1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. 3 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 2: Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 4 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moven news. 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,279 Speaker 1: I'm the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever 6 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. 7 00:00:20,880 --> 00:00:23,880 Speaker 1: All right, here's a cool roundtable here. Yesterday was a 8 00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:26,280 Speaker 1: crazy day in the world of cable news. Don Lemon 9 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 1: from CNN gone, Tucker Carlson from Fox gone. 10 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:33,080 Speaker 2: What does this mean for the business? 11 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:37,239 Speaker 1: NBCUniversal Dave Yeah, Shell, mister Shell gone, So crazy day 12 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 1: in the world of media. What does it mean for 13 00:00:38,720 --> 00:00:41,440 Speaker 1: the politics as we head into the next election cycle? 14 00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 1: What does it mean for the business? We have a 15 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:45,879 Speaker 1: cool round table here. Wendy Schuller, Brown University professor. She 16 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 1: joins us here, as does Mark Douglas, CEO of Mountain 17 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:52,920 Speaker 1: Let's start with you, Wendy. I mean, really, with the 18 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:56,240 Speaker 1: Tucker Carlson thing, how does that impact the calculus I 19 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 1: guess of the messaging if nothing else, of the Republican 20 00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 1: and maybe Donald Trump and some of the others. 21 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:06,319 Speaker 3: I think It's really interesting to see how the momentum 22 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:08,679 Speaker 3: will shift or not shift. You know, we saw Fox 23 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 3: to really kind of almost virtually dump Donald Trump and 24 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 3: start really promoting Dusantis and Tucker Carlson sort of stuck 25 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 3: with Trump in some ways, right, he wasn't really willing 26 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 3: to go there, and that was a mouthpiece for Trump. 27 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 3: And now we see Dave Santis kind of endenduring some doubts, 28 00:01:24,280 --> 00:01:27,040 Speaker 3: maybe faltering a little bit, hasn't really hasn't jumped in yet, 29 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 3: and he's gone pretty far right on the social agenda, 30 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,720 Speaker 3: which I think making some Republicans a little nervous about electability. 31 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 3: And so now what does Fox do. You've lost your 32 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 3: mouthpiece for Trump. You were all in on Defantis, but 33 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:40,200 Speaker 3: now you've got doubts. So I think this is really 34 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 3: important for the Publican party. They used Fox to consolidate 35 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 3: their message, put pressure on members in the Congress and 36 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 3: state legislature just to go along with whoever they decide 37 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 3: they want to anoint. And now it's unclear you know who's. 38 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 2: Going to be the anoint the yeah, And I mean 39 00:01:55,000 --> 00:01:57,920 Speaker 2: you're the expert on this. Mark Douglass over at Mountain 40 00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:05,640 Speaker 2: helps companies to drive, you know, marketing dollars and raise revenue, 41 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 2: but you focus on the politics, Wendy. So before I 42 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 2: get to Mark, you know, you teach the American Presidency 43 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:14,679 Speaker 2: at Brown, Introduction to the American Political Process, Congress, and 44 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 2: public Policy. Does Tucker Carlson have a future in some 45 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:21,079 Speaker 2: of those institutions that you're teaching about, because it seems 46 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:23,640 Speaker 2: to me he has a huge following and he can 47 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 2: raise a lot of money, you know, with this sort 48 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 2: of angry base that he has, and it's like a 49 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:32,359 Speaker 2: huge part of America. 50 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:36,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, you're raising a fantastic point. He's I think I 51 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 3: was fifty three years old and yesterday I said to 52 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:43,080 Speaker 3: my students, you know, I've seen new gingrids come and 53 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 3: go and come and go and come and go, and 54 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:48,919 Speaker 3: it's never really gone. And I have absolutely no doubt 55 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 3: that we will see Tucker Carlson again. The question is 56 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 3: does he become Steve Bannon to the next candidate? Does 57 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 3: he go work with Trump? You know, there are a 58 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 3: lot of things that we can see him re emerging 59 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:02,560 Speaker 3: to you and I think, you know his demise would 60 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 3: be premature. 61 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 2: I mean, Senate, does he primary Trump? I feel like 62 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 2: there's a lot more that he could do than you know, 63 00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:12,799 Speaker 2: the eighty year old former president Mark Let me get 64 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 2: to you on the business side of things. Does this 65 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:18,799 Speaker 2: hurt Fox at all? Tucker Carlson leaving, he has three 66 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:21,840 Speaker 2: point four million viewers. Are they there for him or are 67 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:23,079 Speaker 2: they there for the time slot? 68 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 4: Yeah? I think Tucker is a brand, and I think 69 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:31,560 Speaker 4: we're going to learn very quickly that brands have a 70 00:03:31,639 --> 00:03:35,400 Speaker 4: lot of choices right now, and that Fox's brand is 71 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 4: not as strong. So if you look at someone that 72 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 4: the choices that someone like Tucker has is they can 73 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 4: go to other platforms. Daily Wire, you know, one that 74 00:03:44,680 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 4: their contracts was released. They offered Steven Crowder, who is 75 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 4: someone you may not even even heard of, has nowhere 76 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:54,000 Speaker 4: near the following a Tucker Carlson. They are from fifty 77 00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 4: million dollars to be on Daily Wire, and so the 78 00:03:57,480 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 4: numbers you look at the plus looking at Tucker to 79 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 4: get equity. I don't see Tucker becoming a political force 80 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 4: in the sense of he goes off and creates something. 81 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:11,400 Speaker 4: I think there's huge media dollars out there for stars 82 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:15,320 Speaker 4: like Tucker, and also the audience he has, he needs 83 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 4: to carry it someplace really soon. And I think you're 84 00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 4: looking at a deal that's on a level with a 85 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 4: Joe Rogan. 86 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 2: You know. 87 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 4: One of the other points on that is Tucker had 88 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 4: average three point three million viewers a day. Ben Shapiro 89 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 4: has eleven million a day, right, Joe Rogan has eleven 90 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:34,200 Speaker 4: to twelve million a day. They have much much bigger 91 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 4: audiences off of networks like Fox than they do on Fox. 92 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:40,479 Speaker 4: And so I think Tucker is just going to go 93 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:42,400 Speaker 4: where the money leads them. Their money's going to lead 94 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:46,160 Speaker 4: them onto YouTube, on the podcast and where you're talking 95 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:49,480 Speaker 4: fifty one hundred million dollar deals plus equity in the company. 96 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:52,839 Speaker 2: But they're very different, right, I mean Joe Rogan, although 97 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:56,840 Speaker 2: he's out there, he's more of your open minded draw 98 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 2: Ben Sjapiro, he's more of your sort of witty educated draw. 99 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 2: Tucker Carlson. He has the ability to spread wacko conspiracy theories, 100 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:13,120 Speaker 2: spread fear, and spread hatred. Can you get someone else 101 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 2: that does that for Fox? The probably not? 102 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 4: I mean replacing the most highly rated show on news. 103 00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 4: I mean it's a tall order. The advertisers they have 104 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 4: are not the premium advertisers because they if you look 105 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:30,960 Speaker 4: at Mountain, like we have a feature where you can 106 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:34,039 Speaker 4: just block their networks that you don't want to advertise 107 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 4: on on TV, and the number one block networks are CNN, 108 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:38,640 Speaker 4: Box and MSNBC. 109 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 5: So they don't. 110 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:43,719 Speaker 4: Get the premium advertisers. So as long as they can 111 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:47,160 Speaker 4: bill the number of viewers, they won't lose ad dollars. 112 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 4: But you know, matching Tucker in terms of nightly viewership, 113 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:53,000 Speaker 4: that's not going to be easy. And there's not a 114 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 4: lot of There's not a lot of people to choose from. 115 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:58,719 Speaker 4: It's not like Tucker was a huge star before he 116 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:02,839 Speaker 4: arrived at Box for me, he was known to build 117 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:04,000 Speaker 4: that Yeah, exactly. 118 00:06:04,120 --> 00:06:07,479 Speaker 1: Okay, Hey, Wendy, President Biden just announced his reelection. Any 119 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:10,320 Speaker 1: what's your takeaway on that announcement and maybe more to 120 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 1: the point, how he announced it would just kind of 121 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:13,480 Speaker 1: drop in a video. 122 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 3: Well, and you know, I guess it's really close to 123 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 3: her exactly the same day that he announced, you know, 124 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:21,320 Speaker 3: four years ago, so I think there was some continuity there. 125 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 3: Two things. One is I think that it forces the Democrats, 126 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 3: now this is a big if to consolidate their messaging early. 127 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 3: You know, he's running, he's the leader of the party. 128 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:33,039 Speaker 3: You know, you're going to run or lose on the 129 00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 3: success of the Biden administration, and that's going to force 130 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 3: the Democrats, with very tough Senate race looking in twenty 131 00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:41,279 Speaker 3: twenty four, to consolidate. And that's going to be, in 132 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:43,479 Speaker 3: the end of the day, helpful for fundraising. In other words, 133 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 3: we're all on the same team. We got a fundraise. 134 00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 3: Plus it's the beginning of a new fundraising quarter, so 135 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:50,800 Speaker 3: you know, the numbers will look better for him at 136 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:53,159 Speaker 3: the end of this quarter if he starts earlier. And 137 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:55,520 Speaker 3: I just really think this is about consolidating because you 138 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 3: have to really take advantage of what looks to be disarray, 139 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 3: both in the Republican Party in terms they're not, but 140 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:03,039 Speaker 3: also in the messaging machine of the Republican Party. I 141 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 3: would circle back on Tucker though, you know, he's young 142 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:07,800 Speaker 3: enough and he's come pretty close to the sort of 143 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:10,119 Speaker 3: center of power, which is the White House. I would 144 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:12,040 Speaker 3: not count him out. Maybe he makes a lot of 145 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 3: money in the interim, but I would not count him 146 00:07:13,880 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 3: out as running for a Senate seat in a safe 147 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 3: Republican state somewhere and then launching for president. 148 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 5: All right, interesting stuff. 149 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 1: It was a crazy day yesterday with all the news 150 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:23,080 Speaker 1: coming out of the media space. 151 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 5: So it was a great, cool little round. 152 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 2: Dame, and then President Biden sneaks out, sneaks that little 153 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:31,240 Speaker 2: re election video in the middle of a giant Fox 154 00:07:31,320 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 2: News Tucker Carlson, you know, media dates just unbelievable. 155 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 5: It is odd, odd odd makes for good news though. 156 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 1: Wendy Schillebrown University, Mark Douglas, CEO of Mountain joining us, 157 00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:44,920 Speaker 1: talking except talking us about the politics of cable television. 158 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 6: You're listening to the teenth Kenserline program Bloomberg Markets weekdays 159 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 6: at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, 160 00:07:54,480 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 6: and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on demand wherever 161 00:07:57,400 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 6: you get your podcast. 162 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 1: We're just getting into the real teeth of this first 163 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 1: quarter earnings season. Want to get a sense of kind 164 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 1: of how some of the pros are approaching it. Randy Frederick, 165 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 1: Managing director of Trading Derivatives at de Schwab Center for 166 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:15,720 Speaker 1: Financial Results, that joins us on the phone. Randy, again, 167 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: we're just starting to get into some of the meat 168 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 1: of this earning season. 169 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 2: Here. 170 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 1: We've already got the banks, and now we're starting to 171 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 1: get some of the industrials and consumer names. Any takeaways 172 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 1: you have here, what are you looking for, what are 173 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:28,080 Speaker 1: some of your clients looking for? 174 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:28,880 Speaker 5: How are you approaching it? 175 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 7: Well, to be quite honest with you, earning season so 176 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 7: far has actually been quite good. It's been better than expectations. 177 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 7: Now that may very well be simply because the bar 178 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 7: was set substantially lower, but it's actually been pretty good. Yes, 179 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:44,439 Speaker 7: earnings per share growth is actually negative two point eight 180 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 7: percent so far, and we're about twenty four percent of 181 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 7: the way through the S and P five hundred at 182 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 7: this point. But the expectation was for to be down 183 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:53,840 Speaker 7: about six and a half percent on a revenue basis 184 00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 7: same thing. We're up about five point seven percent so far, 185 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 7: but the expectations was that we're that earnings would only 186 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:03,240 Speaker 7: be up one point nine percent. So no matter how 187 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 7: you look at it, it's better than expected. And if 188 00:09:05,520 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 7: you look at the beat rates, in other words, how 189 00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:10,199 Speaker 7: many companies did better on earnings or better on revenue, 190 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 7: same story, You've got better percentages in both cases than 191 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,000 Speaker 7: the prior quarter. So it's been pretty good so far, 192 00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:17,920 Speaker 7: and I think that's part of the reason why the 193 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:19,880 Speaker 7: market has held up reasonably well. 194 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 2: I think Randy Matt Miller here in the studio. Listen, 195 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 2: you are expecting intraweek volatility because of all of these 196 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 2: these earnings, and we saw a slew of them today. 197 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 2: We're going to pick up tomorrow and then end the 198 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:38,839 Speaker 2: week with some macro data. But I wonder how you 199 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:44,719 Speaker 2: measure volatility, especially as the director managing director of trading derivatives. 200 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 2: Do you still look at the VIX? Are you excited 201 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 2: for VIX one D? Do you watch zero days two 202 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:56,080 Speaker 2: expiry options? How does it pro like you measure volatility? 203 00:09:56,920 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 7: So the answer is yes, I still watch the VIX 204 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 7: a lot. The VIX has been around since ninety three, 205 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:03,560 Speaker 7: so it's got a very long track record. There are 206 00:10:03,600 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 7: a number of other VIX related items that have been introduced, 207 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 7: and VIX one D is just the most recent, and 208 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:14,760 Speaker 7: it will be not necessarily a replacement for the VIX, 209 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 7: but instead it will actually complement it. There are a 210 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 7: bunch of different volatility related indicators that have been out 211 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 7: there for quite a while. And you know, I think 212 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 7: that when people say, oh, the VIX is broken or 213 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 7: the VIX isn't working right, what they're not realizing is 214 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 7: the VIX isn't broken. It's doing what it was intended 215 00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 7: to do. The purpose of the VIX was to measure 216 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 7: volatility thirty days into the future, and so of course 217 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 7: it doesn't necessarily reflect what's going on in the very 218 00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 7: very near term. That was never its intent. We have 219 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:43,840 Speaker 7: a whole bunch of other gages. We've got the VIX 220 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:46,760 Speaker 7: three months, We've got the VIN, the v I X, 221 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:50,440 Speaker 7: the VIX nine day. All of these were introduced much 222 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 7: later than the VIX to give people a look into 223 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:55,719 Speaker 7: parts of the market that they were not seeing from 224 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:57,760 Speaker 7: the VIX. It doesn't mean the VIX isn't working. It's 225 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 7: just that people are looking for shorter term So frankly, 226 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 7: it's a logical move by the CBOE to introduce this 227 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:04,920 Speaker 7: new gauge. 228 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:09,480 Speaker 2: Well, we have seen a super tight trading range. I 229 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 2: mean today we're breaking out of a little bit on 230 00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 2: the S and P, but we're on track for the 231 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 2: tightest trading range in a month since twenty seventeen. What 232 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:21,199 Speaker 2: do you expect really. 233 00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 5: Moves us out of that? 234 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 2: Last week? I thought the options expired on Friday was 235 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 2: going to be awesome and then it turned out to 236 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:27,479 Speaker 2: be such a disappointment. 237 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:30,760 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think the zero data trading, zero data expiration 238 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:32,960 Speaker 7: options thing is getting a bit overblown and people are 239 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,440 Speaker 7: paying a little bit too much attention to it. Keep 240 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 7: in mind, you've always had zero data expiration options. It's 241 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,480 Speaker 7: just that originally they were only on the third Friday 242 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 7: of the month. Then later we added weeklies, and so 243 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:46,400 Speaker 7: now you had them every Friday, and now on a 244 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:50,040 Speaker 7: handful not a large number, but a relatively handful of names, 245 00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:53,720 Speaker 7: you have options that expire every day. So that ability 246 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:56,840 Speaker 7: has always been there, it's just now they're more frequent. Yes, 247 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 7: there's a lot of activity on it if you take 248 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:01,040 Speaker 7: a look at it, but if you're talking about things 249 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 7: like a broad based index like the S and P 250 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 7: five hundred or the SPY which is tied to that, 251 00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:08,560 Speaker 7: those aren't like stocks that can drop twenty or thirty 252 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 7: percent in a day. If that happens, we're in big trouble. 253 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 7: And we know that that doesn't happen very often. I mean, 254 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:16,200 Speaker 7: it's been since nineteen eighty seven since we've had that 255 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 7: big of a move in an index like that. So 256 00:12:19,160 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 7: I think there's a little bit too much attention being 257 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 7: focused on this. It doesn't represent any more systemic risk 258 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 7: than when you had two expirations a week, or just 259 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:29,560 Speaker 7: one expiration a week, or even just a couple of months. 260 00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 7: So I don't think that's a big issue. But part 261 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:34,439 Speaker 7: of the reason that I am expecting volatility to increase 262 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 7: is because of what you just said. Last week, the 263 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 7: VICS index was at its year to date low, and 264 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:42,400 Speaker 7: it has been a very quiet market here. Very recently. 265 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 7: We've had it, like you said, you know, three out 266 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,280 Speaker 7: of the last five days, we've had actually four out 267 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 7: of the last five days, we've had the S and 268 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 7: P five hundred moved less than three points, which is 269 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 7: just a fraction. That's quite unusual, especially compared to what 270 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 7: we've seen earlier this year and of course last year 271 00:12:57,200 --> 00:12:57,840 Speaker 7: as well. 272 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:00,319 Speaker 1: Randy, when you're looking at this market here over the 273 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 1: next say, six to twelve months, what are kind of 274 00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 1: the things you need to be right on. Is it 275 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:07,680 Speaker 1: just the Fed, is it earnings? What are the things 276 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,080 Speaker 1: that you really need to have a strong conviction on. 277 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:13,720 Speaker 7: Well, all of those things have an impact. Obviously this week, specifically, 278 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:16,199 Speaker 7: we're going to get a GDP number here on Thursday. 279 00:13:16,880 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 7: People have been talking since last year that we would 280 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:20,839 Speaker 7: be in a recession at this year we're going to 281 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:25,000 Speaker 7: get a positive GDP number above two percent in all likelihood. 282 00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:27,439 Speaker 7: The ranges are between about two and two and a 283 00:13:27,480 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 7: half percent if we have them. If we're going to 284 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 7: have a recession this year, it didn't happen in Q one, 285 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:35,160 Speaker 7: and so far in Q two, it doesn't appear as 286 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 7: if things are going that far down the hole on Granted, 287 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 7: we're only a third of the way through, so we've 288 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:42,600 Speaker 7: got to keep an eye on GDP certainly, but even 289 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:45,319 Speaker 7: two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, at least in the 290 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 7: United States does not constitute a recession. In fact, we 291 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 7: had that in Q one and Q two of last year, 292 00:13:51,679 --> 00:13:54,960 Speaker 7: so we're going to need to see probably that plus 293 00:13:55,000 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 7: a significant deterioration in the labor market. So far, we've 294 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 7: seen a very minor uptick and weekly javas claims, which 295 00:14:01,320 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 7: is the more forward looking employment data. We haven't seen 296 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 7: anything negative in the monthly numbers, which we'll get a 297 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 7: good of course, on the first Friday of the subsequent month. 