WEBVTT - US Consumer Sentiment Declines for First Time in Six Months 

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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<v Speaker 2>With your data dependent And we got that you mission number,

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<v Speaker 2>that final rease.

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<v Speaker 3>So let's go to Jorana Shue, Surveys of Consumers, Director

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<v Speaker 3>for the University of Michigan. University of Michigan sentiment came

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<v Speaker 3>out seventy one point one. The consensus was seventy three

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<v Speaker 3>point two. Joanne, what does the data tell you here?

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<v Speaker 4>The consumers are really not sure about what's going to

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<v Speaker 4>be going on in the future, particularly with this administration change.

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<v Speaker 4>We're of course.

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<v Speaker 5>Seeing partisan differences.

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<v Speaker 4>Republicans are feeling pretty optimistic about the future, Democrats less so.

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<v Speaker 4>And this is really coming down to a difference in

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<v Speaker 4>opinion about what Trump's anticipated policies are going to result

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<v Speaker 4>in for the economy.

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<v Speaker 2>What about the inflation expectations? Like which kind of changes

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<v Speaker 2>do we see there? Because of course we're all waiting

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<v Speaker 2>to see if tariffs do come down, will they wind

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<v Speaker 2>up being inflationary.

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<v Speaker 4>So inflation expectations for the short run they surged quite

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<v Speaker 4>a bit between December and January, and they went up

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<v Speaker 4>as well for the long run three point zero in December,

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<v Speaker 4>three point two this month. Consumers are really quite concerned

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<v Speaker 4>about tariffs, and actually concerned in different ways.

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<v Speaker 5>Democrats.

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<v Speaker 4>People who believe that tariffs are better for the economy,

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<v Speaker 4>they think that inflation is going to plummet. People who

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<v Speaker 4>think that tariffs are bad for the economy, they think

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<v Speaker 4>that inflation is going to come surging back. So overall,

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<v Speaker 4>consumers have already incorporated expected tariffs into their economic attitudes.

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<v Speaker 6>All right, Joanne, thank you so much. We appreciate that.

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<v Speaker 3>Joan Shue Surveys of Consumers, Director for the University of

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<v Speaker 3>Michigan and University of Michigan headline number came out. Sentiment

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<v Speaker 3>number seventy one point one was the actual. The consensus

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<v Speaker 3>was seventy three point two, and was seventy three point

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<v Speaker 3>two in the prior period. So, as Joanne was saying,

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<v Speaker 3>some concerning out there, perhaps about some changes in economic policies,

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<v Speaker 3>at least initially.

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<v Speaker 6>And it comes right up. So how tough is that?

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<v Speaker 3>It is Friday, which means we talked to one be

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<v Speaker 3>Ridholt's barrier. Ridolts, he does this podcast thing. I think

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<v Speaker 3>it's kind of popular. The host of Masters and Business

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<v Speaker 3>on Bloomberg Radio is also the founder of Erdtholt's wealth

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<v Speaker 3>management Barry Make America great Again. One could look at

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<v Speaker 3>the economic data and say, country's doing pretty well.

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<v Speaker 6>How do you think about it?

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, you know, this is the second time President Trump,

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<v Speaker 7>first in twenty seventeen, now in twenty twenty five, inherited

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<v Speaker 7>a really robust economy. So we'll just look at the

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<v Speaker 7>previous year and when you look at his first term,

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<v Speaker 7>the worst effects of the financial crisis had faded. Things

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<v Speaker 7>had been on the upswing, at least enough for President

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<v Speaker 7>Obama to get re elected in twenty twelve. By twenty sixteen,

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<v Speaker 7>you know, we were really flying. Market was at a

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<v Speaker 7>new all time high, and the economy is doing pretty well.

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<v Speaker 7>Here we are twenty twenty five, twenty twenty four, GDP

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<v Speaker 7>is going to be pretty close to three percent for

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<v Speaker 7>the year. Unemployment is at four point one percent, that's

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<v Speaker 7>close to full employment. Inflation is back under three percent

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<v Speaker 7>heading towards two. We can argue if two percent is

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<v Speaker 7>a credible inflation target in a fiscal stimulus environment, but

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<v Speaker 7>two point seven percent headline CPI wages are higher, markets

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<v Speaker 7>are at record highs, corporate profits are record highs. I

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<v Speaker 7>could make the case that America is already, at least

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<v Speaker 7>economically speaking, pretty great.

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<v Speaker 5>Right. So that makes me feel two things.

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<v Speaker 2>One either freaked out that there's only room to you

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<v Speaker 2>for downside or two, well, then you add on, say deregulation,

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<v Speaker 2>and you add on lower taxes, and we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>see some better times too.

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<v Speaker 7>So first, you know, it's very hard to say the

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<v Speaker 7>economy is doing really well, and like a person who's

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<v Speaker 7>enjoyed a great, healthy, long life lifespan. They don't just

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<v Speaker 7>suddenly roll over and die. The economies don't just trip

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<v Speaker 7>and face plants, at least not develop large ecout He's

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<v Speaker 7>like the US. So you know, I had to I

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<v Speaker 7>have coming up in a week or so Torsten Slock

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<v Speaker 7>from Apollo Global Management, and he puts the risk of

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<v Speaker 7>recession at zero percent. Listen, I don't put anything at

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<v Speaker 7>zero percent, but that get you know, we could a

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<v Speaker 7>meteor that killed the dinosaurs. There's more than a zero

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<v Speaker 7>percent chance that that happens this weekend. It's close to

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<v Speaker 7>zero percent. So I think what he's trying to say

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<v Speaker 7>is this economy is firing on all cylinders. Wherever you look,

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<v Speaker 7>there is strength. And if you look at how poorly

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<v Speaker 7>the rest of the economists world have done over the

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<v Speaker 7>past few years, consistently forecasting recession, slow down this, I

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<v Speaker 7>think they underestimate the strength of the US economy. The

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<v Speaker 7>if you look around we have are suffering from labor shortages,

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<v Speaker 7>is housing shortages, automobile shortages. That's a big driving factor

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<v Speaker 7>in preventing any sort of softness to happen, because anytime

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<v Speaker 7>you know, a new house gets built, it gets bought

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<v Speaker 7>up right away. Anytime there are qualified people in a

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<v Speaker 7>labor pool, they get hired right away. And so it's

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<v Speaker 7>to say nothing of all of the positive activity activity

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<v Speaker 7>we've seen over the past few years, not just AI,

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<v Speaker 7>but data centers and software and technology. Those things tend

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<v Speaker 7>to have momentum and they tend to persist. That's not

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<v Speaker 7>a week to week or month to month economic factor.

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<v Speaker 7>Those are drivers that can last years and years, almost

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<v Speaker 7>a decade. So we just have a lot of economic

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<v Speaker 7>tailwinds behind us, and people have just been way too negative.

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<v Speaker 7>That's before we get to the positives. And this administration

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<v Speaker 7>is potentially a mixed bag the risks and opportunities.

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<v Speaker 6>But from a market.

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<v Speaker 7>Perspective, there certainly are a lot of opportunities coming.

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<v Speaker 3>Barry, Are you concerned at all about potential headwinds coming

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<v Speaker 3>from either tariffs or material changes to immigration policy that

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<v Speaker 3>may be inflationary, that may harm the labor market, any

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<v Speaker 3>of those types of things.

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, everything comes down to interest rates all the risk

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<v Speaker 7>So there are risky policies from the Trump administration, and

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<v Speaker 7>there are opportunistic policies from Trump two point zero. The

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<v Speaker 7>risky policies all come down to interest rates. The wildcard

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<v Speaker 7>factor of geopolitics. I have no idea what he's going

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<v Speaker 7>to do with China, Russia, in the Middle East. You know,

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<v Speaker 7>risk of let's not even talk about war, just disruption

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<v Speaker 7>is problematic. I don't know how else to describe tariffs

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<v Speaker 7>other than a price increase paid for by domestic consumers.

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<v Speaker 7>You know, the FED has talked about tariffs as inflationary

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<v Speaker 7>and potent preventing even more rate decreases. When Trump actually

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<v Speaker 7>made his presentation at Davos, he not only called on

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<v Speaker 7>lower oil prices from Opek, he called for lower rates

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<v Speaker 7>from all the central banks around the world. Well, we

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<v Speaker 7>import a ton of oil and petroleum products from Canada.

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<v Speaker 7>If you're going to slap a ten or a twenty

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<v Speaker 7>percent level rate on that, guess what That's going to

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<v Speaker 7>be inflationary. So I'm a little concerned about this. My

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<v Speaker 7>wishful thinking is, hey, this is a negotiating tactic, and

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<v Speaker 7>to be fair, much of the tariffs around the world

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<v Speaker 7>are not even handed. You cannot have a ten twenty

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<v Speaker 7>thirty percent tariff on US goods and it's less manufactured

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<v Speaker 7>goods than it is agricultural or all the energy we're

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<v Speaker 7>exporting liquefied natural gas as well as various forms of petroleum.

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<v Speaker 7>There needs to be some fairness and parody. So while

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<v Speaker 7>many of my friends on the left scream about, oh,

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<v Speaker 7>this is going to be terrible, Hey, there's a case

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<v Speaker 7>to be made. There's a reasonable negotiation to get some fairness.

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<v Speaker 7>It has to be a two way street. It can't

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<v Speaker 7>just be American consumers wealthy as though they are paying

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<v Speaker 7>most of the tariffs in the world. That doesn't seem

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<v Speaker 7>to be fair. Hopefully we can get some positive resolution

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<v Speaker 7>to the tariff question.

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<v Speaker 2>So and then it all brings back to sequencing, right,

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<v Speaker 2>Like tariffs will probably hit faster than maybe deregulation and

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<v Speaker 2>corporate taxes, but the sequencing may not matter if we

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<v Speaker 2>know that, say, deregulation and corporate taxes are coming.

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<v Speaker 5>Is that a fair assessment.

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<v Speaker 6>You know?

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<v Speaker 7>I that's a really interesting question because I have no

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<v Speaker 7>idea of what the sequencing sequencing is going to be. Like,

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<v Speaker 7>anything that's going to require Congress is going to take longer.

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<v Speaker 7>But a perfect example, the FTC on President Biden was

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<v Speaker 7>pretty aggressive in restraining.

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<v Speaker 6>M and A activity.

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<v Speaker 7>I mean, to be fair, the FTC has been asleep

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<v Speaker 7>at the switch for three decades and have allowed an

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<v Speaker 7>intense concentration of corporate power. Anyone who's bought a concert

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<v Speaker 7>ticket knows how ridiculous the Live Nation Ticketmaster merger was allowed,

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<v Speaker 7>and you could say the same thing about You could

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<v Speaker 7>say the same thing about a lot of other technology

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<v Speaker 7>mergers that have been allowed. There's far fewer healthcare companies,

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<v Speaker 7>far fewer energy companies. It's it's really become a little

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<v Speaker 7>bit of a corporatetocracy. But you know, a defanged FTC

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<v Speaker 7>is going to allow more m and a activity generally

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<v Speaker 7>that supportive of higher market prices. There'll be no scrutiny

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<v Speaker 7>on stock buy backs, so that tends to support higher prices.

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<v Speaker 7>You know, the IPO market's been pretty dead for a

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<v Speaker 7>few years. That's gonna start coming back to life, as

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<v Speaker 7>well as secondaries, to say nothing of the deregulation to

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<v Speaker 7>specific sectors. So think about healthcare and energy. I can't

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<v Speaker 7>it's hard to imagine. We've been producing record amounts of

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<v Speaker 7>oil in the United States the past few years. They're

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<v Speaker 7>going to open up even more areas.

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<v Speaker 8>Now.

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<v Speaker 7>The politics of that is a little bit divisive, but

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<v Speaker 7>just being cold blooded and looking at it from an

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<v Speaker 7>economic perspective. Hey, more energy means lower more petroleum means

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<v Speaker 7>lower oil prices, which is anti inflationary. Same with materials.

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<v Speaker 7>Energy and materials were two of the worst sectors last year.

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<v Speaker 7>Maybe they catch.

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<v Speaker 6>A bit Barry, real quick, what are you driving this

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<v Speaker 6>weekend in this weather?

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<v Speaker 7>The truck, I'm gonna be out in something with heated

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<v Speaker 7>seats and a heated steering wheel, and I don't really

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<v Speaker 7>care about hand or I'm looking out my home office window.

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<v Speaker 7>Everything is still snowed over, still iced over, and the

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<v Speaker 7>thermostat says we're still in the teens. Hopefully by Sunday. Well,

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<v Speaker 7>we'll get out of this deep freeze and I could

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<v Speaker 7>take something out like any of the fun cars. Their

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<v Speaker 7>tires are just terrible in twenty degree weather. They have

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<v Speaker 7>no grip.

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<v Speaker 4>Well.

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<v Speaker 5>Also, though teens is kind of a heat wave, so

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<v Speaker 5>at this point.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, look at that one. Get them to thirties on Sundays.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean that's like bathing suit weather. Barry. We appreciate you,

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<v Speaker 5>Thank you very much.

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<v Speaker 2>Barry Red Holts, founder and CEO of Holt's Wealth Management.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

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<v Speaker 3>Let's get it right to our next guest. Macunda, has

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<v Speaker 3>been kind enough to chat with us over the last

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<v Speaker 3>several months give us his thoughts on what's happening down

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<v Speaker 3>in Washington, DC. He's a professor at the Yale School

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<v Speaker 3>of Management. Qualtam, Thanks so much for joining us here.

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<v Speaker 3>You just know you listen to President Trump makes some

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<v Speaker 3>comments here. What are your initial thoughts here of these

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<v Speaker 3>first several days of President Trump's second administration.

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<v Speaker 6>Here, as he hits the ground seemingly for running, Yeah.

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<v Speaker 8>I mean it's a mixture. He's definitely hitting the ground

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<v Speaker 8>running in some ways. So there's some element of the

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<v Speaker 8>rhetorical gestures that don't kind of mean a lot and

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<v Speaker 8>are characteristically Trumpian. Right, He's renaming the Gulf of Mexico

0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:42.319
<v Speaker 8>and the Mount Mount Mount Denali and things like that.

0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:44.319
<v Speaker 9>Okay, fine, I mean whatever.

0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:47.760
<v Speaker 8>There are a bunch of executive orders, some of which

0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:51.560
<v Speaker 8>are pretty standard, some of which are not necessarily what

0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:54.360
<v Speaker 8>they seem. The one on tariffs, for examples, basically says

0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:57.920
<v Speaker 8>that the Secretary of Commerce will consult, which isn't.

0:13:57.679 --> 0:13:59.280
<v Speaker 9>The same thing as levying them massively.

0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:02.040
<v Speaker 8>So we'll see what happens on that next And then

0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:03.800
<v Speaker 8>there's a bunch of stuff that is going to do

0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:06.040
<v Speaker 8>a lot of long term damage, but the effects may

0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:08.880
<v Speaker 8>not be seen right away. The United States withdrawing from

0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:11.439
<v Speaker 8>the World Health Organization. I think we had a pretty

0:14:11.520 --> 0:14:14.840
<v Speaker 8>dramatic example quite recently about the importance of global public health.

0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:17.080
<v Speaker 8>So you know, we might worry about the effects of that,

0:14:17.320 --> 0:14:20.000
<v Speaker 8>the US pulling out of climate change agreements. Those things

0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:21.760
<v Speaker 8>are going to do a lot of harm, but it

0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:23.720
<v Speaker 8>may not be perceptible in the next year or two,

0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:25.080
<v Speaker 8>or even the next four or five years. That might

0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:25.800
<v Speaker 8>be a problem for the.

0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:28.320
<v Speaker 5>Successor exactly, which brought me to mind.

0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:29.920
<v Speaker 2>It brings me to my next question, and we were

0:14:29.920 --> 0:14:33.000
<v Speaker 2>talking about this earlier, is what is a sequencing because

0:14:33.040 --> 0:14:35.480
<v Speaker 2>that matters, right if you have deregulation and you have

0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:37.400
<v Speaker 2>tax cuts, that's obviously going to be positive. It feels

0:14:37.440 --> 0:14:39.920
<v Speaker 2>like the equity market's really focused on that versus say,

0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:42.800
<v Speaker 2>the tariff issue, which could come actually earlier maybe than

0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:44.280
<v Speaker 2>we think, but it has doesn't have a lot of

0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:46.280
<v Speaker 2>clarity what's your sequencing modeling.

0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:50.000
<v Speaker 8>So the sequencing a lot depends on the Republican Congress

0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:52.200
<v Speaker 8>and the Republican Caucus in the House, which at the

0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:56.320
<v Speaker 8>moment is sitting on a one seat margin. So the

0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:59.080
<v Speaker 8>you know, herting cats is easy compared to what they're

0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:01.400
<v Speaker 8>going to try to do here, and in particular, the

0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:03.360
<v Speaker 8>tax cussings like all that is also going to get

0:15:03.400 --> 0:15:06.920
<v Speaker 8>revolve around the debt ceiling increase, which will almost certainly

0:15:06.960 --> 0:15:10.240
<v Speaker 8>need democratic health. So there are going to be some

0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:13.520
<v Speaker 8>significant tax cuts that will be slanted towards corporations the wealthy.

0:15:13.520 --> 0:15:16.280
<v Speaker 8>There's going to be massive regulation deregulation in ways that

0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:18.640
<v Speaker 8>will be very, very favorable to corporate interest, like that

0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:21.760
<v Speaker 8>is an inevitability with Trump. But the sequencing is completely

0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:24.040
<v Speaker 8>got in the air and depends on you know, getting

0:15:24.200 --> 0:15:27.200
<v Speaker 8>every essentially every single Republican member of Congress degree on

0:15:27.240 --> 0:15:28.080
<v Speaker 8>a policy agenda.

0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:29.320
<v Speaker 9>Good luck.

0:15:29.360 --> 0:15:31.520
<v Speaker 8>I'd rather know if somebody offered me that job, I

0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:32.360
<v Speaker 8>wouldn't want to take it.

0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:35.520
<v Speaker 3>Well, I'm one of the I guess one of the

0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:38.680
<v Speaker 3>more near term issues that needs to be addressed by

0:15:38.800 --> 0:15:42.360
<v Speaker 3>the Trump administrations getting some of their cabinet nominees confirmed

0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:47.000
<v Speaker 3>They've made some major headway with Secretary Rubio, but still

0:15:47.040 --> 0:15:51.640
<v Speaker 3>some contentious ones to come with mister Hegseth, RFK Junior,

0:15:52.280 --> 0:15:54.400
<v Speaker 3>Tolca Gabbard to name three.

0:15:55.000 --> 0:15:56.440
<v Speaker 6>How do you expect this to play out?

0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:02.240
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, So Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have said that

0:16:02.240 --> 0:16:05.640
<v Speaker 8>they're not voting for Pete Haggseth, so we're basically down

0:16:05.680 --> 0:16:09.200
<v Speaker 8>to they'd have to lose two more Republican senators. The

0:16:09.280 --> 0:16:11.920
<v Speaker 8>most likely person to flip at this point is Mitch McConnell.

0:16:11.960 --> 0:16:14.840
<v Speaker 8>After that, I don't really see a fourth. So my

0:16:14.960 --> 0:16:17.520
<v Speaker 8>guess is he's going to get all of these people through.

0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:18.840
<v Speaker 9>And that I mean.

0:16:20.440 --> 0:16:24.760
<v Speaker 8>In particular you think about Hegseth governed to a lesser extent,

0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:28.160
<v Speaker 8>but Cash Battel of the FBI. These are people for

0:16:28.200 --> 0:16:30.960
<v Speaker 8>whom there is no argument that these are people who

0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:32.440
<v Speaker 8>should be running the use agencies right.

0:16:32.360 --> 0:16:34.560
<v Speaker 9>That there is no sense that they're qualified to do so.

0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:36.640
<v Speaker 8>There is nothing in their background that makes it seem

0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:39.560
<v Speaker 8>like they'll be stuff the idea that Pete Hegseth, who

0:16:39.640 --> 0:16:44.000
<v Speaker 8>was fired for mismanagement at two different tiny nonprofits, is

0:16:44.280 --> 0:16:47.040
<v Speaker 8>capable of running the largest bureaucracy on the face of

0:16:47.040 --> 0:16:50.120
<v Speaker 8>the planet. I mean, if you actually right, if you

0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:52.680
<v Speaker 8>said that you actually care about the qualifications, people that

0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:55.560
<v Speaker 8>start laughing, right, Like the idea, it's just absurd. And

0:16:55.640 --> 0:16:58.040
<v Speaker 8>so putting these people in seems a lot more about

0:16:58.280 --> 0:17:00.600
<v Speaker 8>being willing to use the organs of the felt government

0:17:00.960 --> 0:17:04.560
<v Speaker 8>to in, you know, for domestic political purposes, or even

0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:06.520
<v Speaker 8>to go after Trump's enemies than it is some sense

0:17:06.520 --> 0:17:09.919
<v Speaker 8>that like cash, fattel of all people on earth is

0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:12.240
<v Speaker 8>when you can make the FBI a lean, mean crime

0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:13.159
<v Speaker 8>fighting machine.

0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:16.399
<v Speaker 6>Well, I mean, yeah, the counter argument is new blood.

0:17:16.520 --> 0:17:18.280
<v Speaker 3>Maybe that's let's get some of the you know, get

0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:20.520
<v Speaker 3>some new blood downwashed in dc new ways of thinking.

0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:21.880
<v Speaker 9>So I really.

0:17:21.640 --> 0:17:23.560
<v Speaker 8>Appreciate you saying that, because that is what both my

0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:25.600
<v Speaker 8>first two books were about, right, the virtues of new

0:17:25.600 --> 0:17:28.080
<v Speaker 8>blood and the advantages of bringing people in. So you

0:17:28.119 --> 0:17:31.240
<v Speaker 8>will find no one on earth who's more positive about

0:17:31.280 --> 0:17:33.520
<v Speaker 8>the ideas that you can bring in new thinking and

0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:34.600
<v Speaker 8>make new changes than me.

0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:39.040
<v Speaker 9>I believe that. But right, not all changes are good.

0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:43.000
<v Speaker 8>There's a famous the famous thing soldiers and politicians logic,

0:17:43.600 --> 0:17:47.440
<v Speaker 8>you know, we must do something, this is something, therefore

0:17:47.480 --> 0:17:51.320
<v Speaker 8>we must do this right, And that's not right, there

0:17:51.320 --> 0:17:53.600
<v Speaker 8>are many, many more ways to break an institution than

0:17:53.600 --> 0:17:55.400
<v Speaker 8>to fix it. And if you look at the Pentagon,

0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:58.879
<v Speaker 8>no institution needs massive reform more than the Pentagon. And

0:17:59.000 --> 0:18:01.120
<v Speaker 8>if you need it to do that, you would ask, say,

0:18:01.359 --> 0:18:04.480
<v Speaker 8>you know, I'm someone who had deep expertise and running

0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:06.960
<v Speaker 8>a major procurement program or someone.

0:18:06.680 --> 0:18:08.760
<v Speaker 9>Who had really understood the federal bureaucracy.

0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:12.640
<v Speaker 8>You would not get someone who had, you know, essentially

0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:16.040
<v Speaker 8>was fired for mismanagement from their for last two joints. Right,

0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:19.280
<v Speaker 8>if you were running if Apple, if Apple said they

0:18:19.280 --> 0:18:20.960
<v Speaker 8>were going to replace Tim Cook with someone like that,

0:18:21.000 --> 0:18:22.959
<v Speaker 8>you might say, well, Apple could use some fresh thinking,

0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:25.480
<v Speaker 8>but I'm not sure that's where the fresh thinking.

0:18:25.200 --> 0:18:26.159
<v Speaker 9>Is likely to come from.

0:18:26.520 --> 0:18:30.240
<v Speaker 2>Okay, well fresh me decide. Doge is obviously front and

0:18:30.240 --> 0:18:34.520
<v Speaker 2>center too. We saw the Vekwamaswami leaving Doge to maybe

0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:38.199
<v Speaker 2>govern for governor, the lawyer apparently leaving dough She was

0:18:38.200 --> 0:18:40.720
<v Speaker 2>there for like what seventy two hours? What are you

0:18:40.760 --> 0:18:42.080
<v Speaker 2>making on all of these headlines?

0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:45.440
<v Speaker 8>So the real thing that it was that happened, and

0:18:46.040 --> 0:18:47.960
<v Speaker 8>you know, and it is a real distinction between the

0:18:47.960 --> 0:18:50.800
<v Speaker 8>first Trump administration the second Trump administration is the second

0:18:50.840 --> 0:18:53.879
<v Speaker 8>one seems to be a lot more bureaucratically competent. And

0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:57.439
<v Speaker 8>so what they essentially did was repurpose the Federal Digital Service,

0:18:57.440 --> 0:18:59.480
<v Speaker 8>which was created in response to the you know, the

0:18:59.520 --> 0:19:03.560
<v Speaker 8>Obama Care web page fiasco, to improve the technical capabilities

0:19:03.560 --> 0:19:06.720
<v Speaker 8>of the federal government. They repurpose that into DOGE, which

0:19:06.760 --> 0:19:10.479
<v Speaker 8>gives DOGE access to essentially all the non classified information

0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:12.679
<v Speaker 8>in the federal government, gives it in every It is

0:19:12.720 --> 0:19:16.840
<v Speaker 8>a brilliant bureaucratic move, and it suggests that DOGE may

0:19:17.040 --> 0:19:20.560
<v Speaker 8>actually have a lot more impact on the government than

0:19:20.600 --> 0:19:23.320
<v Speaker 8>we had originally thought it would when it first started

0:19:23.359 --> 0:19:25.160
<v Speaker 8>looking like kind of a you know, essentially a committee

0:19:25.160 --> 0:19:26.280
<v Speaker 8>that was an issue a report.

0:19:27.600 --> 0:19:29.040
<v Speaker 9>The problem there again is.

0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:30.720
<v Speaker 8>Going back is what we just saw, for example, is

0:19:30.720 --> 0:19:35.000
<v Speaker 8>a communications freeze. For example at NIH, so NIHS stopped

0:19:35.000 --> 0:19:39.040
<v Speaker 8>reviewing all grants, they've stopped working with all scientists. NIH

0:19:39.119 --> 0:19:42.200
<v Speaker 8>is the foundation for basically all biomedical research, not just

0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:44.080
<v Speaker 8>in the United States, but really in the entire world.

0:19:44.119 --> 0:19:45.080
<v Speaker 9>It spends forty seven and.

0:19:45.080 --> 0:19:48.080
<v Speaker 8>A half billion dollars a year, and biomedical research in

0:19:48.119 --> 0:19:50.200
<v Speaker 8>the world, things that we rely on to cure diseases

0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:54.240
<v Speaker 8>just doesn't happen without anih. That kind of a freeze

0:19:54.359 --> 0:19:58.320
<v Speaker 8>does real meaningful harm to scientific research for every day

0:19:58.359 --> 0:19:59.840
<v Speaker 8>that it goes on, and it seems to have an

0:19:59.840 --> 0:20:03.280
<v Speaker 8>is quite propriciously without even any sort of explanation as

0:20:03.280 --> 0:20:05.240
<v Speaker 8>to why we're doing this or how it makes sense.

0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:07.760
<v Speaker 8>So that kind of thing is where if those does

0:20:07.800 --> 0:20:10.359
<v Speaker 8>things like that, I'd be pretty concerned, as opposed to,

0:20:10.600 --> 0:20:13.199
<v Speaker 8>you know, optimistic where the massive federal government reforms will

0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:13.719
<v Speaker 8>all overview.

0:20:13.920 --> 0:20:15.760
<v Speaker 6>Yep, all right, wewtam, thank you so much. We appreciate it.

0:20:15.800 --> 0:20:19.720
<v Speaker 3>Gout Themconda, Professor at the Yale School of Management.

0:20:20.480 --> 0:20:25.159
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

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