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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a seconds.

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Speaker 3: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 1: We are presented by the Fan Duels Sportsbook. I'm your

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Speaker 1: host today, Brendan glad Sheen, joined by Sean Zarrillo and

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Speaker 1: Billy Ward. That means we have a UFC betting preview.

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Speaker 1: It's a big weekend UFC two to ninety from the

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Speaker 1: T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Got two title fights

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Speaker 1: that we will break down extensively, the Featherweight Championship and

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Speaker 1: the Flyweight Championship. We'll get to both of those five

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Speaker 1: main fights as well and nine prelims. We'll look at underdogs,

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Speaker 1: props and more and then finish up with some best bets.

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Speaker 1: But first we will start with the comine. We've got

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Speaker 1: Alexander Volkanovski significant favorite against Yeahyer Rodrigez. He's a plus

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Speaker 1: two eighty five on the money line over at Vanduel

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Speaker 1: Featherweight Championship. Pretty straightforward show this week, guys, because this

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Speaker 1: is this is big time stuff, so folks are going

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Speaker 1: to be dialed into the action.

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Speaker 3: Zarillo. When you look at the fight, of course, you.

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Speaker 1: Got a significant favorite on one side, and then Rodriguez

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Speaker 1: as a significant underdog.

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Speaker 3: How would you assess the fight first off? And then

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Speaker 3: how would you like to bet it?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 5: I made Volkanovski roughly of eighty percent favorite here minus

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Speaker 5: four ten, so I think anything up to minus three

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Speaker 5: to sixty is actually playable. Parlay him bit higher, and

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Speaker 5: I'll probably use him as a parlay piece. I'll find

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Speaker 5: either other things on the card I want to parlay

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Speaker 5: him with, or I will such as Cameron Simon, who

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Speaker 5: I think, by the way, even at minus six hundred,

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Speaker 5: I think Cameron Simon should be closer to minus one thousand,

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Speaker 5: but those other gigantic favorites on the card, or I'll

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Speaker 5: find I think I'm the mob card to parlay him

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Speaker 5: up with. But yeah, I think Volkanovski actually maybe the

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Speaker 5: value side at minus three p fifty here he does

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Speaker 5: everything so well, and just in terms of pure minute winning,

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Speaker 5: I think in a pure kickboxing match, right say, Volkanovsky

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Speaker 5: is incapable of landing takedowns here gets stuck in a

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Speaker 5: pure kickboxing match, I actually still think he would be

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Speaker 5: the favorite, even though Yayer is so long has ranged

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Speaker 5: with his kicks, phenomenal kicker, but Volkanovsky is the much

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Speaker 5: better boxer. He's going to come forward. He's going to

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Speaker 5: cut off that distance, throw a lot of faints, repeatedly

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Speaker 5: kicked Garriers leg, try to slow him down, get him stationary,

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Speaker 5: and then once he gets him slow down a little bit,

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Speaker 5: he's gonna start boxing him up. And Volkanovsky has the

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Speaker 5: way better hand. So once they get into boxing range,

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Speaker 5: outside of kickboxing range, but into boxing range just a

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Speaker 5: little bit tighter, I think volk is really going to

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Speaker 5: piece him up with the hands, land some big combinations,

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Speaker 5: and then he basically just has the easy button anytime

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Speaker 5: he wants it, which is to try to land takedowns. Here,

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Speaker 5: get top position and beat ya ear up with some

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Speaker 5: ground and pound. Yeah, here has some like submission skills

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Speaker 5: off of his back. We've seen it in his recent fights.

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Speaker 5: But Volkanovski getting out of those sub michigans against Brian

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Speaker 5: Ortego is almost a superhuman effort. If anything, I'd actually

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Speaker 5: be more worried. And I think Garrier's path the victory

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Speaker 5: lies in a knockout. I think he needs to head

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Speaker 5: kick Volkanovski or land a flying knee or a spinning

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Speaker 5: attack or something in order to wobble Vulk. We've seen

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Speaker 5: Volk wobble in the past, knocked down in the past,

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Speaker 5: had Mendez wobbled him, put him down, Max Holliday wobbled him.

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Speaker 5: He doesn't have the best chin He seems to get

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Speaker 5: hit and just goes on skates for a second almost

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Speaker 5: once every fight, but he has very good recoverability and

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Speaker 5: tends to bounce back from getting wobbled rather quickly. The

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Speaker 5: Mendez knocked down, he ended up knocking him out within

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Speaker 5: two minutes after being knocked down himself. So Vulk very tenacious,

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Speaker 5: hard to put away, but does have that chinny thing

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Speaker 5: that is, you know, making me a bit suspicious that

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Speaker 5: somebody might catch him at some point. But aside from yeah,

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Speaker 5: you're knocking him out cold, you know, similar to how

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Speaker 5: Leanne Edwards did against Kamara Uzman. I don't really see

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Speaker 5: Volkanovsky winning this fight at a significant degree. I really

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Speaker 5: think Yayur is drawing dead to a knockout. I think

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Speaker 5: I would rather bet Gayer to win inside the distance

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Speaker 5: at plus four fifty than betting his money line at

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Speaker 5: plus two fifty or plus three hundred. I just think

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Speaker 5: it's likelier, so much likelier that he wins by finish.

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Speaker 5: If he does win. But that said, you know, Volkanovsky's

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Speaker 5: going to justify his money line here is minus four

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Speaker 5: hundred money line. He does need to wrestle. You know,

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Speaker 5: I don't want him standing in a kickboxing match for

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Speaker 5: fifteen minutes. If I'm betting minus four hundred, I want

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Speaker 5: that grappling upside implemented. And I think he's going to

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Speaker 5: go to it. He's you know, faced other guys in

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Speaker 5: recent fights, or he has a grappling edge, but I

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Speaker 5: think this is like a severe grappling edge, and you know,

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Speaker 5: it justifies why his line is where it is. So yeah,

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Speaker 5: Volk going with the favorite not a big surprise here.

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Speaker 5: I'm going to wait until Taporia Eliotoria potentially gets a

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Speaker 5: title sh in order to bet against Vulk. I think

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Speaker 5: that's the guy who was the skill set to take

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Speaker 5: him out. I don't think Gayers will rounded enough to

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Speaker 5: do it.

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Speaker 1: And as we record on a Friday morning the day

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Speaker 1: before over at Fandel, Vulk is at minus three seventy five.

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Speaker 1: I said minus four hundred off the top. It's at

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Speaker 1: minus three seventy five at FanDuel. As we speak, Billy

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Speaker 1: Ward is the author of the UFC luck ratings that

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Speaker 1: you can find in the Action networkapactionnetwork dot com and

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Speaker 1: a similar feel Billy, I would imagine, because like Zillo,

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Speaker 1: it's not by much but slightly.

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Speaker 3: You think Vulk is undervalue.

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Speaker 6: I do, and I'm glad you, you know, kind of

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Speaker 6: slipped up and mentioned the change in lines there because

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Speaker 6: this problem, this line, this line has been moving a

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Speaker 6: little bit all week. I saw a tweet earlier in

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Speaker 6: the week about how much money was coming in on Rodriguez,

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Speaker 6: and I thought, great, like, let's get some more of that,

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Speaker 6: so maybe we can get Vulk down to minus three

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Speaker 6: hundred minus three twenty five. I'm kind of holding out

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Speaker 6: on the money line and hoping we can get just

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Speaker 6: a little bit better. But I'm with Sean. I don't

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Speaker 6: really see how year wins this. You know, he mentioned

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Speaker 6: the long possibly better kickboxing that was Max Holloway, who

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Speaker 6: VULC beat three times, much longer, theoretically faster.

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Speaker 4: Good kicks, no problem for Volk.

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Speaker 6: The only thing I want to add, I guess to

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Speaker 6: Sean's point about the wrestling, I don't know that Bulk

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Speaker 6: needs a takedown to exercise his wrestling advantage. I could

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Speaker 6: definitely see him dominating, just shoving him up against the fence,

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Speaker 6: dirty boxing, using his strength, pinning him there. He's just

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Speaker 6: so much physically stronger. You know, Volkanovsky might be the

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Speaker 6: best overall athlete in the UFC, especially when we consider

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Speaker 6: his conditioning. You know, he tends to build throughout the fight.

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Speaker 6: You know, we saw him almost take over in the

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Speaker 6: fifth round against Makachev despite being ground down for the

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Speaker 6: round prior to that, which is why I'm taking his

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Speaker 6: round four, round five or by a decision prop that's

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Speaker 6: minus one oh five. If I'm Volkanovsky, I'm playing this

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Speaker 6: one a little bit cautiously. In the first round, you know,

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Speaker 6: shove him against the fence, get a takedown if it's there.

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Speaker 6: If not, no big deal, because yeah, here's power and

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Speaker 6: all of his flashy jumping, spinning stuff. He's got maybe

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Speaker 6: a round or two of that before that significantly slows down.

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Speaker 6: So I Volkonoski, I'm happy dropping the first round or

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Speaker 6: making it close, maybe even the second round, and then

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Speaker 6: just turn up the volume, turn up the pace three

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Speaker 6: four five. You know, a late third round stoppage would

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Speaker 6: kind of ruin this bet for me. But outside of that,

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Speaker 6: I don't see Vulka just starting him early. I think

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Speaker 6: he looks to take over late. That's close to even money.

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Speaker 6: If the line keeps moving Rodriguez way, we might even

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Speaker 6: get that one at plus money, which I'd be real

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Speaker 6: happy with. Also another potential live spot if you know, Yeah,

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Speaker 6: Year comes out super aggressively, does all of this spinny stuff,

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Speaker 6: maybe puts volcan skates like we've seen in the past.

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Speaker 6: Then do we get him at minus one fifty on

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Speaker 6: the money line or something. I'd be happy with that,

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Speaker 6: But in terms of pre fight, I'll take that four

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Speaker 6: or five decision. Just keep an eye on the lines

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Speaker 6: as we get closer to Saturday, because if we get

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Speaker 6: minus three hundred or better, I'll just take Vulk straight up.

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Speaker 5: One more point about the takedowns too, Yeahyer also tends

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Speaker 5: to sleep, throws a lot of wild spinning techniques. He

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Speaker 5: tends to slip and end up on his back from

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Speaker 5: falling from throwing a strike about once or twice a

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Speaker 5: fight as well, So look for Volkanovska to take advantage

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Speaker 5: of those moments too, you know, jump on top lands

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Speaker 5: and ground and pound without even having to exert any

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Speaker 5: energy to land a takedown. So yeah, I agree with you, Billy, though,

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Speaker 5: I think you know, potential live spot after round one,

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Speaker 5: after round two, if that price moves in, you know,

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Speaker 5: towards volkanovs get ar towards the iere and away from Volkanovski,

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Speaker 5: get a better price on Volkanovska after the first five

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Speaker 5: or ten months. Definitely think I would take a dive

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Speaker 5: there as well.

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Speaker 1: All right, before we get to the flyweight Championship, let's

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Speaker 1: examine underdogs for UFC two ninety again. Prelimbs available on

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Speaker 1: ESPN Plus and you can also watch the main card

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Speaker 1: on ESPN Plus also pay per view.

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Speaker 3: Zarella. Where we looking this week in the underdog market.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, going with Shannon Ross in a flyweight bout against

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Speaker 5: Hazes Aguilar Ross is I think pretty easy to see

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Speaker 5: the more skilled fighter. He just gets hit once and

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Speaker 5: you hear, hello, darkness, my old friend. You know, come

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Speaker 5: in over the speakers. It's tough to be a UFC

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Speaker 5: fighter when you can't take damage. You take one punch

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Speaker 5: and you just sort of melt. But they gave him

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Speaker 5: an opponent and Hayes' Aglar, who has no career knockouts,

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Speaker 5: who seemingly does not have much punching power. He's more

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Speaker 5: of a jiu jitsu guy, more of a grinding I

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Speaker 5: will beat you with cardio, wear you down over the

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Speaker 5: course of fifteen minutes, and I don't really have major

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Speaker 5: concerns about Ross's cardio. It really is the chin So

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Speaker 5: if he's able to survive for fifteen minutes and not

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Speaker 5: get knocked out, I actually think he has the better

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Speaker 5: chance of finishing Agalar or potentially winning minutes and securing

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Speaker 5: a decision. So I will take the more skilled fighter

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Speaker 5: at plus money and just pray for the entire fight

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Speaker 5: that he doesn't get chinned. He does also have a

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Speaker 5: foreign treach advantage here, so there's some physical advantages as well.

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Speaker 5: He's the bigger man. I think Aglar, if there was

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Speaker 5: a you know, one hundred and fifteen pound men's division,

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Speaker 5: he might be more suited for their Ross is just

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Speaker 5: the bigger fighter. So yeah, bigger fighter, more powerful, and

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Speaker 5: finally getting a guy who is less likely than you know,

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Speaker 5: typical fighter to knock him out. So I'll take Shaddon

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Speaker 5: Ross a plus money and we'll not enjoy that sweat

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Speaker 5: probably all.

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Speaker 3: Right, it's a bet he'll make, but a fight he

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Speaker 3: won't enjoy.

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Speaker 5: Watching no very good.

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Speaker 1: Well, we do have those, and by we I mean

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Speaker 1: Zirillo and Billy from time to time, So that's not new.

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Speaker 3: It's not a new thing. If you're new to the podcast, Billy.

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Speaker 3: You are also looking at the prelim card for an underdog.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, real quick.

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Speaker 6: On Tran's point, I believe Aguilar has the shortest reach

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Speaker 6: in the UFC of any I think it might be

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Speaker 6: any fighter, even including the women's division.

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Speaker 5: It's close, it's not there's somebody who had a I

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Speaker 5: believe a fifty nine inch reach or something. But yeah,

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Speaker 5: sixty two inches is that is five guys? So yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 5: I mean major t rexs aren't there for Agar.

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Speaker 6: Absolutely, So if you're getting hit by that guy like this,

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Speaker 6: this isn't the sport for you.

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Speaker 4: It's probably not gonna work out.

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Speaker 6: But yeah, so I'm also looking at the pre lamps.

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Speaker 6: I'm looking at Marcine Pratchneo. He's fighting Vitor Patrino and

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Speaker 6: this is kind of just the fight that we keep

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Speaker 6: getting for Pratchneo. He was the one who fought William

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Speaker 6: Knight and like the worst fight ever where he just

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Speaker 6: stayed on the edge and kicked William Might's cap ball

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Speaker 6: Knight didn't really do anything. Patrino actually similar style, definitely

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Speaker 6: a brawler, never really throws a jab, just comes in,

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Speaker 6: big hooks, big strong guy, knows where they keep the weights,

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Speaker 6: but not super skilled with his hands, and he just

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Speaker 6: swings for the fences and tries to knock people out.

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Speaker 6: Pracchino has that kind of karate style, which defensively is

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Speaker 6: pretty sound.

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Speaker 4: And it's not just Night.

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Speaker 6: He fought like Villanueva, similar style, Khalil Rountree somewhat similar style,

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Speaker 6: not exactly, and he's been able to, you know, maintain

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Speaker 6: the range, kick the legs, keep relatively good.

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Speaker 4: Defense, much like Sean's pick.

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Speaker 6: When he gets hit, it's ugly like he looks like,

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Speaker 6: you know, one or two shots, he looks like he's

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Speaker 6: on skates, but he's managed to recover from those a

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Speaker 6: couple of times. He's probably the better overall grappler than Patrino.

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Speaker 6: Petrino's strength allows him to just kind of power wrestle

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Speaker 6: here and there. But I'm not saying he should be

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Speaker 6: the favorite or anything. We're getting close to two to one.

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Speaker 6: The lines moved his way a little bit. I also

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Speaker 6: think he's another good live spot, because Patrino's definitely the

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Speaker 6: most dangerous round one. I'm sorry, yeah, Patrino is definitely

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Speaker 6: dangerous round one. If Pratschneo can kick out his legs

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Speaker 6: and stuff like that, Petrino's not going to have much

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Speaker 6: later in the fight.

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Speaker 3: All right, excellent, there we go. There are two hunderdog picks.

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Speaker 3: Let's move on to the flyweight championship.

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Speaker 1: Brandon Moreno the favorite against Alexander Pantoa. He's at plus

257
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Speaker 1: one fifty eight, just double checking plus one fifty six

258
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Speaker 1: now Marino minus one ninety four as we record on

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Speaker 1: this Friday morning, Zarella.

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Speaker 3: Same as we talked about for the featherweight.

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Speaker 1: Just how do you examine the fight, your overall outlook,

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Speaker 1: and then how you'd like to bet this one?