298 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:13,520 Speaker 7: That's kind of backward looking data. Earnings, of course, are 299 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:17,200 Speaker 7: obviously always important, and we're right now sort of ramping 300 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:19,200 Speaker 7: up into the thick part of earning season. I mean, 301 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:22,880 Speaker 7: we've got a lot of companies reporting earnings this week. 302 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 7: S and P five hundred, well over one hundred companies 303 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 7: due to announce this week so far, but the vast 304 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 7: majority of the ones that have already announced, which is 305 00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:32,400 Speaker 7: almost a third of them, have beaten expectations. So it's 306 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 7: again a pretty decent earning season. So we need to 307 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 7: see inflation continue to moderate. Based on both the CPI 308 00:14:39,240 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 7: and the PPI, inflation either peaked in June or September 309 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 7: of last year. Yes, prices are still going up, but 310 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:49,080 Speaker 7: they're going up at an ever decreasing rate. We're going 311 00:14:49,160 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 7: to get a pc number on Friday, which, of course, 312 00:14:51,120 --> 00:14:53,800 Speaker 7: as you know, is the FED favorite inflation engage, and 313 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:55,720 Speaker 7: all we really need from that one is to confirm 314 00:14:56,160 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 7: the slowing trend of price increases that we got from 315 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 7: both the c and the PPI, and. 316 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 2: We get the employment cost Index, which I think your 317 00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 2: own power looks closely. Yet, Randy, you have a job 318 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 2: in one of the most complicated areas of finance derivatives, right, 319 00:15:12,680 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 2: I mean, we can't even spell it. How do you 320 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 2: look at at options to tell you what's happening in 321 00:15:18,800 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 2: the market, Like, what do you think is the most 322 00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:22,840 Speaker 2: interesting play happening in your world. 323 00:15:22,960 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 7: Yeah. So, derivatives is a very very very large category, 324 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:29,320 Speaker 7: and it includes all sorts of esoteric, over the counter, 325 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 7: non standardized derivatives. I focus primarily on the options markets, 326 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:38,239 Speaker 7: the listed options markets, which are entirely fungible, multi exchanged, 327 00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 7: heavily regulated, standardized, and to a lesser extent, the futures markets. 328 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 7: So what I'm looking for when I'm focusing on the 329 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:48,400 Speaker 7: options markets is what I found many many years ago 330 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 7: my career now about thirty five years. I've found many 331 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:55,560 Speaker 7: years ago that when people have an opinion in the markets, 332 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 7: they tend to go to the derivatives' markets to express 333 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 7: that opinion first, not the equities markets. And the reason 334 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 7: for that is because there's leverage there. Now, you could 335 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:07,520 Speaker 7: say that's the tail wagging the dog, but in many respects, 336 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 7: that's exactly what happens. So I watch changes, I watch 337 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 7: trends in changes of put call racials, and there are 338 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 7: a lot of different put call racials. The ones that 339 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 7: are on indexes are act for a different purpose. They're 340 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:21,800 Speaker 7: used primarily for hedging, whereas in the equity and ETF 341 00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 7: markets it's more directional and I look at open interest 342 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:28,880 Speaker 7: changes in the put call racials, and that's more longer term, 343 00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:31,400 Speaker 7: and then of course things like volatility and a whole 344 00:16:31,480 --> 00:16:34,480 Speaker 7: variety of other things. And it's not as intuitive as 345 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 7: you might think. But if you can look at past patterns, 346 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 7: and I've got data that goes all the way back 347 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 7: twenty five or thirty years on a lot of this stuff, 348 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 7: and I can see looking for repeating patterns, and when 349 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 7: things start to look similar to what they have looked 350 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 7: in the past, they oftentimes tend to do the same things. 351 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 7: Like anything, it's not perfect, but if it's right two 352 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:53,000 Speaker 7: even two thirds of the time, you can you can 353 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 7: take action based on that. 354 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 2: I feel a little bit smarter now, I know. 355 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 5: And that's saying something Randy. 356 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 2: Adam listening. We got to get you to I'm in 357 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:01,680 Speaker 2: the studio and show us this data. 358 00:17:01,880 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 7: I have been there before and it's been a while, 359 00:17:03,600 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 7: but I'd be happy to come back. 360 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:05,840 Speaker 5: Are you based in Austin? 361 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:07,400 Speaker 7: I am yes, man. 362 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 5: Now, is that city just busting at the seams? Let's 363 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 5: be honest, it is. 364 00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 7: It absolutely is. It's like you know, the nation, the city, 365 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 7: national bird, or whatever you want to call it. Is 366 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 7: the crane like everywhere else, and all the roads are 367 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:19,879 Speaker 7: under construction, so it can be challenging. 368 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 2: Everything cranes everywhere. It looks like Berlin in the nineties. 369 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 2: I was there last week and I rode around for 370 00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:27,359 Speaker 2: a couple days. All right, right, scooter, yep, And it's true. 371 00:17:27,560 --> 00:17:29,359 Speaker 7: I've traveled all over. I travel all over. I was 372 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:32,439 Speaker 7: in southern California just last week, and it's like it everywhere. 373 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:34,920 Speaker 7: So you know that signs again the economy is doing 374 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:35,920 Speaker 7: really well. 375 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:37,800 Speaker 5: All right, Randy, thanks so much for joining us. Next 376 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 5: time you're in the big city. Let us know. We'll 377 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:41,480 Speaker 5: get you in here. We'll chat derivatives. 378 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:45,159 Speaker 1: Randy Frederick, Managing director Trading Derivatives at the Schwab Center 379 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 1: for Financial Research. 380 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,159 Speaker 5: That's pretty cool. I wont how many Schwab clients are 381 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 5: trading derivatives. 382 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 6: You're listening to the tape catch a line program Bloomberg 383 00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:57,439 Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 384 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 6: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app. 385 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:03,600 Speaker 6: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 386 00:18:03,600 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 6: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa, playing Bloomberg eleven 387 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:09,639 Speaker 6: thirty all right. 388 00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:12,680 Speaker 1: Everybody knows Matt's a gearhead. But I'm not as crazy 389 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 1: about cars. But I love aviation just everything about the 390 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 1: business in terms of making planes, flying planes, all that 391 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,680 Speaker 1: kind of stuff. I was destined to own a private jet, 392 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 1: but I don't. I don't know what happened along the way. Yeah, 393 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 1: I should be one of those people that has a 394 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,480 Speaker 1: private jet and jets all around. But something when skewed 395 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:30,119 Speaker 1: you do why on jets? 396 00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:33,560 Speaker 2: I do fly lunch, you know, commercial airliners and those 397 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 2: are pretty awesome also, especially if you lease them. 398 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:38,720 Speaker 1: Yes, and so let's talk about that whole business. We're 399 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:43,200 Speaker 1: joining once again by Ali ben Elmdani nailed it, CEO 400 00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:48,440 Speaker 1: of Al Aviation, who has extended us an invitation and 401 00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 1: open invitation to visit him in Marrakesh, which would be cool. 402 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 5: So I need to I need to talk to. 403 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 2: The powers that bag you will be in southern Spain 404 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 2: for the month of August. Really, that can just. 405 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:02,520 Speaker 5: Hire. That's what they do. That's what Europeans do. They 406 00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:03,280 Speaker 5: take a month off. 407 00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 1: That's not no anyway, Ali, thanks so much for joining 408 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 1: us here. Talk to us about just the aviation business 409 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,199 Speaker 1: in general. It seems like every flight igon is packed. 410 00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:16,879 Speaker 1: Talk to us about the aviation business. 411 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:19,160 Speaker 5: How is it? Where are we in terms of capacity? 412 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 5: What are you seeing in your business? 413 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 1: You're the one that leases jets to all of these 414 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:24,440 Speaker 1: big airlines around the world. 415 00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 8: Well, first of all, thank you for having me. There's 416 00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:29,280 Speaker 8: always the pleasure to be here. Look, it's amazing time 417 00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:31,920 Speaker 8: for viation. If you fly anyway, you can see that 418 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,560 Speaker 8: all the flights are fully packed. There's a big demand. 419 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 8: It's fully back to speed for domestic covel. So domestic 420 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 8: hovel world wide is back at full speed, and so 421 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:42,159 Speaker 8: national tourvel is about eighty percent. Because Asia is a 422 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:44,720 Speaker 8: little bit lacking, but the moment's Asia is going to 423 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 8: be back on is going to be full all over 424 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:48,359 Speaker 8: the weld. Last time, always here, I told you it 425 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:50,959 Speaker 8: would be very hard to get tickets for this summer, 426 00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,680 Speaker 8: and we see it now. All the airlines are going 427 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,200 Speaker 8: to make huge profits during the summer. We see it 428 00:19:56,280 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 8: already happening. Some of the airlines making losses on the 429 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:03,879 Speaker 8: first quarter due to labor costs and fuel costs. But 430 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:05,359 Speaker 8: we believe that this summer is going to be an 431 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:07,399 Speaker 8: amazing summer for all those airlines. So it's an amazing 432 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 8: time for aviation. It's an amazing time for airlines. And 433 00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:13,160 Speaker 8: the only maybe issue that we can look at is 434 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:15,800 Speaker 8: the supply chain for boring an ebers, so that gives 435 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:19,720 Speaker 8: a little bit of delay on the deliveris. And airlines 436 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,080 Speaker 8: need aircraft no more than any time before. 437 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 2: I mean, I wanted to ask about that. You guys 438 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:28,400 Speaker 2: are a global operation. You've got offices in New York, Dublin, 439 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:31,000 Speaker 2: Hong Kong. Do buy Casablanca? 440 00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:31,399 Speaker 8: Thank you? 441 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 2: It must be awesome. And I was thinking, probably the 442 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:38,399 Speaker 2: most difficult thing for you is to get a hold 443 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:41,719 Speaker 2: of planes, right because as soon as I'm sure as 444 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 2: soon as you can buy them, they're leased out. 445 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:45,959 Speaker 8: Yeah, most of them are. At least that's months in advance. 