Speaker 1: The breaking news overnight was that the Iranians shot down
Speaker 1: a US military aircraft. I prefer to call it that
Speaker 1: as opposed to a drone, because I don't know, just
Speaker 1: drone sounds too soft. I'm about unmanned aircraft. One of
Speaker 1: our pilots didn't get killed. That's fine, you got to
Speaker 1: throw that in. But it's it's it's more than just
Speaker 1: you know, some tiny little drone you bought at Walmart.
Speaker 1: It's a bigger deal than that. It's the latest step
Speaker 1: in a significant step in the escalations attentions between the
Speaker 1: US various of our Gulf allies in the Iranians. My
Speaker 1: clients military analysts joins US major Mike Lions, not only
Speaker 1: in military analysts as we were discussing last hour, but
Speaker 1: a historian. Uh, Mike, welcome, How are you guys. Great
Speaker 1: to be back with you. Thanks. Um Is it's does
Speaker 1: this worry you? Is this a big step? Well, it's
Speaker 1: a it's now this is the red line there. They
Speaker 1: are literally right at that place where we've got to
Speaker 1: respond to do something. I think you go back to
Speaker 1: the Trump administrations Tehran a few months ago that killing
Speaker 1: an American soldier was going to be that red line.
Speaker 1: You cross it and you're going to get everything that
Speaker 1: we've got coming at you. The Uranians took that list
Speaker 1: and set down made a list of all the things
Speaker 1: that they could do that did that they could take
Speaker 1: that would um just would upset us interests and allies
Speaker 1: and and this is one of us that stops just
Speaker 1: short of it. We didn't kill a soldier, but we
Speaker 1: took out one of your military assets. And I think
Speaker 1: there's other items on that list. They're going to continue
Speaker 1: to do this. Um, they knew full well what they
Speaker 1: were doing. UM, this is an aircraft fly the twenty
Speaker 1: feet service to air missile had to take it out, um,
Speaker 1: had to return address. And so that's probably was the
Speaker 1: first thing we could do, is we can go after
Speaker 1: the missile base that shot this aircraft down. Interesting point,
Speaker 1: so they're claiming we were in their airspace. We're saying
Speaker 1: we were in international airspace. Do you have any doubt
Speaker 1: that we're telling the truth. You know that aircraft flies
Speaker 1: at such a high altitude that it wouldn't you know,
Speaker 1: violate anything, uh from a from a threat perspective, if
Speaker 1: it's if it's monitoring it. What countries do is they
Speaker 1: have this lily pad approach. They if they if they
Speaker 1: claim an island out let's say in the Persian Gulf
Speaker 1: is Iranian territory, they drop a lily pad on it
Speaker 1: and say, Okay, thirteen miles now around that island is
Speaker 1: now Iranian airspace. It's been ignored by the rest of
Speaker 1: the world. But that's what the Iranians might be claiming
Speaker 1: as to why it is because I doubt that we
Speaker 1: would got fly that close. And this is not something
Speaker 1: that has to fly close. It's it's a surveillance collecting
Speaker 1: you know, big Blue, the way all looking device that
Speaker 1: that flies collects a lot of data, stays on station
Speaker 1: for thirty hours, has tremendous capability. But but but not
Speaker 1: but not something that has to violate the airspace. Let's
Speaker 1: pull back a little bit. Speaking of being at feet,
Speaker 1: What's what's the game iran is playing right now? What
Speaker 1: are they trying to accomplish. I think they're trying to
Speaker 1: divide the United States with its allies, and I think
Speaker 1: they're trying to get the sanctions relieved them. The only
Speaker 1: thing I can think of as to why they're going
Speaker 1: after the tankers in the Middle East is because they're
Speaker 1: just trying to drive up the price of oil to
Speaker 1: get as much as they can for what they are
Speaker 1: able to shift out of the Persian Gulf. Right now,
Speaker 1: the sanctions have really strangled them. That doesn't don't have
Speaker 1: the same capability to to move a lot of their
Speaker 1: um their oil, and countries that we've got um in
Speaker 1: our back pocket aren't buying it anymore. UM. Still, India, Japan,
Speaker 1: China continues to um to buy the oil coming from Iran.
Speaker 1: But I think that's that's what that's all about. UM.
Speaker 1: And now we're going to see what the response will
Speaker 1: be from Germany, from England, France, we saw Russia's already
Speaker 1: weighed in they're gonna be on the side of the Iranians.
Speaker 1: But when when Iran does something like this, if the
Speaker 1: British don't come back and support us, and the Germans
Speaker 1: don't support us, then the messages we're going to go
Speaker 1: this alone. And an interesting article over the weekend about
Speaker 1: if the United States decides to go to war with Iran,
Speaker 1: we'll lose this century to the Chinese, and I think
Speaker 1: there's a kernel of truth in that. I think if
Speaker 1: we if we decide that we've got to go after
Speaker 1: the Iranians now militarily, it's gonna have to be all in.
Speaker 1: We're gonna have to you know, we can't have this
Speaker 1: limited war anymore. Um. I think we're gonna lose our
Speaker 1: focus in the South China see, and we'll we'll we'll
Speaker 1: suffer losses and we'll have a problem. And I think
Speaker 1: there's a little bit of truth to that. And you
Speaker 1: think Iran knows that. I think they do, and I
Speaker 1: think you know, they recognize that war still has regime
Speaker 1: change for them, and it's suicidal and they don't want
Speaker 1: to do it. And they'll likely, as they did with
Speaker 1: the Iraqis in the eighties, they'll do what they can
Speaker 1: to to stop it. And and they'll they'll look for
Speaker 1: China and Russia to come in on their side. I mean,
Speaker 1: it could, it could escalate very quickly. Um. But they're
Speaker 1: betting that the world will not side with the United
Speaker 1: States of the United States are gonna have to make
Speaker 1: this decision on its own, um, knowing the critical pressure
Speaker 1: here in the United States, knowing that you know, I'm
Speaker 1: watching people this morning literally bring blame Donald Trump for
Speaker 1: this is just beyond the pale that we went bringing
Speaker 1: our president for neuron targeting and shooting down a US
Speaker 1: military asset is just beyond beyond belief. Well, the point is,
Speaker 1: of course he pulled out of the nuclear agreement and
Speaker 1: has ratcheted up the pressure and made them squoil. And
Speaker 1: this is them squealing, right, So you know that's true
Speaker 1: as far as it goes, whether it's good foreign policy
Speaker 1: or not. I suppose you could argue about, um, major
Speaker 1: Mike clients on the phone, Mike, if you're going to
Speaker 1: switch into advisor mode, Um, what would you suggest our
Speaker 1: response be to the shooting down of this rather expensive
Speaker 1: unmanned aircraft? No, it's it's expensive, it's a cost more
Speaker 1: than the Actually I would Um, I'd likely target the
Speaker 1: missile base where it came from. I think that that
Speaker 1: would be a fair measured response to this, and actually
Speaker 1: hit it with a U S missile. I would, given
Speaker 1: it's likely along the coast someplace, maybe perhaps uh, you know,
Speaker 1: give them some that that would show that we're willing
Speaker 1: to actually swing a stick. Now, UM, kill a couple
Speaker 1: of Rainians hanging around the hanging around there or not
Speaker 1: if they were unfortunate enough to be there. I think
Speaker 1: that you know, there's there's other things that the range
Speaker 1: are doing. They're going after the de stalization plans in
Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia, they're doing all these these things again to
Speaker 1: go right to that line, we've got to tell we've
Speaker 1: got to unblow that line and say, you know what
Speaker 1: that line now is destroying this equipment. At this point,
Speaker 1: I think um I would do that now, then see
Speaker 1: what the escalation goes from there. You know, we can't
Speaker 1: live our lives worried about the Iranians unleashing Heasburah and
Speaker 1: and secret cells throughout the world, and terrorist groups that
Speaker 1: they are. Look what Ran didn't in two thousand eleven
Speaker 1: to Obama. They shot down a drone that that what
Speaker 1: was it, the the r Q one seventy, that drone
Speaker 1: that that stealth looking thing. And Obama politely asks it back,
Speaker 1: you know, please, can we have our drone? Back says no, no, no,
Speaker 1: not gonna give it back. We're gonna re engineer one.
Speaker 1: We're gonna make one ourselves. I'm gonna put it on
Speaker 1: display to show the world about how much we've we've
Speaker 1: destroyed you. So you know, these people don't play, They're
Speaker 1: not they're not interested in making us look good. And
Speaker 1: at some point I think there's going to be a
Speaker 1: conflict here. I know the President makes the ultimatecall on this,
Speaker 1: but right beneath them the Secretary Defense, Our current Secretary
Speaker 1: Defense has got the job for about twenty four more hours.
Speaker 1: Does that make it more difficult? You know? Um. Patrick
Speaker 1: Shanahan has been on a kind of a Dennis I
Speaker 1: think for past few weeks. I think, you know, they
Speaker 1: were trying to blame the McCain incident on him, and
Speaker 1: kind of what I had was there was something coming
Speaker 1: down and obviously that that that you dropped with this
Speaker 1: UM incident to this this UM his domestic incident that
Speaker 1: happened where he looks more of a victim than anything else.
Speaker 1: UM unfortunately. But so the guy that's been running the
Speaker 1: panogony is Joe Dunferd is the four star chairman of
Speaker 1: the GEINT Chiefs of Staff. He's been the steady hand
Speaker 1: at the wheel, not getting a credit for it, you know,
Speaker 1: kind of classic, you know, in American style. And so
Speaker 1: h and Mark Asper, who will take over in the
Speaker 1: seat UM former he's former Secretary of the Army, has
Speaker 1: done a great job for the Army the past two years.
Speaker 1: I think they're just going to go right by him. Pompey,
Speaker 1: with his military background with Bolton here, is likely telling
Speaker 1: the President we up to strike. So one more quick question,
Speaker 1: just if I'm advising the president, um, and tell me
Speaker 1: if this is idiotic or unprecedented, I uh say, to
Speaker 1: the your aunience, Hey, look we know where you shot
Speaker 1: that missile from. We're going to reduce it to rubble.
Speaker 1: We're gonna do it in six hours. Get your guys
Speaker 1: out of there. Does that ever happen, Yeah, that happens.
Speaker 1: That that does happen. It happens back channel. Um, it
Speaker 1: absolutely does. And um that that's a possibility. Um, they
Speaker 1: could likely move civilians there though, and they could likely
Speaker 1: Um they could. I mean that's possible. It's it's not
Speaker 1: something that that that wouldn't be beneath him to do so.
Speaker 1: And then that will have to then then the decision,
Speaker 1: you know, we'll be will you know, we can watch
Speaker 1: down to you know, we can watch literally down to
Speaker 1: the name tags or the soldiers that they have on
Speaker 1: the ground there is to see who specifically is there. Um,
Speaker 1: but we just have to see what we're dealing with.
Speaker 1: And it just gets back to I think the key
Speaker 1: right now as allies and whether we're going to go
Speaker 1: this alone or not. And that has a lot to
Speaker 1: do with Trump's personality and all these countries that were
Speaker 1: suffering internal, you know, challenges right now, the Brits with Brexit,
Speaker 1: the French and their internal struggles with Macron and his
Speaker 1: lack of popularity. And we all know that Germany is
Speaker 1: not interested in doing anything to do. But if they
Speaker 1: all say no, no, no, no, no, no, don't escalate,
Speaker 1: this is all dumb, don't escalate, then do we really
Speaker 1: have to hit the brakes? I think we do. I
Speaker 1: don't think if we go this alone. It gets back
Speaker 1: to that thing about we lose the century. I think
Speaker 1: there's a little bit of there's a lot of truth
Speaker 1: in that. I do believe that we're gonna spread ourselves
Speaker 1: then and figure out there will be We've got to
Speaker 1: fight another day. They'll they'll they'll likely be They'll likely
Speaker 1: be a fight with Uranians, you know, ten days. The
Speaker 1: next thing you know, they're enriching uranium. I thought that
Speaker 1: breakout was going to take six months. Uranians at ten days,
Speaker 1: because once the very second that the Iranians have this
Speaker 1: nuclear capability, that those those those f six teams in
Speaker 1: Tel Aviv are going to get scrambled and they're they're
Speaker 1: gonna go after that target. So these Rerailis are gonna
Speaker 1: get involved, and then then then then what happens. Then
Speaker 1: we're totally different side of war there. Yikes, Mike clients
Speaker 1: military analysts for CBS and its Mike always a pleasure,
Speaker 1: Thanks a million from me. You got an excellent point
Speaker 1: there at the end. So uh so are in you know,
Speaker 1: works towards getting the bomb. Israel doesn't wait around for that,
Speaker 1: and then they don't care if France and Germany are
Speaker 1: on board. I mean, and they don't wait for a
Speaker 1: certainty either, because they have the unique position of it's
Speaker 1: an overused phrase now an existential threat there they could
Speaker 1: actually be obliterated from the earth, right, they're so small
Speaker 1: it is, it is quite literally he was going to
Speaker 1: kill me, so I so choice, people are mad, people
Speaker 1: are whatever. Right you didn't agree. I don't have time
Speaker 1: to worry about that. Yeah, I'd be dead by now
Speaker 1: if i'd a waited for your approval, right exactly? So
Speaker 1: yea it involved, that's a that's a sticky one. So
Speaker 1: so lines there at the end though, saying if if
Speaker 1: if Britain and France both getting trumps here and say
Speaker 1: nah no, no, no, no no no no, let's keep everybody
Speaker 1: keep cool, or beyond everybody keep cool, just stand down,
Speaker 1: and we probably back off. That's not a good look.
Speaker 1: And you know is everybody is reporting to the point
Speaker 1: of giving me a headache. Old John Bolton is probably
Speaker 1: getting in the presidency here saying we gotta whack him
Speaker 1: and whack him hard. Otherwise they're the rest of the
Speaker 1: world's gonna walk all over us. Far Strong and Jetty