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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene. Along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jay Leye. We bring

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Speaker 1: you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and

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Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance, an Apple podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: dot Com and of course on the Bloomberg Terminal. Tony

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Speaker 1: presents you joining us now markets stryingagist and portfolio manager

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Speaker 1: at Pimco. Tony, this cyclist moving so quickly, that's the story,

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Speaker 1: the epicenter of your round. Look with you in the

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Speaker 1: team right now, can you just walk us through how

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Speaker 1: you thinking about the world around us at the moment? Well,

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Speaker 1: we we When we talk like to talk about the

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Speaker 1: Yiel curve and Yel curve movement speaks this idea of

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Speaker 1: a fast moving cycle. Does seem like the economic cycle

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Speaker 1: is moving at warp speed. Think about it. We're probably

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Speaker 1: at mid cycle, meaning look at the unemployment rate. Fo

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Speaker 1: what is a late cycle condition. Of course, a nonemployer

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Speaker 1: rate that's lower, and that lower rate could be achieved

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Speaker 1: the full employment next year. So that's a fast moving cycle.

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Speaker 1: In fact, the Federal Reserve is projecting that the unemployment

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Speaker 1: rate will be in the mid threes by the end

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Speaker 1: of next year. So for investors, it's important to be

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Speaker 1: on your toes. It's the simple way you're saying. It's

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Speaker 1: important to be active with the portfolio management, to be

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Speaker 1: thinking more about security selection a region, regional selections, etcetera, uh, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: But then it is a fast mood recycle. One final

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Speaker 1: note that the gield curve again, it's it has flattened recently,

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Speaker 1: and that's something that happens later in the cycle because

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve is raising the short term rate, which

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Speaker 1: pushes up it yield relative to the long term rate flattening.

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Speaker 1: That's where I want to go to Ston spread this morning.

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Speaker 1: Eighteen basis points, Tony. Where it is a two year

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Speaker 1: yield that matters to you? Were at zero point four

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Speaker 1: four percent? Just you're just in your mind, Tony. Where's

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Speaker 1: the two year yield a tip point or a critical point?

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Speaker 1: For Chris Enzi, Well, the two year relative to other

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Speaker 1: yields matters a lot, and it's just that the two

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Speaker 1: year will tell us about the two year window. And

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Speaker 1: we know that the markets looking at shorter term interest

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Speaker 1: rates and forward interest rates like Euro dollar futures is

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Speaker 1: projecting at the Federal Serve will increase its policy rates

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Speaker 1: sometime next year, perhaps as early as June. The markets

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Speaker 1: penning in several interest rate types. But the other these

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Speaker 1: two extraordinary things about the two year to ten years spread.

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Speaker 1: One is the fact that the spread started to flatten

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Speaker 1: earlier in the cycle than we have seen since the

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Speaker 1: nineteen eighties. And then in the last three cycles, the

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Speaker 1: last three recessions, the spread between the two and the

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Speaker 1: tenure no was is why these three basis points. In

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Speaker 1: other words, the markets were patient about the idea of

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. It thought that industrate highs

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Speaker 1: were somewhere on the distant horizon, and so long term

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Speaker 1: yields had stayed high. Um But now so this this

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Speaker 1: is the peak. This time was one fifty, so it's

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Speaker 1: half the level of the previous cycles. Was to cut

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Speaker 1: to the chase. The second part of the extraordinary part

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Speaker 1: of about the yield curve two cents spread is that

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Speaker 1: the tenure yield it's projected to be low, and on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg of function through new Bloomberg uses f w c

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Speaker 1: M it shows forward interest rates and you see the

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Speaker 1: market is saying that there's a benign story to evolved

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Speaker 1: unfold over time, that interest rates probably won't get up

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Speaker 1: two and a half presented as far out in these forewers,

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Speaker 1: as I look at the table calling it ten years

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Speaker 1: plus well but tony just to sort of tie this

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Speaker 1: all together, then what is the message from the yield curve?

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Speaker 1: Is it that the market that the economy can't necessarily

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Speaker 1: handle too much tightening from central banks? Or is it

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Speaker 1: just that the margin is going to naturally be narrower

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Speaker 1: because of this ceiling on longer term yields? He said,

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Speaker 1: those are probably the conclusions that most would draw from

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Speaker 1: it now. But perhaps forward interest rates are wrong. Perhaps

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Speaker 1: the market, the consensus and that's uh embedded in these

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Speaker 1: forward rates is wrong and thinking that the twenty tens

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Speaker 1: uh it will be uh repeated in the twenties. But

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Speaker 1: the twenty tents is probably the wrong analog for the twenties.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot going on in pimco's secular outlook. We

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Speaker 1: talk about speak to transformations, for example, becoming more digital,

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Speaker 1: more inclusive, more green. Those are the three major transformations

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Speaker 1: we see. All those things could We're not saying they

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Speaker 1: will result in faster growth, and simply doing the math,

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Speaker 1: if if economic growth is four percent, as the FED

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Speaker 1: projects next year and PIMCO projects as well, then looking

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Speaker 1: at the next five years, even if growth is two

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Speaker 1: percent of subsequent four we'll still have a rate that's

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Speaker 1: about two and a half. So that would be a

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Speaker 1: lot better than the twenty tens, simply just by that math.

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Speaker 1: And so it's possible the growth is faster and these

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Speaker 1: these forwards are wrong, and therefore race will go high.

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Speaker 1: We're not suggesting that race will go materially higher. In fact,

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Speaker 1: we would say we may turn to certain old normal conditions,

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Speaker 1: but with new neutral characteristics, which is to say that, yes, Lisa,

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Speaker 1: that the battles are can't raise its interest rate too

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Speaker 1: much because of deadloads and certain other factors. Tony, we're

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Speaker 1: out of time. Haven't even got the time to plug

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Speaker 1: your book. Gotta let you go, Tony CRISCENTI, thank you.

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Speaker 1: Gonna catch up as a white right now. This is

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Speaker 1: an incredibly important interview for two thousand twenty two, and

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Speaker 1: indeed two thousand us on fired again. The bears have

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Speaker 1: been vanquished here, no question about that. But a recurring

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Speaker 1: theme that we have on surveillance is look to Asia

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Speaker 1: and look to the true growth there. Gabriela Santos with

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Speaker 1: JP Morgan joins us their global market strategist. Gabriel, I

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Speaker 1: love how your essay dovetails into what I'm seeing in

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Speaker 1: the new Foreign Affairs magazine, which is China. And you

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Speaker 1: define a new China. What is the new China? That's right, Tom,

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Speaker 1: And in a lot of our conversations with investors, China

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Speaker 1: keeps coming up time and time and again as really

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Speaker 1: an area of growth in portfolios, and I think it's

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Speaker 1: much more about a conversation about Chinese markets more so

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Speaker 1: than than China's a comedy going forward. I see the

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Speaker 1: new China really being about one that stresses the quality

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Speaker 1: over the quantity of growth um that also prioritizes other

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Speaker 1: objectives in addition to growth alone, such as reducing an

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Speaker 1: equality and energy transition, a development of capital markets, and

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Speaker 1: also in China that has new areas of emphasis. So

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Speaker 1: this year has been all about the areas of pressure

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Speaker 1: in the new China, but there are also areas of

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Speaker 1: emphasis like domestic consumption, technological infrastructure, and the energy transition.

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Speaker 1: And it's interesting our investors still believe China's investible are

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Speaker 1: looking at this point in time as an opportunity to

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Speaker 1: yield that allocation to China over time. Is there somewhat

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Speaker 1: capitalism or at least their experiment. Is it endogenous more

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Speaker 1: so to China, or does it readound out across the

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Speaker 1: Pacific Rim and all of Asia. I think we do

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Speaker 1: have to remember China has a very particular political and

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Speaker 1: economic system, and we see that at play this year.

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Speaker 1: When China does decide to pivot and to do reforms

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Speaker 1: and regulations, it does so extremely quickly, and that is

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Speaker 1: a feature of China. It does lead to these moments

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Speaker 1: of volatility. We see these thirty plus percentage corrections every

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Speaker 1: three years or so in China. It's a feature of

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Speaker 1: investing there. It does come with higher volatility, about double

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Speaker 1: the volatility for Chinese equities versus the S and P five,

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Speaker 1: But you do get other benefits. You get the potential

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Speaker 1: for higher revenue growth and these new sectors of emphasis,

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Speaker 1: and you get extremely good diversification benefits. It's working against

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Speaker 1: you this year, China's down eleven percent while E m

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Speaker 1: X China is up ten percent, but it can also

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Speaker 1: work in your favor, like it did last year. So

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Speaker 1: net net, we still find it helps to boost risk

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Speaker 1: adjusted returns and that's very unique to the China onshore market.

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Speaker 1: Real are you concerned it all about the political ramifications

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Speaker 1: in the United States toward investing in China. The idea

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Speaker 1: here that there is a changed relationship between the two

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Speaker 1: nations and that if companies or even investors move into China,

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Speaker 1: they could be susceptible to risk at home in terms

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Speaker 1: of regulation. So we we do see in surveys in

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Speaker 1: the US as well as actually in a lot of

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Speaker 1: countries around the world that's increased in unfavorable opinions towards China.

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Speaker 1: Um and I think that's honestly a feature of the

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Speaker 1: next century, this competition between China and the rest of

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Speaker 1: the world. Well, we talk to our investors about is

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Speaker 1: that whatever you may think or or not about China

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Speaker 1: and it's political system, you can't ignore it. Uh. You

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Speaker 1: can't ignore it in terms of the size of its economy,

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Speaker 1: the size of its markets, with the second largest equity

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Speaker 1: and bond markets, um and you also can't ignore it

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Speaker 1: in terms of the risk adjusted benefits it can provide portfolio.

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Speaker 1: So maybe an investor decides that investing in China is

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Speaker 1: not for them, But I think as a fiduciary, investors

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Speaker 1: need to prove that they thought out the benefits that

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Speaker 1: they're leaving on the table, and that they've well documented

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Speaker 1: the reasons why. Meanwhile, graby Ella, the question of what

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Speaker 1: happens in China directly bleeds into the supply chain disruptions

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Speaker 1: that we continue to see. How are you sort of

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Speaker 1: engaging the activity level there with when we'll start to

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Speaker 1: see some of the inflationary pressures from supply chain disruptions

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Speaker 1: perhaps start to abate a little bit more So, we've

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Speaker 1: clearly seen a deceleration in China in the third quarter

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Speaker 1: four point four point nine percent GDP down from seven

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Speaker 1: point nine. That deceleration can continue a bit longer in

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Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. Part of it is re lated to

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Speaker 1: the pandemic. China is the only country that continues with

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Speaker 1: this zero tolerance approach to COVID, so localized restrictions are

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Speaker 1: still going on in China, and that can affect up

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Speaker 1: some production and some consumption of services. But more than that,

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Speaker 1: I think we're learning that this deceleration in China is

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Speaker 1: a feature, not a bug, of the new China. It

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Speaker 1: is about lower quantity growth much more about quality. So structurally,

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Speaker 1: we'll continue to see a decline in things like property, infrastructure,

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Speaker 1: low end manufacturing, energy intensive industry. The floor on Chinese

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Speaker 1: growth is much much lower, and I think that's something

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Speaker 1: that investors need to internalize and adjust lower their expectations

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Speaker 1: and then we can move on and focus on the opportunities.

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Speaker 1: Gabrielle Santos, thank you so much. With JP Morgan this morning,

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Speaker 1: let's go down and look at TS vodka. We can

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Speaker 1: do that in Texas. We do that with Regina Mayor

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Speaker 1: joining us right now, boy out of Energy at KPMG

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Speaker 1: in a true force at Rice University in the Baker Center.

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Speaker 1: What are you open question? I rarely do this, Regina,

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Speaker 1: but you're so good, I'm going to ask it. What

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Speaker 1: is your single point of study on a hydrocarbonage in America?

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Speaker 1: What's the mystery for you into two thousand twenty two. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so let me try to boil it down, because I

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Speaker 1: think what we're suffering from is a systematic and prolonged

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Speaker 1: under investment in these long cycle projects. That is what

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Speaker 1: it takes to bring well and gas to the market.

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Speaker 1: We see demand continuing to grow the I e. A

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Speaker 1: said it will be sion barrels per day uh and

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Speaker 1: and others are saying it will be pre pandemic levels.

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Speaker 1: We have tightening supply because countries are starting to worry

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Speaker 1: about energy security, and countries you can are buying cargoes

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Speaker 1: almost at any cost. So that's driving up all of

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Speaker 1: that against the backdrop of a expectation of a cold

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Speaker 1: winner hotter summers. So we have a crude oil up

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Speaker 1: six over the last six months, natural gas over a

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Speaker 1: lot six months, and I think it gets worse before

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Speaker 1: it gets better. That's what I'm thinking about. Well said.

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Speaker 1: The reality here is for the last twenty years on

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Speaker 1: a hydrocarbons technology has saved us. Do you and the

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Speaker 1: engineers at RICE and KPMG, do you assume there is

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Speaker 1: new and improving technology or is this as good as

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Speaker 1: it gets as we produce oil. I think technology will

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Speaker 1: always continue to surprise us, and I never doubt the

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Speaker 1: ingenuity of the industry and in particular the shale players.

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Speaker 1: But what we've had is investors driving different kinds of behavior,

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Speaker 1: and so your public shale players are sticking to the

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Speaker 1: narrative of we're gonna delever the balance sheet. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: return strong dividends to our investor base. An OPEC plus,

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Speaker 1: which can release more supply, is enjoying this eight plus

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Speaker 1: dollar rally to rebuild their government coffers because they've been

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Speaker 1: suffering for budget deficits over the last eighteen months during

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Speaker 1: the pandemic. So yes, technology can definitely play a role,

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Speaker 1: but not in the short squeeze where we're in today, Regina.

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Speaker 1: This is definitely a global story, but it's also a

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Speaker 1: very US story, in particular Cushing, Oklahoma. I was taking

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Speaker 1: a look at a bunch of the stories about how

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Speaker 1: much of a supply shortage there is there, how much

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Speaker 1: the inventories have gotten depleted, and how that is distorting

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Speaker 1: markets dramatically. How much is that driving a lot of

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Speaker 1: the rally that we're seeing frankly globally, but driven from

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Speaker 1: the w t I crewed. I think w c I

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Speaker 1: definitely is playing a key role because everyone's watching what

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Speaker 1: the shield players are doing. But I think there's a

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Speaker 1: Cushing story in all the global markets. You know, we

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Speaker 1: saw in the gas prices spike ten times ten x

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Speaker 1: in the UK not not too long ago. There's again

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Speaker 1: an energy security story. There were of natural gas supplies

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Speaker 1: into the European continent come from Russia. So when we

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Speaker 1: look at tight supply choke points like Cushing, like some

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Speaker 1: of the systems in the North Sea, even what open

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Speaker 1: plus is going to do, those little bubbles create the

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Speaker 1: overall geopolitical story and drive a global commodity price that's

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Speaker 1: really extraordinarily healthy right now. One is hundred dollar barrel

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Speaker 1: of oil. Do say at the end of this year

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Speaker 1: early next year, as many people are predicting, I think

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Speaker 1: that's where we start to see probably pretty significant demand

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Speaker 1: destruction and probably where we start to see more increases

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Speaker 1: in US activity, which can be a swing producer and

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Speaker 1: we can return to being a swing producer. Aretist seeing

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Speaker 1: rip counts that are up almost uh double from a

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Speaker 1: year ago. And while the public shail players are sticking

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Speaker 1: to the investor narrative, the signs seeing a lot more

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Speaker 1: private shail activity uh and and more oil and gas

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Speaker 1: development and production coming in the Permian and elsewhere in

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Speaker 1: the US. How do you respond to market strategists, to

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Speaker 1: Wall Street types with a vector to ninety dollars or

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Speaker 1: even a hundred dollars of barrel? How do you respond

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Speaker 1: to that? As an academic. Well, I think, I mean

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Speaker 1: it's a it's a real economic challenge, right, I mean

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Speaker 1: that's what the underlying value of the of the commodity

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Speaker 1: is today. And I think that's where we have to

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Speaker 1: look at what's going to happen in Glasgow and cop

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Speaker 1: How do we accelerate the energy transition, how do we

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Speaker 1: address energy security and how do we ensure that the

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Speaker 1: market forces keep energy affordable and reliable and a planet

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Speaker 1: that's consuming more and more, you know every day as

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Speaker 1: we continue to grow with within the oil here, the

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Speaker 1: overlay has already been gas. I remember the the the

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Speaker 1: Exxon transaction. Everybody had to get into some form of

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Speaker 1: net gas and the rest of it as well, after

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Speaker 1: an a dark after accidental petroleum. What's going to be

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Speaker 1: the synergy that we're gonna see in American oil? What's

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Speaker 1: the next combination that just has to be done? Well,

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Speaker 1: I think you've seen those combinations already, tom So. I

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Speaker 1: think there's a lot of consolidation around shale assets in

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Speaker 1: the u US, which will help because scale, as they say,

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Speaker 1: shale means scale and that will help from a cost perspective.

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Speaker 1: So even if oil ultimately comes back down to below forty,

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Speaker 1: we can still be profitable with those larger players. And

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Speaker 1: you see the international wild companies pivoting more to have

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Speaker 1: a more diversified portfolio in the energy transition. Some are

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Speaker 1: betting more on carbon capture and storage, others are betting

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Speaker 1: more on hydrogen batteries, others are betting more on renewables.

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Speaker 1: So I think you'll start to see a bifurcation of

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Speaker 1: the traditional energy company strategy with sort of the new

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Speaker 1: energy company strategy, and that will help balance the power

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Speaker 1: needs that the planet has today. You know, as we

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Speaker 1: pivot into the energy transition, Regina and Top twenty six

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Speaker 1: will be very interesting to see. Regina. Before we let

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Speaker 1: you go, there's been a dilemma for a lot of

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Speaker 1: investors that want to move towards more E s G

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Speaker 1: type strategies, that want to seem like the good guys

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Speaker 1: investing in greener energy, and they have missed out on

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Speaker 1: a rally that's been dramatic, And a lot of analysts

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Speaker 1: have come on this show and said, you invest in

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Speaker 1: oil companies, you'll do great. How do you sort of

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Speaker 1: see that developing in terms of investors both getting the

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Speaker 1: returns but also being able to sleep at night with

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Speaker 1: how they're putting their money to work. Sector took a

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Speaker 1: beating last year that I didn't think was necessarily warranted.

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Speaker 1: So I think there's definite upside. And for those of

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Speaker 1: us that stayed in our only guests uh come out

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Speaker 1: of equities were doing really well in our portfolios. But

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Speaker 1: I think what I would say is investors need to

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Speaker 1: have a balance and don't count out the energy industry.

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Speaker 1: We have to be a key part of driving into

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Speaker 1: a lower carbon climate. If we're not at the forefront

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Speaker 1: of driving that, then I don't think that we are

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Speaker 1: able to achieve a two degree C at one point

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Speaker 1: five degree C scenario. So I encourage investors to look

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Speaker 1: at the bigger picture, don't demonize one side versus the other,

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Speaker 1: because we need an all of the above strategy to

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Speaker 1: get to the climate goal objectives that we have together.

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Speaker 1: So don't just look for what sounds green in the

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Speaker 1: short term. Look at a balanced portfolio because fossil fuels

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Speaker 1: and hydrocarbons have to be a core part of the

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Speaker 1: underlying part of the portfolio for for a substantial period

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Speaker 1: of time, and we will reduce the carbon footprint of

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Speaker 1: those hydrocarbons. The industry is committed to that. Regina, I've

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Speaker 1: a really enjoyed listening to you. Thanks for being with this.

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Speaker 1: Regina Matther of KPMG Tony presents you joining us now

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Speaker 1: markets trying togist and portfolio manager at Pimco Tony. This

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Speaker 1: cyclist moving so quickly, that's the story, the epicenter of

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Speaker 1: your round. Look with you in the team right now,

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Speaker 1: can you just walk us through how you thinking about

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Speaker 1: the world around us at the moment? Well, we we

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Speaker 1: when we talk like to talk about the Yiel curve

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Speaker 1: and Yelk curve movement speaks this idea of a fast

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Speaker 1: moving cycle. Does seem like the economic cycle is moving

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Speaker 1: at warp speed. Think about it. We're probably at mid cycle,

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Speaker 1: meaning look at the unemployment rate four what is a

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Speaker 1: late cycle condition. Of course nonemployment rate that's lower, and

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Speaker 1: that lower rate could be achieved the full employment next year.

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Speaker 1: So that's a fast moving cycle. In fact, the Federal

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Speaker 1: Reserve is projecting that the unemployant rate will be in

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Speaker 1: the mid threes by the end of next year. So

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Speaker 1: for investors, it's important to be on your toes. It's

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Speaker 1: the simple way you're saying, it's important to be active

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Speaker 1: with the portfolio management to be thinking more about security

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Speaker 1: selection a region, regional selections, etcetera, uh, etcetera. But then

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Speaker 1: it is a fast mood cycle. One final note that

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Speaker 1: the gield curve again, it's it has flattened recently, and

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Speaker 1: that's something that happens later in the cycle because the

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Speaker 1: Federal Reserve is raising the short term rate, which pushes

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Speaker 1: up if yield relative to the long term rate flattening.

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Speaker 1: That's where I want to go to Ston spread this morning.

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Speaker 1: Eighteen basis points, Tony. Where it is a two year

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Speaker 1: yield that matters to you? Were at zero point four

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Speaker 1: four percent? Just you're using your mind, Tony. Where's the

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Speaker 1: two year yield a tip point or a critical point?

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Speaker 1: For Chris Nzi, Well, the two year relative to other

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Speaker 1: yields matters a lot, and it's just that the two

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Speaker 1: years will tell us about the two year window. And

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Speaker 1: we know that the markets looking at shorter term interest

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Speaker 1: rates and forward interest rates like Euro dollar futures is

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Speaker 1: projecting at the Federal Serve will increase its policy rates

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Speaker 1: sometime next year, perhaps as early as June. The markets

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Speaker 1: penning in several interest rate types. But the other these

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Speaker 1: two extraordinary things about the two year to ten years spread.

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Speaker 1: One is the fact that the spread started to flatten

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Speaker 1: earlier in the cycle than we have seen since the

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Speaker 1: nineteen eighties. And then in the last three cycles, the

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Speaker 1: last three recessions, the spread between the two and the

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Speaker 1: tenure no was is why these three basis points. In

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Speaker 1: other words, the markets were patient about the idea of

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Speaker 1: federal reserved interest rate hikes. It thought that industrate highs

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Speaker 1: were somewhere on the distant horizon, and so long term

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Speaker 1: wields had stayed high. Um but now so this this

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Speaker 1: is the peak this time was one fifty, so it's

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Speaker 1: half the level of the previous cycles. Was to cut

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Speaker 1: to the a chase. The second part of the extraordinary

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Speaker 1: part of about the yield curve two cent spread is

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Speaker 1: that the tenure yield it's projected to be low and

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg of function through new Bloomberg uses f w

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Speaker 1: c M it shows forward interest rates, and you see

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Speaker 1: the market is saying that there's a benign story to

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Speaker 1: evolved unfold over time, that interest rates probably won't get

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Speaker 1: up two and a half presented as far out in

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Speaker 1: these forewas as I look at the table calling it

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Speaker 1: ten years plus well, but tony just to sort of

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Speaker 1: tie this all together, then what is the message from

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Speaker 1: the yield curve? Is it that the market that the

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Speaker 1: economy can't necessarily handle too much tightening from central banks,

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Speaker 1: or is it just that the margin is going to

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Speaker 1: naturally be narrower because of this ceiling on longer term yields?

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Speaker 1: He said, those are probably the conclusions that most would

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Speaker 1: draw from it now. But perhaps forward interest rates are wrong.

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Speaker 1: Perhaps the market, the consensus and that's embedded in these

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Speaker 1: forward rates, is wrong in thinking that the twenty tens

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Speaker 1: uh it will be uh repeated in the twenties. But

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Speaker 1: the twenty tents is probably the wrong analog for the twenties.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot going on in pimco's secular outlook. We

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Speaker 1: talk about speak to transformations, for example, becoming more digital,

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Speaker 1: more inclusive, more green. Those are the three major transformations

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Speaker 1: we see. All those things could We're not saying they

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Speaker 1: will result in faster growth, and simply doing the math.

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Speaker 1: If if economic growth is four percent, as the FED

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Speaker 1: projects next year and PIMCO projects as well, then looking

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Speaker 1: at the next five years, even if growth is two

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Speaker 1: percent of subsequent four we'll still have a rate that's

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Speaker 1: about two and a half. So that would be a

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Speaker 1: lot better than the twenty tens simply just by that math.

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Speaker 1: And so it's possible the growth is faster and these

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Speaker 1: these forwards are wrong, and therefore race will go high.

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Speaker 1: We're not suggesting that race will go materially higher. In fact,

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Speaker 1: we would say we may return to certain old normal conditions,

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Speaker 1: but with new neutral characteristics, which is to say that, yes, Lisa,

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Speaker 1: that the battles are can't raise its interest rate too

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Speaker 1: much because of debt loads and certain other factors. Tony,

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Speaker 1: we're out of time. Haven't even got the time to

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Speaker 1: plug your book. Gotta let you go, Tony Criscenti, Thanks,

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Speaker 1: thank You's gonna catch up as Elwise. This is the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live weekdays

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Speaker 1: from seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio and

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Television each day from six to nine am

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Speaker 1: international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on Apple, podcast, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course on the terminal. I'm

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Speaker 1: Tom Keene and this is Bloomberg,