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Speaker 1: Hello there, Happy Thursday, getting ready for the long for

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Speaker 1: what is going to be a holiday week next week.

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Speaker 1: I'm excited here at the Chuck Podcast. Welcome to another

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Speaker 1: episode of it because my kids come home on Friday.

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Speaker 1: I have to say, when I was in college, we

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Speaker 1: had classes at least Monday and Tuesday. They finally sort

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Speaker 1: of chipped away at the Wednesday before Thanksgiving because I

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Speaker 1: knew everybody was leaving. And now apparently there's no more

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Speaker 1: classes Mondays and tuesdays of Thanksgiving week, at least at

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Speaker 1: the schools that my kids are at. And hey, as

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Speaker 1: a recently empty nested parent, let's just say, I am

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Speaker 1: really looking forward to seeing my kids. I've actually gotten

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Speaker 1: to see them quite a bit this fall. But it

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Speaker 1: is not the same. It is for those of you

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Speaker 1: that have experienced empty nesting. The quiet, right is actually

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Speaker 1: you miss the noise, and I am looking forward to

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Speaker 1: that and that all begins in the next twenty four

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Speaker 1: hours for the Todd household. So I'm happy about that.

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Speaker 1: And I've also as you can see, I'm home. I'm

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Speaker 1: finally home. Look, November travel always in you know, November

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Speaker 1: for me has always been a heavy travel month, whether

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Speaker 1: it's previewing elections, coming doing analysis on post elections talk,

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Speaker 1: scheduling a lot of talks around the country. November has

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Speaker 1: always been a busy travel month. So this has been true,

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Speaker 1: which is why I never travel on Thanksgiving. As I joke,

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Speaker 1: as soon as I had a kid, I declared home

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Speaker 1: field advantage with my family and simply became the Turkey

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Speaker 1: host at this point. And I'm one of those that

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Speaker 1: loves a giant a giant crowd. You're welcome to travel

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Speaker 1: to me. I just don't want to be in an

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Speaker 1: airport during Thanksgiving week. One other I don't want to

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Speaker 1: sound like Tony Korneiser here and talk to you about

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Speaker 1: my travel pet piece, but I'm gonna make one pet

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Speaker 1: peeve that I think all of you will agree with,

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Speaker 1: and that is Hotel lotion all right, I you know,

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Speaker 1: get dry hands. And you know, like, is it a

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Speaker 1: rule at every hotel, whether you're talking the nicest hotel

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Speaker 1: you can come up with, or your you know, your

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Speaker 1: your sort of highway motel, you know, a courtyard or

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Speaker 1: something like that, is it a rule that everybody has

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Speaker 1: to water down their lotions? Like, no matter what what

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Speaker 1: you buy in CVS is never as watery, no matter

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Speaker 1: the brand you buy, whether it's generic or not, it's

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Speaker 1: always watered down every single hotel. It's almost like a

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Speaker 1: running joke. You feel like why, why is why this

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Speaker 1: lotiony looking water coming out of their thing? And it

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Speaker 1: is it is like it is not mattered the hotel.

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Speaker 1: It is not mad to the chain. And I would

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Speaker 1: just say to you, some of you lotion companies out there,

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Speaker 1: your good name, some of you probably for advertising purposes,

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Speaker 1: give it away, but are you telling it, you know,

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Speaker 1: to these hotels, And I think they all just dilute

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Speaker 1: them to stretch it out even further. Anyway, it's becoming

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Speaker 1: a pet peeve. And I realized it when had my

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Speaker 1: home lotion here, no more dry hands and it wasn't

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Speaker 1: watery anyway. I know that's a bizarre, But in that

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Speaker 1: what podcasts are for, right, You're supposed to air bizarre grievances, right,

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Speaker 1: So I was going to do that. But in all seriousness,

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Speaker 1: let me give you a rundown of this episode. Number one.

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Speaker 1: My guest is Ann apple Bomb. I'm going to guess

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Speaker 1: some of you are subscribers to The Atlantic, and if

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Speaker 1: you are, you know who Anne Applebomb is. I think

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Speaker 1: she's one of the best journalists out there when it

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Speaker 1: comes to expertise on Europe, particularly Eastern Europe. What's happening

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Speaker 1: are what is Russia up to? She's author of a

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Speaker 1: book that's come out in the last year, including a

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Speaker 1: new paperback version of it called Autocracy inc. Full disclosure.

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Speaker 1: We planned this interview a couple months ago. It just

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Speaker 1: happened that we were able to talk on Wednesday, and

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Speaker 1: it's the day that something leaked out. Whether it was

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Speaker 1: an intentional leak to sort of start to change the

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Speaker 1: headlines from Epstein and other stuff, or it was an

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Speaker 1: accidental leak or a leak by the Russians to try

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Speaker 1: to create an illusion of peace that is coming. But

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Speaker 1: the leaked potential supposed peace deal that the United States

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Speaker 1: and that the White House seemed to say to Axios

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Speaker 1: that they were going to try to jam Ukraine with

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Speaker 1: and get them to agree to it. The proposal is

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Speaker 1: a joke for what it's worth. Now, when I interviewed Anne,

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Speaker 1: we didn't know many of the details. To her credit,

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Speaker 1: she sort of foreshadowed what she assumed it would be there,

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Speaker 1: the maximalist position. If Russia is not allowing. If Ukraine

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Speaker 1: in the room, they were going to have a maximalist position,

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Speaker 1: and they know that the Trump administration, which does want

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Speaker 1: to have a separate relationship with Russia on other issues,

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Speaker 1: is anxious to have that relationship, and with it comes

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Speaker 1: the attempt to do this. But as you'll hear in

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Speaker 1: the interview, this does feel like the beginning of Trump

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Speaker 1: just trying to get out of having to deal with

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Speaker 1: this anymore, that he'll throw up his hands and say,

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Speaker 1: nobody wants peace. I'm walking away, And in many ways

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Speaker 1: we've already walked away. You know the Ian Bremer's newsletter

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Speaker 1: G Zero. I'm a big fan of that newsletter. It's

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Speaker 1: a free newsletter. I encourage you to go check it

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Speaker 1: out and find it. I think it's a very smart

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Speaker 1: sort of internet almost like an international Political Science newsletter.

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Speaker 1: They had a nice chart in there showing funding to

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Speaker 1: Ukraine for the war, basically US funding and European funding,

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Speaker 1: and it's been pretty much dollar for dollar up through

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, American funding European funding. Twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 1: American funding is almost down to zero. It's not zero.

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Speaker 1: We have sent a few things to them, and European

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Speaker 1: funding has never been bigger. But still the combined is

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Speaker 1: only about sixty percent of what Ukraine was getting during

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Speaker 1: before Trump took office a second time. So the United

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Speaker 1: States has already financially walked away from this war. The

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Speaker 1: question is going to be whether and because the US

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Speaker 1: actually isn't funding much of Ukraine's war anymore, they're providing

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Speaker 1: important intelligence. In some ways, the US doesn't have the

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Speaker 1: leverage that it even had a year ago on Zelenski,

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Speaker 1: or the leverage that they even had six months ago

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Speaker 1: on Zelenski, because at this point the Europeans, to their credit,

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Speaker 1: have essentially tried to help on their own the Ukrainians,

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Speaker 1: and they, like I said, they have filled the gap

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Speaker 1: up to about sixty percent of what the combined total

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Speaker 1: funding was. And so the leverage is not the United

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Speaker 1: States doesn't have the leverage over Zelensky that it did

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Speaker 1: in some ways, the Europeans do. And I don't know

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Speaker 1: if the US has the same leverage over the Europeans

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Speaker 1: that we had. You could argue that Donald Trump's plan

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Speaker 1: to make Europe pay for this is working and with it, though,

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Speaker 1: comes diminished influence from US, you know, as the leader

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Speaker 1: of the free world, because we are not a party

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Speaker 1: to this, we don't want to be in. Well, then

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Speaker 1: we're also not going to be able to have the

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Speaker 1: same amount of leverage. Look, we had a ton of

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Speaker 1: leverage over Israel to force them into that peace plan.

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Speaker 1: We do not have the same leverage over Ukraine a

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Speaker 1: year ago we did, but we do not have that

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Speaker 1: same level of leverage now. So this thing is not

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Speaker 1: going anywhere, and it does look a lot more likely

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Speaker 1: that this is. You know, he will he will just

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Speaker 1: simply walk away from it because he doesn't want to

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Speaker 1: be a party to something that he thinks he can't

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Speaker 1: deal with. And he's and you know, it's unless he

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Speaker 1: accepts the premise that Putin's been playing for him for

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Speaker 1: a fool and he refuses to accept that premise. I

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Speaker 1: think we know that this is unfortunately going to continue

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Speaker 1: to drag on into some version of a stalemate. But

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Speaker 1: our conversation gets deeper than that. We obviously talk about

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Speaker 1: this deal, talk about what could happen, where's this headed,

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Speaker 1: the rise of authoritarianism Saudi Arabia. We get into the

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Speaker 1: Venezuela issue and what our aggressiveness towards Venezuela, what message

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Speaker 1: that is sending to China in regards to Taiwan, or

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Speaker 1: frankly putin in regards to what he's trying to do

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Speaker 1: in essentially reconfigure the old Soviet Union. So we get

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Speaker 1: into all of those things. I think it's a so conversation,

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Speaker 1: but a good conversation. And we hadn't touched on this

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Speaker 1: topic in a while, and hey, that everything. The confluence

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Speaker 1: of events made this I think, top of mind, and

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Speaker 1: I hope you will give it the attention that it deserves.

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Speaker 1: But it is a you know, it's interesting when we

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Speaker 1: were talking about the issue with Venezuela, and I think

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Speaker 1: I've expressed this to you before. Personally, I'm sort of

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Speaker 1: very torn. I want to see him go. This is

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Speaker 1: a country. This guy's violating democratic norms. He he was

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Speaker 1: ousted in a free and fair election, and he's refused

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Speaker 1: to go. And if I and if the if the

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Speaker 1: president of the United States laid out the goal and

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Speaker 1: the rationale for doing what we're doing in an attempt

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Speaker 1: to sort of essentially protect and defend democracy in our hemisphere,

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Speaker 1: I think you could. You know, look it, I think

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Speaker 1: you could. You certainly would have a bit more credibility

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Speaker 1: in the world stage for what we are doing. The

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Speaker 1: problem I have is the fact that he's lying about

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Speaker 1: the rationale for doing what he's doing. Right, we don't

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Speaker 1: have a fentanyl crisis coming out of Venezuela. That isn't

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Speaker 1: the issue. You know this this we are there for

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Speaker 1: other reasons. But we're claiming we're there for another reason,

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Speaker 1: which isn't true. And that's you know, when you lie

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Speaker 1: or mislead a democracy into why you're going into a

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Speaker 1: military intervention, you know that usually doesn't go well. You

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Speaker 1: know it. We only have our own history to look

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Speaker 1: at that. And every time we meddle in Latin America

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Speaker 1: this way, it always bites us in the ass. And

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Speaker 1: so that certainly is of concern. But if we were

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Speaker 1: a nation that cared about expanding and protecting democracy around

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Speaker 1: the world, we'd be much more involved and invested in

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Speaker 1: Ukraine's success at beating back the Russians, and then maybe

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Speaker 1: we would have a better rationale for what we're doing

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Speaker 1: in Venezuela. But right now now we are not in

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Speaker 1: We are not trying to protect democracy in Venezuela. That

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Speaker 1: may be, that may be an outcome that comes with

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Speaker 1: this decision to intervene, but it is not the primary

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Speaker 1: reason we're doing it, and that I think that is

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Speaker 1: unfortunate and it will only increase the amount of mistrust

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Speaker 1: it out there. And of course Donald Trump has a

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Speaker 1: has a has a base that doesn't want intervention in

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Speaker 1: foreign wars, which is why I think this Venezuela situation

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Speaker 1: is more fraught politically than I think this administration appreciates.

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Speaker 1: I think they think that they can basically play the

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Speaker 1: deal with Venezuela like they're playing the game of risk

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Speaker 1: and we're the big bully in our hemisphere, and we'll

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Speaker 1: just do this because this is this is right there

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Speaker 1: on our side of the of the game board. It

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Speaker 1: doesn't always work that well. It doesn't always work out

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Speaker 1: that way. So when you look at what we're doing

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Speaker 1: with Venezuela and what we're not doing with Ukraine, right,

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Speaker 1: We certainly don't have any kagent ideological explanation for our

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Speaker 1: lack of intervention in one place and threatened intervention in

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Speaker 1: another place. So again, that's that side of that conversation.

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Speaker 1: I want to get through a bit of a like

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Speaker 1: I said this before, a bit of a notebook slew

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Speaker 1: of notebook items there. We've seen an additional round of

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Speaker 1: polling now post election day twenty twenty five. If you

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Speaker 1: recall the last time I delved into a poll with

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Speaker 1: you guys, it was the NBC News poll, and it

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Speaker 1: was a poll that came out before the election day

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. And it's worth noting how precient that

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Speaker 1: poll was. It had Democrats with an eight point generic

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Speaker 1: ballot advantage on the generic congressional ballot. No other poll

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Speaker 1: had shown anything like that. Now, pretty much every pole

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Speaker 1: that's come out has shown Democrats with anywhere from a

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Speaker 1: five to a Maris Pole chose a fourteen point lead.

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Speaker 1: I think that's a super outlier, but there are other

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Speaker 1: polls out there that show it consistently five six, seven.

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Speaker 1: It shows you that eight point number was not an outlier.

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Speaker 1: There were some people who were trying to argue that

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Speaker 1: was an outlier, that was not an outlier, And I

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Speaker 1: think we saw there was another part of that poll

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Speaker 1: that I failed to make a big deal out of that. Frankly,

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Speaker 1: I meant to. I'd written it down in my notes,

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Speaker 1: but I didn't bring it up, and I should have.

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Speaker 1: And that was sort of one of the ways the

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Speaker 1: heart McInturff one of the regular questions that the NBC

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Speaker 1: News poll has had on that poll going back some

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Speaker 1: fIF I want to say, we started doing this in

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Speaker 1: the eight cycle, maybe six cycle. Is on a scale

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Speaker 1: of one to ten, how you know, how interested are

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Speaker 1: you in this election, in the next election? Interest in

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Speaker 1: the election? And what was remarkable in this in this

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Speaker 1: poll here in twenty twenty five is the number was

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Speaker 1: already in the mid fifties. And this was asking about

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Speaker 1: the twenty twenty six midterms a year out, and it

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Speaker 1: was in the mid fifties. Normally that number was in

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Speaker 1: the forties four years before, and it's regular. This was

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Speaker 1: sort of a It being in the mid fifties felt

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Speaker 1: like a summer of an election year number, not a

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Speaker 1: fall of the year before. Well, what did that foreshadow?

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Speaker 1: The massive turnout advantage that Democrats ended up showcasing. On

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Speaker 1: election day twenty twenty five, we saw New Jersey. I

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Speaker 1: continue to go back to the New Jersey example. You know,

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Speaker 1: Virginia you can write off as a federal worker issue.

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Speaker 1: New Jersey where there was a not so popular two

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Speaker 1: term Democratic governor being replaced. It was term limited. In

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Speaker 1: the Republican nomine he got more votes this time than

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Speaker 1: he got four years ago, and he ended up losing

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Speaker 1: by thirteen percentage points. That is a flashing red light

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Speaker 1: for the Republicans. And I will say this, So we've

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Speaker 1: gotten these two new generics out there, Marist and I

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Speaker 1: know the Marist folks well. They they they are very

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Speaker 1: they're very careful about what they they They're very transparent

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Speaker 1: about their methodology, and so their numbers can be a

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Speaker 1: bit more fluid. And academic polsters in general, uh get

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Speaker 1: a little skittish about about waiting based on different things.

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Speaker 1: They very much want to have a more hands off

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Speaker 1: approach and to some of the decision making that they

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Speaker 1: make on weight. So the Marist will fluctuate more. And

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Speaker 1: that's why it's always important don't compare two different polls

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Speaker 1: to each other. Compare a Polster trend line to themselves,

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Speaker 1: and so the trend line fits the same trend line.

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Speaker 1: We're seeing what what marists showed a month ago is

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Speaker 1: now is now moved in the democratic direction. Well, guess

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Speaker 1: what every pole has moved in the democratic direction. You've

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Speaker 1: seen a consistent rise in Trump's disapproval rating, a consistent

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Speaker 1: rise in the spread between Democrats and Republicans, and the

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Speaker 1: generic ballot. They're clearly something has turned here. It looks

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Speaker 1: like it's mostly economy based more than anything else. Right.

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Speaker 1: You know, you may think it's about Epstein, or you

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Speaker 1: may think it's about some of these other things. Ultimately,

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Speaker 1: I think the great lesson that everybody I should go

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Speaker 1: back and take away from twenty twenty four is it

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Speaker 1: Ultimately it's about prices, and it's about cost of living.

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Speaker 1: And the cost of living has been skyrocketing everywhere, right,

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Speaker 1: and the latest issue is electric bills. And the fact

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Speaker 1: is you can't you know, the White House is nervous.

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Speaker 1: That's why they wiped away the food tariffs. That's nice

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Speaker 1: that maybe they can sort of slow down the rise

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Speaker 1: in grocery prices, but the electric but the rise in

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Speaker 1: electric bills around the country is going to eat into

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Speaker 1: whatever tariff savings he creates there. And of course he

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Speaker 1: spent his speech browbeating the Fed. And if the Fed

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Speaker 1: lowers interest rates too quickly, and I think there's a

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Speaker 1: real divide on this because going to imagine the Fed

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Speaker 1: lower's interest rates and Trump turns out two thousand dollars checks,

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Speaker 1: we're going to be in twenty twenty one all over again.

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Speaker 1: And remember what happened in twenty twenty one. That's when

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Speaker 1: we had another surge of inflation that essentially ruined Biden's presidency. Right,

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Speaker 1: he could not get out from under that initial inflation

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Speaker 1: surge where the market was flooded with easy money and

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Speaker 1: lower interest rates plus a tear Freebate check all would

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Speaker 1: flow extra easy money in there. And I promise you

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Speaker 1: prices aren't going to go down, just the opposite, prices

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Speaker 1: are going to go up. So he is not This

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Speaker 1: economy is not in a good situation. There's not many

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Speaker 1: levers he can pull here. And yet one thing you

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Speaker 1: know about Donald Trump is he's always going to try

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Speaker 1: to pull a lever, and in some ways, the more

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Speaker 1: levers he tries to pull, the more he makes things worse.

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Speaker 1: If you need an example of that. Just look at

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Speaker 1: what he did with redistricting. He has now put his

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Speaker 1: party in a worse place right by bullying all these

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Speaker 1: legislatures to do this, He's put his party now in

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Speaker 1: a worst place if Texas, if this map does, if

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Speaker 1: this map doesn't get upheld by the US Supreme Court.

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Speaker 1: But I want to go back through these because there

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Speaker 1: was another poll that was out that I think gives

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Speaker 1: you a sense of how to read some of these

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Speaker 1: generic ballot numbers, the Marquette Law School poll. I'm a

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Speaker 1: big fan of the Marquette poll. It's a very he's

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Speaker 1: a steady pollster there, Charles Franklin. Anyway, it's a very

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Speaker 1: good poll, very consistent. One of the things, by the

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Speaker 1: way he does quarterly is probably the most thorough examination

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Speaker 1: on the public opinion side of the public's opinions of

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Speaker 1: the Supreme Court, for what it's worth. So it is

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Speaker 1: it is a poll that I care about a lot. Well,

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Speaker 1: they came out and their generic ballot among just registered

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Speaker 1: voters was forty nine forty four the Democrats. Then he said,

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Speaker 1: among those certain to vote, the Democratic lead expands to

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Speaker 1: nine points. More importantly, in that Poul Trump's approval rating

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Speaker 1: among independent voters is below thirty percent. So look, there's

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Speaker 1: already a disadvantage for Republicans when it comes to these

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Speaker 1: off your elections, as Democrats have the more regular voters.

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Speaker 1: Democrats have the voters that are definitely going to show up,

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Speaker 1: which is why you see those more certain to vote,

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Speaker 1: the Democratic lead expands. So if you're the Republicans and

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Speaker 1: you're trying to hold Congress, you know, among registered voters,

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Speaker 1: you're hoping that the number is you know, you don't

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Speaker 1: want a separation on the generic ballot of more than one,

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Speaker 1: two or three points at this point, because you know,

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Speaker 1: among likely voters it's going to basically whatever the spread

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Speaker 1: is among registers, it's basically going to double. And so,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think the way these congressional districts are gerrymandered,

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Speaker 1: Democrats probably have to be ahead somewhere between six and

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Speaker 1: seven points on the national generic ballot in order to

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Speaker 1: win control of the House. Maybe if the Texas map

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Speaker 1: doesn't get upheld, you know, and let's say Virginia still

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Speaker 1: gets aggressive and decides to redistrict and helps out the

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Speaker 1: Democratic numbers, or maybe that number goes down to four

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Speaker 1: or five. But The point is we're already in territory

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Speaker 1: where the House is gone. Right. Anything north of six

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Speaker 1: points the Republicans have lost the House. And as you

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Speaker 1: keep creeping up, then suddenly you start to see that

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Speaker 1: the Senate is in play. There's a reason results matter

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Speaker 1: more than promises, just like there's a reason Morgan and

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Speaker 1: Morgan is America's largest injury law firm. For the last

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Speaker 1: thirty five years, they've recovered twenty five billion dollars for

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Speaker 1: more than half a million clients. It includes cases where

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Speaker 1: insurance companies offered next to nothing, just hoping to get

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Speaker 1: away with paying as little as possible. Morgan and Morgan

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Speaker 1: fought back ended up winning millions. In fact, in Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 1: one client was awarded twenty six million dollars, which was

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Speaker 1: a staggering forty times the amount that the insurance company

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Speaker 1: originally offered. That original offer six hundred and fifty thousand

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Speaker 1: dollars twenty six million, six hundred fifty thousand dollars. So

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Speaker 1: with more than a thousand lawyers across the country, they

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Speaker 1: know how to deliver for everyday people. If you're injured,

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Speaker 1: you need a lawyer, you need somebody to get your

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Speaker 1: back check out for the People dot Com slash podcast

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Speaker 1: or dial Pound Law Pound five to nine Law on

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Speaker 1: your cell phone. And remember all law firms are not

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Speaker 1: the same, so check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee

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Speaker 1: is free unless they win. One of the talks I

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Speaker 1: did a few days ago was on with another another

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Speaker 1: analyst who was very involved in the one of the

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Speaker 1: Virginia races, the ag race, and you know, I want

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Speaker 1: to protect we were in an off the record setting,

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Speaker 1: so I just want to share the analysis. But the

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Speaker 1: basic analysis of why did j Jones win? Did he

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Speaker 1: how did he win? Well? He won because the number

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Speaker 1: of split ticket voters in Virginia was about six or

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Speaker 1: seven percent. Yes, I know what I just did, six

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Speaker 1: seven have at it, everybody, But it was somewhere in

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Speaker 1: the six to seven percent range here and it is

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Speaker 1: it is interesting because she she won by fifteen points

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Speaker 1: and Jones was able to win by five or six

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Speaker 1: So you start to see what that range is and

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Speaker 1: if you applied this, so Susan Collins in twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: overperformed by about six to seven points, indicating a split

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Speaker 1: ticket vote in Maine of about six or seven percentage

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Speaker 1: points of the electorate. So you know, we've all been

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Speaker 1: trying to calculate what is the maximum number of voters

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Speaker 1: who might actually be vacillating between the two parties. Right,

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Speaker 1: Most of the differences these days are which party turns

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Speaker 1: out more of their voters. That's that's the difference between

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Speaker 1: why you know, Democrats may do better in Ohio in

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Speaker 1: a midterm year and Republicans do better in Ohio in

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Speaker 1: a presidential year. But the question is who's the persuadable number, right,

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Speaker 1: who are the voters? You know, we used to have

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Speaker 1: fifteen twenty five percent of voters that would be split

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Speaker 1: ticket voters. We're nowhere near that. But it's interesting to

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Speaker 1: me that what you saw in Maine was about six

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Speaker 1: or seven percent on the split ticket side. What we

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Speaker 1: saw in Virginia five years same sort of six or seven.

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Speaker 1: So just keep that in mind, right, And so what

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Speaker 1: does that mean? So let's say you have this generic

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Speaker 1: ballot sitting in the where Democrats are up north of

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Speaker 1: six points, which I would argue is what their advantage was.

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Speaker 1: It looks like in the off year elections, essentially anything

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Speaker 1: between any state legislative district that Donald Trump carried by

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Speaker 1: five points or less Democrats won in Virginia. Now they

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Speaker 1: only won I think one seat where Trump carried a

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Speaker 1: legislative district by somewhere between five and ten points. So

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Speaker 1: let's assume that sort of five point buffer. You apply that.

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Speaker 1: So what that would mean is that it makes Ohio

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Speaker 1: Senate a coin flip. And then you already have a

431
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:17,719
Speaker 1: bit of breeze at Shared Brown's back because Democratic turnout advantages.

432
00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 1: So that's a that becomes a coin flip race. It

433
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 1: is a winnable race. Not saying he's gonna win it, it

434
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:28,160
Speaker 1: is a winnable race. Then if you apply the wellther

435
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 1: six to seven percent of potential split ticket voters, all right,

436
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,360
Speaker 1: then suddenly you say, okay, what would that do numbers

437
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,959
Speaker 1: wise in a Texas, numbers wise in an Iowa, numbers

438
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 1: wise in a Kansas although there's no Kansas series Kansas

439
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:46,360
Speaker 1: Senate candidate yet, or numbers wise in a Mississippi, And

440
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 1: that's where you start to see where, well, I don't

441
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:52,159
Speaker 1: think Democrats in a presidential year could win a Mississippi

442
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:54,239
Speaker 1: Senate race, could win an Iowa Senate race, could win

443
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 1: a Kansas Senate race, and probably not a Texas center

444
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 1: race though though I think Texas is is a bit

445
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: more fluid than we fully appreciate. In a midterm year,

446
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: they can, right, you apply the five essentially a generic

447
00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,400
Speaker 1: five point advantage, and then on top of that, right,

448
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 1: you have another six to seven percent of voters who

449
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 1: are willing to split their ticket. If you accept the

450
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:21,720
Speaker 1: premise that this is essentially what we've seen in any

451
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 1: competitive race, at least in our new Trump polarized era,

452
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:30,879
Speaker 1: that does put Kansas, Alaska, Mississippi, all of that on

453
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 1: the radar. Which is why I think right now I

454
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 1: go back. I've never been more bullish on democrats chances

455
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 1: to do well in the midterms, and I am this week.

456
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 1: I've been a bit skeptical all year because you know,

457
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,679
Speaker 1: there's because of a few things. One is just the

458
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 1: simple and popularity of the Democratic brand. But that was meaningless,

459
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 1: I mean it turned out to be meaningless. Right. The

460
00:26:56,040 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 1: other big, the other big sort of what do you

461
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 1: call it rule these days of the Trump era is

462
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 1: we just vote against right. We don't like whoever's in power,

463
00:27:15,040 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 1: and so we are voting out parties in power when

464
00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,880
Speaker 1: we get a chance. We are voting out incumbents presidents

465
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 1: when we get a chance. Right, we've done it, I

466
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 1: mean to think about it. We've essentially fired two incumbent

467
00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:30,680
Speaker 1: administrations back to back, and if you count Trump's victory

468
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 1: over Clinton, that's three in a row on that front.

469
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 1: The House flipped in eighteen, The House flipped again in

470
00:27:37,560 --> 00:27:41,879
Speaker 1: twenty two, Right, so the Senate flipped in twenty The

471
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 1: Senate flipped again in twenty two. Excuse me, the Senate

472
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 1: flipped again, not in twenty two and twenty. Then it

473
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:50,679
Speaker 1: flipped again in twenty four. You notice here, how it?

474
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 1: You know? On that front. So I do think that

475
00:27:56,680 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 1: if Democrats can't use this moment to find good candidates

476
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 1: to run in Kansas, good candidates to run in Alaska,

477
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 1: big money to donate to places like Mississippi, Iowa Senate,

478
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:15,200
Speaker 1: Kansas Senate, Alaska Senate, they can't do it at this moment,

479
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 1: then I don't know when they're going to do it.

480
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 1: This is their opportunity. The polling's never look better. And

481
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:25,920
Speaker 1: I'm a big believer in the Haley barbarisms. I love

482
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 1: my old Haley barbarisms, and one of my favorite is

483
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:30,880
Speaker 1: good gets better and bad gets worse. And I think

484
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 1: we're in a situation where bad is going to get

485
00:28:33,040 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 1: worse for Trump, right, because he's going to keep trying

486
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 1: to fix it, and the stuff he does to fix

487
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:42,959
Speaker 1: it will only divide his party, like he's already divided

488
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 1: his party on whether to even do these rebate checks.

489
00:28:45,280 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 1: He thinks he can do this without Congress. Good luck, right,

490
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 1: He's going to get a haircut when the tariff ruling

491
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 1: comes down. So all of these things, I think that

492
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 1: he's likely, his instinct to meddle and to think he

493
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 1: can somehow change the weather is likely to take a

494
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 1: bad situation and make it worse for him on this front.

495
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 1: And even though do you have a Democratic party that

496
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 1: doesn't like its leadership, there's a total vacuum there. There

497
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 1: is such enthusiasm at pushing back against Trump. There's such

498
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 1: a belief that, hey, this stuff is working. Right, the

499
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 1: courts ruled against them in Texas, voters got behind doing

500
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 1: something that I didn't think was as you know, I

501
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,719
Speaker 1: don't think we fully appreciate how impressive the feat was.

502
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 1: With Gavin Newsom in California. You start to see where

503
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 1: good gets better on that front, but we're still in

504
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 1: the in fairness, we're still in the wake of what was.

505
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 1: This has just been a really bad November for Trump,

506
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 1: the Republican brand, Republicans in general. You know, it is

507
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 1: every month going to be like this between now and

508
00:29:55,280 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 1: next November. That's unlikely, right, but it is if this

509
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 1: economy continues to be this uneven, and especially if we

510
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 1: continue with this AI bubble talk, and there's a lot

511
00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 1: of conversations out there that we are this is looking

512
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 1: a lot more like nineteen eight, ninety eight, nineteen ninety nine,

513
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 1: which was basically the first time the Internet bubble completely popped.

514
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 1: You know, as I joke, well, somebody please tell me

515
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 1: which one of these AI companies is pets dot com.

516
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:29,840
Speaker 1: And there is certainly that hanging over the head. And

517
00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:32,880
Speaker 1: so if even that doesn't go well, then that turns people,

518
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 1: even those that have a little bit of money, will

519
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 1: suddenly be feeling sour about about how about how Trump

520
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:42,560
Speaker 1: is handling this economy. One more thing I want to

521
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 1: get to before we get to the interview with Ann Applebaum.

522
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 1: And by the way, I also will have my college

523
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 1: football preview. I got a few things to say about

524
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 1: the updated college football playoff ranking. Says you might you

525
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 1: might think, and I'm going to deal with a few,

526
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 1: quite a few questions. I want to just end on

527
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 1: California governor. We just got a new candidate jumping in

528
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 1: the race, Tom Steyer. You may remember him as a

529
00:31:04,600 --> 00:31:08,200
Speaker 1: climate change activist who ran for president, kind of self funder.

530
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: You know, Stier is a guy who doesn't look like

531
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 1: he ever laughs. He is always serious, borderline a little

532
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 1: bit angry, and he's and I think he takes I

533
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 1: think he takes his positions very seriously. He takes politics

534
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 1: very seriously. He's willing to spend his money as a

535
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:35,239
Speaker 1: to do these things. But there's you know, there's I

536
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 1: don't think you can be dour all the time. You

537
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 1: have to have some sonny in you somewhere, right, you know,

538
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 1: I think the key we've all you know, you heard

539
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 1: crystalis and I discussed this quite a bit during the

540
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 1: election night live stream that we did. You know, one

541
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 1: of mom Donnie's superpowers is his optimism and the constant

542
00:31:52,800 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 1: smile on his face. So you know, you've got to

543
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 1: project some optimism with voters. And you know Styr has

544
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:03,080
Speaker 1: been in this dog sort of dark place, dark place

545
00:32:03,120 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 1: about climate change. Right, the end is coming sooner than

546
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 1: we think. Dark about democracy. He inserted himself a bit

547
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:14,200
Speaker 1: into the referendum campaign to do the reredissecting in California.

548
00:32:14,640 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 1: It was an insertion that how many great Gavin Newsom

549
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 1: folks appreciated. But look, you know why he got in

550
00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 1: because this has been I have to say so far,

551
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 1: the development of California governor's race is one of the

552
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 1: big head scratchers to me. This is in nineteen ninety one,

553
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 1: when all of these big time Democrats decided that George H. W.

554
00:32:35,640 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 1: Bush wasn't beatable in the nineteen ninety two general election,

555
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 1: people like the gut part Out Gore, Bill Bradley, Jay Rockefeller,

556
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 1: Sam Nunn, all these supposed rising stars of the early

557
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 1: nineties all decided not to run. And the people that

558
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 1: did run were nicknamed the Seven Dwarfs. And it was

559
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton, it was Paul Songiz had Doug Wilder in

560
00:32:58,920 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 1: that race, you had bought carry in that race. I know,

561
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:05,920
Speaker 1: I'm leaving Tom Harkin was in that race, but collectively

562
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 1: that crew was because there was no star power at

563
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 1: the time. Bill Clinton wasn't a star. Then Bill Clinton

564
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 1: ended up sticking out as like the best political athlete

565
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 1: on stage with a whole bunch of sort of Tier

566
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 1: two senators and governors who showed themselves up and I

567
00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 1: think helped catapult him, to quick start him. At the time.

568
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:28,640
Speaker 1: I remember a debate I believe it was on PBS

569
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 1: the first time they all appeared together, and Bill Clinton

570
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 1: was the sort of the clear star of this field.

571
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 1: But in general it was treated like the Seven Dwars.

572
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 1: That's kind of how I feel about the current makeup

573
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 1: of this California governor's race. Here's here's an open seat

574
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:53,920
Speaker 1: for California governor. That where you get to be the

575
00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 1: governor of the fourth largest economy in the world. It

576
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 1: is as important of a position. I think it's you know,

577
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 1: New York City mayor's probably slightly more prominent on the

578
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 1: international stage because of New York City's prominent, But California

579
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 1: governors probably New York City maybe a harder pr job.

580
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:17,239
Speaker 1: California Governor's just a harder job, especially these days. You know,

581
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:19,720
Speaker 1: it's weird. It's you know, you think a single party

582
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 1: state makes it easy. It's all these one party states

583
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 1: are still two party states, meaning there's sort of two

584
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 1: wings of the one party that fight each other. I mean,

585
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 1: Texas is kind of a three party state. Right, you

586
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:31,879
Speaker 1: have the Democrats is one party, and then you have

587
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:34,359
Speaker 1: two wings of the Republican Party that are at war

588
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:38,840
Speaker 1: with each other. Essentially the Ken Paxton Dan Patrick wing

589
00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 1: that Greg Abbott is suddenly now on one side. And

590
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 1: then you have sort of the old bush Rick Perry

591
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 1: John Cornyan wing of the party a bit more pro business.

592
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,800
Speaker 1: And what's interesting that wing worked with the Democrats to

593
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:53,400
Speaker 1: elect the last speaker of the Texas Legislation. But the

594
00:34:53,400 --> 00:34:56,200
Speaker 1: point is these one party states, you know politics, you

595
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:58,719
Speaker 1: know the expression politics of poors a vacuum. Even in

596
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:01,880
Speaker 1: the one party states, there's always an opposition. Sometimes the

597
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 1: opposition comes from an outside force. In Oklahoma, it's not

598
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 1: the Democrats or a slice of the Republicans, it's the

599
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 1: it's the tribes who are very wealthy, and they will

600
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 1: fund primary foes, they will fund candidates to keep sort

601
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:18,719
Speaker 1: of as the quote check if you will on the

602
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 1: on the Republican leadership in that state, and in California

603
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 1: you do. You pretty much. You have a very liberal,

604
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 1: progressive wing of the party and then you have a

605
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:31,080
Speaker 1: very sort of pro business democratic wing of the party.

606
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 1: And collectively it's given Democrats this illusion of a super majority,

607
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: but it actually makes it quite difficult to govern. But

608
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 1: it has been interesting to me how few big time

609
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 1: rising stars have wanted to jump into this race because

610
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:55,840
Speaker 1: it isn't you know, it's a you know, this doesn't

611
00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 1: come open very often, and you know, you've had Jerry

612
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:02,279
Speaker 1: Brown and Gavin Newsom essentially governor of California for the

613
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 1: last sixteen years, and they've kind of, you know, they've

614
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 1: kind of been hovering over democratic politics in California for

615
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 1: the entire twenty first century. This is the first time

616
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 1: that page is going to turn. Now. I understood that

617
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 1: with the referendum and the re redistricting, that kind of

618
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 1: whatever jockeying was taking place on when it came to

619
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 1: the governor's race sort of got put on pause while

620
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 1: all efforts went in there. But we're still I mean,

621
00:36:31,120 --> 00:36:33,720
Speaker 1: let's just be honest, this thing is lack and star power.

622
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 1: You have Jave Ebreserah, the former congressman, former state attorney

623
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:40,840
Speaker 1: general who's one of his closest advisors, just got indicted.

624
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 1: And it's an investigation. You can't just chuck this up

625
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 1: to a Trump investigation. It's an investigation that started during

626
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 1: the Biden Justice Department and continue during the Trump Justice Department.

627
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 1: Basically a dummy job, right, you know, sort of using

628
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:58,160
Speaker 1: Bessera's name and a position to you know, there's no

629
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:02,799
Speaker 1: evidence of Besserah was a part of this, but I

630
00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 1: think it it tarnishes him. Whether he thinks that's fair

631
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 1: or not, I think it does. You've had somebody I've

632
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 1: interviewed on this podcast do I find to be one

633
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:15,720
Speaker 1: of the more interesting characters in this race, Steve Klubeck,

634
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 1: who is of course made his money doing time shares.

635
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 1: He is a big personality to say the least, and

636
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 1: you know, in this environment, he's one of those that

637
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:29,239
Speaker 1: if he caught fire, it wouldn't shock me, And if

638
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 1: he ended up only getting two percent come primary day,

639
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 1: it wouldn't shock me. Katie Porter had the had that

640
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 1: well publicized meltdown when a journalist asked her a few

641
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 1: simple questions where she couldn't handle basic questions, and then

642
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 1: of course the floodgates open. Exporter staffers just you know,

643
00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:55,040
Speaker 1: unloaded story after story about what a terrible boss the

644
00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:59,360
Speaker 1: former congresswoman is. I do think you know, that probably

645
00:37:59,400 --> 00:38:04,960
Speaker 1: has ended her ability to become one of the top two.

646
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 1: And remember this California governor's race is a top two situation,

647
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 1: so everybody runs in the same ballot. There's really only

648
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 1: two prominent Republicans that are getting some attention. You have

649
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:22,439
Speaker 1: this Riverside County Sheriff, Chad Bianco, very very hardcore, sort

650
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 1: of more of a MAGA guy. And then you have

651
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 1: Steve Hilton, who's the British transplant as a British accent

652
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:31,720
Speaker 1: and everything, but he's a US citizen. He's been running,

653
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: he was a Fox commentator, he was a former advisor

654
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:38,520
Speaker 1: to David Cameron when he was Prime Minister of the UK.

655
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 1: I hadn't really taken his candidacy that seriously. Not because

656
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 1: he's not a serious guy. I think he is, but

657
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:49,360
Speaker 1: because I just don't think, and I still am skeptical

658
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 1: that a former British citizen is going to be met

659
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:57,840
Speaker 1: with open arms by a Republican electorate or any electorate

660
00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 1: to become governor of I mean, yes, they embraced Arnold Schwarzenegger,

661
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:06,799
Speaker 1: but Arnold Schwarzenegger, you know, in some ways, was as

662
00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:11,080
Speaker 1: American as they come, and it isn't it wasn't a

663
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:13,399
Speaker 1: recent thing that he became an American to then jump

664
00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:16,799
Speaker 1: in and run for governor on that front. So, but

665
00:39:17,440 --> 00:39:20,240
Speaker 1: what I've noticed is the Democratic field is so weak

666
00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:24,200
Speaker 1: that both Republican candidates in a very with a huge

667
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 1: undecided number have actually been the ones hovering closer to

668
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 1: the top. You've seen different orders by uncle will be

669
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 1: one some of them. Hilton is one, Katie Porter with

670
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:36,839
Speaker 1: her name ideas too, and then everybody else is sort

671
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:41,200
Speaker 1: of below that. So the assumption is some more people

672
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 1: are getting in. I don't consider Stier to be a

673
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:45,840
Speaker 1: big name. He's big money, but I don't know if

674
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 1: he's a big name on that front. And I don't,

675
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:51,919
Speaker 1: like I said, I have some questions about whether he's

676
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:54,879
Speaker 1: just too dour to catch fire. We shall see. By

677
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 1: the way, Tom Styr, I'd look forward to having you

678
00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 1: on the podcast. Steve Elton, I know we've talked about

679
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 1: having you in the podcast. I'm hoping to have you

680
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 1: on soon as well. Then the other though, Shoe that

681
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 1: I think the assumption is, you know, in whispers in

682
00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 1: California circles, is that people are just waiting for Rick Caruso,

683
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:17,880
Speaker 1: who lost the LA Mayor's race four years ago to

684
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:20,839
Speaker 1: Karen Bass. That you know, is he going to run

685
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:23,839
Speaker 1: for mayor, for real for mayor and challenge Karen Bass again,

686
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 1: or is he going to run for governor? And it

687
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:29,080
Speaker 1: really depends on who you talk to out there. I've

688
00:40:29,120 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 1: talked to people who are sure, of course he's running

689
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:32,919
Speaker 1: for governor. Why would he want to run for mayor.

690
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:35,719
Speaker 1: It's a it's a ceremonial job. You don't have as

691
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 1: much power, it's perceived power. And about the only draw

692
00:40:41,560 --> 00:40:44,760
Speaker 1: of being mayor of LA over the next four years

693
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:47,360
Speaker 1: is being mayor of LA during the twenty twenty eight Olympics.

694
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 1: So there's there's some people who swear, no, no, no, no,

695
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:54,359
Speaker 1: he's not He's not going to run for mary. He's

696
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:55,839
Speaker 1: going to run for governor. He's definitely going to run

697
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:59,359
Speaker 1: for governor. I think the field's open for him if

698
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:01,400
Speaker 1: he does run for governor, because you have sort of

699
00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:03,880
Speaker 1: this race to the left right now that is with

700
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 1: Katie Porter, Tom Steyer. There's nobody, I mean, Klubec will

701
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:09,520
Speaker 1: tell you he's trying to hug the center lane. He

702
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 1: calls himself a Bill Clinton Harry read Democrat, which is

703
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 1: his code for saying, I'm a more pro business centrist Democrat,

704
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 1: but it's clear Caruso is going to and that lane

705
00:41:20,680 --> 00:41:24,319
Speaker 1: could be wide open if all of the other Democrats

706
00:41:24,400 --> 00:41:28,600
Speaker 1: are going to play to a more liberal crowd. And

707
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 1: I think some of this are not sure. You have

708
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:32,840
Speaker 1: Antonio Viragoso who's running again. He was kind of the

709
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:37,080
Speaker 1: only seemed like the only candidate that had a shot

710
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 1: at making Gavin Newsom's life miserable when he ran for

711
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:44,120
Speaker 1: governor in twenty eighteen. I actually moderated a debate that

712
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 1: featured both Via Goosa and Gavin Newsom on there, and

713
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:51,600
Speaker 1: they were the only two sparring partners, if you will.

714
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 1: But that was a race that never felt in doubt.

715
00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 1: It was all about whether well with knew some sort

716
00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:01,040
Speaker 1: of you know where is where out is welcome providing

717
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 1: an opening or not, and Knewsom didn't and he ended

718
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 1: up running away. Swawell could be interesting. I don't want

719
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:10,279
Speaker 1: to write him off. He could end up raising a

720
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 1: lot of money. But sitting members of Congress have struggled

721
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:18,000
Speaker 1: in the past in governor's races in California. It's just

722
00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:21,000
Speaker 1: tough because it's tough to have much name id. In

723
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:23,359
Speaker 1: some ways, Katie Porter is benefiting from the fact that

724
00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 1: she ran for the Senate and did run state watch game.

725
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 1: Obviously didn't make the runoff against Adam Schiff, but she

726
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:33,560
Speaker 1: certainly got a little bit of that. But I still

727
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,400
Speaker 1: look at this and I keep thinking there's got to

728
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,200
Speaker 1: be some better, some bigger candidates that are going to

729
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:42,239
Speaker 1: jump in this race. You know, maybe some interesting outsiders

730
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:45,400
Speaker 1: that might jump in. It has been a what I

731
00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 1: would say is a shockingly sleepy race that perhaps gets

732
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 1: more interesting if Rick Caruso ends up jumping in and

733
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 1: then suddenly that might elevate things. But I'll tell you now,

734
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 1: I do think the Republicans have all both of them,

735
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:02,880
Speaker 1: have gotten enough traction where this is going to the

736
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 1: top two is going to be a D N and R.

737
00:43:05,080 --> 00:43:07,560
Speaker 1: I don't think you're going to have two d's or

738
00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:09,879
Speaker 1: make it in the top two anymore. And I think

739
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 1: there was a thought that that's that's where we were headed.

740
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 1: I think there's definitely going to be a D versus

741
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 1: R situation here because of the smaller number of Republicans

742
00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:23,920
Speaker 1: and the increasingly large field of Demo. I mean, if

743
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 1: you're gonna have Swawell in this race, Tom Steyr in

744
00:43:26,320 --> 00:43:30,359
Speaker 1: this race, Katie Porter in this race via Regosa Bessarah

745
00:43:31,080 --> 00:43:33,840
Speaker 1: Klubec is a self funder throwing correct. I mean, you

746
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:35,880
Speaker 1: see where we're going here. That's up to seven Democrats

747
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:39,360
Speaker 1: splitting that vote. If you assume there's thirty to forty

748
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 1: percent of the electorate is going to show up for

749
00:43:41,520 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 1: the Republicans. You see how very quickly that you almost

750
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:48,640
Speaker 1: guarantee that one of the two slots is gonna is

751
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 1: going to go to the Republicans. But just in general

752
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:55,920
Speaker 1: it's been in it's been fascinating to me how we

753
00:43:56,040 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 1: haven't seen more star power try to come into this anyway,

754
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 1: something that I suspect we'll get. We'll start to see

755
00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:09,040
Speaker 1: some movement over the next few weeks and maybe in

756
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:12,360
Speaker 1: and around the holidays you'll start to see some announcements.

757
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,400
Speaker 1: All right, enough from me on the introduction to this.

758
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:18,520
Speaker 1: Let's take a break and when we come back, my

759
00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 1: conversation with the journalists of the Atlantic and an expert

760
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 1: on all things having to do with Eastern Europe in

761
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:33,719
Speaker 1: Central Europe, it is Anne Applebox. This episode of the

762
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 1: Chuck Podcast is brought to you by Wildgrain. Wildgrain is

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790
00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:13,279
Speaker 1: right well, joining me now is one of the journalists

791
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:15,879
Speaker 1: that I always learned something from when I read her

792
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:20,800
Speaker 1: stuff in The Atlantic and Applebomb, and in many ways,

793
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 1: I know what I turned to her for and what

794
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 1: I read her most thoroughly about is whenever she's writing

795
00:46:26,400 --> 00:46:30,520
Speaker 1: about Central and Eastern European and what's going on in

796
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:34,520
Speaker 1: that part of the world specifically. I want to timestamp this.

797
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:39,600
Speaker 1: We are talking midday, Wednesday, November nineteenth, and it's important

798
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:43,799
Speaker 1: to timestamp this because earlier this morning some news leak

799
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:48,840
Speaker 1: that there is a supposed potential piece deal of sorts

800
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:54,279
Speaker 1: being circulated that was I guess negotiated by the President's

801
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 1: personal en voice, Steve Whitcoff with an envoy of the

802
00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 1: Russians and it is now they are supposedly shopping around

803
00:47:02,680 --> 00:47:05,880
Speaker 1: to see if, in the words of the Axios reporting,

804
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:09,520
Speaker 1: essentially can they jam the Ukrainians to take this deal.

805
00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:13,640
Speaker 1: Doesn't seem as if many people know about this deal,

806
00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:16,359
Speaker 1: and if you does have the whiff for what it's

807
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:20,200
Speaker 1: worth of a leak in order to try to turn

808
00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 1: the page on stories perhaps this administration doesn't like on

809
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:26,839
Speaker 1: the front page. That's the cynic in me. But I'm

810
00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:28,759
Speaker 1: not going to make ann Apple bomb day with that

811
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:31,880
Speaker 1: aspect of this story. And is also author of a

812
00:47:31,920 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 1: brand new book, Autocracy inc Right, it's it's new ish.

813
00:47:37,480 --> 00:47:39,600
Speaker 2: It came out in paperback this year, and it has

814
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:40,200
Speaker 2: a new paper.

815
00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, well, and I obviously want to talk about that,

816
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:47,560
Speaker 1: But let's start with I mean, look at any given day,

817
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:50,000
Speaker 1: I would have asked you this, which is, you know,

818
00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:54,840
Speaker 1: will I don't feel like the war between Russia and

819
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:57,840
Speaker 1: Ukraine is going to end even if there's a cease fire.

820
00:47:57,880 --> 00:48:00,400
Speaker 1: But I guess that's the question. Are we I have

821
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:03,920
Speaker 1: a period this year where there is no exchange of

822
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:06,080
Speaker 1: fire between the Russians and the Ukrainians.

823
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:10,400
Speaker 2: So to be clear right now on this, you've just

824
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:15,560
Speaker 2: time stamped the date. One of the things that's been

825
00:48:15,560 --> 00:48:18,000
Speaker 2: true about this war since the very very beginning is

826
00:48:18,040 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 2: still true, and that is that Vladimir Putin has never

827
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:25,880
Speaker 2: said that he will give up his original war aims,

828
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:30,319
Speaker 2: and his original war aims remain the conquest or the

829
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:33,360
Speaker 2: occupation or the or just the control of all of

830
00:48:33,480 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 2: Ukraine and the prevention of the existence of a Ukrainian

831
00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:40,480
Speaker 2: government that would have sovereignty and would be able to

832
00:48:40,560 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 2: make trade deals with the European Union, and would be

833
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:45,400
Speaker 2: able to run the country the way they want to

834
00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:48,760
Speaker 2: run it. And so he's never said that, he's never

835
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:54,759
Speaker 2: acknowledged the legitimous legitimacy of President Zelenski. He's never said

836
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:59,399
Speaker 2: he wants to stop fighting. He's never acknowledged, as I said,

837
00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:02,160
Speaker 2: the right of Ukrainians to be Ukrainians. He's continued to

838
00:49:02,200 --> 00:49:04,320
Speaker 2: talk about them as if they were part of Russia.

839
00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:08,440
Speaker 2: And it seems to me that until he gives that up,

840
00:49:09,200 --> 00:49:11,920
Speaker 2: and it's and he would have to do it publicly,

841
00:49:11,960 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 2: I mean, he would have to do it in some

842
00:49:13,440 --> 00:49:16,640
Speaker 2: way where he says it, then it's very hard to

843
00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 2: see how we get to the end of the war.

844
00:49:20,560 --> 00:49:24,200
Speaker 2: The war will end when the Russians stop fighting and

845
00:49:24,239 --> 00:49:26,920
Speaker 2: when they say we're not going to conquer all of Ukraine,

846
00:49:26,960 --> 00:49:29,279
Speaker 2: and then we can talk about ceasefires, or we can

847
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:31,960
Speaker 2: talk about where the border's going to be, and there

848
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:34,200
Speaker 2: are a lot of other things we could negotiate, but

849
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 2: we haven't reached that moment. What worries me about the

850
00:49:38,040 --> 00:49:40,680
Speaker 2: news that we heard today, aside from the piece of

851
00:49:40,719 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 2: it that you mentioned that it feels a little bit

852
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:46,799
Speaker 2: like let's haul an old story out of the you know,

853
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:48,759
Speaker 2: out of the trash can and put it back on

854
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:51,680
Speaker 2: the front pages so that we can distract from stuff

855
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:54,080
Speaker 2: we don't want to talk about. I mean, what worries

856
00:49:54,120 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 2: me is the is the persistence of the two main negotiators,

857
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 2: and this is Steve Witkoff and Kirol Dimitriev. We know

858
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:06,720
Speaker 2: who Witkof is. He's Trump's friend from the real estate agency,

859
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:11,320
Speaker 2: was involved in Gaza. He's someone who doesn't know Russia

860
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:13,640
Speaker 2: and Ukraine very well. He doesn't know any of the

861
00:50:13,719 --> 00:50:15,080
Speaker 2: history or any of the people.

862
00:50:15,120 --> 00:50:17,680
Speaker 1: Well, I think he would now dispute that.

863
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:21,279
Speaker 2: He might now dispute it. But his main interlocutor has

864
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:24,600
Speaker 2: been Kiroll Dimitriev, who's the head important because he's the

865
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:28,439
Speaker 2: head of the Russian Sovereign Wealth Fund, and a lot

866
00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:31,360
Speaker 2: of what Wikoff and Dimitrie have apparently been talking about

867
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:34,360
Speaker 2: is not so much peace in Ukraine but business deals

868
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:36,640
Speaker 2: that might be done between the United States and Russia.

869
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:40,560
Speaker 2: And that's not really a very good starting point as

870
00:50:40,560 --> 00:50:43,400
Speaker 2: far as I'm concerned, or as anybody Ukrainians are concerned,

871
00:50:43,480 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 2: or the Europeans are concerned. That's not really a good

872
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:47,919
Speaker 2: starting point for talking about how to end the war,

873
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:52,200
Speaker 2: because the thing that end the war is expressions of

874
00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:56,040
Speaker 2: American and European commitment to Ukraine. Well, you know, Putin

875
00:50:56,080 --> 00:50:58,960
Speaker 2: has to be persuaded that Ukraine will be able to

876
00:50:58,960 --> 00:51:01,120
Speaker 2: continue fighting for a long time, and then maybe he

877
00:51:01,160 --> 00:51:04,399
Speaker 2: will rethink his may aim. And that's not the role

878
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:05,720
Speaker 2: that would Cough is playing.

879
00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:08,839
Speaker 1: I'm just going to cut to the chase here. If

880
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:12,759
Speaker 1: I just think about this as game theory. But if

881
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 1: I'm Vladimir Putin, I have the most supportive, malleable American

882
00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:28,080
Speaker 1: president that I'll ever have, probably right, and he knows

883
00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:31,319
Speaker 1: he can, and he continues. It feels as if he

884
00:51:31,440 --> 00:51:34,600
Speaker 1: gets to put he has pushed Trump further closer and

885
00:51:34,640 --> 00:51:40,839
Speaker 1: closer to him. As this is dragged on, and now

886
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:44,960
Speaker 1: they've negotiated without the Europeans and without the Ukrainians. Here

887
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:51,640
Speaker 1: is there a point where where where Putin is overreaching

888
00:51:51,680 --> 00:51:54,680
Speaker 1: Here and even even Trump will realize he's being played.

889
00:51:57,040 --> 00:52:00,640
Speaker 2: Trump seems to be resistant to the idea that he's

890
00:52:00,680 --> 00:52:06,320
Speaker 2: being played. He continually it's it's and it's strange because

891
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 2: he's so easily offended by everybody else, by other leaders,

892
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:16,480
Speaker 2: by journalists. But there are particular people. Actually, the Saudi

893
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 2: crown Prince was one of them. We saw that in

894
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:23,520
Speaker 2: Washington also yesterday. Putin is another who seemed to have

895
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:26,080
Speaker 2: a special status for him. And my guess is it's

896
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:28,879
Speaker 2: because they're very rich, and he thinks that he can

897
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:32,960
Speaker 2: do business deals with them, and he doesn't want them insulted,

898
00:52:33,080 --> 00:52:35,839
Speaker 2: and he doesn't seem to take what he doesn't take

899
00:52:35,880 --> 00:52:40,279
Speaker 2: their insults as as seriously as he does others. And

900
00:52:40,320 --> 00:52:43,560
Speaker 2: so it doesn't it doesn't feel like he's close to that.

901
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:47,239
Speaker 2: I mean, he may be miscalculating in another way, though,

902
00:52:47,280 --> 00:52:49,520
Speaker 2: which is that you know, at this point in the war,

903
00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:53,239
Speaker 2: the Europeans are supporting the Ukrainians far more than the

904
00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:56,759
Speaker 2: US is, certainly in sheer monetary terms. They definitely are.

905
00:52:57,640 --> 00:53:01,640
Speaker 2: And the Ukrainians themselves, also, as the President would have

906
00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:03,759
Speaker 2: put it, have their own cards, They have their own

907
00:53:03,800 --> 00:53:07,400
Speaker 2: weapons industry. They made two million drones last year and

908
00:53:07,440 --> 00:53:09,279
Speaker 2: they're going to make four million drones this year, and

909
00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:14,359
Speaker 2: they've been using them to effectively hit Russian oil refineries

910
00:53:14,360 --> 00:53:17,240
Speaker 2: and other targets connected to the oil and gas industry.

911
00:53:17,800 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 2: And you know, it's not clear that Trump has control

912
00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:24,520
Speaker 2: over this war. In other words, a decision that he

913
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:27,799
Speaker 2: makes will end it. So it's a it's an odd

914
00:53:27,840 --> 00:53:30,600
Speaker 2: moment where we're still playing the game putin talking to

915
00:53:30,640 --> 00:53:33,200
Speaker 2: Trumpell and the war, but there are so many other

916
00:53:33,239 --> 00:53:36,120
Speaker 2: factors now that he doesn't seem to be taking into account.

917
00:53:37,200 --> 00:53:40,400
Speaker 1: According to this report in Axios, there was a sense

918
00:53:40,440 --> 00:53:44,520
Speaker 1: that and you could hear it that the that certain

919
00:53:44,560 --> 00:53:48,520
Speaker 1: members of the administration think that Zelenski's politically weak at

920
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:51,000
Speaker 1: the moment because of the scandal that just sort of

921
00:53:51,000 --> 00:53:54,960
Speaker 1: forced out a few of his cabinet ministers, and that

922
00:53:55,040 --> 00:53:58,840
Speaker 1: they essentially can jam him. I know you've got particular

923
00:53:58,920 --> 00:54:02,120
Speaker 1: insight on that on the ground domestically with Ukraine. What

924
00:54:02,239 --> 00:54:05,840
Speaker 1: kind of what kind of political peril is Zelenski in

925
00:54:05,920 --> 00:54:07,239
Speaker 1: at the moment domestically.

926
00:54:08,680 --> 00:54:12,840
Speaker 2: So remember that the reason there is a corruption scandal

927
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:16,200
Speaker 2: right now in Ukraine is that the Ukrainian state, a

928
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:21,319
Speaker 2: state institution, is investigating the operations of the state. In

929
00:54:21,360 --> 00:54:26,440
Speaker 2: other words, this is the Ukrainian government acting. And although

930
00:54:26,480 --> 00:54:29,279
Speaker 2: it has identified a couple of ministers who one or

931
00:54:29,280 --> 00:54:33,400
Speaker 2: two of whom are close to Zelenski, it's doing so

932
00:54:33,600 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 2: within the law. It's not as if, you know, the

933
00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:38,600
Speaker 2: IMF has come in and said you're corrupt, or even Germans.

934
00:54:38,320 --> 00:54:40,560
Speaker 1: We have or something you know, or right or the

935
00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:41,160
Speaker 1: US has.

936
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:45,440
Speaker 2: This is actually internal to the Ukrainian political system and

937
00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:50,359
Speaker 2: it's part of Ukrainian democracy and it's supported by most Ukrainians.

938
00:54:51,400 --> 00:54:56,239
Speaker 2: And so assuming that Zelenski you know, doesn't try to

939
00:54:56,280 --> 00:54:59,360
Speaker 2: block it or stop it, and so far he hasn't,

940
00:54:59,760 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 2: so he done nothing like that. He said, you know,

941
00:55:02,680 --> 00:55:07,399
Speaker 2: let the investigations continue. Assuming that continues, then he may

942
00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:13,080
Speaker 2: emerge more strongly from this scandal actually because he would

943
00:55:13,080 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 2: then be seen to have presided over something that Ukrainians want,

944
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:19,040
Speaker 2: which is a kind of clean government. This, by the way,

945
00:55:19,040 --> 00:55:21,799
Speaker 2: the nature of the scandal is not to do with

946
00:55:22,040 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 2: US or European aid. So at least not as far

947
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:28,040
Speaker 2: as we know so far. It's to do with kickbacks

948
00:55:28,080 --> 00:55:31,680
Speaker 2: on contracts, which is more which is more internal.

949
00:55:31,719 --> 00:55:34,080
Speaker 1: I hate to call it this. It felt like running

950
00:55:34,120 --> 00:55:37,360
Speaker 1: the mill government graft when I read the story, right, like,

951
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:40,200
Speaker 1: you're like, oh, well, this happens pretty much everywhere around

952
00:55:40,200 --> 00:55:43,239
Speaker 1: the world. There's always somebody skimming something off the top

953
00:55:43,960 --> 00:55:44,359
Speaker 1: getting out.

954
00:55:44,920 --> 00:55:48,200
Speaker 2: Yeah. And also, of course it's something that you can't

955
00:55:48,239 --> 00:55:52,960
Speaker 2: imagine cash Betel's FBI doing, like you can imagine this

956
00:55:53,080 --> 00:55:55,840
Speaker 2: happening now in the United States. So cash Betel's FBI

957
00:55:55,960 --> 00:56:01,480
Speaker 2: investigating Trump administration deals for example, or or Trump cabinet members.

958
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:05,200
Speaker 2: So this is evidence of the strength of Ukrainian democracy

959
00:56:05,239 --> 00:56:07,480
Speaker 2: and of transparency and so on. So you have to

960
00:56:08,200 --> 00:56:09,360
Speaker 2: you have to keep that in mind.

961
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:13,960
Speaker 1: Do you think it's a miscalculation that there's a moment

962
00:56:14,000 --> 00:56:17,880
Speaker 1: to jam Zelensky here, that the US may be misreading

963
00:56:17,880 --> 00:56:18,440
Speaker 1: the situation.

964
00:56:18,880 --> 00:56:21,200
Speaker 2: So given that we I don't know any of the details,

965
00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:26,160
Speaker 2: well none of us. I mean, the Ukrainians you know,

966
00:56:26,280 --> 00:56:30,359
Speaker 2: have no interest in ending the war, or I should

967
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:32,399
Speaker 2: say that differently, they have they have no interest in

968
00:56:32,840 --> 00:56:36,120
Speaker 2: how creating a ceasefire for the sake of a ceasefire.

969
00:56:36,239 --> 00:56:39,719
Speaker 2: In other words, having a ceasefire that will just kick

970
00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:41,880
Speaker 2: the problem down the road a little while, give the

971
00:56:41,920 --> 00:56:47,279
Speaker 2: Russians time to rearm and start the war again. That's

972
00:56:47,320 --> 00:56:49,360
Speaker 2: not something that they find useful. I mean, there's a

973
00:56:49,560 --> 00:56:51,560
Speaker 2: there's a problem actually with the way wit Cooff and

974
00:56:51,600 --> 00:56:53,960
Speaker 2: Trump negotiate, which is that they want a big headline,

975
00:56:54,000 --> 00:56:55,960
Speaker 2: just like the same thing has just happened in Gaza,

976
00:56:56,000 --> 00:57:01,520
Speaker 2: big headline, end of the war, ceasefire, just return forgetting

977
00:57:01,600 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 2: that loss of hostages were returned by the Biden administration

978
00:57:04,160 --> 00:57:07,880
Speaker 2: as well. And then actually there is no solution and

979
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:09,399
Speaker 2: we don't know how the war is going to end,

980
00:57:09,440 --> 00:57:13,200
Speaker 2: and actually the fighting is continuing in new ways, and

981
00:57:13,239 --> 00:57:16,520
Speaker 2: I think the Ukrainians are afraid of that. And there

982
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:19,520
Speaker 2: you know, so there's no you know, there's you know,

983
00:57:19,800 --> 00:57:23,240
Speaker 2: unless they're going to be offered something that has some substance,

984
00:57:23,280 --> 00:57:25,840
Speaker 2: in other words, stop fighting right now, which, by the way,

985
00:57:25,840 --> 00:57:28,640
Speaker 2: they've said they would do, stop fighting right now on

986
00:57:28,800 --> 00:57:33,520
Speaker 2: the current you know, on the current battle front lines. Uh.

987
00:57:33,560 --> 00:57:37,960
Speaker 2: And you know, then we will ensure that we reinforce

988
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:40,440
Speaker 2: you and then we can begin negotiations with some kind

989
00:57:40,480 --> 00:57:44,040
Speaker 2: of guarantee that the Russians won't use this uh to

990
00:57:44,280 --> 00:57:46,720
Speaker 2: to start fighting again. I mean, unless there's something that

991
00:57:46,840 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 2: offers them something real, then I don't see how you

992
00:57:50,360 --> 00:57:52,600
Speaker 2: can jam them. As I said, they have their own agency,

993
00:57:52,640 --> 00:57:54,320
Speaker 2: they have their own sources of money.

994
00:57:54,680 --> 00:57:58,320
Speaker 1: And at this point the war itself has changed in

995
00:57:58,360 --> 00:58:02,040
Speaker 1: that it's not using as many it's a drone war

996
00:58:03,840 --> 00:58:05,000
Speaker 1: or less. Right.

997
00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:07,840
Speaker 2: No, this is a really important point and I don't

998
00:58:07,880 --> 00:58:10,160
Speaker 2: think it's really understood by most Americans. This is a

999
00:58:10,200 --> 00:58:12,880
Speaker 2: completely different kind of war from the kind of war

1000
00:58:13,080 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 2: was at the beginning, and it's also a different kind

1001
00:58:15,520 --> 00:58:19,560
Speaker 2: of war from any war in history. So there is

1002
00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:22,440
Speaker 2: a there is a there is a kind of you know,

1003
00:58:22,520 --> 00:58:24,959
Speaker 2: ten twenty miles on either side of the front line

1004
00:58:25,320 --> 00:58:28,760
Speaker 2: which are now completely transparent. Everything can be seen because

1005
00:58:28,800 --> 00:58:31,520
Speaker 2: there's so many drones in the air, and that means

1006
00:58:31,520 --> 00:58:34,840
Speaker 2: that old kinds of military tactics whereby you know, you

1007
00:58:34,880 --> 00:58:37,760
Speaker 2: did a secret raid or you've got are all visible.

1008
00:58:38,960 --> 00:58:41,840
Speaker 2: And it's very very hard in that situation to move

1009
00:58:41,880 --> 00:58:45,280
Speaker 2: forward because as soon as any Russian trucks or tanks

1010
00:58:45,360 --> 00:58:48,840
Speaker 2: or people move into this visible zone, that Ukrainians can

1011
00:58:48,920 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 2: hit them. And so the tactics of the war have

1012
00:58:51,960 --> 00:58:55,680
Speaker 2: been about electronic warfare, how the drones are being used,

1013
00:58:56,040 --> 00:58:59,680
Speaker 2: and the Ukrainians also now have a system whereby the

1014
00:59:00,000 --> 00:59:03,000
Speaker 2: own industry is connected directly to the front line, so

1015
00:59:03,560 --> 00:59:06,680
Speaker 2: as the situation changes on the front line, they radio

1016
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:10,240
Speaker 2: back to the factory not far away, and they change

1017
00:59:10,240 --> 00:59:12,000
Speaker 2: the way the drone is being built, or they change

1018
00:59:12,000 --> 00:59:14,840
Speaker 2: the software whatever needs to be changed. So there's a

1019
00:59:14,920 --> 00:59:19,560
Speaker 2: kind of constant updating of the technology, which I mean

1020
00:59:20,280 --> 00:59:22,560
Speaker 2: is also the speed of it is something that I

1021
00:59:22,560 --> 00:59:24,600
Speaker 2: don't think we've seen anywhere else before.

1022
00:59:25,320 --> 00:59:28,360
Speaker 1: So it's such a strange war. And you're right, I've

1023
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:30,520
Speaker 1: been trying to get my I had Dexter focus on

1024
00:59:30,680 --> 00:59:32,919
Speaker 1: recently and he was he had just been there trying

1025
00:59:32,960 --> 00:59:37,360
Speaker 1: to explain and how frankly, how the Pentagon now is studying, right,

1026
00:59:38,520 --> 00:59:41,360
Speaker 1: everyone is studying what's happening here, because obviously warfare is

1027
00:59:41,360 --> 00:59:44,880
Speaker 1: going to change with the advent of drones. But that

1028
00:59:45,480 --> 00:59:51,160
Speaker 1: so if you if you need fewer human soldiers, but

1029
00:59:51,240 --> 00:59:57,040
Speaker 1: there are now more defenseless civilians, and both the Ukrainians

1030
00:59:57,040 --> 00:59:59,360
Speaker 1: and the Russians are using their drones to go to

1031
00:59:59,480 --> 01:00:02,760
Speaker 1: try to right. I assume the new pressure points are

1032
01:00:03,040 --> 01:00:04,800
Speaker 1: civilian population.

1033
01:00:05,360 --> 01:00:08,920
Speaker 2: So what the Russians are doing is hitting civilian cities

1034
01:00:09,120 --> 01:00:11,760
Speaker 2: very very hard. Actually, there was one this morning in Tarnopol.

1035
01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:16,520
Speaker 2: There was a something like seven miss cruise missiles that

1036
01:00:16,600 --> 01:00:20,240
Speaker 2: may not be precise, but a very strong attack hit

1037
01:00:20,800 --> 01:00:23,480
Speaker 2: a Ukrainian city that's pretty far from the front line. Actually,

1038
01:00:23,520 --> 01:00:27,200
Speaker 2: it's kind of in western Ukraine. And that's how the

1039
01:00:27,280 --> 01:00:31,640
Speaker 2: Russians have been seeking to terrorize and demoralize Ukrainians. Ukrainians

1040
01:00:31,640 --> 01:00:34,320
Speaker 2: are doing something different, which is the Ukrainians, as I said,

1041
01:00:34,360 --> 01:00:40,040
Speaker 2: are hitting Russian energy export infrastructure and oil refineries, and

1042
01:00:40,080 --> 01:00:43,640
Speaker 2: they're doing so pretty effectively, so much so that they've

1043
01:00:43,680 --> 01:00:48,240
Speaker 2: taken out about a quarter of Russia's refining capability. And

1044
01:00:48,360 --> 01:00:52,200
Speaker 2: recently they hit a very important export port on the

1045
01:00:52,240 --> 01:00:55,280
Speaker 2: Black Sea, which is where oil goes through. And so

1046
01:00:55,400 --> 01:00:58,400
Speaker 2: their calculation is that the Russians don't care about men,

1047
01:00:58,560 --> 01:01:00,439
Speaker 2: you know, so they don't care how many people will die,

1048
01:01:01,240 --> 01:01:03,720
Speaker 2: they're not bothered by that. But they do care about money,

1049
01:01:03,960 --> 01:01:06,120
Speaker 2: as one put it to me, and so they're trying

1050
01:01:06,160 --> 01:01:09,080
Speaker 2: to you know, their effort to stop the war is

1051
01:01:09,120 --> 01:01:12,000
Speaker 2: going that way. You know, they need to make the

1052
01:01:12,040 --> 01:01:15,080
Speaker 2: cost of the war so high that, as I said,

1053
01:01:15,120 --> 01:01:20,240
Speaker 2: the point being that Putin changes his mind and you know,

1054
01:01:20,440 --> 01:01:23,120
Speaker 2: and begins to think it's unwinnable or it's not worth winning,

1055
01:01:23,400 --> 01:01:25,880
Speaker 2: which is, by the way, how colonial wars, which is

1056
01:01:25,880 --> 01:01:30,120
Speaker 2: what this is, usually end, is that the capital decides

1057
01:01:30,160 --> 01:01:33,280
Speaker 2: that it's not worth it anymore and the colony is

1058
01:01:33,640 --> 01:01:35,880
Speaker 2: allowed to go. If you look at the Algerian French

1059
01:01:35,880 --> 01:01:37,280
Speaker 2: War in Algeria or something like that.

1060
01:01:37,880 --> 01:01:43,760
Speaker 1: Look, you can't go a week without seeing a headline,

1061
01:01:43,760 --> 01:01:47,760
Speaker 1: whether it's in the Financial Times, but somewhere in Europe

1062
01:01:47,800 --> 01:01:50,080
Speaker 1: that does try to do some reporting out of Russia.

1063
01:01:50,480 --> 01:01:54,040
Speaker 1: I mean, the economy seems to be in just wretched

1064
01:01:54,120 --> 01:01:57,720
Speaker 1: shape in Russia that all of this is finally having

1065
01:01:58,120 --> 01:02:02,640
Speaker 1: is taking a toll. I mean, at what point does

1066
01:02:03,320 --> 01:02:05,520
Speaker 1: domestic pressure play a role here?

1067
01:02:06,280 --> 01:02:09,680
Speaker 2: Well, Putin has constructed his political system so that he

1068
01:02:09,840 --> 01:02:13,000
Speaker 2: feels very little domestic pressure. You know, there isn't a

1069
01:02:13,040 --> 01:02:15,560
Speaker 2: pathway for domestic pressure to express itself.

1070
01:02:15,640 --> 01:02:18,640
Speaker 1: Sure, but if people are not happy with that, the

1071
01:02:18,680 --> 01:02:21,240
Speaker 1: economy they start to get I mean it feels as

1072
01:02:21,320 --> 01:02:23,480
Speaker 1: if they're talking more and more. Put it that way,

1073
01:02:23,480 --> 01:02:24,920
Speaker 1: because there's more reports about.

1074
01:02:24,720 --> 01:02:28,200
Speaker 2: This, people are talking more, people are angrier. Actually, there

1075
01:02:28,280 --> 01:02:30,800
Speaker 2: isn't real polling in Russia, but there are some opposition

1076
01:02:30,840 --> 01:02:34,480
Speaker 2: groups who do kind of measuring of sentiment online and

1077
01:02:34,520 --> 01:02:38,680
Speaker 2: that certainly swung against the war. I mean, another kind

1078
01:02:38,680 --> 01:02:43,040
Speaker 2: of grim statistic is the number of people who commit

1079
01:02:43,120 --> 01:02:47,160
Speaker 2: suicide in the Russian League mysteriously or fall out of

1080
01:02:47,160 --> 01:02:51,920
Speaker 2: windows or somehow or other disappear, and that number has

1081
01:02:51,960 --> 01:02:54,880
Speaker 2: also been pretty high recently. So that means that those

1082
01:02:54,920 --> 01:02:59,200
Speaker 2: are people who are expressing in their circles some kind

1083
01:02:59,240 --> 01:03:01,960
Speaker 2: of descent or otherwise not going along with the program.

1084
01:03:02,840 --> 01:03:06,240
Speaker 2: And that's and that's evidence that there's that there is

1085
01:03:06,440 --> 01:03:08,240
Speaker 2: that you're right, there is this pressure. I mean, just

1086
01:03:08,240 --> 01:03:11,440
Speaker 2: the question is when at what point it really reaches

1087
01:03:11,520 --> 01:03:15,880
Speaker 2: Putin and forces this this this you know, it's actually

1088
01:03:16,040 --> 01:03:19,720
Speaker 2: a political change, a change in language and rhetoric that

1089
01:03:19,840 --> 01:03:22,400
Speaker 2: either he has to make or of successful.

1090
01:03:28,760 --> 01:03:33,440
Speaker 1: The killing off Progosion. I mean, Putin was probably saved

1091
01:03:33,520 --> 01:03:36,200
Speaker 1: himself on that because there is nobody that can sort

1092
01:03:36,240 --> 01:03:39,680
Speaker 1: of challenge him internally if someone chose to.

1093
01:03:39,720 --> 01:03:45,960
Speaker 2: But he could have well Progosion, Yeah, Progosion had a

1094
01:03:46,000 --> 01:03:49,240
Speaker 2: real constituency and his constituency if you for those who

1095
01:03:49,240 --> 01:03:51,240
Speaker 2: don't remember, he was the leader of the Wagner group

1096
01:03:51,280 --> 01:03:54,280
Speaker 2: who staged this extraordinary which was a kind of paramilitary

1097
01:03:54,600 --> 01:03:58,080
Speaker 2: merst chefs, right, that's right. He had originally been a chef.

1098
01:03:58,200 --> 01:04:00,160
Speaker 2: He ran actually he was the one who yeah, he

1099
01:04:00,200 --> 01:04:04,200
Speaker 2: was the one who ran the online influence operations during

1100
01:04:04,200 --> 01:04:08,720
Speaker 2: the twenty sixteen election here. And he then became the

1101
01:04:08,760 --> 01:04:11,960
Speaker 2: head of this mercenary force and he had a real constituency,

1102
01:04:12,000 --> 01:04:14,840
Speaker 2: so the mercenaries were very devoted to him. So he

1103
01:04:14,960 --> 01:04:18,480
Speaker 2: actually had armed men who were on his side and

1104
01:04:18,520 --> 01:04:21,800
Speaker 2: who were becoming at that time very critical of the

1105
01:04:21,840 --> 01:04:24,040
Speaker 2: war and of why it was being fought and why

1106
01:04:24,120 --> 01:04:27,080
Speaker 2: it had started in a lot I mean speaking of corruption,

1107
01:04:27,200 --> 01:04:30,960
Speaker 2: the enormous amount of corruption around defense in the military there,

1108
01:04:31,240 --> 01:04:35,040
Speaker 2: and so he expressed it by making this critical statements.

1109
01:04:35,640 --> 01:04:39,920
Speaker 2: And then he launched this march on Moscow that he aborted,

1110
01:04:41,080 --> 01:04:44,160
Speaker 2: and then afterwards he had a plane accident. So he

1111
01:04:44,360 --> 01:04:47,880
Speaker 2: was he was an example of someone who had a constituency.

1112
01:04:47,920 --> 01:04:50,320
Speaker 2: And the problem with other opponents of Putin is that

1113
01:04:50,360 --> 01:04:53,560
Speaker 2: they don't have that. They don't have, you know, a

1114
01:04:53,600 --> 01:04:57,080
Speaker 2: team of armed guys that they can count on who

1115
01:04:57,160 --> 01:04:59,960
Speaker 2: might who might scare the president. But you know, it's

1116
01:05:00,120 --> 01:05:02,960
Speaker 2: also one of the lessons of Russian history, and I

1117
01:05:03,560 --> 01:05:07,440
Speaker 2: have written about it my whole life, almost is that,

1118
01:05:08,240 --> 01:05:13,960
Speaker 2: you know, the regime seems inevitable and eternal until the

1119
01:05:14,040 --> 01:05:16,600
Speaker 2: day it falls. I mean, if you look at the Zaris.

1120
01:05:16,400 --> 01:05:19,120
Speaker 1: You're describing bankruptcy, right, you know, first it's slowly and

1121
01:05:19,160 --> 01:05:21,440
Speaker 1: then all of a sudden it's quickly.

1122
01:05:21,080 --> 01:05:23,680
Speaker 2: But you look at the way the Bizarist Revolution happened,

1123
01:05:23,720 --> 01:05:27,040
Speaker 2: you know that was totally unexpected. If you look at

1124
01:05:27,040 --> 01:05:30,800
Speaker 2: the way the Soviet Union fell months before that, nobody

1125
01:05:30,800 --> 01:05:32,960
Speaker 2: thought that was going to happen, you know. And so

1126
01:05:33,360 --> 01:05:36,880
Speaker 2: I'm always hesitant to make predictions about about Putins Russia,

1127
01:05:36,920 --> 01:05:38,920
Speaker 2: to say that it's you know, it's going to last forever,

1128
01:05:39,760 --> 01:05:43,360
Speaker 2: or it's going to end next week, because the system

1129
01:05:43,520 --> 01:05:47,000
Speaker 2: is very strong in that he controls all these levers

1130
01:05:47,000 --> 01:05:50,400
Speaker 2: of power, He controls the media, the military, the economy,

1131
01:05:50,440 --> 01:05:54,040
Speaker 2: and so on. But it's also very weak, and that

1132
01:05:54,360 --> 01:05:59,400
Speaker 2: once his authority is questioned, it's not clear who comes next.

1133
01:05:59,520 --> 01:06:03,840
Speaker 2: So there's no there's no successor there's no succession process,

1134
01:06:03,960 --> 01:06:07,800
Speaker 2: there's no pollit bureau, you know. You know, so as

1135
01:06:07,840 --> 01:06:10,080
Speaker 2: soon as something happens to him or there's lacks of

1136
01:06:10,120 --> 01:06:12,880
Speaker 2: faith in him, then you might get changed very quickly.

1137
01:06:13,800 --> 01:06:17,480
Speaker 1: How much does he need China right now? And is

1138
01:06:17,520 --> 01:06:20,160
Speaker 1: there a point where China is just like it's not

1139
01:06:20,240 --> 01:06:21,560
Speaker 1: worth the cost.

1140
01:06:22,000 --> 01:06:25,000
Speaker 2: He is totally dependent on China. He's dependent on China

1141
01:06:25,040 --> 01:06:28,080
Speaker 2: for trade, He's dependent on China as the market for

1142
01:06:28,320 --> 01:06:32,480
Speaker 2: oil and gas. He's dependent on China politically. The Chinese

1143
01:06:32,600 --> 01:06:36,120
Speaker 2: have stood up for him in various international fora and

1144
01:06:36,160 --> 01:06:41,280
Speaker 2: so on. The Chinese seem to be defending me, even

1145
01:06:41,280 --> 01:06:44,320
Speaker 2: though I think they had they were surprised by the

1146
01:06:44,320 --> 01:06:47,600
Speaker 2: invasion of Ukraine, and they were also I think somewhat

1147
01:06:47,640 --> 01:06:49,720
Speaker 2: horrified by it. I mean, they had investments in Ukraine,

1148
01:06:49,720 --> 01:06:51,080
Speaker 2: and they had students there and so on.

1149
01:06:52,320 --> 01:06:53,920
Speaker 1: But they the.

1150
01:06:53,960 --> 01:06:56,520
Speaker 2: Chinese have stuck with the Russians, and I think will

1151
01:06:56,560 --> 01:06:59,800
Speaker 2: stick with them because they see the war as a

1152
01:06:59,800 --> 01:07:03,520
Speaker 2: way weakening the United States. They see it as a

1153
01:07:03,680 --> 01:07:06,440
Speaker 2: tool that they can use to weaken the perception of

1154
01:07:06,480 --> 01:07:10,720
Speaker 2: American power, maybe to weaken the American European Alliance, which

1155
01:07:10,760 --> 01:07:13,360
Speaker 2: actually is happening pretty effectively without them.

1156
01:07:13,440 --> 01:07:15,480
Speaker 1: But I was just going to say President Trump is

1157
01:07:15,880 --> 01:07:17,840
Speaker 1: going on on his own trying to weaken this alliance.

1158
01:07:19,040 --> 01:07:21,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, and of course that's also a mistake because the again,

1159
01:07:21,840 --> 01:07:25,400
Speaker 2: the way the war ends is through American European solidarity.

1160
01:07:25,520 --> 01:07:29,440
Speaker 2: You know, make make Putin think it will never crack,

1161
01:07:30,320 --> 01:07:34,480
Speaker 2: stick with the stick with the Ukrainians, and then you know,

1162
01:07:34,600 --> 01:07:37,560
Speaker 2: wait for the moment of wait for the shift. But

1163
01:07:38,160 --> 01:07:41,880
Speaker 2: the you know, this constant movement back and forth, this

1164
01:07:41,960 --> 01:07:44,080
Speaker 2: attempt to do business deals and so on, all of

1165
01:07:44,120 --> 01:07:46,680
Speaker 2: that gives Putin the feeling that if he just keeps going,

1166
01:07:47,040 --> 01:07:48,960
Speaker 2: he'll win. And he has, as I said, as we've

1167
01:07:49,000 --> 01:07:51,400
Speaker 2: just said, he has Chinese allies. Not only that, he

1168
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:54,640
Speaker 2: has North Korean allies. The North Koreans have sent troops

1169
01:07:54,640 --> 01:07:58,160
Speaker 2: to Ukraine. He has Iranian allies. They've sent drones to Ukraine.

1170
01:07:59,040 --> 01:08:03,080
Speaker 2: You know, there is a this being the topic of

1171
01:08:03,120 --> 01:08:05,600
Speaker 2: the book we discussed, I mean, this is the this

1172
01:08:05,680 --> 01:08:08,000
Speaker 2: is the There is a kind of network of the

1173
01:08:08,040 --> 01:08:11,080
Speaker 2: autocratic world, and you can see it really most clearly there.

1174
01:08:13,760 --> 01:08:16,439
Speaker 1: I know, you have particular insight into Poland, and there

1175
01:08:16,479 --> 01:08:20,759
Speaker 1: was another sort of there are always these did Russia

1176
01:08:20,840 --> 01:08:22,800
Speaker 1: do this on purpose? I don't think there's ever been

1177
01:08:22,840 --> 01:08:26,960
Speaker 1: an accidental incursion into Poland during this war. I'm curious,

1178
01:08:27,479 --> 01:08:30,439
Speaker 1: but what do they think they're accomplishing here, because it

1179
01:08:30,479 --> 01:08:33,559
Speaker 1: feels as if the last thing they should want is

1180
01:08:33,640 --> 01:08:37,400
Speaker 1: to sort of steal the resolve of Eastern Europeans.

1181
01:08:37,439 --> 01:08:40,479
Speaker 2: Now, well, so you're talking about two things. I mean,

1182
01:08:40,520 --> 01:08:43,120
Speaker 2: there was this drone incursion into Poland and also in

1183
01:08:43,160 --> 01:08:43,679
Speaker 2: the last.

1184
01:08:43,560 --> 01:08:46,760
Speaker 1: Few days they blew up a train line right.

1185
01:08:46,600 --> 01:08:49,320
Speaker 2: Now, train track. There was a train from Warsaw to

1186
01:08:49,360 --> 01:08:50,280
Speaker 2: Lublin that goes to.

1187
01:08:50,439 --> 01:08:53,920
Speaker 1: And they assume, and I know, the polesy essentially said

1188
01:08:53,960 --> 01:08:56,040
Speaker 1: they assume it's Russian sabotage, but they hadn't.

1189
01:08:56,560 --> 01:09:00,320
Speaker 2: I think they know who it is already, Okay, as

1190
01:09:00,120 --> 01:09:02,559
Speaker 2: as far as I know. I mean, there's one little

1191
01:09:02,640 --> 01:09:05,320
Speaker 2: nuance which is interesting, was it looks like what the

1192
01:09:05,680 --> 01:09:12,559
Speaker 2: perpetrators were Ukrainians, originally Ukrainian citizens who were employed and

1193
01:09:12,600 --> 01:09:15,880
Speaker 2: paid by Russia and seemed to have escaped into Belarus.

1194
01:09:15,960 --> 01:09:17,719
Speaker 2: And so I think the purpose of it, the purpose

1195
01:09:17,720 --> 01:09:21,040
Speaker 2: of this is always to you know, the Russians think

1196
01:09:21,040 --> 01:09:24,200
Speaker 2: a lot about creating antagonism. You know, they want there

1197
01:09:24,240 --> 01:09:27,599
Speaker 2: to be antagonism between Warsan Kiev. You know, they want

1198
01:09:27,640 --> 01:09:32,160
Speaker 2: to create suspicion of Ukrainians in Poland. They may also

1199
01:09:32,360 --> 01:09:35,519
Speaker 2: have the scary thing about the train story is that

1200
01:09:35,600 --> 01:09:37,880
Speaker 2: they may have been trying to kill a lot of people,

1201
01:09:37,960 --> 01:09:40,400
Speaker 2: because if the bomb didn't go off the way it

1202
01:09:40,439 --> 01:09:42,720
Speaker 2: was supposed to go off, it it had done, it

1203
01:09:42,840 --> 01:09:46,679
Speaker 2: might have knocked a train over an embankment and hundreds

1204
01:09:46,720 --> 01:09:49,800
Speaker 2: of at least hundreds of people might have died. So

1205
01:09:49,840 --> 01:09:54,280
Speaker 2: I think they're looking for some kind of spectacular scene.

1206
01:09:54,360 --> 01:09:57,320
Speaker 2: And you know, their calculation is that if we do

1207
01:09:57,520 --> 01:10:01,320
Speaker 2: enough stuff like that will scare people, you know, will

1208
01:10:01,360 --> 01:10:04,160
Speaker 2: frighten them into not supporting Ukraine, or will make people

1209
01:10:04,160 --> 01:10:06,479
Speaker 2: stay home. I mean, as you just observe, the Russians

1210
01:10:06,520 --> 01:10:09,240
Speaker 2: are good at stuff like that, but they're also not

1211
01:10:09,400 --> 01:10:12,160
Speaker 2: so good sometimes at understanding how it will affect people.

1212
01:10:12,200 --> 01:10:14,720
Speaker 2: And I think the impact in Poland is going to

1213
01:10:14,720 --> 01:10:16,200
Speaker 2: be the opposite. I mean, the more you bring the

1214
01:10:16,240 --> 01:10:18,720
Speaker 2: war home to people in Poland, or in Germany, where

1215
01:10:18,720 --> 01:10:22,160
Speaker 2: it's similar there have been similar incidents, or in Scandinavia

1216
01:10:22,200 --> 01:10:25,000
Speaker 2: where there have been some drone drones who threatened the

1217
01:10:25,040 --> 01:10:27,720
Speaker 2: Copenhagen airport, the more you do that, the more you

1218
01:10:28,240 --> 01:10:32,040
Speaker 2: inspire European populations to want to defend Ukraine. And I

1219
01:10:32,040 --> 01:10:36,000
Speaker 2: should say again, European spending is going up. It's probably

1220
01:10:36,080 --> 01:10:41,120
Speaker 2: the main conversation in Brussels right now at U meetings.

1221
01:10:41,520 --> 01:10:45,599
Speaker 2: Big story in Germany, Scandinavia, Poland, the UK. Not everywhere

1222
01:10:45,600 --> 01:10:48,080
Speaker 2: in Europe, but a lot of European countries are taking

1223
01:10:48,200 --> 01:10:48,879
Speaker 2: really seriously.

1224
01:10:49,400 --> 01:10:52,559
Speaker 1: Is all the usaid now to Ukraine indirect? It all

1225
01:10:52,600 --> 01:10:56,080
Speaker 1: goes through NATO. Basically NATO buys from US and then

1226
01:10:56,600 --> 01:11:00,960
Speaker 1: it moves there. How is usaid in to Ukraine working

1227
01:11:01,040 --> 01:11:02,200
Speaker 1: these days?

1228
01:11:02,479 --> 01:11:05,720
Speaker 2: So I don't I don't know. There was still some

1229
01:11:05,760 --> 01:11:08,080
Speaker 2: aid that was purchased under the Biden administration that was

1230
01:11:08,120 --> 01:11:10,600
Speaker 2: still coming into Ukraine, and I don't know at this

1231
01:11:10,720 --> 01:11:13,080
Speaker 2: exact second the status of it, whether it's all finished

1232
01:11:13,120 --> 01:11:16,240
Speaker 2: or whether there's some still going in. There have been

1233
01:11:16,280 --> 01:11:21,080
Speaker 2: some big European purchases, and the US has two things

1234
01:11:21,160 --> 01:11:25,320
Speaker 2: that nobody else has. One of them is patriot missiles,

1235
01:11:25,360 --> 01:11:28,320
Speaker 2: which defend which can be used to defend Ukrainian cities.

1236
01:11:28,520 --> 01:11:31,799
Speaker 2: So this is this is about defending civilians from missile attack,

1237
01:11:32,360 --> 01:11:34,680
Speaker 2: and the US just has more of them and they

1238
01:11:34,680 --> 01:11:37,679
Speaker 2: work better, and that's something the Ukrainians are trying to buy,

1239
01:11:37,720 --> 01:11:39,679
Speaker 2: and I think the Europeans have done deals to buy

1240
01:11:40,400 --> 01:11:44,120
Speaker 2: And the other thing the US has is intelligence, the

1241
01:11:44,280 --> 01:11:49,640
Speaker 2: real time satellite intelligence, and that is beginning to be replaced,

1242
01:11:49,680 --> 01:11:52,640
Speaker 2: but might not be totally. But as I said, the

1243
01:11:52,640 --> 01:11:56,200
Speaker 2: bulk of money is coming from Europe to pay for

1244
01:11:56,240 --> 01:11:56,479
Speaker 2: all this.

1245
01:11:57,080 --> 01:12:00,920
Speaker 1: Because I'll be honest, my ma isption that the most

1246
01:12:00,960 --> 01:12:05,320
Speaker 1: likely scenario here in the in regards to this, this

1247
01:12:05,400 --> 01:12:11,280
Speaker 1: whitcough negotiated proposal to end the war, is that Trump

1248
01:12:11,320 --> 01:12:15,160
Speaker 1: will use if the Ukrainians say no, right, you know,

1249
01:12:15,200 --> 01:12:18,439
Speaker 1: Europeans sort of poo poo it that that's what he'll

1250
01:12:18,520 --> 01:12:21,679
Speaker 1: use to basically say, well, I'm out, I'm walking away.

1251
01:12:24,520 --> 01:12:26,360
Speaker 1: If the US walks away, what does that look like?

1252
01:12:27,439 --> 01:12:31,240
Speaker 2: So it depends what walk away meets walking away leaving

1253
01:12:31,280 --> 01:12:36,200
Speaker 2: in place. The intelligence cooperation is bad, but maybe not

1254
01:12:36,320 --> 01:12:40,559
Speaker 2: that bad, you know. Then puts the Europeans as the

1255
01:12:40,600 --> 01:12:43,320
Speaker 2: main ally of Ukraine, and we can stop having this

1256
01:12:43,439 --> 01:12:49,840
Speaker 2: pretense that America negotiating with Russia will solve the problem. Also, though,

1257
01:12:50,240 --> 01:12:53,599
Speaker 2: you know, I think this was Trump's goal before and

1258
01:12:53,880 --> 01:12:58,800
Speaker 2: Zelensky to find an excuse to leave. Actually it was.

1259
01:12:58,840 --> 01:13:01,320
Speaker 2: It was when Zelensky read all as only he said

1260
01:13:01,360 --> 01:13:03,920
Speaker 2: he would accept an immediate ceasefire if there were.

1261
01:13:03,760 --> 01:13:05,920
Speaker 1: To be won and then Trump he knew that Trump

1262
01:13:05,960 --> 01:13:07,040
Speaker 1: had to go.

1263
01:13:06,960 --> 01:13:09,640
Speaker 2: Back, right, and it's it's actually once again, it's the

1264
01:13:09,680 --> 01:13:12,320
Speaker 2: Russians who don't want to cease fire because the Russians

1265
01:13:12,360 --> 01:13:15,559
Speaker 2: still think they're gonna win, you know. And so if

1266
01:13:15,640 --> 01:13:18,559
Speaker 2: Zelenski continues to repeat that that he'll accept a ceasefire,

1267
01:13:18,680 --> 01:13:20,320
Speaker 2: maybe maybe he can ward this off.

1268
01:13:21,920 --> 01:13:26,160
Speaker 1: Is it your suspicion, then then that probably what we

1269
01:13:26,200 --> 01:13:28,760
Speaker 1: haven't seen the deal. But if what the Russians have

1270
01:13:28,840 --> 01:13:33,200
Speaker 1: agreed to they know the Ukrainians will reject, and that

1271
01:13:33,200 --> 01:13:36,759
Speaker 1: they they know one of the outcomes could be Trump

1272
01:13:36,800 --> 01:13:39,600
Speaker 1: just walking away, which is actually they don't care or

1273
01:13:39,600 --> 01:13:42,400
Speaker 1: well that or do they want the Americans still in

1274
01:13:42,439 --> 01:13:42,760
Speaker 1: the loop.

1275
01:13:44,479 --> 01:13:48,760
Speaker 2: So what the Russians were asking for before was for

1276
01:13:49,040 --> 01:13:53,280
Speaker 2: Ukrainian territory that they haven't conquered. They were they were

1277
01:13:53,280 --> 01:13:56,240
Speaker 2: demanding possession of some land that they have never that

1278
01:13:56,280 --> 01:13:59,640
Speaker 2: they've never managed to uh to occupy. I remember, the

1279
01:13:59,720 --> 01:14:02,679
Speaker 2: Russian have been fighting in Dunbass in eastern Ukraine. They've

1280
01:14:02,680 --> 01:14:05,040
Speaker 2: been fighting for more than ten years, and they still

1281
01:14:05,040 --> 01:14:08,400
Speaker 2: haven't managed to conquer all the territory they claim, and

1282
01:14:08,439 --> 01:14:11,040
Speaker 2: so and that of course is unacceptable Zelenski can't give

1283
01:14:11,080 --> 01:14:15,240
Speaker 2: away territory for no reason and exchange for nothing that

1284
01:14:15,360 --> 01:14:17,519
Speaker 2: they were they weren't the Russians weren't offering any other

1285
01:14:17,640 --> 01:14:22,720
Speaker 2: kind of concession. Maybe there's some other maybe there's some

1286
01:14:22,760 --> 01:14:25,240
Speaker 2: twist to it now that that I that I don't

1287
01:14:25,240 --> 01:14:29,040
Speaker 2: know about. But if that's still what they're saying, that

1288
01:14:29,120 --> 01:14:31,760
Speaker 2: will you know, we want this extra land, right and

1289
01:14:31,800 --> 01:14:34,400
Speaker 2: we want Ukraine to disarm. That was the other piece

1290
01:14:34,439 --> 01:14:37,200
Speaker 2: of it. We want to we want to demilitarized Ukraine.

1291
01:14:37,720 --> 01:14:41,040
Speaker 2: Then Ukrainians can accept that, because that's just an invitation

1292
01:14:41,120 --> 01:14:44,000
Speaker 2: to the Russians to take territory they haven't conquered, and

1293
01:14:44,040 --> 01:14:47,040
Speaker 2: then to take over Ukraine next year, you know, or

1294
01:14:47,080 --> 01:14:52,160
Speaker 2: the year after and so again. Unless unless there's a

1295
01:14:52,200 --> 01:14:56,080
Speaker 2: deal that reflects some kind of you know, some kind

1296
01:14:56,120 --> 01:15:00,519
Speaker 2: of acceptance that Ukraine has the right to exist, can't

1297
01:15:00,520 --> 01:15:03,800
Speaker 2: accept it. And by the way, and I don't think

1298
01:15:03,840 --> 01:15:06,840
Speaker 2: anybody would be surprised by the in other words of

1299
01:15:06,920 --> 01:15:09,840
Speaker 2: Putin's if Trump says I have this great deal and

1300
01:15:10,240 --> 01:15:12,240
Speaker 2: you know, Ukrainians are supposed to disarm and give away

1301
01:15:12,240 --> 01:15:16,759
Speaker 2: their territory, I don't think that even that Most Americans

1302
01:15:16,760 --> 01:15:19,200
Speaker 2: would say well, that sounds fantastic. Why aren't the Ukrainians

1303
01:15:19,200 --> 01:15:19,880
Speaker 2: going along with it?

1304
01:15:21,200 --> 01:15:25,519
Speaker 1: But it's your your your suspicion is is it still

1305
01:15:25,520 --> 01:15:27,439
Speaker 1: the same as it was before that Trump's looking for

1306
01:15:27,479 --> 01:15:29,920
Speaker 1: a way just to walk away from this issue.

1307
01:15:31,240 --> 01:15:34,120
Speaker 2: I mean, I think he probably authentically wants the thing

1308
01:15:34,160 --> 01:15:39,080
Speaker 2: he got in Gaza, which is some big announcement that

1309
01:15:39,160 --> 01:15:41,639
Speaker 2: people think is a peace plan or a peace deal,

1310
01:15:41,720 --> 01:15:43,800
Speaker 2: which isn't really a peace deal, just as the plan

1311
01:15:43,880 --> 01:15:47,080
Speaker 2: in Gaza wasn't a peace deal, wasn't a complete peace deal.

1312
01:15:48,080 --> 01:15:50,439
Speaker 2: He wants. You know, what Trump is always interested in

1313
01:15:50,680 --> 01:15:55,960
Speaker 2: is winning the moment or whatever moment he's in, whatever

1314
01:15:56,000 --> 01:15:57,759
Speaker 2: conversation he's in, he wants to emerge.

1315
01:15:57,760 --> 01:16:01,040
Speaker 1: I always say he's always buying time too, whatever it is.

1316
01:16:01,080 --> 01:16:03,280
Speaker 1: He's always pushing off hard decisions.

1317
01:16:03,560 --> 01:16:06,680
Speaker 2: But he also doesn't he doesn't have a long term strategy.

1318
01:16:06,720 --> 01:16:10,120
Speaker 2: He doesn't have an idea for how Ukraine and Russia

1319
01:16:10,120 --> 01:16:13,479
Speaker 2: will coexist over the next ten years. Or he doesn't

1320
01:16:13,520 --> 01:16:18,439
Speaker 2: think about how the rest of the world would perceive

1321
01:16:18,600 --> 01:16:20,880
Speaker 2: his abandonment of Ukraine, what that would do to other

1322
01:16:20,960 --> 01:16:23,240
Speaker 2: kinds of American interests. You know, he doesn't think in

1323
01:16:23,240 --> 01:16:27,080
Speaker 2: that global way. He only thinks like, how do I win?

1324
01:16:27,280 --> 01:16:29,360
Speaker 2: How do how do I emerge from this?

1325
01:16:29,960 --> 01:16:32,040
Speaker 1: Well, you know, it's funny you say that, because I've

1326
01:16:32,040 --> 01:16:37,479
Speaker 1: been thinking about the Venezuela issue and sort of how

1327
01:16:37,479 --> 01:16:42,960
Speaker 1: we're going about this and the message that China is

1328
01:16:43,040 --> 01:16:46,160
Speaker 1: taking from it and the message that Russia is taking

1329
01:16:46,200 --> 01:16:49,320
Speaker 1: from it. Yep, right, this is quote unquote our hemisphere

1330
01:16:49,880 --> 01:16:53,679
Speaker 1: and we're dealing with what we say is a problem.

1331
01:16:54,640 --> 01:16:57,680
Speaker 1: So they even make a law enforcement issue, right that

1332
01:16:57,760 --> 01:17:03,000
Speaker 1: this is a this is a creating a national security

1333
01:17:03,960 --> 01:17:10,080
Speaker 1: sort of pretext. I guess. But you know what we're

1334
01:17:10,160 --> 01:17:15,479
Speaker 1: doing with Venezuela, what would Putin say, wouldn't he argue?

1335
01:17:15,520 --> 01:17:17,960
Speaker 1: It's no different than what he's trying to do in Ukraine.

1336
01:17:18,320 --> 01:17:22,559
Speaker 2: Of course, it's also almost an exact blueprint of what

1337
01:17:22,680 --> 01:17:25,960
Speaker 2: the Chinese could do in Taiwan. I mean, it's very

1338
01:17:26,080 --> 01:17:28,280
Speaker 2: very similar. I mean, this is my I even a

1339
01:17:28,320 --> 01:17:31,400
Speaker 2: lot of qualms about Venezuela, although I think it's you know,

1340
01:17:31,439 --> 01:17:33,439
Speaker 2: that's a it is a very ugly regime, and I

1341
01:17:33,479 --> 01:17:35,200
Speaker 2: know lots of people who would like it to fall.

1342
01:17:35,600 --> 01:17:37,559
Speaker 1: Well, look, I'm at Miami. I grew up in Miami,

1343
01:17:37,600 --> 01:17:40,759
Speaker 1: and I'm very empathetic. I got a lot of Venezuelan friends,

1344
01:17:40,800 --> 01:17:44,800
Speaker 1: and I I if the administration we're making a democracy

1345
01:17:44,840 --> 01:17:48,080
Speaker 1: case what they're doing, I would feel better. But the

1346
01:17:48,160 --> 01:17:53,080
Speaker 1: fact that they're not, and they're basically lying about the

1347
01:17:53,160 --> 01:17:57,320
Speaker 1: situation in order to to do this, You're just like,

1348
01:17:57,680 --> 01:18:01,479
Speaker 1: this is you're going about this the wrong way for

1349
01:18:01,560 --> 01:18:04,200
Speaker 1: an outcome that maybe many people would like to see,

1350
01:18:04,760 --> 01:18:07,559
Speaker 1: but this is not the time for an ends justifies

1351
01:18:07,600 --> 01:18:08,320
Speaker 1: the means moment.

1352
01:18:08,720 --> 01:18:14,040
Speaker 2: No, And as you say, it sets a terrible example.

1353
01:18:14,320 --> 01:18:16,920
Speaker 2: You know, it says we get to this country is

1354
01:18:16,920 --> 01:18:18,920
Speaker 2: close to us, and so we get to do whatever

1355
01:18:18,920 --> 01:18:21,960
Speaker 2: we want, and we can do extra judicial murders of

1356
01:18:22,520 --> 01:18:26,280
Speaker 2: what might be drug traffickers or might be fishermen, and

1357
01:18:26,320 --> 01:18:29,839
Speaker 2: we can park lots of boats, you know, big ships

1358
01:18:30,000 --> 01:18:33,040
Speaker 2: around the coast, and we can threaten you know, we

1359
01:18:33,080 --> 01:18:36,200
Speaker 2: can issue threats and we do it with impunity because

1360
01:18:36,240 --> 01:18:39,360
Speaker 2: it's our hemisphere. And this is exactly the argument that

1361
01:18:39,840 --> 01:18:42,880
Speaker 2: Putin has made about Ukraine. I mean, with nuances. It's

1362
01:18:43,000 --> 01:18:46,080
Speaker 2: very similar to what the Chinese could start to say

1363
01:18:46,080 --> 01:18:49,160
Speaker 2: about Taiwan, and Taiwan threatens our national security because we

1364
01:18:49,200 --> 01:18:55,240
Speaker 2: say so, you know, right, and it's it's really profoundly

1365
01:18:55,479 --> 01:19:02,320
Speaker 2: undermining to the the you know, the idea really that

1366
01:19:02,680 --> 01:19:07,800
Speaker 2: small countries have rights, that borders have meaning that you

1367
01:19:07,800 --> 01:19:11,280
Speaker 2: know that there is some kind of international system that

1368
01:19:11,360 --> 01:19:14,040
Speaker 2: people that people have respect for. I mean, it's been

1369
01:19:14,080 --> 01:19:16,559
Speaker 2: deteriorating for a long time and you can you can

1370
01:19:16,640 --> 01:19:19,439
Speaker 2: you can find previous American presidents who also undermined it.

1371
01:19:20,000 --> 01:19:23,200
Speaker 2: But this is just feels like something new, especially in

1372
01:19:23,240 --> 01:19:26,080
Speaker 2: the context of the war in Ukraine and of China's

1373
01:19:26,120 --> 01:19:26,839
Speaker 2: threats of Taiwan.

1374
01:19:28,840 --> 01:19:32,920
Speaker 1: In your book, obviously you were just referring to it

1375
01:19:32,920 --> 01:19:37,120
Speaker 1: before that there is you know that there now really

1376
01:19:37,200 --> 01:19:42,880
Speaker 1: is a network of these autocrats. We had to visit

1377
01:19:44,400 --> 01:19:48,639
Speaker 1: what is Saudi Arabian? Is it an autocracy I call

1378
01:19:48,960 --> 01:19:51,840
Speaker 1: you know, I don't believe in any monarchies. I believe

1379
01:19:51,840 --> 01:19:55,440
Speaker 1: there's either benevolent dictators or malevolent dictators. And the benevolent

1380
01:19:55,479 --> 01:19:58,760
Speaker 1: ones we call king and the malevolent ones we call

1381
01:19:58,840 --> 01:20:03,400
Speaker 1: something else. But that's my sort of that's my spin.

1382
01:20:03,640 --> 01:20:06,680
Speaker 1: But where where do you put Saudi Arabia on this?

1383
01:20:06,800 --> 01:20:10,880
Speaker 1: And because it feels like we really and this wasn't

1384
01:20:10,960 --> 01:20:13,439
Speaker 1: just the Trump administration, the Bide administration. I mean, I've

1385
01:20:13,439 --> 01:20:16,880
Speaker 1: had this conversation with Jake Sullivan, everything about would be like, look,

1386
01:20:16,920 --> 01:20:19,879
Speaker 1: we've got to tolerate some of this from the Saudis

1387
01:20:19,920 --> 01:20:21,920
Speaker 1: because we need them on our side. We don't want

1388
01:20:21,920 --> 01:20:25,479
Speaker 1: them on China side. What do you put Saudi Arabian?

1389
01:20:25,560 --> 01:20:29,920
Speaker 1: What is our coosing back up to them? Do in

1390
01:20:30,080 --> 01:20:33,360
Speaker 1: your thinking about where autocracy is going?

1391
01:20:34,040 --> 01:20:38,759
Speaker 2: So Saudi Arabia is Saudi Arabia like the other goal states,

1392
01:20:39,080 --> 01:20:42,679
Speaker 2: is a little different from the Russia, China, Iran, North

1393
01:20:42,760 --> 01:20:47,720
Speaker 2: Korea nexus in that, at least for the moment, they

1394
01:20:48,120 --> 01:20:52,640
Speaker 2: their primary interest isn't undermining US, okay, and that is

1395
01:20:52,680 --> 01:20:58,480
Speaker 2: the primary interest of Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela Bilarus,

1396
01:20:59,000 --> 01:21:01,200
Speaker 2: And so they they are different. They are of course

1397
01:21:01,240 --> 01:21:04,960
Speaker 2: they're an autocracy. Autocracy and monarchy goes under the is

1398
01:21:04,960 --> 01:21:08,320
Speaker 2: a sub category of autocracy. They're an autocracy in that

1399
01:21:08,479 --> 01:21:12,639
Speaker 2: it's a state where they rule without the leader's rule,

1400
01:21:12,680 --> 01:21:16,920
Speaker 2: without checks and balances. There's no transparency, there's no there's

1401
01:21:16,920 --> 01:21:20,160
Speaker 2: no real opposition, there's you know, people don't have rights

1402
01:21:20,439 --> 01:21:22,639
Speaker 2: and they're above all. There's no rule of law. There's

1403
01:21:22,760 --> 01:21:24,479
Speaker 2: rule by law, which means the law is with the

1404
01:21:24,560 --> 01:21:28,600
Speaker 2: King says laws, and it can change. And at the

1405
01:21:28,640 --> 01:21:31,479
Speaker 2: moment he's a little bit more benevolent than he than

1406
01:21:31,640 --> 01:21:34,479
Speaker 2: some previous Saudi leaders were, but that could change in

1407
01:21:34,800 --> 01:21:37,639
Speaker 2: a heartbeat if he feels like it. And so it's

1408
01:21:37,680 --> 01:21:39,599
Speaker 2: it's so, that's the kind of political system it is.

1409
01:21:39,880 --> 01:21:42,120
Speaker 2: I mean, it's been one that has been willing to

1410
01:21:42,240 --> 01:21:46,240
Speaker 2: cooperate with us, and that's you know, there are reasons

1411
01:21:46,280 --> 01:21:48,800
Speaker 2: why it's useful to talk to them. You know, they

1412
01:21:49,160 --> 01:21:52,439
Speaker 2: they're they're they're constructive things that the Saudis can do.

1413
01:21:52,479 --> 01:21:55,400
Speaker 2: And as I said, they don't have a either a

1414
01:21:55,479 --> 01:22:01,800
Speaker 2: military apparatus or a you know, or a a propaganda

1415
01:22:01,840 --> 01:22:04,800
Speaker 2: apparatus that's aimed at us, which most of the other

1416
01:22:04,840 --> 01:22:08,759
Speaker 2: countries do. So don't I don't object to American presidents

1417
01:22:08,800 --> 01:22:12,040
Speaker 2: talking to Saudi leaders. I think what I find troublesome

1418
01:22:12,280 --> 01:22:18,720
Speaker 2: about Trump's relationships is, first of all, his family's enormous

1419
01:22:18,800 --> 01:22:22,479
Speaker 2: conflicts of interest there. You know, his sons are doing

1420
01:22:22,520 --> 01:22:25,680
Speaker 2: deals with Saudi company building hotels.

1421
01:22:25,760 --> 01:22:30,080
Speaker 1: Isn't that a hallmark of abudding autocracy is when the

1422
01:22:30,160 --> 01:22:33,479
Speaker 1: family members of the leader are benefiting financially. I mean,

1423
01:22:33,840 --> 01:22:35,240
Speaker 1: I don't look, I don't want to go down the

1424
01:22:35,320 --> 01:22:37,240
Speaker 1: road that we're there. I mean, I think it's the

1425
01:22:37,280 --> 01:22:41,520
Speaker 1: Republican Party right now that's under this sort of control.

1426
01:22:41,720 --> 01:22:44,640
Speaker 1: It's not yet spread everywhere in this country, but it's

1427
01:22:44,680 --> 01:22:45,920
Speaker 1: certainly the beginnings of it.

1428
01:22:46,360 --> 01:22:48,559
Speaker 2: Oh No, it's it's a it's a hallmark and the

1429
01:22:48,640 --> 01:22:52,839
Speaker 2: personalization of power. The fact that you have to offer

1430
01:22:53,000 --> 01:22:56,280
Speaker 2: a plane or a gold bar, as some Swiss businessmen

1431
01:22:56,320 --> 01:22:58,960
Speaker 2: did a few days ago to the President in order

1432
01:22:59,040 --> 01:23:02,680
Speaker 2: to work create the atmosphere for your trade deal or

1433
01:23:02,680 --> 01:23:03,360
Speaker 2: your negotiation.

1434
01:23:03,400 --> 01:23:05,600
Speaker 1: I mean, let me go back to let me go

1435
01:23:05,640 --> 01:23:09,960
Speaker 1: back to Cotter. They gave a plane, and now they

1436
01:23:09,960 --> 01:23:14,839
Speaker 1: get non they get they get basically NATO like security

1437
01:23:14,880 --> 01:23:18,519
Speaker 1: agreement from the United States, I mean, which is apparently

1438
01:23:18,520 --> 01:23:21,120
Speaker 1: what the Saudis are now asking for. And it is

1439
01:23:21,200 --> 01:23:25,479
Speaker 1: amazing that we gave Cotter a deal that we had

1440
01:23:25,520 --> 01:23:27,479
Speaker 1: yet to give the Saudis. And if I were the

1441
01:23:27,479 --> 01:23:30,920
Speaker 1: Sadi's I feel kind of put off by that, given

1442
01:23:31,560 --> 01:23:33,960
Speaker 1: given what the Saudis have meant to the United States

1443
01:23:33,960 --> 01:23:37,920
Speaker 1: over the years versus what Cutter as a ASM I

1444
01:23:37,920 --> 01:23:38,240
Speaker 1: mean and.

1445
01:23:38,240 --> 01:23:40,599
Speaker 2: Think, I think, when when when the leader of Saudi

1446
01:23:40,600 --> 01:23:43,080
Speaker 2: Arabia walks into the Oval Office and se'es Donald Trump,

1447
01:23:43,439 --> 01:23:45,840
Speaker 2: what does he think he thinks I own this guy.

1448
01:23:46,560 --> 01:23:50,360
Speaker 2: You know, I'm I'm I'm paying for the golf tournament

1449
01:23:50,400 --> 01:23:53,760
Speaker 2: that went on at his golf course. I've given I've

1450
01:23:53,800 --> 01:23:56,200
Speaker 2: put a you know, a billion dollar, two billion dollar,

1451
01:23:56,240 --> 01:24:00,360
Speaker 2: I think investment into his son in law's company, doing

1452
01:24:00,400 --> 01:24:03,720
Speaker 2: business with his family all over the Middle East, and

1453
01:24:03,760 --> 01:24:06,160
Speaker 2: who knows what else. I mean, a lot of Trump's finances,

1454
01:24:06,240 --> 01:24:09,559
Speaker 2: especially the crypto companies, are are pretty opaque. We don't

1455
01:24:09,560 --> 01:24:12,800
Speaker 2: really know who's paying into them and how and he

1456
01:24:13,000 --> 01:24:14,760
Speaker 2: and he does need something from the United States. And

1457
01:24:14,840 --> 01:24:17,360
Speaker 2: Saudi is a country that is very wealthy. Obviously they

1458
01:24:17,360 --> 01:24:20,439
Speaker 2: have all this oil, but it's also very weak, doesn't

1459
01:24:20,479 --> 01:24:23,120
Speaker 2: have much of a military. It can't really defend itself,

1460
01:24:23,160 --> 01:24:26,120
Speaker 2: and so you know, they're in they have a huge

1461
01:24:26,160 --> 01:24:32,559
Speaker 2: interest in buying off the American president and getting something

1462
01:24:32,560 --> 01:24:36,120
Speaker 2: and you know, getting f thirty fives or getting weapons

1463
01:24:36,120 --> 01:24:37,800
Speaker 2: from the insance. I mean, the question here and this

1464
01:24:37,880 --> 01:24:40,639
Speaker 2: is this is you know, returning to original point, is

1465
01:24:41,280 --> 01:24:44,120
Speaker 2: what do the American people get out of it? Why

1466
01:24:44,240 --> 01:24:46,960
Speaker 2: or what do we get out of this relationship with

1467
01:24:46,960 --> 01:24:49,920
Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia? You know, the you know is the when

1468
01:24:49,920 --> 01:24:51,120
Speaker 2: the American president.

1469
01:24:50,880 --> 01:24:53,120
Speaker 1: And they argue stability in the Middle East, I mean,

1470
01:24:53,200 --> 01:24:54,800
Speaker 1: is that is that the best we can offer the

1471
01:24:54,840 --> 01:24:55,559
Speaker 1: American public.

1472
01:24:56,520 --> 01:24:58,880
Speaker 2: I mean, if that's the point, I mean, that's great,

1473
01:24:58,920 --> 01:25:02,160
Speaker 2: and I would support that point. If the point is

1474
01:25:02,200 --> 01:25:05,320
Speaker 2: to enrich the president's family, if that's what we're getting

1475
01:25:05,320 --> 01:25:07,680
Speaker 2: out of it, then I then I'm more worried. So

1476
01:25:07,720 --> 01:25:10,000
Speaker 2: there's always a question with Donald Trump, and it's exactly

1477
01:25:10,000 --> 01:25:14,040
Speaker 2: the same as his negotiations with the Russians. Why is

1478
01:25:14,080 --> 01:25:16,839
Speaker 2: he doing this? Is he doing it for personal benefit,

1479
01:25:16,920 --> 01:25:20,280
Speaker 2: for his family's benefit, or is it in some broader interests?

1480
01:25:20,320 --> 01:25:23,479
Speaker 2: And I just for all the flaws of many previous

1481
01:25:23,520 --> 01:25:27,839
Speaker 2: American presidents, I can't think of one who negotiated abroad,

1482
01:25:28,680 --> 01:25:31,439
Speaker 2: you know, about whom there was that question is who's

1483
01:25:31,479 --> 01:25:32,400
Speaker 2: who's benefiting?

1484
01:25:33,200 --> 01:25:37,080
Speaker 1: And that's the previous president waited to suck up to

1485
01:25:37,120 --> 01:25:40,000
Speaker 1: the Saudi's after they left office for library friends, right,

1486
01:25:40,120 --> 01:25:42,040
Speaker 1: Like I mean, I hate to be that cynical about it,

1487
01:25:42,080 --> 01:25:44,000
Speaker 1: but it was sort of there was almost like an

1488
01:25:44,000 --> 01:25:47,439
Speaker 1: agreed upon, Hey don't don't don't use your contacts there

1489
01:25:47,520 --> 01:25:50,519
Speaker 1: until after you leave to enrich yourself. I mean, I

1490
01:25:50,560 --> 01:25:51,760
Speaker 1: hate to be that cynical, but.

1491
01:25:52,000 --> 01:25:54,200
Speaker 2: Sure, but you didn't you know, even the worst I

1492
01:25:54,200 --> 01:25:56,960
Speaker 2: don't know if you know, even even even the Bush

1493
01:25:56,960 --> 01:25:59,920
Speaker 2: family who had oil interests. I mean, when George W

1494
01:26:00,040 --> 01:26:02,719
Speaker 2: You or his father were negotiating with the Saudis, were

1495
01:26:02,720 --> 01:26:05,960
Speaker 2: they thinking about specific business deals that are that are

1496
01:26:06,000 --> 01:26:16,600
Speaker 2: being negotiated right now? And that I don't think so.

1497
01:26:16,600 --> 01:26:19,720
Speaker 1: So where where are you today when it comes to

1498
01:26:19,760 --> 01:26:23,800
Speaker 1: the fight between democracy and autocracy around the world. I

1499
01:26:23,840 --> 01:26:28,800
Speaker 1: know it feels as if democracy is in retreat, but

1500
01:26:28,880 --> 01:26:34,960
Speaker 1: it's not as if autocracy is succeeding either, right, I mean,

1501
01:26:34,960 --> 01:26:38,080
Speaker 1: you do have a Chinese economy that is not great.

1502
01:26:38,200 --> 01:26:41,080
Speaker 1: You have the youth unemployment, so you know this idea

1503
01:26:41,120 --> 01:26:44,920
Speaker 1: that whose system is more stable, whose system is better?

1504
01:26:44,960 --> 01:26:48,040
Speaker 1: It's not as if these autocratic systems are having a

1505
01:26:48,080 --> 01:26:49,400
Speaker 1: golden age themselves.

1506
01:26:50,280 --> 01:26:53,600
Speaker 2: I would actually describe the contest from the beginning a

1507
01:26:53,600 --> 01:26:56,400
Speaker 2: little differently in that, Okay, this is not so much

1508
01:26:56,560 --> 01:27:01,559
Speaker 2: a contest between autocracies and democracy, because there are lots

1509
01:27:01,560 --> 01:27:03,960
Speaker 2: of different kinds. We just talked about. The Saudis and

1510
01:27:03,960 --> 01:27:06,559
Speaker 2: the Russians are quite different. It's on this is really

1511
01:27:06,600 --> 01:27:10,320
Speaker 2: a contest between This is a war of ideas of

1512
01:27:10,600 --> 01:27:16,479
Speaker 2: autocratic ideas against the ideas of liberal democracy, and that

1513
01:27:16,600 --> 01:27:20,719
Speaker 2: contest is taking place inside every country on the planet,

1514
01:27:20,960 --> 01:27:25,080
Speaker 2: including ours. So it happened in most European countries, even

1515
01:27:25,080 --> 01:27:29,280
Speaker 2: if they're formal democracies, they have autocratic political parties or movements.

1516
01:27:30,040 --> 01:27:33,240
Speaker 2: And by the same token, a lot of dictatorships have

1517
01:27:33,479 --> 01:27:37,840
Speaker 2: within them, you know, dissidents or or people who would

1518
01:27:37,920 --> 01:27:39,200
Speaker 2: like to end.

1519
01:27:39,120 --> 01:27:41,200
Speaker 1: Well, the woman who just won the Nobel Peace Prize

1520
01:27:41,240 --> 01:27:43,799
Speaker 1: in Venezuela, right, absolutely, she's a great example.

1521
01:27:43,960 --> 01:27:47,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, interviewed her several times. Actually in Venezuela, the democratic

1522
01:27:47,280 --> 01:27:51,120
Speaker 2: opposition won an election through this extraordinary feet of organization

1523
01:27:51,240 --> 01:27:53,960
Speaker 2: and then proved that they want it. So, you know,

1524
01:27:54,000 --> 01:27:55,679
Speaker 2: so this is a this is a war of ideas.

1525
01:27:55,680 --> 01:27:57,519
Speaker 2: You know, do we want to live in political systems

1526
01:27:57,520 --> 01:28:03,040
Speaker 2: where one person or party or family controls you know,

1527
01:28:03,400 --> 01:28:07,559
Speaker 2: the media with no checks and balances, uh, you know,

1528
01:28:07,960 --> 01:28:12,479
Speaker 2: decides how the legal system works, doesn't offer people rights?

1529
01:28:12,560 --> 01:28:14,200
Speaker 2: Or do we want to live in a system where

1530
01:28:14,240 --> 01:28:17,680
Speaker 2: there are rights and there are independent institutions independent of

1531
01:28:17,720 --> 01:28:20,280
Speaker 2: the of the of the ruling party or the leader.

1532
01:28:20,360 --> 01:28:23,760
Speaker 2: And you know, and it does feel right now, I think,

1533
01:28:23,840 --> 01:28:26,040
Speaker 2: especially because what's going on in the United States, like

1534
01:28:27,200 --> 01:28:32,800
Speaker 2: the democratic arguments are losing, But there's also no inevitability

1535
01:28:32,960 --> 01:28:36,559
Speaker 2: that you know, history doesn't work like that that you know,

1536
01:28:36,640 --> 01:28:40,600
Speaker 2: the you know, everything is swinging in one direction, and

1537
01:28:40,640 --> 01:28:43,320
Speaker 2: that's how it's going to go. You know, the fight

1538
01:28:43,479 --> 01:28:46,320
Speaker 2: is on, and the fight is inside our country, it's

1539
01:28:46,320 --> 01:28:51,160
Speaker 2: inside Russia, it's inside Ukraine. You know, the and the

1540
01:28:51,240 --> 01:28:53,960
Speaker 2: and the and the question is really whose arguments are

1541
01:28:54,000 --> 01:28:57,240
Speaker 2: going to win? And how do we and how do

1542
01:28:57,320 --> 01:28:58,839
Speaker 2: we express that victory.

1543
01:28:59,400 --> 01:29:01,920
Speaker 1: What do you think of the role that Silicon Valley

1544
01:29:02,439 --> 01:29:05,639
Speaker 1: is now sort of playing as sort of infusing itself

1545
01:29:05,640 --> 01:29:09,120
Speaker 1: with this government in ways that we've not seen an

1546
01:29:09,160 --> 01:29:11,920
Speaker 1: industry do arguably in a hundred years, right, not since

1547
01:29:12,360 --> 01:29:17,479
Speaker 1: the industrialists of the early twentieth century. And you know,

1548
01:29:17,520 --> 01:29:20,000
Speaker 1: I think about this, you know, the philosophies that we've

1549
01:29:20,000 --> 01:29:22,519
Speaker 1: heard Peter Tiele espouse. I mean, you know, this is

1550
01:29:22,560 --> 01:29:24,520
Speaker 1: somebody who does not believe in liberal democracy.

1551
01:29:25,240 --> 01:29:26,240
Speaker 2: He's very clear about it.

1552
01:29:26,640 --> 01:29:29,439
Speaker 1: Right. I guess we should be happy that he's honest

1553
01:29:29,439 --> 01:29:32,519
Speaker 1: about it. But you know, I think Peter Peter till

1554
01:29:32,600 --> 01:29:35,080
Speaker 1: is one of the most dangerous Americans in the country

1555
01:29:35,680 --> 01:29:38,400
Speaker 1: with his ideas and wealth combined and the access to

1556
01:29:38,479 --> 01:29:44,719
Speaker 1: power that he has already purchased. What should we be concerned?

1557
01:29:44,800 --> 01:29:47,120
Speaker 1: I mean, I sort of have faith in our democracy

1558
01:29:47,120 --> 01:29:49,360
Speaker 1: that the pitchforks are coming for Silicon Valley and they

1559
01:29:49,360 --> 01:29:51,719
Speaker 1: don't fully I don't think they fully see it yet,

1560
01:29:53,080 --> 01:29:54,840
Speaker 1: and that you know, we're going to have a Teddy

1561
01:29:54,880 --> 01:29:58,920
Speaker 1: Roosevelt moment here, But how do you see the role

1562
01:29:58,960 --> 01:30:04,840
Speaker 1: they're playing in this sort of competition between democracy and autocracy.

1563
01:30:05,400 --> 01:30:08,680
Speaker 2: So Silicon Valley has a kind of power that no

1564
01:30:08,720 --> 01:30:12,080
Speaker 2: one has had before. And this is the power to

1565
01:30:14,080 --> 01:30:18,400
Speaker 2: influence I wouldn't say control, but influence and manipulate feelings

1566
01:30:18,479 --> 01:30:23,280
Speaker 2: and emotions and information. And they you know, they have

1567
01:30:23,400 --> 01:30:27,280
Speaker 2: these tools, you know, the you know, the algorithms that directly.

1568
01:30:27,080 --> 01:30:29,880
Speaker 1: At times we're talking about science fiction sometimes with them.

1569
01:30:30,000 --> 01:30:31,759
Speaker 1: But yes, anyway, no, I mean, but.

1570
01:30:31,800 --> 01:30:34,600
Speaker 2: You know, most people in America, if you're you know,

1571
01:30:34,640 --> 01:30:37,160
Speaker 2: if you're not someone who looks for news in other words,

1572
01:30:37,200 --> 01:30:40,000
Speaker 2: you click on the New York Times website or or

1573
01:30:40,000 --> 01:30:42,880
Speaker 2: even the Fox News website. If you're someone who just

1574
01:30:43,000 --> 01:30:46,400
Speaker 2: passively receives news, which I think is most people, then

1575
01:30:47,000 --> 01:30:50,799
Speaker 2: they decide what you see. You know, then your your

1576
01:30:51,280 --> 01:30:56,120
Speaker 2: preference for one kind of washing powder or one kind

1577
01:30:56,160 --> 01:30:59,719
Speaker 2: of shampoo might lead you to receive a political ad

1578
01:30:59,800 --> 01:31:02,040
Speaker 2: that people who like that kind of washing powder or

1579
01:31:02,080 --> 01:31:06,559
Speaker 2: shampoo get or or or a clip or you know,

1580
01:31:06,680 --> 01:31:10,960
Speaker 2: or somebody expounding something on Instagram. And so we haven't

1581
01:31:10,960 --> 01:31:14,559
Speaker 2: never hed. So so their their decisions are really shaping

1582
01:31:14,640 --> 01:31:17,519
Speaker 2: what it is that people see and perceive. And that

1583
01:31:17,600 --> 01:31:20,519
Speaker 2: does mean that they have, you know, something that I

1584
01:31:20,520 --> 01:31:25,240
Speaker 2: don't think anybody has had before. And actually in real autocracy,

1585
01:31:25,320 --> 01:31:28,559
Speaker 2: So in China, that power is controlled by the state,

1586
01:31:28,800 --> 01:31:31,559
Speaker 2: and the state, you know, they they they own that power.

1587
01:31:31,600 --> 01:31:33,800
Speaker 2: And in Russia they're seeking to own that power that

1588
01:31:33,880 --> 01:31:36,760
Speaker 2: Russians haven't. Their system is not as sophisticated as the Chinese,

1589
01:31:36,800 --> 01:31:38,960
Speaker 2: but they are trying to cut people off from Western

1590
01:31:39,800 --> 01:31:42,960
Speaker 2: Western social media. And in our country, you know, the

1591
01:31:43,040 --> 01:31:45,160
Speaker 2: idea was originally that this was a power that would

1592
01:31:45,200 --> 01:31:48,400
Speaker 2: be given to private companies and it would be therefore benign,

1593
01:31:48,520 --> 01:31:51,960
Speaker 2: and it would be divided between several groups and it

1594
01:31:52,000 --> 01:31:54,439
Speaker 2: wouldn't you know, we we would we would take care

1595
01:31:54,439 --> 01:31:56,720
Speaker 2: of it that way, and I think we're failing. I mean,

1596
01:31:56,920 --> 01:31:59,240
Speaker 2: and it's important that you mentioned Teddy Roosevelt because what

1597
01:31:59,280 --> 01:32:02,120
Speaker 2: did he do He broke up monopolies or he spoke

1598
01:32:02,120 --> 01:32:05,439
Speaker 2: about they were called trusts them And we are at

1599
01:32:05,439 --> 01:32:09,599
Speaker 2: a point where there is time to ask whether these

1600
01:32:09,600 --> 01:32:16,240
Speaker 2: companies have too much power and whether they're truly patriotic companies.

1601
01:32:16,280 --> 01:32:19,679
Speaker 2: Do they want the health of American democracy? Are they

1602
01:32:19,720 --> 01:32:22,960
Speaker 2: dedicated to making sure that we have better debates and

1603
01:32:23,000 --> 01:32:25,360
Speaker 2: better consensus and better information? I don't think so.

1604
01:32:25,960 --> 01:32:30,160
Speaker 1: I had an interesting conversation with a recently retired general

1605
01:32:31,240 --> 01:32:33,720
Speaker 1: who was sort of had a lot of insight in

1606
01:32:33,760 --> 01:32:39,240
Speaker 1: the first Trump term, and he expressed a concern. He says,

1607
01:32:39,240 --> 01:32:43,719
Speaker 1: you know, with the development of nuclear power, the government

1608
01:32:44,439 --> 01:32:47,920
Speaker 1: essentially was infused in the process in many ways. The

1609
01:32:48,000 --> 01:32:50,839
Speaker 1: Manhattan Project, right, it was a creation of the government.

1610
01:32:52,000 --> 01:32:55,040
Speaker 1: The development of the Internet, you know, came out of

1611
01:32:55,080 --> 01:32:59,080
Speaker 1: the Defense Department. He said, we're making this massive technological

1612
01:32:59,200 --> 01:33:04,160
Speaker 1: shift in our soci society where we have completely outsourced

1613
01:33:04,200 --> 01:33:06,240
Speaker 1: it to the private sector. That is not the way

1614
01:33:06,360 --> 01:33:10,600
Speaker 1: any of the other major technological shifts that altered the

1615
01:33:10,640 --> 01:33:15,639
Speaker 1: course of this country on technology has ever happened. And

1616
01:33:15,680 --> 01:33:20,120
Speaker 1: that he expressed, like that is the he thought that

1617
01:33:20,280 --> 01:33:23,640
Speaker 1: was such a higher risk and we haven't fully appreciated

1618
01:33:24,880 --> 01:33:27,799
Speaker 1: concentrating all that power into this private entity.

1619
01:33:28,720 --> 01:33:31,840
Speaker 2: The Atlantic had a good article recently about NASA and

1620
01:33:31,880 --> 01:33:36,680
Speaker 2: the difference between NASA and SpaceX. And NASA, which was

1621
01:33:36,760 --> 01:33:42,679
Speaker 2: our premier space institution in the United States, was people

1622
01:33:42,720 --> 01:33:44,759
Speaker 2: went to work for it because they were public servants

1623
01:33:44,800 --> 01:33:46,599
Speaker 2: and they were doing something on behalf of the United

1624
01:33:46,640 --> 01:33:50,320
Speaker 2: States of America. And SpaceX is a private company owned

1625
01:33:50,360 --> 01:33:53,920
Speaker 2: by Elon Musk, and people work in it to make

1626
01:33:53,960 --> 01:34:01,000
Speaker 2: money or the primary goal is not the public interest.

1627
01:34:01,400 --> 01:34:03,880
Speaker 2: The primary goal is to earn money for shareholders. And

1628
01:34:03,880 --> 01:34:04,559
Speaker 2: that is different.

1629
01:34:06,120 --> 01:34:09,880
Speaker 1: What is you know, how much of a how much

1630
01:34:09,920 --> 01:34:13,480
Speaker 1: of a danger do you think we are in domestically

1631
01:34:14,880 --> 01:34:17,920
Speaker 1: because of this kind of concentrated power. I mean, looks

1632
01:34:18,280 --> 01:34:21,040
Speaker 1: on the outside, like Silicon Valley decided they made a

1633
01:34:21,080 --> 01:34:25,479
Speaker 1: bet and they said, well, Trump's more malleable than the

1634
01:34:25,520 --> 01:34:27,760
Speaker 1: Democrats on this one, so we're going to go all

1635
01:34:27,760 --> 01:34:30,120
Speaker 1: in here, you know. And it was the crypto crowd

1636
01:34:30,240 --> 01:34:33,479
Speaker 1: plus the AI crowd, and they and and they've pretty

1637
01:34:33,560 --> 01:34:38,200
Speaker 1: much gotten carte blanche from this administration. That seems to

1638
01:34:38,240 --> 01:34:40,000
Speaker 1: be step one of a scary development.

1639
01:34:41,479 --> 01:34:43,559
Speaker 2: Look, I think what they're looking for is not to

1640
01:34:43,600 --> 01:34:46,559
Speaker 2: be regulated you know, they're looking for They don't want

1641
01:34:46,600 --> 01:34:50,880
Speaker 2: any any anything cramping their power, any any trust law,

1642
01:34:51,000 --> 01:34:55,679
Speaker 2: any other kind of law, anything that would question trust.

1643
01:34:55,720 --> 01:34:59,360
Speaker 1: Their development of social media really really worked out well

1644
01:35:00,000 --> 01:35:02,559
Speaker 1: without regulation, so sure, let's let them do this.

1645
01:35:04,040 --> 01:35:07,559
Speaker 2: No no, But they know there's a backlash, They've heard it,

1646
01:35:07,760 --> 01:35:11,360
Speaker 2: and they're what they're now doing is trying to stave

1647
01:35:11,439 --> 01:35:14,040
Speaker 2: off the consequences. And it's pretty pernicious. So it's not

1648
01:35:14,120 --> 01:35:17,600
Speaker 2: just here. They're also working pretty hard in Europe to

1649
01:35:17,640 --> 01:35:20,320
Speaker 2: make sure that they aren't regulated by the European Union,

1650
01:35:20,640 --> 01:35:23,599
Speaker 2: which is probably the only institution left on the planet

1651
01:35:23,600 --> 01:35:27,679
Speaker 2: that could regulate them. And they're even to the extent

1652
01:35:27,720 --> 01:35:32,800
Speaker 2: of Musk supporting anti European political parties in Germany and elsewhere.

1653
01:35:33,080 --> 01:35:37,360
Speaker 2: So they're very conscious of this, the coming backlash, and

1654
01:35:37,400 --> 01:35:42,200
Speaker 2: they're preparing very hard to prevent anything from hampering their power.

1655
01:35:42,200 --> 01:35:44,040
Speaker 2: And I think it's something that would be very useful

1656
01:35:44,080 --> 01:35:45,800
Speaker 2: for more Americans to be aware of.

1657
01:35:46,600 --> 01:35:49,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, I think I actually have I do believe

1658
01:35:49,360 --> 01:35:51,439
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty eight presidential election is going to be

1659
01:35:51,439 --> 01:35:54,120
Speaker 1: more centered on this, you know, be er of AI,

1660
01:35:54,439 --> 01:35:57,760
Speaker 1: job displacement, all of that is going to sort of concentrate.

1661
01:35:58,240 --> 01:35:59,920
Speaker 1: I think the conversation a little bit on this, but

1662
01:36:00,040 --> 01:36:02,320
Speaker 1: let me get you out of here actually on some

1663
01:36:02,800 --> 01:36:07,200
Speaker 1: on Europe, which really sort of we go back the

1664
01:36:07,200 --> 01:36:13,640
Speaker 1: the unintended consequence of Donald Trump's quasi isolationism. I say

1665
01:36:13,720 --> 01:36:17,200
Speaker 1: quasi because it's not really it's more transactionalism. But let's

1666
01:36:17,280 --> 01:36:22,960
Speaker 1: let's say the the perception of the pullback, this feels

1667
01:36:23,000 --> 01:36:25,760
Speaker 1: like it's made Europe stronger than ever, and that the

1668
01:36:25,800 --> 01:36:28,000
Speaker 1: EU is now a thing, and that native that there

1669
01:36:28,080 --> 01:36:31,400
Speaker 1: is that Europe. You know that that you're it was.

1670
01:36:31,479 --> 01:36:33,439
Speaker 1: This has been a wake up call to Europe and

1671
01:36:33,479 --> 01:36:36,640
Speaker 1: that there is a As you said, look, Europe may

1672
01:36:36,680 --> 01:36:39,519
Speaker 1: be able to just keep supporting Ukraine regardless of what

1673
01:36:39,560 --> 01:36:42,960
Speaker 1: the United States decides. The strengthening of Europe can it

1674
01:36:43,120 --> 01:36:46,760
Speaker 1: hold or are we going to see cracks because of

1675
01:36:47,479 --> 01:36:51,320
Speaker 1: various you know, domestic you know, right wing movements in Germany,

1676
01:36:52,040 --> 01:36:54,240
Speaker 1: populist movements in the UK, et cetera.

1677
01:36:55,320 --> 01:36:59,320
Speaker 2: So Europe is under an enormous amount of pressure from

1678
01:36:59,600 --> 01:37:03,920
Speaker 2: Russia U through not just the war but sabotage in

1679
01:37:04,040 --> 01:37:08,360
Speaker 2: propaganda campaigns. It's also now under pressure from US, as

1680
01:37:08,360 --> 01:37:12,719
Speaker 2: we've just discussed. I mean you know, from from Elon

1681
01:37:12,840 --> 01:37:17,240
Speaker 2: Musk who wants to fund anti European parties to some

1682
01:37:17,280 --> 01:37:19,320
Speaker 2: extent from the Trump administration. I mean, we'll see where

1683
01:37:19,320 --> 01:37:23,960
Speaker 2: that goes. And it's also you know, it's because it's

1684
01:37:23,960 --> 01:37:27,479
Speaker 2: a it's a confederation. It's not a federation like we are.

1685
01:37:27,920 --> 01:37:31,040
Speaker 2: It's it's has you know, there has kind of permanent

1686
01:37:31,080 --> 01:37:34,280
Speaker 2: problems with getting everybody on board that don't ever really

1687
01:37:34,680 --> 01:37:38,200
Speaker 2: go away. Having said that, though, there's something in what

1688
01:37:38,280 --> 01:37:42,160
Speaker 2: you're saying in that if you're an investor from anywhere

1689
01:37:42,160 --> 01:37:44,320
Speaker 2: in the world, actually, if you're from you know, South

1690
01:37:44,360 --> 01:37:47,719
Speaker 2: Korea or France or the United States, and you're looking

1691
01:37:47,720 --> 01:37:49,599
Speaker 2: around the world and you're looking for a place that's

1692
01:37:49,600 --> 01:37:55,080
Speaker 2: stable and safe and has predictable laws and predictable teriff

1693
01:37:55,160 --> 01:37:59,640
Speaker 2: rates and you know, respects contracts, I mean, maybe you

1694
01:37:59,640 --> 01:38:02,640
Speaker 2: would out start to choose Europe. Europe. Europe has a

1695
01:38:03,280 --> 01:38:05,840
Speaker 2: you know, Europe has a rule of law culture that

1696
01:38:06,160 --> 01:38:08,960
Speaker 2: is very strong and very deep and goes right to

1697
01:38:09,040 --> 01:38:11,160
Speaker 2: the heart of what the European Union is and what

1698
01:38:11,240 --> 01:38:15,200
Speaker 2: most modern European states are. And you might think this

1699
01:38:15,280 --> 01:38:17,599
Speaker 2: is this is the place to go. I mean, Europe

1700
01:38:18,240 --> 01:38:23,639
Speaker 2: did become you know, they were so sure of their

1701
01:38:23,680 --> 01:38:26,120
Speaker 2: relationship with America, and they were so sure that America

1702
01:38:26,160 --> 01:38:28,040
Speaker 2: would defend them, and they were so sure that America

1703
01:38:28,080 --> 01:38:30,400
Speaker 2: was a friend and that shared their values by the

1704
01:38:30,400 --> 01:38:30,840
Speaker 2: way they were.

1705
01:38:31,280 --> 01:38:32,880
Speaker 1: Weren't you so sure? Were it not?

1706
01:38:33,960 --> 01:38:36,599
Speaker 2: I mean, actually European passport, so I should I should

1707
01:38:36,640 --> 01:38:39,880
Speaker 2: say be too, so, you know, but they let a

1708
01:38:39,880 --> 01:38:42,240
Speaker 2: lot of things slide. They didn't develop their own tech

1709
01:38:42,280 --> 01:38:45,439
Speaker 2: industry because you know, they were fine with what the

1710
01:38:45,479 --> 01:38:49,080
Speaker 2: Americans were doing. They were you know, they have a

1711
01:38:49,120 --> 01:38:51,640
Speaker 2: defense industry, but they didn't care as much about it.

1712
01:38:51,680 --> 01:38:54,000
Speaker 2: And a lot of that has now shifted. If you

1713
01:38:54,000 --> 01:38:56,759
Speaker 2: go to any kind of confidence about anything in Europe,

1714
01:38:56,840 --> 01:38:58,960
Speaker 2: now it'll be about how do we build our own

1715
01:38:59,000 --> 01:39:02,080
Speaker 2: tech industry, how we build a new weapons industry. And

1716
01:39:02,120 --> 01:39:05,559
Speaker 2: so you're about to see that transformation, I think going

1717
01:39:05,560 --> 01:39:07,120
Speaker 2: across every European country.

1718
01:39:07,560 --> 01:39:09,920
Speaker 1: All right, let me get you to answer the question

1719
01:39:10,040 --> 01:39:12,160
Speaker 1: I get and I'm sure you get it all the time.

1720
01:39:12,680 --> 01:39:14,840
Speaker 1: What's your level of concern about the state of the

1721
01:39:14,880 --> 01:39:16,000
Speaker 1: American democracy?

1722
01:39:17,520 --> 01:39:21,160
Speaker 2: In my case, it's very high. I'm afraid it's very high.

1723
01:39:21,240 --> 01:39:24,960
Speaker 2: I mean, it's not you know, I don't think any

1724
01:39:25,080 --> 01:39:27,800
Speaker 2: story is ever over and nothing is ever too late.

1725
01:39:28,800 --> 01:39:33,320
Speaker 2: But I do think that the combination of the use

1726
01:39:33,400 --> 01:39:36,519
Speaker 2: the way ICE is being used as a pilm paramilitary force,

1727
01:39:37,360 --> 01:39:44,040
Speaker 2: the attacks on you know, the president's constant attacks on journalism,

1728
01:39:44,400 --> 01:39:47,639
Speaker 2: the attacks on research and science and universities, the attempts

1729
01:39:47,720 --> 01:39:51,519
Speaker 2: to capture culture, the firing of the civil service, the

1730
01:39:51,560 --> 01:39:55,320
Speaker 2: attempts to destroy an independent civil service, you know, all

1731
01:39:55,360 --> 01:39:58,519
Speaker 2: those things packaged together. And this is for me, where

1732
01:39:58,560 --> 01:40:01,720
Speaker 2: I've written about these kinds of situations before. This is

1733
01:40:02,360 --> 01:40:05,679
Speaker 2: this looks to me like an assault on a democratic

1734
01:40:05,760 --> 01:40:09,040
Speaker 2: political system. And it also looks to me like it

1735
01:40:09,080 --> 01:40:12,680
Speaker 2: could be their way of preparing for at least to

1736
01:40:12,720 --> 01:40:15,800
Speaker 2: try to shape the midterms, and in ways we haven't

1737
01:40:15,840 --> 01:40:16,360
Speaker 2: seen before.

1738
01:40:16,400 --> 01:40:20,559
Speaker 1: And I Hungry the closest sort of corollary here, like

1739
01:40:20,560 --> 01:40:21,479
Speaker 1: what happened in Hungary.

1740
01:40:21,560 --> 01:40:24,600
Speaker 2: I mean, actually in Hungary, the Hungry, you know, the

1741
01:40:25,000 --> 01:40:27,960
Speaker 2: primership of Hungary didn't move this fast, and he didn't

1742
01:40:29,000 --> 01:40:32,600
Speaker 2: assault institutions so quickly, and he didn't, you know, the

1743
01:40:33,000 --> 01:40:35,880
Speaker 2: speed of change that we've seen here. I think it's

1744
01:40:35,880 --> 01:40:39,840
Speaker 2: pretty unprecedented. And there's some aspects of it that are unprecedented, like,

1745
01:40:39,920 --> 01:40:43,559
Speaker 2: for example, the attack on science, on the scientific research system,

1746
01:40:43,600 --> 01:40:47,120
Speaker 2: and on the vaccine research. I mean, there's no other

1747
01:40:47,479 --> 01:40:51,439
Speaker 2: The Chinese don't attack their own research institutions, you know,

1748
01:40:51,479 --> 01:40:54,559
Speaker 2: they value them. Neither do the Russians. I mean maybe

1749
01:40:54,560 --> 01:40:56,920
Speaker 2: they politicize them in some ways. It's a different subject,

1750
01:40:57,000 --> 01:41:00,479
Speaker 2: but there's some pieces of it that seem pretty radical

1751
01:41:00,479 --> 01:41:04,040
Speaker 2: to me and don't even have an echo in recent

1752
01:41:04,200 --> 01:41:05,320
Speaker 2: in our world history.

1753
01:41:06,520 --> 01:41:09,719
Speaker 1: Well, on that note, with Thanksgiving a week away, there's

1754
01:41:09,840 --> 01:41:11,320
Speaker 1: there's something to give thanks for.

1755
01:41:11,840 --> 01:41:14,160
Speaker 2: Well, and you can discuss it with your with your

1756
01:41:14,200 --> 01:41:17,080
Speaker 2: relatives and cheer up the conversation. No, but let me

1757
01:41:17,160 --> 01:41:19,280
Speaker 2: let me let me end on that note, actually, because

1758
01:41:19,280 --> 01:41:22,040
Speaker 2: again the reason I talk about this stuff, and I'm

1759
01:41:22,080 --> 01:41:24,280
Speaker 2: sure this is true of you as well, because I

1760
01:41:24,400 --> 01:41:26,880
Speaker 2: want people to be aware of it and understand where

1761
01:41:26,880 --> 01:41:29,120
Speaker 2: it could go. That doesn't mean it has to go

1762
01:41:29,200 --> 01:41:32,080
Speaker 2: that way, but the more people are aware, the more

1763
01:41:32,240 --> 01:41:33,360
Speaker 2: prepared they are.

1764
01:41:33,240 --> 01:41:37,040
Speaker 1: To do something about And the more people that are aware,

1765
01:41:37,320 --> 01:41:40,360
Speaker 1: I mean, that's when I have faith in our in

1766
01:41:40,400 --> 01:41:44,360
Speaker 1: the democracy. Eventually, you know, I'm like Churchill, right, we're

1767
01:41:44,360 --> 01:41:47,200
Speaker 1: going to exhaust all these other and let's just hope

1768
01:41:47,200 --> 01:41:50,639
Speaker 1: the system is still there for us to express our

1769
01:41:50,680 --> 01:41:54,479
Speaker 1: concern when the time of all it comes. That's that's

1770
01:41:54,520 --> 01:41:57,479
Speaker 1: where I where I get my optimism too. And Apple

1771
01:41:57,479 --> 01:41:59,759
Speaker 1: Bomb this, I appreciate the time.

1772
01:42:00,160 --> 01:42:00,599
Speaker 2: Thank you.

1773
01:42:08,600 --> 01:42:11,719
Speaker 1: Well. I certainly feel like I said at the start

1774
01:42:11,800 --> 01:42:17,639
Speaker 1: of that interview, I always feel better informed and better

1775
01:42:17,760 --> 01:42:21,480
Speaker 1: educated about a situation after I either read Anne Applebomb

1776
01:42:22,120 --> 01:42:24,360
Speaker 1: or listen to Anne Applebom and I hope you feel

1777
01:42:24,360 --> 01:42:27,400
Speaker 1: the same way. All right, let's get to a few questions.

1778
01:42:28,280 --> 01:42:29,880
Speaker 1: I'm going to try to get through three or four

1779
01:42:30,040 --> 01:42:35,880
Speaker 1: here before I get to my college football preview slash

1780
01:42:36,160 --> 01:42:39,559
Speaker 1: reaction to the rankings. It's not going to be as

1781
01:42:39,680 --> 01:42:44,120
Speaker 1: ranty as you might suspect. I'll let you know. This

1782
01:42:44,160 --> 01:42:46,800
Speaker 1: next question comes from Brian and he gives me a

1783
01:42:46,800 --> 01:42:48,639
Speaker 1: little let cheese or reeve, which we know what that

1784
01:42:48,720 --> 01:42:51,640
Speaker 1: means if you know you know, Hey, Chuck, my new

1785
01:42:51,640 --> 01:42:54,080
Speaker 1: favorite part of the podcast is the Weekly Time Machine.

1786
01:42:54,400 --> 01:42:56,160
Speaker 1: I like hearing that, you know what. It's kind of

1787
01:42:56,200 --> 01:42:59,120
Speaker 1: becoming my favorite segment to produce. I thoroughly enjoyed this

1788
01:42:59,120 --> 01:43:00,960
Speaker 1: week's topic of the end of World War One. He's

1789
01:43:01,000 --> 01:43:03,200
Speaker 1: referring to last week anyway, got me thinking back to

1790
01:43:03,240 --> 01:43:04,960
Speaker 1: what I was taught And you're exactly right and focused

1791
01:43:04,960 --> 01:43:07,400
Speaker 1: on German surrender, the harsh reparations, and now that led

1792
01:43:07,439 --> 01:43:08,920
Speaker 1: to the rise of Hitler in World War Two. I'd

1793
01:43:08,920 --> 01:43:10,840
Speaker 1: love to go deeper into the fall of the Ottoman

1794
01:43:10,880 --> 01:43:12,519
Speaker 1: Empire and how it led us to where we are today.

1795
01:43:12,520 --> 01:43:15,479
Speaker 1: Any books to recommend on it? Thanks, you know what

1796
01:43:16,080 --> 01:43:18,479
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I don't have them. I don't have any

1797
01:43:18,479 --> 01:43:21,599
Speaker 1: good books right now on that I want to do

1798
01:43:21,640 --> 01:43:23,960
Speaker 1: some You would think here, why don't you do the

1799
01:43:23,960 --> 01:43:25,920
Speaker 1: research before you read the questions? That's not how I

1800
01:43:26,000 --> 01:43:29,840
Speaker 1: roll guys now, But you know what my substack and

1801
01:43:29,880 --> 01:43:34,400
Speaker 1: this is a good way and yes, this is my

1802
01:43:34,400 --> 01:43:36,400
Speaker 1: my conspiratory way to get more of you to go

1803
01:43:36,479 --> 01:43:39,320
Speaker 1: subscribe to my free substack. I am not going to

1804
01:43:39,360 --> 01:43:42,840
Speaker 1: ever put it behind a paywall. And I know that

1805
01:43:42,880 --> 01:43:47,760
Speaker 1: substack sometimes lowers the algorithm on free substacks, but I

1806
01:43:47,800 --> 01:43:51,120
Speaker 1: don't care. I am I want to be totally ad supported.

1807
01:43:51,240 --> 01:43:53,680
Speaker 1: I don't want to be captured by an audience and

1808
01:43:53,760 --> 01:43:56,760
Speaker 1: worried about an audience. So this is a free and

1809
01:43:56,800 --> 01:43:59,640
Speaker 1: it will be free. I will not be you know,

1810
01:43:59,720 --> 01:44:06,000
Speaker 1: sneak making you pay down the road here, but this week,

1811
01:44:06,040 --> 01:44:07,840
Speaker 1: for what it's worth, I have a big column on

1812
01:44:07,880 --> 01:44:12,280
Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom and sort of what explains why Gavin Newsom's

1813
01:44:12,360 --> 01:44:16,240
Speaker 1: rise in the twenty twenty eight sweepstakes, if you will.

1814
01:44:17,240 --> 01:44:19,400
Speaker 1: But in there I also do I did some book

1815
01:44:19,439 --> 01:44:22,840
Speaker 1: recommendations on James Garfield and what's been happening with that

1816
01:44:23,160 --> 01:44:26,480
Speaker 1: mini series Death by Lightning. I am this coming Tuesday,

1817
01:44:27,040 --> 01:44:32,040
Speaker 1: going to make one of my sidebars segments of that,

1818
01:44:32,360 --> 01:44:35,080
Speaker 1: and I update that newsletter every Tuesday, and this one

1819
01:44:35,560 --> 01:44:40,240
Speaker 1: I will put my favorite Automan Empire books. I just

1820
01:44:40,280 --> 01:44:41,680
Speaker 1: don't have a good list in front of me. I

1821
01:44:41,680 --> 01:44:44,799
Speaker 1: want to get it right, and you know there's different

1822
01:44:44,840 --> 01:44:48,360
Speaker 1: aspects of it. You know, there's some good books just

1823
01:44:48,400 --> 01:44:51,600
Speaker 1: about sort of Turkey and sort of the rise of

1824
01:44:52,479 --> 01:44:56,559
Speaker 1: Turkey post World War One. Obviously plenty of books I've

1825
01:44:56,600 --> 01:45:00,799
Speaker 1: been sort of I'm probably over subscribe. I've done books

1826
01:45:00,840 --> 01:45:04,200
Speaker 1: about sort of Israel before nineteen forty eight, and there'll

1827
01:45:04,240 --> 01:45:07,320
Speaker 1: be some in there. But I will put that together.

1828
01:45:07,360 --> 01:45:10,280
Speaker 1: I think that's a nice public service and a very

1829
01:45:10,360 --> 01:45:15,000
Speaker 1: fair request. Next question comes from Aaron from Skokee, Illinois.

1830
01:45:15,840 --> 01:45:17,479
Speaker 1: I probably said this to you before. I think you've

1831
01:45:17,479 --> 01:45:20,280
Speaker 1: written in before, because when I see Skokie, I still

1832
01:45:20,320 --> 01:45:23,360
Speaker 1: think of one of my early memories as a kid

1833
01:45:24,439 --> 01:45:26,760
Speaker 1: was that clan march in Skokie back in the day,

1834
01:45:28,040 --> 01:45:31,519
Speaker 1: and this is similar theme. He goes, I was fascinated

1835
01:45:31,560 --> 01:45:33,240
Speaker 1: by your recent commentary in World War One. As a

1836
01:45:33,240 --> 01:45:35,040
Speaker 1: gen xer, I only learned about the war through an

1837
01:45:35,040 --> 01:45:37,360
Speaker 1: American lens and didn't grasp the full extent of the

1838
01:45:37,400 --> 01:45:40,479
Speaker 1: Ottoman Empire's role or the consequences of European powers carving

1839
01:45:40,520 --> 01:45:42,680
Speaker 1: up the Middle East. And here again, do you have

1840
01:45:42,720 --> 01:45:45,760
Speaker 1: any nonfiction book recommendations that offer a broader global perspective

1841
01:45:45,800 --> 01:45:47,600
Speaker 1: on that war. I've always been a history buff, but

1842
01:45:47,640 --> 01:45:49,880
Speaker 1: World War One tends to get overshadowed by World War Two.

1843
01:45:50,360 --> 01:45:53,080
Speaker 1: I'm so happy that this is the reaction I've gotten

1844
01:45:53,160 --> 01:45:57,960
Speaker 1: for what it's worth. Aaron, same answer that I just

1845
01:45:57,960 --> 01:45:59,320
Speaker 1: want to prove to all of you that I read

1846
01:45:59,360 --> 01:46:01,679
Speaker 1: your questions and that we do this both Aaron and Brian.

1847
01:46:01,760 --> 01:46:04,439
Speaker 1: I promise you I'm going to put together a very

1848
01:46:04,560 --> 01:46:09,439
Speaker 1: thorough World War One holiday reading list. Perhaps it'll be

1849
01:46:09,439 --> 01:46:13,240
Speaker 1: stocking stuffers for your family to get you if you

1850
01:46:13,240 --> 01:46:15,680
Speaker 1: want that. And there's also I'm going to point I'm

1851
01:46:15,680 --> 01:46:18,240
Speaker 1: actually going to find a couple of you know, one

1852
01:46:18,240 --> 01:46:23,200
Speaker 1: of my favorite I binged and I can't remember the

1853
01:46:23,240 --> 01:46:25,960
Speaker 1: name of it now, but it was like a fifty

1854
01:46:26,160 --> 01:46:29,639
Speaker 1: part podcast series on the fall of the Roman Empire.

1855
01:46:29,800 --> 01:46:31,519
Speaker 1: It was about five years ago and it was sort

1856
01:46:31,520 --> 01:46:40,320
Speaker 1: of and there's some terrific podcast historians out there, and

1857
01:46:40,640 --> 01:46:42,200
Speaker 1: I'm going to do a little research see if there's

1858
01:46:42,200 --> 01:46:44,839
Speaker 1: any good ones on World War One. I've not fully

1859
01:46:45,240 --> 01:46:47,439
Speaker 1: dove in on that topic in the pod in the

1860
01:46:47,439 --> 01:46:49,960
Speaker 1: audio space, but I will also try to do that

1861
01:46:50,040 --> 01:46:53,240
Speaker 1: as well. All right, Next question comes from Lynn Oh,

1862
01:46:53,960 --> 01:46:56,479
Speaker 1: a longtime fan from Boise. I appreciate your recommendations on

1863
01:46:56,560 --> 01:46:58,920
Speaker 1: changing the US Constitution. Bringing in experts for a deep

1864
01:46:58,920 --> 01:47:01,320
Speaker 1: dive would make a great segment. In Idaho, voters have

1865
01:47:01,320 --> 01:47:03,920
Speaker 1: a direct say in constitutional amendments, unlike at the federal level.

1866
01:47:04,080 --> 01:47:06,559
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on making voter approval for amendments

1867
01:47:06,560 --> 01:47:09,360
Speaker 1: to the next amendment itself? Huh? I know the textualists

1868
01:47:09,360 --> 01:47:11,920
Speaker 1: would bulk, but we need more citizen engagement and this

1869
01:47:12,000 --> 01:47:15,160
Speaker 1: could reinforce the idea that the Constitution is a living document.

1870
01:47:15,400 --> 01:47:18,080
Speaker 1: Linn Ogo, Idaho Statesman. What I love about that The

1871
01:47:18,080 --> 01:47:22,839
Speaker 1: Idaho Statesman is sort of the has been the paper

1872
01:47:22,880 --> 01:47:27,080
Speaker 1: of record when it comes to Idaho news for most

1873
01:47:27,120 --> 01:47:30,519
Speaker 1: of my lifetime. So I'm nice to see that there.

1874
01:47:31,400 --> 01:47:36,120
Speaker 1: It's interesting, whether you know, a lot of countries do

1875
01:47:36,720 --> 01:47:39,840
Speaker 1: national elections on constitutional amendments. Right, Ireland did one on

1876
01:47:40,360 --> 01:47:46,439
Speaker 1: reproductive rights that got certainly generated a lot of international news.

1877
01:47:47,600 --> 01:47:50,720
Speaker 1: We're a republic, not a direct democracy. My argument against it,

1878
01:47:50,720 --> 01:47:53,360
Speaker 1: it would be that we are not a democracy or

1879
01:47:53,400 --> 01:47:57,120
Speaker 1: a republic, and in a republic it is you. In fact,

1880
01:47:57,240 --> 01:48:02,760
Speaker 1: I'm one of those, I'm I could I think that

1881
01:48:04,560 --> 01:48:07,920
Speaker 1: because we're a republic, we shouldn't have state based referendum.

1882
01:48:08,000 --> 01:48:12,360
Speaker 1: But that's that ship is sale that we are a republic,

1883
01:48:12,479 --> 01:48:16,480
Speaker 1: meaning a representative democracy more so than a direct democracy.

1884
01:48:17,800 --> 01:48:21,280
Speaker 1: But I am all for Look, I think I think

1885
01:48:21,320 --> 01:48:23,519
Speaker 1: the case for a republic when you had a limited

1886
01:48:23,560 --> 01:48:26,400
Speaker 1: amount of information that was you were even able to

1887
01:48:26,439 --> 01:48:31,640
Speaker 1: share back in the day, you know, just logistically and geographically,

1888
01:48:31,800 --> 01:48:33,400
Speaker 1: you could say it made a lot of sense. Today

1889
01:48:33,400 --> 01:48:37,080
Speaker 1: it doesn't. Right Today, we all have equal access to information,

1890
01:48:37,240 --> 01:48:40,800
Speaker 1: we all have an equal opportunity to be informed. You know,

1891
01:48:40,840 --> 01:48:43,240
Speaker 1: it's not as if there's there's these barriers. You know,

1892
01:48:43,520 --> 01:48:46,160
Speaker 1: there's we have a public education system that I wish

1893
01:48:46,200 --> 01:48:48,400
Speaker 1: were better, but it's certainly pretty good, good enough to

1894
01:48:48,439 --> 01:48:50,400
Speaker 1: sort of inform us enough on how to be a citizen.

1895
01:48:52,400 --> 01:48:54,840
Speaker 1: And I think you would need a constitutional amendment. And

1896
01:48:54,880 --> 01:48:57,519
Speaker 1: I think if you pass constitutional amendment that says all

1897
01:48:57,720 --> 01:49:02,800
Speaker 1: future constitutional amendments need you know, need to be passed

1898
01:49:02,840 --> 01:49:05,759
Speaker 1: by the populace, you know, then hey, it's an amendment

1899
01:49:05,800 --> 01:49:08,640
Speaker 1: in the Constitution. I think where you would where you

1900
01:49:08,640 --> 01:49:12,559
Speaker 1: would have a real debate is whether and I can

1901
01:49:12,560 --> 01:49:16,480
Speaker 1: tell you this right now, I think small c conservatives

1902
01:49:17,600 --> 01:49:20,439
Speaker 1: on this would argue for a threshold of, say sixty percent.

1903
01:49:20,920 --> 01:49:23,639
Speaker 1: And you could make an argument that given that there

1904
01:49:23,800 --> 01:49:26,960
Speaker 1: is you know, either two thirds, three fourths. You know,

1905
01:49:27,160 --> 01:49:29,920
Speaker 1: there's certainly these bigger requirements in order to get a

1906
01:49:29,960 --> 01:49:34,559
Speaker 1: constitutional an amendment, an amendment added to the constitution. You know,

1907
01:49:35,000 --> 01:49:38,160
Speaker 1: what number do you use to pass the constule? Is

1908
01:49:38,200 --> 01:49:41,240
Speaker 1: it sixty percent? Is it sixty six percent? Two thirds?

1909
01:49:41,600 --> 01:49:43,200
Speaker 1: Do you go all the way up to seventy five percent?

1910
01:49:43,200 --> 01:49:45,799
Speaker 1: So I do think that would be the among probably

1911
01:49:45,840 --> 01:49:51,760
Speaker 1: the biggest debate about what should that number be. But

1912
01:49:51,920 --> 01:49:58,040
Speaker 1: in general, I mean, I think that anything we can

1913
01:49:58,120 --> 01:50:03,240
Speaker 1: do to bring more democracy closer to the people, right

1914
01:50:03,360 --> 01:50:04,960
Speaker 1: that says, why I believe we've got to double the

1915
01:50:04,960 --> 01:50:09,000
Speaker 1: size of the House of Representatives. You know, I think

1916
01:50:09,120 --> 01:50:13,920
Speaker 1: is an improvement in where we are, and so, you know,

1917
01:50:14,040 --> 01:50:20,360
Speaker 1: I could be talked into it, but you know, I

1918
01:50:20,400 --> 01:50:22,920
Speaker 1: don't know. I've thought about imagine this. Somebody said, you

1919
01:50:22,960 --> 01:50:25,880
Speaker 1: know what if we had retention elections for our Supreme

1920
01:50:25,920 --> 01:50:30,080
Speaker 1: Court justices instead of instead of you know, basically they

1921
01:50:30,080 --> 01:50:31,960
Speaker 1: were there, they were there for life, but they'd have

1922
01:50:32,000 --> 01:50:34,200
Speaker 1: to go through a retention election. And I was just thinking,

1923
01:50:34,200 --> 01:50:38,479
Speaker 1: can you imagine a national retention election and the money

1924
01:50:38,520 --> 01:50:41,320
Speaker 1: behind it for sake Clarence Thomas right, and the amount

1925
01:50:41,320 --> 01:50:43,240
Speaker 1: of what the ads would look like. I don't know,

1926
01:50:43,600 --> 01:50:45,880
Speaker 1: like that that could be, that could be something that

1927
01:50:46,320 --> 01:50:51,240
Speaker 1: we would we might regret, but look, like I said,

1928
01:50:51,280 --> 01:50:55,240
Speaker 1: I'm for whatever it would take to get more people

1929
01:50:55,280 --> 01:50:57,880
Speaker 1: engaged in our process. I think we desperately need a

1930
01:50:57,920 --> 01:51:00,800
Speaker 1: constitutional convention. We need to update the rules of the

1931
01:51:00,840 --> 01:51:03,439
Speaker 1: democracy to fit the twenty first century. And I think

1932
01:51:03,479 --> 01:51:06,400
Speaker 1: it's pretty clear that we're not there. And I think

1933
01:51:06,520 --> 01:51:10,640
Speaker 1: ultimately the frustration that's out there with the populace is

1934
01:51:10,720 --> 01:51:15,000
Speaker 1: because politicians are further away from their electorates than they've

1935
01:51:15,040 --> 01:51:19,120
Speaker 1: ever been before. All of their money comes from big

1936
01:51:19,200 --> 01:51:22,519
Speaker 1: rich donors. It doesn't come from grassroots or the people.

1937
01:51:24,080 --> 01:51:28,160
Speaker 1: You have these giant congressional districts that population have the

1938
01:51:28,200 --> 01:51:31,240
Speaker 1: population size of a major city, which means all you

1939
01:51:31,320 --> 01:51:34,360
Speaker 1: need is a small faction of said major city to

1940
01:51:34,520 --> 01:51:37,439
Speaker 1: then represent the entire congressional district, which is no longer

1941
01:51:37,439 --> 01:51:40,240
Speaker 1: a community of interest. So I do think the biggest

1942
01:51:40,240 --> 01:51:43,120
Speaker 1: problem we have generically in politics today is that people

1943
01:51:43,120 --> 01:51:45,599
Speaker 1: are too far away from the politicians, and we've got

1944
01:51:45,600 --> 01:51:47,280
Speaker 1: to figure out how to close that gap. It's a

1945
01:51:47,280 --> 01:51:50,640
Speaker 1: problem with the media, right. We gutted local media, and

1946
01:51:50,720 --> 01:51:53,040
Speaker 1: so now I would say national media is too far

1947
01:51:53,080 --> 01:51:55,400
Speaker 1: away from the people we cover. Right, there's too many

1948
01:51:55,439 --> 01:51:58,400
Speaker 1: reporters in Washington and not enough everywhere else, says the

1949
01:51:58,439 --> 01:52:02,960
Speaker 1: guy doing his pod cast from the suburbs of Washington, DC. Anyway,

1950
01:52:03,080 --> 01:52:06,040
Speaker 1: I'm a well aware of irony. Next question comes from

1951
01:52:06,040 --> 01:52:09,479
Speaker 1: Reggie in Austin, Texas. He says, Chuck gys the following

1952
01:52:09,479 --> 01:52:12,200
Speaker 1: with the subject line about coming back, as in back

1953
01:52:12,200 --> 01:52:13,880
Speaker 1: to a time when the parties actually work to get

1954
01:52:13,880 --> 01:52:16,160
Speaker 1: things done in addition to reform. When it comes to

1955
01:52:16,200 --> 01:52:17,960
Speaker 1: how the districts are drawn, would there be any way

1956
01:52:17,960 --> 01:52:19,800
Speaker 1: to reform the primary system which makes it more and

1957
01:52:19,880 --> 01:52:22,680
Speaker 1: more difficult for center left and center right candidates to win.

1958
01:52:22,720 --> 01:52:25,080
Speaker 1: I view most of our primaries now like the runoff

1959
01:52:25,080 --> 01:52:27,240
Speaker 1: in the presidential race in Chile where you have a

1960
01:52:27,240 --> 01:52:30,880
Speaker 1: far right candidate opposed by a communist. Yes, and can

1961
01:52:30,920 --> 01:52:33,599
Speaker 1: you imagine? Like, what do you do? Right? I'm enjoying

1962
01:52:34,400 --> 01:52:36,439
Speaker 1: the new podcast, thank you, and I'm also now following

1963
01:52:36,479 --> 01:52:40,160
Speaker 1: the newsgirls I, Mabel, and Ren are happy to hear that.

1964
01:52:40,360 --> 01:52:43,200
Speaker 1: I hope you, Reggie, I'm glad you have made that

1965
01:52:43,240 --> 01:52:47,080
Speaker 1: fine choice. Look, I think we I am going to

1966
01:52:47,120 --> 01:52:50,200
Speaker 1: reiterate something I've said before. I think partisan primaries that

1967
01:52:50,240 --> 01:52:53,599
Speaker 1: are funded by the tax payers are unconstitutional. I think

1968
01:52:53,680 --> 01:52:56,040
Speaker 1: the idea that I have to become a member of

1969
01:52:56,080 --> 01:52:59,560
Speaker 1: a private organization in order to participate in a primary

1970
01:52:59,560 --> 01:53:04,200
Speaker 1: that is funded with my taxpayer dollars is a poll tax.

1971
01:53:04,960 --> 01:53:11,760
Speaker 1: And I believe we've decided that that's that that's unconstitutional.

1972
01:53:12,080 --> 01:53:15,280
Speaker 1: You can make an equal protection argument on that. I

1973
01:53:15,320 --> 01:53:18,480
Speaker 1: think that if you're not registered as a Democrat or Republican,

1974
01:53:20,080 --> 01:53:24,160
Speaker 1: you are sometimes banned from certain being able to vote

1975
01:53:24,160 --> 01:53:27,479
Speaker 1: in certain primaries some states. Some state parties do have

1976
01:53:27,680 --> 01:53:32,720
Speaker 1: allowed independence to vote, and some don't. I think we

1977
01:53:32,800 --> 01:53:34,240
Speaker 1: got to go to all all. I think we had

1978
01:53:34,240 --> 01:53:36,240
Speaker 1: to get rid of partisan primaries. I'm fine if you

1979
01:53:36,280 --> 01:53:41,439
Speaker 1: want to put if you want to put a partisan

1980
01:53:41,520 --> 01:53:44,920
Speaker 1: label by your name on an all you know, basically

1981
01:53:44,960 --> 01:53:47,920
Speaker 1: an all voter primary. But I think I think it's

1982
01:53:47,960 --> 01:53:51,479
Speaker 1: pretty clear, especially now with so many in gen Z

1983
01:53:51,800 --> 01:53:54,000
Speaker 1: so disillusioned by either of the two major parties that

1984
01:53:54,040 --> 01:53:58,120
Speaker 1: are registering as independence. I mean a plurality of voters

1985
01:53:58,160 --> 01:54:01,680
Speaker 1: in America prefer to be registered there's no party or independent,

1986
01:54:01,800 --> 01:54:03,800
Speaker 1: rather than being registered with either of the donkeys or

1987
01:54:03,840 --> 01:54:07,960
Speaker 1: the elephants. So I think it's I think it's well

1988
01:54:08,000 --> 01:54:10,559
Speaker 1: past time and this and the and you know, the

1989
01:54:10,600 --> 01:54:14,120
Speaker 1: reason why the two major parties fight this is because

1990
01:54:14,479 --> 01:54:18,320
Speaker 1: the two major parties are controlled by base activists, base

1991
01:54:18,439 --> 01:54:23,760
Speaker 1: progressives and base conservatives and they only have a chance

1992
01:54:23,800 --> 01:54:27,320
Speaker 1: at getting power through a rigged primary process. Yes, I

1993
01:54:27,400 --> 01:54:31,080
Speaker 1: called it rigged. I think the keeping other voters out,

1994
01:54:31,200 --> 01:54:35,080
Speaker 1: you know, you know, siloing your selection there. I think

1995
01:54:35,080 --> 01:54:37,760
Speaker 1: a political party is welcome to endorse a candidate, go

1996
01:54:37,880 --> 01:54:40,200
Speaker 1: for it, and then let the voter decide if that

1997
01:54:40,280 --> 01:54:44,000
Speaker 1: endorsement means anything to them, but to then shut out

1998
01:54:44,040 --> 01:54:46,840
Speaker 1: people from having any sort of choice on who makes

1999
01:54:46,880 --> 01:54:49,720
Speaker 1: the general election ballot, especially when you're using taxpayer dollars.

2000
01:54:50,240 --> 01:54:53,240
Speaker 1: So I think there needs to be smarter lawyers attacking

2001
01:54:53,240 --> 01:54:56,200
Speaker 1: this situation. All the good election lawyers work for the

2002
01:54:56,200 --> 01:54:58,520
Speaker 1: two parties. We need some election lawyers that work for

2003
01:54:58,560 --> 01:55:01,440
Speaker 1: the rest of us. But I think I think, in

2004
01:55:02,480 --> 01:55:04,840
Speaker 1: you know, full full disclosure, you know, with some of

2005
01:55:04,880 --> 01:55:07,840
Speaker 1: these organizations that are working to try to open up primaries,

2006
01:55:09,520 --> 01:55:12,920
Speaker 1: I've gotten to know them and I've been working them

2007
01:55:13,000 --> 01:55:15,520
Speaker 1: hard on this issue. I think it. I think this

2008
01:55:15,640 --> 01:55:17,920
Speaker 1: is I think this is one of the things that

2009
01:55:18,040 --> 01:55:22,680
Speaker 1: is eating away at the democracy. I think polarization is

2010
01:55:22,720 --> 01:55:25,120
Speaker 1: a virus. And I think if we want to deal

2011
01:55:25,160 --> 01:55:28,000
Speaker 1: with polars if we want better elected officials, we need

2012
01:55:28,320 --> 01:55:31,840
Speaker 1: we need a better system and a better set of incentives.

2013
01:55:31,920 --> 01:55:35,120
Speaker 1: And if the if if an elected official knows every

2014
01:55:35,200 --> 01:55:36,560
Speaker 1: voter is going to be on the ballot for a

2015
01:55:36,600 --> 01:55:39,040
Speaker 1: primary election, I promise you they're going to make different

2016
01:55:39,080 --> 01:55:44,080
Speaker 1: decisions when they vote on certain pieces of legislation. That's

2017
01:55:44,120 --> 01:55:47,120
Speaker 1: the I think that's the the the single biggest thing

2018
01:55:47,160 --> 01:55:49,440
Speaker 1: we could do over the next is that and then

2019
01:55:49,480 --> 01:55:51,920
Speaker 1: the second is the barrier to the barrier to get

2020
01:55:51,920 --> 01:55:54,360
Speaker 1: on the ballot as an independent or as a as

2021
01:55:54,400 --> 01:55:59,560
Speaker 1: a third party. Again, many most states rig it so

2022
01:55:59,600 --> 01:56:03,080
Speaker 1: that the Democrats are the Republicans have easier access to

2023
01:56:03,120 --> 01:56:06,160
Speaker 1: the ballot than if you're an independent or a member

2024
01:56:06,160 --> 01:56:10,960
Speaker 1: of another party. Again, I believe there's an equal protection

2025
01:56:11,080 --> 01:56:14,560
Speaker 1: argument there, and I believe that rigging a prime access

2026
01:56:14,640 --> 01:56:18,000
Speaker 1: to the ballot through the prism of the two major

2027
01:56:18,040 --> 01:56:25,600
Speaker 1: parties is unconstitutional and yes, undemocratic. All right, last question

2028
01:56:25,640 --> 01:56:28,600
Speaker 1: before I get my college football rants going here. Long

2029
01:56:28,600 --> 01:56:34,120
Speaker 1: time fantasy hotline on call days it's not on call. Well,

2030
01:56:34,160 --> 01:56:35,760
Speaker 1: I guess our blog was called on call. I think

2031
01:56:35,800 --> 01:56:37,480
Speaker 1: we did that. We were always on call. We had

2032
01:56:37,560 --> 01:56:39,920
Speaker 1: last call, and they'd still have last call and wake

2033
01:56:40,000 --> 01:56:44,720
Speaker 1: up call. I still have a few episodes saved on iTunes. Oh,

2034
01:56:45,000 --> 01:56:47,520
Speaker 1: look at that. I do vaguely remember when we were

2035
01:56:47,520 --> 01:56:49,800
Speaker 1: doing those things. Watching your Decision to Ask stream tonight

2036
01:56:49,800 --> 01:56:51,600
Speaker 1: and wanted to share quick thought. I've heard you mentioned

2037
01:56:51,600 --> 01:56:54,320
Speaker 1: how dem favorability is low despite great results. As a

2038
01:56:54,360 --> 01:56:56,520
Speaker 1: Democratic county official, i'd probably tell a polster I feel

2039
01:56:56,560 --> 01:56:59,320
Speaker 1: unfavorably too. I think, by the way, You're not alone.

2040
01:56:59,400 --> 01:57:03,080
Speaker 1: I think of the reason Chuck Schumer's numbers suck, it's

2041
01:57:03,080 --> 01:57:05,360
Speaker 1: not just Republicans that don't like them, it's fellow Democrats

2042
01:57:05,360 --> 01:57:07,720
Speaker 1: that don't like them. Anyway. The party failed to keep

2043
01:57:07,720 --> 01:57:10,360
Speaker 1: Trump out. Yep. But like many hardcore Dems, I'm still

2044
01:57:10,360 --> 01:57:12,520
Speaker 1: walking through fire to vote next November. There's a real

2045
01:57:12,560 --> 01:57:16,400
Speaker 1: internal grievance this time, not just among independents. Pete, Pete,

2046
01:57:16,400 --> 01:57:18,520
Speaker 1: I think you're right, and I know this. I mean,

2047
01:57:18,520 --> 01:57:20,520
Speaker 1: it was the same thing we saw, you know, in

2048
01:57:20,560 --> 01:57:23,720
Speaker 1: the run up to when the Republicans went ahead and

2049
01:57:23,760 --> 01:57:27,680
Speaker 1: got behind Trump. If you recall, you would start to

2050
01:57:27,720 --> 01:57:32,320
Speaker 1: see growing disapproval of Republican officials by Republicans. And there

2051
01:57:32,360 --> 01:57:34,520
Speaker 1: was a time where Democrats are reading that as if oh,

2052
01:57:34,760 --> 01:57:37,040
Speaker 1: Republicans are sour on their own side, that they wouldn't

2053
01:57:37,080 --> 01:57:40,200
Speaker 1: support Republican That isn't the case. And I think you

2054
01:57:40,280 --> 01:57:45,680
Speaker 1: make an important point. I want to single out of

2055
01:57:45,720 --> 01:57:49,000
Speaker 1: line you said, because this, to me is this single

2056
01:57:50,480 --> 01:57:54,400
Speaker 1: most I think it's the biggest reason why a chunk

2057
01:57:54,440 --> 01:57:57,520
Speaker 1: of voters are so sour in the Democratic Party. The

2058
01:57:57,560 --> 01:58:02,400
Speaker 1: party failed to keep Trump out. Joe Biden had one job.

2059
01:58:03,640 --> 01:58:07,560
Speaker 1: He was elected to do one thing, turned the page

2060
01:58:07,560 --> 01:58:10,880
Speaker 1: on Donald Trump, and he didn't do it. Now you

2061
01:58:10,920 --> 01:58:14,040
Speaker 1: can say he tried and failed. You can say he

2062
01:58:14,400 --> 01:58:16,520
Speaker 1: pursued it the wrong way. You could say he was

2063
01:58:16,560 --> 01:58:18,560
Speaker 1: the wrong man for the job. We could go through

2064
01:58:18,760 --> 01:58:22,760
Speaker 1: a variety of reasons. But I do believe that the

2065
01:58:22,800 --> 01:58:27,040
Speaker 1: anger at Joe Biden is all about he and he

2066
01:58:27,160 --> 01:58:30,560
Speaker 1: alone is why Donald Trump is back. And I think

2067
01:58:30,600 --> 01:58:32,520
Speaker 1: people and I think there are going to be Democrats

2068
01:58:32,520 --> 01:58:37,960
Speaker 1: that will will hold Biden to account on the return

2069
01:58:38,000 --> 01:58:41,840
Speaker 1: of Donald Trump for the rest of their lives. It

2070
01:58:41,920 --> 01:58:44,120
Speaker 1: is why Joe Biden can't raise money for his library.

2071
01:58:44,360 --> 01:58:47,000
Speaker 1: It is why Joe Biden got invited to exactly one

2072
01:58:47,120 --> 01:58:48,960
Speaker 1: campaign rally over the last three months, and it was

2073
01:58:48,960 --> 01:58:56,600
Speaker 1: for the Nebraska State Party Democrats, rank and file, activist Democrats,

2074
01:58:56,720 --> 01:59:00,200
Speaker 1: independents that didn't like Trump. Right, the anger is not

2075
01:59:00,240 --> 01:59:03,120
Speaker 1: a Trump anymore. Yes, that anger is still there. And

2076
01:59:03,280 --> 01:59:06,680
Speaker 1: like you, I we've seen this, right, which is I

2077
01:59:06,720 --> 01:59:10,480
Speaker 1: don't like the Democratic Party they gave They were so

2078
01:59:10,680 --> 01:59:12,800
Speaker 1: bad at their job. They brought back the return of

2079
01:59:12,880 --> 01:59:15,280
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. But it doesn't mean you're not going to

2080
01:59:15,720 --> 01:59:18,200
Speaker 1: not vote for an opposition to Donald Trump. Right, So

2081
01:59:18,240 --> 01:59:21,400
Speaker 1: I get where you're going here. But I do think

2082
01:59:22,080 --> 01:59:27,640
Speaker 1: this the single biggest sort of elephant in the room

2083
01:59:27,840 --> 01:59:31,480
Speaker 1: that Democrats haven't had a haven't had this full conversation.

2084
01:59:31,560 --> 01:59:35,200
Speaker 1: But what the real anger about? Buyden, Like, you had

2085
01:59:35,240 --> 01:59:38,040
Speaker 1: one job and you failed to do that job, and

2086
01:59:38,040 --> 01:59:41,240
Speaker 1: you instead sort of let people whispering you, and you

2087
01:59:41,360 --> 01:59:46,520
Speaker 1: let your presidency get hijacked by the left in ways

2088
01:59:46,560 --> 01:59:50,600
Speaker 1: that you thought was a good idea, and all you

2089
01:59:50,680 --> 01:59:56,840
Speaker 1: did was create a situation where Donald Trump came back again.

2090
01:59:57,560 --> 01:59:59,960
Speaker 1: Some of it may not have been in his contry,

2091
02:00:00,240 --> 02:00:03,720
Speaker 1: but I think for many voters that you know, Joe

2092
02:00:03,760 --> 02:00:07,520
Speaker 1: Biden was very few Democrats had Joe Biden as their

2093
02:00:07,560 --> 02:00:11,400
Speaker 1: first choice. He was pretty much everybody's, you know, nobody's

2094
02:00:11,480 --> 02:00:15,280
Speaker 1: last choice, and he was everybody's second or third choice.

2095
02:00:15,480 --> 02:00:17,160
Speaker 1: But the assumption was he was going to be a

2096
02:00:17,160 --> 02:00:19,680
Speaker 1: calming presence and he was going to be able to

2097
02:00:19,680 --> 02:00:22,440
Speaker 1: turn the page. I do think, and I'm going to

2098
02:00:22,440 --> 02:00:25,000
Speaker 1: point you back to my substack this week. I do

2099
02:00:25,080 --> 02:00:30,640
Speaker 1: think why the single most important attribute that I think

2100
02:00:30,640 --> 02:00:33,480
Speaker 1: Democratic voter are going to be looking for in the

2101
02:00:33,520 --> 02:00:40,120
Speaker 1: next Democratic presidential nominee is somebody who's ready to act,

2102
02:00:40,400 --> 02:00:45,400
Speaker 1: somebody who isn't sloganeering, but is doing right. I think

2103
02:00:45,560 --> 02:00:48,920
Speaker 1: one of the reasons why Gavin Newsom has frankly had

2104
02:00:48,960 --> 02:00:52,520
Speaker 1: shocked me. But he has sort of rocketed to already

2105
02:00:52,560 --> 02:00:55,360
Speaker 1: the top of any presidential primary poll you ask, whether

2106
02:00:55,400 --> 02:00:58,280
Speaker 1: it's a poll of Democrats in New Hampshire, a national

2107
02:00:58,320 --> 02:01:01,320
Speaker 1: primary poll, or any You pick a state, and he

2108
02:01:01,440 --> 02:01:04,880
Speaker 1: is somewhere in the top three, and the other two

2109
02:01:05,000 --> 02:01:08,360
Speaker 1: usually are AOC Bernie, you know Bernie, actually Lexel. You'll

2110
02:01:08,360 --> 02:01:10,800
Speaker 1: see AOC there. She's already been a national figure for

2111
02:01:10,840 --> 02:01:13,320
Speaker 1: some time. And then you might see Pete pudagdch who's

2112
02:01:13,360 --> 02:01:16,640
Speaker 1: run for president before. It's more impressive to me that

2113
02:01:16,760 --> 02:01:20,040
Speaker 1: Gavin Newsom, who's never run before and really did not

2114
02:01:20,240 --> 02:01:24,080
Speaker 1: have a national identity before the last six months. I

2115
02:01:24,120 --> 02:01:26,560
Speaker 1: know those of us in politics think of Gavin Newsom

2116
02:01:26,560 --> 02:01:28,080
Speaker 1: as a guy that's been around a while, but he's

2117
02:01:28,120 --> 02:01:31,120
Speaker 1: really been a you know, a star in California, not

2118
02:01:31,160 --> 02:01:36,760
Speaker 1: necessarily a national figure. He's a national figure now, and

2119
02:01:37,400 --> 02:01:40,480
Speaker 1: I think Democrats that are picking him at the moment

2120
02:01:40,520 --> 02:01:43,040
Speaker 1: see him as somebody, Hey, he went and did something

2121
02:01:43,400 --> 02:01:45,440
Speaker 1: he didn't just you know, this is not going to

2122
02:01:45,440 --> 02:01:48,040
Speaker 1: be a hope and change Democratic primary. This is going

2123
02:01:48,080 --> 02:01:50,400
Speaker 1: to be your goddamn right, I'm going to do this primary.

2124
02:01:51,640 --> 02:01:53,880
Speaker 1: And so I do think that, and I do think

2125
02:01:54,000 --> 02:01:58,160
Speaker 1: the failure of Biden's stylistic and the temperament of Biden,

2126
02:01:58,520 --> 02:02:02,640
Speaker 1: and I wonder is that, you know, I look at

2127
02:02:02,640 --> 02:02:05,400
Speaker 1: an amibus share in a Wes Moore as two candidates

2128
02:02:05,400 --> 02:02:07,760
Speaker 1: that want to be sort of turn the temperature down,

2129
02:02:07,840 --> 02:02:10,600
Speaker 1: turn the page candidates, and it could be by twenty seven,

2130
02:02:10,720 --> 02:02:14,480
Speaker 1: that is, that is where the primary electorate's attitude is.

2131
02:02:14,680 --> 02:02:16,920
Speaker 1: Especially if Democrats win both the House and Senate. I

2132
02:02:16,960 --> 02:02:19,520
Speaker 1: think then maybe though the heat will have backed off

2133
02:02:19,520 --> 02:02:24,560
Speaker 1: a little bit. But if the same frustration that Democrats

2134
02:02:24,600 --> 02:02:27,760
Speaker 1: are expressing, like you Pete right now is there in

2135
02:02:27,840 --> 02:02:31,080
Speaker 1: twenty seven, then I don't know if the moderate and

2136
02:02:31,160 --> 02:02:36,120
Speaker 1: temperament governor idea is going to be as appealing, even

2137
02:02:36,120 --> 02:02:39,640
Speaker 1: if you know, even if it's appealing to somebody like myself,

2138
02:02:39,640 --> 02:02:41,520
Speaker 1: who I considered myself to be more of a swing

2139
02:02:41,600 --> 02:02:45,640
Speaker 1: voter because I'm not comfortable ideologically in either party, that

2140
02:02:45,720 --> 02:02:48,400
Speaker 1: might not be what Democrats want, and they may consider

2141
02:02:48,440 --> 02:02:52,400
Speaker 1: electability not necessarily somebody with the moderate temperament, but somebody

2142
02:02:52,400 --> 02:02:55,520
Speaker 1: with an action temperament with a take the bull by

2143
02:02:55,520 --> 02:02:59,680
Speaker 1: the horns temperament, because, as I mentioned to you earlier,

2144
02:02:59,680 --> 02:03:04,000
Speaker 1: one of the interesting things in my recent trip to

2145
02:03:04,040 --> 02:03:08,160
Speaker 1: austin my interview with Wes Moore and the conversation I

2146
02:03:08,200 --> 02:03:11,080
Speaker 1: observed with Tim Walls was that they both came down

2147
02:03:11,480 --> 02:03:13,880
Speaker 1: when they were asked to, you know, the question the

2148
02:03:13,920 --> 02:03:15,560
Speaker 1: form of the question of what does Trump do? Well,

2149
02:03:16,160 --> 02:03:19,320
Speaker 1: you know, he's always doing something right, and Democrats are

2150
02:03:19,320 --> 02:03:22,000
Speaker 1: always asking a committee to look at an idea, and

2151
02:03:22,040 --> 02:03:23,640
Speaker 1: then they kick the tires and then they see if

2152
02:03:23,640 --> 02:03:25,560
Speaker 1: an interest group is going to support them, and then

2153
02:03:25,560 --> 02:03:27,600
Speaker 1: maybe they'll implement the idea if they can find the

2154
02:03:27,640 --> 02:03:32,120
Speaker 1: votes after that, you get my point. So, I mean,

2155
02:03:32,120 --> 02:03:34,000
Speaker 1: we'll see where the attitude of the party is in

2156
02:03:34,040 --> 02:03:35,520
Speaker 1: twenty seven. I think a lot of it will have

2157
02:03:35,560 --> 02:03:38,400
Speaker 1: to do with how successful or not that the party

2158
02:03:38,440 --> 02:03:43,400
Speaker 1: is in twenty six. But I Pete, I think you've

2159
02:03:43,400 --> 02:03:47,320
Speaker 1: put your I think you've you've really identified the feeling

2160
02:03:47,400 --> 02:03:51,600
Speaker 1: that you have Democratic voters who are going to crawl

2161
02:03:51,680 --> 02:03:54,840
Speaker 1: them broken glass to vote, who have a negative view

2162
02:03:55,000 --> 02:04:06,320
Speaker 1: of the current leadership of the Democratic Party. All right,

2163
02:04:06,760 --> 02:04:10,080
Speaker 1: it's time for a little bit on college football. Not

2164
02:04:10,240 --> 02:04:13,920
Speaker 1: the greatest weekend of games. This is this weird weekend

2165
02:04:13,920 --> 02:04:16,600
Speaker 1: where every SEC team plays a group of five or

2166
02:04:16,640 --> 02:04:21,360
Speaker 1: worse team other than Oklahoma Missouri and for those of

2167
02:04:21,440 --> 02:04:26,760
Speaker 1: us in the two loss column of the college football playoff,

2168
02:04:28,280 --> 02:04:30,800
Speaker 1: there's a lot of Missouri fans in South Bend, and

2169
02:04:30,880 --> 02:04:33,760
Speaker 1: a lot of Missouri fans in Tuscaloosa, and a lot

2170
02:04:33,800 --> 02:04:37,160
Speaker 1: of Missouri fans in Miami, and potentially a lot of

2171
02:04:37,160 --> 02:04:42,080
Speaker 1: Missouri fans in Oregon and Southern California. That's the other

2172
02:04:42,160 --> 02:04:45,640
Speaker 1: big game of the weekend, which is Oregon in Southern

2173
02:04:45,680 --> 02:04:49,800
Speaker 1: cal that they could have some playoff implications. But let

2174
02:04:49,800 --> 02:04:53,680
Speaker 1: me just react a bit to the college football rankings.

2175
02:04:54,640 --> 02:04:56,960
Speaker 1: Believe it or not, I'm feeling I don't want to

2176
02:04:57,000 --> 02:05:00,360
Speaker 1: say bullish about Miami's chances, but I actually think your

2177
02:05:00,400 --> 02:05:05,360
Speaker 1: start that we're that that is, it's now in Miami's control.

2178
02:05:06,200 --> 02:05:09,040
Speaker 1: They can't they obviously, they can't lose another game. They

2179
02:05:09,080 --> 02:05:11,280
Speaker 1: got two more games on the road, one against Virginia

2180
02:05:11,320 --> 02:05:14,840
Speaker 1: Tech this weekend in Blacksburg on the week that they

2181
02:05:14,920 --> 02:05:18,200
Speaker 1: hire their new coach. Does that mean players want to

2182
02:05:18,200 --> 02:05:20,480
Speaker 1: play hard because they know the new coach is watching.

2183
02:05:20,560 --> 02:05:22,160
Speaker 1: Because I'm sure he's going to be at the game

2184
02:05:22,240 --> 02:05:23,800
Speaker 1: and that there's going to be Does they want to

2185
02:05:23,800 --> 02:05:28,200
Speaker 1: start to drum up enthusiasm for for Franklin or have

2186
02:05:28,280 --> 02:05:29,640
Speaker 1: they already mailed it in? Right?

2187
02:05:31,360 --> 02:05:31,480
Speaker 2: Uh?

2188
02:05:31,920 --> 02:05:34,720
Speaker 1: Does this coaching staff know they're all going to get

2189
02:05:35,280 --> 02:05:38,120
Speaker 1: replaced and they all have to look for jobs or

2190
02:05:38,160 --> 02:05:40,040
Speaker 1: do they want to impress the new boss to see

2191
02:05:40,040 --> 02:05:42,920
Speaker 1: if they can stick around? Right? I'm I don't know

2192
02:05:42,960 --> 02:05:45,280
Speaker 1: what the psyche of the Tech folks are going to

2193
02:05:45,320 --> 02:05:49,320
Speaker 1: be and that is but it does It shouldn't matter, right,

2194
02:05:50,920 --> 02:05:53,200
Speaker 1: If Miami is as good as I think they can be,

2195
02:05:54,160 --> 02:05:58,880
Speaker 1: then this is you know, if they are Playoff worthy,

2196
02:05:59,000 --> 02:06:03,120
Speaker 1: then they they smack they smack Tech. You know, it's

2197
02:06:03,160 --> 02:06:05,560
Speaker 1: a thirty one to ten, you know, something like that,

2198
02:06:05,840 --> 02:06:08,880
Speaker 1: thirty four to you know, you know, forty two seventeen,

2199
02:06:09,400 --> 02:06:12,480
Speaker 1: but it's something thorough. Anything less than that, and this

2200
02:06:12,520 --> 02:06:14,880
Speaker 1: is going to be held against them. But I think

2201
02:06:14,920 --> 02:06:16,960
Speaker 1: if they can do that and then they whip hit

2202
02:06:17,080 --> 02:06:20,800
Speaker 1: the following week, another tough game, road game Saturday after Thanksgiving,

2203
02:06:22,800 --> 02:06:26,120
Speaker 1: you know, I think the path is there because it's

2204
02:06:26,160 --> 02:06:30,280
Speaker 1: interesting to hear the Playoff committee spin, you know, when

2205
02:06:30,320 --> 02:06:32,040
Speaker 1: they're asked the question of why do you have Notre

2206
02:06:32,120 --> 02:06:34,480
Speaker 1: Dame ranked heead of Miami when Miami? When are you?

2207
02:06:34,600 --> 02:06:36,400
Speaker 1: And they're saying, well, we're not factoring in the head

2208
02:06:36,400 --> 02:06:39,440
Speaker 1: to head because they're not being considered within the same pool,

2209
02:06:39,480 --> 02:06:42,200
Speaker 1: and they it's it's funny to me all the different

2210
02:06:42,280 --> 02:06:44,840
Speaker 1: rules that they sort of let us know about, and

2211
02:06:44,880 --> 02:06:47,600
Speaker 1: they trickle them out because they still don't They still

2212
02:06:47,600 --> 02:06:50,760
Speaker 1: have never really said what the criteria is on whether

2213
02:06:50,840 --> 02:06:54,080
Speaker 1: wins matter more than losses right right now, they've decided

2214
02:06:54,120 --> 02:06:57,200
Speaker 1: losses matter more than wins, because if if wins mattered

2215
02:06:57,200 --> 02:06:58,760
Speaker 1: more than losses, Miami would be ranked a head of

2216
02:06:58,840 --> 02:07:03,320
Speaker 1: Notre Dame. But they've decided losses matter more than wins,

2217
02:07:03,520 --> 02:07:06,040
Speaker 1: and that's why Notre Dames ahead of both Miami and Alabama.

2218
02:07:06,560 --> 02:07:09,200
Speaker 1: By the way, I wanted to welcome Paul Finbaum to

2219
02:07:09,280 --> 02:07:14,680
Speaker 1: the Miami's Getting Screwed Here committee, I noticed I have

2220
02:07:14,720 --> 02:07:17,280
Speaker 1: a feeling he's only there because Alabama got dropped below

2221
02:07:17,400 --> 02:07:22,840
Speaker 1: Notre Dame because again, Alabama's wins are terrific, but they're

2222
02:07:22,880 --> 02:07:25,600
Speaker 1: being punished for the Florida State loss and punished for

2223
02:07:25,640 --> 02:07:28,000
Speaker 1: losing at home to Oklahoma in a game that they

2224
02:07:28,000 --> 02:07:31,920
Speaker 1: should have won if you believe in these sp plus rankings, etc.

2225
02:07:33,640 --> 02:07:36,320
Speaker 1: But it's interesting if you look at the two loss teams, right,

2226
02:07:36,760 --> 02:07:45,000
Speaker 1: You've got Utah, Miami, Notre Dame, Alabama, Oklahoma, and then

2227
02:07:45,760 --> 02:07:49,000
Speaker 1: maybe Oregon if they lose to USC, and then USC

2228
02:07:49,240 --> 02:07:51,560
Speaker 1: jumps in there, and then you might have Michigan if

2229
02:07:51,560 --> 02:07:54,280
Speaker 1: they beat Ohio State. Then there suddenly in the conversation

2230
02:07:55,240 --> 02:07:59,040
Speaker 1: on this sort of where things go. But I do

2231
02:07:59,160 --> 02:08:05,000
Speaker 1: think that Miami's creeped up here. If they were ranked

2232
02:08:05,040 --> 02:08:09,840
Speaker 1: one slot higher, they would be in the same group. Right.

2233
02:08:09,840 --> 02:08:12,320
Speaker 1: They apparently decide who the top four teams are. Then

2234
02:08:12,360 --> 02:08:16,440
Speaker 1: they then five through eight are are are identified and

2235
02:08:16,480 --> 02:08:19,879
Speaker 1: compared against each other. Then nine through twelve, well, Miami's

2236
02:08:19,920 --> 02:08:23,320
Speaker 1: in the next tier of thirteen through through sixteen. If

2237
02:08:23,320 --> 02:08:26,320
Speaker 1: Miami's in the same quote like grouping of Notre Dame,

2238
02:08:26,920 --> 02:08:30,240
Speaker 1: then the head to head according to these according to

2239
02:08:30,280 --> 02:08:36,240
Speaker 1: these playoff committee experts, will start to matter more. Miami

2240
02:08:36,280 --> 02:08:39,600
Speaker 1: wins out and wins both games big and Notre Dame

2241
02:08:39,600 --> 02:08:42,360
Speaker 1: does the same. But you know, I do I'm starting

2242
02:08:42,360 --> 02:08:43,800
Speaker 1: to believe that they're going to get there, and I

2243
02:08:43,840 --> 02:08:47,160
Speaker 1: do think I'm sorry by the way the lack of

2244
02:08:48,280 --> 02:08:51,040
Speaker 1: there's a lot of people who don't watch college football.

2245
02:08:51,120 --> 02:08:53,040
Speaker 1: It turns out they watch their team, but they don't

2246
02:08:53,080 --> 02:08:56,400
Speaker 1: really pay attention to the rest. This is true of politics,

2247
02:08:56,600 --> 02:09:00,000
Speaker 1: and it happens all the time. In case you're one,

2248
02:09:00,480 --> 02:09:03,240
Speaker 1: I get all of my expert college football advice from

2249
02:09:03,280 --> 02:09:07,400
Speaker 1: gambling podcasts on college football, not from any of the

2250
02:09:07,480 --> 02:09:10,680
Speaker 1: punditry that you see on Fox or ESPN, because, frankly,

2251
02:09:10,720 --> 02:09:14,280
Speaker 1: the gamblers give you a It is a much more

2252
02:09:14,400 --> 02:09:21,320
Speaker 1: data driven analysis that you get right of offensive metrics

2253
02:09:21,360 --> 02:09:25,560
Speaker 1: defensive metrics now gamblers sometimes get, you know, I do think.

2254
02:09:26,520 --> 02:09:30,920
Speaker 1: I do think Mario Christobal's reputation for blowing games for

2255
02:09:30,960 --> 02:09:33,800
Speaker 1: his teams losing games that they shouldn't. It's true at Oregon,

2256
02:09:33,880 --> 02:09:36,800
Speaker 1: it's been true at Miami is for some reason, being

2257
02:09:36,840 --> 02:09:40,520
Speaker 1: held like it's making for whatever reason, Miami's losses are

2258
02:09:40,560 --> 02:09:44,120
Speaker 1: being held more accountable to Miami because of this supposed

2259
02:09:44,480 --> 02:09:48,880
Speaker 1: crystabal reputation. I don't think that's fair to me. It's like,

2260
02:09:50,760 --> 02:09:52,400
Speaker 1: you know, it should be blank slate, here's team A,

2261
02:09:52,480 --> 02:09:55,440
Speaker 1: here's team B, and if it were blind taste as

2262
02:09:55,480 --> 02:09:58,720
Speaker 1: team A team B, Miami's going to win that argument

2263
02:09:58,800 --> 02:10:02,040
Speaker 1: just about every time against for one simple fact, the

2264
02:10:02,080 --> 02:10:04,920
Speaker 1: head to head and again, yes, the final score was

2265
02:10:04,960 --> 02:10:07,400
Speaker 1: three points, but if you watch that game, Miami was

2266
02:10:07,440 --> 02:10:09,200
Speaker 1: in charge of that game the whole time. They basically

2267
02:10:09,240 --> 02:10:10,920
Speaker 1: had a double digit lead for most of the game.

2268
02:10:11,240 --> 02:10:14,640
Speaker 1: They were in control of that game until Mario didn't

2269
02:10:14,640 --> 02:10:17,320
Speaker 1: know how to just sort of slow the game down

2270
02:10:17,320 --> 02:10:21,040
Speaker 1: and end it. But it did give it did give

2271
02:10:21,080 --> 02:10:25,280
Speaker 1: Notre Dame the perception of coming back there at the end,

2272
02:10:25,360 --> 02:10:28,560
Speaker 1: but it really wasn't. It was a pretty thorough defeat

2273
02:10:29,720 --> 02:10:32,040
Speaker 1: by Miami over Notre Dame. Now you can make the

2274
02:10:32,120 --> 02:10:35,000
Speaker 1: argument out CJ Car's first game. Yeah, that's true. So

2275
02:10:35,360 --> 02:10:37,800
Speaker 1: it was Carson Beck's first game. It was Malachi Tony's

2276
02:10:37,840 --> 02:10:41,240
Speaker 1: first game, Ruben, You know, so there's you know, I

2277
02:10:41,280 --> 02:10:44,280
Speaker 1: think that that argument sort of wears me out. And

2278
02:10:44,320 --> 02:10:47,040
Speaker 1: now here's where I think Notre Dame might actually have

2279
02:10:47,120 --> 02:10:49,360
Speaker 1: more problems on that committee. As much as I think

2280
02:10:49,400 --> 02:10:51,880
Speaker 1: this committee is making decisions not based on what happens

2281
02:10:51,920 --> 02:10:54,920
Speaker 1: on the field, but what happens in the ratings and

2282
02:10:55,000 --> 02:10:59,640
Speaker 1: what happened and what ESPN cares about the most, I

2283
02:10:59,680 --> 02:11:02,480
Speaker 1: do think there's a lot of conference commissioners and conference

2284
02:11:02,520 --> 02:11:06,360
Speaker 1: ads who can't stand that Notre Dame continues to not

2285
02:11:06,440 --> 02:11:09,320
Speaker 1: have to be in a conference. And the fact of

2286
02:11:09,360 --> 02:11:13,400
Speaker 1: the matter is, none of these college football pundits have

2287
02:11:13,480 --> 02:11:16,440
Speaker 1: acknowledged the fact that Notre Dame's last two games where

2288
02:11:16,440 --> 02:11:19,160
Speaker 1: against teams that chose not to compete at one hundred

2289
02:11:19,200 --> 02:11:21,840
Speaker 1: percent against Notre Dame. So essentially, they got to play

2290
02:11:21,960 --> 02:11:25,560
Speaker 1: two exhibition games, one against Navy, one against PITT, against

2291
02:11:25,600 --> 02:11:28,680
Speaker 1: two teams that did not care and the coaching staff.

2292
02:11:28,960 --> 02:11:30,680
Speaker 1: I'm not saying the players didn't care, but the coaching

2293
02:11:30,680 --> 02:11:33,040
Speaker 1: staff did not coach to win the game. They held

2294
02:11:33,040 --> 02:11:35,640
Speaker 1: out players that they thought mattered more for their conferences.

2295
02:11:35,680 --> 02:11:40,960
Speaker 1: And again, it's a very logical thing to do, but

2296
02:11:41,080 --> 02:11:44,320
Speaker 1: it should it should count against Notre Dame. It doesn't

2297
02:11:44,320 --> 02:11:47,240
Speaker 1: mean they defeated. It's an impressed I'm not impressed with

2298
02:11:47,240 --> 02:11:50,160
Speaker 1: their pit victory because they didn't face the best version

2299
02:11:50,160 --> 02:11:55,440
Speaker 1: of PITT. So, now, is it Notre Dame's fault that

2300
02:11:55,480 --> 02:11:57,640
Speaker 1: teams are choosing to do that. No, but they're not

2301
02:11:57,720 --> 02:12:00,440
Speaker 1: in a conference and so they don't they don't have

2302
02:12:01,320 --> 02:12:05,640
Speaker 1: that pressure of winning or losing conference games. Conference games

2303
02:12:05,720 --> 02:12:08,400
Speaker 1: are just have more pressure because you face the same

2304
02:12:08,400 --> 02:12:11,800
Speaker 1: team all the time, and especially if you're the bigger brand,

2305
02:12:12,080 --> 02:12:15,320
Speaker 1: they're always obsessed with beating you, and it's and it's

2306
02:12:15,360 --> 02:12:19,000
Speaker 1: in conference, and there's it just matters more conference games,

2307
02:12:19,120 --> 02:12:22,360
Speaker 1: it adds pressure, they're harder, all of those things, and

2308
02:12:22,440 --> 02:12:25,760
Speaker 1: Notre Dame doesn't have any of those difficult type games.

2309
02:12:25,800 --> 02:12:30,839
Speaker 1: Because now, in some ways, the conference path, particularly ACC

2310
02:12:31,040 --> 02:12:33,960
Speaker 1: Big twelve and Group of five teams, since the committee

2311
02:12:34,040 --> 02:12:37,760
Speaker 1: is going to be incredibly biased against every conference that's

2312
02:12:37,800 --> 02:12:40,800
Speaker 1: not named the SEC and even the Big Ten. Right,

2313
02:12:41,200 --> 02:12:43,640
Speaker 1: your conference games matter so much more than your non

2314
02:12:43,640 --> 02:12:48,160
Speaker 1: conference games, and Notre Dame plays nothing but non conference games.

2315
02:12:48,480 --> 02:12:51,720
Speaker 1: So I'm just saying I think that there's a chance

2316
02:12:51,760 --> 02:12:55,200
Speaker 1: that this is one of those cases where Miami might

2317
02:12:55,280 --> 02:12:58,840
Speaker 1: get you know, I think deserves the bid over Notre Dame.

2318
02:12:59,120 --> 02:13:01,800
Speaker 1: But the reasoning they may get it is it irrit

2319
02:13:01,960 --> 02:13:04,400
Speaker 1: you know, it's about pressuring Notre Dame to join a

2320
02:13:04,440 --> 02:13:07,160
Speaker 1: conference and to have a real conference schedule and to

2321
02:13:07,200 --> 02:13:08,880
Speaker 1: go through there. And I do think if Notre Dame

2322
02:13:08,920 --> 02:13:13,680
Speaker 1: wants a simpler path to the College Football Playoff, they'd

2323
02:13:13,680 --> 02:13:16,120
Speaker 1: be better off joining the ACC as a full member.

2324
02:13:16,440 --> 02:13:19,760
Speaker 1: They would likely almost always make the AEC final. But

2325
02:13:19,800 --> 02:13:21,920
Speaker 1: of course that was the pitch Florida State made to

2326
02:13:21,920 --> 02:13:24,000
Speaker 1: Miami coming into the ACC and we know how well

2327
02:13:24,000 --> 02:13:29,280
Speaker 1: that worked out, But it would it would make everything

2328
02:13:29,840 --> 02:13:32,800
Speaker 1: I think cleaner in this and it would it would

2329
02:13:32,840 --> 02:13:37,600
Speaker 1: actually probably still get it would still create more leverage,

2330
02:13:38,680 --> 02:13:40,160
Speaker 1: and it was sort of equal to the veil. I

2331
02:13:40,200 --> 02:13:42,440
Speaker 1: do think there are going to be more conferences in

2332
02:13:42,520 --> 02:13:44,880
Speaker 1: teams that want to that want to try to have

2333
02:13:45,120 --> 02:13:49,080
Speaker 1: a bit more of a of a leverage against sort

2334
02:13:49,080 --> 02:13:53,040
Speaker 1: of this this sec sort of financial juggernaut that ESPN

2335
02:13:53,120 --> 02:13:58,480
Speaker 1: is trying to create. Anyway, But the point is, I'm

2336
02:13:58,520 --> 02:14:02,160
Speaker 1: starting to feel slightly better that if Miami wins out,

2337
02:14:02,160 --> 02:14:04,880
Speaker 1: they're going to get treated fairly here in this, in this,

2338
02:14:05,520 --> 02:14:13,360
Speaker 1: in this comparison, and that uh I saw that yeah yeah,

2339
02:14:13,400 --> 02:14:16,120
Speaker 1: who sports is chief college football writer said it would

2340
02:14:16,120 --> 02:14:20,760
Speaker 1: be it would be pretty much erase whatever little credibility

2341
02:14:20,760 --> 02:14:23,320
Speaker 1: this committee has with many college football fans, and they

2342
02:14:23,320 --> 02:14:26,400
Speaker 1: don't have a lot of credibility, particularly with fans of

2343
02:14:26,440 --> 02:14:28,520
Speaker 1: the a CEC. Mean, what they what was done to

2344
02:14:28,520 --> 02:14:32,240
Speaker 1: Florida State to this day is to me an unforgivable

2345
02:14:32,320 --> 02:14:35,280
Speaker 1: sin and a reminder that that what happens on the

2346
02:14:35,280 --> 02:14:38,320
Speaker 1: field does not matter to this committee. They just want

2347
02:14:38,360 --> 02:14:40,640
Speaker 1: to They're just putting on a TV show. They don't

2348
02:14:40,760 --> 02:14:43,920
Speaker 1: care about the merits of what happens on the field,

2349
02:14:43,960 --> 02:14:45,960
Speaker 1: which I think is just a terrible lesson to teach

2350
02:14:47,120 --> 02:14:53,240
Speaker 1: young men when it comes to life. You know, if if, if,

2351
02:14:53,880 --> 02:14:57,120
Speaker 1: if you rig a sporting event, and that's what you're

2352
02:14:57,160 --> 02:15:00,200
Speaker 1: doing when you punish a team that goes into feed

2353
02:15:00,320 --> 02:15:02,240
Speaker 1: and is a conference champion, and yet you say they

2354
02:15:02,680 --> 02:15:08,360
Speaker 1: don't belong because you think they that without a top

2355
02:15:08,400 --> 02:15:11,600
Speaker 1: level starting quarterback, they're going to get bounced hard. Hey,

2356
02:15:11,640 --> 02:15:13,640
Speaker 1: I don't think that was true in that year. I'm

2357
02:15:13,680 --> 02:15:17,440
Speaker 1: convinced to this day that Florida State beats Michigan because

2358
02:15:17,440 --> 02:15:18,960
Speaker 1: that's who they would have played. They'd probably have been

2359
02:15:19,000 --> 02:15:20,840
Speaker 1: the four seed and they would have played Michigan. I

2360
02:15:20,880 --> 02:15:23,080
Speaker 1: think they'd have beaten Michigan because that's how good that

2361
02:15:23,240 --> 02:15:25,800
Speaker 1: defense was, and they would have had a month to

2362
02:15:25,800 --> 02:15:30,080
Speaker 1: prepare and get that offense there. Don't and don't give

2363
02:15:30,120 --> 02:15:32,880
Speaker 1: me what happened with the Georgia Florida State matchup because

2364
02:15:32,880 --> 02:15:35,600
Speaker 1: Florida State all their good players didn't play in that game.

2365
02:15:35,640 --> 02:15:38,840
Speaker 1: So it is that game is meaningless to me and

2366
02:15:38,960 --> 02:15:42,920
Speaker 1: has no impact whatsoever on what was an egregious decision then,

2367
02:15:44,240 --> 02:15:47,040
Speaker 1: and if keeping Miami out despite winning I head to

2368
02:15:47,080 --> 02:15:50,120
Speaker 1: head a Notre Dame would be equally as egregious and

2369
02:15:50,360 --> 02:15:55,560
Speaker 1: would discourage teams from ever scheduling tough out of conference games.

2370
02:15:56,360 --> 02:15:58,560
Speaker 1: If you're saying those out of conference games don't matter

2371
02:15:58,640 --> 02:16:01,320
Speaker 1: whether you win them, and that's what they would be

2372
02:16:01,360 --> 02:16:03,840
Speaker 1: saying by not crediting by putting Notre Dame in ahead

2373
02:16:03,840 --> 02:16:06,840
Speaker 1: of Miami. They would say, then why schedule Notre Dame

2374
02:16:06,840 --> 02:16:09,520
Speaker 1: in all? Screw them? Let them play Northern Illinois every

2375
02:16:09,520 --> 02:16:15,320
Speaker 1: week anyway. Games that I'm obviously the most Missouri Oklahoma.

2376
02:16:16,600 --> 02:16:19,840
Speaker 1: There's lots of rumors at Missouri's bo Prebula is going

2377
02:16:19,920 --> 02:16:23,480
Speaker 1: to try to make this game. Kudos to Missouri that

2378
02:16:23,480 --> 02:16:25,840
Speaker 1: they want to keep fighting. I have to tell you,

2379
02:16:26,800 --> 02:16:29,000
Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a nail bider.

2380
02:16:29,040 --> 02:16:32,040
Speaker 1: I expect this to be a close game. I don't

2381
02:16:32,040 --> 02:16:34,560
Speaker 1: have a lot of confidence this is one of those

2382
02:16:34,680 --> 02:16:38,879
Speaker 1: Oklahoma just won the biggest game of Brett Vennable's tenure there.

2383
02:16:39,480 --> 02:16:45,039
Speaker 1: And put it this way, I'd be all over the

2384
02:16:45,080 --> 02:16:49,240
Speaker 1: underdog on a point spread cover if given the opportunity,

2385
02:16:49,280 --> 02:16:54,200
Speaker 1: and perhaps I will take that opportunity. USC organ It's

2386
02:16:54,200 --> 02:16:58,280
Speaker 1: at Oregon, an old Pac twelve matchup that used to

2387
02:16:58,320 --> 02:17:01,320
Speaker 1: decide who was going to win the twelve, Right, Oregon's

2388
02:17:01,320 --> 02:17:03,320
Speaker 1: got an interesting last two games. They got this game,

2389
02:17:04,040 --> 02:17:06,760
Speaker 1: so and then they have to play Washington at Washington

2390
02:17:08,400 --> 02:17:11,280
Speaker 1: and that's that's a real rivalry game. So it you know,

2391
02:17:11,879 --> 02:17:14,400
Speaker 1: throw the record books out right type of thing. Uh

2392
02:17:15,080 --> 02:17:17,959
Speaker 1: So the Big Ten, do they get three teams for

2393
02:17:18,000 --> 02:17:22,080
Speaker 1: sure in the playoff or do they only get two? Right?

2394
02:17:23,040 --> 02:17:26,960
Speaker 1: And you know, if here's your scenario, if you know,

2395
02:17:27,200 --> 02:17:32,760
Speaker 1: if Oregon beat USC but loses to Washington, do they

2396
02:17:32,800 --> 02:17:37,400
Speaker 1: make it? I think it? And then suddenly it's Oregon

2397
02:17:37,520 --> 02:17:40,680
Speaker 1: Notre Dame Miami. Maybe for that you know two of

2398
02:17:40,720 --> 02:17:43,160
Speaker 1: those last three, who are the two? Do they sort

2399
02:17:43,200 --> 02:17:45,320
Speaker 1: of avoid the Miami Notre Dame discussion and put both

2400
02:17:45,360 --> 02:17:50,240
Speaker 1: Miami Notre Dame and leave Oregon out? Or if it's

2401
02:17:50,320 --> 02:17:53,080
Speaker 1: USC Notre Dame Miami with the two losses, I think

2402
02:17:53,240 --> 02:17:58,039
Speaker 1: USC definitely gets left out. There Is it possible the

2403
02:17:58,040 --> 02:18:01,560
Speaker 1: Big Ten only gets two teams? Anyway? It is interesting

2404
02:18:01,600 --> 02:18:05,600
Speaker 1: between Michigan, USC and Oregon. And by the way, I

2405
02:18:05,640 --> 02:18:08,400
Speaker 1: fully expect USC to beat Oregon and lose to Ucla

2406
02:18:08,480 --> 02:18:10,920
Speaker 1: the following week, and their rivalry game point is both

2407
02:18:10,959 --> 02:18:13,680
Speaker 1: the USC and Oregon this game matters, but they both

2408
02:18:13,800 --> 02:18:17,440
Speaker 1: have a long time rivalry game the following week, Oregon

2409
02:18:17,480 --> 02:18:22,080
Speaker 1: with Washington and USC with Ucla. So it's that's gonna

2410
02:18:22,080 --> 02:18:24,680
Speaker 1: be a great game. Notre Dame plays Syracuse. Can they

2411
02:18:24,720 --> 02:18:28,240
Speaker 1: beat Syracuse by a bigger margin then Miami beat Syracuse?

2412
02:18:28,440 --> 02:18:31,640
Speaker 1: Is that the fairest way to measure it? Well, it's

2413
02:18:31,680 --> 02:18:34,640
Speaker 1: going to be a way to measure it. Miami won

2414
02:18:34,680 --> 02:18:37,640
Speaker 1: I think thirty eight to ten. Basically at backdoor it

2415
02:18:37,680 --> 02:18:40,360
Speaker 1: was thirty eight to three, and then Syracuse backdoor covered

2416
02:18:40,360 --> 02:18:41,720
Speaker 1: it was a twenty and a half points right in

2417
02:18:41,760 --> 02:18:45,160
Speaker 1: case you were following at home and Notre Dame. I

2418
02:18:45,160 --> 02:18:48,360
Speaker 1: think it's favored by thirty five and a half point.

2419
02:18:48,440 --> 02:18:50,640
Speaker 1: So the expectation is Notre Dame's going to run up

2420
02:18:50,640 --> 02:18:52,560
Speaker 1: the score. Are they going to run up the score?

2421
02:18:52,600 --> 02:18:56,200
Speaker 1: Will they? We shall see Kentucky Vanderbilt. You know, we

2422
02:18:56,200 --> 02:18:58,080
Speaker 1: don't talk about Vanderbilt in the two lost in area.

2423
02:18:58,120 --> 02:19:01,080
Speaker 1: There's almost this assumption that Vanderbilt is is not going

2424
02:19:01,160 --> 02:19:03,400
Speaker 1: to be you know, that they're going to be you know,

2425
02:19:03,440 --> 02:19:05,520
Speaker 1: that they wouldn't get in over Notre Dame, they wouldn't

2426
02:19:05,560 --> 02:19:07,520
Speaker 1: get in over Miami. At least, this is looking like

2427
02:19:07,560 --> 02:19:13,200
Speaker 1: the assumption these days. Kentucky's five and five, they need

2428
02:19:13,240 --> 02:19:15,600
Speaker 1: one more win to be Bowl eligible. They got Louisville

2429
02:19:15,640 --> 02:19:18,680
Speaker 1: next week. That's not an easy game, although we'll see

2430
02:19:18,680 --> 02:19:21,280
Speaker 1: if Louisville has anything to play for. They really don't

2431
02:19:21,280 --> 02:19:24,920
Speaker 1: have anything to play for, but Kentucky might care about

2432
02:19:24,920 --> 02:19:30,800
Speaker 1: Bowl eligibility. Mark Stoops might care. That game smells like

2433
02:19:30,840 --> 02:19:35,040
Speaker 1: one that's going to be sneaky close. On that front,

2434
02:19:35,280 --> 02:19:37,080
Speaker 1: pay attention to there's a whole bunch of five and

2435
02:19:37,160 --> 02:19:39,640
Speaker 1: five teams. Tulane appears to be one of the front

2436
02:19:39,680 --> 02:19:41,680
Speaker 1: runners for the group of five slot in the playoff. Well,

2437
02:19:41,680 --> 02:19:43,920
Speaker 1: they have to go to Temple. Temple's five and five,

2438
02:19:44,280 --> 02:19:46,920
Speaker 1: they need one more win, they care about being Bowl eligible.

2439
02:19:47,280 --> 02:19:49,439
Speaker 1: Keep an eye on that game. That's going to be interesting.

2440
02:19:51,480 --> 02:19:54,640
Speaker 1: Pitt Georgia Tech. This is probably as important as there

2441
02:19:54,720 --> 02:19:58,520
Speaker 1: is for the for the ACC. Obviously, Miami needs Pitt

2442
02:19:58,520 --> 02:20:02,039
Speaker 1: to win this game. I think had BC knocked off

2443
02:20:02,080 --> 02:20:05,120
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech last week, then Pitt beat then the path

2444
02:20:05,160 --> 02:20:07,240
Speaker 1: for Miami to get into the A SEC title game

2445
02:20:07,640 --> 02:20:10,480
Speaker 1: would have been a bit more plausible. Less So now

2446
02:20:11,280 --> 02:20:14,800
Speaker 1: Tennessee Florida. How much does either team? How much does

2447
02:20:14,800 --> 02:20:17,520
Speaker 1: Florida care about this game? That's a question that I have.

2448
02:20:17,640 --> 02:20:22,920
Speaker 1: They look like they kind of quit when they got

2449
02:20:25,200 --> 02:20:28,200
Speaker 1: beat pretty badly by Kentucky. But you know, they gave

2450
02:20:28,200 --> 02:20:29,920
Speaker 1: Ole Miss a little bit more of a game than

2451
02:20:30,000 --> 02:20:31,920
Speaker 1: I expected there. And then a big game in the

2452
02:20:31,920 --> 02:20:36,959
Speaker 1: Big Twelve is BYU at Cincinnati. Let's just say BYU

2453
02:20:37,040 --> 02:20:40,520
Speaker 1: is uncomfortably. You know, they only have one loss. They're

2454
02:20:40,520 --> 02:20:44,119
Speaker 1: two slots ahead of Miami. Nobody expects the Big twelve

2455
02:20:44,160 --> 02:20:47,920
Speaker 1: to get two teams. But can you sit there and

2456
02:20:48,000 --> 02:20:52,200
Speaker 1: ignore an eleven to one one BYU team SMU at

2457
02:20:52,200 --> 02:20:54,240
Speaker 1: eleven and one got in. I don't know how you

2458
02:20:54,360 --> 02:20:56,560
Speaker 1: leave an eleven and one team out. Let's just say,

2459
02:20:56,560 --> 02:20:59,160
Speaker 1: for those of us that want to see Miami into

2460
02:20:59,160 --> 02:21:03,320
Speaker 1: this playoff, we're big bear Cats fans this week on

2461
02:21:03,320 --> 02:21:05,960
Speaker 1: that front. So there you go. That's how I'll be

2462
02:21:06,000 --> 02:21:09,879
Speaker 1: watching college football. And what's exciting for me is I'm

2463
02:21:09,879 --> 02:21:12,960
Speaker 1: watching with my son this weekend. He's in town. My daughter,

2464
02:21:13,560 --> 02:21:17,800
Speaker 1: she's now living and dying by all things hurricanes. So

2465
02:21:19,080 --> 02:21:21,080
Speaker 1: it'll be a lot of fun and a little bit

2466
02:21:21,160 --> 02:21:23,720
Speaker 1: tense in the toddousehold over the next two weekends. But

2467
02:21:23,760 --> 02:21:28,480
Speaker 1: with that, enjoy your weekend and I'll see it Monday.