Speaker 1: So let's get into this.
Speaker 2: I want to start with probably the biggest thing that
Speaker 2: happened last week is Amazon. So Amazon, it was down
Speaker 2: twenty percent after hours, but then it rebounded. I think
Speaker 2: it finished the day down like seven percent something like that,
Speaker 2: but missed it's uh, it's expected guidance. The guidance was
Speaker 2: lower than they were expected. Still profitable, still made a
Speaker 2: ton of money, but just missed Wall Street's expectations, and
Speaker 2: it dropped to a fifty two week low. Like I said,
Speaker 2: rebounded a little bit from that. But yeah, it's interesting, man,
Speaker 2: it really, you know, had a really tough day and
Speaker 2: it's been having a tough year.
Speaker 1: It's been having a tough couple of years. Actually. Well,
Speaker 1: so now the stock market, Oh are we.
Speaker 3: Going to get the dialogue and debate that we get sports? Well,
Speaker 3: what's the show is going to be the one? What's
Speaker 3: the base show?
Speaker 1: Is?
Speaker 2: So the stock stock market is up for the month
Speaker 2: of October.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was up eleven percent.
Speaker 2: The Nasdaq is up even the other day when when
Speaker 2: Amazon crashed, NASDAK was up. That's when people was up.
Speaker 2: That was up. But so Amazon was your pick of
Speaker 2: the year, Yes, it was. So I'll let you start
Speaker 2: off this conversation is do you want to reverse that?
Speaker 2: I'm not there down Everest? So which which way are
Speaker 2: we going? Which way we're going?
Speaker 3: Yes?
Speaker 1: Sension or the sension is key?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean based on everything that I had read
Speaker 4: in my in my information, you know, I stuck by
Speaker 4: that pick.
Speaker 1: Has it gone the way I predicted? No? No? Do
Speaker 1: I still believe in the company. Absolutely.
Speaker 4: So the report, the earnings report was interesting, right, because
Speaker 4: there was some like if you looked inside of it,
Speaker 4: there were some good spots, but the bad spots were
Speaker 4: so bad that it got overlooked. So I'm gonna break
Speaker 4: it down by the numbers, and so a good spot
Speaker 4: the revenue group about fifteen percent. Anytime you have a
Speaker 4: business and it grows, that's great. The advertising, right, which
Speaker 4: is we said was going to pass Google at some point,
Speaker 4: was up by twenty five percent. The big pitfall was
Speaker 4: the operating income that fell by forty nine percent. Right,
Speaker 4: So those who don't know what operating income is, can
Speaker 4: you really quickly explain to them on I mean, I
Speaker 4: think the best way to say it is the money
Speaker 4: that they are taking in and how they're going to
Speaker 4: use it now and specifically for tech companies and inflationary environments,
Speaker 4: this does not bolde well, right, And so as inflation
Speaker 4: goes the cost to do things to operate your business
Speaker 4: obviously goes up. And so when you see interest rate rise,
Speaker 4: you see right, since January, if you look at the NASTEC,
Speaker 4: the tech stocks have taken descension. We're gonna stick with
Speaker 4: that work. Most of them died riding down ever or
Speaker 4: walking down evers, right, most counts die on a decession,
Speaker 4: So that that that was huge, all right. The arnth
Speaker 4: per share dropped right by an estimated forty five percent.
Speaker 4: So those those two things, when you're talking about operating
Speaker 4: costs and the earnings per share drop in there you
Speaker 4: can see why a company like Amazon, which I still
Speaker 4: think is a top three, if not top two companies
Speaker 4: in the world, had such a negative quarter. Operating cash
Speaker 4: flow also declined by twenty five percent. So like now
Speaker 4: we're talking about three major factors of things that are like,
Speaker 4: all right, this is a rough quarter. But even Basos
Speaker 4: when they asked him about it, he was like, look,
Speaker 4: we're gonna have to really tighten the belt because the
Speaker 4: climate is about to get a real tricky. So those
Speaker 4: are three factors you add on to one other thing
Speaker 4: that was almost positive.
Speaker 1: And kind of got overlooked.
