WEBVTT - Daybreak Weekend: Disney Earnings, BP Reports, Apple India Shift 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:07.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:09.960 --> 0:00:12.480 This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the 0:00:12.480 --> 0:00:15.040 top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors 0:00:15.080 --> 0:00:17.439 all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, and 0:00:17.520 --> 0:00:20.840 look at how streaming can impact earnings at the media 0:00:20.920 --> 0:00:22.920 and entertainment giant Walt Disney. 0:00:23.239 --> 0:00:24.720 I'm Tom Busby in New York. 0:00:25.079 --> 0:00:27.920 I'm collying Hetkit in London, where we're asking what's on 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:30.280 the cards for BP's earnings. 0:00:30.520 --> 0:00:33.400 I'm Dog Krisner looking at how a production shift by 0:00:33.520 --> 0:00:37.240 Apple has made India the number one exporter of smartphones 0:00:37.240 --> 0:00:37.960 to the US. 0:00:38.520 --> 0:00:42.560 That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 0:00:42.560 --> 0:00:46.280 eleven three zero, New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to one, Washington, DC, 0:00:46.760 --> 0:00:51.040 Bloomberg ninety two to nine, Boston, DAB Digital Radio, London, 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:54.640 Sirius XM one twenty one, and around the world on 0:00:54.720 --> 0:00:57.840 Bloomberg Radio, dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App. 0:01:02.520 --> 0:01:03.920 Good day to you. I'm Tom Buzzby. 0:01:04.000 --> 0:01:06.480 We begin today's program with a look at a fresh 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:10.440 round of corporate earning, starting with the world's biggest entertainment giant, Disney. 0:01:10.720 --> 0:01:14.640 For more, We're joined by Githa raganathin Bloomberg Intelligence analyst 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:17.680 on US media. Well, Geetha, thank you so much for 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:21.759 being with us once again, booming theme parks, Blockbuster Movies, 0:01:22.040 --> 0:01:25.319 ESP and other networks, cruises, merchandising and with all that 0:01:25.680 --> 0:01:28.880 besides Netflix, no one has proven how important streaming is 0:01:29.440 --> 0:01:33.120 like Disney. So what do you expect this week from 0:01:33.200 --> 0:01:34.360 Disney's results? 0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:35.120 Yeah? 0:01:35.160 --> 0:01:38.200 Thanks Tom, So. The sentiment actually has been really positive 0:01:39.040 --> 0:01:42.440 for Disney, and it's really important that you bring up 0:01:42.640 --> 0:01:45.840 the streaming segment because I think investors are now laser 0:01:45.920 --> 0:01:49.600 focused on the rising profitability of the streaming business, and 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:53.560 we've seen Disney kind of completely turn that business around. 0:01:53.600 --> 0:01:55.240 I mean, just a few years ago, they were losing 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:58.680 something like about four billion dollars a year. This year 0:01:58.760 --> 0:02:02.240 they're going to a probably post almost one point two 0:02:02.280 --> 0:02:06.280 to one point three billion dollars in profits, So definitely 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:09.800 a lot of good stuff going on there. They've increased prices, 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:13.160 so we're seeing great pricing power. They're really kind of 0:02:13.200 --> 0:02:16.399 doubling down on their advertising business. And the one big 0:02:16.440 --> 0:02:18.799 thing that happened during the quarter, and I think we're 0:02:18.840 --> 0:02:21.080 going to want to hear a lot more about this 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:23.960 during the call is you know, everybody kind of knows 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:26.880 about this big Hulu custody battle that Disney was fighting 0:02:26.880 --> 0:02:31.480 with Comcast that has finally concluded. So with full ownership 0:02:31.560 --> 0:02:34.839 of Hulu now under their belt, we think it will 0:02:34.880 --> 0:02:38.640 pave the way for much greater and deeper integration with 0:02:39.000 --> 0:02:42.639 Disney Plus and that should really drive I think, overall 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:45.120 profitability as well as their advertising business. 0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:47.880 And they've got now three properties that are streaming right 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:50.040 Disney Plus, Hulu and ESPN Plus. 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:51.079 Are they all? 0:02:51.560 --> 0:02:54.000 I know, the crown jewel in that is Disney Plus, 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:55.800 But how are the other two doing? 0:02:56.120 --> 0:02:59.320 They're doing very well And again very glad that you 0:02:59.360 --> 0:03:02.240 bring that up, because yes, they do have ESPN Plus 0:03:02.360 --> 0:03:06.239 right now. But the really big debut that we're all 0:03:06.240 --> 0:03:10.400 waiting for is the what we call the flagship ESPN products. 0:03:10.400 --> 0:03:12.680 So what you see right now on ESPN Plus is 0:03:12.720 --> 0:03:15.760 more like the second tier sports. What we're going to 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:18.840 see with the flagship ESPN product, which launches in a 0:03:18.880 --> 0:03:22.079 few weeks, is that everything that you get on their 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:25.320 ESPN linear TV network is now going to be available 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:29.400 on their streaming on the streaming platform for thirty dollars 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:31.360 a month. And again What is going to be really 0:03:31.360 --> 0:03:34.160 interesting here, and you know investors are going to focus 0:03:34.160 --> 0:03:36.960 a lot of their attention on, is the bundling strategy 0:03:36.960 --> 0:03:38.720 that Disney is going to adopt. So we think when 0:03:38.760 --> 0:03:42.040 they have these three great marquee products, you know, the 0:03:42.560 --> 0:03:45.680 flagship ESPN streaming they have obviously Disney Plus as you mentioned, 0:03:45.720 --> 0:03:50.040 and Hulu and kind of the bundle there, it is 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:54.680 really going to drive streaming profitability pretty significantly going forward. 0:03:55.080 --> 0:03:58.560 Well, let's talk about subscribers, because Disney Plus now profitable 0:03:58.600 --> 0:04:01.080 has what one hundred twenty five million or. 0:04:01.040 --> 0:04:03.720 More, Yeah, somewhere in that region. Yeah, about one hundred 0:04:03.720 --> 0:04:05.080 and thirty million subscribers and. 0:04:05.080 --> 0:04:07.720 A lot of buzzworthy shows, not just and Or, but 0:04:08.000 --> 0:04:10.920 a whole bunch of Star Wars shows, lucasfilms as well 0:04:10.920 --> 0:04:15.360 as Marvel comic spinoffs. I mean, their content has really, 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:18.240 you know, really grown and matured. 0:04:18.520 --> 0:04:20.520 You're absolutely right. So, you know, this was something that 0:04:20.560 --> 0:04:23.159 they were struggling with just a few years ago. You know, 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:25.360 there was a lot of content, but people were kind 0:04:25.360 --> 0:04:28.080 of complaining that maybe you know, it was more of 0:04:28.160 --> 0:04:31.920 a focus of quantity rather than quality. They have definitely 0:04:32.080 --> 0:04:35.479 kind of completely rejiggered their content engine, and we've seen 0:04:35.560 --> 0:04:38.760 that kind of play out very very well, Tom on 0:04:38.800 --> 0:04:41.120 the on the studio side of the business. So we've 0:04:41.160 --> 0:04:44.440 seen you know, a lot more of their films kind 0:04:44.440 --> 0:04:47.600 of perform pretty well. Just recently, you know, we had Thunderbolts, 0:04:47.600 --> 0:04:51.200 we had of course, Fantastic Four, you know, so a 0:04:51.240 --> 0:04:53.919 whole reboot of the of the Marvel franchise entering a 0:04:53.960 --> 0:04:57.840 new phase. And you speak about content and how it's 0:04:57.839 --> 0:04:59.839 going to be such a great differentiator. I mean, just 0:05:00.120 --> 0:05:02.479 look at the next year. So just look at fiscal 0:05:02.560 --> 0:05:05.760 twenty twenty six for Disney. This is going to be 0:05:05.839 --> 0:05:09.719 an absolute bumper year for this company at the box office. 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:13.560 We're looking at the release of Zootopia two. You're going 0:05:13.600 --> 0:05:18.200 to have Avatar, Avengers, Mandalorian, Toy Story, so all their 0:05:18.200 --> 0:05:21.200 biggest franchises. And then remember all of that is going 0:05:21.240 --> 0:05:23.960 to come to the Disney Plus platform as well, So 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:28.040 we're going to you know, definitely see content keep driving 0:05:28.080 --> 0:05:30.039 that flywheel for Disney at least when it comes to 0:05:30.200 --> 0:05:31.400 subscriber momentum. 