446 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 8: All the airlines are begging for planes for the summer. 447 00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:51,000 Speaker 8: We have no planes on the gund We'd love to 448 00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,520 Speaker 8: have planes on the ground. LISE rates are going higher 449 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 8: because of the demand and there's not enough supply. So 450 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 8: it's a very good time to be leasing aircrafts because 451 00:20:57,480 --> 00:20:59,880 Speaker 8: there's a big demand by all the airlines to operate them. 452 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:01,680 Speaker 1: All right, So I was on an impression, which I 453 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,560 Speaker 1: think was a mistaken impression that at the beginning of 454 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:06,680 Speaker 1: the pandemic. When the world shut down, the airlines literally 455 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: flew their airplanes to the desert in I don't know, 456 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 1: Arizona parked them there. Can we just go get those 457 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 1: and put them back in the air well. 458 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:16,959 Speaker 8: A lot of the airlines, of course, they park all 459 00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:20,879 Speaker 8: those planes in the south of Spain, France or in 460 00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,520 Speaker 8: the deserts here in the US. The issue is to 461 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 8: get back a plane into service and to make it 462 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:28,720 Speaker 8: air warty. That's a big issue. So you cannot just 463 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:31,240 Speaker 8: go and start like you start a car with new 464 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:33,879 Speaker 8: battery like. There's a lot of ages. There's lots of 465 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 8: air wardingness that you have to do to make sure 466 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 8: that aircraft can fly again. So some of them, of 467 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:41,399 Speaker 8: course are back into service, but some of them had 468 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:43,119 Speaker 8: to be part of us because you couldn't get them 469 00:21:43,160 --> 00:21:44,919 Speaker 8: back into service. There's two courses to put them back 470 00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 8: into service. 471 00:21:45,520 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 2: But so some of them just get scrapped and we 472 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 2: need a new supply from Bowing an airbus to replace that, of. 473 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,600 Speaker 8: Course, like on the Neo, on the Max. There's a 474 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,639 Speaker 8: big demand on the seven eighty seven and the eight 475 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:58,240 Speaker 8: fifty days big demand, so we need more supply of 476 00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:01,600 Speaker 8: course from Airbus and Boeing. They are doing the best. 477 00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:03,440 Speaker 8: It's not easy to make a plane, of course, they're 478 00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,920 Speaker 8: doing the best, the amazing companies, but the supply chain 479 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 8: issue that they have right now, and this song's only 480 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,119 Speaker 8: for aviation is worldwide, is a big issue that they 481 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 8: are having to face, and their manogenes I think amazing 482 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:13,320 Speaker 8: need for both of them. 483 00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,440 Speaker 2: We like the seven eighty seven and the eight three 484 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:18,880 Speaker 2: fifty yep a lot. Paul and I love it as passengers, 485 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 2: you know, because there are awesome wide body jets and 486 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,200 Speaker 2: you can get your own bedroom and stuff. 487 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:25,760 Speaker 5: But you like the. 488 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,199 Speaker 2: Narrow body aircraft right for your business purposes. You do 489 00:22:31,280 --> 00:22:33,760 Speaker 2: a lot more with like the A three twenty, don't you. 490 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:39,120 Speaker 8: Know, seven, because it's more liquid, you can't head them 491 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,680 Speaker 8: more easily. The precious pies, of course is one sid 492 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 8: of the parts of a white body. So there's more 493 00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:45,960 Speaker 8: demand of course for the now bodies. But the eight 494 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:47,520 Speaker 8: fifteen and seven eight seven we have few of them. 495 00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:49,879 Speaker 8: Noble fleets are amazing aircraft to have in the fleets 496 00:22:49,920 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 8: are there are very few efficients so those are aircraft 497 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:54,040 Speaker 8: that are needed by most of the operators. 498 00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 1: Of course, where's the aviation industry globally in terms of 499 00:22:58,200 --> 00:22:59,160 Speaker 1: supply of pilots. 500 00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 5: Is that still an issue. 501 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:02,480 Speaker 8: Yes, it'll be an issue for a while, but not 502 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 8: only pilots. Mechanics, everything around aviation is going to be 503 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 8: an issue for a while. A lots of them doing COVID, 504 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 8: you know, did the attire got laid off, so not 505 00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:13,000 Speaker 8: to get them back. It's very hard and there's a 506 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,440 Speaker 8: higher cost of labor. Of course, that's is unpacked for 507 00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:22,080 Speaker 8: both mechanics, engineers. Everything in the aviation employments is kind 508 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 8: of hard, like not get. 509 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:25,639 Speaker 2: I've also started a notice pricing going up, kind of 510 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 2: the first time in twenty years that I've seen airlines 511 00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:31,680 Speaker 2: with real pricing power. I mean now they can charge 512 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:36,280 Speaker 2: double or triple what they had previously gotten, you know, 513 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:40,119 Speaker 2: for even economy tickets. Does that continue? You think they 514 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 2: have it? We've already told us into the summer. But 515 00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,680 Speaker 2: are they able to hold and raise those prices even further. 516 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 8: As long as we don't have enough supply of aircups. Yes, 517 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 8: Because like if you fly anywhere like I flow yesterday, 518 00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:51,840 Speaker 8: if you fly anyone in the US or overseas, you 519 00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,200 Speaker 8: see that there's an issue that there's not enough seats, 520 00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 8: so they would be supply and demand, so the pvices 521 00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:59,440 Speaker 8: are going to be higher because there's not enough supply. 522 00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,439 Speaker 1: So what's a typical deal for you look like if 523 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,840 Speaker 1: you're going to lease x number of jets to a 524 00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,160 Speaker 1: well known airline, what are kind of like the terms 525 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 1: of a deal? What are the key terms that you 526 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:10,400 Speaker 1: guys negotiate. 527 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:12,960 Speaker 8: So first of all is the length. So usually we 528 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:14,879 Speaker 8: try to do as long as possible, especially with the 529 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,920 Speaker 8: major care so it's twelve year, fifteen years kind of lease. 530 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:19,800 Speaker 8: It starts at seven years usually the shortest one we 531 00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:22,399 Speaker 8: have in our portfolio, and then you lease it to 532 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:25,040 Speaker 8: an airline, and of course better the credit is and 533 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,320 Speaker 8: if it's one of the major airlines, lower is the 534 00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,639 Speaker 8: least factor that you are going to give them. Also, 535 00:24:29,840 --> 00:24:31,800 Speaker 8: it's a lot about relationships. You need to make sure 536 00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 8: that you protect the relationship with those airlines to make 537 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:35,879 Speaker 8: sure that when they need you, you are there. You 538 00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:39,040 Speaker 8: cannot be always hard on the airline because it's more partnership. 539 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:40,639 Speaker 8: You only have few airlines you can deal with, so 540 00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:42,320 Speaker 8: you need to make sure that you protect that relationship 541 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:45,200 Speaker 8: way deeply and with all the airlines that we have 542 00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,400 Speaker 8: relationship with I think when they needed us they found 543 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:48,280 Speaker 8: especial during COVID. 544 00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:51,000 Speaker 2: But I imagine your cost of financing is starting the 545 00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:52,840 Speaker 2: sore right, Yes, because of finance is. 546 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 8: Going higher, especially on the death side due to the 547 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:58,919 Speaker 8: unsail says. But in our markets there's a lag between 548 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,240 Speaker 8: the cost of finance seen and the least grate factor, 549 00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 8: which is the designs that we charge the airlines. There's 550 00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:05,920 Speaker 8: usually six months delay. And I think in the next 551 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,080 Speaker 8: few months that Lee's grades factor is going to go higher, 552 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 8: and therefore the cost of leasing aircrafts to the airlines 553 00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:11,160 Speaker 8: is going to go higher. 554 00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 5: So you buy do you buy directly from like air Bus? 555 00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:16,360 Speaker 5: And as of no, we don't. 556 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 8: What we do is like when an airline goes and 557 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,399 Speaker 8: buy from Ebers and Bowing about one year before the 558 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,400 Speaker 8: issue IFP, and they come to us and say, guys, 559 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,200 Speaker 8: can you finance this aircraft that's we bost from Boys, 560 00:25:24,280 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 8: Boying and Evers seven years ago, for example, So they 561 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 8: have the PGPs, we completely the payments that they pay 562 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,359 Speaker 8: seven years before then they make all the payments and 563 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,320 Speaker 8: one year before the issue IFP in the market to 564 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 8: ask who can do what we call a san and 565 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 8: Liz bag for those aircrafts or finances for those aircrafts, 566 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 8: and that's how we do it's usually with airlines. 567 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,080 Speaker 5: Very cool, that's a cool business. Yeah, I didn't even 568 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:43,240 Speaker 5: know that. 569 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,320 Speaker 9: That's kind of how they get ahead of it, unlike 570 00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,920 Speaker 9: what you probably used to do for let's say, cellular 571 00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,480 Speaker 9: tower companies, right, they would sell those and lead them 572 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:54,320 Speaker 9: back and they do it, you know, before the first 573 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,040 Speaker 9: site actually hits the ground or fascinator. 574 00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:57,880 Speaker 1: All right, next time we do this amer cash Ali 575 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,200 Speaker 1: then El Madani, CEO of A B L Aviation, talking 576 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:03,720 Speaker 1: about the kind of the making of the sausage of 577 00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:06,719 Speaker 1: the whole aerospace airline industry, how the planes actually get 578 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 1: to the airlines and we get our little fannies in 579 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:13,240 Speaker 1: the seats, so supply shortage out there for airlines. 580 00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,640 Speaker 6: You're listening to the team. Ken's a our live program 581 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:21,600 Speaker 6: Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 582 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,960 Speaker 6: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen 583 00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 6: on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 584 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,639 Speaker 1: Again, right in the thick of earning season in a 585 00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:34,119 Speaker 1: big way, let's check in with Liz Young, head of 586 00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 1: Investment Strategy, at so far, Liz, you know, we're starting 587 00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,560 Speaker 1: to really get some sense of kind of where companies 588 00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 1: are seeing some choke points, where they're seeing some opportunities. 589 00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 1: What are you taking away from kind of what we've 590 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:47,480 Speaker 1: seen so far this earning season? 