WEBVTT - China Eastern Crash May Not Suggest Broader Boeing Issue

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube

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<v Speaker 1>search Bloomberg clovel News. We are keeping a watch on

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<v Speaker 1>shares of Boeing because we have seen them trading lower,

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<v Speaker 1>definitely off there at worst levels of the session, but

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<v Speaker 1>still done about four and a half percent. This is

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<v Speaker 1>the company faces a new crisis after a seven thirty

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<v Speaker 1>seven jet fell out of the sky and shina hundred

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<v Speaker 1>thirty two people on board, renewing concerns over that best

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<v Speaker 1>selling family of planes for the company, and as we mentioned,

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<v Speaker 1>sending the shares tumbling. I mean, this is something that

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<v Speaker 1>everybody's been talking about that certainly is George Ferguson is

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<v Speaker 1>senior aerospace, defense and airlines analysts with Bloomberg and Tell Legends.

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<v Speaker 1>George joins us on the phone from New Jersey. George,

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<v Speaker 1>good to have you with us. Uh, some obviously a

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<v Speaker 1>tragedy here. Um, explain though, why you think that the

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<v Speaker 1>shares are reacting this way? Because I gotta tell you

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<v Speaker 1>the seven thirty seven from what I've read, hundred n

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<v Speaker 1>this is the next generation, the one that preceded the

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<v Speaker 1>seven thirty seven Max, so completely different version of the

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<v Speaker 1>seven thirty seven. Uh, this is among the safest airplanes

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<v Speaker 1>out there. Yeah, agreed, Thanks thanks for having me on

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<v Speaker 1>and ye yeah, well we're very you know, we're very

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<v Speaker 1>mindful the fact that this is a human tragedy. Sorry

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<v Speaker 1>for the lives that were lost. Here. The airplane, the

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<v Speaker 1>seven hundred is very safe airplane. You know. One of

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<v Speaker 1>the ways we think about that is that there's been

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<v Speaker 1>over five thousand of those airplanes built, the seven thirty

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<v Speaker 1>seven Dash eight hundred specific variants, and um, there's still

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<v Speaker 1>in service five park. I would imagine a bunch of

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<v Speaker 1>them would come back actually into service as we come

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<v Speaker 1>out of the pandemic. Um. You know, it's really been.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the mainstay of a lot of fleets around the world.

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<v Speaker 1>We see airlines like Ryanair operating a lot of those

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<v Speaker 1>seven thirty seven eight hundreds at twenty plus years of age.

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<v Speaker 1>This particular airplane was about six point eight years old

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<v Speaker 1>from the data we see, which is a fairly young airplane.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know, there are some seven hundreds that have

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<v Speaker 1>been flying in fleets for twenty five years. So we

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<v Speaker 1>when we look at that, we really think, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>this doesn't it doesn't look to be a a Boeing

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<v Speaker 1>systemic kind of manufacturing problem. You know, there's always a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of things that can create a crash. You can

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<v Speaker 1>have mechanical problems, you know, maintenance issues, you can have

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<v Speaker 1>pilot air sadly, and you know that happens everywhere around

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<v Speaker 1>the world that get pilots sometimes just don't make the

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<v Speaker 1>right decisions, many kind of manufacturing defects. But in this case,

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<v Speaker 1>it's been in service too long, the fleet has been

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<v Speaker 1>too successful too much in the air. We really think

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<v Speaker 1>it's probably probably something more discreetly related to that airplane.

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<v Speaker 1>So how quickly do we probably find out exactly what happened?

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<v Speaker 1>I mean between the black box and other things. How

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<v Speaker 1>how quickly would you expect to get more information that

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<v Speaker 1>maybe clarifies exactly what happened. I mean, I think we'll

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<v Speaker 1>start to see information in a couple of days. I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think it takes a long period of time to

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<v Speaker 1>start to get that information. UM. I would expect you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Bowling to go there and be on site as well,

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<v Speaker 1>to be involved, and hope, you know, the Chinese regulators

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<v Speaker 1>I think would allow that. And um, you know, I

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<v Speaker 1>think everybody it may become very obvious pretty quickly when

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<v Speaker 1>they get to the black box and the scene. UM,

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<v Speaker 1>it may not, but again I think in a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of days you'd know. To us. The bigger challenge right

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<v Speaker 1>here is, Um, Bowling already has a bit. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>Bowling's Max isn't allowed to fly in China's aid. Bowing

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<v Speaker 1>has a very delicate relationship with China right now, but

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<v Speaker 1>the Max can't fly in China and Russia. UM, And

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<v Speaker 1>so know that they're they need to be you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's an important market for them, and so that they'll

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<v Speaker 1>I think be very cooperative and be on there, willing

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<v Speaker 1>to be on the ground and help the Chinese figure

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<v Speaker 1>out what has happened. Here because they don't want this,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, they don't want this to become an issue

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<v Speaker 1>about the airplane and the mains action. And I wonder

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<v Speaker 1>what it means for Boeing as a company. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>in the wake of the seven thirty seven Max tragedy

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<v Speaker 1>where two planes went down in a very short period

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<v Speaker 1>of time, the subsequent grounding of those seven thirty seven

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<v Speaker 1>Max aircraft, including still in China. When when a lay

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<v Speaker 1>person sees that a seven thirty seven went down and

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't understand the nuance, is that the type of issue

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<v Speaker 1>that that could affect the way that people make decisions

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<v Speaker 1>about how they travel and what they travel on. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think short term potentially, I'm actually a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit surprised at the even the market losing the

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<v Speaker 1>US today and some of the people I've talked to

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<v Speaker 1>who don't realize that the Max are two different, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>two different different airplanes. So I think it's important what

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<v Speaker 1>we find over time is that, um, it's stages, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's in early days it's very front of

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<v Speaker 1>mine and then you know, in a couple of weeks

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<v Speaker 1>in a fade away. But again, if you're bowing, you

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<v Speaker 1>prefer never to have these these kind of you can't

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<v Speaker 1>prevent them, but you prefer not to have. Hey, George,

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<v Speaker 1>bigger picture if we just you know, step back for

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<v Speaker 1>a second and I think about what's going on with

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<v Speaker 1>the Russian invasion war in Ukraine, and we keep seeing,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, what China will say or not say about

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<v Speaker 1>what's going on, what the US will say or not

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<v Speaker 1>say about what's going on, and the moves that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>various NATO nations, including the US, are are taking to

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<v Speaker 1>support Ukraine. It's just a reminder how complicated this is.

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<v Speaker 1>And you just talked about Boeing and how important that

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese market is. Just give us some context why companies

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<v Speaker 1>may make some moves, particularly with Russia, but you know,

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<v Speaker 1>are hesitant to some extent because of a market like China.

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<v Speaker 1>It's it's crucial to Boeing's growth going forward. And just

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<v Speaker 1>got about forty seconds. Yeah, totally. You know, before the pandemic,

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<v Speaker 1>China was probably more than ten airplanes a month of

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<v Speaker 1>the seven thirty seven. That's why there's potting them flying there.

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<v Speaker 1>Bowing wants to go to thirty one. Seven thirty seven's

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<v Speaker 1>a month, and I didn't think they can sustain it

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<v Speaker 1>unless they get China to reaccept the max. And it's

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<v Speaker 1>probably worth eight airplanes a month out of thirty one.

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<v Speaker 1>So you know, what's that something between twenty five and

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<v Speaker 1>it's in a very important market. It's massive, and it

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<v Speaker 1>just reminds us how complicated all of this is and

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<v Speaker 1>how troubling. UM, George, thank you so much, really appreciate

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<v Speaker 1>the analysis. George Ferguson joining us on the phone in

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<v Speaker 1>New Jersey. He's senior Aerospace, Defense and Airlines analyst for

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Intelligence. That's our in house group of analysts. And

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<v Speaker 1>just a reminder, we mentioned BOKU shares are down just

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<v Speaker 1>down about three percent at their lows, they were down

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<v Speaker 1>to more than six percent. Surprising to see moves like this,

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<v Speaker 1>but as George said, there's a lot of nuance here. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and just remember it's an overall downward market. But Boeing

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<v Speaker 1>definitely reacting to that news. This is Bloomberg, Great you,

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So among the

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<v Speaker 1>COVID headlines on our radar, the B A two subvariant

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<v Speaker 1>of O Macron driving up cases in Europe now accounts

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<v Speaker 1>for about infections here in the United States, where indoor

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<v Speaker 1>mask and vaccine requirements have largely been rolled back. That

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<v Speaker 1>is true even in our office space. The glass dividers,

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<v Speaker 1>the plastic dividers, they came down, they did. I did

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<v Speaker 1>go to Broadway this weekend for the first time since

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic and they had masking in effect. Vaccination required

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<v Speaker 1>as well. We had to show our vaccine but it

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<v Speaker 1>was packed. It was Yeah, it was totally packed. But

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<v Speaker 1>we all wear masks, right, So that's kind of our

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<v Speaker 1>new reality, all right. So that's going on Mainland China,

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<v Speaker 1>Shanghai reporting a record number of new cases after authorities

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<v Speaker 1>expanded a mass testing program, and Dr Anthony Faucci tim

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<v Speaker 1>saying a likely rise in US COVID nineteen cases probably

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<v Speaker 1>will not amount to a full scale surge or prompt

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<v Speaker 1>renewal of widespread restriction. So that's today's environment. Also thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about what all this means for healthcare workers. That's why

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<v Speaker 1>we have a great voice. Dr Imont abuse Aide, the

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<v Speaker 1>co founder and CEO of Incredible Health. It's a marketplace

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<v Speaker 1>for connecting hospitals to nursing talent for nurses and hospitals

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<v Speaker 1>to really find one another to actually work. So Dr

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<v Speaker 1>Abuzaide has some great insight into how these hospitals are doing. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>she joins us on the phone from San Francisco. Dr Opposide,

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<v Speaker 1>how are you. I'm doing well. Thank you so much

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<v Speaker 1>for having me today. Yeah, it's good to have you

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<v Speaker 1>back with us. Um Okay, I want to start with

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<v Speaker 1>with with burnout here from from healthcare workers, because Carol

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<v Speaker 1>went over all the headlines we've all been thinking about

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<v Speaker 1>COVID in the different places where we are. What do

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<v Speaker 1>you see on Incredible health platform thanks to a survey

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<v Speaker 1>that you did in terms of of of burnout for

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<v Speaker 1>nurses and and how much are how concerned are you

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<v Speaker 1>about it? Yeah? So we just launched our third annual

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<v Speaker 1>State of Nursing Report and we you know, it includes

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<v Speaker 1>data from tem per cent at US nurses or four

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<v Speaker 1>hundred thousand nurses. So what we're seeing is that over

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<v Speaker 1>the next twelve months, about one third of nurses UH

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<v Speaker 1>plans to quit their jobs and the number one reasons

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<v Speaker 1>it is burnout and there high stress environment. Of nurses

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<v Speaker 1>are citing burnout as the number as the reason why

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<v Speaker 1>they want to leave their current roles. So I am curious,

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<v Speaker 1>then are they leaving because they just had it and

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<v Speaker 1>they're stopping work completely, or they also because it's a

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<v Speaker 1>tight labor market they know they can leave and they

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<v Speaker 1>can find other jobs. It's actually both. So we definitely

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<v Speaker 1>have a percent of nurses roughly about that are thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about permanently leaving the professional together. Uh. You know, that's

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<v Speaker 1>of course going to exacerbate our ongoing nursing shortage that

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<v Speaker 1>we're that we've been facing even before COVID. Uh. And

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<v Speaker 1>then but then the majority really are just looking for

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<v Speaker 1>a different role within nursing that will you know, hopefully

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<v Speaker 1>be less stressful, have better staffing, and therefore they won't

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<v Speaker 1>get overworked as much. In some ways, that is a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit wishful thinking, um, because every hospital right that

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<v Speaker 1>we work with, at least right now is understaffed and

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<v Speaker 1>is um you know those nurses are are are working

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<v Speaker 1>over time as well. UM. But you know, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>sometimes you think the grass is green. Are right? Incredible too,

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<v Speaker 1>because we tie back to what we heard from FED

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<v Speaker 1>chair J Powell about the labor shortage and the labor

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<v Speaker 1>crunch and the idea of workforce participations still not to

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<v Speaker 1>levels Carol where they were before the pandemic. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think to myself, Okay, it's it's it's it's every single

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<v Speaker 1>industry here. And if healthcare workers continue to be overburdened,

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<v Speaker 1>even if hospitals aren't overflowing right now, then that's a

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<v Speaker 1>huge issue for next time. Hospitals do take on a

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<v Speaker 1>large number of people. Yeah, exactly, so what does that mean?

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<v Speaker 1>So what that means that what I mean, what we're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing on the hospital side is that actually, yeah, patients

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<v Speaker 1>demand continues to increase, right um in COVID of course

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<v Speaker 1>creates more patient numbers, but there's also many patients that

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<v Speaker 1>have delayed care throughout the last two years of the pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>And so and then many of the hospital and health

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<v Speaker 1>systems that we work with are expanding. They're adding more

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<v Speaker 1>locations and more units and so all that requires more staff. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>Are they paying more? Are they paying more for the

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<v Speaker 1>workers that they can get? They are. Yes. We have

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<v Speaker 1>seen a hundred and increase in in offering up sign

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<v Speaker 1>on bonuses when it comes to nurse compensation. UM. We've

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<v Speaker 1>also seen in you know, in the state of Texas alone,

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<v Speaker 1>sign on bonuses have doubled in terms of the amount

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<v Speaker 1>um from fifty five eight hundred to ten thousand, seven

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<v Speaker 1>hundred dollars average being the sign on bonus in the

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<v Speaker 1>state of Texas UM and then the state of Florida

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<v Speaker 1>has had the biggest increase in in in uh in

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<v Speaker 1>in employers offering sign on bonuses. So we are definitely

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<v Speaker 1>seeing compensation increase. You know, it worries me because I

0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:37.000
<v Speaker 1>feel like this is a supply and demand story that

0:11:37.080 --> 0:11:39.600
<v Speaker 1>the demand is only get increase for nursing care as

0:11:40.000 --> 0:11:42.520
<v Speaker 1>we all get older, lived longer, and then the supply

0:11:42.720 --> 0:11:45.320
<v Speaker 1>is not there, So you do wonder about what that

0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:49.680
<v Speaker 1>squeeze will mean UM going forward, we get very briefly

0:11:49.760 --> 0:11:51.600
<v Speaker 1>dr abbusated, how much higher do you see wages going

0:11:51.640 --> 0:11:55.079
<v Speaker 1>in the next year? Very briefly, over the next twenty

0:11:55.120 --> 0:11:58.200
<v Speaker 1>four months, we definitely predict wage inflation going up at

0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:01.080
<v Speaker 1>least another five to seven percent. That's a lot and

0:12:01.080 --> 0:12:03.680
<v Speaker 1>that we'll see play out certainly in those inflationary numbers.

0:12:04.000 --> 0:12:07.520
<v Speaker 1>Drymon Aboz, thank you so much, co founder CEO. She

0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:10.040
<v Speaker 1>is of incredible health once again joining us on the

0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:12.440
<v Speaker 1>phone from San Francisco. I mean, that's the reality of

0:12:12.480 --> 0:12:16.040
<v Speaker 1>the job market. The healthcare situation I think is certainly special,

0:12:16.320 --> 0:12:19.040
<v Speaker 1>not an anomaly, in that I think there are people,

0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:20.880
<v Speaker 1>as she just said, that are just so burned out

0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:23.280
<v Speaker 1>post pandemic. Yeah, they go and switch careers as a

0:12:23.280 --> 0:12:25.320
<v Speaker 1>result of what happened over the last two years. Well,

0:12:25.320 --> 0:12:28.080
<v Speaker 1>and that survey also talks about verbal and physical assault

0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:29.960
<v Speaker 1>by a patient or a member of a patient's family.

0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:33.360
<v Speaker 1>To that a lot of members see this is Bloomberg Radio.

0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:37.160
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and

0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:42.119
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, fascinating

0:12:42.120 --> 0:12:45.560
<v Speaker 1>story online at Bloomberg Business Week about Silicon Valley's wealthiest

0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:48.840
<v Speaker 1>Russian who built his wealth making lucrative pets on a

0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:52.520
<v Speaker 1>few names that you know Airbnb, Ali Baba, Twitter, Facebook,

0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:55.520
<v Speaker 1>and a lot more. He Now, though Tim is distancing

0:12:55.559 --> 0:12:58.280
<v Speaker 1>himself from President Putin, we're talking about none other than

0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:01.760
<v Speaker 1>Urie Milner. You may know from firms such as Digital

0:13:01.760 --> 0:13:06.120
<v Speaker 1>Sky Technology is also known as DST. Max Chafkin, his

0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:08.720
<v Speaker 1>features editor at Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us on

0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:11.320
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Queens, New York. The story by the Way,

0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:13.880
<v Speaker 1>by Sarah McBride. It's now on the Bloomberg terminal. You

0:13:13.880 --> 0:13:16.360
<v Speaker 1>can also read it at Bloomberg dot com. Slash business

0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:19.760
<v Speaker 1>Week also joining us as Joel Weber editor at Bloomberg

0:13:19.800 --> 0:13:22.160
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. He's with us right now in the Bloomberg

0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:26.680
<v Speaker 1>Interactive Broker's studio, Joel. Uh. Jurie Milner a name very

0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:31.040
<v Speaker 1>familiar to people across Silicon Valley. Uh. He's been involved

0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:35.000
<v Speaker 1>in some of the most as Carol mentioned, the names

0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:39.880
<v Speaker 1>that uh, many people are familiar with if they use smartphones. Uh, Airbnb,

0:13:40.480 --> 0:13:44.600
<v Speaker 1>Facebook and more. Living under a rock, Yeah, exactly who

0:13:44.679 --> 0:13:51.480
<v Speaker 1>is he? Uh? Really prominent venture capital uh and has

0:13:51.520 --> 0:13:54.800
<v Speaker 1>long been, as you mentioned, involved in a lot of

0:13:55.200 --> 0:13:57.400
<v Speaker 1>startups that have gone on and had great success, which

0:13:57.440 --> 0:14:02.680
<v Speaker 1>obviously made him very wealthy. Um, the wealthiest Russian in

0:14:02.840 --> 0:14:06.880
<v Speaker 1>Silicon Valley actually, and obviously you know, all things Russia

0:14:06.960 --> 0:14:09.640
<v Speaker 1>right now are of great interest. And so when Sarah

0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:13.400
<v Speaker 1>reached out and said, hey, um, I'm talking to to Uri,

0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:16.920
<v Speaker 1>we said, what's he's saying? And that's for hours. Yeah,

0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:19.840
<v Speaker 1>We've got a lot of great access and and and

0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:23.000
<v Speaker 1>the and Max who edited the story, I think did

0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:26.480
<v Speaker 1>a great job pointing out you know this, this risk

0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:29.760
<v Speaker 1>for for Urie and all this, and how quick he

0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:33.120
<v Speaker 1>is to attempt to put some distance between he imputin,

0:14:33.480 --> 0:14:37.560
<v Speaker 1>although not maybe as much distance as one would think. So, so, Max,

0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:40.280
<v Speaker 1>what what jumped out to you and her reporting? Yeah,

0:14:40.320 --> 0:14:42.960
<v Speaker 1>I mean what's interesting about Yuri? So it's it's not

0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:45.880
<v Speaker 1>just that Youuri Milner is this really important venture capitalist

0:14:46.040 --> 0:14:47.680
<v Speaker 1>um you know, you know, he's like right up there

0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:49.960
<v Speaker 1>with like, say, you think about the most important bcs

0:14:49.960 --> 0:14:52.760
<v Speaker 1>in the last twenty years. It's like Mark and Rees

0:14:52.880 --> 0:14:56.560
<v Speaker 1>and Peter Keel uh and probably you're a Milner UM

0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:59.240
<v Speaker 1>and and and what. But it's not just that he's

0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:01.240
<v Speaker 1>um made a lot of money and made a lot

0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:03.880
<v Speaker 1>of investments in companies you've heard of. It's that he's

0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:06.560
<v Speaker 1>kind of put himself at the center of Silicon Valley.

0:15:06.600 --> 0:15:10.280
<v Speaker 1>You know. He bought this UM hundred million dollar house

0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:12.480
<v Speaker 1>UM in Los Altos, you know, which is really hard

0:15:12.480 --> 0:15:16.480
<v Speaker 1>of Silicon Valley has you know, fun spent hundreds of

0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:20.240
<v Speaker 1>millions of dollars funding sort of tech focused philanthropy. You know,

0:15:20.320 --> 0:15:23.320
<v Speaker 1>his events have been sort of hot tickets, not just

0:15:23.680 --> 0:15:26.280
<v Speaker 1>among among tech types but also in Hollywood and so

0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:30.040
<v Speaker 1>but of course, basically the seed funding here, as Joel

0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:34.640
<v Speaker 1>is alluding to, um comes from uh, basically sources connected

0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:37.560
<v Speaker 1>to to the Kremlin. So um, there there was some

0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:41.200
<v Speaker 1>money early on from Alisher Usmanoff, who is a sort

0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:45.120
<v Speaker 1>of a metals magnet, basically a pro Putin oligar. Another

0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:48.320
<v Speaker 1>investment in Twitter. There was money from you know, Russian

0:15:48.360 --> 0:15:51.280
<v Speaker 1>state controlled bank BT beats UM and and and the

0:15:51.640 --> 0:15:54.600
<v Speaker 1>thing that's pretty interesting here is Milner has spent as

0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:59.040
<v Speaker 1>as he told Sarah, basically years trying to put some

0:15:59.200 --> 0:16:03.240
<v Speaker 1>distance between himself and the Kremlin. And and in fact,

0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:06.000
<v Speaker 1>you know, he shared actually a lot of sort of

0:16:06.000 --> 0:16:09.600
<v Speaker 1>new information. I mean, he hasn't seen Uzmanoff in five years,

0:16:09.640 --> 0:16:12.040
<v Speaker 1>he hasn't been to Russian eight years. Um. So so

0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:15.000
<v Speaker 1>he's basically making the case like, look, yes, um, there

0:16:15.120 --> 0:16:18.120
<v Speaker 1>is a lot of money that I had early on

0:16:18.160 --> 0:16:20.840
<v Speaker 1>that was connected to to Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin.

0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:23.360
<v Speaker 1>But it's been a very long time since I've taken

0:16:23.400 --> 0:16:25.440
<v Speaker 1>any money from those guys. And really, you know what,

0:16:25.680 --> 0:16:27.560
<v Speaker 1>this has nothing to do with me. What I did

0:16:27.560 --> 0:16:29.920
<v Speaker 1>find so interesting, Max, are uh the number of people

0:16:29.960 --> 0:16:32.280
<v Speaker 1>who like came to bat for him. You mentioned, uh,

0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:34.640
<v Speaker 1>some of the folks who he you know, when you

0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:36.800
<v Speaker 1>think of the most important Silicon Valley venture capitalist, right

0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:39.480
<v Speaker 1>Peter Tielmark and Trees uh and by the way, all

0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:42.640
<v Speaker 1>three of them involved in early relatively early in Facebook.

0:16:43.040 --> 0:16:44.920
<v Speaker 1>So that'ser Ata least that's something there too. But who

0:16:44.960 --> 0:16:46.520
<v Speaker 1>who did Sarah speak to you that really went to

0:16:46.560 --> 0:16:50.080
<v Speaker 1>bat for for euriamil there? Yeah, I mean there's um.

0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:53.920
<v Speaker 1>You know, the story has comments from Ryan Peterson, the

0:16:53.920 --> 0:16:56.920
<v Speaker 1>the CEO of Flex Sports, Max Levchin, who's a you know,

0:16:57.120 --> 0:17:01.560
<v Speaker 1>well known Ukrainian American UM who's also you know, pretty

0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:03.920
<v Speaker 1>close to Jeri Milner UM. And you know, there are

0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:06.000
<v Speaker 1>others that we we didn't include in the story. I mean,

0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:10.240
<v Speaker 1>the the the kind of Techily has definitely um circled

0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:12.480
<v Speaker 1>the wagons to some extent, and they said like, look

0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:16.160
<v Speaker 1>this this guy really has nothing to do UM with

0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:19.000
<v Speaker 1>with what's happening in Russia. And and of course you

0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:21.160
<v Speaker 1>know there is some there's some truth to that, right

0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:23.440
<v Speaker 1>he didn't he hasn't made his money in the same

0:17:23.480 --> 0:17:26.119
<v Speaker 1>way that many of these other um, you know, Russian

0:17:26.160 --> 0:17:29.040
<v Speaker 1>billionaires made their money UM and and and he really

0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:31.880
<v Speaker 1>has had some business on the other hand right there

0:17:31.960 --> 0:17:34.520
<v Speaker 1>that you know, you could imagine this. This does kind

0:17:34.520 --> 0:17:36.960
<v Speaker 1>of um, you know, color some of some of the

0:17:36.960 --> 0:17:39.400
<v Speaker 1>stuff that's happened in recent years, and it's definitely gonna

0:17:39.400 --> 0:17:41.240
<v Speaker 1>be a challenge he has to work through as he

0:17:41.320 --> 0:17:44.560
<v Speaker 1>raises money for subsequent funds. All Right, I'm gonna just

0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:46.280
<v Speaker 1>take us away for a moment, because one of the

0:17:46.280 --> 0:17:48.000
<v Speaker 1>things that jumped out when I was reading and and

0:17:48.040 --> 0:17:50.760
<v Speaker 1>all this is, you know, disisting from Vladimir Putin, but

0:17:51.040 --> 0:17:53.840
<v Speaker 1>that investment in SpaceX, like that he got out of

0:17:54.000 --> 0:18:01.240
<v Speaker 1>kind of early. Well and exactly, yeah, that's that's previously reported. Um. Yeah,

0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:03.840
<v Speaker 1>and as we say in the story, in twirteen, Urie

0:18:03.880 --> 0:18:07.640
<v Speaker 1>Millner UH put about ten million bucks into SpaceX. Now

0:18:07.680 --> 0:18:11.280
<v Speaker 1>that would not be a hugely consequential thing, except that

0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:15.040
<v Speaker 1>at that same time SpaceX was basically going around bragging

0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:20.760
<v Speaker 1>about how, unlike other UM major defense contractors UM, including

0:18:20.800 --> 0:18:23.080
<v Speaker 1>like the main one that the Air Force was using

0:18:23.480 --> 0:18:27.119
<v Speaker 1>UM to to launch rockets UH, SpaceX did not buy

0:18:27.240 --> 0:18:30.200
<v Speaker 1>Russian engines, and they in fact followed the lawsuit against

0:18:30.520 --> 0:18:34.400
<v Speaker 1>UH at the Department of Defense saying that that their

0:18:34.440 --> 0:18:38.880
<v Speaker 1>competitors were in effect funding, you know, the Russian defense industry,

0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:42.080
<v Speaker 1>and and so so this was not disclosed, and Milner

0:18:42.320 --> 0:18:45.520
<v Speaker 1>actually left, um, you know, basically exited investment. Two years

0:18:45.640 --> 0:18:47.960
<v Speaker 1>later he told us that, you know, it had nothing

0:18:48.000 --> 0:18:51.320
<v Speaker 1>to do with with this kind of concern over um,

0:18:51.400 --> 0:18:54.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, Russian money. That was just entirely about you know,

0:18:55.000 --> 0:18:57.800
<v Speaker 1>his his own judgment of the border directors. But it

0:18:57.880 --> 0:19:00.040
<v Speaker 1>isn't it is an interesting wrinkle. It's also interesting and

0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:03.840
<v Speaker 1>it wasn't previously disclosed. He doubled his money on that

0:19:03.880 --> 0:19:07.000
<v Speaker 1>one from ten million, and I'm guessing it would be

0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:09.879
<v Speaker 1>a whole lot more had he held onto it, right,

0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:15.800
<v Speaker 1>So yeah, and also helping potentially fight Putin in the

0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:18.480
<v Speaker 1>war since SpaceX has been rather helpful over there to

0:19:18.600 --> 0:19:21.680
<v Speaker 1>all right, Well it's a great story, uh, and breaking

0:19:21.760 --> 0:19:24.160
<v Speaker 1>some news there as well. Max Chapkin, thank you so much,

0:19:24.160 --> 0:19:27.280
<v Speaker 1>really appreciate it. As we mentioned Sarah McBride writing that story.

0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:31.560
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

0:19:31.600 --> 0:19:36.119
<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio watching shares of

0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:41.120
<v Speaker 1>Berkshire Hathaway certainly today because uh, mr Buffett has been

0:19:41.119 --> 0:19:43.400
<v Speaker 1>doing some deal something he hasn't been doing it some time.

0:19:43.880 --> 0:19:46.800
<v Speaker 1>Berkshire Hathaway putting money to work, this time Tim buying

0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:50.600
<v Speaker 1>Allegheny for liven point six billion in cash. As we said,

0:19:50.960 --> 0:19:53.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, Warren Buffett has really shied away from doing

0:19:53.359 --> 0:19:56.240
<v Speaker 1>dealmaking in the last few years, which is something he's

0:19:56.240 --> 0:19:58.119
<v Speaker 1>so known for. He's got he's got the cash to

0:19:58.160 --> 0:20:00.160
<v Speaker 1>do it. The company is gonna acquire all out Any

0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:02.840
<v Speaker 1>and Allegheny shares eight forty eight dollars and two cents

0:20:02.880 --> 0:20:06.560
<v Speaker 1>each in cash. It's a premium to the insures average

0:20:06.560 --> 0:20:09.879
<v Speaker 1>stock price over the last thirty days. Matthew Palazola is

0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:14.280
<v Speaker 1>Property and Casualty insurance senior analyst. He also covers Berkshire Hathaway,

0:20:14.320 --> 0:20:16.719
<v Speaker 1>so a perfect voice to have on this afternoon with

0:20:16.880 --> 0:20:19.800
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Intelligence. U, Matt take us into this deal here.

0:20:19.880 --> 0:20:22.359
<v Speaker 1>Carol mentioned that it's kind of a you know, back

0:20:22.359 --> 0:20:25.320
<v Speaker 1>to what Berkshire has done, but you know, hasn't done

0:20:25.680 --> 0:20:28.159
<v Speaker 1>in a few years. What sticks out to you about

0:20:28.200 --> 0:20:31.400
<v Speaker 1>this deal because you write that Buffets buying a mini me? Yeah,

0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:34.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean I've always looked at Allegheny as kind of

0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:38.000
<v Speaker 1>a mini Berkshire Hathaway. In two thousand twelve, they started

0:20:38.000 --> 0:20:41.440
<v Speaker 1>buying other businesses like Berkshire does with using the insurance

0:20:41.440 --> 0:20:45.440
<v Speaker 1>float to buy these non financials businesses and generate a

0:20:45.520 --> 0:20:47.760
<v Speaker 1>return off them. It's only in recent years where those

0:20:47.760 --> 0:20:53.200
<v Speaker 1>businesses have started to give a nice return. But uh,

0:20:53.280 --> 0:20:55.480
<v Speaker 1>it was very complimentary to the insurances, and it was

0:20:55.520 --> 0:20:57.520
<v Speaker 1>kind of a surprising deal for me because I wouldn't

0:20:57.520 --> 0:21:00.040
<v Speaker 1>have thought they would have bought a mini me. I

0:21:00.080 --> 0:21:01.800
<v Speaker 1>thought they would buy something else use that because they

0:21:01.840 --> 0:21:03.320
<v Speaker 1>have so much money that why not just put it

0:21:03.359 --> 0:21:05.480
<v Speaker 1>to work or what I thought. One I thought the

0:21:05.480 --> 0:21:07.240
<v Speaker 1>next somebody they were gonna buy is gonna be something

0:21:07.240 --> 0:21:09.080
<v Speaker 1>we never heard of, or I never heard of some

0:21:09.119 --> 0:21:11.880
<v Speaker 1>company that makes you know, unique parts for machines that's

0:21:11.920 --> 0:21:13.760
<v Speaker 1>the only one in the world, or something like that.

0:21:14.080 --> 0:21:17.600
<v Speaker 1>Um buying an insurance company, I was completely surprised because

0:21:17.760 --> 0:21:21.760
<v Speaker 1>they have ten seventy billion dollars of insurance premiums themselves.

0:21:21.880 --> 0:21:26.240
<v Speaker 1>Alleghany has about ten seven to ten right, so it's

0:21:26.320 --> 0:21:28.040
<v Speaker 1>very small. So I was I was surprised they would

0:21:28.040 --> 0:21:30.240
<v Speaker 1>want to do something, you know, in their in their

0:21:30.320 --> 0:21:33.840
<v Speaker 1>kind of lane. But the Alleghany business is actually very complementary.

0:21:33.840 --> 0:21:36.880
<v Speaker 1>There's there's small parts of it, like small commercial insurance.

0:21:36.880 --> 0:21:40.080
<v Speaker 1>A lot of companies are getting into Um and this

0:21:40.480 --> 0:21:43.840
<v Speaker 1>excess and surplus or specialty lines insurance where pricing is

0:21:43.880 --> 0:21:45.960
<v Speaker 1>really good. So it's actually a nice little bolt on

0:21:46.000 --> 0:21:50.480
<v Speaker 1>for their insurance business. Why is this classic buffet classic buffet?

0:21:50.560 --> 0:21:53.879
<v Speaker 1>Because you know, he had recently talked about the market.

0:21:53.960 --> 0:21:56.959
<v Speaker 1>Nothing was interesting to him, so I was very surprised

0:21:56.960 --> 0:21:59.720
<v Speaker 1>for him to do anything right. And when you look

0:21:59.760 --> 0:22:02.280
<v Speaker 1>at the gaming stock, it never actually recovered all the

0:22:02.320 --> 0:22:04.960
<v Speaker 1>way back from its pandemic low, so it never even

0:22:05.000 --> 0:22:08.920
<v Speaker 1>reached where it was pre pandemic. Uh. In addition, they

0:22:08.920 --> 0:22:11.200
<v Speaker 1>did pay on a price to book basis a little

0:22:11.200 --> 0:22:13.720
<v Speaker 1>bit more, but it was trading at the same price

0:22:13.720 --> 0:22:15.800
<v Speaker 1>to book in two thousand nineteen, so I actually think

0:22:15.800 --> 0:22:18.680
<v Speaker 1>it's a great value deal. So you kind of see

0:22:18.720 --> 0:22:21.560
<v Speaker 1>this unique asset trading at a good price and pick

0:22:21.600 --> 0:22:23.639
<v Speaker 1>it up. Okay, So that back to the like you know,

0:22:23.760 --> 0:22:26.840
<v Speaker 1>Graham and Dodd value investing. When it for buffett Um,

0:22:26.920 --> 0:22:29.960
<v Speaker 1>what does uh Berkshire Hath Theway do with it? So

0:22:30.880 --> 0:22:33.400
<v Speaker 1>Berkshire's m O is they buy companies and they let

0:22:33.400 --> 0:22:35.800
<v Speaker 1>them run. They buy the managers, they buy the teams,

0:22:35.840 --> 0:22:38.960
<v Speaker 1>they let it go. I'd be very surprised if you

0:22:38.960 --> 0:22:42.119
<v Speaker 1>have a ginormous insurance business that you just have another

0:22:42.160 --> 0:22:44.120
<v Speaker 1>little insurance business on the side. But I think that's

0:22:44.160 --> 0:22:45.919
<v Speaker 1>what's That's what I'm asking the question. I mean, are

0:22:45.920 --> 0:22:48.440
<v Speaker 1>there I hate to use the term synergies because classically,

0:22:48.480 --> 0:22:51.520
<v Speaker 1>when you have an acquisition of a company, you see

0:22:51.800 --> 0:22:55.000
<v Speaker 1>it being folded into another company. You know, it doesn't

0:22:55.040 --> 0:22:57.119
<v Speaker 1>make sense to actually buy a company if you're not

0:22:57.160 --> 0:22:59.560
<v Speaker 1>going to if you know, one and one doesn't equal three, right.

0:23:00.119 --> 0:23:02.199
<v Speaker 1>But in the in Buffett's case, how what does he

0:23:02.240 --> 0:23:05.120
<v Speaker 1>typically do? So I don't think he doesn't. He hates

0:23:05.160 --> 0:23:07.960
<v Speaker 1>the word synergies and they never buy anything for synergy.

0:23:08.000 --> 0:23:09.680
<v Speaker 1>But I hate it too because I hate when executives

0:23:09.760 --> 0:23:11.359
<v Speaker 1>use it because it's because it justs and it just

0:23:11.400 --> 0:23:15.480
<v Speaker 1>means laoffs. Right, Yeah, they're not They're not going to

0:23:15.560 --> 0:23:17.639
<v Speaker 1>take costs out. It's not a cost play. It's not

0:23:17.680 --> 0:23:20.920
<v Speaker 1>a synergy play. It's a great company, uh that they

0:23:20.960 --> 0:23:23.600
<v Speaker 1>got at a decent price. The CEO of Allegheny used

0:23:23.640 --> 0:23:26.600
<v Speaker 1>to work for Buffett, so uh, he had even said

0:23:26.600 --> 0:23:28.879
<v Speaker 1>I'm glad to have him on board. So they're not

0:23:28.880 --> 0:23:31.280
<v Speaker 1>going to chop out the management team or anything like that. Matt.

0:23:31.359 --> 0:23:34.440
<v Speaker 1>The deal includes a ghost shop period, so they ensure

0:23:34.520 --> 0:23:37.520
<v Speaker 1>can solicit consider other acquisition proposals for twenty five days.

0:23:37.560 --> 0:23:39.800
<v Speaker 1>Do we have to be concerned that somebody else might

0:23:39.840 --> 0:23:42.359
<v Speaker 1>come in here? It was a decent premium right and

0:23:42.560 --> 0:23:45.119
<v Speaker 1>the ship prices I think trading around there, it's training

0:23:45.160 --> 0:23:47.160
<v Speaker 1>around that. I don't I don't think so. I don't

0:23:47.280 --> 0:23:51.200
<v Speaker 1>see a natural buyer necessarily want that. Then why not

0:23:51.320 --> 0:23:52.800
<v Speaker 1>just be one and done? I think it had to

0:23:52.840 --> 0:23:56.399
<v Speaker 1>do it for for governance reasons. Okay, was Alleghany on

0:23:56.400 --> 0:23:59.800
<v Speaker 1>your radar as as you know at Bloomberg Intelligence in

0:24:00.000 --> 0:24:02.199
<v Speaker 1>one of the companies that you cover. We didn't cover it,

0:24:02.280 --> 0:24:04.639
<v Speaker 1>but definitely on our radar as as kind of a

0:24:04.680 --> 0:24:07.440
<v Speaker 1>sizeable company out there. It's mostly a reinsurance company, which

0:24:07.480 --> 0:24:11.880
<v Speaker 1>is insurance for insurance companies. UM, so we paid attention

0:24:11.880 --> 0:24:13.680
<v Speaker 1>to it in that way, but we we actually didn't

0:24:13.680 --> 0:24:16.280
<v Speaker 1>cover it. Was like insurance reinsurance, like how many levels

0:24:16.320 --> 0:24:20.399
<v Speaker 1>do we go down? Matures the reinsurance, the retro reinsurers

0:24:21.840 --> 0:24:29.240
<v Speaker 1>come on, who insures the retro reinsures? Well, I just

0:24:29.240 --> 0:24:30.800
<v Speaker 1>get about a minute here and I'm thinking, you know,

0:24:30.920 --> 0:24:33.479
<v Speaker 1>we're not quite sure what the outlook is. Everybody's been

0:24:33.480 --> 0:24:36.040
<v Speaker 1>thrown into a tizzy because of J. Powell maybe being

0:24:36.040 --> 0:24:39.840
<v Speaker 1>more aggressive, you know, insurance business and a rising rate environment.

0:24:39.880 --> 0:24:44.240
<v Speaker 1>Good bad? Like, how do we think about this going forward? Good?

0:24:44.280 --> 0:24:47.199
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the interest rates will help investment income as

0:24:47.280 --> 0:24:49.119
<v Speaker 1>long as you have this kind of Goldilock scenario of

0:24:49.240 --> 0:24:51.440
<v Speaker 1>not too much inflation, interest rates going up, that's good

0:24:51.480 --> 0:24:53.439
<v Speaker 1>for insurance companies. All right, we're gonna leave it there.

0:24:53.440 --> 0:24:56.399
<v Speaker 1>I really appreciate it. Matt Palazola, of course, of our

0:24:56.440 --> 0:25:01.240
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg intelligence team. Yeah, I bet you let me drive.

0:25:01.520 --> 0:25:05.720
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, no, no no, no, all right, please, I'll do

0:25:05.840 --> 0:25:15.920
<v Speaker 1>the right I want to drive. A good question. This

0:25:16.280 --> 0:25:22.600
<v Speaker 1>is the drive to the Globe on Bluebird Radio. All Right,

0:25:22.640 --> 0:25:25.199
<v Speaker 1>just got about ten and a half minutes left in

0:25:25.240 --> 0:25:27.800
<v Speaker 1>today's trading session. We've been bouncing around, certainly on the

0:25:27.880 --> 0:25:32.200
<v Speaker 1>equity trade. Uh, we're near our worst levels of the session.

0:25:32.280 --> 0:25:35.200
<v Speaker 1>But bonds man, no doubt about it. Uh, selling off

0:25:35.280 --> 0:25:38.520
<v Speaker 1>and yields moving up. That has been pretty consistent here, Tim.

0:25:38.600 --> 0:25:41.239
<v Speaker 1>Let's get into it with Abbe Desponde, founder and ce

0:25:41.400 --> 0:25:44.520
<v Speaker 1>IO at Center Stone Investors, joined us on the phone

0:25:44.560 --> 0:25:47.320
<v Speaker 1>from New York City. Abbe, how are you all right?

0:25:47.320 --> 0:25:50.359
<v Speaker 1>How you doing doing well, thanks, we gotta talk Powell.

0:25:50.400 --> 0:25:53.080
<v Speaker 1>I mean, fifty basis points essentially back on the table

0:25:53.160 --> 0:25:55.119
<v Speaker 1>right now. The Central Bank is prepared to raise interest

0:25:55.200 --> 0:25:58.280
<v Speaker 1>rates at its next meeting by half a percentage point

0:25:58.280 --> 0:26:01.400
<v Speaker 1>if needed, deploying that more aggressive tone towards curbing inflation

0:26:01.680 --> 0:26:03.560
<v Speaker 1>then he used just a few days earlier, Carol gave

0:26:03.640 --> 0:26:05.280
<v Speaker 1>us an update on the equity market in the bond

0:26:05.320 --> 0:26:07.560
<v Speaker 1>market as a result. What are your takeaways from what

0:26:07.600 --> 0:26:11.600
<v Speaker 1>you heard from Powell today? I mean everyone has an

0:26:11.600 --> 0:26:14.440
<v Speaker 1>opinion about about this, and most people think that wait,

0:26:14.480 --> 0:26:15.720
<v Speaker 1>I was a little nervous where you were going to

0:26:15.760 --> 0:26:20.240
<v Speaker 1>go with that. Well, I'll say something that's probably not

0:26:20.880 --> 0:26:24.000
<v Speaker 1>uh shared by a lot of people, which is they

0:26:24.040 --> 0:26:26.040
<v Speaker 1>don't have the ability to go as high as they

0:26:26.200 --> 0:26:27.960
<v Speaker 1>as people think they're going to go a three percent,

0:26:28.080 --> 0:26:31.080
<v Speaker 1>four percent or whatever. And the main reason is because

0:26:31.119 --> 0:26:33.720
<v Speaker 1>the debt to GDP ratio is it climbs highers, it

0:26:33.760 --> 0:26:36.200
<v Speaker 1>has climbed higher since the two thousands make financial crisis.

0:26:36.640 --> 0:26:38.840
<v Speaker 1>It's required lower and lower peak rates in order to

0:26:39.280 --> 0:26:41.800
<v Speaker 1>really install the economy. I mean, the last rate hike

0:26:41.920 --> 0:26:44.000
<v Speaker 1>cycle ended it two and a half percent short then,

0:26:44.720 --> 0:26:48.959
<v Speaker 1>and debt to GDP is now higher than it was

0:26:49.119 --> 0:26:53.240
<v Speaker 1>in two thousand eighteen. So if they can get much

0:26:53.320 --> 0:26:56.880
<v Speaker 1>higher than two, I'd be shocked. Are you saying, because

0:26:56.960 --> 0:27:00.000
<v Speaker 1>the servicing and the cost or what yeah, I mean

0:27:00.000 --> 0:27:02.480
<v Speaker 1>in the the normous amount of leverage, it takes less

0:27:02.520 --> 0:27:04.680
<v Speaker 1>and less an interest hype to really spread the pain

0:27:04.680 --> 0:27:08.280
<v Speaker 1>across a large part of the economy. So wait, so

0:27:08.359 --> 0:27:10.320
<v Speaker 1>I just want to sure I understand this. I'm a

0:27:10.320 --> 0:27:13.960
<v Speaker 1>little slow on a Monday. Uh. But obviously what you're

0:27:14.000 --> 0:27:16.920
<v Speaker 1>saying is that the debt to GDP ratio is higher

0:27:16.920 --> 0:27:22.119
<v Speaker 1>than it was, and as the Fed raises rates, right,

0:27:22.160 --> 0:27:24.600
<v Speaker 1>the cost of servicing that debt will go up and

0:27:24.640 --> 0:27:28.679
<v Speaker 1>that will be problematic. It is, and it's not just

0:27:28.840 --> 0:27:33.320
<v Speaker 1>in the said but you know corporate Uh, corporations are

0:27:33.400 --> 0:27:37.119
<v Speaker 1>highly indebted, much more so than they they've ever been UM.

0:27:37.240 --> 0:27:39.440
<v Speaker 1>And you know, you can see already the credit indicators

0:27:39.480 --> 0:27:43.000
<v Speaker 1>are starting to even with a twenty five basis point

0:27:43.080 --> 0:27:45.720
<v Speaker 1>federal funds federal funds rate, you can see the credit

0:27:45.720 --> 0:27:48.800
<v Speaker 1>markets already starting to kind of you know, smiff out

0:27:48.840 --> 0:27:51.280
<v Speaker 1>some potential problem. Credit yields are hot, or how yield

0:27:51.880 --> 0:27:55.520
<v Speaker 1>spreads or you know four percentage points or something like that.

0:27:55.600 --> 0:27:59.080
<v Speaker 1>And you know, don't forget now half or more of

0:27:59.119 --> 0:28:03.760
<v Speaker 1>the corporate bond market is around junk or worse rated,

0:28:03.960 --> 0:28:07.919
<v Speaker 1>So it's an enormous problem. And you also have you know,

0:28:07.960 --> 0:28:11.200
<v Speaker 1>some of the other kind of factors here of mortgage

0:28:11.280 --> 0:28:13.520
<v Speaker 1>rates are not three percent or for an ad percent

0:28:13.560 --> 0:28:17.879
<v Speaker 1>now on the bank rate martyrs. So there's plenty of already, um,

0:28:18.600 --> 0:28:20.639
<v Speaker 1>you know, head winds building that are just going to

0:28:20.680 --> 0:28:23.160
<v Speaker 1>prevent the FED from getting anywhere close to that three

0:28:23.240 --> 0:28:26.440
<v Speaker 1>or four percent numbers, my guess. And what we're left

0:28:26.440 --> 0:28:29.439
<v Speaker 1>the is with a you know, people have been wondering

0:28:29.440 --> 0:28:31.040
<v Speaker 1>for for a long time, when is the US going

0:28:31.080 --> 0:28:33.840
<v Speaker 1>to have negative interest rates? Well, you're gonna have them soon.

0:28:34.000 --> 0:28:37.879
<v Speaker 1>Can have negative real interest rates by um, well, they're

0:28:37.920 --> 0:28:40.920
<v Speaker 1>already negative and they're gonna peek out at negative. Can

0:28:40.960 --> 0:28:42.520
<v Speaker 1>I just ask you something in terms of the corporate

0:28:42.560 --> 0:28:45.320
<v Speaker 1>debt that you said that we're that you know, corporations

0:28:45.320 --> 0:28:48.720
<v Speaker 1>are also highly indebted. But help me explain something or

0:28:48.720 --> 0:28:52.240
<v Speaker 1>help me understand something here too, because we've talked about

0:28:52.280 --> 0:28:56.680
<v Speaker 1>a lot of corporate debt restructuring, especially as rates were low, right,

0:28:56.720 --> 0:28:59.680
<v Speaker 1>we saw companies tapping debt markets to restructure that debt.

0:28:59.680 --> 0:29:04.320
<v Speaker 1>You're ing though that debt will come um true or

0:29:04.840 --> 0:29:07.840
<v Speaker 1>what will be, they'll have to reservice it, you're saying

0:29:07.920 --> 0:29:10.280
<v Speaker 1>soon and that, and they'll be forced to do higher rates.

0:29:10.280 --> 0:29:13.480
<v Speaker 1>And so that's problematic because I'm a most problematic Yeah.

0:29:13.640 --> 0:29:16.360
<v Speaker 1>But also the fact that such a large part of

0:29:16.360 --> 0:29:19.280
<v Speaker 1>the corporate debt market is that John, and when you're

0:29:19.320 --> 0:29:21.760
<v Speaker 1>talking about junk bonds, you're talking about default rates of

0:29:22.040 --> 0:29:25.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, four percent just in a on average over

0:29:25.120 --> 0:29:28.959
<v Speaker 1>a long period of time. So as the economy slows,

0:29:28.960 --> 0:29:32.560
<v Speaker 1>there's a larger part of the economy that is exposed

0:29:32.600 --> 0:29:35.600
<v Speaker 1>to potential default and that you know, of course is

0:29:35.600 --> 0:29:38.920
<v Speaker 1>a self reinforcing cycle potentially on the downside as the

0:29:38.960 --> 0:29:42.760
<v Speaker 1>economy slows down. So all of these factors kind of

0:29:43.240 --> 0:29:47.000
<v Speaker 1>prevent the Fed from raising rates, you know, to the

0:29:47.080 --> 0:29:50.320
<v Speaker 1>degree that would be required to offset the inflation rates,

0:29:50.320 --> 0:29:52.640
<v Speaker 1>in other words, to get to that four or five rate,

0:29:53.360 --> 0:29:56.320
<v Speaker 1>which would be kind of where inflation probably is in May, June, July.

0:29:56.960 --> 0:29:59.400
<v Speaker 1>It's just gonna be very difficult for them to get there.

0:29:59.440 --> 0:30:01.880
<v Speaker 1>So that, you know, the good and bad of that

0:30:02.240 --> 0:30:05.200
<v Speaker 1>is that, you know, those that are expecting a bear

0:30:05.320 --> 0:30:08.800
<v Speaker 1>market stocks go down or whatever. I don't think it's

0:30:08.840 --> 0:30:11.800
<v Speaker 1>going to happen. That it could get people could get

0:30:11.840 --> 0:30:15.239
<v Speaker 1>that fear. But um, more than likely that said, it's

0:30:15.240 --> 0:30:18.360
<v Speaker 1>going to be prevented from raising rates to the extent

0:30:18.440 --> 0:30:20.520
<v Speaker 1>that it would cause a major major stock I mean

0:30:20.520 --> 0:30:23.560
<v Speaker 1>stocks can still go down, but not like a you know, wipeout.

0:30:23.920 --> 0:30:27.960
<v Speaker 1>So what does this mean for inflation? Uh, Inflation remains

0:30:28.680 --> 0:30:34.120
<v Speaker 1>a cyclical phenomena at this point, Um, except for you know,

0:30:34.320 --> 0:30:38.120
<v Speaker 1>the horrific things going on in Europe and the effect

0:30:38.120 --> 0:30:41.280
<v Speaker 1>on oil food prices. You know, for the different parts

0:30:41.320 --> 0:30:45.080
<v Speaker 1>of the world, the inflation matters in different ways. In

0:30:45.120 --> 0:30:48.200
<v Speaker 1>the United States are basically a self sufficient economy as

0:30:48.200 --> 0:30:51.160
<v Speaker 1>far as food, so it comes out of the pocketbooks

0:30:51.280 --> 0:30:54.280
<v Speaker 1>of US uh, you know, households, but it goes into

0:30:54.280 --> 0:30:58.200
<v Speaker 1>the pocketbooks of chemical producers and farmers and what have

0:30:58.320 --> 0:31:01.160
<v Speaker 1>you that does not and also food in the United

0:31:01.200 --> 0:31:04.200
<v Speaker 1>States and developed markets. You know, it's a small portion

0:31:04.280 --> 0:31:06.560
<v Speaker 1>of the total bill of the product that you pay.

0:31:06.600 --> 0:31:08.920
<v Speaker 1>Everything else is marketing and transportation and brand building and

0:31:08.960 --> 0:31:13.280
<v Speaker 1>all that stuff. If you're in Northern Africa, we prices

0:31:13.320 --> 0:31:17.560
<v Speaker 1>go up by your cost of eating went up three

0:31:18.280 --> 0:31:20.480
<v Speaker 1>that's a major problem for those parts of the world,

0:31:21.160 --> 0:31:23.120
<v Speaker 1>So inflation is going to affect different parts of the

0:31:23.160 --> 0:31:26.440
<v Speaker 1>world in different ways. Um And I don't think anything

0:31:26.480 --> 0:31:29.560
<v Speaker 1>that I've just said is really revolutionary or all that original.

0:31:29.560 --> 0:31:33.480
<v Speaker 1>It's just kind of reflecting that the realities from what's

0:31:33.520 --> 0:31:36.959
<v Speaker 1>happening in Ukraine, so all kind of games that inflation

0:31:36.960 --> 0:31:39.520
<v Speaker 1>is a little bit more sticky. Yeah, then I would

0:31:39.520 --> 0:31:41.400
<v Speaker 1>have thought even you know, six months ago, I thought

0:31:41.440 --> 0:31:43.480
<v Speaker 1>it is much more of just a sickle phenomena because

0:31:43.480 --> 0:31:47.880
<v Speaker 1>of the supply issues in the shutdowns. But there's there's

0:31:47.880 --> 0:31:50.120
<v Speaker 1>some tail ones here. You gave us some really smart

0:31:50.120 --> 0:31:51.600
<v Speaker 1>things to think aboutespecially in a week we're going to

0:31:51.680 --> 0:31:53.280
<v Speaker 1>hear from a lot of fit speakers. Already heard from

0:31:53.360 --> 0:31:55.920
<v Speaker 1>j Powell today as we as we've discussed all we've

0:31:55.920 --> 0:31:58.360
<v Speaker 1>got to run. But hopefully we get to back real soon.

0:31:58.400 --> 0:32:02.680
<v Speaker 1>I'llbe desponde. He's found and chief investment officer Centerstone Investors,

0:32:02.680 --> 0:32:04.120
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from New York City. I thought that

0:32:04.160 --> 0:32:07.080
<v Speaker 1>was you know, you do wonder what will maybe prevent

0:32:07.120 --> 0:32:11.320
<v Speaker 1>the FED from being as aggressive? Um or every meeting

0:32:11.320 --> 0:32:12.600
<v Speaker 1>they're going to go and they're going to see what

0:32:12.600 --> 0:32:14.160
<v Speaker 1>the world is like. Right if he says the FED

0:32:14.200 --> 0:32:16.040
<v Speaker 1>isn't able to raise interest rates as much as they

0:32:16.080 --> 0:32:18.080
<v Speaker 1>want to, then what does it mean for prices and

0:32:18.120 --> 0:32:21.400
<v Speaker 1>stable prices right? And does that does that correct? Maybe

0:32:21.480 --> 0:32:24.080
<v Speaker 1>as demand you know, ultimately goes down, we will see.

0:32:25.080 --> 0:32:27.960
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast

0:32:27.960 --> 0:32:30.920
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0:32:30.960 --> 0:32:33.120
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0:32:33.120 --> 0:32:36.280
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0:32:36.280 --> 0:32:37.000
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