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Speaker 1: This episode is presented by Yahoo Fantasy.

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Speaker 2: The most valuable commodity I know of his information.

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Speaker 1: At five dollars. This is a rat up copy a

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Speaker 1: tackle Shiite. You're saying that humans need fantasy to make

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Speaker 1: life bearable.

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Speaker 2: Humans need fantasy to be.

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Speaker 3: My goodness, nice, prone, best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 2: All right, hit that horn?

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Speaker 3: Veriables, sirs?

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Speaker 1: What's the verybody? Welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast from

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Speaker 1: the Action Network and Fantasy Labs, presented by Yahoo Fantasy.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and I am joined by

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Speaker 1: my co host, one of the goat rankers, the goat

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Speaker 1: ranker in the game, fellow top six ranker over the

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Speaker 1: past three seasons in terms of accurate at Fantasy pros,

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Speaker 1: the odds maker Sean Kern or Sean. It's quarterbacks week.

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Speaker 1: What's going on?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Like this is a marker of like the seasons

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Speaker 3: rapidly approaching. We're finally getting to dive in to our

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Speaker 3: first position today, quarterbacks, and the Hall of Fame game

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Speaker 3: is just in a couple of days, so we're gonna

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Speaker 3: get to see some of these rookies, you know, with

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Speaker 3: pads on in game action.

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Speaker 2: So This is always an exciting time of year for

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Speaker 2: me personally.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mentioned this Quarterback Week for us. So

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Speaker 1: we're going to break down the top twelve quarterbacks on

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Speaker 1: this podcast for the twenty twenty five season. We'll go

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Speaker 1: by the current season on projections on Yahoo Fantasy. We'll

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Speaker 1: talk about who we're looking to back fade where the

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Speaker 1: value eyes with this group, then we'll do it. Our

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Speaker 1: next pod will be the QB two tier in anybody

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Speaker 1: that we like beyond that, and we'll also do another

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Speaker 1: pod where we go only on rookies. We'll do our

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Speaker 1: rookie draft again. So got a lot up ahead for

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Speaker 1: you in terms of quarterbacks. But before we get started,

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Speaker 1: if you're getting ready to dominate your fantasy football league,

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Speaker 1: why not use the same projections that we use? Well,

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Speaker 1: guess what you can our Fantasy Labs and the fl

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Speaker 1: subscription gives you access to our player rankings, customizable draft

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Speaker 1: cheat sheets, and more. New subscribers can use code flex

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Speaker 1: twenty that's FL e x two zero for twenty dollars

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Speaker 1: win your league. Use code Flex twenty twenty dollars off

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Speaker 1: at fantasylabs dot Com slash flex. All right, let's get

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Speaker 1: into our quarterbacks, the QB one tier. We'll start Lamar Jackson.

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Speaker 1: He goes off the board QB two, QB one depends.

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Speaker 1: It's been kind of flip flopping. Last year he was

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Speaker 1: the top overall quarterback in Fantasy. He's never had a

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Speaker 1: season lower than you know, QB ten in points per game.

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Speaker 1: He's always been there. It's just been some some years.

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Speaker 1: He's missed some games and that's kind of dinged him

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Speaker 1: a little bit. But Kerner forty one touchdowns, four picks

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Speaker 1: for Lamar Jackson, I don't I mean, I've been watching

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Speaker 1: football a long time. I don't know if I've seen

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Speaker 1: a better quarterback season and the guy didn't. The guy

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Speaker 1: couldn't even get the MVP. I think it's going under

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Speaker 1: talked about just how elite he was he is and

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Speaker 1: was last year, especially for a guy that when he

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Speaker 1: came into the league people kind of pigeonholed him as

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Speaker 1: a runner. So I'm you know, before I ask you

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Speaker 1: just where you're valuing him, I do want to ask you,

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Speaker 1: what is your touchdown intercept for ratio projection for this year?

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Speaker 1: For Lamar, I know you got some regression baked in there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, just incredible season last year, Like you said, four

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Speaker 3: thousand yards, forty one passing touchdowns and still you know,

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Speaker 3: he almost rushed for one thousand yards, so you know,

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Speaker 3: his ceiling was unlocked last year, whether it was due

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Speaker 3: to you know, offensive coordinator Todd Mounkin or having you know,

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Speaker 3: Derrick Henry back there, made it just impossible for defenses

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Speaker 3: to kind of you know, try to stop both. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I think we're going to see some regression obviously in

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Speaker 3: his touchdown interception ratio. I'm projecting him around twenty eight

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Speaker 3: and a half touchdowns with about you know, seven and

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Speaker 3: a half interception, so still you know, elite, still with

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Speaker 3: the massive rushing upside. So you know, I don't think

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Speaker 3: it's even possible for him to replicate last season. But

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Speaker 3: he's still going to be very, very good because everything's

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Speaker 3: of still in place here. He's still in his prime,

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Speaker 3: So I'm not expecting much regression for him this year though.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I have a pretty similar to you about twenty

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Speaker 1: nine to nine. He's my QB one. I think he's

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Speaker 1: just a little bit less fragile than a guy like

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen, who will get to next. But you know, Lamar,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned the rushing yardage is there, and I mean

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Speaker 1: he's surpassed Allen as a passer, you know last season.

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Speaker 1: I mean that was just ridiculous. And Allen, which let's

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Speaker 1: talk about him now. I think with Allen it's the

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Speaker 1: volume is the one thing that I wonder about because

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Speaker 1: you know, since Joe Brady took over, they've been a

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Speaker 1: run heavier team every year. Josh Allen has been a

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Speaker 1: top five quarterback since twenty twenty. But over that stretch,

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Speaker 1: you know, up until last year, you know, he was

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Speaker 1: averaging thirty four plus attempts per game every season, two

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty three plus passing yards per game every season,

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Speaker 1: and then last year he was at thirty points two

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Speaker 1: attempts per game. I'm not counting that Week eighteen game

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Speaker 1: where he just took a snap so that he could

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Speaker 1: keep his streak alive, but thirty point two attempts and

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Speaker 1: about two hundred and thirty three passing yards per game,

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Speaker 1: and he also, you know, just thirty three rushing yards

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Speaker 1: per game. That's a little bit wlow his career average

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Speaker 1: of thirty seven. So he's really living on rushing touchdowns

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Speaker 1: twelve and sixteen games and just ridiculous efficiency. Now what

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Speaker 1: do you think he lands for twenty twenty five? Is

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Speaker 1: there going to be some regression? Do you agree that

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Speaker 1: he's a bit there is a little bit more fragility there,

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Speaker 1: even though he's been so consistent over these past few years.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's definitely some fragility there because he has been

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Speaker 3: a little bit more dependent on the rushing touchdown department.

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Speaker 2: The past couple seasons.

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Speaker 3: He's had over ten rushing touchdowns, which really helped make

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Speaker 3: up for the Again, you alluded to it, he had

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Speaker 3: about six hundred fewer passing yards and we tip it

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Speaker 3: expect from him, So that was a pretty significant drop

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Speaker 3: and we kind of thought that might be the case

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Speaker 3: with you know, Joe Brady calling plays and they had

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Speaker 3: just you know, lost their top two targets since Stefan

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Speaker 3: Diggs and Gave Davis, so it was a much more

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Speaker 3: spread out passing attack. I think his pass catchers should

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Speaker 3: be better this year. You know, they they lost Amari

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Speaker 3: Cooper who didn't really make an impact there and Matt Collins,

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Speaker 3: but they brought in you know, Josh Palmer, who I

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Speaker 3: love and even Elijah Moore who could step up. And

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Speaker 3: I think, you know, Keon Coleman could be better in

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Speaker 3: season two, so I think his pass catchers should be

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Speaker 3: better this year. But yeah, I don't know if we

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Speaker 3: could expect forty three hundred passing arts from him, you know,

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Speaker 3: going forward. So he's going to have to rely on

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Speaker 3: his rushing volume, which I think will still be there,

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Speaker 3: but more importantly the rushing touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: So it does, you know, worry me a little bit.

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Speaker 2: But again, he's finished.

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Speaker 3: Top two each of the last five seasons, so he's

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Speaker 3: been a year in, year out, so it's really you know,

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Speaker 3: him and Lamar sort of in their tier.

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Speaker 2: Alone for me.

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Speaker 3: And I think when it comes to quarterbacks, I we

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Speaker 3: can talk about this, but I typically like to wait

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Speaker 3: at quarterback. But if if you are going to draft,

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Speaker 3: you know, whether it's Allen or Lamar, I like to

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Speaker 3: just let the league decide which quarterback comes off the

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Speaker 3: board first, and then if I've been a good spot,

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Speaker 3: I can just get the guy that didn't go first.

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Speaker 3: So that's that's how close I am on these two

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Speaker 3: guys where I think, yeah, Lamar number one makes sense,

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Speaker 3: and then Josh Allen number two. But if you are

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Speaker 3: going to take one of these guys, I let somebody

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Speaker 3: decide who goes off first and then scoop up the

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Speaker 3: other guy a few picks later.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I think I think I want more

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Speaker 1: Lamar than Josh this year. I think I do see

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Speaker 1: some downside with Josh where it's kind of not really

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Speaker 1: being baked in, just because with the current Croppers, I mean,

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Speaker 1: we thought Amari Cooper was going to be a lot

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Speaker 1: better than he was last year's. It's like, guys go

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Speaker 1: to this team to die because they want to spread

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Speaker 1: the ball around. Josh Allen's a great runner, they could

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Speaker 1: get their backs involved in the past game and the

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Speaker 1: run game, and I just I just thought that they

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Speaker 1: really started to rely even more on the run game

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Speaker 1: down the stretch last year, and that was kind of telling. So,

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Speaker 1: you know, with most of Josh Allen's heavy, heavy pass

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Speaker 1: volume coming in those games, those few shootout games, their

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Speaker 1: schedule is not too tough this year. So I do think,

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Speaker 1: you know, with Lamar just putting up such a ridiculous season,

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, we shouldn't ignore that and say,

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Speaker 1: like these guys are super close. I think Lamar is

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Speaker 1: probably more likely to miss games. But if you're just

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Speaker 1: talking about like a pure per game average upside, if

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Speaker 1: they both play all, you know, sixteen regular season fantasy games,

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Speaker 1: I do think Lamar does have some subparation at this point,

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Speaker 1: just based on how well he played last year and

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Speaker 1: what they're doing, you know, volumeiz in Buffalo. Speaking of volume,

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Speaker 1: j Daniels wasn't a particularly high volume passer, but did

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Speaker 1: run the ball a ton almost one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: carries just under nine hundred rushing yards last year. He's

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Speaker 1: going off the board as the QB three around twenty

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Speaker 1: seventh overall, so he's he's already entered this elite tier

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Speaker 1: of quarterbacks and even jump Jalen Hurts, which I do

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Speaker 1: think is fair Kerner. I'll start by asking you this.

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Speaker 1: I think it's interesting that Daniels, you know, he's very

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Speaker 1: efficient as a passer last year, but his passing yards

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Speaker 1: per game was just under two hundred and ten. Is

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Speaker 1: that something that you see increasing and if so, how much?

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Speaker 1: I know there are kind of some question marks there

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Speaker 1: at receiver right now. And where are you valuing Daniels

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Speaker 1: heading into year two?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I definitely am bumping his passing yards per game

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Speaker 3: a bit. I have it closer to like two twenty.

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Speaker 3: You know, he's entering year two, so I think that's

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Speaker 3: probably where he's gonna get better, is the pass department.

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Speaker 3: Maybe he'll rely on scrambling a bit less, not much though,

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Speaker 3: like that is a significant part of his game. But

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Speaker 3: you know, I just I was really impressed with him.

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Speaker 3: I love that he does, you know, the virtual reality

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Speaker 3: training to sort of speed up his you know, on

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Speaker 3: field decision making. Like, I think he's gonna have a

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Speaker 3: great career. I think adding Deebo Samuel is the interesting thing.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying to see, you know, how he looks in

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Speaker 3: camp because he's so good, you know, after the catch,

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Speaker 3: but last year he was not, and I think that

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Speaker 3: could have been due to, you know, he's getting older.

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Speaker 3: But remember he dealt with like a severe bout of

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Speaker 3: pneumonia mid season.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if that impacted him a ton.

