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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News, Single Best Idea, the

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Speaker 1: highlight of the week, well not the highlight, but it

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Speaker 1: was fun. Mark Messier joined. Just wonderful to have him on.

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Speaker 1: Of course, many of you always associate Mark Messier with

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Speaker 1: a certain style of hockey for the New York Rangers,

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Speaker 1: but really a claim happened earlier with the Edmonton Oilers.

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Speaker 1: Now they're in the Stanley Cup and we talked to

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Speaker 1: mister Messi about that. He seemed to tilt to the

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Speaker 1: Florida Panthers. But in honor of Mark Messier and his

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Speaker 1: great charity in New York City, the Mark Messier Foundation,

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Speaker 1: and his effort with first responders, let's do a hat

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Speaker 1: trick of women here on single Best Idea. Captain Kaminski

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Speaker 1: is in Boston, out of the Andrew Low Combine at MIT.

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Speaker 1: It's hugely math based, it's hugely trend based. She and

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Speaker 1: I are on the same page on that. Let's get

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Speaker 1: right to it. Here is Kathy Kaminsky on this great

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Speaker 1: bull market.

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Speaker 2: I'm a little concerned. I mean, the signals are still

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Speaker 2: there positive for equities, but this week really made me

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Speaker 2: pause thinking that some of the themes have changed significantly.

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Speaker 2: We saw massive synchronous moves cross asset. Look at what

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Speaker 2: happened to yields, I mean, they just plummeted over the

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Speaker 2: last week. You've also seen commodity markets really spooked me

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Speaker 2: the most. I think we saw massive reversal and commodity

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Speaker 2: trends which have been very higher for longer pro inflationary,

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Speaker 2: and the dollars also struggled. So it's been a very

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Speaker 2: risk off week in some sense. So we had a

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Speaker 2: really different moves than we've seen earlier this year, which

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Speaker 2: makes me nervous and.

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Speaker 1: Really underscore their Katie Kominsky's comments on commodities. We underplayed

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Speaker 1: that this week, but it'll be fast to see, particularly

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Speaker 1: in the industrial metal space, what copper does here migrating

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Speaker 1: through Oh this newsflow, that news flow in the FED,

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Speaker 1: and of course next week's CPI on the same day

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Speaker 1: as the FED, that will be sporting to say the

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Speaker 1: least will stagger from eight thirty to two pm, and

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Speaker 1: whatever the Fed decides were very much now the idea

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Speaker 1: that they will not move the yield like ECB did

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Speaker 1: move the rate, I should say, like the ECB, like

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Speaker 1: Leguard did. A city group I know just as we

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Speaker 1: go to taping here moving from July to September on

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Speaker 1: their first rate cut. Speaking of rate cut, there's people

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Speaker 1: going the other way. What if we saw a rate

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Speaker 1: increase due to a buoyant economy. We got an update

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Speaker 1: from Lindsay peg as a steefol. She's very lonely out

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Speaker 1: there saying just hold off on the rate cut chit chat.

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Speaker 1: She emphasized that again maybe pulling away a little bit

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Speaker 1: from the rate increase. On where we are with jobs,

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Speaker 1: Lindsay pigs, I do.

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Speaker 3: Cut against reading in too much to the headline payrolls number,

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Speaker 3: because we are starting to see somewhat of divergence between

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Speaker 3: the payrolls and the household survey. Payrolls are consistently reaching

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Speaker 3: new highs month after months, but the household survey really

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Speaker 3: has shown somewhat of fatigue and plateauing over the past

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Speaker 3: I would say six to eight months. The disconnect, of

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Speaker 3: course reflecting the fact that we consistently under account the

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Speaker 3: working age population, particularly now as we see these large

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Speaker 3: flows of immigration coming into the economy, legal and illegal.

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Speaker 3: But also what we're seeing is this shift in the

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Speaker 3: demand or the type of jobs being created in terms

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Speaker 3: of full time versus part time. Now, I haven't dug

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Speaker 3: into the details of this report specifically, last month was

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Speaker 3: almost entirely full time, but if we go prior to

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Speaker 3: that six to eight months, that was almost entirely part

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Speaker 3: time employment, which as we know, part time hires typically

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Speaker 3: have more than one gig and then of course you're

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Speaker 3: counted more than once in the payroll report, which could

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Speaker 3: artificially inflate that number. So again, still positive, but I

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Speaker 3: do think there's some underlying signs of the economy starting

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Speaker 3: to cool, that rebalancing.

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Speaker 1: As I mentioned Lins Pigs with stephil we told there'd

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Speaker 1: be a bonus round today. We usually do two voices,

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Speaker 1: but we've got to do three voices. And you know,

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Speaker 1: it's sort of like at the end the Raiders of

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Speaker 1: the Lost Ark, where they find the Arc and they

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Speaker 1: put it in storage in the Pentagon and the huge

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Speaker 1: storage chamber, and you know, the ARC's lost forever somewhere

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Speaker 1: in the battles of the federal government of the United States.

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Speaker 1: That's how people feel about Claudius Sim's research. I mean,

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Speaker 1: she really has owned the high ground this year. An

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Speaker 1: academic zeitgeist, hugely popular, deservedly popular, and the PhD from

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Speaker 1: Michigan with their fed work has become a real statement

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Speaker 1: of yes, this is how I measure a recession, and no,

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Speaker 1: we're not near a And of course she looks like

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Speaker 1: a genius right now in this continued sizable boom economy.

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Speaker 1: We talked to Claudia Sam about very serious things. Look

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Opinion, her essay out this week forceful and inflation,

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Speaker 1: and of course with Claudia Sam, you've got to go

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Speaker 1: to the anecdotal inflation in the Sam kitchen. And once

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Speaker 1: again it's about her damn cats. I think I'm doing

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Speaker 1: what a lot of Americans are.

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Speaker 2: When things get more expensive, you don't switch to a

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Speaker 2: cheaper brand. Puffy Kitty, She's more than happy to eat

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Speaker 2: drive Purina cat food.

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Speaker 1: It was on sale last week. Oh, switching from Science

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Speaker 1: diet over to Purina. It's out there in the zeitgeisten

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Speaker 1: Doctor Sam living it with Puffy the Cat. We're trying

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Speaker 1: to make this six minutes so smart. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: of good podcasts out there. Look to David Guraz the

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Speaker 1: Big Take if you want to look at a twenty

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Speaker 1: minute special really well produced to the themes of the

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Speaker 1: moment that Bloomberg does see we're trying to slip in

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Speaker 1: six minutes as smart. We try to do that on

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Speaker 1: Apple podcasts. It is a single best idea