1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:12,360 --> 00:00:16,080 Speaker 2: Single best idea very quickly here today. What a wonderful set, 3 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,800 Speaker 2: A lot of fun with the Yankees, Red Sox Yankee 4 00:00:18,880 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 2: Stadium tonight, Lisa Mateo, thank you so much for that. 5 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 2: Ann Marie Horden a cameo appearance. She is Surveillance Yankees correspondent. 6 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:30,720 Speaker 2: But also we looked at the moment of international relations 7 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:34,840 Speaker 2: buttressed into this strange stock market in modern technology. Michael 8 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 2: Darta with us with rough capital. Michael Darta on the 9 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:41,640 Speaker 2: moment at hand and a constructive nominal g that would 10 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:44,720 Speaker 2: be four to five percent and not overheated. 11 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 1: Nominal wages and real wages are growing, so that's consistent 12 00:00:49,360 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 1: with the real economy expanding. Inflation is still above the 13 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 1: FEDS target, but I think, you know, in an environment 14 00:00:56,360 --> 00:01:00,040 Speaker 1: where inflation is trending at around three you know, so 15 00:01:00,080 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 1: that can still be a very strong environment for corporate 16 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 1: profits if the economy is you know, staying out of recession, 17 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: and that's you know, I think that is likely with 18 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 1: the FED easing monetary policy. They've already taken rates down 19 00:01:11,640 --> 00:01:15,399 Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty five basis points, and with inflation 20 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: expectations moving up forty to sixty basis points. Over that period, 21 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:24,800 Speaker 1: real rates have fallen about two hundred basis points. So 22 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 1: the FED is definitely removed quite a bit of restraint 23 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:32,040 Speaker 1: from its policy, so the top line should hang in there. 24 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 1: I do think, you know, I do worry about the 25 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:38,120 Speaker 1: FED getting back to two percent inflation on a reasonable timeline. 26 00:01:38,120 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 1: If we're still stuck at three percent inflation over the 27 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 1: course of the next two years, and that's part of 28 00:01:43,600 --> 00:01:47,920 Speaker 1: the FEDS forecasts, boy, that's a long overshoot seven years, 29 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:51,200 Speaker 1: So I worry a little bit that that leeds into credibility. 30 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:55,000 Speaker 1: You know, the administration really wants FED to ease because 31 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 1: they want lower market interest rates. But you know you're 32 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: not going to get lower market interest rates inflation expectations 33 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:04,760 Speaker 1: continue moving on, So the FED needs to stay credible here. 34 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 1: I think, you know, four to five percent nominal, that's 35 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 1: the sweet spot. You'll have corporate pricing power, Inflation won't 36 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:14,880 Speaker 1: be too high long rates will be at reasonable levels. 37 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 2: Michael Darta nominal GDP. I can't tell you how important 38 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 2: I think that is through all the years I've really 39 00:02:21,000 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 2: you know, real GDP has huge value. Don't get me wrong. 40 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 2: But the idea of combining the real GDP growth and 41 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:29,960 Speaker 2: then overlaying it with inflation to give you the animal 42 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:32,760 Speaker 2: spirit of the system is I think just a critical 43 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 2: and useful analysis, particularly full to go over into revenues 44 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 2: and then what it means for the stock market and 45 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 2: American corporations as well. A wonderful conversation with Ian Bremer 46 00:02:45,120 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 2: of Eurasia Group today. Too many themes to speak of, 47 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 2: but one of them was the ending of US programs 48 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 2: to Africa. 49 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 3: The United States is the most powerful country in the world. 50 00:02:57,480 --> 00:03:01,639 Speaker 3: It's the strongest economy by far, and the US has 51 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:05,519 Speaker 3: historically been doing the most in terms of providing aid 52 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:09,560 Speaker 3: to other countries and to the people in those countries 53 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 3: that need it, whether they're suffering from malaria, whether they're 54 00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 3: vulnerable to HIV AIDS, whether they're starving, whether they're facing 55 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 3: forced migration. The US has done that directly. It's also 56 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 3: led the charge in doing that indirectly through American support 57 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:29,120 Speaker 3: for the United Nations and the organizations that it stands up, 58 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 3: like the World Food Program, for example. The United States 59 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 3: has decided that those things should no longer be priorities. 60 00:03:36,080 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 3: That America first means that these other countries should have 61 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 3: to make their own way, they should have to pay 62 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 3: for themselves. Now, the Chinese see this is a great opportunity. 63 00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 3: In the same way that when the Americans cut back 64 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:50,760 Speaker 3: on visas, the Chinese immediately say we're going to make 65 00:03:50,800 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 3: it easier for talented people to come. They won't be 66 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 3: as attractive in terms of their aid. But if they 67 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 3: are the lead power, I mean, they made up their dues, 68 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 3: many of which were in ear years at the UN 69 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 3: the Americans aren't paying. The Chinese said, okay, we'll pay 70 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 3: some of ours now, so that they can put forward 71 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 3: that they're the ones that are more accountable. Look, if 72 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 3: you think that only American hard power. 73 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 4: Matters, and maybe in the short term that's true, then 74 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 4: and you don't care very much about non Americans and 75 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 4: don't think that they are as deserving or that we 76 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 4: should take care of any of them, we don't have accountability, then. 77 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 3: It doesn't matter. But that's never been my view, and 78 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 3: I think it's a mistake long term. 79 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:36,039 Speaker 2: Ian Bremmer of Eurrasia Group can't say enough about his 80 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 2: note Look for that from eur Rasia Group on podcasts 81 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 2: on Apple and Spotify and YouTube podcasts is single best 82 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 2: idea