than the GUP. 583 00:30:03,324 --> 00:30:06,004 Speaker 3: Although again, you know, the Biden administration did do some 584 00:30:06,084 --> 00:30:08,164 Speaker 3: things that were you know, the student loan thing, I 585 00:30:08,204 --> 00:30:10,244 Speaker 3: think in certain ways is pretty and they did that, 586 00:30:10,684 --> 00:30:12,644 Speaker 3: and they spent a lot of money, more money than 587 00:30:12,724 --> 00:30:15,804 Speaker 3: some economists thought they should spend. Trump stood a lot 588 00:30:15,804 --> 00:30:17,284 Speaker 3: of money too, by the way, So it's kind of 589 00:30:17,284 --> 00:30:21,444 Speaker 3: bipartisan blame for inflation. So maybe I'm talking to myself 590 00:30:21,444 --> 00:30:23,084 Speaker 3: into being more worried about it. Maybe I think that 591 00:30:23,124 --> 00:30:26,884 Speaker 3: actually too many Democrats drink the kool aid and actually 592 00:30:26,924 --> 00:30:29,284 Speaker 3: could do some dumb stuff. 593 00:30:29,284 --> 00:30:29,764 Speaker 2: But at the. 594 00:30:29,804 --> 00:30:33,244 Speaker 3: Same time, like from a strictly campaigning decision, like I 595 00:30:33,284 --> 00:30:38,284 Speaker 3: don't think the annoyed huff huff calls from like neoliberal 596 00:30:38,284 --> 00:30:42,884 Speaker 3: economists is going to hurt her electorally speaking all that much. Right, 597 00:30:42,964 --> 00:30:45,084 Speaker 3: And you're you're trying Trump does lots of things that 598 00:30:45,124 --> 00:30:48,644 Speaker 3: are pandering. Also, I mean, who knows what Trump actually 599 00:30:48,644 --> 00:30:52,364 Speaker 3: believes deep down, so I'm not that bothered by it. 600 00:30:52,404 --> 00:30:56,924 Speaker 1: I guess what about the no tips no tip tax, 601 00:30:57,284 --> 00:31:00,604 Speaker 1: because you know, I actually think that you made a 602 00:31:00,724 --> 00:31:05,284 Speaker 1: very good point where it does create an opportunity to 603 00:31:05,364 --> 00:31:09,204 Speaker 1: classify a lot of things as tips, especially for people 604 00:31:09,724 --> 00:31:12,364 Speaker 1: like you and me who are freelancers, right who piece 605 00:31:12,404 --> 00:31:17,244 Speaker 1: together are income from you know, speaking and writing and 606 00:31:17,684 --> 00:31:21,004 Speaker 1: you know and substack and podcasting and all of these things. 607 00:31:21,044 --> 00:31:23,684 Speaker 1: You know, what if we reclassify some of that as 608 00:31:23,924 --> 00:31:26,484 Speaker 1: you know, well, my real fee for giving a talk 609 00:31:26,804 --> 00:31:29,884 Speaker 1: is you know, one hundred dollars and then I take 610 00:31:30,004 --> 00:31:32,964 Speaker 1: you know, a thousand dollars tip on that, right. 611 00:31:33,444 --> 00:31:34,764 Speaker 2: Yeah. 612 00:31:35,164 --> 00:31:39,084 Speaker 3: I literally used to work in tax law. I was 613 00:31:39,084 --> 00:31:43,484 Speaker 3: a consultant for KPMG in something primarily called the transfer 614 00:31:43,524 --> 00:31:47,764 Speaker 3: pricing UH protocol or not protocol, the transfer prising practice. 615 00:31:48,244 --> 00:31:51,364 Speaker 3: Transfer pricing is extremely boring. Is what happens when the 616 00:31:51,404 --> 00:31:56,804 Speaker 3: company has like multiple worldwide entities like Motorola is manufacturing 617 00:31:57,164 --> 00:32:01,564 Speaker 3: cell phones and Singapore and they get semiconductor chips from Taiwan. 618 00:32:02,284 --> 00:32:05,404 Speaker 3: How do you divide the profit up between Taiwan and Singapore? 619 00:32:05,564 --> 00:32:07,164 Speaker 2: Basically extremely boring. 