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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock Bet. We

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Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the

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Speaker 1: show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise

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Speaker 1: guys pay attention. I am Chad Mellman. I am joined

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Speaker 1: as I am for every episode by my co host,

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Speaker 1: my companion, my campadre professional Better, my bff Simon Hunter. Hello,

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Speaker 1: Simon Chat.

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Speaker 2: How are we doing?

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Speaker 1: We're stoked, We're ready, We're locked and loaded. We got uh,

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Speaker 1: what do we got? We got seventy two hours until

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Speaker 1: ninety six hours until the Chicago Bears kick off. We're

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Speaker 1: four days away from the Indiana Hoosiers taken on the

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Speaker 1: Miami Hurricanes. We got arctic weather in Chicago. As a fan,

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Speaker 1: all I've done is watch the video, the NFL Films

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Speaker 1: video they just put out about the Bears comeback. There's

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Speaker 1: this great, great funny video on Twitter right now by

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Speaker 1: this guy Mark Morgan, who does a looking back at

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Speaker 1: the Bears comeback from twenty seventy four. It's freaking hilarious.

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Speaker 1: I recommend everyone go watch it. It's awesome. And then

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Speaker 1: we get to do this show together, which is a privilege.

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Speaker 1: It's our Thursday Wildcard episode, we're going to narrow down

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Speaker 1: the options on request to find five picks we agree

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Speaker 1: on for this week. Subscribe to Sharper Square on YouTube,

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Speaker 1: Apple Pods, Spotify. After we're done covering the games today,

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Speaker 1: we have a bonus for everybody. As you all know,

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Speaker 1: I am heading the hard Rock Stadium for Monday's college

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Speaker 1: football National Championship game between the Hoosiers and the Hurricanes.

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Speaker 1: At the end of today's show, we're going to have

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Speaker 1: two things. One, some really interesting feedback from hard Rock

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Speaker 1: bet on betting markets for the game. You know, they're

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Speaker 1: the only legal sportsbook in Florida, so it's interesting to

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Speaker 1: see what they're getting on this market. We'll share some

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Speaker 1: of that. We'll also bring on one of Matt Mitchell's

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Speaker 1: favorite college football betting experts to give us some picks

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Speaker 1: for the game at the end of the show, So

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Speaker 1: stay tuned for some college football breakdown for the National

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Speaker 1: Championship game. All right, let's get into this thing.

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Speaker 2: Well, at first, I mean, it skipped over what Tomlin. Tom.

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Speaker 3: I know you're so obsessed with your own life, Chad,

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Speaker 3: but the rest of us, no one gives a fuck

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Speaker 3: about the Bears or Indiana Hoosiers.

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Speaker 2: Tomlin.

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Speaker 1: By the way, you're wrong. We're both I am not.

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Speaker 1: I am right now rooting for both of America's teams,

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Speaker 1: both of them.

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Speaker 2: Again, that all cares about the Hoosiers are Indiana the Bears.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk Tomlin. It's a fine line between, you know,

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Speaker 2: drinking wine and squashing greats.

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Speaker 3: How did you skip over, Tomlin? Chad Hard You're too excited,

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Speaker 3: You're too happy. I don't like you got me looking

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Speaker 3: up what's what's the Rams money line?

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Speaker 2: With the Hurricane money line? Right now? You got you

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Speaker 2: got me making a hate bet. But oh no, I

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Speaker 2: got to remember. They can't believe they got out of

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Speaker 2: our guy. Tomlin did, and they did it the smart way.

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Speaker 2: What we said about horrible.

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Speaker 3: I cannot believe they let Horball walk out the door

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Speaker 3: for no trade. Aspect Tomlin, at least they retained his rights.

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Speaker 3: Maybe he goes do does TV for a year, or

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Speaker 3: maybe he takes one meeting in that boardroom and he's like,

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Speaker 3: my god, I cannot do be with these suits.

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Speaker 2: I need to get back to my guys and get

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Speaker 2: back to the NFL.

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Speaker 3: So I mean the Tomlin stuff, I mean, you're obviously

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Speaker 3: set with your your head coach, but whether nine other

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Speaker 3: vacancies right now, these everyone's like, oh my god, Tomlin's available. Man,

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Speaker 3: It's never had a losing season and again, we can

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Speaker 3: go through the quarterback list, just a ton of trash

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Speaker 3: and had a winning season every year, so I could.

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Speaker 3: I was honestly in shock, like my mouth hit the floor.

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Speaker 3: They let him go, but I think we had heard

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Speaker 3: a little bit of whispers throughout it, right, he was

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Speaker 3: a little burned out with the team, the coach, like,

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Speaker 3: not the coaches, but just in general football, right, nineteen

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Speaker 3: years is a long time, So yeah, I was just floored.

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Speaker 3: I can't believe it. Right now, we lost Harball and Tomlin.

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Speaker 3: It was our bread and butter chat, our favorite matchup

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Speaker 3: every year, and just like that, it's over.

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Speaker 2: Buddy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I blacked out. You were talking about Tomlin, But

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Speaker 1: I was really just singing the Indiana Fight song in

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Speaker 1: my head the whole time. I'm kidding. Yeah, it's we

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Speaker 1: got a poor one out killing it. You're killing it,

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Speaker 1: poor one out. A great career for Mike Tomlin. He

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Speaker 1: has made us so much money. He has made Matt

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Speaker 1: Mitchell so happy because of all the Tomlin drops. He's

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Speaker 1: been able to cut over the years. The guy has

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Speaker 1: been a pillar of consistency.

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Speaker 2: Hey man, I don't care how the other thirty one

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Speaker 2: are doing it.

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Speaker 1: And you think about it, since Ben Roethlisberger retired, what

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Speaker 1: he has done with the Kenny Picketts and the Mason

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Speaker 1: Rudolph's and obviously the Aaron Rodgers and the Duc Hodges,

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Speaker 1: and I can't even think of all the mediocre to

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Speaker 1: bad quarterbacks. And this guy has figured out a way

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Speaker 1: every single year, in every single game to put his

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Speaker 1: team in a position to have that voodoo magic that

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Speaker 1: Tomlin has and get the turnover, get the takeaway, muddy

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Speaker 1: up the game, be patient. Really just a clinic in coaching.

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Speaker 1: I continue to not understand why owners, why management would

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Speaker 1: be anxious to get rid of coaches who have proven

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Speaker 1: to be winners year after year after year. Same with Harbaugh. Look,

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Speaker 1: we're seeing the floor has not been let go by

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Speaker 1: the Packers that are working on getting him an extension.

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Speaker 1: I think it's the right thing to do. Like you

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Speaker 1: don't want to like just think there's the grass is

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Speaker 1: not always greener. There's been so many instances where it

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Speaker 1: just doesn't work a second time, Like you got a

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Speaker 1: good coach, Keep the good fucking coach. You think the

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Speaker 1: Titans wouldn't love to have Mike Vrabel right now? How

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Speaker 1: stupid and impetuous was that?

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Speaker 3: Like you got the guy Harball is already signing with

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Speaker 3: the Giants. Yeah, even a week later. Like I just again,

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Speaker 3: the Ravens, they do have a good owner. I'm not

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Speaker 3: going to crap on their owner. The guy's smart. I

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Speaker 3: think that was the first time he spoke in.

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Speaker 1: Like eighties, seven years and he was great.

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Speaker 3: And you know that that to me, Like I told you,

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Speaker 3: I feel like an emotional decision. Apparently did it via

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Speaker 3: phone while Harball was driving home. That's that's a story

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Speaker 3: that came out. So you know the fact that this

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Speaker 3: man is already signed to potentially be the giants next

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Speaker 3: head coach. Just again, people we always talk about don't

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Speaker 3: let emotions stick control and that's Pittsburgh. They look like

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Speaker 3: the more level headed organization right now compared to the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: Look. The Ravens owner's h press conference was great. The

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Speaker 1: best line was someone asked him about Lamar Jackson having

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Speaker 1: any power in the and the decision about who the

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Speaker 1: next coach is going to be. Yeah, and he was like,

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Speaker 1: I love my players. I'll listen to my players. They

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Speaker 1: don't have any power. I'm the one with the power.

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Speaker 1: I make the decision. And it was just stream well,

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Speaker 1: he said.

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Speaker 2: I want to hear everyone's opinions.

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Speaker 3: Though, yeah, of course you put that caveat, but I'm

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Speaker 3: with you at the very any he doubted the eye

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Speaker 3: and said, no, I got the power.

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Speaker 1: That was like, by the way, that's the billionaire mindset,

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Speaker 1: and that's how every owner thinks, like they do not

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Speaker 1: worry about the noise that is happening anywhere else. They

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Speaker 1: own the team. Everyone else is working for them. That's it.

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Speaker 1: That's the bottom line. Who's going to work for us

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Speaker 1: this weekend, simon, who's going to work for us? Who's

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Speaker 1: going to turn our playoffs around? Who's going to make

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Speaker 1: things go? Every week? We give it our picks every week.

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Speaker 1: Your fellow professional betters call to give you some feedback.

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Speaker 1: It's time to summarize those opinions. It's a special divisional

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Speaker 1: round edition of sharp Call.

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Speaker 3: I have to answer this pot all right, rain range

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Speaker 3: telephone range.

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Speaker 4: Somebody say it maybe want to do man?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, off the top, the two big ones hear from

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Speaker 3: a lot of pros about with the forty nine ers,

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Speaker 3: especially seven and a half, and this Patriots team of

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Speaker 3: minus three, which I'm not gonna lie to you, I'm

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Speaker 3: having a tough time getting on board. But hearing them

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Speaker 3: breaking down the reasoning for both of it is again,

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Speaker 3: the forty nine Ers one just makes sense to me,

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Speaker 3: It sounds sound.

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Speaker 2: The Patriots ones are so interesting.

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Speaker 3: It's just, you know, we've talked about these great defenses

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Speaker 3: and how they are in the playoffs and how much

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Speaker 3: tough will be for Drake May. But even looking at

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Speaker 3: the live line, it is moving to one to three

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Speaker 3: and a half. So yeah, clearly these pros are finally

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Speaker 3: taking their position on it. But yeah, for the other

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Speaker 3: two games, you know, it's really split.

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Speaker 2: Again.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna dive into it more obviously, but there's no

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Speaker 3: you know, six figure guy coming in on the Bears

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Speaker 3: or the Rams, and like, I just don't see groups

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Speaker 3: taking that larger position.

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Speaker 2: At this point. We did talk about the total.

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Speaker 3: I've heard some smart money come in pretty heavy on

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Speaker 3: that total and take the under. On the flip side

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Speaker 3: that Denver Bills game. I know, a really smart respected

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Speaker 3: group they came in on the over. I think it

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Speaker 3: was on Monday or Tuesday, I think where it came

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Speaker 3: out that there's only the Bills only can dress three receivers.

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Speaker 3: Right now, I think they have three, three healthy receivers,

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Speaker 3: and I haven't heard a whisper of anyone else touching

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Speaker 3: that over and if anything, it's come down.

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Speaker 2: I've seen a couple of forty five and a half

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Speaker 2: numbers on that one. So that was the game I

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Speaker 2: talking about. The weather was good. I honestly wanted to

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Speaker 2: be on the over.

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Speaker 3: I could see, I could have seen both of offenses moving

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Speaker 3: the ball like we always talked about Josh Allen. It's

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Speaker 3: you know, he might struggle in the first half, you know,

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Speaker 3: in the second half, he just he lights up these

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Speaker 3: defenses what he does.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I was upset.

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Speaker 3: I thought it was gonna be more pros all over Denver,

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Speaker 3: you know, the public all over the Bills. It really

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Speaker 3: was two or three really smart groups came in on

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Speaker 3: Denver with me. I guess I should say, with the

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Speaker 3: plus one and a halfs and you know, we all

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Speaker 3: grabbed it. Now it's flipped and it's like, okay, now

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Speaker 3: all these other groups that are coming in the Bills

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Speaker 3: at plus one and a half like, I know plenty

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Speaker 3: of guys who've been waiting to get the bills of

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Speaker 3: plus one and a half. So that's a number I

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Speaker 3: just don't see flipping back to Denver. I just think

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Speaker 3: if it did flip again, there'd be so much resistance

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Speaker 3: they'd just go back to the bills. So really interesting.

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Speaker 3: But the books, right, they're gonna need Denver here and

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Speaker 3: they're letting a hold as a favorite. So that's that's

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Speaker 3: a really fun gamo excited breakdown. But yeah, the the

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Speaker 3: professionals those two games, the Bears rams very split, Bill's Broncos,

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Speaker 3: they're very split.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's get into it. Reminder, we won't be

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Speaker 1: doing our normal Sunday morning and evening shows. We will

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Speaker 1: do a Saturday morning preview show. We will do a

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Speaker 1: Sunday evening review show. But that is coming. That is

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Speaker 1: coming after the divisional games.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you're gonna be ursisking me a late night for

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Speaker 2: you and Miami, buddy.

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Speaker 1: It's it's gonna be a very late night. It's I

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Speaker 1: don't even know what I'm doing yet because I got

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Speaker 1: to watch the Bears game. My wife is coming down.

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Speaker 2: My buddy, You'll be doing lots of coffee for Chad.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, my buddy Matt and his wife are coming down.

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Speaker 1: We're all going to have to figure out. We're watching

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Speaker 1: the Bears game, and I'm gonna have to figure out

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Speaker 1: how to get from wherever we're watching the Bears game

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Speaker 1: to my hotel to set up and do this postgame show.

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Speaker 1: It's all going to be it's gonna be like broadcast news.

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Speaker 1: We're just going to be racing to get on the air.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be super exciting. And by then, I

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Speaker 1: don't know. Will I be happy, will I be sad?

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Speaker 1: Will I be turning the corner and moving on to Indiana.

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Speaker 1: I don't know yet. I don't know. Will I be

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Speaker 1: thinking about Mike Tomlin. We just don't know. Get the

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Speaker 1: shows at sharper Square on YouTube. Subscribing like the video.

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Speaker 1: While you're at it, you can subscribe at sharper Square

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Speaker 1: on Apple POD's Spotify, et cetera. All right, remember contest

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Speaker 1: lines this week for the contest sides and totals for

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Speaker 1: all the games. Saturday, January seventeenth, four to thirty pm

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Speaker 1: Eastern Buffalo is a one point underdog at Denver. The

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Speaker 1: total down to forty six and a.

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Speaker 4: Half Sunday sing.

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Speaker 1: As you predicted. As you just mentioned in sharp calls,

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Speaker 1: this was Simon says. The game has flipped, Denver is

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Speaker 1: now one point favorite. Definitely a wise guy move, even

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Speaker 1: if it's just a few groups, because the majority of

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Speaker 1: the bets are on the Bills, so we know the

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Speaker 1: public is coming in on the Bills. Here the under

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Speaker 1: to me, and you just alluded to it. I leaned

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Speaker 1: over on Tuesday and sort of over the last forty

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Speaker 1: eight hours, I flipped my script a little bit. Think

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Speaker 1: about the the Bills run defense. Why would the Broncos

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Speaker 1: do anything other than run the ball? And then think

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Speaker 1: about what the Broncos can do against the pass, especially

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Speaker 1: in man defense, which the Bills are terrible at. Why

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Speaker 1: the and the Bills being so good a running why

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Speaker 1: would they do anything other than run the ball. So

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Speaker 1: by the stats and by the analytics and by the schemes,

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Speaker 1: this should be an under. And as I say it,

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Speaker 1: it means it'll go to eighty five points.

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Speaker 2: And that's how I'm feelings. So we have to take

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Speaker 2: at least one over, don't we.

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Speaker 3: All the other yeas feel way more confident about the

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Speaker 3: unders year and this one I'll be patient.

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Speaker 2: The pros are going to keep betting the under.

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Speaker 3: Maybe we get lucky, we get another key number, it

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Speaker 3: gets down to forty four, that'd be amazing. So I'll

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Speaker 3: be a little patient. Like I literally just checked the

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Speaker 3: weather before he came on here. It's gonna be in

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Speaker 3: the forties, high thirties, Sonny. I mean it's it's gonna

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Speaker 3: be perfect football weather a mile high. So looking at

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Speaker 3: both these teams, yes, the defenses on both these teams,

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Speaker 3: their strengths this year have been stops in the red zone.

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Speaker 3: But we see all the time in the playoffs, right,

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Speaker 3: It's just it doesn't really go like you're used to

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Speaker 3: in the regular season. And I'll give out the one

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Speaker 3: glaring stat chat. This is what if you're one that's

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Speaker 3: you want to keep fading me, I totally get it

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Speaker 3: if you want to be on the bills here.

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Speaker 2: This is the one stat that literally scared the shit

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Speaker 2: at me about our guy, Evan Abrams.

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Speaker 3: The line has flipped from a team being favored by

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Speaker 3: one and a half to the other to now being

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Speaker 3: a dog five other times in the playoffs. The record

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Speaker 3: of the team that flipped too, So it flipped from

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Speaker 3: the Broncos being a favorite to them or you know,

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Speaker 3: a dog to them being the favorite. The teams that

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Speaker 3: become the favorite of like the Broncos they are one

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Speaker 3: and four is exact.

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Speaker 2: It's not historically a good spot, but it's.

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Speaker 1: Not a historically a good spot in the regular season either.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we we made some money this year betting

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Speaker 1: against the team when the line flipped, and either we

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Speaker 1: wanted to get ahead of the move or we went

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Speaker 1: with the team that became the underdog.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and we also got lucky.

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Speaker 3: I think in our one contest, the week one, we

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Speaker 3: had the Ravens plus one and a half and it flipped.

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Speaker 3: That's right, And obviously it covered again Ravens, though you

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Speaker 3: could have bet that for four months a plus one

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Speaker 3: and a half.

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Speaker 2: So that's stuff on butt. Yeah.

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Speaker 3: The last time it happened twenty January nineteenth, twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 3: Probably remember it Ravens Bills, same exact scenario. The Bills

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Speaker 3: were the favorite, it flipped, the Ravens became the favorite.

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Speaker 3: They lost twenty seven to twenty five Eagles Chiefs Super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: Obviously I don't have.

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Speaker 3: To mention it again, Eagles did lose that game, and

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Speaker 3: then I was shocked it had been a while. The

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Speaker 3: last time it happened was in twenty fifteen Super Bowl

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Speaker 3: once again, New England Patriots Seahawks. I couldn't believe that

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Speaker 3: it's free. So the spread it was New England obviously

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Speaker 3: as a dog. It flipped then be a favorite and

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Speaker 3: they won. We all know, twenty eight to twenty four

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Speaker 3: before that same thing, Super Bowl Seahawks Denver. Obviously, people

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Speaker 3: remember that when that line flipped, Denver just got rolled.

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Speaker 1: What was that forty three, forty three to eight something

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Speaker 1: like that.

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Speaker 3: And then the last one twenty twelve Giants against the

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Speaker 3: forty nine ers.

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Speaker 2: Obviously the line flipped.

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Speaker 3: The Giants won that game, beat beat on the road,

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Speaker 3: went to uh Cano stick and won that game twenty

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Speaker 3: to seventeen.

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Speaker 2: So you know, we just we just we see the

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Speaker 2: data here.

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Speaker 3: Obviously it points out that it's not great to be

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Speaker 3: on the flip side, which is making me a little nervous.

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Speaker 3: Maybe I can talk us out of putting our contest here.

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Speaker 3: Obviously I wish our contest. Let let us put first

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Speaker 3: halfs in here. It's like no brainer. I want to

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Speaker 3: get on Denver first half once again. I as much

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Speaker 3: as I hurt that Jags game. It's it was a

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Speaker 3: little bit of unluckiness there. And I you know Denver here,

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Speaker 3: we've talked about a Sean Payton on script that first

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Speaker 3: thirty plays. We expect it to be scores, right, I mean,

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Speaker 3: he's been game planning this thirty plays for two and

337
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Speaker 3: a half weeks now, so I'm really excited to see

338
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Speaker 3: what trump Bank comes out with. But yeah, I was

339
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Speaker 3: so confident, honestly on this Denver line because like all right,

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Speaker 3: perfectly flipped despite every bookmaker I've talked to, it's all Bills.

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Speaker 2: Money, all the teasers.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they can't get enough of seven and a

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Speaker 3: half point teasers on this Bills team. And as soon

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Speaker 3: as I saw that staff from Evan, I goes, oh

345
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Speaker 3: my god, am I a dead man walking here taking this?

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Speaker 2: But we talk all the time. That's it's a super

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Speaker 2: small sample.

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Speaker 3: Not going to try to react to it too much,

349
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Speaker 3: but I'm definitely gonna drop my figure him out from

350
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Speaker 3: this one. This was gonna be a bigger bet for me.

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Speaker 3: I'm being a little more patient here because, like anyone else,

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Speaker 3: as soon as you see that Josh Allen's down to

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Speaker 3: three healthy receivers and it's you know two guys that

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Speaker 3: were off the streets, not even a couple of weeks ago.

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Speaker 2: We get it.

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Speaker 3: He can overcome all these superman It's a man with

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Speaker 3: a bad leg, a bad foot, a possible concussion on

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Speaker 3: a short week on the road to Mile High.

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Speaker 1: It's like, don't forget he hurt his finger too.

360
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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's all stacked against him, and he's just

361
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Speaker 3: he's the goat, not the goat. I mean, he's great,

362
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Speaker 3: but it's like, if there's any other quarterback, me and

363
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Speaker 3: Chat would be putting our second mortgage on our health

364
00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 3: and betting this Denver Bronco team. But Josh Allen scares us.

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Speaker 3: So I don't know about you. I'm still I'm still

366
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Speaker 3: on my position, but I I just see this number,

367
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Speaker 3: just feel like that Bear's number. I can easily see

368
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Speaker 3: this guy in a two and a half three by

369
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Speaker 3: kickoff on this Bill's side. I just I really do

370
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Speaker 3: think a lot of professionals will coming on this Denver team.

371
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Speaker 3: Is that he goes longer, just because all the underline numbers,

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Speaker 3: like the the data really.

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Speaker 2: Favors this Denver team. Chatter I talked about their run game.

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Speaker 3: They're probably the second best greater offensive line right behind

375
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Speaker 3: this Bills team. And you know we talked about the

376
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Speaker 3: Denver has got a great d line, the Bills do not.

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Speaker 3: So it could be a game where you know, it's

378
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Speaker 3: one in the trenches like most games. But at the

379
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Speaker 3: end of the day, you know, people when they bet

380
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Speaker 3: this one, it's kind of simply they're gonna bet on

381
00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:42,719
Speaker 3: the quarterback. They're gonna take a position. I might really

382
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Speaker 3: about the bet on bone nicks of the favorite over Josh.

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Speaker 1: I think that's it.

384
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Speaker 4: Alert here, Josh Allen's.

385
00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:04,760
Speaker 1: Shot trugs to excuse me, touchdown?

386
00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:07,680
Speaker 3: How many quarterbacks have you ever seen brdle anyone?

387
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Speaker 4: Goodness, there's no fears, no way he was down. Oh

388
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Speaker 4: my god.

389
00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:29,440
Speaker 3: The demands to do something about this out of reaches

390
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:32,159
Speaker 3: man making louder and louder.

391
00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:38,439
Speaker 1: Josh Allen is like the night in Monty Python. You know,

392
00:19:38,600 --> 00:19:41,680
Speaker 1: they cut off his arm, they cut off his other arm.

393
00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:42,920
Speaker 2: Just a scratch, just.

394
00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:46,440
Speaker 1: A flesh wound, just a flesh wound. It's betting against

395
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Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. It's that's that's why they totally is so

396
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:54,000
Speaker 1: scary because we've seen with both of these teams. Bonix

397
00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:58,320
Speaker 1: had multiple double digit comebacks in the fourth quarter this year.

398
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:04,560
Speaker 1: This team the the Bills last week, and the Jags

399
00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:07,359
Speaker 1: lit it up in the second core in the second

400
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,119
Speaker 1: half almost blew past the total of fifty one and

401
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:14,120
Speaker 1: a half fifty two, right, So like it's a it's

402
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:17,719
Speaker 1: a tricky, tricky game. There's all the metrics in the

403
00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:19,879
Speaker 1: world on the field, there's all the schemes in the

404
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:22,560
Speaker 1: world on the field, but we're looking at the players

405
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:25,280
Speaker 1: and you really got to ask yourself, were betting against

406
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 1: Josh Allen? Are we Bettman on bo Nicks? Like that's

407
00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:34,879
Speaker 1: it's a tricky one. I have no desire right now,

408
00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:37,280
Speaker 1: strong enough feeling for this to be one of the

409
00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:38,440
Speaker 1: contest plays.

410
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:41,639
Speaker 2: Again that over it could say we couldn't make it.

411
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:43,840
Speaker 1: That's like to me, the total is the thing that

412
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:47,080
Speaker 1: I'm most interested in. The side is less appealing to me.

413
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 1: But michel by the way.

414
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Speaker 2: Or twenty twenty one points in the fourth quarter like that,

415
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Speaker 2: That's that's what I mean a lot this season, So yeah,

416
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Speaker 2: I see it.

417
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Speaker 1: I mean, but I feel like we've been seeing that

418
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 1: so much this year so much like just we saw

419
00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:06,560
Speaker 1: it the Steelers Houston game almost went over the Bears,

420
00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 1: Packers game went over because of that, Like how many

421
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 1: times have we seen just these crazy points scored in

422
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Speaker 1: the final quarter. Matt Mitchell has been very quiet about

423
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Speaker 1: this game last week. Couldn't shut up this week, not

424
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Speaker 1: a peep.

425
00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it's I mean what you just talked about,

426
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:26,000
Speaker 3: it's part of the game of I think about these

427
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:27,120
Speaker 3: guys probably didn't sleep.

428
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Speaker 2: That great the night before.

429
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Speaker 3: Right, you're amped up for a game, then you're all

430
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 3: day you're waiting for this game to kick off once again,

431
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:34,360
Speaker 3: you're amped up, fired up.

432
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Speaker 2: You use a lot of that injury in the first half.

433
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Speaker 3: How do you not when we've seen every game, I

434
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:40,360
Speaker 3: mean the Jags, that Bill's game, Think about how hard

435
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Speaker 3: those guys were flying around that first yelf and by

436
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Speaker 3: the second half a lot of those guys that not

437
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,359
Speaker 3: have their legs underneath them. Right, that's part of it

438
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:49,359
Speaker 3: where it's like they go so hard you're so excited

439
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 3: to be in the playoffs. So I think what you're

440
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:52,920
Speaker 3: saying is true, Like we've seen it now in a

441
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,439
Speaker 3: couple of games this year, or these guys with the

442
00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,200
Speaker 3: new kickoff rules and all that. It's it's definitely something

443
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:01,160
Speaker 3: to look into that. It's a maybe that's the place

444
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 3: for us, right just taking these under his first half

445
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 3: and taking the over second half, that's a good idea.

446
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:09,639
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, the second game eight pm. San Francisco at Seattle,

447
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 1: the number has moved from seven and a half to seven.

448
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:13,680
Speaker 1: The total is ticked down from forty five and a

449
00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:19,320
Speaker 1: half to forty five. This was Chad's choice, and I

450
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 1: actually still the total the under. Everything we just said

451
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 1: about the second halves and the fourth quarters being true,

452
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 1: but I think that also plays into when we've got

453
00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 1: volatility with quarterbacks, when we're talking about Josh Allen, bo Nix,

454
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:38,560
Speaker 1: Caleb Williams, I think we have less of that in

455
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:42,200
Speaker 1: this game. And I think if we're trying to sort

456
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 1: of understand the narrative for these games, Mike McDonald is

457
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 1: not going to want to let Sam Donald take this

458
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:55,160
Speaker 1: game away from his defense. Right. He's been much more

459
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:58,920
Speaker 1: conservative the game planning. The Kubiak Klu Kubiak game plan

460
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 1: has been much more conservative with Sam Donald since he

461
00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 1: had that little stretch of multiple turnover games, and they've

462
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:11,880
Speaker 1: really been letting their defense just take control of any

463
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 1: game Seattle's been and it's been working for them. I

464
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:20,880
Speaker 1: think they're thinking play conservative, don't give the Niners any

465
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 1: short field with turnovers. And the Niners they've struggled to

466
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 1: run the ball without Trent Williams and he's playing on

467
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 1: one leg. He's admitted it. They've struggled to run the

468
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 1: ball without George Kittle. He's not going to be in

469
00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 1: the game. So the Seahawks know that they're going to

470
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 1: game plan to be conservative. I can't see why they

471
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 1: under hasn't moved even more.

472
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can tell you there are some pros.

473
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,000
Speaker 3: I know that I have taken position on the over

474
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:52,399
Speaker 3: in this game in the sense that what you just

475
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 3: talk about, right, the forty nine Ers defense is so bad.

476
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:58,399
Speaker 3: They're expecting Sam Donald have a much better game than

477
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 3: he did the previous one where you know, thirteen points.

478
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 2: Like again, they gave him a ton of praises.

479
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 3: He won the game, obviously outplayed Rock Party, but that

480
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,119
Speaker 3: was not that impressive, right they had It was a

481
00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 3: two retizent turnovers where they went from a fourth down.

482
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 3: Then he had a horrible pick. But we've talked about

483
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 3: Sam Donald's not been playing well. So that's why I'm

484
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:18,439
Speaker 3: with you an under. It's like that's a lot of

485
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 3: points we bet on Sam Donald in a playoff game

486
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 3: to put up right, you're if you're making that bet

487
00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:25,400
Speaker 3: you're banking on, then at least at you three touchdowns,

488
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 3: maybe even possibly four if you think they're gonna win

489
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 3: this game.

490
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 2: So I'm with you. I I honestly am shocked too.

491
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 2: This is not six and a half.

492
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 3: I really thought the pros would be like me and

493
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,080
Speaker 3: just hammer this forty nine Ers side. I could not

494
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 3: believe the seven half. I know they're injured and they're

495
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 3: really banged up, but it's so hard to be the

496
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 3: divisional opponent three times, Like, not well this wanna be

497
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:46,680
Speaker 3: the third time, it'd be the second time, but playing

498
00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:49,159
Speaker 3: them three times, it's like you know each other so well.

499
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 3: It's always such close, tight games. And the last time

500
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 3: you played you got the worst possible game from the

501
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 3: forty nine ers. Like everything in that game was just

502
00:24:57,440 --> 00:25:00,479
Speaker 3: so not like them, right, even rock Party, as fearless

503
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 3: as he looked in all these other games, I was

504
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 3: the only game he honestly looked timid and scared.

505
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 2: That Seahawks game like, he just did not look comfortable

506
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 2: at all. He saw on the Eagles game, even stepped

507
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 2: on the pocket.

508
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,959
Speaker 3: He looked comfortable, so much more comfortable compared to that

509
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 3: Seattle game. So, you know, we I gave it all

510
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 3: the stats. You know, he's he's owned rock Perty, has

511
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 3: owned the Seattle team. He's only lost one game in

512
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 3: his career there, he's six and one. You know, I

513
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 3: gave out that Shannahan stat which is really impressive to me.

514
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 3: Wildcard round, Divisional round. Shanahan seven and oh straight up

515
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:30,920
Speaker 3: six and one against the spread when he's an underdog

516
00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 3: on the road in his career, he's three and oh

517
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 3: straight up Shanahan. So he's been a guy in this position.

518
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 3: He's dominated. And again, I don't know if I'm as

519
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 3: confident in the money line I wish I was in

520
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 3: this Seattle, this Niners team. I probably will throw a

521
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 3: little bit on it at some point, but right now,

522
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:49,880
Speaker 3: for me, my my biggest position is obviously the seven

523
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:51,560
Speaker 3: to seven and a half on this forty nine Ers team.

524
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 3: It just feels like way too many points. And yeah,

525
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:56,680
Speaker 3: I'm excited to see where the resistance will because I

526
00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 3: know some pros who they want to be on Seattle.

527
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:00,879
Speaker 3: They wanted to be under the seven and obviously so

528
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 3: the books, well they just leave it at the seven.

529
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:05,239
Speaker 3: Because again we talk all the time, the books are

530
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:08,200
Speaker 3: not they're not here for pushes. They lose on pushes, right,

531
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:11,680
Speaker 3: That's that's the worst case scenarios. So if this doesn't

532
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:13,239
Speaker 3: tick under six and a half, I'm not gonna lie

533
00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:14,480
Speaker 3: to you. I'll be a little nervous ht in the

534
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 3: game time. But the way it's like right now, I

535
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 3: just think the pros will keep coming to the four

536
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 3: Niners team, and most books I've seen it is all

537
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,400
Speaker 3: four hundreds money for the most part, right That's that's

538
00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:25,880
Speaker 3: been the early money here. So, like we talked about,

539
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 3: the public usually doesn't bet till Saturday Sunday, So maybe

540
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 3: I'll have more info come Saturday morning. But yeah, for

541
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 3: right now, I like both our prezentre like the under,

542
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 3: I'm with you on that. I just think it's gonna

543
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 3: be a really close, low scoring game. And you know,

544
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 3: I wish I'd given out honestly the seven and a half,

545
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:42,959
Speaker 3: as Simon says, but just as happy to give out

546
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 3: the seven.

547
00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 2: I think that's still a great number of forty nine ers.

548
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 1: Well, look the seven and a half, I played it

549
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:50,280
Speaker 1: as well with you, but a big number like this also,

550
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 1: it's harder to cover where the total is as low

551
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 1: as it is, the bookmakers are kind of telling us

552
00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 1: something here by setting the total where it is, and

553
00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:02,160
Speaker 1: how the number where it is, and that it's moved

554
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,679
Speaker 1: in the direction of the niners. You got it like

555
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:10,640
Speaker 1: twenty four to seventeen, right, That's that's sort of what

556
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 1: it could feel like, maybe twenty four twenty one, which

557
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 1: is why it was so important to get the half point.

558
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:21,200
Speaker 1: But that's kind of how this game shapes up, because

559
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 1: you've got to believe that Kyle Shanahan will manufacture some points,

560
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 1: like we know he can do that. He's at his

561
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 1: best when he's playing with the fewest number of pieces

562
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 1: on the board and just scheming the fuck out of

563
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 1: a game.

564
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 3: Like you said, they're wounded for sure, like Trent Dreams

565
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:39,440
Speaker 3: is wounded, Caffrey's wounded.

566
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 2: We said they have guys off the streets now playing

567
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,480
Speaker 2: wide receiver and linebacker.

568
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,639
Speaker 3: I'm like you, I'm shocked the total is this high

569
00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 3: because I know it was week one. The first time

570
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:53,119
Speaker 3: they played it was a seventeen thirteen win by the

571
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 3: forty nine ers, and the last time they played was

572
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,760
Speaker 3: a thirteen three game. Yeah, so I'm right there. With

573
00:27:57,840 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 3: you like that was the only reason I'm so hesitant

574
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,399
Speaker 3: to be this under so much. It's like, you know,

575
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 3: my model has it a forty two and a half.

576
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 3: I mean you can there's some books there were still

577
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 3: forty six. I know it's come down to forty five

578
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 3: and a half, but I always just shocked they hunk

579
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,000
Speaker 3: such a big number of this one and looking right

580
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 3: now the different splits, it's it's basically every public book

581
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 3: for the most part, is on the under two sharp books.

582
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,920
Speaker 3: It's heavy money towards the over. So, yeah, the maybe

583
00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,560
Speaker 3: the professionals really do love the over here, and we're

584
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,159
Speaker 3: just underrating how good the Seawks offense can be.

585
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 2: I just I don't know how you can trust Sam

586
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 2: Darnold here.

587
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:34,119
Speaker 1: I agree, I don't know what the professionals are thinking,

588
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,479
Speaker 1: or maybe they don't know what we're thinking. Let's take

589
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:39,920
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626
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Speaker 1: and Virginia. Okay. So the first Sunday game is Houston

627
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,400
Speaker 1: at New England. Very interesting moves here. The line is

628
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,040
Speaker 1: ticked out from three from two and a half to three.

629
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 1: Total has come down from forty one to forty and

630
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 1: a half.

631
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 5: Oh Austin Yomajo.

632
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 1: Nico Collins did not practice, Probably not going to play

633
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 1: from the concussion. Christian Gonzalez, who had been in the protocol,

634
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 1: did practice for the Patriots yesterday. This is a low

635
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 1: total for a game with two good quarterbacks, and yet

636
00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 1: our brass balls better the week presented by a hard

637
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 1: Rock Bett. We're going under forty one.

638
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 2: You know what it takes. It takes brass balls. Yeah,

639
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 2: we love it, and you know we I've talked about it.

640
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,240
Speaker 3: I'm getting bullied here into New England, which you know,

641
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 3: I I'm happy to do it because to me, it

642
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 3: just the Houston one felt so easy. It's like, of course,

643
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 3: you just take Houston here, a team that has the

644
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:44,480
Speaker 3: better defense, as you know, an offense that as much

645
00:31:44,520 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 3: as as crap we give them, hunt consistent. They've been,

646
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:49,239
Speaker 3: you know, down the stretcher, they've been much better than

647
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 3: what the obviousitly, they started the year right, they've kind

648
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:52,400
Speaker 3: of found their way and their identity as the season

649
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 3: going along here.

650
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 2: But the Nico Collins stuff, I'm with people, that's.

651
00:31:56,000 --> 00:31:57,840
Speaker 3: Going to push me over right AF You're losing a

652
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 3: star player Christian Zales is already practicing, so that's a huge,

653
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 3: huge deal to me. The fact they're losing already a

654
00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:08,479
Speaker 3: key piece of their offense. That's what they've struggled, right,

655
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 3: They've struggled consistently moving the ball this season, and now

656
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 3: you're losing Nico, you know, CJ's favorite number.

657
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 2: One just feels like a huge deal.

658
00:32:16,760 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 3: And I do think this will go up to three

659
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 3: and a half and almost every book, right, come, come,

660
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 3: kick go. I can see New England getting up to

661
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 3: that number again. So I love the under love New England.

662
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:28,239
Speaker 3: And you know this is this is the tough one

663
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 3: of Swallow and I'm the stuff I'm trying to find

664
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,959
Speaker 3: is all the data about rushing quarterbacks against this Houston

665
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 3: team isn't much, right, They've just been so duminant this year.

666
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 3: Obviously they lost those first three games. The other two

667
00:32:40,200 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 3: games they lost one was when we remember right against

668
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 3: Denver where CJ got knocked out. Denver came back to

669
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 3: the fourth court. The other one was on the road

670
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 3: October twentieth at Seattle, and you know, I don't know

671
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 3: if you'll remember that game, but you know twenty seven

672
00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 3: and nineteen, Sam Dorno played really well, and honestly, a

673
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 3: lot of it was his leg getting out the side

674
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 3: of the pocket. So I do think that's the type

675
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 3: of stuff that you know, Drake May. The coaching staff

676
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 3: like they're gonna look at that where it's like, okay,

677
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 3: we know how Domina Wanderson all these edge rushers are.

678
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 2: You can't beat him with speed.

679
00:33:14,040 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 3: Right, It's a lot different than going again to forty

680
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 3: one forty two yearld Aaron Rodgers, who just stands in

681
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 3: that pocket. We've seen Drake May consistently stand in the

682
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 3: pocket and then move up. He steps up into it.

683
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 3: And last week we saw where he knew the passkin

684
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 3: was not working for him, right, he was struggling in

685
00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 3: that first half. He went back to his legs, which

686
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 3: to me, that dictated that game. That saved them in

687
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 3: that game where he picked up some easy, cheap first

688
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 3: downs and it kind of got them in a little

689
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 3: bit of rhythm. Now, not that impressive, right, they scored

690
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 3: sixteen points, but to me, that was a big deal.

691
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 2: Right.

692
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 3: The kid threw a pick, had a bad fumble, never Wavered.

693
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 2: Played really well in that second half. I think he

694
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 2: threw before toward your fifty yards.

695
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 3: So I know, I can't believe I'm not going to

696
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 3: shuston defense, but I am seeing the way of these

697
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 3: other pros and why they like this Patriots team.

698
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 2: And it's bizarre world. We might we might have.

699
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 3: A warld where it's about when Nicks first, Drake may

700
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 3: going to a super Bowl.

701
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,319
Speaker 2: But we talk all the time. Chat. It's why in

702
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:11,799
Speaker 2: the quarterback position, the biggest nerds in the world can

703
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 2: say it's a team sport. End of the day, it's

704
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 2: a team sport. It's a quarterback sport.

705
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 3: Like you get your quarterback in the draft, you can

706
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:22,799
Speaker 3: change your entire organization within a year or two. And

707
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:25,280
Speaker 3: this is this is crazy to me. I can't believe

708
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 3: I'm back in the Patriots. But it's about the number.

709
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 3: And I'm glad we're going with the under.

710
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 4: Chat.

711
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 3: It's to me another under that will keep coming down.

712
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 3: I can see this easy being thirty nine and a

713
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 3: half by kickoff.

714
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm much more comfortable with the under than I

715
00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 1: am with the side.

716
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 2: And this I'll get you there Saturday morning. We'll see,

717
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:41,479
Speaker 2: we'll see.

718
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:43,919
Speaker 1: We got time, Yeah, got time. We don't know where

719
00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:44,440
Speaker 1: it's gonna lak.

720
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 2: I get you're a little gunshine on the sides right now.

721
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 2: I get it, buddy, But oh my god.

722
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:48,880
Speaker 1: My gun shot.

723
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 2: By the pros.

724
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,279
Speaker 3: And again I'm saying I'm allf on this one because

725
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 3: I have a Model two and a half. But I'm

726
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:58,840
Speaker 3: gonna go back and dive more into what it's like

727
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:00,879
Speaker 3: without Nico Collins. I'm sure it's gonna move buy another

728
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 3: half a point, so three three fields right for this lie.

729
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 4: Jim. After that same.

730
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 1: All right, last game, maybe the most important game in

731
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:26,040
Speaker 1: the history of football, the Chicago Bears hosting the Los

732
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 1: Angeles Rams six thirty pm Sunday night, January eighteenth. Bears

733
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 1: are four point underdogs right now at hard Rock the

734
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:37,399
Speaker 1: total is forty Nine's come down from you know, an

735
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 1: opener of fifty two way early in the week. Most

736
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 1: of the week was it at fifty to fifty and

737
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 1: a half when we spoke on Tuesday. At least. The

738
00:35:45,560 --> 00:35:49,600
Speaker 1: weather is just wreaking havoc with this game. I highly

739
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 1: recommend everybody go check out a story on ESPN dot

740
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:56,359
Speaker 1: com today by John conn and it's a really fun

741
00:35:56,400 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 1: story about how players handle the coal. Some of the

742
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 1: coolest things that stood out for me, Stafford, thanks to

743
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:09,479
Speaker 1: advice from Tom Brady, plays in these really cold weather

744
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 1: games in a scuba suit, and Sean McVay wears a

745
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,880
Speaker 1: scuba suit and they say it doesn't restrict their movement

746
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 1: at least Stafford says that. Brady says that, and it's

747
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 1: a great way to sort of maintain some kind of

748
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 1: protection against the cold. The flip side is how many

749
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 1: players talked about the pain that comes from having jammed

750
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 1: sprained fingers in the cold. It just feels like your

751
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 1: finger is cracking when you are holding a football trying

752
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:46,840
Speaker 1: to block someone. They say the pain is unlike anything

753
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 1: they felt. And Matthew Stafford is going into this game

754
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:56,359
Speaker 1: where it's supposed to feel like it's negative for with

755
00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 1: a badly sprained finger.

756
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I gave you that that it's it's we're seeing

757
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 2: history here.

758
00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 3: That's the second time in NFL history a team will

759
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:09,000
Speaker 3: be back to back games as a home underdog, which

760
00:37:09,040 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 3: is what the Bears will be, right.

761
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:11,280
Speaker 2: And at other time it happened.

762
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:12,520
Speaker 3: I gave you that to that it happened with the

763
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 3: Eagles twenty seventeen to twenty eighteen. You know they've obviously

764
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 3: won both those games as home dogs. And you know,

765
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 3: if I was a Bears fan, I'd be hyped up

766
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:22,759
Speaker 3: like Chaddis gave you. You're you're getting exactly what you want.

767
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:25,560
Speaker 3: You're getting an indoor team from California, outdoors in the

768
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 3: element with a quarterback that might have a banged up finger.

769
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 3: So it's I get why Chad's so excited. It's peak

770
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 3: right now for Bears fandom. What was the first time

771
00:37:36,040 --> 00:37:37,800
Speaker 3: you guys have won the home game in the playoffs

772
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:40,439
Speaker 3: in like thirty years or since the Super Bowl run

773
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 3: twenty years?

774
00:37:41,960 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 1: I mean it's been like five coaches since we won

775
00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 1: a playoff game.

776
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:51,760
Speaker 3: Right, and you know the like everyone else, the public

777
00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 3: has the same exact data we have about the weather.

778
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 3: So everyone's just coming in hammering this Bears team.

779
00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:00,160
Speaker 2: Like I said, the professionals are split from.

780
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 3: The money wise, I know more money has been on

781
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 3: the rams from pros, right, and I'm interested where these

782
00:38:06,640 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 3: groups do. Like, well, the group's come in heavier on

783
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 3: the rams and we'll just go back up to four

784
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 3: four and a half on this rams side, because right

785
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:16,040
Speaker 3: now it is all Bears money for the most part.

786
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 3: Like everywhere I've seen and you know bookmakers I've talked to,

787
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:20,879
Speaker 3: it's all Bears and money.

788
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:22,080
Speaker 2: The total is split, right.

789
00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:25,759
Speaker 3: I think pros have come in and with demo we've done,

790
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 3: which is take the first half under but overall it's

791
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 3: actually pretty split towards the over I will give the

792
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 3: one good stat I could find about Stafford, and again,

793
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 3: like Chad said, this is doesn't hold too much truth

794
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 3: to it because this is something he's never played in before. Right,

795
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:45,120
Speaker 3: this is just for under forty degrees, because I've seen

796
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:46,479
Speaker 3: so many stats about how bad he is in cold

797
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:50,279
Speaker 3: weather simply not true. In his career, he is seven

798
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:52,359
Speaker 3: to eleven in games under forty degrees. Because we all

799
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 3: know he played in the NFC North for you know,

800
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:59,200
Speaker 3: fifteen or whatever it was, twelve years, ten years.

801
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:01,839
Speaker 2: Stafford, he's four.

802
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 3: And one against the Bears when it's below forty degrees

803
00:39:04,520 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 3: obviously at Soldier Field, and when he's favorite, so he's

804
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 3: been favorite eight times. When it's below forty degrees, he

805
00:39:10,320 --> 00:39:13,960
Speaker 3: is five and three. But out of seven of those games,

806
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:16,680
Speaker 3: he's had a QB rating of a plus one hundred, So.

807
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 2: He doesn't struggle horribly.

808
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 3: I mean, I just gave you the data there, like

809
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,280
Speaker 3: he you know, I looked at it early in his career.

810
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 3: He really did, which makes sense, right, what he played

811
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 3: at Georgia was a dome quarterback in Detroit.

812
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:32,120
Speaker 2: He did struggle on Lambeau. He did struggle.

813
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 3: What was it we have two years when they played

814
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 3: at Minnesota play at the Minnesota College stadium, which is

815
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 3: crazy I think back to and then obviously Soldiers Field.

816
00:39:41,880 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 3: He's actually done pretty well there when it's been cold.

817
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 3: But it's a different beast. So yeah, I'm I'm betting

818
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:50,320
Speaker 3: the Rams. I can't believe it, Like I was. I

819
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 3: thought I'd be on the Bears at this point, but

820
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:56,400
Speaker 3: I can't get over the match. For your guys defense,

821
00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 3: they are just.

822
00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:58,399
Speaker 1: That's the flip side right.

823
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:01,239
Speaker 3: Offensively, You're gonna need that finger to be a real

824
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:05,239
Speaker 3: issue because you don't have anyone that can cover the

825
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 3: Matty Adams, let alone Poka Nkua. You don't have a

826
00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 3: single cover and your safeties, as great as they have been, they.

827
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:14,600
Speaker 2: Do not have this speed for Puka Nokua.

828
00:40:15,000 --> 00:40:18,759
Speaker 3: So I see a lot of shelf against Puka and

829
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:21,399
Speaker 3: this will end up being a heavy, heavy run game

830
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 3: for me with Williams and that run with the Rams team.

831
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:28,120
Speaker 1: So that's what I was going to say, Like, I

832
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 1: don't know that Matthew Stafford's finger is going to be

833
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 1: that much of an impact when you're a really good

834
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:37,960
Speaker 1: running team playing against a rush defense that is twenty

835
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:41,799
Speaker 1: eighth and DVOA against the run twenty sixth in success rate.

836
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 1: They lost their best linebacker in TJ. Edwards. The difference

837
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:48,440
Speaker 1: between when TJ. Edwards plays and when he doesn't play

838
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:52,239
Speaker 1: in terms of yards per carry is almost two yards

839
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 1: per carry. They're giving up six yards per carry when TJ.

840
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 1: Edwards doesn't play.

841
00:40:57,760 --> 00:40:59,439
Speaker 2: So is your tackle out too?

842
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 1: You know what, I didn't check that up date. I

843
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 1: forgot to check that.

844
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 2: I know he hasn't practice.

845
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 3: I just anytime I see a guy get carded out,

846
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:07,760
Speaker 3: it's like, there's no way.

847
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 2: But we've seen miracles before, right, you really never know.

848
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 1: But look, we've seen seven miracles for the Bears, who

849
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:17,880
Speaker 1: have won seven games with less than two minutes, so

850
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:20,600
Speaker 1: that they were behind with less than two minutes left.

851
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:24,719
Speaker 1: So like, it's a tricky one. It's really a tricky one.

852
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:27,720
Speaker 1: It's kind of why I'm still liking the first half

853
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 1: under the best because I do expect, like we've seen

854
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:34,799
Speaker 1: the Bears get off the slow starts and really ramp

855
00:41:34,800 --> 00:41:36,920
Speaker 1: it up in the final quarter of the game, and

856
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:39,040
Speaker 1: we know the Rams are going to want to ease

857
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,399
Speaker 1: into this and why not run the ball a lot

858
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 1: when the Bears defense is just atrocious at stopping the run.

859
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 1: We've seen Blake corm and Kyrin Williams have fumble problems

860
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:50,399
Speaker 1: and that is something that Bears are really good at.

861
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 1: So who knows that could have an impact. But I'm

862
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:55,800
Speaker 1: still leaning too the under in this game. I understand

863
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 1: why people are pushing it back up. I liked that

864
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 1: it got to forty nine. The fact that you're the

865
00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:01,359
Speaker 1: Rams worries me a little bit.

866
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 3: It shouldn't though, Like I know plenty of pros. I

867
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 3: mean again, the pros that are on the Bears. Their

868
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:09,359
Speaker 3: biggest reason is what they keep banging the table about

869
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 3: is if Bryce Young and the playoffs canna light up

870
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 3: this defense, what is Caleb and Ben Johnson?

871
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 1: Well, look their secondary like though they were great at

872
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 1: the start of the year, but it might have just

873
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:22,319
Speaker 1: been because they were playing bad quarterbacks. Yes, and they've

874
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,319
Speaker 1: been terrible in the latter half of the year.

875
00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 3: And that to me is like Pauls where I I

876
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:28,719
Speaker 3: wanted to be all over this under. Like we just

877
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:31,359
Speaker 3: talked about the weather. Both teams. To me, they're going

878
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 3: to be a run, script heavy type of teams just

879
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 3: because we've seen it. When it's cold like this, it's

880
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:37,799
Speaker 3: hard to grip the ball and catch it. That's how

881
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:40,279
Speaker 3: stupid picks and turnovers happen, right, Yeah, when you're throwing

882
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 3: these tight windows, it's popping out of guy's hands. And

883
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 3: we already know Ben Johnson loves on the ball. McVeigh

884
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:47,320
Speaker 3: is the same thing me and child lose our minds.

885
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 3: McVeigh chooses to run the ball so much, especially when

886
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 3: his team has a lead. So really really fun game

887
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:55,239
Speaker 3: and a really tricky total and obviously side, but yeah,

888
00:42:55,280 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 3: I think I'm almost positibing and end up taking the

889
00:42:58,280 --> 00:42:59,880
Speaker 3: Rams here in my pick contest, I'm gonna take the

890
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:02,759
Speaker 3: under as well, and for betting right now, I'm with Chad.

891
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 3: I've taken the Rams first half. I've taken the Rams

892
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:09,279
Speaker 3: first half under. I think it was twenty four and

893
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 3: a half if you can still get it.

894
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:12,320
Speaker 1: Well, it was twenty five and a half when we

895
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:13,480
Speaker 1: talked about it on Tuesday.

896
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's juice now minus one twenty I think now

897
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 3: to the under twenty four and a half. So it's

898
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 3: the Obviously the pros have coming, the public coming a well,

899
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 3: and bet this under so yeah, it's you know, we

900
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,959
Speaker 3: talk all the time. It's really fun where these games

901
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:28,400
Speaker 3: are so tight like this, where it's.

902
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 1: Like it's great.

903
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's so painful picking either side of here.

904
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:33,800
Speaker 3: You can't And he probably talked to no one's really confident,

905
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 3: especially in this game, picking aside because of the all

906
00:43:36,520 --> 00:43:38,799
Speaker 3: the unknown factors, the biggest one being with Chad talked

907
00:43:38,800 --> 00:43:40,200
Speaker 3: about that finger with Stafford.

908
00:43:40,640 --> 00:43:43,719
Speaker 2: Is it broken? Is it dislocated? Is it nothing? Right?

909
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 2: We'll have better info, I promise you come Saturday morning.

910
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 1: Simon. What's your biggest bet right now? I think you

911
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,800
Speaker 1: hinted at it, But give us the truth, pull.

912
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:53,800
Speaker 2: Upose pants and be a man.

913
00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:55,360
Speaker 1: The truth.

914
00:43:55,480 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 3: That's always the truth, brother. Honestly, it was probably the

915
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:02,319
Speaker 3: San Francisco plus seven and a half. It's looking more

916
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:05,160
Speaker 3: and where. I can't believe this Newland Patriots. I can't

917
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 3: believe it might end up being my bigger bets.

918
00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 4: Jesus.

919
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:11,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I just that feels like you're getting bullied a

920
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:12,200
Speaker 1: little bit.

921
00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 2: But I see what they're saying. I give you those stats.

922
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:19,360
Speaker 3: CJ is just a different quarterback on the road outdoors,

923
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 3: and we have all the numbers to back that up.

924
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 3: He's just continue to struggle and now you're taking away

925
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:28,799
Speaker 3: his number one receiver. It's like that just feels like

926
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 3: too much to overcome for him. But yeah, it's I

927
00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:35,239
Speaker 3: know I can't believe it, but yeah, I think come

928
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 3: Sunday that'll be on my bigger bets. And we'll see

929
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:40,120
Speaker 3: this right now, this this under, I keep betting it,

930
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 3: so even twenty four and a half, that's not scaring

931
00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 3: me off. Once it dips down to twenty two and

932
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:45,560
Speaker 3: a half or gets to blow twenty three and a

933
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 3: half then offers, But right now it's still high enough

934
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:51,239
Speaker 3: that I'm happy to keep dicking that first half under.

935
00:44:51,360 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 3: So I would say, for right now those three are

936
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:54,520
Speaker 3: my biggest bets.

937
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 1: Nine Ers plus seven and a half, Patriots minus three

938
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:01,360
Speaker 1: under twenty four and a half for half, Rams and

939
00:45:01,440 --> 00:45:04,239
Speaker 1: Bears all right, sharp versus square. I think we both

940
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:06,800
Speaker 1: got killed last week. So do you want to go first?

941
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:11,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll lean in knowe, I'll go Patriots minus three?

942
00:45:12,200 --> 00:45:15,359
Speaker 1: All right? Then you know what I'll do, Bears first

943
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:15,879
Speaker 1: half under?

944
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:20,080
Speaker 2: Okay, whenever are you gonna take?

945
00:45:20,200 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 1: Oh, just give me the twenty four at least.

946
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 2: It's up to mametri. You can give you the twenty

947
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 2: four minus something.

948
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 1: Well, Matt Mitchell just gonna come on the air and

949
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:30,600
Speaker 1: calls jag Off, So just give me the twenty four. Hey,

950
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 1: jack Offs, you can have the twenty four. Enjoy. Oh,

951
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:37,359
Speaker 1: thank you, Matt Mitch. Let's go Mack, thank you, thank you,

952
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 1: thank you, thank.

953
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:40,040
Speaker 2: You for the Bills. Now I'm back on the Bills.

954
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:42,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, we all love the Bills. Bill's Mafia go team.

955
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 1: Josh Allen. Yeay, all right, what's your favorite parlay here?

956
00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:47,480
Speaker 1: I feel like this is the last week we can

957
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:54,120
Speaker 1: probably do some kind of parlor. Yeah, it's a tough one.

958
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:56,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, is Matt Mitchell gonna ask you? We were? Because

959
00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:59,879
Speaker 2: I would love to throw that Bears Rams first half

960
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 2: to a parlay?

961
00:46:00,520 --> 00:46:02,319
Speaker 1: But why don't we do it? I think we can

962
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:03,120
Speaker 1: do whatever we want.

963
00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 3: Well, if we're gonna go dogs, I mean, how do

964
00:46:09,120 --> 00:46:14,040
Speaker 3: we not go, uh Saturday Dog Day? We go Bills

965
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 3: and forty nine ers if we If we want to

966
00:46:15,640 --> 00:46:18,719
Speaker 3: go Bills and Bears too for the podcast, I don't

967
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:19,400
Speaker 3: hate that either.

968
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:26,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, Uh, let's do nine those are Bears?

969
00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:29,200
Speaker 2: You like the Bills? Forty nine ers better for underdog parlay?

970
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:32,600
Speaker 1: Niners and Bills, nine ers and Bills.

971
00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:39,279
Speaker 3: Okay, okay, and uh for the favorites. I mean, you know,

972
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:41,880
Speaker 3: I love Patriots. Are we doing a Sunday chalk? Are

973
00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:44,480
Speaker 3: we going Patriots again? And going Rams?

974
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:46,279
Speaker 2: Just in case you do have the Bears lose, at

975
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:47,440
Speaker 2: least you have a parlay on them.

976
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:49,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, Pats and Rams. Let's do it.

977
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:51,080
Speaker 2: Let's do it all right.

978
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:54,279
Speaker 1: Everybody knows. Everybody knows if you listen to the show

979
00:46:54,640 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 1: that I am an iu alum go I you fight, Fight, Fight.

980
00:46:58,719 --> 00:47:00,880
Speaker 1: I will be in the building Monday night when the

981
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:04,200
Speaker 1: Hoosiers take on the Mami Hurricanes in the College Football

982
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:10,760
Speaker 1: National Championship Game at hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens.

983
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 1: The fabulous hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, you also

984
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:17,920
Speaker 1: know the best place to say. One of the stadium.

985
00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:21,720
Speaker 1: One of the hotels closest to the stadium, the awesome,

986
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 1: the cool, the incomparable Seminal hard Rock Hotel and Casino

987
00:47:27,040 --> 00:47:31,480
Speaker 1: in Hollywood, Florida. The Guitar Hotel lives up to the hype.

988
00:47:31,520 --> 00:47:34,520
Speaker 1: I know it. I've stayed there, I've played there. I've

989
00:47:34,520 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 1: wanted to move in there and never leave. I've eaten

990
00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:42,560
Speaker 1: to my gluttonous content at that hotel. Good times, good food,

991
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 1: and of course full casino. Full sports book makes you

992
00:47:47,320 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 1: want to skip all the nearby Florida beaches. Thanks to

993
00:47:51,640 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 1: our friends at hard Rock, I am going to the

994
00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:56,400
Speaker 1: game this weekend. I'll be roaming around the casino in

995
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:59,279
Speaker 1: the sports book. If you're there, say hello when I'm

996
00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:03,160
Speaker 1: not there to be using the top rated hard Rock

997
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:07,120
Speaker 1: bet app to hammer the Hoosiers. And you're gonna hear

998
00:48:07,160 --> 00:48:11,120
Speaker 1: why in a second. It is the only legal sportsbook

999
00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 1: app available in the state of Flora. They got tons

1000
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:21,360
Speaker 1: of betting markets all ready live because we know so

1001
00:48:21,440 --> 00:48:23,520
Speaker 1: many of you will be watching and betting on this game.

1002
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:28,560
Speaker 1: Here we go, special guest talking college football joining us

1003
00:48:28,800 --> 00:48:32,960
Speaker 1: right now. All right, we're joined by friend of the show,

1004
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 1: college football betting expert Joshua Doc Nunn, one of the

1005
00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:41,920
Speaker 1: co hosts over at the Big Bets on Campus podcast.

1006
00:48:42,080 --> 00:48:45,879
Speaker 1: Welcome to the show, Doc, Thanks for coming on. Here's

1007
00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:49,600
Speaker 1: what I need to know. I'm in Indiana, alum. We've

1008
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:53,640
Speaker 1: been talking about this for weeks. I'm wearing Indiana T

1009
00:48:53,760 --> 00:48:58,239
Speaker 1: shirts every single day this week. This entire season has

1010
00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:03,240
Speaker 1: been a surreal experience. Let's just say that the listeners

1011
00:49:03,280 --> 00:49:06,880
Speaker 1: on this show haven't watched college football or haven't listened

1012
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 1: to me crow about the Indiana Hoosiers at any point

1013
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:15,080
Speaker 1: this year. Could you put what's happening here under Kurt

1014
00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:18,880
Speaker 1: Signetti into perspective for our audience.

1015
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 5: In my opinion, he is pulling all of the right

1016
00:49:21,680 --> 00:49:25,000
Speaker 5: levers here at Indiana. He's a high culture guy. He's

1017
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:28,520
Speaker 5: a high team first attitude coach. There's no egos in

1018
00:49:28,560 --> 00:49:31,800
Speaker 5: the locker room. He had a quote in the media

1019
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:34,719
Speaker 5: about getting the right people on the bus, having the blueprint,

1020
00:49:34,800 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 5: having the vision, and then going out and making it happen.

1021
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:40,120
Speaker 5: And I think Kurt Signetti has made good on all

1022
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:43,360
Speaker 5: of that. He has removed any possible excuses in the

1023
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:47,960
Speaker 5: current landscape of college football today for somebody rebuttling being

1024
00:49:48,000 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 5: able to do a quick turnaround. If you just look

1025
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:55,520
Speaker 5: at where Indiana was at seven hundred and thirty days ago.

1026
00:49:55,600 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 5: I went and looked at it. They were three to

1027
00:49:57,239 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 5: nine and losing to Purdue. They were losing by four touchdowns.

1028
00:50:00,520 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 5: At Maryland, it took quadruple overtime to beat Akron. For

1029
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:08,440
Speaker 5: anyone listening in here, go back and rewind that and

1030
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:10,719
Speaker 5: listen to that and let that sink in. It took

1031
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:15,680
Speaker 5: four overtimes to defeat Akron, and now they're undefeated, fifteen

1032
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:18,000
Speaker 5: to zero and playing for the national championship. I will

1033
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:20,360
Speaker 5: happily and proudly go on record and say that this

1034
00:50:20,480 --> 00:50:24,319
Speaker 5: is the greatest coaching job in the history of college athletics,

1035
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:27,960
Speaker 5: what he's done at the University of Indiana, a program

1036
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:31,000
Speaker 5: that is storied but didn't have a lot of success

1037
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:34,000
Speaker 5: for many, many years. I mean, you can go back

1038
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:37,440
Speaker 5: to the Mallory days before Indiana had really this level

1039
00:50:37,440 --> 00:50:40,120
Speaker 5: of success, and for them to be struggling when he

1040
00:50:40,200 --> 00:50:43,520
Speaker 5: took over so badly to now blowing the doors off

1041
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:48,160
Speaker 5: of the traditional blue blood powerhouse programs, it is stunning.

1042
00:50:48,880 --> 00:50:50,719
Speaker 5: It is an immaculate coaching job.

1043
00:50:51,120 --> 00:50:56,839
Speaker 1: Well, doc, because I'm old. I was in Bloomington at

1044
00:50:56,880 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 1: IU for the Mallory days when we'd start off every

1045
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:05,080
Speaker 1: season four and zero, and then Ohio State or Michigan

1046
00:51:05,120 --> 00:51:08,239
Speaker 1: would come to town and we'd all be psyched, and

1047
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:12,279
Speaker 1: by halftime it'd be forty five nothing, and I'd be

1048
00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:14,600
Speaker 1: me and my buddy Matt would be the only ones

1049
00:51:15,080 --> 00:51:18,359
Speaker 1: left in the stands, hanging on for dear life till

1050
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:20,600
Speaker 1: the end of that game. So I remember the Mallory

1051
00:51:20,640 --> 00:51:22,640
Speaker 1: Day as well, and I always thought, like those years,

1052
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:24,919
Speaker 1: we were the best six to five and one team

1053
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:27,560
Speaker 1: in the country every single year. What kurtz Signetti has

1054
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:30,280
Speaker 1: done is so historic. I feel like he should already

1055
00:51:30,360 --> 00:51:35,400
Speaker 1: be in the College Football Hall of Fame. This game, however,

1056
00:51:35,920 --> 00:51:40,520
Speaker 1: unusual situation, Hurricanes playing for a title in their home stadium.

1057
00:51:41,000 --> 00:51:44,799
Speaker 1: We actually asked the SVP of the hard Rock Bet

1058
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:49,279
Speaker 1: sports book, Neil Walsh, because they're down in Florida, the

1059
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:52,600
Speaker 1: only legal sports book in the state of Florida's Hard

1060
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:55,959
Speaker 1: Rock Bet. We asked them to clarify, like how they're

1061
00:51:56,000 --> 00:52:00,279
Speaker 1: baking that advantage home field advantage into the spread. I'm

1062
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:02,080
Speaker 1: curious to get your take on this. After I read

1063
00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:05,279
Speaker 1: his response, which is obviously the Miami program knows the

1064
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:08,600
Speaker 1: locker rooms, the field, the routine. They're not looking at this,

1065
00:52:08,719 --> 00:52:11,080
Speaker 1: says Neil. As a true home game, the crowd will

1066
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:14,560
Speaker 1: be mixed, damn straight. I'll be there, Sharon for Indiana.

1067
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:17,040
Speaker 1: The sideline isn't there. That was me, by the way,

1068
00:52:17,080 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 1: not Neil. The sideline isn't there as the environment is

1069
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:22,320
Speaker 1: closer to a neutral site than a normal home date.

1070
00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:26,360
Speaker 1: Because of that, Neil says, we're signing a smaller home

1071
00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:29,880
Speaker 1: field adjustment than usual when compared to some of the

1072
00:52:30,000 --> 00:52:34,040
Speaker 1: larger on campus venues across college football, Miami and hard

1073
00:52:34,120 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 1: Rock would not be considered one of the stronger home

1074
00:52:37,040 --> 00:52:40,760
Speaker 1: field advantages. And for a championship game, they estimate, we estimate,

1075
00:52:40,960 --> 00:52:44,359
Speaker 1: says Neil, the edged about two points compared to three

1076
00:52:44,440 --> 00:52:48,200
Speaker 1: or four in a standard home game. Does that level

1077
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:50,040
Speaker 1: up with your expectations?

1078
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:51,759
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I think it's a sharp take, and

1079
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:54,000
Speaker 5: I think it's an appropriate take. You look at Miami

1080
00:52:54,640 --> 00:52:58,279
Speaker 5: historically and they don't have a tremendous home field atmosphere.

1081
00:52:58,320 --> 00:53:01,520
Speaker 5: Their campus isn't or excuse the stadium isn't on campus.

1082
00:53:01,920 --> 00:53:06,200
Speaker 5: Miami culturally in sports has a problem with people showing

1083
00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:09,799
Speaker 5: up on time and kind of getting the environment to

1084
00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 5: where it needs to be anyway in a multitude of

1085
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:15,520
Speaker 5: different sports. And this is not going to be akin

1086
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:19,360
Speaker 5: to going into Ohio State Stadium or the Big House

1087
00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:22,319
Speaker 5: or Alabama or somewhere like that, where it's going to

1088
00:53:22,320 --> 00:53:25,799
Speaker 5: feel like a really hostile environment. And now you put

1089
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:29,799
Speaker 5: the stage at the national championship setting and you're going

1090
00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 5: to have a huge constituent of Indiana fans. I feel

1091
00:53:34,320 --> 00:53:38,200
Speaker 5: very strongly that this will not feel like a Miami

1092
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:38,680
Speaker 5: home game.

1093
00:53:39,120 --> 00:53:41,280
Speaker 1: I'm going to say, having been in Atlanta last week,

1094
00:53:41,920 --> 00:53:45,160
Speaker 1: knowing Indiana's alumni base is literally the largest in the world,

1095
00:53:45,160 --> 00:53:49,560
Speaker 1: more than eight hundred thousand alumni, knowing this team, these

1096
00:53:49,600 --> 00:53:53,640
Speaker 1: fans are traveling, and knowing how thirsty they are and

1097
00:53:53,719 --> 00:53:56,800
Speaker 1: desperate they are, and how much everyone is enjoying this run,

1098
00:53:57,760 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 1: Hoosiers are going to show out in Miami.

1099
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:04,080
Speaker 3: Me I would say, just like all games, I think

1100
00:54:04,200 --> 00:54:05,719
Speaker 3: zero effect will be done by the fan.

1101
00:54:05,840 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 2: It's all about the coaching, right, Well, you just talked

1102
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:08,560
Speaker 2: about duckets.

1103
00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 3: It's a coaching difference here, in my opinion, that's what

1104
00:54:11,239 --> 00:54:14,319
Speaker 3: most pro better. We're talking about this Signetti seems like

1105
00:54:14,440 --> 00:54:17,640
Speaker 3: respected to betters, he's the best coach you could possibly

1106
00:54:17,640 --> 00:54:19,640
Speaker 3: have for this game. And you know, all the people

1107
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:22,040
Speaker 3: wait for Duck. What is your favorite bets for this game?

1108
00:54:22,080 --> 00:54:22,759
Speaker 3: Everyone wants to know.

1109
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:25,200
Speaker 5: I mean, I looked at this pretty extensively, and I

1110
00:54:25,280 --> 00:54:27,000
Speaker 5: ended up getting to the window and laying it with

1111
00:54:27,080 --> 00:54:29,719
Speaker 5: Indiana here. I looked at a couple of different metrics

1112
00:54:29,760 --> 00:54:32,920
Speaker 5: and a couple of different things that you know, these

1113
00:54:32,920 --> 00:54:36,880
Speaker 5: are two top fifteen teams, two very good college football teams,

1114
00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:40,600
Speaker 5: and so you're trying to find out these minute differences

1115
00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:43,960
Speaker 5: which could decide the game. For me, there's a discipline discrepancy.

1116
00:54:44,400 --> 00:54:48,160
Speaker 5: Miami is the fifth most heavily penalized team in the

1117
00:54:48,280 --> 00:54:52,080
Speaker 5: entire country. Indiana has the tenth fewest penalties accepted against

1118
00:54:52,080 --> 00:54:55,759
Speaker 5: them and the sixth fewest penalty yards assessed against them.

1119
00:54:56,200 --> 00:54:58,520
Speaker 5: I look at Indiana's red zone defense. They had only

1120
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:04,319
Speaker 5: surrendered six zone touchdowns all season before the Oregon game.

1121
00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:06,600
Speaker 5: The margin was so wide. There was a little bit

1122
00:55:06,680 --> 00:55:09,279
Speaker 5: of garbage time in that Oregon game which caused some

1123
00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:11,279
Speaker 5: red zone scoring for the Ducks, but just thirty four

1124
00:55:11,320 --> 00:55:14,120
Speaker 5: percent touchdowns surrendered on the season for Indiana. With their

1125
00:55:14,120 --> 00:55:17,040
Speaker 5: defense in the red zone, so with the field compressed,

1126
00:55:17,480 --> 00:55:21,040
Speaker 5: with throwing lanes and receiving windows so minuscule, I worry

1127
00:55:21,040 --> 00:55:24,479
Speaker 5: about Miami being able to produce in the red zone

1128
00:55:24,560 --> 00:55:27,120
Speaker 5: at a level that's going to be necessary to seriously

1129
00:55:27,160 --> 00:55:30,840
Speaker 5: threaten to win this game or stay within the number.

1130
00:55:31,280 --> 00:55:34,680
Speaker 5: And then, lastly, a forgotten element of football, the special

1131
00:55:34,719 --> 00:55:38,160
Speaker 5: team's massive edge for Indiana. There special teams composite rankings

1132
00:55:38,160 --> 00:55:41,800
Speaker 5: are fifth nationally compared to forty ninth for Miami. Indiana's

1133
00:55:41,840 --> 00:55:44,319
Speaker 5: better in the trenches. They're such a better tackling team,

1134
00:55:44,320 --> 00:55:47,719
Speaker 5: They're better disciplined. I think in situations where they have

1135
00:55:47,800 --> 00:55:51,319
Speaker 5: to have it, their execution will rise above Miami's. And

1136
00:55:51,360 --> 00:55:53,719
Speaker 5: Miami has had times this season where they've gone through

1137
00:55:53,760 --> 00:55:57,760
Speaker 5: stretches where they've been undisciplined, which either thwarts their offensive

1138
00:55:57,840 --> 00:56:00,880
Speaker 5: drives or it continues to drive against their defense for

1139
00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:03,160
Speaker 5: the opponent. And I think that in a game of

1140
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:06,520
Speaker 5: this magnitude between two great teams with good athletes all

1141
00:56:06,520 --> 00:56:08,440
Speaker 5: over the field, that's what it's going to come down to.

1142
00:56:08,560 --> 00:56:10,640
Speaker 5: So I'm not afraid of the big number here. I

1143
00:56:10,719 --> 00:56:12,239
Speaker 5: laid the eight and a half with Indiana.

1144
00:56:12,440 --> 00:56:15,080
Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting, Simon, you said the other day you

1145
00:56:15,160 --> 00:56:17,080
Speaker 1: were going to take the outline at thirteen and a half,

1146
00:56:17,080 --> 00:56:21,279
Speaker 1: So I like here and Duck completely independently going in

1147
00:56:21,280 --> 00:56:26,200
Speaker 1: the same direction. We asked hard Rock Bet for info

1148
00:56:26,320 --> 00:56:30,560
Speaker 1: from their trading team about where the action is coming

1149
00:56:30,600 --> 00:56:34,000
Speaker 1: in right now, and hard Rock Bet sent us a

1150
00:56:34,040 --> 00:56:36,880
Speaker 1: ton of information. They're the only legal sports book in Florida,

1151
00:56:36,960 --> 00:56:40,000
Speaker 1: so it's a very good lens into the market, and

1152
00:56:40,040 --> 00:56:43,560
Speaker 1: from an against the spread perspective, no surprise because it

1153
00:56:43,640 --> 00:56:46,440
Speaker 1: is the only legal sports book in Florida. Sixty two

1154
00:56:46,440 --> 00:56:48,200
Speaker 1: percent of the bets sixty eight percent of the money

1155
00:56:48,640 --> 00:56:52,640
Speaker 1: on Miami plus eight and a half, about a third

1156
00:56:52,680 --> 00:56:56,640
Speaker 1: of that game handle was on the Hurricanes money line

1157
00:56:56,719 --> 00:56:59,239
Speaker 1: one and every four bets on the game, so by

1158
00:56:59,280 --> 00:57:03,840
Speaker 1: far it's their popular bet. Again, not that surprising given

1159
00:57:03,880 --> 00:57:06,360
Speaker 1: that it's a legal sports book in the state of Florida.

1160
00:57:06,960 --> 00:57:09,600
Speaker 1: Although a lot of sharp betters in the state of Florida,

1161
00:57:09,640 --> 00:57:12,200
Speaker 1: as we've been saying all year, we've seen some sharp

1162
00:57:12,239 --> 00:57:16,960
Speaker 1: lines coming out of hard Rock. So if Miami pulled

1163
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:20,920
Speaker 1: off the upset, not great for Hot Rock. They're rooting

1164
00:57:20,960 --> 00:57:25,800
Speaker 1: for a big and Indiana win. Best case scenario Indiana

1165
00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:30,200
Speaker 1: by nine and the over. For those asking, hard Rock

1166
00:57:30,240 --> 00:57:32,960
Speaker 1: has taken one bet that's by far the biggest bet,

1167
00:57:33,440 --> 00:57:36,520
Speaker 1: you know, a six figure bet from a respected player

1168
00:57:36,640 --> 00:57:39,480
Speaker 1: on Indiana, but it was at minus six and a

1169
00:57:39,520 --> 00:57:43,480
Speaker 1: half minus one thirty. A lot of interest from sharp

1170
00:57:43,520 --> 00:57:46,640
Speaker 1: betters on the Hoosiers in the early going on this game.

1171
00:57:46,720 --> 00:57:51,600
Speaker 1: Final question for you, duck exotic wagers you'd recommend.

1172
00:57:52,120 --> 00:57:53,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, So there's a couple here, and I'll go through

1173
00:57:53,680 --> 00:57:56,920
Speaker 5: them real quickly. Charlie Becker the receiver for Indiana and

1174
00:57:57,600 --> 00:58:00,400
Speaker 5: for eighty over two and a half reception he has

1175
00:58:00,480 --> 00:58:03,800
Speaker 5: been such a reliable third option in this offense, with

1176
00:58:03,920 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 5: most of the attention being given to Omar Cooper and

1177
00:58:07,080 --> 00:58:09,680
Speaker 5: Elijah Surratt. If you look at Becker, he had two

1178
00:58:09,720 --> 00:58:12,280
Speaker 5: catches in each of the two playoff games. But Indiana

1179
00:58:12,360 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 5: was wiping the floor with Alabama and Oregon, and over

1180
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:18,320
Speaker 5: the last two games they've run the ball ninety times

1181
00:58:18,360 --> 00:58:21,200
Speaker 5: as opposed to just thirty six passing attempts. But if

1182
00:58:21,240 --> 00:58:24,600
Speaker 5: you look at when Indiana the rare circumstances when they

1183
00:58:24,640 --> 00:58:27,959
Speaker 5: were in kind of gotta have it mode Penn State game,

1184
00:58:28,280 --> 00:58:31,080
Speaker 5: Becker had seven receptions for one hundred and eighteen yards

1185
00:58:31,080 --> 00:58:33,640
Speaker 5: the Ohio State game, in the Big Ten Championship six

1186
00:58:33,720 --> 00:58:36,640
Speaker 5: catches for one hundred and twenty six yards, only two

1187
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:38,760
Speaker 5: in each of the playoff games. But I do think

1188
00:58:38,800 --> 00:58:41,400
Speaker 5: that this game will certainly be closer than thirty five

1189
00:58:41,440 --> 00:58:44,080
Speaker 5: points with a lot of garbage time in the second half,

1190
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:46,480
Speaker 5: So I don't expect that here, and I think Indiana

1191
00:58:46,520 --> 00:58:49,920
Speaker 5: will have some situations where they will have to have it,

1192
00:58:50,240 --> 00:58:53,240
Speaker 5: and Becker is such an outlet and such a trusted

1193
00:58:53,280 --> 00:58:56,080
Speaker 5: outlet for Mendoza, So with his reception total at two

1194
00:58:56,080 --> 00:58:58,560
Speaker 5: and a half, I like over. I also think if

1195
00:58:58,600 --> 00:59:00,800
Speaker 5: you're kind of feeling a little bit frisky and you

1196
00:59:00,840 --> 00:59:02,840
Speaker 5: want to do something fun with the first quarter, I

1197
00:59:02,880 --> 00:59:06,160
Speaker 5: do like the first quarter under, and I do think

1198
00:59:06,200 --> 00:59:08,760
Speaker 5: that there's going to be a significant feeling out process

1199
00:59:08,800 --> 00:59:11,120
Speaker 5: from both of these opponents that are unfamiliar with each other.

1200
00:59:11,160 --> 00:59:14,680
Speaker 5: So I would not be surprised to see Indiana first

1201
00:59:14,800 --> 00:59:18,640
Speaker 5: drive punt, Miami first drive punt, and that rolls into

1202
00:59:18,680 --> 00:59:20,640
Speaker 5: a first quarter under, so you can kind of throw

1203
00:59:20,680 --> 00:59:22,840
Speaker 5: all three of those together in a parlay get about

1204
00:59:22,840 --> 00:59:25,920
Speaker 5: four and a half to one. So punt, punt, first

1205
00:59:26,240 --> 00:59:28,400
Speaker 5: quarter under, and then it's game on from there. So

1206
00:59:28,440 --> 00:59:29,520
Speaker 5: I kind of like that as well.

1207
00:59:30,520 --> 00:59:33,920
Speaker 1: Nice. I like that a lot, all right, Joshua on

1208
00:59:34,000 --> 00:59:36,919
Speaker 1: aka Doc on Twitter at step on a Doc catch

1209
00:59:36,920 --> 00:59:40,120
Speaker 1: them on the Big Bets on Campus podcast. Thanks for

1210
00:59:40,160 --> 00:59:44,520
Speaker 1: all the intel, the info, The hoo's your nation supports

1211
00:59:44,560 --> 00:59:45,240
Speaker 1: your choices.

1212
00:59:45,640 --> 00:59:46,000
Speaker 2: Let's go.

1213
00:59:46,080 --> 00:59:47,720
Speaker 5: It's going to be a fun game. We'll be singing

1214
00:59:47,720 --> 00:59:48,880
Speaker 5: the Indiana song together.

1215
00:59:48,920 --> 00:59:50,160
Speaker 2: Guys, have a great days.

1216
00:59:50,200 --> 00:59:54,640
Speaker 1: Oohoo hoos yours. Nothing gets people side like winning.

1217
00:59:55,240 --> 00:59:56,080
Speaker 2: It's pretty simple.

1218
00:59:56,120 --> 00:59:58,840
Speaker 1: I win, Google me.

1219
01:00:00,400 --> 01:00:05,960
Speaker 4: Do miss.

1220
01:00:08,120 --> 01:00:10,800
Speaker 1: This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast Network.

1221
01:00:10,800 --> 01:00:13,920
Speaker 1: We will be back on Saturday morning to lock in

1222
01:00:14,000 --> 01:00:17,720
Speaker 1: our final five. Watch or listen on YouTube a Sharper

1223
01:00:17,760 --> 01:00:20,800
Speaker 1: Square like the video, Subscribe to the channel, download us

1224
01:00:20,840 --> 01:00:24,280
Speaker 1: with Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods, rate review, subscribe.

1225
01:00:24,280 --> 01:00:26,520
Speaker 1: We is five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is

1226
01:00:26,520 --> 01:00:28,920
Speaker 1: a gift until next time. Love you.

1227
01:00:30,280 --> 01:00:33,680
Speaker 2: The road to the Super Bowl filled with unexpected twists

1228
01:00:33,720 --> 01:00:33,800
Speaker 2: and

1229
01:00:33,880 --> 01:00:39,479
Speaker 3: Turns, detours and shattering collisions, but the final prize makes

1230
01:00:39,480 --> 01:00:40,440
Speaker 3: the trip worth once