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Speaker 2: Jack Divine is founder of the ark And Group and
Speaker 2: is just definitive on the arc of our Cia, away
Speaker 2: from the movies, away from all the different silliness is well,
Speaker 2: and in fact some would say he was actually a
Speaker 2: character taken by Philip Seymour Hoffman long ago, Jack Divine.
Speaker 2: Because of limited time, questions are so important here. My
Speaker 2: memory is our colossal misguests on the intelligence of the
Speaker 2: Soviet Union. Do we have quality intelligence on Iran?
Speaker 3: Well, I hope. So let me put it that way.
Speaker 3: We're at that point where push comes to shop. There's
Speaker 3: no doubt in my mind that we have great technical coverage.
Speaker 3: I also believe we have a force multiplier in Israel.
Speaker 3: Israel has fantastic intelligence collection on Iran, There's no doubt
Speaker 3: about it, and I therefore think that we're well positioned
Speaker 3: to deal with the situation because of that intelligence, and
Speaker 3: they've shared it amply because it's in their interest in
Speaker 3: our interests. So I think we're squaring this one. This
Speaker 3: is not a I don't see it. There are opportunities
Speaker 3: for mistakes on this, for sure, but it won't be
Speaker 3: because they don't have good intelligence.
Speaker 2: There's great discussion of the linkage of the Pentagon to
Speaker 2: the White House. In the White House to the Pentagon.
Speaker 2: Do you perceive a good use of our CIA intelligence
Speaker 2: by President t.
Speaker 3: This is a controversial issue today because Tulsa Gabbertt went
Speaker 3: in March, went down the hill and said that the
Speaker 3: Iranians did not have a nuclear weapon and that was
Speaker 3: three years before they could deliver it. And that was
Speaker 3: raised with President Trump yesterday and he said he's really
Speaker 3: not counting on that information. And so therefore I think
Speaker 3: there is a disconnect. Then I guess I would have
Speaker 3: a cautionary note for political leaders, and that is, if
Speaker 3: you have a choice between the intelligence community that says
Speaker 3: we're going to give you nothing but the truth, and
Speaker 3: you have political leaders and other countries who have a
Speaker 3: vested interest in presenting facts in a particular way, I
Speaker 3: would recommend you stick close to those intelligence estimates. So
Speaker 3: having said that, there are subset issues in this that
Speaker 3: I could touch on, which is, for example, we have
Speaker 3: to be careful and defense of net How's presentation of
Speaker 3: the situation that is not underestimated. You cannot get this
Speaker 3: wrong and say that it's not it's not a dangerous situation.
Speaker 3: And I would add to that that I think we
Speaker 3: spend a lot of time thinking about, oh, they won't
Speaker 3: be able to deliver by a missile, and that's what
Speaker 3: pushes it out a few years, and I think we
Speaker 3: need to step back and realize that's not the only
Speaker 3: way that nuclear weapons can be detonated and can be dangerous.
Speaker 3: So there's an enrichment point, and once it gets that
Speaker 3: Richmond point, then the starting gates open. You have to
Speaker 3: take care of it.
Speaker 4: Jack. If the US does get involved here militarily, how
Speaker 4: do you think the Iranians will respond?
Speaker 3: I would not want to be in the Iranian leadership's position.
Speaker 3: It's like the featherweight fighter getting in with the heavyweight
Speaker 3: champion of the world and have never had a fight.
Speaker 3: And I think that's what you're looking at. And you
Speaker 3: can dance around the ring and jump up in the
Speaker 3: ropes and you're going to get knocked out, carried out,
Speaker 3: of the ring in the first round. How do you
Speaker 3: defend yourself if you have no air defense? I mean,
Speaker 3: if there is no way to prevent your adversary, and
Speaker 3: that would be in this case Israel and ourselves. This
Speaker 3: thing can only end one way, and I think the
Speaker 3: guy tools have a great struggle with it. That is,
Speaker 3: the President United States is saying unconditional surrender that has
Speaker 3: very specific meanings, and I think that's where we are.
Speaker 3: And I think for the Iranians the CounterPunch, they might
Speaker 3: get one in, but all hell will break loose after that.
Speaker 3: They have nothing to stop the US from flattening, and
Speaker 3: the Israel without using nuclear weapons, just flattening. They have
Speaker 3: no defense. So I think they may turn out to
Speaker 3: be a little more prudent than they're hopeful, more prudent
Speaker 3: than their verbiage.
Speaker 5: Jack.
Speaker 4: I guess one of the initial talking points is that,
Speaker 4: I guess the FOURD down nuclear site deeply buried under
Speaker 4: the ground. Does the US have the ordinance to take
Speaker 4: that out?
Speaker 3: All the experts have been practicing this for years. I
Speaker 3: shouldn't say tens of years, but I mean, you're sort
Speaker 3: of over the last decade they've been developing the GBU
Speaker 3: fifty seven and that has the capacity of but not
Speaker 3: a single shot. This is going to take multiple shots
Speaker 3: at four to oh to destroy it. But I think
Speaker 3: we have the capability. Unfortunately, we are the only ones
Speaker 3: that have it, and we only have They have the
Speaker 3: one platform, the B two that can deliver it. So
Speaker 3: I think if I were sitting in Tehran, I would
Speaker 3: say goodbye.
Speaker 5: Four to oh.
Speaker 2: Okay.
Speaker 3: I think that's where we are. It's going and you
Speaker 3: know it's not going to be pretty. I think it's
Speaker 3: the only alternative. I think I've read, and I know
Speaker 3: I've read, but that the Israelis believe that there's other alternatives,
Speaker 3: and if there were, I think we would have said,
Speaker 3: why don't you use them. I think it's either this
Speaker 3: or you let them keep developing nuclear weapons. So I
Speaker 3: think it's we're looking at the endgame here, Jack.
Speaker 2: Very importantly, one time for one more question. We'd love
Speaker 2: to get you on in the coming days and really
Speaker 2: appreciate your public service for over fifty years. The CIA.
Speaker 2: We had on the crown Prince in exile, the son
Speaker 2: of the Shah yesterday this my Global Headlines. Thank you,
Speaker 2: Danny Berger and Lisa Bramwitz for that, What does I
Speaker 2: mean you have talked about a partition of Iran, a
Speaker 2: partition of Iraq. What happens to the greater Persia if
Speaker 2: this all falls apart? Is it every big nation for themselves?
Speaker 3: In some degree? We're in a world where it's every
Speaker 3: nation for itself, and then you try and find some
Speaker 3: to build allies. But let me hit what I think
Speaker 3: is at the core of the shah sons approach and
Speaker 3: not approach the fact that he's on the scene, and
Speaker 3: that is the regime change. You know, the question is
Speaker 3: is Israel going to stop at fourdoh or are they
Speaker 3: going to push for a regime change. This is an
Speaker 3: issue that our policymakers are struggling with today as well.
Speaker 3: I want to be cautionary. I mean, I see the
Speaker 3: wisdom of taking an out for one way or the other.
Speaker 3: In the end, I hope. I wish it hadn't been
Speaker 3: with America, but I've made peace with that regime change.
Speaker 3: And my experience over all those years that you refer
Speaker 3: to is analysts political leaders underestimate how people put up
Speaker 3: with downtrodden conditions to such an extent, and they can't
Speaker 3: believe that, Oh if you're an American, you'd rise up
Speaker 3: in arms. So they overestimate the prospects for regime change.
Speaker 3: And I'm afraid that's where we may be here today.
Speaker 3: I don't see it. There's a lot of angry people
Speaker 3: with the Shaw, not with the show, with the Ayatola,
Speaker 3: but there's no armed group inside the country. There's no
Speaker 3: indication right fourth, there's no split at the very top
Speaker 3: where you can have a palace coupe. So I think
Speaker 3: that's the dangerous warders here that we have to void.
Speaker 2: Jack Divine, thank you so much. Just public service with
Speaker 2: the CoA, the ARC and group for decades.
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Speaker 2: Usually anticipated this day, Michael Darta joins us down from
Speaker 2: ourth capitol. Michael, let me start at the nominal level.
Speaker 2: It probably won't come up in the press conference, but
Speaker 2: is the animal spirit there or in risk of lessening?
Speaker 2: Can we generate with inflation four or even five percent growth?
Speaker 6: Well, Tom, I think we're seeing a little bit of
Speaker 6: slowing around the edges in terms of the nominal economy.
Speaker 6: So if we look at some of the tracking estimates
Speaker 6: for Q two, real final sales to the private sector
Speaker 6: look like they're sub two percent now, and we've had
Speaker 6: just over two years of three percent average growth, and
Speaker 6: so nominal has been up there, you know, five percent plus,
Speaker 6: which is you know, quite strong relative to the average
Speaker 6: of the last business cycle that was closer to four
Speaker 6: and then obviously during the high inflation period twenty twenty
Speaker 6: one twenty twenty two, we have double digit nominal growth.
Speaker 6: So the FED is slowed, not the nominal economy. It's
Speaker 6: brought inflation, you know, pretty close to target, but we
Speaker 6: don't want to go too far. And then you know,
Speaker 6: worry about you know, recessionary risks which have been out there,
Speaker 6: and you know, obviously the economy has divided those concerns
Speaker 6: over the course of the last two years. But there
Speaker 6: is some slowing here. And if nominal is about to
Speaker 6: run sub four percent, FED policy rate probably shouldn't be
Speaker 6: above four.
Speaker 4: So what we're not seeing, Michael, at least not yet,
Speaker 4: is inflation. Is there a scenario where maybe some of
Speaker 4: these tariffs are maybe taking in the margin of certain
Speaker 4: of corporate America versus maybe the pocketbooks of consumers.
Speaker 6: Yeah, that's really been quite a surprise with these benign
Speaker 6: inflation figures over the last few months. So part of
Speaker 6: it could be a little bit of a delay. Part
Speaker 6: of it is that there's a lot of moving parts here.
Speaker 6: Even with the recent geopolitically driven upward pressure and energy prices,
Speaker 6: we're still flatish year over year on crude, industrial metals
Speaker 6: are down year over year. Inflation expectations in the TIPS
Speaker 6: indexed bond market, you really haven't moved at all. They're
Speaker 6: at quite low levels consistent with price stability. So we're
Speaker 6: not seeing a big tariff fallout so far, and that's
Speaker 6: actually quite good news for the FED because I think
Speaker 6: that gives the FLMs more flexibility to ease policy, you know,
Speaker 6: in the event that we do seemore slowing ahead. But
Speaker 6: you're right, I mean, the question is, you know, profit margins, right,
Speaker 6: I mean, equity multiples are not low, so you know,
Speaker 6: we could you know, we're probably not looking at really
Speaker 6: strong earnings growth this year, but markets are really optimistic
Speaker 6: over a multi year horizon that will have pretty good
Speaker 6: earnings growth.
Speaker 2: And you're suggesting that'll be that'll be a disappointing event, right.
Speaker 6: Well, you know, Tom, I'll have to say, I mean
Speaker 6: I was quite skeptical of this, you know, whole AI revolution.
Speaker 6: I thought it was a bit overhyped and over baked.
Speaker 6: But I've kind of changed my view on that. And
Speaker 6: this is just anecdotal, but just through personal use of
Speaker 6: these AI interfaces, I mean, there has been a vast
Speaker 6: and breath taking improvement in what this technology can do,
Speaker 6: you know, whether we're dealing with health and wellness from
Speaker 6: a personal perspective or your favorite macroeconomic modeling. I mean,
Speaker 6: it's it's like having fifty research assistants at your disposal
Speaker 6: and you don't even have to be nice to them.
Speaker 5: So what is exactly just for me, exactly save this?
Speaker 4: Paul Michael, What do you think the FED should say today?
Speaker 4: What should fit Chairman Jpow's message be today?
Speaker 5: Do you think?
Speaker 6: Well, you know, I would love if the Chairman would
Speaker 6: focus on bond market inflation expectations.
Speaker 2: I think those are.
Speaker 6: More important, and some of the survey data is a
Speaker 6: bit divergent. You know, we've seen a lot of upward
Speaker 6: pressure from the U of MISH data, but not so
Speaker 6: much out of the New York Fed. But I really
Speaker 6: believe these indexed bond spreads are the key. And if
Speaker 6: we remember back to last summer, when it looked like
Speaker 6: the labor market was really losing steam in a dramatic fashion,
Speaker 6: those expectations started to tank, but they recovered when the
Speaker 6: FED started to lower policy rates. So the FED has
Speaker 6: just nailed it here. I mean, they've really pulled a
Speaker 6: rabbit out of a hat in terms of raising rates,
Speaker 6: sufficiently holding them there, and then seemingly cutting them just
Speaker 6: at the right time. Even the pause, which some think,
Speaker 6: you know was political based on the timing of the election,
Speaker 6: I think is perfectly justified based on the macro data
Speaker 6: and the behavior of bond market inflation expectations. So I
Speaker 6: would love if Fed Shair Poul would give some additional
Speaker 6: credence there, But I won't be holding my breath for that.
Speaker 6: I think he's going to hold it close to the basket.
Speaker 6: We'll see what these updated projections say, but I'd be
Speaker 6: kind of surprised if the FED was the Fed in
Speaker 6: the in the market expectations were seriously far apart at
Speaker 6: this point. I think they're fairly close.
Speaker 5: Pa.
Speaker 2: I'll get one. We're in here with Michael Darta, but
Speaker 2: I just went to Google Gemini Elboy and I typed
Speaker 2: a linear rational expectations model, which Darta was expert at
Speaker 2: the difference equations of when he was at Wisconsin as well,
Speaker 2: And just like he says, it lays out an incredible
Speaker 2: six paragraph summary including DSGE models. And we have Clarita
Speaker 2: today on the ferryating. I mean, you're right, Michael, it's
Speaker 2: just it's jaw dropping what they're doing.
Speaker 5: Michael.
Speaker 4: Do you think this US economy can have I mean
Speaker 4: it appears that we've a we've had that soft landing.
Speaker 4: The question I think for a lot of people is
Speaker 4: in a world of higher trade tariffs, does that threaten
Speaker 4: that soft landing at all? What's what's your GDP view here?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think we're in a trend growth economy and
Speaker 6: that is by definition of soft landing. But at the margin,
Speaker 6: the risks are probably to the downside here. You know,
Speaker 6: you guys were just talking about the messy real estate
Speaker 6: market and it's been messy for a while. But you
Speaker 6: know the risk with these tariffs is that we're self
Speaker 6: imposing adverse supply shops in an economy that is really
Speaker 6: benefit from a weakening of the supply side, right. I mean,
Speaker 6: you know, early in the pandemic recovery, we were getting
Speaker 6: negative productivity growth for about two years. Over the last
Speaker 6: two years we've seen much better numbers close to or
Speaker 6: above two percent. And that doesn't really even tell the
Speaker 6: AI story yet. That was really just a rebound from
Speaker 6: the pandemic oriented his stores. So you don't want to
Speaker 6: do anything that interferes with the supply side, and the
Speaker 6: terriffs are going to be a headwind there. I think
Speaker 6: the AI story is going to be much more powerful
Speaker 6: over the longer term. So as long as the FED
Speaker 6: doesn't fall drastically behind the curve here, Paul that I
Speaker 6: think you know that you can have good economic outcomes.
Speaker 2: So, Michael dart I got a run in the war.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much on this FED day for joining us.
Speaker 2: Mister Darta is with Roth Capital.
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Speaker 2: This is a joy and hugely anticipated win. Thin is
Speaker 2: out of the Columbia Georgetown brandeis axis and particularly Columbia University.
Speaker 2: He's global out of market strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman.
Speaker 2: But he is definitive on the Pacific RIM. Wait, let's
Speaker 2: just start, doctor Finn with the basics of the Pacific Rim.
Speaker 2: Not not your Burma, but you know, North Singapore and
Speaker 2: on up north. The currencies are screaming. Taiwan dollar stronger,
Speaker 2: sing dollar almost down, New Reason strength as well. It's asymmetric.
Speaker 2: Is this about dollar weakness or is this about Pacific
Speaker 2: RIM success?
Speaker 7: First of all, Tom, Paul, Lisa, thanks for having me.
Speaker 7: It's always a pleasure. I would say there's a lot
Speaker 7: of moving parts. Much of it I think is to
Speaker 7: all weakness, but there's also as you know, there's rumblings
Speaker 7: out of these trade talks that the US would like
Speaker 7: these currencies to be allowed to strengthen. We've heard that
Speaker 7: out of Taiwan, We've heard that out of Korea. It's
Speaker 7: been reported and denied. But you know, I think where
Speaker 7: there's smoke, this fire, so there's it fits into the
Speaker 7: underlying sort of market view that this administration wants a
Speaker 7: weaker dollar pretty much across the board, and it's part
Speaker 7: and parts of.
Speaker 5: The whole trade talks. You know.
Speaker 7: That's not to say, you know, these these countries aren't
Speaker 7: doing well.
Speaker 5: Of course they are.
Speaker 7: There's some issues with obviously with China and supply chains
Speaker 7: and things like that, but overall, the fundamental story remains
Speaker 7: quite solid.
Speaker 5: So these currencies could strengthen, especially.
Speaker 7: If this if this dollar weakness picks up after today's
Speaker 7: what I think will be the expected dubbish hold.
Speaker 4: So when what do you make of this US dollar
Speaker 4: We've seen after the initial sell off and risk assets
Speaker 4: or this year on Liberation Day we saw that, I
Speaker 4: don't know, the US equity markets kind of retrace all
Speaker 4: the selloffs, but we've not seen a rebound in US dollar.
Speaker 4: Is just just a normal ten percent pullback on a
Speaker 4: on a rich currency. Is there something else going on?
Speaker 5: Well, Paul, you know, if you you know, asked me
Speaker 5: at the beginning of the year, you know, I was,
Speaker 5: you know, dollible coming this year.
Speaker 7: We had sort of the economy fire all cylinders, the
Speaker 7: FED hawkish et cetera, et cetera, deregulation, but really to
Speaker 7: your point, liberation.
Speaker 5: Liberation Day was really game changer.
Speaker 7: It was it was I think the realization by the
Speaker 7: market is that the policy making out of this administration
Speaker 7: was unpredictable. Uh and really and to me unexplainable, inexplicable.
Speaker 7: And I think it's been a lot of confidence in
Speaker 7: the dollar.
Speaker 5: Since then.
Speaker 7: We had so much back and forth on terrfs, on
Speaker 7: fiscal policy. It's it's really been, you know, a sort
Speaker 7: of game changer since April second, and then April ninth, Uh,
Speaker 7: the tariff announcements.
Speaker 5: So yeah, I've changed.
Speaker 7: I think the dollars is in for a weaker spell,
Speaker 7: especially again with the US comomy star on SHOs and cracks.
Speaker 7: That's why I think the FED is going to deliver
Speaker 7: a dubbish hole today. Tariff uncertain continues, fiscal uncertain continues,
Speaker 7: so all the elements are there for a week of dollar.
Speaker 2: Is a FED speaks today in the press conference on
Speaker 2: all Doctor Thinn. One of the things here is everything's
Speaker 2: unilateral discussion. The president, let's make a deal. Tim O'Brien
Speaker 2: coming up in a big folks or maybe bilateral and
Speaker 2: all of your academics is it's a multilateral world. Are
Speaker 2: we just going to see them shift their US exports
Speaker 2: through Singapore. Dare I say, through your Burma? I mean,
Speaker 2: are they just going to conduit their exports through other geographies?
Speaker 5: Well, I do you know? That's good question, Tom.
Speaker 7: I do know that the US is an alert for
Speaker 7: giants or sort of re export through Vietnam and sort
Speaker 7: of other proxies.
Speaker 5: It can be done, but it'll be difficult.
Speaker 7: What I think to me is get back to this
Speaker 7: bigger story about the dollars that the US is really
Speaker 7: is pulling inwards. It's becoming they call it America first,
Speaker 7: it's whatever you want to call it. It's isolationists. It's
Speaker 7: leaving a vacuum for other countries. I think China will
Speaker 7: will so exerts a greater influence, especially in the Pacific
Speaker 7: Rim in Southeast Asia. We have eur Zone becoming a
Speaker 7: bit more cohesive and perhaps picking up the ball over
Speaker 7: in the European sphere. So you know, it's a long
Speaker 7: you know this, We could talk about this for hours,
Speaker 7: but in seat of geopolitics, we.
Speaker 5: Could be coming into this sort of multipolar world.
Speaker 7: Which is doll The US really has pulled back and
Speaker 7: allowing others to come into this vacuum. Again, that's part
Speaker 7: and parts of the weeker dollar I think as well.
Speaker 2: Marcus move the yield comes in in two basis points
Speaker 2: four point three six percent. We have economic data and
Speaker 2: housing starts. There was a bit of a positive revision,
Speaker 2: but there's a grim statistic and housing starts. In building
Speaker 2: permits here the survey negative zero point eight percent, round
Speaker 2: it one percent, negative one percent. It came in at
Speaker 2: negative nine point eight percent, found it negative ten percent,
Speaker 2: huge miss and confirmed with building permits as well, which
Speaker 2: were to be flat. The survey was zero point zero
Speaker 2: and they came in negative two percent as well. Claims
Speaker 2: pretty much on track is well. Four week moving average
Speaker 2: lifts up from two hundred and forty one thousand up
Speaker 2: to two hundred and forty five thousand. So there's the
Speaker 2: economic data. Maybe it doesn't matter in a FED day,
Speaker 2: but it's there. And again that we'll be there at
Speaker 2: one point thirty giving you the FED press conference as such, Paul.
Speaker 4: When we saw earlier in the year, when there was
Speaker 4: this vul volatility in the in the US markets, a
Speaker 4: movement of capital over to Europe, particularly equities, people kind
Speaker 4: of buying into these European equities and now we've got
Speaker 4: European indites doing better than US. Is that simply a
Speaker 4: short term trade or is that something more fundamental?
Speaker 5: Do you think? Yeah, Paul, I think, uh, there's a
Speaker 5: million dollar question.
Speaker 7: My gut feelings, it's it's it's a it's a serious
Speaker 7: rotation out of the US. Again, everyone was was long
Speaker 7: US equities dollar at the beginning of this year, but
Speaker 7: since the year began, we've got we had some good
Speaker 7: news out of Europe, the fiscal sort of developments in Germany,
Speaker 7: some improving sentiments in the case out of most of Europe,
Speaker 7: at the same time that the US is starting to
Speaker 7: soften up. So I think it's it's a cyclical shift.
Speaker 7: I wouldn't say it's structural. I think it's too early
Speaker 7: to say, but certainly a cyclical shift shift rotation from
Speaker 7: the out of the US into the into the.
Speaker 5: Europe and other areas.
Speaker 7: And that's reflected in the in the equity market app
Speaker 7: performance as.
Speaker 5: Well as the currency performance.
Speaker 7: A weaker dollar, you know, right now, it's sort of
Speaker 7: sell sell a dollar by everything else. And again I
Speaker 7: don't see anything on the on the survive and change
Speaker 7: that very much, Thank you so much.
Speaker 2: Whin sents with Brown Brothers Harriman.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveiller Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 2: Fosio Paulta Guzman joins right now to say she's with
Speaker 2: Energy Vista. Barely describes her expertise and something we don't
Speaker 2: talk enough about because Paul and I flunk the physics
Speaker 2: of LNG liquefied natural gas. Her research note is so
Speaker 2: valuable we protect the copyright of our guests. Get her
Speaker 2: note from Energy Vista. Leslie thrilled to have you in
Speaker 2: here for a brief at today. What are they thinking about?
Speaker 2: And Cutter They're not worried about the World Cup right now?
Speaker 2: Am I right? They own Arab leng and are they
Speaker 2: at risk because of this war?
Speaker 8: So I think Katari is one of the most vulnerable
Speaker 8: player right now in the region because it depends on
Speaker 8: the strait of hormones to evacuate all its anti shipments.
Speaker 8: That's one second. We had a strike from Israel on
Speaker 8: sasparse number fourteen a few days ago, which is a
Speaker 8: share field between Katar and Iran, although it's the further
Speaker 8: away from Katar, right, and it's a domestic it's a
Speaker 8: field for domestic consumption within Iran. It shows the capabilities
Speaker 8: and the highest you know, we're at the highest place
Speaker 8: in terms of tension for potential infrastructure hit in the region.
Speaker 2: That Morse sat in your chair there, yeah, two days ago.
Speaker 2: I believe it was a giant and geopolitics and analysis
Speaker 2: of this, and he said the media is missing the
Speaker 2: LNG study, the natural gas study briefest now on the
Speaker 2: fragility and the outcome of a busted LNG market if
Speaker 2: this war expands.
Speaker 8: So, Katari is one of the world's largest LNG exporter
Speaker 8: around the world. The US is the first one, Katari
Speaker 8: the second one. Katari is standing most of its gas
Speaker 8: right now to Asia. Eighty percent of its energy goes
Speaker 8: to Asia, twenty five percent to China. So any major
Speaker 8: disruption of Katar is a major heat for the market.
Speaker 8: Less so right now for Europe because since the Hussy
Speaker 8: have been relatilessly attacking shipments in the Red Sea, Katari
Speaker 8: is you know, only maybe exporting one bcm a month
Speaker 8: to Europe, but the basically the disruptions would be mostly
Speaker 8: for Asia, and this is what this would be a
Speaker 8: major heat. I would say that we're in a very
Speaker 8: soft place right now in terms of demand in the
Speaker 8: global gas market. There is ample supply coming online, but
Speaker 8: still you will not you will notice it with pricing.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 8: What I would say is that there are still many
Speaker 8: unknown in this. In the coming days, the oil and
Speaker 8: gas market will brace for further impact in terms of
Speaker 8: shipping disruptions and potential further attacks on energy infrastructure if
Speaker 8: things escalate.
Speaker 4: What are the shipping companies telling you about how they're
Speaker 4: preparing for I mean, God forbid the straight of Her moves,
Speaker 4: there'll be some tension there. But even other shipping lanes
Speaker 4: that are critical to the movement of liquid loquified natural
Speaker 4: gas and crude oil.
Speaker 5: What are they telling you?
Speaker 8: So most of the shipping companies right now are avoiding
Speaker 8: as much as possible the East Mediterranean, the Suiss Gulf,
Speaker 8: the Red Sea. They were already avoiding it, and the
Speaker 8: Persian Gulf because we've seen some infrastructure hits in the
Speaker 8: East Mediterranean. The High Far High Farm refinery was a hit.
Speaker 8: Now the Levayettan field in Israel is shut down as precaution.
Speaker 8: We've seen also, as I was mentioning earlier, some hits
Speaker 8: on other infrastructure. But I would say that so far
Speaker 8: we've seen restrain regarding energy infrastructure. That could change if
Speaker 8: things go south.
Speaker 2: We're running out of time. This is too important a question.
Speaker 2: I believe the President was in Qatar. I believe he
Speaker 2: was shopping a new air force. One. I guess we're
Speaker 2: making nice, We're doing the World Cup, whatever the moment is,
Speaker 2: and Qatar is I guess the path of conversation from
Speaker 2: Tehran to the Western world. What will you listen for
Speaker 2: from Qatar and from Tehran in that communication to the
Speaker 2: Western world.
Speaker 8: So it's just three scenarios right now. One is the
Speaker 8: US joined the fight and want to finish the job
Speaker 8: because both I think the US and Israel understand that
Speaker 8: since October seven, the head of the octopus is Iran
Speaker 8: and nuclear power in Iran would be too dangerous for
Speaker 8: the world. Second is the nuclear talks potentially what Qatar
Speaker 8: would prefer, meaning we go back to the table, we negotiate,
Speaker 8: and it would be a safe the face strategy for
Speaker 8: Iran and say basically the only option to save the
Speaker 8: region maybe now, and third would be total rog going
Speaker 8: rogum and maybe going with nuclear breakout with whatever is
Speaker 8: left of nuclear or going after many assets from the
Speaker 8: US and energy, infrastructure and neighbors.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, really appreciate this. A senior non
Speaker 2: resident Fellow the Center for Strategic in International Studies, lestic
Speaker 2: politic Gosman joins US from Energy Vista.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 2: Well, can Lisa top what she did yesterday on news?
Speaker 4: I it was pretty solid, So she's got a good
Speaker 4: line up here today.
Speaker 2: Oh I like it.
Speaker 5: I like the leads.
Speaker 2: You get a pre email. I don't get a email.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I can approval, please you and Paul brief me
Speaker 4: on the newspapers.
Speaker 9: Okay, we're starting with the Dallas Foy cheerleaders.
Speaker 6: That's how I fall like sid Oh.
Speaker 9: Really, yes, they got a big pay raise. I like
Speaker 9: this story A roughly four hundred percent increase for the
Speaker 9: twenty twenty five season. It was revealed episode seven they
Speaker 9: have the second season of the Netflix docu series. They
Speaker 9: have one about the show. It's called America's Sweethearts Big Hit.
Speaker 9: I actually watched a few episodes out of a full disclosure.
Speaker 9: There wasn't any information about what they were making before
Speaker 9: how much they're going to be paid under the new deal.
Speaker 9: But The New York Times did speak to a former
Speaker 9: cheerleader who said in twenty twenty four, it was her
Speaker 9: fifth year in the squad. She made about fifteen dollars
Speaker 9: an hour, five hundred dollars for each game appearance. So
Speaker 9: sometimes they're saying the mascots make more than the cheerleaders.
Speaker 9: But what's still missing is health insurance. But what they're
Speaker 9: saying is that it's really putting it out there. So now,
Speaker 9: because of this increase, cheerleaders from other teams could be
Speaker 9: set for an inert time job.
Speaker 2: I mean, there's what sixteen games, eighteen games?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know. I think they get paid by
Speaker 4: the game, right, they.
Speaker 9: Get paid by the game and per hour, like.
Speaker 6: Have full time jobs.
Speaker 9: And that's what you see in the series is how
Speaker 9: they're all struggling, like they're working this job, working that job,
Speaker 9: and doing all this stuff just to be a part
Speaker 9: of the art.
Speaker 5: Cheerleader.
Speaker 9: Ever, next you go, all right, since we mentioned that
Speaker 9: Netflix series, I want to stick with Netflix. And this
Speaker 9: is interesting. Is it kind of a sign of what's
Speaker 9: to come? Because Netflix struck a deal with to show
Speaker 9: linear TV for the first time. It's going to add
Speaker 9: live television channels shows from French broadcaster t F one.
Speaker 9: So what French customers will be able to see is
Speaker 9: live feeds, including sports from TF one's channels. They'll be
Speaker 9: able to stream their shows on demand, dramas, reality shows
Speaker 9: like The Voice that they.
Speaker 2: Show the French signal will be free on Netflix.
Speaker 6: Correct.
Speaker 9: There's no word though on how subscription advertising revenues are
Speaker 9: going to be shared between the two companies, or how
Speaker 9: much Netflix if they paid for like an upfront fee
Speaker 9: for the content. But it's kind of a start to
Speaker 9: something interesting.
Speaker 4: Most of the news you had earlier a week or
Speaker 4: so ago that in the May month of May, streaming
Speaker 4: viewership exceeded that a broadcasting cable television in the US.
Speaker 4: So that's the trend right before us.
Speaker 9: So would we see that here, yes you will.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 9: Interesting.
Speaker 2: Interesting.
Speaker 9: And the last one is about private space stations. They
Speaker 9: could become the next travel destination. So instead of going
Speaker 9: globally to France or wherever you want to go, you
Speaker 9: can go to space maybe pretty soon. There are a
Speaker 9: lot of companies looking to build these facilities. Making them
Speaker 9: is pretty expensive, so the Wall Street Journal kind of
Speaker 9: listed it. Some of them, like Axiom spaces Station could
Speaker 9: someday hosts as many as eight people, five different modules
Speaker 9: you can orbit above the Earth. It's going to cost
Speaker 9: them about three billion dollars oh to make.
Speaker 6: And then you have just.
Speaker 9: Besos' Blue Origin their mind a station cord orbital reef
Speaker 9: that could be coming orbital reef. Yes, if you would
Speaker 9: like to stay, NASA says SpaceX is also investigating using
Speaker 9: its starship as a possible low Earth orbit destination too,
Speaker 9: And then they're star Lab. They're back by Voyager technology.
Speaker 9: So it's all these companies that are.
Speaker 5: Running the mode.
Speaker 2: I mean they go up, they don't go up to orbit,
Speaker 2: I mean, excuse me, kind of, it's kind of it's
Speaker 2: exactly right. But now they're going to go into orbit
Speaker 2: on a space station.
Speaker 4: And stay for a vacation vacation.
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's not just tours, of course, it's also you know,
Speaker 9: different astronauts and scientists and research and things like that.
Speaker 9: But it could be open to tourists as well.
Speaker 2: Okay, thank you. I'm just trying to thank a lease
Speaker 2: audition for the Giants. Yeah, you're leading this fall.
Speaker 9: Yep, the Jets or the Jets do have a good
Speaker 9: flight spud.
Speaker 2: There, Lisa Matello, thank you so much. That is the newspapers.
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