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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast pod. All Right,

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Speaker 1: here we go.

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Speaker 2: Fifteen Cuny twenty five, thirty thirty five, Tony Cony five fifty.

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Speaker 1: And the kicks block Look College Football World stunner, Oh

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Speaker 1: my goodness, plea.

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Speaker 3: Stumble the football, the lateral turn, the counter on the side.

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Speaker 2: Don't you believe.

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Speaker 3: Tap them off the field tonight. It's not the sage

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Speaker 3: BA game anything. It's the sage of the fight.

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Speaker 1: In the Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast,

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Speaker 1: brought to you by bat MGM. This is the group

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Speaker 1: of five Deep Dive. I'm your host Mike Calberry is

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Speaker 1: joined by my co host Mike Ianello. Here on Feast

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Speaker 1: week Turkey Week. Let's get things started just by throwing

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Speaker 1: out something obvious. We're thankful for you, the listeners. You

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Speaker 1: guys have been riding with us all season. Thankfully we

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Speaker 1: were able to give you some winners last week. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna try to get back to those winning ways here

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Speaker 1: in week thirteen. Happy Thanksgiving gamblers, We're thankful for you.

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Speaker 1: And some programming notes. The College Basketball Bets Bets episodes

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Speaker 1: are back with Gusto. At this point in the season,

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Speaker 1: three Man Weave are here on the Big Bets on

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Speaker 1: Campus podcast. Their weekly edition will be out later tonight,

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Speaker 1: and finally, the flagship show with Colin and Stucky will

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Speaker 1: be out tomorrow, probably about two three am Eastern time tonight.

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Speaker 1: If you're excited to pop out of bed and listen

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Speaker 1: to some college football takes right away. It's an earlier

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Speaker 1: slate this week because of Thanksgiving, so we're gonna make

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Speaker 1: sure to get you all that great college football betting

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Speaker 1: knowledge early. All right, Ianello, we're gonna hop into something

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Speaker 1: that you came up with. I'm gonna give you full

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Speaker 1: credit on this. When we started the podcast, you're like, hey,

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Speaker 1: this needs to be positive, this needs to be a

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Speaker 1: celebration of the little So you came up with the

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Speaker 1: G five Hero segment. So I'll kick it to you

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Speaker 1: here in week thirteen. Who is your Week twelve G

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Speaker 1: five Hero hero?

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Speaker 3: Babe Calbreys. I'm thankful for you.

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Speaker 4: You've been a great co host over last year's Matt Mitchell,

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Speaker 4: thankful for him, excellent podcast producer.

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Speaker 3: And I'm thankful for South Florida.

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Speaker 4: Quarterback Byron Brown, a true fresh This by way, we

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Speaker 4: don't ought to have G five heroes a week.

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Speaker 3: Who lose, but this is a gambling podcast.

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Speaker 4: True freshman making his first start after Gary Bohannon and

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Speaker 4: Katravis marsh both got hurt.

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Speaker 3: What are you doing?

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Speaker 4: His first start four total touchdowns and just four incompletions

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Speaker 4: to give South Florida a thrilling forty two to forty

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Speaker 4: eight cover last Friday.

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Speaker 3: Thank you for the cover.

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Speaker 1: That was a great pick on your part, and really

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Speaker 1: it boiled down to Hey told his shouldn't be favored

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Speaker 1: by that much against anybody, which was correct. Speaking of

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Speaker 1: the AAC, my hero, the entire AAC, because this year

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Speaker 1: in g five lands, you know, we had some build

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Speaker 1: up in the last five years. You know, is UCF

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Speaker 1: going to go to the National title game? Are they

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Speaker 1: going to get respect at Cincinnati? Going to break through

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Speaker 1: that glass ceiling and finally punch a ticket for the

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Speaker 1: little guys to the college football Playoff? Very early on

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Speaker 1: it was clear that was not what the season was

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Speaker 1: going to be about. And because of that, I think

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Speaker 1: the you know, the race for the new year six

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Speaker 1: has become more and more interesting, at least from where

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Speaker 1: we sit and the center of the universe. Here is

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Speaker 1: the AAC. You got UCF still in position. Cincinnati and Tulane.

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Speaker 1: Now you have this two lane Cincinnati game here late

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Speaker 1: in the season. Whoever wins that is going to punch

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Speaker 1: a ticket to the AC title game. They're probably going

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Speaker 1: to play Central Florida. I'm just impressed with everything that's

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Speaker 1: gone on, particularly on the two lane side. We talked

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Speaker 1: a little bit in the preseason about what it would

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Speaker 1: take for a team to be a sleeper to hop

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Speaker 1: past a Houston or an SMU, and they put it

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Speaker 1: all together on both sides of the ball. They were

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Speaker 1: dynamically last week. So I just really like the brand

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Speaker 1: of football that's being played across the conference. It's been exciting.

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Speaker 1: Whether you're betting on it or not, it's been a

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Speaker 1: lot of fun. And my eyes will be glued to

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Speaker 1: that Cincinnati game. I think you're going to touch on

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Speaker 1: that a little bit later in the podcast.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm curious.

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Speaker 4: Do you think at this point the winner of the

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Speaker 4: AAC is definitely that New Year six birth or do

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Speaker 4: you think UTSA or Coastal still have a shot if

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Speaker 4: they win convincingly in the Sun Belt or Conference WHOSA

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Speaker 4: title games.

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Speaker 1: I would say, barring what would probably need to happen

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Speaker 1: here is we need to see an upset by I

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Speaker 1: believe South Florida is playing Central Florida, so you need

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Speaker 1: to have a loss.

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Speaker 3: There, and then Central Florida plays NA. Yeah, I know

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Speaker 3: it is South.

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Speaker 1: Florida, right, Yeah. So at this point, if they were

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Speaker 1: to take another loss and then they were to win

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Speaker 1: somehow the AAC title Game to get in with three yes,

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Speaker 1: I think it would require three losses from the AAC

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Speaker 1: champ and also Boise's kind of hanging there in the

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Speaker 1: weeds as well. With three laws year, it would take

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Speaker 1: a lot. I would probably put the odds at, you know,

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Speaker 1: less than five percent for Coastal that continue their dream

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Speaker 1: run because also you have to keep in mind the

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Speaker 1: human element of the playoff committee they take into account.

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Speaker 1: Is Grace McCall going to play again? He probably is not,

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Speaker 1: So if he was there, I think from a star

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Speaker 1: factor perspective, they might give Coastal a chance. But at

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Speaker 1: this point, I think it's AAC your bust. All right,

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Speaker 1: We're going to flip. Now do our best bets here.

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Speaker 1: In week thirteen, I'm going to get kickstarted with a

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Speaker 1: play out of the Sun Belt Southern miss laying three

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Speaker 1: at Louisiana Monroe. The Golden Eagles can be a difficult

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Speaker 1: team to get up for. Emotionally, as a better you're

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Speaker 1: not necessarily brimming with confidence when you slide that bet

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Speaker 1: across the across the window. But here's the deal. Their

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Speaker 1: defense leads the nation interception rate, they're tenth and sack rate.

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Speaker 1: And you know it's an old cliche, play field position.

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Speaker 1: They played very well fourth nationally in field position, and

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Speaker 1: they can really stop the run. On the other side,

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Speaker 1: rose defense has an opportunity to make the Golden Eagles

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Speaker 1: look dynamic. They're one hundred and twenty seventh in scoring

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Speaker 1: d You can kill them on the ground. They give

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Speaker 1: a four point eight yards per carry. That's all USM

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Speaker 1: is going to do in this game. So four point

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Speaker 1: eight yards per carry, by the way, that's one hundred

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Speaker 1: and eleventh nationally. Finally, USM nearly upset South Alabama last week.

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Speaker 1: I think there's still that that team that is a

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Speaker 1: really difficult out, even when their offense isn't humming. They

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Speaker 1: were outgained by over one hundred yards there, and they

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Speaker 1: were right on the jags heel the whole way. And

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Speaker 1: clearly they're the best team or the second best team

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Speaker 1: in the sun Belt West. So I think that was

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Speaker 1: a quality loss to borrow some verbiage from March madness

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Speaker 1: and resume building and things of that nature. So I'm

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Speaker 1: going to go ahead and lay the three here. I

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Speaker 1: would play it all the way up to six and

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Speaker 1: a half. I think the Warhawks are kind of a

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Speaker 1: dead team walking at this point with Bowl eligibility out

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Speaker 1: the window. What are your thoughts on USM here.

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Speaker 3: I'm astually going to touch on this game a little

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Speaker 3: bit later. We may be doubling down here.

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Speaker 1: Fantastic, all right? How about your best bet?

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Speaker 4: I'm sicking the sun Belt too, and kind of a

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Speaker 4: similar mindset to you. A Sun Belt team that is

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Speaker 4: sitting at five and six and needs to win to

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Speaker 4: go bowling, which I always like to target this last week.

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Speaker 4: I'm going to lay five and a half. It's been

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Speaker 4: kind of jumping around five and a halfs what it

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Speaker 4: was last night. I'm really the five and a half

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Speaker 4: for Louisiana against Texas State. Louisiana has reached the Bowl

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Speaker 4: and all four seasons under Billion A Pier, they've won

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Speaker 4: three straight Bowl games. Overall, they're seven and two in

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Speaker 4: Bowl games. That tells me that they take them seriously

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Speaker 4: and that they care about them. Now they sit five

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Speaker 4: and six, have a chance to keep their bull streak

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Speaker 4: alive and their first year on your new head coach,

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Speaker 4: Ragie Cagans. They have to get a step back this year.

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Speaker 4: I only I bet on them all season, but Texas

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Speaker 4: State is one of the worst teams in the Sunbelt.

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Speaker 3: I think this is probably the end of this Favool

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Speaker 3: family reunion. Do you agree with that? I think this

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Speaker 3: is kind of they've worn out there, we hocome a

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Speaker 3: little bit.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's time for a regime change in

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Speaker 1: San Marcos.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. They're one of the worst offensive teams in the country.

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Speaker 4: They are dead last in the Sunbelt in yards to

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Speaker 4: play one hundred and twenty first in the country.

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Speaker 3: It can't pass the ball at all.

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Speaker 4: Layne Hatcher is nineteen turnover where he plays ninth most

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Speaker 4: in the country. They just have eight rushing touchdowns all season.

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Speaker 4: Only four teams have fewer. You know, Calvin Hill has

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Speaker 4: been their top back, but he's been hurt for pretty

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Speaker 4: much this whole year. And while Louisiana has struggled against

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Speaker 4: the run, they have been pretty solid against the pass.

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Speaker 3: And Georgia Southern is the only team to.

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Speaker 4: Throw for over two hundred and fifty yards against them

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Speaker 4: in the last eight games. Texas State is they throw

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Speaker 4: the ball at the twenty second highest rate in the country,

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Speaker 4: so they're going to throw it, but they stink at it.

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Speaker 4: They're just one hundred and twenty third in success rate.

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Speaker 4: Louisiana quarterbacks Ben Wooldridge and Chandler Fields have basically split

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Speaker 4: reps the entire season, but now Woldrid is out for

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Speaker 4: the season, so it's going to be Chandler Fields going forward.

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Speaker 4: He's been Levy Lewis backup for three seasons. He's been

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Speaker 4: in this program. He just thirteen big time throws, five turner.

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Speaker 3: The really plays.

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Speaker 4: He actually is the highest big time throw rate in

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Speaker 4: the Sunbelt. He just hasn't, you know, played that much.

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Speaker 4: But they finally have gotten their running game going, which

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Speaker 4: was really the issue early on. They have over two

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Speaker 4: hundred yards on the ground. It's three of their last

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Speaker 4: four games, you know, before the Florida State game, which

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Speaker 4: I'm pretty much throwing out out. Chris Smith is the

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Speaker 4: league guy, but they do rotate him with Terrence Williams

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Speaker 4: and Draylen Washington.

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Speaker 3: We've both been pretty good last.

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Speaker 4: Year, the Louisiana team was one of the most experienced

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Speaker 4: teams in the entire country. They ranked one hundred and

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Speaker 4: fourteenth this season in returning production. That was a big

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Speaker 4: reason we didn't like them. We kind of faded them

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Speaker 4: almost the entire first half of the season. If you

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Speaker 4: look at though, as they've kind of grown this year,

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Speaker 4: you can see they've gotten so much better as the

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Speaker 4: season has gone on. They're a new coaching staff, a

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Speaker 4: new roster. I think with a team full of underclassmen's

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Speaker 4: team I like to target that's going to still care

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Speaker 4: about making a bowl game. Having this postseason, They're all

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Speaker 4: going to be back next year, so I think they're

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Speaker 4: going to finish out this season strong.

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Speaker 3: If I love the spot of.

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Speaker 4: Them needing to win a bowl game against a pretty

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Speaker 4: bad Texas State team.

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Speaker 1: I think the narrative is spot on. If you want

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Speaker 1: to successfully make money betting football, it's got to be

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Speaker 1: a certain amount of time where you're taking teams, you're

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Speaker 1: holding your nose. You don't have any illusions that this

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Speaker 1: is a great football team or a team that's just

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Speaker 1: about to turn the corner. But they're certainly head and

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Speaker 1: shoulders above Tech State who's kind of, as I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: a dead team walking, which is how I'll transition into

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Speaker 1: our G five High five round robin, because there's some

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Speaker 1: teams on the board here that I would love to

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Speaker 1: fade and will do so with Gusto. The G five

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Speaker 1: High five should be high.

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Speaker 3: Five, high five.

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Speaker 1: We've done pretty well with this throughout the entire season.

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Speaker 1: Can't say the same for an underdog parlay section. So

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Speaker 1: you're gonna want to move a little bit closer to

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Speaker 1: your audio speaker for this section. I'm gonna get started

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Speaker 1: with a little bit of a cheat. They are FBS independent,

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Speaker 1: They're not necessarily part of the G five, but we're

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Speaker 1: a big tent organization where you like to open our

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Speaker 1: arms to the teams out there in the independent wilderness.

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Speaker 1: BUYU lay in six and a half at Stanford. Talk

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Speaker 1: about a team that just doesn't care. They're done. Stanford's

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Speaker 1: done with this season. There's no hope for Oh, we're

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Speaker 1: going to bring in a new coaching staff. Apparently David

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Speaker 1: Shaw is just gonna be able to coach there on

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Speaker 1: the farm for as long as he wants. They've lost

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Speaker 1: four straight by an average twenty six points per game.

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Speaker 3: You gotta flush that thing down the toilet like your

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Speaker 3: goldfish in fourth grade. Man, that think's dead and gone.

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Speaker 1: They just to their arch rival Cal That was the

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Speaker 1: last real opportunity to get up for a game all season.

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Speaker 1: They lose by seven in a bit of a heartbreaker BYU.

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Speaker 1: On the other end, they're closing strong. They upset Boise.

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Speaker 1: They have a huge offensive showcase against Utah Tech. Jaron

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Speaker 1: Hall went for four point fifty six and five touchdowns

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Speaker 1: in that game, and not much of a shocker because

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Speaker 1: he's finally dealing with a full deck a healthy receiving corps,

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Speaker 1: namely Puka Nakua. This all of a sudden becomes a

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Speaker 1: different team than they were a month ago when he

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Speaker 1: was constantly hurt with that high ankle sprain. They had

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Speaker 1: issues on the perimeter. Who were they going to look

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Speaker 1: to now that they're dealing at full strength. I think

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Speaker 1: this BOYU team is going to deal some huge body blows,

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Speaker 1: some explosive plays against Stanford, and Stanford eighty eighth against

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Speaker 1: the pass, one hundred and thirteenth in interception rate, eighty

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Speaker 1: second in sacrate. What does that translate to? They don't

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Speaker 1: create any havoc. So on the other side. Is there

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Speaker 1: a backdoor cover opportunity whenever you see, you know, a

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Speaker 1: spread like this close to the key number of seven.

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Speaker 1: Stanford's been pretty awful on offense. They're eighty first and

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Speaker 1: success rate one hundred and first in explosiveness when they

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Speaker 1: have the football, well, I don't see them getting it

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Speaker 1: done here, even though it is in Palo Alto. I

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Speaker 1: like BYU adding one more wins to their total this

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Speaker 1: year and trying to ride some solid momentum into boldseason.

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Speaker 1: BYU a team that for a good stretch of the

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Speaker 1: season was in the top twenty five. I think now

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Speaker 1: that we're dealing with the team that took the field

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Speaker 1: to start the year when they absolutely crushed USF. I

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Speaker 1: think that's the kind of brand of football we're going

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Speaker 1: to see here at the end. So what are your

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Speaker 1: thoughts on the Cougar's here playing against the powerfight program

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Speaker 1: that's really floundering.

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Speaker 4: I agree Stanford's you know, their garbage. I think they

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Speaker 4: they agree that I they've quit and the YU that

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Speaker 4: if she has been their defense. But like you said,

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Speaker 4: the Stanford offense has just done nothing. I think it's

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Speaker 4: so funny by the way that all the preseason draft type,

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Speaker 4: and it's going to continue because people do draft type

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Speaker 4: don't actually watch college football all offseason. All you're going

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Speaker 4: to hear about this upcoming draft is Will Levis, Tanner McKee,

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Speaker 4: and Tyler Van Dyke.

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Speaker 3: And all three of them did absolute garbage this season.

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Speaker 4: And I cannot wait to just be so angry listening

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Speaker 4: to people who don't watch college football be like, oh,

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Speaker 4: but look how tall Tanner McKee is, how good he

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Speaker 4: looks in short It's like, yeah, but he can't play football.

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Speaker 3: Same with Lews. All right, I digress for mine.

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Speaker 4: I'm going back to somebell as well. I'm pretty much

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Speaker 4: all sun Belt this week. I'm taking Marshall minus six

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Speaker 4: against Georgia State. I bet Marshall will win the sun

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Speaker 4: Belt be for the year. And while that obviously is

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Speaker 4: not gonna happen, I still think this has been a

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Speaker 4: pretty good season all things considered. They're seven to four

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Speaker 4: heading to a bowl game for the sixth straight year,

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Speaker 4: thundering Her beat Notre Dame in South Bends, which just

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Speaker 4: looks even better now. They've won three games in a

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Speaker 4: row for the last five. Starting quarterback Henry Columbia got

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Speaker 4: her after six games regrow freshman Cam Fancher had to

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Speaker 4: take over. He showed a little bit at first, but

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Speaker 4: he has two touchdowns and needs the last two games.

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Speaker 4: But the biggest news for the Thundering Heard came last week.

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Speaker 4: Rachine Ellie is back. He finally came back last year

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Speaker 4: after leading the country in touchdowns last season, and he

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Speaker 4: kind of looked like his old self. He had sixteen

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Speaker 4: carries for eventy nine yards averaged four point nine yards

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Speaker 4: per carry.

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Speaker 3: But even without him, honestly, this offense has.

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Speaker 4: Been dominant on the ground. Kaylin Lebourne is averaging one

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Speaker 4: hundred and twenty yards per game this season fourteen scores,

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Speaker 4: both lead the Sumbelt. But honestly, the real star of

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Speaker 4: this Marshall team has been its defense. You know, do

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Speaker 4: you know Marshall's second in the entire country in defensive

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Speaker 4: success rate.

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Speaker 1: I did not know that. I had a feeling obviously

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Speaker 1: that they were carrying them concerning they couldn't throw the

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Speaker 1: ball for the entire season. But that's still impressive to

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Speaker 1: be that high up on the board.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the second in the whole country. They're second against

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Speaker 4: the past, seventh against the run.

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Speaker 3: They've allowed just four point four yards per play.

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Speaker 4: And Georgia State has the fifth highest rush rate in

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Speaker 4: the country and it's just ninety eighth in success rate.

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Speaker 4: Darren Granger has been this team's leading rusher last year.

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Speaker 4: After both greg and Williams averaged over sixty six yards

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Speaker 4: per game last year, They've both averaged under sixty three

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Speaker 4: this year, so both of them have just taken big

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Speaker 4: steps back. The offense has just not looked right really

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Speaker 4: all year. And they were another team I was super

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Speaker 4: high in comings the year and they've just I look

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Speaker 4: like a mess all year. This Marshall defense is so

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Speaker 4: good and they're so deep at every single spot, like

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Speaker 4: they don't only have a weakness. You know, Eli k Neil,

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Speaker 4: Charlie Gray and Abraham boat Plan are three stud linebackers

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Speaker 4: that just totally clogged the run.

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Speaker 3: They got.

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Speaker 4: Steven Gilmore, Sean Gilmore's little brother, and Mikey Abraham are

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Speaker 4: both lockdown corners.

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Speaker 3: And then Owen Porter is just an absolute free getting

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Speaker 3: after the quarterback.

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Speaker 4: He has forty four pressures in ten sacks this season.

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Speaker 4: This unit is second in the country at creating havoc.

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Speaker 4: You know, George d doesn't throw it off, but when

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Speaker 4: they do, their offensive line is not very good. Granger

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Speaker 4: is going to be under pressure anytime he drops back,

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Speaker 4: and Georgia State has had a really disappointing four and

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Speaker 4: seven season. There are season's over while Marshall still has

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Speaker 4: the Bowl games look forward to, and I think they

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Speaker 4: get the added boost of Ali returning. He's definitely gonna

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Speaker 4: want to keep fighting. So I think Marshall kind of

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Speaker 4: just runs it up on him here at home lane six.

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Speaker 4: I think I think it's under herret pull White pretty good.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, like that play. That's another game that I'm going

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Speaker 1: to watch a little bit of because I think we've

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Speaker 1: been deprived the whole season. We wanted to see what Lamborghini,

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Speaker 1: Labourn and Ali would look like, you know, being a

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Speaker 1: one two punch. Clearly Labourn was able to carry it

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Speaker 1: beload throughout the season, you know, going well over one

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Speaker 1: thousand years rushing in his own right. So I think

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Speaker 1: the recipes there, great defense, great running game. That should

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Speaker 1: be enough against the Georgia State team that I believe

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Speaker 1: last week gave up forty two points to James Madison,

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Speaker 1: so they're more than happy to give up explosive plays

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Speaker 1: left and right this time of year. Feast Week Turkey week,

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Speaker 1: whether it's the you know, the Wednesday before big drinking holiday,

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Speaker 1: make sure to mix in a glass of water at

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Speaker 1: some point, or Thanksgiving and the day after. Everyone just

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Speaker 1: wants to treat themselves constantly. It's excess. It's excess. And

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Speaker 1: when it comes to gambling, that usually translates to bet

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Speaker 1: over on everything. Life's too short to bet the end

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Speaker 1: of blah blah blah. Well, here I am to just

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Speaker 1: give you a little, you know, something food for thought

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Speaker 1: in this spot, which is mix in and under. You know,

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Speaker 1: whether that's the equivalent of mixing in a salad you know,

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Speaker 1: during the Thanksgiving meal or something, just a little something

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Speaker 1: that's good for you taking your vitamins, so to speak.

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Speaker 3: How about throw little carrots on your plate?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. They can have a demi glaze. They can

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Speaker 1: still be tasty. How about this for a demi glaze

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Speaker 1: under forty six and a half. Troy, Arkansas State. Troy

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Speaker 1: keeps showing up for me. They don't live up, they

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Speaker 1: don't let up, Big Blaze. They're twelfth in that department

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Speaker 1: in the entire country in terms of limiting explosiveness. There's

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Speaker 1: sixteen or pardon me, they're going up sixteen points six

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Speaker 1: points per game in the entire season. That's seventh nationally.

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Speaker 1: You just dropped a Sun Belt stat in terms of

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Speaker 1: a top ten defensive metric. There's another top ten defensive metric.

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Speaker 1: And their offense stinks. It still does. I mean, I

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Speaker 1: know I took them last week. They were able to

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Speaker 1: cover the number, but they're eighty second in success rate,

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Speaker 1: their ninetieth and explosiveness. They're not particularly great on the ground,

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Speaker 1: although they had some success last week. And then think

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Speaker 1: about Arkansas State. They've been a whipping boy for us

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Speaker 1: dating all the way back to the preseason. Love to

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Speaker 1: go after Butch Jones. This defense was supposed to be

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Speaker 1: historically bad. They're not. They're actually pretty good against the run.

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Speaker 1: And I think that what that's going to do is

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Speaker 1: going to force some longer drives, going to force the

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Speaker 1: ball into you know, into the air. In terms of

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Speaker 1: you know, Troy's game plan. That's not great for them.

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Speaker 1: So at the end of the day, I see this

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Speaker 1: game being played potentially in the teams and Troy relying

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Speaker 1: on their just incredible defense. And when you look at

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Speaker 1: these two teams in conference play, Unders have gone nine

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Speaker 1: to five in the fourteen games across these two programs,

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Speaker 1: and Troy's Sun Belt unders have cashed by an average

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Speaker 1: of ten points seven points per game, which is incredible

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Speaker 1: because there's been some really low numbers in the high thirties,

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Speaker 1: low forties. So I'm going to go ahead with the

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Speaker 1: under here. When I saw it in the mid forties,

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Speaker 1: I was like, I gotta go ahead and grab that.

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Speaker 1: Troy needs this game to secure their their trip to

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Speaker 1: the Sun Belt Championship game winning by the tiebreaker over

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Speaker 1: South Alabama. So not a look ahead spot, not something

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Speaker 1: so they're going to get into, you know, a problem

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Speaker 1: in terms of taking Arkansas State lightly. So I'll take

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Speaker 1: under forty six and a half. I know it's not

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Speaker 1: the sexiest pick here in the last week of the

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Speaker 1: regular season, but I want to I want to have

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Speaker 1: some winners here for our audience.

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Speaker 3: What do you think, Ianella, I absolutely love it. You know,

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Speaker 3: I love this Troy team and it's their defense is

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Speaker 3: just so good.

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Speaker 4: And I agree with you where it's not a look

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Speaker 4: ahead spot, but I also do think it's very much

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Speaker 4: just win and get a dodge spot where you know

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Speaker 4: they're gonna be fine. Hey, we go out there and

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Speaker 4: we know we can shut them down and we win,

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Speaker 4: you know, twenty one to ten, that's ball game, and

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Speaker 4: I think they they'll look to do that. Just hey,

435
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:24,880
Speaker 4: let's just get the win and get to the Sunbelt title.

436
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,720
Speaker 4: And I am so excited to bet them in the

437
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:29,520
Speaker 4: sun Belt Championship game. I don't even care what the

438
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:31,840
Speaker 4: line is. I'm I'm betting them against Coastal.

439
00:19:31,880 --> 00:19:33,520
Speaker 3: I don't care what it is. It could be minus ten.

440
00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:34,040
Speaker 3: I'm laying it.

441
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:38,320
Speaker 1: We are almost here with the round robin. We got

442
00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:39,080
Speaker 1: one more each.

443
00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:42,560
Speaker 3: Hit me with it, yep, tease it. I'm doubling down.

444
00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:45,399
Speaker 4: I'm taking Southern mess item written down, Southern Mess against you.

445
00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 3: Al Monroe, Monroe, same thing.

446
00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:50,000
Speaker 4: Five and sixteen needs a win to reach a Bowl

447
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,840
Speaker 4: berth first time in three years, first under Will Hall.

448
00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:53,720
Speaker 3: You mentioned it.

449
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 4: The Warhawks aren't good at anything. If you look at

450
00:19:55,840 --> 00:20:00,480
Speaker 4: their advanced metric page, it's just red everywhere. Ninety fifth

451
00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,000
Speaker 4: and successful on offense, one hundred and third on defense.

452
00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,400
Speaker 4: Don't throw the ball well, don't run the ball out,

453
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:07,800
Speaker 4: don't defend the run well, don't defend the pass well.

454
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:11,080
Speaker 4: The entire page just read the only the only thing

455
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 4: they're above averaging is their thirty eighth in passing explosiveness,

456
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:19,400
Speaker 4: so shout out to them there, But Southern missed nineteenth

457
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,719
Speaker 4: in the country's end defense. You mentioned their defense has

458
00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:24,399
Speaker 4: been terrific against the run, top thirty five against the

459
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:28,119
Speaker 4: run and the pass. The offense isn't great, but I

460
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 4: don't know what's going on with them with quarterback issues again.

461
00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 4: You know, Ty Keys played just three games, Trey Low's

462
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,399
Speaker 4: played five. He's back now, he should be the starter.

463
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,960
Speaker 4: Jack Wilk's played eight. They've had six players attempt to

464
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 4: pass this season after having eleven players attempt to pass

465
00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:45,480
Speaker 4: last year.

466
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 3: Frank Gorer.

467
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,560
Speaker 4: He continues to be the harm and soldest team. So

468
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:51,680
Speaker 4: I just some of the miss is just better, and

469
00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:53,560
Speaker 4: I think they have the motivation they need it. I

470
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:55,080
Speaker 4: don't think you al Monroe is gonna be able to

471
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:56,679
Speaker 4: score or run move.

472
00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:57,280
Speaker 3: The ball very well.

473
00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:00,159
Speaker 4: Our action our power ratings make the six and a

474
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,760
Speaker 4: half on a neutral field. So no matter how much

475
00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:05,760
Speaker 4: you give the Warhawks for home field advantage, which I

476
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:09,880
Speaker 4: don't think as much, I certainly like getting minus three

477
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:11,680
Speaker 4: and like you said, I'd play this up to six

478
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:14,040
Speaker 4: six and a half as well, just given the motivation

479
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:17,040
Speaker 4: that that's clearly on the go the Eagles side trying

480
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:17,719
Speaker 4: to reach a bowl game.

481
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:20,080
Speaker 1: Here, At no point am I going to open up

482
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,399
Speaker 1: the action app and say this is in hands just

483
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:25,200
Speaker 1: because you know Southern miss is not going to be

484
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 1: able to pull away. They're not going to score probably

485
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 1: more than twenty eight points in this game. But I

486
00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:31,920
Speaker 1: think if they do get into the upper twenties, I

487
00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,239
Speaker 1: think it's a lock. And giving their defense and their

488
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:37,119
Speaker 1: brand of football. For my last play here in the

489
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:41,199
Speaker 1: G five High five, I'm taking a car driving up

490
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,320
Speaker 1: to podcast prison, going through security, walking in. Who's on

491
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,680
Speaker 1: the other side of the window. It's Sean Lewis. I

492
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:48,720
Speaker 1: pick up the receiver. I put my hand on the glass.

493
00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 1: He puts his hand on the glass. No, I'm not

494
00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 1: here to bet on you, pal, I'm here to fade

495
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:54,960
Speaker 1: you one last time here in the twenty twenty season,

496
00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 1: give me Buffalo minus four. The Bulls need this win

497
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,680
Speaker 1: to get to Bowl eligibility because they got snowed out

498
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,239
Speaker 1: of a game against Akron that would have been their

499
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 1: chance to get to win number six. They get a

500
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 1: de facto bye week from the superstorm, so they're able

501
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:11,119
Speaker 1: to have some extra time to prepare against a Kent

502
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,960
Speaker 1: State offense that can move the football in MacPlay, though

503
00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:16,880
Speaker 1: Kent is dead last in total defense, giving up four

504
00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,880
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty six point four yards per game, Buffalo

505
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:23,159
Speaker 1: in conference play averaging thirty three points per game. They

506
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,960
Speaker 1: kill teams in time of possession. They are first in

507
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 1: the MAC. Kent is dead last. This is going to

508
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,120
Speaker 1: be a game that they control the tempo, they control

509
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 1: the game flow, and Buffalo's run defense is the key

510
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 1: in this. Mark Wez Cooper is all that the Golden

511
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,159
Speaker 1: Flashes have left at this point in terms of an

512
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 1: offensive engine. Buffalo fifteenth in defensive success rate against the

513
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 1: run nationally. I don't need to see any more. I

514
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 1: think they're going to get enough from their offense. I

515
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,679
Speaker 1: think the bye week strategically is going to have them

516
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,879
Speaker 1: fired up. Every ounce of motivation on the table. They

517
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:55,720
Speaker 1: need this win to get to six and five with

518
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 1: that game off of their schedule. So I'm going to

519
00:22:57,600 --> 00:23:00,360
Speaker 1: take the Bulls here minus four against Kent, a team

520
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 1: that has been maddening the entire season. But I don't

521
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 1: think you're going to see a virtueoso performance from Sean

522
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 1: Lewis in the final game of the season with nothing

523
00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 1: to play for, they can't go bowling, so I'm going

524
00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 1: to go with the bulls. Is this a stay away

525
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,400
Speaker 1: game for you for any reason? Or you're gonna also

526
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 1: come in here and just slam the bet button with me?

527
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:19,200
Speaker 3: Already bet it? I bet it.

528
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 4: I think it opened at like two two and a half,

529
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 4: so I actually have it under a field goal, so

530
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:24,159
Speaker 4: I already bet it.

531
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:26,200
Speaker 3: I think this was actually maybe the first bet I

532
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 3: played all week.

533
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 2: All right, before we continue, as a reminder, the Big

534
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,439
Speaker 2: Bets on Campus podcast is probably presented by bet MGM.

535
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,280
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536
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:39,720
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537
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540
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541
00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 2: West Virginia, Wyoming or Ontario only. Must be twenty one

542
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543
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544
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545
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546
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547
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548
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549
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550
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Speaker 2: one one seven for confidential help in Michigan, twenty hundred

551
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,959
Speaker 2: gambler in Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey or West Virginia one

552
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553
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554
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555
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:38,679
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556
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 2: eight hundred eight nine nine seven eight nine or one

557
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,840
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558
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 2: In Ontario, if you have questions or concerns about your

559
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 2: gambling or someone close to you, please contact Connects Ontario

560
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,120
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561
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:53,400
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562
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:55,880
Speaker 2: Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, Ohio, in Utah

563
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:59,159
Speaker 2: and other states were prohibited. Promotional offers not available in

564
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:00,080
Speaker 2: Nevada and New.

565
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 1: Speaking of teams running out of time, we're running out

566
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:07,440
Speaker 1: of time to hit one of these money line underdog parlays.

567
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 1: It's week thirteen. Don't worry, though, I have a big,

568
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 1: juicy side in mind, so if we do hit this,

569
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,160
Speaker 1: we'll probably wash for the entire season. But why don't

570
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 1: you just dip your toe in, get the audience a

571
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,399
Speaker 1: little bit, nodding and trying to feel the good vibes

572
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 1: before I come in with my Let me check my

573
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 1: notes here, my plus four to fifty money underdog. All right,

574
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 1: go ahead.

575
00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 4: Look, I don't want to put any pressure on you,

576
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 4: but you said it. You have yet to hit a

577
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,399
Speaker 4: single one of these all season, and this.

578
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 3: Is your last chance. Not to brag.

579
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 4: I've hit four of my last five, and I'd like

580
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:42,160
Speaker 4: a little sport here if you would you keep throwing

581
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:45,360
Speaker 4: out these half court shots. I'm taking another layout because

582
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 4: sometimes you just got to keep seeing the ball go in.

583
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:50,920
Speaker 4: I'm taking Tulane plus one point fifteen. Biggest game of

584
00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 4: the week, biggest game other than you know, the game probably,

585
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 4: but biggest game of the G five season to Land

586
00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 4: again Cincinnati Friday Night winner goes to the hosts the

587
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:05,119
Speaker 4: AAC Championship. And I think that's more of the motive.

588
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 4: I mean, obviously they both want to reach the championship,

589
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 4: but this would be Twulane's first ever trip to the

590
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 4: American Championship Game. It hasn't won a conference championship since

591
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:17,120
Speaker 4: winning the Conference USA Championship in nineteen ninety eight under

592
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 4: Tommy Bowden and if you.

593
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 1: Excuse me, Tommy Bowden and also Rich Rod as the

594
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:27,160
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator one of the one of my favorite teams

595
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,439
Speaker 1: of my childhood Shaun King at quarterback. They essentially were

596
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,400
Speaker 1: running rich Rod's offense in its infancy at that point,

597
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 1: up and down the field. Fantastic team. Love that Green

598
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:36,399
Speaker 1: Waves squad.

599
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, so this is the this is the best team

600
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 4: they've had since then. And if you look at kind

601
00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 4: of the blueprint of how both these teams have lost

602
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 4: in the past, UCF was able to beat Tulane by

603
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 4: running it down their throat. They had three hundred and

604
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 4: thirty six yards four touchdowns. On the ground, plumbly torched

605
00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 4: them for one hundred and seveny six yards and two scores. Well,

606
00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 4: Cincinnati can't run the ball at all. There were one

607
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 4: hundred and eighteenth in the country and rushing success. They've

608
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 4: managed over one hundred yards against Temple because everyone does,

609
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 4: but they averaged just fifty two yards rushing in the

610
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 4: last three games before that. Well, last week, Ben Bryant

611
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 4: hurt his foot and he didn't play in the whole

612
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:20,000
Speaker 4: second half. So a Cincinnati team that can't run the

613
00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:24,119
Speaker 4: ball well will either have a hobbled Ben Bryant or

614
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 4: a freshman in Evan Brader making his first start.

615
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:29,399
Speaker 3: And well, yes, he's highly touted.

616
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,400
Speaker 4: I think there's a reason he hasn't played all season,

617
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:36,360
Speaker 4: despite Ben Bryant not looking, you know, like a world beater,

618
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 4: and it's his first start in the biggest game of

619
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:42,680
Speaker 4: the year. So I kind of liked those odds either

620
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 4: way against a very very good two lane defense. And

621
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:49,080
Speaker 4: while since that he has good defense numbers like we'd expect,

622
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 4: and they're good defense, I'm not going to sit here

623
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 4: and say they're not, but they've definitely padded their stats

624
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 4: against the really bad teams. You know. UCF put up

625
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,680
Speaker 4: five hundred and five yards against them, ran all over

626
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 4: them for two hundred and fifty yards. ECU put a

627
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,480
Speaker 4: four hundred and fifty four also ran the ball for

628
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,400
Speaker 4: over five yards per carry. And the area the Bearcats

629
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 4: have struggled the most is defending explosiveness. Well, Tulane has

630
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 4: human explosive play in taij Spears. He's averaging six point

631
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 4: four yards per carry twelve touchdowns. Michael Pratt is also

632
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:24,680
Speaker 4: super sneaky athletic. He's got nine rushing touchdowns to go

633
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 4: along with twenty passing scores just four picks. The Tulane

634
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 4: and then the Green Wave don't give up big plays

635
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 4: at all. They're one of the best in the country

636
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:36,800
Speaker 4: at limiting exposive this They're really good at defending finishing drives.

637
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 4: So for me, I think this is a true, true

638
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 4: coin flip game.

639
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 3: I think Tulane is better.

640
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 4: I think I got on a neutral field, I would

641
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 4: make Tulane like minus one, So what's it two and

642
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 4: a half three at Cincinnati. I still think that's a

643
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 4: good enough price that I'll take Tulane plus fifteen.

644
00:28:57,640 --> 00:28:58,720
Speaker 3: I think they win this game.

645
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 1: I mean the Green Wave coming off what was it,

646
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 1: fifty nine points last week, so they couldn't be feeling

647
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 1: better about their offense. And I understand that this is

648
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 1: kind of uncharted territory for them this late in the season,

649
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 1: being able to punch a ticket to a conference championship game.

650
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 1: But I don't want to get too emotionally involved here

651
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,680
Speaker 1: because Fickle, to me, can take a team that could

652
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:20,800
Speaker 1: be better and then kind of play down to his

653
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 1: competition a little bit. He gets so conservative at times

654
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 1: because if he does go with Prater, what he needs

655
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 1: to do is kind of allow him to use his

656
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 1: athleticism to really put the defense in difficult positions in

657
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 1: terms of the RPO game. He's not going to do that.

658
00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 1: I think he'll get conservative.

659
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 3: We saw Plumbley, we saw Plumby doings well yep.

660
00:29:41,400 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 1: So for that reason, I like the two lane play.

661
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 1: I'm hopeful that this isn't just a two lane team

662
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 1: that beat up on everyone that they could beat and

663
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 1: then when they finally got those opportunities against the AAC heavyweights,

664
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 1: they're a little bit outclassed. I hope that you're right,

665
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 1: but I can't be too judgmental because as I mentioned

666
00:29:57,320 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 1: my money line contribution this week plus four to fifty.

667
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw out some stats. So the team that's

668
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 1: prohibitively favored here gave up forty points to a program

669
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:11,400
Speaker 1: that is not going bowling last week. Their defense is

670
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty first nationally and giving up explosive plays.

671
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 1: Of course, I am referring to James Madison as they

672
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 1: are playing Coastal Carolina. Coastal plus four to fifty. They

673
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 1: haven't had a number this good on the shots in

674
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 1: years under Jamie Chadwell. I think he's a great coach.

675
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 1: He had an extra week to prepare. I understand that

676
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 1: they played two quarterbacks in their last game, but that

677
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 1: cancelation against Uva gives them that added time to cook

678
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 1: up a really good game plan in this spot and

679
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 1: to keep their season, which they already have nine wins.

680
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 1: Let's get to ten wins. They scored twenty six points,

681
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 1: truly manufact ecturing points against Southern Miss. We hit on

682
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 1: Southern Miss for like half of this podcast this week.

683
00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 1: They have a very good defense. I think they get

684
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 1: it done in this spot against the James Madison team

685
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:58,880
Speaker 1: that has been up and down. They've been really good

686
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 1: against crappy teams, and they kind of imploded defensively against

687
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 1: teams with a pulse. I think Coastal runs were over

688
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:06,320
Speaker 1: two hundred yards in this game. I think they'll be

689
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 1: in it for four quarters. Plus four to fifty I

690
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 1: think is way out of whack for what it should be.

691
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 1: If if this was under three to one, probably would

692
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 1: have followed your lead and gone with a short money

693
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 1: line underdog. But I'm swinging for the fences here because

694
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 1: I think this is absolute, crazy disrespect for a Coastal

695
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 1: team that has been the class of the sun Belt

696
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 1: at least the Sunbelt East for years.

697
00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 3: Now.

698
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:29,960
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on the shots at plus four

699
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 1: to fifty?

700
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, I would say I like that a little more

701
00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 4: after last week because I actually laid the big number

702
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 4: with James Madison. I think it was seven and a

703
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 4: half maybe last week. And like you said, for a

704
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 4: team that coming into it had the best run defense

705
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 4: in the country, you know from a success rate standpoint,

706
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 4: they let Georgia State we just talked about, has been bad.

707
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 3: They let him run all over them. I was concerned with.

708
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 4: Them ount of I mean thor the State should have

709
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 4: won that game, like they they absolutely torched them on

710
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 4: the ground, So I'm that did concern me for this

711
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 4: James Mass a team that supposedly stud defense did not

712
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 4: as like you said, and against the better teams they've

713
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 4: kind of fallen apart.

714
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 3: I don't hate it, all.

715
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 1: Right, Ianella. You pair those two together plus ten fifty

716
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 1: over at bet MGM, so you're gonna want to run

717
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 1: over and grab that before all this money comes in

718
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 1: detail US obviously throughout this season. But I gotta say

719
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 1: I feel good about this one. I felt good about

720
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 1: Yukon last week. They were on the doorstep against Army

721
00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 1: three two or three times and came away with three

722
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:29,920
Speaker 1: points in the game where they ran up and down

723
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 1: the field. They had no problem running between the twenties

724
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 1: against Army. That was very frustrating. All right, let me

725
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 1: run through our entire slate, our best bets. Ianello likes

726
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 1: Louisiana minus five and a half against Texas State. I

727
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:44,920
Speaker 1: am on Southern Miss laying three at Louisiana Monroe for

728
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 1: our round robin. Ianello is throwing in Marshall minus six.

729
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:50,920
Speaker 1: He's also doubling down on Southern Miss minus three for

730
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 1: my round robin. Additions BYU minus six and a half

731
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 1: playing at the Farm against Stanford Troy, Arkansas State under

732
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 1: forty six and a half, and Buffalo minus four against

733
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:02,760
Speaker 1: kent hoping to get to Bowl eligibility with their sixth

734
00:33:02,840 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 1: win of the season, and our money line underdog parlay

735
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 1: Coast of Carolina plus four to fifty as well as

736
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 1: two lane plus one ten for a juicy plus ten

737
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 1: fifty payouts on the parlay. All right, any final thoughts

738
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 1: as we close out Week thirteen cutting room floor picks

739
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 1: bonus picks. It's been a profitable bonus section for US.

740
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:23,000
Speaker 3: I have two.

741
00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:27,520
Speaker 4: I like Western Kentucky laying seven against Florida Atlantic. Western

742
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 4: Kentucky still has an outside shot to reach the Conference

743
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 4: USA title game for a rematch. If North Texas were

744
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:35,240
Speaker 4: to slip up against Rice, I don't think they will,

745
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 4: but if they were, Western Kentucky still at least has

746
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 4: something to play for. Florida Atlantic's pass defense's garbage, So

747
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 4: I think the Hilltoppers win.

748
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 3: That one, and then I'll be honest.

749
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 4: I listened to Stucky and Collins Weekly recap yesterday and

750
00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 4: we had a call from Minor Nation saying to lay

751
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 4: it to take the points plus seventeen and a half

752
00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 4: against UTSA because they're already locked into the Conference USA

753
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 4: title game and they're not going to care. And you

754
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 4: TEP won the game last year and now they're getting

755
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 4: seventeen and a half. And I loved everything.

756
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 3: He said.

757
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 4: If you give me a gambling tip, I'm going to

758
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 4: take it one hundred out of a hundred times because

759
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:12,359
Speaker 4: I can't afford to be wrong.

760
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:14,560
Speaker 3: And I loved it. So I'm going to take you

761
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,320
Speaker 3: tip blust the points because that card he commitced me.

762
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 3: I'll be honest. He convinced me. I love my oron Nation,

763
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 3: I love meet Me. Carr was convincing. I'll give you that.

764
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 1: It's been my distinct pleasure to fill in for Stucky

765
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 1: on the Maction Live Show throughout the week. This is

766
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 1: my third week hosting and I'm undefeated in terms of

767
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 1: my picks, so feeling myself a little bit. Not a

768
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:39,800
Speaker 1: big deal, not a big deal. I think it's interesting.

769
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 1: It's probably if you had a trace back where this

770
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:43,960
Speaker 1: bet comes from. For me, it's the fact that we

771
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 1: have the World Cup here at this point, and I

772
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 1: love looking through the exotics on the World Cup and

773
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,800
Speaker 1: one that gets placed a lot is that double result.

774
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 1: So what your betting is who's winning at halftime after

775
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 1: forty five minutes, who wins the match? And you can

776
00:34:58,239 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 1: you know, mix and match. You can have a team

777
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 1: going why a wire, you can have teams tied, you

778
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 1: can flip it from one team giving up the lead

779
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:06,880
Speaker 1: in the second half. I'm going to go with a

780
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 1: maction play. If you're listening to this on Tuesday afternoon,

781
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:13,360
Speaker 1: there's still time bowling Green to lead at halftime against

782
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 1: Ohio and then Ohio to win the game at plus

783
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 1: five eighty, And I'm going to throw out the reasons why.

784
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,239
Speaker 1: I actually think there's a pretty strong argument that could

785
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 1: be made. Let's talk about Ohio quarterback Curtis Rourke. The

786
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:27,359
Speaker 1: Maple Missiles banged up. It looks like he's fifty to fifty.

787
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 1: If he plays, he's going to be in a knee brace.

788
00:35:29,440 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 1: It's going to limit how dynamic they are offensively. He's

789
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:34,399
Speaker 1: the guy who makes it happen. If he doesn't play,

790
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 1: They're going with CJ. Harris, who is a three star

791
00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:40,120
Speaker 1: backup quarterback making his first college start. He's definitely an

792
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 1: added rushing element. He had a thirty eight yards in

793
00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 1: relief of Rourke last week. But in terms of game plan,

794
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 1: I think they'll go pretty conservative. They'll just give it

795
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:49,480
Speaker 1: to Bangura and try to run, run, run, run, run,

796
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 1: which I think will give the Falcons a chance to

797
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:54,320
Speaker 1: grab an early lead. But here's why I really like

798
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 1: this bet. The coaching staffs in this game clearly go

799
00:35:57,960 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: in two different directions when they get to the locker

800
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:02,720
Speaker 1: room time. Ohio in the second half this season averaging

801
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 1: seventeen points per game, that's eighteenth nationally, bowling green in

802
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 1: the second half one hundred and fifteenth nationally at less

803
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:11,720
Speaker 1: than nine points per game in the final thirty minutes.

804
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:13,800
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go ahead with the bobs there to

805
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:16,399
Speaker 1: have it come from behind victory at almost six to one.

806
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 1: You can check it out. I think I saw it

807
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 1: a plus five seventy five over at bet MGM. So

808
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:22,760
Speaker 1: that's my exotic I'm thrown out here in week thirteen.

809
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:24,440
Speaker 1: Is that a little too rich for your bludder? Is

810
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 1: that the right kind of crazy?

811
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:28,360
Speaker 4: Everything about match is the right time you. If you

812
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:30,200
Speaker 4: said this about any of the conference, I would have

813
00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:32,759
Speaker 4: just tuned out. Let's get this is mach This is

814
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:34,240
Speaker 4: the last maction let's get crazy.

815
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:37,200
Speaker 3: Max just so holds the man.

816
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 1: All right. For Mike Ianello on Mike Calvary's this has

817
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:46,399
Speaker 1: been the group of five deep dive under the Big

818
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 1: Bets on campus banner all through our week thirteen picks

819
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 1: or a minor to our audience that there's all kinds

820
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 1: of programming notes for your NFL content this week over

821
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast. All of it is going

822
00:36:58,239 --> 00:36:59,800
Speaker 1: to be hitting your podcast feed by two to a

823
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:03,640
Speaker 1: Wednesday morning, so be sure to check in for that podcast.

824
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:08,319
Speaker 1: Wonderfulness with Stucky and Raybon. Raybon in particular is having

825
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:10,759
Speaker 1: an incredible year. They're making graphic design cards, thrown it

826
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 1: up on social media. Got to celebrate that guy. He's

827
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:16,360
Speaker 1: been absolutely on fire. As for our live team, Colin

828
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:18,799
Speaker 1: Stucky and Brett McMurphy, they'll be back for the live

829
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 1: show BBOC on Saturday, breaking down the final college football

830
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:25,640
Speaker 1: regular season Saturday of the entire season, helping you stay

831
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 1: in the black. And that's it. I mean, we tried

832
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:29,799
Speaker 1: to give you as much as we could. We try

833
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,440
Speaker 1: to front load the feast week menu. Hopefully you can

834
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:35,439
Speaker 1: get listen to all of that before you're forced into

835
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 1: the corner talking to that ants or you know father

836
00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:40,760
Speaker 1: in law that you just can't avoid during the holiday season.

837
00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:43,320
Speaker 1: So make sure to have a little anecdotal information you

838
00:37:43,360 --> 00:37:45,840
Speaker 1: can pepper in some success rate, and.

839
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:48,200
Speaker 4: Make sure tell your uncles and aunts to download podcast

840
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:51,360
Speaker 4: and subscribe unsubscribed, subscribe again, like it, and listen to

841
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 4: the G five Deep Dive.

842
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:54,839
Speaker 1: As stuck, he says, tell a friend, tell an enemy.

843
00:37:55,040 --> 00:37:56,879
Speaker 1: Could be a lot of enemies during the holiday season,

844
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:58,720
Speaker 1: so make sure to throw that out there to anyone

845
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 1: who will listen. Preciate our audience so much more thankful

846
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:04,800
Speaker 1: for you. Have a great Turkey Day and enjoy college

847
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 1: football here in Week thirteen.