Speaker 1: The Odd Loots podcast is brought to you by ex
Speaker 1: On Mobile Energy Lives here. Welcome to Odd Blocks. It
Speaker 1: is Monday, December seven. I'm Tracy Alloway, executive editor of
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets, and I'm Joe wasn't All Managing editor of
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets. Hey, hey, Joe, Yeah, what's this? Uh? That
Speaker 1: is a book, yes, but specifically it is a seven
Speaker 1: hundred page book on the history of interest rates. Have
Speaker 1: you read the entire thing? I actually did, and I
Speaker 1: have to tell you it is a scintillating read that
Speaker 1: encapsulates everything from Mesopotamian interest rates and three thousand BC
Speaker 1: two medieval attitudes towards usury hyper inflation in Argentina in
Speaker 1: the nineteen eighties. It's actually a pretty famous book in
Speaker 1: financial circles, and it was first written by Sydney Homer
Speaker 1: back in nineteen sixty three. Now, unfortunately Homer has passed
Speaker 1: away since then. But I'm very excited to say that
Speaker 1: the guest we have on today is Richard Silla, who's
Speaker 1: the co author on the fourth edition of this book
Speaker 1: and also a professor of economics and financial markets at
Speaker 1: n y U Stern. So we are about to embark
Speaker 1: on a rollicking six thousand year tour of the history
Speaker 1: of interest rates. So two, quick think they had interest
Speaker 1: rates back then in Mesopotamia, Like, this is not a
Speaker 1: totally modern invention. Oh Joe, You're going to learn so much.
Speaker 1: And studying interest rates could theoretically be pretty exciting right
Speaker 1: now because we may be on the verge of our
Speaker 1: first rate hike in several years. Yes, So what better
Speaker 1: way to prepare for that historic event than to go
Speaker 1: back in time and learn about Dutch interest rates in
Speaker 1: the eighteenth century. Let's do it. I'm excited, Professor Silla,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Pleasure to be here. Um.
Speaker 1: I have to ask, so, when Sydney Homer first published
Speaker 1: this book in the early nineteen sixties, that was a
Speaker 1: time when interest rates were not exactly the hot topic
Speaker 1: matter that they are now. Why do you think he
Speaker 1: wanted to look at them? Well, Son, Homer was a
Speaker 1: kind of a cultured fellow Harvard grad who had a
Speaker 1: career on Wall Street. And I think because he was
Speaker 1: highly educated, and uh, he thought, you know more than
Speaker 1: most people do about their jobs, and he wanted to
Speaker 1: know you know, he was in the bond markets, and
Speaker 1: he wanted to know, uh, you know, what was the
Speaker 1: origin of them. And for example, he had heard about
Speaker 1: the Dutch Dutch finances being important. Well exactly what was
Speaker 1: Dutch finance? And so he embarked on this history of
Speaker 1: collecting interest rates as much as he could from you know,
Speaker 1: all the recorded history up to that time, and decided
Speaker 1: to put it into one one book called the History
Speaker 1: of Interest Rates. Now, the book starts in ancient times
Speaker 1: and it starts with things like Babylonian kings setting the
Speaker 1: maximum rates of interest on loans of grain. How in
Speaker 1: the world did Homer go about collecting the data for
Speaker 1: this book, Well, he if you're talking about BABYLONEI, uh,
Speaker 1: there is a great source there which many people have
Speaker 1: heard of, but they probably don't think it has interest
Speaker 1: rates in it. It's the Code of Hammurabi. It was
Speaker 1: sort of a great code that came I think it
Speaker 1: was about eight hundred BC or something like that, so
Speaker 1: it's about four thousand years ago. And in the Code
Speaker 1: of Hammurabi it's sort of specifies that if you lend
Speaker 1: somebody money, the maximum rate you can charge them as
Speaker 1: if you lend somebody grain. Apparently people lent grain as
Speaker 1: well as money, the maximum rate was thirty three and
Speaker 1: a third percent. So how did they How did Hammurabi
Speaker 1: derive these figures? Was it a sort of finger in
Speaker 1: the wind tent seemed like the right amount, or was
Speaker 1: it something more reflective of the economy where there was
Speaker 1: there was a basis in reality. Well, I suspect that
Speaker 1: if since Hammurabi was saying this is the most you
Speaker 1: can charge, that there were a lot of lending practices,
Speaker 1: both for money and grain, and sometimes people tried to
Speaker 1: charge more than a twenty or thirty three and a
Speaker 1: third percent, and Hammurabi thought that was unreasonable, and so
Speaker 1: he sort of put a ceiling on could be charged.
Speaker 1: And I think it was probably sort of customary rates
Speaker 1: at that time. One of the things I love so
Speaker 1: much about the book is all the types of collateral
Speaker 1: that it outlays. So, for instance, there's a king of Jerusalem,
Speaker 1: Baldwin the Second, who famously pledges his beard for hypothication.
Speaker 1: And there's an ancient Greek city that um pledged its
Speaker 1: public colonnades, so when the city defaulted, the citizens couldn't
Speaker 1: walk down the colonades anymore, which just seems absolutely absurd
Speaker 1: to us. Nowadays, but there's a long history of various
Speaker 1: types of collateral being used. Yes, I think, you know,
Speaker 1: there are many, many different kinds of collateral. But the
Speaker 1: traditional main assets were precious metals and land, but I
Speaker 1: think many other things could be used as collateral, particularly
Speaker 1: for smaller loans. Of course, you're citing these the colonnade.
Speaker 1: I mean that's a sort of a public convenience, and
Speaker 1: it's interesting that they would pledge that they must have
Speaker 1: needed to borrow a lot of money, perhaps to fight
Speaker 1: a war. Nowadays, when we think about in rates, we
Speaker 1: think about, you know, there's the risk free rate, and
Speaker 1: rates often sort of move up and down across the
Speaker 1: economy with each other, they trend in the same direction.
Speaker 1: In the very early days, when you first have this
Speaker 1: data of rates and borrowing and lending, how much of
Speaker 1: the lending was sort of idiosyncratic, just a judgment of
Speaker 1: the credit risk of the borrower, and how much was
Speaker 1: this sort of general economic trend at the time. Well,
Speaker 1: in our book, I think we're talking about mostly about
Speaker 1: general economic trends because and I should point this out
Speaker 1: at the start of our conversation. The book was meant
Speaker 1: to say what were the lowest interest rates that we're
Speaker 1: prevailing at these various times in history and various civilizations.
Speaker 1: And you know what, was there a pattern to the
Speaker 1: movement of the rates, But we all know it's the
Speaker 1: world then was just like the world today. There are
Speaker 1: some basic benchmark interest rates or risk free returns we
Speaker 1: talk about in finance at the Servant School at n
Speaker 1: y U and other more risky loans are priced off
Speaker 1: of this sort of basic rate. But the thing we're
Speaker 1: trying to do mostly in the book, especially when you
Speaker 1: go far back into civilization, is to say what were
Speaker 1: the lowest rates people could borrow at at various times
Speaker 1: and four thousand years of history. Now, I mean you're
Speaker 1: talking about the lowest possible rates. That was actually a huge,
Speaker 1: huge debate both in ancient times, medieval times, and going up.
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess it continues today and that's the
Speaker 1: debate over usurally and what constitutes a fair rate of interest.
Speaker 1: Can you maybe talk a little bit about that, well, usury.
Speaker 1: You know that we've had a lot of usury laws
Speaker 1: in history, and many people trace it back to Aristotle,
Speaker 1: you know, a very great philosopher, obviously one of the
Speaker 1: greatest ever, but he had a curious idea that I
Speaker 1: think the translation of the Greek's money is barren. You know,
Speaker 1: since money is barren, money doesn't by itself have any productivity. Therefore,
Speaker 1: interest rate should be zero. When you lend something to somebody,
Speaker 1: you should not charge the interest. And uh, that was
Speaker 1: a view. I think that was not widespread, but it
Speaker 1: was a philosophical view. Then it was picked up by St.
Speaker 1: Thomas Aquinas in the Middle Ages and it became part
Speaker 1: of Catholic teaching that you should not charge people interest.
