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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen, twenty, twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five

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Speaker 3: fifty and the kick.

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Speaker 4: As block the college football world Stunners, Oh my goodness.

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Speaker 2: Please stumble the bumble, the lateral.

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Speaker 3: Turn, a counter on the inside, get.

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Speaker 1: You the lad.

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Speaker 5: Table up the field to night.

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Speaker 2: It's not the sage of the dog in the fighting,

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Speaker 2: it's the sage of the fight.

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Speaker 3: What's up the generate nation? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 3: This is the week nine college football well betting preview.

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Speaker 3: I'm stuck in with me as always is Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 3: Were almost into November. I can't believe it. What's going on?

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Speaker 2: Comm to do all this content and type down actually

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Speaker 2: week ten, which is amazing to me. Let me get

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Speaker 2: this out of the way to start the podcast. I'm

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Speaker 2: a one or believer in Ohio State. I've bought them

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Speaker 2: at four to one. I'm gonna get it in the

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Speaker 2: app here after the podcast. And I think I'm going

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Speaker 2: to be playing UMass this weekend. I thought I just

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Speaker 2: announced it on the podcast instead of like a cold

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Speaker 2: hard notification coming through I think this is gonna be

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Speaker 2: a U mass bet.

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Speaker 5: I will grill you on that in a little bit.

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Speaker 3: We usually start with look ahead of it's no real

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Speaker 3: great look ahead spots. And you could maybe say meant

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Speaker 3: this after their big win over to Lane last week

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Speaker 3: with SMU on deck, which will go a long way

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Speaker 3: in the AAC standings, which I've talked about many times.

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Speaker 5: The AAC is the new ACC should be the new

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Speaker 5: power five. But other than that, no real great look

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Speaker 5: at spots.

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Speaker 3: We'll touch briefly on situational spots as we go through

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Speaker 3: the card. We'll go through each conference as we normally do,

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Speaker 3: but let's switch things up this week and start with

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Speaker 3: the marquee games of the weekend.

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Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

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Speaker 1: the marquee matchups. We'll all end up betting for Week nine,

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Speaker 1: so you.

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Speaker 5: Know, decide to switch it up.

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Speaker 3: Because you mentioned Ohio State and I'm still mad at Wisconsin.

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Speaker 3: This should still be an entertaining game, but this game

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Speaker 3: lost so much hype when Wisconsin went down to Illinois.

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Speaker 3: And the question with this game and this right now,

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Speaker 3: this game is sitting. It's been sitting right around fourteen,

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Speaker 3: fourteen and a half. This is a noon kick at

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Speaker 3: the Shoe on Fox. Assumed Guss will be calling it.

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Speaker 3: It's sitting Ohio State fourteen point favorite over under forty

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Speaker 3: nine and a half fifty ish. The question is how

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Speaker 3: much was Wisconsin sleeping or looking ahead to this week?

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Speaker 3: And how do you tell that? Usually it's with the

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Speaker 3: energy of the field mistackles. Illinois had a couple of

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Speaker 3: touchdowns on misstackle, so I think there was a little

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Speaker 3: bit of that. And if you look at the defensive

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Speaker 3: metrics for Wisconsin, they're all excellent, but they haven't really

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Speaker 3: played anybody, you know, So I mean they're like number

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Speaker 3: one in the country and a lot of defensive metrics,

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Speaker 3: but you know, they played Central Michigan. They played Michigan

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Speaker 3: when Michigan was reeling South Florida, Northwestern Kent State, you know,

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Speaker 3: Michigan State, who I think had nothing left in the

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Speaker 3: tank after the Ohio State game, and then Illinois, So

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Speaker 3: I don't know how real it is now. The one

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Speaker 3: thing that I know Wisconsin is going to try and

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Speaker 3: do is control the clock. With Jonathan Taylor, They're going

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Speaker 3: to try to run the ball. They do play slow

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Speaker 3: and you know, on the defensive side of the ball.

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Speaker 3: The one thing that I'm mainly concerned about is their secondary.

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Speaker 3: You saw them give up a couple of big plays

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Speaker 3: to Illinois. They just don't have the athletes to contain

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Speaker 3: Ohio State, who doesn't rely on one receiver you know,

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Speaker 3: feels really spreads the ball around. Now, what Wisconsin can

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Speaker 3: do with their two four five is they can get pressure.

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Speaker 3: They're predominantly three four is going to bring a ton

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Speaker 3: of pressure. They've outstanding linebackers. That's what they're gonna have

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Speaker 3: to do. Because if there's only one weakness I could

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Speaker 3: find in Ohio State, and really it's only one because

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Speaker 3: I'm a believer in that defense, and I don't know

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Speaker 3: how Wisconsin is going to consistently move the ball. I've

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Speaker 3: been believer in that run defense. Now it's Ohio State's

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Speaker 3: offensive line.

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Speaker 5: They have some injuries.

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Speaker 3: They're giving up pressure on twenty five percent at dropbacks.

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Speaker 3: It's outside you know, the top seventy in college football.

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Speaker 3: So if they can get the fields and pressure him,

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Speaker 3: that's the only way they can slow down what do

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Speaker 3: you see here?

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Speaker 2: The question is if they can get to fields and

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Speaker 2: if they can stop the running game of the Buckeyes,

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Speaker 2: which is, you know, could be a real problem. I

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Speaker 2: think what we saw last week was the first time

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Speaker 2: that Jack Cone ever actually was under real pressure having

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Speaker 2: to make a real situational play under three minutes. I

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Speaker 2: think there was about you know, two and a half

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Speaker 2: left to go in the game. He gets intercepted by

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Speaker 2: Illinois and the rest is history. You've had to put

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Speaker 2: the game on Jack coness back. He just didn't live

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Speaker 2: up to what he needed to get done. And they've

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Speaker 2: never had to be in that position before. I mean,

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Speaker 2: forty eight zero against Kent, thirty eight zero against Michigan State,

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Speaker 2: you know, Michigan thirty five to fourteen. Jack Cone not

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Speaker 2: been I mean, he's been nice to have and he's

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Speaker 2: been serviceable. But these wins start with the ground game

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Speaker 2: and the ground attack and how good the defense has been,

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Speaker 2: especially from a havoc perspective. But Jack Cone has kind

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Speaker 2: of been behind all these other reasons why Wisconsin has

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Speaker 2: been winning all these games. When the game came down

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Speaker 2: to it against Illinois and the pressure was on, Jack

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Speaker 2: Cone couldn't get to get it done. So what I

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Speaker 2: see in this game, I make the line sixteen, these

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Speaker 2: are the top two HAVOC teams in the nation. But

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Speaker 2: you know, Ohio State has just so much better stats

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Speaker 2: across the board, arguably played you know, a tougher schedule,

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Speaker 2: but I mean, look at what Ohio State's gonna do.

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Speaker 2: I can talk about how great Justin Fields is. I'm

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Speaker 2: talking about JK. Dobbins, but really this is where the

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Speaker 2: game comes down to. Is they're going to stack the

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Speaker 2: box and sell out to stop Jonathan Taylor, which is

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Speaker 2: something that I think that they can do. The question

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Speaker 2: is can Jack Cone in single coverage make them pay

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Speaker 2: for it. I don't think that they can. I mean,

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Speaker 2: I think this is going to be the second area

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Speaker 2: of Akudah Wade Arnette Fuller. These guys are going to

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Speaker 2: be in single coverage, and I think they're gonna make

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Speaker 2: Cone pay for Ohio State has ten interceptions that ranks

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Speaker 2: top ten. They just have thirty six passes defense that's

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Speaker 2: mid FBS. But from an I INT level, they're able

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Speaker 2: to They've been able to be top ten and have

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Speaker 2: ten I t's already, So I think that the secondary

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Speaker 2: for Ohio State is going to be the difference, and

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Speaker 2: I don't think Jack Cone's going to be able to

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Speaker 2: get a downfield. I think single coverage is going to

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Speaker 2: be just fine. They're going to sell out and stop

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Speaker 2: Jonathan Taylor. So I mean, if you haven't been to

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Speaker 2: pick a pool, I would take Ohio State. I'm certainly

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Speaker 2: not going to play this unless I see a thirteen

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Speaker 2: and a half. But I think more importantly, I think

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Speaker 2: this is really the time we're gonna get to this game.

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Speaker 2: But I mean, this is really the time to buy

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Speaker 2: Ohio State. I mean it was time to buy it before,

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Speaker 2: but now we have all the data. We have all

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Speaker 2: the explosiveness, all the success rate. We know that they've

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Speaker 2: been number two in havoc while Wisconsin has been number one.

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Speaker 2: We've known about this, the team speed, Shiano's out of there,

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Speaker 2: the whole running slants on the defensive line and the

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Speaker 2: offense running the other way. Everything's been corrected, everything's been fixed.

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Speaker 2: Ryan Day and his presser this week on Monday, said

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Speaker 2: we got to start this game fast. We got to

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Speaker 2: start this game fast. So I know the total is

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Speaker 2: dipping down to forty nine, but I just have a

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Speaker 2: feeling that if Ohio State has a chance to put

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Speaker 2: their foot on the pedal, they may score forty two. Themselves.

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Speaker 2: I don't. I would not take an under in this

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Speaker 2: game whatsoever because Ryan Day has only talked about how

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Speaker 2: we got to go fast. But I think now is

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Speaker 2: the time we're by national championship in Ohio State because essentially,

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Speaker 2: I think Penn State's the only thing keeping them for

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Speaker 2: going to the college football Playoff. Who a they gonna

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Speaker 2: play Minnesota in the Big Ten Championship game, Michigan in

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Speaker 2: the final game when Michigan has two losses in conference play,

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Speaker 2: Penn State is going to be the game. And I

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Speaker 2: project Ohio State to be thirteen point favorites in that game.

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Speaker 2: So if that's the only thing that's keeping them for

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Speaker 2: going to the college football Playoff, I think four to one,

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Speaker 2: it's going to continue to go down further. I think

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Speaker 2: they're gonna jump Clemson in Alabama, and odds it might

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Speaker 2: be the last chance to get a national championship. Future

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Speaker 2: on Ohio State.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, Jonathan Taylor two has been stymied

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Speaker 3: against some of these defenses. You know, some of the

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Speaker 3: better defense, another really good run defense. It's Northwestern and

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Speaker 3: Michigan State. You know, twenty six carries for under one

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Speaker 3: hundred yards against Michigan State. I think got eighty three

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Speaker 3: twenty six carries like one hundred and eighteen yards against Northwestern.

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Speaker 3: So I believe in this Ohio State defense. But I

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Speaker 3: also do believe in Wisconsin's defense. In their front seven.

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Speaker 3: From what I've seen, they have excellent, excellent linebackers. You

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Speaker 3: know seeingior linebackers Zach Bawd, Chris or They're excellent, and

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Speaker 3: they can get after the quarterback or can make you know,

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Speaker 3: can kind of spy make sure Fields doesn't scramble too much.

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Speaker 3: He'll also get after the quarterback. They're gonna bring a

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Speaker 3: ton of pressure. It's ken that secondary hold up the

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Speaker 3: pace that you just brought up that day wants to

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Speaker 3: play with. Does concern me a little bit because I

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Speaker 3: was leaning towards the under because I just don't this

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Speaker 3: Wisconsin offense just has no explosiveness, and the Ohio State

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Speaker 3: secondary is legit, and they can shut down Jonathan Taylor

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Speaker 3: with their front seven. It's just gonna be a tough

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Speaker 3: day for Wisconsin. I think it's just going to have

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Speaker 3: to crawl with the ball and try and churn out

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Speaker 3: yards and play keep away. So I actually lean towards

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Speaker 3: the under. But you bring up a good point with

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Speaker 3: Day and the pace, we'll have a right up on

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Speaker 3: this game, so I'll dig in it up before I

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Speaker 3: place any bet there. All right, let's move on to

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Speaker 3: one of the other marquee games of the weekend. Michigan

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Speaker 3: Notre Dame is an interest game in that Situationally, this

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Speaker 3: really favors Notre Dame.

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Speaker 5: Notre Dame is coming off of a buy.

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Speaker 3: So they had two weeks to prepare for Michigan, while

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Speaker 3: Michigan is coming off an emotional loss at Penn State.

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Speaker 3: You know, dropped past late after that, you know, huge

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Speaker 3: comeback after being down twenty one nothing. Once again, Penn

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Speaker 3: State was outplayed overall by Michigan. You know, the argument

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Speaker 3: for Michigan here is they made some changes along their

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Speaker 3: defensive line. Their defense is playing better overall. You know,

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Speaker 3: Patterson still is shaky, but the offense in general is

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Speaker 3: starting to get a little more rhythm, right, And that's

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Speaker 3: what you would expect from a team that's installing a

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Speaker 3: new system. I thought it would happen a lot sooner,

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Speaker 3: but you know, two months into the season, maybe the

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Speaker 3: Wolverines are starting to get some rhythm in this new system.

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Speaker 3: The offensive line is playing better.

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Speaker 5: One thing I'll mention with Notre Dame.

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Speaker 3: Not Dable doesn't have like these real speedy wide receivers

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Speaker 3: which kill Michigan all the time, and they're crossing routes

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Speaker 3: a year about it all the time, and they don't

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Speaker 3: have the fastest corners. Last week, handler is the only

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Speaker 3: thing that Penn State had go for it. Eight targets,

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Speaker 3: had six catches for one hundred and eight yards and

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Speaker 3: two touchdowns. Notre Dame doesn't have anyone like that and

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Speaker 3: books a mobile quarterback. Michigan just saw a mobile quarterback

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Speaker 3: in Clifford and held him in check. So there are

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Speaker 3: some things to like about Michigan here. This series has

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Speaker 3: also been dominated by the home team. A home team,

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Speaker 3: I think it's one eight of nine, and Michigan clearly

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Speaker 3: has played a lot better at home.

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Speaker 5: They're a younger team this year.

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Speaker 3: And people will give hardball grief against these bigger teams

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Speaker 3: against top ten teams, But keep in mind, Brian Kelly,

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Speaker 3: He's two to ten on the road against ranked teams.