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Speaker 3: But like Deebo could be huge for you know, Jaden

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Speaker 3: getting you know, ten plus more yards of game. So

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Speaker 3: that's I'm kind of factoring that in. You know, we

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Speaker 3: have Terry McLaurin with this contract situation. Hopefully that gets

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Speaker 3: resolved soon. You know, if that spills into the right

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Speaker 3: regular season, that's going to be a hit on Jade

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Speaker 3: Daniels in terms of his passing production.

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Speaker 2: Plus the other thing.

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Speaker 3: The other thing that I kind of use his context

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Speaker 3: with Jane Daniels rookie season is, you know, he was

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Speaker 3: knocked out of that Week seven game with the rib injury.

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Speaker 3: He was expected to miss some games, and he played

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Speaker 3: through it. He was a bit inconsistent for a few

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Speaker 3: games after that, so you know, I kind of factor

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Speaker 3: that in as well, that you know, he could have

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Speaker 3: been even better if he didn't get that, you know,

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Speaker 3: pretty significant rib injury. So a lot of things going

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Speaker 3: out with Jade Daniels where I think he could be

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Speaker 3: even better this year. So, like I said, I'm bumping

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Speaker 3: up his passing yards per game closer to two twenty,

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Speaker 3: just giving his his supporting cast might be even better

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Speaker 3: this year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's tough with him because he's I think

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Speaker 1: he got better as the year progressed too. Last year.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned the processing, and I just thought by the

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Speaker 1: end of the year he was just such an expert

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Speaker 1: at you know, knowing when to scramble, knowing how to

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Speaker 1: keep him ahead of the chains, and at the same time,

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Speaker 1: it's like almost how much better can his season? Like,

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Speaker 1: how much better can he be? I mean, he was

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Speaker 1: just so efficient last year. Uh he was you know,

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Speaker 1: Terry McLaurin stayed healthy for the entire year. I felt

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Speaker 1: like he he had He got really good seasons out

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Speaker 1: of some of the other guys too, like Zakias and

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Speaker 1: uh and Diami Brown. I mean, Diami Brown got himself

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Speaker 1: a nice little, you know, ten year, ten million dollar

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Speaker 1: prove it deal contract off off Daniel so and then

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Speaker 1: zach Ertz was healthy somehow those season two. So there's

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Speaker 1: like a lot of competing things where I I do

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Speaker 1: have him rank QB three. I don't mind uh kind

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Speaker 1: of waiting for Jalen Hurts. You know, if if Daniels

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Speaker 1: goes ahead, like I I there's that's one where I

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Speaker 1: think there's a little more there's not as much separation there.

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Speaker 1: So if Daniels is gonna go you know well before him,

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Speaker 1: or even you know, just before. And I'm looking for

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Speaker 1: a quarterback in that range, which I'm generally not. But

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Speaker 1: I think the your weak size, the easier it is

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Speaker 1: to still get it. Like if you're in a ten

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Speaker 1: team league, I think it's easier to kind of get

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Speaker 1: a quarterback early and still you know, fill out your

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Speaker 1: roster with all that, with a glut of frozen pond

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Speaker 1: tier running backs that are still going to be available

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Speaker 1: later on and whatnot. But what are you doing with

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Speaker 1: quarterback in general? Like, are you going for the elite

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks in this in twenty twenty five more often than not?

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Speaker 1: Or do you find yourself waiting? Are you more of

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Speaker 1: a mid tier year for you? What are you doing general?

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Speaker 1: More generally?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I'm writing up my QB tiers piece today actually,

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Speaker 3: and I've you know, if I broke it down, it

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Speaker 3: depends on the league type.

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Speaker 2: We should probably talk about that.

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Speaker 3: Like if you're in a two QB super flex format,

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Speaker 3: quarterback value shoots way up where you see quarterbacks going

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Speaker 3: in like the first round. So again it depends on

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Speaker 3: your format. But traditional, you know, head to head season

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Speaker 3: long formats one quarterback, I'm still late round quarterback where

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Speaker 3: I'm okay sort of punting it and then taking a

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Speaker 3: flyer on, you know, like a you know, a Ka

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Speaker 3: Williams or Trevor Lawrence or JJ McCarthy type, just because

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Speaker 3: you have that safety net of the waiver wire streaming

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Speaker 3: quarterback and eventually, you know, ending up with the top

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Speaker 3: ten quarterback like bo Nix was a good example last

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Speaker 3: year of a guy that you know, I didn't draft him,

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Speaker 3: but in one of my leagues I just ended up

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Speaker 3: with him going forward. So there's a lot more options

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Speaker 3: if you punt quarterback. But I'm not opposed to taking

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Speaker 3: elite quarterback early. I'd say probably from the top five.

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Speaker 3: Once the top five are gone, I'm usually passing that quarterback.

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Speaker 3: But if you get a top five quarterback and you

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Speaker 3: know you're you're comfortable with your wide receivers running backs

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Speaker 3: at that time, you're more than capable of, you know,

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Speaker 3: constructing a league winning team that way. I just typically

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Speaker 3: have better luck and just uh my skill of just

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Speaker 3: taking guys early on and handling the waiver wire allows

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Speaker 3: me to punt at quarterback. But it's one of those

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Speaker 3: things where you just have to know your strengths and

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Speaker 3: weaknesses in your league in general, but you can you

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Speaker 3: can win your league with either approach, really, but I

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Speaker 3: would say the quarterbacks, like five through ten is probably

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Speaker 3: the dead zone for me when it comes to most

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Speaker 3: of my drafts.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't mind waiting on quarterback because they you know,

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Speaker 1: it does kind of drop off too where there are

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Speaker 1: just so many quarterbacks available with and there's there's not

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Speaker 1: that much differentiation. So yeah, there's there's certain weeks where again,

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Speaker 1: if it's like a ten teamer, and I think I

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Speaker 1: can get you know, my starting running backs and wide

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Speaker 1: receivers and and my flex and you know, my running

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Speaker 1: back two spot is probably going to be like one

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Speaker 1: of the just interchangeable with a bunch of those like

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Speaker 1: frozen pond guys. I don't mind in certain spots, you know,

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Speaker 1: going for a quarterback if they fall about I'm not

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Speaker 1: I'm never taking a quarterback ahead of ADP or anything

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Speaker 1: like that early. But if they drop, you know, especially

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Speaker 1: if they drop you know six overall spots or more,

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Speaker 1: you know into essentially you know, into that next round. Uh,

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Speaker 1: that's what I'm really kind of looking for quarterbacks. But

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Speaker 1: I really don't want to take a quarterback in a

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Speaker 1: second or even you know even really the third round.

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Speaker 1: But if these second round guys are falling into the

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Speaker 1: third round, especially eight third round, or the third round

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Speaker 1: guys are falling into the fourth, that's when I feel.

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Speaker 2: A lot better. Yeah about them like, yeah, I'd say.

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Speaker 3: The way I put it is, I kind of let

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Speaker 3: the position come to me, like like you said, never

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Speaker 3: really want to take them ahead of ADP. But if

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Speaker 3: they fall and I'm in a good spot, that's that's

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Speaker 3: when I'll be taking a quarterback earlier in the draft.

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Speaker 1: All right, Jalen Hurts is fourth. He is fourth by

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Speaker 1: ADP as well, going around thirty second role. He was

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Speaker 1: top six in points per game last season, and Sean,

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Speaker 1: I think the interesting thing with Hurts is potential upward

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Speaker 1: volume regression because if you look at his past attempts

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Speaker 1: per game over the past four seasons, you know, since

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Speaker 1: Nick Sirianni came on board as the head coach in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, it was twenty nine attempts per game,

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Speaker 1: then thirty one and twenty twenty two, thirty two attempts

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Speaker 1: per game in twenty twenty three, and he dropped to

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Speaker 1: twenty four point one last year, and the yardage kind

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Speaker 1: of followed suit. He went from ten to forty seven

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Speaker 1: to twenty seven to just one ninety three and a

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Speaker 1: half last season. So do you think that he bounces back,

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Speaker 1: because I mean it's hard for a quarterback to go

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Speaker 1: two straight years averaging twenty four attempts and under two

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Speaker 1: hundred yards per game, unless there was this guy justin

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Speaker 1: fields or something. But it hurts a lot better than that. So, uh,

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Speaker 1: what do you see for hurts this year?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I definitely have some positive regression there have

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Speaker 3: it closer like twenty seven and half because you know,

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Speaker 3: part part of the reason eating did attempt many passes

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Speaker 3: is because you know, Saquon Barkley was just so freaking good.

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Speaker 3: He ran forver two thousand yards, had a handful of

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Speaker 3: sixty plus yard touchdowns, So that takes away from hurts.

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Speaker 3: You know, it kills an entire drive, it gives the

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Speaker 3: Eagles the lead, it puts them in a more run

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Speaker 3: heavy situation. Plus their defense was great last year and

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Speaker 3: both are true heading into this year. So I still

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Speaker 3: think this is gonna be obviously an extreme run heavy offense.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I still have it closer to twenty seven

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Speaker 3: and a half pass a pass attempts per game.

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Speaker 2: Plus you know there was you know, a J.

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Speaker 3: Brown, DeVante Smith, Dallas Goddard. We're all hurt at different times.

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Speaker 3: They've only they only played seventy nine snaps together all season,

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Speaker 3: so that's that's a lot of time without his top

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Speaker 3: three pass catchers, which also hurt you know, his his

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Speaker 3: passing production and passing rate and things like that. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I'm expecting Hurts to bounce back throwing the ball. And

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Speaker 3: you know, we got to say that the Toush push

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Speaker 3: ban failed, which means we will get to see potentially

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Speaker 3: another season of double digit rushing touchdowns for Hurts.

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Speaker 2: You know, that's something going forward.

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Speaker 3: If they were to ban the Toush push, you know,

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Speaker 3: it'd probably be a big hit for his his rushing

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Speaker 3: touch on upside, But they didn't ban it this year,

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Speaker 3: So I'm projecting him for you know, eleven to twelve

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Speaker 3: rushing touchdowns this year, so he has a nice ceiling

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Speaker 3: or you know, rushing floor there. But yeah, I have

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Speaker 3: you know, his passing yards way up around thirty two

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Speaker 3: hundred this year in about twenty seven and a half

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Speaker 3: attempts per game. So I'm with you in that the

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Speaker 3: passing production itself should see some positive aggression this year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and remember Saquon bark We had nearly five hundred

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Speaker 1: touches between the regular and plate postseason. If Saquon goes

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Speaker 1: down for a you know, kind of the same amount

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Speaker 1: of time that some of those pass catchers went down

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Speaker 1: for last year when we were talking about a guy

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Speaker 1: in Hurts whose career highs over a season are two

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Speaker 1: hundred and forty seven yards per game thirty two attempts.

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Speaker 1: I mean that it would be a significant increase. And

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Speaker 1: that happened, you know, those happened over the last couple

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Speaker 1: of years, thirty one and thirty two attempts per game

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Speaker 1: the two seasons before, so he could see a big jump,

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Speaker 1: you know, whether it's due to efficiency, whether it's due

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Speaker 1: to natural game scripts, whether it's due to more injuries

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Speaker 1: at the running back position. But I think he's he's

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Speaker 1: like teetering on that like massive value, like he might be.

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Speaker 1: He probably has the most room to grow out of

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Speaker 1: all these elite quarterbacks in terms of where he's being

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Speaker 1: taken relative to his ceiling. Because if he puts up

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Speaker 1: those passing numbers and he's still getting touch push, you know,

400
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Speaker 1: touchdowns in the red zone. I mean, he's got that

401
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Speaker 1: QB one overall upside, and he could even run away

402
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Speaker 1: with it. If you know, Josh Allen sees some regression

403
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 1: touchdowns or La margets hurt or something like that. So yeah,

404
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Speaker 1: I do like Hurts that where he's going, you know,

405
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Speaker 1: I do have him like he does grade out or

406
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Speaker 1: project out. I should say my QB four, but I

407
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Speaker 1: think just comparing his his ceiling to where he's going

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Speaker 1: and the value at QB four, he has that QB

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Speaker 1: one overall ceiling, So it Hurts. Probably my favorite of

410
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Speaker 1: those A week guys right now. Joe Burrow next up

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Speaker 1: at number five, going fifth off the board, around thirty

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Speaker 1: ninth overall. It was the top two quarterback last year

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Speaker 1: four nine and eighteen passing yards, forty three touchdowns, nine picks.

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Speaker 1: He's been near the top of the league in attempts

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Speaker 1: over the last three years, so that's kept him afloat

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Speaker 1: that defense hasn't been great, So Sean, I guess the

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Speaker 1: question is with Burrow, it's kind of the opposite of Hurts.

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Speaker 1: It's like, how close to was that his ceiling last year?

419
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Speaker 1: I mean nearly five thousand yards and forty three touchdown.

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Speaker 1: We're kind of banking on that for him to be

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Speaker 1: a top five quarterback because at you know, he's had

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Speaker 1: some years where whether he's gotten hurt or the efficiency

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Speaker 1: just hasn't been there. He's been all over the map

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Speaker 1: in terms of his his finishes. He hasn't been quite

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Speaker 1: as consistent, and it's because he doesn't have that rushing episode.

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Speaker 1: So how are you treating him this season?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's an important distinction because he is he's

428
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Speaker 3: the first, you know, true pocket passer that's being drafted,

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Speaker 3: so he's he's going to be dependent on some certain things.

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Speaker 3: But I think in Burrows case, he still has you know,

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Speaker 3: the same upside as we saw last year, because I mean,

432
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:41,399
Speaker 3: first of all, the Bengals just throw a ton. They

433
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 3: led the NFL with twelve percent passway overexpected, nearly double

434
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:48,879
Speaker 3: the next closest team in the Chiefs. So they are

435
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 3: a pass first offense. That's going to remain true this year.

436
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 3: In the second, which I think is very important, is

437
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 3: you know, their defense was awful. They allowed the seventh

438
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 3: most points per game. That's outside of his control, but

439
00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:05,000
Speaker 3: they should still be below average this year. And you know,

440
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 3: who knows what's going on with Trade and Hendrickson. I

441
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 3: if his hold up spills in the season, they're going

442
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 3: to be even worse. So I think, you know, his

443
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,159
Speaker 3: defense is going to provide him with pass heavy game

444
00:24:15,240 --> 00:24:19,400
Speaker 3: scripts still and third, he still has arguably the best

445
00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 3: wide receiver duo in the league and Jamar Chase and

446
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 3: t Higgins and Higgins missed, you know, a handful of

447
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,440
Speaker 3: games last season, So if you look at just the

448
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:31,159
Speaker 3: games were Chase and Higgins both played, you know, he

449
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:34,320
Speaker 3: averaged twenty four point one points per game, which should

450
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 3: would have ranked second on the season. So I think

451
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 3: despite he probably had like a ceiling season last year,

452
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 3: if you look at it, you know, he was missing

453
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 3: one of his top receivers for a handful of games.

454
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 3: He was dealing with that wrist injury. I guess he

455
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,200
Speaker 3: sort of is the rest of his career. It could

456
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,120
Speaker 3: be like a chronic thing, but he overcame a couple

457
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 3: of things last year that might not be there this year.

458
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think Burrow's the exception. Usually pocket passers,

459
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,199
Speaker 3: you know you're gonna see more regression year to year,

460
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,200
Speaker 3: But I think in Burrow's case, he has proven to

461
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:10,880
Speaker 3: be the exception because again, this team relies on him.

462
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 3: The defense should still be pretty bad this year, so

463
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 3: I think we're gonna see a lot of the same

464
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 3: factors that led to his great season last year. So

465
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 3: he's my QB five, and like I said, I think

466
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 3: once he's off the board, it's you know, I'm more

467
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 3: willing to wait at the position. But I think he's

468
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 3: he's going to be a high floor, high ceiling option

469
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 3: again this year.

470
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,639
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's a guy I think that. Like you mentioned

471
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,120
Speaker 1: the dead zone and starts around QB five, I think

472
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,159
Speaker 1: I think he's he's a guy I want, like I

473
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,720
Speaker 1: tend to shy away from, just because I do think

474
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:45,679
Speaker 1: his floor is lower than the other four, the other

475
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 1: guys in the top four, just because of you know,

476
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:49,959
Speaker 1: his lack of rushing upside, because if you look at

477
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 1: his prior three seasons, Yeah, he had forty six hundred

478
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,239
Speaker 1: yards and thirty four touchdowns in twenty twenty one. Then

479
00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 1: he had about forty five hundred yards and thirty five scores,

480
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:06,440
Speaker 1: so very consistent the next year. But then in twenty

481
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:10,800
Speaker 1: twenty three he got hurt. He had just two thousand,

482
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,159
Speaker 1: three hundred and nine yards in ten games. So it

483
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: did decrease, and his his efficiency was also way down

484
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,920
Speaker 1: as well. But you look at his other two best

485
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 1: seasons out like before last year, and he topped out,

486
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 1: you know, in the in the mid four thousands with

487
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 1: about in the mid thirties and touchdowns, So I do

488
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 1: tend to think that he could see some regression. And

489
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:34,440
Speaker 1: with defenses, they tend to regress to the mean, whether

490
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 1: bad or good. So that's like, I don't want to

491
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:40,120
Speaker 1: count on his defense being terrible, even though I think

492
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 1: it probably will be. So I just see some you know,

493
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 1: there's there's just a little bit less wiggle room for

494
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 1: him than you know, these other guys who are just

495
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:54,120
Speaker 1: running so much that if their passing numbers to take

496
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 1: a hit, it's probably because their rushing numbers are going up,

497
00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 1: Whereas with Burrow there's just kind of more room to

498
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 1: you know, maybe the Bengals do get better, maybe the

499
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,639
Speaker 1: defense gets better, maybe they do finally run more, you know,

500
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:07,639
Speaker 1: maybe you know, there's just a lot more things that

501
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:09,960
Speaker 1: I think could bring him down a little bit lower

502
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 1: than what he was last year, and that that does

503
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 1: like significantly ding his value when you're talking about taking

504
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 1: him inside the top fifty Fantasy Flex listeners. Chris Raybond here,

505
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 1: if you have ever wanted to hang out with me

506
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 1: and the odds maker Sean Kerner in person, here's your chance.

507
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 1: We've got a live Fantasy Flex event presented by Yahoo Fantasy,

508
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 1: happening on August twenty third at Joe's Bar on Weed

509
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 1: Street in Chicago. It's totally free. You just need to

510
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 1: rs VP to save your spot. And like I said,

511
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:43,359
Speaker 1: I'll be there. Kerner will be there. We'll have some

512
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,879
Speaker 1: other special guests that you might know as well. So

513
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,360
Speaker 1: if you're in the Chicago area or you're gonna make

514
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 1: it to the Chicago area because you know your guys

515
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 1: Kerner and Raybon are gonna be there, then be there

516
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 1: on August twenty third. It's Joe's on Street. You just

517
00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:04,440
Speaker 1: need to Ara's VP. It's gonna be lit. We're gonna

518
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 1: do a live draft and graded we're going to watch

519
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:10,920
Speaker 1: some games, So just be sure to follow the link

520
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:14,120
Speaker 1: in the episode description for more details and the ras

521
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 1: VP to the Fantasy Flex live event Saturday, August twenty third,

522
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:22,399
Speaker 1: presented by Yahoo Fantasy. Another guy is kind of like

523
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 1: that Baker Mayfield number six. He goes QB seven and

524
00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 1: ADP Mahomes does go ahead of him or starting to

525
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:33,400
Speaker 1: go ahead of him. Last season he posted a top

526
00:28:33,440 --> 00:28:36,240
Speaker 1: three Fantasy season. He was just him and that whole

527
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:41,360
Speaker 1: Bucks offense just absolutely magnificent. But another guy. I think

528
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 1: there is a case for aggression. You do have Liam Cohne,

529
00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 1: who took that Bucks team from twenty and a half

530
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 1: points per game to twenty nine and a half last season.

531
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 1: Now he's gone after his only season there. He's coaching Jacksonville.

532
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 1: And you look at Baker last year two hundred and

533
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 1: sixty five passing yards per game. He hadn't been over

534
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:03,240
Speaker 1: to forty since his rookie year two point four passing

535
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 1: touchdowns per game. His previous career high was one point

536
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 1: nine as a rookie, and then twenty two rushing yards

537
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 1: per game. His previous high was ten. So I mean,

538
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 1: he was probably gonna regress naturally, but the fact that

539
00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 1: Cone's gone makes me a little bit more weary, especially

540
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 1: because the rushing production hasn't been consistent. But you know,

541
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 1: what do you think is kind of more like more

542
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 1: or less likely to hold up? You know, in terms

543
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:32,239
Speaker 1: of what he did last year, what do you think

544
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 1: is most likely to regress and where do you think

545
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 1: that puts him? You know, Evans thirty two as well,

546
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 1: Godwin's coming off an out of injuries, so a lot

547
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 1: of kind of competing factors with Mayfield.

548
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:45,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think, you know, with Burrow, I'm pretty confident.

549
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,760
Speaker 3: You know, both these quarterbacks are going to see some regression.

550
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 3: I don't think they can match last year's numbers, But

551
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:54,600
Speaker 3: I'm way more concerned about Baker being able to match

552
00:29:54,720 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 3: last year's numbers because this is just a clear career

553
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 3: year for him. I mean, if you describe last year, yeah,

554
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 3: he was phenomenal. He finishes the QB five, set career

555
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 3: highs in pretty much every single stat even you know

556
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 3: his rushing stats as well, nearly four hundred yards, three touchdowns.

557
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 3: It's just going to be extremely tough for him to

558
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 3: repeat that, no matter how good he was last year.

559
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 3: And like you said, he's going to have a new

560
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 3: offensive coordinator this year, third one in three years, so

561
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 3: you know that could hurt him as well. Mike Evans

562
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 3: is getting older. Chris Godwin might not be ready for

563
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 3: Week one, although I do love the depth they have

564
00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 3: by you know, Draftingbuka in the first round kind of

565
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 3: helps raise his floor there. But this is just a

566
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 3: spot where I'm not even ranking Banker that much lower.

567
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 3: I have him QB seven. It's not like I'm expecting

568
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 3: a huge drop off, but he is not somebody that

569
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:52,719
Speaker 3: I'm looking a draft. You're just you're spending way too

570
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 3: much draft capital on a situation where his floor could be,

571
00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,719
Speaker 3: you know, outside of the top twelve. It's not unrealistic.

572
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield could all of a sudden become you know,

573
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,959
Speaker 3: like a QB fifteen type of guy, depending on what happens.

574
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 3: So there's just way too much risk here where you know,

575
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 3: you can get you know, a quarterback much much later

576
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 3: on with just as much upside. So he's he's the

577
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 3: first quarterback where I'm really not drafting, even though I'm

578
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 3: not raking him that much lower. It's just this part

579
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 3: of the draft. I'm still trying to grab running backs,

580
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 3: wide receivers or tight ends. But this doesn't mean that,

581
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 3: you know, I'm not investing in this offense as a whole.

582
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 3: I still like Buck Irving, Mike Evans, and some spots,

583
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 3: Buka the rookie taking some flyers on him. It's just

584
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:41,959
Speaker 3: Baker Mayfield. They're just there's so much risk taking him

585
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 3: here at QB six that I'm usually not taking that gamble.

586
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, i mean, when we talk about the QB one

587
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 1: tier as a whole, we're gonna talk about twelve guys,

588
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 1: and there's gonna and we're talking about guys who are going,

589
00:31:56,320 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 1: you know, at the near the top of their position.

590
00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 1: So more of these guys are probably gonna be lower finished,

591
00:32:01,720 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 1: lower than their ADPs here, and I think you gotta

592
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 1: have kind of fade some of them. I think Baker

593
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: makes sense to fade at this point, just based on

594
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 1: where he's going. I think you want to get in on,

595
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 1: you know, the next guy like that. You know, maybe

596
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 1: it's Trevor Lawrence, maybe it's a guy like Jordan Love,

597
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 1: but you know, I just I don't see any upside

598
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:27,640
Speaker 1: to take in pocket passers in the middle of the draft.

599
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 1: I think that's especially true this year where the market

600
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 1: has gotten a little bit sharper in terms of, you know,

601
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 1: how they're treating wide receivers versus running backs. Where after

602
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 1: the you know, kind of the top tier of running

603
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 1: backs go, it's kind of an arms race with wide receivers,

604
00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:47,320
Speaker 1: and you know, those guys are just hard to replace.

605
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 1: You talk about it every year, how you're not really

606
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 1: going to find a top target, a number one target,

607
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 1: even sometimes the number two guy way down in the draft.

608
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 1: So those guys are going and it's just tough to

609
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 1: draft a quarterback when there's so much supply versus you know,

610
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 1: wide receivers and or and running backs for that matter,

611
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 1: where Baker's going. So yeah, don't don't don't love Baker,

612
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:16,320
Speaker 1: but hopefully hoping he does well because he is a

613
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 1: fun guy to watch. Happy for him, but yeah, he's

614
00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 1: him and Burrow, those pocket guys, just those are the

615
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 1: guys I'm gonna fade. All Right, We're halfway through the

616
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:30,800
Speaker 1: top twelve, so let's do a segment presented by Yahoo

617
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 1: Fantasy looking at risers and faller Sean. So far we've

618
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 1: discussed Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow,

619
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:45,560
Speaker 1: and Baker Mayfield. So looking at those top six, who

620
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 1: sticks out is the biggest riser this year and who's

621
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 1: missing from last season as the biggest faller.

622
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the biggest riser this year is clearly Jade

623
00:33:57,040 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 3: and Daniels, who was being drafted around QB fourteen last

624
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 3: year as a rookie, but after that phenomenal rookie season,

625
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 3: he's now being drafted as a QB three, So he

626
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:11,320
Speaker 3: is the clear biggest riser. The two biggest followers I

627
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 3: would say would be CJ. Stroud coming off that amazing

628
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:19,279
Speaker 3: rookie season, was going as a QB five he's now

629
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:23,239
Speaker 3: going off the board as rather the QB eighteen. And

630
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 3: Dak Prescott similarly was being drafted QB six last year

631
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 3: and is now going around QB fourteen. So those two

632
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:33,399
Speaker 3: guys would be the biggest followers for sure.

633
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:36,920
Speaker 1: What do you know, pocket passers? So back's up what

634
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 1: we talked about with Borrow and Mayfield. But those are

635
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 1: your Yahoo Fantasy quarterback risers and fallers. We'll get to

636
00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:49,360
Speaker 1: those followers here coming up. As a reminder, this episode

637
00:34:49,680 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 1: is presented by Yahoo Fantasy and Fantasy football is back,

638
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 1: So fire up the group chat, get those draft boards ready,

639
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 1: buckle up for a season. Field would breakout bus over

640
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 1: reactions and more. It's all happening, and this year Sean

641
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:07,319
Speaker 1: and I are playing on Yahoo Fantasy and you should too.

642
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 1: So whether you're a first timer or a veteran making

643
00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 1: your million the league, now is the time to get hype.

644
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 1: We love everything they're doing over at Yahoo Fantasy, especially

645
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 1: the user interface and those post draft report cards. We're

646
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 1: super excited to check out all the innovative features they're

647
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 1: gonna be rowing out this year, and to celebrate twenty

648
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:32,440
Speaker 1: eight years of fantasy greatness, Yaho Fantasy is dropping twenty

649
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:36,120
Speaker 1: eight big new features over twenty eight days, giving you

650
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:39,839
Speaker 1: more ways to play, more ways to draft, and more

651
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 1: ways to win. It all begins August fourth, So stay

652
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 1: tuned and get started by creating or joining a Yahoo

653
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 1: Fantasy football league today at Yahoo Fantasy dot com slash flex.

654
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: That's Yahoo Fantasy dot Com slash flex all right, number

655
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:03,880
Speaker 1: seven and is Patrick Mahomes goes off the board around

656
00:36:04,000 --> 00:36:06,800
Speaker 1: two B six. Now he's him and Baker Mayfield have

657
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 1: started to flip flop. So Mahomes just outside the top fifty.

658
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 1: Was in the ADB of fifty second overall at Yahoo,

659
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 1: and last season he was down outside the top ten

660
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 1: around TB eleven thirteens. In points per game, he was

661
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 1: under four thousand yards, twenty six passing touchdowns, eleven picks,

662
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 1: just over three hundred rushing yards. But sean his passing

663
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 1: yardage in twenty twenty two is threeh nine per game

664
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three to sixty one, and last year two

665
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 1: forty five and a half his yards pert ten likewise

666
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 1: went from eight point one to seven point zero to

667
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 1: six point eight. So do you see some positive upward

668
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 1: trajectory yet again for Mahomes now that he should have

669
00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 1: relatively healthy she Rice, David Worthy, Marquis Brown receiving corps.

670
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 1: But at the same time, you got a thirty six

671
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 1: year old Chelsea. You don't know exactly what you're getting

672
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 1: out of the receiving game. In the backfield. You know,

673
00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:14,600
Speaker 1: bshard Smith the rookie, he can he can do some

674
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:17,239
Speaker 1: things in the past game, but if it's Pacheco or

675
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 1: a guy like Hunt or Mitchell, probably not as much.

676
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 1: So what are you doing with Mahomes? Do you do

677
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:24,759
Speaker 1: you see him kind of getting back to where he

678
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:25,919
Speaker 1: was or it's more of the same.

679
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:29,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I don't have him getting back to you know,

680
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:32,319
Speaker 3: the three hundred passing yards per game from a few

681
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 3: seasons ago, but I do have him bouncing back to

682
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:39,080
Speaker 3: like twenty twenty three levels around two sixty two sixty

683
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:42,680
Speaker 3: five yards per game, not you know, the two forty

684
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 3: five last year where I think that that might be

685
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:48,680
Speaker 3: his floor at this point. But I think we could

686
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 3: see more explosive plays with Xavier Worthy and near two

687
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,319
Speaker 3: a full season of Hollywood Brown, I think would give him,

688
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 3: you know, a deep threat. But like you said, he

689
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:02,319
Speaker 3: does have Travis Kelce in decline, which you know has

690
00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:04,759
Speaker 3: been his top target throughout his career, So I think

691
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 3: that that kind of hurts his upside. Of tad with

692
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:10,719
Speaker 3: Rashi Rice, it's kind of unclear if he's gonna get

693
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 3: suspended or not. You know, if if he doesn't, I

694
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 3: think that's gonna be massive. That's just another you know,

695
00:38:16,560 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 3: weapon for Mahomes to have. But at the end of

696
00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 3: the day, just this offense just isn't as explosive these days.

697
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 3: They're much more willing to be more methodical and just

698
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 3: you know, have these long sustaining drives which can kill

699
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 3: some clock, and he just doesn't have the same upside.

700
00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 3: But you know, he's still my QB seven because I

701
00:38:36,960 --> 00:38:40,800
Speaker 3: am expecting you know, a bounce back this year. But again,

702
00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:44,440
Speaker 3: he doesn't have the same rushing upside or really the

703
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:47,319
Speaker 3: same passing upside as like a Burrow or maybe even

704
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:49,839
Speaker 3: a Baker at this point in his career. So he's

705
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:52,360
Speaker 3: still firmly you know, outside of that elite tier for

706
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:55,760
Speaker 3: me now, despite you know, being arguably the best quarterback

707
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 3: in the league. Just in terms of fantasy, he just

708
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 3: doesn't have the same upside that you saw a few

709
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:01,640
Speaker 3: years ago in this offense.

710
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:05,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I actually have him ahead of Baker

711
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 1: right now at QB six because you know my model,

712
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 1: I do, you know, it does kind of learn from

713
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:15,360
Speaker 1: a quarterbacks past history, like his career, not just you know,

714
00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:19,080
Speaker 1: everything's not just based solely on on last year. And

715
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:22,760
Speaker 1: the same thing for Baker and uh and and Burrow

716
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:24,879
Speaker 1: that we talked about earlier. So they you know, these

717
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 1: guys are all very close. But I am you know,

718
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:30,520
Speaker 1: even if she Rice gets suspended, he's probably playing more

719
00:39:30,560 --> 00:39:34,280
Speaker 1: than the four games that he played last year. Marquise

720
00:39:34,360 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 1: Brown is probably playing more than the two games and

721
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 1: minimal snaps that he played last year. And I think

722
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:45,440
Speaker 1: as targets go away from Kelsey, I mean tight end

723
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 1: targets even to a guy like Kelsey, you know, tend

724
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 1: to produce or like the efficiency ceiling is less than

725
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,239
Speaker 1: if you're throwing the receivers all day. So I think he,

726
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 1: you know, with with what they're what they got going

727
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:00,840
Speaker 1: on and running back what they got going on with Kelsey,

728
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 1: it seems like a year where Mahomes is going to

729
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:06,640
Speaker 1: be thrown a lot to his receivers. And as you mentioned,

730
00:40:07,080 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 1: but two of those three guys are speed demons who

731
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:12,560
Speaker 1: could can go deep anytime they want. And and Rashid

732
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 1: Rice one of the most efficient guys in the league.

733
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:17,280
Speaker 1: You should got at least double or triple the amount

734
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 1: of games out of him as he did a season ago.

735
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 1: So and Juju Smith Schuster is going to break out

736
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:23,440
Speaker 1: for the third time in his career. Now, you know,

737
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 1: it's it's like it's ebbs and flows with him. So, uh,

738
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 1: just kidding, I don't I don't think he no, I

739
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 1: think I think Mahomes has you know, he's he's had it.

740
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:35,960
Speaker 1: He has enough of a track record. We know how

741
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:38,320
Speaker 1: good he is. We know they're looking to kind of

742
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 1: get back, uh you know, to that to that offense

743
00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:46,920
Speaker 1: one way or another. And they did at least, you know,

744
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:49,360
Speaker 1: it looks from you know, from the looks of it.

745
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:51,239
Speaker 1: You know, we'll have to see how it plays out.

746
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 1: But they could have a better offensive line this year

747
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 1: if things fall into place as well. So that's something

748
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,640
Speaker 1: to watch. But as of now, yeah, I have if

749
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:04,080
Speaker 1: I'm going to be taking a gamban a pocket passer,

750
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 1: I think I feel a little bit better about Mahomes,

751
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:08,839
Speaker 1: and I know he runs a little bit. Baker ran

752
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 1: more last year, but I feel a little bit better

753
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:16,320
Speaker 1: about about Mahomes just outside of that, you know, with

754
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:20,520
Speaker 1: no loss of Andy Reid, whereas I don't know, we

755
00:41:20,600 --> 00:41:23,320
Speaker 1: don't know exactly how much Liam Cohne influenced Baker, but

756
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:25,319
Speaker 1: the fact that we thought Baker had a great year

757
00:41:25,360 --> 00:41:27,279
Speaker 1: the year before and then and then it just went

758
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:31,279
Speaker 1: completely nuclear the next year with con I mean, uh,

759
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:34,280
Speaker 1: kind of factoring that in. So yeah, right now, Mahomes

760
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:35,439
Speaker 1: my QB six.

761
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:39,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mess spoke, he's my QB six too. He's

762
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:42,320
Speaker 3: seventh in Yahoo rinks. But I have I have Mahomes

763
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:46,239
Speaker 3: clearly ahead of Baker. And another thing to add on

764
00:41:46,440 --> 00:41:49,880
Speaker 3: is Burchard Smith is getting a lot of work in

765
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 3: camp so far, and he's more of a pass catching back,

766
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:54,719
Speaker 3: and we didn't really see that with the Chiefs last

767
00:41:54,760 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 3: year with you know, Kareem Hunt and Isaiah Pacheco. So

768
00:41:58,080 --> 00:42:00,919
Speaker 3: if we can see more like a Jack McKinnon type back,

769
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:04,120
Speaker 3: that's also gonna boost Mahomes just in terms of passing

770
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:04,719
Speaker 3: arts as well.

771
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:08,759
Speaker 1: This year. Yeah, more, he just needs more options. I

772
00:42:08,840 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 1: mean Pacheco. One of the issues with him, besides the

773
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 1: decline in the efficiency, was it was kind of a

774
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 1: tip off at times to you know, what they were

775
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 1: gonna do, because Pacheco is just not as good in

776
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:23,480
Speaker 1: a receiving game, and they tried to force it at

777
00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:26,200
Speaker 1: times and it just didn't It just didn't really work,

778
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 1: all right. Next up, we have at number eight Bo Knicks,

779
00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:34,640
Speaker 1: and he's a really intriguing one because he has that

780
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 1: rushing upside four hundred and thirty yards as a rookie

781
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 1: for touchdowns, can scramble, can do the design game if

782
00:42:41,920 --> 00:42:44,839
Speaker 1: they really want, and they probably hope they don't need

783
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 1: to this year after adding R. J. Harvey, after adding Dobbins,

784
00:42:48,280 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 1: but he has that dual threat upside. Was a top

785
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:56,520
Speaker 1: ten quarterback last season, you know, just under thirty eight

786
00:42:56,600 --> 00:43:00,120
Speaker 1: hundred passing us, twenty nine touchdowns, twelve picks mentioned to

787
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 1: over four undo rushing yards. Sean, what what is bo

788
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:09,239
Speaker 1: Nicks's realistic ceiling and also his floor? Because I think

789
00:43:09,520 --> 00:43:11,640
Speaker 1: I think the reason Nis doesn't get more hype is

790
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:14,040
Speaker 1: because people just look at him as this guy that

791
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:17,400
Speaker 1: it could just go completely south and you know, like

792
00:43:17,520 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 1: almost like adjusted fields type even though I think he's

793
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:23,719
Speaker 1: weeps and bounds better, and yeah, has a great coach,

794
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 1: you know, kind of calling the shots. But what you

795
00:43:26,160 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 1: see is his ceiling and floor, Like can he overtake

796
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 1: let's say, a Herd or a Lamar or somebody like that,

797
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 1: if they if they maybe miss a game or two

798
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:38,440
Speaker 1: or or you know, just have some regression, or is

799
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:40,319
Speaker 1: he kind of locked in, you know, outside the top

800
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 1: four And then what is his floor?

801
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:42,839
Speaker 3: How?

802
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 1: How how way down there is his floor? Given that

803
00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 1: he can run the ball.

804
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like, yeah, I'm gonna thread the needle here. I

805
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:50,880
Speaker 2: think he has a very high floor.

806
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 3: Like I don't see him, you know, falling outside of

807
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:56,920
Speaker 3: the top fifteen if he's healthy, let's say, But I

808
00:43:57,040 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 3: also don't know if he has like top three upside necessarily. Now,

809
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:05,040
Speaker 3: certainly he has what we want, right, he's a dual

810
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 3: threat quarterback. He had ten games of twenty plus rushing yards.

811
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 3: There was a weird four game stretch where he just

812
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 3: refused to scramble. Not sure what was going on there,

813
00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:17,840
Speaker 3: but more times than not, he's giving you rushing yards

814
00:44:18,920 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 3: and he's a good passer. And again he was a

815
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:23,239
Speaker 3: rookie last year, so we'd expect him to get better

816
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:26,440
Speaker 3: as a passer in year two. But I think the

817
00:44:26,480 --> 00:44:29,320
Speaker 3: one thing that might be limiting him, and it's not

818
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 3: even his fault, is just the Broncos have a really

819
00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:34,640
Speaker 3: good defense, so they're not going to really get into

820
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 3: many shootouts, so he's just not gonna have to throw

821
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 3: much or drop back as much. So I think that

822
00:44:39,760 --> 00:44:42,399
Speaker 3: kind of caps his ceiling, which it's not even his fault,

823
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 3: but you know, outside of Courtland Sutton, he didn't really

824
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:49,840
Speaker 3: have many options. You know, Marvin min stepped up at

825
00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 3: the end of last season, so I think the fact

826
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:55,240
Speaker 3: that they brought in Evan Ingram as long as he's healthy,

827
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:58,840
Speaker 3: could unlock you know, Bownick's top five upside. And I

828
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:01,800
Speaker 3: think we'll need to see one of these receivers outside

829
00:45:01,800 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 3: of Sutton step up this year, whether that's Marvin Mims

830
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 3: again or you know, maybe the rookie Pat Bryant could

831
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 3: step up.

832
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 2: You know, r J.

833
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:13,200
Speaker 3: Harvey is a good pass catching back. He's just gonna

834
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:16,800
Speaker 3: need some other options to really, you know, be a

835
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:19,279
Speaker 3: top five quarterback. So again, I think just the things

836
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:22,120
Speaker 3: outside of his control might limit his ceiling. But I

837
00:45:22,200 --> 00:45:24,879
Speaker 3: think he's he's you know, a lock to be at

838
00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:27,000
Speaker 3: least a low end QB one. I think he has

839
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 3: a very high floor, So I'm okay drafting him in

840
00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 3: this range. But again, this is kind of a weird

841
00:45:32,760 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 3: zone for me, where you know, you could just hold

842
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:37,880
Speaker 3: off at the position and potentially get a top ten

843
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:41,520
Speaker 3: quarterback anyway. But I think Nicks in general is a

844
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 3: very high floor type of fancy asset just given his

845
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:47,719
Speaker 3: his dual threat ability, which we've said time and time

846
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 3: again kind of kind of helps you be a consistent

847
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:53,440
Speaker 3: fancy starter, so that he's got that going for him.

848
00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:56,040
Speaker 3: So I'm right right in line with you know, him

849
00:45:56,080 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 3: being in the QB eight QB nine range right now.

850
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:02,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like I don't like he's going sixty fourth overall.

851
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:05,360
Speaker 1: I think that's too high, Like this whole tier. I

852
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 1: just don't think, you know, to your point you want

853
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 1: to be taking quarterbacks here. But I do have more

854
00:46:11,000 --> 00:46:15,520
Speaker 1: confidence in him than or exceeding value than some of

855
00:46:15,560 --> 00:46:18,840
Speaker 1: the pocket passes, even though they're much better passers. So

856
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:21,600
Speaker 1: I am looking for him to fall, and I do

857
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:24,280
Speaker 1: think he'll fall in drafts just because I think opinions

858
00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 1: of him. You know, there's only he only has a

859
00:46:26,120 --> 00:46:29,280
Speaker 1: one year track record. You didn't blow people away necessarily

860
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:30,719
Speaker 1: the way jayde and Daniels did. I think it was

861
00:46:30,719 --> 00:46:33,080
Speaker 1: a little more nuanced with Knicks, where the more you like,

862
00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 1: the more you watch him, the more you like him.

863
00:46:35,080 --> 00:46:38,640
Speaker 1: But I think he's just gonna really kind of worry

864
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 1: people in drafters and there will be certain drafts where

865
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 1: he'll he'll probably drop to you know, probably into the nineties,

866
00:46:47,200 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 1: into the you know, the eighth, ninth, tenth round, uh,

867
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:53,040
Speaker 1: just because you know, people go with people go with

868
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:55,320
Speaker 1: other directions. So he is a guy I'm looking to

869
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:58,320
Speaker 1: scoop where I can if he falls, because I agree

870
00:46:58,360 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 1: I think he has that that floor, and when you

871
00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:03,360
Speaker 1: have a floor, that's that's always a great thing for

872
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:06,319
Speaker 1: your ceiling as well, because I mean, all you need

873
00:47:06,520 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 1: is you know, Josh Allen to get hurt or Lamar

874
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:12,279
Speaker 1: to get you know, miss five six games instead of

875
00:47:12,640 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 1: none or something like that, and that ceiling that you say, oh, well,

876
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 1: maybe it's only top five. Now he's into the top

877
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:21,840
Speaker 1: three because he does have that dual threat ability and

878
00:47:22,040 --> 00:47:24,680
Speaker 1: he had nearly thirty passing touchdowns last year. He's got

879
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:29,560
Speaker 1: Pat Bryan is probably better than some combination of Josh

880
00:47:29,640 --> 00:47:33,160
Speaker 1: Reynolds and Bayley. Troy Frank was probably better than the

881
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:35,319
Speaker 1: last year's version of Troy Frank when that's what we're

882
00:47:35,320 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 1: hearing in camp Sutton, they still feel good about. He

883
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:39,800
Speaker 1: just signed a big extension.

884
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:40,279
Speaker 2: R J.

885
00:47:40,400 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 1: Harvey's definitely better than Javonte Williams. JK. Dobbs, probably a

886
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:46,600
Speaker 1: better pass catcher than whoever was their number two pass

887
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:49,120
Speaker 1: catcher running back last year, whoever it was mclafflin. I

888
00:47:49,160 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 1: don't know estimate. I mean, Rennie Ingram is better than

889
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:57,759
Speaker 1: Lucas Kroll, so I feel like he's gotten upgrade or

890
00:47:57,880 --> 00:47:59,680
Speaker 1: he's got a very and Mems came on down the

891
00:47:59,719 --> 00:48:02,320
Speaker 1: stretch too, so man is a completely different player. I

892
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 1: feel like last you know, six eight games. So yeah,

893
00:48:06,680 --> 00:48:08,800
Speaker 1: I'm pretty optimistic about bo Nicks. I think he's a

894
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 1: guy that I could see him putting up like a

895
00:48:11,239 --> 00:48:15,919
Speaker 1: monster Josh Allen like season out of nowhere. I think

896
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:18,879
Speaker 1: he's He's a guy that I'm I am trying to take,

897
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 1: never take ahead of adp for any quarterback, but I'm

898
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:24,920
Speaker 1: I'm fine kind of jumping back in on Knicks if

899
00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:29,400
Speaker 1: I can get him QB nine. Justin Fields, I was

900
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 1: a little bit surprised by that. I know, you know,

901
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 1: we've been talking him up at times. You know, he

902
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 1: you know, we'd want rushing quarterbacks. But like the market

903
00:48:37,680 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 1: has kind of gone pretty high on him. He's up

904
00:48:40,120 --> 00:48:42,560
Speaker 1: to QB eleven. I have him as QB twelve, but

905
00:48:42,640 --> 00:48:45,879
Speaker 1: that assumes he plays a normal amount of games, which

906
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:48,719
Speaker 1: I mean, he's already banged up with knee injury. You know,

907
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 1: who knows ultimately what the Jets goals are this season.

908
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:58,480
Speaker 1: So I do think that by them signing him, they

909
00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:00,839
Speaker 1: intended to kind of with them all year, Like they

910
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:04,839
Speaker 1: don't really have any incentive not to unless they they're

911
00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:08,040
Speaker 1: trying to tank or something. And think, I mean Tyrod

912
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:12,800
Speaker 1: Taylor and you know is probably not gonna like increase

913
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 1: your chances of losing significantly more so I would think

914
00:49:16,040 --> 00:49:19,920
Speaker 1: he gets all he can handle. But uh, the interesting

915
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:23,680
Speaker 1: thing with Feels is his career averages are one hundred

916
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:26,680
Speaker 1: and seventy five passing yards per start and fifty five

917
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 1: rushing yards per start. So I mean, do you see

918
00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:33,640
Speaker 1: any upside beyond that in this Jet offense?

919
00:49:33,719 --> 00:49:34,120
Speaker 2: What really?

920
00:49:34,880 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 1: I mean, one receiver to speak up at this point,

921
00:49:37,760 --> 00:49:41,920
Speaker 1: and do you think he does get to start, you know,

922
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:44,440
Speaker 1: a full season and kind of pay off that that

923
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:45,800
Speaker 1: top twelve ADP.

924
00:49:46,800 --> 00:49:50,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think his job security should be fairly safe.

925
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 3: You know, they they have Tyrod Taylor. I don't I

926
00:49:53,719 --> 00:49:56,239
Speaker 3: don't really see them having a reason to go to

927
00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:58,680
Speaker 3: Tyrod unless Fields get hurt gets hurt.

928
00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:02,799
Speaker 2: But I mean, I feel like Field has always.

929
00:50:02,520 --> 00:50:05,279
Speaker 3: Been underrated in fantasy as a result, we're usually talking

930
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:08,680
Speaker 3: him up just saying he has massive rushing up sides,

931
00:50:08,760 --> 00:50:11,680
Speaker 3: so he should be going you know, much earlier in drafts,

932
00:50:11,680 --> 00:50:14,040
Speaker 3: whereas this year it's kind of crazy to see him

933
00:50:14,080 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 3: going in the top ten, and a few of my

934
00:50:17,160 --> 00:50:20,680
Speaker 3: drafts he's gone inside the top ten. So I think

935
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 3: that it just comes with more risks because he does

936
00:50:23,120 --> 00:50:25,920
Speaker 3: rely on his legs a ton, so he's you know,

937
00:50:26,040 --> 00:50:28,480
Speaker 3: more likely to get injured miss games because of that.

938
00:50:29,160 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 3: But also this offense, you know, they have Garrett Wilson,

939
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 3: who's one of the better young receivers in the game,

940
00:50:35,520 --> 00:50:37,680
Speaker 3: but outside of that, they don't really have anybody else,

941
00:50:37,719 --> 00:50:41,160
Speaker 3: so it's gonna be easier for defenses to slow him

942
00:50:41,239 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 3: down and then Fields from there. So this is a

943
00:50:45,880 --> 00:50:49,960
Speaker 3: really tough situation to be using this much draft capital

944
00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:52,799
Speaker 3: to take them. It's kind of like Anthony Richardson last year,

945
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:55,880
Speaker 3: who's going super high where you could just get you know,

946
00:50:56,120 --> 00:50:58,680
Speaker 3: a guy with similar upside way way later in the drafts.

947
00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:04,080
Speaker 3: Maybe that is Anthony Richardson, but like, just this is

948
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:07,800
Speaker 3: just way too early to be investing this much draft

949
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:12,120
Speaker 3: capital on him, despite him obviously having massive upside given

950
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:15,200
Speaker 3: his his rushing ability. But this is just a range

951
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:17,360
Speaker 3: where I'm staying away from taking a guy like this

952
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 3: inside my top ten. There's just there's a couple of

953
00:51:21,080 --> 00:51:23,160
Speaker 3: guys later on that you can get with the same

954
00:51:23,280 --> 00:51:26,680
Speaker 3: upside at a much cheaper cost. And in this range,

955
00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:29,840
Speaker 3: I rather again just be taking another running back, receiver

956
00:51:30,080 --> 00:51:33,600
Speaker 3: or tight end than you know, taking justin Field here.

957
00:51:34,200 --> 00:51:38,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I feel like it's justin Fields. And

958
00:51:38,760 --> 00:51:43,880
Speaker 1: then like chidor Sanders, the market is probably too confident

959
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:46,880
Speaker 1: in and Russell Wilson, and what do you know about

960
00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:50,640
Speaker 1: those three teams like New York New York Football teams

961
00:51:50,680 --> 00:51:55,879
Speaker 1: and the Browns like factories of sadness. I think it's

962
00:51:56,200 --> 00:52:00,680
Speaker 1: probably shouldn't be overrating there any of their quarterbacks too much,

963
00:52:00,800 --> 00:52:03,760
Speaker 1: especially like yeah, like not not the not the Chucks.

964
00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:06,759
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's I mean, he's like QB twelve again.

965
00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:09,000
Speaker 1: I think a lot of it just comes down to,

966
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:11,640
Speaker 1: you know, is he is he gonna be healthy and

967
00:52:12,680 --> 00:52:14,920
Speaker 1: uh get to start the whole year, then he's gonna

968
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:17,719
Speaker 1: he's gonna be in that discussion. But yeah, I mean

969
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:21,880
Speaker 1: this is also why you can kind of call this

970
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 1: a dead zone and kind of take like, I mean,

971
00:52:25,000 --> 00:52:26,839
Speaker 1: one of these guys is gonna drop, whether it's bow

972
00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 1: Nicks or fields. And you know a guy will talk

973
00:52:30,239 --> 00:52:33,600
Speaker 1: about in a second is another guy but rushing upside.

974
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:37,760
Speaker 1: But before we get to him, he got Brot Purdy

975
00:52:38,400 --> 00:52:42,080
Speaker 1: and he cocks in number ten. He goes round to

976
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:44,520
Speaker 1: be twelve. It depends though. He can go as high

977
00:52:44,520 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 1: as you know, nine or ten, but he can go

978
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:48,800
Speaker 1: as well as fourteen. He's got a little wide range sometimes.

979
00:52:49,400 --> 00:52:54,120
Speaker 1: Last year he was just inside the top fifteen overall

980
00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:56,920
Speaker 1: and round two B twelve and points per game, so

981
00:52:57,080 --> 00:52:59,640
Speaker 1: borderline QB one. But it was up and down with him.

982
00:53:00,239 --> 00:53:00,359
Speaker 3: Uh.

983
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:02,280
Speaker 1: He had some really good games, some really bad games.

984
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 1: But in his career, he's he's another guy that really

985
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:08,880
Speaker 1: is It's a I think he's really difficult to project

986
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:13,160
Speaker 1: because you know, do you just let the regression do

987
00:53:13,280 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 1: its work? Or do you have how much you factor

988
00:53:15,640 --> 00:53:18,480
Speaker 1: in the Shanahan offense? How much de factor in the

989
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:21,239
Speaker 1: musical chairs at receivers because for his career, he's got

990
00:53:21,239 --> 00:53:24,359
Speaker 1: two hundred fifty seven passing yards per game, but he's

991
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:27,040
Speaker 1: gotten there on nine point zero yards in attempt, which

992
00:53:27,120 --> 00:53:32,359
Speaker 1: is just unbelievable. And uh, this year, you know, as

993
00:53:32,440 --> 00:53:34,800
Speaker 1: I mentioned, we don't know what's going on with IUK.

994
00:53:34,880 --> 00:53:38,200
Speaker 1: He's probably you're not gonna get a fully healthy version

995
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:41,920
Speaker 1: of him until mid season or later. You got, uh,

996
00:53:42,320 --> 00:53:45,400
Speaker 1: deebo is gone, you got you know, are you going

997
00:53:45,480 --> 00:53:48,400
Speaker 1: to have a full season of McCaffrey. You know Kiddle

998
00:53:48,440 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 1: had a full season last year? Is he going to

999
00:53:49,960 --> 00:53:52,279
Speaker 1: be able to reproduce that? He just got a lot

1000
00:53:52,320 --> 00:53:54,719
Speaker 1: of questions mark question marks at the wide receiver and

1001
00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:56,839
Speaker 1: pass catcher positions in general. So what are you doing

1002
00:53:56,880 --> 00:53:59,359
Speaker 1: with with brock Perdy? Is he a guy where they're

1003
00:54:00,000 --> 00:54:02,080
Speaker 1: do you have a wider range of outcomes or is

1004
00:54:02,080 --> 00:54:03,759
Speaker 1: he one of those guys where he's kind of got

1005
00:54:03,920 --> 00:54:05,640
Speaker 1: like a high floor cap ceiling.

1006
00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:10,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's definitely like a higher floor guy, but lower ceiling.

1007
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:12,520
Speaker 2: So I'm in this range.

1008
00:54:12,560 --> 00:54:14,480
Speaker 3: But he's not a guy I'm trying to draft here

1009
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:17,960
Speaker 3: because of everything you pointed out, there's there's a lot

1010
00:54:18,440 --> 00:54:22,480
Speaker 3: of question marks because he's losing Deebo, Samuel Brandon I

1011
00:54:22,840 --> 00:54:25,600
Speaker 3: might not even be playing until week five, and who

1012
00:54:25,680 --> 00:54:28,920
Speaker 3: knows how healthy he'll be then. So you know, he

1013
00:54:29,040 --> 00:54:32,680
Speaker 3: still has you know, Juwan Jennings and Ricky Piersoll there.

1014
00:54:32,840 --> 00:54:34,680
Speaker 3: And it's important to point out that the forty nine

1015
00:54:34,760 --> 00:54:38,160
Speaker 3: ers don't use a ton of three wide receiver personnel,

1016
00:54:38,280 --> 00:54:41,040
Speaker 3: so they can get by with two good receivers and

1017
00:54:41,160 --> 00:54:44,719
Speaker 3: I think Jennings and Piersoll will be fine. So he

1018
00:54:44,920 --> 00:54:46,640
Speaker 3: you know, he has George Kittle. I think that's the

1019
00:54:46,719 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 3: most important part. That George Kittle's still there. Christian McCaffrey's

1020
00:54:51,080 --> 00:54:54,440
Speaker 3: healthy and who's an excellent pass catching back. But if

1021
00:54:54,560 --> 00:54:57,759
Speaker 3: you know, the injuries start piling up from there, then

1022
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:02,719
Speaker 3: you know that really lowers his projection. And the one

1023
00:55:02,760 --> 00:55:04,960
Speaker 3: thing I will point out is last year we finally

1024
00:55:04,960 --> 00:55:08,080
Speaker 3: saw him tap into that rushing upside his rookie season.

1025
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 3: I kept screaming to the roof whoever listened to me

1026
00:55:11,960 --> 00:55:15,120
Speaker 3: that he did have more rushing upside than we've seen.

1027
00:55:15,719 --> 00:55:18,480
Speaker 3: He just wasn't tapping into it for whatever reason. But

1028
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:22,040
Speaker 3: last year we finally saw that. You know, he ran

1029
00:55:22,080 --> 00:55:24,880
Speaker 3: for over three hundred yards had five rushing touchdowns, so

1030
00:55:25,000 --> 00:55:27,520
Speaker 3: he has more rushing upside than I think people realized.

1031
00:55:27,960 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 3: But he's still more of a pocket passer that kind

1032
00:55:30,160 --> 00:55:33,319
Speaker 3: of relies on his pass catchers being healthy and things

1033
00:55:33,440 --> 00:55:36,200
Speaker 3: like that. So I think QB ten is a bit rich.

1034
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:40,399
Speaker 3: This isn't the range I like drafting a quarterback anyway. Plus,

1035
00:55:40,480 --> 00:55:43,040
Speaker 3: when you're talking about you know, season long, head to

1036
00:55:43,080 --> 00:55:47,480
Speaker 3: head leagues that start one quarterback already did my initial

1037
00:55:47,520 --> 00:55:51,359
Speaker 3: week one projections. He's at Seattle week one, and he's

1038
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:55,360
Speaker 3: my like QB sixteen, So if you draft him, you

1039
00:55:55,480 --> 00:55:58,839
Speaker 3: might be playing somebody else week one, which isn't good.

1040
00:55:58,880 --> 00:56:01,759
Speaker 3: And that kind of highlights I don't draft guys in

1041
00:56:01,840 --> 00:56:05,680
Speaker 3: this range is because sometimes there's gonna be guys available

1042
00:56:05,680 --> 00:56:07,880
Speaker 3: in the waiver wire that I have ranked higher for

1043
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:10,680
Speaker 3: that week. So he's gonna be very matchup dependent of

1044
00:56:10,800 --> 00:56:14,120
Speaker 3: when he is, you know, a top ten option. And

1045
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:16,560
Speaker 3: that's why you know, this is a range where I'm

1046
00:56:16,600 --> 00:56:20,240
Speaker 3: not drafting a player like Party. I'd rather just invest

1047
00:56:20,360 --> 00:56:23,399
Speaker 3: in the you know, the skill players. On the forty

1048
00:56:23,480 --> 00:56:25,880
Speaker 3: nine ers than the quarterback itself in the situation.

1049
00:56:26,719 --> 00:56:30,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I mean it's it's interesting because even with

1050
00:56:30,920 --> 00:56:35,040
Speaker 1: that ridiculous efficiency, I mean, yeah, average nine yards in attempt,

1051
00:56:35,320 --> 00:56:37,160
Speaker 1: I mean, you think you'd be at like two eighty

1052
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:40,440
Speaker 1: two ninety per game. But you know, it's been a

1053
00:56:40,760 --> 00:56:43,319
Speaker 1: you know, it's been a generally they try to keep

1054
00:56:43,360 --> 00:56:46,920
Speaker 1: the volume in check for that Niners team. Uh, and

1055
00:56:47,560 --> 00:56:50,200
Speaker 1: this is like this is their year where they surprise

1056
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:53,200
Speaker 1: everyone and and and go to the Super Bowl again,

1057
00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:55,400
Speaker 1: right like that that's how they go have a horrible

1058
00:56:55,480 --> 00:56:57,839
Speaker 1: season and then everyone writes them off and now it's

1059
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:00,960
Speaker 1: like back to the super Bowl. So I'm joking, but

1060
00:57:01,120 --> 00:57:05,440
Speaker 1: they actually do have statistically the easiest schedule in the

1061
00:57:05,520 --> 00:57:09,239
Speaker 1: league by a lot of metrics. So it could be

1062
00:57:09,320 --> 00:57:11,480
Speaker 1: one of those years where the volume does kind of

1063
00:57:11,520 --> 00:57:14,440
Speaker 1: limit the upside regardless, probably maybe even more so than

1064
00:57:14,480 --> 00:57:16,680
Speaker 1: the pass catchers because he has kind of Shanahan, I mean,

1065
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:19,840
Speaker 1: he had Nick Mullens and all these guys looking super efficient,

1066
00:57:19,880 --> 00:57:21,560
Speaker 1: So it might not even be a question of the

1067
00:57:21,600 --> 00:57:24,880
Speaker 1: pass catchers but just kind of off the volume of

1068
00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:29,600
Speaker 1: the offense. Kyler Murray is number eleven in that same division.

1069
00:57:29,880 --> 00:57:32,720
Speaker 1: He goes off the board as QB nine, but a

1070
00:57:32,800 --> 00:57:37,600
Speaker 1: much more palatable ninety fifth overall, and last season he

1071
00:57:37,720 --> 00:57:40,480
Speaker 1: was a QB ten overall, but points per game a

1072
00:57:40,560 --> 00:57:44,120
Speaker 1: little bit lower and his career high. I mean, we

1073
00:57:44,360 --> 00:57:46,600
Speaker 1: looked at Trade McBride last year in terms of the

1074
00:57:46,880 --> 00:57:49,919
Speaker 1: lack of touchdowns, but Kler Murray's topped out at twenty

1075
00:57:49,960 --> 00:57:53,600
Speaker 1: six passing touchdowns one point six per game that year,

1076
00:57:53,720 --> 00:57:55,680
Speaker 1: one point seven in terms of the per game average.

1077
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:58,160
Speaker 1: But either way that that's going to get you, that's

1078
00:57:58,200 --> 00:58:00,400
Speaker 1: not even gonna get you to thirty. And the last

1079
00:58:00,440 --> 00:58:03,840
Speaker 1: three years he's been very consistently around one point twenty

1080
00:58:03,880 --> 00:58:07,040
Speaker 1: five passing touchdowns per game, which over a seventeen game

1081
00:58:07,120 --> 00:58:12,120
Speaker 1: season projects out to right around twenty one. So his

1082
00:58:12,280 --> 00:58:14,920
Speaker 1: rushing yardage has been there, around thirty to thirty eight

1083
00:58:15,160 --> 00:58:17,680
Speaker 1: all except one year he's had over fifty, just over fifty.

1084
00:58:17,760 --> 00:58:21,760
Speaker 1: But I think it really ultimately comes down to the

1085
00:58:21,960 --> 00:58:25,120
Speaker 1: passing touchdown upside Sean, And I know that is a

1086
00:58:25,160 --> 00:58:28,640
Speaker 1: stat that does tend to have some regression, but you

1087
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:30,640
Speaker 1: also kind of get more of a sense of a

1088
00:58:30,760 --> 00:58:34,600
Speaker 1: quarterback's traits to the longer he plays as well, So like,

1089
00:58:34,720 --> 00:58:37,480
Speaker 1: how are you projecting his his passing touchdowns because I

1090
00:58:37,480 --> 00:58:39,080
Speaker 1: think that's kind of his make or break at this point.

1091
00:58:39,080 --> 00:58:41,400
Speaker 1: He has some massive upside if he could, you know,

1092
00:58:41,600 --> 00:58:45,240
Speaker 1: throw thirty touchdowns plus, So what are you doing with him?

1093
00:58:45,840 --> 00:58:48,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I have his passing touchdown projection right at

1094
00:58:48,960 --> 00:58:51,240
Speaker 3: twenty one, which is how many through last year. But

1095
00:58:51,320 --> 00:58:53,720
Speaker 3: he played every single game last year, so yeah, you've

1096
00:58:53,720 --> 00:58:56,240
Speaker 3: got to factor that in. So I mean, I'm pretty

1097
00:58:56,320 --> 00:59:01,680
Speaker 3: much in line with his staff from last year. But

1098
00:59:01,880 --> 00:59:04,520
Speaker 3: he has said that he's feeling a lot healthier and

1099
00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:06,400
Speaker 3: he's going to be more willing to run this year,

1100
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:09,280
Speaker 3: at least his start the season. So I think that's

1101
00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:11,520
Speaker 3: going to be huge with Kyler. That's always, you know,

1102
00:59:12,560 --> 00:59:15,440
Speaker 3: what we're relying on. But I think he does have

1103
00:59:15,520 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 3: a higher ceiling in terms of passing passing touchdowns this year,

1104
00:59:20,280 --> 00:59:24,120
Speaker 3: and it all depends on his chemistry with Marvin Harrison Junior,

1105
00:59:24,240 --> 00:59:27,240
Speaker 3: who you know, was their first round pick last year.

1106
00:59:27,320 --> 00:59:30,200
Speaker 3: They just they weren't on the same page on downfill throws.

1107
00:59:30,240 --> 00:59:33,240
Speaker 3: That's never really been Kyler's game, but they have been

1108
00:59:33,280 --> 00:59:36,440
Speaker 3: working on it this camp. I've heard it's been getting better.

1109
00:59:37,000 --> 00:59:39,000
Speaker 3: We'll see if that spills over in the season. But

1110
00:59:39,120 --> 00:59:42,200
Speaker 3: if he can unlock that with Marvin and Harrison Junior

1111
00:59:42,360 --> 00:59:45,040
Speaker 3: and have you know, an elite tight end like Trey McBride,

1112
00:59:45,680 --> 00:59:47,760
Speaker 3: that's how we're going to get like a ceiling case

1113
00:59:47,800 --> 00:59:49,960
Speaker 3: for Kyler. And I think he still has you know,

1114
00:59:50,080 --> 00:59:53,520
Speaker 3: top five upside if that were to happen. So if

1115
00:59:53,560 --> 00:59:56,200
Speaker 3: he's going outside the top ten, this is a range

1116
00:59:56,240 --> 00:59:59,440
Speaker 3: where I'm typically not drafting quarterback, but if he falls

1117
00:59:59,480 --> 01:00:01,960
Speaker 3: out out of the top ten, he would be a

1118
01:00:02,080 --> 01:00:05,160
Speaker 3: player that I would consider drafting just because he does

1119
01:00:05,320 --> 01:00:09,120
Speaker 3: have that dual threat ability and just a ceiling that

1120
01:00:09,240 --> 01:00:11,920
Speaker 3: we might not have seen with him yet with you know,

1121
01:00:12,760 --> 01:00:15,800
Speaker 3: a pass catching duo and Marvin Harrison Junior and Trey McBride,

1122
01:00:16,160 --> 01:00:19,720
Speaker 3: plus his rushing upside. So again, I think Kyler in

1123
01:00:19,840 --> 01:00:24,160
Speaker 3: the QB eleven spot is definitely worth taking in spots.

1124
01:00:24,160 --> 01:00:26,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I could. You know, he's he's not far off.

1125
01:00:26,880 --> 01:00:28,480
Speaker 1: He's my QB eight, he's not far off from my

1126
01:00:28,560 --> 01:00:32,760
Speaker 1: QB seven. He's about about a tenth of a point

1127
01:00:32,840 --> 01:00:35,600
Speaker 1: behind per game behind Baker Mayfield. And right now I

1128
01:00:35,680 --> 01:00:39,600
Speaker 1: have my homes projected somewhat aggressively, so you know, if

1129
01:00:39,680 --> 01:00:41,800
Speaker 1: we find out that you know, maybe his receivers aren't

1130
01:00:41,840 --> 01:00:43,720
Speaker 1: going to be what we thought they were or you

1131
01:00:43,800 --> 01:00:46,760
Speaker 1: know whatever or not in camp I could I could

1132
01:00:46,760 --> 01:00:49,960
Speaker 1: probably end the the offseason as high as QB six

1133
01:00:50,400 --> 01:00:52,480
Speaker 1: on Murray. I actually have him at twenty three and

1134
01:00:52,520 --> 01:00:56,320
Speaker 1: a half passing touchdown. So you just typically see in

1135
01:00:56,640 --> 01:00:57,960
Speaker 1: in that kind of offense.

1136
01:00:58,400 --> 01:00:59,840
Speaker 2: Uh, you know, with the with the.

1137
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:03,040
Speaker 1: Points I have them projected to score, Uh, you typically

1138
01:01:03,400 --> 01:01:06,880
Speaker 1: see more passing touchdowns than Kyra has been throwing. So

1139
01:01:08,160 --> 01:01:11,800
Speaker 1: I do have a little positive regression for him in

1140
01:01:11,880 --> 01:01:14,160
Speaker 1: that in that category, I think, you know, one point

1141
01:01:14,200 --> 01:01:17,600
Speaker 1: twenty five per game, given you know the type of

1142
01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:20,240
Speaker 1: offense that we project Arizona's going to be. I think

1143
01:01:20,280 --> 01:01:23,600
Speaker 1: that's just too low. So I do have him with

1144
01:01:23,760 --> 01:01:26,280
Speaker 1: a little more. And uh, yeah, I'm pretty high in Kolor.

1145
01:01:26,320 --> 01:01:28,160
Speaker 1: I think he's he's he's another one of these guys

1146
01:01:28,200 --> 01:01:30,320
Speaker 1: with you know, he has he's going to have more

1147
01:01:30,400 --> 01:01:33,560
Speaker 1: rushing upside than most of those other quarterbacks outside the

1148
01:01:33,640 --> 01:01:36,400
Speaker 1: top four, if not all of them. And uh, and

1149
01:01:36,520 --> 01:01:38,720
Speaker 1: he still has a lot of room to grow even

1150
01:01:38,840 --> 01:01:41,680
Speaker 1: efficiency wise. I mean he's been right around you know,

1151
01:01:41,840 --> 01:01:45,200
Speaker 1: under right around seven yards in attempt most of these years,

1152
01:01:45,280 --> 01:01:49,040
Speaker 1: but his career highest seven point nine. So if things quick,

1153
01:01:49,120 --> 01:01:52,160
Speaker 1: I think he could he could, you know, put a

1154
01:01:52,240 --> 01:01:54,960
Speaker 1: much better passing season than he has been. So yeah,

1155
01:01:55,040 --> 01:01:57,960
Speaker 1: I'm pretty pretty bush on Kyra relative to where he's

1156
01:01:58,000 --> 01:02:02,760
Speaker 1: going in drafts. Justin Herbert number twelve, I am not

1157
01:02:03,080 --> 01:02:05,760
Speaker 1: that bullet on him. He's going he goes to the

1158
01:02:05,840 --> 01:02:08,600
Speaker 1: QB thirteen. So it's not as if drafters are you know,

1159
01:02:09,440 --> 01:02:12,520
Speaker 1: super bullish on him. But I do think, you know,

1160
01:02:12,760 --> 01:02:15,480
Speaker 1: to your point Sean about kind of you can wait

1161
01:02:15,560 --> 01:02:18,960
Speaker 1: on quarterbacks and that you know, mid range, I think

1162
01:02:19,000 --> 01:02:21,439
Speaker 1: there's just so much opportunity and you don't really feel

1163
01:02:21,440 --> 01:02:23,680
Speaker 1: like you're missing out, especially once you get you know,

1164
01:02:23,920 --> 01:02:27,320
Speaker 1: into this Herbert kind of tier of guys where I

1165
01:02:27,440 --> 01:02:31,520
Speaker 1: mean Herbert goes as the QB thirteen. I could make

1166
01:02:31,560 --> 01:02:33,320
Speaker 1: a case that he falls out of the top twenty.

1167
01:02:34,240 --> 01:02:36,760
Speaker 1: You know, he's just he's a guy that it's it's

1168
01:02:36,920 --> 01:02:39,280
Speaker 1: very fractive. He's a very talented quarterback. If you talk

1169
01:02:39,280 --> 01:02:42,360
Speaker 1: about talent, he's right up there with with you know,

1170
01:02:42,560 --> 01:02:45,800
Speaker 1: probably just right below a guy like Burrow. But you

1171
01:02:45,880 --> 01:02:49,400
Speaker 1: look at his numbers last year twenty three touchdowns, three interceptions,

1172
01:02:49,440 --> 01:02:52,000
Speaker 1: and then what did he double that interception count up

1173
01:02:52,000 --> 01:02:55,280
Speaker 1: in the in the one playoff game. I mean it's

1174
01:02:55,760 --> 01:02:58,240
Speaker 1: you know that that's and then they're talking about, you know,

1175
01:02:58,320 --> 01:03:00,840
Speaker 1: is he gonna run more? But when he ran, he

1176
01:03:01,360 --> 01:03:03,640
Speaker 1: he got hurt. He tends to get banged up when

1177
01:03:03,680 --> 01:03:06,960
Speaker 1: he takes too much contact, and in last year he

1178
01:03:07,120 --> 01:03:09,080
Speaker 1: was at a career low two hundred and twenty seven

1179
01:03:09,120 --> 01:03:12,240
Speaker 1: point six passing yards and twenty nine point six attempts

1180
01:03:12,880 --> 01:03:16,080
Speaker 1: per game. I do think the volume goes up, but

1181
01:03:16,400 --> 01:03:21,240
Speaker 1: it's no guarantee that the receiving corps really allows for

1182
01:03:21,800 --> 01:03:24,200
Speaker 1: I mean, much more efficiency than he had last year.

1183
01:03:24,280 --> 01:03:27,240
Speaker 1: So ultimately I have him as my QB fifteen. Where

1184
01:03:27,240 --> 01:03:28,400
Speaker 1: are you on Herbert?

1185
01:03:29,200 --> 01:03:31,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I'm in line with you. I think you could.

1186
01:03:31,600 --> 01:03:33,800
Speaker 3: You could really argue you like eight to ten different

1187
01:03:33,880 --> 01:03:36,440
Speaker 3: quarterbacks could be in this slot. He's just sitting on

1188
01:03:36,560 --> 01:03:40,160
Speaker 3: top just this massive tier where any of these guys

1189
01:03:40,240 --> 01:03:43,520
Speaker 3: can have a great season. So whoever you put here

1190
01:03:43,720 --> 01:03:46,800
Speaker 3: was probably gonna be overrated. I think Herbert is way

1191
01:03:46,840 --> 01:03:49,200
Speaker 3: too high here. I think I would make a case

1192
01:03:49,240 --> 01:03:53,200
Speaker 3: for him in like two quarterback super flex leagues where

1193
01:03:54,240 --> 01:03:57,520
Speaker 3: I'm gonna want a more steady QB two option. I

1194
01:03:57,600 --> 01:03:59,680
Speaker 3: think that's where I would maybe reach for him, but

1195
01:04:00,760 --> 01:04:02,800
Speaker 3: I wouldn't want him unless he falls outside of the

1196
01:04:02,880 --> 01:04:06,320
Speaker 3: top fourteen or so. He just has a you know,

1197
01:04:06,360 --> 01:04:10,080
Speaker 3: a higher floor where last year he finished inside the

1198
01:04:10,160 --> 01:04:14,800
Speaker 3: top twelve forty four percent of the time, which ranked fourteenth,

1199
01:04:15,880 --> 01:04:18,040
Speaker 3: but he never had he didn't have a single top

1200
01:04:18,120 --> 01:04:20,960
Speaker 3: five finish, So he just doesn't have that ceiling that

1201
01:04:21,160 --> 01:04:24,520
Speaker 3: some of these other quarterbacks do, and I think that's

1202
01:04:24,560 --> 01:04:28,400
Speaker 3: just better for two quarterback leagues. But you know, when

1203
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:31,480
Speaker 3: it comes to this offense, we'll see I think, you know,

1204
01:04:31,600 --> 01:04:36,720
Speaker 3: adding a rookie like Trey Harris Well Ronde Gatson could

1205
01:04:36,760 --> 01:04:39,000
Speaker 3: be a steal in the fifth round at tight end.

1206
01:04:39,480 --> 01:04:42,680
Speaker 3: He could have better pass catchers this year, which I

1207
01:04:42,720 --> 01:04:44,160
Speaker 3: think will help him. But I think at the end

1208
01:04:44,160 --> 01:04:45,800
Speaker 3: of the day, he's just more of a high floor,

1209
01:04:46,480 --> 01:04:49,320
Speaker 3: low ceiling option. So this just isn't the part in

1210
01:04:49,400 --> 01:04:51,800
Speaker 3: the draft where I'm taking guy like that if it's

1211
01:04:51,800 --> 01:04:54,600
Speaker 3: a one QB league. So, like I said, it would

1212
01:04:54,640 --> 01:04:56,640
Speaker 3: have to be a two QB league, and he's got

1213
01:04:56,760 --> 01:04:58,720
Speaker 3: to be going outside of the top fourteen or so.

1214
01:05:00,000 --> 01:05:02,240
Speaker 3: But this is just a range where you could just

1215
01:05:02,320 --> 01:05:05,600
Speaker 3: wait and get somebody with a similar floor end ceiling

1216
01:05:05,680 --> 01:05:08,600
Speaker 3: combo than justin Herbert. So this is the part where

1217
01:05:09,600 --> 01:05:12,800
Speaker 3: when you use my tier based drafting strategy, this is

1218
01:05:12,920 --> 01:05:15,480
Speaker 3: a no fly zone for me, no matter who is

1219
01:05:15,520 --> 01:05:16,000
Speaker 3: going right here.

1220
01:05:17,280 --> 01:05:20,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think Herbert particularly has a case where

1221
01:05:20,640 --> 01:05:23,000
Speaker 1: I mean you already waid it out with the lack

1222
01:05:23,080 --> 01:05:26,480
Speaker 1: of a ceiling last year, and you got to remember

1223
01:05:26,840 --> 01:05:30,280
Speaker 1: who's the offensive coordinator there. Greg Roman loves to run

1224
01:05:30,320 --> 01:05:33,040
Speaker 1: the football. Yeah he took Harrison round two, but who

1225
01:05:33,080 --> 01:05:35,680
Speaker 1: do they take in round one? Are running back? You know,

1226
01:05:35,920 --> 01:05:41,200
Speaker 1: it's like everything kind of cancels itself out and there's

1227
01:05:41,240 --> 01:05:43,920
Speaker 1: a I mean, Greg Roman for his career has been

1228
01:05:44,600 --> 01:05:50,280
Speaker 1: a ninetieth eighty ninth percentile in terms of rushing attempts.

1229
01:05:50,400 --> 01:05:53,680
Speaker 1: Last year is the first time he had a team

1230
01:05:53,720 --> 01:05:56,320
Speaker 1: finished outside the top ten in rushing attempts, and the

1231
01:05:56,400 --> 01:05:59,960
Speaker 1: charge of finished eleven. So you could have a high

1232
01:06:00,080 --> 01:06:03,080
Speaker 1: volume rushing attack if if Harris doesn't hit, I mean,

1233
01:06:03,120 --> 01:06:06,480
Speaker 1: you're still looking at a pretty brutal receiving corpse. I mean,

1234
01:06:06,880 --> 01:06:10,840
Speaker 1: you know, yeah, Gadson is intriguing, but uh, he's probably

1235
01:06:10,880 --> 01:06:14,760
Speaker 1: gonna split snaps with Disway and uh Conklin anyways, So

1236
01:06:14,920 --> 01:06:18,600
Speaker 1: it's there's just not there's just not really a ton

1237
01:06:19,240 --> 01:06:21,440
Speaker 1: of game changing upside. And then I don't think he

1238
01:06:21,600 --> 01:06:24,520
Speaker 1: runs quite enough. You know, I know he can do it,

1239
01:06:24,600 --> 01:06:26,720
Speaker 1: but I don't think he does it quite enough. So yeah,

1240
01:06:26,760 --> 01:06:28,960
Speaker 1: he's kind of middling and everything. I mean, he's good

1241
01:06:29,240 --> 01:06:31,600
Speaker 1: as a real life quarterback, but kind of middling and everything.

1242
01:06:31,600 --> 01:06:35,040
Speaker 1: And then if the volume isn't there, uh, that could

1243
01:06:35,080 --> 01:06:38,280
Speaker 1: actually be an issue for him because I mean they're

1244
01:06:38,400 --> 01:06:41,160
Speaker 1: you're talking about guys like Kyra going in his range,

1245
01:06:41,680 --> 01:06:43,760
Speaker 1: you know, bo Nicks, and you still got fields going

1246
01:06:43,960 --> 01:06:46,680
Speaker 1: no in some drafts last lasting as long. And Drake

1247
01:06:46,840 --> 01:06:48,760
Speaker 1: May is another guy that can run. You could just

1248
01:06:48,880 --> 01:06:51,600
Speaker 1: wait and get him for almost free. I know you

1249
01:06:51,680 --> 01:06:54,360
Speaker 1: like McCarthy. I mean, there's just so many guys that

1250
01:06:54,440 --> 01:06:58,600
Speaker 1: we'll talk about on part two of this podcast, so

1251
01:06:58,720 --> 01:07:02,320
Speaker 1: look out for that. But yeah, Herbert, I think he is.

1252
01:07:02,640 --> 01:07:05,040
Speaker 1: He's a guy that I don't want much of, especially

1253
01:07:05,400 --> 01:07:07,520
Speaker 1: at QB twelve. I think he's a kind of a

1254
01:07:07,760 --> 01:07:12,560
Speaker 1: mid range to be two at best. So that's gonna

1255
01:07:12,560 --> 01:07:17,520
Speaker 1: wrap it. Part one Top Fantasy Quarterbacks episode of the

1256
01:07:17,640 --> 01:07:21,960
Speaker 1: Fantasy Flex presented by Yahoo Fantasy. Part two will be

1257
01:07:22,280 --> 01:07:26,080
Speaker 1: out coming up, so be sure to check that out

1258
01:07:26,200 --> 01:07:28,720
Speaker 1: in the coming days, and Sean and I will go

1259
01:07:29,480 --> 01:07:32,000
Speaker 1: through the rest of the quarterbacks that we didn't discuss here,

1260
01:07:32,760 --> 01:07:36,600
Speaker 1: and we'll get to running backs, receivers, tight ends over

1261
01:07:36,880 --> 01:07:39,680
Speaker 1: the next few weeks as well, So be sure to

1262
01:07:39,760 --> 01:07:44,120
Speaker 1: smash that subscribe button so you don't miss an episode.

1263
01:07:44,560 --> 01:07:46,560
Speaker 1: Be sure to check out fantasylabs dot com for all

1264
01:07:46,600 --> 01:07:49,360
Speaker 1: of our fantasy football content, and you can download the

1265
01:07:49,440 --> 01:07:53,000
Speaker 1: all new Fantasy Labs app and use promo code flex

1266
01:07:53,080 --> 01:07:56,640
Speaker 1: twenty for twenty dollars off right now. That's fl Ex

1267
01:07:56,880 --> 01:08:03,120
Speaker 1: two zero to save twenty dollars off an NFL sub

1268
01:08:03,320 --> 01:08:06,240
Speaker 1: for the twenty twenty five season. You got not one

1269
01:08:06,320 --> 01:08:09,760
Speaker 1: but two of the industry's top six most accurate season

1270
01:08:09,880 --> 01:08:14,680
Speaker 1: long rankers according to Fantasy Pros over the past three seasons,

1271
01:08:14,760 --> 01:08:18,040
Speaker 1: and Shawn's resume goes back way further than that, people,

1272
01:08:18,160 --> 01:08:21,560
Speaker 1: so be sure to subscribe use code flex twenty for

1273
01:08:21,600 --> 01:08:25,559
Speaker 1: twenty dollars off right now, and don't forget. We're gonna

1274
01:08:25,560 --> 01:08:28,040
Speaker 1: have a live event August twenty three if you're in

1275
01:08:28,439 --> 01:08:32,439
Speaker 1: the Chicago area. We're at Joe's Bar on Weed Street

1276
01:08:32,520 --> 01:08:37,040
Speaker 1: in Chicago. It's free to attend. The RSVP link is

1277
01:08:37,120 --> 01:08:40,599
Speaker 1: in the episode description to go OURSVP and save your

1278
01:08:40,640 --> 01:08:46,559
Speaker 1: spot for that live event presented by Yahoo Fantasy. Define

1279
01:08:46,600 --> 01:08:50,040
Speaker 1: Sean on X at the underscarriage Maker, I'm at Chris Raybam,

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01:08:50,080 --> 01:08:52,080
Speaker 1: We're at those same handles on the free award winning

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01:08:52,520 --> 01:08:57,040
Speaker 1: Action Network app. Big shout out to our sponsor, Yahoo Fantasy,

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01:08:57,200 --> 01:09:02,160
Speaker 1: celebrating twenty eight years fantasy football greatness. So next time,

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Speaker 1: let's get this morning. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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01:09:14,240 --> 01:09:17,040
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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01:09:17,360 --> 01:09:19,960
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred Gambler