WEBVTT - SHARP NFL Week 2 Bets - Packers-Jets, Vikings-Bears & more 0:00:00.830 --> 0:00:05.430 Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Polymarket. 0:00:05.470 --> 0:00:08.020 We are part of the Volume Podcast Network. 0:00:08.060 --> 0:00:10.800 This is the show that makes the squares sharper and 0:00:10.840 --> 0:00:12.220 makes the wise guys pay attention. 0:00:12.280 --> 0:00:13.040 I am Chad Millman. 0:00:13.080 --> 0:00:17.120 I am joined, as always, by my co-host, my companion, 0:00:17.250 --> 0:00:22.290 my compadre, professional bettor, Simon Hunter. 0:00:22.670 --> 0:00:24.270 Hello, Simon. 0:00:25.230 --> 0:00:26.230 Chad, how we doing? 0:00:27.210 --> 0:00:29.380 My brother, my man. 0:00:30.620 --> 0:00:36.089 It's our Thursday NFL Week 2 show. We got a 0:00:36.170 --> 0:00:38.970 lot to get into. We're going to get into sharp calls. 0:00:39.890 --> 0:00:42.870 We're going to get into our brass balls bet of 0:00:42.890 --> 0:00:47.769 the week. We got some underdog and favorite round robins. 0:00:49.580 --> 0:00:53.740 Your biggest bets. Sharp versus square. Our discord grouper of 0:00:53.780 --> 0:00:59.800 the week. Join the discord by going to readthenumber.com. We're 0:00:59.900 --> 0:01:05.140 voting every week on bets I should make. Whatever we win, 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:08.500 plus a floor of five grand is going to St. 0:01:08.600 --> 0:01:11.020 Jude Children's Research Hospital. 0:01:11.040 --> 0:01:12.740 It's been a blast. 0:01:13.100 --> 0:01:19.360 Join the convo. Go to readthenumber.com. Pre-order the book. You'll 0:01:19.380 --> 0:01:20.640 get an invite to join the Discord. 0:01:20.900 --> 0:01:21.160 All right. 0:01:22.380 --> 0:01:25.620 We're going to narrow down our final five picks for 0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:28.770 the week. They will go into the Sharper Square $ 25, 000 0:01:28.670 --> 0:01:31.690 Pro Football Pick'em Contest. 0:01:31.760 --> 0:01:33.620 People are signing up. That's right. 0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:38.400 The Pick'em Contest is open, ready for your Week 2 picks. 0:01:38.680 --> 0:01:43.160 As announced on Tuesday, we're running our totally free NFL 0:01:43.200 --> 0:01:48.470 contest for the fourth consecutive season. Prize pool is $ 25, 000 0:01:47.750 --> 0:01:48.350 in cash. 0:01:48.430 --> 0:01:55.810 Contest kicks off this Sunday. Sign up sharporsquare.thevolume.com. You're going 0:01:55.830 --> 0:01:56.390 to compete. 0:01:56.990 --> 0:02:02.110 Against me and Simon all season long. Top 10 finishers 0:02:02.410 --> 0:02:06.230 gets paid. First place gets 10 grand. It's totally free. 0:02:06.250 --> 0:02:09.270 If you have any questions about the contest, check out 0:02:09.330 --> 0:02:14.440 the eight-minute bonus episode we released yesterday. Should answer all 0:02:14.480 --> 0:02:18.579 your questions. You do get to drop your worst score 0:02:18.600 --> 0:02:22.820 the first five weeks the contest is live. So if 0:02:22.860 --> 0:02:26.970 you miss a week or two, You're going to be okay. 0:02:27.120 --> 0:02:28.640 We're going to let people keep signing up. 0:02:28.919 --> 0:02:29.740 All right, Simon. 0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:33.120 Every week we discuss our picks on the show on Tuesday. 0:02:33.820 --> 0:02:36.780 And by Thursday, you've gotten an earful from your professional, 0:02:37.400 --> 0:02:40.380 fellow professionals about what they like, what they hate. Why 0:02:40.419 --> 0:02:43.160 didn't Simon agree with me? Was he mean to me? 0:02:43.700 --> 0:02:46.299 How will they bully him? We got bullied last week 0:02:46.760 --> 0:02:50.370 on the Texans. It's time for Sharp Calls. 