Speaker 4: But the fourth quarter revenue is expected to grow by
Speaker 4: two to eight percent. Fourth Quarta, obviously we know, is
Speaker 4: how they shop and how they season. More people are
Speaker 4: in e commerce. The only thing is that what they're
Speaker 4: seeing is that more people are going back into the stores.
Speaker 4: We thought that obviously from the COVID time that people
Speaker 4: were shopping online and it was a positive. But people
Speaker 4: are back outside right e commerce numbers are not looking
Speaker 4: the same as they did when you know, it was
Speaker 4: a lockdown. So all those things taken into account. I
Speaker 4: understand it. Do I still believe in it absolutely. Is
Speaker 4: it going to be the stock of the year. Absolutely not.
Speaker 4: It's still one of my top two or three companies.
Speaker 1: Though.
Speaker 3: The big thing I want people to realize is that
Speaker 3: even in a company when it's going down.
Speaker 1: Ernest, what's up?
Speaker 5: You ever walk into a small business and everything just
Speaker 5: works like the checkout is fast, or seats are digital,
Speaker 5: tipping is a breeze and you're out the door before
Speaker 5: the line even builds.
Speaker 1: Odds are they're using.
Speaker 5: We love supporting businesses that run on square because it
Speaker 5: just feels seamless.
Speaker 1: Whether it's a local coffee.
Speaker 5: Shop, a vendor at a pop up market, or even
Speaker 5: one of our merch partners, Square makes it easy for
Speaker 5: them to take payments, manage inventory, and run their business
Speaker 5: with confidence, all from one simple system. If you're a
Speaker 5: business owner or even just thinking about launching something soon,
Speaker 5: Square is hands down one of the best tools out
Speaker 5: there to help you start, run and grow. It's not
Speaker 5: just about payments, it's about giving you time back so
Speaker 5: you can focus on.
Speaker 1: What matters most Ready.
Speaker 5: To see how Square can transform your business, visit Square
Speaker 5: dot com backslash go backslash eyl to learn more. That's
Speaker 5: Square dot com backslash, go backslash eyl. Don't wait, don't hesitate.
Speaker 5: Let's Square handle the back end so you can keep
Speaker 5: pushing your vision forward. This episode is brought to you
Speaker 5: by P and C Bank. A lot of people think
Speaker 5: podcasts about work boring, and sure they definitely can be,
Speaker 5: but understanding a professionals routine shows us how they achieve
Speaker 5: their success little by little, day after day. It's like
Speaker 5: banking with P and C Bank. It might seem boring
Speaker 5: to safe plan and make calculated decisions with your bank
Speaker 5: but keeping your money boring is what helps you live
Speaker 5: a more happily fulfilled life. P and C Bank Brilliantly
Speaker 5: Boring since eighteen sixty five. Brilliantly boring since eighteen sixty
Speaker 5: five is a service mark of the PNC Financial Service Group, Inc.
Speaker 5: P and C Bank National Association Member FDIC.
Speaker 3: To wait for a great price to get in. Everyone
Speaker 3: on a stock club, please put in chat Woll was
Speaker 3: a number our coff Amazon. You can still make money
Speaker 3: on a heavy drop like that. So the fundamentals of
Speaker 3: the company haven't changed that much. Their global market share
Speaker 3: dominance has not changed that much. When you have interest
Speaker 3: rates of course going up and we're now going through
Speaker 3: I think this ultimately will be a bigger recession when
Speaker 3: it's all said and done in two thousand and seven,
Speaker 3: two thousand and eight. But Amazon is primed, no pun
Speaker 3: intended to do really well. Once things start to settle out,
Speaker 3: they could be a hell of a lot lower. Being
Speaker 3: in that tech space. They haven't fallen into the seventies
Speaker 3: or the sixties. Ninety nine was like a good spot
Speaker 3: that we liked, got in. It's like currently like a
Speaker 3: one oh four if you're holding it for the long term,
Speaker 3: you will be good also for a quick homework assignment. Internationally,
Speaker 3: if you're going to order online from someone who are
Speaker 3: the four biggest competitors of Amazon. Now ask yourself, who's
Speaker 3: going to get the goods to you there faster than Amazon?
Speaker 1: No one.
Speaker 3: They'll fix the operating income. Any money they're losing right now,
Speaker 3: they'll fix. Going into next year, you're going to be
Speaker 3: really upset if you don't hold a stock twenty twenty five,
Speaker 3: twenty six. Yeah, and if you look at the climate
Speaker 3: of the world, like every country is trying to create
Speaker 3: a business that replicates Amazon, right and I won't give
Speaker 3: them the names because you gave them a homework assignment.
Speaker 3: But go look in China, right, Well, we know that company,
Speaker 3: but go look in South America. There's another company there
Speaker 3: that is duplicated the business model of Amazon. And so
Speaker 3: they'll figure it out. I believe in them. Well, let
Speaker 3: me ask you this ian.
Speaker 2: You you said a few times that your theory of
Speaker 2: two tech two index, if inflation gets something to over
Speaker 2: eleven percent, then that right, eleven percent? Yes, then that
Speaker 2: that is gonna hurt your your theory. So why is
Speaker 2: high inflation bad for technology?
Speaker 3: Especially when quantitative easing goes away all the easy wins,
Speaker 3: like for all my hoopers, like when we play on
Speaker 3: like a nine foot rim, we all look like Lebron
Speaker 3: ten feet dramatically different. So that difference between happens your
Speaker 3: interest rates and being able to borrow money. Like imagine
Speaker 3: if if I said, hey, come to invest fast euro
Speaker 3: We'll give every entrepreneur one hundred thousand dollars and you
Speaker 3: never have to pay us back. The upside for the
Speaker 3: entrepreneur is probably a ninety five percent win rate. If
Speaker 3: we give one hundred thousand pounds away and say hey,
Speaker 3: you got to pay us twenty five percent back, now
Speaker 3: maybe only thirty percent of the businesses will actually be
Speaker 3: profitable as a result, So that arbitrage is one of
Speaker 3: the biggest reasons Now Apple inside of that two tech
Speaker 3: two index model has worked well. That's why always say
Speaker 3: pair with the top two. But if you're going through
Speaker 3: tech and you're looking at something that's fifteenth or twentieth,
Speaker 3: that's not going to do really well because what the
Speaker 3: technology industry really has done has gotten venture capital, which
Speaker 3: has funded all of the ideas, and we have a
Speaker 3: funded innovation. We've really funded the ideas that can get funded.
Speaker 3: That's why we have a whole bunch of social media apps.
Speaker 3: We could talk about it later. Now Jack from squares
Speaker 3: looking to make another social media app, which I think
Speaker 3: is a mistake. But you're really playing an interest rate
Speaker 3: arbitrage game. So if I'm getting loan money at three percent,
Speaker 3: when I can find a way ultimately to sell advertising
Speaker 3: or a subscription to my user base at nine percent,
Speaker 3: I'm playing an arbitrage game and getting the profit in between.
Speaker 3: If interest rate is high and then no one's loaning
Speaker 3: the money out, it's really hard to win that game.
Speaker 3: So we are in a space, but we need more innovation,
Speaker 3: and ironically enough tech has not done a great job
Speaker 3: at making a bunch of innovation. How we thought Like
Speaker 3: when we were kids, I thought we would have flying
Speaker 3: cars by now, Yeah, Jetson's for sure, we're not there.
Speaker 3: Like RAYJ is the only one still making scootie bikes
Speaker 3: shot up in the city.
Speaker 1: Shout out to ray J.
Speaker 3: So we need more innovation, and I think now we're
Speaker 3: just going to clear the way for people to be
Speaker 3: able to get out all the bad companies and create
Speaker 3: companies that will actually have a real ima.
Speaker 2: My graduates from my school being force back drop Drop
Speaker 2: Mike drot bag.
Speaker 6: Drop, an illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a
Speaker 6: child in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al
Speaker 6: Salvador accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged
Speaker 6: with filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are
Speaker 6: just some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of
Speaker 6: President Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United
Speaker 6: States Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal
Speaker 6: border crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and
Speaker 6: over one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If
Speaker 6: you are here illegally, your next you will be fine
Speaker 6: nearly one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned and deported, you
Speaker 6: will never return. But if you register using our CBP
Speaker 6: home app and leave now, you could be allowed to
Speaker 6: return legally. Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump,
Speaker 6: America's laws, border and families will be protected.
Speaker 1: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security,