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Speaker 3: I would love to get Michigan here as a dog.

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Speaker 3: The situation is not ideal, and one of the things

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Speaker 3: that I'm keeping my eye on is this Notre Dame secondary,

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Speaker 3: which it lost a lot from last year, their defense

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Speaker 3: in general, but Sean Crawford, they really missed him against

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Speaker 3: USC and they got tore up, and they really should

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Speaker 3: have lost to USC if not for a slow start.

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Speaker 3: But Sean Crawford, their senior corner, might be back this week.

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Speaker 3: That would be a big boost for their secondary. But

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Speaker 3: I think Michigan can have some success throwing the ball.

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Speaker 3: It is a tough situational spot. What do you see here?

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Speaker 2: He completely agree with you one hundred percent. Hammler does

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Speaker 2: not play for Notre Dame, which means when Michigan applies pressure,

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Speaker 2: which they are, they have been able to apply pressure

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Speaker 2: with their sacrate, they've gotten much better. Get into the

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Speaker 2: quarterback that's going to flush Ian Book out of the pocket,

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Speaker 2: get him outside the two tackles, and then he's gonna

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Speaker 2: have to become a playmaker. And little speedybacks like Hamdler,

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Speaker 2: that's not Notre Dames, that's not Notre Dames wide receivers whatsoever.

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Speaker 2: So I actually love Michigan in this game. And the

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Speaker 2: hesitation on buying the line is because I expect a

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Speaker 2: plethora of Notre Dame money to be coming in all

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Speaker 2: the way up until kick. I think this will settle

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Speaker 2: it about two and a half, maybe a three. So

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Speaker 2: that's why I'm waiting to at this line instead of

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Speaker 2: getting Michigan plus one, I think it's going to become

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Speaker 2: much better. But it is a play on Michigan. I

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Speaker 2: was actually impressed with Michigan. You know, they were down

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Speaker 2: twenty one to zero in a hostile environment against Penn State,

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Speaker 2: a white out. You know, they got down twenty one

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Speaker 2: zero and Sean Clifford was averaging seven yards per play

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Speaker 2: in the first half. Turn to the second half. Michigan

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Speaker 2: won the rest of the game twenty one to seven.

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Speaker 2: They limited Penn State's offense to one point nine yards

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Speaker 2: per play in the second half. And you're right, they

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Speaker 2: drop touchdown, dropped catch, a beautiful throw by Patterson, dropped

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Speaker 2: pass away from tying that ball game up. And so

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Speaker 2: I really like Michigan in this. I think they've got

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Speaker 2: their heads on right. They're treating this kind of like

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Speaker 2: a conference game. They're not taking this game for granted,

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Speaker 2: you've already mentioned about Brian Kelly on the road Notre

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Speaker 2: Dames just covered once in their past six games period,

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Speaker 2: But Notre Dames only won this game once in the

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Speaker 2: last eight trips up to the Big House, so it

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Speaker 2: has not been a good trip for them. And you

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Speaker 2: mentioned about how Michigan's not making as many's mistakes. I

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Speaker 2: harped on the first two games of the season about

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Speaker 2: how bad their havoc allowed rate was. Their offense just

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Speaker 2: couldn't get out of way of turning the ball over.

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Speaker 2: But that number has increased from outside top one hundred

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Speaker 2: up to fortieth. Now, when you say, well, fortieth and

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Speaker 2: havoc allowed, that's not great. It's a lot better than

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Speaker 2: it was after the first two weeks when they were

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Speaker 2: ranking outside the top one hundred, So that continues to

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Speaker 2: get better. They continue to protect the football. Consider the

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Speaker 2: past two weeks that Shape Patterson has been sacked just

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Speaker 2: once by Penn State and zero times by Illinois. You

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Speaker 2: maybe set Clemson aside. I'd venture to say Penn State

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Speaker 2: is the best defense in the nation and the reason

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Speaker 2: why they've done so well and been able to hide

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Speaker 2: some of their deficiencies. Penn State's deficiencies on offense. But

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Speaker 2: I like Michigan's defense in this I like their attitude

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Speaker 2: going into this game. I don't like Notre Dame on

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Speaker 2: the road. Handler is not playing on the outside. He

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Speaker 2: played for Notre Dame. They don't have any guys like this.

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Speaker 2: It's a big switch for them to go from air

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Speaker 2: raid to what shape Patterson Michigan brings. It's more of

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Speaker 2: a big, physical wide receiver and tight end passing attack

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Speaker 2: than the deep ball to speedy receivers, and I think

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Speaker 2: that plays into Michigan's favor here.

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Speaker 5: I would completely agree.

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Speaker 3: Michigan outcame Penn State last week four seventeen to two

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Speaker 3: eighty three, ran eighty two plays to Penn State's fifty

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Speaker 3: four Another lucky Penn State box score win. And as

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Speaker 3: I mentioned before, we'll have a write up on Notre

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Speaker 3: Dame Michigan going is in depth as you will fight

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Speaker 3: on Action Network dot Com in the Action app. All right,

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Speaker 3: let's move on to the third marquee game of the

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Speaker 3: weekend between two top twenty five teams and that's Auburn LSU.

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Speaker 3: This line currently at ten ten and a half at

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Speaker 3: some books over under fifty nine fifty nine and a half,

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Speaker 3: and I think that's what this is going to come

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Speaker 3: down to, is LSU, no matter where you look on

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Speaker 3: their their defense has some questions, right, but can bo

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Speaker 3: Nicks take advantage of that? Can Auburn establish a running game?

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Speaker 3: You know, Whitlow's not there now, but they get their

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Speaker 3: running in Gus. We'll get it in with a number

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Speaker 3: of different players. But I think the loss of Witlow

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Speaker 3: hurts in a game like this when you know they

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Speaker 3: want to just line up, pound the ball, control the clock,

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Speaker 3: keep Burrow off the field. You know, the question here

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Speaker 3: becomes can Auburn's front seven, which is excellent, it's one

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Speaker 3: of the best in all of college football, can it

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Speaker 3: get to Burrow? Can it disrupt Burrow and this passing attack?

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Speaker 3: And Alburn likes to play press man, I don't know

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Speaker 3: if they can really do that here against LSU's receivers.

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Speaker 3: I think they're gonna have to play more zone. I

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Speaker 3: think they're going to have to get pressure. But if

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Speaker 3: you look at a lot of the metrics ls's offensive line,

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Speaker 3: it's playing really well. So that's that's I think the

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Speaker 3: matchup is going to be can Auburn get to Burrow?

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Speaker 3: Because Burrow is not making many mistakes, He's playing so

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Speaker 3: out out of his mind all year. The clear and

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Speaker 3: deserved front runner for the Heisman. And then on the

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Speaker 3: other side, LSU's defense does have question marks, but they

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Speaker 3: have a solid secondary. Can't they just sell it on

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Speaker 3: the run and feeling that bow Knix isn't going to

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Speaker 3: beat them. If you look what bow Knicks has done

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Speaker 3: against really good defenses, it's not encouraging.

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Speaker 2: Bow Nicks season then full effect.

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Speaker 5: See the Florida game. What do you see here?

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Speaker 2: I'm actually waiting on the market to come down to

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Speaker 2: a nine and a half. There's been a couple of

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Speaker 2: nine and a half show in this line and then

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Speaker 2: it's gone immediately. The LSU money has come in pretty

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Speaker 2: stir strong on that, and I believe it's real Auburn

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Speaker 2: money that's knocked it down from say twelve and a

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Speaker 2: half or twelve all the way down to the ten

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Speaker 2: ten and a half. So, I mean, there's a real

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Speaker 2: battle here going on between people about wanting Auburn at

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Speaker 2: a higher number than eleven and people wanting LSU at

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Speaker 2: nine and a half. And I'm kind of in the

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Speaker 2: boat with the LSU nine and a half. There's just

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Speaker 2: certain things that I can't get over. First Off, Terrence

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Speaker 2: Marshall is a big return for Joe Burrow, not just

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Speaker 2: in downfield passing, but this is his primary red zone target.

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Speaker 2: I think he had three touchdowns in the red zone

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Speaker 2: against Georgia's Southern They were all passes underneath eleven yards.

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Speaker 2: Multiple red zone touchdowns after that, Terrence Marshall is a

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Speaker 2: safety blanket for Joe Burrow and that's going to help

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Speaker 2: them in the red zone. Like they needed any help offensively, right,

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Speaker 2: But LSU is returning, you know, a big piece of

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Speaker 2: their offense and a big part of what Joe Burrow

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Speaker 2: is going to need to get out of situations when

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Speaker 2: he's under pressure. Auburn can put it on you fast

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Speaker 2: with that front seven, But Joe Burrow's release time I

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Speaker 2: think is in the top ten. Like I think two

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Speaker 2: point three seconds is how long it's taking him to

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Speaker 2: get rid of the ball, which is one of the

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Speaker 2: best in the nation. So you know, Lsho's outside the

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Speaker 2: top one hundred an opponent explosive passing. So the question

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Speaker 2: is if Auburn's going to cover this game possibly upset,

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Speaker 2: you know, can bo Nix throw it down the field

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Speaker 2: and can they expose them in that opponent explosive pass

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Speaker 2: problem that LSU has and Nick has the top two

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Speaker 2: hundred yards and three of the last four games, everybody's

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Speaker 2: thrown it Agassissipi State, everybody's thrown it against Darkansas. Bo

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Speaker 2: did go twelve to seventeen against Arkansas. At the same time,

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Speaker 2: you know, this LSU team, there's just so many things

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Speaker 2: that I see where they can take advantage of Auburn

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Speaker 2: coming in there. One of them's being havoc. You know,

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Speaker 2: we talk about LSU and their HAVOC rate. Both these

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Speaker 2: teams are really good at havoc. But the problem with

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Speaker 2: Auburn is there seventy fifth and havoc allowed. One of

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Speaker 2: the most amazing stats that I just can't get over

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Speaker 2: is that Auburn's offense has fumbled the ball fifteen times.

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Speaker 2: That's top ten in the nation. They fumbled the ball

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Speaker 2: fifteen times. They have fallen on those fifteen ten times.

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Speaker 2: Of the fifteen times they put it on the carpet,

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Speaker 2: Auburn has fallen on the ball ten times. The fumble

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Speaker 2: luck has been insane for Auburn. But I mean, we

395
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Speaker 2: go back to that whole odd year thing where they

396
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Speaker 2: seem to do crazy stuff with November still yet to come.

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Speaker 2: So for me, I'm waiting for the nine and a half.

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Speaker 2: I just don't think anybody's going to be able to

399
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Speaker 2: stop LSU's passing attack. That includes Alabama in two weeks.

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Speaker 2: I think it comes down to havoc and LSU's the

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Speaker 2: one that's got the advantage in that category.

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Speaker 3: These games recently have been really close for what it's worth,

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Speaker 3: you know, and you know, if you look at these

404
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Speaker 3: three Marque games, Ohio State has owned wisconsinent ofly.

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Speaker 5: They've won six straight.

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Speaker 3: So a lot of them have been close, except that

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Speaker 3: Big Ten championship game where Ohio State went fifty nine nothing.

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Speaker 3: The biggest difference has been Ohio State speed. Alburtn LSU

409
00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:02,719
Speaker 3: have been really close the last few years and then

410
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Speaker 3: nota day. Michigan has been a home dominated series. So

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Speaker 3: I'll be interested to see what gusts and that defense,

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Speaker 3: what they do.

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Speaker 5: You know, you have a former.

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Speaker 3: LSU guy, Steals the defensive coordinator for Auburn. I think

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Speaker 3: they have to go zone, they have to get pressure,

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Speaker 3: and they have to cause they have to get picks.

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Speaker 3: I don't think that they're going to be able to

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Speaker 3: stop this LSU defense trying to play man and the

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Speaker 3: LSU offensive line is playing well. I think they have

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Speaker 3: to get exotic. And one thing to always keep in

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Speaker 3: mind is what will Gus have up his sleeve for

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Speaker 3: the second half as far as adjustment, So that's something.

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Speaker 5: To keep your eye on as well.

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Speaker 2: This is the one year anniversary game of when I

425
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Speaker 2: was bagging on Joe Burrow for being conservative, couldn't throw

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00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:42,880
Speaker 2: it down the field. He was averaging four yards per pass.

427
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Speaker 2: Auburn had a lead of eleven points covering the ten

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Speaker 2: and a half, and Joe Burrow clutch time came out

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Speaker 2: of nowhere. So we'll see if that kind of transformation

430
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Speaker 2: that we've talked about with bo Nicks is going to

431
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Speaker 2: happen being a downfield passer and being clutch. This is

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Speaker 2: his chance to do what Joe Burrow did against Auburn

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Speaker 2: last year and then full effect.

434
00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:05,560
Speaker 3: I believe them borrow that game alright, LSU against you there,

435
00:19:05,880 --> 00:19:07,720
Speaker 3: all right, So it should be a good one. Three

436
00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 3: marquee games that will go a long way in determining

437
00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:14,320
Speaker 3: playoff implications. I mean, Michigan is out of it, but

438
00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:15,680
Speaker 3: notre dame outside shot.

439
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,200
Speaker 5: If they lose, they're done. Ohio State.

440
00:19:18,240 --> 00:19:21,720
Speaker 3: You know, Wisconsin still probably controls their own destiny because

441
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:26,159
Speaker 3: if they beat Ohio State twice, they're probably probably in.

442
00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:28,399
Speaker 3: You know, Ohio State's out, and if they win the

443
00:19:28,400 --> 00:19:32,920
Speaker 3: Big Ten with two wins of Ohio State, probably in, right, Yeah, absolutely, yeah,

444
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:35,960
Speaker 3: So Ohio State obviously, if they keep winning, their going in.

445
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:41,520
Speaker 3: And then you know Auburn LSU obviously LSU is in

446
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:42,520
Speaker 3: the playoff discussion.

447
00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,240
Speaker 5: So three huge games on Saturday.

448
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:48,040
Speaker 3: All right, let's go through each of the conferences here

449
00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 3: and highlight you know a game or two that intrigues us.

450
00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:56,600
Speaker 3: Will start in the ACC And unfortunately I have to

451
00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,520
Speaker 3: play Miami. You know, Miami plus six against pitt This

452
00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:02,199
Speaker 3: game will be in Hines Field. I'm not happy about it.

453
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,919
Speaker 3: But once I saw plus six, there's still questions on

454
00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,440
Speaker 3: who's going to play quarterback for them. You know, Thomas,

455
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:10,520
Speaker 3: they're one of their best receivers is out. He suspended again.

456
00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:13,400
Speaker 3: DJ Dallas, their running back is probably not going to play.

457
00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 3: This team is a mess in a lot of different ways.

458
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 3: But having said that, this team is competitive every week

459
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 3: and there are a couple plays away from being seven

460
00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,040
Speaker 3: to zero and in the playoff discussion, I mean, it

461
00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:29,160
Speaker 3: is insane. Miami has had the worst luck I think

462
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:31,359
Speaker 3: I've ever seen it. I make this game a complete pick.

463
00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,360
Speaker 3: It's a toss up to me to really good defenses,

464
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:36,560
Speaker 3: to offenses that are in question.

465
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:36,719
Speaker 1: Now.

466
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:40,080
Speaker 3: The Miami offensive line against this pit defensive line, which

467
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,639
Speaker 3: leads the nation in sacks per game. Miami's I think

468
00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:44,359
Speaker 3: one hundred and twenty seventh or one hundred and twenty

469
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,919
Speaker 3: eighth and sacks per game allowed does worry me. But

470
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 3: they do have a couple of mobile quarterbacks.

471
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:50,480
Speaker 5: Something else to keep in mind.

472
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 3: Bandy, their corner who went out against sort of tech.

473
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:54,920
Speaker 3: He looks to be healthy. Pinkney, one of their star

474
00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:58,200
Speaker 3: senior linebackers, is not. But they're gonna play McLeod another

475
00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 3: senior linebacker, because he has another game to go. They

476
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 3: don't want to burn his redshirt. That's why he didn't

477
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:03,840
Speaker 3: come in the game last week and they used some

478
00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:06,119
Speaker 3: walk on But I think the Miami defense, which is

479
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:09,200
Speaker 3: played excellent all year by some metrics, I mean most metrics,

480
00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:11,320
Speaker 3: Miami is a better team than pick, and I agree

481
00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,640
Speaker 3: make this game a true pick. In Heinz Field, both

482
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 3: teams have had kicking issues.

483
00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 5: This is a mess.

484
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 3: It also should be really low scoring. The over under

485
00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:21,240
Speaker 3: is crashed down to forty three, which makes the six

486
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 3: points even more valuable. But I mean, I could just

487
00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 3: look at Miami. I mean, last week they lost to

488
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:30,680
Speaker 3: Georgia Tech after all of those injuries because Georgia Tech

489
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 3: had two non offensive touchdowns and Miami missed three field goals,

490
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:37,119
Speaker 3: two field goals from twenty five to win it and

491
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:39,879
Speaker 3: another one from thirty seven, just a disaster. And then

492
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 3: and if you keep going, they lost to VA Tech

493
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 3: forty two to thirty five because of a bunch of turnovers.

494
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:48,160
Speaker 3: They outgained VA Tech five sixty three to three thirty seven,

495
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,919
Speaker 3: seven point three yards per play to five point three.

496
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 3: That should have been a win. They beat Virginia, they

497
00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:56,639
Speaker 3: barely beat Central Michigan. They rolled the Thune Cookman and

498
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:58,879
Speaker 3: then North Carolina they outgained by one hundred yards, and

499
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:02,119
Speaker 3: they lost to Florida, you know, by four points. So

500
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 3: this team is a lot better than the record. This

501
00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 3: is pretty much their season. This game, I think that's

502
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:09,320
Speaker 3: a close game, probably field goal either way. I'm on

503
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:11,480
Speaker 3: the Canes, unfortunately, not happy about it, but I have

504
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 3: to do it at the number.

505
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:15,520
Speaker 2: Whenever you're betting on ACC Coastal, it's like it's like

506
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:17,359
Speaker 2: giving money to a friend that you only see every

507
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 2: three years, you might not get it back, So just

508
00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 2: emotionally settle yourself that you may not see the money again.

509
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 2: I don't know what this number is. I make this

510
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,200
Speaker 2: game pit minus one. I mean, I've been correct on

511
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:30,159
Speaker 2: Pit point spreads every single week, and I make this

512
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,440
Speaker 2: pit minus one. So I don't understand, like the point

513
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 2: spreads just outrageous to have Pit favored by this many points.

514
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:37,920
Speaker 2: But at the same time, I'm not looking in back Miami.

515
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,639
Speaker 2: I know you're I don't blame anybody for back in Miami,

516
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 2: but there's just some things with Miami that I can't take. So,

517
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:45,600
Speaker 2: first off, both these teams are, you know, very high

518
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 2: on havoc. We know that Pitt's defense is first and

519
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 2: passing success rate. Miami's defense is fifteenth and passing success rate,

520
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 2: So throwing it through the air is going to be

521
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 2: a problem for both teams. But you know, Miami's one

522
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty seventh and sacks given up. A lot

523
00:22:58,280 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 2: of that has to do with the Cosey Perry and

524
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:02,919
Speaker 2: Jared william scrambling, a lot poor offensive line play with

525
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:04,359
Speaker 2: a bunch of you know, new kids up there at

526
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,640
Speaker 2: the line, but I mean Perry and Williams do scramble

527
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 2: on that accounts for some of the sacks. But Miami's

528
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,680
Speaker 2: got Arkansas problems. They've got one hundred and twenty fifth

529
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 2: in red zone scoring percentage, one hundred and twenty third

530
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 2: and third down conversions. Great job, Danny, you knows. I

531
00:23:17,359 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 2: just can't put my money when you know, when I

532
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,440
Speaker 2: see red zone efficiency and I see third down efficiency

533
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 2: like this, I have our time putting my money against it.

534
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:25,919
Speaker 2: And because I make pitt minus one, I'm just not

535
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 2: going to touch the game.

536
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 3: You might have some weather too, with some rain in Pittsburgh.

537
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 3: Something to keep an eye on Saturday. All right, let's

538
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 3: move on to another game the ACC and that is

539
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 3: a game that I like. Boston College at Clemson. Clemson

540
00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:46,359
Speaker 3: minus thirty four and a half now over under fifty nine.

541
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 3: You know, I played Clemson minus thirty three and a

542
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 3: half for the game, minus twenty and a half for

543
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,439
Speaker 3: the first half. This has blow out written all over it.

544
00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 3: You know, Clemson's run defense, their defense overall has been great.

545
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 3: But Boston College, who wants to go fast, which is

546
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 3: I think a nightmare in this Their defense is absolutely atrocious.

547
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:05,920
Speaker 5: Bad bad, bad.

548
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:08,719
Speaker 3: Their defense No matter where you look, the Boston College

549
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:12,199
Speaker 3: defense is awful. This is probably your Trevor Lawrence go

550
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 3: off game, and then you know Clemson can just take

551
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 3: away the run of Boston College. You know, they're down

552
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:21,880
Speaker 3: to a quarterback that was six on their depth chart

553
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:23,760
Speaker 3: last year. They lost Anthony Brown for the year, then

554
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 3: they had about four or five guys transfer out, and

555
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:28,880
Speaker 3: now they're down to this kid, gross Sell, who's just terrible.

556
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:30,640
Speaker 3: I mean last week against NC State, he went six

557
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,639
Speaker 3: of fifteen for one hundred yards and BC still scored

558
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,240
Speaker 3: forty five points. Says a lot about NC State. But

559
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 3: they can just make BC one dimensional. They're going to

560
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:42,119
Speaker 3: force turnovers and this BC defense is awful. This sets

561
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 3: up as a blowoiout for Clemson and Trevor Lawrence.

562
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:46,160
Speaker 5: Do you agree?

563
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I absolutely agree. This is one of those games

564
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 2: where the points spread is so high and if Dazio

565
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 2: wants to go speed against Clemson, Clemson would be more

566
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 2: than happy to do that with them. So it could

567
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 2: be one of these games where possibly you look at

568
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 2: taking in the first half. You know that when Stuck

569
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 2: said the Boston College's defense is bad, he wasn't kidding.

570
00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:09,440
Speaker 2: They're one hundred and twenty fifth in defending pass explosiveness.

571
00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 2: That's not going to get it done. Boston College is

572
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 2: one hundred and sixteenth in total defense. That's bad. They're

573
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:15,920
Speaker 2: one hundred nineteenth in sacks. They're not going to press

574
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 2: for to Trevor Lawrence. So I mean, they do have

575
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 2: this good running back tandem. I think it's something that

576
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:21,879
Speaker 2: we should watch for the future. I think Boston College

577
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 2: is something that we want to look at in the

578
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,440
Speaker 2: future because David Bailey and AJ Dillon are you know,

579
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 2: through a four hundred and twenty nine yards combined against

580
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 2: Incy State. They've run for at least two hundred and

581
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 2: fifty yards the past four games. So we'll be looking

582
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 2: to play Boston College and teams that can't handle tempo

583
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 2: and teams that are having problems against the rush. But

584
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 2: this isn't the game. The thing that worries to me

585
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 2: about Clemson is that their offense is seventy fifth and

586
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,399
Speaker 2: passing success. Need to see that improve here. This is

587
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 2: the offense to get healthy on. If they can't improve

588
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 2: on this, then this is an actual legit problem. I'm

589
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 2: not saying Clemson's bored or they just want to be

590
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 2: vanilla or they're just not going to wake up and

591
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 2: play until December. But this is an offense that they

592
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 2: have got to get the passing success or it going.

593
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 5: Yep.

594
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 3: If you're one dimensional against this Clemson defense, good luck.

595
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 3: And Boston College is third of the nation and seconds

596
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:11,919
Speaker 3: per play. Speaking of fast teams, Florida State and Syracuse,

597
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 3: those are two speed racers playing the totals up to sixty.

598
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 3: Those are two of the fastest teams that just want to.

599
00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 5: Go, go, go, go, go, go go.

600
00:26:18,760 --> 00:26:21,360
Speaker 3: I'm looking at the over don't. I don't know if

601
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 3: I want to get involved with. You know, Syracuse to

602
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 3: Tommy DeVito is questionable. His backup might be better. You know,

603
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:28,920
Speaker 3: there's some offensive line issues on Florida State, but from

604
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 3: a pace of play perspective, you are going to see

605
00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 3: a ton of plays in that game. Last week Florida

606
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,440
Speaker 3: State wake Forest was only twenty two to twenty. There

607
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:42,320
Speaker 3: are some weather and some red zone issues, but Florida

608
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,680
Speaker 3: State around eighty nine plays in that game. Eighty nine,

609
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:47,160
Speaker 3: So you're gonna see a ton of plays in the game.

610
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:50,119
Speaker 3: So I'd be careful if you're looking at that under

611
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 3: I hope.

612
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:52,679
Speaker 4: You're enjoying this great action network podcast. I want to

613
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,200
Speaker 4: make sure you know about the Locked On podcast network.

614
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 4: Locked On as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

615
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,240
Speaker 5: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. If you are

616
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 5: locked down of the Dallas matriage, we can everybody still.

617
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 2: The Locked on Lakers podcast, Let's Go.

618
00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 4: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

619
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 4: know your team better than anyone and give you the

620
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 4: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

621
00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:14,440
Speaker 4: Locked on your favorite team.

622
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623
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:24,280
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on here to the aa CU.

624
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 3: I already mentioned Tulsa. I think it's a bad spot

625
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 3: for mentioned from Memphis. I'm back on Tulsa again. Memphis

626
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,639
Speaker 3: looks so great lest you're but potential flat spot. I

627
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:36,000
Speaker 3: love this Tulsa defense. They're competing every week. They're just sloppy,

628
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 3: you know, turnovers and penalties. This is kind of a

629
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:42,359
Speaker 3: last ditch effort for Tulsa's season. I think Memphis wins,

630
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,400
Speaker 3: but I think the line is a tad too high.

631
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:46,360
Speaker 5: Do you see anything there?

632
00:27:46,720 --> 00:27:48,360
Speaker 2: Yeah? I agree. I think the numbers is a little

633
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:49,600
Speaker 2: bit too high. I have it at nine and a

634
00:27:49,640 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 2: half and you have to look at tall I mean

635
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 2: just from a from a you know, ten mile view

636
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:57,640
Speaker 2: from up in the air. Tulsa played really well against

637
00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 2: teams that we're trying to pass and have it blos

638
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:02,359
Speaker 2: to play. So if you look at passing teams like

639
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 2: SMU Cincinnati trying to pass the ball, they covered those

640
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 2: games they should, Oklahoma should. Two turnovers were a part

641
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:12,640
Speaker 2: of that. But if you look at teams that are

642
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:14,359
Speaker 2: like trying to do ground and pound or just trying

643
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 2: to you know, make it a grind, like Navy, like Wyom,

644
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, like Navy at Tulsa absolutely got blown out.

645
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 2: So this is one of those things where Memphis is

646
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:24,399
Speaker 2: playing a team where it kind of fits what they

647
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:26,880
Speaker 2: want to do with their three three five defense. Tulsa's

648
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 2: eleventh and defensive passing success rate that should come in

649
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 2: handy against Memphis. Memphis is a very good at stringing

650
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,520
Speaker 2: drives together anyways, they're boom or bust on their offense.

651
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 2: But Tulsa is one hundred and twenty first against pass

652
00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 2: exposiveness and that really worries me because Memphis ranked sixth

653
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 2: and hitting bombs on on on passing plays, you know,

654
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 2: other than that. One thing scares me about Tulsa. I

655
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 2: don't think this number is going to dip below ten,

656
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 2: so I'm comfortable with waiting on it for a while.

657
00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:54,719
Speaker 2: Is that Tulsa's one hundred and thirtieth in penalties, you know, So,

658
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 2: I mean I started thinking about this and this isn't

659
00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 2: a joke. Like if you're the coach, if you're Philip

660
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 2: Montgomery from Tulsa and you realize that Memphis is one

661
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 2: of the worst teams in the red zone and the

662
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 2: only way that they can score is from explosive plays.

663
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 2: An interesting game plan, but the shorter the field gets,

664
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 2: the harder it is for Memphis to score. So something

665
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 2: definitely to watch for. Tulsa's top twenty five and rush explosive.

666
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 2: This surprisingly, Memphis d is seventieth, so Tulsa may be

667
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 2: able to extend the clock get some big runs going on.

668
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 2: It's a way for them to hang around in the game.

669
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 2: One stat you can bet on this however you want.

670
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 2: I'm not sure what you want to do with this.

671
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 2: Tulsa has scored seventy two points in the second quarter

672
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 2: of this season. They've scored eighty one points and the

673
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 2: other three quarters in overtime. That is one of the

674
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 2: most amazing stats I've ever seen. So what does that

675
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:40,920
Speaker 2: tell you. At the end of the first quarter, you

676
00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 2: may want to bet Tulsa and at the end of

677
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 2: at halftime, you may want to get out and bet Memphis.

678
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 5: That's wild, all right.

679
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 3: Another game in the AAC which will go a long way.

680
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 3: This pretty it's an elimination game. Toulane and Navy as

681
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 3: far as the West is concerned. Tulane, you know, I

682
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 3: think both of them still have that stem you left

683
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 3: on their schedule to Lane. Now, as you lost to

684
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 3: Memphis last week, I think I'm going to disagree with

685
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:02,520
Speaker 3: you on this game. I think I'm going back to

686
00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 3: Tulane and the cap here is pretty easy. It's just

687
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 3: one of the same reasons that I bet them against Army. Now,

688
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 3: you noticed that I mentioned Army, so they already played

689
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 3: an option team. This team plays a you know, it's

690
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 3: a different zone blocking scheme of an option attack, but

691
00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 3: there's some of the same principles and their coach is

692
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 3: very familiar. Fritz is very familiar with the option.

693
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:23,160
Speaker 5: You know.

694
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:27,479
Speaker 3: He at Blinn College, Central Missouri, sam Houston State, Georgia Southern.

695
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 5: He employed the option at all of those schools as

696
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:31,480
Speaker 5: a coach.

697
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:33,800
Speaker 3: So they're very familiar with it and they pretty much

698
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 3: shut down Army as well as you can. They ended

699
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 3: Army's long home winning streak in that game. You know,

700
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 3: they played Navy last year. Navy couldn't move the ball.

701
00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 5: In the ground.

702
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,959
Speaker 3: Last year they had one hundred and seventeen rushing yards.

703
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 3: Two years ago they only gave up one hundred and

704
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 3: ninety four rushing yards in Annapolis. So I think this

705
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 3: two lane team knows how to defend the option, which

706
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 3: is so big. The familiarity, you know, the gap integrity

707
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 3: they have, and you know they have their explosive plays

708
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 3: in the outside.

709
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 5: The Navy defense is for real.

710
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 3: But I think Tulane can do enough to stop Navy's defense,

711
00:31:08,440 --> 00:31:10,920
Speaker 3: Navy's triple option, and you know they're passing, They're trying

712
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 3: to pass.

713
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 5: A little more.

714
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 3: It has been working out lately for Malcolm Perry. He

715
00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 3: threw three passes last week against South Florida. Two of

716
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 3: them were picked, went oh three with two picks. So

717
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:22,360
Speaker 3: I think two lan's defense can shine here and they

718
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 3: bounce back. So I like them catching over a field

719
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 3: goal because of the matchup with their defense. You disagree here.

720
00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 2: I love both these teams. I mean we both love

721
00:31:30,680 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 2: TWU Lane and Navy a ton and I make this

722
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 2: Navy minus four and a half. If I'm going to

723
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 2: back Navy, though, I would want it to be three

724
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 2: or under or maybe take a money line. Because you're right,

725
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 2: Till Tulane is extremely familiar with what Navy wants to do.

726
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:43,920
Speaker 2: Saw it last year, experience with it this year. Fritz

727
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:47,960
Speaker 2: knows this, But I mean Navy's just unconscious this year.

728
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 2: When you're trying to handicap Navy, you go straight to

729
00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 2: two lane's defensive trench. TWU Lane is sixtieth in lineyard

730
00:31:54,000 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 2: seventy third, opportunity rates seventy fifth and stuff rate. That

731
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 2: means Navy is going to be able to move the

732
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 2: ball when they want to run the ball. Two lanes

733
00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 2: ninety fourth and defensive rushing success rate their top thirty

734
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 2: in defending rush explosiveness, but seventieth an opponent third down conversions.

735
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 2: That mean Navy's going to be able to get third

736
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 2: down conversions. They're going to have rushing success rate, They're

737
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:14,400
Speaker 2: going to be able to convert third and fours, second

738
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,239
Speaker 2: and sevens. Things like that it's not good to go

739
00:32:17,240 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 2: against Navy, whose first in red zone touchdown scoring. That's

740
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 2: one of the most amazing stats to me, is like Navy,

741
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:25,320
Speaker 2: every time they get it into the red zone, it's

742
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 2: always a TD. If they don't settle for field goals,

743
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 2: it doesn't matter. I mean, they may go forward on

744
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,680
Speaker 2: fourth down. I don't even think that they have attempted

745
00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 2: to kick in the in the red zone. I have

746
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 2: to go look at that. But they are number one

747
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 2: of the nation and TD scoring and too. Lanes should

748
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 2: have explosive rushing plays when success plays come on the ground,

749
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 2: but how often is that going to happen? Because Navy's

750
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 2: d is third an opponent rushing success rate, their ninth

751
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 2: in line yards. The defense has just been tremendous this year.

752
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 2: I mean, just a complete switch from what we had

753
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 2: last year. You know. But two Lane's good. You know,

754
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 2: they're sixteenth that have it allowed, so they're not going

755
00:32:58,360 --> 00:32:59,800
Speaker 2: to beat themselves. Two Lanes is going to be in

756
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:01,400
Speaker 2: this all the way to the finish. If you're get

757
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 2: a bet Navy, look for three or taking money line

758
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:06,640
Speaker 2: if you do, make it a low investment because I

759
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 2: love Tulane and Stuck's right, they really do know Navy.

760
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 2: But I make the line four and a half and

761
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 2: probably in some way I'm going to be betting both

762
00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 2: sides of this live yep.

763
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 3: And then speaking of two other option teams, I just

764
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,479
Speaker 3: want to throw this quickly out there. Army almost an

765
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 3: auto fade for me. They were last week again if

766
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 3: you look back since, and the numbers are even worse

767
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 3: if you look back further than this.

768
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 5: But if you look back in our bet Labs debt database.

769
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 3: And you can look back at all kinds of against

770
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 3: the spread trends with filters, and you just filter against

771
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 3: the spread records by fit for favorites.

772
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 5: Florida State is sixty one seventy four and three.

773
00:33:36,600 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 3: They're the second worst team in the nation with a

774
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 3: negative twelve percent ROI in the last fifteen years. The

775
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 3: worst is Army twenty one thirty seven and two negative

776
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:49,360
Speaker 3: twenty nine point four percent ROI. The triple option is

777
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 3: meant to compensate for a lack of talent and you know,

778
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 3: high level recruits. It works for keeping them close against

779
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:02,560
Speaker 3: these elite teams, but against worst teams it's not really

780
00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 3: as effective. San Jose State has major events last year

781
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 3: that it was fifty two to three. They saw the

782
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 3: option last year. You know, their strength on their team

783
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:12,800
Speaker 3: is their linebackers. They have a couple of safeties that

784
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 3: aren't great against the pass, but are you know, more

785
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:19,480
Speaker 3: linebacker types. So I like San Jose State here. And

786
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:22,879
Speaker 3: additionally New Mexico State. God, I can't believe I'm betting

787
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 3: them again, but a triple option even Georgia Southern laying

788
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 3: over two touchdowns and their offense has been a disaster this,

789
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 3: I mean, their offensive line is bad. It is going

790
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:35,560
Speaker 3: to be so hard from the cover fourteen and a half.

791
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 3: New Mexico State off of by you know, while Georgia

792
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 3: Southern last week. You know, and you might look at

793
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 3: this score last week and say, oh, Georgia Southern that

794
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 3: maybe their offense got it together. No, they scored thirty

795
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:49,320
Speaker 3: points because it went three overtimes. It was ten to

796
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 3: ten against Coastal Carolina after regulation, So they're coming off

797
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 3: a three overtime game. Well, New Mexico State is coming

798
00:34:56,800 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 3: off of by seeking their first win. You know, I

799
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:01,359
Speaker 3: think you get And Georgia Southern also has app State

800
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:03,920
Speaker 3: on deck. So it's just a terrible spot for Georgia Southern.

801
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 2: That's an early game the Halloween night, so it's early

802
00:35:06,719 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 2: in the week.

803
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 5: Yep, Thursday night.

804
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:12,400
Speaker 3: So I like New Mexico State here plus fourteen and

805
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 3: a half. I'm going to put that right in them

806
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:16,800
Speaker 3: the app right now. All right, let's move on here.

807
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,399
Speaker 3: And I can't believe I'm betting New Mexico State again.

808
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet you mess live here. I think I

809
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:23,359
Speaker 2: might do it in the middle of the pod. Wet

810
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:24,840
Speaker 2: see if we can get some beeps coming out of

811
00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:25,240
Speaker 2: my phone.

812
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:25,880
Speaker 5: Beautiful.

813
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 3: All right, let's talk Big twelve quickly. Oklahoma Kansas State noonkick,

814
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 3: Oklahoma another noonkick. I played the under here. You know,

815
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:34,279
Speaker 3: Kansas State one of the slowest teams in the nation.

816
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 3: They're going to try and play keep away. Oklahoma should

817
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 3: have some success running it, but dey, Oklahoma defense is

818
00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:43,000
Speaker 3: so vastly improved. Kansas State's really going to struggle offensively,

819
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:45,400
Speaker 3: you know. So I took under fifty seven and a

820
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:47,359
Speaker 3: half the game. I want to talk about the two games.

821
00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 3: I want to talk about Texas Tech and Kansas. I mean,

822
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 3: Kansas has an offense.

823
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:50,279
Speaker 5: Now.

824
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 3: The new offensive coordinator comes from a program where he

825
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 3: just wants to fly and score, and you know, the

826
00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 3: last week against Texas it was amazing. And Texas Tech

827
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 3: also just wants to go fast. It's why one of

828
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 3: the reasons why this total has jumped from fifty eight

829
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 3: and a half to sixty five. Texas text sitting at

830
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 3: a four point favorite at Lawrence. Does Kansas keep it

831
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:12,360
Speaker 3: going from last week or do they have.

832
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:13,320
Speaker 5: A little bit of a letdown.

833
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:15,759
Speaker 2: I absolutely think it's for real. I don't think there

834
00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 2: is a letdown. You can't really have a letdown. I

835
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,359
Speaker 2: think when you're Kansas and the program is where it is,

836
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 2: that was an amazing offensive performance that they put on

837
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 2: against Texas. I know Texas is beat up. I know

838
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 2: we're going to get Texas TCU here in a little bit.

839
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 2: And you can say anything that you want that's nasty

840
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:33,080
Speaker 2: about the Texas events, and it's all going to be true.

841
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 2: But the play calling absolutely suited to show how great

842
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 2: Puka Williams is. I think the over on this game

843
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 2: came out at sixty. That number originated with Circus Sports,

844
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 2: and I don't think it was adjusted that much for

845
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:50,759
Speaker 2: what Kansas's new play calling is and for what their

846
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 2: new speed is.

847
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:54,359
Speaker 3: So that's the reason the close seeds in the nation

848
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 3: with their old Ophins coordinator.

849
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 2: Right absolutely, and now it's things have changed a little bit,

850
00:36:59,560 --> 00:37:01,880
Speaker 2: so you know, it's still up to sixty four to

851
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 2: sixty five and a half. It's hard to put in

852
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 2: like a new gauge about where Kansas total should be.

853
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 2: All we know is is they're going a lot faster

854
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 2: and they're having a ton more success. So I would

855
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:15,800
Speaker 2: say sixty four is not good compared to the sixty

856
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:17,560
Speaker 2: that you know is there at the beginning of the week.

857
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:19,000
Speaker 2: But at the same time, I don't know where the

858
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 2: unders should you know where we should stop and start

859
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:22,160
Speaker 2: thinking about an under in this game?

860
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:24,759
Speaker 5: Yep, all right.

861
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 3: And then in regards to Texas tc Texas to one

862
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 3: one and a half point favorite over under down to

863
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 3: fifty seven. They're in Fort Worth TCU, but an odd

864
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 3: team to figure out this week. They're coming off two

865
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 3: straight losses on the road at Iowa State that got

866
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 3: blitzed and then at Kansas State last week they lost

867
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:46,440
Speaker 3: by seven. Before that, they beat Kansas by thirty seven,

868
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 3: and they barely lost to SMU in a game they

869
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 3: could have won. And they also went to Purdue and

870
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:53,239
Speaker 3: rolled Perdue and Purdue was healthier. You know, the more

871
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 3: I look at this game, I'm gonna I think I'm

872
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:57,240
Speaker 3: going to disagree with you. I'm starting to like TCU

873
00:37:57,680 --> 00:37:59,279
Speaker 3: and it's a team I don't like the bet And

874
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:01,879
Speaker 3: the reason is is this Texas team. Just the more

875
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:03,920
Speaker 3: I look at it, it's a mess. It's a disaster.

876
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:06,440
Speaker 3: They should have lost to Kansas if not for a

877
00:38:06,480 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 3: couple of late plays in a last second field goal.

878
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 3: And then I go back to Oklahoma game. They should

879
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 3: have lost that game by thirty and a lot of

880
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:14,760
Speaker 3: it's not their fault, their defensive injuries. I think TCU's

881
00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 3: gonna have a ton of success running the ball. They're

882
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 3: gonna hit some plays in the passing as everyone does

883
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 3: against Texas.

884
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 5: And then you go.

885
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:22,279
Speaker 3: The thing that's putting me over the edge is the

886
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 3: West Virginia game too. West Virginia, you know who threw

887
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:28,839
Speaker 3: four picks out gaining Texas four sixty three to four

888
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:31,760
Speaker 3: to twenty seven, six point seven yards per play. Texas

889
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 3: only had five point two. So I mean, this Texas team,

890
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 3: I just don't think it has been discounted enough because

891
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 3: they competed with Oklahoma in a you know, misleading final

892
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:44,720
Speaker 3: score because they pulled out the win against Kansas, because

893
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 3: they pulled out the win against West Virginia, but they

894
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:49,360
Speaker 3: easily could have lost by thirty to Oklahoma, could have

895
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 3: lost to West Virginia, and could have lost to Kansas

896
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 3: at home.

897
00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:54,879
Speaker 5: I'm not buying this Texas team any longer.

898
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 2: You can sell Texas defense down the river, all right.

899
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 2: I mean, Todd Orlando's probably going to get fired. Tom

900
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 2: Herman is having to make excuses for him. They're beat up,

901
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:05,480
Speaker 2: they've lost. I think I think they may be on

902
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:07,879
Speaker 2: their third string of everybody on the defense. So I'm

903
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:10,360
Speaker 2: not going to sit here and defend Texas in their defense.

904
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:12,880
Speaker 2: But what I will defend is Sam Ellinger and this

905
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 2: offense and the fact that they came so close against LSU.

906
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 2: The fact that they covered against OU, although I know

907
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 2: is kind of fraudish because of Jalen Hurts his red

908
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:24,399
Speaker 2: zone turnovers. But at the same time, this TCU team

909
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:25,880
Speaker 2: just lost to Kansas State as a four and a

910
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:28,560
Speaker 2: half point favorite. They lost twenty five to Iowa State.

911
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:32,400
Speaker 2: This is not LSU, this is not Oklahoma. TCU has

912
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:34,440
Speaker 2: covered just six of their last twenty five games in

913
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:36,800
Speaker 2: Fort worth. I know they get up for Texas, and

914
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 2: both teams have excellent offensive line numbers from a lineyards,

915
00:39:40,040 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 2: from a stuff rate perspective, but there's just a huge difference,

916
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:46,440
Speaker 2: you know, in defenses too. TCU's second in line yards,

917
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:48,920
Speaker 2: fourth and opportunity rate and Texas is sixty six then

918
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirteenth, one hundred and thirteenth and sack rate.

919
00:39:52,200 --> 00:39:54,440
Speaker 2: That's pretty bad. Texas can't get any pressure on anybody.

920
00:39:54,920 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 2: But the problem is, is the TCU offense going to

921
00:39:59,480 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 2: be able to keep up with the Sam Ellinger offense.

922
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 2: Let's just throw the defenses aside, because I don't think

923
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:08,360
Speaker 2: the TCU defense can keep up with Texas offense whatsoever.

924
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:11,839
Speaker 2: So the question becomes can the TCU offense score enough

925
00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 2: against the Texas defense? So, I mean, if you look

926
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 2: at TCU's defense, they're allowing twenty one passing plays of

927
00:40:16,960 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 2: twenty yards or more. They rank one hundred and twelfth

928
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 2: in defensive pass explosiveness despite having a really good success

929
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:26,360
Speaker 2: rate against passing. Texas's first and third down conversions percentage

930
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:28,840
Speaker 2: in the country, they're second and first downs in the country,

931
00:40:29,160 --> 00:40:32,320
Speaker 2: they're fourth, and red zone points per attempt TCU is

932
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty ninth and opponent red zone points

933
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 2: per attempt. Texas is going to score touchdowns every single

934
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 2: time they get past the forty yard line. I can't

935
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 2: say the TCU's offense is good enough to do the

936
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:46,240
Speaker 2: exact same thing. I mean, it may be Dicker the kicker,

937
00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:48,399
Speaker 2: but it doesn't matter. The point spread's one.

938
00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:49,040
Speaker 5: Now.

939
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:52,800
Speaker 2: From a numbers perspective, I can't make the case for

940
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 2: TCU's offense keeping up and winning this game. From a

941
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:59,319
Speaker 2: market perspective, I will tell you that my numbers don't

942
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:03,319
Speaker 2: mean anything because TCU is not getting a dime. They're

943
00:41:03,360 --> 00:41:05,080
Speaker 2: not getting tickets, they're not getting any of the big

944
00:41:05,120 --> 00:41:07,320
Speaker 2: money they're they're not no one's shown up at the

945
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:10,680
Speaker 2: counter by the way, Circuit Sports, who I completely respect.

946
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 2: They put up TCU minus two and a half and

947
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:16,359
Speaker 2: all that Longhorn money is what's pushed to Texas minus one.

948
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:19,839
Speaker 2: They still can't get any TCU money and stuck he's

949
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:21,839
Speaker 2: going to be on it. And I can understand if

950
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 2: you're a person that just plays on the market, you

951
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:26,440
Speaker 2: would want to play TCU in this matchup.

952
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:28,239
Speaker 3: Well, I mean tc always is going to give up

953
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:30,839
Speaker 3: explosive plays, but they're aggressive four to two five. That's

954
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:32,680
Speaker 3: been a problem in the past. You know, they want

955
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:35,360
Speaker 3: to create three and outs, create some turnovers. And I

956
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:37,200
Speaker 3: don't really take too much from that game last week

957
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 3: and that lost. They outgained Kansas State by one hundred yards.

958
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:43,399
Speaker 3: They averaged five point two yards per play, out Kansas

959
00:41:43,440 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 3: State to four point eight. Yeah, they helped Can't State

960
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:46,920
Speaker 3: to two hundred and sixty six yards. They add three

961
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:49,719
Speaker 3: hundred and sixty six. So kind of unlucky there. And

962
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 3: I just don't buy this Texas. To all these injuries

963
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 3: on Texas, They're not going to keep surviving. They should

964
00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:56,360
Speaker 3: have lost the Kansas at home, and they could have

965
00:41:56,400 --> 00:41:58,799
Speaker 3: easily lost to West Virginia if not for a bunch

966
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 3: of turnovers. I think I'm going to trust Patterson here.

967
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna say this for the uniforms of TCUs wearing.

968
00:42:03,719 --> 00:42:05,640
Speaker 2: They've got to win this game. You can't lose the game.

969
00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 2: And where that Toronto Raptor is looking outfit?

970
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 5: Yeah yeah?

971
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:11,839
Speaker 3: Elsewhere in the Big twelve yet b October continuing against

972
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:13,760
Speaker 3: Oklahoma State. They're a ten and a half point favorite,

973
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:15,680
Speaker 3: and I can't back Oklahoma State I just don't trust

974
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 3: Sanders after what I saw against the buy and you

975
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:20,920
Speaker 3: just have to kind of double Wallace and you know,

976
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 3: key in on Hubbard and you can pretty much shut

977
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:25,000
Speaker 3: down to Oklahoma State.

978
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 2: Spencer Sanders is taking things really hard to He's an

979
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 2: emotional kid that is taking his mistakes a little bit

980
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 2: too hard in the game, and then he just gets

981
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:36,719
Speaker 2: down on himself and he starts second guessing himself. And

982
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:38,840
Speaker 2: I'm gonna tell you, Oklahoma State is going to be

983
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:41,359
Speaker 2: one of the most talented teams in the nation next year.

984
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:43,600
Speaker 2: They have all the talent in the world. Their defense

985
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 2: is letting them down, and Sanders is just making, you know,

986
00:42:46,920 --> 00:42:50,440
Speaker 2: typical freshman mistakes and he's holding himself. He's holding himself

987
00:42:50,480 --> 00:42:51,960
Speaker 2: too hard against the fire when he makes.

988
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 3: Him all right, let's move on to the Big Ten

989
00:42:54,160 --> 00:42:55,239
Speaker 3: Indiana Nebraska.

990
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 5: It's the quarterback.

991
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 3: I don't know who's playing quarterback, Michael Poenix questionable. He

992
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:01,880
Speaker 3: does doesn't play. It's a huge drop off to you.

993
00:43:01,960 --> 00:43:03,360
Speaker 3: I mean, he's I think he leads the country in

994
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 3: adjusted completion percent. Their offense has been rolling with him.

995
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:08,360
Speaker 3: He got hurt last week and you know, they almost

996
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 3: lost to Maryland as a result, So keep an eye

997
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:12,280
Speaker 3: on that. And then on the other side with Nebraska,

998
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:13,719
Speaker 3: I don't know who's playing quarterback.

999
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:14,840
Speaker 5: I have no clue.

1000
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 3: Nobody knows. I'm trying to find out. We probably won't

1001
00:43:17,239 --> 00:43:20,279
Speaker 3: find out till game time. Adrian Martinez is questionable, No

1002
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 3: Vedril is questionable. Maybe you see Christian McCaffrey's brother. I

1003
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 3: don't know hard gin to cap. The UN's probably gonna

1004
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 3: flip all over based on quarterback speculation.

1005
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 5: I'll also mention that I.

1006
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 3: Played Northwestern plus ten and a half.

1007
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:36,360
Speaker 5: It's gross, but this's.

1008
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 3: Just too many points in a game that might be

1009
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:42,000
Speaker 3: seventy to three total is thirty seven and a half.

1010
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 3: I had to take it over ten. The Northwestern offense

1011
00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 3: is ugly, but their defense is really good. It's one

1012
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 3: of the best defenses in the country. Will I was

1013
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:53,040
Speaker 3: offense not explosive, now I will be without you know,

1014
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:57,160
Speaker 3: pretty much their only explosive player and leading receiver in

1015
00:43:57,280 --> 00:44:00,840
Speaker 3: Brandon Smith. He's out with an injury. So I'm trusting

1016
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:03,280
Speaker 3: in some voodoo here. It's a perfectvoodoo spot for Northwestern

1017
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:06,439
Speaker 3: at one to five against Iowa. But let's talk about

1018
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:09,280
Speaker 3: Penn State Michigan State. I was hoping this game CREEPD

1019
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 3: seven doesn't look like it's going to happen, So I

1020
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:13,120
Speaker 3: took six and a half. I'll add if it gets

1021
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:15,520
Speaker 3: back to seven. I mean, I don't know how much

1022
00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:20,160
Speaker 3: this is Michigan State's really experienced team off of a

1023
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:22,480
Speaker 3: bye with a you know, I think they have a

1024
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 3: buy on deck too. I mean, this is just pretty much,

1025
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:28,720
Speaker 3: you know, their super Bowl until Michigan in mid November.

1026
00:44:28,840 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 3: If this experienced team has anything, you're going to get

1027
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 3: it here against a young Penn State team that's played

1028
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 3: two straight games, emotional games that they really could have

1029
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:40,440
Speaker 3: easily lost at Iowa and then against Michigan. How much

1030
00:44:40,760 --> 00:44:42,680
Speaker 3: does Penn State have left? And the bye just did

1031
00:44:42,760 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 3: Michigan State so much good. They're getting healthier on the

1032
00:44:45,480 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 3: offensive line. This team was beat up. You know, they

1033
00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 3: played you know, Ohio State in Wisconsin and back to

1034
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 3: back games. Their run defense is still elite. Their defense

1035
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 3: if you look at first and first and second down

1036
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:59,479
Speaker 3: success rates still elite. I trust LAWORKI here, I trust

1037
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 3: Michigan State. I think they went out right. Penn State

1038
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:06,320
Speaker 3: again just overinflated in the market because of their results

1039
00:45:06,880 --> 00:45:09,400
Speaker 3: in the final score not in the box score. I

1040
00:45:09,520 --> 00:45:12,240
Speaker 3: think the Penn State undefeated party ends here in East Lantic.

1041
00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:14,880
Speaker 2: Do you agree? Yeah, I absolutely agree. I took Michigan

1042
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:16,440
Speaker 2: State same as you, six and a half and I

1043
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 2: took a real juice seven out there. But you know,

1044
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:21,879
Speaker 2: you don't want to put something that juiced on the app.

1045
00:45:21,920 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 2: But I did take a six and a half two,

1046
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:25,560
Speaker 2: so it kind of doubled up on this game. But

1047
00:45:25,640 --> 00:45:27,279
Speaker 2: you're right about Penn State. I mean it's a flat

1048
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:30,840
Speaker 2: spot primetime ranked games against Iowa and Michigan. You know

1049
00:45:30,920 --> 00:45:33,360
Speaker 2: in Penn State needed an explosive play to beat to

1050
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:35,680
Speaker 2: beat Michigan, they ended that game with a seventy two

1051
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:40,000
Speaker 2: per postgame win expectancy. I mean, Michigan had every chance

1052
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 2: to tie that ball game up. Here's the deal. If

1053
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,799
Speaker 2: you believe in Brian Lawurki stuck does I do? I've

1054
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 2: seen him. The kids got a bazooka for an arm.

1055
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:51,320
Speaker 2: If you believe in him and he can hit his targets,

1056
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 2: Penn State's defense is seventy six to eightieth and defending

1057
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 2: rush and past explosiveness, they can be hit on the

1058
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:01,760
Speaker 2: big play. And that comes down to Brian Lawurky hitting

1059
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:04,200
Speaker 2: his guys deep. D Antonio has won five in the

1060
00:46:04,239 --> 00:46:06,320
Speaker 2: last six against Penn State. You can say that he

1061
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 2: kind of owns James Franklin. We praise Penn State's defense.

1062
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 2: There's nothing bad to say about them, but they're sixty

1063
00:46:11,560 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 2: fifth in havoc allowed on offense and Michigan State can

1064
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:16,320
Speaker 2: expose that, and you know, I think this is a

1065
00:46:16,400 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 2: great spot for Penn State's offense to get exposed a

1066
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 2: little bit. Michigan State's kind of defense that can pull

1067
00:46:21,800 --> 00:46:23,520
Speaker 2: it off, and so I think we're going to see

1068
00:46:23,520 --> 00:46:25,239
Speaker 2: an upset here outright. And definitely, if you're going to

1069
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:27,279
Speaker 2: make your round robin parlay cards, it's going to have

1070
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 2: Sparty in it for me.

1071
00:46:28,680 --> 00:46:29,240
Speaker 5: Yep, agreed.

1072
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 3: Anything on Maryland Minnesota that I think that it looks

1073
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:34,240
Speaker 3: like there's a lot of injury questions with Maryland.

1074
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:35,880
Speaker 5: It does look like McFarland will go. I don't know

1075
00:46:35,920 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 5: who's going to play quarterback anything there.

1076
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,600
Speaker 2: I lean Minnesota, but you know, nothing big here. I

1077
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:43,240
Speaker 2: just think that there's you know, both quarterback Josh Jackson

1078
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:45,760
Speaker 2: running back Anthony McFarland are expected to play for Maryland.

1079
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:47,839
Speaker 2: That's a boost for them, But I mean, really when

1080
00:46:47,880 --> 00:46:50,320
Speaker 2: it comes down to Minnesota's top twenty and passing success

1081
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:53,720
Speaker 2: rate and explosiveness, and you know Maryland's d is outside

1082
00:46:53,760 --> 00:46:56,560
Speaker 2: Todd the top seventy in both those categories. So I'm

1083
00:46:56,600 --> 00:46:58,120
Speaker 2: not sure. I just want to swallow the points. But

1084
00:46:58,440 --> 00:46:59,760
Speaker 2: it's definitely a spot for the Gophers.

1085
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 3: Liberty Rutgers Liberty there all their games go under by

1086
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 3: about one hundred points somehow, I think they're averaging. Their

1087
00:47:06,160 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 3: totals are going under by like three touchdowns a game.

1088
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 3: It's pretty crazy for a Liberty. Rutgers has set historic

1089
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:19,920
Speaker 3: records for just absolute future quarterback play over the last

1090
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:21,799
Speaker 3: couple of games. Liberty is a seven and a half

1091
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:24,359
Speaker 3: point favorite at Rutgers over under forty five.

1092
00:47:24,680 --> 00:47:25,520
Speaker 5: Are you betting that game?

1093
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:28,720
Speaker 2: Listen, if guy knew Cole Snyder was playing for Rutgers,

1094
00:47:28,719 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 2: I would definitely lay the money in on the seven

1095
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:32,439
Speaker 2: half is if we get word that he is playing

1096
00:47:32,480 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 2: and he's starting, then yeah, it's worth the play because

1097
00:47:35,080 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 2: that quarterback he can actually do something for Rutgers. But

1098
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:39,360
Speaker 2: other than that, we're talking about a team that scored

1099
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:42,359
Speaker 2: fourteen points in their last four games. That's a little tough.

1100
00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:44,880
Speaker 2: So Cole Snyder's got three games left to burn with

1101
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:47,600
Speaker 2: his red shirt. Rutgers has every intentions of red shirt

1102
00:47:47,640 --> 00:47:49,120
Speaker 2: and Cole snyders, so he's got three games left to go.

1103
00:47:49,160 --> 00:47:51,480
Speaker 2: If you look at Rutgers schedule, Ohio State, Michigan State,

1104
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 2: Penn State, Shirley Snyder plays in this game because they

1105
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:56,279
Speaker 2: don't want to throw them to the wolves against the

1106
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:58,319
Speaker 2: big boys of the Big Ten. So if I get

1107
00:47:58,360 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 2: word the Cole Snyder is playing, I'm playing Rutgers.

1108
00:48:01,520 --> 00:48:02,399
Speaker 5: Good intel there.

1109
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:04,720
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to Conference USA quickly.

1110
00:48:05,520 --> 00:48:06,799
Speaker 5: I'm against you one game here.

1111
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:08,920
Speaker 3: You gotta bad You usually get good numbers. You got

1112
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:11,920
Speaker 3: a bad number year, right, Southern Miss. I took Rice

1113
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 3: plus ten and a half. It's, you know, an awful

1114
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:18,040
Speaker 3: spot for Southern Miss. They're coming off that loss, which

1115
00:48:18,719 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 3: a big lot. It's a law Attech. They threw four picks.

1116
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:22,920
Speaker 3: They really could have won the game. I mean, this

1117
00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:26,239
Speaker 3: team has had a brutal schedule too. Luckily they have

1118
00:48:26,280 --> 00:48:27,880
Speaker 3: a buy next week, but before they buy, they go

1119
00:48:27,960 --> 00:48:31,960
Speaker 3: to winless Rice. I'm buying Rice low here. You know,

1120
00:48:32,080 --> 00:48:36,280
Speaker 3: they're o and seven on the year, but they're still fighting,

1121
00:48:37,080 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 3: and you know they you know, they lost to Baylor

1122
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:44,360
Speaker 3: by eight. They lost a La Tech by three in overtime.

1123
00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:47,239
Speaker 3: So there's some things that I've liked about Rice. And

1124
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:50,160
Speaker 3: then more more importantly with Southern Miss, you know they're

1125
00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:51,800
Speaker 3: gonna be without one of the most important players, and

1126
00:48:51,840 --> 00:48:54,160
Speaker 3: to Michael Harris who took over for running back because

1127
00:48:54,520 --> 00:48:57,920
Speaker 3: Travinsky Mosley was out, so they're undermanned on offense as well.

1128
00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 3: I just think it's a super flat spot for Southern myss.

1129
00:49:01,160 --> 00:49:02,920
Speaker 3: So I'm on Rice and it sucks, but.

1130
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:06,320
Speaker 2: You're right though, it is a really bad spot. And

1131
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:09,200
Speaker 2: people have been tweeting me asking me like, why did

1132
00:49:09,320 --> 00:49:10,920
Speaker 2: we take Southern Miss and then move the other way.

1133
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:13,239
Speaker 2: There's not many times that I get a bad number,

1134
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:16,279
Speaker 2: and the reason is because on open Southern Miss opened

1135
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:19,280
Speaker 2: up at eleven. I have this number projected at fourteen,

1136
00:49:19,840 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 2: and immediately I knew that Southern Miss was, you know,

1137
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:25,880
Speaker 2: eleventh in the nation and passing explosiveness and Rice is

1138
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:28,960
Speaker 2: ninety seventh. And defending that Southern Miss is fifteenth and

1139
00:49:29,000 --> 00:49:31,520
Speaker 2: passing success rate, Rice is one hundred and twenty first,

1140
00:49:31,560 --> 00:49:34,320
Speaker 2: and defending that, you know that Rice is going to

1141
00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:37,440
Speaker 2: have problems defending the Southern Miss pass game. But the

1142
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 2: spot screams rice, So yeah, got a bad number. It's

1143
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:43,360
Speaker 2: coming down. It's going the other way, even though I

1144
00:49:43,440 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 2: projected at fourteen. So I'm just gonna say with my

1145
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:46,600
Speaker 2: eleven and we'll see what happens.

1146
00:49:46,880 --> 00:49:47,040
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1147
00:49:47,040 --> 00:49:49,600
Speaker 3: The other game of vote in Conference USA is Western

1148
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:52,760
Speaker 3: Kentucky at Marshall, which is important for the conference standings.

1149
00:49:52,800 --> 00:49:56,920
Speaker 3: Western Kentucky surprising five and two after an opening loss

1150
00:49:57,080 --> 00:49:59,960
Speaker 3: to Central Arkansas at home. They are five point underdog.

1151
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:02,080
Speaker 3: Is that Marshall over under forty five?

1152
00:50:02,120 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 5: What do you see here? Yeah?

1153
00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:05,520
Speaker 2: I love Marshall. On the spot, it's homecoming for them.

1154
00:50:05,760 --> 00:50:08,440
Speaker 2: There's a huge announcement coming after the first quarter. They said, it's,

1155
00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:12,080
Speaker 2: you know, program shaking announcement coming on the field after

1156
00:50:12,120 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 2: the first quarter. But this is good on good. This

1157
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 2: is Marshall's rush versus the Western Kentucky rush defense. We

1158
00:50:17,239 --> 00:50:19,239
Speaker 2: love Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers have made us some money

1159
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:21,920
Speaker 2: this year. The herd or twelfth in rushing yards per attempt,

1160
00:50:22,080 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 2: they're sixteenth in line yards and the Western Kentucky d

1161
00:50:24,640 --> 00:50:27,320
Speaker 2: is fourteenth in opponent rushing yards. So really that's the

1162
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:29,720
Speaker 2: big battle to watch out for here. But Western Kentucky

1163
00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:32,480
Speaker 2: has problems generating points. That's a huge issue for them.

1164
00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:35,120
Speaker 2: They average twenty two point three per game and Marshall

1165
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:37,439
Speaker 2: doesn't throw very often, but when they do, they rank

1166
00:50:37,480 --> 00:50:40,160
Speaker 2: in the top twenty in passing explosiveness, so they're not

1167
00:50:40,239 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 2: very good at passing success rate. They're only successful in

1168
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:45,560
Speaker 2: rank one hundred and twelfth, but when they do it's

1169
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:47,920
Speaker 2: actually a really big pass and Western Kentucky is one

1170
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:51,200
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty eighth and opponent passing explosiveness, so Marshall

1171
00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:52,959
Speaker 2: won't go to the air. They only have two hundred

1172
00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:55,680
Speaker 2: and eleven attempts on the season and throwing, but when

1173
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:58,160
Speaker 2: they are successful, it's going to be big plays. Marshall

1174
00:50:58,200 --> 00:51:00,759
Speaker 2: recently because of wide receiver depth into a three tight

1175
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:02,520
Speaker 2: end set, and if you go and look at some

1176
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:05,640
Speaker 2: of their game film, they are just messing with defensive

1177
00:51:05,640 --> 00:51:07,920
Speaker 2: coordinator's minds. They are running the ball out of the

1178
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:09,920
Speaker 2: three tight set, they're passing the ball out of the

1179
00:51:09,920 --> 00:51:12,919
Speaker 2: three tight set. The prestat motion is a mess. Doc Holly,

1180
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:14,480
Speaker 2: you and I had a text log about how we

1181
00:51:14,520 --> 00:51:17,080
Speaker 2: think he's a conservative coach, but he is doing things

1182
00:51:17,120 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 2: with a three tight end set that is confusing defense

1183
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 2: is big time. Love Marshall on the spot.

1184
00:51:21,360 --> 00:51:25,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, Marshall's offensive line is also really excellent, so it

1185
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:28,919
Speaker 3: can match up. They're gonna put Western Kentucky into pass situations.

1186
00:51:29,400 --> 00:51:31,920
Speaker 3: Western Kentucky is not gonna have success and Thundering Her

1187
00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:34,960
Speaker 3: can get after the quarterback. I think they have fifteen

1188
00:51:35,239 --> 00:51:38,839
Speaker 3: sacks in the last two games if I remember reading

1189
00:51:38,880 --> 00:51:41,120
Speaker 3: that right, So you know they can get after the

1190
00:51:41,200 --> 00:51:43,239
Speaker 3: quarterback and Western Kentucky yet they're just going to have

1191
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:47,439
Speaker 3: a really, really tough time scoring here. All right, let's

1192
00:51:47,520 --> 00:51:52,280
Speaker 3: move on to the Independence because everyone has been waiting.

1193
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:54,880
Speaker 5: What's that smell?

1194
00:51:55,480 --> 00:52:01,760
Speaker 3: It stinks the trash, the sweet sweet treh. The trash

1195
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:05,680
Speaker 3: is a gold mine, old mine, the Independence because everyone

1196
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:09,920
Speaker 3: has been waiting for this moment all week and it's

1197
00:52:10,000 --> 00:52:13,279
Speaker 3: for you to explain the toilet bowl. U Mass is

1198
00:52:13,320 --> 00:52:15,920
Speaker 3: the new Yukon and Yukon is still the new Yukon.

1199
00:52:16,040 --> 00:52:21,440
Speaker 3: So is this really Yukon verse Yukon, But Yukon against

1200
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:24,040
Speaker 3: U Mass. Yukon's a ten point favorite at U Mass.

1201
00:52:24,080 --> 00:52:26,440
Speaker 3: That's how bad U Mess is over under sixty two.

1202
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:29,439
Speaker 3: I don't even know where to start with this game.

1203
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:31,759
Speaker 3: And U Mess is on my do not bet list.

1204
00:52:31,880 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 3: I will not be betting this game. I will not

1205
00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:34,879
Speaker 3: lay ten on the road with Yukon.

1206
00:52:34,880 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 5: I'll tell you that. So this is a complete stay

1207
00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 5: away from me. Go ahead and make your games.

1208
00:52:38,120 --> 00:52:40,040
Speaker 2: You jumped on me in the company slack, You're like,

1209
00:52:40,120 --> 00:52:41,680
Speaker 2: come on, man, you can't bet on this team.

1210
00:52:41,760 --> 00:52:46,840
Speaker 5: So being out for I will come down to like

1211
00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:48,439
Speaker 5: who vomits less.

1212
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:54,000
Speaker 2: So this is an old Yankee Conference rivalry here and

1213
00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:56,040
Speaker 2: I project the game to be Yukon minus seven and

1214
00:52:56,040 --> 00:52:57,719
Speaker 2: a half on the road. So there is value in

1215
00:52:57,760 --> 00:52:59,600
Speaker 2: the number. I know more so at the ten and

1216
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:02,640
Speaker 2: a half in the ten. But yes, Yukon lost linebacker

1217
00:53:02,760 --> 00:53:06,200
Speaker 2: DJ Morgan. He's responsible for thirty six tackles, two sacks,

1218
00:53:06,239 --> 00:53:10,600
Speaker 2: two passes, defense to fumble recoveries. He was the signal caller.

1219
00:53:10,760 --> 00:53:12,480
Speaker 2: He's the one that huddled him all up. He was

1220
00:53:12,560 --> 00:53:15,160
Speaker 2: kind of the leader, the inside linebacker for the Yukon defense.

1221
00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 2: He's out in this game. You have to remember Yukon

1222
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:19,520
Speaker 2: did cover against Houston last week, but that was against

1223
00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:22,800
Speaker 2: Dataholders and Sun playing quarterback. Both teams should have some

1224
00:53:22,920 --> 00:53:27,640
Speaker 2: success and explosive runs. But you know Andrew Brido Randall West.

1225
00:53:27,719 --> 00:53:30,080
Speaker 2: These are some of the best players for the UMass minimen.

1226
00:53:30,160 --> 00:53:32,360
Speaker 2: On the offense, they weren't healthy, they went into a

1227
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:34,799
Speaker 2: bye week, they got out of concussion protocol. They're ready

1228
00:53:34,800 --> 00:53:37,520
Speaker 2: to go for Yukon. I just think it's too many points. Listen,

1229
00:53:37,880 --> 00:53:40,120
Speaker 2: you come on, you Mass. I mean, Yukon can't be

1230
00:53:40,160 --> 00:53:42,839
Speaker 2: favored by ten on the road. So one more time,

1231
00:53:42,880 --> 00:53:44,279
Speaker 2: you Mass, one more time. We're gonna go to the

1232
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:45,640
Speaker 2: world one more time. See if we get some money

1233
00:53:45,640 --> 00:53:46,200
Speaker 2: out of you Mass.

1234
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:49,560
Speaker 3: Oh boy, dumpster diving. Colin goes, I'm dumpster diving a

1235
00:53:49,560 --> 00:53:52,040
Speaker 3: lot this New Mexico State. And Rice, I've don't have

1236
00:53:52,200 --> 00:53:53,440
Speaker 3: much for him to talk. All right, we'll we talk

1237
00:53:53,480 --> 00:53:55,839
Speaker 3: a much more about that on Saturday morning. Let's move

1238
00:53:55,880 --> 00:53:58,120
Speaker 3: on to the MAC, which has been as unpredictable as

1239
00:53:58,160 --> 00:54:01,080
Speaker 3: ever this year, an unpredictable offer. It somehow has become

1240
00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:04,400
Speaker 3: more unpredictable. Tons of quarterback questions across the board. You know,

1241
00:54:04,520 --> 00:54:08,240
Speaker 3: Central Michigan has their quarterbacks suspended and messed their Buffalo's

1242
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:10,319
Speaker 3: quarterbacks out for the year. They have Van Trees, who's

1243
00:54:10,760 --> 00:54:14,359
Speaker 3: was a PUNTERDS quarterback. Now Akrons quarterback is suspended. They're

1244
00:54:14,360 --> 00:54:16,400
Speaker 3: going with the true freshman again, Northern Hill noise going

1245
00:54:16,480 --> 00:54:19,640
Speaker 3: back to Bowers, Toledo and Gwadani might not play Glass.

1246
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:21,759
Speaker 3: Same thing with Eastern Michigan. Eastern Michigan hasn't wonted the

1247
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:25,320
Speaker 3: Glass Bowl since the nineties. Just a mess of a conference.

1248
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:28,320
Speaker 3: But let's talk about Ohio ball State, which could go

1249
00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:31,040
Speaker 3: could be a preview of the MAC Championship. Top two

1250
00:54:31,040 --> 00:54:33,400
Speaker 3: top seeds in both divisions. Here, ball State's two and

1251
00:54:33,440 --> 00:54:36,560
Speaker 3: a half point favorite at home. The Ohio defense has

1252
00:54:36,560 --> 00:54:38,919
Speaker 3: been scaring me. What they did against Kent State last week.

1253
00:54:38,960 --> 00:54:40,919
Speaker 3: Oh No one get a stop back game over under

1254
00:54:41,000 --> 00:54:43,279
Speaker 3: sixty one and a half. Ball State's been on a

1255
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:45,719
Speaker 3: little bit of a roll here. They rolled under man

1256
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:48,160
Speaker 3: Toledo team last week, which just isn't the same without Gwadani.

1257
00:54:48,239 --> 00:54:50,479
Speaker 3: And what do you see in Ohio ball State?

1258
00:54:50,880 --> 00:54:53,680
Speaker 2: Ohios defense has been pretty atrocious here. But I am

1259
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:55,640
Speaker 2: going to back to Bob's in this spot. I make

1260
00:54:55,719 --> 00:54:57,520
Speaker 2: the game a pick, so I think you know, ball

1261
00:54:57,600 --> 00:54:59,279
Speaker 2: State being favored by two and a half, it was

1262
00:54:59,320 --> 00:55:01,160
Speaker 2: three early when I took it. I think that's a

1263
00:55:01,200 --> 00:55:03,560
Speaker 2: little bit too much. Ball State's won three straight. They've

1264
00:55:03,600 --> 00:55:05,960
Speaker 2: covered four straight They've had a combined one thousand and

1265
00:55:06,000 --> 00:55:08,239
Speaker 2: thirty yards against Toledo in Eastern Michigan in the last

1266
00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:11,839
Speaker 2: two weeks. Drew Plitt is now sixteen touchdowns to six interceptions.

1267
00:55:12,160 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 2: Ball State is thirty first to pass explosiveness, And I

1268
00:55:14,719 --> 00:55:16,560
Speaker 2: think the question is, is the Ohio rushing attack, the

1269
00:55:16,640 --> 00:55:18,880
Speaker 2: old soulis rushing attack that seems to get him to

1270
00:55:18,880 --> 00:55:20,640
Speaker 2: the MAC Championship game that he can never win. Their

1271
00:55:20,640 --> 00:55:22,799
Speaker 2: twenty second in success rate as far as running the ball,

1272
00:55:23,040 --> 00:55:25,480
Speaker 2: and you know, Cardinals look like they are up to

1273
00:55:25,560 --> 00:55:27,239
Speaker 2: the task, but if you look at the lists of

1274
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:30,000
Speaker 2: the rushing attacks they've gone up against, we're not exactly

1275
00:55:30,040 --> 00:55:31,359
Speaker 2: sure they're going to be able to get it done.

1276
00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:34,560
Speaker 2: So Ball State's going to generate zero pressure on Nathan Rourke.

1277
00:55:34,719 --> 00:55:36,880
Speaker 2: And in the same token, Ohio is one hundred and

1278
00:55:36,920 --> 00:55:38,919
Speaker 2: twenty seventh in havoc, so nobody's going to be turning

1279
00:55:38,960 --> 00:55:41,000
Speaker 2: the ball over here. But I think the whole thing

1280
00:55:41,120 --> 00:55:43,120
Speaker 2: is if ball State can't get any pressure on Nathan Rourke,

1281
00:55:43,160 --> 00:55:45,000
Speaker 2: he's going to be able to do whatever he wants

1282
00:55:45,080 --> 00:55:47,279
Speaker 2: on the ground and through the air. So you know,

1283
00:55:48,040 --> 00:55:49,839
Speaker 2: you know, probably should play this game live. But at

1284
00:55:49,840 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 2: the same time. I think Ohio plus three at the

1285
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:53,439
Speaker 2: time when I bought it was good. If you don't

1286
00:55:53,480 --> 00:55:54,880
Speaker 2: aren't coverable with the two and a half, which I

1287
00:55:54,880 --> 00:55:56,840
Speaker 2: probably wouldn't be in this game, wait for it to

1288
00:55:56,840 --> 00:55:59,320
Speaker 2: clip three again or play this live because both offenses

1289
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:00,440
Speaker 2: cann be able to do with it I want to do.

1290
00:56:00,920 --> 00:56:03,520
Speaker 3: Let's move on to the Mountain West Conference. One thing

1291
00:56:03,600 --> 00:56:05,680
Speaker 3: I will say is keep an eye on the weather

1292
00:56:05,920 --> 00:56:09,359
Speaker 3: in Laramie. Could have wins, tons of wins. That twenty

1293
00:56:09,440 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 3: twenty five miles per hour. Will have stuff on that

1294
00:56:11,080 --> 00:56:13,640
Speaker 3: in the action app That really won't hurt Wyoming's offense.

1295
00:56:13,640 --> 00:56:16,319
Speaker 3: They can't throw, they just run the ball. But let's

1296
00:56:16,400 --> 00:56:19,359
Speaker 3: talk quickly Utah State air Force. What do you see

1297
00:56:19,680 --> 00:56:21,640
Speaker 3: their air force at three and a half point home

1298
00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:24,200
Speaker 3: favorite Some questions about quarterback health, but does it really

1299
00:56:24,239 --> 00:56:25,280
Speaker 3: matter with air Force.

1300
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:27,560
Speaker 2: Now because they use dual quarterbacks. I think they've got

1301
00:56:27,560 --> 00:56:29,000
Speaker 2: a third one they can use too, But I think

1302
00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:31,160
Speaker 2: the under is the play. Because Utah State is struggling

1303
00:56:31,200 --> 00:56:33,640
Speaker 2: and finishing drives. Utah State's one hundred and thirtieth in

1304
00:56:33,719 --> 00:56:36,000
Speaker 2: red zone TD scoring. They've been settling for a lot

1305
00:56:36,040 --> 00:56:37,879
Speaker 2: of field goals or they just haven't been scoring at all.

1306
00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:40,719
Speaker 2: And air Force field position. I think that's going to

1307
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:42,480
Speaker 2: help the under because it's always been an issue. There

1308
00:56:42,480 --> 00:56:44,279
Speaker 2: are one hundred and twenty ninth and punt return yards,

1309
00:56:44,360 --> 00:56:46,600
Speaker 2: there are one hundred and thirtieth and kickoff return yards.

1310
00:56:46,800 --> 00:56:49,239
Speaker 2: Air Force always has a long field to play with.

1311
00:56:49,600 --> 00:56:51,480
Speaker 2: And you know about their running attack, about their option

1312
00:56:51,600 --> 00:56:53,279
Speaker 2: attack on the ground. It's going to make it a

1313
00:56:53,560 --> 00:56:56,439
Speaker 2: very quick game, which means point to the under.

1314
00:56:56,840 --> 00:56:59,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, probably a little inflated, just because Utah State plays

1315
00:56:59,800 --> 00:57:02,839
Speaker 3: so far fast, one of the fastest teams in the nation.

1316
00:57:03,400 --> 00:57:05,720
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on here to the Pac twelve.

1317
00:57:07,280 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 3: You know, I played on the Apple I plate Stanford.

1318
00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:12,919
Speaker 3: I think either Costello or Mills and I'm hoping will

1319
00:57:12,960 --> 00:57:14,560
Speaker 3: play based on what I've been reading.

1320
00:57:14,640 --> 00:57:15,800
Speaker 5: That will be huge if they do.

1321
00:57:16,560 --> 00:57:18,200
Speaker 3: But I think it's a good spot for a desperate

1322
00:57:18,280 --> 00:57:20,600
Speaker 3: Stanford team against an Arizona team that's just a mess.

1323
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:22,800
Speaker 3: They can't get pressure, can't play defense. You know, you

1324
00:57:22,840 --> 00:57:24,520
Speaker 3: have Arizona State at four point favorite on the road

1325
00:57:24,560 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 3: at UCLA, Utah twenty one and a half point favorite

1326
00:57:27,800 --> 00:57:30,560
Speaker 3: with a total thirty six and a half against Calvin

1327
00:57:30,560 --> 00:57:34,840
Speaker 3: because obviously their defense is elite. They also play really slow.

1328
00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:38,640
Speaker 3: Col is down to their third quarterback, Monsters out. Garber's

1329
00:57:38,680 --> 00:57:38,960
Speaker 3: is out.

1330
00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:43,439
Speaker 2: Just a Utah truck, Yeah, absolute Utah Truck wrote about

1331
00:57:43,480 --> 00:57:45,080
Speaker 2: this and the Havoc Piece Lader in the week back

1332
00:57:45,080 --> 00:57:47,200
Speaker 2: when the line was eighteen. I still like it at

1333
00:57:47,320 --> 00:57:49,880
Speaker 2: twenty one, twenty one and a half. I mean, there's

1334
00:57:49,880 --> 00:57:51,280
Speaker 2: probably a better way to play this than that is

1335
00:57:51,360 --> 00:57:52,840
Speaker 2: taking the cow on the under. I mean they're on

1336
00:57:52,880 --> 00:57:55,640
Speaker 2: their third string quarterback. Spencer Brash is going to be

1337
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:57,880
Speaker 2: the freshman kid that gets in there. He's got six

1338
00:57:59,000 --> 00:58:01,360
Speaker 2: He's got six attempts lifetime. One of was an interception

1339
00:58:01,440 --> 00:58:04,320
Speaker 2: to Oregon State. Utah has sixth in Havoc and calas

1340
00:58:04,320 --> 00:58:07,160
Speaker 2: one hundred and eighth and Havoc allowed. Utah is gonna

1341
00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:10,040
Speaker 2: probably score two defensive touchdowns in this game. I think

1342
00:58:10,080 --> 00:58:11,960
Speaker 2: the best bet, if you're uncomfortable with the number on

1343
00:58:12,080 --> 00:58:13,880
Speaker 2: Utah is to take Calum the team total.

1344
00:58:13,760 --> 00:58:18,960
Speaker 3: Under YEP, Washington State Oregon is Washington Oregon because Washington

1345
00:58:18,960 --> 00:58:22,000
Speaker 3: State's own this series is Oregon finally get the revenge.

1346
00:58:22,000 --> 00:58:23,840
Speaker 3: Fourteen point favorites at home in Eugene.

1347
00:58:24,240 --> 00:58:26,120
Speaker 2: I mean, this is crazy. Organ's not won this game

1348
00:58:26,160 --> 00:58:28,880
Speaker 2: since twenty fourteen. Orgon hasn't covered this game since two

1349
00:58:28,880 --> 00:58:31,000
Speaker 2: thousand and nine. This is the same spot as last year.

1350
00:58:31,040 --> 00:58:32,880
Speaker 2: I mean, Oregon beat Washington and then they went and

1351
00:58:32,880 --> 00:58:35,480
Speaker 2: played Wazoo and they lost thirty four to twenty. Herbert

1352
00:58:35,560 --> 00:58:38,680
Speaker 2: hit nine different targets against Washington without his top tight

1353
00:58:38,800 --> 00:58:41,320
Speaker 2: end who is injured on the season. Does Oregon go

1354
00:58:41,480 --> 00:58:43,920
Speaker 2: conservative in this game with a look ahead to a

1355
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:46,640
Speaker 2: usc game and does that allow Washington State to kind

1356
00:58:46,680 --> 00:58:48,640
Speaker 2: of hang around? You know? I mean, but the trends

1357
00:58:48,680 --> 00:58:51,200
Speaker 2: are just amazing in this series about how many times

1358
00:58:51,320 --> 00:58:53,280
Speaker 2: Washington State is covered and won this game.

1359
00:58:53,560 --> 00:58:55,520
Speaker 3: All right, let's close up before we go three and

1360
00:58:55,560 --> 00:58:58,840
Speaker 3: out with the SEC and I always have to get

1361
00:58:58,880 --> 00:59:00,360
Speaker 3: your We talked to Auburn. Now let's you already have

1362
00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:03,160
Speaker 3: to get your opinion on Arkansas Arkansas Alabama BAMA thirty

1363
00:59:03,200 --> 00:59:06,280
Speaker 3: two point favorite without Tua at home over under fifty

1364
00:59:06,320 --> 00:59:06,800
Speaker 3: five and a half.

1365
00:59:06,880 --> 00:59:12,480
Speaker 5: Thoughts here, whoo pig suey absolute dumpster fined, dumpster fine.

1366
00:59:12,560 --> 00:59:13,880
Speaker 2: I don't know how we win a game the rest

1367
00:59:13,880 --> 00:59:16,000
Speaker 2: of the year. Just blow the program up, give us

1368
00:59:16,040 --> 00:59:21,640
Speaker 2: a death sentence. Collins talking razorback football no, I think

1369
00:59:21,640 --> 00:59:23,520
Speaker 2: the number is correct. I think that's a good adjustment

1370
00:59:23,560 --> 00:59:25,880
Speaker 2: for TUA. You know, the oddsmakers are doing it just

1371
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:28,160
Speaker 2: a little bit over a TD. And Saban's not happy

1372
00:59:28,200 --> 00:59:31,000
Speaker 2: with his red zone turnovers, which is hilarious because Arkansas's

1373
00:59:31,000 --> 00:59:33,200
Speaker 2: red zone defense is pretty terrible, so they should convert

1374
00:59:33,240 --> 00:59:34,920
Speaker 2: that this week. You know, he's mentioned a lot of

1375
00:59:35,000 --> 00:59:39,080
Speaker 2: things about lack of details missing in practice. He's chastised

1376
00:59:39,120 --> 00:59:43,480
Speaker 2: his assistant coaches, his players. He's mentioned explosive runs continue

1377
00:59:43,520 --> 00:59:46,520
Speaker 2: to be the achilles heel of the Alabama defense. They're

1378
00:59:46,600 --> 00:59:48,560
Speaker 2: not filling gaps, A, B and C gaps with the

1379
00:59:48,640 --> 00:59:50,360
Speaker 2: rush d. Arkansas is not going to be able to

1380
00:59:50,400 --> 00:59:52,560
Speaker 2: expose any of this stuff. But why bring it up

1381
00:59:52,800 --> 00:59:54,840
Speaker 2: is because LSU is going to be able to expose

1382
00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:57,120
Speaker 2: a lot of this stuff. Kicker will Rekerd. He's going

1383
00:59:57,200 --> 01:00:00,480
Speaker 2: to be out for Saban in this game. Mentioned on

1384
01:00:00,560 --> 01:00:02,200
Speaker 2: Monday during his presser that his kicker will not be

1385
01:00:02,240 --> 01:00:04,200
Speaker 2: available for this game. So that's something to watch here.

1386
01:00:04,520 --> 01:00:06,720
Speaker 2: As far as taking an under or thinking that Arkansas

1387
01:00:06,800 --> 01:00:08,800
Speaker 2: can cover, you know, Alabama just wants to get to

1388
01:00:08,840 --> 01:00:11,280
Speaker 2: the bye week healthy. Chad Morris is under a ton

1389
01:00:11,320 --> 01:00:13,720
Speaker 2: of pressure and he's looking for a moral victory here.

1390
01:00:14,400 --> 01:00:16,720
Speaker 2: You know, Arkansas is still bottom five in red zone scoring.

1391
01:00:16,800 --> 01:00:18,680
Speaker 2: If you have the guts to take Arkansas and this

1392
01:00:18,800 --> 01:00:21,200
Speaker 2: huge spread, you know, more power to you. I just

1393
01:00:21,240 --> 01:00:22,880
Speaker 2: can't do it. But it's an Arkansas spot.

1394
01:00:23,520 --> 01:00:26,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, And you also like Missouri minus ten in Lexington

1395
01:00:26,240 --> 01:00:26,960
Speaker 3: against Kentucky.

1396
01:00:27,040 --> 01:00:28,200
Speaker 5: I just can't figure out Missouri.

1397
01:00:28,200 --> 01:00:29,800
Speaker 3: I mean there's all there's you know, are they gonna

1398
01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:32,480
Speaker 3: be posteason eligible? They not? With his appeals and where's

1399
01:00:32,520 --> 01:00:34,720
Speaker 3: their head? I mean they've had two head scratchers. They

1400
01:00:34,840 --> 01:00:37,800
Speaker 3: lost to open the air has sixteen point favorites at Wyoming,

1401
01:00:38,040 --> 01:00:39,760
Speaker 3: and then they lost last week as twenty one point

1402
01:00:39,800 --> 01:00:42,400
Speaker 3: favorites at Vanderbilt. Clear stay away from me. But you

1403
01:00:42,520 --> 01:00:43,520
Speaker 3: like the Tigers, Yeah.

1404
01:00:43,560 --> 01:00:46,120
Speaker 2: I think in both those losses, their postgame win expectancy

1405
01:00:46,320 --> 01:00:48,600
Speaker 2: was extremely high. They shouldn't have lost those two games.

1406
01:00:48,640 --> 01:00:52,000
Speaker 2: And the number I make is a lot higher against Kentucky.

1407
01:00:52,120 --> 01:00:55,400
Speaker 2: I think Kentucky is maybe propped up by you know,

1408
01:00:55,520 --> 01:00:58,720
Speaker 2: beating Arkansas by four points not covering the initial spread.

1409
01:00:58,800 --> 01:01:00,680
Speaker 2: By that, I think Kentucky's got a lot of issues.

1410
01:01:00,680 --> 01:01:02,800
Speaker 2: It's just their issues aren't as bad as maybe say

1411
01:01:02,880 --> 01:01:06,320
Speaker 2: Vanderbilt and say Tennessee and say Arkansas. So I think

1412
01:01:06,360 --> 01:01:07,400
Speaker 2: Missouri is gonna roll here.

1413
01:01:08,000 --> 01:01:10,120
Speaker 5: And then I guess we have to mention the fun Belt.

1414
01:01:10,680 --> 01:01:13,440
Speaker 2: Don't let the latest come between you and the belt.

1415
01:01:14,280 --> 01:01:17,080
Speaker 5: APP State South Alabama, APP State role.

1416
01:01:17,240 --> 01:01:19,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, take app State first half. They play on a

1417
01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:22,919
Speaker 2: short week in Georgia Southern, and so what they're gonna

1418
01:01:22,920 --> 01:01:25,320
Speaker 2: want to do is is establish themselves early, get a

1419
01:01:25,440 --> 01:01:27,320
Speaker 2: huge lead, and probably sit on the football the rest

1420
01:01:27,360 --> 01:01:29,320
Speaker 2: of the game because of the early week going up

1421
01:01:29,320 --> 01:01:32,080
Speaker 2: against Georgia Southern. So look to take them the first half,

1422
01:01:32,640 --> 01:01:33,160
Speaker 2: all right, and.

1423
01:01:33,240 --> 01:01:36,600
Speaker 3: Then before we get out of here, let's go three

1424
01:01:36,680 --> 01:01:37,000
Speaker 3: and out.

1425
01:01:38,840 --> 01:01:41,800
Speaker 1: Great, let's make it a quick three and out.

1426
01:01:43,800 --> 01:01:44,360
Speaker 5: First down.

1427
01:01:44,520 --> 01:01:47,080
Speaker 3: We'll have a right up for this game. USC Colorado.

1428
01:01:47,240 --> 01:01:49,000
Speaker 3: I like the Bosss. It's a great spot for them.

1429
01:01:49,120 --> 01:01:51,720
Speaker 3: Short week, They're a little healthier on defense. You have

1430
01:01:51,800 --> 01:01:54,520
Speaker 3: Misstafah Johnson back. You know, sheanald is back on the

1431
01:01:54,600 --> 01:01:57,400
Speaker 3: offensive side. USC's defense is so banged up there without

1432
01:01:57,400 --> 01:01:59,200
Speaker 3: four starters last week. They lost three or four more

1433
01:01:59,600 --> 01:02:01,720
Speaker 3: last week that of Oregon on deck. I mean, this

1434
01:02:01,880 --> 01:02:03,959
Speaker 3: is a get right spot for now. USC should score

1435
01:02:04,000 --> 01:02:05,320
Speaker 3: and they're gonna be able to throw it, but they're

1436
01:02:05,320 --> 01:02:08,080
Speaker 3: ow and three on the road. I think Colorado also

1437
01:02:08,120 --> 01:02:10,960
Speaker 3: could score on this banged up USC defense. I like

1438
01:02:11,200 --> 01:02:12,800
Speaker 3: the Buffs to keep this cluse he doesn't get the

1439
01:02:12,800 --> 01:02:14,240
Speaker 3: fourteen out by by it on the cheap.

1440
01:02:14,600 --> 01:02:16,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm mine it right now because I'm noticing as

1441
01:02:16,480 --> 01:02:18,080
Speaker 2: we're recording that it's dropped to twelve and a half

1442
01:02:18,120 --> 01:02:20,280
Speaker 2: at a sharp book. So there's a thirteen and a

1443
01:02:20,280 --> 01:02:22,160
Speaker 2: half out there, not juiced. I'm gonna I'm gonna pay

1444
01:02:22,160 --> 01:02:23,680
Speaker 2: a little bit and I'm gonna get it up to fourteen.

1445
01:02:23,800 --> 01:02:26,760
Speaker 2: Colorado is the play here Leviscus channel completely one erred

1446
01:02:26,760 --> 01:02:29,600
Speaker 2: percent healthy. They've got other options that are healthy. Steven

1447
01:02:29,640 --> 01:02:32,160
Speaker 2: Monte has had seven interceptions his last two games. If

1448
01:02:32,200 --> 01:02:35,480
Speaker 2: he can play a clean game, they might upset USC

1449
01:02:35,600 --> 01:02:38,720
Speaker 2: in the spot. USC is unbelievable with how many injuries

1450
01:02:38,800 --> 01:02:40,600
Speaker 2: they have on both sides of the ball. The defense

1451
01:02:40,720 --> 01:02:43,640
Speaker 2: is just completely torn apart by injuries. Running back slope

1452
01:02:43,840 --> 01:02:45,960
Speaker 2: running back. Yeah, but Condon Slopes does have all of

1453
01:02:46,000 --> 01:02:48,280
Speaker 2: his targets. But I mean everybody else on this USC

1454
01:02:48,400 --> 01:02:49,080
Speaker 2: team is injured.

1455
01:02:49,440 --> 01:02:51,640
Speaker 5: Yeh, all right, and then second down, our favorite overdog.

1456
01:02:51,800 --> 01:02:53,320
Speaker 2: It's called the overdog Parlay.

1457
01:02:53,440 --> 01:02:56,760
Speaker 3: I already mentioned mine, Clemson, who you're rolling with? Utah

1458
01:02:57,040 --> 01:03:00,640
Speaker 3: by far Utah and Clemson trucks. And then on third

1459
01:03:00,720 --> 01:03:03,560
Speaker 3: down our underdog money line Parlay.

1460
01:03:05,920 --> 01:03:10,800
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1461
01:03:11,000 --> 01:03:12,280
Speaker 1: money line, Parlay.

1462
01:03:13,920 --> 01:03:15,360
Speaker 5: I'm wrong with Sparty. Who are you going with?

1463
01:03:15,960 --> 01:03:18,400
Speaker 2: I can't say you mess right, Ucla. I'm going to

1464
01:03:18,480 --> 01:03:19,480
Speaker 2: Ucla for mine.

1465
01:03:19,480 --> 01:03:21,960
Speaker 3: All right, Colin, Ucla and Sparty. We'll have a write

1466
01:03:22,000 --> 01:03:24,480
Speaker 3: up for that on Saturday. Maybe Colin will change his

1467
01:03:24,520 --> 01:03:26,120
Speaker 3: But thanks for listening, Thanks for joining me.

1468
01:03:26,200 --> 01:03:26,439
Speaker 5: Colin.

1469
01:03:26,800 --> 01:03:30,120
Speaker 3: Make sure you rate. Subscribe to the Action Network podcast review.

1470
01:03:30,200 --> 01:03:32,720
Speaker 3: Tell a friend you know the drill. Don't forget about

1471
01:03:32,800 --> 01:03:35,840
Speaker 3: the voicemails. This weekend a lot of marquee games. We

1472
01:03:35,960 --> 01:03:38,280
Speaker 3: expect to hear from you. Five seven five six five

1473
01:03:38,360 --> 01:03:40,880
Speaker 3: five zero six six four. We'll catch you on Saturday

1474
01:03:40,920 --> 01:03:41,680
Speaker 3: morning at ten am.

1475
01:03:41,960 --> 01:03:43,640
Speaker 2: Cheers, peace Out,