0:02:51.000 --> 0:03:02.620 Who's there? I'm talking. A week of a lot of 0:03:02.700 --> 0:03:04.980 opinions of people. What do you believe in week one 0:03:05.320 --> 0:03:07.690 and teams you believe that come into the season. And 0:03:07.730 --> 0:03:09.609 a lot of guys are dug in on teams they 0:03:09.630 --> 0:03:11.929 believed in coming to the season. So it is, it 0:03:11.970 --> 0:03:13.690 is interesting talking to a lot of different betting groups 0:03:13.750 --> 0:03:16.549 and guys who know this is their job is having 0:03:16.590 --> 0:03:19.700 very strong opinions and backing up a very large amounts 0:03:19.740 --> 0:03:23.500 of money. So, um, a game we really weren't high 0:03:23.600 --> 0:03:25.359 on that. I think people are going to come see 0:03:25.680 --> 0:03:28.480 my side of it is last week. I remember, I 0:03:28.540 --> 0:03:29.919 think it was Sunday morning. You asked me for, we 0:03:29.940 --> 0:03:33.120 were talking about favorites we liked and I gave you 0:03:33.160 --> 0:03:35.700 the chiefs for Minnesota. You end up picking Minnesota and 0:03:35.720 --> 0:03:37.400 the chiefs one was a late ad. Like we hadn't 0:03:37.440 --> 0:03:39.760 talked much about it coming to the week. That really 0:03:39.780 --> 0:03:41.990 was a group. I respected that. It was like, okay, 0:03:43.090 --> 0:03:45.310 I can see where they're coming from. I'm maybe I 0:03:45.370 --> 0:03:48.370 am underrating too much of this chiefs team in this 0:03:48.410 --> 0:03:50.880 defense and Because that was really the pitch with Spags 0:03:51.020 --> 0:03:53.860 against Bo Nix in this matchup. Now, they were right 0:03:53.900 --> 0:03:56.640 by 1,000. I did not see that game coming the 0:03:56.680 --> 0:03:59.590 way it came. That same group I highly respect is 0:03:59.690 --> 0:04:02.590 very heavy to the Colts this week. So this is 0:04:02.630 --> 0:04:04.630 a group where I already like the Colts. I mean, 0:04:04.650 --> 0:04:06.850 we're going to get into it. There's tons of trends 0:04:06.910 --> 0:04:09.250 and tons of matchups you like for the Colts. The 0:04:09.330 --> 0:04:11.710 fact that these guys who I feel like have really 0:04:11.950 --> 0:04:14.970 nailed the Chiefs team are so heavy on this Colts team, 0:04:14.990 --> 0:04:18.520 it's like, okay. Even if I was a little hesitant about– 0:04:19.450 --> 0:04:22.560 backing Daniel Jones on this Achilles, it's really about the 0:04:22.600 --> 0:04:24.280 spot and the number. And I was like, okay, I 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:26.380 need to stop overthinking that. So that was probably the 0:04:26.420 --> 0:04:28.580 immediate call I got as soon as the show ended. 0:04:28.600 --> 0:04:30.680 It was like, you guys were way too quick on 0:04:30.700 --> 0:04:32.660 the Colts and Chiefs game. You kept it moving way 0:04:32.680 --> 0:04:34.760 too quick on that one. I was like, okay, this 0:04:34.820 --> 0:04:39.130 is clearly a position to be taking. Tonight's game, and 0:04:39.150 --> 0:04:40.350 then we'll talk a little bit more about it. A 0:04:40.390 --> 0:04:42.670 lot of pros I know are on the under. The 0:04:42.730 --> 0:04:45.010 total in this Detroit Lions game is up to 54 0:04:45.010 --> 0:04:48.240 and a half. not surprising. I mean, I'll go through 0:04:48.260 --> 0:04:49.839 the numbers and trends on that one as well. That 0:04:49.900 --> 0:04:52.220 jumped out to me, uh, games. We talked about that. 0:04:52.240 --> 0:04:56.700 The pros love jets. I mean, the shock and now 0:04:56.720 --> 0:04:58.099 shocking anyone to listen to the Sunday night show. That 0:04:58.120 --> 0:05:00.220 was five and a half. It's now down to three 0:05:00.240 --> 0:05:02.260 and a half. And now it's up to minus one 0:05:02.260 --> 0:05:06.320 15 minus one 13, a lot of books. So, I mean, it's, 0:05:06.500 --> 0:05:09.460 it looks like it's the pros and the Joes banging 0:05:09.500 --> 0:05:11.940 on this jets team here. So that's a very interesting line. 0:05:11.980 --> 0:05:14.480 Now that green Bay might be down to three by 0:05:14.500 --> 0:05:18.409 kickoff come Sunday. Uh, Minnesota, another game we talked about. 0:05:19.150 --> 0:05:21.130 I was hoping we could just avoid that one. Honestly, 0:05:21.170 --> 0:05:24.029 I'm just so hurt. It's still a Bears game last week. 0:05:24.570 --> 0:05:27.010 Not surprising here. The pros just love the Vikings here 0:05:27.029 --> 0:05:29.310 and the fact that it's a big spread in a 0:05:29.310 --> 0:05:31.370 divisional game. And we talk all the time about that. 0:05:31.430 --> 0:05:34.210 It's like, you know, you could have the greatest offense ever. 0:05:34.270 --> 0:05:36.130 Divisional games are just weird. And we've seen that all 0:05:36.150 --> 0:05:39.050 the time and time again where teams just play teams differently, 0:05:39.110 --> 0:05:42.029 play teams close. And a lot of guys will talk 0:05:42.050 --> 0:05:44.500 about that stat you gave out, Chad, that Ben Johnson, 0:05:44.510 --> 0:05:48.470 his career is 5-1. against uh you know brian flores 0:05:48.510 --> 0:05:50.890 defenses whether it be a coordinator or as a head 0:05:50.980 --> 0:05:54.460 coach which is pretty impressive uh another game that i 0:05:54.690 --> 0:05:56.720 mean you talked about i think you love more than 0:05:56.800 --> 0:05:58.860 i do because we don't know who the quarterback is 0:05:58.880 --> 0:06:01.039 a lot of guys love in atlanta with you chad 0:06:01.120 --> 0:06:05.540 that's another pro team pro spot um that's one of 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:07.180 those you truly are betting a number because you don't 0:06:07.279 --> 0:06:09.020 we are here on thursday morning no one knows who 0:06:09.060 --> 0:06:11.640 the quarterback is now it's like i don't like putting 0:06:12.339 --> 0:06:13.979 more than five figures into a team i don't know 0:06:14.000 --> 0:06:17.210 the quarterback is so Hopefully, by the time people hear this, 0:06:17.330 --> 0:06:20.350 we'll know who is back healthy, if it is Jack 0:06:20.430 --> 0:06:23.410 or if it is Cooper Rush once again. So a 0:06:23.550 --> 0:06:28.050 lot of unknowns in that one. Surprisingly, I think a 0:06:28.089 --> 0:06:30.349 lot of our fans thought it would be a real 0:06:30.430 --> 0:06:33.390 pro side in Denver. The pros actually love the Jaguars. 0:06:33.450 --> 0:06:35.330 A lot of the pros I've talked to really like 0:06:35.360 --> 0:06:37.600 the Jaguars in that game, which we are on the 0:06:37.620 --> 0:06:39.400 other side of that one. We're with the public there 0:06:39.640 --> 0:06:44.520 on Denver. And two more quick ones. Arizona, we'll dive 0:06:44.560 --> 0:06:45.800 more into that. Got a lot of calls. A lot 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:50.800 of pros love Arizona and Washington. A game where I 0:06:51.200 --> 0:06:52.940 love it and the more I dive into it, I 0:06:53.000 --> 0:06:57.110 think it's fair to say that this number is so 0:06:57.130 --> 0:06:58.650 much respect to Dak and what he's done in the 0:06:58.690 --> 0:07:02.150 past against NFC East. It's not because of that defense. 0:07:02.170 --> 0:07:04.490 They're up to four and a half. That was an 0:07:04.529 --> 0:07:06.600 interesting one where I know some groups that are on 0:07:06.620 --> 0:07:08.740 the Cowboys, but for the most part it's for Washington. 0:07:09.420 --> 0:07:12.170 A lot of love for the Dawgs and I've been 0:07:12.210 --> 0:07:14.250 asking people like, do you love any of these favorites? 0:07:14.310 --> 0:07:17.080 And I feel like most pros I talked to everyone 0:07:17.120 --> 0:07:20.540 liked Houston. And now you have potential Joe Burrow, Joe 0:07:20.580 --> 0:07:23.160 Burrow injury on top of that. It's been weird. The 0:07:23.180 --> 0:07:25.660 number hasn't really fluctuated. It stayed at two and a half, three. 0:07:25.740 --> 0:07:28.540 So that's another game. I've been following really closely, getting 0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:29.260 a lot of calls about. 0:07:29.960 --> 0:07:31.500 I'm glad the Jags came up. 0:07:32.420 --> 0:07:35.550 I want to add that to the conversation towards the 0:07:35.700 --> 0:07:38.990 end of the show. I've been wishy-washy on it the 0:07:39.010 --> 0:07:42.680 whole time. Like I, I, I, I'm such a huge 0:07:42.760 --> 0:07:48.720 Liam Cohn fan. It's hard for me to bet on 0:07:48.740 --> 0:07:51.140 the bounce back for the Broncos against Liam Cohn, but 0:07:51.160 --> 0:07:51.440 we'll see. 0:07:51.700 --> 0:07:52.560 We'll have the conversation. 0:07:53.400 --> 0:07:56.200 Our pal Stucky from over at the Action Network had 0:07:56.230 --> 0:08:01.870 a great stat. Short week two underdogs off of a loss. 0:08:02.630 --> 0:08:06.150 So underdogs catching six and a half or less, 47-29-3 0:08:06.690 --> 0:08:15.790 since 2003. The last 10 years, They've covered 28 of 0:08:15.790 --> 0:08:19.110 40 games. So we got a lot of spots like 0:08:19.170 --> 0:08:22.550 that this week, including you mentioned the Colts. 0:08:22.630 --> 0:08:23.850 So we'll dig into that. 0:08:25.650 --> 0:08:28.650 First off, Green Bay at the Jets. Look, it's been 0:08:28.710 --> 0:08:32.700 holding steady at three and a half. The more research 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:34.880 I've done this week and the more I've read and 0:08:34.940 --> 0:08:40.160 heard about how impressed the quote unquote experts were with 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:45.030 the Jets, especially their pass rush. And the pass rush 0:08:45.070 --> 0:08:50.710 is what gave the Packers fits against the Vikings. I 0:08:50.730 --> 0:08:54.230 just worry we've reached peak Jets and that the Packers 0:08:54.270 --> 0:08:58.460 have so much more to lose in this game. And 0:08:58.500 --> 0:09:02.460 it's getting to a number where, you know, especially on 0:09:02.500 --> 0:09:08.260 the road, you're essentially saying neutral field. Like, what are 0:09:08.300 --> 0:09:11.570 we talking about here? So, are the jets competitive with 0:09:11.590 --> 0:09:13.929 the Packers? Like, are we having that conversation? 0:09:16.700 --> 0:09:19.280 Yeah. I, the only hesitation for me is just be 0:09:19.500 --> 0:09:21.480 is public sediment is what I agree with you on 0:09:21.540 --> 0:09:24.460 is just that it's, there is no one that doesn't 0:09:24.480 --> 0:09:26.800 like the jets, especially here at this number. So that's, 0:09:26.880 --> 0:09:30.740 that's the fear. It's like the books aren't here to 0:09:30.780 --> 0:09:32.359 give away money, but it feels like we are in 0:09:32.400 --> 0:09:34.829 this matchup. I just, I still don't understand why this 0:09:34.870 --> 0:09:38.730 number is above three. The Packers are, are so bad 0:09:38.750 --> 0:09:40.959 they have so many weaknesses on the flip side you 0:09:42.000 --> 0:09:43.860 know the jets turned up world beaters right they beat 0:09:43.900 --> 0:09:46.580 a really bad tennessee team but they did the exact 0:09:46.940 --> 0:09:48.360 way you want to see a team do it they 0:09:48.400 --> 0:09:50.580 were great in the run game great in the past 0:09:50.600 --> 0:09:53.040 game the offensive line did really well their defensive line 0:09:53.090 --> 0:09:55.189 did really well it's like these are things you're looking 0:09:55.270 --> 0:09:57.530 for especially when you're talking about a packers team that 0:09:57.970 --> 0:09:59.830 we've talked about they don't have a good d line 0:09:59.850 --> 0:10:03.920 they don't have a good offensive line. The fear is 0:10:03.980 --> 0:10:07.240 what we've talked about. It's like most bookmakers I talk to, 0:10:07.300 --> 0:10:09.100 it's 80% of the bets, 80% of the money right 0:10:09.120 --> 0:10:11.470 now is on the Jets. It's just all Jets money. 0:10:11.780 --> 0:10:16.290 And the Packers, I think the public has just burned 0:10:16.350 --> 0:10:19.130 out on them, especially since last season. You just dive 0:10:19.150 --> 0:10:21.940 through all the numbers. Packers three and 10 against the 0:10:21.960 --> 0:10:23.840 spread on the road as a favorite of three points 0:10:23.880 --> 0:10:27.109 or more. So they've just been absolutely terrible. The last 0:10:27.150 --> 0:10:29.250 five seasons in this exact spot, they just do not 0:10:29.290 --> 0:10:31.810 cover on the road as a favorite above three. And 0:10:32.390 --> 0:10:34.550 you could say that's a little floor stat. I would 0:10:34.570 --> 0:10:36.430 have to agree with you. It's like a guy that 0:10:37.150 --> 0:10:39.510 in our minds, he's a covering machine. He's done really well. 0:10:39.550 --> 0:10:40.850 Cause you go through all the numbers and he does 0:10:40.910 --> 0:10:44.540 have great bounce back spots. This exact scenario as a 0:10:44.580 --> 0:10:47.890 big favorite on the road tends to struggle, which, I 0:10:47.950 --> 0:10:49.770 just thought it was really interesting because it's like, okay, 0:10:49.890 --> 0:10:51.750 I didn't really think about that as a team that 0:10:51.770 --> 0:10:54.260 would struggle. And then our guy, Evan Amos, had an 0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:58.480 amazing stat. Green Bay is off a loss. Obviously, New 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:01.520 York is off a win. So the Packers are the 0:11:01.720 --> 0:11:03.479 eighth team in the last 20 years to be in 0:11:03.500 --> 0:11:06.520 this exact spot. They're off a loss. Now on the road, 0:11:06.540 --> 0:11:09.620 it's a favorite against a team that just came off 0:11:10.059 --> 0:11:14.620 a win. Those previous seven, those teams all covered and 0:11:14.660 --> 0:11:17.040 won outright, which is what Green Bay would be doing. 0:11:17.730 --> 0:11:20.330 And they all covered those games by 10 points per game. 0:11:21.340 --> 0:11:25.219 So statistically the books are telling you, this is a 0:11:25.280 --> 0:11:27.199 good money maker for them. That's what I am. Just 0:11:27.220 --> 0:11:29.900 a little weary of it. It's like we're with the 0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:32.220 public right now, walking right into it, loving this jets 0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:35.080 team and all the clades. So I'm still on the jets. 0:11:35.179 --> 0:11:38.080 I haven't bought out of my position or anything like that, obviously, 0:11:38.179 --> 0:11:40.540 but this is a game. Maybe we can avoid hopefully 0:11:40.580 --> 0:11:43.440 Sunday morning because that, that stash is damning where it's 0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:46.490 basically telling us we're walking right into it. The, Previous 0:11:46.630 --> 0:11:49.650 eight times this has happened, seven in a row, the 0:11:49.670 --> 0:11:52.050 team has covered and won outright in this exact spot. 0:11:52.090 --> 0:11:55.310 So not the statistic I wanted to see as someone 0:11:55.330 --> 0:11:57.160 that wanted to invest heavily into the Jets this week. 0:11:57.780 --> 0:11:59.740 These words are going to come back to bite me 0:12:00.200 --> 0:12:03.160 when we're in the throes of it on Sunday morning. 0:12:03.179 --> 0:12:06.319 I want nothing to do with the Jets here. 0:12:08.160 --> 0:12:10.420 I just feel like last week I got all the 0:12:10.490 --> 0:12:11.270 Jets I needed. 0:12:11.290 --> 0:12:13.189 It was the exact right spot. 0:12:13.610 --> 0:12:16.489 And I feel like What you just said, the fact 0:12:16.530 --> 0:12:24.109 that they're such public dogs is warding me off this 0:12:24.210 --> 0:12:27.150 bet and warding me off this team in a moment 0:12:27.170 --> 0:12:29.929 where it really is a desperation game, I think, already 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:32.680 for the Packers. I think that locker room is down. 0:12:32.700 --> 0:12:35.100 I think the fan base is frustrated. I think there's 0:12:35.140 --> 0:12:38.360 a pattern developing with LaFleur and his team not being 0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:40.220 able to hold on to double-digit leads. 0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:42.020 This team needs to win. 0:12:42.179 --> 0:12:44.079 As bad as their offensive line is, as bad as 0:12:44.100 --> 0:12:47.130 their defensive line is, The team needs to win and 0:12:47.170 --> 0:12:48.140 needs to be impressive. 