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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Jack Divine is founder of the ark And Group and

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Speaker 2: is just definitive on the arc of our Cia, away

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Speaker 2: from the movies, away from all the different silliness is well,

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Speaker 2: and in fact some would say he was actually a

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Speaker 2: character taken by Philip Seymour Hoffman long ago, Jack Divine.

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Speaker 2: Because of limited time, questions are so important here. My

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Speaker 2: memory is our colossal misguests on the intelligence of the

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Speaker 2: Soviet Union. Do we have quality intelligence on Iran?

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Speaker 3: Well, I hope. So let me put it that way.

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Speaker 3: We're at that point where push comes to shop. There's

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Speaker 3: no doubt in my mind that we have great technical coverage.

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Speaker 3: I also believe we have a force multiplier in Israel.

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Speaker 3: Israel has fantastic intelligence collection on Iran, There's no doubt

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Speaker 3: about it, and I therefore think that we're well positioned

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Speaker 3: to deal with the situation because of that intelligence, and

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Speaker 3: they've shared it amply because it's in their interest in

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Speaker 3: our interests. So I think we're squaring this one. This

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Speaker 3: is not a I don't see it. There are opportunities

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Speaker 3: for mistakes on this, for sure, but it won't be

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Speaker 3: because they don't have good intelligence.

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Speaker 2: There's great discussion of the linkage of the Pentagon to

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Speaker 2: the White House. In the White House to the Pentagon.

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Speaker 2: Do you perceive a good use of our CIA intelligence

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Speaker 2: by President t.

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Speaker 3: This is a controversial issue today because Tulsa Gabbertt went

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Speaker 3: in March, went down the hill and said that the

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Speaker 3: Iranians did not have a nuclear weapon and that was

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Speaker 3: three years before they could deliver it. And that was

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Speaker 3: raised with President Trump yesterday and he said he's really

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Speaker 3: not counting on that information. And so therefore I think

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Speaker 3: there is a disconnect. Then I guess I would have

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Speaker 3: a cautionary note for political leaders, and that is, if

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Speaker 3: you have a choice between the intelligence community that says

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Speaker 3: we're going to give you nothing but the truth, and

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Speaker 3: you have political leaders and other countries who have a

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Speaker 3: vested interest in presenting facts in a particular way, I

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Speaker 3: would recommend you stick close to those intelligence estimates. So

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Speaker 3: having said that, there are subset issues in this that

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Speaker 3: I could touch on, which is, for example, we have

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Speaker 3: to be careful and defense of net How's presentation of

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Speaker 3: the situation that is not underestimated. You cannot get this

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Speaker 3: wrong and say that it's not it's not a dangerous situation.

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Speaker 3: And I would add to that that I think we

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Speaker 3: spend a lot of time thinking about, oh, they won't

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Speaker 3: be able to deliver by a missile, and that's what

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Speaker 3: pushes it out a few years, and I think we

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Speaker 3: need to step back and realize that's not the only

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Speaker 3: way that nuclear weapons can be detonated and can be dangerous.

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Speaker 3: So there's an enrichment point, and once it gets that

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Speaker 3: Richmond point, then the starting gates open. You have to

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Speaker 3: take care of it.

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Speaker 4: Jack. If the US does get involved here militarily, how

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Speaker 4: do you think the Iranians will respond?

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Speaker 3: I would not want to be in the Iranian leadership's position.

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Speaker 3: It's like the featherweight fighter getting in with the heavyweight

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Speaker 3: champion of the world and have never had a fight.

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Speaker 3: And I think that's what you're looking at. And you

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Speaker 3: can dance around the ring and jump up in the

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Speaker 3: ropes and you're going to get knocked out, carried out,

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Speaker 3: of the ring in the first round. How do you

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Speaker 3: defend yourself if you have no air defense? I mean,

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Speaker 3: if there is no way to prevent your adversary, and

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Speaker 3: that would be in this case Israel and ourselves. This

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Speaker 3: thing can only end one way, and I think the

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Speaker 3: guy tools have a great struggle with it. That is,

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Speaker 3: the President United States is saying unconditional surrender that has

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Speaker 3: very specific meanings, and I think that's where we are.

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Speaker 3: And I think for the Iranians the CounterPunch, they might

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Speaker 3: get one in, but all hell will break loose after that.

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Speaker 3: They have nothing to stop the US from flattening, and

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Speaker 3: the Israel without using nuclear weapons, just flattening. They have

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Speaker 3: no defense. So I think they may turn out to

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Speaker 3: be a little more prudent than they're hopeful, more prudent

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Speaker 3: than their verbiage.

