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Speaker 1: Lots of guys.

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Saturday morning edition of

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Speaker 2: the Deal Juice Podcast with me Matt parolto Are you

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Speaker 2: here for a very interesting Saturday on bettingpros dot com

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Speaker 2: always being brought to you by bet mgm the offer

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Speaker 2: ten dollars to win one hundred and fifty dollars on

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Speaker 2: any event that's a promo code a Juice one fifty

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Speaker 2: at betmgm or betmgm dot com. Great did he use it?

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Speaker 2: Because it's a crazy day. This is going to be

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Speaker 2: a funky and Waco and wild Saturday. We've got college basketball,

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Speaker 2: which I'm not really all that interested in. Maybe later

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Speaker 2: in the day, maybe as we head towards the rest

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Speaker 2: of the day potentially, But since it's Saturday, Sunday, Monday,

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Speaker 2: it's our last three day hurrah for football really in

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Speaker 2: terms of having college and pro over a three day stretch.

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Speaker 2: Monday being the championship game, we have two NFL games today.

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Speaker 2: We've got a bunch coming up on Sunday. You guys know,

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Speaker 2: I'm already involved the Raiders at plus three for that,

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Speaker 2: so we've got that one bet going already. I'll have

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Speaker 2: other plays and I'm eyeballing coming up for tomorrow, but

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Speaker 2: you got to wait and see if any last minute cancelations,

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Speaker 2: last minute COVID issues, whatever may pop up. The player props.

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Speaker 2: I've never really seen a market like this on player props.

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Speaker 2: It is unbelievable. I'm sitting here. The game will kick

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Speaker 2: off Denver kicks off here in about twelve hours or so,

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Speaker 2: maybe a little more thirteen hours, and that's the only

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Speaker 2: game with.

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Speaker 1: Player props up.

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Speaker 2: There's nothing for Dallas and Philadelphia from a player prop

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Speaker 2: perspective anywhere really that I can find. So here at

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Speaker 2: the time of taping, we've got Denver, and we've got

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Speaker 2: Kansas City, and then we might have to add in.

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Speaker 2: We probably are going to have to add in here

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Speaker 2: on the Discord channel. So here's where I'm at. I

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Speaker 2: got one play for us on Case and Denver. I've

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Speaker 2: got two player props for this game for Case and

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Speaker 2: for Denver, and then I'll probably have two player props

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Speaker 2: coming up here for the Cowboys. There are so many

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Speaker 2: COVID problems for the Eagles. That's why the book are

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Speaker 2: kind of holding out seeing who actually is going to

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Speaker 2: be in this game for Philadelphia.

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Speaker 1: So it's difficult to.

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Speaker 2: Say like, yes, this is where we are with the Eagles,

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Speaker 2: or who's going to get what carries? You know, there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of people eyeballing their running backs potentially from

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Speaker 2: scoring opportunities.

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Speaker 1: So it's just not your typical Saturday.

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Speaker 2: But let's talk about the side here for Kansas City

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Speaker 2: in Denver, it's a full unit play for me. And

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Speaker 2: let's talk about the fact that this is probably the

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Speaker 2: last game for Drew Lock. Now, some people in Denver

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Speaker 2: believe that Drew Lock will have a second chance somewhere

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Speaker 2: else and he might actually justify the second round pick

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Speaker 2: that the Broncos used with him, and that the Broncos

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Speaker 2: have ruined him. Vic Fangio has ruined him. I don't

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Speaker 2: entirely agree with that. I don't entirely disagree with that either.

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Speaker 2: But he's not a good quarterback. Okay, Drew Lock has

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Speaker 2: been bad. This number is ten and a half for

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Speaker 2: some reason, the numbers coming down. It was eleven, now

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Speaker 2: it's ten and a half. I mean, when you look

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Speaker 2: at the injury report, the Broncos are going to be

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Speaker 2: without three of their starting cornerbacks. Darby, Harriston and Certain

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Speaker 2: are all out. Okay, Certain's on IR. Harrison's on IR,

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Speaker 2: Darby's on IR. Okay, they're not playing in this game

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Speaker 2: against the case Chiefs, who are playing in a game

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Speaker 2: that matters. Not most likely Casey is going to be

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Speaker 2: the two seed, but they got to win this game

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Speaker 2: to guarantee themselves the two seed. They play first. Okay,

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Speaker 2: they can't just mail it in and say eh, if

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Speaker 2: we lose, we're fine.