0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:51.220 I want nothing to do with the Jets. We're out. 0:12:52.460 --> 0:12:55.880 Carolina and Atlanta, though, I like that the wise guys 0:12:56.100 --> 0:12:58.940 are on my side here in the sharp calls. Listen, 0:12:58.980 --> 0:13:01.640 the Discord was lighting up on Wednesday afternoon. This is 0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:04.080 why I love the Discord, because if someone hears something, 0:13:04.100 --> 0:13:09.560 they're throwing it in there. After Kevin Stefanski declined to 0:13:09.660 --> 0:13:15.140 name a starting QB, people started wondering, is it time 0:13:15.179 --> 0:13:18.050 for the Jack Strand era to begin? And for those 0:13:18.090 --> 0:13:22.650 who don't remember, Strand was the undrafted rookie from Minnesota 0:13:22.690 --> 0:13:26.550 State who was a preseason darling for the Falcons. And 0:13:27.730 --> 0:13:29.430 I was hoping the line would move a little bit 0:13:29.830 --> 0:13:33.130 when this news came out. And Stefanski made that statement. 0:13:33.929 --> 0:13:35.630 It has not budged off of two and a half. 0:13:35.670 --> 0:13:38.260 And this was Chad's choice. I honestly haven't bet it 0:13:38.270 --> 0:13:40.540 because I just keep waiting and forget to get to three. 0:13:43.330 --> 0:13:45.210 But I like that the wise guys are lining up 0:13:45.230 --> 0:13:45.930 behind it as well. 0:13:48.650 --> 0:13:51.650 I get it, but I just– it's such a game 0:13:51.710 --> 0:13:53.370 where I know why we're betting it. It's a game 0:13:53.390 --> 0:13:54.890 where we're going to bet no matter what, but it's 0:13:54.950 --> 0:13:59.270 like I don't know what– people could confidently put money 0:13:59.290 --> 0:14:00.800 into this game. We don't know who the quarterback is. 0:14:00.820 --> 0:14:02.750 That's what's really giving me pause here. It's like I 0:14:02.890 --> 0:14:05.240 understand where you're coming from, especially on Tuesday's show, and 0:14:05.860 --> 0:14:07.780 I know why guys like this spot and this number 0:14:07.820 --> 0:14:10.660 so much. I mean, if you just fade Carolina in 0:14:10.679 --> 0:14:14.450 the exact spot, it's been incredibly profitable. like Bryce Young 0:14:14.470 --> 0:14:16.370 just does not perform well as a favorite now I 0:14:16.390 --> 0:14:18.610 know some people threw me those stats from last year 0:14:18.650 --> 0:14:21.830 where it's like were they 9-0 against the spread after 0:14:21.870 --> 0:14:24.320 a loss last year was the wonkiest year ever we 0:14:24.340 --> 0:14:27.120 literally rode that all season of betting them then fading 0:14:27.140 --> 0:14:29.040 them betting them then fading them and it literally worked 0:14:29.160 --> 0:14:32.020 out like that's just insane I don't think it's going 0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:34.480 to happen back to back seasons it's never happened before 0:14:34.860 --> 0:14:37.460 in NFL history that's just there's no there's no rhythm 0:14:37.500 --> 0:14:39.920 to football that way so I understand why people were 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:42.680 like hesitant because of last year's trends and statistics but 0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:45.020 It really is a new year, and you try to go– 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:47.480 when you try to do trends, you want longer than 0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:49.120 one year of data, right? We talk all the time 0:14:49.140 --> 0:14:51.620 about that. The longer you can stretch it out, the 0:14:51.660 --> 0:14:53.940 more it actually means something and actually matters rather than 0:14:53.980 --> 0:14:59.140 just going off one year or so. Matchup-wise, everyone's going 0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:02.000 to hope for Jack Strand because the best quarterback in 0:15:02.020 --> 0:15:03.500 the world is the one you haven't seen and you 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:07.730 know nothing about. That's people's favorite quarterback. Where I'm more of– 0:15:08.100 --> 0:15:10.100 I know he looked horrible, Cooper Rush, and he played 0:15:10.140 --> 0:15:12.740 a terrible game. I don't think he was statistically– the 0:15:12.780 --> 0:15:15.600 worst quarterback. It was either him or Stafford. They were 0:15:15.620 --> 0:15:19.500 the worst quarterback in week one. But you would hope 0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:22.680 he got the jitters out where this kid Jack has not. 0:15:22.740 --> 0:15:25.440 This would be his first start of his career at 0:15:25.480 --> 0:15:28.300 home here. So Cooper Rush, as much as you want 0:15:28.320 --> 0:15:29.680 to give him crap, he is the veteran. He's been 0:15:29.700 --> 0:15:32.680 there before. And maybe talent-wise, he's not as good as 0:15:32.700 --> 0:15:35.180 this kid Jack. But I know he's not going to 0:15:35.200 --> 0:15:37.840 be making tons and tons of stupid rookie mistakes. He's 0:15:37.860 --> 0:15:39.760 just been around the league a long time. So I'm 0:15:39.780 --> 0:15:41.800 a little torn here. I really am where it's like 0:15:41.900 --> 0:15:43.460 I want to bet this one, but I'm like you were. 0:15:43.980 --> 0:15:46.200 If it is Jack, can we get the three? Can 0:15:46.220 --> 0:15:48.220 we get the three and a half? Because originally this 0:15:48.260 --> 0:15:50.400 line was minus one and a half on the Falcons. 0:15:50.820 --> 0:15:51.120 Yeah. 0:15:51.140 --> 0:15:54.100 So the fact that it's already moved three points and 0:15:54.160 --> 0:15:56.520 you could say that's because of Tua. That's probably true, 0:15:56.660 --> 0:15:59.380 but it could keep moving. That's why I'm with you here. 0:15:59.420 --> 0:16:02.610 It's like be patient if you want to bet this one. 0:16:02.630 --> 0:16:04.490 But I think we're getting to the point here of 0:16:05.170 --> 0:16:07.490 there's a lot of dogs we like this week. It's 0:16:07.530 --> 0:16:08.890 going to be tough if we don't know who the 0:16:08.910 --> 0:16:11.690 quarterback is to really put the Falcons in our contest, honestly. 0:16:12.310 --> 0:16:13.130 Yeah. 0:16:13.230 --> 0:16:15.610 The other thing to think about with Cooper Rush, and 0:16:15.630 --> 0:16:19.180 we talked about this with the Steelers, they've got some 0:16:19.220 --> 0:16:23.900 incredible pass rushers on that team. And that's what you 0:16:23.940 --> 0:16:29.680 were seeing against the Falcons. The Panthers, no one would 0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:31.710 expect them to be as bad as they were against 0:16:31.750 --> 0:16:34.510 the Bears, but they're still not a very good team. 0:16:35.420 --> 0:16:38.450 And so Cooper Rush, in all likelihood, will look better 0:16:39.150 --> 0:16:42.290 against the Panthers than he did against the Steelers. 0:16:43.570 --> 0:16:44.850 I think what you just said. 0:16:44.670 --> 0:16:46.910 About the best quarterback in the world is the one 0:16:46.930 --> 0:16:47.620 you haven't seen. 0:16:49.340 --> 0:16:54.940 Jack Strand might be all pro after Sunday. And if 0:16:55.040 --> 0:16:57.020 we can just catch. 0:16:56.840 --> 0:16:59.300 That fallen knife with Jack Strand at plus three, I 0:17:01.170 --> 0:17:06.340 think we'd be heroes. We can be heroes. Philadelphia, seven 0:17:06.420 --> 0:17:09.800 point favorite at the Tennessee Titans. One of a handful 0:17:09.840 --> 0:17:13.460 of seven plus point favorites on the board, a road 0:17:13.540 --> 0:17:19.040 favorite at that. I know you do not want to 0:17:19.100 --> 0:17:20.400 bet a Titans game. 0:17:21.060 --> 0:17:21.880 I'm the other side here. 0:17:22.030 --> 0:17:25.030 I think this team is so lost that I can't 0:17:25.070 --> 0:17:28.250 help but bet against them. We have no evidence at 0:17:28.290 --> 0:17:34.380 this point that Cam Ward has made progress and That 0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:37.840 Jets defense, we were impressed with what they did as 0:17:37.900 --> 0:17:40.770 a pass rush. What is Jayden Carter going to do 0:17:40.830 --> 0:17:45.630 against this Tennessee team? What is that entire Eagles defense 0:17:45.670 --> 0:17:48.909 going to do against this Tennessee Titans offensive line and 0:17:48.950 --> 0:17:53.619 against Cam Ward who just continues to struggle? Before the 0:17:53.650 --> 0:17:57.080 season began, we were talking about the Titans and so 0:17:57.140 --> 0:18:01.199 many of the sacks that Cam Ward suffers from are 0:18:01.260 --> 0:18:02.260 quarterback induced. 0:18:03.060 --> 0:18:03.760 I mean, this team. 0:18:04.619 --> 0:18:07.280 They are going against the worst possible team to try 0:18:07.320 --> 0:18:11.889 to recover after a week one devastating loss. But I 0:18:11.930 --> 0:18:13.050 know it's going to be hard to get you there. 0:18:13.330 --> 0:18:15.770 I know, I know it's going to be hard to 0:18:15.810 --> 0:18:17.950 get you into the contest. I think the Eagles will 0:18:17.990 --> 0:18:21.930 be in our favorites parlay. We will hear more about 0:18:21.950 --> 0:18:24.770 the Eagles when it comes towards the discord group or 0:18:24.810 --> 0:18:29.440 later in the show. In the contest, it's seven on 0:18:29.460 --> 0:18:31.020 the boards, but in the contest, because you got to 0:18:31.040 --> 0:18:33.560 play half point lines, Simon at six and a half. 0:18:36.490 --> 0:18:39.250 Yeah, I've had a couple of people ask. I think 0:18:39.270 --> 0:18:40.649 they're new to the show. They're asking me if this 0:18:40.670 --> 0:18:42.810 is a home or pick, the fact that I'm trying 0:18:42.990 --> 0:18:45.500 to convince people back-to-back weeks the Eagles are going to win. 0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:48.760 And I just joke that, especially fans that are new 0:18:48.780 --> 0:18:51.800 to the show, I am a dire Eagles fan. It's 0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:54.380 all about the money here. I literally do not care 0:18:54.400 --> 0:18:56.800 about the Eagles at all. One of my favorite runs 0:18:56.840 --> 0:18:58.330 me and Chad ever had was we faded the Eagles 0:18:58.350 --> 0:19:00.710 for 10 straight weeks. I think it was in 2023 0:19:00.710 --> 0:19:04.010 or 2022 where we just knew they were terrible. The 0:19:04.050 --> 0:19:05.530 model knew they were terrible. We faded them all away. 0:19:06.320 --> 0:19:10.250 I faded the Eagles in the Super Bowl. I don't 0:19:10.270 --> 0:19:12.189 want people thinking that because I'm an Eagles fan. That 0:19:12.270 --> 0:19:16.590 ever affects my opinion. I always tell people, people think 0:19:16.609 --> 0:19:18.230 I hate their team. If you want to hear someone 0:19:18.270 --> 0:19:20.770 talk lovingly and sweet about your team, if you're a 0:19:21.430 --> 0:19:24.440 Browns fan, if you're a fan of Miami Dolphins, Kay 0:19:24.560 --> 0:19:27.199 Adams does a show every day. And she will tell you, 0:19:27.380 --> 0:19:29.260 you have the best team in the entire world. I 0:19:29.280 --> 0:19:31.000 will never be that guy. I will literally come in here. 0:19:31.340 --> 0:19:32.619 Even if you're a good team, I will tell you 0:19:32.720 --> 0:19:35.139 what their weaknesses are, what they suck. All that stuff. 0:19:35.400 --> 0:19:39.179 It's just no team do I dislike. There's no team 0:19:39.220 --> 0:19:42.449 that I like. Honestly, I'm all about the money here. 0:19:42.510 --> 0:19:45.790 That's all that matters to me, honestly. I hear people 0:19:45.810 --> 0:19:48.390 have these opinions where it's like, dude, I will never 0:19:48.430 --> 0:19:49.970 come here and tell people to take the Eagles because 0:19:50.480 --> 0:19:53.760 I'm a fan of this team. And, you know, trends 0:19:53.940 --> 0:19:55.740 that jumped out right away to me in this matchup 0:19:55.760 --> 0:19:57.480 were the Titans. Because I knew there were going to 0:19:57.500 --> 0:19:59.270 be some good ones. The Titans have been bad now 0:19:59.330 --> 0:20:01.429