1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kettas live weekdays at noon 3 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto 4 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:28,480 Speaker 2: Iran's president reiterating that Iran is ready to end the war, 7 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 2: but it wants certain guarantees, of course, asks for guarantees 8 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: that Iran has already made. The US has made asks 9 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:35,839 Speaker 2: of its own in terms of what it would take 10 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:38,559 Speaker 2: to reach a cesfire a fifteen point plan, as there 11 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 2: is still diplomacy being pursued, perhaps at least on the 12 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 2: US side, though Iran has consistently pushed back on the 13 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 2: idea of direct talks happening all of this as the 14 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 2: war is still ongoing for a thirty second day. We 15 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:55,040 Speaker 2: got a status update on that and on negotiations from 16 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 2: the Pentagon earlier today when we heard this from the 17 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 2: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. 18 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:02,480 Speaker 3: The lastey four hours saw the lowest number of enemy 19 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 3: missiles and drones fired by Iran. They will go underground, 20 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:10,560 Speaker 3: but we will find them. President Trump will make a 21 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 3: deal he is willing, and the terms of the deal 22 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 3: are known to them. If Iran is not willing, then 23 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:23,119 Speaker 3: the United States War Department will continue with even more intensity. 24 00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 4: We expect to hear from President Trump later today. He 25 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 4: has an event in the Oval Office schedule for five 26 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:31,039 Speaker 4: pm Eastern time, so that might be the next chance 27 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:33,319 Speaker 4: we have unless he's posting on truth social and he's 28 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 4: been prolific on social media just in the last twelve 29 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 4: to twenty four hours, with multiple posts, including one that 30 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 4: urged other nations to just take it, as he said, 31 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 4: either buy oil from the US or reopen the strait 32 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 4: on their own, saying, get your own oil. 33 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 5: The hard part is done. 34 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,440 Speaker 4: Bloomberg Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall is back at the White 35 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 4: House for US today and joins US right now with 36 00:01:57,400 --> 00:01:59,720 Speaker 4: the latest. Tyler, We're getting a lot of reporting here 37 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 4: that's sending the markets higher, with a potential off ramp 38 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 4: that's being offered by the Iranians, as the White House 39 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:09,359 Speaker 4: saying anything about this, well so. 40 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 6: Far at this moment, Joe, this is just breaking right 41 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 6: now over the terminal, and as you and Kelly already outlined, 42 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:17,640 Speaker 6: some caution here as Iranian state media reports that Iran's 43 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:20,360 Speaker 6: president says the country is ready to end the war, 44 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 6: but needs to see some of those demands and guarantees. 45 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:26,640 Speaker 6: Not necessarily new, right, considering that we had reporting last 46 00:02:26,639 --> 00:02:29,360 Speaker 6: week that Iran had laid out a rebuttal five point 47 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 6: plan to the US's negotiating stance, which included some demands, 48 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:37,399 Speaker 6: including pledges that the US and Israel would it never 49 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 6: strike Iran again, that there would be war reparations paid 50 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 6: to Iran, and also importantly that Iran would maintain sovereignty 51 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:48,080 Speaker 6: over the Strait of Remus. Because the future of the 52 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:49,919 Speaker 6: Strait of Hermoves and how that is going to factor 53 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 6: into any potential negotiation seems to be the big sticking 54 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:56,560 Speaker 6: point at the moment. As you well know, there's been 55 00:02:56,600 --> 00:02:58,520 Speaker 6: a lot of talk here in Washington today about that 56 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 6: Wall Street Journal that President Trump privately told AIDS that 57 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 6: he may be willing to stop military operations without reopening 58 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 6: the Strait of Her Moves, That reporting outlining that the 59 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 6: US would instead pressure around diplomatically to reopen that critical 60 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 6: waterway and then turn to allies and pressure them to 61 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 6: help to secure the strait, which of course is already happening. 62 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 6: You mentioned President Trump's post on truth Social earlier today 63 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 6: where he heaped on that criticism of allies when it 64 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 6: comes to energy commodities being stuck as those disruptions continue, 65 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 6: telling them that they should either buy their get fuel 66 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 6: from the US or go in and take it on 67 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 6: their own. Joe and Keiley, as you well know, we 68 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 6: did get that update earlier today where Defense Secretary Pete 69 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 6: Hegseth ultimately said that negotiations are quote gaining steam, but 70 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 6: that the US is going to continue its attacks until 71 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 6: a negotiated end is concluded. 72 00:03:56,720 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 2: Well, and Tyler, when we consider the reporting in the 73 00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal, the President was actually asked by the 74 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 2: New York Post about that, and he said, let the 75 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:05,640 Speaker 2: countries that are using the Straight, let them go and 76 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 2: open it. He went on to say, when we leave, 77 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 2: the street will automatically open. And he says his sole 78 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 2: function was to make sure they referencing Iran don't have 79 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 2: a nuclear weapon. And Joe, this is pretty incredible, as 80 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 2: we still consider even if it's not about reopening the 81 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 2: Straight and potential ground forces that that would require. What 82 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:25,760 Speaker 2: you still need ground force is to ensure Iran cannot 83 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 2: develop a nuclear weapon. Would that require going into the 84 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 2: country to seize that in Richie Ring. 85 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:32,919 Speaker 4: We talked to Michael Allen at Peaking Strategies about that 86 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 4: yesterday and the short answer was yes. But he did 87 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:37,440 Speaker 4: say an option could be if the President does not 88 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:40,599 Speaker 4: want to commit ground troops, just keeping eyes, keeping a 89 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 4: satellite above that site, staring at it all day long, 90 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 4: and from time to time showing people away from it. 91 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:48,159 Speaker 5: But I'm not sure that's a long term strategy. 92 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 7: Yeah. 93 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 2: Well, let's get some thoughts on that as we turn 94 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 2: to our next guest, and we thank Tyler Kendall for 95 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 2: her reporting at the White House but joining us now 96 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 2: as Hagar Shamali, the former director for Syria and Lebanon 97 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:00,159 Speaker 2: at the National Security Council, also CEO and founder of 98 00:05:00,200 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 2: Greenwich Media's strategy Sigar. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. 99 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,560 Speaker 2: When you consider the various signals that we were getting, 100 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 2: both on the US and the Iranian side, as they 101 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:12,840 Speaker 2: maybe are pursuing some kind of off ramp here, do 102 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 2: you buy it or are you thinking there could be 103 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:17,480 Speaker 2: more escalation to come in the not so distant future. 104 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:20,600 Speaker 8: Well, you actually really got to the heart of it. 105 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:23,240 Speaker 9: I still look at this as just a negotiating tactic 106 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:24,039 Speaker 9: on both sides. 107 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:25,360 Speaker 8: Both are playing there. 108 00:05:25,400 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 9: It's negotiating gambits really on both sides here, and I 109 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 9: don't entirely buy it. 110 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 8: And the reason for that is that the two. 111 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:35,760 Speaker 9: Sides are so incredibly far apart. The US has not 112 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 9: budged from its fifteen point plan. We don't know all 113 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 9: the details of that fifteen point plan, but we do 114 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 9: know that it includes it focuses on not just the 115 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 9: nuclear enrichment and the nuclear material that's left in the country, 116 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 9: but also it's ballistic missiles. 117 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 8: Also, it's support for terrorist proxies. 118 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 9: And then the five point plan is completely absurd and 119 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 9: is a non starter. 120 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 8: And the Iranian regime is not budged on that. 121 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 9: The regime they're only is to survive this war, and 122 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 9: in their view, if they survive, they've won. 123 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:06,600 Speaker 8: And on the Trump. 124 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:10,320 Speaker 9: Side of things, it's yes, they want regime change, but 125 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 9: Trump is not willing to put boots on the ground 126 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 9: to affect that regime change. His view is I am 127 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 9: creating the scenario and the situation for the Irine and 128 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 9: people rise up, and it's up to them to do that. 129 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 8: But at the same time. 130 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:24,159 Speaker 9: He has clear military objectives, and if he can't achieve them, 131 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 9: then it's going to be a problem. I just view this, 132 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 9: to be honest with you, as posturing, as a negotiating tactic. 133 00:06:32,520 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 9: I expect escalation to continue, but I also don't expect 134 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:38,760 Speaker 9: this war to last for a very long time, given 135 00:06:38,800 --> 00:06:40,799 Speaker 9: what the administration had promised from the beginning. 136 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:44,839 Speaker 5: So Tegar, it's great to have you back. 137 00:06:45,000 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 4: What if the President actually made good on this report 138 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:49,839 Speaker 4: in the journal, we packed up all of our toys 139 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:52,719 Speaker 4: and left now without reopening the straight what would happen 140 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:53,279 Speaker 4: to the region. 141 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:55,200 Speaker 8: Well, first, I. 142 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:58,360 Speaker 9: Would note, by the way, that that is likely a 143 00:06:58,440 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 9: position he's taking as a message to Europe, which is 144 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 9: currently in a coma and they're not interested or willing 145 00:07:05,600 --> 00:07:08,359 Speaker 9: to get involved in this war, which I can appreciate. 146 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 8: Except the way the White House views things is. 147 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:13,680 Speaker 9: Well, we don't get our oil through the strait of 148 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 9: horror moves, you do, Europe, and so why don't you 149 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 9: help us? And that is likely a posturing position, a 150 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 9: message that he's conveying to Europe to say, listen, you 151 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 9: don't want to get involved, fine, I might go ahead 152 00:07:24,800 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 9: and close this war, and this war without the strait 153 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,600 Speaker 9: of horror moves being solved. But the fact is that 154 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 9: that affects as we know, it affects all of our 155 00:07:32,880 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 9: It inflects inflation, It affects our own oil prices. You 156 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 9: guys covered, of course, the price of oil right now. 157 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:39,640 Speaker 9: I would, by the way, I need to note this 158 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 9: because I don't think it's covered well enough. And I 159 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 9: know I'm speaking from a privileged perspective here. But when 160 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:47,960 Speaker 9: I worked in the Obama administration and I at the 161 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 9: White House, this was shortly after we imposed secondary sanctions 162 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 9: on oil. The price for barrel was one hundred and 163 00:07:54,920 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 9: twenty three dollars a barrel, which with today's inflation would 164 00:07:57,880 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 9: have been one hundred and seventy five dollars a barrel. 165 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 9: And so we've gone through phases like this, and Trump 166 00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,560 Speaker 9: is aware of that, and so there are things he's 167 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:10,119 Speaker 9: willing to pain, he's willing to take on for short 168 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 9: time period at least in order to try and achieve 169 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 9: his objectives much further. 170 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 8: But that's what this is about. 171 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 9: Could he end US war with a straight closed sure, 172 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:22,600 Speaker 9: because he doesn't view it as a pain point for 173 00:08:22,720 --> 00:08:23,440 Speaker 9: him so much. 174 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 8: But he's really here trying to message to the Europeans. 175 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:29,240 Speaker 2: Well, and I hear you on We've gone through phases 176 00:08:29,280 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 2: like this before, but it begs the dangerous question of 177 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:35,240 Speaker 2: whether Hagard this time is actually different. If we leave 178 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:39,840 Speaker 2: Iran knowing that it can exercise authority over the Strait 179 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 2: of Horror, Music, can control it, it potentially can charge 180 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:44,440 Speaker 2: fees in order to transit it, as we saw the 181 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 2: parliament approved yesterday of millions of dollars. Is that not 182 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:50,600 Speaker 2: going to fundamentally change the global energy market, which will 183 00:08:50,600 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 2: have ramifications ultimately here at home. 184 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 8: Yes, well, yes, you're getting at the heart of this. 185 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 9: There is First of all, I don't see any scenario 186 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 9: coming out of this where the Iranian regime gets any 187 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:05,200 Speaker 9: measure of control over the Strait of her Moves. It 188 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:07,319 Speaker 9: never had it. It's certainly not going to get it now. 189 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 8: Its own. 190 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:12,440 Speaker 9: Comparisons to Egypt managing the Suis Canal are absurd. That's 191 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:16,679 Speaker 9: a canal that needs management, that the Egyptians actually run 192 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 9: and pay in order to control and manage and keep 193 00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 9: clear and so on. That has nothing to do with 194 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:24,320 Speaker 9: what the Irani regime does regarding the Persian Golfer, the 195 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 9: Strait of horm moves, and so the Iranian view of this, 196 00:09:26,880 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 9: the regime view of this, is literally an non starter. 197 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 8: But that said, it's all of it is a risk. 198 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 8: The regime remaining. 199 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 9: At all is a risk, which is why the Gulf 200 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 9: study Arabia, for example, wants the US to continue this war. 201 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 8: They don't want a lybya sitting next to them. 202 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 9: It would affect their economies, it would affect their stability, 203 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:46,679 Speaker 9: and that's what that's largely what. 204 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 8: They live off of. 205 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 9: So that said, though, to get to your point is 206 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 9: that if you had this hypothetical scenario where the regime 207 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:58,359 Speaker 9: did control the strait somehow and we somehow accept. 208 00:09:57,960 --> 00:10:00,080 Speaker 2: Aren't they hookar I'm sorry to interrupt you, but but 209 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:01,760 Speaker 2: aren't they effectively controlling it? 210 00:10:01,840 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 7: Now? 211 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:04,720 Speaker 2: If no vessel feels safe enough to transit it because 212 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 2: of the threat of minds or other potential or drones 213 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 2: like we saw with the Kuwaiti oil tanker that was 214 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:11,960 Speaker 2: fully laid in just in the last twenty four hours, 215 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:13,560 Speaker 2: is that not effectively controlled. 216 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 9: They're certainly influencing the passage, freedom of navigation through the 217 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:21,679 Speaker 9: strait of hormones, but there are also options the US 218 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 9: hasn't pursued yet. And so, for example, the US could 219 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:28,680 Speaker 9: seize and invade and see certain islands that are near 220 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:31,120 Speaker 9: the Strait of Hormus, like carg Island. You're hearing a 221 00:10:31,160 --> 00:10:33,640 Speaker 9: lot of discourse about that. The US could partner with 222 00:10:33,679 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 9: Gulf nations. The UAE has already publicly called for a 223 00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 9: force that would include the UAE and others to ensure 224 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 9: freedom of passage through the Strait of Hormones. There are 225 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:45,840 Speaker 9: a number of military options we haven't pursued yet, and 226 00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:47,680 Speaker 9: they all come with risk. I'm not trying to pretend 227 00:10:47,760 --> 00:10:51,880 Speaker 9: that seizing islands is necessarily easy. There are two islands, 228 00:10:51,880 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 9: for example, that are occupied by the Iranian regime that 229 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:58,400 Speaker 9: are actually Emorati that the Emirates say is theirs, And 230 00:10:58,480 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 9: so there's a lot here that that could be pursued 231 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 9: that we have not yet pursued yet if we decide 232 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 9: we want to prioritize the freedom of navigation through the 233 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 9: Strait of Hormones. So I wouldn't jump to saying that 234 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 9: the regime controls it for sure. It's that we have 235 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 9: not yet decided if we are willing to hand that 236 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:18,040 Speaker 9: control over to them. 237 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:19,360 Speaker 8: I don't think we are. 238 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 9: I think that the administration is trying to posture here 239 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 9: and see who's willing to join them in this effort. 240 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:29,559 Speaker 8: They are also by sending so many marines. 241 00:11:29,080 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 9: To the region, marines, by the way, that have the 242 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 9: capability to invade. They're also trying to say, listen, we've 243 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 9: threatened you before with our military, and we've proven that 244 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 9: we're willing to exercise it, so don't test us. And 245 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:43,560 Speaker 9: that's why I wouldn't, you know, it's hard to say 246 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 9: exactly what will come out of these talks, but I 247 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 9: wouldn't say that we are definitely ending this war or 248 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:50,280 Speaker 9: that it's definitely extending. 249 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:51,920 Speaker 8: Trump is posturing here. 250 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 9: He himself is trying to figure out how much control 251 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 9: can he exercise over the. 252 00:11:56,720 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 8: Regime he guard. 253 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 4: It's great to have you, Higgarshaman Greenwich Media Strategies, Thanks 254 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:03,680 Speaker 4: as ever for being with us as we turn to 255 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:05,960 Speaker 4: our panel for their take on everything that we've been 256 00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:09,480 Speaker 4: talking about. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Genie Shanzino 257 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 4: are with us. Rick is our Republican strategist and partner 258 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:15,440 Speaker 4: at Stone Core Capital. Genie is our democratic analyst and 259 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:18,959 Speaker 4: democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash. 260 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 5: Center, Rick, We're looking at a market on a tear here. 261 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:23,560 Speaker 4: S and P is up almost two and a half percent, 262 00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 4: the Nasdaq is up almost three and a half percent. 263 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:29,760 Speaker 4: Oil is down because of these headlines that we are seeing, 264 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:32,000 Speaker 4: and it's hard to make a lot of sense out 265 00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 4: of this, to be honest, And I'm wondering how cautious 266 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 4: you think the market should be, our audience should be, 267 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 4: knowing that essentially what has happened here today is Iran. 268 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 4: The president of Iran has asked to codify once again 269 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 4: the guarantees that he is demanding for peace. Has anything 270 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 4: actually changed today? 271 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:52,880 Speaker 10: You know, I think it's a big deal to have 272 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 10: the Iranian president up there articulating this, standing up saying 273 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 10: I am the leader, I will be the onetating terms 274 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:05,600 Speaker 10: of an agreement. We've been playing, you know, sort of 275 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 10: whack a mole literally in Iran, you know, and a 276 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:11,920 Speaker 10: leader puts his head up and it gets whacked off. 277 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 10: Who's in charge? We don't even know who to negotiate with. 278 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:18,200 Speaker 10: Who are the Pakistani's talking to? So this is actually 279 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:21,679 Speaker 10: creating a little bit of stability, the fact that somebody 280 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 10: has raised their hand in this case, the president and 281 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 10: said I'm the guy. I'm going to tell you what 282 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 10: our conditions are. And that's where it then starts to 283 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 10: fall apart. Right the US, He's like outwardly rejecting the 284 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 10: fifteen point piece plan that the US has presented in 285 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:40,600 Speaker 10: the past. They've called it maximalists. They're not going to 286 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 10: do it. And then he reiterates the five points that 287 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:45,839 Speaker 10: he have a Shagari mentioned totally non starters to the 288 00:13:45,920 --> 00:13:48,719 Speaker 10: United States. They keep their ballistic missile program, they keep 289 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:51,600 Speaker 10: their nuclear program. I mean like they want to own 290 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:53,640 Speaker 10: the straight of hormones. None of this stuff is going 291 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 10: to be acceptable to the US or to Israel. And 292 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:02,160 Speaker 10: so are we in the beginn stages of a tit 293 00:14:02,280 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 10: for tat that will ultimately result in a legitimate discussion 294 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 10: of terms to solve this current crisis. 295 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 5: Way too early to tell. 296 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:13,520 Speaker 10: So yes, I think it's a good sign that there's 297 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 10: someone we can actually focus on and start to get 298 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 10: some energy around discussion. But no, it doesn't sound like 299 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 10: there's any progress in that discussion. 300 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:29,320 Speaker 2: Well, so, Genie, as we question whether this is another 301 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:33,280 Speaker 2: example of Taco Taco Tuesday, perhaps would you be surprised 302 00:14:33,280 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 2: if it's a very different narrative come Wednesday. 303 00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 7: No, I would not, Kaylie. This has kept us all 304 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 7: on our toes. You know, when you take a step back, 305 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 7: for two sides to negotiate, first of all, there'd have 306 00:14:47,400 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 7: to be two sides, and there are more than two 307 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 7: sides involved here. We've got Israel, we've got the Middle 308 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:55,960 Speaker 7: Eastern countries, We've got a number of countries around the 309 00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:58,520 Speaker 7: world dependent on the straight you know, so all of 310 00:14:58,560 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 7: that comes into play. But if you just even isolated 311 00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 7: to two sides, they'd have to come to an agreement. 312 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 7: And it's very difficult at this point to see what 313 00:15:07,520 --> 00:15:09,880 Speaker 7: we would give up and what Iran would give up 314 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 7: to make an agreement happen. Do we hope that happens, absolutely, 315 00:15:14,280 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 7: but very hard to see how that happens at this point. 316 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 2: All right, Geenie Shanzeno and Rick Davis are Bloomberg Politics contributors. 317 00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 2: They'll be sticking with us for more later this hour 318 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 2: as our next conversation coming up as an important one. 319 00:15:28,440 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 2: The Attorney General of California, Rob Bonta, will be here 320 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:33,080 Speaker 2: with us on balance of power. 321 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 5: Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much 322 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 5: more coming up after this. 323 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 324 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 325 00:15:47,640 --> 00:15:50,840 Speaker 1: Apple Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 326 00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 327 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg at 328 00:15:57,800 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 1: eleven thirty. 329 00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:02,000 Speaker 4: Thank you for joining us on the Tuesday edition of 330 00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:04,520 Speaker 4: Balance of Power here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. With 331 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,840 Speaker 4: gasoline clocking in at four dollars a gallon for the 332 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:11,240 Speaker 4: first time today, a national average, of course, reminding us 333 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 4: that a lot of people are paying even more than that, 334 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,160 Speaker 4: which will be part of our conversation with the Attorney 335 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 4: General from California we're going to be. 336 00:16:18,560 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 5: Talking with momentarily. 337 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,600 Speaker 4: The reason why the markets have been perking up, though, Kayleie, 338 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,640 Speaker 4: is that we heard from the President of Iran says 339 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 4: the country has the necessary will to end this war, 340 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 4: but expect certain requirements to be met quote, especially the 341 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 4: essential guarantees to prevent the recurrence of aggression. This was 342 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 4: a call with the President of the EU Council, a 343 00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:42,920 Speaker 4: President Costa. Those guarantees are non starters for the United States, 344 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:44,680 Speaker 4: so it's not clear that this moves the needle on 345 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 4: anything more than just giving us a sense of a 346 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:51,040 Speaker 4: country looking to end this conflict. It is pulling oil 347 00:16:51,080 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 4: prices lower. I wonder if gas prices might follow. 348 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, it is moving the markets, but we still remain 349 00:16:56,200 --> 00:16:58,320 Speaker 2: above one hundred dollars a barrel, not just on Brent 350 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 2: but on WTI as well. Translation to higher prices at 351 00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 2: the pump, it's four dollars on average now across the country. 352 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:07,119 Speaker 2: It is significantly higher in the state of California, closing 353 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:09,720 Speaker 2: in on six dollars a gallon. So we go now 354 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:12,200 Speaker 2: not to California, but to Bloomberg World headquarters in New York, 355 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 2: where we find California's Attorney General, who is with Bloomberg today, 356 00:17:16,400 --> 00:17:18,920 Speaker 2: Rob Bonta is joining us now on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 357 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:21,639 Speaker 2: Mister Attorney General, thank you for your time. Obviously, the 358 00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 2: President has looked to California, specifically an oil pipeline that 359 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:28,280 Speaker 2: the state wanted to remain closed, encouraging sable oil to 360 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 2: pump oil through it in order to offset what we're 361 00:17:31,000 --> 00:17:35,800 Speaker 2: seeing in terms of energy prices. Does the President forcing 362 00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:39,280 Speaker 2: these kind of issues, forcing offshore drilling in the Pacific, 363 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 2: for example, is that an answer somewhat to this spike. 364 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:48,440 Speaker 11: Now the answer is and the military conflict in Iran. 365 00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 11: He should never have gotten us into it in the 366 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:54,160 Speaker 11: first place. It has made gas prices spike. It lays 367 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 11: at his feet, his actions, his conduct piece of Iran 368 00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:01,680 Speaker 11: period full stop. His real stempts to reopen the Sable 369 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:06,040 Speaker 11: Offshore Pipeline will have no impact on the prices. The 370 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 11: amount of oil that moves through that pipeline is negligible, 371 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 11: a fraction of one percent. We don't have a national 372 00:18:15,600 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 11: energy emergency, despite the claims of the President. We produce 373 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:23,400 Speaker 11: more oil and gas than we actually use. And so 374 00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:25,879 Speaker 11: the attempts for the Trump administration to take over the 375 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:30,639 Speaker 11: Sable Offshore Pipeline and provide an emergency permit and federalize 376 00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:34,399 Speaker 11: it and to invoke the Defense Production Act is all 377 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:39,480 Speaker 11: inappropriate tramples on California's state sovereignty as well as violates 378 00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:43,040 Speaker 11: existing court orders. So these things are not connected. The 379 00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:48,639 Speaker 11: Trump owns the increased prices across the country. And remember 380 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:49,960 Speaker 11: this is someone who said he was going to lower 381 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 11: prices on day one. He's done the opposite, not just 382 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 11: with gas prices, but with his unlawful tariffs that we 383 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 11: had to move to strike down, and we did, and 384 00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 11: then he imposed new tariffs. You see, meanly very committed 385 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,399 Speaker 11: to raising the costs for Americans in Californias. He's also 386 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 11: turned his back on engaging in antitrust enforcement work, allowing 387 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:11,920 Speaker 11: for corporate consolidations that raise prices for Americans, and he's 388 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 11: declined to protect consumers, such as trying to remove the 389 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:21,360 Speaker 11: authority of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau CFPB. So time 390 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:25,440 Speaker 11: and time again, he has attacked the pocketbooks of Americans, 391 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:27,200 Speaker 11: raise prices instead of lowering them. 392 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:31,520 Speaker 4: Well, five dollars and eighty eight cents does have a sting, 393 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:33,400 Speaker 4: and I know that you're paying six dollars in Los 394 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 4: Angeles along with some other areas of California. Mister Attorney General, 395 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 4: will you be looking into gouging? How bad could this get? 396 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:44,399 Speaker 11: We always look at our price gouging laws to make 397 00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 11: sure that they're being complied with, especially after real emergencies 398 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:52,479 Speaker 11: like natural disasters, when the Governor of California issues an 399 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,440 Speaker 11: emergency declaration. But we will do everything in our power 400 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:59,320 Speaker 11: to protect consumers enforce the laws. But again, the reason 401 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:03,159 Speaker 11: for these spike a Trump alone. His decision to engage 402 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:06,120 Speaker 11: in a military conflict with Iran. We have seen that 403 00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 11: the data doesn't lie. Despite his attempts to deflect or 404 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:14,200 Speaker 11: blame others, he is responsible. These are Trump's increased gas prices. 405 00:20:16,480 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 2: Well as you talk about protecting consumers, that obviously has 406 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 2: many different facets, including ideas around competition anti trust, mister 407 00:20:24,359 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 2: Attorney General, which clearly there is a bit of a 408 00:20:26,320 --> 00:20:28,919 Speaker 2: divide between the administration and the state of California when 409 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:33,439 Speaker 2: it comes to anti trust efforts, like a primary example 410 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,440 Speaker 2: being Paramount's merger with Warner Brothers. How are you thinking 411 00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 2: about that moving forward? Is it realistic that a state 412 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:41,959 Speaker 2: like California would be able to stop some of the 413 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:43,639 Speaker 2: federal government's moves in this space. 414 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:48,400 Speaker 11: The difference between the Trump administration's view of anti trust 415 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:50,960 Speaker 11: law in California is we want to enforce anti trust 416 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:51,840 Speaker 11: law in California. 417 00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 5: Trump does not. 418 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:56,479 Speaker 11: The federal government has long traditionally played a historical role 419 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 11: in enforcing anti trust law, a leadership role the Department 420 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 11: of Justice, the FTC. But Trump has turned his back 421 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 11: on that role. He has advocated his responsibility. He's retreating 422 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 11: from doing the important work of holding corporations accountable when 423 00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 11: they break the law and engage in anti competitive conduct, 424 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 11: and he's failing to protect consumers in the process. So 425 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,840 Speaker 11: if he won't, we will, and California can step up, 426 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,919 Speaker 11: can do this important work along with other states if 427 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 11: they wish. We have concurrent jurisdiction with the federal government. 428 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 11: If the federal government fails to act, we can act. 429 00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,119 Speaker 11: We can do everything that the federal government could do, 430 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 11: should do, but is not doing, including suing to block 431 00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 11: a merger like Paramount Warner Brothers, if that's what we 432 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 11: decide to do. 433 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:37,879 Speaker 5: We have said. 434 00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:40,320 Speaker 11: Paramount Warner Brothers is not a done deal. They have 435 00:21:40,400 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 11: not clear regulatory scrutiny. We are involved in a vigorous 436 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 11: review right now and we will decide what we will 437 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 11: do in the future weeks. 438 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,360 Speaker 4: We want to ask you about the birthright citizenship case 439 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 4: going before the Supreme Court this week, mister Attorney General. 440 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 4: But just to be clear, we spoke with you the 441 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:59,160 Speaker 4: day that deal was approved. What's your timeline for deciding 442 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 4: on whether to sue. 443 00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:04,240 Speaker 11: We will sue timely if we decide to sue at all. 444 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:09,760 Speaker 11: We are monitoring the scheduled shareholder vote, the regulatory scrutiny 445 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 11: in Europe and We believe that we still have a 446 00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,360 Speaker 11: number of weeks to be able to make a final decision, 447 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:16,679 Speaker 11: including potentially. 448 00:22:17,720 --> 00:22:18,600 Speaker 5: Into early summer. 449 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 11: So we will continue to monitor diligently all developments and 450 00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,280 Speaker 11: make sure that if we decide to act, will act timely. 451 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:29,000 Speaker 4: We also pursued the Trump administration following the executive order 452 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,919 Speaker 4: on birthright citizenship. In that case is now going to 453 00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:34,720 Speaker 4: be heard and argued before the Supreme Court this week. 454 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 4: The first sentence of that amendment is, of course, all 455 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:42,119 Speaker 4: persons born or naturalized in the US, subject to the 456 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,639 Speaker 4: judiciary thereof are citizens of the United States and of 457 00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 4: the state wherein they reside. 458 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 5: Is this already a victory for the president to. 459 00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:54,160 Speaker 4: Have this language needing to be defined before the Supreme Court? 460 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:59,200 Speaker 11: Now the federal government requested this, so the US Supreme 461 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,280 Speaker 11: Court decided to up this case. They do not have 462 00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,159 Speaker 11: a strong case. Do do not have much of a 463 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:07,399 Speaker 11: leg to stand on here. Every lower court leading up 464 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,760 Speaker 11: to the US Supreme Court has found for my position, 465 00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:14,119 Speaker 11: which is that the constitution, the citizenship clause of the 466 00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:16,760 Speaker 11: fourteenth Amendment means what it says that if you're born 467 00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 11: on an American soil, you're an American period, full stop. 468 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 11: The federal government is advancing a fringe theory that no 469 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:27,480 Speaker 11: court has ever adopted in saying that the Fourteenth Amendment 470 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,639 Speaker 11: the Citizenship Clause does not mean what it says. And 471 00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:35,240 Speaker 11: so we believe in the plane unambiguous language of the 472 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:39,520 Speaker 11: Constitution of a associated statute, the Immigration and Nationality Act, 473 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:43,239 Speaker 11: and the US Supreme Court's own precedent. The wankim Arc 474 00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:47,720 Speaker 11: case in eighteen ninety eight interpreted the citizenship clause to 475 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 11: mean what it says, that if you're born on an 476 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,520 Speaker 11: American soil, you're an American. And so this is long 477 00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 11: standing law that's existed since the Fourteenth Amendment back in 478 00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:58,240 Speaker 11: eighteen sixty eight, the wonki Mark interpretation of the Fourteenth 479 00:23:58,280 --> 00:23:59,520 Speaker 11: Amendment in eighteen ninety eight. 480 00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 5: This is on hundred and twenty five. 481 00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,680 Speaker 11: To one hundred and fifty plus year old standing law 482 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:07,359 Speaker 11: that the Trump administration is trying to upend and redefine 483 00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:10,159 Speaker 11: unconstitutionally what it means to be an American. So I 484 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,359 Speaker 11: think they're going to have a bad day in court tomorrow. 485 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:14,399 Speaker 11: They do not have the facts of the law on 486 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,959 Speaker 11: their side, and I think it will be another humiliating 487 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 11: loss for Trump in front of the US Supreme Court. 488 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,160 Speaker 11: But another victory for the rule of law, the constitution, 489 00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,360 Speaker 11: the democracy, and Americans. 490 00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:26,600 Speaker 4: Well, we look forward to having you back to talk 491 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,439 Speaker 4: more about that, mister Attorney General Rob Bonta with us, 492 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,359 Speaker 4: the Attorney General of California, live from World Headquarters in 493 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,480 Speaker 4: New York. Let's assemble our panel to get their take 494 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 4: on what will be a major story in the second 495 00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,639 Speaker 4: half of this week. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and 496 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:42,680 Speaker 4: Jeanie Shanzino are back with us. Rick is our Republican 497 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:46,080 Speaker 4: strategists partner at Stone Core Capital Genius, our democratic analyst 498 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 4: and democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Rick, 499 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:53,920 Speaker 4: We're all going to be listening to these arguments before 500 00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:55,639 Speaker 4: the court, and I'd ask you the same question I 501 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 4: asked the Attorney General. Is this a victory for the president? 502 00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 4: Just the fact that we're having this conversation? 503 00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:04,680 Speaker 10: Absolutely, I think that I'd say a partial victory, right, 504 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 10: the fact that we're having the debate, that he's able 505 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 10: to use it to stoke up his base. Democrats are 506 00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 10: trying to do the same with folks who see this 507 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:19,639 Speaker 10: as a constitutional trampling of the Constitution. Yeah, this is 508 00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:22,160 Speaker 10: the debate he's looking for. It's not the first one 509 00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,280 Speaker 10: of these issues that he's thrown. 510 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:24,800 Speaker 5: Above the court. 511 00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:31,400 Speaker 10: There's one that was decided today even that falls into 512 00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:34,359 Speaker 10: the same category of a cultural war that he would 513 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:38,000 Speaker 10: like to have inside the United States. So, yes, Donald 514 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:43,120 Speaker 10: Trump is controlling the narrative, and that's what the White 515 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:46,159 Speaker 10: House allows you to do. It's a very powerful place 516 00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,679 Speaker 10: in the bully pulpit is a very powerful mechanism to 517 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:50,120 Speaker 10: do that. 518 00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:52,200 Speaker 6: Well. 519 00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,639 Speaker 2: And it does seem that the President is already trying 520 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 2: to control the narrative around what is likely going to 521 00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,280 Speaker 2: be some skepticism from the most of the justices around 522 00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:03,679 Speaker 2: this birthright issue. He took to true Social last night 523 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:05,920 Speaker 2: to say birthright citizenship is not about rich people from 524 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 2: China and the rest of the world who want their 525 00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,880 Speaker 2: children to ridiculously become citizens of the United States of America. 526 00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,120 Speaker 2: He says, Genie, it is about the babies of slaves. 527 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,240 Speaker 2: He goes on to say that the rest of the 528 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,639 Speaker 2: world is laughing at how stupid our US court system 529 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,800 Speaker 2: has become and says in quotes, dumb judges and justices 530 00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:26,800 Speaker 2: will not a great country make resuming attacks against a 531 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:28,040 Speaker 2: coequal branch of government. 532 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,640 Speaker 5: Genie, Yeah, that's right. 533 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:32,800 Speaker 7: First of all, Kaylee, don't I love it when Joe 534 00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:35,840 Speaker 7: Matthew is reading the Fourteenth Amendment in the middle of 535 00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:40,159 Speaker 7: a lovely Tuesday, So it has warmed my heart. The 536 00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 7: thing is is that you cannot change and rewrite the 537 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 7: Constitution with the stroke of a pen, as much as 538 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:51,520 Speaker 7: Donald Trump would like to suggest he can. That's not 539 00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 7: how we change our constitution. 540 00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:54,640 Speaker 8: There is an amendment process. 541 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:57,679 Speaker 7: If he wants to amend the fourteenth Amendment, we go 542 00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 7: through an amendment process. That's not what he is done. 543 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:03,439 Speaker 7: By no means is this a win for Donald Trump 544 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:07,160 Speaker 7: and his truth social post last night signals that, because 545 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:11,280 Speaker 7: in what universe can textualists and originalists like Sam Alito 546 00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:16,159 Speaker 7: and Clarence Thomas reread the Fourteenth Amendment to say anything 547 00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,879 Speaker 7: but what it says, which is what Joe Matthew just read, 548 00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:20,680 Speaker 7: which is that if you were born in the US, 549 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,440 Speaker 7: you are a citizen. So I think it's going to 550 00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,840 Speaker 7: be a sad day for Donald Trump, but a win 551 00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:27,720 Speaker 7: for the Constitution, which we like. 552 00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,919 Speaker 2: All right, Well, I'll be listening to those arguments tomorrow. 553 00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:34,680 Speaker 2: Of course, in actual ruling will come sometime later, but 554 00:27:34,680 --> 00:27:38,280 Speaker 2: it'll be interesting to see the descents if we get any. 555 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:40,800 Speaker 2: Genie Shanzano, Rick Davis, our political panel. Thank you for 556 00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,960 Speaker 2: joining us on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 557 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,280 Speaker 5: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 558 00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:47,480 Speaker 5: more coming up after this. 559 00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:55,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketchs 560 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,720 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon and five pm. 561 00:27:57,760 --> 00:27:58,520 Speaker 8: He's durnal on. 562 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,840 Speaker 1: Apple, Coglay and Android with the Blueberg Business App. You 563 00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:05,320 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 564 00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:09,359 Speaker 1: New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 565 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,399 Speaker 2: Markets are trading on each and every headline, it seems, 566 00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 2: coming out of the various parties when it comes to 567 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 2: the war in Iran. Obviously a statement basically a restatement 568 00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,919 Speaker 2: from the Iranian president about Iran being ready to end 569 00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,920 Speaker 2: the war if certain conditions are met, fueling some risk 570 00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:28,680 Speaker 2: appetite today, but it does run counter to what we're 571 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,000 Speaker 2: hearing or what we have heard in the past, at 572 00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,159 Speaker 2: least when it comes to whether or not these are 573 00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:35,680 Speaker 2: guarantees that Iron is likely to get and even maybe 574 00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:37,560 Speaker 2: counter to what we're hearing now from the foreign minister 575 00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:40,600 Speaker 2: who just told Al Jazeera Joe that there hasn't been 576 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,560 Speaker 2: an Iranian response to the proposal, the ceasefire proposal made 577 00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:46,960 Speaker 2: by the US, the Runan foreign minister telling Al Jazeera that, yes, 578 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,720 Speaker 2: there's an exchange of messages with the US, but no talks, 579 00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,719 Speaker 2: even as the Trump administration says that talks are not 580 00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:55,600 Speaker 2: only happening, but they're making progress. 581 00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:58,680 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's curious the idea of formal talks. We know 582 00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:00,720 Speaker 4: they're not at a negotiating tape. Well, so maybe that's 583 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,160 Speaker 4: the trading messages does sound kind of like we are talking, 584 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,160 Speaker 4: but that is the latest. Have not sent a response 585 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,200 Speaker 4: to the US proposal yet either, knowing that there was 586 00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,240 Speaker 4: a fifteen point plan that included a number of non 587 00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,480 Speaker 4: starters for Iran, and the five guarantees that were transmitted 588 00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:17,080 Speaker 4: to the United States from the President of Iran are 589 00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,360 Speaker 4: non starters here as well, beginning with the closure of 590 00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:20,680 Speaker 4: all US bases in the region. 591 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:22,520 Speaker 5: I don't think that's something that's going to be considered. 592 00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,560 Speaker 4: But the market is in its own world today, its 593 00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:27,760 Speaker 4: own world of optimism based on some of the rhetoric 594 00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:30,360 Speaker 4: that we've heard from the President himself and reports that 595 00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:35,680 Speaker 4: he is considering winding down this campaign without reopening the strait. 596 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:39,080 Speaker 4: That wouldn't exactly help oil prices, but they have also 597 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:42,560 Speaker 4: been impacted, heading lower now still above one hundred dollars in. 598 00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:46,600 Speaker 5: New York and above one hundred and four for Brent crude. 599 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,480 Speaker 4: We want to keep the conversation going on the markets 600 00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:51,240 Speaker 4: here before we turn to what's going on or not, 601 00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:53,560 Speaker 4: as the case may be, on Capitol Hill. Nor Molinda 602 00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:57,160 Speaker 4: of Bloomberg's market's correspondent joins us live from World headquarters 603 00:29:57,200 --> 00:30:00,160 Speaker 4: in New York, Nora. When these headlines first broke, the 604 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,560 Speaker 4: president of Iran was speaking as a man who was 605 00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:08,200 Speaker 4: in control and apparently interested in ending this war, albeit 606 00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,800 Speaker 4: with guarantees he's clearly not going to get from the US. 607 00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:13,520 Speaker 4: The markets just took off. Are we getting a bit 608 00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 4: ahead of ourselves here? 609 00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:17,600 Speaker 12: Well, the markets are just ripping right now, Joe. We're 610 00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,040 Speaker 12: seeing the markets really higher. We're seeing the S and 611 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,480 Speaker 12: P five hundred higher by about two point three percent, 612 00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:26,000 Speaker 12: currently on pace to close if it holds here, for 613 00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:28,959 Speaker 12: its best day since May of twenty twenty five. And 614 00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:30,840 Speaker 12: of course we still have to think about this in 615 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,400 Speaker 12: the quarterly landscape. I mean, this is the last trading 616 00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:36,520 Speaker 12: day of the month, and this quarter hasn't been that great. 617 00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:38,160 Speaker 12: I mean, you see the S and P five hundred 618 00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:41,200 Speaker 12: is still heading for its worst quarter since twenty twenty two. 619 00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:43,719 Speaker 12: So we still have all these different things in focus, 620 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:46,800 Speaker 12: especially as we really keep an eye on geopolitics and 621 00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:49,280 Speaker 12: we think about where we may go with this conflict. 622 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:52,480 Speaker 12: But really, clearly today we see Joe wall Street really 623 00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:55,680 Speaker 12: hinging on every last word, keeping an eye on every headline, 624 00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:58,400 Speaker 12: and really just clamoring from some sort of closure to 625 00:30:58,480 --> 00:30:59,760 Speaker 12: this conflict. 626 00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:03,280 Speaker 2: Well, Nora, how much is this just end of the 627 00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,400 Speaker 2: quarter activity? Also, would we be seeing a volatile day 628 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:09,400 Speaker 2: to day pretty much? No matter what, this has certainly 629 00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,200 Speaker 2: been a very volatile week. Kayley A vols a month. 630 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,640 Speaker 12: Really, I'm looking at the VIX right now, right now 631 00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,680 Speaker 12: hanging around the twenty six handle. But there really has 632 00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:19,800 Speaker 12: been a lot of rotations. We've been seeing a rotation 633 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,000 Speaker 12: out of tech a lot this month as people are 634 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,440 Speaker 12: really thinking about what it may be in terms of 635 00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,240 Speaker 12: spending and when it comes to capex for some of 636 00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:29,480 Speaker 12: these companies. So it really has been a bit of 637 00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:33,360 Speaker 12: a volatile start to the year, So not too surprising 638 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,320 Speaker 12: to see some of these swings, given the fact that 639 00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,720 Speaker 12: a lot of the headlines tend to be fixated on 640 00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:39,840 Speaker 12: what's going on in the Middle East. And we do 641 00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,640 Speaker 12: know that investors they just want a sense of clarity. 642 00:31:42,680 --> 00:31:45,320 Speaker 12: That's all the Wall Street really wants in this moment. 643 00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:47,800 Speaker 12: So if they see something that may indicate that we 644 00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 12: are approaching something more near term in terms of ending 645 00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,040 Speaker 12: this war, they're of course going to trade on that. 646 00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,840 Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg Markets correspondent Nora Melnda, thank you so 647 00:31:57,960 --> 00:31:59,840 Speaker 2: much as always for joining us. And as markets are 648 00:31:59,840 --> 00:32:01,760 Speaker 2: treading on the end of the war, we should remind 649 00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:06,000 Speaker 2: everyone watching and listening that the Pentagon is likely still 650 00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 2: going to make a request of Congress for another two 651 00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:12,080 Speaker 2: hundred billion dollars in order either to a continue to 652 00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:14,240 Speaker 2: fund the war, continue to prosecute it, or be to 653 00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:17,760 Speaker 2: refill all the stockpiles that we have already spent. But 654 00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 2: either way, and we heard this from Mick Malvaney, of course, 655 00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:22,280 Speaker 2: the former congressman from South Carolina, also former acting White 656 00:32:22,320 --> 00:32:24,920 Speaker 2: House Chief of Staff in the first Trump administration. Now 657 00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 2: you do the math on a number like two hundred 658 00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:29,120 Speaker 2: billion dollars and it may indicate that this war is 659 00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:31,000 Speaker 2: going to go on for a little bit longer than 660 00:32:31,040 --> 00:32:31,840 Speaker 2: the prevailing wisdom. 661 00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:33,440 Speaker 4: Right now, that's right, And of course we don't have 662 00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:36,760 Speaker 4: that supplemental budget request, and Piseth even implied that it 663 00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,520 Speaker 4: could be greater than two hundred billion dollars when they 664 00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:41,640 Speaker 4: get around to it. So clearly this is something that 665 00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,479 Speaker 4: Congress is going to deal with when they return. Kaylee, 666 00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:46,800 Speaker 4: It's a ghost town on Capitol Hill right now, save 667 00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:48,680 Speaker 4: a couple of lawmakers keeping the lights on. 668 00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:50,000 Speaker 5: It's a two week recess. 669 00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:54,000 Speaker 4: Codels are underway, and the President, well, at least he 670 00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:56,680 Speaker 4: says he wants everybody to come back to deal with DHS. 671 00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:59,120 Speaker 4: This is a department that is now in record territory 672 00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:01,320 Speaker 4: for a single agence or any agency. 673 00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:02,880 Speaker 5: Being closed in the United States. 674 00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,560 Speaker 4: The TSA is being paid by the President, but others 675 00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:06,600 Speaker 4: in that department. 676 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,200 Speaker 2: Or not Yep, Coast Guard, FEMA still going without paycheck. 677 00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:10,600 Speaker 2: So let's get into all of this now as we 678 00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:12,600 Speaker 2: turn to Bill Hoakland, who is here with us in 679 00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:13,480 Speaker 2: our Washington, d C. 680 00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:13,920 Speaker 8: Studio. 681 00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,800 Speaker 2: He's senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center and 682 00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:20,000 Speaker 2: former staff member and director of the Senate Budget Committee Bill, 683 00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:21,680 Speaker 2: Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. 684 00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:22,760 Speaker 5: Good to be back with you. 685 00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:25,200 Speaker 2: It's great to have you here. But as Joe said, 686 00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:28,200 Speaker 2: Congress is not here in Washington like we are. The 687 00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,760 Speaker 2: President to tell the New York Post he's considering calling 688 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,160 Speaker 2: them back, maybe letting them have easter, but cutting the 689 00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,000 Speaker 2: recess short. Can we first begin on what his actual 690 00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:39,000 Speaker 2: authority to do that is. This hasn't been tested really 691 00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:39,320 Speaker 2: in something. 692 00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:40,520 Speaker 5: I don't think it's been tested. 693 00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:44,080 Speaker 13: But it does have the power of the bully pulpit 694 00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:46,440 Speaker 13: to say come back and force them to come back. 695 00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,520 Speaker 13: I think it's problematic as to whether or not they 696 00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 13: would come back. The TSA is being funded as it is, 697 00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,640 Speaker 13: and so I think that there will be plenty for 698 00:33:56,680 --> 00:33:58,440 Speaker 13: them to do when they get back, you know. 699 00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:01,440 Speaker 4: Pinned at the top of Senator Like Lee's Twitter feed 700 00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:03,560 Speaker 4: right now is a note that says President Trump has 701 00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,400 Speaker 4: the power to convene the Senate under Article two, Section 702 00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:12,000 Speaker 4: three of the Constitution on extraordinary occasions. Indeed, the President 703 00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:15,760 Speaker 4: quote may on extraordinary occasions convene both houses or either 704 00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:17,160 Speaker 4: of them, reads the Constitution. 705 00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:18,760 Speaker 5: Is this like house of cards? 706 00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,160 Speaker 4: When he sent the sergeant at arms out to arrest 707 00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:23,440 Speaker 4: everybody and bring him back or is this Hollywood or 708 00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:23,959 Speaker 4: is this real? 709 00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:24,759 Speaker 8: Well? 710 00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:26,480 Speaker 13: I think it's real on the part of the president. 711 00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,440 Speaker 13: Doesn't that seem like something he would do? I find 712 00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,640 Speaker 13: it unlikely? Okay, but he can't. But apparently he has 713 00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:34,600 Speaker 13: the authority, as you've cited it. 714 00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:38,120 Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about what he would actually be calling 715 00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:40,000 Speaker 2: them back to do. It be funding the Department of 716 00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,319 Speaker 2: Homeland Security. Obviously, the House and the Senate on very 717 00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:45,839 Speaker 2: different pages as to how that to do that right now, 718 00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:51,400 Speaker 2: the bipartisan Senate compromise not not making muster with House leadership, 719 00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:53,359 Speaker 2: and I wonder how you're expecting to get this result 720 00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:56,760 Speaker 2: if we actually are going to see DHS funding standing 721 00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:58,759 Speaker 2: alone in some form, or this is more likely to 722 00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:01,719 Speaker 2: get folded into something broader, like a second reconciliation. 723 00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,240 Speaker 13: I think it's likely to get folded into something broader. 724 00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:08,520 Speaker 13: The President does have this ten billion dollars that was 725 00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,759 Speaker 13: in the One Big Beautiful Bill last year that he 726 00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,640 Speaker 13: has the authority. He put out that executive order that 727 00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,880 Speaker 13: does say use your existing authorities. That he used the 728 00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:21,120 Speaker 13: authorities that he has both to continue to fund TSA. 729 00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:23,680 Speaker 13: As you pointed out though that's only TSA, that's a 730 00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,520 Speaker 13: secret service is not funded in that in that as 731 00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:31,400 Speaker 13: an example, cybersecurity is not funded in that, FEMA is 732 00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:33,359 Speaker 13: not funded in that. So there still are some major 733 00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:36,920 Speaker 13: issues here, but I do believe that they will have 734 00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:40,200 Speaker 13: to figure out a way to fund this through a 735 00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:43,040 Speaker 13: different mechanism which they are talking about doing, and that's 736 00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:47,800 Speaker 13: through this crazy process called the budget resolution reconciliation process, 737 00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,880 Speaker 13: which I think, to be brutally frank about it, I 738 00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,280 Speaker 13: think is very problematic because there's a lot of steps 739 00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:55,960 Speaker 13: that are involved in passing a budget resolution and then 740 00:35:56,000 --> 00:35:59,919 Speaker 13: getting around to a reconciliation bill, and with the margin 741 00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:01,800 Speaker 13: as narrow as they are, and as we're going into 742 00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:05,600 Speaker 13: the primary season, it's going to be difficult, I think, 743 00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:08,280 Speaker 13: to find that get first of all, pass a budget resolution. 744 00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:09,200 Speaker 5: Huh wow. 745 00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:12,880 Speaker 4: Well that's that's a big deal because we have Republican 746 00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,400 Speaker 4: lawmakers joining us on the air every day acting like 747 00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,320 Speaker 4: it's already happened here at bill and but the Parliamentarian 748 00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:19,479 Speaker 4: hasn't even spoken yet. 749 00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:21,560 Speaker 5: You know, let's be very clear. 750 00:36:21,640 --> 00:36:25,200 Speaker 13: You first of all pass to pass a budget for 751 00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:28,759 Speaker 13: the fiscal year twenty seven, and the President hasn't even 752 00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:31,399 Speaker 13: submitted his budget for fiscal year twenty seven. We may 753 00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:33,279 Speaker 13: we may see that at the end of this week, 754 00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:36,000 Speaker 13: as I understand, But then Congress has to both the 755 00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,759 Speaker 13: House and Senate have to agree on that big blueprint 756 00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:41,000 Speaker 13: called the budget Resolution. And if they agree on the 757 00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:44,319 Speaker 13: big blueprint, the Budget Resolution, they can put in that 758 00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:48,960 Speaker 13: blueprint reconciliationship. There's a lot of steps involved here before 759 00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:51,080 Speaker 13: you can do the things that some of the Republicans 760 00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,120 Speaker 13: are and in Paris, I work for Republicans, but there's 761 00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,719 Speaker 13: a lot of steps here that will require them to 762 00:36:57,280 --> 00:36:59,720 Speaker 13: get done, which will push this well into the future. 763 00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:01,120 Speaker 13: And that's why I think the President's going to have 764 00:37:01,160 --> 00:37:03,880 Speaker 13: to continue to depend upon the ten billion dollars that 765 00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:07,160 Speaker 13: was in the ominous, the big, one, big beautiful bill 766 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,279 Speaker 13: to fund TSA well. 767 00:37:09,320 --> 00:37:11,400 Speaker 2: But it's not just about funding the elements of the 768 00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:14,680 Speaker 2: Department of Homeland Security. There are other things he wants accomplished, like, 769 00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:18,319 Speaker 2: for example, the Save America Act, which Republicans are now saying, oh, 770 00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:21,600 Speaker 2: we'll try to fold some of that into reconciliation. I 771 00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:24,200 Speaker 2: know you're pessimistic on reconciliation getting done in the first place, 772 00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:27,359 Speaker 2: but does that does that even work it within the room? 773 00:37:27,520 --> 00:37:31,640 Speaker 13: I am such a downer, I'm afraid because those are 774 00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,440 Speaker 13: policy issues. Those are not budget issues. 775 00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:36,480 Speaker 2: Even if you tie it to state funding. 776 00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:40,240 Speaker 13: Well you can. There's a little clause called merely incidental. 777 00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:44,360 Speaker 13: It's called the bird rule, and it's merely Yes, it's apology. 778 00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:47,840 Speaker 13: Maybe it has a budgetary consequence, but is that really 779 00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:51,120 Speaker 13: fundamental to the budget. As an example, if you'll try 780 00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:54,640 Speaker 13: to remember under the Biden administration they wanted to raise 781 00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:58,799 Speaker 13: through reconciliation. When the republic or Democratic controlled Congress they 782 00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,839 Speaker 13: wanted to raise the minimum age. Parliamentary looked at yes, 783 00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:06,279 Speaker 13: that's an important policy issue, but is it really budgetary oriented? 784 00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,000 Speaker 13: And she ruled it was not, and that violated the 785 00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:10,799 Speaker 13: So a lot of these things are talking about with 786 00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:14,680 Speaker 13: the Save Act, I think would run into a parliamentary 787 00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:15,600 Speaker 13: problem in the Senate. 788 00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:19,160 Speaker 4: You know, the bird bath be severe in some cases. 789 00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:22,319 Speaker 4: What about democratic priorities. If we tried to get others 790 00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:24,560 Speaker 4: to the table here and say, hey, we've got ACA 791 00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,640 Speaker 4: subsidies to deal with an expanded child tax credit, how 792 00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:28,439 Speaker 4: big coold this get? 793 00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:29,840 Speaker 5: It gets very big? 794 00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:34,600 Speaker 13: And you mentioned also farm price support, and the president 795 00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:37,040 Speaker 13: all that so this could come a very big from 796 00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:41,520 Speaker 13: an old budget an old budgeteer here who leaves deficits 797 00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:44,239 Speaker 13: do matter. We're going in the wrong direction. And then 798 00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:46,400 Speaker 13: we haven't even talked about, as you said, the two 799 00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:49,319 Speaker 13: hundred billion dollars maybe a supplemental. But by the way, 800 00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:51,319 Speaker 13: that two hundred billion is for this year, that's not 801 00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:55,719 Speaker 13: for fiscal year twenty seven, which the President indicated he 802 00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:58,279 Speaker 13: was going to ask another five hundred billion on top 803 00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:01,000 Speaker 13: of the billion or trillion, and that there are spending 804 00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:01,439 Speaker 13: point five. 805 00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, these are massive numbers were dealing with if it's 806 00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:07,000 Speaker 2: almost unfathomable. But Bill, when we consider all of these 807 00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:09,880 Speaker 2: different policy areas that they want to pursue and the 808 00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:13,239 Speaker 2: idea that reconciliation may not work so easily. If they 809 00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:17,000 Speaker 2: can't do reconciliation, are we looking at potentially the end 810 00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:19,800 Speaker 2: of the Senate filibuster If that is the only answer 811 00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:22,839 Speaker 2: to getting some of the priorities for this president through 812 00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:24,200 Speaker 2: this Congress. 813 00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:27,000 Speaker 13: I would say that we're on the cusp. But doing 814 00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:31,560 Speaker 13: away with the filibuster, Let's be clear, what's going on 815 00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:36,319 Speaker 13: right now is using a fast tracked reconciliation process to 816 00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:39,680 Speaker 13: avoid the sixty vote hurdle. And if this is the direct, 817 00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:44,160 Speaker 13: if we're going to continue to deggregate the Budget Act, 818 00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:46,880 Speaker 13: as I recall, as I worked on all these years, 819 00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:50,840 Speaker 13: I would argue, well, then just go ahead and repeal 820 00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:54,560 Speaker 13: the Budget Act and just what and do with the filibuster. 821 00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,000 Speaker 4: That's exactly what the President would like to see. Yes, 822 00:39:57,040 --> 00:39:59,759 Speaker 4: that's right, So kill the filibuster, Go arrest all the 823 00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:02,239 Speaker 4: law makers and bring them back into town, and you've 824 00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:03,120 Speaker 4: got yourself a bill. 825 00:40:03,480 --> 00:40:05,279 Speaker 13: I still think that there will be a lot of 826 00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:07,520 Speaker 13: resistance to doing a way with the philibuster in the 827 00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:10,759 Speaker 13: United States Senate. And remember that someday maybe Democrats are 828 00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:14,239 Speaker 13: in control, sure and both the chambers, and that will 829 00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:17,319 Speaker 13: then without the philibus, they can do whatever they want to. 830 00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:19,800 Speaker 2: Well, but the Republican proponents of getting rid of the 831 00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:22,680 Speaker 2: philibuster now say Democrats are just going to do it eventually, 832 00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:23,640 Speaker 2: so we better do it first. 833 00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:24,719 Speaker 5: John Corny is. 834 00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:29,360 Speaker 13: Saying this, Well, there are lots being said at this 835 00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:32,680 Speaker 13: point that once we get to the actual situation may 836 00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:33,520 Speaker 13: not be the case. 837 00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:36,360 Speaker 5: We need more Bill Hoglin's in Washington. 838 00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:38,640 Speaker 4: He never plays into the noise or the rhetoric, and 839 00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:42,319 Speaker 4: we appreciate that with great insights and analysis based on 840 00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:42,920 Speaker 4: your experience. 841 00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:43,879 Speaker 5: Bill. Great to have you back. 842 00:40:43,880 --> 00:40:46,120 Speaker 4: Thank you as always Bill Hogland, Senior vice President the 843 00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:49,520 Speaker 4: Bipartisan Policy Center and a voice of reason when we 844 00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:54,520 Speaker 4: need one here. Thanks for listening to the Balance of 845 00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:58,120 Speaker 4: Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already 846 00:40:58,120 --> 00:41:00,920 Speaker 4: an Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get at your podcasts, 847 00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:03,840 Speaker 4: and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, 848 00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:07,440 Speaker 4: DC at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.