1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,600 Speaker 1: If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart in 2 00:00:03,640 --> 00:00:07,360 Speaker 1: a conflict where they were getting hammered over Lebanon, which 3 00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: has nothing to do with them, and which the United 4 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: States never once said was part of the ceasefire, that's 5 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:14,080 Speaker 1: ultimately their choice. 6 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 2: We think that would be dumb, but that's their choice. 7 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 3: The dizzying situation in the golf and straysa hor mooz 8 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 3: the US, Iran, Israel, Lebanon and all the players. Let's 9 00:00:25,880 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 3: dive right into it with military analyst Mike Lyons. Mike, welcome, 10 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:30,160 Speaker 3: how are you today? 11 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:31,920 Speaker 4: And Jo Great to be back with you. 12 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 2: Great, always good to have you. 13 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:37,080 Speaker 3: So, you know, I think both of us have probably 14 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 3: read about studied various peace agreements through history and how 15 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 3: some of them were a bit rocky, or you know, 16 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:47,480 Speaker 3: there are hidden elements that the layman didn't learn about 17 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 3: until many years later. But I don't recall anything as 18 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:53,200 Speaker 3: wobbly and complicated as this in recent memory. 19 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, I've never seen sides so far apart. I mean, 20 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:00,280 Speaker 4: I guess the fifteen points on our side is the 21 00:01:00,360 --> 00:01:03,920 Speaker 4: ten on their side. They are the most maximalist demands 22 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:08,880 Speaker 4: you've ever seen coming from Iran or from really any country, 23 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 4: basically saying that they could do whatever they want whenever 24 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 4: they want to do it, and they'll do whatever they 25 00:01:13,160 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 4: want to another country whenever they want to do it 26 00:01:14,880 --> 00:01:17,760 Speaker 4: to them too. So I don't know where this will start, 27 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 4: you know. Trump, I think originally the beginning of the 28 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 4: week with a lot of his tweets and comments where 29 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:26,119 Speaker 4: he's just trying to out crazy the crazy people on 30 00:01:26,160 --> 00:01:29,400 Speaker 4: some level talking to the Iranians and language they understand. 31 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 4: I'm just not sure they understand any language. I'm just 32 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:34,120 Speaker 4: not sure this is going to go anywhere. They just 33 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:37,640 Speaker 4: don't have a history of negotiating anything, any you know, 34 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 4: giving in on anything on whatsoever. I think the Obama 35 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 4: administration was completely you know, taken to the woodshed by 36 00:01:43,200 --> 00:01:45,919 Speaker 4: these guys, and they're going to try. We'll see what happens. 37 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 3: So is that line of thought leading to the conclusion 38 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 3: that the only thing we can do is so reduce 39 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 3: their capabilities that the intransigent maniacs that run around just 40 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 3: won't be as dangerous. 41 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's really where we're We're back to 42 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 4: a containment foreign policy. If we can't you get some 43 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:07,280 Speaker 4: kind of resolution within the next fourteen days, I don't 44 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 4: think it's going to take fourteen days. I think we're 45 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 4: going to draw this conclusion that they're not going to 46 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:15,919 Speaker 4: give in on anything before that. The Vice President's comment 47 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 4: about this being linked to Hesbela is exactly the point. 48 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,799 Speaker 4: I mean, Israel has its own security concerns, and you 49 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:23,519 Speaker 4: know the fact that the country with nine million people 50 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 4: still punching up against the country with ninety million and 51 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 4: doing pretty well. You know, there's a lot of other 52 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 4: potential solutions there. The French could get involved with Lebanon 53 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 4: and help the Lebanese government disarm Hesbela. 54 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 2: That's there. 55 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:37,519 Speaker 4: I mean, think about Hesbela. It's kind of like a 56 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 4: cancer or kind of you know that that infected US 57 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 4: country for so many years and the civilians and the 58 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 4: government does nothing about it. Well, if the French, which 59 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 4: was what, you know, their influence was there, if they'd 60 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 4: like to get in the game, they could possibly help 61 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 4: the Lebanese government do that. Hes blow has never been 62 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 4: any weaker. But they don't have the military, They don't 63 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 4: really choose to do anything. They just continue to send 64 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 4: virtual signaling statements from Paris and and hope the United 65 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 4: States continues to get the job done. 66 00:03:03,919 --> 00:03:04,119 Speaker 2: Yeah. 67 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 3: I saw the quote from Norman Schwartzkop recently that I 68 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 3: love that going into battle without the French is like 69 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 3: going hunting without an accordion. 70 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know he yeah, you know again, these countries, 71 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:21,079 Speaker 4: their perception of their strength and reality versus the actual 72 00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:23,120 Speaker 4: reality of it real politique is just you know again 73 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:25,679 Speaker 4: the Grand Canyon. It's is why is this un or 74 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:29,000 Speaker 4: on debate right now? And so in the UK is 75 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 4: the same way. I mean, there's there's going to be 76 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 4: real consequences over their actions within the NATO alliance. You know, 77 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 4: that NATO Alliance is not going away. I think that's 78 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 4: it's going to be strong to have. But their again, 79 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 4: their perception of their reality and their actual strength, that 80 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 4: remains to be seen. Look, the French have nuclear weapons though, 81 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 4: that's the other thing to this. I mean, so they 82 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 4: can decide to maybe back off and that men then 83 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 4: control Spain. But the Germans don't. The Germans we don't 84 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 4: want them to have nuclear weapons. We don't. You know, 85 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 4: there's there's other's issues about that nuclear non proliferation that 86 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:01,240 Speaker 4: we want to keep and that's one of the things 87 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 4: that ties NATO together. 88 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:05,119 Speaker 3: Yeah, I was going to feature a little bit later 89 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 3: on the show, an absolutely terrific piece of writing I 90 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 3: came across by a woman who's an author and commentator 91 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 3: and thinker on this sort of issue. And the piece 92 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 3: is entitled why the West won't call this a Holy war? 93 00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 3: And I'm thinking about Hesbola in Lebanon, which if people 94 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 3: aren't familiar, it's it's a heavily armed political party that's 95 00:04:25,080 --> 00:04:28,599 Speaker 3: also an army. If you can picture the insanity that 96 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 3: Israel quote unquote coming to an agreement and a peace 97 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 3: agreement with Hesbela at this point, that just that's fantasy land, 98 00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 3: isn't it, especially from the Israeli perspective. 99 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:44,839 Speaker 4: Exactly this is not you know, the ira that years 100 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 4: ago decided to put its arms down to become part 101 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,800 Speaker 4: of the political process, joined the current government there and 102 00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 4: had a representative and the like. But this is not 103 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,559 Speaker 4: This is this is a fight for survival on their side. 104 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 4: This is die to the death. 105 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:56,680 Speaker 2: This is there. 106 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 4: This is how they operate, and it's you know, SIMI 107 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,119 Speaker 4: wonder what happened in the Second World War in terms 108 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 4: of how how badly you know, those countries at the 109 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:08,279 Speaker 4: time looked Japan. Japan had a tremendous tactical victory in 110 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 4: December seventh, but look where that ended up leading to. 111 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 4: It ended up being to the fundamental demise of their 112 00:05:13,040 --> 00:05:15,920 Speaker 4: country back back then. And I think that's the same 113 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 4: historical analogy taking place right now. The Arab nation or 114 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 4: the you know, the terrorist organizations has Blahamas and Iran 115 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:26,800 Speaker 4: has this great tactical victory on October seventh, few years back, 116 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 4: but it's going to lead to their downfall for sure. 117 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 3: I certainly hope it does. More on that to come. 118 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 3: We're talking to military analysts and Mike Lions. So Mike, 119 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 3: let's say get down to brass tacks. Is there any 120 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:42,000 Speaker 3: opening the straits of or moves without the consent of 121 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 3: whoever is running Iran? 122 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 4: Doesn't look like it looks like the IRGC still controls 123 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 4: it because the threat is still coming from a military perspective. 124 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 4: It's those coastline batteries that they could potentially fire on 125 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:57,360 Speaker 4: a container vessel or a ship that's going there, and 126 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:01,040 Speaker 4: ballistic missiles. There's still minds there. We could we could 127 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:03,560 Speaker 4: use the help of the British and other NATO countries 128 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 4: that have some capability with some of their mind sweeping 129 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 4: and then also some of the asymmetrical fast boating that 130 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:11,600 Speaker 4: takes place, and so no insurance company is still going 131 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:14,160 Speaker 4: to get involved right now. So I think I think 132 00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:16,720 Speaker 4: the next military mission is going to be looking for 133 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:21,480 Speaker 4: the Navy to really force that issue and protect carriers 134 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 4: and protect protect the container ships going through there. You're 135 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:28,480 Speaker 4: going to see possibly a step up escort mission. I 136 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 4: know the Navy's been hesitant to do that from I sources, 137 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 4: but I think that's what the President's going to ask 138 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 4: the Navy soon to do. 139 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:35,360 Speaker 2: Wow. 140 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 3: Interesting, Okay, let's change topics completely. Another really interesting piece 141 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:43,360 Speaker 3: of journalism I came across was a gal whose name 142 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:46,039 Speaker 3: I don't recall, but she was embedded with the NATO 143 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:49,040 Speaker 3: troops as they were doing drone training in Estonia. 144 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 2: I think it was last week. 145 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:55,679 Speaker 3: And that's obviously a fascinating topic, and it was David 146 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,640 Speaker 3: Petraeus was over there at least commenting on it, and 147 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 3: he said, look, you need to understand this is changing 148 00:07:01,440 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 3: the face of warfare completely. How do you think we're 149 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,280 Speaker 3: doing on that learning curve the United States and our allies. 150 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 4: Well, we're hanging on to it. We're watching closely and 151 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:14,080 Speaker 4: we try to import some of that technology into what 152 00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 4: we're doing. I mean, you saw, for example, the fact 153 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 4: that we're locating this pilot using some heart murmer technology 154 00:07:19,960 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 4: that can pick him out, you know, forty miles away 155 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 4: based on AI. 156 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 2: So so what's that, right? I hadn't heard that. Yeah, 157 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:27,680 Speaker 2: asks more about that. 158 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 4: Yeah. So I mean again, with these kinds of conflicts, 159 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 4: all this technology comes off the shelf, and this this 160 00:07:33,560 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 4: technology was able to find him, help locate him using 161 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 4: AI by his heart rate, by his heart murmer, and 162 00:07:39,440 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 4: so yeah, I mean so again this and so now 163 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 4: bring that same mentality Ukraine. He gets up every day 164 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 4: and figures out how it's going to survive. So they 165 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:49,600 Speaker 4: have to figure out how to close the kill chain 166 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:52,080 Speaker 4: right this time and distance between when they know there's 167 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 4: a target and when they can kill the target. And 168 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 4: what they've done is just phenomenal of their industrial military 169 00:07:56,880 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 4: complex in terms of building the drone technology, software, the 170 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 4: implement in it, and then once it faces off to 171 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 4: the enemy and they see the reaction to it, changing 172 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 4: the software so it becomes more survivable. Ukraine has been 173 00:08:10,480 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 4: incredible in terms of that killed chain from a military's perspective, 174 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 4: in helping them survive and it's definitely the future of warfare. 175 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 3: And you would know this a lot better than I would. 176 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:23,840 Speaker 3: I've told the procurement process has in the past been well, 177 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 3: it can make a person insane, whereas now it's got 178 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 3: to be if I need a certain drill bit, I 179 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:31,800 Speaker 3: run to the store. I've got that drill bit in 180 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 3: twenty minutes. Now that's not practical. But what about that 181 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 3: topic and how we need to change our procurement. 182 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 4: Give you a shameless self promotion. A couple of months ago, 183 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 4: I wrote an article for Real Clear Defense on the 184 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:46,800 Speaker 4: new systems, the new playbook in order to succeed in 185 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 4: doing that if you're a startup innovative company, because Pete 186 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:52,480 Speaker 4: Hexad has changed that. He's changed the entire process of 187 00:08:52,520 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 4: how you can bring this lethality to the war fighters. 188 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 4: And it's all about taking things commercially off the shelf 189 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 4: and getting them quickly to the hands of the war fighters. 190 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:06,040 Speaker 4: Innovation centers like Softworks in Tampa, Florida, working with special operators, 191 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 4: and again shrinking that that this this distance in time 192 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 4: between when when they need something and then well actually 193 00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:16,199 Speaker 4: shows up on the battlefield. So I'd urge your yeah listeners, 194 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 4: to go take a look at that article. If if 195 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:20,440 Speaker 4: they're doing an inter innovative startup company and help them 196 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:23,320 Speaker 4: to get to get to do government work, because that's 197 00:09:23,320 --> 00:09:25,240 Speaker 4: what this this is all about. They're trying to break 198 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 4: that cycle of these long acquisitions. It's called the value 199 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:30,080 Speaker 4: of death when you have a good idea and it 200 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 4: dies in between what you get funding for it. This 201 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:35,319 Speaker 4: this Trump administration is trying to do that, and I 202 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 4: think that's a that's a really good move. 203 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:37,200 Speaker 2: Yeah. 204 00:09:37,240 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 3: Interestingly enough, my brother is in that very line of work. Uh, Mike, 205 00:09:40,640 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 3: send us a link to that article. Why don't we 206 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 3: we post it so everybody can can flock to it 207 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:45,680 Speaker 3: and read it. 208 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:48,520 Speaker 4: Be sure we'll do that a little alter Yeah for sure. 209 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, Okay, Military analyst Mike Lions Mike, As always, we 210 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,320 Speaker 3: appreciate the thoughts and the wisdom. Great to talk to you, 211 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:55,000 Speaker 3: and have a good weekend. 212 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 2: Thanks to you. 213 00:09:55,960 --> 00:09:57,200 Speaker 4: Sure you have a great one, all. 214 00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 2: Right, thanks? Thanks? Uh yeah, where this goes? Nobody knows 215 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 2: it is. 216 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 3: Maybe I lack imagination, but I'm using my feeble brain 217 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 3: power such as it is, to try to figure out 218 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 3: how we get from this side is on is saying 219 00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 3: these things and demanding these things, and this side is, 220 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:16,880 Speaker 3: you know, got its own set of demands and they 221 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 3: are utterly incompatible. The Iranian regime is completely intransigent. They're 222 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 3: either religious fanatics or dead enders because they will be, 223 00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:30,240 Speaker 3: as Jack likes to put it, hung upside down in 224 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 3: the town square, as the end of their days if 225 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 3: they don't hold onto power. There's no there's gonna be 226 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 3: no saying, hey, I said some harsh things. You said 227 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:46,319 Speaker 3: some harsh things. I tortured dissidents. You know, we all 228 00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 3: make mistakes. You can have power now. No, these people 229 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 3: are going to be killed, so they are dead enders.