591 00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,000 Speaker 10: Yeah, thanks for having me. So, I think the first 592 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:53,840 Speaker 10: couple of things that we took away from it where 593 00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:57,320 Speaker 10: everybody was fearing the bank earnings, and those turned out 594 00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,640 Speaker 10: to be better than better than feared at least, which 595 00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:04,639 Speaker 10: I think public sentiment except for First Republic, but I 596 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 10: don't know that that was something that we were all 597 00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:09,639 Speaker 10: hoping for some sort of huge positive surprise out of. 598 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:11,720 Speaker 10: So a lot of the news that was out there 599 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:16,280 Speaker 10: I think was expected, but bank earnings, particularly big bank earnings, 600 00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:18,200 Speaker 10: came in better than expected, and that was a nice 601 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:22,399 Speaker 10: sentiment boost to kick off earning season, which was different 602 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:25,160 Speaker 10: from what I think everybody feared could have been possible. 603 00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:27,640 Speaker 10: And then as we've moved through, I mean, obviously we've 604 00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 10: still got a lot to go, and this is a 605 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 10: really big week for earnings, as is next week. But 606 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,920 Speaker 10: what we're seeing now is you've got even some consumer 607 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:39,400 Speaker 10: staples types companies and some consumer discretionary companies still seeing 608 00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:44,000 Speaker 10: the benefit of being able to pass cost increases through 609 00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:47,879 Speaker 10: in their prices, and revenues have grown maybe more than 610 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,280 Speaker 10: people expected as well. The one thing that we still 611 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,960 Speaker 10: need to be watching very very closely is that idea 612 00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:57,960 Speaker 10: that profit margins were so fat coming into this and 613 00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:01,440 Speaker 10: that's what was going to protect us. As inflation comes down, 614 00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,199 Speaker 10: revenues are likely to come down with it, and if 615 00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:07,760 Speaker 10: companies have not cut costs enough or quickly enough to 616 00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,879 Speaker 10: preserve those margins, we could start to hear about more 617 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:12,920 Speaker 10: and more pressure as the quarters roll on. 618 00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:15,760 Speaker 2: So what do we Last year, we did have some 619 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:17,879 Speaker 2: big fat profit margins right across the S and P 620 00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:19,920 Speaker 2: five hundred. I think it was about fifteen percent, and 621 00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 2: we were looking at earnings of like two twenty three. 622 00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:24,040 Speaker 2: What do you expect for. 623 00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:28,960 Speaker 10: This year, Liz, Well, it's interesting that expectations have not 624 00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 10: really come down very much in the last couple months, 625 00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:35,800 Speaker 10: and right now, if things stay as expected, we'll have 626 00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:39,320 Speaker 10: a flat year in twenty twenty three versus twenty twenty two, 627 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:43,600 Speaker 10: which I find difficult to imagine given the environment and 628 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,640 Speaker 10: given the fact that the FED has tightened conditions so much, 629 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:49,320 Speaker 10: and we're now hearing quite a few headlines about not 630 00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,960 Speaker 10: only pressure and commercial real estate, but just credit tightening overall, 631 00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:56,720 Speaker 10: which is likely to pressure the availability of funds for 632 00:28:56,920 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 10: smaller businesses, mid sized businesses. And that's something that takes 633 00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,680 Speaker 10: a little while to bleed through into the greater economy, 634 00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 10: but it's certainly something that is not to be ignored. 635 00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:10,280 Speaker 10: So I would expect that earnings probably contract, maybe just slightly, 636 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:13,360 Speaker 10: but I would expect them to contract for the full year. 637 00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,760 Speaker 10: And one of the other really interesting things that you 638 00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:19,600 Speaker 10: can look at is in this earning season in particular, 639 00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:23,640 Speaker 10: although it's expected to be negative growth for the quarter, 640 00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:27,560 Speaker 10: the sectors that are expected to add positively to that 641 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:31,840 Speaker 10: number are mostly cyclical. So if we head into something 642 00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:35,280 Speaker 10: like an economic contraction, we probably lose some of the 643 00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:38,680 Speaker 10: strength in those cyclical sectors, which is why I feel 644 00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,440 Speaker 10: like even just the flat earnings expectation year over year 645 00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:43,240 Speaker 10: is a little bit fragile at this point. 646 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 2: Isn't it odd that we have such bearish sentiment. I mean, 647 00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:54,600 Speaker 2: even you know, the bowls of yesterday are bears today 648 00:29:56,320 --> 00:30:02,760 Speaker 2: Kilanovitch for example. And yet analysts haven't taken down their 649 00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:08,360 Speaker 2: earnings expectations to below last year and hedge funds are 650 00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:11,160 Speaker 2: short treasuries. Like, what's going on? How do you square 651 00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:11,719 Speaker 2: this circle? 652 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:13,480 Speaker 11: Yeah? 653 00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 10: One of the themes that I've been talking about all 654 00:30:15,680 --> 00:30:19,360 Speaker 10: year is that there's been these contradictory signals and somebody 655 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:21,360 Speaker 10: is going to be wrong. Right, one of them is 656 00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:24,880 Speaker 10: going to be wrong. I would not ignore the bond market, 657 00:30:25,000 --> 00:30:27,360 Speaker 10: and the signals of the bond market has been sending. 658 00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:30,560 Speaker 10: All the different curve inversions, the volatility in something like 659 00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:33,120 Speaker 10: the two year yield, those are not signs of a 660 00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,200 Speaker 10: stable market environment. Those are signs of a period where 661 00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:39,840 Speaker 10: we're still ripe for large intra day or intra week swings. 662 00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:42,400 Speaker 10: And I think we're sort of stuck in this purgatory 663 00:30:42,560 --> 00:30:45,120 Speaker 10: right now where there hasn't been a catalyst on either 664 00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,640 Speaker 10: the upside or the downside to get us out of 665 00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:50,280 Speaker 10: a trading range in equities. And that's what we're all 666 00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,320 Speaker 10: waiting for. But you're right that it seems like one 667 00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:55,080 Speaker 10: another bull dies every day. 668 00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 11: Right. 669 00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:58,240 Speaker 10: We've got a lot of headwinds and a lot of data, 670 00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:02,720 Speaker 10: and just an environment doesn't usually bode well for equity 671 00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 10: return and equity upside. But the reality is that it's 672 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,000 Speaker 10: that old a dodge you don't fight the tape, and 673 00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,240 Speaker 10: a lot of the strength still is showing itself in 674 00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:16,080 Speaker 10: some of the technicals. There are obviously buyers there waiting 675 00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:19,040 Speaker 10: for the littlest dip to put more money into work. 676 00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:22,160 Speaker 10: So we can't argue with that at this point. And 677 00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:24,440 Speaker 10: I think it's what's kept us sort of in between 678 00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:28,680 Speaker 10: those beacons on either side of a trading range in 679 00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:30,560 Speaker 10: the S and P and even in the NAW deck 680 00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:31,200 Speaker 10: to some degree. 681 00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:33,480 Speaker 1: You know, this is a little bit of a technical 682 00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:36,480 Speaker 1: analysis question, but you know, the good news is the 683 00:31:36,600 --> 00:31:39,400 Speaker 1: S and P is up five percent, our seven percent 684 00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,480 Speaker 1: year to date. Kind of the questioning news is that 685 00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:43,440 Speaker 1: there hasn't been. 686 00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:44,720 Speaker 5: Like a lot of breadth. 687 00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,720 Speaker 1: I guess if you will, and there hasn't been, you know, 688 00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:52,120 Speaker 1: I'm just it doesn't feel like it's really being broadly 689 00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:55,520 Speaker 1: embraced here. Is that in fact your read of it? 690 00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:56,720 Speaker 1: And if so, does that wear you. 691 00:31:59,000 --> 00:31:59,160 Speaker 11: Well? 692 00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:00,880 Speaker 10: One of the things that you want to see if 693 00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,160 Speaker 10: you believe that this is a new bowl market, and 694 00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:04,880 Speaker 10: it would have to go hand in hand with the 695 00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:08,000 Speaker 10: idea that this is also a new economic expansion or 696 00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:11,440 Speaker 10: that we're in an economic expansionary environment. If that were 697 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:14,960 Speaker 10: the case, you would see something like smaller cap stocks 698 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:19,120 Speaker 10: at least participating in the rally, if not leading the rally, 699 00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:21,680 Speaker 10: and that is not what's been happening. So you're seeing 700 00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,600 Speaker 10: a lot of the strength coming from big cap tech 701 00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:27,880 Speaker 10: and just large cap names in general, which has an 702 00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:31,240 Speaker 10: outsized effect on market cap weighted indices, and I think 703 00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,520 Speaker 10: we're all aware of that. But in order for it 704 00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:37,560 Speaker 10: to be consistent with a new bowl market an early expansion, 705 00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,440 Speaker 10: you want to see small caps participate. You also want 706 00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,600 Speaker 10: to see something like the gold the copper to gold 707 00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:46,400 Speaker 10: ratio be rising, copper being more cyclical, gold being more 708 00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:50,480 Speaker 10: of a stable store of value. That's not been happening either, 709 00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:54,680 Speaker 10: because gold continued to make new highs recently. So it's 710 00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 10: there are inconsistencies with the signals that you'd want to 711 00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,440 Speaker 10: see in order to believe in this as a new 712 00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,200 Speaker 10: bowl market, which I think is also why you see 713 00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,840 Speaker 10: more and more people every day getting cautious because the 714 00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:09,680 Speaker 10: data and the backup for saying that this is a 715 00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:13,200 Speaker 10: bull market just isn't necessarily there in the way that 716 00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:13,800 Speaker 10: we'd want. 717 00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:13,880 Speaker 4: It to be. 718 00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:18,600 Speaker 2: Well, And there's also the factor of returns. You can 719 00:33:18,680 --> 00:33:21,960 Speaker 2: actually get those now, so if you're freaked out about 720 00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:25,160 Speaker 2: this market, just like if you were freaked out about 721 00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:28,680 Speaker 2: your bank. There are money markets out there. There are 722 00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:32,600 Speaker 2: you know, atfs out there that can offer you very 723 00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:36,960 Speaker 2: safe for five five and a half percent returns. 724 00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:40,880 Speaker 10: Right, Yeah, they can offer you income, They can offer 725 00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,760 Speaker 10: you a yield, so it's not necessarily a capital return, 726 00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:46,800 Speaker 10: but it is something that These are rates we haven't 727 00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:48,960 Speaker 10: seen in decades, and they may be rates that we 728 00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:51,760 Speaker 10: don't see for a very long time again. So if 729 00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,560 Speaker 10: you are in this kind of weighted out camp, which 730 00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:57,560 Speaker 10: I would be at this point, the title of my 731 00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:00,400 Speaker 10: blog last week was whistle while you wait, you can 732 00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,360 Speaker 10: get a benefit for waiting it out and getting paid, 733 00:34:04,480 --> 00:34:07,600 Speaker 10: well you wait right, getting paid in yield in some 734 00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:10,279 Speaker 10: of those really safe places that would be the short 735 00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:12,600 Speaker 10: end of the treasury curve, So anything shorter than about 736 00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,320 Speaker 10: three years, that would be money markets that could be 737 00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:18,319 Speaker 10: CDs depending on where you want to put it. There 738 00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:20,600 Speaker 10: are a lot of decent options out there to get 739 00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:21,200 Speaker 10: paid while we. 740 00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:21,719 Speaker 4: Wait this out. 741 00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:24,800 Speaker 5: And Liz love to get your thoughts just on valuation 742 00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:25,480 Speaker 5: in this market. 743 00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:28,839 Speaker 1: It feels it doesn't feel cheap to me by any means. 744 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,400 Speaker 1: And now I got smart folks like you telling me 745 00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:33,960 Speaker 1: that I still got earnings risk in this market. So 746 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,360 Speaker 1: you really can't make a valuation call here, can you. 747 00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:42,320 Speaker 10: Well, valuations are never a good timing mechanism, so the 748 00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,440 Speaker 10: fact that we're trading above the ten and fifteen year 749 00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:48,759 Speaker 10: average on the SMP doesn't exactly give me warm and 750 00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:51,560 Speaker 10: fuzzy feelings about this being a good entry point. The 751 00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:53,319 Speaker 10: other thing that I would say is if we're looking 752 00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:56,600 Speaker 10: at eighteen point one eighteen point two times forward earnings, 753 00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:01,719 Speaker 10: that's above the ten year average, that year period was 754 00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,839 Speaker 10: spent with five of those years at zero interest rates, 755 00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:07,719 Speaker 10: and the average tenure Treasury yield over that period was 756 00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:10,320 Speaker 10: about two to two point one percent. We are obviously 757 00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:13,120 Speaker 10: in a different environment right now, so the valuations don't 758 00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:16,279 Speaker 10: look all that compelling given what's going on in the 759 00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,440 Speaker 10: economy and given what's going on in the rate environment. 760 00:35:19,960 --> 00:35:23,120 Speaker 10: Now that being said, if the earnings come down further, 761 00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:26,360 Speaker 10: if estimates come down further, and the results come in 762 00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:30,239 Speaker 10: lower than expected, you're going to see what's called multiple expansion. 763 00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:33,000 Speaker 10: And it's also difficult to argue that we deserve to 764 00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:38,239 Speaker 10: see more multiple expansion with deteriorating fundamentals. So it's true 765 00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:40,840 Speaker 10: the valuation picture right now, if you're looking at that 766 00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:43,759 Speaker 10: as some kind of guide, it doesn't seem like a 767 00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:46,359 Speaker 10: great time to be putting new money to work. 768 00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:49,279 Speaker 2: I wanted to just also give you a shout out 769 00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:52,000 Speaker 2: for that blog a post, Liz, because it's pretty awesome, 770 00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:56,160 Speaker 2: the snow white thread going through. So while you wait 771 00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:58,600 Speaker 2: looking for the poison Apple mirror, mirror on the wall, 772 00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:02,120 Speaker 2: I just pulled it up on dot com. So just 773 00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:05,480 Speaker 2: for our listeners, you can you can subscribe to Liz's 774 00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:07,759 Speaker 2: blog on SOFI dot com. You can listen to it 775 00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:11,080 Speaker 2: as well, which I think I'm gonna put my subscription 776 00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:11,560 Speaker 2: in right now. 777 00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:13,480 Speaker 1: All right, Liz Young, thanks so much for joining us. 778 00:36:13,520 --> 00:36:16,520 Speaker 1: Liz Young, head of Investment Strategy at SOFI. 779 00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:21,200 Speaker 6: You're listening to the tape cats are live program Bloomberg 780 00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:24,840 Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 781 00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:28,120 Speaker 6: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 782 00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:31,000 Speaker 6: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 783 00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:35,400 Speaker 6: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 784 00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:38,920 Speaker 5: I'm going to get to the conversation now of the day. 785 00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:43,880 Speaker 1: Brian Stelter, he's the Walter Shorenstein Fellow at Harvard University, 786 00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:45,879 Speaker 1: but we all know him as the former chief media 787 00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:49,360 Speaker 1: correspondent at CNN, former media reporter for The New York Times, 788 00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:52,359 Speaker 1: a published author several times over. 789 00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,880 Speaker 5: We really he was our go to guy on this topic. 790 00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:57,359 Speaker 1: We want to get a sense of what it means 791 00:36:57,440 --> 00:36:59,880 Speaker 1: for Tucker Carlson to be let go at Fox, what 792 00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:01,960 Speaker 1: does it mean for Don Lemon to be pushed out 793 00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:02,840 Speaker 1: at CNN? 794 00:37:03,120 --> 00:37:04,880 Speaker 5: And there's nobody better. Brian, thank you so much for 795 00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:06,440 Speaker 5: taking the time to join us. 796 00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:08,920 Speaker 1: I want to start with Tucker Carlson, because boy, that 797 00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:12,200 Speaker 1: one took. I think everybody by surprise. What's your read 798 00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:14,680 Speaker 1: of what's happening with some of these high profile names 799 00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:16,200 Speaker 1: at these cable networks. 800 00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:20,319 Speaker 12: Yeah, Don Lemon's departure from CNN was inevitable, but Tucker 801 00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:24,640 Speaker 12: Carlson's firing that was incredible. It's true that nobody saw 802 00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:29,080 Speaker 12: that coming, including Tucker Carlson. He viewed himself as all powerful, 803 00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,560 Speaker 12: as even bigger than Fox News. You know, he would 804 00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:35,239 Speaker 12: sometimes criticize his bosses at Fox and that may have 805 00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:37,360 Speaker 12: led to his dismissal. You know, we don't know for 806 00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,600 Speaker 12: sure because Fox is not commenting. Carlson still hasn't said 807 00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:42,680 Speaker 12: a word about this. It's been twenty five hours. He's 808 00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,080 Speaker 12: totally silent. But what we do now is that in 809 00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:48,600 Speaker 12: the Dominion lawsuit, through the discovery process, Dominion was able 810 00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:52,200 Speaker 12: to obtain Huger Carlson's phones, you know, his text messages, 811 00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:55,120 Speaker 12: his emails, and some of those emails and texts were 812 00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:57,239 Speaker 12: pretty embarrassing. They were out in public because of the 813 00:37:57,320 --> 00:38:00,480 Speaker 12: legal filings, but many others were redacted. Many of the 814 00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:04,560 Speaker 12: other messages were redacted. That means Fox knows what Tucker said, 815 00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:06,399 Speaker 12: and Dominion knows what Tucker has said, but the rest 816 00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:08,680 Speaker 12: of us don't. And I think the answer to why 817 00:38:08,760 --> 00:38:12,320 Speaker 12: he was dismissed is somewhere in those redacted text messages. 818 00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:17,880 Speaker 2: It's interesting because the ones that we saw he said, 819 00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:21,560 Speaker 2: you know, Donald Trump was a demonic force, and he 820 00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:24,080 Speaker 2: called the Trump team liars, and I think he may 821 00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:27,200 Speaker 2: have said even that he hated President Trump. And then 822 00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:29,840 Speaker 2: last week or two weeks ago, he sits down with 823 00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:34,280 Speaker 2: the former president and gives him the most softball interview 824 00:38:34,880 --> 00:38:38,880 Speaker 2: I have ever seen. What's happening in that relationship. 825 00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:42,640 Speaker 12: Brian The most generous assessment is that you know he 826 00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:44,680 Speaker 12: was mad at his friend, right, he was mad at 827 00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:49,040 Speaker 12: his friend for inciting a riot. The less generous explanation 828 00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:52,040 Speaker 12: as the Carlson ze grifter. He's a hypocrite. He'll do 829 00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:55,279 Speaker 12: whatever it takes to keep his audience happy, and if 830 00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,640 Speaker 12: it means pretending to love Donald Trump when he hates 831 00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,360 Speaker 12: sald Trump, then he'll go ahead and do that. I 832 00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:02,800 Speaker 12: think the answer is probably somewhere in the middle. I 833 00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:06,120 Speaker 12: think what we were seeing from Carlson were messages in 834 00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:08,720 Speaker 12: the heat of the moment, in that awful period between 835 00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:11,960 Speaker 12: the election and the insurrection and then right after the insurrection. 836 00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:15,480 Speaker 12: But I always remember what he said that night. You know, 837 00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,480 Speaker 12: the police were still trying to restore order on January sixth, 838 00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:21,320 Speaker 12: there was a curfew. The city was terrifying. And what 839 00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:23,120 Speaker 12: it Tucker said to his viewers that night. He looked 840 00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:25,680 Speaker 12: in the camera and he said, this is not your fault, 841 00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:28,759 Speaker 12: this is their fault. She never really said who they was. 842 00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:31,160 Speaker 12: But that's Tucker's show in a nutshell, us versus them, 843 00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:35,360 Speaker 12: you versus everyone else, us against the world. That's his message, 844 00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:38,239 Speaker 12: and well to the extent that he needs to. You know, 845 00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,920 Speaker 12: throw softballs to Trump to keep his own power and 846 00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,160 Speaker 12: keeps to spreading that message, and he's willing to do it. 847 00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:44,680 Speaker 12: I mean, we've seen that kind of where will he 848 00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:45,160 Speaker 12: re emerge? 849 00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:48,960 Speaker 2: We've seen that kind of scapegoadism right throughout history. Stirring 850 00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:51,640 Speaker 2: up anger, stirring up fear seems to be a great 851 00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:55,360 Speaker 2: business model for Fox. Does Carlson really have a monopoly 852 00:39:55,480 --> 00:40:00,440 Speaker 2: on that or can they just put anybody in that spot? Well, 853 00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:00,840 Speaker 2: this is a. 854 00:40:00,840 --> 00:40:03,240 Speaker 12: Supply and demand problem, right We're talking about the supply. 855 00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:06,320 Speaker 12: Tucker Carlson was a supplier. Whoever replaces him will be 856 00:40:06,360 --> 00:40:09,440 Speaker 12: a supplier. The thornier part of this is demand. Why 857 00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:12,200 Speaker 12: is there a demand for that kind of rage news, 858 00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:16,279 Speaker 12: hate news, you know, commentary that's full of resentment and 859 00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:19,000 Speaker 12: grievance about what they perceived to be a loss to America. 860 00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:21,279 Speaker 12: As you said, there's a long history of this in 861 00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:24,440 Speaker 12: America and in other countries, and Tucker tapped into it 862 00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:27,200 Speaker 12: in a really unique way. But I do believe there 863 00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:29,359 Speaker 12: are many others who would like a chance to give 864 00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:32,440 Speaker 12: it a try. Now that said, Rupert Murdoch and Laughlin Murdoch, 865 00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:34,960 Speaker 12: they are actually the bosses here, not Tucker. They are 866 00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:37,160 Speaker 12: the ones they decided to make a change, and I 867 00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,600 Speaker 12: have a feeling it's just an educated guess that they 868 00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:44,000 Speaker 12: don't want to have a repeat her Carlson. They do 869 00:40:44,120 --> 00:40:46,759 Speaker 12: not want another show that's going to live in these 870 00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:50,120 Speaker 12: fever swamps that's going to indulge white identity politics to 871 00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:52,960 Speaker 12: the degree that Carlson did. I guess we're going to 872 00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:55,560 Speaker 12: find out when they actually choose a new host. For now, 873 00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:57,360 Speaker 12: they're probably going to have tryouts on the air for 874 00:40:57,440 --> 00:40:59,759 Speaker 12: a while. But Brian Kilmead was the person they chose 875 00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:03,719 Speaker 12: yes yesterday, and that's very revealing. Brian kilmeat is a conservative, 876 00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:06,359 Speaker 12: but he is not a conspiracy monger the way Tker 877 00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:09,879 Speaker 12: Carlson is. As one source said to me, Brand knows 878 00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,520 Speaker 12: where the line is. He knows where the line is, 879 00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:14,200 Speaker 12: and I think that might be the kind of person 880 00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:15,680 Speaker 12: the Murdochs want to install. 881 00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:19,920 Speaker 2: What do you think about the possibility of Newsmax getting 882 00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:24,560 Speaker 2: Tucker Carlson or are there any other networks that can 883 00:41:24,640 --> 00:41:26,880 Speaker 2: really compete with Fox in terms of this kind of 884 00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:28,000 Speaker 2: product at this level. 885 00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:30,839 Speaker 12: You know, again only an educated guest, but I think 886 00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:33,480 Speaker 12: the only way that Carlson ends up at another far 887 00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:35,640 Speaker 12: right network. Is if he buys the network, if he 888 00:41:35,719 --> 00:41:38,040 Speaker 12: takes it over, if he becomes the you know, the 889 00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:40,240 Speaker 12: head of the network. If he becomes you know, remember 890 00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:43,320 Speaker 12: Oprah Winfrey a reformatted at a cable channel ten fifteen 891 00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:46,480 Speaker 12: years ago, something called own. That's the only model I 892 00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:49,279 Speaker 12: could see Tucker going because he feels he is way 893 00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:52,320 Speaker 12: too big to be on a small, fringe cable channel 894 00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:55,120 Speaker 12: doing a show one hour a day. He wants an empire, 895 00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:57,400 Speaker 12: and he was starting to build an empire at Fox. 896 00:41:57,480 --> 00:41:59,279 Speaker 12: So I think it makes sense that he will go 897 00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:01,600 Speaker 12: out and try to build an empire somewhere else. 898 00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:04,759 Speaker 1: Hey, Brian, you know I've as an equity research channel, 899 00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:07,760 Speaker 1: so I covered Fox Corporation in the Murdoch family for decades, 900 00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:11,200 Speaker 1: and I'm wondering, I'm not sure that I guess this 901 00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:14,720 Speaker 1: feels much more like a Lachlan decision than a Murdoch decision, 902 00:42:15,440 --> 00:42:18,680 Speaker 1: or do you think there was some more cohesion there. 903 00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:22,040 Speaker 12: It's so delicious because for years all we heard was 904 00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:24,280 Speaker 12: that Lachlin and Tucker were so close, and my reporting 905 00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:26,400 Speaker 12: indicates that was true. They were chummy, they would hang 906 00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:28,360 Speaker 12: out together when they were in the same city, but 907 00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:30,840 Speaker 12: clearly there's been a fracture in the relationship or this 908 00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:34,200 Speaker 12: is just one of those ruthless business decisions by Laughlin 909 00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:37,640 Speaker 12: at the end of the day, though, I'd like to 910 00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:39,279 Speaker 12: know more, and I hope we learn more about the 911 00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:41,800 Speaker 12: Rupert Murdoch role in this, because we have read a 912 00:42:41,840 --> 00:42:45,080 Speaker 12: lot of Rupert's emails, We've read his dissatisfaction with Donald Trump. 913 00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:48,839 Speaker 12: It increasingly feels like Rupert Murdoch, you know, has become 914 00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:53,000 Speaker 12: prisoner to this radicalized GOP that he helped create. What 915 00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:55,200 Speaker 12: I wonder is is he trying to drag it back 916 00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:57,279 Speaker 12: toward the middle? Is he trying to drag it back 917 00:42:57,360 --> 00:43:01,040 Speaker 12: more toward a reality based GOP. The day Tarry Carlson, 918 00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:03,520 Speaker 12: you know, it was more of a Donald Trump Republican, well, 919 00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:06,560 Speaker 12: Rupert Murdox more of an Asa Hutchinson, Chris Christie Republican. 920 00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:09,680 Speaker 12: You know, part of this is a proxy for the 921 00:43:09,840 --> 00:43:11,719 Speaker 12: war for the soul to Republican Party. 922 00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:12,400 Speaker 9: Is that what? 923 00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:16,200 Speaker 2: So I've heard that theory. I'm not sure how much 924 00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:18,719 Speaker 2: credence I give that Fox is gonna try and get 925 00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:20,879 Speaker 2: back towards the middle or just back towards the right 926 00:43:21,719 --> 00:43:24,440 Speaker 2: from the ultra right. But what about CNN. I mean, 927 00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:27,520 Speaker 2: they have voiced that I think that was part of 928 00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:31,520 Speaker 2: the reason that Reliable Sources got canceled. And I want 929 00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:33,000 Speaker 2: to say, I think a lot of people miss that show. 930 00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:34,120 Speaker 5: Brian, thank you. 931 00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:36,640 Speaker 2: Is that the reason that Don Lemon was out or 932 00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:39,239 Speaker 2: was it just the comment about women being past their 933 00:43:39,280 --> 00:43:41,760 Speaker 2: prime and there if they're not in their twenties and thirties. 934 00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:43,960 Speaker 12: Well, first of all, I don't technically know why my 935 00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:46,840 Speaker 12: show was canceled. I know some folks think it was political. 936 00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:49,120 Speaker 12: I don't know what happened, but I do believe Don 937 00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,200 Speaker 12: Lemon was on thin ice and felt that he was 938 00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:54,240 Speaker 12: on thin ice because of the new management at CNN. 939 00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:56,560 Speaker 12: I think this was about more than any single incident. 940 00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:58,920 Speaker 12: So the controversy about Nikki Haley, you know, that was 941 00:43:58,960 --> 00:44:01,600 Speaker 12: a self inflicted woun that was foolish. There were other 942 00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:05,560 Speaker 12: foolish moments, but this seemed to be not any single 943 00:44:05,760 --> 00:44:08,440 Speaker 12: there was at of any single episode, but rather an accumulation, 944 00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:12,160 Speaker 12: an accumulation of controversies and frustrations. You know, it was 945 00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:14,239 Speaker 12: almost just like Don Lemon and CNN were heading in 946 00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:17,360 Speaker 12: two different directions, and it was kind of inevitable this 947 00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:18,560 Speaker 12: day would come, it's. 948 00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:20,800 Speaker 2: Interesting that happened on the same day. What do you 949 00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:23,880 Speaker 2: think of then, the decision by the Biden administration to 950 00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:30,360 Speaker 2: put out like a quiet presidential election campaign launch video 951 00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:34,440 Speaker 2: the morning after the Tucker Carlson news kind of rocks 952 00:44:34,520 --> 00:44:35,759 Speaker 2: the media landscape. 953 00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:36,879 Speaker 6: Yeah. 954 00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:39,320 Speaker 12: I don't actually think they're related, although it is interesting 955 00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:41,600 Speaker 12: timing and for Biden to be out there trying to 956 00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:44,359 Speaker 12: basically say, let's you know, if if Biden in twenty 957 00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:48,120 Speaker 12: twenty was saying make America saying again, make America calm again, 958 00:44:48,600 --> 00:44:51,719 Speaker 12: then his message today is let's keep America calm, Let's 959 00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:55,359 Speaker 12: keep America saying let's keep America just like lower let's 960 00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:57,960 Speaker 12: keep a temperature down right, let's lower lower the temperature. 961 00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:00,480 Speaker 12: That's the opposite of what cable knew this is about 962 00:45:00,520 --> 00:45:02,680 Speaker 12: these days, especially Fox. I think it is a false 963 00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:04,560 Speaker 12: equivalence to claim that the Fox and CNN are two 964 00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:07,279 Speaker 12: sides of a coin. They're not. Fox is its own beast, 965 00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:11,239 Speaker 12: and Fox isn't anything but sane, calm, normal, right, and 966 00:45:11,280 --> 00:45:13,759 Speaker 12: it's Carlson lurder. Carlson was, you know, kind of the 967 00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:16,000 Speaker 12: most conspiratorial, im paomoid of them all at Fox. 968 00:45:16,400 --> 00:45:16,960 Speaker 11: So there's a. 969 00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:20,319 Speaker 12: There's a contrast. I suspect the Biden campaign does not mind, right, 970 00:45:20,400 --> 00:45:23,839 Speaker 12: the really does not mind between the cable chaos, right, 971 00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:27,640 Speaker 12: the pipers and noise that's out there, versus the Biden message, 972 00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:28,960 Speaker 12: which is I'm gonna make you more for. 973 00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:30,600 Speaker 1: All right, Brian, We're gonna have to leave it there 974 00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:33,080 Speaker 1: just because the time Brian Stealter, he is at Harvard 975 00:45:33,160 --> 00:45:35,320 Speaker 1: University now formerly of CNN. 976 00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:39,880 Speaker 6: You're listening to the team. Can's a live program Bloomberg 977 00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:43,160 Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 978 00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:46,520 Speaker 6: the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen 979 00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:48,759 Speaker 6: on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 980 00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:54,719 Speaker 1: Getting back to one of my favorite topics, industrial America, 981 00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:58,120 Speaker 1: where they make stuff, like in the Midwest. We had 982 00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:01,600 Speaker 1: the gentleman from Hunting Bank in Ohio on earlier and 983 00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:05,440 Speaker 1: he says, yeah, we make stuff. GE makes stuff, Boeing 984 00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:08,440 Speaker 1: makes stuff, Three M makes stuff. So we want to 985 00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:11,400 Speaker 1: talk industrials. We talked to Brooks Southerland. She's the Industrial 986 00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:14,439 Speaker 1: and M and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. She joined 987 00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:17,440 Speaker 1: us live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. 988 00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:18,440 Speaker 5: Let's start with. 989 00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:23,000 Speaker 1: Ge I'm looking at the PGeo function of on the 990 00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:25,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal for G. It kind of gives you segment 991 00:46:25,480 --> 00:46:28,440 Speaker 1: information because I want to see what's left of GE. 992 00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:32,480 Speaker 1: And it seems like Aviation's big healthcare is big powers, 993 00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:34,759 Speaker 1: big and renewable energy. That's where we are right. 994 00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:36,640 Speaker 11: Well, they actually have gotten rid of the healthcare. 995 00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:39,000 Speaker 5: They've gotten rid of the healthcare. We gotta update PGO. 996 00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:43,319 Speaker 1: That was in January, Okay, so the company had talked 997 00:46:43,320 --> 00:46:44,840 Speaker 1: to us about the quarter they had and talked to 998 00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:47,120 Speaker 1: us about kind of the stocks of fifty percent is 999 00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:48,200 Speaker 1: the worst behind GE. 1000 00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:51,040 Speaker 11: I think that it is, and I mean a lot 1001 00:46:51,080 --> 00:46:53,719 Speaker 11: of it is a reflection of that streamlining that you 1002 00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:57,279 Speaker 11: mentioned that you know, GE was just so complicated for 1003 00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:01,680 Speaker 11: so long, and it just it was hit by one 1004 00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:05,399 Speaker 11: crisis after another that targeted, you know, affected a number 1005 00:47:05,440 --> 00:47:07,560 Speaker 11: of its different business units. And I think that just 1006 00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:11,080 Speaker 11: made investors very apprehensive about owning this company because you 1007 00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:13,279 Speaker 11: just never really knew what you were going to get 1008 00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:16,560 Speaker 11: on earnings day or really any other time. And the 1009 00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:19,160 Speaker 11: company is just a lot simpler than it was before. 1010 00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:22,200 Speaker 11: It's easier to understand, easier to digest, and I think 1011 00:47:22,239 --> 00:47:24,360 Speaker 11: you see that in today's earnings results as well. That 1012 00:47:24,480 --> 00:47:27,239 Speaker 11: this is you know, one of the cleaner, simpler earning 1013 00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:30,480 Speaker 11: statements I've seen from GE. And one of the bigger 1014 00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:33,480 Speaker 11: developments is that they had positive free cash flows. 1015 00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:37,280 Speaker 1: I know that's been important not just for the creditors 1016 00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:39,240 Speaker 1: for this company, but also the equity holders want to see. 1017 00:47:39,080 --> 00:47:42,240 Speaker 11: Free cass absolutely, and this is the first first quarter 1018 00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:44,560 Speaker 11: of positive free cash flows since twenty fifteen. So the 1019 00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:47,920 Speaker 11: company's always been back end weighted to the latter part 1020 00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,560 Speaker 11: of the year, and that's sort of been their typical cycle. 1021 00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:53,320 Speaker 11: But they've talked a lot about smoothing this out, creating 1022 00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:55,280 Speaker 11: a little bit more balanced and so what's really encouraging 1023 00:47:55,320 --> 00:47:56,399 Speaker 11: to see that number there today. 1024 00:47:56,560 --> 00:47:59,160 Speaker 1: Okay, stocks up fifty percent, hit a fifty two week 1025 00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:02,320 Speaker 1: high today, So I mean, our most analysts kind of 1026 00:48:02,400 --> 00:48:06,000 Speaker 1: feel like, you know, this isn't maybe the Ge of 1027 00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:08,160 Speaker 1: our parents, but it's a pretty good company. 1028 00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:11,080 Speaker 11: I think it's getting a lot better. And I think 1029 00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:15,320 Speaker 11: that you know, Larry Colp is very focused on operations. 1030 00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:18,520 Speaker 11: He's a big proponent of lean manufacturing, and he really 1031 00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:21,319 Speaker 11: gets into the weeds on how these businesses are run. 1032 00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:23,880 Speaker 11: And I think that that is paying off. It hasn't, 1033 00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:26,840 Speaker 11: you know, been the fastest process, but it's been slow 1034 00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:29,279 Speaker 11: and steady, and you're seeing GE make a lot of progress. Now. 1035 00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:32,560 Speaker 11: It's heading toward a spinoff of its power and renewable 1036 00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:35,120 Speaker 11: business in twenty twenty four, and that will leave you 1037 00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:39,040 Speaker 11: with essentially just a pure play aerospace asset only. Hiccup 1038 00:48:39,080 --> 00:48:40,799 Speaker 11: there is that they will still have the long term 1039 00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:44,479 Speaker 11: care insurance liabilities, which leads some analysts to speculate could 1040 00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:47,000 Speaker 11: they try to pay somebody to take that off their hands, 1041 00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:49,759 Speaker 11: just to really clean up this story before you get 1042 00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:53,480 Speaker 11: to that aerospace focus. But there's a lot of appetite 1043 00:48:53,520 --> 00:48:56,440 Speaker 11: right now for aerospace companies when you think about, you know, 1044 00:48:56,960 --> 00:48:59,960 Speaker 11: just clean stories. Here in the megacap space, it's Boeing 1045 00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:03,320 Speaker 11: has its own issues, and then you have raytheon, but 1046 00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:06,040 Speaker 11: that has a very sizeable defense business. And if you 1047 00:49:06,160 --> 00:49:09,800 Speaker 11: really want commercial aftermarket, GE is the company. 1048 00:49:09,920 --> 00:49:10,120 Speaker 5: Yep. 1049 00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:12,720 Speaker 1: Absolutely, I'm looking at the a n R function tracks 1050 00:49:12,719 --> 00:49:16,239 Speaker 1: analyst ratings sixteen buys seven holds. So some support on 1051 00:49:16,400 --> 00:49:18,400 Speaker 1: the street. All right, you had a great column from 1052 00:49:18,400 --> 00:49:20,200 Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago. They really got my attention. 1053 00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:22,439 Speaker 1: Boeing can't seem to get out of its own way, 1054 00:49:23,320 --> 00:49:25,719 Speaker 1: and that kind of brings an issue we were talking 1055 00:49:25,760 --> 00:49:27,480 Speaker 1: about earlier today on this show. Matt and I were 1056 00:49:27,480 --> 00:49:31,320 Speaker 1: interviewing a gentleman who's into business of leasing big commercial 1057 00:49:31,440 --> 00:49:34,880 Speaker 1: aircraft to these commercial airliners, and he says business is 1058 00:49:34,920 --> 00:49:37,719 Speaker 1: good with raising rates, lots of demand, there's just no 1059 00:49:37,840 --> 00:49:41,000 Speaker 1: supply of aircraft. Talk to us about what the good 1060 00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:43,160 Speaker 1: folks at Boeing, And I guess the same thing can 1061 00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:47,080 Speaker 1: be said for Airbus. Where's the snag in getting some 1062 00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:50,279 Speaker 1: of these airplanes off the production floor? 1063 00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:52,439 Speaker 11: I mean, I think it's really all up and down 1064 00:49:52,520 --> 00:49:55,840 Speaker 11: the aerospace supply chain, which also includes ge as you know, 1065 00:49:55,920 --> 00:49:58,840 Speaker 11: one of the biggest makers of jet engines. And you know, 1066 00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:01,799 Speaker 11: you have to remember that the airlines in the US 1067 00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:04,520 Speaker 11: had a backstop where the US provided payroll support so 1068 00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:08,279 Speaker 11: that they can keep staff on the payroll for even 1069 00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:10,760 Speaker 11: during the depths of the pandemic. Now that hasn't necessarily 1070 00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:12,520 Speaker 11: always worked out the best for the airlines, but they 1071 00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:14,560 Speaker 11: did have that support that did not extend to the 1072 00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:18,200 Speaker 11: aerospace manufacturers. So they all laid off workers in mass 1073 00:50:18,320 --> 00:50:21,040 Speaker 11: by the thousands, and now demand is back and they 1074 00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:26,319 Speaker 11: are trying to rebuild that labor pipeline and push out 1075 00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:28,440 Speaker 11: all the parts and supplies needed to make these planes. 1076 00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:31,160 Speaker 11: But that it's not that easy because in many cases 1077 00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:33,799 Speaker 11: you're trying to make up for an experience gap. There's 1078 00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:37,480 Speaker 11: a lot of training involved in putting together airplanes. On 1079 00:50:37,600 --> 00:50:41,239 Speaker 11: the defense side, there's a lot of logistics around clearances, 1080 00:50:41,360 --> 00:50:43,360 Speaker 11: that kind of thing, and that's really been a hiccup. 1081 00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:44,960 Speaker 11: And then of course you have just the supply chain 1082 00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:49,000 Speaker 11: issues that everybody's been dealing with around semiconductor's commodities, parts, 1083 00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:51,120 Speaker 11: that sort of thing. Those issues seem to be getting 1084 00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:53,239 Speaker 11: better and it's really a labor challenge. 1085 00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:53,319 Speaker 5: At this point. 1086 00:50:53,360 --> 00:50:56,239 Speaker 1: So what is Boeing saying about its production output? Are 1087 00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:59,720 Speaker 1: they producing after capacity or are they still below capacity 1088 00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:03,080 Speaker 1: trying to add capacity? How did they kind of phrase 1089 00:51:03,280 --> 00:51:05,600 Speaker 1: out or you know, kind of how this is going 1090 00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:07,360 Speaker 1: to play out of the next couple of years. 1091 00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:09,200 Speaker 5: I guess for these companies, sure. 1092 00:51:09,080 --> 00:51:11,640 Speaker 11: Well, Boeing would like to produce its capacity. I mean, 1093 00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:15,560 Speaker 11: it has its own idiosyncratic issues where it had a 1094 00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:19,040 Speaker 11: lot of undelivered seven thirty seven Max jets sitting around 1095 00:51:19,120 --> 00:51:21,520 Speaker 11: because those planes were grounded for so long. Given the 1096 00:51:21,600 --> 00:51:25,360 Speaker 11: two crashes and you know now, and it's had a 1097 00:51:25,440 --> 00:51:28,280 Speaker 11: series of production issues as well that's affected its ability 1098 00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:32,000 Speaker 11: to deliver seven eighty seven Dreamliners. And then we have 1099 00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:34,440 Speaker 11: a new production issue with the seven thirty seven Max, 1100 00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:37,319 Speaker 11: which the company has said will temporarily at least lead 1101 00:51:37,360 --> 00:51:41,279 Speaker 11: it to pause deliveries now. CEO Dave Calhoun at the 1102 00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:45,240 Speaker 11: company's annual meeting said they still expect to increase output 1103 00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:47,560 Speaker 11: of seven thirty seven Max jets, but I think that 1104 00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:50,600 Speaker 11: the onus is on the company to prove that they 1105 00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:53,719 Speaker 11: can do that. And it's not clear at this point 1106 00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:56,359 Speaker 11: just how big of a deal this latest production snap 1107 00:51:56,480 --> 00:51:58,960 Speaker 11: it really is. We should get more details tomorrow when Boeing. 1108 00:51:58,800 --> 00:52:00,840 Speaker 5: Reports earnings reports tomorrow. 1109 00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:03,960 Speaker 1: Okay, so maybe we'll chaty ten Okay, just real quick, 1110 00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:06,680 Speaker 1: three M laying off some people. I'm used to seeing 1111 00:52:06,719 --> 00:52:08,680 Speaker 1: that from these tech companies out in Silicon Valley, but 1112 00:52:08,760 --> 00:52:09,920 Speaker 1: not the heart of America. 1113 00:52:10,080 --> 00:52:11,520 Speaker 5: Just thirty seconds, which. 1114 00:52:11,520 --> 00:52:13,279 Speaker 11: You should be used to seeing it from three M 1115 00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:15,800 Speaker 11: because this is the latest in a very long string 1116 00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:18,760 Speaker 11: of restructuring initiatives at this company that have really failed 1117 00:52:18,840 --> 00:52:21,800 Speaker 11: to have much of an impact. It's been talking for 1118 00:52:21,960 --> 00:52:26,560 Speaker 11: years about streamlining its operations, reorganizing its operating model, and 1119 00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:29,600 Speaker 11: you just do not see the payoff in the company's 1120 00:52:29,640 --> 00:52:32,680 Speaker 11: operating margins. Now. It does have, you know, its own 1121 00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:37,080 Speaker 11: separate issues in the legal world around legacy manufacturing of 1122 00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:40,880 Speaker 11: pfas and military ear plugs. That's been the biggest anchor 1123 00:52:40,960 --> 00:52:42,640 Speaker 11: on the stock. But I think that investors are also 1124 00:52:42,800 --> 00:52:45,920 Speaker 11: just very frustrated with where this company is operationally now. 1125 00:52:45,960 --> 00:52:49,480 Speaker 11: It was one of the more diverse industrial conglomerates that's 1126 00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:51,720 Speaker 11: still out there after all of the spinoffs and breakups 1127 00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:54,399 Speaker 11: that we've seen, and so that certainly, you know, leaves 1128 00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:56,960 Speaker 11: it a little bit more exposed to macro trends. It 1129 00:52:57,040 --> 00:53:00,200 Speaker 11: does cater to consumers more than your typical manufacturer those 1130 00:53:00,239 --> 00:53:02,120 Speaker 11: these days, and it's definitely seeing the pressure there. But 1131 00:53:03,320 --> 00:53:05,640 Speaker 11: I think there's a lot of well. 1132 00:53:05,560 --> 00:53:08,600 Speaker 1: We talked about the analyst support for ge not so 1133 00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:12,360 Speaker 1: much here for three M one by rating fourteen holds 1134 00:53:12,680 --> 00:53:16,280 Speaker 1: and five outright. So so whatever this company I management 1135 00:53:16,280 --> 00:53:18,279 Speaker 1: team is selling the street, it doesn't appear that at 1136 00:53:18,360 --> 00:53:20,400 Speaker 1: least the analyst community is buying it. Brook thanks so 1137 00:53:20,440 --> 00:53:23,279 Speaker 1: much for joining us. Brook Sutherland always a treat to 1138 00:53:23,320 --> 00:53:25,640 Speaker 1: get on the show because we love talking about industrial America. 1139 00:53:25,680 --> 00:53:29,239 Speaker 1: Brook Sutherland Industrial and m and a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, 1140 00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:31,400 Speaker 1: joining us live here in our Bloomberg Conteractive Brokers studio. 1141 00:53:31,719 --> 00:53:36,080 Speaker 1: Lots moving on got earnings coming out all week. Busy, 1142 00:53:36,120 --> 00:53:38,360 Speaker 1: busy week. Busy's week actually for the dal Jones and 1143 00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:40,360 Speaker 1: for the SMP, so we'll stay on top of it. 1144 00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:42,080 Speaker 5: This is Bloomberg. 1145 00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:45,719 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can 1146 00:53:45,760 --> 00:53:49,480 Speaker 2: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever 1147 00:53:49,640 --> 00:53:53,240 Speaker 2: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter 1148 00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:55,439 Speaker 2: at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. 1149 00:53:55,920 --> 00:53:58,280 Speaker 5: And I'm Faull Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. 1150 00:53:58,440 --> 00:54:01,080 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at 1151 00:54:01,080 --> 00:54:01,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio