1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,320 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,719 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listening on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,840 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:17,480 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Bloomberg's Sound On. I'm 6 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,279 Speaker 2: Joe Matthew in Washington, where it's just as kids House 7 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:23,440 Speaker 2: and Senate around. Well, the President is here, after all, 8 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 2: so were the turkeys. Big doings today at the White House. 9 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:30,400 Speaker 2: Not in the Rose Garden, interestingly, but on the South lawn, 10 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 2: pardoning the national Turkey and the backup as the President 11 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 2: celebrates his eighty first birthday. Yes, grabbing the third rail 12 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 2: of politics along with the turkeys. Not social Security or Medicare, 13 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 2: but his age. 14 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 3: This is the seventy sixth anniversary of this event. 15 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:52,559 Speaker 1: I want you to know I wasn't there in the 16 00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 1: first one. 17 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:56,000 Speaker 3: I was too young to make it up. 18 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 2: But he was live seventy six years ago. That's, of course, 19 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 2: one of the major factors we keep hearing in this 20 00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:11,319 Speaker 2: campaign as the now eighty one year old runs against 21 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,680 Speaker 2: the I believe seventy six year old Donald Trump. You 22 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 2: might check me on that and big questions about the 23 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 2: role that age may play in this campaign as the 24 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:25,440 Speaker 2: president wakes up to a new low in his approval 25 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:29,680 Speaker 2: rating according to the latest national NBC News poll that 26 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,600 Speaker 2: would be forty percent, and we've seen lower numbers and 27 00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 2: other polls, but for this one, not great. And we 28 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 2: begin our conversation there with a lot of campaign news 29 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:40,760 Speaker 2: to talk about today with Kyle Condack, the managing editor 30 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 2: of Sabado's Crystal Ball, joining us from the Center for 31 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:46,320 Speaker 2: Politics at the University of Virginia. Kyle, it's good to 32 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 2: see you. I maybe it's a good thing he got 33 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 2: the birthday out of the way. He doesn't have to 34 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 2: celebrate this near an election. Is there at least that 35 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 2: upside for Joe Biden? 36 00:01:58,320 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 4: I mean, I guess it's also kind of a kind 37 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 4: of a slow news week. And you know, I mean, 38 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 4: I don't know if Biden's specific birthday matter is more 39 00:02:05,560 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 4: than just the overall fact that a lot of Americans 40 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 4: are just speaking tools for the job and they're concerned 41 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:13,160 Speaker 4: about his, you know, his ability to do it because 42 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:14,920 Speaker 4: of his age. And of course, you know, people do 43 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 4: express some of the same concerns about Donald Trump, but 44 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 4: it's always been more striking for Biden, just the higher 45 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 4: percentage of people who are worried about his age. I 46 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:25,200 Speaker 4: frankly this because Biden maybe shows his age a little 47 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 4: bit more than Trump. That's not to say that people 48 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 4: are concerned about Trump for other reasons. It's just that 49 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 4: for Biden, age does seem to be a pretty big 50 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:33,680 Speaker 4: factor here. 51 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure, forty percent of registered voters approve of 52 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:41,239 Speaker 2: his job performance, fifty seven percent disapprove. We've got numbers 53 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:44,920 Speaker 2: as well specific to foreign policy. Kylie's having trouble with 54 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:48,799 Speaker 2: young people. You spend every day around young people by 55 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 2: the nature of your job at the University of Virginia. 56 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 2: These are eighteen to thirty four year olds isolated in 57 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,760 Speaker 2: this poll to show a real spot of weakness. What 58 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 2: does he do about that? 59 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 4: Look, I think Biden has had trouble with younger voters 60 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 4: going back to the twenty twenty primary season. You know, 61 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 4: younger voters were like their sport Bernie Sanders, or you know, 62 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 4: than the broader electorate or you know, other Democratic candidates. 63 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 4: Of course, Biden ended up winning that primary relatively easily 64 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 4: after a very rocky start, and of course young voters, 65 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 4: you know rally to him in twenty twenty and are 66 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 4: generally a pretty democratic constituency. But we've seen poll after 67 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 4: pole lately where Biden is actually either you know, tied 68 00:03:28,560 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 4: or losing with with Donald Trump amongst young voters. I 69 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:34,639 Speaker 4: kind of don't believe that that would actually happen in 70 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 4: a you know, in a general election setting. I think 71 00:03:37,440 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 4: there might be just something going on with the polls 72 00:03:39,240 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 4: right now that that you know, or some of those 73 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 4: folks would come home. But even if you don't believe 74 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 4: that Trump could actually be Biden amongst young voters, which 75 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 4: is I would describe myself, there probably is some softness 76 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 4: there that Biden needs to uh needs to firm up. 77 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 4: Because if there's you know, we're to you know time 78 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:01,839 Speaker 4: where American elections are very closely attested and competitive, and 79 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 4: if there is an erosion for Biden amongst the key 80 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 4: constituency among like young people, either they're not supporting him 81 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 4: a high enough rate, they're bleeding over the third party candidates, 82 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 4: or they're just not showing up, or some of them 83 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 4: are going to Trump. Any weakness there could could be fatal. 84 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 4: Again in an election where you'd expect that the states 85 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 4: that decide this thing, to be to be exceedingly close. 86 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 4: So it may be that that that that the polls 87 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:29,040 Speaker 4: are overstating the problem or not realistically presenting the problem 88 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:33,160 Speaker 4: that Biden has with young voters. But their problem still exists. 89 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:35,960 Speaker 4: And that's that's I think that that's my takeaway anyway. 90 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, you know, and the issue of Israel appears 91 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:42,120 Speaker 2: to be a problem among young voters when it comes 92 00:04:42,160 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 2: to Joe Biden. Progressives are concerned about the loss of 93 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:50,040 Speaker 2: civilian life, calling for an end to the bombing. We're 94 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 2: seeing pretty robust pro Palestinian demonstrations like the one that 95 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 2: we saw in front of d n C headquarters. On 96 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 2: the other hand, we don't see voters making decisions based 97 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 2: on foreign policy typically, Kyle, and I wonder how you 98 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 2: see that, if at all, playing out in this election 99 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 2: as an issue for young voters. Do they simply stay 100 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:14,599 Speaker 2: home if they don't see what they like? 101 00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:18,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, and you know, the younger voters, I 102 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 4: think are are likelier than the overall electorate two basically 103 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:24,599 Speaker 4: take the side of the Palestinians or be more sympathetic 104 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:28,720 Speaker 4: to the Palestinians. And this, you know, the these disputes 105 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 4: between between Israelis and the Palestinians. And you know whether 106 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 4: that lasts or whether it matters next November. I mean, 107 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 4: you know, whether this is a big focus at the 108 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 4: time of the election next fall. I think that's an 109 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:44,279 Speaker 4: open question. But here again you have an issue where 110 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:46,160 Speaker 4: Biden is maybe taking a bit of you know, a 111 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:48,800 Speaker 4: different position than I think that some young people would take. Now, 112 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:51,159 Speaker 4: of course, you know those folks aren't going to find 113 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:53,720 Speaker 4: a you know, more support for the Palestinians or Donald 114 00:05:53,760 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 4: Trump either in fact, right right, more pro Israeli reflexively 115 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 4: than than than Biden is. But that's where you then 116 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:02,839 Speaker 4: wonder about some of these voters just stay at home 117 00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:06,200 Speaker 4: or voting third party or whatnot. So again, it's an 118 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,000 Speaker 4: issue to the extent it matters among young's people, it 119 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:12,840 Speaker 4: might be hurting sort of helping to hurt Biden's numbers 120 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 4: with that diographic. 121 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 2: Well, if we were going to Joe Biden's birthday party 122 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 2: and we wanted to say something nice, there are a 123 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:20,920 Speaker 2: couple of other numbers out there today worth hitting, Kyle, 124 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:24,480 Speaker 2: and I love your reaction. We've got another drop from Sienna. 125 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 2: This is the New York Times poll that got people 126 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:29,839 Speaker 2: in a spin a couple of weeks ago about Joe Biden. 127 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 2: It was not great for him when you started looking 128 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:35,280 Speaker 2: at swing states. In this case, it's about the hypothetical 129 00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 2: New York. This is New York State. By the way, 130 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 2: Trump versus Biden. Biden is up by ten and maybe 131 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 2: we shouldn't be surprised in New York. But when you 132 00:06:46,839 --> 00:06:51,479 Speaker 2: add Trump versus Biden, Kennedy, and West, it's still a 133 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:55,919 Speaker 2: Biden advantage. There's another one out there today, Harvard Harris 134 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 2: poll Kyle that shows more than half, in fact, more 135 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:02,839 Speaker 2: than sixty cent of Trump primary voters say there's at 136 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 2: least some chance they would support a candidate other than 137 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 2: Donald Trump. And the Republican presidential primary. We're a year 138 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 2: out here, essentially, Kyle, and I wonder how much stock 139 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 2: you put in any of these. 140 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 4: You know, if you wanted to cherry pick some numbers, 141 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 4: you could find some weakness for Trump in his own primary, 142 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 4: you know, be it those people saying they're open to 143 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 4: voting for other candidates. Have been some other polls that 144 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 4: have suggested that. And yet when you actually ask about 145 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 4: the named candidates, you know, Trump is generally well over 146 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 4: fifty nationally and he's at least over forty in Iowa, 147 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:39,720 Speaker 4: New Hampshire, the leadoff states. And you know, there's the 148 00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 4: same kind of problem that Republicans had, and it's even 149 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 4: it's an even bigger problem in twenty twenty four than 150 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:46,920 Speaker 4: it wasn't twenty sixteen, where you know, you could you 151 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 4: could say, oh, well, more than half the people aren't 152 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 4: supporting Trump and these polls, but their votes are all 153 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 4: splintered among Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis and you know, 154 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 4: a couple a couple of other candidates. You know, I'm 155 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 4: curious to see if you know, we actually do see 156 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 4: a real race in Island New Hampshire, and you know, 157 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 4: whether that might mean anything for future contests, you know, 158 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:09,520 Speaker 4: whether Trump's support may be overstated at this point. But 159 00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:11,520 Speaker 4: I mean, the numbers are what they are, and I 160 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 4: mean Trump has been a really solid position even if 161 00:08:14,760 --> 00:08:17,840 Speaker 4: you can find you know, you sometimes see this in polling. 162 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 4: People will express support for some sort of generic outcome, 163 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:23,400 Speaker 4: but then when you give them the specifics on the 164 00:08:23,440 --> 00:08:27,920 Speaker 4: candidate choices, they'll behave differently. Sometimes you know, generic Democrat 165 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 4: or generic Republican and look really great, but of course 166 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 4: that's not a real option. 167 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 2: Spending time with Kyle conduct from Sabado's Crystal Ball the 168 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:40,719 Speaker 2: University of Virginia Center for Politics. You cranked out a 169 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 2: really interesting story a couple of days ago, a piece 170 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 2: of research from your shop about the flood of retirements 171 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:49,679 Speaker 2: that I'd like to get into with you. The latest 172 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 2: one was Congressman Kildye of Michigan. We're seeing a lot 173 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 2: of establishment members on both sides of the aisle call 174 00:08:57,440 --> 00:09:00,840 Speaker 2: it quits, Kyle. I'm assuming it. Well, everyone's got their 175 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 2: own reasoning here. But the more chaotic things get, the 176 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 2: more the retirements seem to stack up. And I'm wondering 177 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 2: where we are when it comes to D's versus ours 178 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 2: and what impact that's going to have on the balance 179 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 2: of power in the House and Senate in this election. 180 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, if you look at the actual competitive seats, I mean, 181 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 4: there are a lot of retirements lately, and you know, 182 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 4: most House seats are not competitive a general election sense, 183 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 4: so stands the reasons that most retirements would also not 184 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 4: really impact the general election, and that's been that's been, 185 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 4: you know, a prominent thing among these retirements, particularly, there's 186 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 4: been a number of Republicans from districts that just really 187 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:36,440 Speaker 4: aren't winnable for Democrats, and you know, in anything other 188 00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 4: than like a huge democratic wave sort of environment, maybe 189 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:41,720 Speaker 4: maybe even not then. But if you look at the 190 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 4: actual competitive seats, so the only one, the only open 191 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:48,839 Speaker 4: seat right now that Republicans are defending that's really really 192 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 4: competitive is George Santos the seat, and of course he retired. 193 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 4: And it's not like George Santos saying he's not going 194 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 4: to run in twenty twenty four hurts Republicans. It probably 195 00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 4: actually helps them in their quest to hold that that 196 00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 4: toss up that Joe Biden won by several points. But 197 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 4: then if you look on the Democratic side, there are 198 00:10:04,400 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 4: some open seats that are like in the toss up 199 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:09,679 Speaker 4: or kind of like leaning Democratic categories. You know, the 200 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 4: most competitive races Avvigil Spanberger in Virginia seven. She is 201 00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:16,320 Speaker 4: running for governor in twenty twenty five. He's not running again. 202 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:19,280 Speaker 4: You mentioned Kildee in Michigan, that's a toss up seat. 203 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 4: Melissa Slocket running for US Senate in Michigan. She leaves 204 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:25,720 Speaker 4: behind it, you know, a narrow Biden toss up seat. 205 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:28,720 Speaker 4: Katie porter Out in California has been running for Senate 206 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 4: for a while. That's another open seat that, while Democratic 207 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 4: leaning at the presidential level, it performs a little bit, 208 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:39,200 Speaker 4: you know, i'd say significantly more competitively down ballot. So 209 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 4: as Democrats try to piece together a House majority next year, 210 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 4: which they're perfectly capable of winning, they do have just 211 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 4: more sort of open seat defense to play. And you know, 212 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 4: retirements often will spike at this time of year. You know, 213 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:53,280 Speaker 4: people go home for the holidays, they reassess things, they 214 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:55,160 Speaker 4: wonder whether they're going to come back or not. Filing 215 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 4: deadlines are approaching in some places, and a lot of 216 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:00,599 Speaker 4: people just decide not to come back. I'm curious to 217 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 4: see if there are any other retirements that significantly impact 218 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 4: the you know, the competitive battlefield. You know, the Kildee 219 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 4: retirement Michigan is definitely one of those, because I think 220 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:11,959 Speaker 4: he would have probably still had a competitive race as 221 00:11:11,960 --> 00:11:13,560 Speaker 4: an incumbent, but I think he would have been favored. 222 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:16,200 Speaker 4: Whereas now like that that seat is like fifty to fifty. 223 00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 2: You did adjust your rating. While it may not be 224 00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 2: a surprise for West Virginia Senate after Joe Manson announced 225 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 2: his plans, Kyle, what will it mean for the balance 226 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 2: of power in the Senate. 227 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, I was just focusing on the House there. But 228 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 4: of course, the you know, the probably the most certainly 229 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 4: the most meaningful Senate retirement was Joe Mansion recently. And 230 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 4: that's a you know, that's a that goes from a 231 00:11:38,160 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 4: you know, just a slightly leaning Republican race with Mansion 232 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:44,199 Speaker 4: on the ballot to you know, basically no doubt save 233 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 4: Republican pick up. And you know, we've seen this in 234 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 4: some previous cycles, when you know, Republicans have won the Senate, 235 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 4: like at twenty fourteen, there were a few red state 236 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:57,120 Speaker 4: Democratic retirees and Republicans ended up winning those seats easily, 237 00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 4: including in West Virginia in twenty fourteen when Jay Rockefeller retired, 238 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 4: Shelley Moore Capito, a Republican, ended up winning that seat 239 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:07,160 Speaker 4: quite comfortably. And I suspect that probably Jim Justice, the 240 00:12:07,200 --> 00:12:10,760 Speaker 4: sitting governor, you know, is favored to get nominated in 241 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 4: favor to flip that seat next year. So that would 242 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 4: make if nothing else changes, that would make the Senate 243 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 4: fifty to fifty continent on the vice president, and the 244 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 4: Republicans have some other attractive targets, specifically in Trump won state. 245 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:25,679 Speaker 4: So John Tester and Montana and Shared Brown in Ohio. 246 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:27,800 Speaker 4: The a number of other kind of late blue state 247 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 4: Democratic Senate incumbents who are you know for tough races 248 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 4: next year? The Republicans don't have a lot of defense 249 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:36,439 Speaker 4: to play. Maybe Ted Cruz in Texas, maybe Rick Scott 250 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:40,480 Speaker 4: and Florida. But you know, Senate, I think, is you know, 251 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 4: looking pretty decent for Republicans? All I can remember saying 252 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 4: that in some past cycles and it didn't necessarily come 253 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 4: through for them. 254 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:52,320 Speaker 2: Man a seminar this Monday with Kyle Condick. Great to 255 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 2: have you, Kyle, always a great pleasure to spend some 256 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:57,520 Speaker 2: time and get your view from Sabado's Crystal Ball at 257 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 2: the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Great Thanksgiving, I'm 258 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:03,920 Speaker 2: sure it'll be a beautiful one in Charlottesville. As we 259 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 2: assemble our panel, Genie Shanzana and Rick Davis are with 260 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:09,960 Speaker 2: us Bloomberg Politics contributors. We just talked about a lot 261 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:11,760 Speaker 2: with Kyle. It's going to take us the better part 262 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:14,080 Speaker 2: of the hour to unpack all of it, and we 263 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 2: shall with our signature panel. Genie eighty first birthday. By 264 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 2: the way, James checks me, Donald Trump is seventy seven. 265 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:26,080 Speaker 2: I guess birthdays in June eighty one years old? Is 266 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:27,960 Speaker 2: he not better for getting this out of the way now? 267 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:31,200 Speaker 5: Yeah, and get it out of the way, do it 268 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 5: as quietly as possible. But boy, that NBC poll was 269 00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 5: not much of a birthday gift, Joe. I don't know 270 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 5: what you got for your birthday, but hopefully it was 271 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:43,160 Speaker 5: far better than NBC game than Joe Biden, because that 272 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:47,079 Speaker 5: really really was not what you want. And it's the numbers, 273 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 5: as you just talked about, pretty bad for Biden. 274 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:54,520 Speaker 2: So what's the bigger turkey than Rick Davis, the one 275 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 2: that was on the table being pardon today or the 276 00:13:57,240 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 2: commander in chief going into this reelection? 277 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 3: I think that if Joe Biden had his way, he'd 278 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,560 Speaker 3: like to be the one being pardoned and the turkey 279 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 3: running for reelection. Because I got to tell you these 280 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 3: numbers out of the NBC poll, I mean, like, I 281 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:11,320 Speaker 3: know where you're out. 282 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 2: I know these aren't LIKELI movies. I know all the 283 00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:14,960 Speaker 2: problems we have with these. 284 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 3: Surveys, but I must tell you forty one percent of 285 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 3: Democrats disapprove of the job their president is doing. I mean, 286 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:27,920 Speaker 3: like that that just screams out loud, like watch out 287 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:30,600 Speaker 3: there in your rear view mirror. They're coming for you. 288 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 2: A lot more ahead with Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano. 289 00:14:34,400 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 2: That's why we're here. I'm Jill Matthew. This is Bloomberg. 290 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:42,160 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 291 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 292 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 293 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:52,440 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 294 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 295 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:03,600 Speaker 2: The turkeys this year we're named Liberty and Bell. After 296 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:06,640 Speaker 2: spending the night and the posh Willard Hotel as they 297 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 2: do each year in this annual tradition. Yeah, these are turkeys. 298 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 2: They are then pardoned by the Commander in chief so 299 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 2: they can go live on their lives in a peaceful retirement. 300 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:22,480 Speaker 2: The president today not in the rose garden. Interestingly, they 301 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 2: actually went out on the south lawn for this one. 302 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:28,280 Speaker 2: Massive turkeys. 303 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 3: That's a big bird man. It's I hereby pardon Liberty 304 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 3: and Bell. 305 00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:44,440 Speaker 2: Yes, and now we can all live to I guess 306 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 2: eat turkey later this week, Happy eighty first birthday to 307 00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 2: the president. If you're just joining us, though, he's facing 308 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 2: some pretty rough polling data. Not that that's new, but 309 00:15:55,000 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 2: well it is in this case in terms of a 310 00:15:57,160 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 2: new low when it comes to his approval rating. Rick 311 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 2: Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are with us year on this 312 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 2: Monday to kick off Thanksgiving Week Bloomberg Politics contributors and Genie. 313 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 2: I'll be curious your take on this as a political scientist. 314 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:15,040 Speaker 2: What actually has your attention in this poll and what 315 00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:19,600 Speaker 2: does not, Because obviously young people are not happy with 316 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 2: the president right now, when it comes to Israel, when 317 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 2: it comes to student loans, when it comes to a 318 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 2: lot of different issues. When you start going into other demographics, 319 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 2: there are great concerns about his age that persist, as 320 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 2: well as his handling of the economy. What's your takeaway 321 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 2: from this poll from NBC News. 322 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:41,440 Speaker 5: You know, I think one thing that really jumped out 323 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 5: on the foreign policy front was just what you mentioned. 324 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:48,359 Speaker 5: Eighteen to thirty four year olds, he's fifty points underwater, 325 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 5: seventy percent disapproval on his handling of what's going on 326 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 5: in terms of fore foreign policy. Rather Israel, Gaza, of course, 327 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 5: I think you know, as you look back at the 328 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:04,439 Speaker 5: previous NBC polls, what also jumps out is this is 329 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 5: the first time he is losing to Donald Trump. Of course, 330 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:12,199 Speaker 5: it's still within the margin of error, but that is 331 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 5: a bad sign. I think one of the things we 332 00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:18,800 Speaker 5: keep hearing from Democrats is that, well, don't worry. In 333 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:22,679 Speaker 5: twenty eleven, Barack Obama, he wasn't doing well, but he 334 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 5: was able to pick it up. But never once was 335 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:28,880 Speaker 5: he losing to a Republican. And that's where Joe Biden 336 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 5: unfortunately finds himself yesterday, the day before his birthday. So 337 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 5: those numbers are really really troubling. 338 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 6: I also have some. 339 00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:40,399 Speaker 5: Good news, if we can talk good news, or like 340 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:44,440 Speaker 5: maybe the sky isn't falling since it's Thanksgiving, I'll say later. 341 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:46,200 Speaker 5: But so I don't want to leave it all negative. 342 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 6: But it's a concerning pole. 343 00:17:49,960 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 2: Yes it is, uh Rick, you just weighed in on 344 00:17:53,080 --> 00:17:56,640 Speaker 2: that a couple of moments ago, And I wonder what 345 00:17:56,680 --> 00:17:59,680 Speaker 2: would be your biggest concern? Is it losing young people 346 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:03,679 Speaker 2: as a Democrat because they tend to more closely align 347 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 2: with your politics, and this is a president who's tried 348 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 2: to embrace their politics sometimes, in the case of student loans, 349 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 2: not only not always to their satisfaction. Or are you 350 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,440 Speaker 2: more concerned about older people knowing that young people are 351 00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,320 Speaker 2: not terribly reliable on election day? 352 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:22,359 Speaker 3: Yeah, look, I'm kind of the ladder, you know. 353 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:24,359 Speaker 2: I leave young people to Genie. 354 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 3: She has to teach them. Obviously she's not doing her 355 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 3: job right, as the Democrats would would believe, because they 356 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 3: are definitely not liking this guy, Joe Biden. 357 00:18:33,280 --> 00:18:34,119 Speaker 2: But they don't vote. 358 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 3: They don't show a propensay to vote every chance they 359 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:41,680 Speaker 3: have to show up and really turn an election other 360 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 3: than on abortion and referendums that off your elections, you know, 361 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,120 Speaker 3: they just they they stick to their issues, right, abortion, 362 00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 3: gay marriage, cannabis, the stuff that really gets them out 363 00:18:54,480 --> 00:18:57,639 Speaker 3: presidential politics doesn't. I mean, I think they have the 364 00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:01,640 Speaker 3: right attitude. I mean, presidential politics is meaningless to most 365 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 3: of them, and that shows up in a lot of 366 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:06,639 Speaker 3: the polling. So it's not surprising to me that that 367 00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:10,679 Speaker 3: that Uncle Joe's getting a bad shake with young voters. 368 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 3: But that's not what's got him worried. What's got him 369 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:17,200 Speaker 3: worried is their own base. Uh, the the idea that 370 00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:20,040 Speaker 3: Democrats are sort of bailing on this guy. When you 371 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 3: look at the matchups with with Trump, Trump isn't moving 372 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:25,800 Speaker 3: up at all. Right, he is exactly where he's been 373 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:29,880 Speaker 3: all year long. It's where Biden is headed. And that's 374 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:35,360 Speaker 3: a digression of independent voters and his base Democrats. Now 375 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,880 Speaker 3: you have to assume the Democrats are going to come back, right, 376 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:40,159 Speaker 3: I mean, you get through all this primary stuff, and 377 00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:41,679 Speaker 3: when you've got a head to head if it is 378 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 3: Donald Trump and and and Joe Biden. And by the way, 379 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 3: Biden's got a lot easier path to his nomination and 380 00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:49,800 Speaker 3: Trump does. Even though we all assume Trump's going to 381 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 3: be the nominated at this stage, you know, then those 382 00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 3: Democrats likely will come home. If they don't, that is 383 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 3: the number one issue for Biden. He can't even start 384 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:01,160 Speaker 3: thinking about independent voters unless he's got his base intact. 385 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:03,760 Speaker 2: Well, this might help with the bass. 386 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 1: Jeanie. 387 00:20:04,800 --> 00:20:08,800 Speaker 2: The President was reportedly close to over the weekend a 388 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 2: deal to see more hostages released, potentially a good number 389 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:16,480 Speaker 2: of hostages from Gaza. Today, he was asked about that 390 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 2: at the Turkey event. He was working the rope line 391 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 2: and a reporter you'll hear yelling at him the President's 392 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:24,879 Speaker 2: response here he is. 393 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 6: There is a hostage deal. 394 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 1: There was a president is a hostage deal there. 395 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:32,240 Speaker 4: I believe so I'm not. 396 00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:38,919 Speaker 2: Yes, I believe so, he said. Then when asked you 397 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:43,440 Speaker 2: believe so, he said yes and held up his crossed fingers, 398 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,880 Speaker 2: hoping that there would be some news here. Jennie, how 399 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 2: important will that be for progressives to see that development 400 00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:53,400 Speaker 2: assuming it happens. Yeah, then the. 401 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:55,840 Speaker 5: Band leader really struck up that music when he was 402 00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 5: trying to answer. I love that. You know, it's critically 403 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 5: because those are the kinds of things that can change 404 00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:07,080 Speaker 5: really really quickly, results like the one we've seen in 405 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 5: this poll. And so if we do see a hostage 406 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 5: return safely, if we do see a pause, say a 407 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:18,159 Speaker 5: five day pause that goes along with that, that will 408 00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,919 Speaker 5: help the president. And you know, that is what we 409 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,080 Speaker 5: have to keep in mind. Not only is it early, 410 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:26,760 Speaker 5: not only is this a national poll, but events find 411 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:30,239 Speaker 5: a way of transforming what we're seeing here. And you know, 412 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:33,679 Speaker 5: I also think we heard from Senator Blumenthal over the 413 00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:37,600 Speaker 5: weekend and he said something really really critically important, and 414 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:40,879 Speaker 5: that is as much as people are discontented in the 415 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 5: United States, and not just Democrats, Republicans, independents. The most 416 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:48,400 Speaker 5: important thing is to see how they're behaving at the polls, 417 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 5: and what have we seen. Democrats have been coming out 418 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 5: and they have been winning, whether it's Kentucky, whether it's Ohio. 419 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:59,120 Speaker 5: We just saw this happen the other day. That matters 420 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:02,440 Speaker 5: their behavior at the polls and the organization that got 421 00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 5: them out there so Democrats could perform. Democrats have been 422 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 5: over performing in elections. So there are some good signs 423 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:14,359 Speaker 5: for Democrats out there. This poll is not necessar necessarily 424 00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:16,879 Speaker 5: one of them, but there are other things that can 425 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 5: change the trajectory. Events and what's been happening at the polls. 426 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:24,119 Speaker 5: And in defense of young people, they do have a 427 00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:27,000 Speaker 5: lot to offer and they do get out to vote, 428 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 5: and I think they will get out to vote. They 429 00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 5: of course, are discontented by a lot of things going on, 430 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:36,159 Speaker 5: and I think rightly so, so we I think should 431 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,359 Speaker 5: listen to them very very carefully. 432 00:22:39,400 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 2: Well, you wonder if more of them should be running 433 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,120 Speaker 2: rick with the number of retirements that we're seeing here. 434 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 2: I talked to Kyle Condick about that a little while ago. 435 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:50,639 Speaker 2: I believe we're in excess of thirty lawmakers now at 436 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 2: this point. Representative Kildy added his name to the list 437 00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:57,119 Speaker 2: last week that many will remember for Joe Manchin announcing 438 00:22:57,560 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 2: what's your take on the impact that this will have 439 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,240 Speaker 2: on the campaign trail to balance the power here in Washington, 440 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,120 Speaker 2: or is Kyle Wright? A lot of these seats will 441 00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:09,680 Speaker 2: stay right with the party now occupying them. 442 00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:10,000 Speaker 1: Yeah. 443 00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:10,280 Speaker 7: Sure. 444 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:12,760 Speaker 3: I don't think anybody's predicting this to be a swing 445 00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 3: election in the sense that you know, there's any one 446 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,640 Speaker 3: party that has a significant advantage going into the cycle. 447 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:21,600 Speaker 3: You know, we're just now entering one year into election day, 448 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:26,399 Speaker 3: So I don't get the impression that posters are telling 449 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:28,920 Speaker 3: us that there's going to be a significant move. 450 00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,359 Speaker 2: So you would assume. 451 00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,639 Speaker 3: That in most of these cases, they're going to be 452 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 3: pretty much the same kinds of candidates that win the 453 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 3: nomination that will then try to contest for these open seats. 454 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:42,120 Speaker 3: I would say to watch out for because the one 455 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:46,400 Speaker 3: thing that has changed cyclical elections is Donald Trump, and 456 00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:49,439 Speaker 3: that's for the worse, not for the better. There have 457 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:55,120 Speaker 3: been many cycnical races, like just the midterms a year ago, 458 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:58,239 Speaker 3: that Donald Trump was able to get some of his 459 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:02,880 Speaker 3: own weaker Republican candidates nominated because he controls a lot 460 00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:07,800 Speaker 3: of primary voters and that hurt our ability to contest election. 461 00:24:08,080 --> 00:24:11,000 Speaker 3: So we haven't talked much about, you know, the Trump 462 00:24:11,119 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 3: campaign and their operation trying to load up his kind 463 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,400 Speaker 3: of candidates for these seats. But we could anticipate that 464 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,640 Speaker 3: that's going to happen. It's happening right now, and if 465 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:26,480 Speaker 3: we put weaker candidates into these open seats, we can't 466 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:29,680 Speaker 3: assume that we're going to hold them, and Democrats will 467 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:35,640 Speaker 3: take advantage of that, just like they did in the midterm. 468 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:39,359 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 469 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,600 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 470 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:45,720 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listening on 471 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:47,920 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 472 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:51,920 Speaker 2: We have found Kayley Lines. It's been a couple of days. 473 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,480 Speaker 2: She's very busy, but we found her back here on 474 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:58,440 Speaker 2: the fastest show in politics. Happy Thanksgiving Week. It's lovely 475 00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,520 Speaker 2: to see you. There's new polling data, not only on 476 00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,400 Speaker 2: the campaigns today, and we had we had some good 477 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,119 Speaker 2: stuff that we were just going through with the panel, 478 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:11,159 Speaker 2: but fascinating from Quinnipiac. You're gonna be with family. I 479 00:25:11,160 --> 00:25:13,520 Speaker 2: hope this Thanksgiving indeed, because they don't want you to 480 00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 2: talk about politics. Did you see it? 481 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:15,920 Speaker 6: Yeah? I did. 482 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:18,240 Speaker 2: I don't know if that would normally be your bag, 483 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:20,640 Speaker 2: or if you're talking football like normal people. 484 00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:21,840 Speaker 6: A little bit of both. 485 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:25,400 Speaker 2: Six out of ten say they're hoping to avoid discussing 486 00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,760 Speaker 2: politics because basically everyone remembers what happened last. 487 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:29,320 Speaker 6: Year, right. 488 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 8: I would count myself as one of those six out 489 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:36,200 Speaker 8: So you would rather not well, mostly because I talk 490 00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 8: politics all day. 491 00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:41,400 Speaker 6: It's literally my job, yes, you know, in office. I'd 492 00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:43,159 Speaker 6: rather just talk about anything. 493 00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,200 Speaker 2: That's also why everybody wants to talk to you about it, 494 00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:47,359 Speaker 2: well exactly, and you get that whole. I know you 495 00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:48,919 Speaker 2: don't want to you do this all day, but I 496 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:52,159 Speaker 2: just need to know what's your take on blah blah blah. 497 00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:56,040 Speaker 8: That was Thanksgiving for me last year with crypto okay, ftx, 498 00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 8: so that was well. 499 00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 2: I'm with the twenty nine percent say they're looking forward 500 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,440 Speaker 2: to discussing politics because you know, in our house and 501 00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:06,440 Speaker 2: our family, it doesn't matter which side this thing is 502 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:08,240 Speaker 2: going to break down into a fight anyway, so you 503 00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 2: may as well get it. You know, let's let's do 504 00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,600 Speaker 2: it over something that counts before everybody starts grabbing the 505 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,760 Speaker 2: coats and storming out. And now Kaylee knows a little 506 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:17,359 Speaker 2: more about what it's like to be in my house. 507 00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:21,680 Speaker 2: I can't wait the stuffing at the circuit such fun. 508 00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:23,879 Speaker 8: You have three days to brace yourself and get all 509 00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:24,800 Speaker 8: your arguments exactly. 510 00:26:24,880 --> 00:26:27,359 Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely, I don't. I bet you Jack doesn't have 511 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 2: this problem. Does appropriations come up at the at the Thanksgiving? 512 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:34,880 Speaker 9: I want to know if there's going to be a shutdown. 513 00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:38,199 Speaker 9: I surely see the family in Virginia. If you're in 514 00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:41,600 Speaker 9: the DC area, you want to know if restaurants could 515 00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:43,919 Speaker 9: be closing down, if they're near a federal building. We 516 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,359 Speaker 9: all care if it's going to be a shutdown. Fortunately, 517 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 9: we don't have the same questions. Usually when I see 518 00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:51,680 Speaker 9: family around the holidays, it's like a Christmas shutdown deadline, 519 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:53,520 Speaker 9: And at least we don't have that. But I do 520 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:54,480 Speaker 9: get those questions. 521 00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 2: So you're you're home free this this year. They don't 522 00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 2: relatively bring it up until January, if they even I 523 00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,200 Speaker 2: don't know, is everyone assuming the way we are that 524 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,200 Speaker 2: the government's going to shut down in January. Maybe that's 525 00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:06,520 Speaker 2: not what happens, But they might want you to explain 526 00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:09,119 Speaker 2: what a laddered cr is that might come up before 527 00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 2: the game. And also, you know kind of where we 528 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,440 Speaker 2: started here, because there was a lot of talk about 529 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:16,520 Speaker 2: a honeymoon for Mike Johnson at the beginning, and people 530 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,159 Speaker 2: are thinking things might feel a little different after we 531 00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:20,960 Speaker 2: eat our turkey and come back to Washington. 532 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:22,920 Speaker 9: What do you think, Yeah, it's there are a lot 533 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:26,520 Speaker 9: of challenges. I don't know if this devolves into a 534 00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:30,240 Speaker 9: shutdown or just the lack of a deal that requires 535 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,680 Speaker 9: a full year continuing resolution. It's a little too early 536 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:36,640 Speaker 9: to say what happens if things break down and how 537 00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:40,800 Speaker 9: they break down, but it I think the honeymoon is 538 00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:44,040 Speaker 9: pretty much over for Johnson. Not that people are itching 539 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:47,440 Speaker 9: for a shutdown, not that they're trying to kick him out. 540 00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:50,320 Speaker 9: It's not the same as it was with McCarthy. But 541 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:54,760 Speaker 9: there's some frustration from the conservative hardliners who basically gave 542 00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,600 Speaker 9: him a runway here and said, you know, well, now 543 00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,159 Speaker 9: we want something really good. We want spending cuts in 544 00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 9: an actual funding deal, and that is not easy for 545 00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:05,440 Speaker 9: him to negotiate. So there's a shorter leash at least 546 00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:05,840 Speaker 9: right now. 547 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,800 Speaker 8: Well, in one of those conservative members. Congressman Bob Good 548 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,480 Speaker 8: of Virginia is the one who vocally, repeatedly has said 549 00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,200 Speaker 8: that a government shutdown wouldn't actually be so bad. It's 550 00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:16,880 Speaker 8: not something that needs to be feared. And he, when 551 00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:21,040 Speaker 8: the Continuing Resolution passed, said that Johnson promised he's not 552 00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:23,640 Speaker 8: going to do another CR and that basically he intends 553 00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,760 Speaker 8: to hold him to that, which leaves what two options, though, Jack, 554 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:28,440 Speaker 8: if you can't kick the can down the road again, 555 00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,440 Speaker 8: it's either sort out of the appropriations bills or shut 556 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:33,520 Speaker 8: down the parts of government whose funding is expired. There's 557 00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:34,840 Speaker 8: no third option, really, is there? 558 00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:35,200 Speaker 3: Yeah? 559 00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:38,920 Speaker 9: That is him taking away the third option. The third 560 00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:42,360 Speaker 9: option would be another Continuing Resolution and buying more time. 561 00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,680 Speaker 9: And if he is making that promise and sticking to it, 562 00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,560 Speaker 9: which I think we could still say is an outstanding question, 563 00:28:49,640 --> 00:28:52,040 Speaker 9: then there's only two options. And they made it more 564 00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:56,440 Speaker 9: difficult on themselves by not only setting two deadlines, but 565 00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:58,720 Speaker 9: they had to decide ahead of time which bills they 566 00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:01,760 Speaker 9: need to enact by January nineteenth, in which ones they 567 00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:04,560 Speaker 9: need to enact by February second. There's no magic in 568 00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:06,760 Speaker 9: that decision saying oh, well, you picked four bills that 569 00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,800 Speaker 9: you want to strike a deal on in January. Therefore 570 00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:13,000 Speaker 9: you have a deal. It's very difficult. Now they're locked 571 00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:16,920 Speaker 9: into saying we have less flexibility. We need a deal 572 00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:19,400 Speaker 9: on the four bills that we've predetermined, and then we 573 00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:21,320 Speaker 9: get to work on the other eight. So they've given 574 00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,840 Speaker 9: them some less flexibility than usual under a cr unbelievable. 575 00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:27,480 Speaker 9: I hope you get a long weekend or something since 576 00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:28,239 Speaker 9: everyone's out of town. 577 00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:29,640 Speaker 2: Is that part of the job, Yes, part. 578 00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:29,880 Speaker 1: Of the deal. 579 00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:33,160 Speaker 9: Fortunately, first time since twenty twelve that there hasn't been 580 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,880 Speaker 9: a December funding deadline. Incredible, So I am enjoying it. 581 00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,160 Speaker 2: Well, jeez, all right, we'll have happy Turkey, and thank 582 00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:41,400 Speaker 2: you Jack for being a Palin helping us understand all 583 00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:44,600 Speaker 2: this fine Jack's work, of course, Bloomberg Government, Bloomberg dot Com. 584 00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,880 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew along with Kaylee Lines. I wonder what 585 00:29:47,960 --> 00:29:49,920 Speaker 2: Mick thinks about this. I think Mick is with me 586 00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:53,160 Speaker 2: in the twenty nine percent. I mean, there's no way, 587 00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 2: Mick Malveney, you can't hide from politics on Thanksgiving. That's 588 00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:58,720 Speaker 2: all anyone in your family wants to talk about. 589 00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:01,600 Speaker 7: Right, Absolutely not, Joe, what are you talking about? 590 00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:06,760 Speaker 10: We've got you've got listen between politics, football, turkey and napping. 591 00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:09,280 Speaker 7: I mean politics is coming in and just fourth in 592 00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 7: my house. 593 00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:13,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, but I mean, if i'm your family member, you're 594 00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,440 Speaker 2: the one guy I know who's got an answer to 595 00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:17,920 Speaker 2: these things. They don't want to talk about Trump and 596 00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:21,120 Speaker 2: what happened in the Congress and apparently not. 597 00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:25,160 Speaker 10: Hi twenty three year old triplets. Do you think they 598 00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:26,880 Speaker 10: want to talk about politics and what daddy does for 599 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:27,440 Speaker 10: a living. 600 00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,479 Speaker 2: I'm thinking about the relatives though obviously we don't need 601 00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:32,400 Speaker 2: to dwell on this. I mean, it's the extended family 602 00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,320 Speaker 2: that ends up banging out of Thanksgiving. What do you 603 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,960 Speaker 2: think about the honeymoon here? What's what does Mike Johnson 604 00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:41,400 Speaker 2: do during the holiday break? Is he on the phone 605 00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:42,680 Speaker 2: with members every day? 606 00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:44,360 Speaker 7: I hope so? 607 00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:46,800 Speaker 10: And by the way, what he's not doing over the 608 00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,240 Speaker 10: holiday is raising money. We could talk about that another time. 609 00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 10: Is to you know that there's a bunch of different 610 00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:54,120 Speaker 10: job descriptions to be the speaker, and one of them 611 00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,120 Speaker 10: is to be the leading fundraiser for your party. 612 00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:58,440 Speaker 7: And Mike, who seems you know, he's very deep in 613 00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:01,040 Speaker 7: the policy. This ladder cr is very creative. 614 00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:02,960 Speaker 10: I get all of that but is he out there 615 00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:05,440 Speaker 10: raising you know, the millions of dollars the party needs 616 00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,800 Speaker 10: over the holidays to help keep the majority that would 617 00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:10,680 Speaker 10: remain to be seen. So, no, he looks like he's 618 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:12,040 Speaker 10: on the phone or I expected to be on the 619 00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,280 Speaker 10: phone talking about different possibilities with different sort of the 620 00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:16,880 Speaker 10: five families within the Republicans. 621 00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:18,920 Speaker 7: If he's not, he's not doing his job. 622 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,240 Speaker 8: Well, okay, So if he's doing his job or not 623 00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:25,520 Speaker 8: in the interimke it still is a question of how 624 00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:27,000 Speaker 8: long he gets to keep the job. 625 00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:27,240 Speaker 10: Right. 626 00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:30,400 Speaker 8: We had a whole conversation when the Continuing Resolution was 627 00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:33,080 Speaker 8: getting off the ground that oh wow, he gets to 628 00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:36,000 Speaker 8: pass a clean CR with Democratic support when Kevin McCarthy 629 00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:39,280 Speaker 8: did not. I just wonder how far that grace realistically 630 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:40,320 Speaker 8: is going to extend. 631 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:44,480 Speaker 10: MEC I can't imagine very much further. I thought it 632 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,320 Speaker 10: would be better than this, Kaylee. I really did, because 633 00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:47,760 Speaker 10: I talked to folks on the Hill and they're like, yeah, 634 00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,240 Speaker 10: there'd be a honeymoon period when he give him a while. 635 00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:52,960 Speaker 10: And I was surprised at how short that went, at 636 00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:56,160 Speaker 10: least for some folks. I still think the appetite for 637 00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,160 Speaker 10: another speaker battle is very very low right now. But 638 00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:01,480 Speaker 10: I also know that, which is that the tensions are 639 00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:05,000 Speaker 10: extraordinarily high. I've been to Washington a little bit recently. 640 00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:07,560 Speaker 10: You go over to the Capitol Hill Club, the Republican Club, 641 00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:11,640 Speaker 10: and the tension is palpable in the building. This is 642 00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 10: usually a place that folks would go to sort of 643 00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 10: unwind and you know, you might fight during the day, 644 00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:18,000 Speaker 10: but you go and have dinner together at the end 645 00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:18,400 Speaker 10: of the night. 646 00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:20,280 Speaker 7: And that's just not happening. 647 00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:25,120 Speaker 10: So that the fractures within the Republican Party right now 648 00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,440 Speaker 10: in the House are absolutely real. And my guess is 649 00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:32,360 Speaker 10: for Mike Johnson that speaks to a much shorter honeymoon period, 650 00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:34,880 Speaker 10: because you're exactly right. I mean, somebody has to ask 651 00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:37,400 Speaker 10: the question, how would it have been different if Kevin 652 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:38,560 Speaker 10: McCarthy was still in charge? 653 00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:40,480 Speaker 7: And right now the answer is not very. 654 00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,800 Speaker 2: Wow. I can only imagine the stuff you hear at 655 00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:48,000 Speaker 2: the Capitol Hill Club. What are the factions at this point? Mick. 656 00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:49,760 Speaker 2: You know, we like to talk about the fact that 657 00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:51,960 Speaker 2: you're co founder of the Freedom Caucus and that you 658 00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:55,520 Speaker 2: have a sense of I guess the pulse in that group, 659 00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:58,640 Speaker 2: but that's not even a single group anymore. Has this 660 00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:03,000 Speaker 2: come down to individual lawmakers in their positions against the speaker. 661 00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:06,040 Speaker 10: Yeah, there's a lot of that, and by the way, 662 00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:08,440 Speaker 10: both parties struggle with that. You know that there's a 663 00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,440 Speaker 10: longer discussion to be had about misaligned incentives and what 664 00:33:11,600 --> 00:33:13,720 Speaker 10: sort of people run for office now and do people 665 00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:17,400 Speaker 10: actually go to Washington to be lawmakers and legislators? Do 666 00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:19,880 Speaker 10: they go to Washington to become famous? And social media 667 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:25,280 Speaker 10: sort of you know, fantastics. There's a lot of individuality 668 00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:25,880 Speaker 10: out there right now. 669 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:26,600 Speaker 7: You've got a lot of. 670 00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:29,920 Speaker 10: Individuals playing what is traditionally a team sport, especially in 671 00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:33,360 Speaker 10: the House, and it is having a negative effect. I've 672 00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,840 Speaker 10: kind at least four groups. You've got the Freedom Caucus folks. 673 00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:37,560 Speaker 10: Then you've got the folks who are further out of 674 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:39,760 Speaker 10: the right than the Freedom Caucus or the anarchist wing. 675 00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:42,560 Speaker 10: That's the Matt Gates wing of the party. You've got 676 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,320 Speaker 10: the more traditional conservatives and the Republican Study Committee. You've 677 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:47,920 Speaker 10: got this main Street folks who are sort of the centrist. 678 00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,719 Speaker 10: And then you've got the Appropriators, which is an entirely 679 00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:53,520 Speaker 10: different group. So Mike's got a lot of Mike Johnson's 680 00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:57,080 Speaker 10: got a lot of different interests to balance, and he 681 00:33:57,440 --> 00:33:59,240 Speaker 10: doesn't have a lot of experience with that, and he 682 00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:01,360 Speaker 10: doesn't have a lot of good will built up. Now 683 00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,320 Speaker 10: that being said, he doesn't have a lot of negative 684 00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:06,000 Speaker 10: will either. You know, there's folks who say that Kevin 685 00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:07,840 Speaker 10: lied to them, and they're not saying that about Mike. 686 00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:11,000 Speaker 10: But Kevin also had two decades worth of good will 687 00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:13,279 Speaker 10: built up that Mike's not had a chance to do yet. 688 00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,040 Speaker 8: Well, that was the whole conversation around how he got 689 00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:18,919 Speaker 8: the gavel in the first place. Maybe it was less 690 00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:21,399 Speaker 8: about how many friends he had, but how few enemies. Mick, 691 00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:24,320 Speaker 8: As we talk about the challenges that Johnson is facing 692 00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,799 Speaker 8: and keeping his conference together, it's not just a spending fight. 693 00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,400 Speaker 8: He has to navigate or questions around funding for Israel 694 00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:33,080 Speaker 8: and Ukraine. He is going to in very short order 695 00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:34,880 Speaker 8: when they return from the holiday, have to deal with 696 00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:39,360 Speaker 8: an expulsion resolution from for Congressman George Santos, the Republican 697 00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:41,560 Speaker 8: from New York. Of course, there was that scathing Ethics 698 00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:44,560 Speaker 8: Committee report released last week resulted in the chair of 699 00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:48,239 Speaker 8: the Ethics Committee putting forward this expulsion resolution. You think 700 00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:49,440 Speaker 8: Santos is done. 701 00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:52,560 Speaker 10: Mick, I do Actually, I think that's probably the easiest 702 00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:54,279 Speaker 10: thing for him to deal with. That sort of puts 703 00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:56,960 Speaker 10: the rest of it in perspective, an expulsion of one 704 00:34:57,000 --> 00:34:59,560 Speaker 10: of your own members at a time when you have 705 00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:02,759 Speaker 10: an extra ordinarily narrow margin. But my guess is that 706 00:35:02,800 --> 00:35:06,440 Speaker 10: George is probably gone. There's just no there's especially now 707 00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:08,759 Speaker 10: in light of the of the Ethics Committee findings and 708 00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,040 Speaker 10: so forth, he'll be gone and that may, you know, 709 00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:12,759 Speaker 10: at least for a short period of time, takes the 710 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,239 Speaker 10: margin down by another seat. Now, I thought you were 711 00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,000 Speaker 10: going to go kaily to the impeachment issues and the 712 00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,080 Speaker 10: other investigations and so forth as to whether or not 713 00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:21,239 Speaker 10: that you know, that's that's not a spending issue. It's 714 00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:24,000 Speaker 10: not a government shutdown issue. But it's something they're going 715 00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:25,680 Speaker 10: to have to deal with because there are going to 716 00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:30,480 Speaker 10: be swing members centrist members of Mike Johnson's party who 717 00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:32,200 Speaker 10: don't want to deal with that because I think it's 718 00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:34,640 Speaker 10: a negative in their in their races. So that's going 719 00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:36,719 Speaker 10: to be that's going to be another battle he's got 720 00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,239 Speaker 10: to face beyond just spending. But I think Santos is 721 00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:41,520 Speaker 10: the low hanging fruit. By the way I think it 722 00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:44,920 Speaker 10: speaks volumes to either party when they're willing to hold 723 00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:47,160 Speaker 10: their own accountable. I have a great deal of respect 724 00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:48,799 Speaker 10: for some of the Democrats in the Senate what they've 725 00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:52,280 Speaker 10: said about Menendez, and I have a great deal respect 726 00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:53,440 Speaker 10: for a lot of the Republicans who have come out 727 00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,320 Speaker 10: against George Santos in light now this of this ethics finding. 728 00:35:56,400 --> 00:36:00,759 Speaker 10: So my guess is, in a strange, bizarre kind of way, 729 00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:02,720 Speaker 10: that's going to be the easiest thing that Mike Johnson 730 00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:04,240 Speaker 10: has to do with over Christmas and Thanksgiving. 731 00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:08,520 Speaker 2: Sounds like you would have voted to expel if you 732 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:09,359 Speaker 2: were still there, Mick. 733 00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:10,040 Speaker 1: Is that right? 734 00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:11,919 Speaker 7: Well, I think they've done it the right way. 735 00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,000 Speaker 10: They didn't vote to expel before the due process had run, 736 00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:17,040 Speaker 10: but now that the Ethics Committee finding is out there, 737 00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:18,680 Speaker 10: they've got some you know, I think that's the right 738 00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:21,360 Speaker 10: way to look at it. Is it beyond the pale 739 00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:23,520 Speaker 10: that there might be one member out of five hundred 740 00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:25,879 Speaker 10: and thirty five in the House and the Senate who 741 00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:29,480 Speaker 10: is just so twisted that he shouldn't be there. 742 00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:31,040 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think that's a possibility. 743 00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:33,799 Speaker 10: And when your own delegation in your own home state, 744 00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,319 Speaker 10: from your own party are telling people you need to go. 745 00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:38,239 Speaker 10: That's when you sort of wake up and say, you 746 00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:41,279 Speaker 10: know what, maybe it's better if we move on. 747 00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:44,760 Speaker 2: Sounds like you were about to say yes, yeah. 748 00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:46,880 Speaker 6: Is that a two hundred word answer of yes. 749 00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:48,439 Speaker 7: Mick, Yeah, yeah. 750 00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:50,480 Speaker 10: Listen, I've done two thousand if you really want to 751 00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:52,640 Speaker 10: be a filibuster. But yeah, I think he's probably. 752 00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:56,680 Speaker 8: Said, wow, all right, well you brought up the impeachment. 753 00:36:57,880 --> 00:36:59,080 Speaker 6: Do you think that's going to go. 754 00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:03,920 Speaker 10: Disappointed that George Santos might be leaving and what we 755 00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:05,520 Speaker 10: lose the ability to help? 756 00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:09,400 Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, well now you're in These are competing interests. 757 00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:11,640 Speaker 2: I mean, my goodness, you know how many shows he's 758 00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:14,520 Speaker 2: helped to populate here. Uh, but you know, we'll do 759 00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:16,560 Speaker 2: it's best for the institution, Mick. I think that's what 760 00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:17,680 Speaker 2: Kaylee would have said. 761 00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:19,120 Speaker 6: That's what Mike Johnson said. 762 00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:21,759 Speaker 8: He wants members to consider what is best for the 763 00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:24,880 Speaker 8: institution just quickly, Mick, is what best is best for 764 00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:28,880 Speaker 8: the institution impeaching a president of the opposite party, Again. 765 00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:31,080 Speaker 7: It just depends what the evidence is. 766 00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:34,400 Speaker 10: Keep in mind, there's a difference between an impeachment inquiry, 767 00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:37,000 Speaker 10: which is what is going on now, and an impeachment 768 00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:40,960 Speaker 10: and if they find the Republicans find evidence during the 769 00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:42,440 Speaker 10: impeachment inquiry. 770 00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:44,280 Speaker 7: That that justifies an impeachment. I think that's okay. 771 00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:46,560 Speaker 10: If you were just doing an impeachment inquiry, sort of 772 00:37:46,640 --> 00:37:48,920 Speaker 10: check the box of something you will going to do. Anyway, 773 00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:52,920 Speaker 10: I think that's a different story. My biased opinion is 774 00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:54,520 Speaker 10: I thought that's what the Democrats were doing with with 775 00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:55,160 Speaker 10: Donald Trump. 776 00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:57,359 Speaker 7: They were going to impeach him. They ran, many of. 777 00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:59,600 Speaker 10: Them did on impeaching him, so they're sort of laying 778 00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:02,040 Speaker 10: the foundation for doing what they were going to do. Anyway, 779 00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:04,319 Speaker 10: if you're going to impeach the president, there needs to 780 00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:05,920 Speaker 10: be a really good reason for that needs to be 781 00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,759 Speaker 10: a high crime and misdemeanor. If they found that and 782 00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:11,600 Speaker 10: there's been some pretty damning evidence, or at least evidence 783 00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:15,520 Speaker 10: that might be damning against President Biden, then yeah, then 784 00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:17,920 Speaker 10: that's fine. But you can't it can't be seen as 785 00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:20,440 Speaker 10: a pretext to do something you wanted to do against 786 00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:21,880 Speaker 10: your political ally enemies. 787 00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:26,400 Speaker 2: We always want your biased opinion. That's the whole point here. McKay. 788 00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:28,160 Speaker 2: We're out of time. You're going to be in Iowa, 789 00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:29,160 Speaker 2: in New Hampshire, right. 790 00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:33,960 Speaker 10: I'm actually going to Alabama for the next Republican debate. 791 00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:34,399 Speaker 7: News Nation. 792 00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:35,920 Speaker 10: The nice folks over there have got that. So I 793 00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:39,000 Speaker 10: get a chance to go down to Alabama. All over the. 794 00:38:39,960 --> 00:38:41,920 Speaker 2: So so we'll get back to us then because we 795 00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:43,520 Speaker 2: want to see you in Iowa and New Hampshire. We've 796 00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:46,480 Speaker 2: got a lot of campaign stuff to talk about in 797 00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:48,880 Speaker 2: the next couple of weeks. Here Mick Malvanny, Happy Thanksgiving, 798 00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:52,560 Speaker 2: Mick happy Turkey. I know they won't be talking about politics. 799 00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:55,319 Speaker 6: No politics in his house, naps. 800 00:38:55,200 --> 00:39:00,520 Speaker 2: What's wrong with my family? This is Bloomberg. Thanks for 801 00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,040 Speaker 2: listening to the Sound On podcast. Make sure to subscribe 802 00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:05,880 Speaker 2: if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else 803 00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:08,399 Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, and you can find us live 804 00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:11,799 Speaker 2: every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern Time 805 00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:15,320 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.