Speaker 1: You know, he got it from Aristotle and it became
Speaker 1: sort of Catholic teaching. So we come right down to
Speaker 1: the modern world where we have interest rate ceilings and
Speaker 1: not that interest rate should be zero. I think that
Speaker 1: went out a long time ago, but the modern equivalent
Speaker 1: of it to say the interest rate should not be
Speaker 1: higher than so many and when those when those usury
Speaker 1: caps were put in place by various rulers. Again sort
Speaker 1: of going back to my first question, was that just
Speaker 1: something that was that felt right on lending money, that
Speaker 1: felt like a limit that um I wouldn't be breached.
Speaker 1: I would think that, you know, the usury ceilings were
Speaker 1: sort of based on what was normal lending rates at
Speaker 1: a certain time, and maybe set around that level a
Speaker 1: little bit higher, just just so that people couldn't exploit
Speaker 1: other people. I think that the reason behind it was
Speaker 1: sometimes loans were for what we call consumption loans. There
Speaker 1: might have been a drought and the crops failed, and
Speaker 1: one idea behind the usury law was that when the
Speaker 1: crops fail, you shouldn't take advantage of a person who's
Speaker 1: having a hard time getting enough to eat by charging
Speaker 1: them interest. Are the early examples of what we would
Speaker 1: call payday lenders at some point, basically institutions specifically designed
Speaker 1: to take advantage of extraordinarily high levels of interest rates
Speaker 1: from people in desperate needs. Well, we know that the
Speaker 1: in medieval Europe, especially like in Italy, there were things
Speaker 1: like pawn shops, and I think probably there were some
Speaker 1: equivalence of that in the ancient world as well, because
Speaker 1: I mean, it's is, you know, it's a normal human
Speaker 1: need I guess to have some credit at sometimes, and
Speaker 1: you know, I think all of these ancient societies and
Speaker 1: especially even medieval and modern societies have catered to this.
Speaker 1: The thing that strikes me the most about attitudes towards
Speaker 1: what constitutes a high interest rate or not is just
Speaker 1: how much it changes throughout time. So for instance, um,
Speaker 1: I think Hammurabi set the maximum rate in something like thirty.
Speaker 1: But then we also have a Babylonian temple that was
Speaker 1: loaning silver at six and a quarter percent, and that
Speaker 1: was seen as such a low rate that it was
Speaker 1: almost a charitable deed for people. I mean, what do
Speaker 1: you think about changing attitudes towards the level of interest rates? Well,
Speaker 1: I think, you know, I think one of the patterns
Speaker 1: we found in the book is that there's sort of
Speaker 1: a you know, most of these ancient civilizations like Babylonia, Greece,
Speaker 1: and Rome, there's sort of a U shaped pattern that
Speaker 1: when when we first detect interest rates in those civilizations,
Speaker 1: they're pretty high. And then as they develop and reached
Speaker 1: their peaks, you know, like say Rome and the Age
Speaker 1: of Augustus, the interest rates moved down to a very
Speaker 1: low level. And then, for example, when the Roman Empire
Speaker 1: was declining and falling, as Edward Gibbon titled his book
Speaker 1: That Declined and Followed the Roman Empire, you begin to
Speaker 1: see the rates go up again. And this pattern we
Speaker 1: saw it in Babylonia. We saw it in Greece, we
Speaker 1: see it in Rome. Doesn't happen in the modern world
Speaker 1: as well. Right on that basis, I guess with zero
Speaker 1: percent interest in the US, we're at the peak. That's
Speaker 1: an interesting observation. Are we at the high point of
Speaker 1: our civilization? Because interest rates are so low right now?
Speaker 1: I mean that when you study this book, it sort
Speaker 1: of makes you wonder whether you know we are at
Speaker 1: some high point of civilization. I would say, with all
Speaker 1: that's going on in the world that isn't so nice,
Speaker 1: it's started to imagine we're at the high point right now.
Speaker 1: And in the early days of when people started studying
Speaker 1: interest rates, what they've been surprised by the fact that
Speaker 1: we've had basically very mediocre economy and a lot of
Speaker 1: economic deterioration, incredible amounts of debt, and yet interest rates
Speaker 1: have continued to grind lower throughout all this time. Well,
Speaker 1: I I don't think it's a big surprise, because you know,
Speaker 1: before these recent very low interest rates, the lowest rates
Speaker 1: that we talked about in in our country the United
Speaker 1: States were kind of at the end of the nineteen
Speaker 1: thirties and nineteen forty where you rates were not in
Speaker 1: early one, interest rates were not all that much higher
Speaker 1: than they are now. I mean, I think treasury bills
Speaker 1: got down to a quarter percent or something like that.
Speaker 1: But that was right before Pearl Harbor, and then when
Speaker 1: the war came, you know, things went up a little bit.
Speaker 1: What was your favorite section of the book. Well, I'm
Speaker 1: a specialist on US economic history, and so I was
Speaker 1: very interested in seeing the development of our own markets. Uh.
Speaker 1: I think rates of six and seven percent were very
Speaker 1: common in colonial America and the early United States. And
Speaker 1: you know, if somebody asked me what is the typical
Speaker 1: interest rate in US history that occurs more often than another,
Speaker 1: I would say about six percent. And I've seen a
Speaker 1: lot of that in my lifetime. And it goes back
Speaker 1: to the Alexander Hamilton who set up our financial system
Speaker 1: in the seventeen nineties. His main security when he restructured
Speaker 1: the US debt in seventeen was a six percent six
Speaker 1: percent one paid interest quarterly at at a six percent rate,
Speaker 1: and it sold that about at various times. It varied,
Speaker 1: of course, but you know, it got up to par
Speaker 1: very quickly. So for someone like me who only entered
Speaker 1: the workforce, uh, well, relatively recently, I suppose I've been
Speaker 1: living with very very low interest rates for a long time,
Speaker 1: and it kind of shocks me to hear that six
Speaker 1: percent is a normal rate, or even that tent was
Speaker 1: reached in the nineteen eighties under FED chair Paul Volker. Well,
Speaker 1: that's you know. I would say that the highest rates
Speaker 1: in American history and the lowest rates have occurred in
Speaker 1: my lifetime. You you know about the low rates. But
Speaker 1: I'm in seventy five years old now, so I was
Speaker 1: born in nineteen forty and I started by nineteen sixty
Speaker 1: or so. I'm keeping track of all these things. And
Speaker 1: by as you mentioned, by night one, interest rates would
Speaker 1: gone through the roof. There the government was borrowing at
Speaker 1: fourteen fifteen percent, and mortgage rates were eighteen percent, and
Speaker 1: treasury bills, i think, or prime rates at banks reached.
Speaker 1: But of course we had a lot of inflation and
Speaker 1: then so we sometimes we need to talk about real
Speaker 1: interest rates versus nominal interest rates. One of the things
Speaker 1: that it really fascinates me, and it's a phenomenon obviously
Speaker 1: that's been going on for a while is the perennial
Speaker 1: overestimation of where interest rates will go. So we've basically
Speaker 1: in the US we've had declining rates for several decades.
Speaker 1: Yet almost every year when Wall Street analysts are pulled,
Speaker 1: they always think interest rates are going to turn around
Speaker 1: and this will be the year that rates go higher.
Speaker 1: Looking back historically, are there any similar phenomenon where basically
Speaker 1: we saw a trend go on for an extremely long
Speaker 1: time without some kind of mean reversion, surprising a lot
Speaker 1: of people in the process. Well, I would say if
Speaker 1: you study US interest rate history and go back at
Speaker 1: least since the middle to you know, the last part
Speaker 1: of the nineteenth century, one thing we establishes that interest
Speaker 1: rates trend for maybe twenty or thirty years. They trended
Speaker 1: down in the late nineteenth century, than they turned around
Speaker 1: at the end of the nineteenth century and trend it
Speaker 1: up to about nineteen twenty. Then they trended down to
Speaker 1: nineteen forty five or forty six. Then they trended up
Speaker 1: to one those very extremely higher rates we were talking about,
Speaker 1: and from those peaks in one we got gradually back
Speaker 1: to more normal rates. And now we've gotten to these
Speaker 1: extremely low rates. So we've there are these twenty thirty
Speaker 1: year trends. If we go back to eighty one. I
Speaker 1: guess it's thirty four years that rates have trended down,
Speaker 1: and that's kind of at the high end of the trend.
Speaker 1: And so we're talking about the FED possibly raising rates
Speaker 1: soon and normalizing rates, So maybe the trend is about
Speaker 1: over all. Right, We're going to be back in one
Speaker 1: minute after a word from our sponsors. You're listening to
Speaker 1: the Odd Lots podcast, brought to you by ex On
Speaker 1: Mobile Energy lives here. So I have to ask the
Speaker 1: book ends in two thousand five, that was the fourth edition.
Speaker 1: Would you ever do a fifth edition? And if so,
Speaker 1: what would you put in it? Well, I was asked
Speaker 1: recently by the publisher John Wiley whether I would be
Speaker 1: interested in putting out a fifth edition, and because the
Speaker 1: book keeps selling every year, it's sort of a minor
Speaker 1: evergreen book and not not you know, I'm not getting
Speaker 1: rich off of this book, but I get a little
Speaker 1: check every year. And uh so the book keeps on
Speaker 1: selling and the way, of course the publishers wants to
Speaker 1: keep on selling it as to you know, updated, But
Speaker 1: I said, it's I think it's a little too early
Speaker 1: because we are just you know, maybe reaching this bottom
Speaker 1: and interest rates, and I would like to have some
Speaker 1: perspective of two or three years, let's say, of normalizing
Speaker 1: interest rates is, which is what the FED is sort
Speaker 1: of promising, you know, to get some perspective on this
Speaker 1: period we've been through, which is kind of unique in
Speaker 1: the annals of history. So I think it's a little
Speaker 1: bit too early to revise the book. Going back along
Speaker 1: back into history, you mentioned the Code of Hammurabi as
Speaker 1: being one source of interest rates. What are some other
Speaker 1: surprising places one find interest rate data recorded? Well, the
Speaker 1: Middle Ages, you know, had public debt markets in the
Speaker 1: Italian city states, for example, and so their interest rates
Speaker 1: there on public bonds, and and there were also bankers
Speaker 1: who lent money to kings, usually for fighting wars. And
Speaker 1: one of the interesting things I found was that the
Speaker 1: bankers would charge the kings and other politicians a much
Speaker 1: higher rate than they charged the merchants that they dealt with.
Speaker 1: The merchants had much better credit than the heads of
Speaker 1: state that in the modern world, usually the lowest interest
Speaker 1: rates are on government debts because the governments are you know,
Speaker 1: have taxing powers and can print money, and so you
Speaker 1: sort of feel safe holding a government bond. But there
Speaker 1: was a reverse of that in the medieval world, the
Speaker 1: merchants had good credit, they were honorable businessmen, and the
Speaker 1: kings had terrible credit. This is actually one of my
Speaker 1: favorite parts in the book. There was a reason for
Speaker 1: that right, especially in front, well in France and England
Speaker 1: and you know other places that Spain, it was a
Speaker 1: famous example. I mean, the kings would often default, you know,
Speaker 1: they would borrow the money and they wouldn't pay it back.
Speaker 1: You know, they had that in those days, something called
Speaker 1: the divine right of kings, and it seemed to be
Speaker 1: one of the divine rights of the king was not
Speaker 1: to repay people that he promised to repay. Right, so
Speaker 1: you could take out loans and then essentially banish all
Speaker 1: your bankers if you were a prince of France or
Speaker 1: Spain or as good. Yeah, it's a good life. Yeah. Well,
Speaker 1: the Italians, you know, the Italian bankers and twelve d
Speaker 1: lent money to the King of England. He didn't pay
Speaker 1: them back. So many of these early banks failed when
Speaker 1: when they didn't get their money paid back. King Philip
Speaker 1: the Second of Spain UH in the sixteenth century borrowed
Speaker 1: money for all kinds of wars and uh he defaulted
Speaker 1: but generally he defaulted on payment when it was due,
Speaker 1: but generally he paid it back a little bit later,
Speaker 1: so he kind of kept this credit. We call him
Speaker 1: a serial defaulter. He could keep on borrowing because eventually
Speaker 1: he would pay them act and I think the bankers
Speaker 1: charged him enough interests so that they came out hold.
Speaker 1: And so now we think that if a sovereign word
Speaker 1: a default, then you would then see a huge wave
Speaker 1: of default throughout the private sector of the economy at
Speaker 1: the same time, just as for knock on effects. But
Speaker 1: it wasn't necessarily the case back then. No, I think
Speaker 1: sovereign defaults then were you know, kind of they did
Speaker 1: it quite frequently, and the bankers were used to it.
Speaker 1: But you know, one way they made up for it,
Speaker 1: to see the businessman. The merchants didn't default, so they
Speaker 1: got a low rate. So you might say the insurance
Speaker 1: against the default was built into the king's interest rate,
Speaker 1: which could be two or three times higher than what
Speaker 1: businessmen could borrow it. So we've been talking about thousands
Speaker 1: of years worth of interest rates. If you were to
Speaker 1: distill all that information, all seven hundred pages of your book,
Speaker 1: into one simple pattern or takeaway for listeners of the show,
Speaker 1: what would it be? Well. The thing that impressed me
Speaker 1: about looking at all the difference realizations, and remember we're
Speaker 1: looking at the lowest interest rates, that there is an
Speaker 1: association between how well a so civilization or a society
Speaker 1: is doing in the level of its interest rates, and
Speaker 1: so when you have kind of low interest rates, it
Speaker 1: probably means that things are pretty well ordered. Now, I
Speaker 1: wouldn't say that I feel that way about our low
Speaker 1: interest rates right now, because they may be just a
Speaker 1: phenomenon of the recent financial crisis and what we had
Speaker 1: to do to fight it. But over the long period
Speaker 1: of history, you know, Greek interest rates were low in
Speaker 1: the time of Aristotle, and Roman interest rates were low
Speaker 1: in the time of Augustus. And when you look at
Speaker 1: the other low interest rate societies, you know, medieval Italy
Speaker 1: was the most financially advanced and had the lowest rates.
Speaker 1: Then you get Spain and the Netherlands, and then England
Speaker 1: and then the United States, you know, and you can
Speaker 1: sort to see that when the societies or the civilizations
Speaker 1: were doing well, they had low interest rates and then eventually,
Speaker 1: you know, the rates turn up. Now, maybe that takes
Speaker 1: a long period of time, but we tend to think
Speaker 1: our American civilization will last forever. But that isn't what
Speaker 1: history seems to indicate. Professor Silla is the co author
Speaker 1: of A History of Interest Rates, fourth edition and professor
Speaker 1: of Economics and Financial Institutions at m y U Stern.
Speaker 1: He also has a great project tracing the genealogy of
Speaker 1: financial institutions, which you can look up on the internet,
Speaker 1: and I highly recommend you do so, Professor Silla, thank
Speaker 1: you so much, my pleasure. Thank you so. Thus concludes
Speaker 1: our tour of interest rate history. Joe, I love that discussion.
Speaker 1: One thing I love about financial history discussions. You see
Speaker 1: how there are very few new debates in economics or finance.
Speaker 1: All of these things that we regard as modern, or
Speaker 1: we talk about them as though they're new, not only
Speaker 1: have they been talking about before, but often hundreds and
Speaker 1: thousands of years. Yeah. Although I did hear a lot
Speaker 1: of things in that discussion that makes me wonder if
Speaker 1: it's different this time, which is, of course, this idea
Speaker 1: that we have interest rates in thirty years cycles, and
Speaker 1: also the idea of negative interest rates. Yeah, and the
Speaker 1: idea that historically low interest rates were seen as a
Speaker 1: proxy for the health of the economy, and higher interest
Speaker 1: rates were seen as bad, which is funny because right
Speaker 1: now everyone's sort of hoping that higher rates signals a
Speaker 1: new europe economic prosperity, and yet we keep sort of
Speaker 1: getting disappointed and concerned about what it means that rates
Speaker 1: keep plunging. Yes, indeed, all right, I'm Tracy Alloway. You
Speaker 1: can follow me at Tracy Alloway on Twitter, and I'm
Speaker 1: Joe Wisenthal at The Stalwart on Twitter. Thanks so much
Speaker 1: for joining us, and please tune in next week for
Speaker 1: another episode of Odd Lots. Joe and I are very
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