0:05:31.480 --> 0:05:34.240 Well, and it's not only the movies that you talked 0:05:34.279 --> 0:05:38.080 about next year, Avatar, Star Wars, Avengers, all coming back. 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:40.120 I mean, that could be a blowout year at the 0:05:40.120 --> 0:05:41.000 box office. 0:05:41.240 --> 0:05:43.480 It absolutely is going to be because you know, all 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:46.479 these movies, each of these properties, Tom, I mean, they 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:49.720 generate easily. We're talking like, you know, one and a 0:05:49.760 --> 0:05:52.479 half to two billion dollars in you know, in global 0:05:52.520 --> 0:05:56.200 box office ticket sales, so you have multiples of those 0:05:56.279 --> 0:05:58.920 kind of coming out. You think of just even Zouotopia two, 0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:02.359 that's a huge, huge franchise when it comes to the 0:06:02.400 --> 0:06:06.000 Chinese market. So you know, they have all of these different, uh, 0:06:06.520 --> 0:06:09.000 you know, titles that are coming out on on the 0:06:09.080 --> 0:06:11.520 on the on the movie side, and then of course 0:06:11.560 --> 0:06:15.000 you have a whole bunch of a different series that 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:17.440 they have for Disney Plus. So it looks really really strong. 0:06:17.440 --> 0:06:19.880 I mean, the setup looks extremely strong for both this 0:06:19.960 --> 0:06:21.560 year as well as fiscal twenty twenty six. 0:06:22.040 --> 0:06:23.240 Well, a lot to look forward to. 0:06:23.360 --> 0:06:25.920 Disney Q three earnings out on Wednesday, that's ahead of 0:06:25.920 --> 0:06:29.880 Wall Street's opening bell Our thanks to GEETHA. Raganaffin, Bloomberg 0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:33.520 Intelligence analyst on US Media. We move next to earnings 0:06:33.520 --> 0:06:37.279 from the nation's biggest ride hailing giant, Uber, which, like 0:06:37.400 --> 0:06:40.080 rival Lift, is now offering a lot more than just 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:43.400 rides and for more. We're joined by Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg 0:06:43.440 --> 0:06:47.800 Intelligence Senior tech industry analyst Mandeep There is ride hailing, 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:52.120 Uber won subscriptions, Uber eats, partnerships with Instacart, Home Depot, 0:06:52.200 --> 0:06:56.400 Delta Airlines, and a burgeoning robotaxi business, including a deal 0:06:56.400 --> 0:06:59.560 with Lucid to make the next generation high end cars. 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:02.360 That's a lot going on. So what do you expect 0:07:02.360 --> 0:07:04.360 to see from Uber's latest earnings. 0:07:04.800 --> 0:07:08.200 I mean, look, when it comes to this quarter, you know, 0:07:08.279 --> 0:07:13.880 the futuristic stuff like the robotaxis don't really matter as much. 0:07:14.040 --> 0:07:16.760 At the same time, you know, everyone cares about the 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:20.640 ramp up of Wemo, so you want to see you know, 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:24.160 them expanding that partnership that they have in two cities, 0:07:24.200 --> 0:07:29.240 Austin and Atlanta. Wemo has talked about using you know, 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:34.400 different partners like they've recently announced a partnership with Avis. 0:07:34.720 --> 0:07:38.400 So it sort of puts Uber in a tough spot 0:07:38.480 --> 0:07:41.280 that they don't want to rely just on Wemo. At 0:07:41.280 --> 0:07:44.080 the same time, they've been doing their own stuff. You know, 0:07:44.160 --> 0:07:49.400 you mentioned neuro I think that probably will help them 0:07:49.960 --> 0:07:55.400 and lose it, you know, So to my mind, robotaxis 0:07:55.520 --> 0:07:59.600 is an important aspect of how investors look at Uber, 0:07:59.720 --> 0:08:02.520 you know, for the next five to ten years. BET, 0:08:03.160 --> 0:08:06.400 but there's no doubt that Uber still has the scale 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:09.520 with one hundred and seventy five million monthly active users. 0:08:09.800 --> 0:08:14.040 They've aggregated their demand when it comes to both delivery 0:08:14.240 --> 0:08:16.880 as well as ride sharing, and that is what has 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:20.360 worked to their advantage. So being the scale player, being 0:08:20.400 --> 0:08:24.240 able to grow ebit faster than the top line growth, 0:08:24.280 --> 0:08:27.880 that is what has driven that shift in sentiment for 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:31.000 the stock over the last three four quarters. And I 0:08:31.120 --> 0:08:34.440 expect them to execute on that. Where top line will 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:38.760 grow around sixteen seventeen percent, the ebitdel line would probably 0:08:38.800 --> 0:08:41.800 grow over thirty percent, and they continue to show a 0:08:41.840 --> 0:08:43.240 steady operating leverage. 0:08:43.840 --> 0:08:47.319 The one hundred and seventy five million active monthly users. Yeah, 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:50.360 with all the economic uncertainty, it's really an astounding figure 0:08:50.400 --> 0:08:53.160 that they're still adding customers. 0:08:53.160 --> 0:08:55.800 When it comes to ride sharing and delivery. I mean, 0:08:55.840 --> 0:08:58.880 these are integral part of our day to day lives. 0:08:58.920 --> 0:09:03.199 You know, everyone has to eat three meals a day. Now, 0:09:03.200 --> 0:09:05.160 you're not going to order it on Uber or door 0:09:05.240 --> 0:09:08.360 dash every meal, but there are always times when you 0:09:08.760 --> 0:09:11.439 like to use these type of services, and that's what's 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:16.040 drive the frequency for both door Dash and Uber. The 0:09:16.080 --> 0:09:20.440 field has consolidated now to these two players. I think 0:09:20.720 --> 0:09:25.280 Uber's partnership with instacart has also helped them sort of 0:09:25.360 --> 0:09:28.439 connect with more users. That's why that MAU number has 0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:32.559 grown faster over the last few quarters because of that 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:36.240 cross sell. But with that being said, look they've ramped 0:09:36.320 --> 0:09:40.880 up ads now. The reason why operating leverage has been 0:09:41.000 --> 0:09:44.000 better over the past few quarters is because ads is 0:09:44.040 --> 0:09:47.400 a one point five billion dollar business for Uber. That 0:09:47.600 --> 0:09:51.120 wasn't the case. And the reason why ads are working 0:09:51.440 --> 0:09:54.640 is because they have the scale, they aggregate demand, they 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:58.880 have the supply on the platform, and once you have that, 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:03.400 ads become obvious choice for monetization, and that's what they've 0:10:03.440 --> 0:10:06.760 been successfully able to do. Door Dashes doing the same. 0:10:07.240 --> 0:10:11.600 Lift's problem is because of the smaller size, their ads 0:10:11.640 --> 0:10:15.320 are just not as useful to the advertisers as they 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:15.920 are on just. 0:10:15.880 --> 0:10:17.520 Out ranging that volume of people. 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:19.280 That's right, Yeah, Well, I want to go back to 0:10:19.320 --> 0:10:22.480 the robotaxi wars because that's what it really is. And 0:10:23.000 --> 0:10:24.880 you're right, a lot of this is futuristic, a lot 0:10:24.920 --> 0:10:27.679 of it is five ten years, but there are more 0:10:27.720 --> 0:10:28.400 players than ever. 0:10:28.440 --> 0:10:28.640 Now. 0:10:28.760 --> 0:10:31.760 We know that Tesla just in June finally came out 0:10:31.800 --> 0:10:35.960 with its cybercab in Austin. Very small, very limited, but 0:10:36.679 --> 0:10:40.480 lift we talked about their self driving shuttles. Uber, you know, 0:10:40.920 --> 0:10:44.640 the partnerships and expanding more. However, way Mo looks like 0:10:44.679 --> 0:10:48.280 it has another partner in Dallas next year with Avas. 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:50.760 I mean, is it are they just hedging their bets 0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:54.600 or is there enough out there, enough business, enough partners, 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:58.440 enough autos that we're going to see this everywhere or 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:01.520 try to see it everywhere? And is it really going 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:02.800 to be a game changer? 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:06.520 I mean, just to give you a sense of Uber scale, 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:11.800 they do almost nine billion ride sharing trips every year 0:11:11.840 --> 0:11:15.760 globally and out of that US is close to four billion. 0:11:16.240 --> 0:11:19.839 So when you compare that to Wemo's current volume, Vemo 0:11:20.000 --> 0:11:22.520 is at a run rate of maybe thirteen to fifteen 0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:28.440 million rides annually. Uber does that in one day exactly. 0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:32.440 And Uber has that scale that no one else has. 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:36.319 And that's where Wemo, even though they're hedging their bets, 0:11:36.640 --> 0:11:40.320 I think partnering with Uber does give them that, you know, 0:11:40.440 --> 0:11:44.520 demand in terms of the user base and the volume 0:11:44.679 --> 0:11:47.400 of trips that they can do with Uber that they 0:11:47.480 --> 0:11:50.160 can't do elsewhere on their own. At the same time, 0:11:50.200 --> 0:11:53.320 You're right, I think Wevemo's approach right now is to 0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:57.760 hedge their bets and partner with as many people because 0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:02.120 they don't want to be overly ligned on Uber because 0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:04.719 it hurts the take rates. You know, in the end, 0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:08.840 it's all about how much is Uber gonna keep, how 0:12:08.920 --> 0:12:11.680 much is WIMO gonna keep, how much is fleet operator 0:12:11.840 --> 0:12:14.840 gonna get because there is some cleaning and maintenance involved 0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:18.360 with these autonomous rights, and you know, there are different 0:12:18.840 --> 0:12:23.319 parts of the ecosystem. So I think luring your reliance 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:26.760 on one player does serve Waymo well in the long term. 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:27.120 Well. 0:12:27.200 --> 0:12:29.640 Uber Q two earnings out this Wednesday, just ahead of 0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:31.880 the opening. Bell Lift is out that same day after 0:12:31.920 --> 0:12:35.440 the close. Our thanks to man Deep Sing, Bloomberg Intelligence 0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:38.840 senior tech industry analyst, and coming up on Bloomberg Day 0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:40.920 Break weekend, we'll look ahead to earnings from the British 0:12:40.920 --> 0:12:44.720 Oil on the Gas Giant BP. I'm Tom Busby and 0:12:44.840 --> 0:12:58.800 this is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Day Break weekend, our 0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:01.200 global look ahead at the top stories for investors in 0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:01.920 the coming week. 0:13:02.200 --> 0:13:03.679 I'm Tom Busby in New York. 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:06.440 Up later in our program we'll look at how a 0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:10.600 production shift by Apple is impacting smartphone production elsewhere in Asia. 0:13:11.000 --> 0:13:14.720 But first, following a deluge of European results, oil giant 0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:18.160 BP reports its earnings this week. The London based energy 0:13:18.160 --> 0:13:21.760 firm recently replaced its chairman amid pressure for a new direction, 0:13:22.400 --> 0:13:25.439 but has that change paid off for more Let's get 0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:28.800 to London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak Europe anchor Caroline 0:13:28.840 --> 0:13:30.079 hepgar Tom. 0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:33.400 BP is one of the big names of the oil industry, 0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:36.840 but it's lagged behind fellow oil and gas majors in 0:13:36.920 --> 0:13:40.679 recent years, with lackluster returns, a mountain of debt, and 0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:45.760 an aborted attempt to transition to renewables. Activist shareholder Elliott 0:13:45.760 --> 0:13:50.439 Investment Management has criticized the company for lacking urgency and ambition, 0:13:50.960 --> 0:13:55.359 appealing to new chairman Albert Manifold to focus on improving 0:13:55.400 --> 0:13:59.360 the firm's cost base and capital allocation. This is in 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:02.680 contrast rival Shell, which has focused its business on oil 0:14:02.720 --> 0:14:05.960 and gas and denied reports in June that it was 0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:10.439 in talks to acquire BP. Also to contend with are 0:14:10.679 --> 0:14:15.520 the sector headwinds a trading environment beset by geopolitical uncertainty, 0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:20.240 conflict in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine. 0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:23.720 The plight of oil markets and energy providers is such 0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:27.960 a precarious environment. It's something that Bloomberg's Asia Energy editor 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:33.280 Stephen Sapcinski expanded on recently, discussing the risks posed by 0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:35.160 current White House policy. 0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:38.240 While oil prices did rise and there is a fear 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:41.080 that Trump will do something that could restrict Russian oil 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:43.960 on the market, there is also the view that this 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:47.480 could be a taco sort of situation. Trump always chickens out. 0:14:47.800 --> 0:14:51.400 So how exactly will this play out? It's unclear, But 0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:54.120 because there are so few details, it's hard for people 0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:56.440 in the market to take a really bullish position on 0:14:56.480 --> 0:14:57.160 this at the moment. 0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:01.680 That was Bloomberg Energy reporter stephen's Chinsky. So can BP 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:05.360 put its best foot forward against a difficult backdrop. I'm 0:15:05.400 --> 0:15:09.239 joined Boblinberg's team leader for oil trading in Europe, Alic Nightingale, 0:15:09.280 --> 0:15:11.880 and our markets report to sam Un said, welcome to 0:15:11.880 --> 0:15:14.040 both of you. How can I start with you? Just 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:17.120 give us the context ahead of BP's earnings. What is 0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:20.000 your impression of the first half of the year for BP. 0:15:20.200 --> 0:15:21.560 Do they have a turnaround plan. 0:15:22.600 --> 0:15:27.120 Yeah, they've got a turnaround plan. They haven't got into 0:15:27.200 --> 0:15:31.080 the real meat of the turnaround yet. They need to 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:34.840 kind of start looking at att disposals and you know, 0:15:34.960 --> 0:15:36.920 a lot of the big work is still to come. 0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:41.760 They have got a new chairman, which was an important 0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:46.120 part part of, you know, their strategy and just getting 0:15:46.120 --> 0:15:49.280 things on the right footing. They've made changes to the board, 0:15:49.600 --> 0:15:52.520 so things are starting to come into place, and now 0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:55.920 they're under pressure to deliver on the big kind of 0:15:55.920 --> 0:15:58.680 strategic reset that they've they promised investors. 0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:06.400 Has uncertainty from tariffs and geopolitical instability affected the market 0:16:06.560 --> 0:16:11.680 around BP, the oil markets, that's a great question. 0:16:12.240 --> 0:16:15.680 And what we're seeing time and time again so far 0:16:15.720 --> 0:16:19.160 this quarter is that the oil majors and oil companies 0:16:19.160 --> 0:16:21.640 are saying that they've had the wrong kind of volatility. 0:16:22.480 --> 0:16:25.560 These guys are really good at trading, you know, supply 0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:28.360 and demand. They've got better visibility than anybody else on 0:16:29.000 --> 0:16:31.920 where things are tight, when there's not enough supply, or 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:36.160 then when there's too much supply. But when you move 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:41.000 into kind of tweets and geopolitical things and things that 0:16:41.280 --> 0:16:43.520 you know, we have as good an idea as anybody 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:46.680 else of whether the US is going to bomb Iran 0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:49.600 or something like that. You know, it becomes a bit 0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:51.680 more of a guessing game. So what they do. They 0:16:51.800 --> 0:16:55.680 retreat from risk. It doesn't mean that they become worse traders. 0:16:55.680 --> 0:16:58.200 It just means that they retreat from risk and risk 0:16:58.720 --> 0:17:01.920 and trading is a big part of kind of profit 0:17:01.960 --> 0:17:04.720 boosting for the European all majors like BP and Shell. 0:17:05.280 --> 0:17:08.199 So I think he's probably been a tougher environment on 0:17:08.280 --> 0:17:12.600 the trading side for the whole space were yet to see. 0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:15.800 BP didn't warn about that in their updates, so maybe 0:17:15.840 --> 0:17:18.040 they did, Okay, but I think there is you know, 0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:24.639 Total said they have to be careful about trading. Shell 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:27.919 said that there's a risk of environment equanor similar stuff. 0:17:27.960 --> 0:17:30.919 So yeah, there are issues around just trying to be 0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:34.879 more risk averse when you've got these geopolitical headlines and 0:17:34.880 --> 0:17:37.600 headlines that are not about supply demand fundamentals. 0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:42.320 Sam, how are BP's results likely to compare with other 0:17:42.480 --> 0:17:46.439 energy companies in the market in the middle of results season. 0:17:46.880 --> 0:17:48.640 Yeah, And I think actually what I was just talking 0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:51.680 about there is really the interesting part of it, because 0:17:51.720 --> 0:17:55.000 BP didn't have such a weak trading update, you know, 0:17:55.040 --> 0:17:56.520 in terms of how their all training is doing and 0:17:56.560 --> 0:17:58.920 that kind of thing. But that has been what we've 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:02.680 heard from everyone else across the sector, and what you're 0:18:02.680 --> 0:18:05.439 also hearing as well is that investors are trying to 0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:07.280 sort of look through this a little bit. You know 0:18:07.320 --> 0:18:09.880 that hopefully with tariff deals getting done, with a little 0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:12.240 bit of that those trade tensions coming down, the old 0:18:12.280 --> 0:18:15.600 traders can get back to focusing on the supply demand 0:18:15.640 --> 0:18:18.960 fundamentals and get away from the kind of as I 0:18:19.040 --> 0:18:22.119 was saying, the kind of wrong kind of volatility. However, 0:18:22.359 --> 0:18:24.840 you know, I think, as we've seen with the copper market, 0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:30.200 for example, the potential that these unpredictable events can keep 0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:33.040 happening is very much still in play. So I think 0:18:33.119 --> 0:18:35.800 that will be a key part for BP, and then 0:18:35.840 --> 0:18:37.200 across the rest of their results it will be the 0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:39.080 same things as a lot of the other companies with 0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:43.080 the trading, with the trading almost put aside, if you like, 0:18:43.080 --> 0:18:45.440 because they release a little bit earlier on that, how 0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:48.120 are the actual operations doing, how are they performing within 0:18:48.160 --> 0:18:51.639 the company, And then for BP, specifically buybacks. You know, 0:18:51.640 --> 0:18:53.119 are they going to keep up the pace of bibacs 0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:57.320 cut it and the restructuring? You know, how have they 0:18:57.359 --> 0:19:00.320 made any kind of extra progress on this very big, 0:19:00.680 --> 0:19:01.800 very significantly structuring. 0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:03.120 They have to do well in. 0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:06.639 Terms of the buyback, paying out dividends. That is always 0:19:06.680 --> 0:19:10.040 a very important component in the London market, isn't it. 0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:11.879 What are we expecting around that? 0:19:12.880 --> 0:19:17.520 We saw declining profits for the other oil companies and 0:19:18.480 --> 0:19:22.000 BP's training update wasn't too bad, So I would have 0:19:22.040 --> 0:19:24.800 thought that they'll keep it, keep the buybacks and there 0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:28.840 won't be too much alarm on that front. So yeah, 0:19:28.880 --> 0:19:31.720 I wouldn't be you know, I think that the expectation 0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:33.000 is that that won't be. 0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:39.040 Changing in terms of also the sustainability issues for BP. 0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:41.960 So they're in the middle of reversing what was a 0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:46.480 pivot to sustainability. How does that compare to what other 0:19:46.600 --> 0:19:53.040 oil companies are doing and fossil fuel production now, I 0:19:53.119 --> 0:19:53.480 think I. 0:19:53.400 --> 0:19:59.240 Think there's a general is not singular, there's not one theme, 0:19:59.359 --> 0:20:01.920 but I think there is a move to kind of 0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:07.399 be less engaged with renewables and things like that, and 0:20:07.640 --> 0:20:11.200 an emphasis on hydrocarbons. If you look at how the 0:20:11.320 --> 0:20:13.800 US oil companies that have never been quite so kind 0:20:13.840 --> 0:20:18.880 of wedded to kind of environmental sustainability type of stuff. 0:20:19.600 --> 0:20:22.280 You know, they've done better and they've been more focused 0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:25.280 on what they always were and I think you've seen 0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:28.199 a pivot back towards that. But it's not universal. You know, 0:20:30.320 --> 0:20:34.600 there are oil companies that have kind of stuck stuck 0:20:34.640 --> 0:20:36.960 to it more. But you know, we've seen moves out 0:20:36.960 --> 0:20:41.359 of green hydrogen. BP is a big Australia project, so 0:20:41.640 --> 0:20:44.199 you know there's a lot going on in terms of 0:20:44.240 --> 0:20:46.240 moving away from it and moving back to a focus 0:20:46.320 --> 0:20:47.639 on oil and gas. 0:20:48.800 --> 0:20:54.520 In terms of activist management, Sam BP shareholder's Elliott Investment Management, 0:20:54.920 --> 0:20:58.200 they are so called activists investors, aren't they And they 0:20:58.240 --> 0:21:02.720 certainly have made a number umber of statements around BP 0:21:02.840 --> 0:21:05.560 and what they'd like the business to look like. How 0:21:05.600 --> 0:21:07.840 do you think that relationship is and how does it 0:21:07.880 --> 0:21:11.480 fit into kind of US activist investment in the UK 0:21:11.560 --> 0:21:12.040 and Europe. 0:21:12.359 --> 0:21:15.439 Well, I think with the BP in particular. So you know, 0:21:15.600 --> 0:21:17.199 as I was just talking about, you know a lot 0:21:17.240 --> 0:21:19.919 of companies are still staying in that renewable space and 0:21:19.960 --> 0:21:22.199 one of the big things that was pushed for for 0:21:22.440 --> 0:21:25.800 at BP and by Elliott in particular, is moving back 0:21:25.840 --> 0:21:29.560 over to these the hydrocarbs, the fossil fuels, because in 0:21:29.600 --> 0:21:32.199 part of the valuation on the stock, you know, BP's 0:21:32.280 --> 0:21:34.800 evaluation and their shares have done extremely poorly, you know, 0:21:34.840 --> 0:21:36.520 against a lot of the other majors over the last 0:21:36.520 --> 0:21:39.600 couple of years. I think that's a major part of it. 0:21:39.640 --> 0:21:41.920 But what they need to be able to do over 0:21:41.960 --> 0:21:44.639 the course of you know, the whole restructuring process that 0:21:44.680 --> 0:21:48.520 they're going through, is balance that with decent operations and 0:21:48.560 --> 0:21:51.640 then with you know, pulling away from the new renewable 0:21:51.680 --> 0:21:53.639 side of things, but balancing those two things out. Other 0:21:53.680 --> 0:21:55.239 companies have just done that a little bit better than 0:21:55.280 --> 0:21:58.080 BP have, I think for the results, I think what 0:21:58.119 --> 0:22:00.760 you're likely to see is if there's an in honesty, 0:22:00.800 --> 0:22:03.480 there's not probably going to be an enormous amount of 0:22:03.520 --> 0:22:07.200 extra progress made, you know what we'll see. But what 0:22:07.320 --> 0:22:10.040