WEBVTT - Markets, Travel, and Cannabis (Podcast)

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

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<v Speaker 1>my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring

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<v Speaker 1>you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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<v Speaker 1>with essential market moving news. Find a Bloomberg Markets podcast

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<v Speaker 1>called Apple Podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com Slash Podcast. Let's talk more broadly

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<v Speaker 1>about these markets, the ones that Goldman Sacks have been

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<v Speaker 1>trying to navigate over two, that look most of Wall

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<v Speaker 1>Street got pretty blindsided on. We want to talk about

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<v Speaker 1>all of this with Kelly Cox. Of course he's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be joining US US investment analyst over at Toro

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<v Speaker 1>and CALLI as we sort of digest what was a

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<v Speaker 1>brutal cross asset year in two? Are you licking wounds

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<v Speaker 1>at this moment? Are you thinking more optimistically about three?

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<v Speaker 1>Where you stand? Well, Hey, I'm a cup hatful person

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<v Speaker 1>and I think it's hard to say that. Yeah, it's

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<v Speaker 1>hard to be these days, but I think it's hard

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<v Speaker 1>to say that two wasn't painful because of that cross

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<v Speaker 1>asset sell off. Just the pain we saw a cross

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<v Speaker 1>a bunch of different markets. But I think that that

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<v Speaker 1>could pretend good things in knowing that investors are sufficiently

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<v Speaker 1>anxious and they're probably hedged going into I mean, the

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<v Speaker 1>whole talk of the whole talk of the economy this

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<v Speaker 1>year was about whether a recession is coming. So I

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<v Speaker 1>do take some comfort in the fact that a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of us are braced for that, and you know, weakness

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<v Speaker 1>may not catch us off guard. Caroline, I have a

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<v Speaker 1>real problem with Kelly Cox. She is a proud alum

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<v Speaker 1>of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and

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<v Speaker 1>as a duke person, this is really troubling. I will

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<v Speaker 1>try to power my way through it as a gentleman. Kelly.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, a lot of folks are saying there's still

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<v Speaker 1>earnings risk in this market, and this is still something

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<v Speaker 1>to market ass to deal with. How do you guys

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<v Speaker 1>think about that? Well, Paul, First of all, I respect duke.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a great grade school. We have a healthy arrival. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>I think there is quite a bit of earnings risk there.

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<v Speaker 1>We haven't seen earnings estimates come down too much UM,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think that's partially because companies have been resilient

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<v Speaker 1>UM and demand has been much healthier than expected. But

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<v Speaker 1>we're still watching federate hikes and a bunch of other

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<v Speaker 1>risks to matriculate throughout the market. Um and companies are

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<v Speaker 1>like we talked about at Goldman companies are responding. They are,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, putting their guards up a little bit, just

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<v Speaker 1>to make sure that they are prepared. If we do

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<v Speaker 1>see more weakness, again, that's a good thing that could

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<v Speaker 1>keep a floor under earnings. But I don't think the

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<v Speaker 1>weakness is quite priced in yet, and that could lead

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<v Speaker 1>to new market loads if we see some recessionary price

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<v Speaker 1>or some recessionary being priced in, Go global for US Keddy,

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<v Speaker 1>because perhaps more weakness to come in US stocks? What

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<v Speaker 1>about global stocks more broadly? Have we seen enough of

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<v Speaker 1>the pain trade there already? And then likes a europe

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<v Speaker 1>and Asian or no, so globally, I think there are

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of opportunities for U S investors if they're

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<v Speaker 1>willing to think outside of their borders. Obviously, the global

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<v Speaker 1>economy is in a more precurious position right now, with

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<v Speaker 1>some bright spots China reopening being the brighter one going

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<v Speaker 1>into the new year. But the fact that the global

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<v Speaker 1>economy is out of step with the US economy could

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<v Speaker 1>allow for some interesting diversification opportunities going into you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the fact also that you know, European markets and Asian

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<v Speaker 1>markets have priced in a lot more pain, uh, does

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<v Speaker 1>make them right for you know, more of a rebound,

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<v Speaker 1>especially if we see ourselves come out of this weakness.

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<v Speaker 1>Hey Kelly, you know, really, since I don't know the

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<v Speaker 1>Great Financial Crisis, what's really been driving this market in

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<v Speaker 1>large part with technology stocks and maybe you know more

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<v Speaker 1>narrowly defined to fang stocks and things like that, but

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<v Speaker 1>do you exp what kind of role do you expect

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<v Speaker 1>big tech to play in the next market moved to

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<v Speaker 1>the extent that we get a little bit of a

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<v Speaker 1>lift and maybe sometime in well. So tech is an

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<v Speaker 1>interesting space right now. Obviously there are a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>different flavors of tech. The big tech companies look a

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<v Speaker 1>lot different than the more speculative tech companies, and we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen that in performance throughout this year. Uh. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>as we step forward to a FED pause most likely um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, potential rate cuts in the future, because the

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<v Speaker 1>FED is insistent on getting inflation down, uh, and there

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<v Speaker 1>could be a policy change after that. I'm talking very

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<v Speaker 1>far into the future, but as we step forward to that,

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<v Speaker 1>as we prepare it for you know, a potential market

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<v Speaker 1>after this. It could be interesting to you know, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>look at those more quality tech companies, uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>big tech with strong balance sheets to get some exposure

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<v Speaker 1>to a market that's looking ahead. We don't necessarily think

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<v Speaker 1>rate cuts are on the horizon, and you know tech

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<v Speaker 1>in a higher interest rate environment. Uh, there could be

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of pain still there for a lot more

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<v Speaker 1>for the more speculative companies. But at the same time,

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<v Speaker 1>you really have to be thinking ahead here and big

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<v Speaker 1>tech could be an interesting spot to do that. And

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<v Speaker 1>then as DAK currently ap almost two percentage we speak

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<v Speaker 1>thanks to the likes of Apple, Microsoft, Tesla even getting

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<v Speaker 1>in on the action again today with an eight point

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<v Speaker 1>net change on the benchmark. But talk to us go

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<v Speaker 1>cross asset. As we see in many ways the correlations

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<v Speaker 1>of this year has been when the bond market has

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<v Speaker 1>sold off, fields risen, Nazzac has sold off, and sympathy.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you make of the bond market for coming

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<v Speaker 1>three all, we like to see yields being capped out

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<v Speaker 1>at these sorts of levels, and we like to start

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<v Speaker 1>to see a little bit of buying it these sorts

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<v Speaker 1>of numbers. Well, we're in a weird environment, but I

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<v Speaker 1>think we can all agree that inflation is slowing and

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to take a lot to you know, get

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<v Speaker 1>it back to the peak that we saw this summer,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think that's good news for bond investors, especially

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<v Speaker 1>if we do see a recession in three, which definitely

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<v Speaker 1>is not out of the question. Here, we could see

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<v Speaker 1>bonds returned to their traditional role of being that safe

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<v Speaker 1>haven asset, especially around the world for global investors. And

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<v Speaker 1>that goes back to the global economy being out of

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<v Speaker 1>step with the US economy. Um, lots of pain there,

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<v Speaker 1>but also lots of opportunity. So you know, we see

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<v Speaker 1>opportunity along bonds. Obviously shorter bonds, shorter term bonds following

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<v Speaker 1>what the FET is doing. And it doesn't look like

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<v Speaker 1>the fens gonna be hiking much more from here, so

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<v Speaker 1>we could see a return to, you know, a more

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<v Speaker 1>traditional asset correlation. All right, Kelly Cox, great stuff, Thank

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<v Speaker 1>you very much for taking the time. I guess good

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<v Speaker 1>luck to the u NC tart heels are going forward

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<v Speaker 1>this season kind of US investment analysts that tour. We

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<v Speaker 1>appreciate getting her thoughts. Ken Sha, He's Bloomberg Intelligence. He

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<v Speaker 1>covers the the consumer stuff, including cannabis for Bloomberg Intelligence.

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<v Speaker 1>He joins us via Zoom, and Whitney Batty, Josephine and

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<v Speaker 1>Billy's Cannabis Speakeasy joins us via Zoom from Los Angeles.

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<v Speaker 1>Whitney loved to get with you first here all right,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll go to Ken Shay first because he is our

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<v Speaker 1>rock rock stars. It relates to kind of covering the

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<v Speaker 1>business of cannabis can How big is this for New

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<v Speaker 1>York City? Um, you know, getting its first legal pot

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<v Speaker 1>shop and kind of how do you think that's going

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<v Speaker 1>to evolve it in New York? Yeah, Hi Paul, Happy holiday,

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<v Speaker 1>is good to see you again. Um, it is really

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<v Speaker 1>a big deal. I mean New York, it's a huge

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<v Speaker 1>Market's a highly visible market, and I think a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of other populous areas in the United States that haven't

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<v Speaker 1>legalized are gonna be watching us closely to see how

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<v Speaker 1>it pulls it off, how it does. Um, New York

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<v Speaker 1>is a large market and it has high hopes and

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<v Speaker 1>no pun intended. It looks to its neighbor New Jersey.

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<v Speaker 1>New Jersey you know legalized recreational only. Back in April,

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<v Speaker 1>it's already up to a one billion dollar run rate

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<v Speaker 1>in sales. New York's have twice the population. So you

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<v Speaker 1>put the math together and you have a really big

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<v Speaker 1>industry out of the gate. The demand is going to

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<v Speaker 1>be there. Product has been around a long time, um,

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<v Speaker 1>and so yeah, all eyes around New York. It's well,

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<v Speaker 1>themo is a visible market. To really get a sense

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<v Speaker 1>of what's going on. You do some great analysis for us,

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<v Speaker 1>and we always love it that sort of bringing together

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<v Speaker 1>some of the issues that perhaps still the spending bill

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<v Speaker 1>didn't have the marijuana banking element to it, and we

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<v Speaker 1>saw a lot of potstocks fall in the back of that.

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<v Speaker 1>That many still say to really grow this industry, they

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<v Speaker 1>need to be able to get bank loans, They need

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<v Speaker 1>to be able to get more easier access to capital.

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<v Speaker 1>But I'm interested in your perspective of why we've already

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<v Speaker 1>seen the ability when I walk outside of Bloomberg to

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<v Speaker 1>cross the store, a cross across the street and I

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<v Speaker 1>can go and get edibles, I can go and buy

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<v Speaker 1>sat marijuana related food and consumption. What is that still

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<v Speaker 1>doing now and why has it been able to do

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<v Speaker 1>that ahead of this sort of legalization. Well, New York

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<v Speaker 1>is has taken a different approach, put it that way

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<v Speaker 1>than many markets, and allowing you know, the social justice

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<v Speaker 1>theme to allow some flexibility and put it that way

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<v Speaker 1>to some operators that won't exist in many other markets.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's gonna at the consternation of the legal operators

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<v Speaker 1>and the legal operators. And look, we're paying all these taxes,

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<v Speaker 1>we're going jumping through all these hoops, we're doing a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of things here. Help us out by enforcing the

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<v Speaker 1>laws on the books that you know, you can't have

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<v Speaker 1>someone down the street selling it legally and avoiding taxes

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<v Speaker 1>if you're going if they're regulated in that eas's going

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<v Speaker 1>to compete. Well. So that's that's really going to be

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<v Speaker 1>a key issue going forward. And it also made uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, also discourage some other big entities from getting

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<v Speaker 1>into the New York, New York market until they enforce

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<v Speaker 1>those rules. Really interesting that you bring up social equity there,

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<v Speaker 1>and we thank you so much, can say, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloeme Megantelligence, and we want to dovetell into that exact

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<v Speaker 1>point because what's so interesting with this development of the

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<v Speaker 1>cannabis market here in New York is that Kathy Hokele

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<v Speaker 1>and the governor have been trying to think about how

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<v Speaker 1>it's ensured that the people who have been the past

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<v Speaker 1>perhaps been targeted for cannabis and fractions now actually managed

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<v Speaker 1>to benefit from the legalization with jobs of the opportunity.

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<v Speaker 1>And they set up a two on a million dollar

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<v Speaker 1>New York Social Equity Cannabis Investment Fund. This is something

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<v Speaker 1>that we've seen perhaps in Illinois as it started to

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<v Speaker 1>embrace legalization. How can they try to foster growth, particularly

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<v Speaker 1>among people of color, ensure that they're leading businesses. It's

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<v Speaker 1>not always worked that well of late within the licensing process,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly in Allinois. Let's talk about how it's working in

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<v Speaker 1>l A. We've got a perfect guest. Whitney Beauty is

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<v Speaker 1>with us founder and CEO Josephine and Billy's. It's the

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<v Speaker 1>first cannaby Speak easy in the US. That's for women

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<v Speaker 1>of color targeted there. You took checks from jay Z

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<v Speaker 1>Cannabis investor the parent company as well. Just talk to

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<v Speaker 1>us about your journey, Whitney, how have you found yourself

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<v Speaker 1>able to lead this sort of a business. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it has definitely not been easy to get into this space,

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<v Speaker 1>um and particularly you know, even with social equity being

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<v Speaker 1>what it is, it's really um hard for us without

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<v Speaker 1>having access to that capital to grow our businesses. I

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<v Speaker 1>mean I applied for social equity in Los Angeles in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty nineteen. UM our program here UM had a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of delays, and unfortunately we were required to hold property

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<v Speaker 1>through all of those delays, which was incredibly difficult for us,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, to sit and pay for two years UM,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, on a place that we were not allowed

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<v Speaker 1>to sell cannabis out of UM. That really hurt, especially

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<v Speaker 1>when we're talking about population that is, you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>idea of equity is that communities of color were disproportionately

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<v Speaker 1>disenfranchised by the War on drugs and thus deserved prioritization

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<v Speaker 1>and legalization and so UM. That really kind of drained

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<v Speaker 1>our funding. And when we're talking about especially equity businesses,

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<v Speaker 1>we don't have that much access to capital, as you mentioned,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I can't go down and get uh lone

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<v Speaker 1>from Bank of America. The s b A isn't offering loans.

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<v Speaker 1>Were stuck in the world where we have to be

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<v Speaker 1>able to raise money from either angel investors, which a

0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:09.640
<v Speaker 1>lot of people of color don't have in their networks,

0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:12.800
<v Speaker 1>or vcs and We know that vcs are giving about

0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:15.120
<v Speaker 1>two percent of their money to women led businesses and

0:11:15.200 --> 0:11:17.920
<v Speaker 1>points there was, there was, there was six to women

0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:20.720
<v Speaker 1>of color, and that is you know, abysmal numbers. It

0:11:20.760 --> 0:11:22.599
<v Speaker 1>makes it really hard for us to compete. So we

0:11:22.720 --> 0:11:24.360
<v Speaker 1>need give us a sense of kind of where your

0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:27.080
<v Speaker 1>business is now, what's the outlook is? As you look

0:11:27.120 --> 0:11:30.160
<v Speaker 1>ahead to the new year, I mean we're you know,

0:11:30.520 --> 0:11:32.960
<v Speaker 1>it becomes really difficult for us on a couple of

0:11:33.000 --> 0:11:35.840
<v Speaker 1>different levels. It's you know, being able to have raised

0:11:36.000 --> 0:11:38.680
<v Speaker 1>enough money. We've raised a million dollars, but really we

0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:40.840
<v Speaker 1>need to in order to be able to compete with

0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:43.959
<v Speaker 1>big MSOs that are there on the market. It's also

0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:46.840
<v Speaker 1>really difficult for us because of the tax structure here.

0:11:47.240 --> 0:11:49.520
<v Speaker 1>I you know, as a legal cannabis business, I can't

0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:53.000
<v Speaker 1>write anything off because of two a d um you know,

0:11:53.240 --> 0:11:56.200
<v Speaker 1>so that overhead is sitting on us. And also I'm

0:11:56.200 --> 0:12:00.080
<v Speaker 1>competing again with the illicit market. Um, you know, if

0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:01.959
<v Speaker 1>I'm going to have to you know, they're charging you

0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:03.440
<v Speaker 1>a hundred dollars and I have to charge you a

0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:06.240
<v Speaker 1>hundred thirty seven dollars because we have thirty seven percent

0:12:06.679 --> 0:12:10.240
<v Speaker 1>tax here. It makes it less attractive for people to

0:12:10.320 --> 0:12:12.440
<v Speaker 1>be able to buy from the legal market, and it

0:12:12.520 --> 0:12:14.520
<v Speaker 1>also makes it less attractive for those people in the

0:12:14.600 --> 0:12:17.680
<v Speaker 1>listit market to come into the legal market. Um. So

0:12:17.800 --> 0:12:21.000
<v Speaker 1>we're you know, we're concerned about what the future looks like,

0:12:21.280 --> 0:12:25.600
<v Speaker 1>especially as we see the price of plantfall um, you know, tremendously.

0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:27.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean we're talking about you know, the pounds that

0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:31.720
<v Speaker 1>we're going for four thousand dollars now, um, you know,

0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:34.640
<v Speaker 1>sub five hundred dollars. So what we were looking at

0:12:34.679 --> 0:12:38.480
<v Speaker 1>as we're building projections in is not necessarily what we're

0:12:38.480 --> 0:12:43.280
<v Speaker 1>seeing now in twenty two. We need a lot of

0:12:43.920 --> 0:12:46.960
<v Speaker 1>the obstacles you outline there so eloquently. What about some

0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:48.920
<v Speaker 1>of the help you therefore need. Is it about cracking

0:12:48.960 --> 0:12:50.840
<v Speaker 1>down on the illegal side of the business is coming

0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:53.520
<v Speaker 1>from the government. Is it about having more funds coming

0:12:53.600 --> 0:12:55.720
<v Speaker 1>from government as we're seeing here in New York to

0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:57.360
<v Speaker 1>be able to buy businesses such as he is. Is Is

0:12:57.360 --> 0:13:00.199
<v Speaker 1>it about educating vcs about angel investors to a show

0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:02.160
<v Speaker 1>that you are raising too many and rather than one.

0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:06.240
<v Speaker 1>It's about all of those things. We definitely have to

0:13:06.240 --> 0:13:09.640
<v Speaker 1>see taxes go down. It's it's critical and we need

0:13:09.679 --> 0:13:12.440
<v Speaker 1>the community to understand why that is so important. A

0:13:12.480 --> 0:13:14.960
<v Speaker 1>lot of people so legalization on the ability to tax

0:13:15.000 --> 0:13:16.839
<v Speaker 1>the heck out of us, but that's not gonna allow

0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:20.000
<v Speaker 1>this industry to survive. We have to see more capital

0:13:20.280 --> 0:13:23.040
<v Speaker 1>coming into this space and have access to it. Um

0:13:23.240 --> 0:13:26.400
<v Speaker 1>for you know, these equity businesses. Whether that means that

0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:28.720
<v Speaker 1>the state allows us to be able to have more

0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:32.640
<v Speaker 1>grant programs, more um you know, loan programs. I'm happy

0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:34.600
<v Speaker 1>to take the loan. The fact is that I cannot

0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:37.720
<v Speaker 1>do that. We don't have access to that. We definitely

0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:40.760
<v Speaker 1>needed more education on the VC side, UM you know,

0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:44.559
<v Speaker 1>businesses ran by women, businesses um ran by black women,

0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:46.640
<v Speaker 1>and we do have great success rates. We do have

0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:48.439
<v Speaker 1>the skill set out there. We just don't have the

0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:51.160
<v Speaker 1>access to capital in order to compete with someone who

0:13:51.240 --> 0:13:53.920
<v Speaker 1>is sitting on millions of dollars who can definitely drop

0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:56.480
<v Speaker 1>the price of an ape and weigh us out as

0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:59.240
<v Speaker 1>we die and then collect those licenses up. So we

0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:01.320
<v Speaker 1>need all of those things in line. And also for

0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:05.240
<v Speaker 1>equity in particular, we need technical assistance um you know,

0:14:05.320 --> 0:14:09.559
<v Speaker 1>within the community. Because the cannabis industry is highly regulated.

0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:12.680
<v Speaker 1>I'm dealing with compliance issues on a daily basis, So

0:14:12.720 --> 0:14:15.840
<v Speaker 1>if we don't have the skill set, you know, especially

0:14:15.880 --> 0:14:18.680
<v Speaker 1>because there's not necessarily a role map. This UH industry

0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:22.480
<v Speaker 1>is incredibly new. So being able to have a technical

0:14:22.520 --> 0:14:24.600
<v Speaker 1>assistance that's going to allow people to be able to

0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:27.600
<v Speaker 1>be compliant and be successful in their businesses is what

0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:31.360
<v Speaker 1>it's gonna take, UM for equity businesses to succeed. So

0:14:31.400 --> 0:14:34.800
<v Speaker 1>when it sounds like an extraordinarily challenging outlook, is there

0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:37.880
<v Speaker 1>any relief that you see after? What keeps you going?

0:14:40.160 --> 0:14:44.120
<v Speaker 1>What keeps me going is um, the people that I'm

0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:45.760
<v Speaker 1>helping at the end of the day. I came to

0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:50.240
<v Speaker 1>cannabis because I had a doctor who suggested that I

0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:54.200
<v Speaker 1>try to deal with anxiety. Um. You know, I didn't

0:14:54.280 --> 0:14:56.440
<v Speaker 1>use it when I was younger. Nancy Reagan told me

0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:58.880
<v Speaker 1>to say not to dregs. I believe sure. UM. So

0:14:59.200 --> 0:15:00.920
<v Speaker 1>it took me a while to come to this space,

0:15:00.960 --> 0:15:02.640
<v Speaker 1>and I had to do a lot of research on

0:15:02.680 --> 0:15:06.400
<v Speaker 1>the plant, learning about how to use it effectively and

0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:08.720
<v Speaker 1>also about why I felt so negatively about it. And

0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:11.000
<v Speaker 1>I didn't want the next person to have to do

0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:13.680
<v Speaker 1>that much research or have such a hard time because

0:15:13.680 --> 0:15:16.040
<v Speaker 1>what if we know for sure is that especially when

0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:19.120
<v Speaker 1>you're talking about our demographic, women are more stressed than men,

0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:22.280
<v Speaker 1>and women of color are the least most stressed cohort

0:15:22.320 --> 0:15:24.520
<v Speaker 1>out there, And yet we have the least access to healthcare.

0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:27.160
<v Speaker 1>And we do have health care. We know that the

0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:29.440
<v Speaker 1>doctors aren't necessarily listening to us, That's what the data

0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:31.800
<v Speaker 1>is saying, and we might not have money to cover that.

0:15:31.880 --> 0:15:36.000
<v Speaker 1>So being able to have safe access to affordable cannabis

0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:38.760
<v Speaker 1>within our community is also public health. Is being able

0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:41.480
<v Speaker 1>to offer that to people with anxiety was t PTS

0:15:41.680 --> 0:15:43.280
<v Speaker 1>with all the things that we know that cannabis is

0:15:43.320 --> 0:15:45.520
<v Speaker 1>good for, and so waking up and knowing that I'm

0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:48.240
<v Speaker 1>offering that in my community and giving them education that

0:15:48.400 --> 0:15:51.560
<v Speaker 1>isn't available elsewhere is what keeps me moving within this space.

0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:53.240
<v Speaker 1>All right, Whitney, we we should the best of luck

0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:56.440
<v Speaker 1>challenging situation about some interesting opportunities out there, Whitney, Baby,

0:15:56.720 --> 0:16:00.240
<v Speaker 1>Josephine and Billy's cannabis speak easy. Joining us VIA's room

0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:05.560
<v Speaker 1>from Los Angeles. So let's talk about or when you're

0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:07.320
<v Speaker 1>on your airplane, you've managed to make it to the

0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:10.320
<v Speaker 1>destination of choice, how are you feeling, how are you spending,

0:16:10.440 --> 0:16:12.480
<v Speaker 1>where are you going to spend it. Well, is it

0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:15.320
<v Speaker 1>a hotel group? Please to welcome a key CEO from

0:16:15.360 --> 0:16:18.080
<v Speaker 1>that space. Larry Kakul is President CEO b w H

0:16:18.400 --> 0:16:20.800
<v Speaker 1>Hotel Group. You knowd of course at Best Western Hotels

0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:23.480
<v Speaker 1>and Resorts, but also you're talking economy, mid scale, upscale,

0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:26.080
<v Speaker 1>upper upp up scale. I'm liking to see that that's

0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:28.720
<v Speaker 1>a turn of phrase, but also luxury and boutique segments

0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:31.000
<v Speaker 1>like you've got eighteen brands, I think it is, Larry,

0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:33.120
<v Speaker 1>are they all full? Where are you seeing the most

0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:36.400
<v Speaker 1>exuberance as we head into the new year. Well, we're

0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:40.880
<v Speaker 1>seeing exuberance across all of our markets, of course and segments.