620 00:32:07,284 --> 00:32:10,044 Speaker 3: That's why I was deadly bored and starf playing poker 621 00:32:10,044 --> 00:32:11,844 Speaker 3: and lots of other things that weren't as healthy as poker. 622 00:32:11,924 --> 00:32:17,244 Speaker 3: And but like you know, if you create eccentricities in 623 00:32:17,284 --> 00:32:20,884 Speaker 3: the tax code, then you'll have billions of dollars in 624 00:32:20,924 --> 00:32:23,644 Speaker 3: industry trying to figure out how to exploit those loopholes. 625 00:32:23,684 --> 00:32:25,604 Speaker 3: Maybe you get away for a year or so without it, 626 00:32:26,564 --> 00:32:29,364 Speaker 3: but like every loophole will be exploited. And believe me, 627 00:32:29,444 --> 00:32:31,444 Speaker 3: if there is some way to structure my incomes that 628 00:32:31,444 --> 00:32:35,324 Speaker 3: I pay less taxes by calling substack subscriptions a tip, 629 00:32:35,404 --> 00:32:38,044 Speaker 3: then I will do it. I have no moral qualms about, 630 00:32:38,804 --> 00:32:41,124 Speaker 3: you know, working my way around a badly designed policy. 631 00:32:41,804 --> 00:32:45,324 Speaker 1: Sure, and sometimes when you have rules, they they actually 632 00:32:46,044 --> 00:32:51,644 Speaker 1: just end up reinforcing things that already you know people basically, 633 00:32:51,644 --> 00:32:53,324 Speaker 1: the people who know how to get around them are 634 00:32:53,364 --> 00:32:55,404 Speaker 1: the people who are going to profit the most. Because 635 00:32:55,404 --> 00:32:58,244 Speaker 1: if you think about even tips right now, how many 636 00:32:58,284 --> 00:33:02,004 Speaker 1: service workers report one of their cash tips and then 637 00:33:02,084 --> 00:33:06,364 Speaker 1: pay taxes on them already right in the current status quo. 638 00:33:07,404 --> 00:33:09,604 Speaker 1: So so just think about that, right and then and 639 00:33:09,604 --> 00:33:12,404 Speaker 1: then think about kind of what we do by creating 640 00:33:12,444 --> 00:33:16,044 Speaker 1: these new potential loopholes where now you have more people 641 00:33:16,044 --> 00:33:18,924 Speaker 1: who are willing to skirt them in different ways. I'll 642 00:33:18,964 --> 00:33:20,804 Speaker 1: be curious to see what ends up happening with these 643 00:33:20,804 --> 00:33:26,204 Speaker 1: policies in reality, if Kamala Harris does get elected, We're. 644 00:33:26,084 --> 00:33:27,644 Speaker 3: Going to take another short break and then have a 645 00:33:27,724 --> 00:33:29,924 Speaker 3: quick wrap up about what we're looking for at the DNC. 646 00:33:44,204 --> 00:33:47,404 Speaker 1: Any personal updates in terms of in terms of what 647 00:33:47,764 --> 00:33:50,564 Speaker 1: you're doing right now. I'm about to leave for Spain, 648 00:33:51,324 --> 00:33:54,484 Speaker 1: where I have a many vacation, and then we'll be 649 00:33:54,564 --> 00:33:57,524 Speaker 1: playing in the European Poker Tour, so we're going to 650 00:33:57,564 --> 00:34:02,564 Speaker 1: have some more some more poker related possibilities. I hope 651 00:34:02,564 --> 00:34:05,444 Speaker 1: that I will run better in Spain than I did 652 00:34:05,564 --> 00:34:06,524 Speaker 1: at the World Series. 653 00:34:07,484 --> 00:34:07,964 Speaker 2: We haven't. 654 00:34:08,004 --> 00:34:13,964 Speaker 1: We never actually presented our listeners with the full results 655 00:34:13,524 --> 00:34:17,564 Speaker 1: of our bet. But I did not run well as 656 00:34:17,564 --> 00:34:18,164 Speaker 1: we as we all. 657 00:34:18,324 --> 00:34:19,484 Speaker 2: I don't remember well out of Maria. 658 00:34:19,604 --> 00:34:21,604 Speaker 3: I think I'm a little overconfident in that I don't 659 00:34:21,604 --> 00:34:23,924 Speaker 3: know I and yeah, by the end, it was just 660 00:34:24,484 --> 00:34:26,884 Speaker 3: campaign crush, right, I was kind of all on a 661 00:34:26,924 --> 00:34:29,484 Speaker 3: Google document somewhere. Well, I don't know, we'll figure out. 662 00:34:29,524 --> 00:34:31,724 Speaker 3: We'll reconcile it at some point, Yeah, we will. I'm 663 00:34:31,724 --> 00:34:35,404 Speaker 3: here in Chicago now, By the way, there are concerns 664 00:34:35,404 --> 00:34:38,684 Speaker 3: about are you going to have you know, pro Palestine 665 00:34:38,764 --> 00:34:41,244 Speaker 3: or other protests or things like that. There's a big 666 00:34:41,284 --> 00:34:43,244 Speaker 3: police presence here. I mean I was walking around last 667 00:34:43,324 --> 00:34:46,444 Speaker 3: night and you see like squads of like six police officer. 668 00:34:46,404 --> 00:34:48,524 Speaker 3: They're friendly and they don't like menacing or anything like that. Right, 669 00:34:48,524 --> 00:34:52,084 Speaker 3: But but you know, it's a democratic run city in 670 00:34:52,124 --> 00:34:55,164 Speaker 3: a democratic run state, and Democrats want to put out 671 00:34:55,204 --> 00:34:59,964 Speaker 3: a good show. And you know, unlike in twenty I 672 00:34:59,964 --> 00:35:03,924 Speaker 3: don't think you have as much kind of police tension 673 00:35:03,924 --> 00:35:06,124 Speaker 3: as you had with the old mayor Lloyd Lightfoot in Chicago. 674 00:35:06,364 --> 00:35:10,444 Speaker 3: So I would be mildly surprised if there are protests 675 00:35:10,484 --> 00:35:12,124 Speaker 3: that get two out of hand. Of course, Chicago has 676 00:35:12,124 --> 00:35:16,044 Speaker 3: a reputation for violence at the convention, you know. I 677 00:35:17,404 --> 00:35:20,604 Speaker 3: so Harris's speech is on Thursday night after you're here. This, 678 00:35:20,644 --> 00:35:25,164 Speaker 3: by the way, the fact they're putting Biden and Hillary 679 00:35:25,164 --> 00:35:28,644 Speaker 3: Clinton and Kathy hokel. You know, the game like Chinese poker. 680 00:35:28,644 --> 00:35:32,564 Speaker 3: They're basically various poker games where you're dealt some large 681 00:35:32,644 --> 00:35:35,644 Speaker 3: number of cards, like eleven cards or thirteen cards, and 682 00:35:35,684 --> 00:35:38,604 Speaker 3: you have to divide them into two or three hands, Right, Yeah, 683 00:35:38,644 --> 00:35:41,164 Speaker 3: basically Chinese poker, sometimes you have to take all your 684 00:35:41,244 --> 00:35:44,844 Speaker 3: shit and put it in one hand and guarantee that 685 00:35:44,884 --> 00:35:46,764 Speaker 3: hand will lose to maximize. 686 00:35:46,364 --> 00:35:47,604 Speaker 2: Your chances of winning the other hands. 687 00:35:47,644 --> 00:35:50,724 Speaker 3: Right, They've got to taking all their fucking shit. Kathy Okele, 688 00:35:51,364 --> 00:35:53,724 Speaker 3: thirty eight percent of people riding Joe Biden, Hillary fucking 689 00:35:53,724 --> 00:35:56,244 Speaker 3: Clinton putting it on Monday night, they probably hope there's 690 00:35:56,284 --> 00:35:58,524 Speaker 3: gonna be some giant internet outage or something on Monday, 691 00:35:58,564 --> 00:36:02,164 Speaker 3: and then having three pretty good nights for the convention. Murray, 692 00:36:02,204 --> 00:36:04,444 Speaker 3: Actually you're having we're both having internet issues. That might 693 00:36:04,484 --> 00:36:07,764 Speaker 3: be the slow burned Democrat strategy to make sure that 694 00:36:07,804 --> 00:36:10,084 Speaker 3: nobody watches Joe Biden's speech to night or whatever. But 695 00:36:10,364 --> 00:36:13,324 Speaker 3: they will have compelling days of programming Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. 696 00:36:13,564 --> 00:36:16,884 Speaker 3: You know, I think Harris has to resist the temptation 697 00:36:17,084 --> 00:36:20,564 Speaker 3: to be to be too cautious and too triangulating. I think, 698 00:36:20,884 --> 00:36:23,204 Speaker 3: you know, if she acts like she has an eighty 699 00:36:23,244 --> 00:36:25,684 Speaker 3: percent chance of winning instead of fifty three percent or whatever, 700 00:36:26,044 --> 00:36:27,484 Speaker 3: that might be a mistake. And by the way, we 701 00:36:27,484 --> 00:36:29,884 Speaker 3: haven't talked about it much in this program recently. But 702 00:36:29,924 --> 00:36:32,724 Speaker 3: of course Trump overperformed his polls in twenty sixteen and 703 00:36:32,764 --> 00:36:35,284 Speaker 3: twenty twenty, so I think she is a better candate 704 00:36:35,284 --> 00:36:37,164 Speaker 3: when she's running like she's three points down and not 705 00:36:37,204 --> 00:36:38,004 Speaker 3: three points ahead. 706 00:36:38,044 --> 00:36:42,084 Speaker 2: So I'll be I'll be watching that. What are you 707 00:36:42,084 --> 00:36:43,444 Speaker 2: gonna be like, are you gonna be watching? I might? 708 00:36:43,564 --> 00:36:47,164 Speaker 3: I mean I'm doing some book tour event in Seattle 709 00:36:47,244 --> 00:36:48,644 Speaker 3: or something, so I'm not sure I'm actually gonna be 710 00:36:48,644 --> 00:36:50,164 Speaker 3: watching it live, but I will have a little bit 711 00:36:50,204 --> 00:36:53,524 Speaker 3: of plenty of rescue business and silver bulletin content. 712 00:36:53,964 --> 00:36:57,604 Speaker 1: Absolutely absolutely I will try to watch live. I'm gonna 713 00:36:57,604 --> 00:37:00,524 Speaker 1: be in Europe, so the timing might be difficult for 714 00:37:00,564 --> 00:37:03,204 Speaker 1: me to watch live, but I plan on catching up. 715 00:37:03,484 --> 00:37:06,084 Speaker 1: And I actually also think it's very funny when you 716 00:37:06,124 --> 00:37:07,844 Speaker 1: don't see some of these things live to see what 717 00:37:07,884 --> 00:37:10,124 Speaker 1: the reaction is, because I sure I'm going to see 718 00:37:10,124 --> 00:37:12,204 Speaker 1: it on my Twitter feed when I opened my phone 719 00:37:12,244 --> 00:37:16,524 Speaker 1: before before I actually watch it, So it'll be it'll 720 00:37:16,524 --> 00:37:19,164 Speaker 1: be interesting to see what those what those moments are, right, 721 00:37:19,204 --> 00:37:22,564 Speaker 1: what those me moments are, what those kind of little 722 00:37:22,644 --> 00:37:28,684 Speaker 1: nuggets that get that get exerted look like, as opposed 723 00:37:28,724 --> 00:37:31,484 Speaker 1: to the impression of watching the real thing. Because it's 724 00:37:31,484 --> 00:37:35,284 Speaker 1: funny when we when we were talking about the debates, 725 00:37:35,364 --> 00:37:37,924 Speaker 1: right that that first absolutely train wreck of a debate 726 00:37:38,004 --> 00:37:42,044 Speaker 1: with Biden and Trump. The impressions were very different from 727 00:37:42,044 --> 00:37:44,604 Speaker 1: people who watched the whole thing versus people who'd just 728 00:37:44,604 --> 00:37:47,044 Speaker 1: seen clips, versus people who turned it on and off 729 00:37:47,084 --> 00:37:50,604 Speaker 1: at different times. And I think that that's actually that 730 00:37:50,604 --> 00:37:52,804 Speaker 1: that tells you something very interesting too, And I'll be 731 00:37:52,844 --> 00:37:53,524 Speaker 1: curious to see that. 732 00:37:55,284 --> 00:37:56,724 Speaker 3: We both have a busy day ahead, so I think 733 00:37:56,724 --> 00:37:59,204 Speaker 3: we're going to leave it at that. Thank you for listening, 734 00:37:59,204 --> 00:38:01,084 Speaker 3: and tune in next time, and. 735 00:38:01,004 --> 00:38:02,324 Speaker 1: Good luck with the rest of your book. 736 00:38:02,364 --> 00:38:20,084 Speaker 3: Tourning Risky Business is hosted by me Nate Silber and 737 00:38:20,204 --> 00:38:22,884 Speaker 3: me Maria Kanakova. The show was a co production of 738 00:38:22,924 --> 00:38:27,524 Speaker 3: Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced by Isabel Carter. 739 00:38:28,044 --> 00:38:31,884 Speaker 3: Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Cheen. Our engineer is 740 00:38:31,924 --> 00:38:35,124 Speaker 3: Sarah Bruger. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. 741 00:38:35,764 --> 00:38:37,524 Speaker 1: If you want to listen to an ad free version, 742 00:38:37,604 --> 00:38:40,284 Speaker 1: sign up for Pushkin Plus. For six ninety nine a month. 743 00:38:40,364 --> 00:38:43,324 Speaker 1: You get access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in. 744 00:38:51,444 --> 00:38:53,644 Speaker 3: By the way, we think our listeners are pretty attentive. 745 00:38:53,724 --> 00:38:56,604 Speaker 3: The detailed level of feedback positive and negative. We get 746 00:38:56,764 --> 00:38:59,204 Speaker 3: reveals that if you were being attentive earlier, you might 747 00:38:59,204 --> 00:39:02,444 Speaker 3: have heard a reference to a Gerald Ford comment about 748 00:39:02,444 --> 00:39:04,724 Speaker 3: women ascending to the presidency. We're going to just play 749 00:39:04,724 --> 00:39:06,284 Speaker 3: the clip for you as a little easter egg here 750 00:39:06,444 --> 00:39:08,244 Speaker 3: as naudro see you next week. 751 00:39:09,404 --> 00:39:12,804 Speaker 5: I hope we do have a young lady at some 752 00:39:13,004 --> 00:39:20,084 Speaker 5: point become president of the United States. I can tell 753 00:39:20,084 --> 00:39:25,364 Speaker 5: you how I think it will happen, because it won't 754 00:39:25,484 --> 00:39:33,884 Speaker 5: happen in the normal course of events. Either the Republican 755 00:39:34,124 --> 00:39:39,324 Speaker 5: or Democrat political party will nominate a man for president 756 00:39:39,604 --> 00:39:43,524 Speaker 5: and a woman for vice president, and the woman and 757 00:39:43,764 --> 00:39:49,364 Speaker 5: man will win. So you'll end up with president a 758 00:39:49,484 --> 00:39:53,244 Speaker 5: male and a vice president a female, and in that 759 00:39:53,644 --> 00:39:58,924 Speaker 5: term of office of the president, the president will die 760 00:39:59,364 --> 00:40:03,724 Speaker 5: and the woman will become president under the law or constitution. 761 00:40:04,564 --> 00:40:09,324 Speaker 5: And once that barrier is broken, from then on, man 762 00:40:09,604 --> 00:40:15,724 Speaker 5: better be careful because they'll have a hard hard time 763 00:40:16,204 --> 00:40:20,644 Speaker 5: ever even getting a nomination in the future. But that's 764 00:40:20,684 --> 00:40:24,124 Speaker 5: the way it's going to happen, and I think it'll 765 00:40:24,164 --> 00:40:30,804 Speaker 5: probably come sometime in the next four or eight years.