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Speaker 5: So Pantoja two and over Marino. But the last fight

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Speaker 5: came in twenty eighteen. The first fight was on the

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Speaker 5: Ultimate Fighter, so you won't see it on their career records,

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Speaker 5: but it is a fight that happened that Pantosia won

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Speaker 5: by submission, and I think I would rather take Pantosia

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Speaker 5: inside the distance or by finish as opposed to betting

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Speaker 5: his money line here. I just think it aligns much

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Speaker 5: more with his win equity. If you gave Pantosia this

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Speaker 5: title fight two years ago, three years ago, I would

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Speaker 5: probably make him the favorite, but age catching up with

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Speaker 5: him getting later in his flyway career. Cardio not the

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Speaker 5: best beyond ten minutes anymore. I think he's the better

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Speaker 5: pure grappler. I think Moreno is the better wrestler based

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Speaker 5: on their past fights. Pantosia may actually have the striking

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Speaker 5: advantage early. It's difficult to tell how much Moreno has

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Speaker 5: leveled up his boxing because he kept fighting Davison Figuredo,

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Speaker 5: so it's it's tough to say whether his boxing got

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Speaker 5: better or he got better at fighting that particular style

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Speaker 5: of opponent. I do think Moreno has improved, and he

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Speaker 5: sort of has these two cheat codes as a fighter,

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Speaker 5: which are insane durability and insane cardio. You know, if

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Speaker 5: you if you just started off telling me a fighter,

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Speaker 5: we're gonna fill out his skills as we do, but

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Speaker 5: the base that we're going to carve this clay from

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Speaker 5: has insane durability and insane cardio. You're probably going to

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Speaker 5: fight for a title someday just based off of those

289
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Speaker 5: skills alone, and at fly being at flyweight where finishes

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Speaker 5: do not materialize nearly as much as at the heavier

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Speaker 5: weight classes. If you can make it to a decision

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Speaker 5: every single time, you're always going to be competitive. But

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Speaker 5: I think you know Moreno with the cardio advantage here,

294
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Speaker 5: probably over the final fifteen minutes. Pantoja's never been in

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Speaker 5: a main event. Moreno's been in multiple consecutive main events,

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Speaker 5: So final fifteen minutes, yeah, I think certainly favors Marino

297
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Speaker 5: Marina live after round two round three might be the

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Speaker 5: best way to play it. Ultimately, that might be the

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Speaker 5: individual best way to play this fight, because you might

300
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Speaker 5: be getting Moreno at plus money or pick them price

301
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Speaker 5: as he's coming into the vast majority of his win condition.

302
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Speaker 5: But if I'm playing Pandosia, which I'm going to do,

303
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Speaker 5: I'm going to bet him inside the distance at plus

304
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Speaker 5: three fifty. I'm going to be Pentosia in round one

305
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Speaker 5: plus eleven hundred or round two at plus sixteen hundred.

306
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Speaker 5: We're going to find ways to maximize the return if

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Speaker 5: Pantosia does take his back and does choke him out

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Speaker 5: early when they're both dry, because Pantosa is a very,

309
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Speaker 5: very dangerousbmission artist, and he's incredible at taking the back.

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Speaker 5: And Morino not only gives up his back standing, but

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Speaker 5: also when he gets taken down and goes to get

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Speaker 5: back to his feet, he gives up the back. Two

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Speaker 5: Now something to Davis and Figaredo was able to capitalize

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Speaker 5: on because he typically doesn't look for it. Pantosa looks

315
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Speaker 5: for the back every time against every opponent. He's one

316
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Speaker 5: of the best in the UFC AD. It. I'd say

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Speaker 5: it's him and Charles Olavera, you know, taking the back

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Speaker 5: choking people out with the ruineric cod choke. They're They're

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Speaker 5: right at the top of the list. So I'll take

320
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Speaker 5: Pantosia finished props and I'll probably roll that into a

321
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Speaker 5: live bet on Moreno, you know, I'm not like a

322
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Speaker 5: quarter unit Pan Soda Pantosian inside of the distance zero

323
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Speaker 5: point five point one each on the round props, So

324
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Speaker 5: you know you're playing with a third of a unit

325
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Speaker 5: on Pantoja's props, and then you try to bet you know,

326
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Speaker 5: a half, you know on a Marina live at a enterprise.

327
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Speaker 5: You sort of play around with both sides of it.

328
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Speaker 5: But I think that's the best way to maximize your

329
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Speaker 5: return and how I would want to play it specifically prefight.

330
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Speaker 5: I don't want Marina prefight. I want him live.

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Speaker 3: Billy.

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Speaker 1: Per your luck ratings, you have the Cannibal undervalued as well.

333
00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:12,600
Speaker 3: Is that the angle you were taking just on the

334
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Speaker 3: money line.

335
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Speaker 6: Yeah, Shawn's talked me in to take a little bit

336
00:16:15,880 --> 00:16:18,240
Speaker 6: of a sprinkle on you know, maybe early rounds or

337
00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:21,040
Speaker 6: whatever props on Pantosia. But I do like him straight up.

338
00:16:21,080 --> 00:16:24,440
Speaker 6: You know, we talk about durability. Pantosia has five career losses,

339
00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:26,880
Speaker 6: never been finished. Part of that is, of course the

340
00:16:26,920 --> 00:16:29,360
Speaker 6: weight class, but he's fought some tough guys managed to.

341
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Speaker 4: Make it to the end.

342
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Speaker 6: It wouldn't shock me to see Pantojo when you know,

343
00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:36,160
Speaker 6: rounds one, two and four or something like that, just

344
00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:39,240
Speaker 6: with ground control and then survive to the end against

345
00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,320
Speaker 6: Moreno as Moreno comes on. So I don't want all

346
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Speaker 6: my eggs in the finished basket. But I do think Pantoja.

347
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Speaker 4: Is a little bit underrated here.

348
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Speaker 6: You know, you look at the stats of trilogy is

349
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Speaker 6: where they were the same fighter won both of the

350
00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:54,120
Speaker 6: first two. That fighter is six and two when they

351
00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:57,640
Speaker 6: have a third one counting Volkanovski vers Holloway most recently.

352
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Speaker 4: So that's a pretty powerful, pretty predictive thing.

353
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Speaker 6: Obviously, we don't have a big sample size because rarely

354
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Speaker 6: do we see a trilogy when the same guy won

355
00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:07,560
Speaker 6: the first two. It's not something we're really clamoring for.

356
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Speaker 6: And then, just to Shawn's point, you know, maybe he

357
00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:13,800
Speaker 6: just got better at boxing Davison Figuredo. There's also the

358
00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:16,199
Speaker 6: factor that maybe Figuredo's getting worse. Right, those are some

359
00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:19,320
Speaker 6: tough weight cuts for Figuedo. He hasn't looked great physically lately.

360
00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:21,520
Speaker 6: He's you know, pulled out of the fight he was

361
00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:23,760
Speaker 6: supposed to have this weekend, moving up a weight class

362
00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,200
Speaker 6: for a different one. So I'm not saying Moreno hasn't improved.

363
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:29,560
Speaker 6: He certainly has, but it's really hard to judge how

364
00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:32,680
Speaker 6: much of that was Moreno's improvements versus Figuredo on the

365
00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:35,520
Speaker 6: decline because Figgi's a little bit older than Pantose and

366
00:17:35,600 --> 00:17:37,720
Speaker 6: Moreno you know, tough making the weight class.

367
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:38,640
Speaker 4: A lot of factors there.

368
00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:41,480
Speaker 6: So, like the money line, Sean's definitely convinced me to

369
00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:43,200
Speaker 6: take a sprinkle on that round one and round two.

370
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:46,320
Speaker 6: Also think Moreno live makes a ton of sense. Especially

371
00:17:46,400 --> 00:17:48,120
Speaker 6: if you think he wins one of the first two

372
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:48,919
Speaker 6: or three rounds.

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Speaker 1: So this is a situation where you're probably going to

374
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Speaker 1: get the best number sooner rather than later, right on

375
00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:00,399
Speaker 1: Pantosia as opposed to waiting or well, based on what

376
00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:02,160
Speaker 1: you just said, maybe it is a live situation.

377
00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:04,800
Speaker 5: I could tell you actually going up after Waiyans. You know,

378
00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:08,640
Speaker 5: pantosa Is, we've seen them fight before. But Pantosia two

379
00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:12,080
Speaker 5: inches shorter, three inch reach discrepancy. I mean, there's a

380
00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,040
Speaker 5: chance people see the way ends that go. Oh Moreno,

381
00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:16,359
Speaker 5: you know, as he continues to fill out in his

382
00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:19,120
Speaker 5: late twenties, he's getting bigger. Look at the size advantage

383
00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:21,040
Speaker 5: he has over Pantosia here. So I could actually see

384
00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:24,240
Speaker 5: it continuing to tip towards Moreno. You know, people parlaying

385
00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:27,040
Speaker 5: up Moreno. And yeah, your Rodriguez maybe a favorite and

386
00:18:27,040 --> 00:18:30,120
Speaker 5: an underdog or I don't know. We're definitely gonna get

387
00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:32,840
Speaker 5: a lot of Mexican money into this market with all

388
00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:37,360
Speaker 5: these Mexican fighters on this card. But yeah, I just think,

389
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:41,639
Speaker 5: you know, Moreno, if I was to choose a single

390
00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,160
Speaker 5: money line on the main card out of the ten

391
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,840
Speaker 5: fighters to play, it's Pantosia. I just think there's a

392
00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,600
Speaker 5: better way to play Pantosa. So yes, I think it's

393
00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:51,520
Speaker 5: fine to play Pantosa on the money line. Again, of

394
00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:53,560
Speaker 5: the ten fighters on the main card, Pantosia is the

395
00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:56,320
Speaker 5: only money line I'm interested in, I guess besides from Volk,

396
00:18:57,080 --> 00:18:59,400
Speaker 5: but I think he's the best best bet of those

397
00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:03,000
Speaker 5: ten fighters. I just think there's better ways to optimize

398
00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:05,040
Speaker 5: his likely win conditions. So that's so I'm going with

399
00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:05,800
Speaker 5: the finish promps.

400
00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:08,080
Speaker 6: And I think he was plus one seventy plus one

401
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:10,560
Speaker 6: seventy five earlier in the week, So maybe maybe now

402
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,120
Speaker 6: is the time to jump on Pantosia. It wouldn't shock

403
00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:14,520
Speaker 6: me to see it bounce back the other way. I

404
00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:17,240
Speaker 6: don't think we see a drastic shift in either direction,

405
00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:19,480
Speaker 6: just because these lines have been up for two or

406
00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,480
Speaker 6: three weeks on these title fights, so I think we're

407
00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:23,520
Speaker 6: more or less at least in the neighborhood of where

408
00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:24,200
Speaker 6: it's going to finish.

409
00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:26,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, if there's big movement on there coming closer to

410
00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,880
Speaker 5: fight time. We actually see lately, like during the card,

411
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:31,840
Speaker 5: as other fights are going on, people were putting in

412
00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,040
Speaker 5: large bets and I'll pull up the odds board, and

413
00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:35,959
Speaker 5: I'm like, why has this guy gone from minus two

414
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,000
Speaker 5: hundred to minus three hundred. There are some pretty drastic

415
00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:40,480
Speaker 5: movement right before these fights happened us.

416
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:44,440
Speaker 1: Before we go, we've got props, and then finally we

417
00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:45,800
Speaker 1: leave with best bets Zerrilla.

418
00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:47,880
Speaker 3: You've got a couple of props you'd like to share

419
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:48,520
Speaker 3: for this card?

420
00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, I just want to touch on the

421
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:55,399
Speaker 5: other fights on the main card. Dan Hooker Jalen Turner.

422
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:57,120
Speaker 5: I like the unders under one and a half hundred

423
00:19:57,160 --> 00:20:02,280
Speaker 5: two and a half Hooker. I guess both guys honestly

424
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:05,640
Speaker 5: rarely seeing size parody at one hundred and fifty five pounds.

425
00:20:05,680 --> 00:20:09,159
Speaker 5: Both used to having the reach advantage. Hooker seems to

426
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:12,200
Speaker 5: be declining physically. I know he won his last fight

427
00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:15,840
Speaker 5: bet him pretty big against Claudio Playis, but going back

428
00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,120
Speaker 5: down to one forty five, coming back up, been through

429
00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:19,920
Speaker 5: a lot of wars, seems to be slowing down. I

430
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 5: think Turner has a pretty significant speed advantage here, very

431
00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,679
Speaker 5: slick grappling skills. He seems to finish everybody from the

432
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 5: Anzac region just owns these guys from Australia and New Zealand.

433
00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 5: But yeah, like the under one and a half turner,

434
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:33,240
Speaker 5: very hit able, open knocked out a few times. I

435
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:36,440
Speaker 5: think we see a very high paced, very quick finish

436
00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 5: in that fight. Robert Whittiger Drincis du Plessi. I like

437
00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:43,600
Speaker 5: Whittager by decision plus two twenty. I'll probably consider betting

438
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:45,439
Speaker 5: the fight by decision of plus one seventy. But I

439
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:47,560
Speaker 5: just think if it goes the full fifteen minutes, it's

440
00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:51,119
Speaker 5: likely that Whittaker sees his hand raised. Duplessi a very

441
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 5: durable guy, and I think in the bigger cage, Whittaker

442
00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:57,399
Speaker 5: staying on the outside, finding ways to enter, you know,

443
00:20:57,440 --> 00:21:00,399
Speaker 5: blitz in, get back at a range. I think Whittaker

444
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 5: will find ways to stay safe in this fight against

445
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:04,600
Speaker 5: the guy who is a proven finisher who hits harder.

446
00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,359
Speaker 5: So yeah, I if I'm betting this fight Whitaker by

447
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:11,480
Speaker 5: decision plus two twenty, and then a fight that Billy

448
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,920
Speaker 5: will talk about Jimmy Crue and Alonzo Metafield. We saw

449
00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,600
Speaker 5: this fight play out on the I believe at USC

450
00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:23,399
Speaker 5: two eighty four, and that fight was plus three hundred

451
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 5: to go to a decision was plus one twenty to

452
00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:27,680
Speaker 5: the over one and a half. It went the full

453
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:31,120
Speaker 5: fifteen minutes. Both guys were very tired, but it got there,

454
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 5: and now the price drop only minus one oh five

455
00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:36,520
Speaker 5: over one and a half plus two sixty to go

456
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 5: to a decision. You know, I'm interested in taking the

457
00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 5: overs here. Alonzo Metafields seems like the more dangerous finisher

458
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 5: to me, is always dangerous in round one. Jimmy Crue

459
00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,400
Speaker 5: hasen knocked out in the past, but I expect Crew

460
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 5: to take a bit safer of an approach here and

461
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,159
Speaker 5: stay on the outside, be patient, maybe with to kick

462
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 5: the leg or avoid getting his own legs kick rather two,

463
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 5: because that's been a problem for him in the past.

464
00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 5: But we'll see him wrestling holding menfield up against the cage.

465
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 5: I think this may actually be a much more boring

466
00:22:07,680 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 5: fight than the iteration, the first iteration that we saw.

467
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 5: But I think any fight that goes long, that goes

468
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:15,359
Speaker 5: over favors Jimmy Krutz, So I'm going to look for

469
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 5: Crue live after round one. I like creup by decision

470
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:24,400
Speaker 5: at plus six hundred in addition to the overs, and yeah,

471
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 5: you know, if Manifield doesn't put Crude away in the

472
00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 5: first round, I think Crew takes over with the wrestling

473
00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:32,080
Speaker 5: over the final ten minutes, but I you know, I

474
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 5: don't want it all tied to the guy who is

475
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,959
Speaker 5: going to be looking for control and not damage. So

476
00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 5: a small bet creup by decision plus six hundred definitely

477
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:42,680
Speaker 5: going to have more tied to the overs in that matchup.

478
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,919
Speaker 5: Andre you know, not a particularly brutal finisher in his

479
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:48,560
Speaker 5: own right, So even if he has a cardio advantage

480
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:50,600
Speaker 5: down the stretch like we saw in the last fight,

481
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:54,399
Speaker 5: Menifield grabbing the cage getting point taken away, Metafield's durable

482
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:56,000
Speaker 5: enough to survive to at the end. I really like

483
00:22:56,040 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 5: the over one and a half there. The plus two

484
00:22:57,920 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 5: to seventy goes. The distance is you know, going to

485
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:01,399
Speaker 5: be as much of a sweat as the line would indicate.

486
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 1: Uh, you are correct, Menafield, Crute UFC tw eighty four.

487
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 1: Just looking at the prices Fan Duel had at the time,

488
00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:10,360
Speaker 1: I think Menifield closed at plus one ten.

489
00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 3: Kreu minus won forty.

490
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:13,840
Speaker 5: And you know I should mention too. Krup was winning

491
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 5: the first round, got knocked down at the end of

492
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:18,880
Speaker 5: the first round, Menifield won the second round, and then

493
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 5: Crude I believe won the third round, but Menafield got

494
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 5: a point deducted for grabbing the cage, which is why

495
00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 5: it ended up in a draw. So without that knockdown

496
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 5: at the end of the first round, crew wins without

497
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 5: the cage grab getting called them the third round, Manafield winds.

498
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 5: So you know, it played out closer to what was

499
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,119
Speaker 5: a fifty fifty fight. But at the same time, crewt

500
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,439
Speaker 5: seemed like he had the upside with the grappling to

501
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 5: win it closer to sixty percent of the time. So

502
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:43,919
Speaker 5: I had favorite cruit. I like Crude on the money line. Technically,

503
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 5: I just think you get a better live price after

504
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 5: round one.

505
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:48,359
Speaker 3: Billy Prop, what are you looking forward to?

506
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,600
Speaker 6: Yeah, I also have two. Both are fights that Zerula's

507
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:56,399
Speaker 6: touched on. The Shannon Ross Jesus Jesus Aguilar fight, I

508
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 6: should say that he was at He's.

509
00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 5: Not fighting Jesus. That would be a problem for me.

510
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 4: Much tougher fight for him.

511
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 6: But for the reason Sean talked about, you know, I

512
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 6: like Shannon Ross's upside. He's got huge reach advantage, should

513
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:09,400
Speaker 6: be the much better technical striker.

514
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 4: Agilar is a very very good grappler though, and.

515
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 6: Also with his tiny arms and lack of neck that

516
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:17,960
Speaker 6: makes it really hard to grapple him because he's a

517
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 6: tiny person, and when those tiny people lock up a

518
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 6: submission on you, you have no room to escape. There's

519
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 6: absolutely nowhere to go. So for that reason, I'm taking

520
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 6: the under two and a half at minus one forty eight.

521
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,119
Speaker 6: Basically the way I see it, if Aguilar gets a

522
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,199
Speaker 6: take down, he probably wins it on the ground. If

523
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,800
Speaker 6: he doesn't, should be easy win and probably finish for Ross.

524
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 6: So very binary fight on that one, and then my

525
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 6: other one. I'm going DDP Drake is dupless inside the

526
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 6: distance at plus four hundred sean kind of broke it

527
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,359
Speaker 6: down if it goes all fifteen minutes. I'd bet a

528
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 6: ton of money that Whittaker's one for his hand raised.

529
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 6: But that's a pretty solid line on a guy in

530
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 6: DDP who's finished almost everyone. He's fought great power, underrated grappling,

531
00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,959
Speaker 6: and we've seen Whittaker hurt just a little bit. You know,

532
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 6: he's dropped I think three times by Izzy between their

533
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 6: two fights. Joll Romero knocked him down a couple of times,

534
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 6: got knocked out by wonder Boy at Walter Waite. This

535
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 6: of course is over like a decade, so I'm not

536
00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 6: saying he has a glass chin or anything, but he's

537
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 6: getting off there. He's been in a lot of fights,

538
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 6: he's had his chin checked a few times, and DDP

539
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:18,119
Speaker 6: might have more power than any of those guys, with

540
00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 6: the possible exception of Romero. So kind of a puncher's chance,

541
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 6: you know, prop squad style long odds. I like the

542
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 6: inside the distance better than the knockout, just because I

543
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,160
Speaker 6: could see a club and sub I could see him,

544
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 6: you know, snatching up a neck of a wounded whitaker

545
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:32,359
Speaker 6: rather than.

546
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:34,120
Speaker 4: Try to exhaust himself punch him.

547
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:36,439
Speaker 6: So it's only a one hundred cent difference plus four

548
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 6: hundred intead of a plus five hundred.

549
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:40,120
Speaker 4: So I'll take the ITD line there.

550
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 3: All right, fellas?

551
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 1: And before we go, final bet, best bet you never

552
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 1: know you might get from Ziillo or Billy on this

553
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 1: particular topic.

554
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 3: Zerola a best bet please?

555
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:54,720
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's a final bet today, not a best bet.

556
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 5: We got n We got to honor Ruthus Robbie Lawler here,

557
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 5: retirement fight coming up. Typically we get these retirement matchups

558
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 5: from the UFC and you just cringe, licking at it

559
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 5: on paper. Frankie Egger, we've seen some bad retirement matchups

560
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 5: in the past where they feed these guys who have

561
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:17,880
Speaker 5: a name to these rising prospects. But I'm actually happy

562
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,680
Speaker 5: with how they matched up Robbie Waller here against Nico Price,

563
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 5: who is also on a poor run of his own.

564
00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:27,880
Speaker 5: Nico's seven years younger, but he looks just equally, if

565
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 5: not more shot than Lawler physically. Multiple these herderies looked

566
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 5: really slow in his last fight, got knocked out by

567
00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 5: Phil Row been through a lot of wars of his own.

568
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 5: So even though there's a seven year age gap between

569
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,360
Speaker 5: these two guys and Robbie's you know, in his late

570
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:48,119
Speaker 5: thirties early forties knocked out in his last fight, I

571
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 5: actually think Lawler looks physically, you know, just as capable

572
00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:55,400
Speaker 5: as Price does at this point of their respective careers.

573
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 5: So I think this is actually good matchmaking. I don't

574
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 5: think the line is representative of how competitive I expect

575
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 5: this fight to be, because Price doesn't really have the

576
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,199
Speaker 5: the physicality to pour volume on people like he used to.

577
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:13,399
Speaker 5: You know, Lawler's last fight against Brian Barberina, they kind

578
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 5: of traded went to war. Waller had success early and

579
00:27:16,880 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 5: then sort of got punched out it fell, you know,

580
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,640
Speaker 5: succumb to the pace of the fight. I don't really

581
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:24,360
Speaker 5: see Price being able to keep it pace on him.

582
00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,439
Speaker 5: If anything, I think Price justifies his favoritism here with

583
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:32,679
Speaker 5: grappling wrestling and in a Robbie Lawler retirement fight. I

584
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 5: think he's going to get the crap boot out of him.

585
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,360
Speaker 5: If he tries to do that, he might have success

586
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 5: doing it. But yeah, I see this one playing out

587
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:41,880
Speaker 5: on feet. I see it being you know, striking match

588
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 5: that's relatively competitive, and I think Lawlor should be closer

589
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,639
Speaker 5: to plus you know, he should be closer to thirty

590
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,920
Speaker 5: eight thirty nine percent here, you know, closer to plus

591
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:55,080
Speaker 5: one sixty then plus two hundred. So I like Lawler

592
00:27:55,160 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 5: down to about plus one ninety. You know, I don't.

593
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 5: I don't love betting these old guys in retirement fights.

594
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 5: I want to be very clear about that. But this

595
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 5: is an exception because I think they're giving an opponent

596
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 5: who is equally physically shot as he is. So two

597
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,160
Speaker 5: to one are better on a fight between two guys

598
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,040
Speaker 5: who both probably should you know, hang it up. I

599
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 5: think is a fine bet and happy to root for

600
00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 5: Robbie Lawler one more time. I'm not even like a

601
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:25,120
Speaker 5: particularly big Robbie Lawler fan. I should specify that too.

602
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 5: You know, if there was a guy I was ever

603
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 5: going to get sucked into like betting him because he's

604
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 5: a legend and I want to bet on him long

605
00:28:30,640 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 5: last time at BEGSP. But GESP is tired, retired, So yeah,

606
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 5: there's no like, you know, fan of me that's like, oh,

607
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 5: I need to bet on Robby Lawler here. I just

608
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 5: I think the line is a little bit off. So

609
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 5: Lawler or two to one final bet not a best bet,

610
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 5: but certainly I bet. I think you should make.

611
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, he took the words out of him out that

612
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 1: reeks of a final bet if I ever heard one.

613
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, final bet for a final fight, you know.

614
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, And the number you mentioned plus one ninety four

615
00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 1: is he's down to right now at FanDuel.

616
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's fine. You know, plus one ninety is fine.

617
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 5: I wouldn't go much lower than that. He was plus

618
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 5: two or five yesterday. So yeah, anytime it touches plus

619
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 5: two hundred, he seems to get hit, and I think

620
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 5: that's probably you know, a solid indicator.

621
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 3: Billy.

622
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 1: We hit on Crute Menifield in the prop section, but

623
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 1: you actually like crewit outright.

624
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 6: Yeah, if we were getting this earlier in the week,

625
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 6: I think he was actually a slight underdog at various

626
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:23,760
Speaker 6: points here minus one of five, that would be my

627
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 6: best bet as it stands more of a final bet.

628
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 6: But you know, as some pointed out it, it kind

629
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 6: of seemed like he had more of the upside other

630
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 6: than slipping and getting caught for that one moment. The

631
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 6: other thing here he is I think eight years younger

632
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:39,360
Speaker 6: than Menafield. So if we had two guys who you know,

633
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 6: had a draw, so we were in theory there even

634
00:29:41,960 --> 00:29:43,840
Speaker 6: there which one of them is going to be getting

635
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:45,080
Speaker 6: better and which one of them is going to be

636
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:46,920
Speaker 6: getting worse at this point in their career, And it's

637
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 6: Crew that's getting better right his last fight that was

638
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 6: also his first fight coming back from a knee surgery,

639
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 6: So I expect him to have improved a little bit,

640
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 6: just in that athleticism, quickness, not getting leg kicked, as

641
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 6: Sean mentioned, possibly some of his own I just think

642
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 6: he has all the upside in terms of improvement here

643
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 6: where Minifield is thirty five, we've probably seen the best

644
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 6: Alonzo Minifield We're ever going to see already, not that

645
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 6: he's in a massive decline, but he's certainly not getting

646
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 6: better at this point in his career.

647
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 4: With that said, with the line moving as much.

648
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 6: As it already has, I would probably try to find

649
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 6: some kind of parlay with, you know, outside of fight

650
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 6: to start round two and crew crewed in three year

651
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 6: decision some of those later props, just to remove some

652
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 6: of that big This is another one I think. On Monday,

653
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 6: I tweeted it was the free CLV pick of the

654
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,240
Speaker 6: week was Jimmy Krut and it's definitely moved that way.

655
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 6: Minus one thirty two on FanDuel right now, I'd still take,

656
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 6: but it's stretching it a little bit. I'd rather I

657
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 6: don't see him just starting Menifield in round one, So

658
00:30:43,960 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 6: if we can cut some of the juice a little bit,

659
00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 6: that's the way I'd play it. If you didn't get

660
00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 6: one of the better lines earlier in the week.

661
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 5: His best fight, his best line, by the way, for

662
00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 5: the first fight in February close was minus one sixty.

663
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 5: Consensus was closer to minus one seventy, So you know,

664
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 5: just take the recency bias off of that mark adjustment.

665
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 5: I mean, if you believe in efficient markets. Create is

666
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 5: the clear value side.

667
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 1: All right, gentlemen, great stuff as always, Zillo Billy Ward.

668
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 1: You can find them in the Action Network app should

669
00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:13,440
Speaker 1: they add anything else. Before the fights get underway on

670
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 1: Saturday again, two title fights part of the five fight

671
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 1: main card Night prelims prelims available on ESPN Plus and

672
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 1: then the main main event main card starts at ten

673
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 1: Eystern over on pay per view. Brendan Glasheen signing off

674
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 1: here on the Action Network podcast. I will note that

675
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 1: if you would like to see our faces and you

676
00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 1: want to see a video version of this particular podcast,

677
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:41,520
Speaker 1: we have the show called The Way In which is

678
00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 1: also presented by FanDuel that will be coming Friday afternoon.

679
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:47,480
Speaker 1: So if you've already tuned into this, great If not,

680
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,719
Speaker 1: there's also a video version before the fights get underway

681
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 1: on Saturday night that you can tune into as well.

682
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 3: You might have a parlay in there, so tune in

683
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 3: if you are so willing.

684
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,719
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Action Network Podcast presented by

685
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:02,959
Speaker 1: Fandul'll have a great weekend.

686
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:10,280
Speaker 3: We'll talk to you next week. Action Network reminds you

687
00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 3: please gamble responsibly if you or someone you care about

688
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 3: has a gambling problem.

689
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 5: Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

690
00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 5: hundred Gambler