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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Bloomberg's Sound On. I'm
Speaker 2: Joe Matthew in Washington, where it's just as kids House
Speaker 2: and Senate around. Well, the President is here, after all,
Speaker 2: so were the turkeys. Big doings today at the White House.
Speaker 2: Not in the Rose Garden, interestingly, but on the South lawn,
Speaker 2: pardoning the national Turkey and the backup as the President
Speaker 2: celebrates his eighty first birthday. Yes, grabbing the third rail
Speaker 2: of politics along with the turkeys. Not social Security or Medicare,
Speaker 2: but his age.
Speaker 3: This is the seventy sixth anniversary of this event.
Speaker 1: I want you to know I wasn't there in the
Speaker 1: first one.
Speaker 3: I was too young to make it up.
Speaker 2: But he was live seventy six years ago. That's, of course,
Speaker 2: one of the major factors we keep hearing in this
Speaker 2: campaign as the now eighty one year old runs against
Speaker 2: the I believe seventy six year old Donald Trump. You
Speaker 2: might check me on that and big questions about the
Speaker 2: role that age may play in this campaign as the
Speaker 2: president wakes up to a new low in his approval
Speaker 2: rating according to the latest national NBC News poll that
Speaker 2: would be forty percent, and we've seen lower numbers and
Speaker 2: other polls, but for this one, not great. And we
Speaker 2: begin our conversation there with a lot of campaign news
Speaker 2: to talk about today with Kyle Condack, the managing editor
Speaker 2: of Sabado's Crystal Ball, joining us from the Center for
Speaker 2: Politics at the University of Virginia. Kyle, it's good to
Speaker 2: see you. I maybe it's a good thing he got
Speaker 2: the birthday out of the way. He doesn't have to
Speaker 2: celebrate this near an election. Is there at least that
Speaker 2: upside for Joe Biden?
Speaker 4: I mean, I guess it's also kind of a kind
Speaker 4: of a slow news week. And you know, I mean,
Speaker 4: I don't know if Biden's specific birthday matter is more
Speaker 4: than just the overall fact that a lot of Americans
Speaker 4: are just speaking tools for the job and they're concerned
Speaker 4: about his, you know, his ability to do it because
Speaker 4: of his age. And of course, you know, people do
Speaker 4: express some of the same concerns about Donald Trump, but
Speaker 4: it's always been more striking for Biden, just the higher
Speaker 4: percentage of people who are worried about his age. I
Speaker 4: frankly this because Biden maybe shows his age a little
Speaker 4: bit more than Trump. That's not to say that people
Speaker 4: are concerned about Trump for other reasons. It's just that
Speaker 4: for Biden, age does seem to be a pretty big
Speaker 4: factor here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure, forty percent of registered voters approve of
Speaker 2: his job performance, fifty seven percent disapprove. We've got numbers
Speaker 2: as well specific to foreign policy. Kylie's having trouble with
Speaker 2: young people. You spend every day around young people by
Speaker 2: the nature of your job at the University of Virginia.
Speaker 2: These are eighteen to thirty four year olds isolated in
Speaker 2: this poll to show a real spot of weakness. What
Speaker 2: does he do about that?
Speaker 4: Look, I think Biden has had trouble with younger voters
Speaker 4: going back to the twenty twenty primary season. You know,
Speaker 4: younger voters were like their sport Bernie Sanders, or you know,
Speaker 4: than the broader electorate or you know, other Democratic candidates.
Speaker 4: Of course, Biden ended up winning that primary relatively easily
Speaker 4: after a very rocky start, and of course young voters,
Speaker 4: you know rally to him in twenty twenty and are
Speaker 4: generally a pretty democratic constituency. But we've seen poll after
Speaker 4: pole lately where Biden is actually either you know, tied
Speaker 4: or losing with with Donald Trump amongst young voters. I
Speaker 4: kind of don't believe that that would actually happen in
Speaker 4: a you know, in a general election setting. I think
Speaker 4: there might be just something going on with the polls
Speaker 4: right now that that you know, or some of those
Speaker 4: folks would come home. But even if you don't believe
Speaker 4: that Trump could actually be Biden amongst young voters, which
Speaker 4: is I would describe myself, there probably is some softness
Speaker 4: there that Biden needs to uh needs to firm up.
Speaker 4: Because if there's you know, we're to you know time
Speaker 4: where American elections are very closely attested and competitive, and
Speaker 4: if there is an erosion for Biden amongst the key
Speaker 4: constituency among like young people, either they're not supporting him
Speaker 4: a high enough rate, they're bleeding over the third party candidates,
Speaker 4: or they're just not showing up, or some of them
Speaker 4: are going to Trump. Any weakness there could could be fatal.
Speaker 4: Again in an election where you'd expect that the states
Speaker 4: that decide this thing, to be to be exceedingly close.
Speaker 4: So it may be that that that that the polls
Speaker 4: are overstating the problem or not realistically presenting the problem
Speaker 4: that Biden has with young voters. But their problem still exists.
Speaker 4: And that's that's I think that that's my takeaway anyway.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, you know, and the issue of Israel appears
Speaker 2: to be a problem among young voters when it comes
Speaker 2: to Joe Biden. Progressives are concerned about the loss of
Speaker 2: civilian life, calling for an end to the bombing. We're
Speaker 2: seeing pretty robust pro Palestinian demonstrations like the one that
Speaker 2: we saw in front of d n C headquarters. On
Speaker 2: the other hand, we don't see voters making decisions based
Speaker 2: on foreign policy typically, Kyle, and I wonder how you
Speaker 2: see that, if at all, playing out in this election
Speaker 2: as an issue for young voters. Do they simply stay
Speaker 2: home if they don't see what they like?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, and you know, the younger voters, I
Speaker 4: think are are likelier than the overall electorate two basically
Speaker 4: take the side of the Palestinians or be more sympathetic
Speaker 4: to the Palestinians. And this, you know, the these disputes
Speaker 4: between between Israelis and the Palestinians. And you know whether
Speaker 4: that lasts or whether it matters next November. I mean,
Speaker 4: you know, whether this is a big focus at the
Speaker 4: time of the election next fall. I think that's an
Speaker 4: open question. But here again you have an issue where
Speaker 4: Biden is maybe taking a bit of you know, a
Speaker 4: different position than I think that some young people would take. Now,
Speaker 4: of course, you know those folks aren't going to find
Speaker 4: a you know, more support for the Palestinians or Donald
Speaker 4: Trump either in fact, right right, more pro Israeli reflexively
Speaker 4: than than than Biden is. But that's where you then
Speaker 4: wonder about some of these voters just stay at home
Speaker 4: or voting third party or whatnot. So again, it's an
Speaker 4: issue to the extent it matters among young's people, it
Speaker 4: might be hurting sort of helping to hurt Biden's numbers
Speaker 4: with that diographic.
Speaker 2: Well, if we were going to Joe Biden's birthday party
Speaker 2: and we wanted to say something nice, there are a
Speaker 2: couple of other numbers out there today worth hitting, Kyle,
Speaker 2: and I love your reaction. We've got another drop from Sienna.
Speaker 2: This is the New York Times poll that got people
Speaker 2: in a spin a couple of weeks ago about Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: It was not great for him when you started looking
Speaker 2: at swing states. In this case, it's about the hypothetical
Speaker 2: New York. This is New York State. By the way,
Speaker 2: Trump versus Biden. Biden is up by ten and maybe
Speaker 2: we shouldn't be surprised in New York. But when you
Speaker 2: add Trump versus Biden, Kennedy, and West, it's still a
Speaker 2: Biden advantage. There's another one out there today, Harvard Harris
Speaker 2: poll Kyle that shows more than half, in fact, more
Speaker 2: than sixty cent of Trump primary voters say there's at
Speaker 2: least some chance they would support a candidate other than
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. And the Republican presidential primary. We're a year
Speaker 2: out here, essentially, Kyle, and I wonder how much stock
Speaker 2: you put in any of these.
Speaker 4: You know, if you wanted to cherry pick some numbers,
Speaker 4: you could find some weakness for Trump in his own primary,
Speaker 4: you know, be it those people saying they're open to
Speaker 4: voting for other candidates. Have been some other polls that
Speaker 4: have suggested that. And yet when you actually ask about
Speaker 4: the named candidates, you know, Trump is generally well over
Speaker 4: fifty nationally and he's at least over forty in Iowa,
Speaker 4: New Hampshire, the leadoff states. And you know, there's the
Speaker 4: same kind of problem that Republicans had, and it's even
Speaker 4: it's an even bigger problem in twenty twenty four than
Speaker 4: it wasn't twenty sixteen, where you know, you could you
Speaker 4: could say, oh, well, more than half the people aren't
Speaker 4: supporting Trump and these polls, but their votes are all
Speaker 4: splintered among Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis and you know,
Speaker 4: a couple a couple of other candidates. You know, I'm
Speaker 4: curious to see if you know, we actually do see
Speaker 4: a real race in Island New Hampshire, and you know,
Speaker 4: whether that might mean anything for future contests, you know,
Speaker 4: whether Trump's support may be overstated at this point. But
Speaker 4: I mean, the numbers are what they are, and I
Speaker 4: mean Trump has been a really solid position even if
Speaker 4: you can find you know, you sometimes see this in polling.
Speaker 4: People will express support for some sort of generic outcome,
Speaker 4: but then when you give them the specifics on the
Speaker 4: candidate choices, they'll behave differently. Sometimes you know, generic Democrat
Speaker 4: or generic Republican and look really great, but of course
Speaker 4: that's not a real option.
Speaker 2: Spending time with Kyle conduct from Sabado's Crystal Ball the
Speaker 2: University of Virginia Center for Politics. You cranked out a
Speaker 2: really interesting story a couple of days ago, a piece
Speaker 2: of research from your shop about the flood of retirements
Speaker 2: that I'd like to get into with you. The latest
Speaker 2: one was Congressman Kildye of Michigan. We're seeing a lot
Speaker 2: of establishment members on both sides of the aisle call
Speaker 2: it quits, Kyle. I'm assuming it. Well, everyone's got their
Speaker 2: own reasoning here. But the more chaotic things get, the
Speaker 2: more the retirements seem to stack up. And I'm wondering
Speaker 2: where we are when it comes to D's versus ours
Speaker 2: and what impact that's going to have on the balance
Speaker 2: of power in the House and Senate in this election.
Speaker 4: Yeah, if you look at the actual competitive seats, I mean,
Speaker 4: there are a lot of retirements lately, and you know,
Speaker 4: most House seats are not competitive a general election sense,
Speaker 4: so stands the reasons that most retirements would also not
Speaker 4: really impact the general election, and that's been that's been,
Speaker 4: you know, a prominent thing among these retirements, particularly, there's
Speaker 4: been a number of Republicans from districts that just really
Speaker 4: aren't winnable for Democrats, and you know, in anything other
Speaker 4: than like a huge democratic wave sort of environment, maybe
Speaker 4: maybe even not then. But if you look at the
Speaker 4: actual competitive seats, so the only one, the only open
Speaker 4: seat right now that Republicans are defending that's really really
Speaker 4: competitive is George Santos the seat, and of course he retired.
Speaker 4: And it's not like George Santos saying he's not going
Speaker 4: to run in twenty twenty four hurts Republicans. It probably
Speaker 4: actually helps them in their quest to hold that that
Speaker 4: toss up that Joe Biden won by several points. But
Speaker 4: then if you look on the Democratic side, there are
Speaker 4: some open seats that are like in the toss up
Speaker 4: or kind of like leaning Democratic categories. You know, the
Speaker 4: most competitive races Avvigil Spanberger in Virginia seven. She is
Speaker 4: running for governor in twenty twenty five. He's not running again.
Speaker 4: You mentioned Kildee in Michigan, that's a toss up seat.
Speaker 4: Melissa Slocket running for US Senate in Michigan. She leaves
Speaker 4: behind it, you know, a narrow Biden toss up seat.
Speaker 4: Katie porter Out in California has been running for Senate
Speaker 4: for a while. That's another open seat that, while Democratic
Speaker 4: leaning at the presidential level, it performs a little bit,
Speaker 4: you know, i'd say significantly more competitively down ballot. So
Speaker 4: as Democrats try to piece together a House majority next year,
Speaker 4: which they're perfectly capable of winning, they do have just
Speaker 4: more sort of open seat defense to play. And you know,
Speaker 4: retirements often will spike at this time of year. You know,
Speaker 4: people go home for the holidays, they reassess things, they
Speaker 4: wonder whether they're going to come back or not. Filing
Speaker 4: deadlines are approaching in some places, and a lot of
Speaker 4: people just decide not to come back. I'm curious to
Speaker 4: see if there are any other retirements that significantly impact
Speaker 4: the you know, the competitive battlefield. You know, the Kildee
Speaker 4: retirement Michigan is definitely one of those, because I think
Speaker 4: he would have probably still had a competitive race as
Speaker 4: an incumbent, but I think he would have been favored.
Speaker 4: Whereas now like that that seat is like fifty to fifty.
Speaker 2: You did adjust your rating. While it may not be
Speaker 2: a surprise for West Virginia Senate after Joe Manson announced
Speaker 2: his plans, Kyle, what will it mean for the balance
Speaker 2: of power in the Senate.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was just focusing on the House there. But
Speaker 4: of course, the you know, the probably the most certainly
Speaker 4: the most meaningful Senate retirement was Joe Mansion recently. And
Speaker 4: that's a you know, that's a that goes from a
Speaker 4: you know, just a slightly leaning Republican race with Mansion
Speaker 4: on the ballot to you know, basically no doubt save
Speaker 4: Republican pick up. And you know, we've seen this in
Speaker 4: some previous cycles, when you know, Republicans have won the Senate,
Speaker 4: like at twenty fourteen, there were a few red state
Speaker 4: Democratic retirees and Republicans ended up winning those seats easily,
Speaker 4: including in West Virginia in twenty fourteen when Jay Rockefeller retired,
Speaker 4: Shelley Moore Capito, a Republican, ended up winning that seat
Speaker 4: quite comfortably. And I suspect that probably Jim Justice, the
Speaker 4: sitting governor, you know, is favored to get nominated in
Speaker 4: favor to flip that seat next year. So that would
Speaker 4: make if nothing else changes, that would make the Senate
Speaker 4: fifty to fifty continent on the vice president, and the
Speaker 4: Republicans have some other attractive targets, specifically in Trump won state.
Speaker 4: So John Tester and Montana and Shared Brown in Ohio.
Speaker 4: The a number of other kind of late blue state
Speaker 4: Democratic Senate incumbents who are you know for tough races
Speaker 4: next year? The Republicans don't have a lot of defense
Speaker 4: to play. Maybe Ted Cruz in Texas, maybe Rick Scott
Speaker 4: and Florida. But you know, Senate, I think, is you know,
Speaker 4: looking pretty decent for Republicans? All I can remember saying
Speaker 4: that in some past cycles and it didn't necessarily come
Speaker 4: through for them.
Speaker 2: Man a seminar this Monday with Kyle Condick. Great to
Speaker 2: have you, Kyle, always a great pleasure to spend some
Speaker 2: time and get your view from Sabado's Crystal Ball at
Speaker 2: the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Great Thanksgiving, I'm
Speaker 2: sure it'll be a beautiful one in Charlottesville. As we
Speaker 2: assemble our panel, Genie Shanzana and Rick Davis are with
Speaker 2: us Bloomberg Politics contributors. We just talked about a lot
Speaker 2: with Kyle. It's going to take us the better part
Speaker 2: of the hour to unpack all of it, and we
Speaker 2: shall with our signature panel. Genie eighty first birthday. By
Speaker 2: the way, James checks me, Donald Trump is seventy seven.
Speaker 2: I guess birthdays in June eighty one years old? Is
Speaker 2: he not better for getting this out of the way now?
Speaker 5: Yeah, and get it out of the way, do it
Speaker 5: as quietly as possible. But boy, that NBC poll was
Speaker 5: not much of a birthday gift, Joe. I don't know
Speaker 5: what you got for your birthday, but hopefully it was
Speaker 5: far better than NBC game than Joe Biden, because that
Speaker 5: really really was not what you want. And it's the numbers,
Speaker 5: as you just talked about, pretty bad for Biden.
Speaker 2: So what's the bigger turkey than Rick Davis, the one
Speaker 2: that was on the table being pardon today or the
Speaker 2: commander in chief going into this reelection?
Speaker 3: I think that if Joe Biden had his way, he'd
Speaker 3: like to be the one being pardoned and the turkey
Speaker 3: running for reelection. Because I got to tell you these
Speaker 3: numbers out of the NBC poll, I mean, like, I
Speaker 3: know where you're out.
Speaker 2: I know these aren't LIKELI movies. I know all the
Speaker 2: problems we have with these.
Speaker 3: Surveys, but I must tell you forty one percent of
Speaker 3: Democrats disapprove of the job their president is doing. I mean,
Speaker 3: like that that just screams out loud, like watch out
Speaker 3: there in your rear view mirror. They're coming for you.
Speaker 2: A lot more ahead with Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano.
Speaker 2: That's why we're here. I'm Jill Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 2: The turkeys this year we're named Liberty and Bell. After
Speaker 2: spending the night and the posh Willard Hotel as they
Speaker 2: do each year in this annual tradition. Yeah, these are turkeys.
Speaker 2: They are then pardoned by the Commander in chief so
Speaker 2: they can go live on their lives in a peaceful retirement.
Speaker 2: The president today not in the rose garden. Interestingly, they
Speaker 2: actually went out on the south lawn for this one.
Speaker 2: Massive turkeys.
Speaker 3: That's a big bird man. It's I hereby pardon Liberty
Speaker 3: and Bell.
Speaker 2: Yes, and now we can all live to I guess
Speaker 2: eat turkey later this week, Happy eighty first birthday to
Speaker 2: the president. If you're just joining us, though, he's facing
Speaker 2: some pretty rough polling data. Not that that's new, but
Speaker 2: well it is in this case in terms of a
Speaker 2: new low when it comes to his approval rating. Rick
Speaker 2: Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are with us year on this
Speaker 2: Monday to kick off Thanksgiving Week Bloomberg Politics contributors and Genie.
Speaker 2: I'll be curious your take on this as a political scientist.
Speaker 2: What actually has your attention in this poll and what
Speaker 2: does not, Because obviously young people are not happy with
Speaker 2: the president right now, when it comes to Israel, when
Speaker 2: it comes to student loans, when it comes to a
Speaker 2: lot of different issues. When you start going into other demographics,
Speaker 2: there are great concerns about his age that persist, as
Speaker 2: well as his handling of the economy. What's your takeaway
Speaker 2: from this poll from NBC News.
Speaker 5: You know, I think one thing that really jumped out
Speaker 5: on the foreign policy front was just what you mentioned.
Speaker 5: Eighteen to thirty four year olds, he's fifty points underwater,
Speaker 5: seventy percent disapproval on his handling of what's going on
Speaker 5: in terms of fore foreign policy. Rather Israel, Gaza, of course,
Speaker 5: I think you know, as you look back at the
Speaker 5: previous NBC polls, what also jumps out is this is
Speaker 5: the first time he is losing to Donald Trump. Of course,
Speaker 5: it's still within the margin of error, but that is
Speaker 5: a bad sign. I think one of the things we
Speaker 5: keep hearing from Democrats is that, well, don't worry. In
Speaker 5: twenty eleven, Barack Obama, he wasn't doing well, but he
Speaker 5: was able to pick it up. But never once was
Speaker 5: he losing to a Republican. And that's where Joe Biden
Speaker 5: unfortunately finds himself yesterday, the day before his birthday. So
Speaker 5: those numbers are really really troubling.
Speaker 6: I also have some.
Speaker 5: Good news, if we can talk good news, or like
Speaker 5: maybe the sky isn't falling since it's Thanksgiving, I'll say later.
Speaker 5: But so I don't want to leave it all negative.
Speaker 6: But it's a concerning pole.
Speaker 2: Yes it is, uh Rick, you just weighed in on
Speaker 2: that a couple of moments ago, And I wonder what
Speaker 2: would be your biggest concern? Is it losing young people
Speaker 2: as a Democrat because they tend to more closely align
Speaker 2: with your politics, and this is a president who's tried
Speaker 2: to embrace their politics sometimes, in the case of student loans,
Speaker 2: not only not always to their satisfaction. Or are you
Speaker 2: more concerned about older people knowing that young people are
Speaker 2: not terribly reliable on election day?
Speaker 3: Yeah, look, I'm kind of the ladder, you know.
Speaker 2: I leave young people to Genie.
Speaker 3: She has to teach them. Obviously she's not doing her
Speaker 3: job right, as the Democrats would would believe, because they
Speaker 3: are definitely not liking this guy, Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: But they don't vote.
Speaker 3: They don't show a propensay to vote every chance they
Speaker 3: have to show up and really turn an election other
Speaker 3: than on abortion and referendums that off your elections, you know,
Speaker 3: they just they they stick to their issues, right, abortion,
Speaker 3: gay marriage, cannabis, the stuff that really gets them out
Speaker 3: presidential politics doesn't. I mean, I think they have the
Speaker 3: right attitude. I mean, presidential politics is meaningless to most
Speaker 3: of them, and that shows up in a lot of
Speaker 3: the polling. So it's not surprising to me that that
Speaker 3: that Uncle Joe's getting a bad shake with young voters.
Speaker 3: But that's not what's got him worried. What's got him
Speaker 3: worried is their own base. Uh, the the idea that
Speaker 3: Democrats are sort of bailing on this guy. When you
Speaker 3: look at the matchups with with Trump, Trump isn't moving
Speaker 3: up at all. Right, he is exactly where he's been
Speaker 3: all year long. It's where Biden is headed. And that's
Speaker 3: a digression of independent voters and his base Democrats. Now
Speaker 3: you have to assume the Democrats are going to come back, right,
Speaker 3: I mean, you get through all this primary stuff, and
Speaker 3: when you've got a head to head if it is
Speaker 3: Donald Trump and and and Joe Biden. And by the way,
Speaker 3: Biden's got a lot easier path to his nomination and
Speaker 3: Trump does. Even though we all assume Trump's going to
Speaker 3: be the nominated at this stage, you know, then those
Speaker 3: Democrats likely will come home. If they don't, that is
Speaker 3: the number one issue for Biden. He can't even start
Speaker 3: thinking about independent voters unless he's got his base intact.
Speaker 2: Well, this might help with the bass.
Speaker 1: Jeanie.
Speaker 2: The President was reportedly close to over the weekend a
Speaker 2: deal to see more hostages released, potentially a good number
Speaker 2: of hostages from Gaza. Today, he was asked about that
Speaker 2: at the Turkey event. He was working the rope line
Speaker 2: and a reporter you'll hear yelling at him the President's
Speaker 2: response here he is.
Speaker 6: There is a hostage deal.
Speaker 1: There was a president is a hostage deal there.
Speaker 4: I believe so I'm not.
Speaker 2: Yes, I believe so, he said. Then when asked you
Speaker 2: believe so, he said yes and held up his crossed fingers,
Speaker 2: hoping that there would be some news here. Jennie, how
Speaker 2: important will that be for progressives to see that development
Speaker 2: assuming it happens. Yeah, then the.
Speaker 5: Band leader really struck up that music when he was
Speaker 5: trying to answer. I love that. You know, it's critically
Speaker 5: because those are the kinds of things that can change
Speaker 5: really really quickly, results like the one we've seen in
Speaker 5: this poll. And so if we do see a hostage
Speaker 5: return safely, if we do see a pause, say a
Speaker 5: five day pause that goes along with that, that will
Speaker 5: help the president. And you know, that is what we
Speaker 5: have to keep in mind. Not only is it early,
Speaker 5: not only is this a national poll, but events find
Speaker 5: a way of transforming what we're seeing here. And you know,
Speaker 5: I also think we heard from Senator Blumenthal over the
Speaker 5: weekend and he said something really really critically important, and
Speaker 5: that is as much as people are discontented in the
Speaker 5: United States, and not just Democrats, Republicans, independents. The most
Speaker 5: important thing is to see how they're behaving at the polls,
Speaker 5: and what have we seen. Democrats have been coming out
Speaker 5: and they have been winning, whether it's Kentucky, whether it's Ohio.
Speaker 5: We just saw this happen the other day. That matters
Speaker 5: their behavior at the polls and the organization that got
Speaker 5: them out there so Democrats could perform. Democrats have been
Speaker 5: over performing in elections. So there are some good signs
Speaker 5: for Democrats out there. This poll is not necessar necessarily
Speaker 5: one of them, but there are other things that can
Speaker 5: change the trajectory. Events and what's been happening at the polls.
Speaker 5: And in defense of young people, they do have a
Speaker 5: lot to offer and they do get out to vote,
Speaker 5: and I think they will get out to vote. They
Speaker 5: of course, are discontented by a lot of things going on,
Speaker 5: and I think rightly so, so we I think should
Speaker 5: listen to them very very carefully.
Speaker 2: Well, you wonder if more of them should be running
Speaker 2: rick with the number of retirements that we're seeing here.
Speaker 2: I talked to Kyle Condick about that a little while ago.
Speaker 2: I believe we're in excess of thirty lawmakers now at
Speaker 2: this point. Representative Kildy added his name to the list
Speaker 2: last week that many will remember for Joe Manchin announcing
Speaker 2: what's your take on the impact that this will have
Speaker 2: on the campaign trail to balance the power here in Washington,
Speaker 2: or is Kyle Wright? A lot of these seats will
Speaker 2: stay right with the party now occupying them.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 7: Sure.
Speaker 3: I don't think anybody's predicting this to be a swing
Speaker 3: election in the sense that you know, there's any one
Speaker 3: party that has a significant advantage going into the cycle.
Speaker 3: You know, we're just now entering one year into election day,
Speaker 3: So I don't get the impression that posters are telling
Speaker 3: us that there's going to be a significant move.
Speaker 2: So you would assume.
Speaker 3: That in most of these cases, they're going to be
Speaker 3: pretty much the same kinds of candidates that win the
Speaker 3: nomination that will then try to contest for these open seats.
Speaker 3: I would say to watch out for because the one
Speaker 3: thing that has changed cyclical elections is Donald Trump, and
Speaker 3: that's for the worse, not for the better. There have
Speaker 3: been many cycnical races, like just the midterms a year ago,
Speaker 3: that Donald Trump was able to get some of his
Speaker 3: own weaker Republican candidates nominated because he controls a lot
Speaker 3: of primary voters and that hurt our ability to contest election.
Speaker 3: So we haven't talked much about, you know, the Trump
Speaker 3: campaign and their operation trying to load up his kind
Speaker 3: of candidates for these seats. But we could anticipate that
Speaker 3: that's going to happen. It's happening right now, and if
Speaker 3: we put weaker candidates into these open seats, we can't
Speaker 3: assume that we're going to hold them, and Democrats will
Speaker 3: take advantage of that, just like they did in the midterm.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: We have found Kayley Lines. It's been a couple of days.
Speaker 2: She's very busy, but we found her back here on
Speaker 2: the fastest show in politics. Happy Thanksgiving Week. It's lovely
Speaker 2: to see you. There's new polling data, not only on
Speaker 2: the campaigns today, and we had we had some good
Speaker 2: stuff that we were just going through with the panel,
Speaker 2: but fascinating from Quinnipiac. You're gonna be with family. I
Speaker 2: hope this Thanksgiving indeed, because they don't want you to
Speaker 2: talk about politics. Did you see it?
Speaker 6: Yeah? I did.
Speaker 2: I don't know if that would normally be your bag,
Speaker 2: or if you're talking football like normal people.
Speaker 6: A little bit of both.
Speaker 2: Six out of ten say they're hoping to avoid discussing
Speaker 2: politics because basically everyone remembers what happened last.
Speaker 6: Year, right.
Speaker 8: I would count myself as one of those six out
Speaker 8: So you would rather not well, mostly because I talk
Speaker 8: politics all day.
Speaker 6: It's literally my job, yes, you know, in office. I'd
Speaker 6: rather just talk about anything.
Speaker 2: That's also why everybody wants to talk to you about it,
Speaker 2: well exactly, and you get that whole. I know you
Speaker 2: don't want to you do this all day, but I
Speaker 2: just need to know what's your take on blah blah blah.
Speaker 8: That was Thanksgiving for me last year with crypto okay, ftx,
Speaker 8: so that was well.
Speaker 2: I'm with the twenty nine percent say they're looking forward
Speaker 2: to discussing politics because you know, in our house and
Speaker 2: our family, it doesn't matter which side this thing is
Speaker 2: going to break down into a fight anyway, so you
Speaker 2: may as well get it. You know, let's let's do
Speaker 2: it over something that counts before everybody starts grabbing the
Speaker 2: coats and storming out. And now Kaylee knows a little
Speaker 2: more about what it's like to be in my house.
Speaker 2: I can't wait the stuffing at the circuit such fun.
Speaker 8: You have three days to brace yourself and get all
Speaker 8: your arguments exactly.
Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely, I don't. I bet you Jack doesn't have
Speaker 2: this problem. Does appropriations come up at the at the Thanksgiving?
Speaker 9: I want to know if there's going to be a shutdown.
Speaker 9: I surely see the family in Virginia. If you're in
Speaker 9: the DC area, you want to know if restaurants could
Speaker 9: be closing down, if they're near a federal building. We
Speaker 9: all care if it's going to be a shutdown. Fortunately,
Speaker 9: we don't have the same questions. Usually when I see
Speaker 9: family around the holidays, it's like a Christmas shutdown deadline,
Speaker 9: And at least we don't have that. But I do
Speaker 9: get those questions.
Speaker 2: So you're you're home free this this year. They don't
Speaker 2: relatively bring it up until January, if they even I
Speaker 2: don't know, is everyone assuming the way we are that
Speaker 2: the government's going to shut down in January. Maybe that's
Speaker 2: not what happens, But they might want you to explain
Speaker 2: what a laddered cr is that might come up before
Speaker 2: the game. And also, you know kind of where we
Speaker 2: started here, because there was a lot of talk about
Speaker 2: a honeymoon for Mike Johnson at the beginning, and people
Speaker 2: are thinking things might feel a little different after we
Speaker 2: eat our turkey and come back to Washington.
Speaker 9: What do you think, Yeah, it's there are a lot
Speaker 9: of challenges. I don't know if this devolves into a
Speaker 9: shutdown or just the lack of a deal that requires
Speaker 9: a full year continuing resolution. It's a little too early
Speaker 9: to say what happens if things break down and how
Speaker 9: they break down, but it I think the honeymoon is
Speaker 9: pretty much over for Johnson. Not that people are itching
Speaker 9: for a shutdown, not that they're trying to kick him out.
Speaker 9: It's not the same as it was with McCarthy. But
Speaker 9: there's some frustration from the conservative hardliners who basically gave
Speaker 9: him a runway here and said, you know, well, now
Speaker 9: we want something really good. We want spending cuts in
Speaker 9: an actual funding deal, and that is not easy for
Speaker 9: him to negotiate. So there's a shorter leash at least
Speaker 9: right now.
Speaker 8: Well, in one of those conservative members. Congressman Bob Good
Speaker 8: of Virginia is the one who vocally, repeatedly has said
Speaker 8: that a government shutdown wouldn't actually be so bad. It's
Speaker 8: not something that needs to be feared. And he, when
Speaker 8: the Continuing Resolution passed, said that Johnson promised he's not
Speaker 8: going to do another CR and that basically he intends
Speaker 8: to hold him to that, which leaves what two options, though, Jack,
Speaker 8: if you can't kick the can down the road again,
Speaker 8: it's either sort out of the appropriations bills or shut
Speaker 8: down the parts of government whose funding is expired. There's
Speaker 8: no third option, really, is there?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 9: That is him taking away the third option. The third
Speaker 9: option would be another Continuing Resolution and buying more time.
Speaker 9: And if he is making that promise and sticking to it,
Speaker 9: which I think we could still say is an outstanding question,
Speaker 9: then there's only two options. And they made it more
Speaker 9: difficult on themselves by not only setting two deadlines, but
Speaker 9: they had to decide ahead of time which bills they
Speaker 9: need to enact by January nineteenth, in which ones they
Speaker 9: need to enact by February second. There's no magic in
Speaker 9: that decision saying oh, well, you picked four bills that
Speaker 9: you want to strike a deal on in January. Therefore
Speaker 9: you have a deal. It's very difficult. Now they're locked
Speaker 9: into saying we have less flexibility. We need a deal
Speaker 9: on the four bills that we've predetermined, and then we
Speaker 9: get to work on the other eight. So they've given
Speaker 9: them some less flexibility than usual under a cr unbelievable.
Speaker 9: I hope you get a long weekend or something since
Speaker 9: everyone's out of town.
Speaker 2: Is that part of the job, Yes, part.
Speaker 1: Of the deal.
Speaker 9: Fortunately, first time since twenty twelve that there hasn't been
Speaker 9: a December funding deadline. Incredible, So I am enjoying it.
Speaker 2: Well, jeez, all right, we'll have happy Turkey, and thank
Speaker 2: you Jack for being a Palin helping us understand all
Speaker 2: this fine Jack's work, of course, Bloomberg Government, Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew along with Kaylee Lines. I wonder what
Speaker 2: Mick thinks about this. I think Mick is with me
Speaker 2: in the twenty nine percent. I mean, there's no way,
Speaker 2: Mick Malveney, you can't hide from politics on Thanksgiving. That's
Speaker 2: all anyone in your family wants to talk about.
Speaker 7: Right, Absolutely not, Joe, what are you talking about?
Speaker 10: We've got you've got listen between politics, football, turkey and napping.
Speaker 7: I mean politics is coming in and just fourth in
Speaker 7: my house.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I mean, if i'm your family member, you're
Speaker 2: the one guy I know who's got an answer to
Speaker 2: these things. They don't want to talk about Trump and
Speaker 2: what happened in the Congress and apparently not.
Speaker 10: Hi twenty three year old triplets. Do you think they
Speaker 10: want to talk about politics and what daddy does for
Speaker 10: a living.
Speaker 2: I'm thinking about the relatives though obviously we don't need
Speaker 2: to dwell on this. I mean, it's the extended family
Speaker 2: that ends up banging out of Thanksgiving. What do you
Speaker 2: think about the honeymoon here? What's what does Mike Johnson
Speaker 2: do during the holiday break? Is he on the phone
Speaker 2: with members every day?
Speaker 7: I hope so?
Speaker 10: And by the way, what he's not doing over the
Speaker 10: holiday is raising money. We could talk about that another time.
Speaker 10: Is to you know that there's a bunch of different
Speaker 10: job descriptions to be the speaker, and one of them
Speaker 10: is to be the leading fundraiser for your party.
Speaker 7: And Mike, who seems you know, he's very deep in
Speaker 7: the policy. This ladder cr is very creative.
Speaker 10: I get all of that but is he out there
Speaker 10: raising you know, the millions of dollars the party needs
Speaker 10: over the holidays to help keep the majority that would
Speaker 10: remain to be seen. So, no, he looks like he's
Speaker 10: on the phone or I expected to be on the
Speaker 10: phone talking about different possibilities with different sort of the
Speaker 10: five families within the Republicans.
Speaker 7: If he's not, he's not doing his job.
Speaker 8: Well, okay, So if he's doing his job or not
Speaker 8: in the interimke it still is a question of how
Speaker 8: long he gets to keep the job.
Speaker 10: Right.
Speaker 8: We had a whole conversation when the Continuing Resolution was
Speaker 8: getting off the ground that oh wow, he gets to
Speaker 8: pass a clean CR with Democratic support when Kevin McCarthy
Speaker 8: did not. I just wonder how far that grace realistically
Speaker 8: is going to extend.
Speaker 10: MEC I can't imagine very much further. I thought it
Speaker 10: would be better than this, Kaylee. I really did, because
Speaker 10: I talked to folks on the Hill and they're like, yeah,
Speaker 10: there'd be a honeymoon period when he give him a while.
Speaker 10: And I was surprised at how short that went, at
Speaker 10: least for some folks. I still think the appetite for
Speaker 10: another speaker battle is very very low right now. But
Speaker 10: I also know that, which is that the tensions are
Speaker 10: extraordinarily high. I've been to Washington a little bit recently.
Speaker 10: You go over to the Capitol Hill Club, the Republican Club,
Speaker 10: and the tension is palpable in the building. This is
Speaker 10: usually a place that folks would go to sort of
Speaker 10: unwind and you know, you might fight during the day,
Speaker 10: but you go and have dinner together at the end
Speaker 10: of the night.
Speaker 7: And that's just not happening.
Speaker 10: So that the fractures within the Republican Party right now
Speaker 10: in the House are absolutely real. And my guess is
Speaker 10: for Mike Johnson that speaks to a much shorter honeymoon period,
Speaker 10: because you're exactly right. I mean, somebody has to ask
Speaker 10: the question, how would it have been different if Kevin
Speaker 10: McCarthy was still in charge?
Speaker 7: And right now the answer is not very.
Speaker 2: Wow. I can only imagine the stuff you hear at
Speaker 2: the Capitol Hill Club. What are the factions at this point? Mick.
Speaker 2: You know, we like to talk about the fact that
Speaker 2: you're co founder of the Freedom Caucus and that you
Speaker 2: have a sense of I guess the pulse in that group,
Speaker 2: but that's not even a single group anymore. Has this
Speaker 2: come down to individual lawmakers in their positions against the speaker.
Speaker 10: Yeah, there's a lot of that, and by the way,
Speaker 10: both parties struggle with that. You know that there's a
Speaker 10: longer discussion to be had about misaligned incentives and what
Speaker 10: sort of people run for office now and do people
Speaker 10: actually go to Washington to be lawmakers and legislators? Do
Speaker 10: they go to Washington to become famous? And social media
Speaker 10: sort of you know, fantastics. There's a lot of individuality
Speaker 10: out there right now.
Speaker 7: You've got a lot of.
Speaker 10: Individuals playing what is traditionally a team sport, especially in
Speaker 10: the House, and it is having a negative effect. I've
Speaker 10: kind at least four groups. You've got the Freedom Caucus folks.
Speaker 10: Then you've got the folks who are further out of
Speaker 10: the right than the Freedom Caucus or the anarchist wing.
Speaker 10: That's the Matt Gates wing of the party. You've got
Speaker 10: the more traditional conservatives and the Republican Study Committee. You've
Speaker 10: got this main Street folks who are sort of the centrist.
Speaker 10: And then you've got the Appropriators, which is an entirely
Speaker 10: different group. So Mike's got a lot of Mike Johnson's
Speaker 10: got a lot of different interests to balance, and he
Speaker 10: doesn't have a lot of experience with that, and he
Speaker 10: doesn't have a lot of good will built up. Now
Speaker 10: that being said, he doesn't have a lot of negative
Speaker 10: will either. You know, there's folks who say that Kevin
Speaker 10: lied to them, and they're not saying that about Mike.
Speaker 10: But Kevin also had two decades worth of good will
Speaker 10: built up that Mike's not had a chance to do yet.
Speaker 8: Well, that was the whole conversation around how he got
Speaker 8: the gavel in the first place. Maybe it was less
Speaker 8: about how many friends he had, but how few enemies. Mick,
Speaker 8: As we talk about the challenges that Johnson is facing
Speaker 8: and keeping his conference together, it's not just a spending fight.
Speaker 8: He has to navigate or questions around funding for Israel
Speaker 8: and Ukraine. He is going to in very short order
Speaker 8: when they return from the holiday, have to deal with
Speaker 8: an expulsion resolution from for Congressman George Santos, the Republican
Speaker 8: from New York. Of course, there was that scathing Ethics
Speaker 8: Committee report released last week resulted in the chair of
Speaker 8: the Ethics Committee putting forward this expulsion resolution. You think
Speaker 8: Santos is done.
Speaker 10: Mick, I do Actually, I think that's probably the easiest
Speaker 10: thing for him to deal with. That sort of puts
Speaker 10: the rest of it in perspective, an expulsion of one
Speaker 10: of your own members at a time when you have
Speaker 10: an extra ordinarily narrow margin. But my guess is that
Speaker 10: George is probably gone. There's just no there's especially now
Speaker 10: in light of the of the Ethics Committee findings and
Speaker 10: so forth, he'll be gone and that may, you know,
Speaker 10: at least for a short period of time, takes the
Speaker 10: margin down by another seat. Now, I thought you were
Speaker 10: going to go kaily to the impeachment issues and the
Speaker 10: other investigations and so forth as to whether or not
Speaker 10: that you know, that's that's not a spending issue. It's
Speaker 10: not a government shutdown issue. But it's something they're going
Speaker 10: to have to deal with because there are going to
Speaker 10: be swing members centrist members of Mike Johnson's party who
Speaker 10: don't want to deal with that because I think it's
Speaker 10: a negative in their in their races. So that's going
Speaker 10: to be that's going to be another battle he's got
Speaker 10: to face beyond just spending. But I think Santos is
Speaker 10: the low hanging fruit. By the way I think it
Speaker 10: speaks volumes to either party when they're willing to hold
Speaker 10: their own accountable. I have a great deal of respect
Speaker 10: for some of the Democrats in the Senate what they've
Speaker 10: said about Menendez, and I have a great deal respect
Speaker 10: for a lot of the Republicans who have come out
Speaker 10: against George Santos in light now this of this ethics finding.
Speaker 10: So my guess is, in a strange, bizarre kind of way,
Speaker 10: that's going to be the easiest thing that Mike Johnson
Speaker 10: has to do with over Christmas and Thanksgiving.
Speaker 2: Sounds like you would have voted to expel if you
Speaker 2: were still there, Mick.
Speaker 1: Is that right?
Speaker 7: Well, I think they've done it the right way.
Speaker 10: They didn't vote to expel before the due process had run,
Speaker 10: but now that the Ethics Committee finding is out there,
Speaker 10: they've got some you know, I think that's the right
Speaker 10: way to look at it. Is it beyond the pale
Speaker 10: that there might be one member out of five hundred
Speaker 10: and thirty five in the House and the Senate who
Speaker 10: is just so twisted that he shouldn't be there.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that's a possibility.
Speaker 10: And when your own delegation in your own home state,
Speaker 10: from your own party are telling people you need to go.
Speaker 10: That's when you sort of wake up and say, you
Speaker 10: know what, maybe it's better if we move on.
Speaker 2: Sounds like you were about to say yes, yeah.
Speaker 6: Is that a two hundred word answer of yes.
Speaker 7: Mick, Yeah, yeah.
Speaker 10: Listen, I've done two thousand if you really want to
Speaker 10: be a filibuster. But yeah, I think he's probably.
Speaker 8: Said, wow, all right, well you brought up the impeachment.
Speaker 6: Do you think that's going to go.
Speaker 10: Disappointed that George Santos might be leaving and what we
Speaker 10: lose the ability to help?
Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, well now you're in These are competing interests.
Speaker 2: I mean, my goodness, you know how many shows he's
Speaker 2: helped to populate here. Uh, but you know, we'll do
Speaker 2: it's best for the institution, Mick. I think that's what
Speaker 2: Kaylee would have said.
Speaker 6: That's what Mike Johnson said.
Speaker 8: He wants members to consider what is best for the
Speaker 8: institution just quickly, Mick, is what best is best for
Speaker 8: the institution impeaching a president of the opposite party, Again.
Speaker 7: It just depends what the evidence is.
Speaker 10: Keep in mind, there's a difference between an impeachment inquiry,
Speaker 10: which is what is going on now, and an impeachment
Speaker 10: and if they find the Republicans find evidence during the
Speaker 10: impeachment inquiry.
Speaker 7: That that justifies an impeachment. I think that's okay.
Speaker 10: If you were just doing an impeachment inquiry, sort of
Speaker 10: check the box of something you will going to do. Anyway,
Speaker 10: I think that's a different story. My biased opinion is
Speaker 10: I thought that's what the Democrats were doing with with
Speaker 10: Donald Trump.
Speaker 7: They were going to impeach him. They ran, many of.
Speaker 10: Them did on impeaching him, so they're sort of laying
Speaker 10: the foundation for doing what they were going to do. Anyway,
Speaker 10: if you're going to impeach the president, there needs to
Speaker 10: be a really good reason for that needs to be
Speaker 10: a high crime and misdemeanor. If they found that and
Speaker 10: there's been some pretty damning evidence, or at least evidence
Speaker 10: that might be damning against President Biden, then yeah, then
Speaker 10: that's fine. But you can't it can't be seen as
Speaker 10: a pretext to do something you wanted to do against
Speaker 10: your political ally enemies.
Speaker 2: We always want your biased opinion. That's the whole point here. McKay.
Speaker 2: We're out of time. You're going to be in Iowa,
Speaker 2: in New Hampshire, right.
Speaker 10: I'm actually going to Alabama for the next Republican debate.
Speaker 7: News Nation.
Speaker 10: The nice folks over there have got that. So I
Speaker 10: get a chance to go down to Alabama. All over the.
Speaker 2: So so we'll get back to us then because we
Speaker 2: want to see you in Iowa and New Hampshire. We've
Speaker 2: got a lot of campaign stuff to talk about in
Speaker 2: the next couple of weeks. Here Mick Malvanny, Happy Thanksgiving,
Speaker 2: Mick happy Turkey. I know they won't be talking about politics.
Speaker 6: No politics in his house, naps.
Speaker 2: What's wrong with my family? This is Bloomberg. Thanks for
Speaker 2: listening to the Sound On podcast. Make sure to subscribe
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