0:16:41.160 --> 0:16:45.360
<v Speaker 1>The demand for travel is robust. We are experiencing a

0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:52.320
<v Speaker 1>tremendously successful holiday season, and we anticipate and are projecting

0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:57.120
<v Speaker 1>our most successful New Year's weekend ever as well. So

0:16:57.280 --> 0:16:59.560
<v Speaker 1>Larry talked to us about the day to day operations.

0:16:59.560 --> 0:17:04.800
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna go was something that I've noticed. No, uh,

0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:08.399
<v Speaker 1>you know, service to service the room for three four days. Now,

0:17:08.440 --> 0:17:11.080
<v Speaker 1>I know that was a byproduct of the pandemic. Are

0:17:11.119 --> 0:17:14.359
<v Speaker 1>we gonna get daily housekeeping back into the business model

0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:17.000
<v Speaker 1>or is the industry moved on to something that's maybe

0:17:17.040 --> 0:17:20.560
<v Speaker 1>every two days, every three days, every four days. At

0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:25.840
<v Speaker 1>Best Western, we encourage our hotel ears to offer everyday service. UM.

0:17:26.280 --> 0:17:32.199
<v Speaker 1>Guests have the option to request that they don't have

0:17:32.400 --> 0:17:36.479
<v Speaker 1>that service if they have their personal concerns. But we

0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:40.879
<v Speaker 1>understand that guests have diverse requests and requirements with regard

0:17:41.000 --> 0:17:45.280
<v Speaker 1>to overnight service. UM. You it's not just the COVID

0:17:45.920 --> 0:17:50.040
<v Speaker 1>I'll call it a COVID result. You also see the

0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:55.199
<v Speaker 1>hotel industry having labor challenges, which is also influencing that

0:17:55.320 --> 0:17:58.320
<v Speaker 1>overnight service that's being offered. But we encourage our hotel

0:17:58.440 --> 0:18:02.000
<v Speaker 1>yers to offer overnights of this. So one of the things,

0:18:02.119 --> 0:18:05.520
<v Speaker 1>UH Larry's as we think about travel is the leisure

0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:09.879
<v Speaker 1>travel seemed to come back pretty darn quickly, business travel

0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:11.560
<v Speaker 1>a little bit less. So what are you seeing from

0:18:11.680 --> 0:18:15.200
<v Speaker 1>your perspective for business travel as you hit into twenty

0:18:15.200 --> 0:18:19.240
<v Speaker 1>three and we're focused on midweek business, which is that

0:18:19.359 --> 0:18:24.160
<v Speaker 1>business travel UM, while it has lagged, leisure travel coming back,

0:18:24.840 --> 0:18:29.440
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing that UM businesses recognize the importance of face

0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:34.520
<v Speaker 1>to face meetings, conferences, and UM. While it's been i'll

0:18:34.560 --> 0:18:38.679
<v Speaker 1>call it lagging, the leisure return, we're looking forward to

0:18:38.680 --> 0:18:43.720
<v Speaker 1>it coming back um um two pre pandemic levels, and

0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:46.199
<v Speaker 1>which also have to consider is there's this push for

0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:49.439
<v Speaker 1>international travel as well, which plays an important role with

0:18:49.480 --> 0:18:53.080
<v Speaker 1>regard to midweek and international business travel. Let's talk about

0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:55.360
<v Speaker 1>the international travel. Let's talk about the news. It is

0:18:55.600 --> 0:18:58.399
<v Speaker 1>so fresh this week, the fact that China has basically

0:18:58.400 --> 0:19:00.639
<v Speaker 1>done a massive U turn and is now going against

0:19:00.680 --> 0:19:03.600
<v Speaker 1>its COVID zero policy. They now want to be issuing passiplets,

0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:06.520
<v Speaker 1>issuing an ability to not only enter China, but also

0:19:06.880 --> 0:19:09.080
<v Speaker 1>for the Chinese people to be back in the skies

0:19:09.119 --> 0:19:15.880
<v Speaker 1>and visiting well New York, London, different international destinations. You excited, trepidation.

0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:18.479
<v Speaker 1>What does that mean for you in your business? Well,

0:19:18.520 --> 0:19:21.280
<v Speaker 1>we're excited about it. We think Asia is a tremendous

0:19:21.359 --> 0:19:27.080
<v Speaker 1>opportunity um for the rebound, and Chinese travel plays a

0:19:27.080 --> 0:19:30.600
<v Speaker 1>major role in that. You know, we understand China has

0:19:30.680 --> 0:19:33.920
<v Speaker 1>lessened its restrictions, but you also have to understand while

0:19:33.960 --> 0:19:36.439
<v Speaker 1>you can be optimistic in that regard, there will be

0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:40.200
<v Speaker 1>some my call it compression associated with lessening in those restrictions,

0:19:40.200 --> 0:19:45.000
<v Speaker 1>and you can see that happening already with the United States, India, Japan,

0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:48.680
<v Speaker 1>Italy putting in place I'll call them testing requirements with

0:19:48.800 --> 0:19:51.960
<v Speaker 1>regard to inbound Chinese travel. So while it should have

0:19:52.000 --> 0:19:56.359
<v Speaker 1>a positive impact on international business travel and international leisure travel,

0:19:57.040 --> 0:20:00.240
<v Speaker 1>you have to be cautiously optimistic because the will be

0:20:00.320 --> 0:20:03.280
<v Speaker 1>countries that are concerned with regard to the health, welfare

0:20:03.320 --> 0:20:07.199
<v Speaker 1>and safety of their citizens. What is number one on

0:20:07.280 --> 0:20:12.359
<v Speaker 1>your sort of consumers concerns or hopes right now? Is

0:20:12.400 --> 0:20:14.560
<v Speaker 1>it that they're worried about COVID? Is it more of

0:20:14.560 --> 0:20:17.280
<v Speaker 1>the inflationary pressures? How are you expecting that to impact

0:20:17.480 --> 0:20:20.359
<v Speaker 1>post New Year? Are we going to be as desirous

0:20:20.400 --> 0:20:23.400
<v Speaker 1>to get out to spend as potentially this global recession

0:20:23.440 --> 0:20:26.800
<v Speaker 1>starts to buy. We think there's still that pent up

0:20:26.800 --> 0:20:31.160
<v Speaker 1>demand post the challenges of the pandemic that hasn't yet

0:20:31.200 --> 0:20:37.000
<v Speaker 1>been unleashed. Um, so we are optimistic about traveling again.

0:20:37.520 --> 0:20:41.600
<v Speaker 1>You have to be cautious with regard to the impact

0:20:41.640 --> 0:20:46.959
<v Speaker 1>of the Ukraine War, of inflation, fear of a recession,

0:20:47.200 --> 0:20:52.000
<v Speaker 1>which can influence consumer confidence, their supply challenges, labor challenges.

0:20:52.359 --> 0:20:56.880
<v Speaker 1>There are a lot of of unknowns that can i'll

0:20:56.920 --> 0:21:00.480
<v Speaker 1>call it influence outcome. But we're optimistic because what we

0:21:00.560 --> 0:21:04.080
<v Speaker 1>have seen is by way of example, January, February and

0:21:04.200 --> 0:21:10.320
<v Speaker 1>March exceeding pre pandemic performance with regard to occupancy and

0:21:10.359 --> 0:21:13.920
<v Speaker 1>also with regard to rate average daily rate. So while

0:21:13.920 --> 0:21:16.560
<v Speaker 1>we're very confident that we have early signs of a

0:21:16.640 --> 0:21:21.480
<v Speaker 1>tremendous three, you have to continue to monitor the pressures

0:21:21.520 --> 0:21:24.480
<v Speaker 1>on that confidence that I just mentioned. Are you mentioned

0:21:24.560 --> 0:21:26.320
<v Speaker 1>labor before? I love to get a sense of just

0:21:26.400 --> 0:21:29.560
<v Speaker 1>kind of what you're experiencing right now across your hotel groups.

0:21:29.640 --> 0:21:33.159
<v Speaker 1>Is those labor challenges, are they moderating or is this

0:21:33.200 --> 0:21:38.359
<v Speaker 1>something you're baking baking into your model for we're I

0:21:38.400 --> 0:21:40.840
<v Speaker 1>don't I wouldn't say baking it into our model. About

0:21:40.880 --> 0:21:43.919
<v Speaker 1>what we're doing is trying to help our hoteliers as

0:21:44.000 --> 0:21:46.680
<v Speaker 1>much as we can with regard to those labor challenges

0:21:47.160 --> 0:21:51.480
<v Speaker 1>by providing them assistance, training, and support with regard to

0:21:51.560 --> 0:21:55.439
<v Speaker 1>those hoteliers becoming an employer of choice UM through a

0:21:55.440 --> 0:22:00.480
<v Speaker 1>program like Because We Care program and Best Western being

0:22:00.880 --> 0:22:04.520
<v Speaker 1>a family of independent hotel owners that recognize the importance

0:22:04.560 --> 0:22:08.320
<v Speaker 1>of being good citizens in their communities and as a

0:22:08.359 --> 0:22:11.200
<v Speaker 1>result of that they can become that employer of choice

0:22:11.680 --> 0:22:15.480
<v Speaker 1>that can successfully overcome labor challenges. Larry, which hotel. You're

0:22:15.480 --> 0:22:17.920
<v Speaker 1>going to be out for me here, I'm going to

0:22:18.000 --> 0:22:22.840
<v Speaker 1>be at home. Thank you. That's a non rocking the

0:22:22.880 --> 0:22:25.040
<v Speaker 1>boat answer. We thank you. Have a wonderful time at

0:22:25.080 --> 0:22:27.280
<v Speaker 1>home celebrating in this new year, and one that seems

0:22:27.440 --> 0:22:32.920
<v Speaker 1>pretty optimistic. All right, let's switch gears. Let's take a

0:22:32.960 --> 0:22:36.080
<v Speaker 1>look at the US and European economy here as we

0:22:36.200 --> 0:22:39.600
<v Speaker 1>head into a lot of challenges that are common to

0:22:39.880 --> 0:22:41.720
<v Speaker 1>other parts of the world. But of course they also

0:22:41.840 --> 0:22:44.840
<v Speaker 1>have the geopolitical issues in Ukraine as well, and that's

0:22:44.880 --> 0:22:46.920
<v Speaker 1>impacting kind of I think forecast for a lot of

0:22:46.920 --> 0:22:50.240
<v Speaker 1>folks and outlook for We're gonna check in today with

0:22:50.280 --> 0:22:53.400
<v Speaker 1>Dean Turner. He is the chief Eurozone and UK economists

0:22:53.440 --> 0:22:58.280
<v Speaker 1>for UBS Global Wealth Management, joining us from London via zoom. Dean,

0:22:58.359 --> 0:23:00.560
<v Speaker 1>thanks so much for joining us here. You know, I

0:23:00.600 --> 0:23:06.040
<v Speaker 1>guess that the economic discussion does your is recession? No recession?

0:23:06.359 --> 0:23:09.600
<v Speaker 1>How deep will it be for the UK and Eurozone?

0:23:09.840 --> 0:23:14.560
<v Speaker 1>What's your call here for that's things stand, We still

0:23:14.600 --> 0:23:18.600
<v Speaker 1>expect to see a recession in both the Eurozone and

0:23:18.640 --> 0:23:23.119
<v Speaker 1>the UK. I wouldn't be expecting a particularly deep procession,

0:23:23.160 --> 0:23:26.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, Pike, the trough of somewhere around one percent.

0:23:26.119 --> 0:23:28.679
<v Speaker 1>But that said, I think a couple of things have

0:23:28.840 --> 0:23:32.120
<v Speaker 1>changed in the last last few weeks. The first being

0:23:32.160 --> 0:23:36.320
<v Speaker 1>that incoming data has actually been a bit better than

0:23:36.680 --> 0:23:39.480
<v Speaker 1>what we were expecting certainly, so you know, that places

0:23:39.480 --> 0:23:43.040
<v Speaker 1>some upside risks, certainly to the fourth quarter numbers, perhaps

0:23:43.040 --> 0:23:45.119
<v Speaker 1>in the first quarter as well. And I think the

0:23:45.160 --> 0:23:47.680
<v Speaker 1>other thing that, as you mentioned, you know, the war

0:23:47.760 --> 0:23:51.400
<v Speaker 1>in Ukraine and the impact that that's had on on

0:23:51.520 --> 0:23:54.920
<v Speaker 1>the our economies via the via the energy price. I

0:23:54.960 --> 0:23:57.000
<v Speaker 1>find it very interesting at the moment if you're looking

0:23:57.040 --> 0:24:00.600
<v Speaker 1>at the charts for gas prices in particular how far

0:24:00.720 --> 0:24:03.760
<v Speaker 1>they fallen in recent weeks, and you know, if that

0:24:03.960 --> 0:24:07.119
<v Speaker 1>is continued, then that probably places another bit of upside

0:24:07.200 --> 0:24:10.800
<v Speaker 1>risk in terms of the growth forecast. So as things stand,

0:24:10.800 --> 0:24:13.960
<v Speaker 1>I would still be looking for a slowdown, but I

0:24:14.000 --> 0:24:16.640
<v Speaker 1>think we have to accept that slowdown may maybe even

0:24:16.640 --> 0:24:19.639
<v Speaker 1>shallower than what we previously thought. How interesting just to

0:24:19.640 --> 0:24:22.280
<v Speaker 1>tell us about how European economy is, the UK economy

0:24:22.359 --> 0:24:24.760
<v Speaker 1>getting the grips of the inflation and what might be

0:24:24.840 --> 0:24:27.639
<v Speaker 1>soothing a little bit. As you say, when gas prices

0:24:27.680 --> 0:24:30.359
<v Speaker 1>start to fall, we have seen an awful lot of

0:24:30.440 --> 0:24:33.720
<v Speaker 1>labor tension at the moment, not most acutely in the

0:24:33.840 --> 0:24:37.119
<v Speaker 1>UK as as we so know well, but also in

0:24:37.160 --> 0:24:39.119
<v Speaker 1>Europe as well. I mean we're starting to see it

0:24:39.160 --> 0:24:41.840
<v Speaker 1>here in US as well, strike action. How much we

0:24:41.960 --> 0:24:44.320
<v Speaker 1>likely to see that being an implication to slowdown in

0:24:44.400 --> 0:24:47.159
<v Speaker 1>economies or is this really something more that grabs the

0:24:47.240 --> 0:24:51.680
<v Speaker 1>media headlines rather than impacts economies more generally. I think

0:24:51.680 --> 0:24:54.280
<v Speaker 1>we you know, we have to say that the economic

0:24:54.400 --> 0:24:58.080
<v Speaker 1>impact so far has been limited, and I would be

0:24:58.160 --> 0:25:02.920
<v Speaker 1>my expectation that going forward, um, we will we will

0:25:02.920 --> 0:25:06.720
<v Speaker 1>see more industrial action. I think that's that that's a given.

0:25:06.960 --> 0:25:08.840
<v Speaker 1>But is it going to be enough to because a

0:25:08.880 --> 0:25:11.000
<v Speaker 1>wider shock to the labor market. I don't think that's

0:25:11.040 --> 0:25:13.080
<v Speaker 1>the case. You know, this is not the nine seventies.

0:25:13.400 --> 0:25:18.919
<v Speaker 1>The percentage of workers who are unionized is much less today. Moreover,

0:25:19.240 --> 0:25:22.920
<v Speaker 1>the bargaining position of workers is it's it seems to

0:25:22.960 --> 0:25:26.240
<v Speaker 1>still be relatively weak. And you know the reason I

0:25:26.320 --> 0:25:29.800
<v Speaker 1>say that is that, yes, we are seeing um wage

0:25:29.800 --> 0:25:34.080
<v Speaker 1>increases coming through in the data, workers are successfully negotiating

0:25:34.080 --> 0:25:37.399
<v Speaker 1>a pay rise, but they're still negotiating a real terms

0:25:37.480 --> 0:25:41.960
<v Speaker 1>pay cut. So you know, until that changes, I know

0:25:42.359 --> 0:25:45.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm reluctant to change my outlook in terms of the

0:25:45.040 --> 0:25:47.720
<v Speaker 1>impact that some of the labor market titles we're seeing

0:25:47.840 --> 0:25:50.240
<v Speaker 1>we'll have over the medium term. It's here for now,

0:25:50.280 --> 0:25:52.280
<v Speaker 1>but I wouldn't expect it to build into something that

0:25:52.840 --> 0:25:55.399
<v Speaker 1>a problem over the longer term. It didn't. We actually

0:25:55.400 --> 0:25:57.359
<v Speaker 1>have the Bank of Japan just a week or so

0:25:57.400 --> 0:25:59.879
<v Speaker 1>ago kind of throwing the towel, if you will, and say, okay,

0:26:00.040 --> 0:26:03.480
<v Speaker 1>we're want to let rates go higher. Following you know,

0:26:03.520 --> 0:26:05.680
<v Speaker 1>the rest of the central banks around the world, the

0:26:05.720 --> 0:26:08.840
<v Speaker 1>Bank of England, the European Central Bank, what's your outlook

0:26:08.880 --> 0:26:12.040
<v Speaker 1>for kind of their actions in going into the new year.

0:26:13.560 --> 0:26:15.560
<v Speaker 1>I still think we we should be expecting that the

0:26:15.600 --> 0:26:18.480
<v Speaker 1>central banks are going to increase rates as we go

0:26:18.600 --> 0:26:21.720
<v Speaker 1>through the first quarter. Um. You know, certainly from the

0:26:21.760 --> 0:26:25.280
<v Speaker 1>e CPS perspective, I think that meeting in December provide

0:26:25.359 --> 0:26:28.080
<v Speaker 1>us all with a number of serprises there and if

0:26:28.080 --> 0:26:30.840
<v Speaker 1>you take them at their word, um, interest rates are

0:26:30.840 --> 0:26:34.639
<v Speaker 1>going to three percent at least in the euro Zone. UM.

0:26:34.960 --> 0:26:36.960
<v Speaker 1>I would also argue the same for the UK. You know,

0:26:37.040 --> 0:26:39.960
<v Speaker 1>we're probably looking at rates going north of four percent

0:26:40.640 --> 0:26:43.919
<v Speaker 1>UM in the first quarter of next year. But you know,

0:26:44.160 --> 0:26:47.560
<v Speaker 1>that said, we are against this backdrop of economic growth

0:26:47.600 --> 0:26:52.560
<v Speaker 1>is slowing, inflation pressures are easing. Two factors are driving that.

0:26:52.640 --> 0:26:54.439
<v Speaker 1>Let's be clear about this. You know, the first is

0:26:54.480 --> 0:26:56.720
<v Speaker 1>the base effects that we're seeing in terms of higher

0:26:56.800 --> 0:27:00.880
<v Speaker 1>energy prices from last year are starting to way down

0:27:00.880 --> 0:27:03.600
<v Speaker 1>on headline indices. But also we could demand you know,

0:27:04.080 --> 0:27:06.199
<v Speaker 1>I find it interesting when we're looking at the sum

0:27:06.280 --> 0:27:08.760
<v Speaker 1>of the survey data, which you know, survey data we

0:27:08.800 --> 0:27:10.880
<v Speaker 1>have to take with as a certain degree of caution,

0:27:11.200 --> 0:27:13.960
<v Speaker 1>but I do find it interesting that, you know, companies

0:27:14.000 --> 0:27:17.600
<v Speaker 1>already flagging a reluctance on the behalf of consumers to

0:27:17.680 --> 0:27:20.600
<v Speaker 1>accept further price rises at the current rate, so that

0:27:20.680 --> 0:27:22.320
<v Speaker 1>we could demand out look, I think is going to

0:27:22.359 --> 0:27:26.520
<v Speaker 1>compound that that downward pressure on inflation. So I'd still

0:27:26.560 --> 0:27:28.919
<v Speaker 1>be of the view that you know, the peak is

0:27:28.960 --> 0:27:32.000
<v Speaker 1>probably were well, we're closer to the peak that you know,

0:27:32.080 --> 0:27:33.840
<v Speaker 1>the end of this hike ing cycle than we are

0:27:33.840 --> 0:27:36.760
<v Speaker 1>the beginning. Accepted, there's a little bit of uncertainty around

0:27:36.760 --> 0:27:39.760
<v Speaker 1>where we're going, but I think market pricing is probably

0:27:39.800 --> 0:27:42.159
<v Speaker 1>still a little bit too aggressive for both both the

0:27:42.320 --> 0:27:45.200
<v Speaker 1>Eurozone and the UK markets. Looking for three and a half,

0:27:45.440 --> 0:27:48.680
<v Speaker 1>we suspect that that the that the ECB stops close

0:27:48.720 --> 0:27:51.879
<v Speaker 1>to three. So we've sort of talked about almost the

0:27:51.920 --> 0:27:53.960
<v Speaker 1>mandate of the central banks at the moment, the inflation

0:27:53.920 --> 0:27:55.840
<v Speaker 1>of pressures that we've talked about, the labor that we've

0:27:55.840 --> 0:27:58.000
<v Speaker 1>talked about, and indeed where you see the central banks

0:27:58.000 --> 0:28:04.040
<v Speaker 1>actions going. What about more broadly, therefore, the resiliency at

0:28:04.080 --> 0:28:06.840
<v Speaker 1>the moment, that the feeling in the market that you

0:28:07.000 --> 0:28:10.200
<v Speaker 1>get in terms of opportunities to be putting money to work,

0:28:10.200 --> 0:28:12.960
<v Speaker 1>and indeed whether the economies are likely to whether a

0:28:13.000 --> 0:28:15.120
<v Speaker 1>storm better or not. Do you think overall we are

0:28:15.119 --> 0:28:17.879
<v Speaker 1>starting to see people see value at this time or

0:28:18.000 --> 0:28:22.880
<v Speaker 1>really is a sentiment and just just still on the floor. Well,

0:28:23.080 --> 0:28:25.679
<v Speaker 1>as you take the surveys um some of the investor

0:28:25.760 --> 0:28:29.120
<v Speaker 1>surveys at face value, it would still seem that most

0:28:29.200 --> 0:28:32.639
<v Speaker 1>investors are still pretty cautious, and indeed our own positioning

0:28:32.680 --> 0:28:34.920
<v Speaker 1>is still quite a cautious one. You know, we're focused

0:28:34.960 --> 0:28:40.000
<v Speaker 1>on defensive, focused on value, focused on protecting for the

0:28:40.040 --> 0:28:43.000
<v Speaker 1>downside because as things stand from current levels, we think

0:28:43.040 --> 0:28:45.560
<v Speaker 1>there's probably you know, still still quite a high chance

0:28:45.640 --> 0:28:48.960
<v Speaker 1>that that that that we do see further volatility. But

0:28:49.480 --> 0:28:52.400
<v Speaker 1>that said, you know what what what is starting to

0:28:52.440 --> 0:28:55.360
<v Speaker 1>come through we think is that you know, sentiment is

0:28:55.400 --> 0:28:58.920
<v Speaker 1>likely to turn sooner rather than later, and our companies

0:28:58.960 --> 0:29:01.000
<v Speaker 1>a company is looking as wrong as they are perhaps

0:29:01.040 --> 0:29:03.120
<v Speaker 1>here in the have they got the right balance sheets

0:29:03.120 --> 0:29:06.840
<v Speaker 1>in place to whether it I think across the board,

0:29:06.880 --> 0:29:09.080
<v Speaker 1>if you know, I'm looking at macro data and it

0:29:09.080 --> 0:29:13.880
<v Speaker 1>would my senses, the corporate leverage for example, isn't isn't

0:29:13.920 --> 0:29:16.280
<v Speaker 1>particularly high or worrisome levels. The other the other thing

0:29:16.320 --> 0:29:18.960
<v Speaker 1>I'd note as well is the profit margins are holding

0:29:19.000 --> 0:29:22.160
<v Speaker 1>up and being far more resilient than the most people

0:29:22.200 --> 0:29:25.880
<v Speaker 1>are expecting. So yeah, perhaps there is a bit of

0:29:25.920 --> 0:29:29.200
<v Speaker 1>upside risk there, but short term we still think it's

0:29:29.240 --> 0:29:31.360
<v Speaker 1>better to be positioned a bit more defensively and a

0:29:31.360 --> 0:29:34.200
<v Speaker 1>bit more cautiously in these markets. Dean, great stuff. We

0:29:34.280 --> 0:29:37.160
<v Speaker 1>really appreciate you taking the time. Dean Turner, chief Eurozone

0:29:37.160 --> 0:29:45.480
<v Speaker 1>and UK economist at UBS Global Well Management. Thanks for

0:29:45.480 --> 0:29:49.000
<v Speaker 1>listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and

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