1
00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:04,240
Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast Action.

2
00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:11,840
Speaker 2: All right, here we go from throwing out so spect

3
00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:13,560
Speaker 2: we're sitting.

4
00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:15,080
Speaker 3: It's a cash touchdown.

5
00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,599
Speaker 1: We'll see most gamble is when they go to gamble,

6
00:00:18,760 --> 00:00:19,360
Speaker 1: they go to win.

7
00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,720
Speaker 3: That's incredible.

8
00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:24,759
Speaker 2: Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

9
00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,040
Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate combine.

10
00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:30,440
Speaker 2: If you want to.

11
00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:32,760
Speaker 3: And we are under way.

12
00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:35,919
Speaker 4: Well, what's up everybody?

13
00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:38,840
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Every podcast presented by Draft Kings.

14
00:00:38,920 --> 00:00:41,479
Speaker 2: I am your host, Evan Abrams, and I am joined

15
00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:45,279
Speaker 2: by Brandon Anderson for our NFL recap show. We will

16
00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:48,640
Speaker 2: discuss everything we saw today and look ahead briefly to

17
00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:52,360
Speaker 2: Monday nights game. Plus we'll get Brandon's hot read for

18
00:00:52,880 --> 00:00:56,760
Speaker 2: next week's actions to get ahead on all of those lines. Now,

19
00:00:56,960 --> 00:00:58,720
Speaker 2: before we get started, I'm just gonna give you my

20
00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:01,640
Speaker 2: one big stat of the day to me, I thought

21
00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:04,520
Speaker 2: this was actually pretty interesting, and I'll get Brandon's thoughts

22
00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:06,160
Speaker 2: on it right as we finish.

23
00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:07,200
Speaker 4: But how's this So?

24
00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:10,399
Speaker 2: The twenty twenty five Broncos are now the seventh team

25
00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:13,839
Speaker 2: to have a win percentage of eighty percent or higher

26
00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,640
Speaker 2: and be under five hundred in their twelfth game or later.

27
00:01:18,200 --> 00:01:22,040
Speaker 2: Twenty five Broncos twenty four Chiefs. Now in twenty twenty

28
00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:26,280
Speaker 2: two we had the Chiefs, Vikings, Bills and Eagles do this,

29
00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:29,560
Speaker 2: and in twenty twenty we had the Chiefs. So Chiefs

30
00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:31,880
Speaker 2: have now done it three times, Broncos this year. The

31
00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:36,119
Speaker 2: thing that's interesting is obviously very high win percentage under

32
00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:38,800
Speaker 2: five hundreds, are not covering something I feel like we've

33
00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:42,280
Speaker 2: seen more of recently. Well how about this since that?

34
00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:45,440
Speaker 2: So since what was it I said, twelfth game or later?

35
00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:49,279
Speaker 2: Since twenty twenty, So since twenty twenty, we've had seven

36
00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:52,960
Speaker 2: of those teams. Between two thousand and twenty nineteen we

37
00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:57,520
Speaker 2: only had six. So what I'm thinking is very recently

38
00:01:57,800 --> 00:02:03,120
Speaker 2: inflated spreads, Really teams getting inflated spreads after wins, lots

39
00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:06,080
Speaker 2: more public money, lots more things of that nature. But Brendon,

40
00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:09,040
Speaker 2: what do you think about that? So basically four five,

41
00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:14,639
Speaker 2: five seasons, you've got seven teams really high win percentage,

42
00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,840
Speaker 2: someone like the Chiefs this year, the Broncos just simply

43
00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:19,000
Speaker 2: not covering games.

44
00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:22,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, we're just we're getting really high spreads.

45
00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,320
Speaker 3: And I think also, you know, this is certainly the

46
00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:29,360
Speaker 3: window you're referencing, I think is very much the window

47
00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:32,359
Speaker 3: of betting exploding across the nation to a much more

48
00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:36,520
Speaker 3: public area as well. So we know that sharps tend

49
00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:39,680
Speaker 3: to bet underdogs and public tends to bet favorites, especially

50
00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:43,600
Speaker 3: the big heavy favorites more often. So it's maybe that

51
00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:46,560
Speaker 3: maybe there's some inflation there of just like, well, we're

52
00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:49,440
Speaker 3: gonna get that money anyway. So's if we think it's ten,

53
00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:51,600
Speaker 3: let's make it twelve, let's make it thirteen, and we're

54
00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:55,840
Speaker 3: gonna get that money. You know, it's hard. I think

55
00:02:56,320 --> 00:03:00,240
Speaker 3: most of us betting and watching listening right now have

56
00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:02,720
Speaker 3: a pretty good feel for like, oh, it's minus three

57
00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:04,919
Speaker 3: or it's two or four, those matter, Like I get

58
00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:07,560
Speaker 3: the difference of that, or six or seven that matters.

59
00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:12,000
Speaker 3: Once it gets past seven, it's really esoteric of like, well,

60
00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,760
Speaker 3: what's the difference between eight and ten? Really, like how

61
00:03:14,800 --> 00:03:16,560
Speaker 3: often is that going to matter? And how about ten

62
00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,960
Speaker 3: to thirteen? And so I think there's that part of it,

63
00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:23,720
Speaker 3: and more and more too. We see teams being aggressive

64
00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:26,280
Speaker 3: in those spots. We see teams going for two, and

65
00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:28,240
Speaker 3: it's kind of throwing off the spreads and some of

66
00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:32,520
Speaker 3: those things as well. We had today two games that

67
00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:35,360
Speaker 3: sat at five and a half all week long, and

68
00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:37,840
Speaker 3: I think closed at five and a half, and then

69
00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,520
Speaker 3: we're sitting on five for much of the game near

70
00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:42,560
Speaker 3: the end, and looked like that was going to be

71
00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:45,240
Speaker 3: in play, and it used to be five and a

72
00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:47,840
Speaker 3: half was just no man's land. That just wasn't the

73
00:03:47,920 --> 00:03:50,200
Speaker 3: number that mattered at all. So I think there's a

74
00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:52,640
Speaker 3: lot of those factors in play. I will say this,

75
00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:56,600
Speaker 3: comparing Denver this year to the Chiefs last year, it

76
00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:58,720
Speaker 3: is a great way to piss off both fan bases

77
00:03:58,760 --> 00:03:59,800
Speaker 3: at once. So I'm here for that.

78
00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:03,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, that is actually very true because both of

79
00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:05,600
Speaker 2: them hate each other and no one would ever want it,

80
00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:07,760
Speaker 2: would admit that they were anything like the other team.

81
00:04:08,040 --> 00:04:11,800
Speaker 2: I've heard some twenty twenty two vikings. I've heard different things,

82
00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:16,600
Speaker 2: but let's move on now. So Sunday Night football Lions Eagles,

83
00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:19,960
Speaker 2: Eagles end up winning the game sixteen to nine, cover

84
00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:22,440
Speaker 2: minus two and a half, total goes under forty six.

85
00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:25,640
Speaker 2: I'm kind of gonna let you take this one because

86
00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:29,560
Speaker 2: I felt like from the start, we all saw the

87
00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:33,320
Speaker 2: win factor in this one. We all saw outdoors, we

88
00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:36,200
Speaker 2: saw a really good defense with Philadelphia, and then basically

89
00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:38,680
Speaker 2: we saw goff really struggle this one. I think by

90
00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:40,320
Speaker 2: the time I just looked at the box score, there

91
00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:42,520
Speaker 2: was like twenty three incompletions in the game.

92
00:04:42,839 --> 00:04:45,680
Speaker 4: He just never felt right. And Detroit's offense.

93
00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:48,200
Speaker 2: Obviously putting up only nine points for what it's done

94
00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:50,720
Speaker 2: in the past, really went nowhere in this one, and

95
00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:52,080
Speaker 2: even only down.

96
00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,000
Speaker 4: Ten points, seven points.

97
00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:56,120
Speaker 2: Most of the game never felt like they were in

98
00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:58,400
Speaker 2: it because they never put drives together.

99
00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:00,640
Speaker 4: But what do you take from this game tonight and

100
00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:01,280
Speaker 4: going forward?

101
00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:05,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, someone that bet Detroit and let's be real, I'm

102
00:05:05,360 --> 00:05:08,400
Speaker 3: gonna have some victory lapping on this podcast, but let's

103
00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:11,560
Speaker 3: start with betting golf for MVP, because that is not

104
00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:14,960
Speaker 3: one of them. And yeah, you know, sometimes you put

105
00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:17,760
Speaker 3: your bet in and the game starts and then like

106
00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:20,040
Speaker 3: the camera pans over to the coach on the sideline

107
00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:22,000
Speaker 3: and you just get that sinking feeling like, oh, no,

108
00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:25,120
Speaker 3: I forgot that's what I was betting on today. This

109
00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:28,560
Speaker 3: was me tonight. As the game starts, Goff throws that

110
00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:32,120
Speaker 3: awful interception early that you know, credit Detroit only held

111
00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:35,480
Speaker 3: them to a field goal defensively, but you just see,

112
00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:38,640
Speaker 3: like Jared Goff in the cold, in the wind, throwing

113
00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:41,080
Speaker 3: that pick and you're like, oh, no, what have I done?

114
00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:45,159
Speaker 3: Jared Goff outdoors? We knew, we knew, and it just yeah,

115
00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:50,239
Speaker 3: fourteen of thirty seven on the night minus thirty completion

116
00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:54,520
Speaker 3: of were expected minus thirty. That's like basically, every time

117
00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:58,400
Speaker 3: you throw three passes, one more than should have been completed,

118
00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:00,919
Speaker 3: ends up falling incomplete. And it kind of felt like

119
00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:04,840
Speaker 3: that all night long. And yeah, it was not great,

120
00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:08,719
Speaker 3: I think beyond Goff, he certainly was not good. But

121
00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:10,560
Speaker 3: to me, the story of the game has to be

122
00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:14,720
Speaker 3: all the fourth downs, just constantly Detroit going for it.

123
00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:17,239
Speaker 3: And I don't know, I don't know if I agree

124
00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:19,000
Speaker 3: with you that it never fail like Detroit was in

125
00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:21,160
Speaker 3: it because it never really felt like Philadelphia could put

126
00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:23,720
Speaker 3: them away either, and it was still right there. And

127
00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:27,839
Speaker 3: even if Detroit converts one of those fourth downs, I

128
00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:29,920
Speaker 3: think the whole thing changes a little bit. But they

129
00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:32,960
Speaker 3: went zero five on fourth down today. They turned it

130
00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:37,479
Speaker 3: over inside their own territory twice around midfield. They turned

131
00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:40,039
Speaker 3: it over down on the three yard line once and

132
00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:42,880
Speaker 3: did get points out of it. They started the second

133
00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:46,280
Speaker 3: half turnover and downs, turnover and downs, turnover and downs,

134
00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:49,400
Speaker 3: three drives in a row coming out of the second quarter,

135
00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:53,520
Speaker 3: where two of those three dive drives were turnovers on down,

136
00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:56,600
Speaker 3: So five of six drives not counting a nil down

137
00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:59,560
Speaker 3: to and the half five of six drives fourth down

138
00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:02,080
Speaker 3: they go for it, they don't get it. If you

139
00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:05,120
Speaker 3: add all that up on late downs, that eighteen third

140
00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:08,920
Speaker 3: or fourth down plays this game seventeen percent success rate,

141
00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:11,600
Speaker 3: So that means they were successful on three out of

142
00:07:11,600 --> 00:07:15,920
Speaker 3: those eighteen plays for minus twenty one EPA. EPA is

143
00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:17,920
Speaker 3: how many points are adding, So in a game that

144
00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:22,240
Speaker 3: was sixteen to nine, the Lions lost twenty one points

145
00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:24,760
Speaker 3: on third and fourth down. That's how bad it was.

146
00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:28,360
Speaker 3: Basically every time they turn it over on fourth down

147
00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:30,760
Speaker 3: is kind of like losing a field goal of value

148
00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,920
Speaker 3: by EPA. And the Goff interception was a minus six,

149
00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:38,000
Speaker 3: So all that adds up to to me, I feel

150
00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:41,240
Speaker 3: like this was not Philadelphia winning this game, kind of

151
00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:44,520
Speaker 3: like against Green Bay. This was Philadelphia being good enough

152
00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:47,840
Speaker 3: and letting the opponent loose, and they did, and that's that.

153
00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:51,280
Speaker 3: You get the W either way. But I didn't really

154
00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:54,600
Speaker 3: see certainly offensively and see anything the Eagles did that

155
00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:57,840
Speaker 3: impressed me at all. Eagles defense does continue to improve

156
00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:02,000
Speaker 3: and impressed Jalen Phillips. Definitely real addition a chess piece there,

157
00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:05,360
Speaker 3: But I don't know. The Lions did move the ball some.

158
00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:07,480
Speaker 3: They just needed to get one or two of those

159
00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:09,800
Speaker 3: fourth downs, and I think it's a different version and

160
00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,440
Speaker 3: it's never got one. And when you're gonna be aggressive,

161
00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:15,120
Speaker 3: I think sometimes you live with it, and I kind

162
00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:17,320
Speaker 3: of think Dan Campbell will live with us. You want

163
00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:20,040
Speaker 3: better execution for your quarterback, but you're gonna go for

164
00:08:20,080 --> 00:08:22,520
Speaker 3: those fourth downs and live with the results sometimes.

165
00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:23,400
Speaker 4: Yeah.

166
00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:25,480
Speaker 2: There was also some injuries on the Philly side, right

167
00:08:25,520 --> 00:08:28,800
Speaker 2: on the offensive line. I believe Dickerson went down. What

168
00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:30,880
Speaker 2: else did I miss? I think it wasn't Jurgen hurt

169
00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:31,440
Speaker 2: or something like that.

170
00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:34,880
Speaker 3: Layne Johnson went out for like around Haffan didn't return,

171
00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:36,959
Speaker 3: and Jurgens went out near the end of the game.

172
00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:39,760
Speaker 3: I think earlier this week four of their five linemen,

173
00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:41,800
Speaker 3: so those are all offensive linemen, and four of the

174
00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:43,640
Speaker 3: five were on the injury report earlier in the week.

175
00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:47,560
Speaker 3: So definitely these are teams that, like last year, we

176
00:08:47,600 --> 00:08:50,240
Speaker 3: know I do my offensive line rankings. These were the

177
00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:53,160
Speaker 3: gold star teams one in two in whatever order. And

178
00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:56,840
Speaker 3: I thought both lines were really lacking tonight, Like, I guess,

179
00:08:56,960 --> 00:08:59,040
Speaker 3: how do we now lead with Detroit stopped the tush

180
00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:01,520
Speaker 3: push like three times down the stretch. This should be

181
00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:04,280
Speaker 3: like the story of the NFL. And on the other side,

182
00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:08,800
Speaker 3: Detroit's once invincible offensive line is giving up pressure constantly now.

183
00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:11,480
Speaker 3: He sat against Minnesota and that game we saw it

184
00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,200
Speaker 3: again here. That was part of the goth problem. He

185
00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:16,680
Speaker 3: wants to be on time like anyone does, but he

186
00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:20,240
Speaker 3: especially does so. Yeah, the line injuries and the line

187
00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,600
Speaker 3: to play, these are much closer to average offensive lines

188
00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:27,160
Speaker 3: now compared to the gold star of the league. So

189
00:09:27,640 --> 00:09:29,720
Speaker 3: that's kind of taking away from what both these teams

190
00:09:29,800 --> 00:09:30,760
Speaker 3: want their identity to be.

191
00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:33,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I guess I mean you mentioned it, but

192
00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,040
Speaker 2: when has Philly ever looked good in a win or

193
00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:39,360
Speaker 2: put a team away. It just doesn't seem like something

194
00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:40,920
Speaker 2: that they do week to week. So I feel like

195
00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:43,360
Speaker 2: even when they win, even when they lose, you kind

196
00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:45,720
Speaker 2: of have the same recipe of what you say about them,

197
00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:49,240
Speaker 2: and it really doesn't matter because they don't do anything different. Anyway,

198
00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:53,160
Speaker 2: I will say this, you made the point kind of

199
00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:55,800
Speaker 2: that Detroit was in this game, not in this game.

200
00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:58,800
Speaker 2: I mean, you score nine points, you go three of

201
00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:01,680
Speaker 2: eighteen third down and fourth down, like you had plenty

202
00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:04,760
Speaker 2: of opportunities, you were there the entire time, but it

203
00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:07,880
Speaker 2: just had that odd feeling that, you know, Philly's defense

204
00:10:07,960 --> 00:10:10,160
Speaker 2: was never gonna let them through. And that's why at

205
00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:13,520
Speaker 2: the end, you know, why not punt versus go for it?

206
00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:16,760
Speaker 2: Like they've shown you nothing the entire night to make

207
00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:18,360
Speaker 2: you believe that Detroit was going to go all the

208
00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:21,960
Speaker 2: way down the field. So interesting decisions. Nonetheless, I mean, yeah,

209
00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:24,840
Speaker 2: oh for six on fourth down between the two teams,

210
00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:28,920
Speaker 2: so not your best play out there, but you're ready

211
00:10:28,920 --> 00:10:29,600
Speaker 2: to keep going here.

212
00:10:29,960 --> 00:10:32,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, interesting that Philly didn't go on fourth down the

213
00:10:32,720 --> 00:10:35,240
Speaker 3: whole game. They actually gave up a couple times where

214
00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:38,240
Speaker 3: they'd usually do a tush push and got conservative, which

215
00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:40,520
Speaker 3: I think did show a bit of a lack of

216
00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:43,400
Speaker 3: belief in their offense, but also a belief in their

217
00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:45,360
Speaker 3: defense that they hadn't really had earlier in the year.

218
00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:47,720
Speaker 3: That they were only zero for one of that for six,

219
00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:49,480
Speaker 3: And yeah, it was that bizarre one late where it

220
00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:52,200
Speaker 3: was like there's like three minutes left, the game is over.

221
00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:56,240
Speaker 3: If you just punt and defend here, and look, we

222
00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:58,559
Speaker 3: should have had a real shot at ending and Detroit

223
00:10:58,559 --> 00:11:03,680
Speaker 3: probably wasn't gonna go down and score time. Oh call horrendous,

224
00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:06,600
Speaker 3: Like I don't know what they're seeing on that. And

225
00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:08,640
Speaker 3: Detroit would have had a real shot with like two

226
00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:12,079
Speaker 3: minutes left in a timeout or two, So we probably

227
00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,600
Speaker 3: weren't going to get it because they only really moved

228
00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:16,720
Speaker 3: the ball on like a few explosives all night. Jamison

229
00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:20,520
Speaker 3: Williams and a couple Jimior Gibson, a couple. But you know,

230
00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:22,720
Speaker 3: I'd love to see it. We watched for three hours.

231
00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:24,400
Speaker 3: Could we actually get to see the two minutes we

232
00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:27,680
Speaker 3: deserve at the end? And we didn't get it. So

233
00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:29,559
Speaker 3: thanks to the Rafts, Thanks to the Eagles for another

234
00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:30,840
Speaker 3: splendid night of football.

235
00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:34,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, and both teams have some difficult schedules coming forward.

236
00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:35,720
Speaker 2: I mean, the only thing you can say about the

237
00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:38,360
Speaker 2: Lions three straight home games coming up.

238
00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:40,280
Speaker 4: But for Philly, Dallas.

239
00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:45,280
Speaker 2: Chicago, Chicago Division leading Chicago the Chargers, you know, nothing

240
00:11:45,320 --> 00:11:49,960
Speaker 2: crazy there. All right, let's keep going Seattle and the Rams.

241
00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:52,040
Speaker 2: So the Rams win this game twenty one to nineteen.

242
00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:57,000
Speaker 2: Seattle covers plus three on the road, total goes under forty.

243
00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:57,480
Speaker 4: Nine and a half.

244
00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:01,280
Speaker 2: I mean you could probably say this throughout the game,

245
00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:05,199
Speaker 2: but the first interception on the first drive for Seattle

246
00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:09,360
Speaker 2: kind of had a inkling of something to come. I

247
00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:11,080
Speaker 2: think when you were watching this one and you were

248
00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:13,520
Speaker 2: gonna be like, all right, well, is Donald gonna bounce back?

249
00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:16,880
Speaker 2: Are we going to continue to see the same play

250
00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:19,760
Speaker 2: over and over again? And we basically did. But I

251
00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,280
Speaker 2: think the interesting thing about this game before I toss

252
00:12:22,280 --> 00:12:22,760
Speaker 2: it back to.

253
00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,480
Speaker 4: You, Rams run twenty one first.

254
00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:31,240
Speaker 2: Quarter plays, score two touchdowns, basically completely empty possessions after

255
00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:35,000
Speaker 2: that point, like we never really saw that same type

256
00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:38,439
Speaker 2: of offense. They're basically gifted the third touchdown because of

257
00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:39,480
Speaker 2: the Donald interception.

258
00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:41,079
Speaker 3: So what do you really.

259
00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:41,840
Speaker 4: Make of this game?

260
00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:45,120
Speaker 2: Because I always feel like I say that the Rams

261
00:12:45,120 --> 00:12:47,560
Speaker 2: are complete. I have nothing to say about the Rams

262
00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:50,480
Speaker 2: because they're great, and they do everything the same every week,

263
00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:53,200
Speaker 2: and they're you know, it's what I kind of expect.

264
00:12:52,960 --> 00:12:53,920
Speaker 4: Going to the playoffs.

265
00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:56,880
Speaker 2: This one a little bit weird to me, like they

266
00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:59,040
Speaker 2: started out so well and then they kind of were

267
00:12:59,080 --> 00:12:59,880
Speaker 2: just gifted the game.

268
00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:03,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean their defense was good. Obviously, you earn

269
00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:06,800
Speaker 3: the turnovers and they're forcing the plays there, but certainly

270
00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:09,440
Speaker 3: their offense did feel like this was kind of given

271
00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:13,439
Speaker 3: to them. It's funny that we know that MVP goes

272
00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:17,000
Speaker 3: to quarterback wins with the Z right, Matthew Stafford's going

273
00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:18,920
Speaker 3: to have this as like the notch on his belt

274
00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:21,840
Speaker 3: for the MVP race. Now, it wasn't really that good

275
00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:24,880
Speaker 3: in this game. He wasn't terrible. Sam Darnold was terrible.

276
00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:27,439
Speaker 3: Stafford was not terrible. They got the win by two.

277
00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:32,240
Speaker 3: But like Stafford finishes minus seventeen completion O, we're expected

278
00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:35,079
Speaker 3: five and a half a dot negative EPA per play,

279
00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,199
Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty yards on the game. Nothing about

280
00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,800
Speaker 3: that is MVP. We had other MVP type games today.

281
00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,400
Speaker 3: That wasn't it. But it's gonna go on the resume

282
00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:45,320
Speaker 3: as the big win in the big game, you know,

283
00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:46,920
Speaker 3: a few weeks when we kind of forget about the

284
00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:50,840
Speaker 3: performance if you take the turnovers away, which is of

285
00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:54,080
Speaker 3: course not a real sentence in football. But outside of

286
00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:58,440
Speaker 3: those four huge plays, Seattle dominated in this game four

287
00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:01,240
Speaker 3: hundred and fourteen yards to two and forty nine yards.

288
00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,160
Speaker 3: They more than double the first downs of the Rams

289
00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:07,240
Speaker 3: twenty six to twelve, nearly double ten of possession of

290
00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:10,400
Speaker 3: thirty eight minutes to twenty two. They dominated on third

291
00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:14,040
Speaker 3: down seven of sixteen conversion. The Rams were two of eleven.

292
00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:18,280
Speaker 3: Like any stat that you're choosing, Seattle is moving the

293
00:14:18,320 --> 00:14:21,000
Speaker 3: ball and stopping the ball. Like you said, the Rams

294
00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:23,200
Speaker 3: moved it early, and then they just got the water

295
00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:26,560
Speaker 3: turned off after that. And Seattle's defense was so good

296
00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:30,560
Speaker 3: in this game. Seattle finishes forty six percent success rate.

297
00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:34,720
Speaker 3: That's fine, that's kind of around average Rams thirty seven percent.

298
00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,160
Speaker 3: That's a really low number for a team as good

299
00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:41,440
Speaker 3: as the Rams. And the problem it's two things. Seattle

300
00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:43,520
Speaker 3: goes one to four in the red zone, and we

301
00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:45,720
Speaker 3: kept getting all the field goals and you lose by two.

302
00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:49,200
Speaker 3: Guess what turn one field goal into a touchdown. Lose

303
00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,480
Speaker 3: by two means win by two instead. So that's pretty

304
00:14:51,480 --> 00:14:54,280
Speaker 3: easy math there. And then of course the main thing

305
00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:58,280
Speaker 3: is just Sam Darnold four interceptions on the game, and

306
00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:02,120
Speaker 3: they're just so damaging. I looked it up. Those four

307
00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:06,960
Speaker 3: interceptions cost them twenty four EPA again in a twenty

308
00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:11,360
Speaker 3: one to nineteen game. That's twenty four points basically that

309
00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:15,120
Speaker 3: frankly they gave the Rams. The Rams had two short

310
00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:19,760
Speaker 3: field touchdowns because of Donald's interceptions by win probability just

311
00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:23,720
Speaker 3: those four plays, fifty one percent win probability added to

312
00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:27,920
Speaker 3: the Rams by Donald giving them the ball. So to me,

313
00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:32,240
Speaker 3: Seattle looked much the better team in this game, But

314
00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:35,440
Speaker 3: Stafford wasn't really the better quarterback. He just wasn't the

315
00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:39,640
Speaker 3: worst quarterback. Donald cost Seattle the game as a Vikings fan,

316
00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:42,920
Speaker 3: Sam Donald in a big game against the Rams, costing

317
00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:47,000
Speaker 3: the game a lot of PTSD for me today, I.

318
00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:49,440
Speaker 2: Mean, yeah, so looking at the MVP odds right now,

319
00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:51,720
Speaker 2: and you kind of mention it Stafford the favorite of

320
00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,560
Speaker 2: plus one p fifty and you're not even gonna remember

321
00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:56,800
Speaker 2: this game, like you're gonna look back at whatever the

322
00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:00,440
Speaker 2: end numbers are, and especially now Stafford twenty seven touchdowns,

323
00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:02,760
Speaker 2: two interceptions, But he wasn't great today, but he just

324
00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:06,240
Speaker 2: tacked on like two touchdowns no picks, just makes his

325
00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:10,080
Speaker 2: you know, record look ridiculous. Only quarterback with twenty seven

326
00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:14,160
Speaker 2: touchdowns two picks are less through this many games. Mahomes

327
00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:17,400
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty, who literally had the exact same numbers,

328
00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:22,200
Speaker 2: the one that will probably stand above all, especially because

329
00:16:22,200 --> 00:16:25,280
Speaker 2: we've got more to come. Stafford now six and oh,

330
00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:29,400
Speaker 2: straight up versus the Rams versus I'm sorry, the Seahawks

331
00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:33,240
Speaker 2: as a member of the Rams, so they've really done

332
00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,120
Speaker 2: their job in that scenario. The other thing I feel

333
00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:39,480
Speaker 2: like we kind of have to discuss when talking about Seattle. Yes,

334
00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:43,840
Speaker 2: the four interceptions, but Jaysn has really ascended to like

335
00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:47,600
Speaker 2: in his own territory in these types of games, like

336
00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:50,560
Speaker 2: there really isn't much else there. Like we see some

337
00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:53,160
Speaker 2: other receivers do some things. There's some nice tight end

338
00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:56,680
Speaker 2: work in Seattle as well, but Jaysn, especially with the

339
00:16:56,680 --> 00:17:01,040
Speaker 2: one handed catch today, that just unbelievable how easy he

340
00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:02,040
Speaker 2: makes all that stuff.

341
00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:04,439
Speaker 4: Look, I'll put just a number or two behind this.

342
00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:07,879
Speaker 2: So this stat was everywhere, which is first player NFL

343
00:17:07,960 --> 00:17:12,399
Speaker 2: history records seventy five plus receiving yards ten straight games

344
00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:13,320
Speaker 2: to begin a season.

345
00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:14,880
Speaker 4: This one, to me is crazier.

346
00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:18,320
Speaker 2: So he's got one thousand receiving yards plus right now,

347
00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:22,840
Speaker 2: but he's got sixteen point five yards per reception through

348
00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:27,200
Speaker 2: ten games with those thousand yards. Just for some perspective here,

349
00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:30,920
Speaker 2: the last receivers to do that thousand plus yards sixteen

350
00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:35,480
Speaker 2: point five or higher through ten games. Julio Jones twenty sixteen,

351
00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:38,960
Speaker 2: and Megatron did it in twenty twelve and twenty thirteen,

352
00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:41,720
Speaker 2: so that's kind of territory right now through ten games,

353
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:46,280
Speaker 2: jasnkeeping and he's got Tennessee next. So Tennessee is not

354
00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:49,960
Speaker 2: the worst defense, but also definitely something that can be beat.

355
00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:55,560
Speaker 2: So I think with Seattle coming up Tennessee, Minnesota, Atlanta,

356
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:57,480
Speaker 2: I mean Jesus Atlanta, we'll talk about that in a

357
00:17:57,480 --> 00:18:00,680
Speaker 2: little bit, but I think there's some good things for

358
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:03,280
Speaker 2: Seattle to come here. And again I wrote this down

359
00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:06,280
Speaker 2: from Seattle's point of view, something to really be said

360
00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:10,120
Speaker 2: about how well everyone else and everything else looked other

361
00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:12,919
Speaker 2: than Darnold, and that's all really you can ask for

362
00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:13,879
Speaker 2: when you go forward.

363
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:17,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Seattle seven and three now, so they're a

364
00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:19,840
Speaker 3: game back in the division, but I think they're probably

365
00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:22,479
Speaker 3: favored every game the rest of the year. The return

366
00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:24,560
Speaker 3: game here will be, of course in Seattle, it's a

367
00:18:24,600 --> 00:18:27,480
Speaker 3: Thursday night or it's our last really big Thursday night

368
00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:30,399
Speaker 3: game December eighteenth. Mark that one on your calendar. We

369
00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:33,679
Speaker 3: actually got to watch a Thursday night game for once. Rams.

370
00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:37,199
Speaker 3: I will say a bit of caution, not necessarily like

371
00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:39,960
Speaker 3: from this game. I don't believe in them anymore, nothing

372
00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:44,600
Speaker 3: like that. Just the Rams still Next week Sunday night Bocks,

373
00:18:44,800 --> 00:18:46,960
Speaker 3: so that's a big game and the Bucks really need it.

374
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:49,880
Speaker 3: We'll see with that one of the Rams are heavily favored,

375
00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:54,320
Speaker 3: but we'll see they've still got Detroit. They still have Detroit.

376
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:58,000
Speaker 3: Then after Detroit, that's the short week game in Seattle

377
00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:01,119
Speaker 3: Thursday night. So not a great saund up there. I

378
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:06,280
Speaker 3: think we dare not just lock in Rams Eagles as

379
00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:08,480
Speaker 3: the top two NFC seeds. I know these were the

380
00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:11,800
Speaker 3: two huge NFC games that we're leading with here, but

381
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:15,720
Speaker 3: I think really to me, Seattle showed is just as

382
00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:18,879
Speaker 3: good here. I thought Detroit looked just as good. I

383
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:21,119
Speaker 3: think both of those teams are very much still in

384
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:24,480
Speaker 3: the mix for the top seeds, and that maybe this

385
00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,720
Speaker 3: result could end up kind of giving some overconfidence in

386
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,400
Speaker 3: the Rams. And I'm not really even looking to fade

387
00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,560
Speaker 3: the Rams per se, just maybe a chance to buy

388
00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:35,440
Speaker 3: low on Seattle a touch by a little bit low

389
00:19:35,520 --> 00:19:38,840
Speaker 3: on Detroit. I think very much we have a long

390
00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,080
Speaker 3: way to go here, and of course you know it's

391
00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:45,160
Speaker 3: not even Thanksgiving yet, but yeah, that both the losers

392
00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:46,520
Speaker 3: in the game we just talked about. I think are

393
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,120
Speaker 3: very much in the mix going forward, and I could

394
00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:52,159
Speaker 3: argue maybe are the two most complete teams right now

395
00:19:52,160 --> 00:19:54,080
Speaker 3: in football, even though they both lost today.

396
00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:55,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you're right.

397
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 2: I just wish I did have to buy Low as

398
00:19:57,560 --> 00:19:59,400
Speaker 2: a twelve and a half point favorite on the road

399
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:00,840
Speaker 2: against the Tight the next week.

400
00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:03,000
Speaker 4: But maybe another time for that.

401
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:06,959
Speaker 2: The one injury Tyler Higbee ankle spring insurance severity, so

402
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:10,880
Speaker 2: we will see. Unfortunately, Terrence Ferguson might get some playing time,

403
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,040
Speaker 2: not today, not so much, not today.

404
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:15,200
Speaker 4: Okay, moving on.

405
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:18,119
Speaker 2: To our next game here, Chiefs Broncos. We alluded to

406
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,399
Speaker 2: this before, we will hit on it now. So Denver

407
00:20:20,440 --> 00:20:23,320
Speaker 2: wins this game twenty two to nineteen, covers the plus

408
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:26,880
Speaker 2: four at home total goes under forty four and a half.

409
00:20:27,880 --> 00:20:28,200
Speaker 4: Listen.

410
00:20:28,280 --> 00:20:30,399
Speaker 2: Like early on and I wrote this in my notes,

411
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:32,520
Speaker 2: it didn't really end up coming to fruition, but I

412
00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,359
Speaker 2: feel like it's just the same story every week with Denver.

413
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:39,240
Speaker 2: Denver gets inside the KC eleven yard line twice inside

414
00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 2: the first two into the first two drives, both end

415
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:46,360
Speaker 2: with field goals, and honestly, any other time you would say, oh,

416
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 2: that's something you can't do against Kansas City can't get

417
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:51,959
Speaker 2: that deep and just kick field goals, you'll end up

418
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:54,399
Speaker 2: paying for it. They didn't really end up paying for

419
00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:57,680
Speaker 2: it because their defense just ends up bailing them out

420
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:01,640
Speaker 2: every single week. And that's pretty much what happened here.

421
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 2: Casey five or fourteen on third down, four fourth down combined,

422
00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:10,719
Speaker 2: one of four in the red zone, and overall, I

423
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 2: think there's certain stacks that'll point you in both directions,

424
00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 2: but I think bo Nick's outplayed pat in this game.

425
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:17,040
Speaker 4: Mostly.

426
00:21:17,960 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 2: The penalties is something that will just blow your doors off.

427
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:25,680
Speaker 2: Ten of one forty seven for the Broncos in this game,

428
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:29,399
Speaker 2: and that's on the winning side, So pretty ridiculous. And

429
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 2: I think the other if you were going to put

430
00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:35,240
Speaker 2: up like sirens looking at kind of the whole Broncos

431
00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 2: game here, twenty one to fifty nine on the ground,

432
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:42,040
Speaker 2: two point eight and a long rush of eight would

433
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,120
Speaker 2: be an issue in your first game without JK.

434
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:44,760
Speaker 4: Dobbins.

435
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:47,240
Speaker 2: But other than the obvious, what do you take from

436
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:47,920
Speaker 2: Casey Denver?

437
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:50,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I kind of just felt like this was the

438
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:53,199
Speaker 3: exact game that I was expecting to get out of

439
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,600
Speaker 3: this just not really knowing how the ending would come up.

440
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 3: As you were talking that dond I mean, I pulled

441
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 3: up my notes going into the game as I was

442
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 3: kind of filtering through what do I like, And of

443
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:04,920
Speaker 3: course I was under on this game. The under did hit,

444
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 3: but our mind shaft kind of fell apart near the end.

445
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 3: So in my notes, I have both defenses definitely have

446
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 3: the advantage, should be close in the fourth quarter. And

447
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,760
Speaker 3: then here are the bets. I wrote down mind shaft

448
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 3: under either team to win by under a touchdown, either

449
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 3: team to win by exactly a field goal. Just feels

450
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:23,920
Speaker 3: like whoever is the ball last wins by a field goal.

451
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 3: And then here we are. That's basically the game we saw.

452
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 3: Like you go down the line on the stats, you

453
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 3: basically just see we sit at the top. These teams

454
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:35,720
Speaker 3: don't want to be compared to each other. I thought,

455
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 3: this is just an even game between two slightly above

456
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,600
Speaker 3: average teams right now, Like the stats are pretty even,

457
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 3: The quarterback play pretty even in this game, like by

458
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 3: a lot of the stats, and the epas and those

459
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 3: things pretty much about the same. So Denver, you're gonna

460
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 3: not be happy to be compared to Kansas City. Here,

461
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 3: Kansas City, you're not be happy that Mahomes is equal

462
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 3: to bow Nicks as you should not be happy about that.

463
00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 3: So underrated play that I think we kind of forget about.

464
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,680
Speaker 3: The Chiefs get the touchdown late, that seems like it's

465
00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:07,960
Speaker 3: going to be enough, but they missed the extra point,

466
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 3: so what would be a four point lead turns into three?

467
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 3: And I know Denver scored six after that, But does

468
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:18,359
Speaker 3: Denver kick the first field goal if it's not tying

469
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,199
Speaker 3: but keeping them down by one? Probably not. They probably

470
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 3: have to go for it, and Denver hadn't shown they

471
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:26,879
Speaker 3: could convert in the red zone and actually finish the job.

472
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:30,960
Speaker 3: So I kind of think that missed extra point maybe

473
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:34,880
Speaker 3: a little bit underrated here Denver now eight game win streak,

474
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:37,719
Speaker 3: whatever we have to say about them, the ws are

475
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 3: adding up. You know, all the teams you compared them

476
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 3: to the Chiefs. Of course, last year ten to zero

477
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 3: in one score games, this year zero to five so far.

478
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 3: So regression can be a real deck sometimes and it

479
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:54,120
Speaker 3: has come hard for the Chiefs. These teams play Christmas night,

480
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 3: that's the next time, and by then it might not

481
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,399
Speaker 3: really matter for Denver. If we're being on, they are

482
00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,920
Speaker 3: kind of really out ahead here in the Division nine

483
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:08,040
Speaker 3: and two. Now, I guess somehow it's a bow Knicks

484
00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:10,960
Speaker 3: and Daniel Jones AFC world that we are living in.

485
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 3: I don't really know how we got here, but I'm

486
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:14,400
Speaker 3: not sure I enjoy it that much.

487
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 2: Rich May Drake May as well. To back up your

488
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,199
Speaker 2: stat how about this one. I looked this one up.

489
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,880
Speaker 2: Before everyone's talking about the one score games. Case had

490
00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 2: won seventeen straight one score games before the five game

491
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 2: losing streak, so that is real, real regression. I believe

492
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,439
Speaker 2: they also haven't fumbled yet this year, so there is

493
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 2: so much still going in their direction. I feel like

494
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,880
Speaker 2: they're also positive. I think it look this up positive

495
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 2: turnover differential, like there's a lot of things still good

496
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 2: on Casey's side. Yet they've they're five and five and

497
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 2: they've lost five games already. Pretty crazy. Mahomes eighteen to

498
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 2: two straight up on the road in the AFC West,

499
00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 2: both losses to the Broncos and Denver. Trailed in this

500
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 2: game because it did go back and forth, So they've

501
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,239
Speaker 2: now trailed in all eleven games this year. They are

502
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 2: nine and two straight up five and six against spreading

503
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 2: those games, and we had talked about this last week.

504
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 2: Last week it was more of a joke this week,

505
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 2: probably not as much of a joke, but case to

506
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 2: make the playoffs now minus two twenty plus one seventy

507
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 2: six to miss.

508
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 4: You're better at this than I am.

509
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:27,919
Speaker 3: Is it two games?

510
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 4: One and a half games because of Jacksonville and the tiebreak.

511
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 3: I have a look from a posts today, but I

512
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:40,119
Speaker 3: did look ahead. I'm not still worried about Chiefs making

513
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:43,160
Speaker 3: the playoffs. So they're five and a five. They played

514
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 3: the Colts snacks, so they could be five and six.

515
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 3: That is very much in play right now. But if

516
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,200
Speaker 3: they're five and six, then I think is the time

517
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 3: to buy in and get that play that yes, playoff

518
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:58,160
Speaker 3: ticket something approaching even odds because here's the final six

519
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:04,439
Speaker 3: games after Indy now Boys, Texans, Chargers, Titans, Broncos, that

520
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 3: other game in Kansas City on Christmas, and then a Raiders.

521
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 3: Maybe I'm holding on to what the old Chiefs were,

522
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:15,960
Speaker 3: and I know, like that Mahomes feeling of invincibility doesn't

523
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 3: seem quite to be there the way it once was.

524
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,880
Speaker 3: I have a really hard time finding a loss anywhere

525
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 3: in those six If the Chiefs are like five and

526
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:27,399
Speaker 3: six and we're staring down the barrel of missing the playoffs,

527
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 3: You're losing to the Cowboys, you're getting swept by the Chargers,

528
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 3: You're losing to the Broncos in the return game in

529
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 3: Kansas City on Christmas Night. I just I can't live

530
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 3: in that world yet with this team. So I don't

531
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 3: feel that bad about them here. I don't want to

532
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 3: be the six or seven seed because you got to

533
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:48,960
Speaker 3: go on the road and win two three games to

534
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 3: get to the super Bowl. So long term futures, which

535
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,919
Speaker 3: is the only thing that matters for the Chiefs, not great.

536
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,119
Speaker 3: But I do think they're still going to get to

537
00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 3: the playoffs, but it increasingly looks like it's gonna be

538
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 3: very much on the road, and that they're also going

539
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 3: to not really have any rests. They're gonna have to

540
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 3: push all the way now to get there. Those sorts

541
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,200
Speaker 3: of things are going to matter and make the road

542
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,679
Speaker 3: much harder once they do get there. Denver nine and

543
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,680
Speaker 3: two into the bye week now, then they come out

544
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 3: Washington and Vegas after that, So we're looking at eleven

545
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 3: and two Denver with a tougher closing schedule, but they

546
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:26,159
Speaker 3: might be in the push for the one seed at

547
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 3: this point, which Denver at home in the one seed

548
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,679
Speaker 3: definitely makes them a threat with that defense, the Denver

549
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:37,479
Speaker 3: home advantage. It's also interesting because we know how the

550
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 3: one seed is heavily an MVP experience. Denver's not gonna

551
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 3: give us an MVP, so if they're taking a spot

552
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:47,160
Speaker 3: that high, it's like freeing up MVP to an NFC

553
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:49,560
Speaker 3: one seed or to a two seed or something like that.

554
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,120
Speaker 3: So those are some of the things kind of futures.

555
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 3: Whyse that I have my eye on. I'm not panicked

556
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:57,959
Speaker 3: on the Chiefs. I'm only even slightly concerned as far

557
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 3: as make the playoffs. I certainly not looking at Mahomes MVP.

558
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 3: I'm not looking at Chiefs futures to make or win

559
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:09,800
Speaker 3: the Super Bowl. It's just increasingly a two steep of

560
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,640
Speaker 3: an ass for this team concerning that. The prices aren't

561
00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 3: really discounted at all.

562
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 2: Right now, Yeah, I kind of wish the entire Denver

563
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 2: defense could win MVP, but we're like a Drake May

564
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:24,919
Speaker 2: and a Matthew Stafford bad game away from that article

565
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,360
Speaker 2: coming out where we'll just give it to the entire defense.

566
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 2: Kansas City, I think I disagree only in one fact.

567
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:35,439
Speaker 2: So next four games, three at home, but it's Indy, Dallas,

568
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:40,400
Speaker 2: Houston Chargers, all four of those teams really really really

569
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 2: need those games Like that is a really difficult four

570
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 2: game stretch of just different types of opponents. Like if

571
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 2: Kansas City they really need to go three and one

572
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 2: or four to zero in those games, like obviously based

573
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 2: off the five and five record, but before you get

574
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,160
Speaker 2: to that Tennessee game, and that's in Tennessee.

575
00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 4: Not not easy. I don't know.

576
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 2: I talked about case no playoffs last week as even

577
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 2: an option. Obviously, if you took that ticket, you want

578
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 2: nothing here. I think you kind of wait and see

579
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,960
Speaker 2: against the Colts, but getting kind of hairy.

580
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 3: It's gonna be tough. They certainly have not given themselves

581
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 3: a lot of margin for air. They are probably feeling

582
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 3: good to be in the AFC right now, not the NFC.

583
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, So before we move on, don't forget

584
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 2: to sign up for Action Pro for real time pick

585
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 2: alerts from experts like Brandon Anderson, Chris Raymunstucky, our entire

586
00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 2: Action our team. Plus you can access our pro projections

587
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 2: powered by Sean Kerner and our predictive analytics team. Just

588
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 2: go to Action hour dot com Slash pro get twenty

589
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 2: dollars off the annual price of the promo code Pod

590
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 2: twenty Pod twenty. To miss out on the best bets

591
00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,479
Speaker 2: at the best prices, Visit Action hour dot com slash

592
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 2: Pro use the promo code Pod twenty to get twenty

593
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 2: dollars off a year of Action Pro. All right, a

594
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 2: little bit shorter recaps here as we roll through these games.

595
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 2: Buffalo wins forty four to thirty two, cover minus six

596
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 2: and half on close at home. Total goes over forty

597
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 2: six and a half. The one thing that I thought

598
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 2: was kind of fun here at least recently, so he

599
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 2: had seventy six total points in this one. Total goes

600
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 2: over by twenty nine and a half, almost thirty points.

601
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 4: Over the total.

602
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 2: We've actually had three straight weeks now where a total

603
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 2: has gone over by twenty nine and a half. Week eight,

604
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 2: that crazy Jets Cincinnati game, Week nine, the crazy Cincinnati

605
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:27,239
Speaker 2: Bears game, and now Tampa Bay and Buffalo. So you

606
00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 2: have had some real easy overcashes the last three weeks.

607
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 2: But when I watched this game, just overall, I feel

608
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 2: like I kept saying to myself, even though seventy six

609
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 2: total points were scored, I was missing like really big

610
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 2: name wide receivers and like talented players, because Buffalo kind

611
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 2: of just doesn't have that Josh Allen six touchdowns at himself,

612
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 2: but it wasn't.

613
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 4: Like Khalil Shakir plays the entire game, does absolutely nothing.

614
00:30:56,640 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 2: There is no Dalton Kinkaid installed Knoxes down there, and

615
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 2: obviously no Godwin, no Evans. Like I just felt like,

616
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:07,920
Speaker 2: even though we got that many points on the board,

617
00:31:08,200 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 2: I was missing some things from the game because it

618
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 2: just ended up turning out to be a Josh Allen

619
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 2: hero fest. But I mean, you know, Buffalo goes for

620
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 2: seven point eight yards per play, Josh targets twelve ten

621
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 2: different players like it was his game, and that's the

622
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 2: way it kind of turned out, especially Baker didn't exactly

623
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 2: play well. So what do you take from Bill's bucks?

624
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Josh targeted a couple of bucks early

625
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 3: as well, so let's not forget that that kind of

626
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,720
Speaker 3: left the game open early on. But when you get

627
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 3: three rushing and three passing touchdowns later, I mean finish

628
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 3: the game basically at a half a point epa per

629
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 3: play for the game, even with those two rough interceptions,

630
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,160
Speaker 3: you know you're putting up crazy production when you end

631
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 3: up that positive, even with two huge mistakes. I will

632
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 3: say though, Sean Tuckery Raser, our guy put up one

633
00:31:56,400 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 3: hundred and six rushing yards and three scores for the

634
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 3: Buccan years a name for himself out here.

635
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 2: How many benches do you think Sean Tucker was on

636
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 2: today with people being like, we're Sean White. I mean,

637
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 2: he's got to get all the carries and this and that.

638
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 2: Sean Tucker literally ridiculous, ridiculous.

639
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 3: You love your Sean Tucker spots start in your sixteen

640
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 3: team home league, right, that's basically the only ones where

641
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 3: he's getting. Then Bill's special teams played a big role

642
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 3: both directions. They activated me Cole Hardman and he got

643
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 3: a big return on his first touch and he fumbled

644
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 3: his second touch. So it just I don't really have

645
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 3: a lot of takeaways to go forward from this game.

646
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:35,880
Speaker 3: It just was the fun game of the day. My

647
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 3: buddy Ryan went to this game, this first game he's

648
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 3: ever gone to in Buffalo. You get the cold, you

649
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 3: got some flurries late. I think we had nine lead

650
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,720
Speaker 3: changes in this game. This back and forth and wild production.

651
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:50,320
Speaker 3: Seventy six points like this is the full Buffalo football

652
00:32:50,360 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 3: game experience, and you gonna see Josh Allen defending MVP,

653
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 3: like make the big plays and the Bill's pull away late,

654
00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 3: and yeah, I feel like this is just kind of

655
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 3: what these teams are. I don't think we necessarily learned

656
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 3: a lot. We just saw both teams kind of hit

657
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 3: their barrel and neither defense could really do much. Couple

658
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:10,400
Speaker 3: times Buffalo got a couple stops late and that turned

659
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 3: out to be enough. Bucks now have lost three or four.

660
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 3: There are six and four. They're technically tied in the

661
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 3: wind column with the Panthers, but they play Rams next week.

662
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 3: The Panthers could go ahead of them. Panthers and Buccaneers

663
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 3: our Sunday and Monday night next week, so we'll be

664
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 3: talking those when we are here a week from now.

665
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 3: But after the Rams game, the Bucks still go Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Dolphins, Panthers.

666
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 3: So if you want to believe in the Panthers, they

667
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 3: get both Buccaneers games in the last three weeks of

668
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 3: the season. But to me that just reads I can't

669
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 3: panic with the Buccaneers. They're fine, Baki will be back

670
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 3: soon enough. God'll be back soon enough. They kind of

671
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 3: went toe to toe with the Bills here and then

672
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 3: just ran out of gas in the fourth quarter. Seems

673
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 3: mostly okay to me. I don't I don't know that

674
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:02,680
Speaker 3: I take too much away from either team here.

675
00:34:04,200 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 2: I would say from Buffalo's standpoint, my one worry they're pressure.

676
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 2: So six of thirty five dropbacks on Baker pressure today

677
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 2: six of twenty three versus two. Well last week, better

678
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:19,919
Speaker 2: percentage there obviously, but still not a ton overall. Now

679
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 2: coming up, I don't know what you're gonna get. It's

680
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 2: a Thursday night football. I assume it's CJ. Stroud, but

681
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 2: after that you could have Mason Rudolph and then Joe Flacco.

682
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:29,919
Speaker 4: Or maybe Burrow comes back.

683
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,040
Speaker 2: Either way, I think they're gonna have to get some

684
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 2: more pressure and kind of help out the time of

685
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 2: possession a little bit to keep the offense, you know,

686
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:39,240
Speaker 2: off the field.

687
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 3: Now, I'm not so sure Stroud personally on a short

688
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,719
Speaker 3: week when you haven't clear concussion protocol in two weeks

689
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,320
Speaker 3: like it, if he's not out. If you're listening to

690
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 3: this on like Monday afternoon, mid afternoon and CJS Stroud

691
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 3: is not cleared, I don't know if there's even enough

692
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:56,279
Speaker 3: time at that point to get him cleared and on

693
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,000
Speaker 3: the field of practice, Like it is a rough spot

694
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:02,360
Speaker 3: for Houston, who needs badly this to get him back.

695
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 3: You don't want Davis Mills going against Buffalo, and frankly

696
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 3: it'd be a really nice Thursday night matchup for us.

697
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:10,400
Speaker 3: So hopefully we get Stroud back out there.

698
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:13,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the one worry in this stat kind

699
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 2: of blew me away. I had this in my primer,

700
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 2: but with the Bucks loss, Todd Bowles now five and

701
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:22,479
Speaker 2: twenty five straight up as an underdog versus a team

702
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 2: with a double digit win total, so really best in

703
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 2: the NFL underdog in the game. Bowles is an underdog

704
00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,320
Speaker 2: also been terrible, and in this one they just didn't.

705
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:34,279
Speaker 2: They just look discombobulated. But again, I kind of just

706
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 2: give Baker a little bit of credit. The passing yards

707
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:39,560
Speaker 2: weren't there, but you're without so many targets, Like I

708
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,399
Speaker 2: feel like between Bucky and Godwin, it evans like they

709
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 2: just need to start getting people back or they're just

710
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:49,320
Speaker 2: gonna hand this division to Carolina, all right, anything else.

711
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:52,360
Speaker 3: Here, No, let's go to Carolina Panthers Island.

712
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:54,000
Speaker 4: Baby, here we go.

713
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:58,320
Speaker 2: Unreal, So Carolina wins this game thirty twenty seven covers

714
00:35:58,400 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 2: plus four on the road.

715
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,239
Speaker 4: Total was over forty two all.

716
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 2: My first line year is Bryce Young holy Craft thirty

717
00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:10,319
Speaker 2: one to forty five, four forty eight, four forty eight.

718
00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 2: That's probably three games in total at some point in

719
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:20,040
Speaker 2: his career. Three touchdowns, zero interceptions, plus fourteen point nine

720
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 2: total expected points added in this game. He had twenty

721
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:28,920
Speaker 2: passing first downs in this one. So Carolina makes the

722
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:32,399
Speaker 2: red zone six times in this game. The last time

723
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 2: they did that oh Week eighteen, also versued Atlanta. Carolina

724
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 2: has scored now sixty points versus Atlanta and their two

725
00:36:41,160 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 2: games this year. It's just this matchup And I think

726
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:46,960
Speaker 2: that's what I ended up keying on when I was

727
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,799
Speaker 2: doing my research pre week and then even looking at

728
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:53,200
Speaker 2: past games between these two teams. This one just sucks.

729
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 2: And I'll talk about Atlanta get in a second. For

730
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:58,560
Speaker 2: Atlanta in like their history and you know things that

731
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:00,720
Speaker 2: they you know, when they have to win these games

732
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 2: late season against Carolina, they seem to just keep rolling

733
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:04,319
Speaker 2: the same egg.

734
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:10,040
Speaker 3: Yeah. Look, Carolina just again is better in the underdog

735
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:14,239
Speaker 3: script and there is the favorite, and even despite all that,

736
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 3: so look Panthers plus three and a half Panthers money line.

737
00:37:18,239 --> 00:37:20,840
Speaker 3: We did look ahead, we did hot read. This is

738
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 3: what I built the pick six around. We hit the

739
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 3: pick six plus eight fifty four. This is the one.

740
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 3: I don't even really think I got the read right,

741
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:31,359
Speaker 3: to be honest. Like, the thing that I liked about

742
00:37:31,400 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 3: the game was Panthers run the ball, Panthers stopped the run.

743
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 3: None of those things happened in this game. Panthers had

744
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 3: a twenty three percent success rate running the football. They

745
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 3: had one first down. I believe running the football all game.

746
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 3: They were even worse than early downs. I was not

747
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 3: banking on four and forty eight Price Young passing yards today.

748
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:54,280
Speaker 3: That wasn't the cap And by the way, the Falcons

749
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:56,920
Speaker 3: ran the ball pretty well. Bejan had one hundred yards

750
00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 3: two scores. Atlanta had eleven percent high success rate for

751
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 3: the game. Ted McMillan was a monster. Wasn't counting on

752
00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 3: that one either. Really, it's both quarterbacks. I think that

753
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:11,000
Speaker 3: swung the game where I guess I should say all

754
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:15,280
Speaker 3: three quarterbacks because Bryce was great, but Pennix was really

755
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 3: pretty good. Then he leaves with a knee injury, and

756
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:21,240
Speaker 3: now Kirk Cousins comes in, he goes six to fourteen.

757
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 3: In relief, you can't really see a whole lot there,

758
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:26,919
Speaker 3: but the underlying numbers Pennix's point six y five EP

759
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 3: per play. Cousins goes negative point thirteen, and it goes

760
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 3: from sixteen completion unver expected to minus twenty eight. That's it.

761
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:39,320
Speaker 3: That's the game. The Falcons are ahead, Penix goes out,

762
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:42,480
Speaker 3: Cousins can't do anything. The Panthers come back and finish

763
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 3: the game off, and now is basically it. The Falcons

764
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 3: are now three and seven. Penni's hurt, the same kned

765
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:49,640
Speaker 3: that he already missed a game with earlier in the

766
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 3: year and has a lot of injury history. Drake London

767
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 3: had a knee injury. Doesn't look too serious, but you

768
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 3: never know. At three and seven, you're probably that's probably it.

769
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 3: Like this, this was the shot for Atlanta to get

770
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 3: back maybe into even the division race here instead. Don't forget,

771
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:09,839
Speaker 3: as we talk about Michael Pennix, they traded a first

772
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 3: round pick next year to get into the first round

773
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:15,359
Speaker 3: this year to support Pennix and get James Pearce, one

774
00:39:15,360 --> 00:39:17,319
Speaker 3: of the pass rushers that not even doing a lot

775
00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 3: right now. That pick right now is like a possible

776
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 3: top five pick by going to the Rams, by the way,

777
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 3: So that as far as how the Rams feel about

778
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 3: their draft picks, they're just sitting on one right now

779
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:34,279
Speaker 3: as Atlantic kind of tail spins down. But from this

780
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 3: particular game. Look, even the last time Carolina won thirty

781
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:40,840
Speaker 3: to nothing earlier of the year, I remember out of

782
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 3: that one and it was like, oh, okay, what's the damage. Oh,

783
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 3: actually it doesn't look that bad for Atlanta, but Atlanta

784
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 3: get the win. Stop not looking that bad. You can't

785
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 3: just get swept by Carolina out of the season basically,

786
00:39:54,280 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 3: So yeah, Carolina, I do that. They're another team today

787
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 3: that played aggressive and didn't take the points and it

788
00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:04,280
Speaker 3: nearly cost them the game, but it came back around

789
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 3: eventually to get there six and five. Now for Carolina,

790
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 3: they're they're hanging right there. We have the biggest Carolina

791
00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 3: game in years at least next Monday night at San Francisco.

792
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:19,400
Speaker 3: Really important because San Francisco ostensibly is a team that

793
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 3: Carolina is vying for the same playoff spot. So that's

794
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:25,160
Speaker 3: a head to head spot for them. If you believe

795
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:27,359
Speaker 3: in the team, they're gonna have to prove it because

796
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:30,920
Speaker 3: it's Niners, then the Rams, and then they closed the

797
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 3: last three weeks with box Seahawks Bucks. So if you

798
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:37,319
Speaker 3: want to believe in Panthers, you better really believe in

799
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:40,200
Speaker 3: the Panthers. And I got to tell you I believed

800
00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 3: in the Panthers today we made some money off of them.

801
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 3: I do not believe in the Panthers in those games

802
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:48,280
Speaker 3: coming up. Don't get too excited. They got a couple

803
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 3: of nice underdog scripts here. I think we kind of

804
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 3: lucked into this one. I thought Atlanta was probably the

805
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 3: better team and lost because the quarterback got hurt and

806
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 3: because they're Atlanta and that's what they do.

807
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:03,400
Speaker 2: Carolina has now won three straight on the road. They

808
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:06,760
Speaker 2: were three and nineteen straight up on the road before

809
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:09,759
Speaker 2: this streak, so that just gives you some perspective on

810
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:12,280
Speaker 2: where they are currently. I think the thing for Atlanta,

811
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:13,920
Speaker 2: and I'll put some data behind this as well. So

812
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:17,280
Speaker 2: last four years since twenty twenty two, Falcons have lost

813
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 2: both straight up and against the spread in four straight

814
00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 2: games in Week ten or later against the Panthers.

815
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 4: In all four of those games, Atlanta was.

816
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 2: The favorite, so really just derailing their season every single year.

817
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 2: Facing Carolina in this situation, they just continue to drop

818
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:36,640
Speaker 2: an egg. Here's the one that's crazy to me, last

819
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:40,319
Speaker 2: four games, whether it's been Pennix or Kirk, six of

820
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 2: twenty one passing to Darnell Mooney, Like we saw that

821
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:47,040
Speaker 2: one of eight game, but even today, six of twenty

822
00:41:47,120 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 2: one over the last four games feels near impossible. I

823
00:41:50,800 --> 00:41:53,319
Speaker 2: believe Drake London also hurt in this game. We'll have

824
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 2: to see severity of injury going forward, but it just

825
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:59,440
Speaker 2: seems like it's kind of over for Atlanta. Here's the

826
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 2: last stat I'll give you. This one's just nut out.

827
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:05,319
Speaker 2: So the Falcons are oh to seven this year. When

828
00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 2: their opponent leads by more than a field goal, four

829
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:08,799
Speaker 2: points or more.

830
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:11,799
Speaker 4: That's it. Atlanta hasn't won a game they are.

831
00:42:11,880 --> 00:42:15,160
Speaker 2: They've lost nine in a row when the opponent has

832
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:17,720
Speaker 2: led by just four points or more at any point

833
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:21,319
Speaker 2: in the game. One in thirteen. Last fourteen, only win

834
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:24,279
Speaker 2: was beating the Giants thirty four to seven, which isn't

835
00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:27,160
Speaker 2: a comeback at all. So this Atlanta team, yes, they

836
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:30,120
Speaker 2: run the ball really really well, they've got nothing else

837
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:33,120
Speaker 2: figured out, but that Owen nine stat is crazy.

838
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:34,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's rough.

839
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:38,959
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep going here. Jacksonville Chargers. Speaking of rough,

840
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:42,600
Speaker 2: Jacksonville wins a game thirty five to six covers plus

841
00:42:42,640 --> 00:42:45,080
Speaker 2: three at home total under forty three and a half

842
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:48,800
Speaker 2: blow out city. This one was crazy. I mean, the

843
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 2: Chargers here are the drives, punt, field goal, punt, field goal, punt, punt, interception,

844
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:58,080
Speaker 2: turnover on downs, turnover on downs, game over. To be clear,

845
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,520
Speaker 2: Herbert tended like the number don't even look real. This

846
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 2: almost looks like the first quarter and a half sometimes

847
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:08,480
Speaker 2: like ten of eighteen eighty one yards an interception, and oh,

848
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:11,480
Speaker 2: Trey Lance shows up out of nowhere, like most people

849
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,800
Speaker 2: even forgot, like he was even around, Like, oh, Herbert's

850
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 2: playing bad enough where we're just going to introduce Trey

851
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:17,800
Speaker 2: Lance into the situation.

852
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:19,920
Speaker 4: But the thing that's crazy.

853
00:43:19,600 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 2: About this game, like you expect to look at the

854
00:43:22,160 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 2: other side and be like, oh my god, Trevor Lawrence,

855
00:43:24,560 --> 00:43:28,400
Speaker 2: what a performance. Fourteen to twenty two, one fifty three

856
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 2: touchdown and a pick and a negative completion percentage over expected.

857
00:43:32,320 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 2: Like there was nothing going on in this game that

858
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:37,759
Speaker 2: led either offense. I mean, the best thing about this

859
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:41,479
Speaker 2: game was was belal touton and he ends up getting hurt.

860
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:44,840
Speaker 2: The biggest here, here's here's the here's the one that

861
00:43:45,080 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 2: then I'll toss it to you. The biggest play by

862
00:43:47,160 --> 00:43:50,240
Speaker 2: expected points added was the Herbert interception of the fourth

863
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 2: quarter down twenty eight to six. Like nothing happened in

864
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 2: this game.

865
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:58,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, and I know when we kind of

866
00:43:58,520 --> 00:44:00,719
Speaker 3: to go pull back the curtains here, as we're kind

867
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 3: of organizing our rundown, we sort of sorting the games

868
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 3: and the big ones, the medium ones, and the skip

869
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 3: them games. And you had this in the skip them

870
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:10,120
Speaker 3: right off the bat, and I kept moving it up

871
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 3: and you kept moving it down. I was like, no,

872
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 3: I have somebody to say about this game. So here's

873
00:44:14,160 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 3: the thing. I have very little to say about this game. However,

874
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:21,280
Speaker 3: this particular game was one of the biggest swing games

875
00:44:21,280 --> 00:44:23,839
Speaker 3: for playoff factors so far in the season, even though

876
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:27,279
Speaker 3: the game itself is not that interesting. Just a couple

877
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:30,879
Speaker 3: comments on the game. Chargers one hundred and thirty five

878
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:34,280
Speaker 3: yards total for the game, two hundred and ten yards

879
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:38,360
Speaker 3: less than the Jaguars thirty to eight on first downs.

880
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:41,440
Speaker 3: The one thing about Herbert that he did do he

881
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 3: led the team in rushing with twenty one yards. He

882
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:47,280
Speaker 3: had twenty one yards and the rest of the team

883
00:44:47,320 --> 00:44:51,280
Speaker 3: had twenty one yards on thirteen runs. So in the meantime,

884
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 3: Jacksonville gave Lawrence the stats. But Jacksonville ran the ball

885
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 3: forty seven for almost two hundred yards and four scores.

886
00:44:58,360 --> 00:45:02,279
Speaker 3: So just to me, red flags everywhere for Chargers. Where

887
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 3: if they win this game, I think they were going

888
00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 3: to like ninety percent plus on playoff probability. Now you

889
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:11,319
Speaker 3: have both trenches and shambles. Their line is all in

890
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:14,400
Speaker 3: the hospital. They can't run block to save their lives,

891
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 3: and I can't stop the run. The Jaguars just ran

892
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 3: two hundred yards on them. Chargers are in their bye

893
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 3: week now they need it, but they could use like

894
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:25,760
Speaker 3: a by month. Then they play the Raiders, but after

895
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 3: that they still have Eagles at the Chiefs at the Cowboys.

896
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:33,320
Speaker 3: We know how Dallas is at home, Texans at Denver.

897
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:36,600
Speaker 3: That's a tough schedule, man like that is a rough

898
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 3: closing schedule. And now they lost head to head to

899
00:45:40,800 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 3: the Jaguars, who are the most likely team charging for

900
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 3: that playoff spot. If the Chargers fall back a little bit,

901
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 3: Jacksonville goes at Arizona winnable. Next week they still play

902
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 3: Tennessee twice, does Jacksonville. They get the Jets as well.

903
00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:59,840
Speaker 3: They do play the Colts twice and the Broncos. But

904
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:03,280
Speaker 3: there are winnable games there for Jacksonville. And I think

905
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:06,839
Speaker 3: this game itself was the one that just went straight off,

906
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 3: like not even in the quad box on YouTube TV today,

907
00:46:10,320 --> 00:46:14,040
Speaker 3: just nothing. But the result of the game, I thought,

908
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 3: and is going to end up being one of the

909
00:46:15,600 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 3: more important results going forward. And I gave out a

910
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:22,200
Speaker 3: week ago Chargers missed the playoffs. Then we came here

911
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:24,439
Speaker 3: at the end of a Chargers game where they knocked

912
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:26,719
Speaker 3: out the Steelers and looked really good. Well, this is

913
00:46:26,760 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 3: the other side, and this is my fear about the Chargers,

914
00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:31,320
Speaker 3: is what we saw in this game, which was hopefully

915
00:46:31,400 --> 00:46:32,880
Speaker 3: very little because it was terrible.

916
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:36,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, this one, you mentioned it, but the Chargers really

917
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:40,080
Speaker 2: needed this game, I mean right before the buye as well,

918
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 2: like the opportunity to take this one away. And you

919
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:47,440
Speaker 2: mentioned the Chargers schedule complete opposite for Jacksonville. Six the

920
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 2: easiest schedule in terms of strength to schedule the remaining

921
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 2: and they faced the Titans twice, the Jets, and the

922
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:57,320
Speaker 2: Cardinals still so that you know the Jaguar is getting

923
00:46:57,360 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 2: this win just really propels them forward in my opinion,

924
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:03,399
Speaker 2: like the opportunity is all there. I think the thing

925
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 2: that kind of just sucks. You're not getting Travis Hunter

926
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:10,160
Speaker 2: back at any point. Brian Thomas Junior didn't play in

927
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:12,960
Speaker 2: this game. You probably should get him back at some point.

928
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:16,600
Speaker 2: Like there's lots to maybe look forward to in terms

929
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:19,319
Speaker 2: of Jacksonville, Like you're not even playing well and you're

930
00:47:19,640 --> 00:47:23,359
Speaker 2: just kind of stacking up wins. So and especially the

931
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:26,319
Speaker 2: the team chasing you already beat them head to head.

932
00:47:26,440 --> 00:47:29,439
Speaker 2: So in terms of the Chiefs, it just things are

933
00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:32,400
Speaker 2: oddly looking up in a team that has nothing to

934
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 2: look up to. It's an odd situation and a real

935
00:47:36,680 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 2: dominating win. The one stat I'll give you before we

936
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:43,280
Speaker 2: move on, Justin Herbert now fourteen and twenty three straight

937
00:47:43,360 --> 00:47:46,840
Speaker 2: up versus teams above five hundred, the worst mark on

938
00:47:46,880 --> 00:47:50,240
Speaker 2: the money line of any QB since he entered the league.

939
00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:52,760
Speaker 4: His twenty three straight up losses.

940
00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:55,680
Speaker 2: Are now I'm trying to think, oh, now, okay, that's

941
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:59,279
Speaker 2: actually funny. So now they are one behind Baker, who

942
00:47:59,360 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 2: he was tied with. Baker now leads with twenty four

943
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:03,879
Speaker 2: updating that in my head.

944
00:48:04,239 --> 00:48:08,839
Speaker 4: All right, let's move on here. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

945
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 2: So Pittsburgh wins this game thirty four to twelve, covers

946
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 2: minus five and a half at home, total under forty

947
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:19,760
Speaker 2: seven and a half on close. The final score definitely

948
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:22,920
Speaker 2: not indicative of kind of how close it was early,

949
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 2: but the whole headline is probably Aaron Rodgers. So Rogers

950
00:48:27,480 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 2: gets hurt at the end of the first half, doesn't

951
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 2: start the second half. Cincinnati starts off with the ball

952
00:48:33,640 --> 00:48:35,880
Speaker 2: in the second half, and we kind of start seeing

953
00:48:36,280 --> 00:48:39,840
Speaker 2: Mason Rudolph warming up on the sideline, so that decision

954
00:48:39,880 --> 00:48:42,680
Speaker 2: definitely gets made at some point in there. But listen,

955
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 2: it's just ten to nine Steelers when Rudolph enters the game,

956
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:51,120
Speaker 2: so at that point anything can happen. And Rudolph played well.

957
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:53,439
Speaker 2: I mean, a fifteen play drive to a field goal,

958
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:57,000
Speaker 2: a twelve play drive to a touchdown pass. Both drives

959
00:48:57,040 --> 00:49:00,239
Speaker 2: together take up almost fourteen minutes of the game. Really

960
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:03,320
Speaker 2: just made it impossible for Cincinnati to do much, and

961
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:06,680
Speaker 2: Flacco really with any opportunity, didn't do much anyway. But

962
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 2: I mean, I think the worry over anything you take

963
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 2: here Cincinnati really would have liked this one, especially with

964
00:49:14,600 --> 00:49:16,719
Speaker 2: the Borough news that he could be coming back a

965
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 2: little bit earlier.

966
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:19,480
Speaker 4: But this is a Pittsburgh story to me.

967
00:49:21,120 --> 00:49:24,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, Pittsburgh's defense looked really good in this game. They've

968
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 3: looked really pretty good now the last few games. I

969
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:29,520
Speaker 3: know they lost last week, but the defense wasn't that

970
00:49:29,640 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 3: fault there really, And yeah, Aaron Rodgers definitely feels like

971
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:35,919
Speaker 3: the story. I will say this, though you said Aaron

972
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:38,280
Speaker 3: Rodgers has to be the story. I disagree. My friend

973
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 3: Kenneth Gainwell is the story. Kenneth Gainwell finding the end

974
00:49:42,600 --> 00:49:46,360
Speaker 3: zone plus four to seventy on the touchdown and seventy

975
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 3: five to one on the two touchdowns, so we got

976
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 3: them both receiving. We said that that was a possibility.

977
00:49:53,480 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 3: We got a little lucky. Warren went out for a while,

978
00:49:55,719 --> 00:49:58,080
Speaker 3: so we got a little extra run for Gainwell. But

979
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:01,040
Speaker 3: we'll take it. Seventy five to one. That's a fun one.

980
00:50:01,040 --> 00:50:03,200
Speaker 3: Shouts at Joe House over at the Ringer. I know

981
00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:05,759
Speaker 3: he was on that one as well, So glad to

982
00:50:05,800 --> 00:50:08,240
Speaker 3: be able to get one of those long shots. Obviously,

983
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:11,200
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers a bigger story here. I think they said

984
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:14,600
Speaker 3: a slight break in the left wrist, which look, I'm

985
00:50:14,640 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 3: forty two. That's basically the same as Rogers slight breaking

986
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:20,160
Speaker 3: the left wrist. Like I'm going on a workers coump.

987
00:50:20,239 --> 00:50:22,800
Speaker 3: I can't do my articles anymore like slight breaking the

988
00:50:22,880 --> 00:50:25,560
Speaker 3: left wrist. I'm pretty cooked over here. So I don't

989
00:50:25,600 --> 00:50:28,000
Speaker 3: know what we're gonna get out of Rogers going forward.

990
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:32,640
Speaker 3: I think in this game, though, it's kind of inflated

991
00:50:32,680 --> 00:50:36,320
Speaker 3: on the score line because Pittsburgh scores two defensive touchdowns,

992
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 3: which they count but are kind of not really something

993
00:50:39,480 --> 00:50:43,680
Speaker 3: to count on Pittsburgh. That's the only two turnovers Cincinnati

994
00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:45,879
Speaker 3: zero of two in the red zone. So that's it.

995
00:50:45,960 --> 00:50:49,160
Speaker 3: That's the game. They're basically close to even otherwise a

996
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 3: slight advantage Pittsburgh on the game, but you get a

997
00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:54,920
Speaker 3: blowout because those two turnovers go the other way for

998
00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:57,279
Speaker 3: six and then Cincinnati just can't score when they get

999
00:50:57,320 --> 00:51:01,200
Speaker 3: in there. A note that Jamar Chase and Jaylen the

1000
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:04,680
Speaker 3: Ramsey kind of got into a quote scuffle, and I

1001
00:51:04,680 --> 00:51:08,680
Speaker 3: believe Ramsey got ejected. Usually when a player gets ejected,

1002
00:51:08,719 --> 00:51:11,240
Speaker 3: they don't also get suspended because they kind of already

1003
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:13,600
Speaker 3: gotten their one game penalty. But I think it was

1004
00:51:13,640 --> 00:51:15,319
Speaker 3: in the second half, so something to keep an eye on.

1005
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:18,440
Speaker 3: We'll see if anything else comes out of that. I

1006
00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:20,600
Speaker 3: don't feel terrible about the Bengals out of this one.

1007
00:51:20,640 --> 00:51:23,080
Speaker 3: I know it's like a pretty ugly score line. But

1008
00:51:23,880 --> 00:51:27,879
Speaker 3: Burrow coming back soon, Trey Hendrickson coming back soon. It's

1009
00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:29,920
Speaker 3: a rough stretch coming out, but it's a rough stretch

1010
00:51:29,920 --> 00:51:33,480
Speaker 3: against teams that if the offense is firing, that they

1011
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:36,080
Speaker 3: can beat and that they can kind of control their

1012
00:51:36,120 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 3: destinies some With Pittsburgh on the other hand, six and

1013
00:51:39,080 --> 00:51:43,520
Speaker 3: four next week, Pittsburgh Chicago, I think that's the fraud off, right.

1014
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:46,520
Speaker 3: I think that's the matchup coming up that we're not

1015
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:48,480
Speaker 3: going to talk too much about Chicago. I'm trying to

1016
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 3: see in the comments here, mack Rivers says Chicago seven

1017
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 3: to three with a minus six point differential, So that's

1018
00:51:56,560 --> 00:51:59,600
Speaker 3: the Bears. These are the Steelers. I think that's the

1019
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:03,840
Speaker 3: fraud off next week. But after that, Steelers go still,

1020
00:52:04,160 --> 00:52:08,920
Speaker 3: Bill's Ravens, Dolphins who are kind of getting good now, Lions,

1021
00:52:09,480 --> 00:52:11,960
Speaker 3: Browns who are al is tough, and then Ravens again.

1022
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:14,960
Speaker 3: So Pittsburgh not out of the woods by any stretch,

1023
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:18,680
Speaker 3: especially if Rogers doesn't play, and let me just stop

1024
00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 3: anyone that's gonna go there. No, Rudolph is not an

1025
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:25,800
Speaker 3: upgrade over Aaron Rodgers. I know he looked good today

1026
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:29,960
Speaker 3: for half. It's the Bengals who don't have a defense. No,

1027
00:52:30,320 --> 00:52:33,479
Speaker 3: Mason Rudolph is not an upgrade over Aaron Rodgers. Don't

1028
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:37,120
Speaker 3: be ridiculous. If Rodgers is out a while, even for

1029
00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:41,440
Speaker 3: a short stretch, Pittsburgh definitely still is not safe for

1030
00:52:41,520 --> 00:52:44,240
Speaker 3: the playoffs or for that five hundred streak or anything else.

1031
00:52:45,080 --> 00:52:47,120
Speaker 3: This is not a dominant win. This is a win

1032
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:49,560
Speaker 3: that the defense got them over the line with good

1033
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:51,000
Speaker 3: play and then the two big plays.

1034
00:52:52,400 --> 00:52:52,560
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1035
00:52:52,600 --> 00:52:55,320
Speaker 2: I was just looking right now, right now to miss

1036
00:52:55,360 --> 00:53:00,879
Speaker 2: the playoffs. Steelers minus to ten. So this is like

1037
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:03,360
Speaker 2: you might be looking at them in division, kind of

1038
00:53:03,360 --> 00:53:05,960
Speaker 2: looking up at Baltimore, but Pittsburgh has a long way

1039
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:09,360
Speaker 2: to go, and that schedule, like you mentioned it, Chicago,

1040
00:53:09,840 --> 00:53:12,239
Speaker 2: I mean is what it is. Kind of go either way,

1041
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:16,400
Speaker 2: but Buffalo, Baltimore, Detroit. And then you say Cleveland's at Cleveland.

1042
00:53:16,680 --> 00:53:19,879
Speaker 2: We've seen what at Cleveland can do, especially to a

1043
00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:21,840
Speaker 2: you know, quarterback maybe coming off an injury.

1044
00:53:22,640 --> 00:53:23,960
Speaker 4: From Cincinnati standpoint.

1045
00:53:24,000 --> 00:53:26,720
Speaker 2: The only other mark I have here is they really

1046
00:53:26,760 --> 00:53:30,160
Speaker 2: can't win any game no matter how it's played. Like

1047
00:53:30,280 --> 00:53:33,040
Speaker 2: even when they play really well on offense, they don't win.

1048
00:53:33,480 --> 00:53:35,759
Speaker 2: Even when they do nothing on offense, they can't win.

1049
00:53:35,960 --> 00:53:38,239
Speaker 2: Like there's really nothing they can do to try to

1050
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:41,879
Speaker 2: figure that out, but very difficult. Nonetheless, Green Bay wins

1051
00:53:41,880 --> 00:53:44,200
Speaker 2: this game twenty seven to twenty Giants cover of the

1052
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:46,879
Speaker 2: seven and a half on the clothes, I actually forgot

1053
00:53:46,920 --> 00:53:47,399
Speaker 2: to write this down.

1054
00:53:47,560 --> 00:53:49,880
Speaker 4: Was the total in one let's see.

1055
00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:53,960
Speaker 3: Over forty two and a half.

1056
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:58,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, over forty two and a half to me.

1057
00:53:58,680 --> 00:54:01,239
Speaker 2: The injuries again which a lot of today, are the

1058
00:54:01,280 --> 00:54:04,359
Speaker 2: story here with Love and Jacobs. Love ends up coming

1059
00:54:04,400 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 2: back into the game. Jacob's possibly a bigger injury. I

1060
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:13,320
Speaker 2: think they're suspecting PCL sprain, so maybe some Emmanuel Wilson

1061
00:54:13,840 --> 00:54:18,200
Speaker 2: going forward, but this one an injury to jas Malik

1062
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:22,439
Speaker 2: Willis always does what Malik Willis does, which comes into

1063
00:54:22,440 --> 00:54:25,759
Speaker 2: the game two for two passing six yards, throws a touchdown,

1064
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:30,560
Speaker 2: one rush sixteen yards. Everything is just fine. Jordan Love

1065
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:32,360
Speaker 2: gone back into the game. Believe me, I've got it,

1066
00:54:32,680 --> 00:54:35,120
Speaker 2: And that seems to be every time something happens with

1067
00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:38,480
Speaker 2: green Bay, he seems to manage that offense really, really well.

1068
00:54:39,160 --> 00:54:42,120
Speaker 2: I know you were on Jacob's rush attempts in this one.

1069
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:44,879
Speaker 2: I mean everything was right of script. I mean green

1070
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:48,799
Speaker 2: Bay twenty six passes, twenty three runs. It's just the

1071
00:54:48,840 --> 00:54:51,880
Speaker 2: injuries and weird things went on in this game that

1072
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:55,120
Speaker 2: kind of took Green Bay out of rhythm. But nonetheless,

1073
00:54:55,600 --> 00:54:57,359
Speaker 2: green Bay gets the win and a win they should

1074
00:54:57,400 --> 00:54:59,959
Speaker 2: have gotten, and the Giants get the cover after letting

1075
00:55:00,120 --> 00:55:00,560
Speaker 2: they will go.

1076
00:55:02,080 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, we get a little dead cap bounced there. Jamis

1077
00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:06,120
Speaker 3: had them in it all the way down to the

1078
00:55:06,200 --> 00:55:08,560
Speaker 3: end until, of course, as all Jamis games end with

1079
00:55:08,640 --> 00:55:11,080
Speaker 3: an interception in the end zone. So that's kind of

1080
00:55:11,120 --> 00:55:14,000
Speaker 3: how this went. But not really a very pretty result

1081
00:55:14,080 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 3: for the Packers. Just another one of those where their

1082
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:19,000
Speaker 3: big favorites and don't cover like they continue to do.

1083
00:55:19,400 --> 00:55:22,319
Speaker 3: They get the win, but just continue to be some

1084
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:27,520
Speaker 3: warning signs there. The Jacobs injury. Look, I'm team running

1085
00:55:27,560 --> 00:55:30,560
Speaker 3: backs don't matter. But Tucker Craft is already out. We

1086
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:32,960
Speaker 3: said he was the most important offensive player other than

1087
00:55:33,040 --> 00:55:36,200
Speaker 3: Jordan Love. The offensive lines getting some injuries has never

1088
00:55:36,280 --> 00:55:40,080
Speaker 3: quite been right this year. Now, Jacobs. He's really important

1089
00:55:40,120 --> 00:55:42,240
Speaker 3: to that team as much as they run the football

1090
00:55:42,280 --> 00:55:45,600
Speaker 3: like he is their identity there. And so we did

1091
00:55:45,640 --> 00:55:49,320
Speaker 3: before the season we did a ranking of offensive weapons

1092
00:55:49,400 --> 00:55:52,040
Speaker 3: or skill players as you call them. I did the

1093
00:55:52,120 --> 00:55:54,759
Speaker 3: update because I was curious. You take Jacobs out, you

1094
00:55:54,800 --> 00:55:56,839
Speaker 3: take Craft out. And by the way, the receivers are

1095
00:55:56,880 --> 00:56:00,719
Speaker 3: still not healthy, Jayden Reed is out, the Golden is

1096
00:56:00,800 --> 00:56:02,560
Speaker 3: kind of in and out of the lineup, and they're

1097
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:06,000
Speaker 3: not really producing as it is the Packers if Jacobs

1098
00:56:06,080 --> 00:56:08,440
Speaker 3: is out for the foreseeable future, I have the Packers

1099
00:56:08,480 --> 00:56:12,080
Speaker 3: bottom five on skill position rankings now for a team

1100
00:56:12,120 --> 00:56:14,080
Speaker 3: that's supposed to be a Super Bowl contender, And I

1101
00:56:14,120 --> 00:56:17,480
Speaker 3: think right now I have serious concerns about this team.

1102
00:56:17,760 --> 00:56:19,440
Speaker 3: And I've been a team that's really been in on

1103
00:56:19,480 --> 00:56:22,520
Speaker 3: them all the way along. But they are six three

1104
00:56:22,520 --> 00:56:25,160
Speaker 3: and one. You got the Bears and Niners, both a

1105
00:56:25,160 --> 00:56:28,520
Speaker 3: bit fraudulent but winning games and pushing, and the Panthers maybe,

1106
00:56:29,040 --> 00:56:32,120
Speaker 3: and they now just are running out of options on offense.

1107
00:56:32,560 --> 00:56:36,360
Speaker 3: And I will say this though, Matt Lafleur gets a

1108
00:56:36,360 --> 00:56:38,279
Speaker 3: lot of crap, and I think he's not done a

1109
00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:41,879
Speaker 3: great job this year at times, calling as the better team.

1110
00:56:42,320 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 3: I'm a little intrigued by Matt Lafleur as more of

1111
00:56:45,600 --> 00:56:49,640
Speaker 3: an underdog script. He seems to want to play defense

1112
00:56:49,719 --> 00:56:53,279
Speaker 3: and conservative football and win games that way. His team

1113
00:56:53,360 --> 00:56:56,360
Speaker 3: is kind of trending toward being that team, and it

1114
00:56:56,480 --> 00:56:58,680
Speaker 3: might accidentally set up the right way for him. I

1115
00:56:58,680 --> 00:57:01,799
Speaker 3: could kind of see it turning backwards into what worked

1116
00:57:01,800 --> 00:57:06,320
Speaker 3: out for him. I can't see them being the team

1117
00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:08,279
Speaker 3: that we all wanted them to be at those point.

1118
00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:11,719
Speaker 3: It just feels like we're like one more injury or

1119
00:57:11,800 --> 00:57:14,839
Speaker 3: maybe even Jordan Love you mentioned, got hurt. What if

1120
00:57:14,880 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 3: that shoulder isn't right. What if we get like an

1121
00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:19,240
Speaker 3: MRI back tomorrow and he's out a little bit. And

1122
00:57:19,280 --> 00:57:21,600
Speaker 3: we've seen Milik Willis keep things afloat a little bit

1123
00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:24,320
Speaker 3: with Matt lafler But I feel like we're like one

1124
00:57:24,320 --> 00:57:26,560
Speaker 3: more injury away from calling this one of those years

1125
00:57:26,600 --> 00:57:29,760
Speaker 3: from hell from Green Bay. It's really teetering for them.

1126
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:32,400
Speaker 2: Well, as you say that they are the favorites to

1127
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:35,400
Speaker 2: win the NFC North at the current moment, they have

1128
00:57:35,640 --> 00:57:39,360
Speaker 2: three straight games against NFC North opponents, at home against

1129
00:57:39,360 --> 00:57:42,240
Speaker 2: the Vikings at Detroit on Thanksgiving, and then at home

1130
00:57:42,280 --> 00:57:46,200
Speaker 2: against the Bears, so literally the next three weeks everything

1131
00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:48,320
Speaker 2: in front of them, as they are favorites to win the.

1132
00:57:48,280 --> 00:57:49,200
Speaker 4: Division at the moment.

1133
00:57:50,000 --> 00:57:52,640
Speaker 2: The one trend kind of going on with Green Bay

1134
00:57:52,680 --> 00:57:55,640
Speaker 2: I put out earlier. They are now zero and six

1135
00:57:55,840 --> 00:57:58,920
Speaker 2: against the spread this year as a four point favorite

1136
00:57:58,960 --> 00:58:01,840
Speaker 2: or higher, first team to do that through eleven weeks

1137
00:58:01,880 --> 00:58:07,160
Speaker 2: since nineteen ninety seven. Packers also did it eight and

1138
00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:09,720
Speaker 2: one against the spread that year, and as of now,

1139
00:58:09,800 --> 00:58:12,840
Speaker 2: green Bay minus six and a half at home against

1140
00:58:12,880 --> 00:58:16,240
Speaker 2: the Vikings next week, so we will get that scenario

1141
00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:19,200
Speaker 2: once again. Anything else on this one, this one felt

1142
00:58:19,200 --> 00:58:21,600
Speaker 2: like a little weird. I felt like the Giants had

1143
00:58:21,640 --> 00:58:27,640
Speaker 2: opportunities the same old James this game. I just love

1144
00:58:27,720 --> 00:58:30,680
Speaker 2: him to death. He does everything possible to keep you

1145
00:58:30,800 --> 00:58:33,280
Speaker 2: right around and you look all over the box score,

1146
00:58:33,320 --> 00:58:36,000
Speaker 2: like really did a great job seven or fourteen on

1147
00:58:36,040 --> 00:58:38,080
Speaker 2: third down three or fourteen and fourth down three or

1148
00:58:38,120 --> 00:58:39,919
Speaker 2: four just really really good.

1149
00:58:40,280 --> 00:58:41,560
Speaker 4: But kind of where you end up.

1150
00:58:42,040 --> 00:58:45,320
Speaker 3: Here's my last comment on this. I don't know if

1151
00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:47,440
Speaker 3: this was just me growing up. Growing up, You're like

1152
00:58:47,560 --> 00:58:50,040
Speaker 3: you're playing the football like out like in a recess

1153
00:58:50,160 --> 00:58:52,280
Speaker 3: or playing with your buddies out on the lawn. Did

1154
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:54,640
Speaker 3: you ever have like an all time quarterback, like just

1155
00:58:54,680 --> 00:58:58,000
Speaker 3: the guy that played quarterback on both teams. Jamis Winston

1156
00:58:58,040 --> 00:59:01,320
Speaker 3: should be all time quarterback. He's not roster anymore. He's

1157
00:59:01,400 --> 00:59:04,439
Speaker 3: just done whatever team needs a quarter like Jordan loves out,

1158
00:59:04,520 --> 00:59:06,720
Speaker 3: Jameis Winston, you're a Packer for next week. We need

1159
00:59:06,760 --> 00:59:09,440
Speaker 3: you to play quarterback for the Packers. You're all time quarterback.

1160
00:59:09,440 --> 00:59:11,480
Speaker 3: Where's he gonna put you in where we need you?

1161
00:59:11,560 --> 00:59:14,360
Speaker 3: Burrows out? Great? You play quarterback over here for a while.

1162
00:59:14,600 --> 00:59:16,720
Speaker 3: James just makes games super fun. I think you should

1163
00:59:16,760 --> 00:59:18,040
Speaker 3: be all time quarterback from now on.

1164
00:59:18,960 --> 00:59:21,000
Speaker 4: See, I think I've heard that from a few people.

1165
00:59:21,080 --> 00:59:23,400
Speaker 2: I kind of just won him for fourth downs, like

1166
00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:26,440
Speaker 2: anytime that's fourth and ten. I kind of want to

1167
00:59:26,520 --> 00:59:28,320
Speaker 2: just fly him in and pause the game.

1168
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:32,240
Speaker 3: But what about that we abolish on side kicks and

1169
00:59:32,280 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 3: you just have a fourth and eight day be with

1170
00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:35,040
Speaker 3: that quarterback?

1171
00:59:35,800 --> 00:59:39,040
Speaker 4: Hey go the Jamis kick instead? Understood? All right?

1172
00:59:39,920 --> 00:59:43,880
Speaker 2: Ravens and Browns. Ravens win this game twenty three sixteen.

1173
00:59:44,040 --> 00:59:48,040
Speaker 2: Cleveland covers the seven and a half total goes over

1174
00:59:48,160 --> 00:59:51,080
Speaker 2: thirty seven and a half. Story of this game was

1175
00:59:51,560 --> 00:59:53,640
Speaker 2: just Baltimore getting tight in the red zone to me,

1176
00:59:53,840 --> 00:59:57,240
Speaker 2: one of four, five of thirteen on third down, Like

1177
00:59:57,320 --> 01:00:00,000
Speaker 2: they just kind of allowed Cleveland to stay around, which

1178
01:00:00,000 --> 01:00:02,280
Speaker 2: which is pretty much the recipe.

1179
01:00:01,840 --> 01:00:04,400
Speaker 4: For what Cleveland does. When good teams go.

1180
01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:07,760
Speaker 2: To travel to the dog bound, it seems the defense

1181
01:00:07,880 --> 01:00:12,440
Speaker 2: just really disrupts and really keeps these games relatively close.

1182
01:00:12,480 --> 01:00:15,200
Speaker 2: But this is what I'm talking about about, when Baltimore

1183
01:00:15,240 --> 01:00:17,680
Speaker 2: getting down the field and kind of just stalling. So

1184
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:20,440
Speaker 2: here we are a bunch of drives. They one drive,

1185
01:00:20,480 --> 01:00:23,280
Speaker 2: they ended the Cleveland seven, they get to the three,

1186
01:00:23,720 --> 01:00:25,800
Speaker 2: end up kicking a field goal. They get to the

1187
01:00:25,840 --> 01:00:28,520
Speaker 2: Cleveland thirty two, they end up punting, They get to

1188
01:00:28,560 --> 01:00:29,800
Speaker 2: the Cleveland five, they end.

1189
01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:31,720
Speaker 4: Up with the field goal, They get to the Cleveland

1190
01:00:31,720 --> 01:00:33,320
Speaker 4: twenty five, they end up with the field goal.

1191
01:00:33,400 --> 01:00:36,800
Speaker 2: Like, tons of opportunities for this to be a you know,

1192
01:00:36,960 --> 01:00:40,920
Speaker 2: ten point, fourteen point, even twenty point game, which just

1193
01:00:40,960 --> 01:00:44,520
Speaker 2: got Baltimore in a real heap of trouble and kind

1194
01:00:44,560 --> 01:00:46,600
Speaker 2: of just relied on Derrick Henry to get them out

1195
01:00:46,640 --> 01:00:46,800
Speaker 2: of it.

1196
01:00:48,040 --> 01:00:51,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, Cleveland's offense didn't do anything this entire game, so

1197
01:00:51,440 --> 01:00:55,439
Speaker 3: Baltimore had to do the least possible, and frankly they did.

1198
01:00:55,520 --> 01:00:58,800
Speaker 3: They did the least possible. They did just enough to

1199
01:00:58,800 --> 01:01:00,440
Speaker 3: get the job done. One of five four in the

1200
01:01:00,480 --> 01:01:03,720
Speaker 3: red zone, three to one turnovers really is kind of

1201
01:01:03,720 --> 01:01:06,560
Speaker 3: we get the job done. But I feel like we're

1202
01:01:06,560 --> 01:01:10,160
Speaker 3: bearing the lead here. From a betting standpoint, both if

1203
01:01:10,160 --> 01:01:13,360
Speaker 3: you bet Brown's, you got over by the hook there

1204
01:01:13,400 --> 01:01:15,920
Speaker 3: and if you bet the over you got in depending

1205
01:01:15,920 --> 01:01:17,240
Speaker 3: on the line. It was thirty eight and a half

1206
01:01:17,280 --> 01:01:20,200
Speaker 3: thirty seven and a half, you both both lines ended

1207
01:01:20,280 --> 01:01:21,800
Speaker 3: up just kind of coming in on the hook there.

1208
01:01:22,080 --> 01:01:26,880
Speaker 3: But the other thing, Schadur Sanders ah real professional football field,

1209
01:01:27,240 --> 01:01:29,960
Speaker 3: and boy did he look like Shadur Sanders? And by that,

1210
01:01:30,040 --> 01:01:33,000
Speaker 3: I mean did you watch the preseason because it didn't

1211
01:01:33,000 --> 01:01:35,280
Speaker 3: go great for our guy and it looked a lot

1212
01:01:35,320 --> 01:01:37,760
Speaker 3: like that today. Did you see the final stat line

1213
01:01:37,800 --> 01:01:44,680
Speaker 3: for Shuadar Sanders four of sixteen passing today for two sacks,

1214
01:01:45,040 --> 01:01:48,920
Speaker 3: one interception, minus point sixty seven EPA per play and

1215
01:01:49,000 --> 01:01:52,840
Speaker 3: minus thirty five completion over expected. And guess what Dylan

1216
01:01:52,840 --> 01:01:56,360
Speaker 3: Gabriel is in concussion protocol? And we pretty much never

1217
01:01:56,440 --> 01:02:00,600
Speaker 3: see quarterbacks clear from Sunday to the next week. Get ready,

1218
01:02:00,680 --> 01:02:04,600
Speaker 3: baby Shooter. Sanders first start in the NFL on the

1219
01:02:04,720 --> 01:02:08,080
Speaker 3: road next week. There's your spoiler alert. We're coming back

1220
01:02:08,080 --> 01:02:09,000
Speaker 3: to that one. I'm a hot Reid.

1221
01:02:10,280 --> 01:02:13,200
Speaker 2: And not only that, let's let's send them to Vegas

1222
01:02:13,920 --> 01:02:16,200
Speaker 2: for the first one. That's gonna be. What a ride

1223
01:02:16,200 --> 01:02:19,600
Speaker 2: that is against against Max Crosby and the Raiders. That

1224
01:02:19,640 --> 01:02:21,040
Speaker 2: should be We need.

1225
01:02:21,760 --> 01:02:25,840
Speaker 3: Jamis in the Raiders, James, Raiders and Derek. That's the

1226
01:02:25,920 --> 01:02:27,920
Speaker 3: game we all need to watch next week.

1227
01:02:28,800 --> 01:02:32,600
Speaker 2: All right, Well, Cleveland, it's a Raiders, forty nine Ers

1228
01:02:32,680 --> 01:02:35,520
Speaker 2: and Titans coming up. I think the better story obviously

1229
01:02:35,560 --> 01:02:38,640
Speaker 2: the Ravens just keep winning. And the thing that would

1230
01:02:38,640 --> 01:02:41,080
Speaker 2: be great is this. So when they started two and five,

1231
01:02:41,160 --> 01:02:43,240
Speaker 2: they needed to go ten and zero to go over

1232
01:02:43,280 --> 01:02:47,360
Speaker 2: their win total. Well, only six wins left. All right,

1233
01:02:47,440 --> 01:02:50,520
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go score by score here, So Bears win

1234
01:02:50,600 --> 01:02:53,760
Speaker 2: the game nineteen seventeen cover plus two and a half

1235
01:02:53,800 --> 01:02:56,520
Speaker 2: on the road, total under forty seven and a half.

1236
01:02:57,400 --> 01:03:00,200
Speaker 2: I actually forgot to write down who tweeted this out,

1237
01:03:00,240 --> 01:03:03,280
Speaker 2: but it's super viral. If if you check it out

1238
01:03:03,280 --> 01:03:04,600
Speaker 2: on Twitter, you will get it. But this is the

1239
01:03:04,600 --> 01:03:08,520
Speaker 2: stat that I had found. Kevin O'Connell called sixteen pass

1240
01:03:08,560 --> 01:03:11,200
Speaker 2: plays this season on third and fourth on short three

1241
01:03:11,320 --> 01:03:14,160
Speaker 2: or less with JJ McCarthy zero completions.

1242
01:03:14,280 --> 01:03:15,360
Speaker 4: I'll say that one more time.

1243
01:03:16,320 --> 01:03:20,680
Speaker 2: Vikings sixteen pass plays this season on third and fourth

1244
01:03:20,720 --> 01:03:25,320
Speaker 2: and short three or less JJ McCarthy a quarterback, zero completions.

1245
01:03:25,600 --> 01:03:28,680
Speaker 2: I think we all watched this game today and I

1246
01:03:28,800 --> 01:03:32,720
Speaker 2: wasn't comfortable with Kleb Williams or JJ McCarthy the entire time.

1247
01:03:32,840 --> 01:03:37,840
Speaker 2: But Chicago's defense plus sixteen on turnovers this year, which

1248
01:03:37,880 --> 01:03:42,400
Speaker 2: is crazy differential through ten games. Fifteen interceptions on defense,

1249
01:03:43,840 --> 01:03:45,120
Speaker 2: just wild stuff out there.

1250
01:03:45,120 --> 01:03:45,400
Speaker 4: I think.

1251
01:03:45,400 --> 01:03:47,439
Speaker 2: The thing with the Bears, though they are now four

1252
01:03:47,440 --> 01:03:50,440
Speaker 2: and three straight up this year, when the opponent leads

1253
01:03:50,440 --> 01:03:53,360
Speaker 2: by four plus points, not that crazy, right, We talked

1254
01:03:53,360 --> 01:03:54,040
Speaker 2: about this earlier.

1255
01:03:54,080 --> 01:03:57,520
Speaker 4: Just four plus points. Well, they had not had a year.

1256
01:03:57,360 --> 01:03:59,880
Speaker 2: Where they were over five hundred like that since twenty ten,

1257
01:04:00,560 --> 01:04:03,160
Speaker 2: and they were twenty five and eighty six in those

1258
01:04:03,200 --> 01:04:06,320
Speaker 2: games prior four and three this year. So definitely a

1259
01:04:06,400 --> 01:04:10,680
Speaker 2: turnaround for Chicago, all right. San Francisco Arizona. San Francisco

1260
01:04:10,720 --> 01:04:12,960
Speaker 2: wins forty one, twenty two covers, minus three and a

1261
01:04:13,000 --> 01:04:15,760
Speaker 2: half on the road, total over forty eight and a half.

1262
01:04:16,200 --> 01:04:17,920
Speaker 2: What to take away, Well, the only thing to take

1263
01:04:17,960 --> 01:04:21,360
Speaker 2: going from this one, Jacoby Brissett forty seven of fifty

1264
01:04:21,480 --> 01:04:26,520
Speaker 2: seven passing. San Francisco's pass defense is just goddamn atrocious.

1265
01:04:26,720 --> 01:04:28,800
Speaker 2: I just beg you to go look at the pass

1266
01:04:28,880 --> 01:04:30,400
Speaker 2: chart for Persett.

1267
01:04:29,960 --> 01:04:32,120
Speaker 4: And this one. It is ridiculous.

1268
01:04:33,080 --> 01:04:37,120
Speaker 2: Next quarterbacks to face San Francisco coming up, Bryce Young,

1269
01:04:37,920 --> 01:04:45,320
Speaker 2: Shador Sanders, cam Ward, Danny Dimes, Caleb Williams, and Sam Darnold.

1270
01:04:45,480 --> 01:04:50,240
Speaker 2: That is just that feels both like a gauntlet and

1271
01:04:50,280 --> 01:04:53,760
Speaker 2: beatable based off the names this year, but very strange.

1272
01:04:54,400 --> 01:04:55,000
Speaker 4: And then I'll tell you.

1273
01:04:55,040 --> 01:04:57,840
Speaker 2: I'll tell you about the Cardinals zero to four straight

1274
01:04:57,920 --> 01:05:01,400
Speaker 2: up against the NFC West, four in eighteen in their

1275
01:05:01,480 --> 01:05:05,840
Speaker 2: last twenty two versus their own division, absolutely goddamn terrible.

1276
01:05:06,520 --> 01:05:11,920
Speaker 2: And one more here, Houston beats Tennessee sixteen thirteen, Tennessee

1277
01:05:11,960 --> 01:05:14,040
Speaker 2: covers plus five and a half at home total under

1278
01:05:14,080 --> 01:05:17,160
Speaker 2: thirty seven and a half. Nothing more Tennessee Titans right

1279
01:05:17,200 --> 01:05:22,200
Speaker 2: now than breaking a fourteen game streak, having fewer touchdowns

1280
01:05:22,240 --> 01:05:25,720
Speaker 2: than your opponent, the longest streak since the nineteen seventy Bucks,

1281
01:05:26,040 --> 01:05:29,680
Speaker 2: and ending it one to one against a team where

1282
01:05:29,960 --> 01:05:32,840
Speaker 2: you go down the field with three minutes left two

1283
01:05:33,080 --> 01:05:36,120
Speaker 2: score your first touchdown and then losing by a field goal.

1284
01:05:36,160 --> 01:05:40,200
Speaker 2: Basically at the buzzer. Tennessee ends up covering back to

1285
01:05:40,280 --> 01:05:43,240
Speaker 2: back games for the first time since Week two of

1286
01:05:43,360 --> 01:05:46,880
Speaker 2: twenty twenty three. Twenty twenty three, last time they covered

1287
01:05:47,160 --> 01:05:52,000
Speaker 2: back to back games ridiculous, and then Madrid this morning

1288
01:05:52,600 --> 01:05:56,760
Speaker 2: Miami sixteen thirteen final cover minus two and a half

1289
01:05:56,760 --> 01:05:59,600
Speaker 2: on the close, total under forty seven and a half.

1290
01:06:00,920 --> 01:06:02,920
Speaker 2: I don't know if anyone remembers this, but I'm going

1291
01:06:02,960 --> 01:06:05,040
Speaker 2: to tell you because this was from the AP and

1292
01:06:05,200 --> 01:06:08,160
Speaker 2: everyone was talking about this play call. But Dolphins end

1293
01:06:08,280 --> 01:06:11,240
Speaker 2: up being the second team since at least two thousand

1294
01:06:11,640 --> 01:06:13,360
Speaker 2: to go for it on fourth and goal from the

1295
01:06:13,400 --> 01:06:15,880
Speaker 2: one in the last two minutes of a tie game.

1296
01:06:16,280 --> 01:06:18,560
Speaker 2: Bengals did it in Week seventeen of twenty twenty one

1297
01:06:18,640 --> 01:06:21,280
Speaker 2: versus the Chiefs, got the first down by penalty, took

1298
01:06:21,280 --> 01:06:23,320
Speaker 2: a knee, kicked the game winning field goal.

1299
01:06:23,400 --> 01:06:25,400
Speaker 4: That is not how it worked out.

1300
01:06:25,280 --> 01:06:28,240
Speaker 2: For Miami, but they still figured out a way to

1301
01:06:28,320 --> 01:06:30,400
Speaker 2: get there in the end. This is the great thing.

1302
01:06:30,400 --> 01:06:32,520
Speaker 2: Though started one and six, three and one in the

1303
01:06:32,640 --> 01:06:35,000
Speaker 2: last four. We had talked about this last week. They

1304
01:06:35,040 --> 01:06:38,240
Speaker 2: were eighty to one to make the playoffs now down

1305
01:06:38,320 --> 01:06:41,400
Speaker 2: to fifty to one. But the thing that's this New

1306
01:06:41,520 --> 01:06:45,200
Speaker 2: Orleans and the Jets coming up. So that sounds good,

1307
01:06:45,240 --> 01:06:48,000
Speaker 2: But Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Tampa, and New England to end the

1308
01:06:48,080 --> 01:06:52,440
Speaker 2: year feels like too high of a hill to climb.

1309
01:06:52,720 --> 01:06:56,200
Speaker 2: Here's the other one. I tweeted this out ridiculous. Washington

1310
01:06:56,280 --> 01:06:59,200
Speaker 2: since two thousand has had a win total of eight

1311
01:06:59,320 --> 01:07:02,360
Speaker 2: or more nine times. After the loss today, they are

1312
01:07:02,360 --> 01:07:06,600
Speaker 2: officially nine to oh to the under. In those nine seasons,

1313
01:07:06,640 --> 01:07:09,000
Speaker 2: they had a win total of eight or more. Basically,

1314
01:07:09,080 --> 01:07:13,840
Speaker 2: Washington hasn't exceeded expectations in a real season since before

1315
01:07:13,880 --> 01:07:17,600
Speaker 2: two thousand. It's been a long long time. Let's now

1316
01:07:17,640 --> 01:07:28,919
Speaker 2: go to Monday Night football. The line in this game

1317
01:07:28,960 --> 01:07:31,000
Speaker 2: as I'm looking at it now, Dallas minus three and

1318
01:07:31,040 --> 01:07:34,840
Speaker 2: a half on the road in the Raiders, the total

1319
01:07:34,960 --> 01:07:38,960
Speaker 2: sitting at fifty. I mean Dak just in this spot,

1320
01:07:39,000 --> 01:07:41,400
Speaker 2: I mean Monday Night Football again with the Cowboys. But

1321
01:07:41,520 --> 01:07:43,400
Speaker 2: he is four and oh straight up and against the

1322
01:07:43,400 --> 01:07:46,520
Speaker 2: spread on the road on Monday Night Football, covering by

1323
01:07:46,800 --> 01:07:49,400
Speaker 2: nine points per game. And on the other side, Gino

1324
01:07:49,480 --> 01:07:51,840
Speaker 2: has been terrible since the beginning of twenty twenty four,

1325
01:07:52,240 --> 01:07:55,160
Speaker 2: Ginos started six games in primetime. This team is one

1326
01:07:55,240 --> 01:07:58,120
Speaker 2: in five straight up and against the spread, and overall

1327
01:07:58,360 --> 01:08:00,960
Speaker 2: he has started eighteen games in time at a four

1328
01:08:01,040 --> 01:08:05,040
Speaker 2: and fourteen record. I mean, what is how are you

1329
01:08:05,200 --> 01:08:08,160
Speaker 2: looking at this game with two real I mean the

1330
01:08:08,200 --> 01:08:10,920
Speaker 2: thing that stuff is Dallas still fighting. I think the

1331
01:08:11,040 --> 01:08:13,760
Speaker 2: Raiders are toasto, but there's gonna be some fight for

1332
01:08:13,840 --> 01:08:14,400
Speaker 2: Pete right.

1333
01:08:15,040 --> 01:08:17,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, It's hard to get a read on what to

1334
01:08:17,600 --> 01:08:20,160
Speaker 3: expect out of this game, I think too, Like I'm

1335
01:08:20,280 --> 01:08:23,360
Speaker 3: seriously on a serious note. It's the first game for

1336
01:08:23,520 --> 01:08:26,679
Speaker 3: Dallas out of the bye week after Marshawn Neeland's death

1337
01:08:26,720 --> 01:08:29,200
Speaker 3: as well, So good point. What are the emotions going

1338
01:08:29,280 --> 01:08:31,160
Speaker 3: to be on that team? We don't really know. I

1339
01:08:31,840 --> 01:08:34,519
Speaker 3: would encourage some amount of caution coming into this game,

1340
01:08:34,560 --> 01:08:37,080
Speaker 3: just as it better, because it's hard sometimes to know

1341
01:08:37,160 --> 01:08:39,599
Speaker 3: what that looks like. But we're gonna still play. We're

1342
01:08:39,600 --> 01:08:42,559
Speaker 3: gonna still find some angles, Martes. Danny in the common says,

1343
01:08:42,560 --> 01:08:44,960
Speaker 3: what's up? Can we get some good props for Cowboys Raiders?

1344
01:08:45,200 --> 01:08:48,920
Speaker 3: Thanks for sticking around, Martes. I think that Dallas is

1345
01:08:48,920 --> 01:08:51,639
Speaker 3: the better team here. I would actually have Dallas more

1346
01:08:51,760 --> 01:08:54,600
Speaker 3: like five point favorites here, But again it's tough to

1347
01:08:54,600 --> 01:08:57,320
Speaker 3: get too excited about that margin for me, and too

1348
01:08:57,360 --> 01:09:01,400
Speaker 3: excited in an emotional game here, and actually the trends

1349
01:09:01,400 --> 01:09:04,360
Speaker 3: to me look under. This is another one of those

1350
01:09:04,439 --> 01:09:06,840
Speaker 3: double by games. I remember we talk about the double

1351
01:09:06,880 --> 01:09:10,280
Speaker 3: by teams when you're rested. If the totals forty or higher,

1352
01:09:10,520 --> 01:09:13,400
Speaker 3: sixty four percent to the under. If it's forty six

1353
01:09:13,439 --> 01:09:16,479
Speaker 3: and above, seventy four percent to the under, this total

1354
01:09:16,520 --> 01:09:19,800
Speaker 3: is up basically about around fifty. So it does look

1355
01:09:20,000 --> 01:09:23,240
Speaker 3: counterintuited to what you think like maybe an undergame. Raiders

1356
01:09:23,240 --> 01:09:26,120
Speaker 3: are six and three to the under. Primetime under is

1357
01:09:26,160 --> 01:09:30,040
Speaker 3: not Thursday Night since twenty nineteen, sixty one percent same

1358
01:09:30,120 --> 01:09:33,040
Speaker 3: this year as well, So a lot of under trends.

1359
01:09:33,320 --> 01:09:36,560
Speaker 3: If you want to kind of go counterintuitive and counterculture,

1360
01:09:36,600 --> 01:09:41,360
Speaker 3: maybe lean maybe under fifty. There Dallas's defense, I know

1361
01:09:41,400 --> 01:09:43,719
Speaker 3: what we thought, but they did trade for Quinn Williams.

1362
01:09:43,800 --> 01:09:47,000
Speaker 3: This is his debut also, so maybe that helps them

1363
01:09:47,240 --> 01:09:50,559
Speaker 3: be like the tenth worst defense instead of the object

1364
01:09:50,600 --> 01:09:53,479
Speaker 3: awful defense. And the Raiders haven't scored all year, they

1365
01:09:53,520 --> 01:09:57,160
Speaker 3: don't have a blocking, they don't get receivers, so maybe

1366
01:09:57,280 --> 01:10:00,880
Speaker 3: the Cowboys can hang a little bit Raiders defense been

1367
01:10:00,920 --> 01:10:03,639
Speaker 3: pretty solid this year, like league average or better most

1368
01:10:03,640 --> 01:10:06,920
Speaker 3: of the season, so I would lean under as far

1369
01:10:06,960 --> 01:10:09,280
Speaker 3: as my prop on the game. I'm gonna not play

1370
01:10:09,320 --> 01:10:12,799
Speaker 3: a Sider total personally for some of the reasons of uncertainty,

1371
01:10:12,880 --> 01:10:16,200
Speaker 3: I said, but Dallas has allowed so far at least

1372
01:10:16,240 --> 01:10:18,479
Speaker 3: twenty two to every single game, So if the Raiders

1373
01:10:18,520 --> 01:10:20,800
Speaker 3: are ever going to score, they should score something here.

1374
01:10:21,080 --> 01:10:24,960
Speaker 3: And if they do score, it's probably Ashton genty right,

1375
01:10:25,040 --> 01:10:27,479
Speaker 3: like the rookie is the guy scoring for them. He's

1376
01:10:27,520 --> 01:10:29,799
Speaker 3: got all four of their rushing touchdowns on the season,

1377
01:10:30,160 --> 01:10:33,600
Speaker 3: he's got three receiving. That's three of their eleven receiving

1378
01:10:34,000 --> 01:10:37,719
Speaker 3: So overall that's fifteen touchdowns for the Raiders seven for gents.

1379
01:10:37,720 --> 01:10:40,320
Speaker 3: And I know it doesn't feel like he's been that good,

1380
01:10:40,680 --> 01:10:43,320
Speaker 3: but that's half basically of their scores on the season.

1381
01:10:43,800 --> 01:10:47,120
Speaker 3: Last six games Dallas against the running back one on

1382
01:10:47,160 --> 01:10:49,960
Speaker 3: the other team seventy nine yards or more. Five of

1383
01:10:50,000 --> 01:10:52,800
Speaker 3: the last six average one hundred and one yards a game,

1384
01:10:53,160 --> 01:10:54,640
Speaker 3: and they have a lot of running back touchdown in

1385
01:10:54,680 --> 01:10:58,080
Speaker 3: seven to nine games this season, So I think, if anything,

1386
01:10:58,600 --> 01:11:02,360
Speaker 3: maybe a national TV breakout spot for the rookie Ashton Genty.

1387
01:11:02,840 --> 01:11:05,240
Speaker 3: I like him for the touchdown minus one forty your

1388
01:11:05,240 --> 01:11:07,720
Speaker 3: best number you can find, and I'm gonna sprinkle two

1389
01:11:07,760 --> 01:11:09,680
Speaker 3: on Rookie of the Year. I still think Rookie of

1390
01:11:09,680 --> 01:11:12,559
Speaker 3: the Year is open. Tat McMillan had a big game today,

1391
01:11:12,840 --> 01:11:15,160
Speaker 3: but he's got a long way to go. Like Buka

1392
01:11:15,320 --> 01:11:18,280
Speaker 3: kind of down over the last month. Jackson Dart is out.

1393
01:11:18,320 --> 01:11:20,839
Speaker 3: We don't know how much he's gonna play. It doesn't

1394
01:11:20,920 --> 01:11:23,280
Speaker 3: feel like we have a clear Rookie of the Year winner.

1395
01:11:23,640 --> 01:11:25,800
Speaker 3: And I know Genty he was the favorite coming into

1396
01:11:25,840 --> 01:11:29,040
Speaker 3: the year. He hasn't done much, but is not done much.

1397
01:11:29,160 --> 01:11:31,880
Speaker 3: Is on pace right now for thirteen hundred combined yards

1398
01:11:31,880 --> 01:11:35,400
Speaker 3: and fourteen scores. That's not terrible for not doing much.

1399
01:11:35,760 --> 01:11:37,920
Speaker 3: And if you get a good game against the Cowboys,

1400
01:11:38,240 --> 01:11:40,479
Speaker 3: you still get the Chargers. Look what they did today

1401
01:11:40,600 --> 01:11:43,160
Speaker 3: against the run. You get the Giants coming up the

1402
01:11:43,200 --> 01:11:45,879
Speaker 3: worst team against the run. If he kind of pushes

1403
01:11:45,920 --> 01:11:48,320
Speaker 3: a little bit further, we might be looking at like

1404
01:11:48,680 --> 01:11:52,599
Speaker 3: sixteen hundred yards eighteen twenty scores on the season. That

1405
01:11:52,640 --> 01:11:55,439
Speaker 3: feels like Rookie of the Year. Genty's fifty to one

1406
01:11:55,600 --> 01:11:57,400
Speaker 3: right now at some bucks. So I'm gonna take that

1407
01:11:57,720 --> 01:11:59,920
Speaker 3: as a Monday Night play on top of the top

1408
01:12:00,400 --> 01:12:02,200
Speaker 3: bat for Gent minus one forty.

1409
01:12:03,000 --> 01:12:05,360
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna pile on the prop that I gave

1410
01:12:05,400 --> 01:12:08,000
Speaker 2: out on the favorites. At least one of them that

1411
01:12:08,080 --> 01:12:10,200
Speaker 2: kind of works into this is. I like Gent over

1412
01:12:10,240 --> 01:12:12,880
Speaker 2: sixteen and a half receiving yards. He is out there

1413
01:12:12,920 --> 01:12:16,280
Speaker 2: for a ton of pass snaps. He runs routes all

1414
01:12:16,320 --> 01:12:20,320
Speaker 2: the time. There's real very little room for Moster to

1415
01:12:20,400 --> 01:12:23,280
Speaker 2: do exactly what he does. Moster is very different back

1416
01:12:23,280 --> 01:12:26,439
Speaker 2: in that offense, so Gent should be out there at

1417
01:12:26,479 --> 01:12:30,000
Speaker 2: all points, and Dallas gives up a ton to the

1418
01:12:30,080 --> 01:12:32,840
Speaker 2: running backs, especially from a yardage standpoint. That's why I

1419
01:12:32,880 --> 01:12:35,800
Speaker 2: took yardage over reception to this one, because I think

1420
01:12:36,040 --> 01:12:39,320
Speaker 2: in the open field there's a chance he can kind

1421
01:12:39,320 --> 01:12:39,719
Speaker 2: of get.

1422
01:12:39,600 --> 01:12:41,599
Speaker 4: Loose, and I think this is a little low.

1423
01:12:41,880 --> 01:12:45,240
Speaker 2: The other prop there I looked at was Tyler Lockett

1424
01:12:45,280 --> 01:12:48,080
Speaker 2: to score a touchdown. You look at his pass snaps

1425
01:12:48,120 --> 01:12:50,559
Speaker 2: since he entered this offense not only last week, but

1426
01:12:50,600 --> 01:12:53,160
Speaker 2: the only thing he's doing is running routes, not one

1427
01:12:53,280 --> 01:12:54,160
Speaker 2: pass block.

1428
01:12:53,960 --> 01:12:54,799
Speaker 4: In two weeks.

1429
01:12:55,000 --> 01:12:58,360
Speaker 2: So basically, Pete Carrow making sure this guy is getting

1430
01:12:58,560 --> 01:13:01,040
Speaker 2: used to what he's doing right now, especially with Myers

1431
01:13:01,080 --> 01:13:03,839
Speaker 2: out the door, so I think he's ripe for a

1432
01:13:03,880 --> 01:13:07,400
Speaker 2: red zone target or two the other one. I honestly

1433
01:13:07,439 --> 01:13:09,880
Speaker 2: wanted much better odds on this, but I could also

1434
01:13:10,040 --> 01:13:13,120
Speaker 2: feel this being like an interception game. So I looked

1435
01:13:13,120 --> 01:13:16,639
Speaker 2: at both qbs to throw two picks. It's only twenty

1436
01:13:16,680 --> 01:13:19,040
Speaker 2: to one. I was honestly hoping for a little bit

1437
01:13:19,040 --> 01:13:21,439
Speaker 2: more than that, but I honestly feel I honestly feel

1438
01:13:21,479 --> 01:13:24,040
Speaker 2: like with Gino, he I think he leads to league

1439
01:13:24,040 --> 01:13:27,160
Speaker 2: in interceptions right now. Dak not an interception guy. For

1440
01:13:27,240 --> 01:13:29,679
Speaker 2: him to throw two would be about five to one.

1441
01:13:30,479 --> 01:13:34,240
Speaker 2: But either way, I feel like maybe both what are

1442
01:13:34,240 --> 01:13:37,639
Speaker 2: both qbs to throw one pick? Which might be something

1443
01:13:37,640 --> 01:13:39,920
Speaker 2: I could look at right now on DraftKings. That's like

1444
01:13:40,600 --> 01:13:43,519
Speaker 2: still only two fifty, But I like the gent prop,

1445
01:13:43,680 --> 01:13:44,840
Speaker 2: I like the locket prop.

1446
01:13:45,200 --> 01:13:48,760
Speaker 3: Anything else, No, let's do hot read.

1447
01:13:48,000 --> 01:13:49,280
Speaker 2: All right, So if you want to tell some of

1448
01:13:49,280 --> 01:13:51,720
Speaker 2: these known football bets, make sure to look for the

1449
01:13:51,760 --> 01:13:54,360
Speaker 2: quick slip link in the podcast and video description or

1450
01:13:54,400 --> 01:13:56,720
Speaker 2: go to action over dot com slash bet now. You

1451
01:13:56,720 --> 01:13:59,840
Speaker 2: can also find those quick slips in the live YouTube chat.

1452
01:14:00,000 --> 01:14:02,439
Speaker 2: You're still hanging out with us, and we appreciate it

1453
01:14:02,479 --> 01:14:04,639
Speaker 2: all right, Brandon, I think we tease them long enough.

1454
01:14:04,680 --> 01:14:06,920
Speaker 4: What are you doing to the hot read for next week?

1455
01:14:07,160 --> 01:14:15,680
Speaker 2: Hot rap blo seventy ice rights ice cream hot.

1456
01:14:17,320 --> 01:14:19,040
Speaker 3: Yeah two and oh hot read today. I think it

1457
01:14:19,120 --> 01:14:21,280
Speaker 3: is our third two and zero of the season. We

1458
01:14:21,360 --> 01:14:24,440
Speaker 3: got the Chiefs Broncos under. We got the Big Panthers

1459
01:14:24,520 --> 01:14:28,400
Speaker 3: win as well. We teased the first one already. I

1460
01:14:28,479 --> 01:14:31,679
Speaker 3: can't not bet against Sugar Sanders. How many ten chances

1461
01:14:31,680 --> 01:14:34,240
Speaker 3: are we gonna get to bet against Sugar Sanders Dylan

1462
01:14:34,280 --> 01:14:37,760
Speaker 3: Gabriel concussion protocol. I mean, look, I'm happy to bet

1463
01:14:37,800 --> 01:14:41,000
Speaker 3: against Dylan Gabriel as well, but I'm assuming Sanders give

1464
01:14:41,040 --> 01:14:44,479
Speaker 3: me the Browns Raiders under thirty seven and a half.

1465
01:14:44,800 --> 01:14:47,280
Speaker 3: We gave out Sanders stats a second ago, four of

1466
01:14:47,439 --> 01:14:51,360
Speaker 3: sixteen forty seven yards, two sacks and a pick in relief.

1467
01:14:51,560 --> 01:14:54,639
Speaker 3: Just just awful. And this game to me feels under

1468
01:14:54,640 --> 01:14:56,479
Speaker 3: all the way. You have two of the worst five

1469
01:14:56,520 --> 01:14:58,800
Speaker 3: offenses of football. We just talked about the Raiders and

1470
01:14:58,800 --> 01:15:01,800
Speaker 3: the Monday preview, and you know, two pretty good defenses.

1471
01:15:01,840 --> 01:15:05,800
Speaker 3: The Browns defense is great. Number four DVO during the weekend,

1472
01:15:05,920 --> 01:15:08,599
Speaker 3: Number one against the run and the Raiders are pretty good.

1473
01:15:08,880 --> 01:15:12,760
Speaker 3: They've been above the average most of the season. And

1474
01:15:13,400 --> 01:15:16,320
Speaker 3: if Monday night they actually hang in and I'm going

1475
01:15:16,360 --> 01:15:19,280
Speaker 3: to bet this before the Monday game, then I think

1476
01:15:19,280 --> 01:15:23,599
Speaker 3: this total drops pretty quickly if everyone watches them sort

1477
01:15:23,600 --> 01:15:26,759
Speaker 3: of limit. What everyone knows is a pretty good Dallas offense.

1478
01:15:26,840 --> 01:15:29,160
Speaker 3: So if that double by under and some of those

1479
01:15:29,240 --> 01:15:31,840
Speaker 3: under trends hit, then I think this line can start

1480
01:15:31,840 --> 01:15:34,160
Speaker 3: to drop. Some Raiders are six and three to the

1481
01:15:34,240 --> 01:15:37,799
Speaker 3: under already. They've had games this year with point total

1482
01:15:37,800 --> 01:15:42,360
Speaker 3: of thirty three, thirty one, thirty, twenty nine, seventeen. Those

1483
01:15:42,400 --> 01:15:45,720
Speaker 3: are all easily under this one. They're scoring fifteen and

1484
01:15:45,720 --> 01:15:48,559
Speaker 3: a half points a game, second to worst in the NFL.

1485
01:15:48,840 --> 01:15:51,320
Speaker 3: They've had four games already under ten points, and you

1486
01:15:51,439 --> 01:15:54,920
Speaker 3: know that's possible against the Browns. It's Browns on the road,

1487
01:15:55,320 --> 01:15:58,080
Speaker 3: but if that offense isn't clicking, it could just go

1488
01:15:58,160 --> 01:16:00,000
Speaker 3: sideways and then it's the Browns on the other side.

1489
01:16:00,080 --> 01:16:02,519
Speaker 3: We only got into the shader part. They've bet games

1490
01:16:02,520 --> 01:16:05,760
Speaker 3: already with thirty eight, thirty seven, thirty three, thirty two,

1491
01:16:05,960 --> 01:16:09,080
Speaker 3: twenty three points. That's the range we're looking for here.

1492
01:16:09,479 --> 01:16:12,240
Speaker 3: They had one good win over Miami. Outside of that game,

1493
01:16:12,600 --> 01:16:15,240
Speaker 3: fourteen and a half points a game since the start

1494
01:16:15,240 --> 01:16:18,639
Speaker 3: of last season. Just take out the Jamis games. He's

1495
01:16:18,680 --> 01:16:22,280
Speaker 3: back again, but when he's not in there, Cleveland's averaging

1496
01:16:22,320 --> 01:16:25,599
Speaker 3: fourteen point five points a game across twenty games. As

1497
01:16:25,600 --> 01:16:29,559
Speaker 3: an offense. There's just no offense here. Neither team has

1498
01:16:29,640 --> 01:16:33,200
Speaker 3: blocking right now. The quarterback play is bad. We might

1499
01:16:33,200 --> 01:16:37,160
Speaker 3: get Shadar Sanders on the road in Vegas, no run game,

1500
01:16:37,560 --> 01:16:39,880
Speaker 3: hopefully a little genty on Monday night, and then he'll

1501
01:16:39,880 --> 01:16:42,200
Speaker 3: be all tired out in this one. I just like

1502
01:16:42,280 --> 01:16:45,559
Speaker 3: the defenses here, so give me the under thirty seven

1503
01:16:45,600 --> 01:16:48,960
Speaker 3: and a half. And look, if Shader is the name

1504
01:16:49,040 --> 01:16:51,000
Speaker 3: the starter, and this hasn't moved too much yet, it

1505
01:16:51,080 --> 01:16:52,559
Speaker 3: might be mind chef season here.

1506
01:16:53,320 --> 01:16:55,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean between these two teams, and I think

1507
01:16:55,600 --> 01:16:58,519
Speaker 2: more important these two offenses. Plus you look at the

1508
01:16:58,600 --> 01:17:00,519
Speaker 2: Raiders on a short week, I think they're lots to

1509
01:17:00,600 --> 01:17:03,200
Speaker 2: look at here. And when you see these total set

1510
01:17:03,680 --> 01:17:07,040
Speaker 2: under thirty eight, under thirty seven, they're there for a reason.

1511
01:17:07,080 --> 01:17:09,200
Speaker 2: And it kind of goes with Brandon what he's talking

1512
01:17:09,200 --> 01:17:10,880
Speaker 2: about here. All right, what's your second one?

1513
01:17:11,240 --> 01:17:14,880
Speaker 3: Cassandra Futures says, that they bet against potential Sanders already

1514
01:17:14,880 --> 01:17:18,599
Speaker 3: as well. So glad we're in this one together. Second one,

1515
01:17:19,120 --> 01:17:22,600
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with the Bengals plus seven against the

1516
01:17:22,640 --> 01:17:27,080
Speaker 3: Patriots in Cincinnati. To me, this is a kitchen sink

1517
01:17:27,160 --> 01:17:31,040
Speaker 3: spot for Cincinnati. This is it seven losses at home.

1518
01:17:31,520 --> 01:17:33,639
Speaker 3: Joe Burrow on deck, but he's not gonna be back

1519
01:17:33,640 --> 01:17:36,800
Speaker 3: for this one, but maybe the next one. Trey Hendrickson

1520
01:17:36,840 --> 01:17:39,599
Speaker 3: maybe back or he's waiting one more game as well.

1521
01:17:40,080 --> 01:17:42,439
Speaker 3: This is the spot that the Bengals have to get

1522
01:17:42,439 --> 01:17:45,479
Speaker 3: a win. They have got to go all in to

1523
01:17:45,560 --> 01:17:49,400
Speaker 3: home spot against the Patriots, which to me, I've been

1524
01:17:49,400 --> 01:17:52,080
Speaker 3: in on the Patriots. I'm not quite Patriots Island, but

1525
01:17:52,120 --> 01:17:55,200
Speaker 3: I've bet them. I've got multiple playoff tickets. I don't

1526
01:17:55,280 --> 01:17:57,080
Speaker 3: think that they're as good as the nine to two

1527
01:17:57,200 --> 01:18:00,479
Speaker 3: record in the top of the AFC by Devio. They're

1528
01:18:00,520 --> 01:18:02,960
Speaker 3: pretty close to a league average team so far in

1529
01:18:03,000 --> 01:18:06,719
Speaker 3: the season. They're not really blowing teams out, and look

1530
01:18:06,800 --> 01:18:09,960
Speaker 3: in this matchup. I know Drake may has been amazing,

1531
01:18:10,360 --> 01:18:13,479
Speaker 3: but Drake May plus the rest of his dudes against

1532
01:18:13,560 --> 01:18:17,560
Speaker 3: Joe Flacco and his receivers, I think this is a shootout.

1533
01:18:17,600 --> 01:18:20,200
Speaker 3: I think this is a shootout all the way. Patriots

1534
01:18:20,240 --> 01:18:23,800
Speaker 3: defense is not really that great on the season. That's

1535
01:18:23,840 --> 01:18:26,720
Speaker 3: why Drake may is the MVP favorite because he's not

1536
01:18:26,720 --> 01:18:30,600
Speaker 3: getting much help. It's him and nothing else. Not much weapons,

1537
01:18:30,880 --> 01:18:34,720
Speaker 3: not great blocking, not great defense. Their bottom ten New

1538
01:18:34,720 --> 01:18:38,839
Speaker 3: England is by DVOA on defense, including bomb five against

1539
01:18:38,840 --> 01:18:42,400
Speaker 3: the pass, so you lead against the run. Not the

1540
01:18:42,439 --> 01:18:44,720
Speaker 3: right matchup for Cincinnati. They don't want to run the

1541
01:18:44,720 --> 01:18:47,960
Speaker 3: football anyway. Great, We'll run even less and just vomb

1542
01:18:48,000 --> 01:18:50,200
Speaker 3: it to tee and chase all game long. And I

1543
01:18:50,240 --> 01:18:52,720
Speaker 3: don't think the Patriots have an answer for that. Just

1544
01:18:52,760 --> 01:18:56,519
Speaker 3: feels shootout all the way. Seven points on the line,

1545
01:18:56,520 --> 01:18:58,680
Speaker 3: give me that key number. I get this closer to

1546
01:18:58,720 --> 01:19:02,920
Speaker 3: a field goal in Cincinnati. I think they are live

1547
01:19:03,120 --> 01:19:05,880
Speaker 3: to win this game. It's a great spot to fade

1548
01:19:05,960 --> 01:19:09,280
Speaker 3: the Patriots who are a bit overvalued underdogs that have

1549
01:19:09,400 --> 01:19:13,800
Speaker 3: lost anfield to cover three straight games. That Cincinnati one

1550
01:19:13,840 --> 01:19:17,120
Speaker 3: oh six, seventy five and five against the spread fifty

1551
01:19:17,160 --> 01:19:20,800
Speaker 3: eight percent thirteen percent ROI on that team, and I'm

1552
01:19:20,800 --> 01:19:24,479
Speaker 3: not stopping there. Bengals plus seven give me the money

1553
01:19:24,479 --> 01:19:27,559
Speaker 3: line plus two to eighty five and one step further,

1554
01:19:27,640 --> 01:19:32,720
Speaker 3: let's end it right, Bengals escalator hear me out to

1555
01:19:32,800 --> 01:19:36,880
Speaker 3: win the division at forty to one at DraftKings. Here's

1556
01:19:36,920 --> 01:19:40,360
Speaker 3: the case. The Bengals are three back right now of

1557
01:19:40,479 --> 01:19:44,320
Speaker 3: who Pittsburgh and Aaron Rodgers who's got a broken wrist

1558
01:19:44,400 --> 01:19:48,519
Speaker 3: or something going on there, and Baltimore, who's not really

1559
01:19:48,560 --> 01:19:52,040
Speaker 3: looking Baltimore right now, they're kind of getting some not

1560
01:19:52,280 --> 01:19:55,559
Speaker 3: that exciting of wins. I'm not convinced that that thing

1561
01:19:55,640 --> 01:20:01,040
Speaker 3: is closed off. Here's the Bengals schedule, Patriots, Ravens Bill's Ravens.

1562
01:20:01,640 --> 01:20:05,680
Speaker 3: All year, that Ravens Bill's Ravens stretch has looked overwhelming

1563
01:20:05,680 --> 01:20:09,400
Speaker 3: and daunting. But that's when Burrow's supposed to come back

1564
01:20:09,560 --> 01:20:13,360
Speaker 3: for Ravens Bill's Ravens. And guess which teams are feeling

1565
01:20:13,400 --> 01:20:16,200
Speaker 3: a bit underwhelming to all of us watching right now.

1566
01:20:16,520 --> 01:20:19,080
Speaker 3: The Ravens, the Bills, and the Ravens. Again, that's how

1567
01:20:19,120 --> 01:20:23,280
Speaker 3: underwhelming they're feeling. If the Bengals win this one, I

1568
01:20:23,320 --> 01:20:25,080
Speaker 3: think they probably need to go three and one in

1569
01:20:25,080 --> 01:20:29,880
Speaker 3: that stretch, get through it. They close Dolphins, Cardinals, Browns.

1570
01:20:30,800 --> 01:20:32,720
Speaker 3: It would be very Bengals to get all the way

1571
01:20:32,720 --> 01:20:34,600
Speaker 3: to the Browns game and blow it. And then lose it.

1572
01:20:34,640 --> 01:20:36,680
Speaker 3: I'll say that, but we'll have chances ahead if we

1573
01:20:36,760 --> 01:20:39,280
Speaker 3: get that close. I think if they go three and one,

1574
01:20:39,360 --> 01:20:42,639
Speaker 3: here set up for the big finish nine to eight

1575
01:20:42,800 --> 01:20:45,600
Speaker 3: in the Bad Division. It's forty to one. I'm not

1576
01:20:45,640 --> 01:20:48,320
Speaker 3: telling you it's gonna happen, but I think that they're

1577
01:20:48,360 --> 01:20:51,920
Speaker 3: more like five, maybe ten percent likely. Forty to one

1578
01:20:52,120 --> 01:20:55,800
Speaker 3: is around two percent. That's the Bengals. I think they're

1579
01:20:55,840 --> 01:20:58,599
Speaker 3: going to take care of the Patriots. I think they

1580
01:20:58,600 --> 01:21:01,800
Speaker 3: can beat the Patriots. Play the plus seven, play the

1581
01:21:01,840 --> 01:21:05,360
Speaker 3: money line, and I played the division before today. I'm

1582
01:21:05,360 --> 01:21:07,960
Speaker 3: doubling down and playing it again at forty to one

1583
01:21:08,400 --> 01:21:09,960
Speaker 3: one more time. On the Bengals.

1584
01:21:10,240 --> 01:21:13,520
Speaker 2: There's nothing quite like knowing that when you watched Pittsburgh

1585
01:21:13,640 --> 01:21:16,760
Speaker 2: and Cincinnati today, saying to yourselves, this is the team

1586
01:21:16,800 --> 01:21:19,000
Speaker 2: I'm going forward with. But that's how you have to

1587
01:21:19,040 --> 01:21:21,519
Speaker 2: do it, because the odds end up kind of flipping

1588
01:21:21,520 --> 01:21:23,880
Speaker 2: in that direction when they look so bad. And that

1589
01:21:24,040 --> 01:21:34,599
Speaker 2: is week to week in the NFL's thanks, all right,

1590
01:21:34,640 --> 01:21:37,200
Speaker 2: Before we wrap up, let's hear from Patrick Everson from

1591
01:21:37,280 --> 01:21:39,879
Speaker 2: Vegas Insiders and how things looked in Las Vegas.

1592
01:21:40,080 --> 01:21:41,599
Speaker 1: All right, thanks a lot for having me back on

1593
01:21:41,640 --> 01:21:44,719
Speaker 1: the Action Network podcast. I guess the most unique element

1594
01:21:44,920 --> 01:21:47,719
Speaker 1: of NFL Week eleven odds is that there wasn't really

1595
01:21:47,760 --> 01:21:48,799
Speaker 1: a unique element.

1596
01:21:49,280 --> 01:21:49,800
Speaker 3: There was not.

1597
01:21:50,040 --> 01:21:51,880
Speaker 1: It was not like a big win for the sports

1598
01:21:51,880 --> 01:21:54,479
Speaker 1: books or a big win for the public betting masses.

1599
01:21:54,560 --> 01:21:56,519
Speaker 1: There was some give and take throughout the day, and

1600
01:21:57,080 --> 01:21:59,200
Speaker 1: from the operators that I talked to here in Vegas

1601
01:21:59,240 --> 01:22:01,479
Speaker 1: and across the country on Sunday, it sounds like the

1602
01:22:01,520 --> 01:22:05,559
Speaker 1: sports books got themselves a modest win, just a small

1603
01:22:05,600 --> 01:22:09,200
Speaker 1: win today. But again, nothing really stood out in the

1604
01:22:09,280 --> 01:22:12,880
Speaker 1: overall picture. It wasn't like a blood bath for the

1605
01:22:12,880 --> 01:22:16,439
Speaker 1: public betting masses or a great win for the public

1606
01:22:16,479 --> 01:22:18,200
Speaker 1: betting masses. It was just kind of one of those

1607
01:22:18,840 --> 01:22:22,160
Speaker 1: humdrum kind of football days. Now within that date, when

1608
01:22:22,200 --> 01:22:25,240
Speaker 1: you get to specifics, you get some really interesting results,

1609
01:22:25,240 --> 01:22:27,800
Speaker 1: and obviously the most noteworthy among them was the Denver

1610
01:22:27,840 --> 01:22:31,519
Speaker 1: Broncos beating the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City Chiefs now

1611
01:22:31,600 --> 01:22:34,960
Speaker 1: five and five straight up against spreads, so that was

1612
01:22:35,080 --> 01:22:38,240
Speaker 1: pretty key. Multiple sportsbook operators told me that was a

1613
01:22:38,360 --> 01:22:42,360
Speaker 1: really good outcome for them. One here in Las Vegas

1614
01:22:43,000 --> 01:22:46,040
Speaker 1: even said, the Broncos knocking me off the Chiefs saved

1615
01:22:46,120 --> 01:22:50,240
Speaker 1: us from a losing day, while another operator, kind of

1616
01:22:50,240 --> 01:22:52,479
Speaker 1: getting to what I touched on as we introed here,

1617
01:22:52,640 --> 01:22:55,639
Speaker 1: was overall it was kind of a forgettable day. He said,

1618
01:22:55,680 --> 01:22:57,880
Speaker 1: win a little and move on to next week. And

1619
01:22:57,880 --> 01:23:00,759
Speaker 1: that's kind of how it was for most sportsbooks. The

1620
01:23:00,920 --> 01:23:04,640
Speaker 1: Seahawks Rams outcome was pretty good. The Rams winning but

1621
01:23:04,920 --> 01:23:08,439
Speaker 1: not covering was something that a couple of oddsmakers said

1622
01:23:09,080 --> 01:23:12,879
Speaker 1: was a much desired outcome. And it's kind of amazing

1623
01:23:12,880 --> 01:23:15,040
Speaker 1: when you think that Seattle actually covered the spread as

1624
01:23:15,040 --> 01:23:20,200
Speaker 1: a three point underdog when Sam Darnold throws four interceptions.

1625
01:23:20,360 --> 01:23:23,280
Speaker 1: So that was interesting as well. One of the oddsmakers

1626
01:23:23,280 --> 01:23:25,400
Speaker 1: I spoke with here in Vegas, you know, the Packers

1627
01:23:25,400 --> 01:23:27,800
Speaker 1: and Ravens. No good for the books, very good for

1628
01:23:27,840 --> 01:23:29,439
Speaker 1: the better. So that was a case where the betters

1629
01:23:29,439 --> 01:23:33,160
Speaker 1: did pretty well. Probably parlayed together in some form or fashion.

1630
01:23:33,640 --> 01:23:35,479
Speaker 1: Although some of those I'm sure we're tied to the Chiefs,

1631
01:23:35,520 --> 01:23:36,120
Speaker 1: some of them were not.

1632
01:23:36,800 --> 01:23:38,639
Speaker 4: The Buffalo Bills.

1633
01:23:38,000 --> 01:23:41,120
Speaker 1: Definitely a really good outcome for the betters, trailing early

1634
01:23:41,160 --> 01:23:43,439
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter but coming back and not only winning,

1635
01:23:43,760 --> 01:23:46,160
Speaker 1: but covering a six and a half point home favorites

1636
01:23:46,280 --> 01:23:49,160
Speaker 1: against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That was definitely a good

1637
01:23:49,560 --> 01:23:55,720
Speaker 1: outcome for the public. Looking specifically at Draft Kings, you know,

1638
01:23:55,840 --> 01:23:58,519
Speaker 1: some of what they saw going into this day, the

1639
01:23:58,560 --> 01:24:04,120
Speaker 1: most bet teams against the spread by ticket count, where

1640
01:24:04,160 --> 01:24:08,400
Speaker 1: the Packers, the Chargers, and the Ravens. Packers depending on

1641
01:24:08,439 --> 01:24:10,640
Speaker 1: the number you got, did not cover. I think they

1642
01:24:10,680 --> 01:24:13,479
Speaker 1: closed seven and a half and they ended up winning

1643
01:24:13,479 --> 01:24:19,040
Speaker 1: them by seven. Chargers got absolutely trucked at Jacksonville. So

1644
01:24:19,200 --> 01:24:22,120
Speaker 1: that was a result that certainly fell in the sportsbooks

1645
01:24:22,160 --> 01:24:26,680
Speaker 1: favors Baltimore Ravens win at Cleveland by a touchdown. But

1646
01:24:26,800 --> 01:24:28,800
Speaker 1: also I think that was seven to seven and a

1647
01:24:28,800 --> 01:24:31,719
Speaker 1: half too, so not necessarily a good or bad outcome

1648
01:24:31,720 --> 01:24:33,840
Speaker 1: for the book, depending on you know, how many they

1649
01:24:33,880 --> 01:24:36,479
Speaker 1: had in a certain numbers in terms of money against

1650
01:24:36,479 --> 01:24:41,880
Speaker 1: the spread at DraftKings, Packers Bills, Chiefs one two three

1651
01:24:42,120 --> 01:24:44,880
Speaker 1: in points spread money, and again the Packers don't cover,

1652
01:24:45,080 --> 01:24:48,439
Speaker 1: the Bills do cover. The Chiefs, as I noted at

1653
01:24:48,439 --> 01:24:52,639
Speaker 1: the top, lose outright to the Denver Broncos. So certainly,

1654
01:24:52,880 --> 01:24:55,000
Speaker 1: you know, it looks like Draft Kings would fall among

1655
01:24:55,000 --> 01:24:57,000
Speaker 1: those who probably had a give and take day and

1656
01:24:57,120 --> 01:25:00,240
Speaker 1: probably scratched out a win in the end, especially the wind.

1657
01:25:00,240 --> 01:25:02,559
Speaker 1: They're considering some of the money line parlays that surely

1658
01:25:02,600 --> 01:25:06,639
Speaker 1: got blown up by the Broncos beating the Kansas City Chiefs.

1659
01:25:07,000 --> 01:25:09,200
Speaker 1: It's always interesting to see how the underdogs are played

1660
01:25:09,280 --> 01:25:12,240
Speaker 1: at DraftKings. The top three money line underdogs in bet

1661
01:25:12,280 --> 01:25:14,759
Speaker 1: count where the Lions, the Bears, and Seahawks. The Bears

1662
01:25:15,000 --> 01:25:16,880
Speaker 1: were the only ones that got an outright win there

1663
01:25:17,280 --> 01:25:20,120
Speaker 1: and in terms of money exact say one, two three lines,

1664
01:25:20,160 --> 01:25:23,439
Speaker 1: Bear Seahawks. Taking a quick peek at the Monday night game,

1665
01:25:23,880 --> 01:25:26,760
Speaker 1: which look, these two teams are popular even if they're

1666
01:25:26,800 --> 01:25:29,599
Speaker 1: having poor seasons, especially the Dallas Cowboys, They're always going

1667
01:25:29,640 --> 01:25:33,760
Speaker 1: to be popular, and they are extremely popular in this

1668
01:25:33,800 --> 01:25:37,280
Speaker 1: game at DraftKings. Heading into Monday, You've got eighty two

1669
01:25:37,360 --> 01:25:40,479
Speaker 1: percent of spread bets, seventy nine percent of spread money

1670
01:25:40,560 --> 01:25:42,640
Speaker 1: on the Cowboys, and they're all over the Cowboys and

1671
01:25:42,680 --> 01:25:45,439
Speaker 1: the money line too, so they're taking the Cowboys in

1672
01:25:45,439 --> 01:25:48,040
Speaker 1: every way. There's no doubt DraftKings is going to need

1673
01:25:48,800 --> 01:25:51,280
Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders right here in Las Vegas at

1674
01:25:51,320 --> 01:25:55,240
Speaker 1: Allegiant Stadium in the Monday night game. For a lot

1675
01:25:55,360 --> 01:25:58,599
Speaker 1: more on NFL Week twelve odds. Head over to Vegas

1676
01:25:58,600 --> 01:26:01,679
Speaker 1: Insider My complete Open Odds and Action Report for Week twelve.

1677
01:26:01,720 --> 01:26:04,679
Speaker 1: Ways Up, it's got every game and they're all fourteen games.

1678
01:26:05,040 --> 01:26:07,519
Speaker 1: Information on all of them, as well as some really

1679
01:26:07,560 --> 01:26:11,040
Speaker 1: keen insights on some of the more notable matchups. Hope

1680
01:26:11,040 --> 01:26:13,040
Speaker 1: you all have a fantastic week.

1681
01:26:12,840 --> 01:26:13,200
Speaker 4: All right?

1682
01:26:13,200 --> 01:26:14,960
Speaker 2: That'll do it here on the Action Every podcast for

1683
01:26:14,960 --> 01:26:18,800
Speaker 2: our NFL Week eleven recap episodes presented by DraftKings.

1684
01:26:18,840 --> 01:26:20,960
Speaker 4: Give us a like on the YouTube video before you

1685
01:26:21,040 --> 01:26:21,519
Speaker 4: take off.

1686
01:26:21,720 --> 01:26:24,320
Speaker 2: We really appreciate it, and also go to Action emer

1687
01:26:24,360 --> 01:26:27,040
Speaker 2: dot com slash Pro use a promo code Pod twenty

1688
01:26:27,080 --> 01:26:29,680
Speaker 2: for twenty hours off a year of Action Pro. And

1689
01:26:29,880 --> 01:26:33,040
Speaker 2: if you haven't yet, checkout our new AI quick clipt

1690
01:26:33,040 --> 01:26:36,760
Speaker 2: on X. Just tag playbook that's right at Playbook and

1691
01:26:36,840 --> 01:26:39,360
Speaker 2: tell to grab whatever bets you're looking for and it'll

1692
01:26:39,439 --> 01:26:42,800
Speaker 2: create equips up link for you in a matter of seconds.

1693
01:26:43,040 --> 01:26:45,479
Speaker 2: We'll be back for Action Island before Monday Night's game

1694
01:26:45,560 --> 01:26:48,240
Speaker 2: right here on Action our YouTube page, as well as

1695
01:26:48,240 --> 01:26:50,599
Speaker 2: more NFL best bets from Brandon, the six Pack from

1696
01:26:50,640 --> 01:26:53,320
Speaker 2: Ray Bond and Stuck Anytime, Touchdowns and more on the

1697
01:26:53,360 --> 01:26:56,240
Speaker 2: podcast feed next week. Thank you for listening, good luck

1698
01:26:56,280 --> 01:26:58,519
Speaker 2: with all your bets, and let us hit a seventy

1699
01:26:58,560 --> 01:27:01,559
Speaker 2: five to one every single enjoy, See you later.

1700
01:27:17,439 --> 01:27:21,960
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1701
01:27:21,960 --> 01:27:24,760
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1702
01:27:24,800 --> 01:27:27,879
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler