1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:06,640 Speaker 1: Hi, everybody, it's Chuck here. I guess it's time to 2 00:00:06,680 --> 00:00:11,760 Speaker 1: introduce another Saturday Select. I'm pretty miserable, so maybe I 3 00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: should just do this one on the Misery Index. It's 4 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:24,640 Speaker 1: called What's the Misery Index? And it's from June. I 5 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:26,759 Speaker 1: hope you'd like it. It was a lot of fun 6 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:33,800 Speaker 1: recording it. Welcome to Stuff you should know, a production 7 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 1: of I Heart Radio. Hey, and welcome to the podcast. 8 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: I'm Josh Clark and there's Charles W Chuck Bryant. The 9 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 1: W stands for Wayne Dr Wayne Coyne. That gets you 10 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: every time. I know, it's funny to be forty five 11 00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 1: years old and named after Wayne Coyne because he's like, right, no, 12 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,880 Speaker 1: he's his fifties too. But it would be weird. I 13 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:06,400 Speaker 1: would have been named after a very uh like kindergarten 14 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:10,080 Speaker 1: age Wayne con Right. You know, maybe your parents were 15 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 1: friends with his parents and they really thought a lot 16 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:14,680 Speaker 1: about him. Play he's a real achiever, right that, Wayne? 17 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:19,520 Speaker 1: Coins are going places? Okay, Uh, that was a weird sidetrack. 18 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:22,160 Speaker 1: It was already out of the gate. Man, how are 19 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: you feeling. I'm good. I got a lot on your plate, 20 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 1: got a lot going on? Oh, you know what today is? 21 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:34,959 Speaker 1: What dude? Today is the day that I leave this 22 00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 1: office and I go to a shop in Edmond Park 23 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:41,759 Speaker 1: and pick up four brand new last chance garage hats. 24 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:46,119 Speaker 1: Oh wow, it's a big day, very big day. So 25 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 1: I have a couple of people would like to thank. 26 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: It's a bigger deal than it should be for a 27 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 1: grown man in a hat. But we all understand. First 28 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 1: of all, Katie, my custom patchmaker, this is really where 29 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 1: it all came together. It's a patch, isn't right? The 30 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: hat's not right. Katie killed it. It looks identical and 31 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:08,920 Speaker 1: you can find her work at tulip cake dot com. 32 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: T U l I P Cake. And I said, you know, 33 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 1: people might ask you to make you to make them 34 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:19,040 Speaker 1: last chance garage patches. Did you have her destroy the mold? 35 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 1: And I said, I don't you know. It's on you. 36 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 1: It's up to you legally. Uh. I'm just saying you 37 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: might get requests. You should have been like Ivan the 38 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 1: Terrible who blinded his architects after they've built his pal Now, 39 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:33,919 Speaker 1: I don't care people, I'd love to see these things 40 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 1: around and la mood big hats l A m o 41 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 1: O d uh for big heads. Because part of the 42 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 1: problem was finding Uh yeah, man, like, uh, the problem 43 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: I have with hats these days. I don't look like 44 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:51,520 Speaker 1: I have a huge chat, but they just fit so 45 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 1: snugly and they don't go far down enough on my head. 46 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 1: So I finally looked up oversized hats and found La 47 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 1: mood Hats and dude, their exactly like the old hat 48 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 1: except it doesn't stink. Oh yeah, like, these are great. 49 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 1: I got four brands, an improvement for sure. So are 50 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:10,959 Speaker 1: you gonna put one in like the seed Vault in Norway? Uh? 51 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: Probably one there? Uh, there will be one in the 52 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:19,720 Speaker 1: nuclear suitcase and um, I'll wear the other two at 53 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 1: the same time at the same from back. That's right. Anyway, 54 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:25,679 Speaker 1: I'm super excited. So that's pretty cool. Thank you to 55 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 1: Katie and lemod Hats for allowing me to spend too 56 00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:32,399 Speaker 1: much money getting four hats remade. And speaking of while 57 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 1: we're thanking people, we we owe a long overdue thank 58 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 1: you to a guy who um made us a really 59 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 1: cool sign. Um. Oh you mean the sign this guy 60 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 1: made for us like seven years ago. Yeah, his name 61 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 1: is Matt Street. He's at fat Bison dot com. And 62 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 1: it made a really cool wood carved sign. It was 63 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: in our TV show. It was like like the production 64 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,120 Speaker 1: company got clearance rights for it and all this stuff, 65 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 1: and we love the sign, but we just forgot to 66 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 1: ever thank Matt. So, Matt, thank you so much for 67 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 1: the sign. We love it. We have it hanging here 68 00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 1: in the studio. It is a work of art and 69 00:04:04,160 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 1: we appreciate it. We're sorry for the oversight. Okay, is 70 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:10,640 Speaker 1: that all? But thank you? So let's talk about the 71 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 1: Misery Index. Huh. Yeah, what a great transition have you? Um? 72 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:17,479 Speaker 1: Had you heard of it before you came across this article? Yeah, 73 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:19,479 Speaker 1: I didn't know a lot about it though, and um, 74 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: apparently it's going a little bit out of fashion lately 75 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,479 Speaker 1: from what I understand. Yeah, I think so, because well, 76 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 1: well let's get into it. Okay. It turns out economics 77 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:31,080 Speaker 1: as a whole is in danger of going out of fashion. 78 00:04:31,520 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 1: I read this, I've read this really interesting article on 79 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 1: a on which is maybe the greatest website on the 80 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 1: planet a E O N dot It might be dot 81 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 1: CEO because you said that British about a lot of websites. 82 00:04:42,200 --> 00:04:44,680 Speaker 1: I think I said about a on a lot and 83 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:46,720 Speaker 1: and it just seems like I'm talking about different ones. 84 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:51,360 Speaker 1: But there's this article by Allen J. Levinovitz and it's 85 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:54,520 Speaker 1: called The New Astrology, and he basically makes a parallel 86 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: between economics and economists and economic theory when you take 87 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 1: economics and try to apply it to future forecasting and 88 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 1: the um the BCE Chinese astrologers that basically directed the 89 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:14,719 Speaker 1: way that the economy or the government was going to 90 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,719 Speaker 1: move based on the movements of the stars. So what 91 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 1: are they saying, It's you might as well just do that. 92 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 1: He draw some pretty pretty interesting parallels between the two 93 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 1: that that economics in and of itself is not necessarily flawed, 94 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,039 Speaker 1: but when it's used to forecast the future, then it 95 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:32,640 Speaker 1: becomes inherently flawed. Yeah, this this article really kind of 96 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 1: kind yeah a little bit, Yeah, to an extent. I mean, 97 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:41,159 Speaker 1: the Misery index is a legitimate economic tool, and it's 98 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 1: hit or miss in a lot of ways. Yeah. I 99 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:45,279 Speaker 1: think one thing that hit home to me with researching 100 00:05:45,320 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 1: this is it just seems impossible to say that there's 101 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:55,000 Speaker 1: one correct way of doing things right or that is absolute, 102 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 1: and you're like, you know, if you do things this way, 103 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 1: then there will be nothing but growth in job abs 104 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:04,880 Speaker 1: and the GDP and g MP, and uh, it just 105 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 1: it just doesn't seem to work that way, right. I 106 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 1: think the problem is is that if you listen to economists, 107 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 1: they like to act like they do have a handle 108 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 1: on that kind of thing. But if you really look 109 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:18,479 Speaker 1: into economics, it's very politicized. There's liberal economics and there's 110 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:22,480 Speaker 1: conservative economics, and the fact that each one saying it's 111 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:25,279 Speaker 1: right kind of makes you think that maybe no one is, 112 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: you know, But the misery index actually is is it 113 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:32,600 Speaker 1: started out from a guy who was pretty good at 114 00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 1: walking the line between conservative and liberal economics. Um, a guy, uh, 115 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 1: what was his name? Okin? Yeah, Arthur Oakin, and he 116 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 1: uh he worked on Kennedy's staff as Council of Economic Advisors, 117 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:49,880 Speaker 1: John F. Kennedy that is, and he was, Um, I 118 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 1: get the feeling, one of the main influences and talking Kennedy, 119 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 1: who initially did not necessarily agree, but talking Kennedy into 120 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 1: kind of trying to an act both conservative and liberal 121 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 1: economic policies simultaneously. Right. They were. The US was in 122 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 1: a recession when Kennedy took office in nineteen one, um, 123 00:07:10,520 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 1: and they talked him into not only increasing government spending 124 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 1: like welfare programs. They raised the UM the minimum wage 125 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,440 Speaker 1: and um some other stuff like that. But they also 126 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 1: cut taxes, which is, you do one or the other. 127 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 1: You cut taxes and hope everything goes for the best 128 00:07:28,960 --> 00:07:33,200 Speaker 1: because businesses will start investing in spending or you start 129 00:07:33,720 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 1: you start investing in welfare programs to help your ailing 130 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 1: UM lower in middle classes. Right, you don't do both, 131 00:07:40,960 --> 00:07:43,880 Speaker 1: And Kennedy did both and it was successful. Yeah. He 132 00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: well he at first he said, I don't know about this. 133 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,120 Speaker 1: I don't know about this author. Mike Kennedy sounds like 134 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 1: a robot. My Gooda did too. Actually this is fine, 135 00:07:54,720 --> 00:08:01,200 Speaker 1: but Arthur, mr okunn, I think, ok it's a weird name. Okay, 136 00:08:01,240 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 1: you in? Uh he talked him into it and said 137 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:10,320 Speaker 1: trust me, and things worked out in that case. Yeah. Well, 138 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 1: and a lot of guys, including Oaken's, names, were made 139 00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 1: by this advice that panned out like the US Center 140 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 1: to Boom. Yeah and um. Oakin ended up as being 141 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 1: the head of the Council of Economic Advisors for Kennedy's successor, 142 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 1: Lyndon Johnson. Right, yeah, and um. One thing that economic 143 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:34,439 Speaker 1: economists economists love to do is um. I mean, he 144 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 1: loved to forecast and all that stuff. But it's all 145 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 1: about data. Man. They love to pour over data like 146 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:45,479 Speaker 1: stuff that makes the average person their mind bleed from boredom. 147 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 1: They just find it fascinating. That's what they do on 148 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:51,240 Speaker 1: Friday nights. Friday nights, they pour over data, historical data, 149 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 1: trying to find you know, it's like the big puzzle 150 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 1: and they're all trying to solve it, so they pour 151 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:59,199 Speaker 1: over this data. Okin did and um he said, you 152 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:03,840 Speaker 1: know what, I noticed something here between when we started 153 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 1: recording some some decent unemployment rates, which I didn't know. 154 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 1: I didn't know we started that. Yeah, it seems like 155 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:15,680 Speaker 1: it would have gone back before then. But between sixty 156 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 1: he said, you know what, I've noticed that the gross 157 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 1: national product rises three for every percentage point that unemployment falls, 158 00:09:25,320 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 1: with a caveat that unemployment has to be between three 159 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:32,240 Speaker 1: and seven point five, which is a pretty like it's 160 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 1: a pretty bold statement to say I've noticed this is 161 00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 1: a definite trend. It is, and it came to be 162 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: called Oakland's law because it was verified other people poured 163 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 1: over the data. Like this guy's right, man, he just 164 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:47,599 Speaker 1: keeps coming up with hits, doesn't he Um and The 165 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 1: reason you would want to know some arcane piece of 166 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 1: data like that is that if you know that that's 167 00:09:55,280 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 1: the case, then you can say, well, if we attack unemployment, 168 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 1: can get it down a couple of points. We can 169 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:05,840 Speaker 1: you know, raise g d P or g MP you know, 170 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 1: by three percent every time we drop it. So when 171 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 1: we need to but bulk g m P up, we 172 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 1: just attack unemployment, right, easy peasy. Uh yeah, And everyone said, 173 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: thank you are Yeah. Things worked out pretty well for 174 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:25,199 Speaker 1: a while, but then the nineteen seventies came along, and um, 175 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:27,760 Speaker 1: if you we're gonna talk a little bit about stagflation now. 176 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 1: But if you haven't heard it, we have a pretty 177 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 1: good episode. What's good? I think? So it's called what 178 00:10:34,080 --> 00:10:40,640 Speaker 1: is Stagflation? From February twenty four, two thousand eleven. Um, yeah, 179 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:43,080 Speaker 1: I think as far as our economics episodes that it 180 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 1: was not bad. I went back and listened to a 181 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:49,280 Speaker 1: lot of it before I got bored, so it checks out. Yeah, 182 00:10:49,280 --> 00:10:52,560 Speaker 1: the first three minutes were great. Um, but yeah, I 183 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 1: go back and listen to that. But um, like he said, 184 00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 1: he served as chairman of the c e A for 185 00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 1: Johnson and then in seventy three a very unfortunate thing 186 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 1: happened that kind of ended up rocking the world and 187 00:11:05,600 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 1: the United States in particular with our economy. Um. So 188 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:12,520 Speaker 1: we're gonna take a break and we're gonna talk when 189 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:38,440 Speaker 1: we get back about the Middle East. All right, what 190 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:43,959 Speaker 1: happened in the I'm two years old, I am negative three, Okay, 191 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 1: The Arab oil embargo happened, right, that's right. So at 192 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:51,040 Speaker 1: the time, until very recently, the US was super dependent 193 00:11:51,080 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 1: on for in oil, like like other countries, we wouldn't 194 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 1: even sit down at the table with we were getting 195 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 1: oil from right. Yeah, we're doing and better now, yeah, 196 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 1: with our dependency, But back then, very bad, very um. 197 00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 1: And it was a it was a source of anxiety 198 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 1: for a lot of people. And that anxiety actually panned out. 199 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 1: So in UM nineteen seventy three, Egypt and Syria and 200 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 1: a few other Arab nations invaded the Golden Heights and 201 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:25,160 Speaker 1: the Sinai Peninsula to attempt to take back land um 202 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 1: from the State of Israel. The us UH was found 203 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:33,240 Speaker 1: to be supplying arms to Israel, So as far as 204 00:12:33,280 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 1: the Arab states were concerned, the US had cast its 205 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 1: lot on israel side, and they were fairly peeved about that, 206 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:45,200 Speaker 1: so they literally shut off the tap of oil flowing 207 00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 1: to the United States and other countries that were found 208 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:50,040 Speaker 1: considered to be on the side of Israel in this 209 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:55,000 Speaker 1: in this war, UM huge deal. It was an enormous deal. 210 00:12:55,320 --> 00:13:00,480 Speaker 1: The the this foreign dependency in the the precarious situation 211 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 1: that it places the United States and came to pass 212 00:13:03,240 --> 00:13:06,840 Speaker 1: and the price of oil rose thirty seven. The long 213 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:10,240 Speaker 1: lines at the gas station were never seen before or since, 214 00:13:10,280 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 1: even after the financial crisis of two thousand eight. UM, 215 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,880 Speaker 1: it was just insane. There was gas rationing in the 216 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:20,679 Speaker 1: United States in nineteen because the UM the oil embargoing. 217 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 1: After a while, the tips were turned back on. But 218 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:27,760 Speaker 1: that shocked to the system, screwed the economy up for 219 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:32,679 Speaker 1: a decade. Yeah, inflation went out of control and UM 220 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:38,679 Speaker 1: a very another unfortunately happened along the same timeline. Unemployment 221 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 1: started to creep up. And these two things happening at 222 00:13:42,400 --> 00:13:45,560 Speaker 1: the same time as devastating. Yeah, and up to this point. 223 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,559 Speaker 1: So first of all, the US had never had a 224 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:50,679 Speaker 1: shock to the system like that. That was one thing. 225 00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 1: It wasn't a gradual thing it was. But the other 226 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 1: thing is when you have something that has never happened before. 227 00:13:57,800 --> 00:14:00,680 Speaker 1: You can look at it and say, wow, what happened, 228 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:03,080 Speaker 1: and new things that have never happened before come out 229 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:05,720 Speaker 1: of that. And one of the things was inflation and 230 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:09,200 Speaker 1: unemployment going up, because up to this point, economists just 231 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 1: assumed that the two were mutually exclusive. If you're if 232 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:16,040 Speaker 1: you're um. If inflation was up, prices were high, that 233 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 1: meant that companies could go out and hire more people, 234 00:14:18,960 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 1: so unemployment of course would be low. Yeah, it kind 235 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:24,520 Speaker 1: of made sense. Well not not. After the oil embargo. 236 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 1: The shock to the system led to, like you said, 237 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 1: high unemployment rates and high inflation, and uh, it was 238 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 1: a miserable time. Yeah, and that was called stagflation. It 239 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 1: also led to skateboarding, as we all know. Oh yeah, 240 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: because of the pools, right, yeah, they could and cal 241 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:42,720 Speaker 1: well actually that was the drought, but I think the 242 00:14:42,800 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: drought was also tied into the economics. Sure, but they 243 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 1: couldn't fill up swimming pools, so they started skating in 244 00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:49,920 Speaker 1: swimming pools. Well, yeah, if you have a drought, then 245 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 1: you lose your crops, and if you lose your crops, 246 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 1: you lose money, a significant sector of the of money exactly. 247 00:14:55,400 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 1: So good news. We have half pipes now quarter pipe 248 00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 1: and peralta. There they're still around, right. I think bad 249 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 1: news is like you said, it had a devastating effect 250 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:11,800 Speaker 1: for many, many years on the United States. So Oakland 251 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 1: starts to look around. He said, you know what, things 252 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:16,480 Speaker 1: are pretty bad here. One might even say miserable. I 253 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: haven't gotten any acclaim for a while. Yeah, nothing's been 254 00:15:19,200 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 1: named after me in a while. So let me create 255 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 1: this new, uh, this new method for looking at the economy. 256 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:29,400 Speaker 1: And it turns out to not be like a a 257 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 1: look over a period of time or anything, but just 258 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 1: sort of like a polaroid of that day and not 259 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 1: just that day for like the country as a whole, 260 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 1: or um for the FED or anything like that. But 261 00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 1: what he did that was different was he looked into 262 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 1: what the what it was like that day or that 263 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 1: year for the average American in their daily life. And 264 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:57,680 Speaker 1: he called it the misery index. Yeah, and it was 265 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 1: very rudimentary. Uh at the time. It was just simple 266 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 1: calculation of the yearly rate of inflation plus the unemployment rate. Yeah. 267 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:10,520 Speaker 1: So if you have like five percent inflation and two 268 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 1: percent unemployment, you have a seven percent misery index. It's 269 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:15,280 Speaker 1: as simple as that. I don't know why it got 270 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:17,440 Speaker 1: so much, you know what. It was hailed as a 271 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 1: big deal because I think Oakin had a a a 272 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: knack for noticing things that seemed obvious in retrospect, but 273 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:29,720 Speaker 1: at the time no one had ever noticed before. I'll 274 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:32,600 Speaker 1: buy it, thank you. Why not? Alright, So now he 275 00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 1: has this index, and not only can he look at 276 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:37,480 Speaker 1: a snapshot of that day, he can go back because 277 00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 1: he was a a data walk and he could look 278 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 1: at data throughout history, well at least to yeah, which 279 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 1: is just when we started recording unemployment, like we said, 280 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 1: which must have been frustrating for him because our um 281 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 1: our inflation rates data goes back to nineteen But that's 282 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:57,200 Speaker 1: only part of the equation. Well, it must have been like, 283 00:16:57,320 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 1: oh man, sure, and to be able to look at 284 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:01,040 Speaker 1: the great depress and you could have learned a lot, 285 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 1: you know. Uh. So he went and he looked back 286 00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 1: and he says, here is what we've noticed, and this 287 00:17:06,640 --> 00:17:10,800 Speaker 1: is so obvious to me, uh, that that presidents and 288 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:13,560 Speaker 1: political parties are brought in and out of office largely 289 00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 1: depending on how the economy is doing. Yeah, but they 290 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:19,080 Speaker 1: kind of proved it, but not even just how the 291 00:17:19,119 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 1: economy is doing like he he was saying, like, the 292 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 1: misery index you can use to predict whether the the 293 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:32,439 Speaker 1: presidency's going to change hands politically. So, uh, misery index 294 00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:37,280 Speaker 1: is six point five three, which is great. That's during like, yeah, 295 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 1: very low. Mr Eisenhower, President Eisenhower, and he got reelected 296 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: because things were pretty good, right as far as the 297 00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:49,640 Speaker 1: misery index goes. Yeah, yeah, everybody was pretty happy, even 298 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:51,639 Speaker 1: though they didn't really know what the misery index was 299 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,959 Speaker 1: because it wasn't invented yet. They just had a general sense. 300 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:57,199 Speaker 1: Well yeah, they didn't call it that at a time. No, 301 00:17:57,320 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 1: They're just like, seems fine to me. You're miserable. We 302 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:05,040 Speaker 1: I No, I'm not miserable, are you? So night Johnson 303 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,359 Speaker 1: came to the end of his term and the misery 304 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:10,200 Speaker 1: index was up to eight point one three, And then 305 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:14,440 Speaker 1: he had his Democratic successor, Hubert Humphrey in line, and 306 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:17,360 Speaker 1: because the thing had crept up, people a little more 307 00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 1: miserable and they said, now get out of here. I 308 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:23,000 Speaker 1: want Mr Nixon in office, right, And I guess I'm not. 309 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:25,760 Speaker 1: I'm not sure about this, So I don't understand why 310 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:30,879 Speaker 1: Johnson was replaced by Humphrey by the Democrats and in 311 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 1: this article, and it seems to be because of this 312 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 1: misery index that it would have predicted that. But he 313 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:43,679 Speaker 1: was the incumbent president, so let's see, so he was 314 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:46,719 Speaker 1: he would have should know this, No, he Yeah, he 315 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 1: was a one term or technically one in a third 316 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 1: or one in a quarter because he took over after 317 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:55,040 Speaker 1: Kennedy's assassination. But if his term was up in sixty eight, 318 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,880 Speaker 1: then he would have won the sixty four election, so 319 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 1: he technically, I think, would have been able to have 320 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 1: been president. Again, I'm not sure we could have found 321 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:06,000 Speaker 1: this out too sure, but I'll bet there's somebody out 322 00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 1: there who can explain it to us, and so email us, 323 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 1: will you? Uh? At any rate, Nixon gets elected and um, 324 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,920 Speaker 1: the misery index shot up to eleven point six seven 325 00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:20,000 Speaker 1: during the first term, but then started to decline enough 326 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:23,600 Speaker 1: that he did get re elected. UM. But then uh, 327 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy four, with Watergate, the misery index leapt 328 00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:29,200 Speaker 1: all the way up to seventeen point oh one. That's 329 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 1: not good now, that's that was the all time high 330 00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 1: at the time from what I understand. I UM, and 331 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 1: that happened around nineteen seventy four, which meant that when 332 00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:42,560 Speaker 1: Watergate broke. Some people who have really subscribed to the 333 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,640 Speaker 1: misery index say Watergate might not have been quite as 334 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 1: big a deal. If, um the misery index have been 335 00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:50,879 Speaker 1: low at the time, he might have been able to 336 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:55,040 Speaker 1: squeak by without resigning or being forced out of office. 337 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 1: I think everyone has more leeway if things are great, 338 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 1: you know. But he his his his currency had been spent. Man. 339 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 1: I watched All the President's Men a few weeks ago. Again, 340 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:10,400 Speaker 1: have you ever seen that great, great movie? Yeah, I've 341 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:13,399 Speaker 1: always meant to, really really good and just sort of like, 342 00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 1: they don't make a lot of movies like that anymore. 343 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:19,920 Speaker 1: Spotlight reminded me of All the Presidents Men. It's good. 344 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:21,760 Speaker 1: It's just I call it movies for adults. You know. 345 00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 1: There's no chase scenes or anything remarkable. It's just good 346 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:30,120 Speaker 1: dramatic movie making. Yeah, good stuff anyway, Wait, what's wrong 347 00:20:30,119 --> 00:20:33,600 Speaker 1: with chase scenes? Huh? What's wrong with chase? No, there's 348 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 1: nothing inherently wrong with the chase. But I know what 349 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 1: you mean, just for the sake of a chase scene, 350 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:39,680 Speaker 1: which we see a lot of these days, you know 351 00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:41,960 Speaker 1: what I mean, Like Mark Ruffalo is chasing a priest 352 00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:47,879 Speaker 1: in a car and spotlight. Yeah, um, where were we? Okay, 353 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:50,800 Speaker 1: we're with Nixon. Um one that with Nixon, you know 354 00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 1: what I mean. Ford comes in office for a short 355 00:20:54,560 --> 00:20:56,720 Speaker 1: time and he actually managed to get the misery and 356 00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 1: next year down. Well, I think just the fact that 357 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:02,760 Speaker 1: Nixon was out. I think that probably helped um you 358 00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:07,120 Speaker 1: know and inspire like consumer confidence in the like. So 359 00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:09,199 Speaker 1: it crept back down to twelve point six six, but 360 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:13,399 Speaker 1: not enough to keep um, the Democrats and Jimmy Carter 361 00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 1: from coming into office. And Carter actually cited the misery index. 362 00:21:17,440 --> 00:21:19,639 Speaker 1: It was relatively new at the time. He talked too 363 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:20,960 Speaker 1: much about it, but it was it was a g 364 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:23,359 Speaker 1: whiz thing that you could really just point to like 365 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,159 Speaker 1: this plus this, this is the misery index. Can you 366 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:30,320 Speaker 1: can you hear me? That's my car? But that was 367 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 1: his famous quote, can you hear me? It came back 368 00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 1: to haunt him though, to say the least, because he 369 00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:37,679 Speaker 1: talked a lot about the misery Index and then in 370 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:42,760 Speaker 1: his term the it reached an all time high of 371 00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:48,680 Speaker 1: twenty one. Yeah, which, man, I really think that shock 372 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 1: to the system. Under the oil embargo, UM and plenty 373 00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 1: of other stuff. This stuff gets laid at Carter's feet, 374 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 1: I think unfairly in a lot of respects. Well, I mean, 375 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,680 Speaker 1: I would love for someone to really that really knows 376 00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 1: their stuff to explain to me exactly how much a 377 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:10,639 Speaker 1: president's influence has on the economy and how long it 378 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:14,600 Speaker 1: takes for that to bear fruit. Yeah, I would love 379 00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,120 Speaker 1: to know that too, I think though, Uh, the guy 380 00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 1: who came after Carter Reagan is a pretty sterling, unassailable 381 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:26,480 Speaker 1: example of an impact a president can have on the economy. 382 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,720 Speaker 1: Whether you agree with his politics or his economic policies 383 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:34,280 Speaker 1: or not, he most decidedly had an effect on the economy. Yeah. 384 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,880 Speaker 1: I just remember hearing one time. I need to look 385 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:39,520 Speaker 1: this up, but somebody told me once that that the 386 00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:43,679 Speaker 1: economic impact of a presidential four year term is felt 387 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:46,359 Speaker 1: the most like eight years later or something. Yeah, that 388 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:49,120 Speaker 1: makes sense to me. Economies don't move on a dime. Yeah, 389 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,639 Speaker 1: I just I don't know if that's holking lumbering things. 390 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 1: They aren't fully understood by anybody. Yeah, it's interesting to 391 00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:58,080 Speaker 1: me now more than ever before. Though, don't remember. Economics 392 00:22:58,160 --> 00:22:59,920 Speaker 1: used to just bore me. I know, I was really 393 00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:03,959 Speaker 1: really surprised when you suggested this one. It's slightly more 394 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:07,879 Speaker 1: interesting to me, now what changed? Oh? Just wondering things 395 00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 1: like that and during an election season, like are the 396 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 1: decisions we make now gonna affect us in one year 397 00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:18,360 Speaker 1: or two years? Eight years? Uh? Yeah, Well, if there's 398 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 1: any economists who are still listening after that initial remark 399 00:23:21,880 --> 00:23:25,240 Speaker 1: about the new astrology, we'd love to to get a 400 00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 1: primer on how long it takes for a president to 401 00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:30,679 Speaker 1: impact an economy, if they do at all. And I'm 402 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,120 Speaker 1: sure it's a arranged you know, it's not like starting 403 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,800 Speaker 1: at eight years and really honestly, was Carter that band 404 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 1: or was he a victim of cross stars? Yeah? I 405 00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 1: mean you can make a case where a lot of 406 00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 1: bills of presidencies not being directly at their feet. Well 407 00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:52,240 Speaker 1: you remember that, uh Simpsons where they unveil a statue 408 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 1: of Jimmy Carter in Springfield and on the pedestal it 409 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:59,160 Speaker 1: says Malaise Forever, and somebody goes, Jimmy Carter, He's history's 410 00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:05,760 Speaker 1: greatest monster. Carter. So, like we said, that came back 411 00:24:05,760 --> 00:24:08,240 Speaker 1: to haunt Carter because he talked a lot about the index. 412 00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 1: It rose a lot. Then Reagan came in was like, well, 413 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:12,960 Speaker 1: let's talk about that misery index that you like to 414 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,919 Speaker 1: talk about so much, that's at an all time high. 415 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:18,360 Speaker 1: Reagan got in there, um knocked it down to nine 416 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,840 Speaker 1: point five five by the end of his term, enough 417 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:25,160 Speaker 1: to get Bush Senior in UM it inched up some. 418 00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,439 Speaker 1: Then Clinton was able to Uh, it didn't go up 419 00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:30,920 Speaker 1: that much, though. And I read an interesting article today 420 00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:34,240 Speaker 1: on whether or not Ross Pero really got Clinton elected, 421 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:37,639 Speaker 1: because that's sort of the popular thought he was a spoiler. Yeah, 422 00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 1: I could see that, but um, he's definitely more in 423 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:44,640 Speaker 1: line with UM Bush Seniors policies than Clinton's. Well at 424 00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:46,920 Speaker 1: the time, yeah, you would think, but I read, uh, 425 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:48,800 Speaker 1: I read one article that said that it was kind 426 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,680 Speaker 1: of a myth that basically that Clinton won by six 427 00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,639 Speaker 1: million votes and it would have taken seventy of Paros 428 00:24:55,720 --> 00:25:01,919 Speaker 1: supporters to have uh been aligned with with Bush m hm, 429 00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 1: and supposedly exit polls showed showed it more like thirty 430 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:09,840 Speaker 1: And so they're saying it's sort of a myth that 431 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,359 Speaker 1: Pero swung the election to Clinton. I see, but I 432 00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,639 Speaker 1: mean that was one person's opinion to who knows. You know, 433 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,119 Speaker 1: I've been reading a lot about you know that we 434 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,520 Speaker 1: that that suspicion you can't quite kick that there's really 435 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:25,040 Speaker 1: no difference between Republicans and Democrats these days, that they're 436 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 1: really just kind of all in the same little club. 437 00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:31,160 Speaker 1: I think people feel that way sometimes. I've been reading 438 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:36,080 Speaker 1: a lot about that, and apparently it's all based on neoliberalism. 439 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:39,800 Speaker 1: That's like the key and um, there's there's a lot 440 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 1: of If you look into Neil liberalism and the policies 441 00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,720 Speaker 1: of neoliberalism, you realize we're like living in the thick 442 00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,679 Speaker 1: of it. But no one everyone's kind of blind to 443 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,159 Speaker 1: the idea that it's just a single thing that basically 444 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:55,920 Speaker 1: everybody in power subscribes to and that it has a 445 00:25:55,920 --> 00:26:00,520 Speaker 1: trickle down effect of screwing over everybody below the top. Um. 446 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,239 Speaker 1: But just the name itself seems totally fine, you know, 447 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:07,200 Speaker 1: but it's a it's it's interesting. Yeah. I researched that 448 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,639 Speaker 1: a little bit lately too. Yeah, there's been some good article. 449 00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 1: We totally should let's do it, Chuck agreed. Man, we're 450 00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 1: gonna get some emails for that one from billionaires. Yeah. Um, 451 00:26:18,880 --> 00:26:23,120 Speaker 1: so let's just finish out this quick little recap. Clinton 452 00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:26,760 Speaker 1: brought it down to seven point three five. Things were great, 453 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:31,159 Speaker 1: Bush Junior gets elected. Um, despite the fact that Clinton 454 00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 1: had a low index. Well, it depends on how you 455 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,720 Speaker 1: look at the two thousand election. We should do one 456 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:38,560 Speaker 1: on that one too. But this is the This is 457 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,439 Speaker 1: that's considered one of those rare instances where the misery 458 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,840 Speaker 1: index didn't indicate where it was going to go. But 459 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:47,800 Speaker 1: you could also say it might have had things gone 460 00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:51,639 Speaker 1: slightly differently. In the Supreme Court, George W. Bush, the 461 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,440 Speaker 1: index rose from seven point three five to eleven point four, 462 00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 1: and then Obama came in it went down to seven 463 00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,480 Speaker 1: point eight seven. But another weird flaw in the system 464 00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:03,320 Speaker 1: is exposed there because, um, despite the fact that the 465 00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,960 Speaker 1: misery index was lower, things were not good. The stock 466 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:10,640 Speaker 1: market had crashed, unemployment was rising at a rapid rate, 467 00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 1: and they said, you know this. It basically was another 468 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:15,760 Speaker 1: example of like, look, this misery index isn't all it's 469 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:18,720 Speaker 1: cracked up to be, right, so let's work on it. Yeah, 470 00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:21,640 Speaker 1: I think a lot of people said this is too simplistic, 471 00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,800 Speaker 1: you can't rely on this. But we'll talk about some 472 00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 1: of the additional factors that people have worked into the 473 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:54,840 Speaker 1: misery index after this. All right, Chuck, So the misery 474 00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:59,320 Speaker 1: index open. Everybody's happy with him. They're like, this is 475 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 1: just too simple. Well, especially in what's called the post 476 00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:08,119 Speaker 1: stagflation era after the oil embargo UM. And so some 477 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,760 Speaker 1: people have said, okay, you can there's certainly there's other 478 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,320 Speaker 1: things you can add and to give a genuine, true 479 00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:16,920 Speaker 1: snapshot of what the conditions are like on the ground, 480 00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,159 Speaker 1: as it were, right, Well, yeah, not only what the 481 00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,359 Speaker 1: conditions are, but whether or not performance over a period 482 00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:25,840 Speaker 1: of time is getting better getting worse. Yes, And you know, 483 00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:29,560 Speaker 1: rather than say, oh, under under this president, the misery 484 00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:31,280 Speaker 1: index was this, you know, and it gives you a 485 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:35,240 Speaker 1: pretty good idea. This with this one guy um named 486 00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:39,680 Speaker 1: Robert Barrow. He wrote book called Getting It Right, Markets 487 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,280 Speaker 1: and Choices in a Free Society, and in it he 488 00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:45,880 Speaker 1: takes the misery index Oapen's Misery Index, and he says, 489 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:48,640 Speaker 1: we can add some stuff to this to to make 490 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,320 Speaker 1: it an even clearer picture, not just of the conditions 491 00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:53,160 Speaker 1: on the ground, but you can take it and apply 492 00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:57,080 Speaker 1: it genuinely to a president's entire term to see just 493 00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:00,360 Speaker 1: how good their economic policies were or weren't the health 494 00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:03,640 Speaker 1: of the economy. And he added some other stuff. Yeah, 495 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:07,520 Speaker 1: he added four main new measurements. Uh, took the inflation 496 00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:11,080 Speaker 1: rate during the last year of the president's term, compared 497 00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:14,560 Speaker 1: it to the average inflation rate over the entire course 498 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:18,560 Speaker 1: of the subsequent president's term, which is based on what 499 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:22,320 Speaker 1: you were saying that like the a four year term, 500 00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,120 Speaker 1: the effects are felt like years down the road. Sure, 501 00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:27,320 Speaker 1: so I think that's what he was doing there, right, Yeah, 502 00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:29,600 Speaker 1: it makes sense. Did the same thing with the rate 503 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:33,239 Speaker 1: of unemployment. That was number two. Ah. He added in 504 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:38,160 Speaker 1: changes for the thirty year government bond yield over a presidency. 505 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:41,520 Speaker 1: And then finally he said, UM, I need to look 506 00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:45,200 Speaker 1: at the difference between the long term GDP growth the 507 00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:49,160 Speaker 1: real rate of growth. Compare all these things along with 508 00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,720 Speaker 1: the original Uh, this plus this equals this, right, and 509 00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,280 Speaker 1: with the real growth rate. Um, that's where you take 510 00:29:55,800 --> 00:30:00,120 Speaker 1: the actual change either the shrinking or the growth of 511 00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:03,520 Speaker 1: the economy the g d P year over year. Right. 512 00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,320 Speaker 1: And he took that for year after year over the 513 00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:08,760 Speaker 1: course of a presidency and averaged it out. I guess 514 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:11,440 Speaker 1: that's right. Yeah, And he came up with what's called 515 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:14,600 Speaker 1: the Barrow Misery Index. And UM, A lot of people 516 00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 1: think that that's where the misery index started. When In fact, 517 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,200 Speaker 1: it was Oakin who came up with it about twenty 518 00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:24,600 Speaker 1: years before Barrow took it up and improved it. So 519 00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:28,480 Speaker 1: under Barrow's misery index, UM Clinton and Reagan that's Bill 520 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:30,920 Speaker 1: Clinton of course came out on top. Uh. And then 521 00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,160 Speaker 1: it got named Steve Hankey about ten years later. This 522 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,840 Speaker 1: was originally and then Hankey came along in two thousand 523 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,760 Speaker 1: six and said, you know what, we need to add 524 00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:42,280 Speaker 1: even more things. And this all just makes sense. You 525 00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,320 Speaker 1: need to if you want a more detailed picture, then 526 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:47,360 Speaker 1: add more detail to the data going in, you know. 527 00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:51,440 Speaker 1: So he said, we need more detail. Uh, why don't 528 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:55,400 Speaker 1: we do this. Let's um, let's measure inflation and unemployment 529 00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,960 Speaker 1: like we're doing, and then let's now add interest rates 530 00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:02,520 Speaker 1: and subtract annual percentages from the GDP to get a 531 00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:06,200 Speaker 1: more accurate picture. And he said, you can use us anywhere, 532 00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:07,760 Speaker 1: you can use it all over the world. Well that's 533 00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 1: what he did, and that's kind of what made his 534 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:11,880 Speaker 1: his version of it pretty famous. He figured out how 535 00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:16,160 Speaker 1: to apply it to other countries, even countries that used 536 00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:20,040 Speaker 1: UM price controls to keep inflation in check, which means 537 00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:25,120 Speaker 1: price inflation is held back artificially. So Hanky looked into 538 00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:28,040 Speaker 1: other things like, um, the exchange rate in the black 539 00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,440 Speaker 1: market in the given country, that kind of thing, um, 540 00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:33,200 Speaker 1: and he figured out real inflation rates and he applied 541 00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:36,160 Speaker 1: it around the world to find out what country is 542 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:39,040 Speaker 1: the most miserable in what country is the least miserable. 543 00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 1: And what he found in two thousand fourteen was that 544 00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:44,720 Speaker 1: the most miserable country in the world was Venezuela, which 545 00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:49,200 Speaker 1: had a Hanky Misery index of seventy nine point four. 546 00:31:49,720 --> 00:31:53,040 Speaker 1: It's pretty high high, uh, and then Japan had the 547 00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:57,400 Speaker 1: lowest misery at five point four one. Yeah. The US 548 00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:02,560 Speaker 1: came in at about nineteen, correct I think eleven? Yeah? No, no, no, 549 00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:06,000 Speaker 1: eleven was our Oh I'm sorry nineteen yeah, yeah, ranked 550 00:32:06,120 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 1: nineteen within eleven. I didn't hear that, Yeah, because my 551 00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:15,120 Speaker 1: tooth is still gone. You think it'd be it would 552 00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:20,240 Speaker 1: be more pronounced if there were nineteen, I would have 553 00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:24,560 Speaker 1: heard it clear as about August can't get here soon enough. 554 00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:30,000 Speaker 1: So um. There are critics of this one too, though. 555 00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:33,320 Speaker 1: There's critics of all these indexes. Well, yeah, a lot 556 00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:37,720 Speaker 1: of them say no, still too elementary. Yeah, some people 557 00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:40,400 Speaker 1: say this is all just try like you can't you 558 00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:42,800 Speaker 1: can't use this stuff to to make any real predictions. 559 00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:45,520 Speaker 1: You could use it to look back at the past, 560 00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:47,680 Speaker 1: but to use it for the future, probably not. But 561 00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:50,080 Speaker 1: some people do believe in the idea that if you 562 00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:53,360 Speaker 1: have enough data and the right kind of data, you 563 00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:56,280 Speaker 1: can get a clear picture of misery. And again, that's 564 00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,720 Speaker 1: what we're after here, Like the whole point of the 565 00:32:58,760 --> 00:33:02,640 Speaker 1: misery and next is to figure out how unhappy and 566 00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:06,360 Speaker 1: and just low the average person in a country is 567 00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:10,680 Speaker 1: feeling at that moment. Right. So, um, HuffPo actually came 568 00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:14,160 Speaker 1: up with a pretty good one huff po boo. Yeah. 569 00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,479 Speaker 1: In two thousand nine, HuffPo came up with what they 570 00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:21,240 Speaker 1: called the Real Misery Index, Right. And so a lot 571 00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:24,880 Speaker 1: of people cite the the use of what's called you 572 00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:29,680 Speaker 1: three unemployment statistics, which when you hear unemployment numbers in 573 00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:32,360 Speaker 1: the news, that's what you're hearing. That's what the Bureau 574 00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:37,600 Speaker 1: of Labor Statistics issues as the official unemployment numbers. Right. Yeah, 575 00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:40,520 Speaker 1: And that's the very first thing that people will say, 576 00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:44,120 Speaker 1: if they want to poop poo the unemployment numbers, that 577 00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:47,000 Speaker 1: that these are these are just false numbers. Yeah. If 578 00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,640 Speaker 1: someone says, hey, man, look how great ex president is doing. 579 00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,080 Speaker 1: Look at the unemployment rate, right man, they're just using 580 00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:54,520 Speaker 1: the U three. They need to use the U six. 581 00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,400 Speaker 1: Wake up, pal up in your eyes, which you know 582 00:33:57,520 --> 00:34:00,600 Speaker 1: is valid. Well yeah, so, um, the e l S 583 00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:05,480 Speaker 1: has six measurements of unemployment. You one through U six, 584 00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:10,280 Speaker 1: and YOU six is the broadest. It includes people who 585 00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,880 Speaker 1: are so discouraged with the state of the job market 586 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,799 Speaker 1: that they've given up looking for work and are just like, 587 00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:22,440 Speaker 1: have given themselves over entirely to judge Alex right, and 588 00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:26,279 Speaker 1: then um. It also includes people who are working part 589 00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,239 Speaker 1: time but wish they could work full time, but there's 590 00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:31,720 Speaker 1: no full time work available, Like I'm a graphic designer 591 00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:35,040 Speaker 1: about I work at Starbucks. So that's the U six measurement. 592 00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:40,040 Speaker 1: That's and that's considered the the broadest snapshot of unemployment, 593 00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,959 Speaker 1: the real um vision of unemployment. Yeah, like you said, 594 00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:46,560 Speaker 1: mostly they use you three, I guess because it's in 595 00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:48,399 Speaker 1: the middle. I mean you one. They would never use 596 00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:57,480 Speaker 1: you two. Everybody used to like but not anymore. I 597 00:34:57,520 --> 00:35:00,640 Speaker 1: still like you too, you get yeah, you know, not 598 00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,520 Speaker 1: like I used to. I'm not poo and anything, but 599 00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:07,080 Speaker 1: I did see that concert they did on the HBO, 600 00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:09,839 Speaker 1: and I have to hand it to him. My big 601 00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:12,480 Speaker 1: problem with you two for years it was they just 602 00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:15,160 Speaker 1: got so out of control with those live shows like 603 00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:19,040 Speaker 1: these Giant Spider spaceships and things. And I was always 604 00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:20,920 Speaker 1: of the belief that, man, you need to go back 605 00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,840 Speaker 1: to basics and just get up on stage and play again. 606 00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:26,560 Speaker 1: And that's what they did with this new tour. I mean, 607 00:35:26,760 --> 00:35:29,040 Speaker 1: there was a cool visual element, but the stage set 608 00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:30,759 Speaker 1: up in the way they did it was very much 609 00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,240 Speaker 1: back to basics, and it I think they really connected 610 00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:37,680 Speaker 1: with fans again. Yeah, that's kind of help. Yeah, because 611 00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:40,880 Speaker 1: you can only when the when the interactions between you 612 00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:43,840 Speaker 1: and the fans rather than the fans and giant spiders. Yeah, 613 00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:46,000 Speaker 1: you just you can only go so far in that direction. 614 00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,640 Speaker 1: I think they realized that. Sure. Anyway, where do you 615 00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:53,200 Speaker 1: go YouTube? I'll defend those guys. Um, even though I 616 00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:55,839 Speaker 1: know everyone in the world generally wants to punch Bono 617 00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,359 Speaker 1: in the face, I know I'm not one of them. 618 00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:02,080 Speaker 1: Kind of feel weird. I like them. Yeah, I'm on record. 619 00:36:03,200 --> 00:36:06,880 Speaker 1: I know if you're listening, well, if you're Jared indicators, 620 00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:09,719 Speaker 1: any any predictor Bono is going to come out to 621 00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:13,920 Speaker 1: be canonized one day, what you know, you're like, just 622 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:15,960 Speaker 1: something about Jared. I don't like him, and you know 623 00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:19,719 Speaker 1: we found out about Jared and then um, now you're 624 00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:24,000 Speaker 1: saying something's got like they're going to find a cure 625 00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:28,040 Speaker 1: for cancer and a saliva or something. You never know. Um, 626 00:36:28,120 --> 00:36:31,920 Speaker 1: so did we even mention what the HuffPo what kind 627 00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:34,719 Speaker 1: of outrageous numbers they came up with? No, well, we 628 00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:36,719 Speaker 1: didn't mention everything they used. We were talking about the 629 00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:40,120 Speaker 1: use six measurement. HuffPo used that measurement, the most extreme 630 00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:44,200 Speaker 1: one of unemployment numbers. They also used other things like, um, 631 00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:49,400 Speaker 1: the inflation rate of food and drink and fuel and healthcare. 632 00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:53,680 Speaker 1: Because other the misery index just uses the consumer price index, 633 00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:58,000 Speaker 1: which is inflation as a whole. HuffPo used, um, the 634 00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:01,359 Speaker 1: the inflation of some really essential things that people can't 635 00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:04,120 Speaker 1: do without and where you're gonna immediately feel the pinch 636 00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:07,319 Speaker 1: when prices go up with those factors, right. Um. They 637 00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,839 Speaker 1: also included the rate of credit card delinquency, the cost 638 00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,640 Speaker 1: of housing, how many people are using food stamps. That 639 00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:17,360 Speaker 1: seems like a smart move to home, equity loan deficiencies. 640 00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:21,280 Speaker 1: I guess people who are laid on their payments um. 641 00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:23,360 Speaker 1: And then they took the average of those seven numbers 642 00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:26,720 Speaker 1: and added it to the U six unemployment numbers, which 643 00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:29,959 Speaker 1: here you can step back and say, wait a minute, 644 00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,480 Speaker 1: how would you how are you adding this together? How 645 00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:35,359 Speaker 1: does this make any sense? You can't just keep adding things, right, 646 00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:37,600 Speaker 1: And really you can take that all the way back 647 00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,320 Speaker 1: to the initial misery index, like what You're just adding 648 00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:43,040 Speaker 1: unemployment percentage and inflation, and all of a sudden you 649 00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:46,239 Speaker 1: have a magic number that doesn't make any sense. This 650 00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:49,000 Speaker 1: HuffPo metric really points out the inherent flaw in it. 651 00:37:49,160 --> 00:37:52,040 Speaker 1: I think, yeah, because in two thousand eight, the Oakland 652 00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:55,680 Speaker 1: Misery Index was eight point one, but huff po's real 653 00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:59,279 Speaker 1: Misery Index a k A. You think things are bad, 654 00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:02,239 Speaker 1: here's how bad they really are index was twenty nine 655 00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:04,719 Speaker 1: point nine compared to the eight point one, right, And 656 00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:06,839 Speaker 1: some people are like, oh, well, that just shows how 657 00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:12,360 Speaker 1: off the Oaken misery index is. Who knows. I know 658 00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:15,359 Speaker 1: they quit doing the real Misery Index at HUFPO like 659 00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,680 Speaker 1: five years ago. I think it was a am I 660 00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:20,080 Speaker 1: going to call it a stunt. It was a bit 661 00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:23,680 Speaker 1: of a stunt maybe, but I'm sure Really what happened 662 00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:27,200 Speaker 1: was the writer who was contributing it for free. Sure, 663 00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:30,960 Speaker 1: like left for a paying job. That's probably what happened 664 00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:34,520 Speaker 1: to the HuffPo Real Misery in Dingy. Yeah, you're probably right. Um, 665 00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,920 Speaker 1: I was reading this guy, Tim McMahon. He has a site, 666 00:38:38,120 --> 00:38:39,840 Speaker 1: or he writes first site, I'm not sure it's his. 667 00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:44,120 Speaker 1: Are not called inflation data dot com. Jim McMahon, Tim 668 00:38:44,120 --> 00:38:48,520 Speaker 1: his brother, not the Super Bowl Shuffle, No, his brother. Um. 669 00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:52,960 Speaker 1: So he mentioned this two thousand one paper that concluded 670 00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:58,080 Speaker 1: that unemployment causes one point seven times more misery than inflation. 671 00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:01,320 Speaker 1: And so if you're doing any kind of misery index 672 00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:04,959 Speaker 1: that uses those two, you need to first multiply the 673 00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:08,200 Speaker 1: unemployment number by one point seven before adding it to 674 00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:12,440 Speaker 1: um the inflation number to to properly wait it and 675 00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:14,360 Speaker 1: like how did they come up with that? So I 676 00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:16,680 Speaker 1: looked at the paper. It was actually pretty clever. There's 677 00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:20,359 Speaker 1: like twenty three years of the survey of life satisfaction 678 00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:23,200 Speaker 1: and happiness that these researchers looked at back in two 679 00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:27,239 Speaker 1: thousand one, and they found that um economically based or 680 00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:29,080 Speaker 1: just like how happy are you? Know here's the thing, 681 00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:31,279 Speaker 1: it was, how happy are you? It was like a 682 00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:34,200 Speaker 1: single question like would you say, based on how you're 683 00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:37,960 Speaker 1: feeling right now, that you are fairly satisfied, unsatisfied, very 684 00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,719 Speaker 1: satisfied with your life right now right. And then they 685 00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:44,239 Speaker 1: took that that measurement for that that country as a whole, 686 00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,160 Speaker 1: and you can do this for any country that participated 687 00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:48,560 Speaker 1: in the survey. And then they looked at inflation, and 688 00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:52,759 Speaker 1: then they looked at um unemployment for those years and 689 00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:56,080 Speaker 1: they could figure out the the variation between or the 690 00:39:56,440 --> 00:40:02,839 Speaker 1: interplay between unemployment and inflation andatisfaction. And they found that 691 00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:07,880 Speaker 1: that um that unemployment was one time one point seven 692 00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:12,640 Speaker 1: times more miserable than inflation in regards to life satis 693 00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:15,799 Speaker 1: fashion as that survey goes pretty clever. Yeah, it's a 694 00:40:15,800 --> 00:40:17,759 Speaker 1: lot of hocus pocus, but it's I thought it was 695 00:40:17,760 --> 00:40:19,799 Speaker 1: pretty clever how they did it. That makes sense to 696 00:40:19,840 --> 00:40:22,719 Speaker 1: me because to be without work, like if you have 697 00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:25,759 Speaker 1: a job and things inflation is happening, you still have 698 00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:28,000 Speaker 1: your job, sure, and you're like, man, this sucks to 699 00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:30,600 Speaker 1: pay this much more, but you can still conceivably pay 700 00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:32,719 Speaker 1: for Yeah, I'll cut back here or there. If you 701 00:40:32,960 --> 00:40:35,759 Speaker 1: if you're unemployed, then there's not a lot of hope. Yeah, 702 00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:38,879 Speaker 1: one the number might be conservative you. Yeah, I agree 703 00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:44,160 Speaker 1: with you. Very interesting stuff. So that's uh, that's it, man, 704 00:40:44,200 --> 00:40:48,759 Speaker 1: that's the misery Index. You got anything else, No, but 705 00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:52,400 Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to hearing from economists that me too, 706 00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:54,799 Speaker 1: like in an unbiased way to try to explain things. 707 00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:57,680 Speaker 1: Me too. If you if you send just you know, 708 00:40:57,760 --> 00:41:01,680 Speaker 1: these crazy political emails and they're they're gonna fall in 709 00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:04,839 Speaker 1: deaf ears because everyone yells at each other that they're right. 710 00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:10,480 Speaker 1: I just want to hear some real numbers, do it, chuck. Uh. 711 00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:12,440 Speaker 1: If you want to know more about the misery index, 712 00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:14,520 Speaker 1: you can type those words in the search bar how 713 00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:16,879 Speaker 1: stuff works dot com. And since I said search bar, 714 00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:19,279 Speaker 1: just play an old search bar. It's time for a 715 00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:25,160 Speaker 1: listener mail. I'm gonna call this, uh follow up on 716 00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:30,439 Speaker 1: vocal fry once again. Oh yeah, um. Regarding vocal fry, guys, Uh, 717 00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:34,920 Speaker 1: you guys were offended because someone said vocal fry was repulsive. 718 00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:38,320 Speaker 1: But there is another side of this, Dude's I suffer 719 00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:42,480 Speaker 1: from a neurological disorder known as miss aphonia, which we 720 00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:44,799 Speaker 1: totally should do a show in this. I agree. It's 721 00:41:44,800 --> 00:41:47,640 Speaker 1: a condition where a person has extreme emotional response to 722 00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,759 Speaker 1: commonly occurring sounds and I remember hearing a lot of times, 723 00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:54,480 Speaker 1: just like people chewing noises or gum or whatever, um 724 00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:56,160 Speaker 1: he said. In my case, my trigger noise is the 725 00:41:56,239 --> 00:42:00,600 Speaker 1: high pitched s sound when some people speak. Uh. It 726 00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:03,240 Speaker 1: feels like my brain is cringing, as if an allergic 727 00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:06,239 Speaker 1: reaction is taking place. Cannot stress enough. This is not 728 00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:09,000 Speaker 1: a mere annoyance, as a legitimate mental disorder that can 729 00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:12,879 Speaker 1: vary great and greatly in severity. I don't visibly freak 730 00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:14,399 Speaker 1: out when I hear my trigger noise, but it really 731 00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:18,040 Speaker 1: kills me inside. Gives me an instant headache. And that's why, 732 00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:20,000 Speaker 1: which is why I will get away from the noise 733 00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:24,280 Speaker 1: if at all possible. UM. I believe in avoiding complaining 734 00:42:24,280 --> 00:42:26,839 Speaker 1: in life and playing the victim, but this disorder really 735 00:42:26,880 --> 00:42:29,560 Speaker 1: has made my life like a subtle hell. It's been 736 00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:33,239 Speaker 1: especially toxic to my family relationships and my ability to 737 00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:36,279 Speaker 1: learn in school. UM. I felt compelled to email you guys, 738 00:42:36,280 --> 00:42:40,160 Speaker 1: because you definitely appreciate interesting medical conditions. I think would 739 00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:42,440 Speaker 1: be a great topic for a show someday. There's a 740 00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:46,040 Speaker 1: documentary about it called Quiet Please. If you watch the trailer, 741 00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:48,080 Speaker 1: you might be inspired to watch it to learn what 742 00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:51,400 Speaker 1: the condition is huge, thanks to everyone and Stuff you 743 00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:53,680 Speaker 1: Should Know. You make a mundane parts of my life 744 00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:58,920 Speaker 1: interesting and educational. Uh, I'm gonna anonymize this from Texas 745 00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:02,359 Speaker 1: because I didn't. You're back from him from text. Yeah, 746 00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:06,160 Speaker 1: text PS was in disbelief when Chuck said he had 747 00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:10,600 Speaker 1: not seen Billy Madison or Happy Gilmore. That's a good PS. 748 00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:15,839 Speaker 1: I believe it. It's a good PostScript and post PPS right, 749 00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:18,680 Speaker 1: not p s S. I think his post PostScript. Yeah, 750 00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:22,640 Speaker 1: but people often put PSS. What doesn't mean? Do you 751 00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:25,560 Speaker 1: think Stuff you Should Know could ever become a television show? Well? 752 00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:29,120 Speaker 1: Text never we actually did that. We we found out 753 00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:31,040 Speaker 1: the hard way that it came. Yeah, we did a 754 00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:34,080 Speaker 1: TV show on the Science Channel and it ran for 755 00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:36,719 Speaker 1: one full season that played out over the course of 756 00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:40,080 Speaker 1: several days, which we will always have. Chu, we'll always 757 00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:43,080 Speaker 1: have that season television. We did once. It lasted nine 758 00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:45,640 Speaker 1: or ten days. Let's just show them all at once, 759 00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:51,160 Speaker 1: out of order. But you never know, we might get 760 00:43:51,360 --> 00:43:55,120 Speaker 1: another shot at stardom. But we're not looking to no. 761 00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:57,480 Speaker 1: I like it. In this room where no one's looking 762 00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:00,600 Speaker 1: at us. Jerry didn't even look at us. She's just 763 00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:05,680 Speaker 1: there looking away and discuss That's right, good idea about 764 00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:08,080 Speaker 1: the mesophonia. I think we mentioned that before, Like that 765 00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:10,880 Speaker 1: was I really like that vocal fry episode, And that 766 00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:12,799 Speaker 1: was the one thing that I wish we would have 767 00:44:13,000 --> 00:44:16,120 Speaker 1: mentioned because it's a legitimate thing that it does affect 768 00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:19,560 Speaker 1: some people. Um, but yeah, look for a mesophonia episode 769 00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:21,840 Speaker 1: at some point in the future. Text uh. If you 770 00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:23,120 Speaker 1: want to get in touch with us, if you can 771 00:44:23,120 --> 00:44:25,600 Speaker 1: send us an email to Stuff Podcasts at how Stuff 772 00:44:25,600 --> 00:44:27,879 Speaker 1: Works dot com and you can join us at our 773 00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:30,480 Speaker 1: very own home on the web, Stuff you Should Know 774 00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:35,360 Speaker 1: dot com. Stuff you Should Know is a production of 775 00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:38,680 Speaker 1: I Heart Radio. For more podcasts my Heart Radio, visit 776 00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:41,560 Speaker 1: the I heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you 777 00:44:41,600 --> 00:44:42,920 Speaker 1: listen to your favorite shows.