Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single best idea very quickly here today. What a wonderful set,
Speaker 2: A lot of fun with the Yankees, Red Sox Yankee
Speaker 2: Stadium tonight, Lisa Mateo, thank you so much for that.
Speaker 2: Ann Marie Horden a cameo appearance. She is Surveillance Yankees correspondent.
Speaker 2: But also we looked at the moment of international relations
Speaker 2: buttressed into this strange stock market in modern technology. Michael
Speaker 2: Darta with us with rough capital. Michael Darta on the
Speaker 2: moment at hand and a constructive nominal g that would
Speaker 2: be four to five percent and not overheated.
Speaker 1: Nominal wages and real wages are growing, so that's consistent
Speaker 1: with the real economy expanding. Inflation is still above the
Speaker 1: FEDS target, but I think, you know, in an environment
Speaker 1: where inflation is trending at around three you know, so
Speaker 1: that can still be a very strong environment for corporate
Speaker 1: profits if the economy is you know, staying out of recession,
Speaker 1: and that's you know, I think that is likely with
Speaker 1: the FED easing monetary policy. They've already taken rates down
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty five basis points, and with inflation
Speaker 1: expectations moving up forty to sixty basis points. Over that period,
Speaker 1: real rates have fallen about two hundred basis points. So
Speaker 1: the FED is definitely removed quite a bit of restraint
Speaker 1: from its policy, so the top line should hang in there.
Speaker 1: I do think, you know, I do worry about the
Speaker 1: FED getting back to two percent inflation on a reasonable timeline.
Speaker 1: If we're still stuck at three percent inflation over the
Speaker 1: course of the next two years, and that's part of
Speaker 1: the FEDS forecasts, boy, that's a long overshoot seven years,
Speaker 1: So I worry a little bit that that leeds into credibility.
Speaker 1: You know, the administration really wants FED to ease because
Speaker 1: they want lower market interest rates. But you know you're
Speaker 1: not going to get lower market interest rates inflation expectations
Speaker 1: continue moving on, So the FED needs to stay credible here.
Speaker 1: I think, you know, four to five percent nominal, that's
Speaker 1: the sweet spot. You'll have corporate pricing power, Inflation won't
Speaker 1: be too high long rates will be at reasonable levels.
Speaker 2: Michael Darta nominal GDP. I can't tell you how important
Speaker 2: I think that is through all the years I've really
Speaker 2: you know, real GDP has huge value. Don't get me wrong.
Speaker 2: But the idea of combining the real GDP growth and
Speaker 2: then overlaying it with inflation to give you the animal
Speaker 2: spirit of the system is I think just a critical
Speaker 2: and useful analysis, particularly full to go over into revenues
Speaker 2: and then what it means for the stock market and
Speaker 2: American corporations as well. A wonderful conversation with Ian Bremer
Speaker 2: of Eurasia Group today. Too many themes to speak of,
Speaker 2: but one of them was the ending of US programs
Speaker 2: to Africa.
Speaker 3: The United States is the most powerful country in the world.
Speaker 3: It's the strongest economy by far, and the US has
Speaker 3: historically been doing the most in terms of providing aid
Speaker 3: to other countries and to the people in those countries
Speaker 3: that need it, whether they're suffering from malaria, whether they're
Speaker 3: vulnerable to HIV AIDS, whether they're starving, whether they're facing
Speaker 3: forced migration. The US has done that directly. It's also
Speaker 3: led the charge in doing that indirectly through American support
Speaker 3: for the United Nations and the organizations that it stands up,
Speaker 3: like the World Food Program, for example. The United States
Speaker 3: has decided that those things should no longer be priorities.
Speaker 3: That America first means that these other countries should have
Speaker 3: to make their own way, they should have to pay
Speaker 3: for themselves. Now, the Chinese see this is a great opportunity.
Speaker 3: In the same way that when the Americans cut back
Speaker 3: on visas, the Chinese immediately say we're going to make
Speaker 3: it easier for talented people to come. They won't be
Speaker 3: as attractive in terms of their aid. But if they
Speaker 3: are the lead power, I mean, they made up their dues,
Speaker 3: many of which were in ear years at the UN
Speaker 3: the Americans aren't paying. The Chinese said, okay, we'll pay
Speaker 3: some of ours now, so that they can put forward
Speaker 3: that they're the ones that are more accountable. Look, if
Speaker 3: you think that only American hard power.
Speaker 4: Matters, and maybe in the short term that's true, then
Speaker 4: and you don't care very much about non Americans and
Speaker 4: don't think that they are as deserving or that we
Speaker 4: should take care of any of them, we don't have accountability, then.
Speaker 3: It doesn't matter. But that's never been my view, and
Speaker 3: I think it's a mistake long term.
Speaker 2: Ian Bremmer of Eurrasia Group can't say enough about his
Speaker 2: note Look for that from eur Rasia Group on podcasts
Speaker 2: on Apple and Spotify and YouTube podcasts is single best
Speaker 2: idea