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Speaker 5: Jack.

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Speaker 4: I guess one of the initial talking points is that,

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Speaker 4: I guess the FOURD down nuclear site deeply buried under

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Speaker 4: the ground. Does the US have the ordinance to take

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Speaker 4: that out?

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Speaker 3: All the experts have been practicing this for years. I

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Speaker 3: shouldn't say tens of years, but I mean, you're sort

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Speaker 3: of over the last decade they've been developing the GBU

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Speaker 3: fifty seven and that has the capacity of but not

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Speaker 3: a single shot. This is going to take multiple shots

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Speaker 3: at four to oh to destroy it. But I think

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Speaker 3: we have the capability. Unfortunately, we are the only ones

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Speaker 3: that have it, and we only have They have the

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Speaker 3: one platform, the B two that can deliver it. So

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Speaker 3: I think if I were sitting in Tehran, I would

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Speaker 3: say goodbye.

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Speaker 5: Four to oh.

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Speaker 2: Okay.

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Speaker 3: I think that's where we are. It's going and you

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Speaker 3: know it's not going to be pretty. I think it's

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Speaker 3: the only alternative. I think I've read, and I know

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Speaker 3: I've read, but that the Israelis believe that there's other alternatives,

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Speaker 3: and if there were, I think we would have said,

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Speaker 3: why don't you use them. I think it's either this

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Speaker 3: or you let them keep developing nuclear weapons. So I

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Speaker 3: think it's we're looking at the endgame here, Jack.

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Speaker 2: Very importantly, one time for one more question. We'd love

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Speaker 2: to get you on in the coming days and really

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Speaker 2: appreciate your public service for over fifty years. The CIA.

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Speaker 2: We had on the crown Prince in exile, the son

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Speaker 2: of the Shah yesterday this my Global Headlines. Thank you,

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Speaker 2: Danny Berger and Lisa Bramwitz for that, What does I

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Speaker 2: mean you have talked about a partition of Iran, a

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Speaker 2: partition of Iraq. What happens to the greater Persia if

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Speaker 2: this all falls apart? Is it every big nation for themselves?

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Speaker 3: In some degree? We're in a world where it's every

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Speaker 3: nation for itself, and then you try and find some

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Speaker 3: to build allies. But let me hit what I think

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Speaker 3: is at the core of the shah sons approach and

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Speaker 3: not approach the fact that he's on the scene, and

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Speaker 3: that is the regime change. You know, the question is

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Speaker 3: is Israel going to stop at fourdoh or are they

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Speaker 3: going to push for a regime change. This is an

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Speaker 3: issue that our policymakers are struggling with today as well.

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Speaker 3: I want to be cautionary. I mean, I see the

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Speaker 3: wisdom of taking an out for one way or the other.

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Speaker 3: In the end, I hope. I wish it hadn't been

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Speaker 3: with America, but I've made peace with that regime change.

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Speaker 3: And my experience over all those years that you refer

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Speaker 3: to is analysts political leaders underestimate how people put up

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Speaker 3: with downtrodden conditions to such an extent, and they can't

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Speaker 3: believe that, Oh if you're an American, you'd rise up

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Speaker 3: in arms. So they overestimate the prospects for regime change.

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Speaker 3: And I'm afraid that's where we may be here today.

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Speaker 3: I don't see it. There's a lot of angry people

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Speaker 3: with the Shaw, not with the show, with the Ayatola,

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Speaker 3: but there's no armed group inside the country. There's no

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Speaker 3: indication right fourth, there's no split at the very top

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Speaker 3: where you can have a palace coupe. So I think

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Speaker 3: that's the dangerous warders here that we have to void.

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Speaker 2: Jack Divine, thank you so much. Just public service with

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Speaker 2: the CoA, the ARC and group for decades.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Usually anticipated this day, Michael Darta joins us down from

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Speaker 2: ourth capitol. Michael, let me start at the nominal level.

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Speaker 2: It probably won't come up in the press conference, but

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Speaker 2: is the animal spirit there or in risk of lessening?

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Speaker 2: Can we generate with inflation four or even five percent growth?

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Speaker 6: Well, Tom, I think we're seeing a little bit of

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Speaker 6: slowing around the edges in terms of the nominal economy.