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Speaker 1: They got to win this game.

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Speaker 2: They have to play and they have to try. Okay,

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Speaker 2: so this is, you know, not a game they can

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Speaker 2: mail in. The number is ten and a half. You

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Speaker 2: tell me how many points the Broncos are going to score.

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Speaker 2: Team total is sixteen and a half.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: I may come in on the under for that if

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Speaker 2: I can't find any props that I like for the

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Speaker 2: Dallas game. The other half a unit bet I may

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Speaker 2: make is the team total under sixteen and a half

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Speaker 2: for the Broncos because I don't know how they score.

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Speaker 2: I know last week the Bengals went up and down

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Speaker 2: the field and did a number on that secondary for

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs. But this is a divisional game. This is

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Speaker 2: not Joe Burrow. Okay, this is true. Luck Blayme quarterback

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Speaker 2: here for the Denver Broncos. This is a game that

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Speaker 2: doesn't matter much for Denver. It's a rivalry game, so

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Speaker 2: clearly they would like to win the game. And they're

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Speaker 2: not gonna mail it in and just you know, fly

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Speaker 2: up the wit. They'll put up the white flag. But

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Speaker 2: how many points do you think they score? Team total

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Speaker 2: for the Chiefs is twenty seven and a half. That

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Speaker 2: might be a decent side as well. They're gonna jump

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Speaker 2: in if you want to go with that. So there

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Speaker 2: are a bunch of different angles you can play on this,

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Speaker 2: but the number is ten and a half. Let's just

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Speaker 2: start with twenty eight points for the Casey Chiefs. How

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Speaker 2: many points is Denver going to score? Ten?

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Speaker 1: Okay, the number is ten and a half. All we

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Speaker 1: need them.

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Speaker 2: To do is Casey scores thirty and they're covering right.

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Speaker 2: Casey's going to score thirty points in this game. It's

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Speaker 2: kind of a foregone conclusion that they're going to score

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Speaker 2: that many points. And I mean, this is one of

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Speaker 2: those games where I think it gets really really ugly.

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Speaker 2: They won the first matchup twenty two to nine. Okay,

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Speaker 2: I think it's a twenty two twenty eight to ten

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Speaker 2: type game. I think the under might be a decent

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Speaker 2: play in this. Okay, another side is you know, Denver

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Speaker 2: team total under, but also the game under might also

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Speaker 2: be a decent thing to look at. Denver at home

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Speaker 2: this year straight up, they're four and four straight up.

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Speaker 2: Here on the road, case is four and three straight up.

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Speaker 1: This number.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you might go, Matt, ten and a half

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Speaker 2: points is a lot of points. Yeah, But double digit

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Speaker 2: spreads in the NFL, it's amazing. The favorites have been

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Speaker 2: covering this number at about an eighty percent clip this year.

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Speaker 2: It's incredible. Look at how many double digit spreads have

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Speaker 2: gotten home and actually won the game outright and covered. Here,

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Speaker 2: so eight and eight case against the number, they're four

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Speaker 2: and one against the spread. Though in the division, Denver

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Speaker 2: is one in four against the spread. Against the division,

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Speaker 2: they are one in four over their last five, and

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Speaker 2: they're four and four against the number at home. Case

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Speaker 2: is four and three against the number on the road.

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Speaker 2: Before they got into that you know, Cincinnati game where

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Speaker 2: they could have covered, they were laying three and a half.

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Speaker 2: They lost the game outright by three, but they had

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Speaker 2: covered for six straight games. So I think last week

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Speaker 2: was a little bit of an anomaly. I know, a

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Speaker 2: different type of team. You're playing not in the division

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Speaker 2: late in the year, and you're taking on a Denver

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Speaker 2: team that has not covered. They have covered once in

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Speaker 2: the last four games when they beat Detroit, but against

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Speaker 2: Kansas City eight and a half point. Dogs lost by

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Speaker 2: thirteen against Cincinnati three point favorites.

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Speaker 1: They lost outright by five.

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Speaker 2: Against the Raiders here in Vegas, laying one, they lost

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Speaker 2: by four, and then the Chargers catching eight points from

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Speaker 2: a Charger perspective, and they lost by twenty one points

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Speaker 2: in that game. So this is a team not playing

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Speaker 2: for much, with a bad quarterback, a lot of numbers

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Speaker 2: going against them. Secondary not gonna be there banged up

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Speaker 2: and injured and on the ir here. Don't think Denver

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Speaker 2: can score. I think Casey's defense holds them down again.

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Speaker 2: Give up nine points in the first matchup. I'm going

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Speaker 2: ten and a half, laying it Kansas City one unit

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Speaker 2: minus ten and a half here against Denver on the

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Speaker 2: road for the first.

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Speaker 1: Game of the day.

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Speaker 2: That game is kicking off at four thirty Eastern time

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Speaker 2: on Saturday afternoon in Eastern I have no idea what

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Speaker 2: to do the second game. Okay, I have no idea,

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Speaker 2: who's playing, who's not. I don't know how you make

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Speaker 2: bets on Dallas in Philadelphia. It's a wild, crazy game.

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Speaker 2: I may bet in game, may be something I'm going

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Speaker 2: to add. There may be a player proper two that

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Speaker 2: I look to get into on this, But I mean,

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Speaker 2: the only props that are out right now are touchdown scores,

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Speaker 2: and like I guess you can lay in Ezekiel Elliott's

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Speaker 2: at even money or Jalen Hurts at plus one p

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Speaker 2: fifty if you want, But I'm just not into it

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Speaker 2: right now. I just I'm not jumping up and down

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Speaker 2: about anything to do with this Dallas and Eagles game.

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Speaker 2: And why risk it? Why force it if you don't

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Speaker 2: have to force it. So the next two bets are

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Speaker 2: player props on the KC game. Let's talk about that

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Speaker 2: injured secondary and banged up Tarreek Hill's receiving yardage is

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Speaker 2: only sixty three and a half yards. Okay, it feels

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Speaker 2: like Hill is going to have a monster game here. Okay,

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Speaker 2: so the last two games has had forty yards and

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Speaker 2: nineteen yards. It's been sort of weird. Against the Broncos,

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Speaker 2: he only had twenty two yards receiving. It's been a

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Speaker 2: weird run. He's been twenty two, seventy six, one, forty eight,

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Speaker 2: nineteen and forty over his last five games. But before

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Speaker 2: that he went seventy seven. He went eighty three, then

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Speaker 2: thirty seven, then ninety four. This feels like to me,

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Speaker 2: the Tyreek Hill is going to have a couple of

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Speaker 2: big games, a couple of big catches, forty yards, fifty yards,

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Speaker 2: some big play Fartari Kill to go off. There's a

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Speaker 2: question about like how long would these guys play, And frankly, look,

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Speaker 2: if we get new is that they're gonna sit Hill

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Speaker 2: down for whatever reason, the bet will void, And as

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Speaker 2: long as he doesn't play, the bet will void. But

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Speaker 2: for a quarter unit, I'm going over sixty three and

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Speaker 2: a half receiving yards far Turi kill. I just think

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Speaker 2: they are gonna be able to guard him. I'm like,

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Speaker 2: you can't guard this guy with starting cornerbacks. You're gonna

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Speaker 2: guard him with backup cornerbacks. It's only a quarter unit bet.

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Speaker 2: I'm comfortable laying here Tyreek Hill over sixty three and

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Speaker 2: a half receiving yards. The prop bet cheat sheet likes

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Speaker 2: this as well. It's the third best option for this game.

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Speaker 2: I don't trust Courtland Sutton Courtland Sutton to go over

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Speaker 2: twenty nine and a half. And I'm not betting under

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Speaker 2: on Drew Lock passing props because I think they're gonna

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Speaker 2: be down big and the Chiefs may play prevent defense

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Speaker 2: and Locke may rack up two hundred yards passing and

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Speaker 2: then we're dead. So I'm not looking to get involved

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Speaker 2: with that. But terreik Hill sixty three and a half,

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Speaker 2: the prop bet cheat sheet is projecting eighty two and

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Speaker 2: a half yards receiving for Tarik Kill. I can see

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Speaker 2: it easily, even though the numbers haven't been great. Six

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Speaker 2: catches forty yards six point seven average is not like

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Speaker 2: treek Hill. He's normally nineteen eleven twelve point three, nine

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Speaker 2: point five.

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Speaker 1: That's more like it.

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Speaker 2: Okay, So at sixty three and a half, we need,

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Speaker 2: you know, six catches averaging somewhere around like eight to

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Speaker 2: ten yards per catch for Tarik Hill, and then we

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Speaker 2: should get there over sixty three and a half receiving

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Speaker 2: yards for Tarik Hill for a quarter unit and the

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Speaker 2: other play the other quarter unit that I'm gonna jump

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Speaker 2: in here. I think Travis Kelcey gets a touchdown. I

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Speaker 2: think in the red zone. He's becoming a big weapon.

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Speaker 2: He had two touchdown catches against the Chargers. He had

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Speaker 2: one against the Bengals, ten catches for a buck ninety

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Speaker 2: one against the Chargers Monster game, five catches for twenty

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Speaker 2: five yards last week against the Bengals, had a touchdown

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Speaker 2: in that game as well, Raider.

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Speaker 1: The Raiders game was three for.

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Speaker 2: Twenty seven, Broncos three for twenty seven, Cowboys five for

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Speaker 2: seventy four.

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Speaker 1: So only his receiving yardage is sixty two and a half.

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Speaker 2: He's only gone over that two times in the last

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Speaker 2: five for Travis Kelcey, So like, I think he's becoming

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Speaker 2: a bigger weapon in the red zone. And I think

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Speaker 2: in the red zone that's when the chiefs really are.

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Speaker 2: The Broncos will have a tough time guarding him with

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Speaker 2: all those injured cornerbacks, and they're gonna guard the guard

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Speaker 2: the wide receivers. That's where Kelsey gets open for a touchdown.

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Speaker 2: You can shop around to find what type of value

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Speaker 2: you're gonna get on this from a touchdown scoring perspective

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Speaker 2: for Travis kelce and I think that they're there's an

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Speaker 2: opportunity maybe to get even money, but for the most part.

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Speaker 2: I think you're gonna wind up getting somewhere around minus

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Speaker 2: one oh five, you know, somewhere in that range. I

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Speaker 2: got minus one fifteen on this at DraftKings right now

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Speaker 2: at the time of taping, or Travis kelce anytime touchdown.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go ahead and lay it here.

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Speaker 2: I think Kelsey gets a receiving touchdown, and I think

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Speaker 2: it's an opportunity to lay a.

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Speaker 1: Little juice quarter unit. It's not horrible.

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Speaker 2: Hopefully, you know, you shop around, you find a better

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Speaker 2: number for this, because it's definitely available at different books.

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Speaker 2: Let me, while I'm sitting here, I saw it as FanDuel,

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Speaker 2: cause you guys maybe have access to that from anytime

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Speaker 2: touchdown perspective. That might be good to jump in here

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Speaker 2: with Travis Kelcey, but there are no props for the

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Speaker 2: late game. On Travis kelce Kelsey, it's minus one thirty,

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Speaker 2: so it's worse at fandel but mine one fifteen at

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Speaker 2: DraftKings anytime touchdown quarter unit. Travis Kelcey all right, so

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Speaker 2: he plays here on Denver and Kansas City for US

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Speaker 2: the late game discord channel bettingpros dot Com slash chat

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Speaker 2: to get into it or the link is underneath me

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Speaker 2: here on YouTube to go ahead and get in.

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Speaker 1: We'll do that. I'll be in there. We'll be in

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Speaker 1: there for a bit.

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Speaker 2: We will have the live stream on Sunday with Dan

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Speaker 2: Harris and I, so we'll have a lot more player

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Speaker 2: prop conversations. The whole day basically is gonna be a

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Speaker 2: player prop conversation where the books just simply are not

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Speaker 2: willing to put up props right now on these games,

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Speaker 2: and you know, it's it's frustrating. You know, touchdown scoring

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Speaker 2: props are up for Dallas and Philly, but that's it.

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Speaker 2: And then a limited menu is up for props for

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Speaker 2: the early game with Kansas City and Denver. We're playing

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Speaker 2: one unit case minus ten and a half. I don't

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Speaker 2: mind a play on the under, but I'm not going

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Speaker 2: to touch that. Over sixty three and a half receiving

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Speaker 2: yards Travis Kelce for a quarter unit and anytime touchdown

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Speaker 2: at minus one fifty Sorry Terry Kell See sorry Terrey

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Speaker 2: kill over sixty three and a half receiving and anytime

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Speaker 2: touchdown Travis Kelce at minus one fifteen for a quarter

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Speaker 2: unit minus.

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Speaker 1: Matt Parralt.

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Speaker 2: Follow me on Twitter at sports talk Matt More in

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Speaker 2: the Discord channel. Coming up later in the day today

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Speaker 2: for a very special NFL Saturday. Here for the Daily

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Speaker 2: Juice podcast, always being brought to you by BETHAMGM