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Speaker 6: So if we look at some of the tracking estimates

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Speaker 6: for Q two, real final sales to the private sector

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Speaker 6: look like they're sub two percent now, and we've had

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Speaker 6: just over two years of three percent average growth, and

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Speaker 6: so nominal has been up there, you know, five percent plus,

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Speaker 6: which is you know, quite strong relative to the average

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Speaker 6: of the last business cycle that was closer to four

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Speaker 6: and then obviously during the high inflation period twenty twenty

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Speaker 6: one twenty twenty two, we have double digit nominal growth.

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Speaker 6: So the FED is slowed, not the nominal economy. It's

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Speaker 6: brought inflation, you know, pretty close to target, but we

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Speaker 6: don't want to go too far. And then you know,

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Speaker 6: worry about you know, recessionary risks which have been out there,

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Speaker 6: and you know, obviously the economy has divided those concerns

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Speaker 6: over the course of the last two years. But there

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Speaker 6: is some slowing here. And if nominal is about to

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Speaker 6: run sub four percent, FED policy rate probably shouldn't be

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Speaker 6: above four.

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Speaker 4: So what we're not seeing, Michael, at least not yet,

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Speaker 4: is inflation. Is there a scenario where maybe some of

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Speaker 4: these tariffs are maybe taking in the margin of certain

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Speaker 4: of corporate America versus maybe the pocketbooks of consumers.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that's really been quite a surprise with these benign

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Speaker 6: inflation figures over the last few months. So part of

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Speaker 6: it could be a little bit of a delay. Part

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Speaker 6: of it is that there's a lot of moving parts here.

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Speaker 6: Even with the recent geopolitically driven upward pressure and energy prices,

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Speaker 6: we're still flatish year over year on crude, industrial metals

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Speaker 6: are down year over year. Inflation expectations in the TIPS

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Speaker 6: indexed bond market, you really haven't moved at all. They're

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Speaker 6: at quite low levels consistent with price stability. So we're

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Speaker 6: not seeing a big tariff fallout so far, and that's

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Speaker 6: actually quite good news for the FED because I think

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Speaker 6: that gives the FLMs more flexibility to ease policy, you know,

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Speaker 6: in the event that we do seemore slowing ahead. But

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Speaker 6: you're right, I mean, the question is, you know, profit margins, right,

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Speaker 6: I mean, equity multiples are not low, so you know,

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Speaker 6: we could you know, we're probably not looking at really

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Speaker 6: strong earnings growth this year, but markets are really optimistic

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Speaker 6: over a multi year horizon that will have pretty good

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Speaker 6: earnings growth.

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Speaker 2: And you're suggesting that'll be that'll be a disappointing event, right.

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Speaker 6: Well, you know, Tom, I'll have to say, I mean

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Speaker 6: I was quite skeptical of this, you know, whole AI revolution.

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Speaker 6: I thought it was a bit overhyped and over baked.

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Speaker 6: But I've kind of changed my view on that. And

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Speaker 6: this is just anecdotal, but just through personal use of

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Speaker 6: these AI interfaces, I mean, there has been a vast

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Speaker 6: and breath taking improvement in what this technology can do,

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Speaker 6: you know, whether we're dealing with health and wellness from

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Speaker 6: a personal perspective or your favorite macroeconomic modeling. I mean,

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Speaker 6: it's it's like having fifty research assistants at your disposal

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Speaker 6: and you don't even have to be nice to them.

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Speaker 5: So what is exactly just for me, exactly save this?

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Speaker 4: Paul Michael, What do you think the FED should say today?

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Speaker 4: What should fit Chairman Jpow's message be today?

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Speaker 5: Do you think?

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Speaker 6: Well, you know, I would love if the Chairman would

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Speaker 6: focus on bond market inflation expectations.

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Speaker 2: I think those are.

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Speaker 6: More important, and some of the survey data is a

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Speaker 6: bit divergent. You know, we've seen a lot of upward

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Speaker 6: pressure from the U of MISH data, but not so

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Speaker 6: much out of the New York Fed. But I really

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Speaker 6: believe these indexed bond spreads are the key. And if

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Speaker 6: we remember back to last summer, when it looked like

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Speaker 6: the labor market was really losing steam in a dramatic fashion,

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Speaker 6: those expectations started to tank, but they recovered when the

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Speaker 6: FED started to lower policy rates. So the FED has

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Speaker 6: just nailed it here. I mean, they've really pulled a

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Speaker 6: rabbit out of a hat in terms of raising rates,

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Speaker 6: sufficiently holding them there, and then seemingly cutting them just

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Speaker 6: at the right time. Even the pause, which some think,

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Speaker 6: you know was political based on the timing of the election,

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Speaker 6: I think is perfectly justified based on the macro data

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Speaker 6: and the behavior of bond market inflation expectations. So I

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Speaker 6: would love if Fed Shair Poul would give some additional

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Speaker 6: credence there, But I won't be holding my breath for that.

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Speaker 6: I think he's going to hold it close to the basket.

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Speaker 6: We'll see what these updated projections say, but I'd be

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Speaker 6: kind of surprised if the FED was the Fed in

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Speaker 6: the in the market expectations were seriously far apart at

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Speaker 6: this point. I think they're fairly close.

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Speaker 5: Pa.

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Speaker 2: I'll get one. We're in here with Michael Darta, but

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Speaker 2: I just went to Google Gemini Elboy and I typed

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Speaker 2: a linear rational expectations model, which Darta was expert at

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Speaker 2: the difference equations of when he was at Wisconsin as well,

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Speaker 2: And just like he says, it lays out an incredible

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Speaker 2: six paragraph summary including DSGE models. And we have Clarita

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Speaker 2: today on the ferryating. I mean, you're right, Michael, it's

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Speaker 2: just it's jaw dropping what they're doing.

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Speaker 5: Michael.

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Speaker 4: Do you think this US economy can have I mean

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Speaker 4: it appears that we've a we've had that soft landing.

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Speaker 4: The question I think for a lot of people is

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Speaker 4: in a world of higher trade tariffs, does that threaten

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Speaker 4: that soft landing at all? What's what's your GDP view here?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I think we're in a trend growth economy and

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Speaker 6: that is by definition of soft landing. But at the margin,

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Speaker 6: the risks are probably to the downside here. You know,

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Speaker 6: you guys were just talking about the messy real estate

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Speaker 6: market and it's been messy for a while. But you

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Speaker 6: know the risk with these tariffs is that we're self

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Speaker 6: imposing adverse supply shops in an economy that is really

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Speaker 6: benefit from a weakening of the supply side, right. I mean,

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Speaker 6: you know, early in the pandemic recovery, we were getting

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Speaker 6: negative productivity growth for about two years. Over the last

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Speaker 6: two years we've seen much better numbers close to or

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Speaker 6: above two percent. And that doesn't really even tell the

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Speaker 6: AI story yet. That was really just a rebound from

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Speaker 6: the pandemic oriented his stores. So you don't want to

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Speaker 6: do anything that interferes with the supply side, and the

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Speaker 6: terriffs are going to be a headwind there. I think

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Speaker 6: the AI story is going to be much more powerful

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Speaker 6: over the longer term. So as long as the FED

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Speaker 6: doesn't fall drastically behind the curve here, Paul that I

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Speaker 6: think you know that you can have good economic outcomes.

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Speaker 2: So, Michael dart I got a run in the war.

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Speaker 2: Thank you so much on this FED day for joining us.

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Speaker 2: Mister Darta is with Roth Capital.

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Speaker 1: Look, this is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each

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Speaker 1: weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and

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Speaker 1: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

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Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: This is a joy and hugely anticipated win. Thin is

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Speaker 2: out of the Columbia Georgetown brandeis axis and particularly Columbia University.

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Speaker 2: He's global out of market strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman.

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Speaker 2: But he is definitive on the Pacific RIM. Wait, let's

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Speaker 2: just start, doctor Finn with the basics of the Pacific Rim.

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Speaker 2: Not not your Burma, but you know, North Singapore and

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Speaker 2: on up north. The currencies are screaming. Taiwan dollar stronger,

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Speaker 2: sing dollar almost down, New Reason strength as well. It's asymmetric.

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Speaker 2: Is this about dollar weakness or is this about Pacific

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Speaker 2: RIM success?

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Speaker 7: First of all, Tom, Paul, Lisa, thanks for having me.

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Speaker 7: It's always a pleasure. I would say there's a lot

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Speaker 7: of moving parts. Much of it I think is to

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Speaker 7: all weakness, but there's also as you know, there's rumblings

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Speaker 7: out of these trade talks that the US would like

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Speaker 7: these currencies to be allowed to strengthen. We've heard that

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Speaker 7: out of Taiwan, We've heard that out of Korea. It's

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Speaker 7: been reported and denied. But you know, I think where

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Speaker 7: there's smoke, this fire, so there's it fits into the

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Speaker 7: underlying sort of market view that this administration wants a

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Speaker 7: weaker dollar pretty much across the board, and it's part

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Speaker 7: and parts of.

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Speaker 5: The whole trade talks. You know.

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Speaker 7: That's not to say, you know, these these countries aren't

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Speaker 7: doing well.

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Speaker 5: Of course they are.

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Speaker 7: There's some issues with obviously with China and supply chains

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Speaker 7: and things like that, but overall, the fundamental story remains

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Speaker 7: quite solid.

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Speaker 5: So these currencies could strengthen, especially.

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Speaker 7: If this if this dollar weakness picks up after today's

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Speaker 7: what I think will be the expected dubbish hold.

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Speaker 4: So when what do you make of this US dollar

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Speaker 4: We've seen after the initial sell off and risk assets

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Speaker 4: or this year on Liberation Day we saw that, I

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Speaker 4: don't know, the US equity markets kind of retrace all

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Speaker 4: the selloffs, but we've not seen a rebound in US dollar.

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Speaker 4: Is just just a normal ten percent pullback on a

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Speaker 4: on a rich currency. Is there something else going on?

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Speaker 5: Well, Paul, you know, if you you know, asked me

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Speaker 5: at the beginning of the year, you know, I was,

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Speaker 5: you know, dollible coming this year.

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Speaker 7: We had sort of the economy fire all cylinders, the

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Speaker 7: FED hawkish et cetera, et cetera, deregulation, but really to

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Speaker 7: your point, liberation.

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Speaker 5: Liberation Day was really game changer.

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Speaker 7: It was it was I think the realization by the

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Speaker 7: market is that the policy making out of this administration

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Speaker 7: was unpredictable. Uh and really and to me unexplainable, inexplicable.

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Speaker 7: And I think it's been a lot of confidence in

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Speaker 7: the dollar.

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Speaker 5: Since then.

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Speaker 7: We had so much back and forth on terrfs, on

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Speaker 7: fiscal policy. It's it's really been, you know, a sort

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Speaker 7: of game changer since April second, and then April ninth, Uh,

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Speaker 7: the tariff announcements.

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Speaker 5: So yeah, I've changed.

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Speaker 7: I think the dollars is in for a weaker spell,

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Speaker 7: especially again with the US comomy star on SHOs and cracks.

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Speaker 7: That's why I think the FED is going to deliver

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Speaker 7: a dubbish hole today. Tariff uncertain continues, fiscal uncertain continues,

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Speaker 7: so all the elements are there for a week of dollar.

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Speaker 2: Is a FED speaks today in the press conference on

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Speaker 2: all Doctor Thinn. One of the things here is everything's

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Speaker 2: unilateral discussion. The president, let's make a deal. Tim O'Brien

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Speaker 2: coming up in a big folks or maybe bilateral and

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Speaker 2: all of your academics is it's a multilateral world. Are

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Speaker 2: we just going to see them shift their US exports

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Speaker 2: through Singapore. Dare I say, through your Burma? I mean,

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Speaker 2: are they just going to conduit their exports through other geographies?

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Speaker 5: Well, I do you know? That's good question, Tom.

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Speaker 7: I do know that the US is an alert for

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Speaker 7: giants or sort of re export through Vietnam and sort

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Speaker 7: of other proxies.

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Speaker 5: It can be done, but it'll be difficult.

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Speaker 7: What I think to me is get back to this

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Speaker 7: bigger story about the dollars that the US is really

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Speaker 7: is pulling inwards. It's becoming they call it America first,

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Speaker 7: it's whatever you want to call it. It's isolationists. It's

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Speaker 7: leaving a vacuum for other countries. I think China will

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Speaker 7: will so exerts a greater influence, especially in the Pacific

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Speaker 7: Rim in Southeast Asia. We have eur Zone becoming a

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Speaker 7: bit more cohesive and perhaps picking up the ball over

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Speaker 7: in the European sphere. So you know, it's a long

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Speaker 7: you know this, We could talk about this for hours,

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Speaker 7: but in seat of geopolitics, we.

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Speaker 5: Could be coming into this sort of multipolar world.

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Speaker 7: Which is doll The US really has pulled back and

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Speaker 7: allowing others to come into this vacuum. Again, that's part

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Speaker 7: and parts of the weeker dollar I think as well.

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Speaker 2: Marcus move the yield comes in in two basis points

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Speaker 2: four point three six percent. We have economic data and

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Speaker 2: housing starts. There was a bit of a positive revision,

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Speaker 2: but there's a grim statistic and housing starts. In building

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Speaker 2: permits here the survey negative zero point eight percent, round

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Speaker 2: it one percent, negative one percent. It came in at

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Speaker 2: negative nine point eight percent, found it negative ten percent,

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Speaker 2: huge miss and confirmed with building permits as well, which

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Speaker 2: were to be flat. The survey was zero point zero

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Speaker 2: and they came in negative two percent as well. Claims

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Speaker 2: pretty much on track is well. Four week moving average

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Speaker 2: lifts up from two hundred and forty one thousand up

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Speaker 2: to two hundred and forty five thousand. So there's the

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Speaker 2: economic data. Maybe it doesn't matter in a FED day,

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Speaker 2: but it's there. And again that we'll be there at

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Speaker 2: one point thirty giving you the FED press conference as such, Paul.

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Speaker 4: When we saw earlier in the year, when there was

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Speaker 4: this vul volatility in the in the US markets, a

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Speaker 4: movement of capital over to Europe, particularly equities, people kind

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Speaker 4: of buying into these European equities and now we've got

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Speaker 4: European indites doing better than US. Is that simply a

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Speaker 4: short term trade or is that something more fundamental?

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Speaker 5: Do you think? Yeah, Paul, I think, uh, there's a

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Speaker 5: million dollar question.

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Speaker 7: My gut feelings, it's it's it's a it's a serious

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Speaker 7: rotation out of the US. Again, everyone was was long

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Speaker 7: US equities dollar at the beginning of this year, but

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Speaker 7: since the year began, we've got we had some good

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Speaker 7: news out of Europe, the fiscal sort of developments in Germany,

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Speaker 7: some improving sentiments in the case out of most of Europe,

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Speaker 7: at the same time that the US is starting to

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Speaker 7: soften up. So I think it's it's a cyclical shift.

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Speaker 7: I wouldn't say it's structural. I think it's too early

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Speaker 7: to say, but certainly a cyclical shift shift rotation from

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Speaker 7: the out of the US into the into the.

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Speaker 5: Europe and other areas.

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Speaker 7: And that's reflected in the in the equity market app

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Speaker 7: performance as.

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Speaker 5: Well as the currency performance.

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Speaker 7: A weaker dollar, you know, right now, it's sort of

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Speaker 7: sell sell a dollar by everything else. And again I

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Speaker 7: don't see anything on the on the survive and change

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Speaker 7: that very much, Thank you so much.

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Speaker 2: Whin sents with Brown Brothers Harriman.

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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveiller Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us

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Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 2: Fosio Paulta Guzman joins right now to say she's with

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Speaker 2: Energy Vista. Barely describes her expertise and something we don't

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Speaker 2: talk enough about because Paul and I flunk the physics

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Speaker 2: of LNG liquefied natural gas. Her research note is so

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Speaker 2: valuable we protect the copyright of our guests. Get her

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Speaker 2: note from Energy Vista. Leslie thrilled to have you in

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Speaker 2: here for a brief at today. What are they thinking about?

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Speaker 2: And Cutter They're not worried about the World Cup right now?

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Speaker 2: Am I right? They own Arab leng and are they

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Speaker 2: at risk because of this war?

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Speaker 8: So I think Katari is one of the most vulnerable

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Speaker 8: player right now in the region because it depends on

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Speaker 8: the strait of hormones to evacuate all its anti shipments.

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Speaker 8: That's one second. We had a strike from Israel on

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Speaker 8: sasparse number fourteen a few days ago, which is a

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Speaker 8: share field between Katar and Iran, although it's the further

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Speaker 8: away from Katar, right, and it's a domestic it's a

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Speaker 8: field for domestic consumption within Iran. It shows the capabilities

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Speaker 8: and the highest you know, we're at the highest place

436
00:24:25,040 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 8: in terms of tension for potential infrastructure hit in the region.

437
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 2: That Morse sat in your chair there, yeah, two days ago.

438
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 2: I believe it was a giant and geopolitics and analysis

439
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:39,160
Speaker 2: of this, and he said the media is missing the

440
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 2: LNG study, the natural gas study briefest now on the

441
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 2: fragility and the outcome of a busted LNG market if

442
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 2: this war expands.

443
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 8: So, Katari is one of the world's largest LNG exporter

444
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 8: around the world. The US is the first one, Katari

445
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 8: the second one. Katari is standing most of its gas

446
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 8: right now to Asia. Eighty percent of its energy goes

447
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 8: to Asia, twenty five percent to China. So any major

448
00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:14,159
Speaker 8: disruption of Katar is a major heat for the market.

449
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 8: Less so right now for Europe because since the Hussy

450
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 8: have been relatilessly attacking shipments in the Red Sea, Katari

451
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:30,960
Speaker 8: is you know, only maybe exporting one bcm a month

452
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:36,960
Speaker 8: to Europe, but the basically the disruptions would be mostly

453
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:40,359
Speaker 8: for Asia, and this is what this would be a

454
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:44,400
Speaker 8: major heat. I would say that we're in a very

455
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 8: soft place right now in terms of demand in the

456
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:50,359
Speaker 8: global gas market. There is ample supply coming online, but

457
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 8: still you will not you will notice it with pricing.

458
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 5: You know.

459
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 8: What I would say is that there are still many

460
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 8: unknown in this. In the coming days, the oil and

461
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 8: gas market will brace for further impact in terms of

462
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 8: shipping disruptions and potential further attacks on energy infrastructure if

463
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 8: things escalate.

464
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 4: What are the shipping companies telling you about how they're

465
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 4: preparing for I mean, God forbid the straight of Her moves,

466
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,439
Speaker 4: there'll be some tension there. But even other shipping lanes

467
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 4: that are critical to the movement of liquid loquified natural

468
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 4: gas and crude oil.

469
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 5: What are they telling you?

470
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 8: So most of the shipping companies right now are avoiding

471
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:41,199
Speaker 8: as much as possible the East Mediterranean, the Suiss Gulf,

472
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 8: the Red Sea. They were already avoiding it, and the

473
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:51,679
Speaker 8: Persian Gulf because we've seen some infrastructure hits in the

474
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 8: East Mediterranean. The High Far High Farm refinery was a hit.

475
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:02,880
Speaker 8: Now the Levayettan field in Israel is shut down as precaution.

476
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:07,639
Speaker 8: We've seen also, as I was mentioning earlier, some hits

477
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 8: on other infrastructure. But I would say that so far

478
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 8: we've seen restrain regarding energy infrastructure. That could change if

479
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 8: things go south.

480
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 2: We're running out of time. This is too important a question.

481
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 2: I believe the President was in Qatar. I believe he

482
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,720
Speaker 2: was shopping a new air force. One. I guess we're

483
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 2: making nice, We're doing the World Cup, whatever the moment is,

484
00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 2: and Qatar is I guess the path of conversation from

485
00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 2: Tehran to the Western world. What will you listen for

486
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:42,679
Speaker 2: from Qatar and from Tehran in that communication to the

487
00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 2: Western world.

488
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 8: So it's just three scenarios right now. One is the

489
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,880
Speaker 8: US joined the fight and want to finish the job

490
00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:55,560
Speaker 8: because both I think the US and Israel understand that

491
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 8: since October seven, the head of the octopus is Iran

492
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 8: and nuclear power in Iran would be too dangerous for

493
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 8: the world. Second is the nuclear talks potentially what Qatar

494
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 8: would prefer, meaning we go back to the table, we negotiate,

495
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:11,919
Speaker 8: and it would be a safe the face strategy for

496
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 8: Iran and say basically the only option to save the

497
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:20,359
Speaker 8: region maybe now, and third would be total rog going

498
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 8: rogum and maybe going with nuclear breakout with whatever is

499
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,159
Speaker 8: left of nuclear or going after many assets from the

500
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,600
Speaker 8: US and energy, infrastructure and neighbors.

501
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, really appreciate this. A senior non

502
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:40,160
Speaker 2: resident Fellow the Center for Strategic in International Studies, lestic

503
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 2: politic Gosman joins US from Energy Vista.

504
00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,959
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

505
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:50,040
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android

506
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

507
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

508
00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

509
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 2: Well, can Lisa top what she did yesterday on news?

510
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 4: I it was pretty solid, So she's got a good

511
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 4: line up here today.

512
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 2: Oh I like it.

513
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 5: I like the leads.

514
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 2: You get a pre email. I don't get a email.

515
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, I can approval, please you and Paul brief me

516
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:15,040
Speaker 4: on the newspapers.

517
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 9: Okay, we're starting with the Dallas Foy cheerleaders.

518
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 6: That's how I fall like sid Oh.

519
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,640
Speaker 9: Really, yes, they got a big pay raise. I like

520
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 9: this story A roughly four hundred percent increase for the

521
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 9: twenty twenty five season. It was revealed episode seven they

522
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 9: have the second season of the Netflix docu series. They

523
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 9: have one about the show. It's called America's Sweethearts Big Hit.

524
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:38,840
Speaker 9: I actually watched a few episodes out of a full disclosure.

525
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 9: There wasn't any information about what they were making before

526
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 9: how much they're going to be paid under the new deal.

527
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 9: But The New York Times did speak to a former

528
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 9: cheerleader who said in twenty twenty four, it was her

529
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 9: fifth year in the squad. She made about fifteen dollars

530
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 9: an hour, five hundred dollars for each game appearance. So

531
00:29:56,720 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 9: sometimes they're saying the mascots make more than the cheerleaders.

532
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 9: But what's still missing is health insurance. But what they're

533
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 9: saying is that it's really putting it out there. So now,

534
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 9: because of this increase, cheerleaders from other teams could be

535
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 9: set for an inert time job.

536
00:30:10,520 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 2: I mean, there's what sixteen games, eighteen games?

537
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know. I think they get paid by

538
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 4: the game, right, they.

539
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 9: Get paid by the game and per hour, like.

540
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 6: Have full time jobs.

541
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 9: And that's what you see in the series is how

542
00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,440
Speaker 9: they're all struggling, like they're working this job, working that job,

543
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:28,200
Speaker 9: and doing all this stuff just to be a part

544
00:30:28,680 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 9: of the art.

545
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 5: Cheerleader.

546
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 9: Ever, next you go, all right, since we mentioned that

547
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 9: Netflix series, I want to stick with Netflix. And this

548
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 9: is interesting. Is it kind of a sign of what's

549
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 9: to come? Because Netflix struck a deal with to show

550
00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 9: linear TV for the first time. It's going to add

551
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 9: live television channels shows from French broadcaster t F one.

552
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 9: So what French customers will be able to see is

553
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 9: live feeds, including sports from TF one's channels. They'll be

554
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 9: able to stream their shows on demand, dramas, reality shows

555
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 9: like The Voice that they.

556
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 2: Show the French signal will be free on Netflix.

557
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 6: Correct.

558
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 9: There's no word though on how subscription advertising revenues are

559
00:31:14,600 --> 00:31:17,240
Speaker 9: going to be shared between the two companies, or how

560
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 9: much Netflix if they paid for like an upfront fee

561
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 9: for the content. But it's kind of a start to

562
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 9: something interesting.

563
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 4: Most of the news you had earlier a week or

564
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 4: so ago that in the May month of May, streaming

565
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 4: viewership exceeded that a broadcasting cable television in the US.

566
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 4: So that's the trend right before us.

567
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 9: So would we see that here, yes you will.

568
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 1: Yeah.

569
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 9: Interesting.

570
00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 2: Interesting.

571
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 9: And the last one is about private space stations. They

572
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 9: could become the next travel destination. So instead of going

573
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 9: globally to France or wherever you want to go, you

574
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 9: can go to space maybe pretty soon. There are a

575
00:31:54,120 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 9: lot of companies looking to build these facilities. Making them

576
00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 9: is pretty expensive, so the Wall Street Journal kind of

577
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 9: listed it. Some of them, like Axiom spaces Station could

578
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:06,240
Speaker 9: someday hosts as many as eight people, five different modules

579
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 9: you can orbit above the Earth. It's going to cost

580
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 9: them about three billion dollars oh to make.

581
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 6: And then you have just.

582
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 9: Besos' Blue Origin their mind a station cord orbital reef

583
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 9: that could be coming orbital reef. Yes, if you would

584
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 9: like to stay, NASA says SpaceX is also investigating using

585
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 9: its starship as a possible low Earth orbit destination too,

586
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 9: And then they're star Lab. They're back by Voyager technology.

587
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 9: So it's all these companies that are.

588
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 5: Running the mode.

589
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 2: I mean they go up, they don't go up to orbit,

590
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 2: I mean, excuse me, kind of, it's kind of it's

591
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 2: exactly right. But now they're going to go into orbit

592
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 2: on a space station.

593
00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 4: And stay for a vacation vacation.

594
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's not just tours, of course, it's also you know,

595
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 9: different astronauts and scientists and research and things like that.

596
00:32:51,080 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 9: But it could be open to tourists as well.

597
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 2: Okay, thank you. I'm just trying to thank a lease

598
00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 2: audition for the Giants. Yeah, you're leading this fall.

599
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 9: Yep, the Jets or the Jets do have a good

600
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 9: flight spud.

601
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 2: There, Lisa Matello, thank you so much. That is the newspapers.

602
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

603
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

604
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:22,600
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

605
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

606
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

607
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:32,000
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal